ESPN MLB

 
It has been a nerve-wracking 48 hours or so for the Washington Nationals. First, Stephen Strasburg pitched through some forearm discomfort in Monday's loss to the Braves, but he felt fine in a bullpen session Wednesday and will make his scheduled start Saturday. Then came another loss to the Braves on Tuesday. Then Bryce Harper left Wednesday's game in the sixth inning after aggravating his left side, originally hurt slamming into the wall on Tuesday. Luckily, like Strasburg's injury, it doesn't appear serious and he's listed as day-to-day. "Hopefully," he told MLB.com, "I can come in tomorrow, feel like a million bucks and play."

The good news on Wednesday was that Jordan Zimmermann was dominant in a 2-0 victory over the Atlanta Braves, Washington's first in six games against Atlanta, allowing just two hits with no walks and eight strikeouts.

Still, with the Nationals muddling along at 14-14, the injury scares to their young franchise players raises the question: Who is more valuable to the team? Or, to put it another way, if either Harper or Strasburg suffered an injury that did sideline him for a lengthy period of time, which would hurt the team more?

We can start by using projected value for the 2013 season. FanGraphs runs updated ZiPS projections, and Harper's hot start has him now projected to a season line of .281/.366/.511 and 5.3 wins above replacement. If anything, that's probably conservative; we know that among the first aspects of a player's game to stabilize in a small sample size are his walk and strikeout rates, and Harper's rates so far are better than his projected rates, arguably a sign that he'll outperform that triple-slash line.

The ZiPS projection for Strasburg has him posting a 2.96 ERA over 158.1 innings, worth 3.9 WAR. Again, that's probably conservative, since we know if he's healthy he'll pitch more than 158 innings. Projected over 190 innings, we'd get 4.7 WAR. Based on this simple comparison, we'd say Harper is probably more valuable.

However, WAR assumes a generic replacement-level player and not who the Nationals actually have to fill in. In their case, backup outfielders Roger Bernadina and Tyler Moore could platoon in left field; neither has hit in limited playing time this year but performed well a season ago and would likely be better than replacement-level. On the other hand, there is no obvious candidate to replace Strasburg in the rotation. Craig Stammen made 38 starts in 2009 and 2010 but was ineffective (ERA over 5.00) and had a 4.75 ERA starting at Triple-A in 2011. The current rotation at Triple-A Syracuse has been pretty horrific; the best starter has been lefty Daniel Rosenbaum with a 1.14 ERA in four starts, but he has eight walks and just five strikeouts in 23.2 innings, numbers that indicate he'd get lit up in the majors. Veteran Chris Young has allowed 11 runs in two starts and Yunesky Maya has a 7.45 ERA.

So it's possible that Strasburg's replacement could end up performing below replacement level, as well as forcing the bullpen to pitch more innings, something WAR doesn't account for.

Does that make Strasburg more valuable? Not necessarily. For one thing, it's probably easier to acquire a decent pitcher on the trade market than it is a good position player, so that's always a route general manager Mike Rizzo could take. There's also the issue that the Nats' offense has been terrible so far, ranking 12th in the National League in runs scored. Adam LaRoche is hitting .129 and has a single hit in his past 35 at-bats, Danny Espinosa hasn't hit, Denard Span has a .314 slugging percentage, Ryan Zimmerman is on the disabled list and Jayson Werth has missed a couple games with a sore ankle. Where would the offense be without Harper, their 20-year-old star?

The Nationals are ninth in the NL in runs allowed and behind Strasburg they have Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Ross Detwiler. Even with Gonzalez and Dan Haren struggling so far, it's still a rotation that can you win you games, and on paper the bullpen is deep and strong.

Anecdotal evidence also suggests -- in this era of declining offense -- that perhaps it's more difficult to replace a star position player. The Cardinals won the World Series in 2011 even though Adam Wainwright missed the entire season. What if Albert Pujols or Matt Holliday had gone down instead? The Giants won the NL West and the World Series last year even though Tim Lincecum was one of the worst starters in the league -- but missed the playoffs in 2011 when Buster Posey went down early in the season. That's not proof, but with the way Harper is hitting, with the way the offense already seems to revolve around him, and with the question marks with some of the other position players, I would say losing Harper would be the bigger blow.

Hey, didn't Babe Ruth eventually move to the outfield?

Brewers fans aren't accustomed to seeing the Pirates actually win a game at Miller Park -- the Brewers are a remarkable 46-8 at home against the Pirates since 2007.

They are, however, too accustomed to seeing John Axford struggle. After Axford blew a 4-2 lead in the eighth inning on Wednesday afternoon -- Starling Marte hit a two-run homer, Brandon Inge hit the go-ahead bloop -- he walked off the mound to a chorus of boos. (The Pirates won 6-4.) One of the heroes of the 2011 playoff team, Axford is now 0-3 with a 10.32 ERA and you wonder how long Ron Roenicke will keep using him in important situations. Yes, he'd been pitching better since losing his closer role, allowing just one run over in his previous eight appearances, but he's still not a guy you want to trust; 7.1 innings is a not enough evidence that he was back to the Axford of 2011.

The Brewers have an interesting team. They can score runs and they can really score runs at Miller Park, where the ball flies. They're getting huge performances from Carlos Gomez and Yuniesky Betancourt, who each homered again on Wednesday. Jim Henderson has pitched well in the ninth inning since replacing Axford. The rotation is acceptable. But they can't afford to let the bullpen take down the team like it did a year ago. In the NL Central, which could be shaping up as a four-team race, the Brewers are a playoff contender.

GM Doug Melvin shouldn't wait until July to fortify the bullpen. Do it now. The Brewers don't have a highly rated farm system, but relievers don't cost a lot. Ask the Marlins about Steve Cishek or the Padres about Luke Gregerson. Or find that unheralded guy who looks like a sleeper, like when the Angels acquired Ernesto Frieri last year from the Padres.

As for the Pirates, it was a terrific win and Marte continues to impress from the leadoff spot, hitting .321/.387/.491. They're 16-12 even though Andrew McCutchen hasn't hit much yet. One reason they are: Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli have locked down the eighth and ninth innings. Two innings that continue to plague the Brewers.

In case you woke up this morning wondering, "Whatever happened to Bret Boone?" I give you this.

It hasn't been the best of Aprils for the Phillies, and while there was hope that year's mediocre season would see a return to recent glory with full and healthy seasons from Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay, that hasn't been the case. Bill Baer has his April grades for the Phillies. He also points out that the Phillies' schedule gets tougher in May. On the bright side, they're only one game behind the Nationals.

But if you really want to be depressed (or cheered up, if you're not a Phillies fan) -- here are pitch locations for the seven home runs the Indians hit last night.

Speaking of the Indians, Susan Petrone has a summary of Cleveland's first month.

What's the value in being in first place on May 1? I'm sure the Angels and Blue Jays will say -- with hope -- that it doesn't mean much of anything, that baseball is a marathon and not a sprint.

Katie Sharp of ESPN Stats & Info looked up the 102 division champions since 1996 and found that 53 of them were in first place on May 1 (51 percent). Last year, however, only the Nationals were leading on May 1 and went on to win their division. You remember Cleveland, right?

In fact, since 2009 only eight of 24 eventual division winners were leading on May 1, so while a fast start is important, the six teams leading now probably should print their playoff tickets just yet.

Quick thoughts on a Tuesday night that featured a lot of home runs across this great land ...

• Look, Pablo Sandoval is fat. I'm about 99.7 percent sure if that if he lost 10 or 50 pounds that he'd be a better player. But, hey, he is who he is and right now the Giants don't care if can't tuck in his jersey as long as he keeps hitting like this. He crushed an 0-1 fastball from J.J. Putz for a two-run homer in the ninth inning to give the Giants a dramatic 2-1 win over the Diamondbacks. He's 11-for-18 in his past four games, but the best thing about his home run: He sort of called it. Andrew Baggarly of CSN tweeted, "Sandoval told Pence on his way to the plate that he was 'gonna click one.' So he called his shot? 'Pretty much.'" For Putz, that's already four blown saves (although the D-backs managed to win the first three of those games) and you wonder if Kirk Gibson will consider moving David Hernandez or even Heath Bell into the role.
• [+] Enlarge
  Rick Scuteri/USA TODAY SportsPablo Sandoval's two-run home run in the ninth gave the Giants a win over the Diamondbacks.
  Watched a lot of the Rays-Royals game to see James Shields battle against his old pals. Alex Cobb was dominant through five innings, leading 2-0 and going to two balls on just two hitters. The Royals broadcast showed a cool split screen showing the similar deliveries of Shields and Cobb; Shields has that little Tiant-esque twist and Cobb has maybe a little more deliberation, but the two are very similar. Cobb even credits Shields with showing him the spike curveball that he now uses with his fastball/changeup combo. Suddenly with two outs and nobody on in the sixth, the Royals got to Cobb with an Eric Hosmer double, Lorenzo Cain single, Mike Moustakas home run to right (his first of the year), Jeff Francoeur double and Salvador Perez single. Meanwhile, Shields served up a two-run homer to Matt Joyce in the first, but settled down and delivered another quality start. He's only 2-2 as the Royals have struggled to score runs, but he has a 3.00 ERA and 39/10 SO/BB ratio. He's been everything the Royals wanted.
• The reports of Roy Halladay's demise may have been exaggerated, but the reports of his return may also have been a bit premature. The Indians tagged him for three home runs, nine hits and eight runs in 3.2 innings. Cleveland then added four more off the Philly bullpen -- with Ryan Raburn hitting two for the second game in a row -- in a 14-2 win. The Indians have scored 33 runs in their past three games. Oh, Carlos Santana is good: .389/.476/.722. I'll have to check in on the Indians one of these nights.
• Ian Kinsler is quietly having a great season for the Rangers -- two more hits in a 10-6 win over the White Sox to raise his line to .317/.395/.525, along with outstanding defense at second.
• Fun back-and-forth game in Toronto as the Blue Jays beat the Red Sox 9-7 after David Ortiz had given Boston a 7-6 lead with a three-run double in the seventh. Big win to snap a four-game skid. Edwin Encarnacion hit two home runs, including the go-ahead two-run shot off the very tough Junichi Tazawa, and this ginormous shot off Jon Lester into the fourth deck, just the 14th player to hit one there. Melky Cabrera continues to struggle but Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are starting to heat up. Still, as Dan Szymborski wrote, the Jays' slow start has hurt their playoff odds big time.
• Yuniesky Betancourt, you are awesome.
• This happened at Dodger Stadium tonight.

In Tim Hudson's major league debut, Tony Phillips was his second baseman, Olmedo Saenz played third base and Tim Raines played left field. Hudson doesn't seem like he's that old, but that was back in 1999 in a game at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, which means he has been doing this baseball thing for a bit of time now.

Hudson pitched five innings and struck out 11 Padres, leaving with a no-decision.

"He's got outstanding stuff," Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane said after that game. "He needs to learn the league, learn pitch selection and get better with experience. He's an athlete and has the opportunity to be an outstanding pitcher in this league for a long time."

Beane was right about that one.

He also went 1-for-1 at the plate with a walk. The man always could hit. He earned his first win five days later over the Los Angeles Dodgers, earning a beer shower from his teammates. "Who knows where Hudson goes from here? For now, he's a show worth seeing, a slender right-hander who can throw three pitches for strikes," wrote Gary Peterson in the Contra Costa Times.

Fourteen years later, Hudson is still going strong -- strong enough that there's an outside shot he's heading to the Hall of Fame. As Beane said on that June night so many years ago, Hudson is an athlete. He was a star two-way player at Auburn and that athleticism has helped him adapt through the years as his stuff has changed and his velocity has dropped. It has helped him to recover quickly from Tommy John surgery in 2008. It has helped to overcome his status as a short right-hander (he's listed at 6-foot-1, but that article written after his first start said he was 5-11, which he may reach in his spikes). It has helped him to remain a solid, underrated starter at the age of 37, a key reason for Atlanta's success in recent seasons.

Hudson beat the Nationals 8-1 on Tuesday night to earn his 200th career win and did so in style, taking a no-hitter into the fifth while pitching seven brilliant innings, doubling off the wall in left-center to start a two-run rally in the second and then hitting on opposite-field home run off Zach Duke -- and off Bryce Harper's glove -- in the fifth inning for his third career homer. That's a night worthy of another beer shower.

"It was a fun game," Hudson said. "Obviously, it's kind of surreal. No one expects to hit a home run."

For the Braves, it was their fifth victory in five games against the Nationals. For Hudson, it was one of the defining moments of his career, as he became the third active pitcher to reach 200 wins (joining Andy Pettitte and Roy Halladay) and the 110th pitcher reach 200.

As for that Hall of Fame thing, we can start here, with the highest winning percentages since 1901 for pitchers with 200 wins:

1. Whitey Ford (236-106, .690)
2. Pedro Martinez (219-100, .687)
3. Lefty Grove (300-141, .680)
4. Christy Mathewson (373-188, .665)
5. Roy Halladay (201-103, .661)
6. Roger Clemens (354-184, .658)
7. TIM HUDSON (200-105, .656)
8. Mordecai Brown (239-130, .648)
9. Randy Johnson (303-166, .646)
10. Pete Alexander (373-208, .642)

The next three guys are Mike Mussina, Jim Palmer and Andy Pettitte. OK, this is all pretty impressive company, and while winning percentage is obviously team-dependent to a certain extent and Hudson has played on two successful franchises in Oakland and Atlanta, it's certainly not insignificant. It's at least a starting point to put Hudson in a Hall of Fame discussion if he continues pitching well for another three or four years and gets into the 240-win range.

His career ERA of 3.43 may not blow you away, but remember that he pitched much of his career in the middle of the high-octane PED-era. His park- and league-adjusted ERA+ of 125 is tied with Palmer and John Smoltz at 20th among the 89 pitchers since 1901 to win 200 games. That's a better adjusted ERA than Juan Marichal, Bob Feller, Don Drysdale, Warren Spahn, Bert Blyleven, Tom Glavine, Gaylord Perry and Steve Carlton, to name a few big names.

The point: The guy can pitch. Sure, the ERA will eventually rise a few ticks and the winning percentage will likely drop a few points as he ages. Some would argue that Hudson has never been the best pitcher in his league, which is a fair statement. But a lot of Hall of Fame pitchers were never the best in their league and Hudson has been one of the best -- seven times in the top 10 in ERA, seven times in the top 10 in WAR (with a best of 7.5 in 2003, ranking third among AL pitchers), seven times in wins and six times in innings. His career WAR of 54.4 is 77th all-time.

He's not there yet, which is OK. That means hopefully we'll get to continue watching the guy with the great sinker for a few more years. Have a beer with your shower, Tim.

A couple of pieces worth checking out. Last week, Tom Verducci had a column on SI.com arguing that ... well, hitters are getting it all wrong. He writes:

Welcome to the state of the art in hitting these days, where aggressiveness is disdained and passivity is exalted. The modern hitter is guided by the accepted wisdom in catchphrases such as "driving up pitch counts," "taking pitches" and "quality at-bats." There is one serious flaw in this groupthink strategy.

It isn't working.

Hitters are striking out more than ever before in baseball history while runs, walks, hits and home runs have been on the decline for years. And while teams still preach the religion of driving up pitch counts to "get into the bullpen" of the other team, they may be pushing an outdated agenda.

Verducci then presents data showing hitters are swinging at fewer first pitches (from 33 percent in 1988 to 26 percent when the article was published) and swinging at fewer pitches in the strike zone (70.1 percent in 2002, 64.7 percent last year). He concludes: "Pitchers are four years into a run of dominance and there are no signs that their run is abating, especially when the modern passive aggressive approach to hitting has become so ingrained."

OK, that's part one of your reading assignment. Part two comes from Russell A. Carleton at Baseball Prospectus, who responded to Verducci's article by examing some of the pitch and swing data at an even deeper level. On one point, Carleton sort of agrees with Verducci that grinding out at-bats isn't always the best approach:

Mr. Verducci is correct. High pitch counts are neither a harbinger of success, nor of failure at the macro level. It's not the length of the at-bat that matters. It's what you do with it.

This actually cuts against sabermetric orthodoxy at the micro level. One common-sense reason to try to drive up a starter's pitch count is that because teams generally pull their starters after 100 pitches, but are loathe to pitch their good relievers more than an inning at a time, evicting the starter after five innings means that the other team will have to put in a few of their less-than-stellar relievers to cover the extra innings. In fact, a study done by BP's Colin Wyers shows that the earlier a starter exits, the higher the bullpen ERA is for the rest of that game. Teams can try to get at the soft underbelly of the other team's bullpen if they force the starter out early. Assuming that the underbelly remains soft.

I think the one argument that Verducci's column misses -- or at least fails to properly acknowledge -- is that maybe the pitching is just a whole better than it was even a decade ago. His argument hinges on the idea the pitchers (and hitters) are the same, but only that the approach to hitting has changed.

But the pitcher-batter matchup is a complex thing. Batters hit .333/.340/.545 last season when putting the first pitch in play (or getting hit by a pitch). Does that mean hitters should always swing at the first pitch? Of course not. If that happened, pitchers would adjust and start batters off with more pitches out of the strike zone and hitting results would suffer. Then batters would re-adjust and so on. It's also worth noting in 1988, when batters swung at the first pitch more often, the league-wide OPS was .696. In 1992, the last year before offense began exploding, it was .700. Right now, the league-wide OPS is .714 and the 4.20 runs per game is slightly higher than the 4.12 runs per game in 1992.

There are more strikeouts than ever. That might not be a good thing aesthetically, which Verducci suggests, and I understand the belief that you want more variety in the game, and not just strikeouts and a lot of home runs. But it could be that the best way for hitters to adjust to better pitching is to be more selective, even if that leads to more strikeouts. The game evolves.

As Carleton writes, "It's not that our theories are wrong in the sense that when we came up with them, they didn’t accurately reflect the state of the game. It's that the game may have changed under our feet, and we might still be peddling strategy fit for a different set of assumptions. Mr. Verducci's piece has a lot of value in that regard. It's a reminder that the game can evolve, maybe faster than we would like it to, and we have to evolve with it."

I found this edition of Mint Condition interesting. Robert Edward Auctions has an item up for bid it claims is possibly the bat Roger Maris used in 1961 to tie Babe Ruth's then-record of 60 home runs. But the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown claims it has the bat Maris used to hit home runs 59, 60 and 61. Which is the real bat? There's probably no way to ever authenticate, but the one in the video comes from an Orioles clubhouse attendant and is signed and dated by Maris with the day he hit his 60th home run. What I'm confused by: Maris hit No. 60 in New York (he did hit No. 59 in Baltimore a few days prior), so how did the visiting clubhouse attendant from Baltimore get this bat?

Here's the full story of the bat's history. That post says studies of photographs from 1961 show that Maris likely used different bats for Nos. 60 and 61, so it's possible the Hall of Fame does have the record-setting bat but not the record-tying one.

Anyway, the bidding is up to $15,000, so you'll need at least $16,000 if you want to own it.

Keith Law has a column up on why the Reds should bat Joey Votto second. Eric Karabell and I discuss that idea and other things managers should do with their batting orders that could help them score a few more runs. We do present the worst lineup construction of the year but also point out some smart moves managers have made.

You cannot lose a game like this if you're the Los Angeles Angels, not when leading 6-2 in the eighth inning, not while coming off losing three of four to Seattle, not when your team is struggling and staring at a second straight disastrous April.

The Angels did lose to the Oakland A's, when Brandon Moss' two-run walk-off homer in the 19th inning gave the A's the dramatic 10-8 victory in a game that lasted 392 minutes and required 597 pitches to compete. It might end up being the game of the year. The painful defeat dropped the Angels to 9-16. They're already 7 games behind the Rangers and 5 games behind the A's in the AL West, and you have to wonder if long-time manager Mike Scioscia will survive much longer.

I made it into the 17th inning before calling it a night (hey, it was 4 a.m. on the East Coast!). Some thoughts on a game that began with A's fans chanting "Thank you, Josh! Thank you, Josh!" in regards to the fly ball that Josh Hamilton dropped last year in the final game of the regular season, helping the A's beat the Rangers to win the division title, and ended with Moss swatting a Barry Enright changeup over the wall in right:

• The thing to remember about Scioscia is that GM Jerry DiPoto didn't hire him; he inherited him. After a second straight slow start, maybe the Angels will make a change just to shake things up. The Angels have missed the postseason the past three seasons, and are now looking at a fourth straight October on the bench if they don't turn things around in a hurry. That doesn't mean there's an obvious replacement available (how about Joe Torre on an interim basis?) and maybe the Angels don't want to signal panic, but I would say it is time to panic. The Angels might also have to consider that Don Mattingly isn't exactly on firm ground with the Dodgers, who might happily scoop up their popular former catcher, a turn of events that could be a PR disaster for the Angels.
• Look, everybody knows this team was built around Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Trout is off to a slow start, Pujols hit two home runs on Monday but is hitting a mediocre .265/.359/.439 and Hamilton is hitting .202/.246/.298. He looked terrible in going 0-for-8, with several ugly swings, especially against left-handers. He looks pretty helpless against lefties, getting tied up inside and is hitting .172 off them with 15 strikeouts and one walk in 32 plate appearances.
• Kudos to relievers Jerome Williams and Brett Anderson (who was scheduled to start for Oakland but scratched because of a sore ankle) for soaking up innings. Williams deserved to earn the win after the Angels took the lead in the top of the 15th on a bases-loaded walk to J.B. Shuck that left Anderson barking at home-plate ump Kerwin Danley as he walked off the mound. (He did retire Trout to escape the jam). Josh Donaldson began the bottom of the 15th with a routine grounder that second baseman Howie Kendrick bobbled, but Pujols simply dropped the throw. Derek Norris walked but Williams got a double play before Adam Rosales' two-out single tied it up.
• Anderson finally left after 5.1 innings, but Jerry Blevins threw 1.2 scoreless innings for the win. Williams went six. While Anderson's outing was a unique situation, Williams showed the value in having a good long relief option in the pen. A guy who can pitch multiple in extra innings is more valuable than having a third LOOGY in your pen.
• The A's delivered with two outs all night. In the eighth, Melvin hit Chris Young for Josh Reddick when Scioscia brought in lefty Scott Downs, and Young singled to make the score 7-6. Scioscia ended up bringing in closer Ernesto Frieri for a four-out save anyway, but why not bring him in to face the struggling Reddick? He should have anticipated that Melvin would go to Young there. In the ninth, Yoenis Cespedes (who hit a big game-tying home run on Sunday) came through with a two-out blast off the left-center fence to score Coco Crisp.
• Mark Trumbo hit a monster 475-foot moon shot in the second inning, tied with Anthony Rizzo for the longest home run this year. According to ESPN Stats & Info, it was the longest home run in Oakland since the ESPN Home Run Tracker began measuring home runs (in 2006), and the ball left Trumbo's bat at 120.1 mph, the fastest of any home run this season (by 3 mph).
• The few fans left at the end of the game were chanting the names of A's announcers Ray Fosse and Ken Korach.
• Moss gave himself the shaving cream pie during the postgame interview. Gotta love the A's.

Some quick reactions to Monday's fine major league baseball action ...

• [+] Enlarge
  Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesThe Giants on Monday recorded their first win of the season in a game that Matt Cain started.
  The good news for the Giants: A 6-4 win over the Diamondbacks to snap a five-game losing streak and a win for the first time when Matt Cain started. The bad news: Cain scuffled yet again. Cain was sailing along until the fourth inning, when he served up home runs to Jason Kubel, Eric Chavez and Martin Prado. Cain left with a no-decision, and while he remains winless in six starts, it's not just poor run support that explains his 0-2 record. He's allowed nine home runs in his past four starts, including three in two of those. He'd allowed three in a game just twice in the previous three seasons. He also walked four against Arizona. Should the Giants be worried? Kubel and Prado hit fastballs that were both down and in, while Chavez hit a changeup off the plate out to left. Blame Cain for the first two, but give Chavez credit for his. Hitters have been doing a lot of damage off Cain's fastball, hitting .264/.354/.528, compared to a .255/.332/.429 line last year. I think he'll be fine but everyone seems to agree that his stuff just hasn't been as sharp. Keep an eye on his fastball next time out; as with nearly every starting pitcher, everything else plays off the fastball.
• The Matt Harvey-Jose Fernandez matchup kind of fizzled as Fernandez lasted just four innings and 81 pitches while Harvey was pulled in the sixth after laboring through 121 pitches. The game ended up going 15 innings, thanks primarily to the Mets going 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position. The game featured 512 pitches, 16 pitchers and last more than 5 hours. Not exactly one for the time capsule. Shaun Marcum, who had started and threw 70 pitches on Saturday, ended up taking the loss for the Mets, giving up two runs in the bottom of the 15th after the Mets had scored in the top of the inning. At 10-14, reality is starting to hit the Mets: They're not very good. As for Fernandez, after a dominating first two starts, he's been hit around a bit, primarily to hitters jumping on his fastball early in the count. They're hitting .367 off the pitch in his past three starts. He's going to be a very good pitcher but he's learning that it's a big leap from Class A to the majors.
• Giancarlo Stanton landed on the DL after the game with a strained right hamstring suffered in the 10th inning. A shame, especially considering he had homered three times in six at-bats entering the game and looked ready to begin a patented Stanton terror. He missed time last year with a knee problem and then a strained intercostal muscle and you have to start wondering if durability is going to be an issue with him.
• Indians 9, Royals 0. Takeaways: 1. Ubaldo Jimenez won a game! Don't count on this becoming a regular habit. 2. Jason Kipnis hit his first home run. Kipnis (.185/.260/.277) and Lonnie Chisenhall (0-for-4, .221/.254/.368) have to start producing if the Indians want to do anything. 3. Eric Hosmer, another doughnut; .250, three doubles, no homers now and the frustrations build. 4. The Wade Davis (4.2 IP, 12 H, 8 R) starter experiment is probably nearing its end. His stuff just doesn't play up as a starter. Move him back to the pen where he was so good last year with Tampa and give Bruce Chen or Luke Hochevar another shot at the rotation. Wait, did I just say to start Bruce Chen or Luke Hochevar?
• Props to the Brewers: After starting 2-8, they'll end up finishing April with a winning record after beating the Pirates 10-4 to go to 13-11. Starter Yovani Gallardo hit his second home run -- one of five the Brewers hit -- and gave up just three hits in seven innings. Jean Segura is really looking good for the Brewers, with three more hits to raise his average to .364.
• The Dodgers activated Hanley Ramirez from the DL but he didn't start, which seems a little strange. He pinch-hit and struck out in a 12-2 loss to Colorado. The Dodgers' 6-7-8 hitters: Skip Schumaker, Luis Cruz and Justin Sellers. Come on. In his second major league game, Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado went 3-for-6 with his first home run. Welcome to the bigs, kid.
• Kevin Gregg picked put up his fourth save for the Cubs. KEVIN GREGG.
• A's fans chanting to Josh Hamilton: "Thank you, Josh. Thank you, Josh." (In reference to his dropped fly ball in Game 162 last year that helped the A's win the AL West.) Job well done, A's fans.

With apologies to the nice starts of the Pirates and Rockies, the most important story line of April has been the Braves' opening up a 3.5-game lead over the Nationals in the NL East.

Considering the importance of winning the division and avoiding the ridiculous wild-card play-in game, the last thing the Braves wanted to do was dig a hole and try to catch the Nats from behind. Atlanta's 16-9 start -- which includes a 3-2 win over Washington on Monday when No. 5 starter Julio Teheran faced off against Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg -- is even more impressive when you consider everything that has gone wrong for the Braves so far:

• Six-time All-Star catcher Brian McCann hasn't played a game.
• First baseman Freddie Freeman missed 14 games.
• Jason Heyward is hitting .121 and is currently on the DL after an appendectomy.
• B.J. Upton is .146.
• Dan Uggla is hitting .177.
• Teheran scuffled through 5.1 innings on Monday but allowed just two runs -- lowering his ERA to 5.08.

Plus, they Braves had to play 16 of their first 25 games on the road. Of course, a lot has gone right, beginning with Justin Upton hitting .304 with 12 home runs, Andrelton Simmons playing Gold Glove defense at shortstop, Evan Gattis emerging from Double-A to his six home runs, drive in 14 runs and turn into a cult hero while filling in for McCann, and the bullpen going 5-1 with a 2.07 ERA.

Most importantly, the Braves are now 4-0 against the Nationals, which means the Braves earn an A as I hand out my grades for April in the National League. Justin Upton earns an A+ for his monster month -- only four players have hit more home runs in April (Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols share the April record with 14) and only Bob Horner (14 in July 1980), Andruw Jones (13 in June 2005) and Ozzie Virgil (13 in May 1987) have hit more in a calendar month in Atlanta Braves history.

The Nationals, meanwhile, earn a C- for a lackluster 13-13 start -- they're 5-1 against the Marlins and 8-12 against the other major league opponents on their schedule. The Nationals also reported that Strasburg experienced forearm tightness during Monday's game and will be examined on Tuesday. Strasburg walked four while allowing just two runs in six innings against the Braves, but he hasn't been the Strasburg of 2012, or at least the Strasburg of the first three months of 2012. His strikeout rate is down, left-handed hitters have a .391 OBP against him and his ERA is 3.13, ranking just 26th in the NL. Strasburg earns a C, but teammate Bryce Harper earns an A+.

Some other NL grades for April:

Pirates bullpen: A. A key to Pittsburgh's lead in the NL Central has been a pen that has gone 6-2 with a 2.59 while pitching the second-most innings in the majors and allowing a .202 average, second behind Kansas City's .201 mark. Closer Jason Grilli has gone 10-for-10 in saves and has allowed one run in 11 innings.

Matt Harvey, Mets: A. I'd give him an A+, but he actually allowed a run against the Marlins on Monday. Harvey is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA and has held opponents to a .153 average. He did throw 121 pitches in just 5.1 innings against the Marlins, but more than anything that serves to show that Harvey has room to get even better. Which is a scary idea if you're a National League hitter.

Marlins: D-. Last in the majors in batting average, home runs, slugging percentage, OPS and ownership.

Mat Latos and Homer Bailey, Reds: A. It seems like there's a perception that the Reds are an explosive offensive team, but that wasn't the case last year (ninth in the NL in runs scored despite playing in a hitter's park) and while the Reds are second in the NL in runs scored in 2013, they also rank ninth in slugging percentage. The Reds rotation, however, was terrific last year and has been terrific again, second to the Cardinals with a 2.97 ERA. Latos and Bailey remain two of the more underrated starters in the NL. Latos threw six shutout innings against the Cardinals on Monday, picking up his second win and lowering his ERA to 1.83. Bailey is 1-2 thanks to poor run support but has a 2.81 ERA. The two have combined for 69 strikeouts and just 17 walks, and when Johnny Cueto returns from the DL, he might give the Reds the best starting pitching trio in the league.

Cardinals bullpen: F. St. Louis starters are 14-6 with a 2.20 ERA. St. Louis relievers are 0-5 with a 5.89 ERA and .301 average allowed.

Pablo Sandoval's waistline: F.

Pablo Sandoval's bat: B.

The decision by the Brewers to sign Yuniesky Betancourt: D-. I mean, really ... Yuni was going to help the Brewers?

Yuniesky Betancourt: B+. He's hitting .286/.305/.532 and has five homers and 20 RBIs in 23 games, helping the Brewers to fight through injuries to Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart. Don't you love baseball?

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies: A. He's back, he's hitting, he's fielding and the Rockies are in first place. The Rockies have to hope that the strained shoulder Tulo suffered on Sunday isn’t serious (he sat Monday’s game, but there are no plans for a trip to the DL).

Matt Kemp, Dodgers: D-. Heading into Monday's games, FanGraphs rated Kemp 33rd among 36 full-time NL outfielders in WAR -- ahead of only Juan Pierre, Jon Jay and Ben Revere.

Starlin Castro, Cubs: C. I have to remind myself he's still just 23, but Castro is in his fourth season and just hasn't that much with the bat. He's hitting .271 with two home runs, but his approach -- just three walks -- is still limiting his upside. A hitter with an OBP under .300 just isn't that valuable.

Weather in Colorado: F. Please, baseball, don't play games when the weather is below freezing.

1. I am not a liar 2. I would not make that stuff up 3. My own dad doesn't speak to me that way 4. Again I am not a liar #accountability

— David Price (@DAVIDprice14) April 28, 2013

Think our entire dugout would ERUPT cause an ump told me to throw the ball over the plate? No, I'm sorry that wouldnt happen #accountability

— David Price (@DAVIDprice14) April 28, 2013

Here's the most important takeaway from the David Price-Tom Hallion incident on Sunday: Hallion missed the call.

Price thought he had struck out Dewayne Wise to end the seventh inning on a pitch on the outside of the corner. He even took a step to the dugout, but Hallion didn't ring up Wise. Price got Wise on the next pitch but after the game said Hallion swore at him.

"I'm walking off the mound, I'm just mad at myself," Price said. "I didn't say a single word or look at him. He [Hallion] yells at me." Hallion told a pool reporter, "I'll come right out bluntly and say he's a liar. I said, 'Just throw the ball.' That's all I said to him."

Something is fishy, but let's start here. Don't call the player a liar if you got the call wrong. Below is the location of the five pitches to Wise; the fourth one is the one in question.

According to ESPN Stats & Info data, Hallion didn't have a good game on Sunday, with a correct call percentage of 83 percent: Out of 199 pitches that were taken in the game, he missed on 33 ball-strike calls. (Price benefited from some bad calls as well.) The league average is 87 percent, so while 83 percent doesn't appear drastically worse than average, it is -- that would be in the bottom-10th percentile of the league. Out of 200 pitches, we're talking a difference of eight pitches, which is certainly enough to potentially help swing the game's outcome.

Is Hallion a bad umpire? We can't go off one game, so let's check the season numbers: He ranks 64th of the 74 umpires who have umped at least one game behind home plate, with a correct percentage of 85.3. But that's only seven games. What about last year? Hallion ranked 66th of 82 umpires at 86.3 percent. In 2011, Hallion ranked 65th of 83 umpires. I think the trend is pretty clear: Hallion isn't very good at calling balls and strikes. He's not the worst, but he's a long way from the best.

He's a crew chief who began his major league career in 1985; he should know better than to offer a comment when asked about Price, let alone call the player a liar. Even if there was a misunderstanding, he should keep his mouth shut; umpires should always remain in the shadow.

In the end, the missed call to Wise didn't matter. Wise grounded out, and the Rays broke open a 3-3 game with three runs in the eighth and two in the ninth to give Price his first win of the season. But this little incident is a reminder: It's never good news when you're reading about umpires. We're stuck with them -- and the job is tough -- but we shouldn't be stuck with umpires who publicly call out pitchers they have to call balls and strikes on.

REST OF THE WEEKEND
Three stars
1. Anibal Sanchez, Tigers. Sanchez did something Justin Verlander hasn't done, something Jack Morris or Jim Bunning or Hal Newhouser never did in a Tigers uniform: He struck out 17 batters in beating the Braves 1-0 on Friday night, the first win of an impressive sweep for the Tigers as they outscored the Braves 25-7. Sanchez set the Tigers' franchise record for strikeouts -- Mickey Lolich twice fanned 16 in 1969 -- and did it in eight innings. Dan Uggla and Freddie Freeman each fanned four times, as Atlanta K'd 18 times altogether. Sanchez also became just the fifth AL pitcher since 1920 to fan at least 17 with one walk or fewer, joining Roger Clemens (twice), Johan Santana, Vida Blue and Luis Tiant.

2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals. Zimmermann tossed a one-hit shutout over the Reds on Friday -- a night after Gio Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano had one-hit the Reds. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Zimmermann didn't allow a single hard-hit ball and was especially dominant with his slider, throwing it a season-high 20 times as the Reds went 0-for-8 against it. Amazingly, the Reds became the fourth team since 1920 to have one or fewer in back-to-back games, joining the 2008 Astros, 1996 Tigers and 1965 Mets.

3. Russell Martin, Pirates. The Pirates took two out of three from the Cardinals, with Martin hitting a big home run in Saturday's 5-3 win and two more in Sunday's 9-0 shutout. The Pirates are 8-2 in their past 10 games, winning series against the Cardinals, Phillies and Braves.

Clutch performance of the weekend
Yoenis Cespedes, A's. With Cespedes on the DL, the A's had lost eight of nine. They were staring at an 8-6 deficit when Cespedes stepped in with one out and one on in the bottom of the ninth in his first game since April 12. With Orioles closer Jim Johnson having pitched in four of the team's previous five games, Buck Showalter had lefty Brian Matusz face Cespedes, but Cespedes ripped a low slider out to left-center and tied the game with a long home run, and the A's won in the 10th on a throwing error by third baseman Manny Machado (who tried to throw out a runner at third on a sac bunt).

Best game
Padres 8, Giants 7 (Saturday). The Giants jumped out to a 5-0 lead after two innings, but the Padres rallied for six off Barry Zito in the bottom of the fourth (including a great move by Bud Black to hit for pitcher Eric Stults with Jesus Guzman, who delivered a two-run single). The Giants retook the lead, but the Padres tied it up in the bottom of the seventh. Both bullpens were stellar into the 12th, with the Padres finally beating Giants closer Sergio Romo when Marco Scutaro booted what could have been an inning-ending double-play ball. OK, the Zimmermann game was pretty good as well -- he outdueled Homer Bailey and threw just 91 pitches while Bailey threw just 89 in seven innings. Good luck seeing another game this year that features just 194 pitches.

Hitter on the rise: Brandon Crawford, Giants
Is the light-hitting defensive whiz really hitting .291/.361/.547? He hit his fifth home run on Saturday -- one more than he hit last season.

Pitcher on the rise: Lance Lynn, Cardinals
After a sluggish start, some fans wondered whether Lynn -- who dropped 40 pounds in the offseason -- had dropped too much weight. But he's allowed just three hits and one run over 14 innings in his past two starts.

Team on the rise: Yankees
Wait a minute, they've made the playoffs every year except one since 1995! What are they rising from? What about preseason predictions of their demise? The Yankees swept the Blue Jays over the weekend, the bats are hitting home runs, the rotation is solid, David Phelps and David Robertson have pitched some key innings in the pen and Mariano Rivera looks like he only has another seven or eight years in him. The Yankees have some overachievers early on (Vernon Wells, the now-injured Francisco Cervelli), but as long as CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte continue to pitch well, they should hang in the AL East hunt.

Team on the fall: Angels
The Giants have lost five straight, including a sweep to the Padres, but the Angels lost three of four in Seattle and are staring at the same lousy April they had a year ago. Will Mike Scioscia still be managing the club this time next week?

As a reminder:

Odds to win AL East, March 25 (Bovada.lv)
Blue Jays +160
Rays +250
Yankees +350
Red Sox +550
Orioles +750

AL East projected standings, March 26 (Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system)
Blue Jays -- 94-68
Rays -- 88-74
Red Sox -- 84-78
Yankees -- 83-79
Orioles -- 82-80

Picks to win AL East, March 30 (ESPN baseball contributors)
Blue Jays -- 20
Rays -- 20
Orioles -- 2
Yankees -- 1
Red Sox -- 0

Before the season began, everyone talked about how the AL East would be the crazy island of division races, but the consensus was the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays were the two best teams and the other three would be left fighting for wild-card scraps.

Only four of ESPN's 43 baseball contributors picked the Red Sox to even make the playoffs. I was one. As we close in on the end of April, the Red Sox own baseball's best record and are doing it in impressive fashion: 18-7, including 11-5 at home and 7-2 on the road; third in the AL in runs; third in fewest runs allowed; owners of the best run differential in the majors at +40.

Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz have rightfully received a lot of the credit for going a combined 9-0 in 10 starts and allowing just 13 runs. Free agent Mike Napoli is second in the majors with 27 RBIs. Daniel Nava has hit himself into more playing time with a .310 average, four homers and 16 RBIs. Jacoby Ellsbury is healthy and providing energy at the top of order. John Lackey even won on Sunday, so you know things are going well.

But if one player best sums up Boston's April, it's David Ortiz, the heart and soul of the franchise. I imagine Big Papi will get old one of these years. Maybe the bat speed will suddenly slow and he'll turn into that most discouraging of sights: the aging slugger who can no longer hit. That's not going to happen in 2013. In eight games since returning from the DL, Papi has come back with a vengeance by hitting .516 with seven extra-base hits and 11 RBIs. Eight of his 16 hits have gone to left field as he has beat the shift teams usually put on against him. Most importantly, the Sox are 7-1 in those games. With Ortiz in the cleanup spot, the Red Sox lineup looks complete: Speed with Ellsbury, on-base skills with Nava and Pedroia, Ortiz and Napoli in the middle. This lineup just beat the Astros four straight times at home.

It's the kind of lineup that can win a division, especially if Will Middlebrooks and Stephen Drew start inflicting some damage from the bottom of the order. As I hand out some April grades, the Red Sox and Big Papi both earn an A+ for their inspiring start.

Here are some more April grades for the American League (we'll do the National League on Monday night), starting with some other newsworthy mentions from the AL East.

New York Yankees: A. Explain this: No Curtis Granderson, no Mark Teixeira, no Alex Rodriguez, no Derek Jeter ... and the Yankees are 15-9 and lead the AL in home runs. Robinson Cano has seven but Travis Hafner and Vernon Wells, acquired off the scrap heap pile known as "former stars," have each hit six. Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda and Mariano Rivera continue to drink from that special supply of Hudson River water fed into the Yankee Stadium home clubhouse fountain of youth. The Yankees are, dare we say, a good story.

Baltimore Orioles: A. The O's suffered a tough loss on Sunday, but they're 15-10, and there's no crazy record in one-run games going on this year; the Orioles are 4-5 in such contests. The Orioles also have played well through what looked like a tough early slate: six against the Rays plus series against the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, A's, Dodgers and Twins. The offense is second to Oakland in runs scored with Davis (and his 28 RBIs) and Adam Jones leading the way.

Chris Davis, Orioles: A+. Has a good case as the AL MVP for April, which is nice but merely means: Prove it over the next five months.

Toronto Blue Jays: F. Yes, Jose Reyes went down early, but that alone isn't an excuse for a team that has been outscored by 35 runs. They've been awful in every phase of the game, and last week there was a game where John Gibbons hit Rajai Davis and Munenori Kawasaki 1-2. Embarrassing. The Blue Jays are 9-17, a good reminder that April games matter just as much as games in September. The worst April record of last year's playoff teams was the A's at 11-13, so it's possible to recover from a slow start. But ask the Angels how hard it is to recover from a terrible start.

Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays: F. The Jays were hoping there were getting 2011-12 Melky. Instead, they're getting the Melky (no homers, OPS under .600 so far) that Braves fans booed out of town in 2010. Obviously there are extenuating circumstances here with Cabrera's positive PED test last August. Did the PEDs help that much? Is he pressing? Just a slow start? Stay tuned.

Arte Moreno's pocketbook: D. On the heels of last year's mixed-review signings of Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson comes Josh Hamilton, who is hitting .219 with two home runs. The Angels just lost three of four to the dreadful Mariners and you can't just blame the rotation: They scored three runs in the three losses.

Mike Trout, Angels: C+. Trout is hitting .263/.330/.424 with two home runs, and people are already screaming sophomore slump. Come on. Look deeper and you'll see the strikeout and walk rates are basically the same as last year; he has eight doubles and his line-drive rate is higher. He'll be fine.

Yu Darvish, Rangers: A-. He had the near-perfect game and opponents are hitting just .165 off him with no home runs. So why only an A-? Well, he has faced the Mariners and Astros in three of his five starts (and the struggling Angels in his other two), so before declaring him the best pitcher in the AL, let's see him face some of the league's better offenses. I mean, he might be the best pitcher in AL, but I want to see him shut down the A's or the Red Sox or the Tigers before making that declaration.

Kansas City Royals: B+. The pitching has been outstanding with James Shields as advertised (although poor run support means he's just 1-2 despite his 3.09 ERA) and Ervin Santana (3-1, 2.00 ERA), with a nifty 31/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Yes, Royals fans have forgotten about Jonathan Sanchez and Will Smith. The bad news is Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas haven't hit (no home runs).

Rick Ankiel, Astros: C-. On one hand, he has five home runs and 11 RBIs. On the other, he had 29 strikeouts and one walk in 50 plate appearances, meaning he's fanned in nearly 60 percent of his PAs. Baseball in 2013, everyone!

Jeff Keppinger, White Sox: F. Owner of my favorite batting lines so far: He's hitting .202 but his on-base percentage is .198.

Vernon Wells, Yankees: A. Leads AL outfielders in WAR! Better WAR than Trout, Hamilton and Peter Bourjos combined! You can't predict baseball.

Matt Moore, Rays: A-. With Cy Young winner David Price struggling and just capturing his first win, Moore has held the Tampa staff together with his 5-0, 1.13 ERA mark. Opponents are hitting just .113, a figure obviously unsustainable, so I'd still like to see Moore cut his walk rate. But boy, is he fun to watch.

Weather: F. The Minnesota Twins might have to schedule some tripleheaders in July.