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Things started out well enough for Orioles right-hander Kevin Gausman in his highly anticipated major league debut Thursday in Toronto. Through three scoreless innings, the 22-year-old phenom struck out three, walked one and allowed two singles.

Then the wheels started to fall off. After back-to-back doubles to begin the bottom of the fourth, a bunt single and a walk, Gausman had allowed a run and was faced with a bases-loaded, no-out jam. He then fell behind 3-0 on the count to Emilio Bonifacio, but Gausman got Bonifacio to hit a sacrifice fly to center field (thanks to a generous strike-one call). He then retired the next two batters to escape the jam, but the Blue Jays weren't done. In the fifth, J.P. Arencibia hit a two-run home run on an inside fastball, giving the Jays a 4-3 lead. Gausman finished the inning, but his night was done after that.

His final pitching line went as follows: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO on 89 pitches, as the Blue Jays went on to win 12-6. So, yeah, it wasn't a great outing, but it's not hard to see why the Orioles promoted Gausman in the first place. Gausman, who was ranked 26th in Keith Law's preseason top 100 prospects list, has an outstanding repertoire that includes a mid-90s fastball, an outstanding changeup (his best pitch) and a slider that he's been working to improve since entering Baltimore's farm system. He occasionally throws the slider at two different speeds, and when thrown harder it can resemble a cutter.

On Thursday, Gausman utilized all of his pitches, including a few fastballs that touched 98 and 99 mph and several impressive changeups. But he will need to demonstrate better command to keep hitters off balance. It's one thing to blow minor league hitters away by getting ahead and then throwing pitches that are clearly outside the strike zone. But in the majors, pinpoint accuracy will make filthy offerings that much more difficult to deal with. Still, it was Gausman's first start, and it's not uncommon for a pitcher with so little minor league experience to need to command his pitches better.

It's basically a given that Gausman will receive a second start (and more), and he definitely should. The Orioles could have gone in a few other directions instead of promoting him. They could have given Jair Jurrjens another start, recalled Zach Britton or Steve Johnson, or gone with Jake Arrieta or T.J. McFarland. Granted, those aren't necessarily very good options, but the O's didn't have to call up Gausman. But Orioles manager Buck Showalter and executive vice president Dan Duquette wanted to give the youngster a shot, and you'd think they want to see how he performs as the team's fifth starter, at least for a handful of outings -- and preferably for the next few months.

Many Orioles fans expected to see Gausman in Baltimore at some point in 2013, but not in May. If not for the injuries to Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez, the O's probably wouldn't have made this decision so early. Chen is scheduled to begin rehabbing a strained right oblique muscle soon, but he's still at least a few weeks away from returning. And Gonzalez only just came back from a blister on his right thumb on Tuesday. But because of Arrieta's previous ineffectiveness, Freddy Garcia is currently in the rotation, and he has not been good. Garcia has a 4.84 ERA in 22.1 innings, and he's barely striking anyone out (3.22 K/9) and has already allowed six home runs. Since Gonzalez is back, there's no need to have Jurrjens in the rotation (he was recently optioned back to Triple-A Norfolk), and when Chen returns, he'll likely take Garcia's spot in the rotation.

As the Orioles demonstrated when they surprisingly promoted Manny Machado last August, they're not afraid to give their talented young players a chance if they can help the team win games. Showalter said as much on Wednesday. Machado solidified third base and helped the Orioles get to the postseason last year. And now, the O's are hoping Gausman can at least pitch decently for however many starts they decide to give him. They don't need him to dominate, but they do need him to perform better than the rest of their fringe starters. Overall, the Orioles' rotation, which has now used 11 different starting pitchers, has been underwhelming. Heading into Thursday, Baltimore ranked 12th in the American League in ERA (4.73), 14th in K/9 (6.11) and 11th in BB/9 (3.40).

But Gausman could help to change that. He was talented enough for the Orioles to select him fourth overall in last year's draft, and they believed he was advanced enough to only pitch in 15 combined innings in their low- and high-A affiliates before promoting him to the next level. Starting the year at Double-A Bowie in April, Gausman overwhelmed hitters in 46.1 innings, striking out 49 batters and walking just five. He won't replicate those fantastic numbers in the majors, but the O's are hoping he can at least add something to a rotation that could use a shot in the arm.

Matt Kremnitzer writes for Camden Depot, a blog on the Orioles. Follow him on Twitter @mattkremnitzer.

Notice the headline: It says "The Met" and not "The Mets."

We're talking about the Metropolitan Museum of Art and their collection of baseball cards -- including a Honus Wagner T206. As Paul Lukas reports, the story behind how the museum got the cards -- and the man who originally collected them -- is an interesting tale.

The Philadelphia Phillies are 23-24, they've been outscored by 31 runs, Roy Halladay is on the disabled list, Ryan Howard hasn't hit and Cole Hamels can't win. So the Phillies eventually will be sellers at the trade deadline, right? I don't think so. Here are 10 reasons why.

1. Cliff Lee is an ace.

Remember him? Finished third in the Cy Young voting back in 2011. Pitches 200-plus innings every year. Can throw a fastball over a postage stamp while blindfolded. He's still pretty good. OK, his three-hit shutout Wednesday came against the Marlins. It still counts. He's 5-2, his ERA is 2.48, he's one inning shy of leading the majors in innings pitched and opponents are hitting .227 against him. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball.

2. Cole Hamels will pitch better.

Hamels is 1-7 with a 4.45 ERA and has struggled with his command. The Phillies have won just one of his 10 starts. In a way, this is good news. You really think Hamels will go 3-21? That the Phillies will win just three of the 30 or so starts Hamels will make? Of course not. So the fact that the Phillies are 23-24 while playing worse than the Marlins or Astros when Hamels pitches means they could easily be worse than 23-24. But they're not.

3. Kyle Kendrick is actually good now.

As Bill Baer wrote at the end of April, this is a new-and-improved Kendrick over the previous mediocre editions. Basically, Kendrick has stopped throwing so many cutters to left-handers and started using his changeup more often. It has given him a strikeout pitch against lefties and helped hold them to a .240/.290/.380 (BA/OBP/SLG) line against him this season, a big improvement compared to the .268/.341/.458 mark from 2010 to 2012.

4. Michael Young hasn't been horrible.

He hasn't been great, hitting .287 with just one home run, but for some reason, he has started drawing walks (23 this year compared to 33 all of last season with the Rangers). That's given him a fine .378 on-base percentage. If he keeps that walk rate up, Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel should actually consider moving him into the leadoff spot -- especially considering Young's tendency to ground into rally-killing double plays (11, most in the majors). It's not so much that he hasn't been a big positive, but he hasn't been the gaping wound many sabermetric analysts projected. Take that, smart guys!

5. Delmon Young isn't good at baseball.

No, no, no, this is another good thing. The Phillies will eventually realize they'll need a better right fielder. Can you say Andre Ethier? Actually, he and Young would make a nice platoon.

6. The bullpen will do better.

The Phillies rank 27th in the majors with a 4.67 bullpen ERA. I think they have enough quality arms down there (14th in strikeout percentage, for example) to improve. Well, assuming Chad Durbin doesn't keep getting used.

7. The Nationals just might not be that good.

The Phillies are just one game behind the Nationals in the standings. Their run differentials are nearly the same -- minus-26 for Washington, minus-31 for Philadelphia -- but nobody is suggesting the Nationals sell off. That still leaves the Braves, a team the Phillies still have to play 16 times. In fact, the Phillies haven't played the Nationals yet, so they have 19 games remaining against them. So, umm ... they control their own destiny!

8. Even if the Phillies decide to dump, what do they have to dump?

OK, you could trade Chase Utley, but you're not going to get a franchise prospect in return for three months of Utley's services (yes, everyone can point to the Mets getting Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran in 2011, but that's a rarity). You could trade Lee, although his salary is so high -- $25 million each of the next two years with a possible $27.5 million vesting option in 2016 -- that he might not bring much in return, either. You're not going to get anything for Delmon Young or Michael Young. In other words, trading assets isn't really the way to start a youth movement because you don't have valuable assets to deal. That leaves general manager Ruben Amaro with the option of trying to acquire players other teams might be looking to dump -- such as an Ethier, who probably wouldn't cost much if the Phillies are willing to absorb part of his contract.

9. Roy Halladay might return this year.

He just headed to Florida to begin rehabbing from his shoulder surgery, and everyone is hopeful he can return in late August. Hey, you never know.

10. Big-market teams don't give up!

Well, OK, the Red Sox did a year ago, but that's because the Dodgers offered a gift too generous to turn down. The Phillies aren't going to find a taker for Howard's contract.

Look, I don't believe the Phillies are good enough to beat the Braves or Nationals, but the wild card isn't a crazy impossibility. They have a tougher schedule ahead, with 35 games left against the Braves and Nationals and only 19 against the Marlins and Mets. Manuel's resistance to doing things such as platooning Howard or admitting that Delmon Young can't or shouldn't play right field is an obstacle. Michael Young might stop drawing walks. Utley just missed a game with a sore rib cage, so who knows when he'll miss a chunk of action.

If the Phillies trade for a couple of bats in the outfield, however, you never know. It certainly doesn't seem in Amaro's nature to concede a playoff berth. Look for the Phillies to be buyers.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly benched veteran right fielder Andre Ethier for this afternoon's game in Milwaukee and did so publicly, suggesting Ethier lacks toughness or grit or fight or hustle or some combination of those:

"It's not just all, 'Let’s go put an All-Star team out there and play games and the team with the All-Star team wins.' It's trying to find that balance of a team that's got a little grit and a little fight. They'll fight you, and has enough talent to get there also, with that. All grit and no talent is not going to get you there and all talent and no grit is not going to get you there. There's got to be a mixture of both."

It's the third time Ethier hasn't started in six games, and Wednesday's benching was particularly noteworthy because it came against a right-hander. Ethier is one of those players who plays with a sort of effortless ability, but obviously Mattingly sees something going on. With the benching, he's sort of putting what I'll call the J.D. Drew label on him: It doesn't look like Ethier is trying. Difference is, Drew was a much better player than Ethier.

Here, each player's WAR (wins above replacement) from ages 25 to 30 (Ethier is in his age-31 season):

Ethier: 1.1, 2.2, 2.9, 1.9, 2.4, 3.8
Drew: 5.5, 2.8, 2.5, 8.3, 3.2, 4.0

I was going to write how this means Ethier could be on the trading block, since spring training sensation Yasiel Puig is playing well in Double-A (.314 AVG/.385 OBP/.579 SLG, six home runs, 10 steals) and could be in line for a promotion, but Dave Cameron at FanGraphs has an excellent piece on the topic. From Dave's piece:

As challenging as moving Ethier's contract might seem -- he's hit just .270/.346/.415 over the last calendar year, spanning 619 plate appearances, so this is no longer just a slump -- the Dodgers have the financial capability to eat a significant chunk of his contract in order to move him and create a spot in the lineup for Puig. And while Ethier is certainly not worth his full salary, it's not so far removed from the realm of reason that he couldn't possibly be traded.

Even over the past 365 days, when Ethier has demonstrated marginal power, he's still put up a 111 wRC+, and both ZiPS and Steamer forecast him to hit at about that level the rest of the season. The disappointing Andre Ethier is still roughly an average player, maybe even a tick above for this year, though he's on the wrong side of 30 and will probably be below average before too long.

As those graphs suggest, trading him has three obstacles:

1. He does make a lot of money (signed a five-year, $85 million extension last year).
2. He can't hit lefties (never has) and maybe not righties as well as in the past.
3. He's getting older.

Is there another team out there willing to take a chance on Ethier? That believes he's still a 3-win player and not a platoon guy on the decline? The Dodgers would likely have to eat some of his remaining contract. Dave suggests the Royals (for Jeff Francoeur), the Mariners (for Franklin Gutierrez) and the Rangers as possible partners. Those make sense and I'd also toss in the Orioles, for whom Ethier could DH.

The afternoon tilt between the Reds and Mets at Citi Field would have been just another mid-May game between a good team and a bad team, except the Mets are a good team when Matt Harvey pitches. Some thoughts on an interesting game, which the Reds won 7-4 with three runs in the ninth:

• [+] Enlarge
  Brad Penner/USA TODAY SportsJoey Votto's two-run homer in the third put the Reds up, 2-1.
  Harvey didn't have great command on this day (he normally gets a swing-and-miss percentage of 27 percent but was just 13 percent today), although some of that is a testament to the Reds' hitters, especially Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Votto, who are so good at making a pitcher work to get them out. He left a couple of sliders over the middle of the plate but the one big mistake he made was a 3-0 fastball to Votto with Zack Cozart on second in the third. Votto is Mr. Discipline, so Harvey was probably thinking Votto would take a pitch, especially with first base open and one out. He threw a 96-mph fastball down the middle and Votto launched it over the wall in left.
• The next time Votto came up, Cozart was again on second base, although with two outs this time. The Mets didn't fool around and intentionally walked Votto. Brandon Phillips also walked but Harvey got Jay Bruce to ground out on a curveball.
• It was 2-2 entering the seventh but Harvey had already thrown 100 pitches. The Reds had the top of their lineup up and while you could consider bringing in a lefty there to face Choo, who is hitting .146 against southpaws, this is the Mets' bullpen we're talking about and Jesse Orosco and John Franco weren't available. Harvey got Choo on a groundball but Cozart singled to center. That brought up Votto, with Harvey at 109 pitches. Mr. Discipline would take a pitch here, right? Maybe try to take a walk against a pitcher nearing the end of his stint? Nope. Harvey started him off with a changeup and Votto lined a single to center. Phillips then singled to give the Reds the lead and knock Harvey out of the game. (The Reds added another run to make it 4-2.)
• It was the first time in 16 starts that Harvey allowed more than three runs (in fact, he'd given up as many as three only two times) and the second start this year where he allowed more hits than innings. I guess he's allowed to be human every now and then.
• In the bottom of the seventh, Daniel Murphy singled off Mat Latos with two outs to drive in a run and make it 4-3. Latos was only at 99 pitches, but Mets announcer Ron Darling suggested a pitching change may be in order since Ankiel had been on Latos all day. Dusty Baker left in Latos and Ankiel tripled off the wall in left to tie it up. And then Dusty took out his starter.
• Ike Davis is having the season from hell. He did draw two walks and Darling suggested he looked a little more comfortable at the plate, but he's now hitting a miserable .147/.236/.245. And then a bit of defensive indecision cost the Mets in the ninth. With runners at the corners (Votto had been intentionally walked again), here's the result of Phillips' check-swing, go-ahead RBI double. I don't know if Davis had a shot at the runner at home, but you still have to field the ball and let the ump call it foul instead of hoping it goes foul.
• Votto is now hitting .358/.484/.545 with seven home runs. And there are those complaining that he's not driving in enough runs.

OK, let's stir up some arguing and yelling again. Yesterday, I ranked the top five pitching duos. Today, let's do the majors' best hitting duos.

Ranking the pitchers was difficult because there were so many excellent pairs to choose. Ranking the hitters is difficult because of a lack of obvious candidates. But here goes. Angry comments can be posted below!

1. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, Tigers
They seem like the pretty clear choice for No. 1 to me. You have the best hitter in baseball in Cabrera and a power-hitting, on-base machine in Fielder. One bats right-handed, the other hits lefty. They never miss a game and the fact that they can't run is but a minor inconvenience. Right, Cabrera ranks first in wOBA and Fielder 21st. Last year they ranked first and sixth.

2. Joey Votto and Shin-Soo Choo, Reds
They've been the best pair so, ranking third and fourth in wOBA (Baltimore's Chris Davis is second). They've also combined to create the most runs of any pair -- Votto is second in the majors and Choo third in runs created, behind only Cabrera. As good as they've been, I can't put them No. 1 for a couple of reasons. First, Choo is unlikely to sustain this level of play (after hitting .337 in April, he's hitting .250 in May, albeit with power and walks). But it's hard to rate this duo as the best when Choo is also completely helpless against left-handers -- .146/.317/.188. He hit .199 against them last year, so you can pretty easily argue that he should be platooned.

3. Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval, Giants
The Giants are no longer fueled by their starting rotation but by this pair. Their raw stats may not blow you away, but some of their effectiveness is masked by playing half their games in AT&T Park. Last year, for example, Posey hit 17 of his 24 home runs on the road (although this year he's hitting .367 at home and .227 on the road). Sandoval has been inconsistent throughout his career -- his year-by-year OPS totals since 2009 are .943, .732, .909, .789 and .832 so far in 2013 -- but after breaking a bone in each hand the past two seasons, looks poised for a big season. And we mean big. He's the ultimate bad-ball, bad-body hitter, and while I wished he walked more, he and Posey have developed into a lethal combo. Put them in a different park and their numbers would be even better.

4. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
Both started a little slow but have still combined for 21 home runs. Each has the ability to hit 40 home runs (Encarnacion hit 42 last year, Bautista passed the 40 mark in 2010 and 2011). Both are hitting under .260 right now, but they draw walks so they will post solid-to-excellent on-base percentages. If Bautista ends up hitting closer to the .302 mark he posted in 2011 and Encarnacion hits .280 as he did last year instead of his current .256, they could end up challenging Cabrera and Fielder for the top spot.

5. Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, Angels
Oh, yeah, Trout is now hitting .293/.373/.558, including .343/.434/.757 in May, and provides added offensive value with his speed. The question: What does Pujols bring to the table? He has scuffled so far with a .247/.318/.420 line, including a league-leading 10 double plays. The foot is clearly bothering him and maybe it doesn't get better. Maybe Pujols doesn't get better even if the foot does. But I'm not quite ready to write him off just yet.

OK, I know I'm going to hear it from Rockies fans about not including Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez -- but I'm going to include them in the poll instead of Trout and Pujols. For the first time in his career, CarGo is actually hitting on the road, a robust .325/.407/.625. His walk rate is up as well, so we could be seeing an improved Gonzalez this year. If CarGo does keep hitting on the road, then I'll move them into the top five.

Worth mentioning:

• Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez/Jean Segura, Brewers. Gomez and Segura are off to great starts, but let's wait a bit to see if they're this good.

• Carlos Santana and Mark Reynolds, Indians. Two reasons the Indians have scored a lot of runs.

• David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox. Ortiz has 29 RBIs in 27 games since returning from the DL and Pedroia has a .420 OBP.

• Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Kemp, Dodgers. If Kemp gets going.

• Chris Davis and Manny Machado/Adam Jones, Orioles. Machado falls into the Gomez/Segura camp: Let's see him do it for bit longer period of time.

 
Quick thoughts on Tuesday's excellent slate of major league action …

• A's 1, Rangers 0. Yu Darvish just doesn't know how to win. This is a big victory for the A's as they take the first two of the three-game set. Yoenis Cespedes' home run, a 418-foot shot to dead center, was all Oakland needed as Dan Straily pitched seven scoreless innings. The A's are like that bug you have to step on six times before you finally kill it; they just keeping coming back and surprising you. After going 4-10 during a recent stretch, people were already starting to write Oakland off -- "last season was a fluke!" -- but now the A's have won five in a row, four by one run. Are the A's in the Rangers' heads after last season's dramatic surge to the division title? Probably not, but it's food for thought. As for Cespedes, his season line doesn't look all that impressive -- .211/.283/.461 -- but the A's are now 21-12 when he plays, and the guy does seem to deliver a lot of big hits. As well as the Rangers have played, it's worth noting they've played the easiest schedule in the major leagues so far. Some of that is a function of playing in the American League West, in which the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels have been terrible (Texas is 9-3 against those two clubs). So that might not change (the A's are 11-1 against the Astros and Angels). It's also fair to point out the Rangers swept the Boston Red Sox, won three of four against the Detroit Tigers this past weekend and took two of three earlier from the Tampa Bay Rays.
• Big hit of the day: Travis Snider's pinch-hit grand slam for the Pirates as they rallied from a 3-0 deficit to beat the Cubs. Matt Garza looked good for the Cubs in his season debut but departed after five innings, and the awful Cubs bullpen was awful.
• Or maybe Nate McLouth's home run was the big hit of the day, as the Baltimore Orioles snapped a six-game losing streak. McLouth's homer came off lefty Vidal Nuno leading off the 10th; kind of interesting that Buck Showalter didn't hit for McLouth, who is platooned against lefties. Other exciting Orioles news: Kevin Gausman, the fourth pick in the 2012 draft, who has been throwing upper-90s heat in Double-A, will start Thursday. Here's video of Gausman getting his 10th strikeout the other night.
• Or maybe Evan Gattis had the big hit -- a pinch-hit game-tying homer in the ninth with two outs, with the Braves winning in the 10th. Like his last homer: love Freddie Freeman's reaction in the dugout. He can't believe it, either.
• Raise your hand if you had Jose Quintana taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Red Sox. Put your hand down.

Some view this short, two-game series between the Indians and Tigers as an opportunity for the Indians to make a statement, now that they've passed the Tigers for first place in the AL Central. No matter that Cleveland took two of three just more than a week ago in Detroit; the Tigers are still the team to beat in the Central, so every series against them is a chance for a division rival to make a statement.

Well, a statement was made on Tuesday night, but it was Max Scherzer making it -- and doing it with an exclamation point. The Tigers right-hander pitched eight brilliant innings against the hottest team in baseball, giving up a run in the first inning but getting stronger as the game progressed, retiring the final 22 batters he faced. The Tigers won 5-1 -- Miguel Cabrera did more Miguel Cabrera type of stuff, hitting the go-ahead two-run homer in the sixth -- as Scherzer improved to 6-0 and lowered his ERA to 3.61.

Scherzer is one of my favorite pitchers to watch. He wears that 1930s-style hat, kind of all scrunched up like it's been tucked into his back pocket all day. He starts his delivery with his glove in front of his face and winds up with his hands going over his head, delivering the ball from a three-quarters arm slot. He gets all kinds of movement on his two-seam fastball, throws a wicked slider and can crank his four-seamer into the upper 90s, like he did in twice striking out Jason Giambi on 97 mph heaters.

His final pitch in the eighth, his 118th of the game, was a 98 mph fastball that Drew Stubbs swung through. It was his fastest pitch of the night. There's the exclamation point. It was one of those games in which you ask: Why doesn't Scherzer do this more often? Why isn't he the 1A to Justin Verlander's 1?

Maybe that's an unfair expectation to hold for a pitcher who is already very good -- he went 16-7 with a 3.74 ERA last year while ranking second to Verlander in the AL in strikeouts and first in strikeouts per nine innings. It was that kind of dominance, combined with a strong second half, that had me picking Scherzer as my sleeper Cy Young pick.

But Scherzer has also been one of those guys where the sum of the parts doesn't always quite add up. He entered Tuesday's start, for example, ranking fifth in the AL strikeouts, second in strikeout rate and in the top 10 in fewest hits and walks allowed per nine innings, and had allowed a reasonable five home runs in 54.1 innings. He controls the running game (opponents are 3-for-8 stealing against him). And while he was undefeated thanks to excellent run support, his ERA was a mediocre 3.98.

That's been a running theme of Scherzer's career -- his ERA never matches his peripherals:

2011: 4.43 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 3.70 xFIP
2012: 3.74 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.23 xFIP
2013: 3.98 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 2.55 xFIP

If you're not familiar with FIP or xFIP, those are advanced metrics that estimate what a pitcher's ERA would be given a normalized batting average on balls in play and home run-to-fly ball rates. Scherzer's BABIPs have been high -- .314 and .333 the past two seasons -- but is now down to .275 this season after Tuesday's two-hit effort. That suggests some bad luck, but it's not always so simple to say he's pitched in bad luck.

For example, while Scherzer has allowed five home runs this year, he's allowed 15 doubles and two triples. He's allowed a .201 opponents average -- 11th among starters -- but he's 32nd in slugging percentage allowed, so he does give up some extra-base hits. He has been a little prone to the big inning as well:

• April 6: Yankees get three in the sixth (two walks and a single, bullpen allows two guys to score).
• April 24: Royals get four in the third (five straight hits).
• May 15: Astros get four in the fourth (J.D. Martinez hits three-run homer).

Now, that could be a product of bad luck, random sequencing or Scherzer losing a bit of his stuff with runners on base. Checking some numbers:

2013: .238 wOBA with bases empty, .312 with runners on
2012: .317 wOBA with bases empty, .307 with runners on
2011: .362 wOBA with bases empty, .336 with runners on

So he hasn't pitched as well with runners on this year, but he doesn't have a track record suggesting there's a problem there.

Add it up, and I draw the conclusion that the big innings have more or less a random set of results this year, and his ERA will begin to slide closer to his peripheral numbers.

In other words, watch out American League, because I think we're going to see more performances from Scherzer like the one we saw Tuesday night in Cleveland.

From Tuesday's chat:

Jacob (Poland): Was there ever a season in which four pitchers under 28 had 15 wins and sub-2.50 ERA?

Excellent question, Jacob. My response in the chat was, "I would guess yes, certainly back in the '60s and early '70s" and I said I'd do a quick follow-up post later on. So he's the follow-up post.

The question is pertinent since this era's crop of young pitchers presents a list of candidates who could do it this year: Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez (yes, still just 27), Matt Harvey, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Shelby Miller, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Moore and Chris Sale being the best bets.

Of course, we had a long period when few pitchers of any age recorded an ERA under 2.50. From 1993 through 2008, only four pitchers under the age of 28 finished with an ERA under 2.50 -- Pedro Martinez twice, Greg Maddux, Mark Prior and Jake Peavy. All told, however, there were just 27 such seasons, with Martinez, Maddux and Randy Johnson responsible for 15 of the 27 seasons.

Anyway, we came close to answer Jacob's question in 2009 when Hernandez, Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke, but that's only three. We have to go back to 1972 to get four -- and that year we had nine. Here are the five previous times it was done:

1972
Steve Carlton, Catfish Hunter, Steve Kline, Jon Matlack, Gary Nolan, Blue Moon Odom, Jim Palmer, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton

1969
Steve Carlton, Larry Dierker, Jerry Koosman, Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, Bill Singer

1968
Stan Bahnsen, Steve Blass, Jerry Koosman, Sam McDowell, Denny McLain, Dave McNally, Blue Moon Odom, Tom Seaver, Mel Stottlemyre, Luis Tiant

1964
Dean Chance, Don Drysdale, Juan Marichal, Gary Peters, Dick Radatz, Chris Short

1963
Dick Ellsworth, Sandy Koufax, Juan Marichal, Ron Perranoski, Gary Peters, Juan Pizarro, Dick Radatz

Anyway, the strike zone had been redefined beginning in 1963, setting in motion a 10-year period when the pitchers -- in particular young guys who threw hard -- dominated. We're in another era when the pitchers are dominating. Fifteen wins and a sub-2.50 ERA is still a tough standard, especially since starters don't get as many decisions as they did in the '60s, but it wouldn't surprise me to see four guys do it this year.

This came up a couple times from readers in my chat session Tuesday, suggesting that the Cincinnati Reds may not be as strong as their 27-18 record because they've had an easy schedule so far, in particular compared to the Cardinals and Braves.

Indeed, if you go to our RPI rankings, you can see strength of schedule. Here are average winning percentages of opponents played:

Cardinals: .515 (sixth)
Braves: .504 (11th)
Reds: .484 (24th)

So the Reds have played an easier schedule. But what's the difference between a .515 winning percentage and .484? Over 162 games, we're talking about an 83-win team on average versus a 78-win team, so while the Reds have played an easier slate than the Cardinals -- Cincinnati has played the Marlins seven times, for example, while St. Louis is yet to play them -- I don't see it as a huge benefit. An advantage? Yes.

You can twist it the other way and point out that the Reds have played the Nationals seven times and the Cardinals three, or the Cardinals have played the Brewers 10 times while the Reds have played them just three.

Plus, as Reds fans in the chat were quick to point out, the Reds have played most of the season without ace Johnny Cueto (who returned Monday night), without a left fielder and with Dusty Baker screwing up the No. 2 slot in the batting order.

Of course, one of those three things is self-imposed.

One reader called it "epic." I don't know about that, but it was a two-and-a-half hour marathon chat session

Major league baseball is so deep in quality starting pitching that you could probably make the case for nine or 10 different combinations as the best pair going right now. Here are my top five:

1. Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
This may surprise you, but Hernandez and Iwakuma have the highest WAR (wins above replacement) of any pair of pitchers in the majors. And before we write off Iwakuma's outstanding start to the season as a fluke, here are the American League ERA leaders going back to last July 1, when Iwakuma joined the Mariners' rotation:

Iwakuma: 2.54
Hernandez: 2.69
Justin Verlander: 2.77
James Shields: 2.86
Hiroki Kuroda: 2.97

So the M's have Hernandez, one of the best pitchers in baseball, a guy who has pitched 230-plus innings the past four seasons and who has been as effective as any starter in the game for nearly a year. And they have Iwakuma, who will give up some home runs, but he's walked only 11 batters in 10 starts and his splitter has turned into a wipeout pitch -- batters are hitting .184 off it with one home run, 35 strikeouts and two walks in 79 plate appearances ending with the pitch. If the Mariners fall out of the wild-card race, maybe they'll look to trade Iwakuma while his stock is high, but I fear that would be a mistake and they would be making a Doug Fister-like trade that backfires. Iwakuma is for real.

2. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez, Tigers
The Tigers' rotation is so good that you could also slot Fister or Max Scherzer here and have an equally terrific duo. I still like Scherzer as the club's No. 2 as the season progresses, but Sanchez has been terrific so far and has ramped up his strikeout rate to new highs, up more than 9 percent from last season (68 in 55.1 innings). His ERA is 2.77, and while his home run rate is probably unsustainable (just two allowed), his BABIP is too high on the other end at .356. Moving forward, those two results should cancel each other out as they normalize and Sanchez should remain outstanding.

3. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, Dodgers
Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game right now -- he's gone 22 consecutive starts allowing three earned runs or fewer, the longest such streak since Pedro Martinez had 23 in 1999-2000 -- and Greinke would be the ace of many teams. Now that Greinke is back from his broken collarbone, we'll see if everyone has written off the Dodgers too quickly.

4. CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees
Somehow, Kuroda still flies under the radar despite playing in New York. He's not flashy, but batters are hitting .201 AVG/.254 OBP/.292 SLG against him. There's some luck going on here since his .229 BABIP will probably rise, but his slider has been untouchable: opponents are 8-for-61 (.131) against it without an extra-base hit. Meanwhile, Sabathia has lost some velocity off his fastball, but he pitches down in the zone more, throws strikes and keeps the Yankees in games. Since his pitch counts have run high at times he's averaging only 6.5 innings per start, so maybe his days as a 230-inning workhorse are over (he missed a few starts last year, remember, and pitched just 200 innings). Remember as well that these guys have to pitch half their games at Yankee Stadium, where routine fly balls can land in the right-field stands.

5. Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Yes, young guns Shelby Miller and Matt Harvey have seemingly pushed Strasburg out of the limelight, but he's still pretty good and still throws hard (best average fastball velocity among starting pitchers). Nonetheless, he's been surpassed by Zimmermann as the club's ace. Zimmerman doesn't rack up the huge strikeout totals so the advanced metrics like FIP and xFIP suggest his ERA will rise (well, it will, since it's at 1.62 right now). But he throws strikes with Maddux-like precision (nine walks in nine starts) and while there were concerns heading into the season about his ability to go deep into games, his efficiency has allowed him to toss three complete games without throwing more than 107 pitches. He's 7-2 and could be 9-0 -- in the two games he lost, he allowed two runs.

That's my top five, and I couldn't find room for Adam Wainwright and Miller, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, Chris Sale and Jake Peavy, Matt Moore and David Price, Matt Harvey and anybody. It's a pitcher's game right now, that's for sure.

Maybe Don Mattingly is a good manager. Maybe he's a bad manager. Maybe, like his mentor Joe Torre, he's just four jobs away from the job that will turn him into a Hall of Famer. (The headline in the New York Daily News when the Yankees hired Torre: "CLUELESS JOE.")

Right now, Mattingly is taking his share of the blame for the Los Angeles Dodgers' 18-25 start, but blame is spread around to every corner of the clubhouse when you have a veteran roster of famous names, the highest payroll in baseball and playoff expectations and a lousy record. I suspect, however, the Dodgers would be something close to 18-25 regardless who was managing. "It ain't like football. You can't make up no trick plays," Yogi Berra once said.

After getting a vote of confidence from the front office -- Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said Mattingly is "doing fine" -- Mattingly looked like a genius on Monday. But any manager can look like a genius when he hands the ball to Clayton Kershaw. The current Best Pitcher on Planet Earth tossed a three-hit complete game in a 3-1 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers. While Kershaw was his usual dominant self in lowering his ERA to 1.35, we saw the two people who can ultimately save Mattingly's job (well, besides, Colletti and team president Stan Kasten): Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.

The two guys in the middle of the lineup, who make nearly $34 million between them this year, both homered, but it was only Kemp's second and Ethier's fourth of the season. The Dodgers rank 29th in the majors in runs scored, and while you can blame Hanley Ramirez's injury, or the poor production from Luis Cruz, a large portion of that blame falls on Kemp and Ethier. Heck, Kershaw has one home run. Nick Punto has a home run. Kemp is now tied with those two guys. He's hitting .267/.315/.358 with 16 RBIs, and maybe the offseason shoulder surgery has affected him or maybe we're just waiting for a patented Kemp hot streak to kick in.

Ethier tripled and homered, raising his triple-slash line to .262/.345/.407. The problem here isn't as obvious as Kemp's power struggles; this may be exactly who Ethier is now at age 31, a good player beginning the decline phase of his career. That line isn't so different from the .292/.368/.421 Ethier put up in 2011, for example (although he played through some knee issues that year).

But even when hitting .284 with 20 home runs like he did last year, Either is more solid contributor than star. In fact, it's the money being paid to Kemp and Ethier that sums up some of the Dodgers' current and long-term problems. This may be their team … not just for 2013, but for the foreseeable future. Consider their primary payroll obligations right now:

Kemp: $149.5 million through 2019 (34 years old)
Ethier: $85 million through 2017 (35 years old, could vest for 2018)
Carl Crawford: $106.7 million through 2017 (35 years old)
Adrian Gonzalez: $132.1 million through 2018 (36 years old)
Zack Greinke: $147 million through 2018 (34 years old)

That doesn't include Josh Beckett and Ramirez (signed through 2014) or some of the throwaway contracts, such as those of Chad Billingsley (signed through 2014 but out until sometime next year following Tommy John surgery), Juan Uribe and Brandon League. And it doesn't include whatever it will cost to retain Kershaw's services past 2014. Can you say $30 million per year?

If we assume Kershaw makes $20 million next year and then signs a long-term deal for $30 million per season, those five players plus Kershaw will be making an average of about $134 million per season through 2017. The problem isn't so much whether or not the Dodgers can afford that -- by all accounts the ownership group has bottomless pockets and doesn't care much about exceeding luxury tax thresholds (at least for now) -- but what are the Dodgers affording?

That core doesn't look like a core that's going to win in 2013, let alone five seasons from now. That group is akin to the Phillies signing guys such as Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley into their early and mid-30s, then watching them age and the team decline from World Series champs to contenders to mediocrity. Except at least the Phillies won something and dominated for years. What has this group done besides put Mattingly's head in the guillotine?

To be fair, the season is far from over and writing off the Dodgers now could be fateful words. Kemp may heat up, Greinke is back in the rotation, Ramirez will return from the disabled list, the bullpen may stop blowing late leads and Kershaw may win every start the rest of the season.

Still, I suspect Mattingly may not make it through the end of May. That would be the easy way out for Colletti and Kasten. But, hey, who knows, maybe they know a manager out there who has some good trick plays.

This is one of those stretches that makes you happy to be a baseball fan. Or a baseball fan in Cleveland, at least. If you're a baseball fan in Seattle you may be starting to look ahead to football season.

The Indians just completed a four-game sweep of the Mariners, with three wins coming in walk-off fashion, two of those in extra innings, and the fourth win a 6-0 shutout over Felix Hernandez.

Monday's win featured a game-tying rally in the bottom of the ninth, and then after Justin Smoak homered in the 10th for Seattle, a walk-off, three-run homer from Yan Gomes, his second of the game. The tying run scored in the ninth when Mariners closer Tom Wilhelmsen dropped a throw at first base with two outs. In the 10th, the Indians were playing for a tie when Drew Stubbs sacrificed with nobody out, but Smoak's throwing error put two on with nobody out. Gomes followed with his blast to left off a 3-2 fastball from Charlie Furbush.

But it wasn't just Seattle's errors that created this latest bit of magic for Cleveland, now 18-4 since April 28 and 27-18 overall. The rally in the ninth included an infield single by Jason Kipnis on a 3-1 pitch that Robert Andino fielded and short-hopped Smoak, who should have made the scoop, and then a Nick Swisher blooper to right, just out of the reach of Andino. Home-plate ump Laz Diaz, who was terrible all game, had also missed a 2-1 pitch to Kipnis, which changed the structure of that at-bat. Michael Brantley began the 10th with another blooper to right just beyond Andino.

Hit 'em where they ain't.

So, good luck, good fortune and timely hitting. A pretty good combo.

Of course, the Indians have been here before. They were 33-20 on June 1 in 2011, five games up, and were still in first place as late as July 18. Last year's club was 26-18 in May and held first place on June 23 before collapsing to a 24-53 record in the second half.

But I think this is a better team, with a deeper lineup and, so far, better starting pitching. It's still early, but things are looking bright in Cleveland.

I don't know where this post is going, but wherever it leads, it's not meant to rip on Brandon Phillips, if it does wind up sounding negative. Reds fans jumped on me a few weeks ago when I called Phillips overrated, and that's fine: Fans should defend their players, especially the good ones, and Phillips is an excellent player and has been since 2007. Just because I called him overrated doesn't mean I don't like Phillips as a player: I do.

Anyway, right now Phillips is second in the National League to Troy Tulowitzki with 36 RBIs. He's having a great season, right? RBIs are king! He sort of said as much to Eric Karabell in this post:

"My job now is to get RBI, it's my No. 1 thing," said Phillips, who is getting so many of them that he's one off the NL lead, and remains on pace for 133 of them. "That's my goal, to get 100. When I hit fourth that's my job. I don't really worry about my batting average or my on-base percentage, it's just getting the guy in [to score]. Having that approach has been working so far. I'm a free swinger. I like hitting fourth. It's fun. Your job is to do one job."

With seven home runs, Phillips is on pace for a few more home runs than last year, but his batting line remains relatively unchanged from 2011 and 2012, when he drove in 82 and 77 runs -- years when he did spend a lot of time batting cleanup (55 starts in 2011, 73 last year), but not regularly like he's done this year. His triple-slash lines:

2011: .300/.353/.457
2012: .281/.321/.429
2013: .281/.323/.468

Now, one reason Phillips has driven in 37 runs is he has Shin-Soo Choo hitting leadoff and Joey Votto hitting third in front of him, and they are first (Votto) and third (Choo) in the majors in on-base percentage. The Reds have received poor production from the No. 2 spot in the lineup -- their collective .265 OBP is 28th in the majors -- but Phillips has still hit with the second-most runners on base of any player in the majors. Here are the top five, according to Baseball Prospectus:

Prince Fielder, Tigers: 150
Brandon Phillips, Reds: 149
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 148
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: 147
Justin Morneau, Twins: 146

To drive in a lot of runs you need runners on base. Now, Phillips has hit exceptionally well when runners are on and deserves credit there -- .318 with men on and .432 with runners in scoring position. His RBI total is still somewhat a reflection of how often Choo and Votto have been on base, however: His percentage of "others driven in" (percentage of runners on base driven in) is 20.1 percent; among players with 75 plate appearances that ranks 29th (Ryan Zimmerman is first at 26.8 percent).

What's interesting is that it appears Phillips changes his approach a bit with runners in scoring position. He's hit just one run home run in 58 plate appearances, as he seems to focus more on getting the ball in play and getting base hits. With the bases empty he's hit five home runs in 87 plate appearances, but is hitting just .244. Here, the stat lines:

RISP: .432/.474/.591, 7 BB, 8 SO
Empty: .244/.253/.465, 1 BB, 15 SO

He strikes out slightly less (14 percent versus 17 percent) but the walk rate is much better (one of those seven was intentional) with runners on. Phillips says he's a free swinger; well, that's kind of true. With the bases empty, his chase percentage on pitches outside the strike zone is 41 percent; but with RISP it's just 27 percent. Phillips has been better with RISP because he limits his free-swinging habits.

This could just be small sample size results going on here. In 2011-12, for example, his chase percentage with RISP was 34 percent and with the bases empty 37 percent. But if he does manage to maintain this approach, and keep his free-swinging ways to a minimum, he'll continue to drive in a lot of runs.

Now, if only Dusty Baker could find a decent No. 2 hitter imagine how many runs Phillips may knock in.