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Whether or not you like the one-and-done format of the wild-card game, it does present a great opportunity to second guess everything the managers do, from roster management to pitching changes, bunts and, of course, when to use your closer.

Tim Kurkjian has five key questions for the game, but here some other key components on how this game may play out.

• Obviously, to a large degree the outcome rests on the starting pitchers, even knowing quick hooks are in order. The Reds' three best hitters are Joey Votto, Shin-Soo Choo and Jay Bruce, all left-handed, so that's why Clint Hurdle is going with Francisco Liriano, who held lefties to a .131/.175/.146 batting line. He allowed just two extra-base hits to left-handers, both doubles. Liriano had one blow-up 10-run start against the Rockies, but he's been very consistent all season. He had just one other start where he allowed more than four runs -- and that was against the Reds. Still, to beat Liriano, it's likely the Reds' right-handed batters will have to do some damage.
• Meanwhile, Mat Latos was the likely starter for the Reds until he admitted he had pain in his elbow, diagnosed as bone chips. So Johnny Cueto draws the start. He's made just two starts since missing three months with an oblique strain, similar to the injury that knocked him out of Game 1 of last year's Division Series. He pitched well in those two starts, but they came against the Astros and Mets, so it's hard to read too much into those. While he's made just 11 starts this season, don't forget how good this guy has been: 2.61 ERA over the past three seasons. Cueto throws a fastball, slider and cutter, but his big pitch is a changeup that induces a lot of groundballs. Over the past two seasons, batters are hitting just .217 against the changeup (and .097 in 2013 in 62 at-bats). He threw 99 pitches his last start, so he's ready to go as deep as Dusty Baker needs.
• This is going to be an armchair manager's dream because there are going to be a ton of potential matchups that could come into play. For Hurdle, he's gone with a nine-man pitching staff. Gerrit Cole is the long man/extra-inning guy, with lefties Justin Wilson and Tony Watson available to face the Choo/Votto/Bruce section of the lineup. Wilson and Watson can both get righties out, so Hurdle doesn't have to treat them as LOOGYs. The right-handers are Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli, plus Vin Mazzaro, Bryan Morris and Jeanmar Gomez. Basically, assuming Liriano goes even just five innings, Hurdle should be able to get the matchups he wants in the late innings, as Baker doesn't really have many pinch-hitting/platoon options on his bench.
• You could argue that Chris Heisey should be in the starting lineup over Choo, who hit .215 with no home runs against lefties. He did post a .347 OBP, but part of that was HBP-induced (he was hit by a league-leading 26 pitches) and Liriano didn't hit a batter. I realize Baker isn't going to suddenly change, but the numbers say this is a bad matchup for Choo.
• The Reds are carrying four left-handers in the bullpen -- Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall, Manny Parra and Zach Duke -- and 10 pitchers overall (Mike Leake is the long man/extra-inning guy). The extra lefties give Baker the ability to match up with Pedro Alvarez, Justin Morneau and Garrett Jones, all of whom have big platoon splits. Alvarez and Morneau will start with Jones coming off the bench. But Baker has to be worry about getting too cute here. Hurdle won't hit for Alvarez, but Gaby Sanchez is a platoon bat for Morneau and Jose Tabata is another right-handed bat. Keep in mind the Pirates are carrying an extra position player -- they have three catchers in Russell Martin, John Buck and Tony Sanchez -- so Hurdle has a deeper and more usable bench.
• As home team, the Pirates have an advantage in using the closer in a tie game. If Baker waits to save Chapman for a save situation, he may never get him in the game. Of course, this doesn't have to be an advantage for the Pirates. Baker doesn't have to wait use Chapman until the Reds take the lead. Look at what happened to the Braves last year: Craig Kimbrel had maybe the greatest closer season of all time but didn't get in the game until it was already 6-3 in the ninth. In the meantime, the Cardinals scored two runs in the seventh inning (some shoddy defense hurt, but Kimbrel could have been used to potentially get out of the inning).
• Billy Hamilton versus Martin. The rookie speedster is on the roster. Martin threw out 40 percent of basestealers.

Prediction: Liriano is tough, the Pirates have the ability to counteract Baker's moves, the bullpen does the job and Chapman doesn't make an impact. Pirates 4, Reds 2. (And I didn't even mention Andrew McCutchen!)

OK, so you had Ryan Braun, Melky Cabrera and Starlin Castro on your fantasy team. How do you recover from that?

You start up a postseason player pool, of course, and earn some redemption. You can devise your own rules, but here is a scoring system Tristan Cockcroft set up for an office pool here: 1 point for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a home run, 1 for an RBI, 1 for a run scored, 1 for a walk, 1 for a hit by pitch (batter), 2 for a stolen base, 4 for a win, 8 for a save, 1 per pitching out (so 3 per inning), minus-1 for each hit allowed, minus-1 for each walk allowed, minus-1 for a hit by pitch (pitcher), minus-3 for an earned run, and 2 for a pitcher strikeout.

Anyway, Eric Karabell has his postseason player rankings here. Obviously, you're banking on players you pick to go to the World Series, so don't choose Dan Uggla if you think the Braves are going to get swept in the Division Series. Eric has Miguel Cabrera as his No. 1 player, which I disagree with, primarily because Cabrera just hasn't hit with much power in September (two extra-base hits). His questionable health status also makes it less likely the Tigers advance.

Eric reports that Ryan Vogelsong was the top player last year under the above format; pitchers tend to do well in that scoring system, so he has Adam Wainwright and Clayton Kershaw ranked second and third. That makes sense. Since I'm predicting the Pirates to win it all (why not!), I guess I'd have A.J. Burnett, Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez high up on my list. Hey, you never know!

Last winter, Uni Watch broke the story about MLB's new batting practice caps. Now it's time for another scoop: Uni Watch is providing an exclusive first look at MLB's 2014 batting practice jerseys.

First, some quick background: MLB tends to come up with new BP cap and BP jersey designs for all 30 teams on three-year cycles. The cap and jersey cycles are staggered, so every team debuted a new BP cap design this season, but used the same BP jersey design from the previous two years. Similarly, teams will continue to use their 2013 BP cap designs for another two seasons, but it had been widely expected that we'd see new BP jersey designs for 2014. That expectation was recently strengthened when the 2013 BP jersey designs were offered at a hefty discount -- a fairly obvious sign that MLB was clearing out the old inventory in anticipation of the new.

MLB usually doesn't unveil new BP jersey or cap designs until well after the World Series, and sometimes not until close to the start of spring training. But Uni Watch has obtained a digital copy of the spring 2014 catalog that MLB's uniform outfitter, Majestic Athletic, has sent to its authorized retailers. The catalog includes the new BP jersey designs. Interestingly, the catalog wasn't leaked to Uni Watch by an inside source. It was simply posted to a publicly accessible web page by an online sportswear retailer and has been available for anyone to download for weeks now -- if you know where to look.

A spokesperson for Majestic, when asked about the jersey designs, declined to comment and instead referred the question to MLB, where a spokesman confirmed that the designs are legitimate.

OK, enough preliminaries. What do the new BP jerseys look like? They're based on this design template (click to enlarge):



As you can see, it's a fairly basic template without too many bells and whistles. As had been expected, it matches the template used for the 2013 All-Star Game BP jerseys. (As a side note, the jersey appears to have a new version of the Majestic Athletic sleeve logo. This new logo appears throughout the catalog and will presumably be showing up on game jerseys next season as well.)

But while the basic template is straightforward enough, some teams have used it in unconventional ways. Here's a look at all the designs (click to enlarge):



Those images are fairly small, but they provide enough visual information for us to pick out several notable developments:

• In a move that's sure to raise eyebrows (or maybe ruin eyeballs), seven teams -- the Braves, Indians, Rockies, Royals, Marlins, Rays and Nationals -- are going with two-tone designs, with one color on the front of the jersey and a different color on the back. (Interestingly, the Rangers, who can never seem to decide whether their primary color is blue or red, are sticking with one color -- blue -- on the front and back.)

• Five teams, including a few who you might not expect, are going with separate home and road jerseys: the Red Sox, Reds, Twins, Yankees and Padres. In addition, the Brewers have a separate throwback design.

• The Indians' jersey features the team's block-"C" logo -- the latest example of the club distancing itself from its Chief Wahoo logo, which is apparently being eased into semi-retirement.

• The Pirates' design features black lettering on a black background, similar to the NBA's "Big Color" jerseys from last Christmas.

• Good to see that the Astros' design includes tequila sunrise side panels, just like their 2013 BP jersey.

• The Yankees, obviously, don't put names on the back of their BP jerseys. But it's interesting to see that nine of the other 29 teams are also going nameless. This is understandable during spring training, when rosters are huge and it can be a hassle to add lettering to dozens of players' jerseys. But it's surprising that so many teams would stick with the nameless format during the regular season, especially because the whole point of BP jerseys is to move merchandise. You'd think a BP jersey with a player's name would be a more saleable item, no?

Most of the rest is about what you'd expect -- nothing earthshaking, nothing scandalous. Still, it's an unexpected treat to get a sneak peek at next season's designs, right? Now we just need someone to upload next year's game uniforms.

Paul Lukas wonders how many other uniform catalogs are floating around out there, if only we knew where to look. If you liked this column, you'll probably like his Uni Watch Blog, plus you can follow him on Twitter and Facebook. Want to learn about his Uni Watch Membership Program, be added to his mailing list so you'll always know when a new column has been posted, or just ask him a question? Contact him here.

Here's the link to Tuesday's chat wrap.

Heading into the final few games of the season, I heard an interview with Joe Maddon where he was asked what it will take for the Rays to get through these next few games and into the postseason.

Part of his response: "You need your best players to perform." (Or something of that ilk.)

The two best players in this tiebreaker game were David Price and Evan Longoria, especially with Yu Darvish having pitched Sunday for the Rangers and Adrian Beltre playing on a sore hamstring. We spend a lot of time these days breaking down everything that goes into a baseball game, and that's fun and informative and interesting, and dissecting all the numbers and strategies and potential strategies are part of what makes baseball so appealing to many of us.

But sometimes the analysis is simple. Sometimes you just need your best players to perform. Price was outstanding, Longoria homered with one of his three hits, and the Rays beat the Rangers 5-2 to keep their season alive.

For Price, he exorcised some personal demons of sorts. He had defeated the Rangers just once in 11 career starts, including three postseason starts. His career ERA in Texas was over 10.00 in four games. He wasn't necessarily dominant, striking out just four in throwing a complete game. He had pretty good command of his fastball, however, and basically challenged the Rangers to hit it. He threw fastballs on 73 of his 118 pitches, and while the Rangers swung and missed at just one fastball all game, they didn't do any severe damage against it, or at least not enough damage. (Price actually induced just four swing-and-misses the entire game.)

The Rangers didn't exactly throw out a strong lineup. With Jeff Baker sidelined with a sports hernia, Ron Washington's starting nine included three lefties -- Price held left-handed batters to a .195 average with just two home runs -- and two of those, Leonys Martin and Mitch Moreland, are pretty weak against lefties. Nelson Cruz hadn't played in two months due to his suspension, Beltre hurt his hamstring on Sunday and Elvis Andrus had just 25 extra-base hits on the season. It was a game where the Rangers shouldn't have expected to score many runs.

It didn't help that Andrus got picked off in the first inning and Ian Kinsler got picked off in the third. Washington had apparently stressed to his club to play aggressive, but in the end those were two costly mistakes.

Once the Rays took a 4-2 lead, the key at-bat against Price came in the eighth after Kinsler doubled down the third-base line with one out. Price was over 100 pitches, and you could have expected to see Joel Peralta in the game to face the right-handed threesome of Andrus, Alex Rios and Beltre. Peralta was warming up, but he can be a little home run-prone (seven home runs) and Maddon might have been thinking of the four outings in September where Peralta allowed two or more runs.

Sometimes you just go with your best.

Andrus laid down a near-perfect bunt down the first-base line on an 0-1 pitch, but Price made a terrific play (especially for a lefty), flipping the ball with his glove to first to get Andrus. Rios grounded out to shortstop to end the threat. What if Andrus had hit away? We'll never know, which is the beauty of "what if" in baseball. With a little more cushion after Sam Fuld created a run in the top of the ninth, Maddon let Price begin the bottom of the ninth. Why not? One-two-three, game over.

As for Longoria, he lined a single to right-center in the first inning off rookie lefty Martin Perez to send Wil Myers to third; Myers would score on Delmon Young's sac fly. In the third, Perez faced Longoria with two outs and a runner on first. Longoria took an inside 94 mph fastball and drilled it into the wind tunnel in right-center, just clearing the fence for a two-run homer.

I can't really fault Washington too much in this game. His bullpen had been worked hard in the final few days (although he inexplicably used closer Joe Nathan for a fourth straight game on Sunday to close out a 6-2 lead), and while you could argue for a Matt Garza or Alexi Ogando earlier in the game, Garza hasn't been good and Ogando started on Friday.

Perez settled down after the Longoria home run, and Washington correctly yanked him with one out in the sixth when Longoria came up again. Ogando just didn't have much in this game. Longoria doubled off him, and with two outs, pinch hitter David DeJesus doubled him home (you could argue that Neal Cotts should have been brought in there).

In the end, the Rays are the better team. The AL East was easily the best division in the majors this year and the Rangers made it this far in large part due to their 17-2 record against the lowly Astros, an opponent the Rays didn't get to face 19 times.

Now the Rays get the Indians, and while the game will be in Cleveland, the Rays have to like their chances with the underrated Alex Cobb, who went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA in 22 starts, on the mound. Cobb throws an excellent changeup that dives away from left-handed hitters -- they hit .214/.245/.325 off it -- but he changed the grip on his curveball last summer and it's given him a second out pitch alongside the changeup. Cobb learned the grip from former teammate James Shields and batters have hit .260 off it, but with just one home run in 100 at-bats.

The Rays will face another rookie in hard-throwing Danny Salazar, who has made 10 career starts, but averages 96 mph on his fastball and has reached 100. The Indians have held him to tight pitch counts, going more than 89 pitches just once and held under 80 in five of his starts, so Terry Francona will likely tell Salazar to cut it loose for as long as he can go and turn it into a bullpen game early on.

Thanks to Price, Maddon will also enter with a rested bullpen, so there should be plenty of pitching changes and possible pinch-hitting moves to discuss and argue about.

Of course, it could be that it will come down to the best player. The Indians are good and they're hot, having won 10 in a row, but Longoria will once again be the best player in this game.

FYI: He's hit 22 of his 32 home runs off fastballs.

The Atlanta Braves finished with the third-highest strikeout rate among all 30 major league teams at 22.6 percent. The two teams to either side of them -- Astros and Twins ahead, Mets and Mariners behind -- all had terrible seasons. The Braves are also the only club with three players over the 150-strikeout threshold (Dan Uggla, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton) and they were the only club to do it last year as well. Much will be made of the Braves' strikeout tendency as we head into the postseason, and they certainly do strike out a lot, but does it matter?

I looked at hitter strikeout rate data among all postseason teams over the last 10 years. Last year, all four teams to advance to the League Championship Series had a strikeout rate that ranked in the bottom third of the league. The Giants, who won it all, had the fourth-lowest strikeout rate. In 2011, the two teams with the lowest strikeout rates -- the Cardinals and Rangers -- met up in the World Series. But is that a trend?

 

Event       Average Rank

Lost ALDS	19

Lost NLDS	14

Lost ALCS       21

Lost NLCS	17

Lost WS         17

Won WS          20

Division Series teams averaged a strikeout rate ranking in the middle of the pack, 14 for the NL and 19 for the AL. Championship Series teams averaged a slightly better strikeout rate rank, between 17 and 21. The World Series loser also averaged a rank of 17. The World Series winner averaged the lowest rank on the list at 20.

Of the 10 World Series winners since 2003, eight of them have had a strikeout rank in the lower half of the league. Six of them were in the lower one-third. The only team to win the World Series with an offense that struck out at a top-10 rate was the 2004 Red Sox (18.3 percent, sixth).

There are other factors involved in winning and losing, of course, but why have teams that strike out less managed to succeed a little more, particularly recently? Offense declined after the 2009 season, with the runs per game average dropping from 4.61 to 4.38. Hits have declined from 8.96 per game in 2009 to 8.67 hits per game in 2013. The biggest changes have occurred in walks and strikeouts. In 2009, the average offense walked 3.42 times per game and struck out 6.91 times per game. This year, the average offense walked 3.02 times per game and struck out 7.54 times per game.

With strikeouts up, the rate of balls in play has gone down. When those balls have been put in play, fielders have been converting them into outs at a very high rate. Major league defenders have compiled an aggregate .985 fielding percentage, the highest in baseball history. Fielding percentage is far from a perfect statistic, but we're also seeing a wave of great defenders lately, such as with Andrelton Simmons, Manny Machado and Carlos Gomez. The increase in defensive shifts has also helped teams turn more balls in play into outs.

So, baseballs are being put in play less often, and when a ball is put in play, it is more often turned into an out for the defense rather than a hit for the offense. A strikeout means (A) a ball isn't being put in play, creating a chance for a misplay; and (B) no baserunners are advancing. Factor in that with walks down, that means there is less likely to be a runner on base when there is a hit. In the playoffs, when you usually see above-average pitching staffs facing above-average offenses, this looms even larger since runs are at a premium. Teams reliant on power -- which tends to yield higher strikeout rates -- become gamblers, hoping the likes of Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright have bad games where home runs can be hit.

Will the Braves fail in the postseason specifically because they strike out too much? Probably not, but if manager Fredi Gonzalez was given a magic wand that could turn his offense into an equally competent team that relies on putting the ball in play more, based on recent trends, he would probably choose to alter his offense.

Bill Baer writes for Crashburn Alley and is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog.

The Houston Astros were not very good in 2013. In fact, they were only the fourth team since World War II to lose more than 110 games in a season.

The Astros weren’t very good in 2011 or 2012 either. They have lost 106 or more games in each of the last three seasons.

But none of this is news. And why dwell on the negative? Sure, the Astros lost 111 games, but they also won 51 games against major league teams. Let's look back at the positive, happy and excited quotes that followed each of Houston's remarkable 51 wins this year.

Know hope. And admire the Astros for making it through another season without giving up.


Win 1: 8-2 vs. Rangers, March 31
"To sit at 1-0 right now feels pretty darn good, and we've just got to go back out there on Tuesday and play some more baseball." -- pitcher Bud Norris

Loss 1
Loss 2
Loss 3
Loss 4
Loss 5
Loss 6

Win 2: 16-9 at Mariners, April 9
"We showed today what the team really has. I guess the guys wake up today. I look at it that way." -- second baseman Jose Altuve

Win 3: 8-3 at Mariners, April 10
"Everyone's confidence was still rolling into today." -- first baseman Chris Carter

Win 4: 5-0 at Angels, April 12
"[Bud Norris] is a No. 1 starter and he's pitched a lot of big games. I think his best years are definitely ahead of him. He's growing up right in front of our eyes, and it's a pleasure to see." -- manager Bo Porter

Loss 7
Loss 8
Loss 9
Loss 10
Loss 11

Win 5: 3-2 vs. Indians, April 19
"I'm very proud of the guys tonight." -- Porter

Loss 12
Loss 13
Loss 14

Win 6: 3-2 vs. Mariners, April 23
"Every win is big." -- reliever Hector Ambriz

Win 7: 10-3 vs. Mariners, April 24
"I wanted to be a professional ballplayer and play at the highest level and being an Astro is just the icing on the cake." -- outfielder Robbie Grossman

Loss 15
Loss 16
Loss 17
Loss 18

Win 8: 9-1 at Yankees, April 29
"I know they can do it. You're just waiting for it to happen night in and night out and be consistent. That's why we stay positive, because we know it's in there." -- Porter

Loss 19
Loss 20
Loss 21
Loss 22
Loss 23
Loss 24

Win 9: 7-6 vs. Angels, May 7
"Losing two tough games to Detroit last series and getting swept by them, just winning this game I think helped the team a lot." -- Carter

Win 10: 3-1 vs. Angels, May 8
"[Jimmy Paredes] is a guy that we know can add some excitement to our ballclub. It's a combination of speed, it's power. I think this guy; he's turned the corner and allowed his ability to play. It's a joy to watch." -- Porter [Paredes finished the season with one home run and four stolen bases in 48 games.]

Loss 25
Loss 26
Loss 27
Loss 28
Loss 29
Loss 30

Win 11: 7-5 at Tigers, May 15
"Sometimes we pitch good but we don't hit. Sometimes we hit but we don't pitch good. Sometimes we put it together like today. We've been scoring some runs. It takes things like this to turn around some things." – catcher Carlos Corporan

Loss 31

Win 12: 4-2 at Pirates, May 18
"Even though we've had our share of bumps and bruises, we're going to hit a stretch where we start playing well and put together a string of games like we played tonight. It's a tremendous group of guys in that clubhouse." -- Porter

Loss 32

Win 13: 6-5 vs. Royals, May 20
"I'm trying to figure some things out and be more consistent. I've been able to get some big hits, and hopefully, the average will be there by the end of the year." -- third baseman Matt Dominguez, who finished the season with a .241 average

Loss 33

Win 14: 3-1 vs. Royals, May 22
"The bullpen had been taxed for a while, but the starters have definitely hit their groove." -- Porter

Loss 34
Loss 35
Loss 36

Win 15: 3-2 vs. Rockies, May 27
"I think these kind of wins are definitely something that can catapult you forward from just an energy standpoint. Finding a way as a team and to come out on top, that momentum can carry over." -- Porter

Loss 37

Win 16: 6-3 at Rockies, May 29
"That was good baseball there." -- Porter

Win 17: 7-5 at Rockies, May 30
"Normally when you make four errors, especially in a ballpark like this, you're probably looking at a bunch of crooked numbers. We did a good job of minimizing the damage." -- Porter

Win 18: 6-3 at Angels, May 31
"We're just trying to ride this out. We're going out there and playing hard-nosed baseball. We're playing good defense, our pitching's been outstanding and we've been getting big hits when we need them." -- outfielder Brandon Barnes

Win 19: 2-0 at Angels, June 1
"This group has come together. Day in and day out, these guys are picking each other up -- from the bullpen to the bench players -- and the coaching staff has pushed that out of us. Everybody is picking up their end of the bargain, and it's been pretty good to see." -- Norris

Win 20: 5-4 at Angels, June 2
"It says that we can beat anybody in this league. If we can compete with the Angels, then we can compete with anybody." -- Ambriz

Win 21: 2-1 at Angels, June 3
"I feel like we're playing really good baseball. We had been playing good baseball, but now we're starting to win those crucial break points. ... I look at the talent in that room. I know the potential we have. You're starting to see we're coming together." -- Porter

Loss 38

Win 22: 11-7 vs. Orioles, June 5
"It's a blast. We all pull for each other. We have a pretty good group. I think we all get along very well and we genuinely pull for each other, so when someone else has success it's like everyone is just enjoying it." -- designated hitter Carlos Pena

Loss 39
Loss 40
Loss 41
Loss 42
Loss 43
Loss 44

Win 23: 6-1 at Mariners, June 12
"It was definitely good to see the guys break out and put together some good at-bats." -- Porter

Win 24: 2-1 vs. White Sox, June 14
"That is what you call straight effort baseball. Guys just legging out infield hits and giving it everything they have hustling on the bases. Just an all-around tremendous job." -- Porter

Win 25: 4-3 vs. White Sox, June 15
"I'm extremely happy." -- Porter

Win 26: 5-4 vs. White Sox, June 16
"The starting pitching has been tremendous." -- Porter

Loss 45

Win 27: 10-1 vs. Brewers, June 18
"I think this is what we're capable of doing. I'm not talking about scoring 10 runs, but putting nice run support up for our pitchers. If they go and do what they are supposed to and give us a quality start then we have a chance to win. Today is one of the days that we show our potential as a team. It definitely feels good to see it actually happen." -- Pena

Loss 46

Win 28: 7-4 vs. Brewers, June 20
"What a ballgame. What a game. What a great homestand. I thought we were in every single game. This is a lot of momentum moving forward." -- Pena

Loss 47

Win 29: 4-3 at Cubs, June 22
"They keep battling, they keep fighting and we find a way to either get ourselves back into the game or make it a ballgame every night." -- Porter

Loss 48
Loss 49

Win 30: 4-3 vs. Cardinals, June 26
"For us to come out and battle and hang with them ... it's reassuring and it's good for the morale around here." -- catcher Jason Castro

Loss 50
Loss 51
Loss 52
Loss 53
Loss 54

Win 31: 4-1 vs. Rays, July 3
"Pure joy." -- Norris [The Astros traded Norris to the Orioles 28 days later.]

Loss 55
Loss 56

Win 32: 9-5 at Rangers, July 6
"One of the goals, along with winning the World Series, is playing in the All-Star Game. It's still kind of surreal." -- Castro

Loss 57
Loss 58
Loss 59

Win 33: 2-1 at Rays, July 12
"My whole family (was) here. I've got about 15 to 20 friends. My girlfriend's here. It's crazy." -- rookie pitcher Jarred Cosart on his major league debut

Loss 60
Loss 61
Loss 62
Loss 63
Loss 64
Loss 65

Win 34: 5-4 vs. A's, July 23
"It speaks to the resilience of that group in there. Every once in a while good things like this happen because you put yourself in position when you just keep fighting." -- Porter

Loss 66
Loss 67
Loss 68

Win 35: 8-6 at Blue Jays, July 27
"It was a good win for a ballclub that obviously has played well but not well enough to get over the hump." -- Porter

Loss 69
Loss 70

Win 36: 11-0 at Orioles, July 31
"What a tremendous job. It's amazing what happens when you throw strikes and don't put people on base." -- Porter

Loss 71
Loss 72
Loss 73
Loss 74

Win 37: 2-0 vs. Red Sox, August 5
"We have some guys who can create problems." -- Porter

Loss 75
Loss 76
Loss 77
Loss 78
Loss 79
Loss 80

Win 38: 5-4 at A's, August 13
"It's a big boost for the club and a big boost for the bullpen to get some big outs." -- Porter

Win 39: 2-1 at A's, August 14
"We've been playing pretty good. Things are going our way now. It's our turn." -- Corporan

Loss 81

Win 40: 8-2 at Angels, August 16
"We're playing hard and having fun." -- Carter

Loss 82

Win 41: 7-5 at Angels, August 18
"At some point, we're going to start to get our breaks. We're swinging the bats real well, and we're getting good starting pitching." -- Porter

Loss 83
Loss 84
Loss 85

Win 42: 12-4 vs. Blue Jays, August 23
"It's good when you have days like this. Everyone seems to be clicking on all cylinders. These are fun games. Everybody's upbeat and happy about this, and you'll sleep well at night when you have games like that." -- outfielder L.J. Hoes

Win 43: 8-5 vs. Blue Jays, August 24
"It's been a little while since we had a winning series at home, so that's been nice." -- Castro

Loss 86

Win 44: 10-8 at White Sox, August 26
"I couldn't be more proud of them." -- Porter

Loss 87
Loss 88
Loss 89
Loss 90
Loss 91

Win 45: 2-0 vs. Mariners, September 1
"Outstanding with a capital O." -- Porter

Loss 92
Loss 93

Win 46: 6-5 vs. Twins, September 4
"That's winning baseball." -- Porter

Win 47: 3-2 at A's, September 5
"These guys came into this series knowing what's at stake baseball-wise. [The A's] are fighting for a playoff spot, and obviously this is where we want to be as an organization. I think it's a great atmosphere for our players." -- Porter

Loss 94
Loss 95
Loss 96

Win 48: 6-4 at Mariners, September 9
"Young team learning how to win games, we did that today." -- outfielder Trevor Crowe

Win 49: 13-2 at Mariners, September 10
"That's the kind of night you wish you could have every night. When everyone's clicking on all cylinders." -- Hoes

Win 50: 6-1 at Mariners, September 11
"Definitely we want to finish strong. All the guys are coming together." -- pitcher Brad Peacock

Win 51: 9-7 vs. Angels, September 13
"I think this is the best complete baseball we've played all year from a starting-pitching standpoint, to an offensive standpoint, to hitting with men in scoring position, situational hitting, the bullpen coming in in tight situations and getting those crucial outs. As far the team goes, I think this is the best all-around baseball we've played." -- Porter

Loss 97
Loss 98
Loss 99
Loss 100
Loss 101
Loss 102
Loss 103
Loss 104
Loss 105
Loss 106
Loss 107
Loss 108
Loss 109
Loss 110
Loss 111

So we ended up with the quite the finish here. Lots of bad baseball down the stretch. Lots. Remember: The top 10 picks are protected if you sign a free agent who is given a qualifying offer. Plus, the worse you finish in the overall standings the more money you get to spend in the draft. Yay, incentivized losing!

1. Astros: 51-111
Just in case they were worried about the Marlins catching them, they lost their final 15 games to ensure the No. 1 pick for the third draft in a row.

2. Marlins: 62-100
Kudos to Henderson Alvarez for his final-day no-hitter. In fact, the Marlins swept the Tigers in that season-ending series and won five of their final six, allowing just seven runs over those six games.

3. White Sox: 63-99
Tried hard to catch the Marlins, going 7-21 in September and losing five of their final six. Went 2-17 against the Indians, although no truth to the rumor that the Indians will share their playoff shares with the White Sox.

4. Cubs: 66-96
Ended up tied with the Twins, but get the higher pick based on 2012 record. And boy did they fight hard to get that fourth pick. Lost six of their final seven and 12 of their final 15.

5. Twins: 66-96
Lost 10 of final 11. Too bad they beat the Tigers in extra innings on Sept. 23 or they would be drafting one slot higher. In Sunday's finale, ensured defeat with three errors. In the sixth inning. Nice job, Twins!

6. Mariners: 71-91
Went 6-14 over their final 20 games to slide from a bubble team securely into a top-10 position. Lost their final eight extra-inning games, proving there's an art to successful tanking. Namely: A bad bullpen helps.

7. Phillies: 73-89
It looked like they would jump out of the bottom 10 but then lost nine of their final 11. No wonder Ryne Sandberg got the job for next year! The final game was huge, as the Phillies came up big with a 12-5 loss to the Braves.

Now, this is where things get really interesting. We had a four-way tie for spots 8 through 11. The tiebreaker is 2012 record. So ...

8. Rockies: 74-88
Those two one-run wins over the Dodgers on Saturday and Sunday didn't help, but the tiebreaker gives them the edge. Not that they'll be pursuing Robinson Cano or anything.

9. Blue Jays: 74-88
How nervous was GM Alex Anthopoulos watching the Jays nearly rally from a 7-0 deficit on Sunday? They did beat the Rays twice on the final weekend but still lost 12 of their final 19.

10. Mets: 74-88
The Mets had the most to lose if they finished out of the top 10, since they presumably could be pursuing some of the big free agents this winter. Luckily the offense came through with three straight 4-2 losses to the Brewers (before winning the season finale 3-2).

11. Brewers: 74-88
Well, this is what a 15-12 record in September will do to you. No Kyle Lohse for the Brewers this offseason!

12. Padres: 76-86
Yes, Padres fans, there were 11 teams worse than yours.

13. Giants: 76-86
The Giants went 10-5 over their final 15 to at least avoid becoming just the second World Series winner (after the 1997 Marlins) to finish in last place the next season. So there's that.

14. Angels: 78-84
A 21-7 stretch in August/September ruined any chance the Angels had of finishing with a top-10 pick. So if they went to throw $250 million at Cano, it will cost them their first-round pick.

There were some moments there when it appeared the Tampa Bay Rays would complete a mini collapse of sorts, especially when manager Joe Maddon lost his cool as the Rays were starting to melt down in the seventh inning and he had an Earl Weaver moment, getting ejected after arguing with plate umpire Paul Schreiber following a trip to the mound.

The Rays had entered the weekend in control of their own wild-card destiny, but while the Indians and Rangers were beating the Twins and Angels, Tampa had lost twice to Toronto. A six-run first inning made it appear it would be an easy win on Sunday, but the Rays saw a 7-0 lead slide to 7-3 in the sixth, then 7-4 in the seventh and then 7-6 in the eighth as closer Fernando Rodney gave up two run-scoring singles and then a walk that loaded the bases. But he struck out Moses Sierra with two outs and got through the ninth and now the Rays will play the Rangers in the tiebreaker game on Monday night to move on to the wild-card game.

On paper, the pitching matchup goes to the Rays, with David Price starting against Martin Perez. The Rays set up their rotation back in early September to line up Price to start the wild-card game or, if necessary, this game. The Rangers had to scramble at the end and, needing a win on Sunday, started ace Yu Darvish, so the start here falls to the young left-hander.

Before we get to Price's checkered big-game history -- especially against the Rangers -- I'm left with two thoughts on this year's wild-card race.

First, the Rays are arguably better than the Indians or Rangers. By that, I mean the AL East was clearly a tougher division than the Central or the West. AL East teams went 242-188 outside the division, the Central went 210-220 and the West went 197-233. If the Rays had played 19 games against the Astros and Mariners instead of the Orioles and Blue Jays, they would have likely won a few more games.

But them's the breaks, I guess, and strength of schedule matters only for NCAA tournament seedings. Plus, the Rangers are hosting the game because they did win the season series, 4-3.

The second issue is the decision the Rays made to start Wil Myers in the minor leagues and not recall him until June 18. While the Rays can claim they wanted Myers to work on cutting down his strikeouts, we also know this move is something the Rays have done in the past to save money. By delaying Myers' call-up date, they saved not only a season on his free agency but also postponed his initial eligibility for arbitration by a year. That will save them millions down the road, but maybe it will end up costing them a playoff berth this year.

From Opening Day until June 17, Rays right fielders hit .246/.327/.427, not awful but below Myers' .295/.353/.482 line. Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist played a lot out there early on, so in essence the Rays were playing guys like Ryan Roberts and Sam Fuld early on instead of Myers. I think it's fair to suggest the Rays would have at least one more win if Myers had been called up six weeks earlier.

OK, so what about Monday's game? While Price is understandably the guy Maddon wants to give the ball to, it's also true that the Rangers sort of have the whammy on him. Price is 1-4 with a 5.98 ERA in eight regular-season starts against Texas and is 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA in three postseason starts. Those are the only three playoff starts of Price's career, and remember also that on that memorable final day of 2011 he started and dug a big hole for the Rays when he allowed six runs in four innings to the Yankees. So he has a checkered past in big games.

After missing all of June with a triceps injury, Price returned and had the best stretch of his career, eight starts where he went 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA, a 44-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and had three complete games where he threw fewer than 100 pitches. He's allowed two runs in each of his past four starts, but hasn't had quite the same efficiency. What he's done, however, is keep the ball in the park as he's given up just two home runs in his past 11 starts.

In a move to perhaps counteract Price's dominance against left-handers, the Rangers announced Nelson Cruz will be activated for Monday's game. They didn't say whether he would be in the starting lineup, but you have to think Ron Washington may take that chance even though Cruz hasn't played a major league game since Aug. 4.

The past week or so, Washington has gone with Craig Gentry in left, Leonys Martin in center and Alex Rios in right, with David Murphy, Jeff Baker and others rotating through the DH slot. Martin hasn't hit lefties (.231/.286/.300), but an outfield of Gentry/Martin/Rios is the best defensive alignment the Rangers can throw out there. Baker will be in the lineup somewhere, considering he's slugged .667 against left-handers (10 home runs in 105 at-bats). An infielder by trade, Baker has started 15 games at first base. If I'm Washington, I keep the outfield intact, play Baker at first, bench Mitch Moreland and use Cruz as the designated hitter.

(Update: Baker has a hernia and has been ruled out from playing in the field the past few weeks. Plus he hasn't homered since August, so we'll likely see Moreland at first but maybe still see Cruz at DH.)

Perez doesn't have Price's résumé, but he has a 3.05 ERA over his past 11 starts. The peripherals aren't quite as good, with just 51 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings. However, Perez has a great changeup that has actually made him more effective against right-handed batters. Maddon is pretty limited in his lefty-bashing options at the plate. You may see David DeJesus, who has delivered some big hits down the stretch, but you're unlikely to see Matt Joyce, who hit .167 against lefties.

Washington, of course, has a deep bullpen so he'll have the luxury of a quick hook and the ability to mix and match with righties and lefties. Remember, expanded rosters are in play since this is simply Game No. 163 of the regular season. While Perez has been solid of late, I don't think Washington should play around unless Perez is absolutely dealing; a quick hook should be in order. On the other hand, in sweeping the Angels, Washington did use Tanner Scheppers and Joe Nathan all four games and Neal Cotts in three. Not that Scheppers or Nathan will be unavailable, but it probably means Washington is even more unlikely to be a little creative and maybe stretch those two for four or five outs instead of three.

Given where the Rays were a week ago, I feel like more pressure is actually on them. The Rangers won their last seven just to get here and have to feel good just to have one more game. If the Rays lose, they'd become the first team since the 2002-03 Mariners to miss the playoffs two straight years while winning 90-plus games, so they face the frustration of another excellent season that falls just short of the postseason.

I don't see Price going the distance, so it becomes a battle of the bullpens in the late innings. Advantage, Rangers. I'll say Texas 4, Tampa Bay 3, with Fernando Rodney taking the loss in the bottom of the ninth.

We interrupt your wild-card races to give you Henderson Alvarez and one of the strangest celebrations you'll ever see.

The Miami Marlins right-hander struck out Matt Tuiasosopo to end the top of the ninth -- completing nine no-hit innings against the Detroit Tigers. But it wasn't -- yet -- a no-hitter. The Marlins hadn't scored a run and a no-hitter isn't official unless it comes in a complete game.

Ask the great Pedro Martinez. He never threw a no-hitter in his career but in 1995 with the Expos he pitched nine perfect innings against the Padres. But the game was tied through nine innings. Bip Roberts led off the bottom of the 10th with a double and Martinez lost his perfect game and no-hitter (at least he'd get the win).

So Alvarez watched the bottom of the ninth from the dugout and then the on-deck circle, his moment of fame perhaps resting on the Marlins' ability to push across a run (although with just 99 pitches it's likely he would have come out for another inning). Giancarlo Stanton singled with one out and the Marlins eventually loaded the bases with two outs, Greg Dobbs facing Luke Putkonen, who had already thrown one wild pitch in the inning.

Putkonen threw a hard-breaking curve that dived low and in toward Dobbs, catcher Brayan Pena was a little lazy getting down to block it and Stanton raced home with the winning run as Alvarez, who was on deck, was mobbed by his teammates in foul territory along the third-base line. A great moment for Alvarez and the Marlins' fans.

It was sort of reminiscent of the perfect game Mike Witt threw for the Angels against the Rangers on the final day of the 1984 season, except that game was between two teams counting down their hours until the first round of offseason golf. We don't have pitch counts for that game, but it was played in a brisk 1 hour, 47 minutes, so I'm guessing there may have been a few aggressive approaches at the plate. (The only other no-hitter on the final day was a combined four-pitcher no-hitter by the A's in 1975.)

The Tigers, however, are heading to the postseason. Even though their Division Series doesn't start until Friday they did sit several regulars, including Miguel Cabrera, Austin Jackson and Torii Hunter, but it was a decent lineup out there. Still, give Alvarez credit for his efficient four-strikeout, one-walk affair. He threw 66 of his 99 pitches for strikes, throwing his fastball 66 times all told. He's a guy who throws harder than his strikeouts would indicate, averaging 94.1 mph on his fastball against the Tigers and topping out at 96.9 mph. But he struck out just 57 in 102 2/3 innings for the Marlins this season. The scouting report when he was with Toronto was the fastball was too straight and he didn't have a put-away breaking ball.

The interesting thing about Alvarez is that he changed his approach in the 17 starts he made with the Marlins. In 2012, he threw 46 percent four-seam fastballs and 29 percent two-seam fastballs. This year, he threw 56 percent two-seamers versus 25 percent four-seamers, while mixing in his slider 15 percent of the time. The net result was huge: Not more strikeouts, but after allowing 29 home runs for the Blue Jays in 187 innings, he surrendered just two with the Marlins. There may be a degree of luck there as his overall fly ball rate was basically the same; last year they left the park, this year they didn't, but perhaps better movement on the two-seamer helped, as well.

Anyway, he remains an intriguing arm, especially if he can develop a change or curveball to offset the fastball-slider combo. While unlikely to develop into an ace, he's a guy who could slot into the rotation nicely next season after Jose Fernandez, Nate Eovaldi and Jacob Turner.


As for the Tigers, they were no-hit on Sunday, scored one run in 10 innings on Saturday and just two on Friday in getting swept by the 100-loss Marlins. Even though the games didn't mean anything, it's not how you want to head into the postseason. They did hit .270 in September -- fourth in the majors -- but their power disappeared as they hit just 16 home runs in 26 games after hitting 37 in July and 38 in August. This is a team that doesn't manufacture runs with speed, so it relies on the long ball -- and Miguel Cabrera -- to generate offense. With Cabrera hobbled in September, the Tigers averaged just 3.7 runs per game after averaging more than five per game the previous two months.

You don't want to read too much into those September numbers, but I'd be concerned if I were a Tigers fan. If Cabrera can't generate any power -- and he had just two extra-base hits in September -- somebody else needs to step up.

I did my American League All-Star team yesterday. Here's my National League squad. A few more tougher calls in the NL.

Catcher: Yadier Molina, Cardinals (.319/.359/.477, 12 HR, 80 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Two questions: Is Molina a legitimate MVP candidate and how will he fare in the voting? Sure, he's a strong candidate, although I have Andrew McCutchen as my clear No. 1 guy. Due to his relatively low runs plus RBIs total (he has 68 runs scored), Molina would certainly be an unconventional MVP candidate. Wins Above Replacement accounts for some of Molina's defense -- such as throwing out runners -- but can't measure some of the intangibles, such as the confidence he gave to the young St. Louis starters. Molina's offense numbers are similar to last year, when he finished fourth in voting, so I wouldn't be surprised if he jumps up to second this season.

First base: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks (.302/.401/.553, 36 HR, 124 RBI, 7.1 WAR)
Goldschmidt or Joey Votto? It's not quite as simple as Goldschmidt's 51-RBI advantage as both put up similar numbers otherwise, with Votto having the edge in on-base percentage (.436) and Goldschmidt in power (36 home runs to 24). Both were extremely durable -- Goldschmidt has missed two games, Votto zero -- and solid defenders. The one big difference is an advanced metric called Win Probability Added, a category Goldschmidt led all NL position players in, thanks in part to his .350 average in high-leverage situations and nine home runs in late and close situations (second-most in the majors to Chris Davis). I'm confident Goldschmidt is the right choice here.

Second base: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals (.320/.394/.484, 11 HR, 78 RBI, 6.7 WAR)
An easy choice as Carpenter leads the NL in runs, hits and doubles while ranking in the top 10 in numerous other categories. I'm guessing Molina garners more MVP support, but Carpenter is just as worthy to finish in the top five.

Third base: David Wright, Mets (.308/.393/.516, 18 HR, 57 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Pedro Alvarez leads the NL with 36 home runs and has knocked in 100 but a .233 average and sub-.300 OBP means he created a ton of outs to generate those runs. Ryan Zimmerman waited too long to start hitting. Chris Johnson hit .321 for the Braves. None were above-average defenders. So almost by default I'll go with Wright, who easily has the highest WAR even though he missed 50 games.

Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons, Braves (.244/.292/.390, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 6.5 WAR)
I've been raving about Simmons all season so I can't change now. Troy Tulowitzki was great once again and relatively healthy (125 games), although he hit 61 points higher at home. Hanley Ramirez was the best on a per at-bat basis but played just 86 games. Ian Desmond flew under the radar year for the Nationals. But Simmons is my guy, even with that sub-.300 OBP. His defense was that good.

Left field: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies (.302/.367/.591, 26 HR, 70 RBI, 5.1 WAR)
Starling Marte had an excellent all-around season (41 steals, great defense) for the Pirates and Matt Holliday was solid for the Cardinals. Gonzalez's season was similar to Wright's -- if he'd remained healthy, he'd be the obvious choice, but he missed 50 games. Unlike Tulo, he actually hit better on the road, so it's not a Coors-inflated season. I'll go with CarGo just barely over Marte.

Center field: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (.317/.404/.508, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 8.2 WAR)
Carlos Gomez would be an MVP candidate if he had better teammates. Shin-Soo Choo gave the Reds exactly what they needed, a leadoff hitter who got on base. But this was McCutchen's season as he often carried a mediocre Pittburgh offense and hit .339/.441/.561 in the second half, helping keep the Pirates in the division title race. He's the likely MVP winner and not a "weak" MVP, as some have speculated. His WAR is higher than the past three NL MVPs, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and Votto. He may not drive in 100 runs or score 100 (he's at 97), but it was the best all-around season in the league.

Right field: Jayson Werth, Nationals (.318/.398/.532, 25 HR, 82 RBI, 4.8 WAR)
A loaded position, and that's with Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton missing significant time. Jay Bruce, Yasiel Puig, Hunter Pence and Marlon Byrd all have their supporters (and Gerardo Parra leads in WAR). The knock against Werth, like Wright and Gonzalez, is that he missed significant time (129 games). But Bruce has a .329 OBP. Puig didn't get called up until June and Pence's monster September (11 HR, 29 RBI) came after the Giants had long been eliminated and arguably against dubious September pitching.

Starting pitchers: Clayton Kersaw, Dodgers (16-9, 1.83 ERA, 8.0 WAR); Cliff Lee, Phillies (14-8, 2.87 ERA, 7.2 WAR); Jose Fernandez, Marlins (12-6, 2.19 ERA, 6.3 WAR); Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (19-9, 2.94 ERA, 6.2 WAR); Matt Harvey, Mets (9-5, 2.27 ERA, 5.4 WAR)
Oh, Cliff Lee is still good. There were no shortage of top starters in the NL as 18 qualified starters have posted an ERA of 3.25 or under, the most since 17 did it in 1992 and 10 more than last year.

Left-handed setup guy: Luis Avilan, Braves (5-0, 1.55 ERA)
Part of Atlanta's dominant bullpen, Avilan fanned just 38 in 64 innings but allowed a .173 average and just one home run. He gets great movement on his two-seam sinking fastball, resulting in fewer K's but a lot of groundballs. Honorable mention to Pittsburgh's Justin Wilson.

Right-handed setup guy: Mark Melancon, Pirates (3-2, 1.39 ERA)
He had a couple rough outings in September, but was dominant throughout the season, first setting up Jason Grilli and then earning 16 saves when Grilli was injured.

Closer: Craig Kimbrel, Braves (4-3, 50 saves, 1.23 ERA)
He did blow four save chances and wasn't quite as statistically dominant as last season -- and still finished with 1.23 ERA and 50 saves.

CHICAGO -- The Pirates are getting to deal with many of the nice if unfamiliar problems associated with heading to the postseason. Like, who’s going to be on the roster? Or, who’s going to start which game? And even after manager Clint Hurdle tabbed veteran lefty Francisco Liriano to start the wild-card game against the Reds to neutralize lefties Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Shin-Soo Choo, with veteran righty A.J. Burnett on deck to start Game 1 of the NLDS if they advance, you might be asking, when will rookie Gerrit Cole’s turn come?



This isn’t merely about the cult of the new, the inevitable fascination that any top prospect generates with a big first season. In the past month, Cole has been hands-down the Pirates’ most effective starter, winning four of five turns, posting a rotation-best 1.69 ERA while allowing just 34 baserunners in 32 innings, whiffing 39 without allowing a homer. His ERA since the All-Star break (2.85) is also the rotation’s best. In the same time frame that 2013 All-Star Jeff Locke has pitched his way out of the postseason rotation, Cole stepped up and pitched his way into it.

Could it be standard-issue animus against relying on a rookie in the postseason? Hardly. Reflecting on his experience winning a pennant with the Rockies in 2007, Hurdle already knows he won’t have a problem counting on Cole when the time comes.

“I’m fortunate,” Hurdle said, “in the fact that in Colorado I actually had two rookies in the rotation in the second half of the season -- Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez -- and a rookie closer, Manny Corpas. That’s not the way you draw it up, but that’s the way we played it out there.”

It’s important to remember that Cole is barely more than two years removed from pitching for UCLA. While the Pirates didn’t opt for shutting Cole down after reaching some ideal workload a la Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals last season, it would be easy to forget how much he’s learning and adapting in just his second season as a pro.

“Cole has gained experience throughout the season,” Hurdle said. “It’s probably his finest hour right now, in terms of command, efficiency and endurance. We’ve worked him into a position where he doesn’t need to be taken out because of hard pitch count, season-long pitch count or inning count.”

What’s been especially remarkable about Cole since his call-up in June has been the way in which he’s been adapting to the league before the league had a chance to catch up with him. Before the season, scouting reports buzzed about his sharp slider as his key breaking pitch, and how effectively he used it to complement his high-90s heat. But that isn’t the guy the Pirates have been winning with down the stretch. The guy Pirates fans have quickly gotten familiar with throws a big-breaking curve that -- according to Baseball Prospectus’ PITCHf/x leaderboards -- generates a 43 percent whiff rate on swings, better than everybody in baseball not named Yu Darvish, Ivan Nova or Roy Halladay.

How did that happen, in an age when every top prospect is under the microscope for years? When we’re supposed to know everything about everybody from the moment they arrive? In part, Cole thanks another member of that same curveball whiff leaderboard, rotation mate Burnett.

“I started playing with it last year towards the end of the year,” Cole said. “I think my second day here, this guy [gesturing to Burnett] got ahold of me and started talking to me about it. I use a similar grip as A.J., but I don’t quite have as big hands as he does, so I can’t really get around it as much as he can, but that’s what I pretty much try to do, is copy him.”

Hurdle couldn’t be more pleased. “He had a curveball that might have been his fourth-best pitch coming in,” Hurdle said, “and it’s turned out to be his second pitch right now; he’s using that more than the slider. The slider, the fastball and the changeup were grouped up in a velocity package which was within 10-11 miles; that’s something hitters can hunt. Now, when he throws that slow breaking ball 15-16 miles slower [than his fastball], it quickens his fastball up.”

Something else Cole has figured out in-season since getting called up is how to bust a lefty with a breaking pitch low and inside -- something he’s picking up start by start, learning from his veteran teammates and doing more and more down the stretch.

“Part of it is he was watching other guys having success doing it,” Hurdle said. “Charlie [Morton] can throw the backdoor breaking ball, A.J. throws the backdoor breaking ball, so Gerrit knows it’s in play, knows it works, and he’ll see some guys do it in the same series right in front of him.”

Reflecting on what he’s learned and how it has changed his pitching within his first three months in the majors, Cole said, “A lot of left-handers have trouble with that ball down and in. It isn’t necessarily that I’m really trying to locate it down and in, it’s just that with the way it plays it’s much sharper when it gets to that side of the plate. I’m not 13 years into this thing where I can move that curveball around like A.J. can, so I just try to stay aggressive with it and try to finish it below the zone, whether it’s over the plate or inside. As long you speed 'em enough with the fastball, as long as you stick to your cheese and locate your fastball, you can put yourself into a position where you can throw your breaking ball and not worry about where it goes.”

Something else that Cole has had to adapt to is the Pirates’ readiness to shift their fielders around from batter to batter, but it’s something else he’s adjusted to already.

“I think in big situations, there’s always your generic theories to minimize things with guys in scoring position,” Cole said, “but for the most part, unless it’s in a key situation, I just try to pitch my game. Sometimes with a guy like [lefty Anthony Rizzo], maybe with runners in scoring position, it’s important to not allow him to just shoot one down the left-field line, it’s important to pitch to your defense. Maybe you give up a hard hit, but you know what, that’s why Neil [Walker] or Josh [Harrison] is playing in right field -- that’s what it’s for. I try not to pitch to it, but in certain situations you have to acknowledge where they’re at.”

So, he’s absorbing info from his veteran teammates before he’s gotten 20 starts into his big league career, his second-best pitch is something he picked up on the fly and he’s adapting to a new arsenal in-season that helps him neutralize left-handed hitters. Your typical rookie experience, right? Add that to one of the fastest four-seam fastballs in the league -- sitting just shy of 97 mph -- on top of a good changeup and the still-there slider, and you’ve got a package that nobody should look forward to facing, even as Cole gets used to putting it all to work in different situations.

Because that’s part of what’s going on: This is all new to Cole. Take his thought after having to work his way through a 34-pitch sixth-inning jam against the Cubs on a cold Wednesday night. Cole relished the lesson that one game provided -- for its postseason applications.

“It was definitely a challenge with the long inning and the cold weather, so I had to do some different things there. It was great to be able to learn from that, and take that into some meaningful games,” Cole said.

OK, so somebody’s certainly thinking ahead. So where does Cole fit into the postseason rotation picture? Before he’d made the decision to slot Liriano and Burnett up front in the postseason, Hurdle made no apologies for his “nice problem to have."

“All four of these guys are on as consistent rolls as they’ve ever been their last three starts,” Hurdle said. “Morton in particular, Cole too, but Liriano’s been so focused and determined, and A.J.’s been coming off some of his finest outings of the season. I just want to make sure that we don’t overcook this.”

Fair enough, but given how quickly Cole is transmogrifying into a dominant starter before our eyes, it may not be much longer before the simplest recipe for success will have Cole as its lead ingredient.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

It’s easy to observe that every game counts equally over six months’ worth of season, but the sense of the stakes comes into focus when it’s one-or-done territory. And it’s even more interesting to talk about because of what changes about a team within a season. No matter how canny your team’s general manager, no matter how impressive your collection of talent might be on paper, no matter how sharp a manager of a team that your man in the dugout might be, the team you hope to win with in April doesn’t often resemble what you can count on come October.

Take the Indians’ Scott Kazmir, a classic example of a spring flier made good. His victory over the Twins puts the Indians in the driver’s seat in a three-team race, the one wild-card contender that controls its own destiny on the season’s last day despite a rotation that ranks behind the Astros in quality starts, with a total that betters just two other AL clubs (the Blue Jays and Twins).

When he came to Cleveland, Kazmir was an ex-famous ex-prospect picked up on the off chance that he had something left in the tank to help out from the Indians’ fifth slot of their rotation. A classic no-risk addition, he was the kind of guy whom you could discard if he didn’t pay off on the low-stakes gamble that he could do something resembling the strikeout-per-inning southpaw who helped propel the Rays to their only pennant back in 2008.

The Rays, aggressive asset managers that they are, swapped him out the next summer, trading him to the Angels for a package that included a couple of present-day Rays (supersub Sean Rodriguez and lefty Alex Torres). By 2011, Kazmir was on the ropes with a back injury, a guy forced to make his comeback in the Atlantic League in 2012 after seeing his strikeout rate drop below six K's per nine. He was, at best, a long shot.

Some long shot. That spin in the indie leagues and a memory of what he’d been got him his spring invite to Cleveland’s camp, and during the course of the season he has come from fifth afterthought to key component on a team that’s a win away from October action. His fastball velocity, which had bottomed out into mid-80s territory in 2011, now sits at 92 and sometimes comes back up into the mid-90s he used to reach with ease. He’s also become more effective than ever before at generating more ground-ball outs.

As a result, Kazmir’s ERA since the All-Star break is a full run less than it was beforehand. In that time he’s striking out a man per inning again, something he hasn’t done in the major leagues since 2008. As his single-season career-best 3.43 xFIP from FanGraphs this year suggests, Scott Kazmir may be the best he has ever been, right now, exactly when the Indians need him to be.

Not everything has changed for Kazmir. Durability remains an issue for him: He has managed to turn over an opponent’s lineup three times in just five of his 29 starts this season. But on a staff that, since Justin Masterson left the rotation with an oblique injury, lacks an obvious second banana beyond Ubaldo Jimenez, Kazmir has been a godsend for the Tribe down the stretch, a piece almost as important to them as Jimenez’s big in-season turnaround.

Heading into Sunday’s action, rotation strength might seem like a key issue for all three wild-card wannabes struggling to reach the division series, because all three wild-card contenders are running their best starters out there on Sunday: the Rays with Matt Moore, then the Indians with Jimenez, and finally the Rangers with Yu Darvish. The odds of a tie-breaker game look pretty good. Say all three teams win on Sunday; will the Rays use David Price in their tiebreaker with the Rangers, instead of saving him for the wild-card fight with the Indians?

What Sunday's sunrise will give us, all of us, inside the dugouts, in the stands and in a living room to be named later, is scoreboard-watching agony that, for these three teams, distills the effort of the season’s six-month slog to a matter of minutes. Moving the game from one wild card to two has been a formula for late-season drama that might represent Bud Selig’s most lasting improvement to the game. If you’re going to have wild cards at all, this is the way you want them to wind up, with consequences and desperation and efforts that put a wild-card winner in a tough spot.

Because of their lack of rotation depth, you might think that the Indians don’t really have the kind of starting pitching that matches up so well with the other contenders. Is Kazmir, Zach McAllister and Danny Salazar a trio that makes up anyone’s answer for an ideal short-series rotation beyond Jimenez? No, but the Cardinals proved in 2011 that you can win a World Series without an ideal short-series rotation, and as the Giants showed last year with Tim Lincecum, sometimes having a former quality starter shunted into a middle-inning role can make a huge difference -- could that be Masterson this year?

We’ll see if that happens should the Indians get that far. Much like Scott Kazmir was in March, the Indians might be a long shot, but if recent history teaches us anything, it's that sometimes it's the long shots who come through, because they make real what they can be, instead of living down to what they were supposed to be.


Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Here are my choices for the 2013 American League All-Star team:

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Twins (.324/.404/.476, 11 HRs, 47 RBIs, 5.2 WAR)
There's not a real clear choice, as Mauer played just 75 of his 113 games behind the plate, but he's the best hitter among the catchers and threw out a league-leading 43 percent of base stealers. Carlos Santana has good offensive numbers, but he played a lot of first base and DH and struggled defensively. Jason Castro's fine season was buried in the Astros' awfulness, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia has hit .272, raising his average 50 points from last year, while bashing 40 doubles and 14 home runs. If he had played a little more behind the plate -- he started 95 games -- he might have been my choice.

First base: Chris Davis, Orioles (.287/.370/.637, 53 HRs, 138 RBIs, 6.7 WAR)
Davis is the easy choice in a weak year at first base in the AL. The only other two first basemen to slug .500 were Edwin Encarnacion, who spent a large chunk of his time at DH, and Brandon Moss, a platoon player. Davis joined Babe Ruth and Albert Belle as the only players with 50 home runs and 40 doubles in a season.

Second base: Robinson Cano, Yankees (.313/.383/.514, 27 HRs, 106 RBIs, 7.6 WAR)
In a year when so much went wrong with the Yankees, Cano was the one constant, missing just one game and putting up his usual excellent numbers. Now the Yankees have to decide exactly how much they're willing to pay for those numbers. Teams like the Dodgers and Nationals could pursue the free agent this winter.

Third base: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.347/.441/.637, 44 HRs, 137 RBIs, 7.1 WAR)
Despite the injury issues that have slowed him in September (.265, just two extra-base hits and seven RBIs), Cabrera remains the likely MVP winner, thanks in part to a .397/.529/.782 mark with runners in scoring position. It's a deep position with Josh Donaldson having his own MVP-caliber season, Manny Machado catching everything at the hot corner and Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre once again doing everything, but it's hard to deny Miggy's dominance with the bat.

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy, Orioles (.262/.305/.432, 25 HRs, 74 RBIs, 3.6 WAR)
There's not an obvious guy at the position. Hardy is good defensively and has power, but that .305 OBP lowers his offensive value. Yunel Escobar may have had the best year on defense, but a slow start dragged down his offense. Elvis Andrus plays great defense and has 41 steals but doesn't give you much at the plate. Jed Lowrie stayed healthy and hit but lacks range. In the end, I went with Hardy, who has played 157 games and gives you a little on both sides of the ball.

Left field: Mike Trout, Angels (.323/.431/.554, 26 HRs, 94 RBIs, 9.1 WAR)
OK, I cheated a little bit since Trout actually started more games in center than left. But the state of left field in the AL is pretty pathetic, with Alex Gordon and Michael Brantley the only other two rated as even 2.0 WAR players.

Center field: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox (.297/.355/.421, 8 HRs, 52 RBIs, 5.7 WAR)
Ellsbury also stole 52 bases in 56 attempts, the second-best percentage ever for a player with at least 50 steals. Orioles fans will argue for Adam Jones, who has 33 home runs and 108 RBIs, but he's drawn just 25 walks so his OBP is a mediocre .318 and his defense doesn't match Ellsbury's.

Right field: Shane Victorino, Red Sox (.297/.354/.456, 15 HRs, 61 RBIs, 6.2 WAR)
He's been solid offensively -- including hitting .303 and slugging .515 while having to bat right-handed against right-handed pitchers after a hamstring injury prevented him from batting left-handed. He has been terrific defensively with 24 Defensive Runs Saved, the sixth-best total in the majors at any position. Again, nobody with big numbers here on offense, especially with Jose Bautista's season-ending injury, but Victorino is a worthy selection.

Designated hitter: David Ortiz, Red Sox (.308/.395/.565, 30 HRs, 103 RBIs, 4.3 WAR)
At 37, he's still going strong with his seventh 30-homer, 100-RBI season. Hall of Famer? He's up to 431 career home runs and 1,429 RBIs.

Starting pitchers: Max Scherzer, Tigers (21-3, 2.90 ERA, 6.6 WAR); Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners (14-6, 2.66 ERA, 7.0 WAR); Chris Sale, White Sox (11-14, 3.07 ERA, 7.0 WAR); Yu Darvish, Rangers (13-9, 2.82 ERA, 5.7 WAR); Anibal Sanchez, Tigers (14-8, 2.64 ERA, 6.0 WAR)
Apologies to Bartolo Colon and Felix Hernandez, and even Clay Buchholz, who went 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 16 starts.

Left-handed setup guy: Neal Cotts, Rangers (7-3, 1.13 ERA)
Cotts was one of the great stories of the season. He hadn't pitched in the majors since 2009, having Tommy John and four hip surgeries in the intervening years. He pitched in 25 games for the Rangers in Triple-A last year and started there again this season before getting recalled. In 55 2/3 innings, he's allowed just eight runs and 35 hits while striking out 63.

Right-handed setup guy: David Robertson, Yankees (5-1, 2.07 ERA)
For those worried about replacing Mariano Rivera as Yankees closer, the bigger question may actually be: Who replaces Robertson as the eighth-inning guy?

Closer: Koji Uehara, Red Sox (4-1, 21 saves, 1.10 ERA)
Apologies to Kansas City's Greg Holland, who has a 1.23 ERA and 46 saves, and Texas' Joe Nathan, who has a 1.41 ERA and 43 saves. But Uehara, who began the year in middle relief, has put up one of the most dominant relief seasons ever, limiting batters to a .129 average with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 100-to-9.

The Pittsburgh Pirates' success this year has been analyzed from a variety of angles, and one of the more fascinating aspects of it -- at least for geeks like me -- is an enhanced use of infield shifts based on spray-chart data.

Of course, this kind of progressive thinking is often met with resistance from players, and not everyone loves this philosophy. In fact, A.J. Burnett was recently quoted in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review as saying, "I have a problem with (expletive) shifts."

There's a decent bit of irony here because no pitcher has benefited more from the Bucs' use of shifts than Burnett, who has been reborn in Pittsburgh over the past two seasons, and pitched one of the best games of his career on Friday night, shutting down the Reds over eight innings in a 4-1 victory. With the win, the Pirates are now one win away from hosting Tuesday's National League wild-card game.

Burnett needed just 99 pitches to get through eight innings, striking out six and walking just one. Perhaps more impressive were the 11 ground-ball outs he induced, as compared to just two fly outs. As discussed within this Travis Sawchik piece, the Pirates have put an extra emphasis on the two-seam fastball, which is designed to induce ground balls. In Burnett's two seasons in Pittsburgh, his ground-ball rate has been above 56 percent after never cracking 50 percent in his time with the Yankees.

All those ground balls play perfectly into the arms of the Pirates' shift, and this was evident with two outs in the sixth inning when Jay Bruce -- a dead-pull hitter -- ripped a ground ball toward right field. In a traditional alignment, that's a clean single. But with second baseman Neil Walker playing in short right field, with shortstop Clint Barmes just a few feet to his right, it was an easy out.

However Burnett might actually feel about shifts, there is no doubt that he has adjusted his pitching approach with the Pirates, and he has thrived as a result. Per FanGraphs, he's accumulated almost 7 wins above replacement in two years with the Pirates after barely cracking 2 WAR in his last two seasons with the Yankees.

Burnett has talked about retiring after this season, which means that this could be his last major league start. Part of me hopes that Burnett keeps pitching in Pittsburgh to see if he can continue this late-career renaissance. I get the sense that history won't be that kind to Burnett because his results have never seemed to match his stuff, particularly earlier in his career when he would alternate dominating starts with duds, while collecting big-money deals from the Blue Jays and Yankees. There was always a bit of a Nuke LaLoosh element at play with him, it seemed.

But here's the thing: He's had a pretty good career. I tend to think pitcher wins are fairly useless in single-season samples -- Burnett is 10-11 this year despite a 3.30 ERA -- but they are a decent quick-and-dirty method for measuring career value. Burnett now has 147 career wins with an ERA of 4.00, which is above average for the hitter-friendly era in which he spent most of his career. For context, his career ERA+ is 105, and that's identical to Jack Morris' ERA+, and he has eight more wins than Johan Santana.

Whatever Burnett's legacy ends up being, he'll certainly be remembered fondly in Pittsburgh, especially after tonight.