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Four of the AL East teams will be facing off head-to-head this mid-May weekend, with the Tampa Bay Rays traveling to Baltimore and the mighty Vernon Wells-led New York Yankees hosting the last-place-but-hot Toronto Blue Jays. The other team is the Boston Red Sox, hoping to gain ground playing the Minnesota Twins after an exciting win against Tampa Bay on Thursday night. This is the lone division in which four of five teams are at .500 or better, so which team is on the hot seat? It's the team that isn't .500, Toronto. The Jays have won four in a row, making Yankee Stadium a very interesting place this weekend, especially when initialed Cy Young winners R.A. Dickey and CC Sabathia face off Sunday afternoon!

Here are some other things to keep an eye on:

1. Best of the rest: With Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish having opened the Detroit Tigers-Texas Rangers series Thursday night by allowing a combined 12 runs (eight by Verlander), the pitching should improve as the Tigers will throw Anibal Sanchez and Doug Fister out there, and they're thriving with a composite 2.54 ERA and two home runs allowed in more than 100 innings. The Rangers can't match that, but keep an eye on the Sunday night ESPN matchup when lefty Derek Holland faces Fister. The big two of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are hitless in eight at-bats against Holland, while Fister has been torched by David Murphy for four home runs in 18 at-bats.

2. Who's back? The Tigers might think the division is simply theirs to lose, but Terry Francona's Cleveland Indians continue to score many runs and get good enough pitching to have won 14 of 18 games. The Seattle Mariners come to the Lake and will first get to see if right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez is really back. I'm skeptical. OK, so that's not accurate: I don't believe it. Jimenez and his new, consistent mechanics have looked good the past three outings, having permitted three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. The strikeout rate looks nice, too. I still want to see more. Felix Hernandez is scheduled to start Sunday after leaving his Yankee Stadium outing this week prematurely with back spasms. If the M's lose him, well, forget it.

3. Hello, Coors! Likewise, the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies opened their four-game set Thursday night with aces on the hill and many runs scored, and the bloated ERA of the defending champions isn't likely to look any better after a thin-air weekend in Denver. With Ryan Vogelsong struggling and perhaps soon to be replaced, many eyes will be on inconsistent Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito, scheduled to start Saturday and Sunday. Each hurler has been all or nothing this season; in 16 combined starts split evenly, 10 of them have featured two or fewer runs. The other outings have been considerably worse. The Rockies sure do hit at home, so watch out.

4. Hey, hey, hey! The first-place Atlanta Braves could get right fielder Jason Heyward back from the DL as soon as Friday for their series opener with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and they expect him to hit considerably better than his current .121 batting average. Of course, their outfielder problems don't end there. The Braves have been using either catcher Evan Gattis in left field or a Jordan Schafer/Reed Johnson platoon, but Heyward is an obvious upgrade. As for the Brothers Upton, B.J. is hitting .145. That's not a misprint. MVP candidate Justin is hitting .156 over his past nine home games. The Braves could fall out of first place with a bad weekend.

5. Tony Be Good: Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani is scheduled to start in Philadelphia on Friday night, and no matter what the hotshot rookie does he could be headed back to the minor leagues. The team's ace right-hander Johnny Cueto is to come off the disabled list Monday, and manager Dusty Baker has already given the vote of confidence to right-hander Mike Leake, who held the powerful Miami Marlins offense scoreless this week. Sorry, Tony, your 2-0 record with a 2.89 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 28 innings is impressive, but hope you kept that apartment in Louisville. There's just no room in the rotation, so enjoy Friday night.

Have a great weekend!

Let's be honest here, Justin Upton's first game back in Arizona wasn't exactly Alex Rodriguez heading back to Texas or Roger Clemens returning to Fenway Park. When he stepped up in the top of the first inning on Monday, it was mostly a milquetoast reaction from the scattered crowd at Chase Field: Some boos, some cheers, just enough of an uprising to elicit a small smile from Upton as he walked up to the plate.

Which wasn't really much of a surprise. Upton didn't demand a trade. He didn't call Phoenix a football city. The front office seemed to have more issues with Upton than the fans did, so there wasn't really much reason to rain boos upon him.

Upton had the right approach before the game, telling the media, "All this leading up to it is a little bit more than what the game will be. It's not Game 7 of the World Series and there's going to be a lot of games that come after this one, so I take it in stride and play three games on the road and get back home."

Of course, maybe that's why the Diamondbacks traded him in the first place. Where's the fire in that quote? Where's the spitting up blood in revenge? Just another game? Tell that to Kirk Gibson.

So maybe Upton sounded a little nonchalant before the game. I like that mindset: Don't make any one game too big. Baseball isn't a game played on emotion; you can't go up and down all season long or you'll be burned out by July. That doesn't mean emotion isn't part of the game or that effort isn't important; it means success resides in the consistency of effort, the repetition of doing the same things day after day.

Not that it isn't sweet to step up at certain times. As Nolan Ryan once said, "One of the beautiful things about baseball is that every once in a while you come into a situation where you want to, and where you have to, reach down and prove something."

Upton didn't have to prove anything to the Diamondbacks on Monday. Still, when he belted a 2-0 changeup from Wade Miley over the center-field wall in the sixth inning -- well beyond the high center-field wall -- you know it felt good. He chomped hard on his gum as he quickly rounded the bases, no doubt suppressing a smile as he crossed home plate and received the celebratory hand slap from brother B.J., who scored on the home run.

His teammates, however, happily greeted him upon his return to the dugout, one of many big moments for the Braves in a 10-1 victory.

It was Upton's major league-leading 13th home run, but first since April 27. In the 14 games since then he had hit .205 with 16 strikeouts, drawing 12 walks as opponents started giving him less to hit after his hot start. It was also just his second that didn't come with the bases empty. If there's one thing to nitpick about Upton's season so far it's that he's hasn't hit as well with men on base -- .184 in 49 at-bats, .167 with runners in scoring position -- but that's small sample size data and nothing to draw early conclusions from yet.

The home run will only fuel the widespread belief that the Braves swindled the D-backs in their big offseason trade, especially since Martin Prado has struggled so far for Arizona, hitting .233/285/.346, and pitcher Randall Delgado has a 9.09 ERA in Triple-A.

While the trade looks bad right now for the D-backs, it's worth noting they're still playing well with a 21-18 record, just 1.5 games worse than Atlanta's. And that record has been accomplished even though second baseman Aaron Hill has played just 10 games, Opening Day cleanup hitter Miguel Montero is hitting under .200, Jason Kubel has missed half the season, Adam Eaton has missed the entire season, Ian Kennedy and Brandon McCarthy have combined for one win in 16 starts, and closer J.J. Putz struggled before landing on the DL.

In other words, a lot has gone wrong for Arizona and they're hanging in there. One of the major offseason goals for Arizona GM Kevin Towers was to improve the team's depth and that depth has allowed them to overcome the injuries and slow starts.

So let's not grade the Upton deal just yet; if the D-backs end up winning the NL West -- which they're absolutely capable of doing -- maybe both organizations end up happy with their 2012-13 offseason. It's too early to get all emotional about things.

The hottest team in baseball is those Cleveland Indians, and we don't need instant replay to prove it. The Tribe has won 10 of 11 with terrific pitching and more than a few home runs. Mark Reynolds leaves nothing to chance with 500-foot blasts. Scott Kazmir looked like Clayton Kershaw on Thursday. And help is on the way as Michael Bourn comes off the DL this weekend, just in time for an AL Central matchup with the Detroit Tigers. Are the Indians for real? Well, this isn't the first time the franchise has overachieved early on, just to disappoint later. This weekend they get Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Rick Porcel ... well, they get Max and Justin. Good luck!

Here are other things you need to keep an eye on for this weekend!

1. Underachievers: Two teams not exactly playing quality baseball are the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox, but they're in the spotlight Sunday night on ESPN. Pitching has been an issue for each squad, but on Sunday the likes of Dylan Axelrod (Friday starter) and Jerome Williams (Saturday) step aside for lefties C.J. Wilson and Chris Sale. Can the Angels contend out West? Well, let's see them get comfortably ahead of the Houston Astros first. The White Sox are already in the cellar. If these teams don't turn things around, they'll be sellers. Look for the Angels to turn things around sooner, especially with Jered Weaver and Ryan Madson close to returning.

2. Pass the suntan lotion: While Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz takes offense to allegations his body has been illegally aided, ace right-hander Clay Buchholz has remained relatively quiet about Toronto Blue Jays announcer Jack Morris accusing him of doctoring baseballs with a foreign substance on his arm, later suggested to be a mixture of suntan lotion and rosin (and for a night game in a dome!). Well, what better way for Buchholz to make a statement than in person as the last-place Blue Jays visit Fenway Park. Buchholz is scheduled to face lefty Mark Buehrle Saturday afternoon. In this case suntan lotion is reasonable. If Buchholz pitches poorly, though, it's not going to help his reputation. I'll say he pitches well.

3. Hit on 20: Two first-place teams with more than 20 wins continue their series out West as the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants meet in what could be -- you'll hear this quite a bit over the next four months -- a playoff preview. After all, these teams faced off in the 2010 playoffs. The worst of the starting pitchers still pending in the series is, believe it or not, Tim Lincecum. Hey, the numbers support that. Lincecum is scheduled to meet Kris Medlen Sunday, and while the two-time Cy Young Award winner has had much success against current Braves hitters in the past, that's totally irrelevant. Lincecum isn't the same pitcher he used to be. His underwhelming numbers look pretty much on par with his 2012 ones, with the high ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate.

4. Carlos in Charge: One of the best players many have never heard of will bring a 14-game hitting streak and an NL-leading .386 batting average to Cincinnati this weekend. Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Carlos Gomez is hitting .491 during this stretch, and the highlight pitching matchup comes right away on Friday, as Cincinnati Reds rookie lefty Tony Cingrani faces right-hander Yovani Gallardo. It's also an important outing for Cingrani, with right-hander Johnny Cueto (oblique) nearing a return to the active roster. It's either Cingrani or Mike Leake who will lose a rotation spot, and while it might seem an obvious choice, it probably isn't to Dusty Baker.

5. Harvey's bar: New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey has set the bar quite high in the early going, posting a 1.28 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 4-0 mark through seven starts, and Sunday he gets to face another underwhelming offense in the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's possible Harvey really is a legit Cy Young fave, but here are the teams he's dominated so far: Padres, Phillies, Twins, Nationals, Dodgers, Marlins, White Sox. Not exactly top offenses. Still, Harvey is must-see TV each time out. A few years ago the same could be said of lefty Francisco Liriano; he's a Pirate now, scheduled to make his season debut Saturday, but after posting an ERA on the wrong side of 5 three of the past four seasons, it's tough to muster interest in him.

Have a great weekend!

The most common complaint we run into when discussing advanced defensive metrics is that there isn't a full grasp of how these ratings are computed.

With the help of Baseball Info Solutions, we're going to write a few articles that attempt to go "under the hood" when it comes to looking at advanced defensive metrics.

In other words, why does a player rate as well or as poorly as he rates?

We're going to begin with a look at the amazing stats compiled by Atlanta Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons.

Simmons is a player for whom there is agreement between the scouts and the advanced stats. Scouts describe him as an amazing defender. The numbers show that to be true.

Entering Wednesday, Simmons had played 680 innings in his major league career and the Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) numbers have him with 30 defensive runs saved. He had 19 in 426 innings last season and already has a major-league best 11 in 254 innings in 2013.

For a little perspective, that's an incredible number for what amounts to less than half a season's worth of play. No shortstop has had 30 defensive runs saved in a full season since Troy Tulowitzki had 31 in 2007.

So how do you accumulate so many defensive runs saved so quickly?

It helps when you can make plays like this and this.

But it also helps when you almost always make the play you should make.

The defensive runs saved stat relies heavily on a measure of how often a player turns a batted ball into an out. BIS video-trackers chart every batted ball from every game, labeling where the ball was hit and how fast it was traveling. They can thus assign every ball a value, of how often it was turned into an out.

If a fielder makes a play on a ball in which players at his position made an out 75 percent of the time, he receives a credit of 0.25 (1.00 minus 0.75, to account for being better than 25 percent of fielders ). If he fails to get the out, he is debited 0.75 points (losing value because 75 percent were able to make the play.

We're regularly wowed by Simmons' ability to make the great play. Those plays we linked to are balls that are hits 70 percent and 92 percent of the time, respectively.

But a separator for him is how often he makes the good-to-routine play. BIS looked at every opportunity a fielder had to make a play on a ball in which others at his position recorded an out at least half the time. Since the start of last season, Simmons got outs on 230 of those 244 balls -- a 94 percent conversion rating.

The next-best among the top 50 shortstops in chances was Pete Kozma at 91 percent, which for Simmons makes him about eight plays better than the next-best player. The average shortstop among the top 50 had a conversion rate of 86.5 percent, meaning they would have gotten about 19 fewer outs than Simmons.

Then there's the shortstop the Braves started last season with -- Tyler Pastornicky. His conversion rate was only 73.1 percent -- the worst of any of the 50 checked. A player with a 73 percent conversion rate on 244 chances would get 178 outs. That's 52 fewer than Simmons!

Here's one other stat to consider with regard to Simmons' difference-making abilities.

Last season, in Atlanta's first 32 games, opposing hitters had a .321 "reached-base" percentage (hits plus errors divided by at-bats) when they hit a groundball to the left of the second-base bag. This season, in the first 32 games, their reached-base percentage on grounders to the left of the second-base bag was only .206.

Point being: These metrics don't just pull numbers out of thin air. There are reasons each player has the value he does. We look forward to sharing more of this with you as the season progresses.

Scott Spratt from Baseball Info Solutions contributed research for this article.

Crazy night in baseball -- Matt Harvey's near-perfect game, the Yankees getting shut out at Coors Field, ninth-inning wins for the Blue Jays (a victory made less joyous after J.A. Happ was hit in the head by a line drive) and Diamondbacks, Yuniesky Betancourt homering again -- but the most stunning result happened in Cincinnati, where the Reds hit back-to-back home runs with two outs off Craig Kimbrel to defeat the Braves 5-4.

It was just the second time in 30 years that a team hit back-to-back home runs with two outs in the ninth to win a game (Nick Green and J.D. Drew did it for the Braves in 2004). That it came off Kimbrel, regarded as the game's best closer, was all the more shocking.

First, Devin Mesoraco, pinch-hitting, lined a 3-2 low fastball just over the fence in right-center to tie it and then Shin-Soo Choo hit his second homer of the game, off another low fastball, for the improbable walk-off.

We all remember how dominant Kimbrel was last season. Not only did he strike out over half the batters he faced, he allowed just four extra-base hits -- three home runs and a double. He's now allowed three home runs and two doubles in 2013 in just 13.1 innings and has blown three save chances -- and the Braves lost all three games. You can point to his still-great strikeout totals (21) but the bottom line is Kimbrel has not done the job. That's three losses for the Braves in games they led entering the ninth inning, after losing just one such game a year ago.

In 2012, the 30 teams combined to lose just 111 such games --3.7 per team. So unless Kimbrel is perfect the rest of the way, the Braves' ability to protect ninth-inning leads will likely be worse than the average major league team.

Making Kimbrel just another overrated closer.

Other quick thoughts:

• Adam Rubin has the story on Harvey's dominant performance against the White Sox -- he allowed only Alex Rios' infield single, a play Ruben Tejada could have made if he'd played it a little more aggressively. Batters are hitting .133 off Harvey so far. He joins a list of notable no-decisions in recent years, a great list dug up by ESPN Stats & Info: Randy Johnson (May 8, 2001, 9 IP, 3 H, 20 SO); Kevin Millwood (Aug. 28, 1999, 10 IP, 2 H, 9 SO); Francisco Cordova (July 12, 1997, 9 IP, 0 H, 10 SO). Cordova and teammate Ricardo Rincon ended up combining for a 10-inning no-hitter that day for the Pirates.
• Paul Goldschmidt hit a two-run homer off Brandon League in the ninth to give the Diamondbacks a 7-5 win over the terrible Dodgers, but check out these two plays from Didi Gregorius. I wonder if he makes that play on Rios ...
• Not to be outdone, check out these two plays from Atlanta's Andrelton Simmons.
• Adrian Beltre, however, had the play of the night to rob Yuniesky Betancourt. The Brewers beat the Rangers anyway as they scored five in the first inning -- including Betancourt's eighth home run.

Beyond the hoopla involving various Braves and slugging exploits, it might be easy to forget that their highest-paid position player -- Dan Uggla -- is off to a bad start this season. Hitting just .184/.304/.367 in his age-33 season after the weekend’s action, and striking out 35 percent of the time, you might reasonably worry about the back half of the Braves’ five-year investment in him now that he’s in the hump year of his $62 million deal.

That’s if you’re in the habit of weeping over other people’s expenses, but that’s not what is really interesting about Uggla at the moment. Instead, it’s more interesting that at the same time that he has started to slip at the plate, he might have begun to accrue value on defense, a reversal of fortune that serves as a reminder that players don’t always do things you expect.

Anyone else remember how Jeff Kent started his career? He may go to the Hall of Fame as a second baseman, but at the beginning of his career as a Blue Jays farmhand, there was considerable speculation he’d need to move to third base. Not that coming up in the organization that already had eventual Hall of Famer Roberto Alomar at second base helped much. After mostly playing third for the Jays in ’92, not even getting swapped to the Mets in the David Cone trade secured Kent’s future at second base. He spent three years there before spending most of ’96 back at third, and it wasn’t until he wound up with the Giants in 1997 that he was finally at second base to stay. While Baseball Info Solutions suggests Kent cost his teams almost a full win on defense per 1,200 innings afield, he still had the best part of his career as an offensive star ahead of him despite his limitations in the field.

Thinking about Uggla’s career path can’t help but remind me of Kent. Not because I think Uggla is going to follow Kent and be a better player in his 30s than he was in his 20s -- anything but. Uggla’s declining numbers as a Brave, especially his slipping below a .400 SLG last year, indicate that isn’t likely. Instead, I’m reminded because Uggla, like Kent, was dogged from the outset of his career by speculation that he’d need to move off second base someday soon after getting initially pegged as a utility type by prospect mavens. Uggla’s three errors in the 2008 All-Star Game probably didn’t help matters, but the lack of any distinguishing gift afield certainly didn’t endear him to scouts.

Sabermetric tools haven’t been any kinder in their evaluations of his leather work. BIS’ Defensive Runs, Total Zone and Ultimate Zone Rating would generally rate his defense around a full 10 runs or a full win in the negative as a full-season regular -- just like Kent. Which means that, just like Kent, he's had to deliver at the plate to make him worth playing.

Which Uggla did. He ripped 154 home runs as a five-year regular for the Marlins, and another 36 in his first season in Atlanta. And even as he started losing value at the plate last season, he nevertheless led the NL in walks last year. You would think those sort of things would make him a sabermetric favorite, but not so much.

When the Braves traded for Uggla and gave him the extension that will keep him in Atlanta through 2015, it was easy to see how he might eventually slide over into Chipper Jones’ spot at third once the all-time great hung up his spikes. But after Jones stuck around longer than expected, there’s now little reason to question leaving Uggla at second. That’s because even as his numbers at the plate drop, his fielding performance as measured by advanced metrics switched from negative to positive. Even his UZR, better at evaluating some positions than others -- with second base being one of the spots it does best with -- crept into positive territory when grading Uggla’s defense, grading him 4.2 runs above average last year (and 3.8 per 150 games). Or, almost a win and a half better on defense over a full season. Maybe that’s a one-year blip, and maybe defensive data is reliably inconsistent enough to only suggest broadly how good a player is, not define it precisely.

But if overall the metrics are starting to grade Uggla more charitably, and you add that to a few seasons to come working with Andrelton Simmons up the middle, then you might be forgiven if you start thinking that, yeah, maybe Frank Wren & Co. made the right call in terms of getting Uggla with the intention of leaving him at the keystone. You might weep about the expense if you’re part of that crowd shrieking for optimal spending strategies, but that's true of most big-money deals. On a practical note, Uggla’s deal certainly didn’t handicap the Braves’ ability to add the Uptons this winter.

Certainly, some of the game’s defensive gambles at second base have flopped. I always think of Keith Miller and later Mark Teahen, and I’m sure there are Braves fans who remember Ron Gant’s brutal rookie season in the field at second. But sometimes the payoff in terms of what you get on offense and the hits you take on defense more than balances out, which is part of the reason Uggla became an asset making eight large annually in the first place. Because adding an extra bopper in the age of all-time-high strikeout rates and fewer balls in play than ever before gives you one more bat to help keep the ball out of the defense’s hands and put it over the fence. This goes some way toward explaining why the Cardinals are rolling the dice with Matt Carpenter as a second baseman this season. It’s why the Mets did likewise with Daniel Murphy last year, or the Pirates did so with Neil Walker in 2010.

While the world will always have room for those “true” second-base scrappers who seem to define the position in the mind’s eye of so many, these days everyone’s willing to get a little winning Uggla if there are a few extra runs -- and wins -- to net by taking an unglovely risk up the middle.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

We've brought back the Defensive Player of the Month Award for the 2013 season, and our choice for April, Orioles third baseman Manny Machado, was in the ESPN spotlight with a pair of stories on Tuesday.

The Stats & Info Blog ran through Machado's defensive credentials since his recall. Breaking those down into those accumulated in the season's first month, they are:

--5 defensive runs saved, tied with Evan Longoria and Matt Dominguez for the most in the majors at third base.

--13 "Out of Zone" plays (in other words, plays made outside the zones in which third basemen most often turn batted balls into outs), tied for the most with Dominguez.

--6 Web Gems, the most of any player in baseball, and twice as many as any of the eight other nominees we considered combined.

The voting was handled by ESPN.com writers, baseball analysts and researchers from ESPN and Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), and includes Doug Glanville, Jayson Stark, Jonah Keri and Eric Karabell. Each voted for a first-, second- and third-place finisher, with points awarded on a 5-3-1 basis

Machado was a well-deserved winner, earning seven of the 10 first-place votes, but also getting defensive props for the month were:

Starling Marte, Pirates LF
Marte was the runner-up to Machado in our voting. He led major league left fielders with seven defensive runs saved, three more than any other player at that position.

One of the reasons that Marte rates so highly statistically is because he had two home run-robbing catches during the month -- in other words, plays that directly saved runs. They weren’t your classic Mike Trout, scale-the-wall leaping grabs. In each instance, Marte raced back to a low left-field fence and made a reaching grab to snag a would-be home run.

For more on Marte's impact this month, check out the ESPN Insider piece from Scott Spratt on the significant improvements to the Pirates' defense.

Evan Longoria, Rays/Matt Dominguez, Astros
This was a good month for third basemen. We mentioned that Longoria and Dominguez finished tied with Machado in runs saved at the position.

Longoria had three Web Gems, second most among our nominees, and was slightly better than Dominguez in terms of good play/misplay & error ratio (documented by Baseball Info Solutions' video tracking).

Norichika Aoki/Carlos Gomez, Brewers
Aoki and Gomez both had great months from a statistical perspective. Aoki led right fielders with nine defensive runs saved. Gomez had the most among center fielders with seven.

It seemed odd to us that both had such high ratings, and in surveying Brewers fans on Twitter, we got a partial explanation why. The Brewers' coaching staff has been playing their outfielders, particularly Aoki, very deep. That's allowed them to take away a few potential extra-base hits, with a limited cost thus far.

That's reflected in both their numbers. BIS' range rating (a "plus-minus system") has Aoki taking away 17 bases above what the average fielder would take away on balls hit to the deepest parts of the park (in other words, a bunch of extra-base hits) and being five bases below average on balls hit to the shallowest parts of the outfield. Gomez has taken away 10 bases on deep balls, and one on the shallow balls.

It's an interesting strategic decision, and one that bears watching throughout the regular season to see if the numbers hold up.

Andrelton Simmons, Braves
This isn't the first time we've talked about Simmons' defense and it certainly won't be the last. Simmons led shortstops with six defensive runs saved for the month. He converted 92 percent of the balls hit into shortstop "zones" (the areas in which a shortstop gets outs more than half the time) into outs, second best in the majors to Cliff Pennington.

Simmons had an outstanding month. Machado just happened to be a little bit better.

In Tim Hudson's major league debut, Tony Phillips was his second baseman, Olmedo Saenz played third base and Tim Raines played left field. Hudson doesn't seem like he's that old, but that was back in 1999 in a game at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, which means he has been doing this baseball thing for a bit of time now.

Hudson pitched five innings and struck out 11 Padres, leaving with a no-decision.

"He's got outstanding stuff," Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane said after that game. "He needs to learn the league, learn pitch selection and get better with experience. He's an athlete and has the opportunity to be an outstanding pitcher in this league for a long time."

Beane was right about that one.

He also went 1-for-1 at the plate with a walk. The man always could hit. He earned his first win five days later over the Los Angeles Dodgers, earning a beer shower from his teammates. "Who knows where Hudson goes from here? For now, he's a show worth seeing, a slender right-hander who can throw three pitches for strikes," wrote Gary Peterson in the Contra Costa Times.

Fourteen years later, Hudson is still going strong -- strong enough that there's an outside shot he's heading to the Hall of Fame. As Beane said on that June night so many years ago, Hudson is an athlete. He was a star two-way player at Auburn and that athleticism has helped him adapt through the years as his stuff has changed and his velocity has dropped. It has helped him to recover quickly from Tommy John surgery in 2008. It has helped to overcome his status as a short right-hander (he's listed at 6-foot-1, but that article written after his first start said he was 5-11, which he may reach in his spikes). It has helped him to remain a solid, underrated starter at the age of 37, a key reason for Atlanta's success in recent seasons.

Hudson beat the Nationals 8-1 on Tuesday night to earn his 200th career win and did so in style, taking a no-hitter into the fifth while pitching seven brilliant innings, doubling off the wall in left-center to start a two-run rally in the second and then hitting on opposite-field home run off Zach Duke -- and off Bryce Harper's glove -- in the fifth inning for his third career homer. That's a night worthy of another beer shower.

"It was a fun game," Hudson said. "Obviously, it's kind of surreal. No one expects to hit a home run."

For the Braves, it was their fifth victory in five games against the Nationals. For Hudson, it was one of the defining moments of his career, as he became the third active pitcher to reach 200 wins (joining Andy Pettitte and Roy Halladay) and the 110th pitcher reach 200.

As for that Hall of Fame thing, we can start here, with the highest winning percentages since 1901 for pitchers with 200 wins:

1. Whitey Ford (236-106, .690)
2. Pedro Martinez (219-100, .687)
3. Lefty Grove (300-141, .680)
4. Christy Mathewson (373-188, .665)
5. Roy Halladay (201-103, .661)
6. Roger Clemens (354-184, .658)
7. TIM HUDSON (200-105, .656)
8. Mordecai Brown (239-130, .648)
9. Randy Johnson (303-166, .646)
10. Pete Alexander (373-208, .642)

The next three guys are Mike Mussina, Jim Palmer and Andy Pettitte. OK, this is all pretty impressive company, and while winning percentage is obviously team-dependent to a certain extent and Hudson has played on two successful franchises in Oakland and Atlanta, it's certainly not insignificant. It's at least a starting point to put Hudson in a Hall of Fame discussion if he continues pitching well for another three or four years and gets into the 240-win range.

His career ERA of 3.43 may not blow you away, but remember that he pitched much of his career in the middle of the high-octane PED-era. His park- and league-adjusted ERA+ of 125 is tied with Palmer and John Smoltz at 20th among the 89 pitchers since 1901 to win 200 games. That's a better adjusted ERA than Juan Marichal, Bob Feller, Don Drysdale, Warren Spahn, Bert Blyleven, Tom Glavine, Gaylord Perry and Steve Carlton, to name a few big names.

The point: The guy can pitch. Sure, the ERA will eventually rise a few ticks and the winning percentage will likely drop a few points as he ages. Some would argue that Hudson has never been the best pitcher in his league, which is a fair statement. But a lot of Hall of Fame pitchers were never the best in their league and Hudson has been one of the best -- seven times in the top 10 in ERA, seven times in the top 10 in WAR (with a best of 7.5 in 2003, ranking third among AL pitchers), seven times in wins and six times in innings. His career WAR of 54.4 is 77th all-time.

He's not there yet, which is OK. That means hopefully we'll get to continue watching the guy with the great sinker for a few more years. Have a beer with your shower, Tim.

With apologies to the nice starts of the Pirates and Rockies, the most important story line of April has been the Braves' opening up a 3.5-game lead over the Nationals in the NL East.

Considering the importance of winning the division and avoiding the ridiculous wild-card play-in game, the last thing the Braves wanted to do was dig a hole and try to catch the Nats from behind. Atlanta's 16-9 start -- which includes a 3-2 win over Washington on Monday when No. 5 starter Julio Teheran faced off against Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg -- is even more impressive when you consider everything that has gone wrong for the Braves so far:

• Six-time All-Star catcher Brian McCann hasn't played a game.
• First baseman Freddie Freeman missed 14 games.
• Jason Heyward is hitting .121 and is currently on the DL after an appendectomy.
• B.J. Upton is .146.
• Dan Uggla is hitting .177.
• Teheran scuffled through 5.1 innings on Monday but allowed just two runs -- lowering his ERA to 5.08.

Plus, they Braves had to play 16 of their first 25 games on the road. Of course, a lot has gone right, beginning with Justin Upton hitting .304 with 12 home runs, Andrelton Simmons playing Gold Glove defense at shortstop, Evan Gattis emerging from Double-A to his six home runs, drive in 14 runs and turn into a cult hero while filling in for McCann, and the bullpen going 5-1 with a 2.07 ERA.

Most importantly, the Braves are now 4-0 against the Nationals, which means the Braves earn an A as I hand out my grades for April in the National League. Justin Upton earns an A+ for his monster month -- only four players have hit more home runs in April (Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols share the April record with 14) and only Bob Horner (14 in July 1980), Andruw Jones (13 in June 2005) and Ozzie Virgil (13 in May 1987) have hit more in a calendar month in Atlanta Braves history.

The Nationals, meanwhile, earn a C- for a lackluster 13-13 start -- they're 5-1 against the Marlins and 8-12 against the other major league opponents on their schedule. The Nationals also reported that Strasburg experienced forearm tightness during Monday's game and will be examined on Tuesday. Strasburg walked four while allowing just two runs in six innings against the Braves, but he hasn't been the Strasburg of 2012, or at least the Strasburg of the first three months of 2012. His strikeout rate is down, left-handed hitters have a .391 OBP against him and his ERA is 3.13, ranking just 26th in the NL. Strasburg earns a C, but teammate Bryce Harper earns an A+.

Some other NL grades for April:

Pirates bullpen: A. A key to Pittsburgh's lead in the NL Central has been a pen that has gone 6-2 with a 2.59 while pitching the second-most innings in the majors and allowing a .202 average, second behind Kansas City's .201 mark. Closer Jason Grilli has gone 10-for-10 in saves and has allowed one run in 11 innings.

Matt Harvey, Mets: A. I'd give him an A+, but he actually allowed a run against the Marlins on Monday. Harvey is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA and has held opponents to a .153 average. He did throw 121 pitches in just 5.1 innings against the Marlins, but more than anything that serves to show that Harvey has room to get even better. Which is a scary idea if you're a National League hitter.

Marlins: D-. Last in the majors in batting average, home runs, slugging percentage, OPS and ownership.

Mat Latos and Homer Bailey, Reds: A. It seems like there's a perception that the Reds are an explosive offensive team, but that wasn't the case last year (ninth in the NL in runs scored despite playing in a hitter's park) and while the Reds are second in the NL in runs scored in 2013, they also rank ninth in slugging percentage. The Reds rotation, however, was terrific last year and has been terrific again, second to the Cardinals with a 2.97 ERA. Latos and Bailey remain two of the more underrated starters in the NL. Latos threw six shutout innings against the Cardinals on Monday, picking up his second win and lowering his ERA to 1.83. Bailey is 1-2 thanks to poor run support but has a 2.81 ERA. The two have combined for 69 strikeouts and just 17 walks, and when Johnny Cueto returns from the DL, he might give the Reds the best starting pitching trio in the league.

Cardinals bullpen: F. St. Louis starters are 14-6 with a 2.20 ERA. St. Louis relievers are 0-5 with a 5.89 ERA and .301 average allowed.

Pablo Sandoval's waistline: F.

Pablo Sandoval's bat: B.

The decision by the Brewers to sign Yuniesky Betancourt: D-. I mean, really ... Yuni was going to help the Brewers?

Yuniesky Betancourt: B+. He's hitting .286/.305/.532 and has five homers and 20 RBIs in 23 games, helping the Brewers to fight through injuries to Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart. Don't you love baseball?

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies: A. He's back, he's hitting, he's fielding and the Rockies are in first place. The Rockies have to hope that the strained shoulder Tulo suffered on Sunday isn’t serious (he sat Monday’s game, but there are no plans for a trip to the DL).

Matt Kemp, Dodgers: D-. Heading into Monday's games, FanGraphs rated Kemp 33rd among 36 full-time NL outfielders in WAR -- ahead of only Juan Pierre, Jon Jay and Ben Revere.

Starlin Castro, Cubs: C. I have to remind myself he's still just 23, but Castro is in his fourth season and just hasn't that much with the bat. He's hitting .271 with two home runs, but his approach -- just three walks -- is still limiting his upside. A hitter with an OBP under .300 just isn't that valuable.

Weather in Colorado: F. Please, baseball, don't play games when the weather is below freezing.

The final weekend of April is upon us and while it's still too early for most teams struggling in the standings to panic, that doesn't mean there won't be some panicking anyway. For example, big things were expected from the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels, but barring a big winning streak to close April those teams will start May with more losses than wins. This weekend the Blue Jays visit Yankee Stadium, while the Angels will be sleeping in Seattle, and the pressure is on. Here is what else you need to know for this weekend:

Revenge! Earlier this month defending division champs Cincinnati and Washington met in Ohio, and the Reds had the edge, taking the first game 15-0 and the third game 6-3, beating Stephen Strasburg. This series began on Thursday with a blowout Nationals win, and continues through the weekend. This could certainly be a playoff preview, but will the Nationals still be relying on Saturday starter Dan Haren by October? And what about the Reds with rookie lefty Tony Cingrani, scheduled to start Sunday? Haren hasn't retired a hitter in the sixth inning of any of his four starts, and while he searches for answers, don't be shocked when the Nationals upgrade as the year goes on. Cingrani has been terrific, and Sunday will be a test, but regardless of statistics he could be headed back to the minors soon when Johnny Cueto is healthy.

Surprises no more: A year ago today the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics seemed more likely to be last-place teams rather than playoff entrants, but the rest was history. Each team is off to a strong start and they'll continue their series, which also began Thursday (with an Orioles victory), in the Bay Area. Right-hander Bartolo Colon comes off a rain-shortened shutout (seven innings at Fenway Park) and is Sunday's scheduled starter. Colon, soon to be 40, is 3-0 already with a 2.42 ERA and he's issued one walk while striking out 17. How does he do it? Nine out of every 10 of his pitches are fastballs, and he's still hitting 90 mph on the radar gun, so give him credit for location, location and more location.

Bullpen follies: In one bullpen you've got the best closer in the business in Craig Kimbrel. In the other it's Jose Valverde, unemployed all winter, in Single-A ball when this week began and now closing again. It's quite the difference! The Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers are likely playoff teams no matter how their bullpens evolve (each bullpen will be fine) and face off in Detroit in the lone interleague series. The Braves have the pitching edge, as they avoid Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, and their trio of Paul Maholm, Kris Medlen and Mike Minor bring a composite 1.65 ERA with them. The Tigers will send right-hander Rick Porcello to the mound Saturday, coming off an outing in which he was charged with nine runs in the first inning at Anaheim. Still only 24 but with a career ERA of 4.67 in more than 700 innings, those expecting Porcello to suddenly emerge as a star might be waiting a really long time. Minor and the worthy Doug Fister are scheduled to meet on Sunday night on ESPN.

Worst of the worst: Meanwhile, the battles aren't solely between contending teams. The Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins certainly aren't good teams, but that doesn't mean there isn't much to watch. For the dysfunctional Marlins, it's all about outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, off to miserable start. For those blaming the lack of offense around him I ask, who exactly protected Stanton in the lineup last year, Jose Reyes and Emilio Bonifacio? For the Cubs, it's worth tuning in if they have a ninth-inning lead. Pick the over on potential Carlos Marmol bases on balls. Tune in to this series and get a few laughs.

From Cy to Sigh: Every R.A. Dickey outing is worth a look, just to see how the knuckleball will be floating, and so far it seems last season's NL Cy Young award winner is even less sure than normal where it's going. Dickey's numbers are a bit inflated (4.66 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), likely in some part due to neck and back stiffness that he says has affected the knuckleball's velocity. Dickey has never started a game at Yankee Stadium, and it's not exactly a great offensive squad he'll face (Jayson Nix! Lyle Overbay! Brennan Boesch!), but if the Blue Jays are going to contend in the AL East, they'll need better pitching than they’ve received.

Enjoy your weekend!

Some thoughts on Thursday's slate of games ...

• ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski wrote the other day that it's time to break up the Phillies and it's hard to argue with that assessment after their recent results. The Pirates won 6-4 to take three out of four in the series, holding the Phillies to 10 runs in four games and dropping Philly to 9-14 while the Pirates improved to 13-9. Cliff Lee went seven innings but threw 122 pitches and left with the game tied and the Pirates then jumped on Phillippe Aumont, with Garrett Jones' pinch-hit two-run double the big blow. The Pirates are fourth in the majors in ERA but it's reminding me of two years ago when there was a lot of smoke and mirrors and the pitching fell apart in the second half. Right now, the staff ranks 25th in strikeout/walk ratio and second in lowest BABIP.
• Alex Gordon did this in the 10th inning as the Royals beat the Tigers 8-3. Gordon's blast was helped set up by an intentional walk to ... wait ... Jeff Francoeur. There were runners on second and third with one out with Phil Coke pitching and lefty-hitting catcher George Kottaras on deck, so you can sort of understand Jim Leyland's move. But I'm rarely a fan of the intentional walk to load the bases since it forces the pitcher to throw a strike. In this case, Coke could not, and Kottaras walked to force in the go-ahead run. Why not bring in righty killer Al Alburquerque to face Francoeur? He'd thrown 26 pitches the day before, but you'd think he could face one batter.
• An intentional walk that worked: Rangers up 2-1 in eighth, runners at second and third with one out, Tanner Scheppers walks Joe Mauer and then gets Josh Willingham to ground into the 6-4-3 double play. The difference there: Mauer is better than Francoeur and a tough guy to strike out.
• The Blue Jays hit Rajai Davis and Munenori Kawasaki 1-2. Shockingly, they lost 5-3 to the Yankees. Injuries or not, John Gibbons needs to stop doing things like this if the Blue Jays are to be taken seriously as playoff contenders.
• Carlos Peguero did this for the Mariners. His 451-foot monster blast was third-longest at Safeco Field. No. 1: Barry Bonds off a young (and chunkier) Felix Hernandez in 2006. (Grainy video here.) Peguero isn't really a major league player, but at this point neither is Raul Ibanez.
• Condolences to the family of former Braves pitcher Rick Camp, who died at the age of 59. Camp was involved in one of the most memorable games of the 1980s, the July 4, 1985 game against the Mets. Camp hit his only major league home run in the 18th inning to tie the game 11-11 (the Braves would lose 16-13 in 19 innings). Here's video of that home run (the setup by Braves announcer John Sterling and the reaction by Mets left fielder Danny Heep are classic) and here's the box score.

 
There have been sporting events played in cold weather through the years in Denver, but most of those involved John Elway hitting wide receivers for touchdown passes, not Justin Upton hitting baseballs through the chill of a late-April deep freeze.

The Braves and Rockies entered Tuesday's doubleheader tied with baseball's best record and left with numb fingers and toes, hot-chocolate stains on their jerseys and a new appreciation for domed stadiums. The Braves also left with two victories and the red-hot Upton left with two more home runs, one in each game, his 10th and 11th, putting him in shouting distance of the April record of 14 shared by Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez.

The amazing thing is that he could even swing a bat while wearing approximately seven layers of clothing. Game-time temperature for the afternoon portion of the freezebill was 23 degrees, the coldest temperature for a game since STATS began recording such info in 1991. Upton, wearing garb suitable for climbing Pikes Peak, hit a 3-2 changeup from Jeff Francis on a low line to center in the top of the first; it was a pretty good pitch, low and away, but Upton showed off his tremendous power and bat speed with a quick rip through the ball.

In the nightcap, with a game-time temperature a balmy 26 degrees, Upton followed a fifth-inning home run by his brother, B.J., with a first-pitch blast off Jon Garland to right-center, a long smack off the back wall behind the bullpens. Nothing can stop Upton right now, not cold weather and certainly not 87-mph fastballs from Jon Garland. The Braves won the first game 4-3 and completed the sweep with a 10-2 win.

Players admitted it wasn't easy staying warm while on the field. (You have to question why the games were even played, but baseball's schedule -- it's the only trip Atlanta makes to Colorado -- means making up postponed games are difficult to squeeze in.)

"It's more in your hands," Justin Upton said between games. "You use your hands a lot in the game and that's the worst part -- your hands get a little cold. But if you can keep your hands warm and keep them feeling the bat and the ball, you'll be fine."

The back-to-back home runs with his brother -- how cool does "Uptons homer" sound? -- was another highlight of Upton's monster April, as the siblings joined Lloyd and Paul Waner of the 1938 Pirates as the only brothers to hit consecutive home runs (the Uptons homered in the same inning earlier in the month, but it wasn't back-to-back).

Justin Upton is now hitting .307/.391/.813 with those 11 home runs and 16 RBIs (10 of the homers have been solo shots) and considering that Jason Heyward just landed on the disabled list following an appendectomy and was hitting .121, his brother is hitting .160, Andrelton Simmons is hitting .212 and Dan Uggla is hitting .167, you can certainly make a case for Upton as April's MVP in the National League.

The obvious question: Is Upton doing something different than last season, when he hit 17 home runs for the Diamondbacks? There's nothing in the results that shows a change in an approach. His swing rate is the same (44 percent) and he's actually swinging and missing a little more often this year (31 percent to 25 percent). His chase percentage -- swings on pitches outside the strike zone -- is 24 percent both seasons. His hit distribution is similar, as his line-drive rate about the same (20 percent in 2012, 22 percent in 2013).

There are, however, a couple differences: Upton is hitting more fly balls (11 percent higher rate than last year) and more of those fly balls are landing on the other side of the fence. This suggests he's probably been a little lucky (his home run/fly ball rate is 13 percent higher than anyone from last year) or that he was injured last year.

Oh, that's right, he was injured; he played through a thumb injury suffered on a slide in the third game of the season. He played through what the Diamondbacks called a bone bruise for six weeks before finally going on the disabled list, and it might have bothered him for a period of time even upon his return. But as this blog post from Capitol Avenue Club pointed out, by September, Upton looked more like the Upton of 2011, when he hit 31 home runs.

In that post, Andrew Sisson writes that Upton apparently stopped using a padded brace on his thumb Aug. 25 -- and hit eight of his 17 home runs over his final 36 games.

Why the Diamondbacks were so eager to trade Upton remains a little cloudy, but the insinuation that they believed he dogged it a little certainly persists. It seems like an unfair rap to me, even if intended by D-backs management; Upton was injured and when he got healthy he started hitting home runs again.

He's completely healthy in 2013 and now he's hitting a lot of home runs. He's back to the MVP-caliber talent he was in 2011 and the Braves -- and not the Diamondbacks -- are reaping the rewards. You don't win awards for being the MVP of April, but in Upton's case, I think he'll end up being in that discussion in September as well.

There is no scientific way to pick an all-underrated team. Well, I suppose there is some formula we could come up with, but that would be about as much fun as watching Brendan Ryan take batting practice. So let's go with an unscientific approach: my gut instinct. Plus how many times Eric Karabell and I talk about these guys being underrated at dinner. (He's sick of me bringing up Kyle Seager every Monday night. I remind him he's the only good position player right now on the Mariners.)

So here we go: The 2013 SweetSpot All-Underrated team, guys who don't seem to receive as much national acclaim as they deserve. Note: It's hard to be underrated if you play for an East Coast team, especially ones named "Yankees" or "Red Sox."

C -- Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers
Had a breakout season with the bat last year, hitting .320 with 12 home runs in between a stint on the DL for breaking his hand when a suitcase fell on it. Aside from his offense, statheads know Lucroy as one of the best pitch-framers in the business. Assuming he stays away from suitcases, the Brewers will reap benefits from his team-friendly contract: He'll make $15 million through 2017.

1B -- Allen Craig, Cardinals
Craig is still looking for his first home run of 2013, but a year ago he replaced Albert Pujols and hit .307/.354/.522 -- that's a higher on-base and slugging percentage than Pujols had with the Angels. Craig hit over .300 in the minors but his lack of a defensive home kept him off prospect lists and he didn't play 100 games in a major league season until last year, when he was already 27. He's a late bloomer but that doesn't mean he can't rake.

2B -- Neil Walker, Pirates
Unlike Craig, Walker seemed to spend forever on prospect lists, first as a catcher, then as a third baseman. He's settled in at second base, but playing for Pittsburgh his solid ability at the bat goes unnnoticed. He's not a star, but a solid contributor who should hit .280 with 12-15 home runs and adequate defense.

3B -- Kyle Seager, Mariners
Seager got off to a bad start and Karabell told me ESPN fantasy owners were dropping him like Raul Ibanez drops flies. Oh, the rash judgments of April. After a two-hit night Monday, Seager is up to .276/.337/.487. Unheralded coming up through the Seattle system, he has proved to be a better hitter than his North Carolina teammate, Dustin Ackley.

SS -- Brandon Crawford, Giants
OK, OK ... do I think his hot start with the bat is for real? No. Crawford has never really hit. But he's kind of a poor man's Andrelton Simmons, and while everyone raves about Simmons' ability in the field, nobody talks much about Crawford's. Just show them your ring, Brandon.

LF -- Josh Willingham, Twins
Willingham has put up good numbers at the plate for years -- including a monster 35-homer, 110-RBI season last season -- but he has played for the Marlins, Nationals, A's and Twins when they all had bad seasons and has never appeared in a postseason game. He may get that chance this year if the Twins trade him to a contender. (Not that the Twins can't contend! You never know!)

CF -- Shin-Soo Choo, Reds
He's finally getting some recognition thanks to his hot start (.366 average, better-than-Votto .521 OBP), but even then some people just want to talk about his shaky defense in center. He was a good player for the Indians for several years before coming to Cincy and I see his first All-Star Game in his future.

RF -- Norichika Aoki, Brewers
He came over from Japan last year and quietly hit .288/.355/433, lashed out 51 extra-base his, stole 30 bases and played a very good right field. He also made appearances as Bernie Brewer and at least four times raced as the Italian sausage.

SP -- Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
Quick: Which starting pitcher has led the AL in ERA since last July 1? I hope you guessed Iwakuma. In 20 games, he has a 2.44 ERA, edging out Justin Verlander's 2.51 mark, and held batters to a .225 average. He's off to a great start in 2013, with a 1.69 ERA through four starts and just 12 hits in 26.2 innings. His fastball isn't overpowering, but he gets away with throwing 90 mph fastballs up in the zone and mixing a good splitter.

SP -- Mike Minor, Braves
I'll break my East Coast rule to include Minor, who also has been dominant since last July 1, with a 2.00 ERA that is second in the majors only to teammate Kris Medlen. I believe he's for real.

What do you think? Whom would you put on your All-Underrated Team?

By the way, check out the video. Who do I think is overrated? You may be surprised.

Eric Karabell and I briefly raised this question a couple weeks ago on a SweetSpot TV: Which team is most collapse-proof? Or, to rephrase it, which is least likely to go all 2012 Red Sox on us? At the time, we mentioned the Reds, but I'm not so sure that's the right answer.

What makes a team collapse-proof? Here are some of my criteria:

• Rotation depth. Good pitching can mask a lot of deficiencies. Five good starters is important but few teams make it through a season with just five starters, so those sixth, seventh and even eighth starters can end up playing vital roles.
• Durability. What's the injury history of your position players and top starters?
• Star players. Obviously, stars are less likely to have off years. That's why they're stars.
• Age. Too many key players over 30? A red flag.
• Quality of bullpen. A deep bullpen can help you overcome a mediocre starter or two.
• Division. A weak division can help.

OK, here are the teams I think are most collapse-proof, which isn't quite the same thing as saying they're the best teams in baseball. Basically, these are teams with the highest floors.

1. Detroit Tigers
Strengths: Quality and depth of rotation (Drew Smyly would be a No. 3 on many teams); durability of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder (Cabrera has played at least 157 games each full season of his career, and the year he didn't he played 150; Fielder has missed 12 games in his career); age is only a minor concern (Torii Hunter is 37, Victor Martinez is 34); weakness of division.

Why they could collapse: Bullpen implodes, Justin Verlander gets hurt, Cabrera and Fielder go on midseason diets, lose 35 pounds and stop hitting.

2. Atlanta Braves
Strengths: Age of lineup (Dan Uggla is only regular position player over 28); star potential (Jason Heyward, Justin Upton); lineup depth (Evan Gattis, Chris Johnson already filling in and playing well); rotation depth (especially when Brandon Beachy returns); bullpen arms (already surviving loss of Jonny Venters); division could be weak with awful Marlins and mediocre Mets and Phillies; already off to a 13-3 start.

Why they could collapse: Heyward, B.J. Upton, Uggla and Andrelton Simmons continue to hit under .200 all season.

3. Cincinnati Reds
Strengths: Rotation quality/depth (rookie Tony Cingrani is already filling in for Johnny Cueto, Sam LeCure could be a good starter); good bench (Chris Heisey, Devin Mesoraco, Jack Hannahan, Billy Hamilton waiting in the minors); Joey Votto's .500 OBP; bullpen depth; weak division.

Why they could collapse: May not score enough runs if Votto doesn't start hitting for power and Jay Bruce doesn't find his power stroke; bullpen has struggled early on; Dusty Baker could screw it up.

And now three contenders with collapse potential (well, besides the Yankees, whose potential for collapse has been well documented):

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Why they could collapse: The team's rotation depth was supposed to be a strength, but they've already traded Aaron Harang, Zack Greinke is out and Ted Lilly's rehab assignment hasn't gone well. You realize how much this team is counting on Clayton Kershaw to be dominant and healthy. The left side of the infield has been terrible and Hanley Ramirez isn't necessarily the solution at shortstop. Matt Kemp may not be Matt Kemp circa 2011. Age (five regular position players 31 or older). NL West could be tougher if the Rockies are better than expected.

2. Los Angeles Angels
Why they could collapse: Just 15 games in to the season we're already seeing the potential flaws creep up. The rotation was already questionable and now ace Jered Weaver will miss some time. The starting nine is very good but has no depth. (Brendan Harris playing shortstop? Really?) Albert Pujols is hobbling around. Josh Hamilton is still swinging at everything. Mike Trout may merely be very good instead of all-world. Peter Bourjos doesn't hit. The bullpen isn't even mediocre but bad.

3. Washington Nationals
Why they could collapse: I still think they have the highest ceiling of any team in the majors, but you don't have to stretch things too far to create a collapse scenario. Dan Haren is washed up and another starter goes down, exposing the lack of rotation depth. Ryan Zimmerman continues to have throwing problems and doesn't hit. Second base remains a problem area all season with Danny Espinosa struggling. Two regulars, Adam LaRoche and Jayson Werth, are 33 and 34 and have injury histories. The bullpen has struggled early on. The more you look at the lineup you realize how heavily it's counting on 20-year-old Bryce Harper. So far, so good, but you don't want to need a 20-year-old kid to be your best player.

As you probably know, strikeouts continue to climb higher and higher.

In the chart at the right, are strikeouts per game:

As Dave Cameron wrote last week on FanGraphs,

Over the past 30 years, the strikeout rate in MLB has gone from 14.0 percent to the 20.0 percent it stands at today. It took 24 years to move from 14 percent to 17 percent, but it’s only taken six years to move from 17 percent to 20 percent. Those six years correspond perfectly to the PITCHF/x era.

Dave cites a piece from James Gentile that shows called strikes are rising much faster than swinging strikes, the suggestion that perhaps there is a relationship between the installation of the PITCHf/x cameras, their affect on umpires and thus the rapid growth in strikeouts in recent seasons.

Bill James also tossed out a theory that it's natural that strikeouts increase throughout history -- for pitchers, strikeouts are good, so it's a process of natural selection; but for hitters, strikeouts (to a point) aren't necessarily bad. You can strike out and still be a good hitter; but few pitchers succeed long term without striking out a certain percentage of hitters.

All this is very interesting and no doubt holds some truth. But maybe there is a simpler explanation: There are a lot of unbelievably talented young pitchers right now.

Look at the next generation of starters on the way, guys who have made fewer than 15 career starts: Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, Hyun-jin Ryu, Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, Wily Peralta, Dan Straily. That's on top of last year's rookie group that included Matt Moore, Jarrod Parker, Wade Miley, Yu Darvish and Wei-Yin Chen.

Look at some other pitchers who debuted since 2008: Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Johnny Cueto, Gio Gonzalez, Max Scherzer, Jeff Samardzija, Mat Latos, Doug Fister, Madison Bumgarner, Jordan Zimmermann, Kris Medlen, Brett Anderson, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Sale, Alexi Ogando, Jeremy Hellickson, Brandon Beachy and Lance Lynn. Not to mention a plethora of relievers -- led by Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman -- throwing 95-plus mph.

Think of all the advancements that have helped pitchers over the past 20 years -- meaning tools or approaches this generation of young starters has benefited from:

• Arms are better protected, not just in the minors and early in major league careers, but on the high school and college levels.
• Better coaching, teaching proper mechanics, from the youth levels on up, including private pitching coaches.
• Advancements in medicine and injury rehab -- the success rate for Tommy John surgery, for example, has improved.
• Video technology. Once used mostly by hitters, now another weapon for pitchers to take advantage of.

Beyond that, these pitchers are bigger, stronger and throw harder than ever before. Consider Harvey, the Mets phenom who has a 2.21 ERA through his first 13 major league starts, with 95 strikeouts in 81.1 innings. He's 6-foot-4, 225 pounds or so. Maybe 25 years ago he's playing basketball or packs on 50 pounds and becomes an offensive lineman in football. Now more guys like him are playing baseball.

Some of these up-and-coming stars take the hill tonight. The guy to watch is Fernandez, the 20-year-old rookie for the Marlins who was in high school two years ago. He's been terrific in his first two starts, throwing mid-90s fastballs and showing a good feel for pitching. (He opposes Reds rookie Tony Cingrani, just called up to replace the injured Cueto; in three Triple-A starts, he didn't allow a run and struck out 26 in 14.1 innings.) Teheran faces the Pirates. And then Friday we have must-watch TV: Harvey against Strasburg at Citi Field.

Eric Karabell and I discuss five of these guys in the video above. Here's how I would rank them:

1. Matt Harvey, Mets. After 10 successful starts last year, Harvey's first three outings have been pure domination. Right now, he doesn't look like a future ace, but is already an ace. His fastball averages 94 and hits 97. Now, he has faced the Padres (without their two best hitters), the Phillies and the Twins so far, so we should restrain our enthusiasm a little bit until he faces better lineups, but if his changeup continues to improve -- and batters are 0-for-14 against it so far -- watch out.

2. Jose Fernandez, Marlins. Despite the lack of experience, he pitches with the confidence of a veteran. He matches Harvey with his mid-90s velocity and relies on a curveball as his primary off-speed pitch. He's thrown his changeup only 16 times in two starts, but if he masters that pitch, well ... watch out.

3. Shelby Miller, Cardinals. He pitched Wednesday night, retiring 15 Pirates in a row at one point. He's another fastball/curveball guy, although his fastball is a tick below what we've seen from Harvey and Fernandez. After a rough first half at Triple-A in 2012, Miller seemed to put everything together down the stretch. His strong start -- .169 average allowed, 18 K's and 5 walks in three starts -- bodes well that his command continues to improve.

4. Hyun-jin Ryu, Dodgers. The rookie from Korea doesn't throw as hard as these guys, but has shown to be as advertised: A polished left-hander in the David Wells mode (which includes physique as well as stuff).

5. Julio Teheran, Braves. The one guy of these five who has struggled so far. He had a monster spring training (26 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 9 BB, 35 SO) but it hasn't translated to a successful start, as he still has issues commanding his off-speed stuff.

If you haven't seen any of these guys pitch, check them out. And you'll understand one reason why strikeouts are still on the rise.