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Boy, talk about trading headaches. Larry Stone:

The Seattle Mariners have found a way to get rid of one of their last lingering problems. According to major-league sources, the club is on the verge of trading Carlos Silva, who still has two years remaining on the four-year, $48 million contract given him by former general manager Bill Bavasi before the 2008 season, to the Cubs in exchange for outfielder Milton Bradley.

--snip--

I understand why the Mariners are making this move -- Silva has absolutely no role on the team any more after two disastrous seasons and little hope for a turnaround. He went 4-15, 6.46 in 2008, and was 1-3, 8.60 in eight games in '09, spending most of the year on the disabled list. Bradley, at least, is healthy and can be very productive when he's focused and happy. They have faith that manager Don Wakamatsu will be able to foster a good relationship with Bradley, as Texas manager Ron Washington did, and that he will contribute to an offense that needs what Bradley, at peak performance, can offer.

Worst case, they can always cut him -- the M's probably weren't going to get anything from Silva any way, so that money was lost regardless. Best case, they have a motivated, resurrected offensive performer to stick in the middle of their lineup. The Cubs had been trying all winter to trade Bradley, talking most seriously with Tampa Bay and Texas, but to no avail -- until now.

Brilliant. Again.

Jack Zduriencik, I mean. The Mariners, at little or no additional financial expense, have traded a player who might be quite useful for a player who almost certainly will not be useful. Yes, baseball's a funny game. Silva's still a relatively young man, and might again pitch effectively someday. But considering that Silva's been terrible in each of the last two seasons, and that Bradley was great in 2008 and decent in 2009, doesn't this seem like an incredibly lopsided deal, talent-wise?

There's only one thing I don't quite get ... Where is Bradley going to play? We know he's best suited to DHing, because of the injury-prone nature of his physiology. But the Mariners already have a DH, a 40-year-old man named Junior. Now, 40-year-old Junior shouldn't play much because he's not much good anymore. But one wonders what will happen if Bradley's not healthy enough to play left field.

Anyway, that's a better problem to have than spending another $25 million on Carlos Silva.

There's nothing worse than a braggart. Remember that, when you're clicking your little links and whatnot ...

* Cliff Lee apparently wanted to remain a Phillie, and seems a little hurt that he won't. Crashburn Alley says we shouldn't feel too sorry for Lee.

* As Joe Sheehan notes, the biggest story about the big trade has flown almost completely under the radar. The big story is that Roy Halladay left a huge amount of money on the table to pitch for the Phillies.

* Wait a minute? Some idiot rated Corey Koskie ahead of Justin Morneau? Yeah. Some idiot really did that.

* Well, it's officially official: 2009 is the Year of the Career Achievement Award. First Derek Jeter is Sportsman of the Year, and now Mariano Rivera is Pro Athlete of the Year? In a year in which he didn't appear on a single Cy Young ballot? Hey, watch out for Andy Pettitte; there are still nearly two weeks to go in the year!

* Jason Rosenberg asks an interesting question: Why didn't the Yankees simply keep Hideki Matsui? He signed with the Angels for roughly the same money as the Yankees will pay Nick Johnson.

* For a preview of what I'm going to write about Tim Raines in a couple of weeks, here's Mr. Posnanski.

* Just in case you haven't checked out Page 2 lately, you really should read Jim Caple's story about regular guys who love Hall of Fame candidates.

* Finally! The truth about Abner Doubleday.

Courtesy of the L.A. Times' Dylan Hernandez, a hot little rumor:

The Dodgers have started exploring a possible trade with the Cincinnati Reds for pitcher Aaron Harang, according to multiple baseball sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the talks.

--snip--

The Reds are asking for one or two players on the Dodgers' major league roster in return.

The Dodgers would want the Reds to pay for a portion of the $15 million Harang would be guaranteed if he is traded.

Harang is owed $12.5 million in 2010 and has a $12.75-million club option for 2011 with a $2-million buyout. If Harang is traded, the option would become a mutual option worth $14 million and the price of the buyout would increase to $2.5 million.

If this is real, you have to admire Ned Colletti. There aren't many general managers who would happily trade for a pitcher who's 12-31 over the last two seasons.

Harang's better than 12-31, though.

When you look at the last few years, you see a considerable decline in durability. After averaging 226 innings per season from 2005 through 2007, Harang pitched 184 innings in 2008 and just 162 innings in 2009. But he was knocked out last August by appendicitis; before that he was heading for 33 or 34 starts (and it's highly unlikely that he'll have another appendix removed).

So if history's any guide, Harang is a good bet for 200 innings in 2009.

What else has been "wrong" with Harang?

He's been unlucky, and he's been in the wrong ballpark.

When I say unlucky, I mean seriously unlucky.

Harang's got a 4.52 ERA over the past two seasons. That's not good, but it should have led to a 12-31 record. Harang clearly hasn't gotten much run support, and I suspect he's not had much bullpen support, either.

Harang's given up (roughly) a .330 batting average on balls in play, in those two seasons. That's a huge BABiP, and almost certainly won't happen again.

His stuff is basically what it's always been, and Harang continues to strike out three batters for every batter he walks (among the 41 pitchers with at least 300 innings over the last two seasons, Harang's strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks seventh).

Harang is a fly-ball pitcher, which has lately been a double-whammy because 1) more of his fly balls than usual have carried the fence, and 2) his home ballpark is the homer-happiest ballpark in the National League.

Add it all up, and what do you have? A pitcher who, removed from his bad luck and a bad (for him) ballpark, should make a perfectly good replacement for the departed Randy Wolf.

If you're a Dodgers fan, you should hope that this is more than just a rumor.

In the wake of the news that Mike Gonzalez and the Orioles have agreed on a two-year, $12 million contract, let's revisit R.J. Anderson's take on the prospective deal:

Bobby Cox rode Gonzalez pretty tough this season; using him in a career high 80 games (previous high: 54) as he pitched 74.1 innings (54) and threw 1,307 pitches. This from a guy who threw just over 1,830 pitches in the previous three seasons combined – most of which he missed with injuries. As for the money itself, it’s no slam dunk. Gonzalez has never been worth $6M in free agent dollars throughout his career and while he should receive a boost from increased leverage, I guess I’m more concerned about Gonzalez’ health than anything. Factor in the loss of next year’s second round pick and I’m not sure I completely approve of giving decent – not great, mind you – cash to a injury prone reliever coming off his heaviest workload.

Gonzalez figures to be the Orioles’ closer which raises the question: do the Orioles really need a closer? There’s some nice talent in Baltimore, and sure, they have the cash, so why not, right? Plus, there’s an outside chance the Orioles could really make a run in 2011, which would make all of this butter.

Three additional points:

1. I'm generally opposed to non-contending teams giving up much of anything for relief pitchers. They are, in my opinion, the last thing you worry about.

2. That said, the Orioles haven't given up anything yet, except their second-round draft pick next June. They haven't spent a single dime of that $12 million yet, and won't begin spending until next April, when Gonzalez begins drawing his paychecks. Gonzalez is under contract, and the Orioles could wind up paying him just $4 million before trading him in July for two prospects worth $6 million.

3. No, the Orioles aren't likely to make a run in 2011. Not in that division. But it's not inconceivable, is it? Maybe their talented young starting pitchers and outfielders all come together at once, and things are exciting in August of 2011. Far stranger things have happened.

On balance, I think it's difficult to justify Gonzalez's contract for one big reason: last season was the first of his career in which he threw more than 54 innings. If there's a better than 50/50 chance of Gonzalez breaking down at some point while he's in the Orioles' employ, he's not worth $12 million. And I think he's going to break down.

I couldn't figure out why the A's would so eagerly trade Brett Wallace, an outstanding young hitter who they just got from the Cardinals last summer. Well, to the rescue rides Susan Slusser. It was all about defense:

Oakland obtained Wallace in the high-profile Matt Holliday deal with St. Louis in July, and though the team has no reservations about his bat, Wallace's defense was another matter. The A's apparently came to doubt the stocky Wallace's ability to play third at the big-league level, and the team already has plenty of young first basemen, including Daric Barton, Chris Carter and Sean Doolittle.

In addition, the team recently acquired third baseman Jake Fox from the Cubs, and he is not considered a top-notch defensive player, either. Therefore, Oakland is planning to move second-base prospect Adrian Cardenas to third base full time, especially with Jemile Weeks, the team's top pick in the 2008 draft, performing well at second.

Until now, I wasn't even "on" Doolittle, but he's impressive, too. Oddly impressive. The 41st pick in the 2007 draft, Doolittle opened last season in Double-A and struggled. Nothing to worry about, really; he was only 21. But the A's didn't just not worry ... they pushed him to Triple-A, where he thrived.

Which isn't to say he's ready for the Big Show. That was only 28 games in Sacramento. But Doolittle does belong squarely in the group of young players who might well be good enough to play first base for the Athletics in 2011.

Cardenas is like Doolittle, but different. Like Doolittle, Cardenas is still quite young. Like Doolittle, Cardenas split last season between Double- and Triple-A. The difference is that Cardenas was impressive in Double-A before struggling in Triple-A. Still, he's just as much a prospect (if not more, since he's a year younger than Doolittle).

Essentially, the A's had too many young infielders and not enough young outfielders. So they traded a young infielder (or DH, eventually) for young outfielder Michael Taylor, who's not quite as young but has been far more impressive in the minors.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays already had plenty of young outfielders; and maybe this means that Randy Ruiz will finally get a real chance in the majors. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays really are piling up a lot of guys at the wrong end of the defensive spectrum. In addition to Wallace and Ruiz, third basemen Edwin Encarnacion can't field a lick at third base, and corner outfielders Travis Snider and Adam Lind are little better.

Wallace might become a good first baseman. But keep an eye on the Blue Jays' defense. As they try to get back into contention, it's going to be an issue.

In the wake of the news about commissioner Bud Selig's "special committee," Thomas Boswell's got a number of suggestions -- 10 of them, in fact. Let's go through each of them (and I'll paraphrase for brevity's sake), with my comments in italics ...

* Ban mound visits by managers and coaches.

Definitely worth considering. Nobody pays their money to watch middle-aged men waddling to the mound for rote, usually pointless conversations.

* Enforce a time-limit on mid-inning pitching changes.

Of course.

* No more "God Bless America" during the seventh-inning stretch.

Easiest fix of all. One ode to patriotism per game is plenty, especially now that we're eight years removed from 9/11.

* Give the hitter his intentional walk without having to actually throw four balls.

I would just as soon eliminate the intentional walk entirely, but if we have to have them, let's at least save a bit of time.

* Require every relief pitcher to face at least two hitters.

Yes, it seems sacrilegious. So was the designated hitter, and we've come to accept that (well, most of us have, anyway).

* Don't award home field in the World Series to the league that wins the All-Star Game.

Sorry, but I don't see the problem here. Home field is a small thing, competition-wise, but really does make the All-Star Game more interesting.

* No more World Series games in November. Don't delay the beginning of the season to accommodate the World Baseball Classic, build fewer off days into the postseason (the way it used to be), and schedule the occasional split doubleheader.

Yes, yes, and yes one more time. Oh, I don't mind starting the season a week late. I enjoy the WBC as much as the next guy. But if they're going to take away a week in April, they simply have to compensate somehow.

* Expand the use of video review, at least in the postseason.

Obviously. There simply isn't any justification for the continuing presence of manifest mistakes by the umpires on the sport's biggest stage.

Boswell's big finish:

With its new committee and Selig's wide "best interests of the game" powers, the sport can take a broad and deep look at itself. Other constituencies, especially the union, will have their proper say in time. But for the first time in baseball, a group of the most respected people in the sport is looking squarely at the game's biggest problems. And they have the commissioner behind them.

Well, we'll see about that. My gut tells me that all those respected people will have a real tough time coming to any sort of consensus on most of the issues. And, of course, coming to some sort of consensus is just the first step. Then you have to consider the commissioner, and then he has to convince most of the owners, and then everyone has to convince the players.

But it's harder than that, even. It's one thing to convince the players; it's quite another to convince them to agree to do something. That falls under the heading of "everything's a negotiation," regardless of how much everyone might agree about it.

So, we'll see. Boswell would like to see sweeping changes. So would I. But we should probably be thrilled with a few baby steps.

Phil Rogers goes straight for the gut:

Is the designated hitter rule finally on its way out with Major League Baseball?

To be fair, it's premature to ask such a potentially provocative question. But thanks to Commissioner Bud Selig's decision to turn recommendations for on-field matters over to a newly created version of the NFL's Competition Committee, the DH rule could face its first real threat since the American League accepted it permanently for the 1976 season, after a three-year experiment that began as a way to create run scoring and increase attendance.

--snip--

Selig said he will "be guided by what this committee comes up with" on matters including "scheduling, postseason format, umpiring, pace of play and instant replay." The commissioner did not mention the DH rule, but Cardinals manager Tony La Russa and longtime Braves executive John Schuerholz, who joined Selig on a conference call, both listed it as the one thing they potentially would change if they could.

--snip--

Forced to build deeper rosters because of the DH rule, the AL has had an upper hand against the NL in recent years -- a trend borne out in results from the All-Star Game, the World Series and in interleague play. AL teams have been bigger spenders than their NL counterparts.

I'm always amused by the suggestion that the American League is vastly superior to the National League because of the designated hitter. If so, can someone explain to me why it took 30-odd years for this "DH Effect" to show up on the field? The DH does a number of things -- it makes the game more exciting, and it allows a few sluggardly sluggers to extend their careers -- but there's no reason to think it affects the balance of power between the leagues.

Anyway, the DH isn't going anywhere. The American League owners don't want it gone, and neither does the Players Association (because the MLBPA is run by the veterans, and the rule benefits veterans most of all).

Selig's been criticized for the composition of the committee: "four current managers, four current or former general managers and four ownership representatives, along with MLB official Frank Robinson and journalist/baseball fan George Will" ... but not a single current player, which seems odd when you consider that very little can be done without the assent of the players.

I'm inclined to cut Selig a little slack on this one. I don't know that many veteran players would have been interested in participating -- they tend to have busy winters, with hunting trips and vacations to Shangri-La and whatnot -- and without veterans ... Well, you just can't throw Evan Longoria and Justin Upton into a room with Tony La Russa and John Schuerholz.

Anyway, it's not like this committee's going to do anything. Major League Baseball -- and by extension, Commissioner Bud -- took some withering criticism this fall about postseason scheduling, lousy umpiring, and the lack of video review in big games. So, Selig turned to every politician's favorite crutch: the committee. And the result will probably be the usual result of a committee's work: nothing.

We can only hope that the committee's work is made public, so we'll at least have something to talk about.

You ever wonder what it would be like if, whenever an agent or a general manager said something for public consumption, there was a translator standing next to him? Or maybe closed-captioning when they're on TV? I don't think it will become a regular feature in this space, because I seem to lack the attention span for regular features. But here's Theo Epstein discussing the apparent departure of Jason Bay, followed by my version ...

"[The media] has done a great job of speculating, putting the pieces together this winter, so I'll let you continue to speculate. I don't want to say that the door is officially closed on one player out there that's a free agent. But Jason, obviously, in a year and a half here, did an outstanding job for us," Epstein said.

"That's a trade we would make again any day of the week. Whichever team does sign him, they're getting a quality person and a quality player."

Translation:

To get Bay, we traded Manny Ramirez, who we couldn't stand, and a couple of young players who haven't done anything in the year-and-a-half since. For us, he played like a $15 million player while we payed him about half that. So, yeah: We would do it again.

We just didn't want to pay him $16 million in 2012 for being a $12 million player. If he wants to come back and play for $12 million, we'll try to figure something out. But yeah, he's definitely gone. And quite frankly, we couldn't be more relieved.


You're welcome.

The Minnesota Twins, with a $100 million payroll? They're not far off, and that's before looking up Joe Mauer forever. As Nick's Twins Blog suggests, the balance of financial power in the American League Central seems to be shifting quickly. Nick's big finish:

So, the Twins are taking on salary, spending big on international talent, going over-slot to sign draft picks, and likely are on the verge of doling out one of the biggest contracts in league history to retain their star player? All while the rest of the division is pawning off expensive stars and selling out the present for the future in order to cut costs? Is this some sort of parallel universe?

Longtime fans from around these parts can be excused for reacting with some confusion, but what we're seeing are the benefits associated with the move to a new park. I'd posit that these drastic increases may also be attributable in part to a less frugal philosophy held by ownership now that power has shifted from Carl Pohlad -- who passed away early this year -- to his sons.

--snip--

Right before our eyes, we're seeing the transformation of a franchise. Long known as the division's "Little Engine That Could," the Twins are beginning to emerge as financial heavyweights in the AL Central. As the holidays approach, now seems as apt a time as any for fans to appreciate this unfamiliar feeling.

That's the trick, right? The Twins don't really have to compete, financially, with the Yankees and the Red Sox. They just have to compete with the White Sox and the Indians, and their new ballpark -- not to mention a pretty solid market, in the same neighborhood as Seattle and Phoenix -- should allow them to do that for the foreseeable future. The Twins have a great reputation for drafting and development, and they deserve it. If they can marry that up with good financial judgment -- and I have to say, their record in this area is not strong -- they could become a divisional powerhouse.

Yes, Johnny Damon says he has to think about moving on. But no, he's not really going anywhere. Not according to Craig Calcaterra, anyway:

My kids always come back and eat their vegetables. Johnny Damon will come back and take his two year deal. I let my kids douse the veggies in ranch dressing to make it more palatable. I suppose the Yankees will build in some elaborate vesting option to do the same for Damon. But really: my kids ultimately have to do what I say, and Damon ultimately wants to stay in New York. Yankees and I have all the cards in our respective transactions.

Makes sense to me. The Yankees still need at least one bat, and Buster says they're not going after Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. So who does that leave? Future Hall of Famer Johnny Damon.

Just kidding (sort of ... look at his career numbers and run some career projections in your head).

Today's links are the most important things you'll click this week ...

* I don't link capriciously. I believe in my links. Which isn't to suggest that all links are created equal. There are some links that deserve more attention than I can give them, and here's one of them. I can't support Kevin Appier's Hall of Fame candidacy -- sorry, Rany -- but this might be the single best way of looking at Cooperstown credentials that I've ever seen.

* On the other hand, I won't argue that you have to read this ... unless you've got a Hall of Fame ballot, in which case I beg you to read it.

* wezen-ball digs up (among other things) Bill James' first appearance in The Sporting News, nearly 35 years ago. And even then, it was just so Jamesian.

* Baseball Digest Daily's Bill Baer reviews Jack Zduriencik's track record, and it's one impressive track record. Eventually the M's GM is going to pull off a clinker, but he's got a big head start.

* You have to wait a while for the payoff. But not too long, and this fellow Carson Cistulli's Sportswriting Manifesto makes a fair bit of sense.

* With Hideki Matsui becoming an Angel, Ken Belson writes about the off-the-field ramifications of Godzilla leaving Gotham.

* What to make of Aaron Hill? You might be shocked at the list (courtesy of Geoff Young) of players who Hill out-homered last season. What will Hill do in 2010? As Young notes ... Who knows? Hill hit two home runs in 2008 and 36 home runs in 2009. We don't really have any tools that tell us what he's going to do in 2010.

* Lots of choice comments in Lynn Henning's take on the Tigers' various closer candidates.

Sometimes the math is so obvious, it's almost blinding. Case in point:

Say goodbye to Jason Bay and hello to Mike Cameron.


Bay

Cameron

Now sit down, because guess who has contacted Bay? Yes, the Yankees.

The Red Sox last night agreed to terms with Cameron on a two-year deal, according to a source with knowledge of the negotiations. Multiple reports pegged the deal at roughly $15.5 million.

The acquisition of the 36-year-old former Gold Glover likely means the end of Bay’s short tenure in Boston, though a baseball source last night said the Sox have yet to inform him he’s no longer in their plans.

--snip--

Wherever Bay ends up, it’s almost certainly not going to be Boston. His replacement, Cameron, has said he’s willing to shift from center to left despite playing only three games there in his career. Adding him to Jacoby Ellsbury in center and J.D. Drew in right would give the Red Sox outstanding outfield defense.

Cameron hit 24 homers in ’09 for the Brewers. The lifetime .250 hitter is nowhere near as productive as Bay, though he’s nowhere near as expensive.

He certainly isn't as expensive. As for productive ... Well, that depends on how you define "productive."

Over the last two seasons, Cameron produced 8.4 wins above replacement.

Over those same two seasons, Bay produced 6.4 wins above replacement.

The Red Sox are going to pay Cameron roughly half of what someone's going to pay Jason Bay.

We try to make these things so complicated. But they're not, really. The Red Sox have figured out how to simplify everything. And I just can't wait to read all the columns in the Boston newspapers questioning Theo Epstein's intelligence and ownership's commitment to winning ...

Improbably enough, the Dodgers have unloaded Juan Pierre. Because, you know, the White Sox didn't already have enough questionable outfielders. Anyway, whatever happens there should be some good fodder for the jokesters. Big League Stew:

The trade, however, also opens the door for a lot of great nicknames for the South Siders' outfield when it happens to be comprised of Pierre, former Los Angeles teammate Andruw Jones and expensive Blue Jays castoff Alex Rios. "The Discounted", "The Ned Colletti Memorial Outfield" and "Where's Vernon Wells (notes) When You Need Him?" happen to be my early favorites. (Feel free to submit your favorite nicknames below.)

All three outfielders were previously signed to big money contracts that they didn't live up to, though the White Sox are only responsible for the full weight of Rios' deal. If Rios and fourth musketeer Carlos Quentin don't live up to their potential, there will be a lot of room for ridicule -- particularly from a North Side fanbase that already had its fill of Pierre.

As for the Dodgers, Colletti was able to turn Pierre's Ramirez-replacement stint last summer into a maneuver that got rid of half a $18 million bench player. The return might not be that great, but it's sadly all about small penny-pinching victories for Colletti these days.

Hey, this could work.

What's more likely is that the White Sox will have one of the ugliest outfields in the American League. Rios is coming off a lousy season, while Pierre has zero power and Jones doesn't look anything like the player who was, just three years ago, heading for the Hall of Fame.

Throw in Carlos Quentin, and Kenny Williams has collected four outfielders who have been good in one of the last two seasons, but not in both. Like I said, this could work ...

Rob Neyer shares his thoughts on the deal involving Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Neyer also expects the Mariners to be very competitive in 2010.

It's not often that I'm nonplussed by the things that baseball teams do, or are said to be thinking about doing. I've seen a lot of strange things in my time. Still, Joe Strauss' story about the Cardinals' efforts to sign Matt Holliday does give me pause.

The Cardinals have intensified discussions with the lead representative for free agent Matt Holliday and on Monday "tweaked" a standing offer they hope will allow them to retain the left fielder for at least eight seasons.



Holliday
General manager John Mozeliak and agent Scott Boras revisited the framework of the Cardinals' lengthy proposal first tendered last Wednesday. Though both parties refuse to discuss details, the deal is worth around $16 million a season, making it easily the most lucrative deal ever offered by the Cardinals.

--snip--

Unimpressed by the Cardinals' initial offer, Boras may be increasingly open to an opt-out within the contract. He included just such a clause in the Texas Rangers' 10-year, $252 million deal for Alex Rodriguez. Traded to the Yankees in 2004, Rodriguez exercised the opt-out clause following the 2007 season, eventually re-signing with the Yankees. Boras is also seeking full no-trade protection for Holliday, which would maximize an opt-out's leverage.

Hmmm, let's see here ... eight years, roughly $130 million (so far), an opt-out clause and "full no-trade protection" ... Gee, there's no way this won't work out beautifully for the club, huh?

Seriously, this is why baseball men shouldn't be allowed to watch baseball games. Because sometimes they actually believe what they're seeing. Holliday is an excellent baseball player. He is not the player everyone saw playing for the Cardinals last August and September. He is not the player whose batting line in those months was exactly as good as Albert Pujols'.

In fairness, I do believe the Cardinals know that Holliday isn't as good as Pujols. But if these figures being bandied about are correct, it seems they think Holliday is nearly as good as Pujols.

He's not. There's a top tier of superstars, a tier that includes Pujols and Joe Mauer and Chase Utley and Hanley Ramirez.

There's a second tier that includes Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman and Chone Figgins.

And then comes Holliday and Kevin Youkilis and Carl Crawford.

It's not that Holliday's not worth $16 million. He is. Quite a bit more, in fact. It's that Holliday's not worth $130 million. It's just too much risk for too many years, with too few escape hatches, for a team that doesn't play in the Bronx.

I understand why the Cardinals believe they have to keep Pujols, no matter the cost. But do they really have to take the same approach with a third-tier superstar like Holliday? I mean, no matter the cost?