ESPN MLB

Some more good stuff from around the SweetSpot network ...

• Ben Duronio examines Craig Kimbrel's breaking ball. Some label the pitch a slider or slurve, but Kimbrel refers to it as a curveball. Here's all that matters: It's a devastating pitch.
• Value Over Replacement Grit has an in-depth look at the "Three True Outcomes" concept (a batter either hitting a home run, drawing a walk or striking out) and applies it to entire teams. Which teams in history have best emulated a TTO attitude?
• Chip Buck of Fire Brand compares the AL East rotations.
• Alex Gordon may be close to signing a one-year deal with the Royals. Craig Brown of Royals Authority has a reaction and breaks down what a potential long-term deal could look like.
• Camden Depot's Jon Shepherd examines what Manny Ramirez could potentially bring if the Orioles sign him.
• Marlins reliever Steve Cishek flew under the radar as a rookie but posted impressive numbers. Jonathan Mitchell at Marlins Daily asks whether Cishek should be considered for a high-leverage role in the Marlins' bullpen.
• At Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Gleeman reviews the Johan Santana trade between the Mets and Twins. With that article in mind, Bill Baer looks back the deals that brought the Phillies Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt.
• Considering what the Brewers traded to get Zack Greinke -- compared to what the Reds gave up for Mat Latos and the Cubs to acquire Matt Garza -- that deal is looking like a steal for Milwaukee, writes Jack Moore.
• Joey Matschulat opines on Elvis Andrus' three-year extension with the Rangers.
• Chris Quick looks at some of the PECOTA projections for the Giants. (PECOTA is the projection system used by Baseball Prospectus.) What about new outfielder Melky Cabrera? Well ... let's just say the Giants may still struggle to score runs.
• Yes, Cubs fans, you have reasons to be optimistic!
• For my fellow Mariners fans, Brendan Gawlowski has a good look at the Mariners' non-roster invites.

And a few more links from elsewhere ...

• John Sickels of Minor League Ball with a fun look at the top 30 position players in baseball and how they were viewed as prospects. Here does the same thing for the top 25 pitchers.
• ESPNBoston kicks off its "10 Question in 10 Days" series heading into spring training with Gordon Edes' look at Bobby Valentine.
• ESPNNewYork has a similar series with the Yankees and Andrew Marchand writes that Johnny Damon is the right fit for the Yankees' DH slot.
• Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas is going position-by-position with the Rangers and looks at Yu Darvish.
• Mark Saxon says that Vernon Wells -- and not Mike Trout -- will be the Angels' left fielder.
• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs lists his top 10 moves of the offseason ... and his 10 worst.
• Mentioned briefly above, Baseball Prospectus has reintroduced PECOTA, its player projection system. Colin Wyers has the details here.
• George Brett's company is being sued. Wait ... you mean those necklaces don't actually improve athletic performance?

Editor's note: The following is an excerpt from "100 Things Phillies Fans Know and Do Before They Die" by Bill Baer. Copyright 2012 by Bill Baer. Excerpted with permission from Triumph Books. (Check out more of Bill's work at Crashburn Alley, our Phillies SweetSpot blog.)

53. Ed Delahanty

Ed Delahanty was the first marquee player in Phillies franchise history. The right-handed hitter joined the club in 1888, but did not rise to stardom until 1892. Early in his career, he was a jack-of-all-trades, but as he became more established in the league, he settled in nicely as an outfielder.

In his first four seasons -- which included one season with the Cleveland Infants of the Players League -- Delahanty showed decent contact skills, but scant power. In 1892, he broke out with 57 extra-base hits and 91 RBI. The next year, Delahanty barely missed out on the triple crown, leading the league with 19 home runs and 146 RBI, but his .368 average trailed teammates Billy Hamilton (.380) and Sam Thompson (.370).

Delahanty hit .404 in each of the next two seasons. The trio of Delahanty, Hamilton, and Thompson are the only Phillies to hit over .400; no one has accomplished the feat since the turn of the 20th century.

From 1893-96, Delahanty hit .392 with a 1.069 OPS. He led the league in doubles, home runs, RBI, and OPS twice.

Delahanty did not slow down much as he aged. In 1899, at the age of 31, he led the league in average at .410 and RBI at 137, missing out on the triple crown again. He also had an astonishing 238 hits. Impressively, Delahanty was also a great base runner, finishing his career with 455 stolen bases, averaging one every four games.

Delahanty was easily the best hitter in the Phillies' young history, but he has also remained among the best in franchise history more than 100 years later. He still ranks in the franchise's top-ten in batting average (2), on-base percentage (5), slugging percentage (10), OPS (6), runs (2), hits (3), doubles (1), triples (1), RBI (2), walks (7), and stolen bases (2).

Additionally, along with Rogers Hornsby, Delahanty is one of only two three-time .400 hitters. His career .346 average is fifth all-time in baseball history, behind Ty Cobb, Hornsby, "Shoeless" Joe Jackson, and Lefty O'Doul.

Along with his impressive numbers, Delahanty is remembered for one of "the most shameful home runs of all time." In 1892, the Chicago White Stockings were in Philadelphia at the Huntingdon Street Grounds. In the eighth inning, Cap Anson hit a fly ball to center field. The ball hit a pole and caromed into a "doghouse," where numbers were stored for the scoreboard.

Delahanty went after the ball but got stuck. His teammate Sam Thompson had to retrieve Delahanty with the ball, but Anson had already circled the bases by the time the two had emerged. The book "Baseball Hall of Shame" by Bruce Nash and Allan Zullo referred to the home run as an "inside-the-doghouse home run."

45. The Ryne Sandberg Trade

The Phillies have made quite a few trades with the Chicago Cubs over the years, but arguably none as bad as the Ryne Sandberg trade. Sandberg was drafted by the Phillies in the 20th round of the 1978 draft. In the minor leagues, he performed well enough to merit significant attention from other teams as a trade chip.

After the 1981 season, 36-year-old shortstop Larry Bowa and the Phillies could not reach an agreement on a new contract. Bowa requested a three-year deal, but team president Bill Giles had no intention on handing out a multi-year deal to an aging shortstop. When the team flat refused to grant Bowa the contract he desired, Bowa went on a tirade, accusing the organization of lacking class.

Bowa was still under his old contract, though, so the Phillies either had to keep a disgruntled player on their team or trade him to another organization. With a trade, however, the Phillies would not have any leverage as their dispute with Bowa was in the public eye.

Former Phillies manager and newly-installed Cubs GM Dallas Green saw an opportunity for his club. The Phillies wanted to swap Bowa for Ivan DeJesus, but Green knew he could extract more from the Phillies by playing on Bowa's shortcomings. Later speaking about the trade, Green said, "We knew we had them over a barrel." After a back-and-forth conversation, Green convinced the Phillies to include Sandberg in the deal.

On January 27, the two teams had reached an agreement. The Phillies sent Bowa and Sandberg to Chicago and the Cubs sent DeJesus to Philadelphia. While Sandberg went on to enjoy a highly-successful career with the Cubs that would lead to enshrinement in the Hall of Fame, DeJesus had three very lackluster years with the Phillies, hitting just .249 between 1982-84.

From 1984 to 1993, Sandberg made 10 consecutive All-Star teams. He won the NL Gold Glove at second base each year from 1983 to '91, and he finished first in MVP voting in 1984.

Sandberg finished his career with 62 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a sabermetric statistic that factors in a player's contributions on both offense and defense, then accounts for the position he plays and compares him to the expected production of a replacement-level player (a theoretical player who would be freely available to play for the league minimum salary). Prior to Chase Utley, the Phillies franchise leader in WAR for second baseman was Tony Taylor at 11.9. There is no doubt that, if Sandberg had stayed in the Phillies organization, he would have retired as the greatest second baseman in Phillies history.

They say hindsight is 20/20, but the outcome of this trade could have been seen coming from a mile away. Unfortunately, the Phillies were forced into action by an ugly contract dispute with one of the team's most recognizable players in Larry Bowa. Bowa, of course, would later return to the Phillies as a manager in 2001, but left at the end of the 2004 season after many clashes with his players, including third baseman Scott Rolen.

Bowa's fiery personality was one reason why he was and still is such a controversial figure in Philadelphia sports history, but the Sandberg trade is as big a part of it. Who knows just how good the 1984-1992 Phillies would have been with Sandberg -- they may not have had to wait 10 years to reach the postseason.

The awesome Baseball-Reference.com lists something called "similarity scores" for each player. Originally introduced by Bill James, similarity scores takes a player and compares his basic statistics to other players, starting with 1000 points and subtracting points for degrees in difference in various categories. It doesn't adjust for era or ballparks so isn't necessarily meant to be serious sabermetric analysis, but it is a fun tool.

Anyway, here are Clayton Kershaw's top 10 most similar pitchers through age 23:

1. Vida Blue
2. Dontrelle Willis
3. Hal Schumacher
4. Ramon Martinez
5. Jimmy Dygert
6. Dean Chance
7. Dave Boswell
8. Ismael Valdez
9. Al Mamaux
10. Ken Holtzman

Some of these guys had excellent, long careers like Blue and Holtzman. Others developed arm problems and never matched their early dominance (Martinez, Chance, Boswell). Two were pitches from the first two decades of the 20th century (Dygert, Mamaux).

Anyway, none became Hall of Famers. Which I promptly tweeted.

Does this mean we should be worried about Kershaw's future? There's an old axiom that too many innings on a young pitcher's arm may not bold well for a long career. Of course, teams are more careful about the workloads they give to young pitchers now than even 20 years ago. Martinez, another young Dodgers ace, pitched 234 innings at age 22 -- not much different than the 233 Kershaw just threw at age 23. However, Martinez had at least eight games of 130-plus pitches (we're missing pitch counts for a few other starts as well). Kershaw's high game at age 22 was 118 pitches and he exceeded 120 just twice in 2011.

Kershaw is a pretty unique talent, so I didn't necessarily like that list of comps. Here's another list. Most strikeouts through age 23 since 1947:

1. Bert Blyleven
2. Dwight Gooden
3. Frank Tanana
4. Larry Dierker
5. Sam McDowell
6. Fernando Valenzuela
7. Don Drysdale
8. Felix Hernandez
9. Clayton Kershaw
10. Gary Nolan
11. Dennis Eckersley
12. Catfish Hunter

Now, I think Dodgers fans will agree that's a little better list, with four Hall of Famers. Not incuding Kershaw and Hernandez, Nolan had the fewest wins on the list at 110. He was a dynamic talent who battled shoulder injuries after dominating in the majors at age 19.

Gooden, of course, also dominated at age 19 and won his Cy Young at age 20. We don't have pitch totals for those early years, but we do have them from 1988, Gooden's age-23 season. He had eight games of 120-plus pitches, including one with 138 and another with 131. Actually, not too bad. But who knows how many pitches he had thrown from 19 to 21, when he averaged 248 innings per season.

Stating the obvious: the Dodgers have done a terrific job handling Kershaw's workload, slowly ramping up his innings from 171 to 204 to 233. That's no guarantee he'll have a long and healthy career -- and he'll have to prove he can handle the 230-plus innings year after year like Hernandez has shown the past three seasons -- but the Dodgers have done everything possible to protect their prized left-hander. There's no reason not to expect Kershaw to contend for a few more Cy Young trophies.

The Dodgers open the season April 5 in San Diego. Their home opener is five days later against the Pirates, so Kershaw should start that one as well.

I know it's been a rough year for Dodgers fans, but let's hope they show up en masse to support their Cy Young winner. I know I'll be watching.

The Dodgers avoided arbitration with Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw by agreeing to a two-year, $19 million contract.

Kershaw easily beat out Roy Halladay in the Cy Young voting after going 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 248 strikeouts, leading the National League in wins, ERA, strikeouts, fewest hits per nine innings (6.7) and WHIP. He ranked third innings, just four behind Chris Carpenter. He allowed zero runs in 10 of his 33 starts and one run seven times. He even hit .225 -- higher than his opponents' batting average (.207).

All that and Kershaw doesn't turn 24 until March.

So what's in store for 2012? It's hard to believe he can get much better, but he's lowered his walk rate from 4.8 per nine in 2009 to 3.6 to 2.1. The only thing that may prevent him from matching 2011's ERA is that he pitched six times against the Giants -- and went 5-0 with a 1.07 ERA. He started four times against the Diamondbacks and three apiece against the Padres and Rockies, so he may not be fortunate enough to draw the Giants so many times again.

Defensively, the Dodgers ranked as a middle-of-the-pack team (15th in the majors via Defensive Runs Saved). They'll get a full season from Dee Gordon at shortstop and Mark Ellis was brought in to play second. That could be a slight upgrade up the middle.

Let's set the over/under on his ERA at 2.50.

For the next two weeks, "Baseball Tonight" (airing at 3:30 p.m. ET) will take a closer look at players in the spotlight for 2012 and ask the question "What's next?" for that player. Share your thoughts in the comments section and join in the discussion.

Hanley Ramirez saw his production drop significantly in 2011, as he dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness.

Ramirez finished with a batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage slash line of .243/.333/.379, all career lows. His OPS dropped by 141 points from 2010. He then was informed he’d be switching positions with the Marlins' signing of Jose Reyes.

One of the issues Ramirez faced in 2011 was that he was unable to do something that usually netted him positive results -- pull balls in the air.

Ramirez became an opposite-field fly ball hitter and his performance subsequently dipped, as the charts on the right illustrate.

Along with that, Ramirez had trouble driving fastballs, sinkers and cutters thrown to the upper-third of the strike zone and above.

When Ramirez made contact with what we called a high, hard pitch in 2009 and 2010, he hit .420 with 66 hits and nine home runs. That dipped to .256 with 11 hits and two home runs in 2011.

The heat map below further shows Ramirez’s struggles.

 

So, what's next for Ramirez? Will he bounce back strong in 2012? Discuss below!

The St. Louis Cardinals were dead in 2011.

And then they rose. They rallied to win the wild card on the final day of the season. They beat the Phillies in the Division Series. They beat the Brewers in the NLCS. They rallied to win one of the greatest baseball games ever played and then won Game 7 to defeat the Rangers in the World Series.

We all know about the Cardinals' offseason: Goodbye to Albert Pujols, Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan; hello to Carlos Beltran and to the hopeful return of Adam Wainwright.

When I did my NL Central position rankings, the Cardinals came in third. Cardinals fans don't appear to happy about that. But they will be counting on aging players like Beltran, Lance Berkman and Rafael Furcal to remain healthy and productive. What will Wainwright bring to the table? Can Kyle Lohse repeat his career season? Will Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia respond after a long season and big workloads?

The Cardinals won 90 games in 2011. Factoring in the additions and the losses, I'll put the over/under at 89.5 wins for 2012. What do you think?

In January, I wrote a piece on the five best players in baseball, looking at each five-year span since 1969-1973. The most recent five-year span ranked as Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Holliday. Considering Pujols is coming off the worst season of his career and just turned 32, and Utley and Mauer suffered through injuries, the title of "best player in baseball" seems more wide open than it has been in decades.

With that in mind, I asked Twitter followers to name their best player in baseball. Here are the results of the first 100 responses:

Troy Tulowitzki: 19 votes
Albert Pujols: 18 votes
Jose Bautista: 13 votes
Matt Kemp: 11.5 votes
Miguel Cabrera: 9 votes
Evan Longoria: 7 votes
Joey Votto: 7 votes
Justin Verlander: 6 votes
Roy Halladay: 4 votes
Robinson Cano: 3 votes
Ryan Braun: 1 vote
Jacoby Ellsbury: 1 vote
Justin Upton: 0.5 vote

The fact that 13 different players received votes and none received even 20 percent shows the lack of consensus on the topic. Rockies shortstop Tulowitzki edged out Pujols in the voting, although that may be have been influenced by the fact that I posted the question around 9 p.m. ET.

Anyway, here were some responses:

still Pujols, but closest it's been in a while. --@sahadevsharma

Verlander. Most dominant pitcher in pitcher heavy time. --@zcrizer

Best is Troy Tulowitzki. Key infield position at SS. Leader. Silver Slugger. Gold Glove. --@Stars5Steve

Tulo. Premier player at a premium position. --@cmiller0

Considering Albert is only a year removed from a 7.5 WAR and .420 wOBA, I'll side with him. Too close to call though. --@LWM_sucks

jose bautista easily --@TdotsFinest11

Miguel Cabrera without a doubt, so consistent you can't deny it, gives you the whole package. --@GadyBlitz

Ryan Braun. Even without the roids. --@oneandonlyburke

Should we assume Adam Wainwright will be as good as he was in 2009 and 2010? How good is Jason Kipnis? Should the Reds trade Joey Votto before he becomes a free agent? Plus: Some suggested challenge trades, the future of the Astros and Orioles, Matt Harrison and more! Click here for the chat wrap.

No more making fun of the NL Central, not after the St. Louis Cardinals shocked the baseball world with their wild-card run and postseason dramatics.

But that was 2011. The Cardinals will have to repeat without their best player and their legendary manager. So let's get down to business and see how the Cardinals and their division rivals rate position by position. Rankings are based on my own subjective predictions for 2012 performance, including offense, defensive ability, durability and risk. Argue, discuss and debate below in the comments section. (And don't forget to follow me on Twitter @dschoenfield.)

(Here are the other divisions we've done: NL East, NL West, AL East, AL Central. Next week, we finish up with the AL West.)

Catcher
1. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
2. Devin Mesoraco/Ryan Hanigan, Reds
3. Geovany Soto, Cubs
4. Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers
5. Rod Barajas, Pirates
6. Humberto Quintero/Jason Castro, Astros

It's hard to believe Molina is still only 29, but he was just 21 when he reached the majors. By adding some doubles and home runs to his game, he had his best all-around season in 2011 and now ranks as one of baseball's top catchers. Soto has alternated good years with the bat with bad ones; it's time for a good one, I suppose, but I'm going to give the edge to the Reds' combo. Mesoraco is a rookie who hit .289/.371/.484 at Triple-A. Hanigan is one of the best backup catchers around and has a career .390 on-base percentage against left-handers; so of course Dusty Baker gave him only 48 plate appearances against lefties in 2011. Lucroy played well in his first full season and ranked as one of the best in the game at framing pitches, according to one study. Castro, Houston's first-round pick in 2008, missed all of 2011 with knee surgery and will miss the start of spring training after foot surgery. His bat is a question mark even if he's healthy.

First base
1. Joey Votto, Reds
2. Lance Berkman, Cardinals
3. Carlos Lee, Astros
4. Garrett Jones, Pirates
5. Bryan LaHair, Cubs
6. Mat Gamel, Brewers

Well, Astros fans, you've finally reached it: The final season of Lee's six-year, $100 million contract. The memories will soon seem nostalgic. Did you know Lee has more RBIs in his career than Hank Greenberg, Pie Traynor, Zack Wheat, Bobby Doerr, Gary Carter, Chuck Klein, Bill Dickey, Joe Kelley, Heinie Manush, George Sisler, Earl Averill, Tony Gwynn, Roberto Alomar, Joe Morgan, Kirby Puckett, Bill Terry, Kiki Cuyler, Hack Wilson or Ryne Sandberg, just to name a few? Anyway, this group lines up pretty cleanly, although I wouldn't be surprised to see LaHair put up good numbers after slugging .664 at Triple-A Iowa.

Second base
1. Brandon Phillips, Reds
2. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
3. Neil Walker, Pirates
4. Jose Altuve, Astros
5. Darwin Barney, Cubs
6. Skip Schumaker/Daniel Descalso, Cardinals

Phillips over Weeks thanks to durability, consistency and defense. Weeks over Walker thanks to the better stick. Walker over Altuve because Altuve drew five walks in 57 major league games. Altuve over Barney because he did hit .389 with 42 extra-base hits in 87 games in the minors. Barney over Schumaker and Descalso because that's not even a platoon, given that both hit left-handed.

Third base
1. Aramis Ramirez, Brewers
2. David Freese, Cardinals
3. Scott Rolen, Reds
4. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates
5. Ian Stewart, Cubs
6. Jimmy Paredes, Astros

Each of these guys has issues. As Dave Cameron wrote on ESPN Insider, the Brewers might be better off moving Ramirez and his lack of range to first base and playing rookie Taylor Green at third. As Freese showed in the playoffs, he can hit if he remains healthy but will remain a big liability in the field. Rolen had a miserable season while fighting a bad shoulder, but we have to rank him higher than Alvarez, although I suppose it's possible Alvarez will finally learn to hit those pitches that wiggle. Stewart forgot how to hit with the Rockies last year; a cheap risk for the Cubs to see whether he'll bounce back. Paredes will battle Chris Johnson for playing time, which isn't exactly Ali versus Frazier.

Shortstop
1. Starlin Castro, Cubs
2. Rafael Furcal, Cardinals
3. Clint Barmes, Pirates
4. Zack Cozart, Reds
5. Jed Lowrie, Astros
6. Alex Gonzalez, Brewers

Even with his problems on defense, Castro is the clear No. 1 in this group. Furcal is a health risk after playing just 165 games over the past two seasons; he still received $14 million for two years from the Cardinals, which shows you their desperation to fill a position weak in two-way players right now. Barmes moves from the Astros to the Pirates and brings a solid glove, if not exactly Honus Wagner's bat. Cozart does a little of everything but nothing extraordinary. He carries a better defensive rep than Lowrie, who has an extensive injury history. At least Lowrie has potential with that bat, which is more than you can say for the vet Gonzalez, who at least brings a steady glove with his low OBP. He might make Brewers fans forget Yuniesky Betancourt, however.

Left field
1. Ryan Braun, Brewers
2. Matt Holliday, Cardinals
3. Alex Presley, Pirates
4. J.D. Martinez, Astros
5. Chris Heisey/Ryan Ludwick, Reds
6. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

If Braun ends up serving his 50-game serving suspension, you can move Holliday up a spot ... or you can leave him second if you remember that he missed 38 games himself in 2011. Presley was never a top prospect, but he has blossomed into a solid line-drive hitter; a repeat of his .298/.339/.465 rookie line wouldn't surprise me. Martinez is another overachiever, a 20th-round pick in 2009 out of famed baseball factory Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., who reached the majors two years later after hitting .341 in the minors. Heisey does some things well -- such as pop a few home runs -- but is probably exposed as an every-day player. He has hit right-handers much better in his career, so maybe Ludwick will play against lefties in an unusual right-right platoon. Soriano posted a .289 OBP. You can ignore that only in fantasy baseball.

Center field
1. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
2. Drew Stubbs, Reds
3. Nyjer Morgan/Carlos Gomez, Brewers
4. Jon Jay, Cardinals
5. Marlon Byrd, Cubs
6. Jordan Schafer, Astros

McCutchen didn't take a big step forward in 2011, but he's still one of the better players in the National League. If he can consolidate the power and walks and hit closer to .300, he'll be one of the best players in the sport. Morgan and Gomez provided a nice platoon, especially on defense, where the Brewers ranked third in baseball with plus-20 defensive runs saved in center. Stubbs hit .343 when he put the ball in play; unfortunately, he struck out 205 times. I guess I'm still in his fan club (pun intended) because I just ranked him second. Byrd is prime trade bait with prospect Brett Jackson waiting in the wings.

Right field
1. Corey Hart, Brewers
2. Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
3. Jay Bruce, Reds
4. Jose Tabata, Pirates
5. David DeJesus, Cubs
6. Brian Bogusevic, Astros

Only five outfielders have hit more home runs than Hart the past two seasons. Bruce is not one of them, although he has matched Hart's total of 57. Bruce was Roberto Clemente in right field in 2010, according to the various defensive metrics, but was more Edgard Clemente in 2011. I'm guessing the 2010 season was an outlier. Tabata has eight home runs in 823 career PAs; he's still just 23, but the power needs to show up.

No. 1 starter
1. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
2. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
3. Mat Latos, Reds
4. Matt Garza, Cubs
5. Brett Myers, Astros
6. Jeff Karstens, Pirates

The first four are all class. Any of them could end up being the best pitcher in the division in 2012.

No. 2 starter
1. Zack Greinke, Brewers
2. Johnny Cueto, Reds
3. Jaime Garcia, Cardinals
4. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
5. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
6. Charlie Morton, Pirates

Of course, that honor also could go to Greinke. Once he returned from his offseason tour with the Globetrotters, he started off "slow" thanks to a high average on balls in play, but in the second half he went 9-3 with a 2.59 ERA. Greinke led the majors in strikeout rate, but the one mark against him is that he pitched more than seven innings just twice in his 28 starts. Expect some regression from Cueto after a .249 BABIP and low home run rate. The only question for Garcia is how his arm will respond after jumping from 163 innings as a rookie to 220 in 2011. And this is where I can say something about the Pirates' rotation: It had a 4.21 ERA in 2011 (11th in the NL) but ranked last in innings and last in strikeouts and posted a 5.04 ERA in the second half. Just in case you were wondering why I have Morton ranked sixth.

No. 3 starter
1. Shaun Marcum, Brewers
2. Bud Norris, Astros
3. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
4. Homer Bailey, Reds
5. Paul Maholm, Cubs
6. James McDonald, Pirates

Wainwright is a wild card as he comes back from Tommy John surgery; I don't think it's fair to him to assume he'll be as good as he was in 2009 and 2010. Ignore his 6-11 record; Norris had a solid campaign. OK, I'm going to admit this: I finally believe in Bailey. He had a 3.21 SO/BB ratio, a better ratio than pitchers such as Garza, Garcia, Latos, Matt Cain, C.J. Wilson and Tim Lincecum. Don't be surprised if he has a breakthrough season.

No. 4 starter
1. Randy Wolf, Brewers
2. Mike Leake, Reds
3. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
4. Travis Wood, Cubs
5. Erik Bedard, Pirates
6. J.A. Happ, Astros

Debate.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Narveson, Brewers
2. Bronson Arroyo/Aroldis Chapman, Reds
3. Jake Westbrook, Cardinals
4. Jordan Lyles/Henry Sosa, Astros
5. Chris Volstad, Cubs
6. Kevin Correia, Pirates

You know ... the NL Central could come down to which team gets the most out of its fifth starter. And it's safe to say no team knows exactly what to expect from any of these guys. The most important wild card is Arroyo: A year after winning 17 games, his longtime infatuation with the home run turned into an obsession as he allowed 46 of them, tied for the third most ever in one season. The Reds are grooming Chapman as rotation competition, but considering he walked more than seven batters per nine innings in relief, it's a transition most scouts believe will end with Chapman back in the 'pen.

Closer
1. John Axford, Brewers
2. Ryan Madson, Reds
3. Joel Hanrahan, Pirates
4. Jason Motte, Cardinals
5. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
6. Brandon Lyon, Astros

We have three dominant closers, one with a World Series ring who is primed to join their ranks, stress-inducing Marmol and a guy coming off an 11.48 ERA. Guess which one ranks last? I give Axford the nod as No. 1 over Madson based on a heavier workload in 2011 and over Hanrahan based on a better strikeout rate. And, of course, the best 'stache in the game.

Bullpen
1. Reds -- Sean Marshall, Nick Masset, Bill Bray, Sam LeCure, Logan Ondrusek
2. Cardinals -- Fernando Salas, Marc Rzepczynski, Mitchell Boggs, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Sanchez
3. Brewers -- Francisco Rodriguez, Kameron Loe, Marco Estrada, Jose Veras, Zach Braddock
4. Pirates -- Daniel McCutchen, Chris Resop, Evan Meek, Tony Watson, Jason Grilli
5. Cubs -- Jeff Samardzija, Kerry Wood, James Russell, Marcos Mateo, Scott Maine
6. Astros -- Wilton Lopez, Fernando Rodriguez, Aneury Rodriguez, Sergio Escalona, Juan Abreu

The Reds have a deep 'pen that includes three quality left-handers: Marshall and Bray plus Chapman, if you include him. LeCure is a guy who could factor into the rotation at some point, and Jose Arredondo also is hanging around. The Cardinals' bullpen came together during their playoff run, and that didn't even include Sanchez, who allowed just 14 hits in 30 innings before going down with a sore shoulder. The Brewers are strong from the right side but don't have a solid option from the left side unless Braddock finally develops.

Intangibles
1. Brewers
2. Reds
3. Pirates
4. Cardinals
5. Cubs
6. Astros

I liked all the strings Ron Roenicke pulled in 2011; I like the support the Brewers got from their fans -- Miller Park was consistently the loudest and most passionate fan base I heard all season. Yes, they have lost Prince Fielder and may have lost Braun for a third of the season, but that will help keep a chip on their shoulders. The Reds have the most depth in the division, but I don't completely trust Baker to use it in the optimal manner. The Pirates will play hard and still have youth on their side. The Cardinals will have to win without Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa. Manager Mike Matheny and veterans such as Beltran, Furcal and Berkman are big risks considering their ages and/or health histories. Cubs and Astros are in rebuilding mode, but both teams should be better than 2011.

Final tally
1. Brewers, 77 points
2. Reds, 73 points
3. Cardinals, 68 points
4. Pirates, 46 points
5. Cubs, 39 points
6. Astros, 33 points

Whoa! Didn't expect that, did you? As much as everyone seems to be building the NL Central as a two-team battle between the Cardinals and Reds, I see the Brewers remaining good enough to be in the thick of the race. They have the fewest questions marks in the rotation, and that makes them a decent bet in my book. I agree with other prognosticators who see this division split into two levels. But you never know ... it is, after all, still the NL Central, where anything can happen.

Just a little blast from the past to whet the appetite for spring training ...

Troy Tulowitzki will once again be a popular preseason MVP selection, especially if you believe in the Rockies' chances in the wide-open NL West.

He's finished in the top-10 of the MVP voting each of the past three seasons and has won two consecutive Gold Gloves as well. The only question: Will he stay healthy?

He missed 19 games in 2011 and 40 games in 2010. When he's played, he's been productive, hitting for power and average. Over the past three seasons he's averaged 139 games and 30 home runs.

After hitting 30 home runs in 143 games last season, that seems like a pretty good barometer for his 2012 output. I'll set his over/under for home runs at 30.5.

What do you think? Vote in the poll (and you can click on the over/under tag at the bottom of the file to check out our other over/under polls).

Jeremy Guthrie has pitched the past five seasons for the lowly Baltimore Orioles, facing the tough lineups of the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox several times per season, pitching in a good home run park for hitters and throwing in front of generally mediocre-to-poor defenses.

His reward for finally getting traded out of Baltimore ... Coors Field!

Some guys never catch a break.

With Guthrie facing free agency after the 2011 season, the Orioles traded the veteran right-hander to the Colorado Rockies for starter Jason Hammel and reliever Matt Lindstrom. A quick look at the basic stats would suggest there isn't a lot of difference between Guthrie and Hammel:

Guthrie, 2007-2011: 2.6 BB/9, 5.5 SO/9, 1.2 HR/9, 1.27 WHIP
Hammel, 2009-2011: 2.7 BB/9, 6.3 SO/9, 1.0 HR/9, 1.40 WHIP

Despite the similar numbers, I like the deal from Colorado's perspective. Guthrie has performed in a tougher division, facing tougher lineups. He's pitched 200-plus innings each of the past three seasons while Hammel has averaged 175 in his three seasons as a starter, reaching the 170-180 range each year. Hammel has had to pitch in Coors Field and has compiled a better road ERA during his three years starting for the Rockies -- 4.30 versus 4.95. However, his strikeout rate took a big dip in 2011 from 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings to 5.0, so that's a red flag. I just don't see much upside for Hammel pitching in the AL East.

The Orioles do get two years of team control with Hammel plus a salary savings -- Guthrie signed for $8.2 million, while Hammel will make $4.75 million. Lindstrom still throws hard -- he averaged 96 mph on his fastball in 2011, although he still hasn't done much with that power heater. He did have his best season in 2011 despite a low K rate (6.0 K's per nine) because he threw more strikes. I don't see him as much more than a back-of-the-bullpen arm, but he'll likely serve in the late-innings mix with Jim Johnson and Kevin Gregg.

I do wonder whether the Orioles could have held Guthrie until the trade deadline and flipped him to a desperate contender for a couple of prospects. I would think a durable innings-eater like Guthrie would have been an attractive trade commodity.

Guthrie steps into the No. 2 spot in the Rockies' rotation behind Jhoulys Chacin. There is one cause for concern: Guthrie is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Which means: (a) He can be prone to the home run (and this is Coors Field); (b) You need good outfield defense behind him.

The good news is Guthrie moves from a team that ranked last in the majors in outfield defense in 2011, according to Baseball Info Solutions' defensive runs saved (23 runs below average), to a team that ranked 12th (plus-18). However, the addition of Michael Cuddyer to the Colorado outfield is unlikely to improve that metric.

Guthrie should add stability to the Rockies' rotation. Now the club just needs to figure who the third, fourth and fifth starters are from a group including Juan Nicasio, Drew Pomeranz, Jorge De La Rosa (rehabbing from Tommy John surgery), Tyler Chatwood, Josh Outman, Guillermo Moscoso, Alex White and Jamie Moyer.

Now that we’re waiting for these last few days to pass before pitchers and catchers report, it’s worth remembering that beyond the usual camp fights and reps as players get into regular-season shape, we’ll also see a few players challenged as they never have been: challenged to change positions.

Every club has different motivations for attempting this sort of thing: immediate need, making room for a major free agent or fulfilling a long-term plan for a younger player. What are the 10 most interesting attempted position switches to watch this spring?

1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers, from 1B to 3B: Cabrera’s bulk might seem like a major stumbling block to his making a jump to the hot corner now that Prince Fielder is manning first base. Although Cabrera started at the hot corner for the Marlins, he was a regular there in only two full seasons, 2006 and 2007; Baseball Info Solutions graded his defense 27 runs below average across those two seasons.

Tigers skipper Jim Leyland has plenty of experience with making the best of a bad situation at the hot corner. He tolerated Bobby Bonilla’s fielding at third base for the ’97 Marlins despite long exposure to Bonilla’s bad hands and scattershot arm as a Pirate back in the ’80s, for example. But fundamentally, can Cabrera do it? That seems like a stretch, but over a full season, he might not have to. The Tigers can rotate him or Fielder to DH now and again, and Cabrera also has plenty of experience in left field -- another position where the Tigers don’t have to play any one guy regularly.

With Leyland in the dugout, it’s worth keeping in mind that no manager in baseball today is more aggressive when it comes to using defensive replacements -- even if Cabrera acquits himself better than expected, don’t be surprised if Brandon Inge keeps busy as a frequently used substitute.

2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins, from SS to 3B: Another move made to make room for a free agent. The immediate expectation is that an athletic shortstop like HanRam should be more than capable of jumping to third base. Shortstop is supposed to be harder, after all, so the expectation is that Ramirez might go from a questionable glove at short to a defensive asset at third.

However, it’s worth remembering that not all of these moves turn out well. As Michael Humphreys documents in his excellent "Wizardry: Baseball’s All-Time Greatest Fielders Revealed," Chipper Jones was an example of a former shortstop with tremendous athletic ability moved to third, only to deliver initially awful results in his first several seasons. Humphreys goes on to point out that Alex Rodriguez hasn’t become a great or even a good third baseman since starting out as a competent shortstop, and if your memory goes back to the ’70s and ’80s, neither did Toby Harrah.

So Ramirez’s value at third base is no sure thing, and how well he adapts will be a matter of hard work in camp.

3. Neftali Feliz, Rangers, from closer to starter: We’ve been through this before, as Feliz was prepped to start for the Rangers last spring only to wind up back in the bullpen. This time around, with veteran closer Joe Nathan in the fold, the transition should stick. Feliz has consulted with Pedro Martinez on the nature of the challenge of moving to the rotation -- a move Pedro had to make when the Dodgers distrusted his ability to withstand the workload of starting.

In Feliz’s case -- unlike Pedro’s -- his size or stature has never been a stumbling block, and he’s always had the broad assortment of plus stuff you’d associate with a top starter. Between the plus changeup he added in 2008 and the power breaking stuff he hasn’t had to use as often out of the 'pen, he’ll do more than keep people guessing. Because he’ll be entering his age-24 season, the Rangers will be sure to monitor his workload, but every other light is green on this project.

4. Daniel Bard, Red Sox, from reliever to starter: If Feliz’s transition is part of a grand design, Bard’s seems more a matter of immediate need. However, it’s worth remembering that Bard started out as a starting pitcher prospect and a first-round selection. He didn’t really turn the corner with the slider that now complements his 97 mph fastball until he moved to the ’pen in the minors. Will he be able to throw it as effectively a second or third time through a big league lineup? His changeup might wind up becoming the key off-speed pitch in his arsenal that gets him all the way through 90-100 pitches and into the sixth inning.

5. Mark Trumbo, Angels, from 1B to 3B: This hasn’t gotten nearly the same kind of attention that Cabrera’s has in even less time, but that’s because Trumbo’s success is not a critical component to the Angels’ plans the way Cabrera’s is to the Tigers. General manager Jerry Dipoto is adamant that, after he recovers from a stress fracture in his foot, Trumbo’s move off first base to make way for Albert Pujols won’t be to one position but to a superutility role, playing all four corners and DH as Mike Scioscia tries to find ways to squeeze Bobby Abreu, Vernon Wells, Kendrys Morales and Trumbo into the lineup when there are just two lineup slots they can have to themselves.

Even if Trumbo’s healthy, there’s the question of whether he can really make the jump to third. He’s never played there in the minors, let alone the majors, and he was better known as a top pitcher in high school when the Angels drafted him. As experiments go, this seems desperate and might not survive to see the light of Opening Day.

6. Chris Sale, White Sox, from reliever to starter: This move is more like Feliz’s shift to the rotation than Bard’s, because it was anticipated from the day the White Sox drafted him in 2010 that he had the stuff to eventually start. But his arm was good enough to make the majors in a relief role just weeks after his selection. With Mark Buehrle’s defection via free agency, a slot has opened up, so the Sox can proceed with what they’ve always wanted from Sale: a southpaw tower of power capable of pumping pure gas from the mound. Although 2012 hasn’t been a season to look forward to on Chicago’s South Side, watching Sale every fifth day should be something people pay to see.

7. Jayson Werth, Nationals, from RF to CF: This isn’t guaranteed to happen, but it’s a very likely outcome should top prospect Bryce Harper somehow wind up making the team as the starting right fielder. The argument over whether Harper will be ready is one major hurdle, but whether Werth would be able to handle center field over a full season is another.

In baseball history, only two men as tall as Werth’s 6-foot-5 have ever played anything close to every day as a center fielder: Alex Rios of the White Sox over the past two years and the Phillies’ Von Hayes for big chunks of 1984 and 1985. Werth’s listed weight, 220, is heavier than either Rios' now or Hayes' then -- he’s simply a much bigger guy. Drew Stubbs is another big man in center -- he’s 6-foot-4, but also almost 20 pounds lighter. The Braves’ Dale Murphy was famously big for center, but at 6-4 and a listed weight of 210, he was also smaller than Werth.

If Harper makes a case to the Nats to play on Opening Day, could Werth really handle the pounding of racing gap to gap over a full season? If you have your doubts, you’re not alone, especially in light of GM Mike Rizzo’s recent decision to bring back Rick Ankiel (although on a minor league deal).

8. Jim Thome, Phillies, DH to 1B: As Jayson Stark pointed out last month, Thome’s challenge in moving back to playing a position might be remarkable, but he won’t be the only famous forty-something to have spent time at first base. But because he's played all of four games at first base in the past six seasons, concerns about his durability given his extensive track record for injury -- including two DL stints last season -- come to the fore.

However, even with the initial expectation that Thome will be little more than a Sunday starter and regular pinch hitter, you’ve got the open question about how much playing time in left John Mayberry Jr. might have to log, as well as the dubious proposition that Ty Wigginton will hit enough to handle the spot. Given the uncertainty about his lineup, Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel might well be tempted to take a few chances with Thome.

9. Daniel Murphy, Mets, utility to 2B: It remains to be seen how serious the Mets are about attempting to return Murphy to the keystone after he was knocked out with knee injuries -- while playing second base, no less. He has never been able to handle second base as a regular at any level as a pro, having played just 19 games there in the minors. This is a lot like what the team went through with Keith Miller more than 20 years ago. Even with the “Hal McRae rule” to protect second basemen, a basic level of agility is required at second base -- to protect yourself and to move around the bag effectively -- and there’s reason to doubt Murphy has it after injuries to both knees, if he ever had it in the first place.

10. Sean Doolittle, Athletics, 1B to pitcher: Speaking of knee injuries, bum wheels essentially ruined Doolittle’s shot to stick as a position player. The former supplementary first-rounder from the 2007 draft was a two-way star at Virginia in college. Now the A’s are trying to recoup some value from their investment by putting that arm to good use on the mound. He made an initial effort on the mound last season, throwing an inning in rookie ball. You can never know how these things will turn out, but Sergio Santos is the most recent example of a strong-armed player enjoying an overnight success with a move to the mound; A’s fans might have at least this one small chance to daydream.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic -- Winning is never lost in translation, and for Andy Dirks, the last two years have been full of success in both English and Spanish.

The Detroit Tigers outfielder, possibly a starter this coming season, has spent the last two seasons in the Dominican Winter League and has come out a winner both times as he won a title with the Toros del Este in 2010-11 and had the game-winning hit last weekend with the Leones del Escogido.

Dirks has become a folk hero of sorts at Estadio Quisqueya, where fans sport Dirks signs and give him as much applause as they do hometown heroes Julio Lugo, Francisco Liriano, Erick Almonte, Pedro Florimon and Fernando Tatis.

At the Caribbean Series, which pits the champion clubs from the Puerto Rico, Mexico, Venezuela and Dominican leagues, Dirks’ heroics gave the Dominicans a 5-2, 13-inning victory Friday night to get Escogido off to a 2-0 start and put them well on their way to becoming the first club to win the Caribbean Series crown at home since Mexico’s Mazatlán Venados accomplished the feat in 2005.

“I love playing down here,” said Dirks, a 26-year-old from Kansas who played his collegiate ball at Wichita State. “The baseball is intense, the fans are intense and it’s an enjoyable way to play. That’s why I came back.”

The left-handed hitting Dirks is perfectly poised this spring to earn the starting right field job with the Tigers, who chose to not pursue Magglio Ordonez this offseason in an effort to renew their outfield.

Dirks will go into spring training in Lakeland, Fla., competing with Brennan Boesch while the Tigers consider using Delmon Young as a designated hitter. Both Boesch and Dirks are left-handed bats.

With the acquisition of Prince Fielder, the Tigers arguably have the best middle of the order in baseball -- and the addition of Dirks to the outfield would give Detroit manager Jim Leyland some speed at the top of the order.

After his successful winter in the Dominican League last year, Dirks, an eighth-round draft pick in 2008, came out of nowhere in spring training and hit over .400 and was eventually called up when Ordonez went down. He ended up batting .251 with seven homers and 28 RBIs in 76 games and even saw action in the American League Championship Series.

Dirks said he has heard nothing from the Tigers other than to report to camp ready to work.

“Quite frankly, I just play. They make the decisions,” Dirks said. “I love playing down here and it helps me stay focused and in shape. I’m going to go to spring training and do what I’ve always done, which is play hard and hope for the best.”

SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic -- Dave Miley isn’t sitting around waiting for the phone to ring but shows hints of a smile when asked if he would consider managing in the major leagues again.

“Ha! I’m not even thinking about that. I’m not even going to talk about that,” Miley said with a smirk over his sun-drenched face.

The former Cincinnati Reds skipper and current manager for the New York Yankees' Triple-A team in Scranton-Wilkes Barre spent his winter leading the Mayaguez Indios to a Puerto Rican Winter League title -- despite having only two true starters in his rotation -- and is now at the Caribbean Series trying to give Puerto Rico its first series crown in 12 years. But in the back of his mind is how he’s going to handle Scranton’s 144-game road trip next season.

“How do you prepare for something like that? I don’t think it’s ever happened, but I guess we’ll deal with it the best we can,” Miley said in regard to the fact that the Scranton Yankees’ home stadium will undergo a $40 million renovation and the team will play its home games at six different cities in 2012, none of which include Scranton.

With all that going on, managing in the majors again isn’t exactly his priority “unless I get a phone call.”

“I really like my job with the Yankees and I like what I’m doing,” Miley said. “What else can I say? I’m looking forward to spring training and getting the season started. Other than that, I’m just trying to have some fun.”

Miley’s time at the helm with the Reds wasn't all that much fun. He took over midway through the 2003 season after Bob Boone was fired and went 22-35. In 2004 the Reds showed some improvement, but still finished 76-86. After a 24-43 start in 2005, he was replaced by Jerry Narron.

Miley landed a job managing the Columbus Clippers, the Yankees’ former Triple-A team, in 2006 and took the team from worst to first by the end of 2007, earning him International League Manager of the Year honors and then a league title in 2008.

Overall, he’s 409-304 since taking over the Yankees’ Triple-A team and doing, by all accounts, a formidable job overseeing the development of prospects which have included infielder Eduardo Nunez, pitchers Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos and catcher Jesus Montero, who was shipped to Seattle in a deal for Michael Pineda last month.

As noted recently, there are several managers on the hot seat even before the start of the 2012 season, including Minnesota’s Ron Gardenhire, Cincinnati’s Dusty Baker, Colorado’s Jim Tracy and Dodgers manager Don Mattingly. All four teams have something in common in that they play to Miley’s forte of polishing young players.

When pressed on the question if he would throw his name out there for consideration, Miley just shrugged.

“I’m not going to go there. When or if the phone rings, then we’ll talk,” he said.