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Bud Selig has officially announced that he'll step down as commissioner in January 2015. Jerry Crasnick will assess his legacy (hey, if Bowie Kuhn made the Hall of Fame I suspect Selig will eventually as well), but here are five key issues for the next commissioner to address.

1. Instant replay and quality of umpiring

We finally get expanded replay next season, so that should help resolve some of the controversial and blown calls. It remains to be seen how effective and efficient the system will be, but it can be adjusted as necessary. Just as importantly, the new commissioner has to work to improve consistency of ball/strike calls and reduce the episodes of ump rage.

Right now, the best umps (Eric Cooper, Chad Fairchild, Phil Cuzzi) get about 90 percent of ball/strike calls correct, according to our pitch data; the worst umps (Wally Bell, Tim Welke, Kerwin Danley, Jerry Meals) are at 86 percent. That difference may not seem like a lot, but that's a spread of 10 incorrect calls per 250 pitches. Even a 90 percent correct rate means the best umps are missing about 25 to 30 ball/strike calls a game. Maybe the human eye can't do better, but MLB needs to pay its umpire better, and in particular pay minor league umpires a living wage, so you can recruit from a wider field of candidates.

2. To DH or not to DH?

This ridiculousness has gone on too long. You simply can't have one sport with two leagues playing under different rules. The answer seems to be pretty obvious: Get rid of the designated hitter. There were only four full-time DHs this year: David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, Billy Butler and Kendrys Morales. They all batted at least 500 times as a DH. Nobody else even had 300 plate appearances (including Adam Dunn, who played a lot of first base). With so few teams actually using a DH, the resolution should be pretty clear. OK, so Butler is the youngest of those four and signed through 2015. No DH starting in 2016.

3. Oakland and Tampa Bay stadium issues

Look, both organizations have shown they can compete and win in spite of their lousy ballparks and low revenue. Part of the problem is that other teams are tired of propping up the Rays and A's. "The key here is to recognize that without the revenue-sharing dollars, we wouldn't even be able to compete or do what we're doing," Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said in August. "The other owners are looking at this and saying, 'How many years is this going to be? How much money is this going to be to a failing situation?'"

Oakland's problem is more easily solved. The A's want to move to San Jose; the Giants hold territorial rights to Santa Clara County (given to them years ago by the A's). A three-quarters majority vote of all owners can return those rights to the A's, but Selig has refused to call for a vote, wanting unanimity, including the Giants. Well, of course, the Giants would vote against it. The new commish should side with the A's here and get them, literally, out of the sewage.

4. Tanking

I've written about this issue. Buster Olney addressed it the other day. The current collective bargaining agreement makes it beneficial for teams to lose -- either to get a higher draft position (and thus more money to spend in the draft) or finish with one of the 10 worst records and thus have a protected first-round pick when signing free agents. What kind of sport essentially encourages tanking for 10 or more teams?

This season, we'll likely finish with 10 teams and maybe 11 winning 90 games ... and seven to 10 losing 90 games. You don't want to read too much into one season, but it's possible we'll see more seasons like this: Contenders and non-contenders, which makes for a less interesting sport. Back in 2004, only five teams won 90 and six lost 90. That's a healthier sport.

But the draft rules tie into another problem. For the most part, the owners love the new rules and capping the amount teams can spend in the draft. Why give more money to amateurs when you can pocket some of that money instead and buy new leather seats for your private jet? The long-range issue here is obvious: You risk talented athletes choosing other sports as signing bonuses decrease. The new commissioner should find ways to get more athletes playing baseball, rather than potentially pushing them towards a different sport.

5. The schedule

Nobody likes the fact that interleague play is now a constant throughout the season, but that's unavoidable with 15 teams in each league. But the unbalanced schedule creates issues of teams competing for the same thing (a wild-card spot) while playing vastly different schedules.

My own personal pet peeve is that the season drags too long into October. Last year's World Series games in Detroit were played in brutally cold weather. Depending on which teams advance, you're often playing your most important games of the year in your worst weather. The World Series can be as much a test of ability as a test of weather fortitude. There isn't a good solution, unless your shorten the regular season or the playoffs, add some doubleheaders, or -- god forbid -- play some World Series games during the day. The weather in Detroit in the afternoon last October was quite lovely. At night? Not so much.

Web Gems are fun. Players like them. Fans like them. There's no reason not to like them. They've been a staple on "Baseball Tonight" since the term was coined by then-producer Judson Burch prior to the 2000 season.

They're not necessarily a predictive statistic when it comes to indicating present or future defensive performance. But they give you a good sense of who in baseball is making the most eye-popping, wow-inducing plays, in the opinions of our production crew and analysts.

We're nearing the end of another season's worth of Web Gems and with that in mind, I thought I'd share some of the fun Web Gem stats that our group has compiled.

• Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado leads the majors with 18 Web Gems, a half-dozen more than the second player on the list, Diamondbacks outfielder Gerardo Parra.

We should have known that Machado would be the leader this year. He had seven in only 51 games last season, which was a 22-Web Gem pace.

This could be the first time there has been that big a gap between the Web Gem champ and the runner-up since 2009, when Ryan Zimmerman had 19 and runner-up Mark Reynolds had 13. Zimmerman's 19 are the most in any season in our five-year database.

• A brief word on Reynolds, who often gets mocked when we make reference to Web Gem historical stats on Twitter. There was a time when he was quite good at making the highlight-reel play. In the past five seasons, Reynolds has 39 Web Gems, the fourth-most of anyone in the majors.

• Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips has the most Web Gems in the past five seasons with 52. He has never been a single-season Web Gem champion.

Phillips was runner-up in both 2010 (to Troy Tulowitzki) and 2012 (to Alcides Escobar). Phillips is the only player in baseball to have at least 10 Web Gems in each of the past four seasons.

Machado's 25 Web Gems the past two seasons are the most in the majors in that span. Escobar is at the top with 35 in the past three seasons.

• Phillips has been the No. 1 Web Gem four times this season. That's one shy of the major league lead, shared by Parra and Houston Astros outfielder Brandon Barnes.

• Three players have had at least six No. 1 Gems in a season in the past five years -- Reynolds in 2009, Tulowitzki in 2010 and Escobar in 2012.

• Carlos Gomez has had the most No. 1 Web Gems during the past five seasons with 13.

Other players in double figures are Tulowitzki (12, though none this year), Phillips (11), Escobar (11) and Evan Longoria (10).

• The Royals have the most Web Gems by any team in the majors this season with 44, five more than the Orioles and nine more than the Twins. The Cardinals and Rays rank last in Web Gems with 17.

• The Mets lead the majors in No. 1 Web Gems with 11, one more than the Reds.

• If you're a major league aspirant and want to make Web Gems, your best bet season is to be a center fielder or a third baseman. Center fielders this season have 145 Web Gems, two more than those who play the hot corner.

• The rarest of Gems is the catcher gem. Catchers have 13 Web Gems this season, less than half as many as their battery counterparts (pitchers have 28).

"They clinched the division this year so if that's how they're going to act and be classless, that's their clubhouse." -- Diamondbacks infielder Willie Bloomquist, after some Dodgers celebrated their division title on Thursday by jumping in the swimming pool at Chase Field.

"He took exception to (Evan) Gattis' home run. You could tell that walking off the field. He happened to hit a home run and stood there. I just told him you can't do that. You're going to get someone hurt." -- Braves catcher Brian McCann, who scolded Marlins pitcher Jose Fernandez after Fernandez crossed home plate after a home run last week.

"When he hits a home run sometimes it presents kind of like flamboyant, but I really believe that's just how he finishes and he can't help it." -- Rays manager Joe Maddon on rookie Wil Myers' controversial home run bat flips.

* * * *

It's a game, everyone. Entertainment. Yes, it's a business, and, yes, athletes are competitive and Willie Bloomquist probably didn't enjoy seeing the Dodgers celebrate on his home field ... but can't we all just relax a little bit here? So the Dodgers jumped in the pool? Good for them, I say. Live in the moment.

So a 21-year-old rookie pitcher admired his home run a little too long? What, you don't think Babe Ruth ever stood there and watched one? Can we please get out of this "That's the way they played the game in the 1950s" mind-set, this unwritten code on how to play the game. Guess what? Baseball in the 1950s was boring! Attendance was in a steady decline for most of the '50s and '60s. Maybe watching players hit home runs and circle the bases with their heads down didn't exactly keep fans coming to the park.

Wil Myers flips his bat. So does Yasiel Puig. Good for them for adding a little flair to the game. Who didn't love Rickey Henderson? Or despise him? Which is the point: You had a strong feeling towards him one or way another, couldn't take your eyes off him, wanted to go watch him play.

Give me more bat flips. Give me pitchers who point their finger at a batter after a strikeout. Give me one-flap down home run trots. Heck, give me Puig doing The Worm.

Just don't give me a pitcher who throws at a batter or his teammate simply because he gave up a home run. Or a guy on a losing team complaining about another team's celebration.

Our newest addition to the SweetSpot network is Inside the 'Zona, a site offering analysis on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Ryan P. Morrison has followed the D-backs since Luis Gonzalez blooped the late '90s Yankees dynasty into oblivion, and by day he's an attorney representing whistleblowers under the False Claims Act. He's joined by Jeff Wiser, a professional in education who's been an avid fan of the sabermetric movement for several years.

Inside the 'Zona monitors the Arizona roster (like Thursday's post on potential September callups) and the performance of minor leaguers (like this check-in on 2013 draftees), while also offering analysis on lineup construction, pitch selection and the like.

With Patrick Corbin having such a great sophomore season, Ryan also recently looked back at the Dan Haren trade with the Angels -- a deal that netted the D-backs Corbin, Joe Saunders and Tyler Skaggs.

You can follow Ryan on Twitter at @InsidetheZona and Jeff at @OutfieldGrass24.

PHILADELPHIA -- Arizona Diamondbacks catcher James Benjamin "Tuffy" Gosewisch has played a total of eight games in the major leagues, and he's already the answer to a bizarre trivia question that dates back 35 years.

Although Gosewisch might prefer to be linked to Johnny Bench or Carlton Fisk, he's traveling in much more obscure company.

In the 18th and final inning of Arizona's 12-7 victory over Philadelphia on Saturday night, Gosewisch earned some notoriety when he made outs against two Phillies position players who were pressed into service as pitchers. First Gosewisch lined out to left field against outfielder Casper Wells. The next turn around the order, he struck out on an 81 mph fastball from shortstop John McDonald.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the last hitter to make outs against position player/pitchers in the same inning was former Toronto Blue Jays catcher Brian Milner, who grounded out against outfielder Larry Harlow and flied out against catcher Elrod Hendricks in a 24-10 win over Baltimore in June 1978.

If you don't remember Milner, there's a good reason: He logged nine at-bats in two big league games before going down to the minors, and never played another inning in the majors.

Gosewisch, a former Arizona State Sun Devil, has enough perspective to appreciate the bad days as long as they take place in a big league uniform. He logged 736 games and 2,767 plate appearances in the minors with the Phillies, Blue Jays and Diamondbacks before getting the call from Triple-A Reno in early August when Miguel Montero went on the disabled list with a back injury.

The video board at Citizens Bank Park captured Gosewisch with his head down, smiling, as he returned to the dugout following his strikeout against McDonald, a former Diamondback. It beat the alternative.

"Nobody wants to strike out against a position player, so what are you going to do?" Gosewisch said before the Phillies-Diamondbacks game Sunday. "I'm either going to get pissed or laugh about it. Johnny Mac is a good guy, and he has that on me for the rest of his life.

"I got a good ribbing last night, but not too bad. Everybody saw me laughing. It definitely helps to be a good sport. It never helps to have a bad attitude about it."

The Diamondbacks and Phillies were all a bit loopy in the aftermath of Saturday's marathon, which began at 7:06 p.m. and lasted seven hours and six minutes. It was the longest game time in the history of either franchise, and the longest MLB game, in terms of time, since Houston beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-4 on June 3, 1989. That game dragged on for 22 innings and lasted seven hours and 14 minutes.

Another piece of trivia from Elias: Wells and McDonald became the first position-player teammates to pitch in the same game since Felipe Lopez and Joe Mather took the mound for St. Louis in a 2-1, 20-inning loss to the New York Mets on April 17, 2010.

Players from both teams straggled into Citizens Bank Park on Sunday barely two hours in advance of a 1:35 p.m. getaway day matinee. After his morning briefing session with reporters, Arizona manager Kirk Gibson shared a text from his wife that read: "Woosh -- Freakin' crazy. Good thing you're a Gibson and won't require much sleep."

The Diamondbacks have been fading in the National League West race, but the longer games go, the better they get. They're 14-5 in extra innings this season, and 4-0 in games of 15 innings or longer. They’re the first team since the 1989 Dodgers to play three games of at least 16 innings in the same season.

"We seem to end up having the same amount of runs as the other team at the end of regulation, then we just kind of keep going," said pitcher Brandon McCarthy. "That's really what it boils down to. It's not a pre-planned strategy. We don't go to spring training and work on bunt plays and how to keep the game tied. I don't know why the hell it keeps happening. It's starting to get aggravating."

I just wrote about the National League Rookie of the Year debate and one of the fun things about the players involved is their ages -- Yasiel Puig is 22, Jose Fernandez just turned 21, Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran are 22. These guys are already very good and still very young.

Last week, Joe Posnanski wrote about all the young talent in the majors today and pointed out we could end up with 13 or 14 players in their age 23-or-younger season who could end up with 3.0 WAR or higher. The "record" for this category, according to Posnanski (I assume he was searching on Baseball-Reference.com) was 1978, when 14 players did it. The catch: Joe was writing about position players only.

Topping the list would be Mike Trout, with Manny Machado, Andrelton Simmons, Jean Segura, Freddie Freeman, Puig and Nolan Arenado already above the 3.0 mark. Jason Heyward is at 2.9 and on a hot streak. Eric Hosmer is at 2.7 WAR. That's nine guys who should get there with Anthony Rizzo, Brett Lawrie, Salvador Perez, Jose Iglesias and Bryce Harper between 1.9 and 2.1 WAR. Wil Myers has 1.7 WAR in about two months of play. This list doesn't even include Giancarlo Stanton, still just 23, but having a disappointing season with 1.3 WAR after leading the National League in slugging percentage last season.

So that's a lot of young talent without even talking about the pitchers.

Anyway, Joe didn't mention all the 1978 guys in his piece, so I thought it would be interesting to check out that list and see what happened the rest of their careers. Indulge me as I revisit the players of my youth, when I first started watching baseball and kept baseball cards in shoe boxes, wrapped in rubber bands.

Jack Clark: 5.9 (52.9 career WAR)
Clark finished fifth in the 1978 NL MVP vote and became one of the best hitters of the '80s (sixth in OPS+ for the decade behind Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Pedro Guerrero and Darryl Strawberry). He couldn't stay healthy, however -- during his age 27-to-30 peak years he averaged just 96 games per season. Couldn't keep his mouth shut either. Still can't keep his mouth shut.

Willie Randolph 5.8 (65.6)
Underrated player due to his defense and walks; a borderline Hall of Fame candidate by his career WAR total but fell off the ballot after one year and would appear an unlikely Veterans Committee candidate.

Jason Thompson 5.6 (24.8)
The 23-year-old first baseman for the Tigers hit .287 with 26 home runs and walks and made his second All-Star team. Looked like he'd be a big star for a long time, but it didn't happen. After a slow start in 1980, the Tigers dumped him to the Angels for Al Cowens, and then after hitting .317/.439/.526 the rest of the season for the Angels, he was traded to the Pirates for Ed Ott and Mickey Mahler -- 29-year-old part-time catcher and nobody pitcher. The Pirates were then supposed to trade Thompson to the Yankees -- basically for $500,000 in cash -- but the commissioner vetoed that trade so he was stuck with Pittsburgh. Anyway, not sure why nobody wanted him. Defense? Bad breath? Not sure the story there. Made the All-Star team in 1982 but was done by age 31.

Ellis Valentine 5.5 (16.9)
Hit .289/.330/.489, 25 home runs, 35 doubles, won a Gold Glove thanks to his cannon arm. Part of the young Expos outfield with Andre Dawson and Warren Cromartie. Hit in the face by a pitch on May 30, 1980. They say he was never the same again ... except after returning in July he hit .331 the rest of the season. Injuries and drug and alcohol problems cut his career short after that, although he straightened himself out after his retirement from baseball.

Robin Yount: 5.0 (77.1)
Was just 22, but already in his fifth season in the majors after starting for Milwaukee at age 18. Would of course go on to win two MVP Awards and get elected to the Hall of Fame. Now, looking at his season you probably wouldn't have projected him as a Hall of Famer -- he hit .293 with nine home runs and 147 hits in 123 games. But a 22-year-old with ability can sometimes take a big leap forward and Young did that in 1980.

Chet Lemon 4.9 (55.3)
A superb defender in center, although he never won a Gold Glove Award. He hit .304/.386/.482 with the White Sox from 1978 to 1981, but after a trade to the Tigers for Steve Kemp never hit .300 again, even though he was just 27 at the time of the trade. He ranks eighth among position players in WAR during his 1977-1984 peak. Pretty underrated player.

Andre Dawson 4.7 (64.4)
In his second season, hit .253/.299/.442, but with 25 home runs, 28 steals and good defense. Here's a question: At that moment in time, would you rather have had Dawson or Valentine? Valentine had the better season and both were 23, but Dawson was faster and more athletic. Neither walked much, although Dawson struck out a lot more. I think it would have been a tough call.

Eddie Murray 4.3 (68.2)
Hit .283 with 27 home runs and 70 walks at age 22, good enough to finish eighth in the AL MVP vote.

Lou Whitaker: 3.8 (74.8)
The AL Rookie of the Year in 1978, he's a slam-dunk Hall of Famer if you go strictly by WAR. Hit just 12 home runs his first four seasons but eventually topped 20 four times. Effective enough into his late 30s that even in his final year he posted an .890 OPS in a platoon role with the Tigers.

Terry Puhl: 3.7 (28.4)
He was just 21 and hit .289 for the Astros with 32 steals, a few walks and was solid defensively. Never developed too much beyond that -- hitting home runs in the Astrodome was near impossible in those days anyways -- but he was a prototypical Astros outfielder of that period with good speed and the ability to hit for average.

Lee Mazzilli: 3.3 (15.4)
A pretty good player from 1978 to 1980, when he was the toast of a bad Mets franchise -- hailing from Brooklyn made him even more popular with the Mets' faithful. Hit a big home run in the 1979 All-Star Game. Started suffering back and elbow injuries and was never the same, although the Mets squeezed Ron Darling and Walt Terrell from the Rangers in a steal of a deal.

Steve Kemp: 3.3 (19.5)
Good hitter whose career was eventually derailed by injuries. The 1978 Tigers had Thompson, Whitaker and Kemp, plus 20-year-old Alan Trammell, 22-year-old Lance Parrish and 23-year-old Jack Morris. They won 86 games. It took them only six years from there to win a World Series.

Ozzie Smith 3.2 (76.5)
He hit .258 and swiped 40 bases to finish second in the NL Rookie of the Year vote to Bob Horner (who went straight from Arizona State to the majors). Ozzie's bat stalled for his next three years in San Diego before a trade to St. Louis -- and turf -- helped him become respectable at the plate.

Garry Templeton 3.0 (27.7)
Most career hits through age-24 season since 1970: Yount, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Cesar Cedeno, Edgar Renteria, Roberto Alomar, Miguel Cabrera, Templeton.

So that's the 14. It doesn't even include Trammell (2.8 WAR), Paul Molitor (2.7) or Carney Lansford (2.6).

You still hear a lot that players are rushed to the majors these days. There's no evidence this is actually true. In 1978, there were 21 players who were 23 or younger and batted at least 500 times and 27 who batted at least 300. In 2012, those figures were 14 and 20. In 1978, 28 pitchers 23 or younger reached 100 innings compared to 12 last year. There are reasons for this -- more guys go to college now (1978 was right before the boom in college baseball), some guys are now held back in the minors to save on service time, innings are limited and so on. But it's also because the talent level is a little higher than it was 35 years ago; there's less room for a 21-year-old kid to play regularly these days.

Not all these kids today will turn into stars ... but four of those 14 from 1978 did turn into Hall of Famers.

Last week, when Paul Goldschmidt beat the Orioles the with a game-tying home run in the ninth and then a walk-off in the 11th, I wrote that Goldschmidt had become just the ninth player since 1969 to record at least seven games in a single season with a Win Probability Added of 0.40 or higher.

For the uninitiated, Win Probability Added, or WPA, measures the change in probability of winning the game caused by each batter during the game. Admittedly, the 0.40 cutoff was used to favor Goldschmidt's heroics on the season. Anyway, the player with the most 0.40+ games in a season was Bobby Bonds of the 1973 Giants, with nine. Thanks to the magic of Baseball-Reference.com, we can go back and check out those nine games.

1. April 18: Giants 4, Braves 3 (0.401 WPA)
Went 3-for-6 with two runs and a walk-off home run in the 11th.

2. May 1: Giants 8, Pirates 7 (0.784 WPA)
Only went 1-for-4, but hit a game-winning three-run double with two outs in the bottom of the ninth (the Giants scored seven runs in the inning).

3. May 6: Giants 11, Cubs 9 (0.533 WPA)
Went 3-for-6 with three runs and hit a two-run walk-off homer with two outs in the 11th.

4. May 8: Giants 9, Cardinals 7 (0.433 WPA)
Went 3-for-3 with two walks, three runs, five RBIs and two home runs.

5. May 12: Giants 5, Dodgers 4 (0.427 WPA)
Went 2-for-4 with a walk and three runs and his leadoff double in the bottom of the ninth led to the winning run.

6. June 29: Giants 14, Astros 3 (0.482 WPA)
Giants trailed 3-1 in the seventh when Bonds pinch-hit with one out and hit a grand slam.

7. July 2: Giants 9, Braves 5 (0.429 WPA)
Giants trailed 3-2 in the seventh when Bonds hit a go-ahead two-run homer with two outs.

8. July 26: Giants 6, Padres 5 (0.475 WPA)
Went 1-for-3 with three walks, including a go-ahead two-run homer in the fourth and walk during the Giants' winning rally in the 10th.

9. Aug. 11: Giants 8, Mets 7 (0.630 WPA)
Went 3-for-7 with four RBIs, including a home run, a one-out triple in the seventh in which he scored the go-ahead run, and then the game-winning RBI single in the 13th.

By the way, Baseball-Reference has complete play-by-play data back to about 1950. No players from 1950 to 1968 can match Bonds' nine 0.40 WPA games in a single season.

Also, here are the career leaders for most 0.40 WPA games:

1. Willie Mays, 56
2. Barry Bonds, 55
3. Hank Aaron, 52
4. Harmon Killebrew, 50
5. Willie McCovey, 49
6. Frank Robinson, 46
7. Eddie Murray, 43
8. Bobby Murcer, 42
9. Mickey Mantle, 41
10. Carl Yastremski, Reggie Jackson and Mike Piazza, 40

Bobby Bonds is tied for 13th at 38, with Cesar Cedeno and Harold Baines.

Bonds' season in '73 didn't go unnoticed. He hit .283/.370/.530 with 39 home runs and 43 steals -- one of the great power/speed seasons ever -- and finished third in the MVP voting behind Pete Rose and Willie Stargell. Bonds was fourth among NL position players in WAR (Joe Morgan, Darrell Evans, Rose) and fourth in WPA behind Morgan, Stargell and Cedeno.

Eric and myself conclude a fun week of guest-hosting on the Baseball Tonight podcast by discussing the Pirates-Cardinals series, the Tigers' rotation, the playoff races, instant replay and, unfortunately, Alex Rodriguez. Plus our 2016 World Series pick!

Was there anything from Tuesday night's action to talk about on the Baseball Tonight podcast? Of course there was! We could have done a three-hour show with everything that happened. Eric and myself were joined by Mark Simon as we talked Pirates-Cardinals, Paul Goldschmidt, the slumping Rays, defense and, of course, the Ridiculous Question of the Week!

Martin Prado on Paul Goldschmidt: "Every time he comes to the plate, we expect great things from him." #Dbacks

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) August 14, 2013

So, yeah, Paul Goldschmidt. Have a night, dude. Game-tying home run in the ninth. Walk-off home run in the 11th -- your third of the season and fourth walk-off hit. Another dramatic win for the Diamondbacks, a thoroughly crushing 4-3 loss for the Orioles.

The stats guys say there's no such thing as clutch hitting. We can all debate that another time. But we can separate the idea of clutch hitting from the more objective measurement of big hits. And Paul Goldschmidt has been the king of late-inning big hits in 2013.

There is a statistic called Win Probability Added, which measures the change in probability of winning the game caused by each batter during the game. A score of plus-1 or minus-1 would mean one win added or lost. (The game situation comes into play here: A home run in the ninth inning of a tie game obviously changes the win probability much more than a home run in the sixth inning of a 9-2 game.)

Goldschmidt's WPA on Tuesday was .764, according to this FanGraphs chart. Using the Play Index at Baseball-Reference.com, we find that Goldschmidt's game is the 16th this season in which a batter scored 0.7 or higher. The top WPA game belongs to Jose Bautista, who scores a 1.056 in a 4-3 win on May 22 in which he went 4-for-4 with two home runs and four RBIs, including a game-tying home run in the ninth and game-winning single in the 10th. Pretty much a one-man offense that game.

Back to our hero of the night. Goldschmidt has now had seven games this season of 0.4 WPA or higher, according to Baseball-Reference. He's just the ninth player since 1969 to have at least seven such games in a season. Here's that list:

Bobby Bonds, Giants, 1973: 9
Steve Finley, Padres, 1996: 8
Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks, 2013: 7
Prince Fielder, Brewers, 2011: 7
Mike Piazza, Mets, 2001: 7
Barry Bonds, Giants, 2001: 7
Will Clark, Giants, 1989: 7
Don Baylor, Angels, 1982: 7
Jim Wynn, Astros 1972: 7

Here are the details of Goldschmidt's seven games:

1. April 5: Diamondbacks 3, Brewers 1 (0.452 WPA)
Go-ahead double in the fourth, leadoff walk in the seventh that led to two-run rally.

2. May 7: Diamondbacks 5, Dodgers 3 (0.421 WPA)
Hit two-run homer in the ninth off Brandon League.

3. May 8: Diamondbacks 3, Dodgers 2 (0.560 WPA)
Hit two-run homer to tie it in the sixth (off Clayton Kershaw) and go-ahead homer in the eighth off Kenley Jansen.

4. June 4: Diamondbacks 7, Cardinals 6 (0.471 WPA)
Went 3-for-6 including go-ahead single in the 14th.

5. June 7: Diamondbacks 3, Giants 1 (0.486 WPA)
Hit three-run homer in the bottom of the eighth off Jeremy Affeldt.

6. Aug. 9: Diamondbacks 5, Mets 4 (0.478 WPA)
Hit walk-off home run off Scott Atchison.

7. Aug. 13: Diamondbacks 4, Orioles 3 (0.764 WPA)
Hit game-tying homer in ninth off Jim Johnson, game-winning homer off T.J. McFarland in the 11th.

Note that the list doesn't include Goldschmidt's third walk-off homer run, which came off the Marlins' Chad Qualls on June 18. He got a .302 WPA that game, as he went 1-for-4.

WPA isn't for everyone; it's a little bit of a junk stat, but when we do talk about clutch hitting, it's the essence of what people are getting at: Who gets the big hits in close games at the most critical moments?

Nobody has been better at that in 2013 than Goldschmidt. Entering Tuesday, he led the NL in WPA at 5.4, ahead of the 4.2 of Adrian Gonzalez and Freddie Freeman. Andrew McCutchen might be the NL MVP favorite right now, but when you start dissecting the MVP race, those are seven games in Goldschmidt's favor.

Wins still matter. Well, of course wins matter, you know that. That's why we play the game. I mean wins for pitchers still matter in things such as Cy Young or MVP votings.

Which gets us to Clayton Kershaw.

With about 50 games remaining, the National League MVP race is as wide open as we've seen in years. Andrew McCutchen may be the favorite right now, but he's not an on-paper landslide candidate just yet as he's on pace to drive in fewer than 100 runs (MVP voters love RBIs) and voters often overlook defensive value. Yadier Molina was a strong candidate until his recent knee injury. Joey Votto has the sabermetric numbers but not the RBIs. Paul Goldschmidt has the RBIs but the Diamondbacks may not make the playoffs. Carlos Gomez may have been the best all-around player in the league so far but players from losing teams rarely win MVP awards (the last one was Alex Rodriguez in 2003).

So, Kershaw. Only one starting pitcher in the past 25 years has won the MVP award, Justin Verlander in 2011, and he won 24 games. As dominant as Kershaw has been with that fancy 1.91 ERA, he has only 10 wins. Not his fault, of course. On Tuesday, he pitched six solid innings against the Cardinals; not a classic Kershaw effort, but he gave up just two runs, leaving in the seventh when Don Mattingly pinch-hit for him with a runner on first base and one out, removing Kershaw after just 90 pitches. I thought it was an inning early to hit for him; Kershaw was working on five days of rest, he'd thrown just 97 pitches his previous start, the Dodgers were down just one run, and it wasn't really that high leverage of a scoring situation. Anyway, Kershaw left trailing 2-1 and ended up with the loss as the Cardinals won 5-1.

That's now seven games this year in which Kershaw has allowed two runs or fewer and not earned a win. He has no wins in any starts in which he has allowed three or more runs. Compare that to, say, Detroit's Max Scherzer, who has five wins when allowing three or more runs.

Anyway, my argument is this: Ignore Kershaw's 10-8 record. He not only should be the Cy Young favorite right now, he should also be in the MVP discussion.

His chances, however, are probably slim. As we break down the NL MVP race, consider the different types of MVP winners.

The RBI Guy
Recent examples: Ryan Howard, Phillies, 2006; Justin Morneau, Twins 2006.

The first stat column many voters usually turn to is the RBI column. It’s why leadoff hitters or No. 2 hitters rarely win the award. Even more than his Triple Crown, it’s why Miguel Cabrera beat out Mike Trout last year. Even though the stat is team- and lineup-dependent, the RBI altar is still a popular place to worship.

Howard led the NL with 149 RBIs and, even though the Phillies missed the playoffs, he beat out Albert Pujols of the division-winning Cardinals with 20 first-place votes to Pujols' 12. Pujols beat out Howard in Wins Above Replacement, 8.5 to 5.2. Howard also led the NL in RBIs in 2008 and 2009 and finished second and third, respectively, in the voting.

Morneau finished second in the AL in RBIs but was named MVP even though he ranked just 23rd among AL position players in WAR. Teammate Joe Mauer was more valuable but had fewer RBIs.

Helps/hurt: This is the big advantage for Goldschmidt. He leads the NL in RBIs with 27 more than McCutchen, 35 more than Molina and 37 more than Votto.

The Best Player On a Team That Made the Playoffs Guy
Recent examples: Joey Votto, Reds, 2010; Ryan Braun, Brewers, 2011.

Votto and Pujols had basically identical numbers, so it should have at least been a toss-up. But the Reds made the playoffs, the Cardinals didn’t, and Votto collected 31 of 32 first-place votes. Braun beat out Matt Kemp in 2011 because the Brewers made the playoffs and the Dodgers didn’t.

Helps/hurt: Big advantage here for McCutchen, as most of the other leading position player candidates via WAR are on non-contenders: Carlos Gomez, David Wright, Carlos Gonzalez, Buster Posey. Plus, the Pirates are a surprise playoff team, which is kind of like earning extra credit.

The Out-of-Nowhere Surprise Guy
Recent example: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox, 2008; Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners, 2001.

The voters love this kind of player, especially if he’s small and scrappy. Pedroia had won Rookie of the Year honors but certainly nobody would have projected him as an MVP candidate heading into 2008. Pedroia was actually a good choice in a year when no player had statistical dominance, but his surprise season pushed him over the top. Same thing with Ichiro in his rookie year. Teammate Bret Boone was probably the better choice but he couldn’t match Ichiro in surprise factor.

Helps/hurt: This would normally help Gomez, but the not-playing-for-a-playoff-team factor trumps the surprise factor. Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig could be helped here, as everyone figured Ramirez was on the decline and Puig would spend the season in the minors.

The Hot in September Guy
Recent example: Vladimir Guerrero, Angels, 2004.

This is often a decisive factor for voters, who have determined that a win in September counts more than a win in April, and thus helping your team in September is better than helping your team in April. Guerrero ranked sixth among AL position players in WAR but hit .363 with 11 home runs in September and the Angels beat out the A’s by one game to win the West. Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were 2-3-4 in the voting with similar offensive numbers but the Yankees and Red Sox cruised into the playoffs. In an otherwise close MVP race, a big September can push a player over the top (see also: Chipper Jones, 1999; Jason Giambi, 2000).

Helps/hurt: To be determined. Keep in mind, however, this only helps guys who are in a tight race. Freddie Freeman could have a monster final two months but it doesn’t really matter because the Braves already have a huge lead in the NL East.

The Momentum Guy
Recent example: Justin Verlander, Tigers, 2011.

This is when groupthink starts to develop and that player rolls to the MVP award. Verlander went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and became the first starting pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986 to win the MVP. Baseball-Reference.com values him at 8.4 WAR; a great season, no doubt. But B-R rates 28 other pitcher-seasons at 8.5 WAR or better since 1987, and none of those guys won MVP awards. Only one of them (Randy Johnson in 2002) won 24 games, and he finished seventh in the voting. Behind the RBI guys. It's hard for a pitcher to get that momentum vote, but it happened with Verlander.

Helps/hurt: Kershaw isn’t going to win 20 games, let alone 24. If I had to predict, McCutchen will probably be the momentum guy. Everyone loves the Pirates' story and that will help McCutchen. But if Ramirez or Puig keep going -- despite missing two months -- they could be sneaky candidates.

The We Can’t Give the Damn Thing to Willie Mays Every Year Guy
(Also applied in various eras to Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols.)

Recent example: Jimmy Rollins, Phillies, 2007.

Rollins did have an excellent season at 6.0 WAR, but he also led the NL in outs made, which is a pretty amazing feat for an MVP.

Helps/hurt: Votto is the guy who has won before, but since he’s having just another Joey Votto year, he's probably a long shot.

The Glue Guy
Recent example: Buster Posey, Giants, 2012.

This is a guy with something that goes beyond the stats: leadership, toughness, recovery from horrific injury, you name it. The all-time glue guy MVP was probably Kirk Gibson of the Dodgers in 1988.

Helps/hurt: Definitely Molina, although he needs to get healthy soon and back in the lineup.

The Best Player in the League Guy
Recent example: Mike Trout, Angels, 2012.

Oh, wait ...

Helps/hurt: This may be the strongest argument for Kershaw. Who is the best player in the National League? The one guy you would build a team around for 2013? I believe that's Mr. Kershaw. And that's the MVP.

(Tip to DJ Gallo for the idea.)

Tristan Cockcroft joins me to discuss the wide-open NL MVP race. Starting pitchers rarely win but is Clayton Kershaw a strong candidate?

Throughout July, we're presenting 30 deals in 30 days: the best trade-deadline deal ever made by each team. We wrap up with the NL West.

THE TEAM: Arizona Diamondbacks

THE YEAR: 2000

THE SITUATION: The Phillies were on their way to a 65-97 record, their seventh straight losing season since reaching the 1993 World Series. Curt Schilling was tired of the losing ways and pushed for a trade to a contending team. He was still signed through 2001, but the Phillies were willing to accommodate. The Cardinals and Mariners reportedly came close to landing the 33-year-old right-hander, but the Diamondbacks made the winning offer.


THE TRADE: On July 26, Arizona acquired Schilling (6-6 with a 3.91 ERA) for Vicente Padilla, Travis Lee, Omar Daal and Nelson Figueroa. Schilling's request for a trade had made him a target of Phillies fans. "I will leave here with nothing but the best memories on and off the field," Schilling said. "I was booed so much less than I probably deserved to be booed here, which I don't think too many people leaving Philly can say."

THE AFTERMATH: The Diamondbacks were tied for first with the Giants on the day of the trade but faded down the stretch (12-17 in September) and finished 12 games back. GM Joe Garagiola Jr.'s comparison of Schilling and Randy Johnson to Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale would come true the next season, however, as the dynamic duo led the Diamondbacks to a dramatic World Series title. Schilling signed a new contract and would go 58-28 for the Diamondbacks, winning 22 games in 2001 and 23 in 2002 as the D-backs won the NL West again. He finished second in the Cy Young to Johnson both seasons.

With Schilling and Johnson both landing on the DL in 2003, the Diamondbacks fell to 84-78 and they traded Schilling to the Red Sox after the season for Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, Jorge De La Rosa and Michael Goss.

Similar to the Phillies' haul -- Padilla did have two 14-win seasons in Philadelphia, but Lee didn't develop into the middle-of-the-order bat projected of him -- that trade did little for the D-backs.

Eric Karabell and myself discuss the National League standings, Tim Hudson's injury and whether the Nationals are dead. One of us is still optimistic about the Nationals ... and it's not me.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Martin Prado

Prado was the key player the Diamondbacks got in return for Justin Upton in a trade with the Braves last offseason. Since playing more or less every day at a number of positions from 2009-12 in Atlanta, Prado posted a 109 adjusted OPS (100 is average). In his first year in Arizona, however, it is a meager 83. The D-Backs expected a lot more from him than they are getting, and if they intend to maintain their lead in the NL West, they will need Prado to bounce back.

Atlanta Braves: B.J. Upton

Before injuries decimated their outfield right before the All-Star break, the Braves were quite fine even with B.J. Upton failing miserably in the first year of his five-year, $75.25 million contract. B.J. himself (strained adductor muscle) joins brother Justin (calf strain), as well as Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Jordan Schafer among key position players who are injured. B.J. can mitigate a lot of that lost offense by recapturing his offensive prowess from his days with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Chicago Cubs: Starlin Castro

The Cubs thought they had one of the league's future stars at shortstop in Castro, but he has significantly regressed in his fourth season in the majors. His OPS is down by more than 120 points, he isn't stealing bases with nearly the same frequency, and his defense has by many accounts gotten worse. He is only 23 years old, but the Cubs signed him through 2019 on a seven-year, $60 million extension. Castro flaming out would be devastating to the restructured Cubs, so he needs to use the second half to put himself back on the map.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips

Phillips may be the team's top RBI guy, but he leaves plenty to be desired offensively. His current .413 slugging percentage is a career low dating back to 2006 when he started playing regularly. While he has hit plenty of home runs (12), he is only sitting on 15 doubles. Additionally, he stole 15 bases in 17 attempts last season, but has stolen only one base in three attempts this year. Phillips would be deserving of the accolades he has received this year if he were to rediscover his power and baserunning skills.

Colorado Rockies: Michael Cuddyer

The Rockies are still in it despite being four games under .500. A big reason they are even where they are is because Cuddyer is having a career year at the age of 34. His current .330 average, .391 on-base percentage and .568 slugging percentage all represent career highs, vastly exceeding his previous career bests. Some of the success is because of his home ballpark, and some of it is because of plain old luck, but the Rockies won't be able to keep up in a mediocre but highly competitive NL West if Cuddyer regresses.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Yasiel Puig

Everything turned around for the Dodgers after Puig made his major league debut June 3. Since then, they have gone 24-15, moving up from fifth place to second place while cutting into their first-place deficit by five games. Puig hit so well in a month-plus (1.038 OPS) that it merited a serious discussion about his inclusion in the All-Star Game. The Dodgers have been ravaged by injuries, particularly in the outfield, including Puig himself battling a sore hip. The Dodgers will need Puig healthy and in top form for the next two and a half months if they have aspirations to take over the NL West.

Miami Marlins: Jose Fernandez

You can watch Giancarlo Stanton, too, and you'll have exhausted all of the reasons to watch the Marlins. True, they have been playing significantly better since June than they did in the first two months, but they're still 18 games out and already making plans for 2014. Fernandez, as you may have seen in the All-Star Game, has electric stuff and at 20 years old, has a bright future as a potential ace ahead of him. Seeing him pitch once every five days is a privilege which fans of many other teams do not have.
Milwaukee Brewers: Carlos Gomez

The 2013 season has been dismal for the Brewers as they are already 18 games under .500 and 19 1/2 games out and in last place in the NL Central. One of the few pleasant surprises, though, has been Gomez. After years of fumbling around as a failed prospect, Gomez decided to toss out years of coaching advice and become a power hitter. It worked. He is setting career highs across the board and along with his great defense and baserunning, is one of the top candidates for the NL MVP award. Gomez, only 27 years old, could brighten things up for Brewers fans by taking home some hardware at the end of the season.

New York Mets: Ike Davis

If it wasn't for B.J. Upton having a terrible year, Davis would have been talked about more as he heads into the second half with an OPS barely above .500. The Mets demoted him to Triple-A Las Vegas to work on his mechanics. Under the tutelage of 51s manager Wally Backman, Davis posted a 1.091 OPS in 21 games, earning a promotion back to the majors July 5. In eight games leading up to the All-Star break, he went back to his old ways, getting only five hits (all singles) in 32 trips to the plate. Davis is only 26 years old, but the Mets can only afford to give him so much rope before they are forced to make a tough decision about his future.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels

The Phillies will likely go into the July 31 trade deadline as buyers, as they are currently only 6 1/2 games out of first place in a very winnable NL East. They may add a center fielder to replace Ben Revere and they may add a reliever to back up Jonathan Papelbon. What they likely will not add is a starter, despite Hamels' very disappointing season in the first year of a six-year, $144 million contract. He leads the NL in losses with 11 and he has a 4.05 ERA. There is some strong evidence that his changeup -- his calling card -- is not the out-pitch it used to be, and he will have to recapture the feel for it if the Phillies want to have a second-half surge.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jeff Locke

There is some solid evidence based on sabermetric defense-independent statistics that a lot of Locke's first-half success is fluky, based heavily on a paltry .228 batting average on balls in play. He has neither the swing-and-miss stuff nor the pristine control emblematic of most pitchers with an ERA in the 2.15 area. A regressing Locke could start another second-half swoon for the Pirates.

San Diego Padres: Everth Cabrera

Cabrera may be one of the most surprising stories of the 2013 season. He was never considered to be a future star, but he is hitting .291 with a NL-leading 34 stolen bases in 42 attempts. Naturally, there is some skepticism about his ability to keep it going over a full season, and carry it over into 2014. Cabrera could assuage a lot of skepticism by maintaining his current level of play over the final 66 games.

San Francisco Giants: Matt Cain

The Giants are in a similar position with Cain that the Phillies are with Hamels. Cain is sitting on a 5.06 ERA in the second year of a six-year, $127.5 million contract. He is only 28 years old, so his 2013 season could very well be a fluke, but his control has been at its worst over the past five years and he has been more homer-prone than at any other point in his career. A rebounding Cain in the second half would mean the Giants remain contenders in the NL West.

St. Louis Cardinals: Chris Carpenter

The Cardinals are really good. They are so good that no one player really strides ahead in terms of importance, not even Adam Wainwright or Yadier Molina. Chris Carpenter, however, is working his way back from back and shoulder issues and made his first rehab start Monday. Getting him back, whether as a starter or a reliever depending on his durability, could give the Cardinals the same boost he gave them at the end of the 2011 season.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg was kept out of the postseason last year as part of a predetermined plan to reduce his innings pitched. The Nationals had reached the playoffs for the first time since moving to Washington, D.C., and for the first time as a franchise since 1981, when they were the Montreal Expos. It seemed as if the assumption was that Strasburg would have plenty more postseasons in which to pitch, including 2013. The Nationals have arguably been baseball's biggest disappointment, but Strasburg can help power them into playing in October with a strong second half.

Bill Baer is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog. He runs the Crashburn Alley blog on the Phillies.