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The Reds received a game-changing grand slam in the sixth inning to take a 5-2 lead against the Braves on Thursday night, leading to their sixth consecutive victory and their first sweep of the Braves since 1980. It wasn’t superstar Joey Votto who provided the knockout punch, nor was it mainstays Brandon Phillips or Jay Bruce. The home run came off the bat of one of the Reds’ many unheralded young players: 23-year-old rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco.

The blast also marked Cincinnati’s 10th home run of the series, leading to 14 of its 16 runs in the series. Winning with home runs is nothing new for this Reds squad, not at Great American Ball Park and certainly not in the Joey Votto era. But Votto didn’t hit a single homer in the series. Neither did Bruce. Phillips hit two. Instead of the three stalwarts on this Reds squad, it was the supporting cast leading the way: Mesoraco (1), Drew Stubbs (3), Zack Cozart (2), Todd Frazier (1) and Mike Leake (1).

Leake’s homer backed up a quality start on Monday, and the other home runs backed up quality starts from Mat Latos (Tuesday), Bronson Arroyo (Wednesday) and Homer Bailey (Thursday). The Reds saw scoreless outings from five different relievers and saves converted by three. To accomplish this in any series is excellent; to do so against the second-highest-scoring team in the league in one of the best hitters’ parks in all of baseball is another.

Depth and pitching have set this year’s Reds squad apart from last year’s version, a preseason favorite for the National League Central crown that was eventually lapped by both the Brewers and Cardinals. The 2011 season saw a 156 OPS+ from Votto and 119 OPS+ marks from both Phillips and Bruce. No other full-time starters came close; only part-time players Chris Heisey (113), Ramon Hernandez (113) and Miguel Cairo (101) even mustered an above average mark.

This season has seen the likes of Paul Janish, Edgar Renteria and Jonny Gomes excised in favor of Cozart (.727 OPS) and Frazier (.887). It has seen Stubbs come to life after three horrible series to open the year -- he owns a .266/.324/.430 line since April 17 to go with his typical fantastic defense. It’s seen Ryan Hanigan pick up his game as well, with a .794 OPS in 27 games as the starting catcher.

Johnny Cueto owns a phenomenal 2.22 ERA over 33 starts dating back to May 2011, but it was the other four Cincinnati starters who held down the Braves this week. Latos started out cold, but has a 2.35 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 23 innings in May. Arroyo has a 121 ERA+ after allowing a near-record 46 home runs last season, owning an absurd 44-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 58.2 innings. Bailey and Leake have had their rough spots, but they fit well in the back of the Reds’ rotation -- a tough job with half of their starts coming in the bandbox in Cincinnati.

The bullpen has established itself as one of the league’s best. Regardless of what one thinks Aroldis Chapman’s role should be, it is undeniable that he is the league’s best reliever. In the four-game sweep of the Braves, he pitched two more scoreless innings. Chapman fronts a bullpen full of talented pitchers: Jose Arredondo, Logan Ondrusek and Alfredo Simon all own ERA+ marks of 137 or higher. Sean Marshall shouldn’t be counted out either despite a rough start -- he was one of the best relievers in baseball over the past two seasons.

The Reds currently sit atop the NL Central, with a half-game lead over the Cardinals. As usual, Votto, Phillips, Cueto and Bruce lead the way. But if the Reds maintain their current success and carry it through to a playoff run, it will be because this year they didn’t have to do it all themselves.

• Paul Lukas has a piece up on Robert Griffin III becoming the first player to wear Roman numerals on his jersey. But in that piece he has some cool stuff on baseball players who wore nicknames on their jerseys. My favorite: One year, Johnnie LeMaster had been getting booed so much he wore "BOO" on the back of his jersey for a game.
• Johnette Howard has a nice piece on Rays outfielder Rich Thompson -- living the big league dream at age 33.
• Don't give up hope, Phillies fans! Bill Baer gives you some reasons for optimism.
• Catching up with Rusty Staub. The Mets have Staub bobblehead day this weekend.
• Here's an interview with new Red Sox director of player developoment Ben Crockett -- a former minor league pitcher who also happens to hold an economics degree from Harvard.
• Hey, I'm not the only one pumping up the Indians! ESPN Insider Ben Lindbergh writes why this season's Clevelanders will hold up better than the 2011 version. And FanGraphs' Dave Cameron says Cleveland is now the team to beat in the AL Central.
• Astros pitchers are getting the job done.
• Jim Tracy in a nutshell. Look, I expected the Rockies to be bad this year. But I don't think the Rockies expected to be bad. It may not be long before that leash snaps.
• ESPN Insider Kevin Goldstein explains how Scott Boras can exploit the draft this year.
• A Braves Q&A from Capitol Avenue Club.

We closed another week of excellent Baseball Today podcasts with Friday’s edition , as Mark Simon and I reflected on positives in the baseball world, and looked ahead to a fun interleague weekend!

1. Kerry Wood decides to call an end to his career, and we point to his career achievements rather than focus on the negative, including his amazing strikeout legacy.

2. Atlanta Braves ace Brandon Beachy keeps on winning, and keeps on doing it in a far different way than we’ve seen from him before.

3. Interleague play is here! Time for my annual rant on why it’s not only about the teams from Chicago, New York and Los Angeles meeting, but for that 10-year-old kid in Kansas City finally getting to see Justin Upton hit.

4. Our emailers want to discuss Emmanuel Burriss, the Pittsburgh Alleghenys and really, so much more, and we want what our emailers want!

5. Our weekend preview focuses on numerous series in which teams with similar records face off, from Pirates-Tigers to the battle of the Beltway and more. Plus, what to expect from Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton!

So download and listen to Friday’s fun Baseball Today, and have a great weekend! Power Rankings on Monday!

Baseball lore is full of great scouting stories, like the tale of the scout who was driving through rural Maryland one day and stopped to ask a kid working in a field for directions. The kid -- future Hall of Fame Jimmie Foxx -- raised his plow with one arm and pointed: "That way."

The scout, seeing the kid's raw strength, asked him the obvious question: "Do you play baseball?"

Who knows, maybe Brandon Beachy will become one of those stories.

Beachy played mostly third base and first base at Indiana Wesleyan and pitched a little, but went undrafted. A Braves area scout named Gene Kerns saw Beachy one July evening pitching in relief in the Virginia Valley League, a college summer league. He saw a kid with good size throwing in the low 90s.

After the game, he asked Beachy if he'd been drafted. (He wouldn't be allowed to talk to him if he had.) When Beachy said no, Kerns, as he relayed in a 2011 interview, then asked the obvious question: "Do you have an interest in professional baseball?"

Kerns convinced the club to sign him as a non-drafted free agent. Barely two years later, Beachy was in the major leagues. Now, after a sterling rookie season, Beachy is 5-1 after throwing his first major league complete game and shutout in a 7-0 victory over the Marlins. Beachy threw 122 pitches, struck out six, walked nobody, allowed four singles and one double and showcased why he leads the major leagues with a 1.33 ERA.

In less than four years he has gone from an undrafted college infielder to minor league reliever to maybe-he's-a-prospect to major league starter to ... well, what do we call him now? The most underrated pitcher in baseball? A possible All-Star? I'm not sure. For now, let's just call him very good.

Beachy isn't overpowering, usually settling in around 90-91 mph with his four-seamer, occasionally cranking it up to 94. He gets some running sink/cut on his fastball, although it's not a cutter. He tweeted earlier this season that "No, I don't throw a cutter. Just 4-seams and an occasional 2." He mixes in a changeup, a slow curve (72-74 mph) that he commands well and a slider. Yes, he relies to some extend on a deceptive delivery that makes it difficult for batters to pick up the ball, but he's excelling on more than deception; his stuff is better than advertised.

He was in control all game against the Marlins. They did get two runners on with two out in the fifth, but Jose Reyes lined out to right. In the seventh, Giancarlo Stanton doubled to lead off the inning and Chipper Jones made a nice diving stop on Gaby Sanchez for the first out. Beachy induced Emilio Bonifacio to ground out to second on a 94-mph four-seamer and then struck out Brett Hayes on a lovely changeup.

From there it was six up, six down and the shutout.

Last season, Baseball America ranked Beachy as Atlanta's No. 8 prospect, behind more heralded arms Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Arodys Vizcaino. But Beachy beat out Minor -- a former No. 1 pick -- for the No. 5 rotation slot out of spring training and never looked back. He made 25 starts and finished 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA, striking out 169 batters in 141.2 innings, the highest strikeout in the majors for pitchers with at least 100 innings.

His biggest issue as a rookie was an inability to pitch deep into games. The strikeouts were nice, but also meant he ran up his pitch counts, leading to early exits. He pitched seven innings just twice. Thursday was the fourth time in eight starts that he's gone at least seven. While his strikeout rate is down -- 6.5 Ks per nine -- he has been even more effective. His ground ball rate is up from 33.8 percent to 43.1 percent, he has allowed just one home run in 54 innings and his walks are down. There may be a little luck going on here --- the home run rate is absurdly low for a fly-ball pitcher and his .214 BABIP will surely rise -- but at this point you have to call him one of the best pitchers in the majors.

I asked Braves fans if they've been surprised by Beachy's sophomore campaign. A few responses:

• "That dominant game from Beachy tonight is just a continuation of the good work he's been doing this year. Kid's got the goods." -- @jackson_todd
• "Beachy has earned everything through hard work and dedication. I was surprised when he came up but not this year." -- @PaulGrey27
• "Not surprised that he's been the Braves best pitcher. Very surprised that he's been THIS good." -- @JUnderwood9
• "biggest surprise is continued ability to get swinging strikes on the fastball up, even when sitting 91-93. Huge asset." --@puckhoo
• "so no, not too surprised. if he can stay efficient and get his K rate back up a little bit he will become a legit ace" --@telfo1
• "Beachy reminds me so much of John Smoltz. His mechanics are simple which enables him to repeat pitches without stress." --@M823SL

Somewhere Gene Kerns was probably watching a baseball game tonight. I hope he got a chance to check out a few innings of Brandon Beachy. And if he wants to somehow involve a plow in future retellings of how he discovered Beachy, I think that sounds perfectly fine.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Tuesday night was an angry one for quite a few players, managers and umpires, but Mark Simon and I were in good moods to chronicle it all for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast!

1. Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg had a miserable outing Tuesday, and then when his manager told the world what might have contributed, it got worse.

2. Toronto Blue Jays slugger Brett Lawrie lost his cool in the ninth inning Tuesday, and look for the Blue Jays to be without his services for a while. Mark says Lawrie needs help.

3. The Angels found a fall guy for the struggles of Albert Pujols, but is manager Mike Scioscia safe?

4. The Mets are in the news for David Wright being pulled from a game, and also a topic for an emailer, as well as Atlanta’s offense and success for certain days of the week.

5. Wednesday’s schedule features the ESPN matchup of Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson, a pair of right-handers that the metrics do not favor.

So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, because we’re never removed early for the fear of retaliation.

Eric and I recorded this on Monday. It goes with this post on the NL's best team. You can go vote in the poll on that page, but here are the results through nearly 8,000 votes:

Braves: 40 percent
Dodgers: 25 percent
Cardinals: 14 percent
Nationals: 11 percent
Other: 10 percent

Heading into the weekend, the St. Louis Cardinals appeared to be the class of the National League, but the Atlanta Braves marched into town and swept the Cardinals while scoring 23 runs in three games. With the Philadelphia Phillies struggling and the Miami Marlins recovering from an 8-14 start, which team is the best in the NL right now?

The Los Angeles Dodgers own the best record in the majors -- a half-game better than the Texas Rangers -- but it doesn't seem as if a lot of people believe in them just yet.

Do you?

Los Angeles Dodgers (23-11, plus-34 run differential)
The case for: They have the best player in the NL in Matt Kemp, but even last week, when Kemp battled a sore hamstring and had just four hits, the Dodgers had an .869 team OPS and went 5-1. Catcher A.J. Ellis is third in the majors with a .462 OBP, Mark Ellis has a .385 OBP, and Andre Ethier has a .364 OBP. That's four guys who have been getting on base, which means the Dodgers are a relative offensive juggernaut. They have the best pitching in the NL, Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly are a combined 10-0 and fit perfectly as fly ball pitchers at Dodger Stadium, where the club is 15-3. Overall, the rotation ERA of 2.91 is second in the league.

The case against: C'mon, Ellis and Elllis sounds more like a law firm than the meat of a championship lineup. They're getting little offense from shortstop Dee Gordon and third baseman Juan Uribe, and their left fielders have combined for one home run. Capuano and Lilly aren't this good, and the team has played a pretty soft schedule thus far with only two series (Braves and Nationals) against teams above .500. And this Kemp hamstring injury could be more serious than just him missing a day or two.

Atlanta Braves (22-13, plus-34 run differential)
The case for: The best team in the NL has to be in the NL East, and the Braves showed they're that team with their weekend sweep in St. Louis. They lead the NL in runs scored, and Brian McCann hasn't really started to hit. Thanks to the dominant duo of Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, the Braves haven't lost a game they've led after six innings. Atlanta has also played just 13 of its first 35 games at home. The fact that the rotation ranks 15th in ERA is actually a good sign: They're nine games over .500 despite that.

The case against: Actually, the struggles of the rotation aren't a good sign. Brandon Beachy has been the team's only reliable starter, and even his numbers are a little flukey, with a .220 batting average on balls in play and just one home run allowed in 45 innings. The bullpen is 9-1 and has held leads, but the signs say that luck won't continue. Kimbrel, Venters and Eric O'Flaherty are allowing runners at a much higher rate than 2011. Chipper Jones has 22 RBIs in 25 games; that RBI rate can't continue.

@dschoenfield Braves.Timely hitting throughout lineup, Very good starting pitching, Top RPs 7-9 inns, good health and mostly youthful team

— Lyle Wood (@wood_back) May 14, 2012

Washington Nationals (21-13, plus-15 run differential)
The case for: That rotation has a chance to be one of the best we've seen in a long time. So far it has compiled a 2.31 ERA and allowed opponents to hit just .202. Ross Detwiler has a 1.02 WHIP, and that's the worst of the five starters. The team is eight games over .500 even though Mike Morse hasn't played a game, Ryan Zimmerman missed 13 games, and Jayson Werth is on the DL. If they can hold things together until Morse and Werth return, the lineup could be solid.

The case against: Baseball isn't 90 percent pitching ... or even 75. The Nats are averaging 3.56 runs per game, 14th in the NL, and that's likely to get worse without Werth and Wilson Ramos. Bryce Harper is exciting, but he has just a .663 OPS. The injuries are just going to be too much to overcome, and once the starting rotation falls back a little bit, so will the team's win-loss record.

@dschoenfield Washington #Nationals (21-13) -- best starting rotation and playing well in spite of hobbled hitters.

— Chris Rinaldi (@Chris_Rinaldi) May 14, 2012

St. Louis Cardinals (20-14, plus-65 run differential)
The case for: That run differential shows that St. Louis has been the league's most dominant team. Its offense is so deep that Mike Matheny will have trouble finding regular playing time for Allen Craig, who has five home runs and 16 RBIs in 10 games since returning from the DL. Carlos Beltran has more home runs than Kemp, Rafael Furcal has a .447 OBP, and Jon Jay is hitting .347. The Cardinals lead the NL in batting average, home runs, OBP and slugging. Then there's the pitching staff. Lance Lynn, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse each have ERAs of 2.08 or better. Lynn, in particular, looks legit with a power fastball and curveball, and Westbrook and Lohse are strike-throwing machines. Just wait until Adam Wainwright gets going and Chris Carpenter possibly returns.

The case against: Despite that run differential, the Cards have just the fourth-best record. In a sense, you get the idea they blew some of this early offense and didn't build up a 24-10 record or such. They've also played a soft schedule, playing almost exclusively within the weak NL Central. Other than two series against the 17-16 Reds, the only .500 team they played was the Braves, and they were swept. Do you really believe in Lohse and Westbrook. And we don't have to mention that Furcal and Jay aren't going to hit .383 and .347 all season.

@dschoenfield The St. Louis Cardinals because the pitching staff is overachieving, & Furcal and Beltran are providing veteran leadership.

— Zach Loesl (@mmm9731) May 14, 2012

SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield and I gathered for Monday’s Baseball Today podcast with our big top-10 lists of best teams and much more!

1. Seattle Mariners announcer Dave Sims talked about the Mariners, whether Ichiro will be in a Mariners uniform next season, Jesus Montero, cheering for the home team, the many young players on the horizon and ... hats.

2. Power Rankings day! Dave, Mark Simon and I each submitted our lists, with some similarities but alas, not all division leaders made it. And which NL team is best?

3. How do you pitch to Texas Rangers superstar Josh Hamilton? And how good are the Rangers? We discuss.

4. What has Detroit Tigers lefty Drew Smyly done that hadn’t been done ... ever?

5. We take a closer look at Monday’s schedule, from ESPN’s Cubs-Cardinals tilt to an important series for last season’s NL West champs!

So download and listen to Monday’s Baseball Today podcast and come right back with us Tuesday for me and Keith Law!

The Atlanta Braves pulled off an impressive sweep in St. Louis over the weekend to take over the first place in the National League East. Most impressively, they did it by scoring 23 runs in the three games. While it's not a surprise the Braves are contenders early on, what is surprising is they've done it more with their bats than their arms. Here is our list of top 10 early season surprises.

1. The Atlanta Braves' offense.

As Diane Firstman wrote the other day on the SweetSpot blog, the Braves have a chance at a historic turnaround on offense. A year ago, they averaged 3.96 runs per game, 8 percent below the major league average of 4.28 runs per game. This year, they're averaging 5.40 runs while the major league average has fallen to 4.18. That's 29 percent better, a 37 percent increase over 2011. Only a handful of teams have shown a 30 percent improvement like that year-to-year.

Some of the improvement was expected --- Jason Heyward and Martin Prado hitting better, for example. Michael Bourn has been superlative in the leadoff spot, hitting .336 with a .399 on-base percentage, but the biggest surprise has perhaps been the old man, Chipper Jones, who is hitting .299 and slugging .506. He has 22 RBIs in 24 games. With rookie shortstop Tyler Pastornicky holding his own, the Braves go eight deep and the scary thing is catcher Brian McCann hasn't really started to hit and you get the feeling Heyward is ready to explode.

2. The Baltimore Orioles are in first place.

The Orioles bounced back from losing three of four to the Texas Rangers by winning their weekend series against the Rays to maintain a one-game lead over Tampa. The Orioles live and die by the home run on offense -- they lead the majors with 54; their .310 OBP, however, ranks just 17th in the majors. Jake Arrieta got pounded again on Sunday and has allowed 13 runs his past two starts after that eight-inning shutout performance against the Yankees. That means three-fifths of Baltimore rotation has an ERA over 5.00. So, yes, there are obvious question marks here. But for now the Orioles have Matt Wieters and Adam Jones mashing, a lights-out bullpen and Jason Hammel pitching like an ace.

3. The Oakland Athletics and Houston Astros aren't terrible.

I heard a lot of mocking of the A's and Astros heading into the season -- predictions of 105 losses, 110, maybe even 115. Both teams have played solid baseball. The A's are 18-17 and as always Billy Beane has constructed a pitching staff that will keep the A's respectable. Brandon McCarthy, Bartolo Colon and Tommy Milone throw strikes, while rookie Jarrod Parker has looked good in his first four starts. Set-up man Ryan Cook, acquired with Parker in the Trevor Cahill trade, hasn't allowed a run in 16.2 innings (and hardly a hit -- opponents are batting .060 against him.)

The Astros, meanwhile, are 15-19 but have actually outscored their opponents. Jose Altuve is as fun as any player in the game, Jed Lowrie has played well and veteran Wandy Rodriguez could be an attractive trade chip if he keeps pitching like this. The Astros aren't going to be playoff contenders, but at least they've giving their fans a reason to show up this summer.

4. Bryan LaHair and Jeff Samardzija.

The Chicago Cubs are bad team but have two of the season's best individual stories. Minor league vet LaHair is putting up All-Star numbers, hitting .340/.437/.670. Samardzija has been a revelation in the rotation, considering he had trouble throwing strikes as a reliever in 2011. His average fastball velocity of 94.7 mph trails only Stephen Strasburg among starters and his changeup has become one of the best strikeout pitches in the game. With a 4-1 record and 2.89 ERA, the former Notre Dame wide receiver has turned into must-see viewing for Cubs fans.

5. Derek Jeter.

Admit it, you saw more decline, you thought maybe he was just about done. Maybe you wanted him to be done. Jeter is hitting .372, has 14 extra-base hits, hasn't missed a game, and is playing like 27-year-old Jeter, not 37-year-old Jeter.

6. A.J. Ellis.

OK, Matt Kemp has been superhuman and Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly are both 5-0 but my favorite story on the team that owns baseball's best record is their obscure 31-year-old catcher who ranks third in the majors in OBP -- his .462 OBP higher than Josh Hamilton's .455. Ellis' 21 walks has been boosted by five freebies but the on-base skills are legit. Hey, Don, how about moving Ellis in front of Kemp in the lineup?

7. Bryce Harper.

The Nationals suffered a devastating injury with the loss of catcher Wilson Ramos this weekend, the latest in a string of injuries that includes Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Drew Storen. Despite that, the Nationals are just a half-game behind the Braves in the NL East thanks to their dominant rotation. We certainly didn't expect Harper to be up so soon, but the 19-year-old has held his own. Trouble is, however, the injuries mean Harper may have to do more than hold his own. I wouldn't bet against him.

8. Parity rules the day.

The Red Sox, Angels and Phillies are in last place.

9. David Wright hitting .400.

When Wright fractured his pinkie four games into the season, Mets fans feared the worst for their franchise third baseman who has battled a string of injuries in recent season. Instead, Wright missed a few games and hasn't stopped hitting since. He's hitting .444 over his past 14 games and the Mets are 19-15 and should not be underestimated.

10. Pitchers are still throwing strikes to Hamilton.

Only Clint Barmes has swung at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone. Hamilton swings at the first pitch over 50 percent of the time. And yet ... OK, easier said than done. As Chipper said after Hamilton swatted four home runs against the Orioles, "He's a bad man."

PHOTO OF THE DAY

The average number of runs per game per team has fluctuated throughout baseball’s history. There have been declines attributed to better gloves and the introduction of hard-throwing set-up men and closers. There have been increases linked to such things as the lowering of the pitcher’s mound, the introduction of the designated hitter and artificial turf.

Since 1901, the average yearly rate of change has been about five percent either way. Here are the fluctuations over the past 15 seasons (2012 totals through May 7):

 

On a team basis, run production can fluctuate from year-to-year based on things as tangible as changes in ballpark dimensions, and as variable as batting average on balls in play. The following table shows the change in run production from 2011 to 2012 for each team, measuring against the average across the majors, with the year-to-year change in performance relative to league average. For example, the Cardinals averaged 4.70 runs per game in 2011, 10 percent better than the league average of 4.28. So far in 2012, they’ve averaged 5.55 runs per game, a gaudy 32 percent better than the league mark of 4.20. So, from year-to-year, they’ve improved 22 percent relative to the league average.

 

As you can see, the early 2012 season has provided two extreme outliers in this season-to-season variability: the Atlanta Braves and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

For the Braves, the improvement can be tied to the turnaround of their entire outfield. Last year’s leaders in outfield production had 14 homers (Jason Heyward), 57 RBIs (Martin Prado), and a .278 average (Michael Bourn, in 53 games upon his arrival from Houston). This year, all three starting outfielders have OPS+ safely over 100 (Prado 105, Bourn 125, Heyward 133). The entire team’s OPS with runners in scoring position has risen from .714 to .752, while their BABIP has increased from .284 to .311. (One might expect some regression in that area as the season moves forward.) The Braves are averaging nearly 1.5 runs per game more than last year, and are up 37 percent year-to-year against the league norm. (Note: The Braves have declined from 5.43 runs per game to 5.19 in the few days since the original research was completed.)

The 2011 version of the Pirates was no juggernaut on offense, averaging a scant 3.77 runs per game (12 percent below league average). However, no one could have foreseen the utter collapse of any semblance of an attack, as Pittsburgh has mustered only 2.79 runs per contest so far. That rate is 34 percent below league average, making for a 22 percent decline year-to-year against the league norms. Compared to 2011, the Buccos are getting much less production from catcher Rod Barajas, second baseman Neil Walker and new shortstop Clint Barmes. They stole bases at a fair clip last year (108 out of 160 for 68 percent). This year they are 14 for 25 (56 percent). They’ve also forgotten about walks, averaging nearly one less per game. One area where they might improve over the remainder of the season is BABIP: this year’s .278 mark pales next to last season’s .301.

So where do the Braves and Pirates rank all-time in terms of changes in year-to-year offense? Here first is the list of those teams that experienced at least a 30 percent improvement versus the league average:



The Braves are sitting amongst some rare company. There hasn’t been an improvement like this since 1978, when the Brewers added just over one run per game to their offense, while the overall league average dropped by roughly 0.4 runs. The 1903 New York Giants benefited from a career year from outfielder Roger Bresnahan (.936 OPS) and the first full season of manager John McGraw, helping lead the squad to a .111 increase in OPS (.570 to .681).

Now here’s the list of those teams that experienced at least a 30 percent decline versus the league average:



The 1903 season saw the American League adopt the "foul strike" rule, which may account for scoring across the league dropping by 0.8 runs per team per game. The 1914-15 A's fell off when Connie Mack broke up a World Series team, selling off several of his stars. The 1943 Red Sox lost stars Johnny Pesky and Ted Williams to World War II.

At "only" 22 percent, the Pirates have to improve their underperforming to crack this list. Assuming the majors’ average runs per game stays at 4.20 for the rest of the year, they’d have to lower their runs per game to 2.43 to achieve a 30 percent drop relative to the league. It seems unlikely they’d score only 395 runs in the entire year (162 * 2.43). But, that’s why they play the games.

Diane Firstman runs the Value Over Replacement Grit blog. Follow her on Twitter.

Welcome back, Giancarlo Stanton. You too, Jason Heyward.

I remember all those years ago when you were the new kids who caught our attention, the phenoms who seduced us with enticing numbers when you were just 20 years old. Einstein once said, "I never think of the future -- it comes soon enough." I suppose he's right. I mean, who can disagree with Einstein, right? But you guys were so talented that we dared to dream of greatness and trophies and monster numbers and national acclaim that might even get you a commercial televised on non-baseball sporting events.

Then ... well, Heyward, you kind of disappeared last season. And Stanton ... well, you changed your name and hurt your knee and maybe you got freaked out by that new park and you didn't hit a home run the first 19 games this season.

But you guys are back. I feel it. These new outfield phenoms -- Bryce Harper, Mike Trout -- sure, they look pretty good and they're getting a lot of pub, but I'm here to remind baseball fans that you two guys are just 22 years old.

* * * * The Miami Marlins have won seven in a row -- all on this current nine-game road road trip -- as they've climbed from an 8-14 start that bordered on disastrous to 15-14. Stanton has led the way on offense, hitting another home run in Monday's 4-0 victory over the Astros, his fifth on this road trip and sixth in nine games. No player in the game can match his raw power and his slow start nearly made us forget how good he was a year ago when his 34 home runs were the fourth-most ever by a 21-year-old, just one of 10 to hit at least 30.

The Marlins' pitching has been red hot on this trip, allowing just 17 runs in those seven wins for a 2.15 ERA. Granted, pitching staffs often get healthy on trips to San Francisco and San Diego, but they've needed to be stellar considering the offense is still struggling to score runs. While Stanton has heated up, many of his teammates are still struggling. Jose Reyes has a .317 OBP and .333 slugging percentage, a .650 OPS that is 227 points below his 2011 mark and well below his .782 mark entering the season. He's on pace for just 67 runs. Emilio Bonifacio doesn't have an extra-base hit yet. Hanley Ramirez hit his sixth home run Monday but is batting .228/.313/.439. Gaby Sanchez is hitting .202 with one home run.

For all the hype about signing Reyes and moving Ramirez to third base, it is Stanton that makes this offense. He's the guy Ozzie Guillen will soon move back into the cleanup spot, the guy to drive in Reyes and Ramirez, the one to strike fear in pitchers. If his knee holds up and he doesn't let the new stadium psyche him out, he's still a 40-homer guy in the making.

While ace Josh Johnson has been terrible, Carlos Zambrano has provided a huge lift at the back of the rotation. He has pitched at least six innings in each of his six starts and Monday's three-hit shutout -- his first since Sept. 25, 2009 and just the fifth of his career -- lowered his ERA to 1.98.

This is what makes the Marlins worth paying attention to once again: They're suddenly over .500 even though Johnson is winless, closer Heath Bell has been demoted after blowing four saves and the lineup has yet to live up to its potential.

Hey, there's a reason the NL East is looking like the division of death in the NL.

Heyward is a key reason the Atlanta Braves have been the one team in the division to score runs. While the Chicago Cubs' Jeff Samardzija shut down the Braves on Monday with seven strong innings, the Braves lead the NL in runs scored. Their 163 runs are 51 more than the Phillies, the No. 2 run-scoring team in the division.

After posting a .393 on-base percentage as a 20-year-old -- the only guys ahead of him: McGraw, Ott, Williams, Kaline, Rodriguez and Mantle -- expectations were enormous for Heyward in 2011, but injuries affected his swing and he slumped to .227 with a .319 OBP. Heyward belted his fourth home run on Monday and is currently hitting .269/.376/.473, similar to the production he generated as a rookie.

Heyward gives the Braves three left-handed power bats in the lineup, joining Brian McCann and Freddie Freeman (plus switch-hitter Chipper Jones). In a division full of dominant right-handed starters, that southpaw pop gives the Braves a big edge over their division rivals.

Anyway, it's just a little reminder: Have fun watching Harper and Trout show flashes of brilliance this season; but don't forget about those grizzled veterans in the division of death.

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First base: Here come the Marlins. The Marlins won their sixth straight game to improve to .500. All six wins came on the road, in San Francisco and San Diego, with four of the wins coming by one run and two in extra innings. The key battle in Sunday's 6-3 win over the Padres came in eighth inning with the game tied, the bases loaded, two outs and Giancarlo Stanton facing reliever Andrew Cashner. Stanton saw eight high-octane fastballs from Cashner -- seven at 101 mph, one at 102 mph. Stanton missed the first pitch, later fouled off two pitches and then drew a walk on a 3-2 pitch to give the Marlins the lead. With Cashner perhaps rattled by the bases-loaded walks, the Marlins proceeded to add three more runs on a John Buck passed ball, a Gaby Sanchez single and another passed ball.

"I saw 102 (mph) but you can throw 120 and without command you are going to get hurt," Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen said. "It's all about command and making good pitches. It was a hell of an at-bat." Stanton is also getting locked in. After going homerless for 19 games, he's hit five in his past eight games. Ricky Nolasco also pitched well again, improving to 4-0 with a 2.72 ERA. He's allowed 12 runs in his start, relying on control (nine walks) and keeping the ball in the park (one home run). The Marlins finish their road trip with three games in Houston. Could this be a 9-0 trip?

Second base: Let's settle this on the playground. You have to love Jamie Moyer and Chipper Jones getting into a little squabble over stealing signs. Kids will be kids, I guess. Moyer accused Jones of relaying signs while on second base. But what's odd is Chipper's response: "Any time a grown man gets his integrity questioned, they're going to take it seriously and I'm no different. If he wants to discuss it, we'll discuss it, but he's wrong, plain and simple," he said. But haven't we been led to believe that stealing signs is, you know, part of the game? A sort of legal way to cheat, as opposed to, oh, let's say performance enhancing drugs. Yet Chipper acts like his his very manhood was thrown in the gutter. Could it be that stealing signs is considered an immoral way to victory?

Third base: Mixed messages. Two pitchers in need of positive returns also delivered on Sunday, as Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez threw seven shutout innings against the Rangers while Mat Latos struck out 11 in six scoreless frames. However, let's not get too excited just yet. While Jimenez allowed just two hits, he also walked five against six strikeouts, a sign that his control issues remain an issue (25 walks, just 20 strikeouts on the season). Latos' game came against the Pirates; still, that's two scoreless outings in his past three starts. While I'd still be concerned about Jimenez, maybe Latos is finally showing the talent that made him so effective with the Padres.

Home plate. Tweet of the day. Bryce Harper stole home. On a pickoff throw to first base by Cole Hamels. After reaching when Hamels hit him with a pitch. Which Hamels admitted after the game he did on purpose. As Joe Sheehan tweeted ...

Bryce Harper is going to end up as one of those barometers, where you divide humanity into the people who like him and the ones who don't.

— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) May 7, 2012

What a day in baseball on Wednesday! Eric Karabell and myself could have done a two-hour Baseball Today podcast. Here are some highlights of a jam-packed show. Eric even tricked me into comparing Jose Altuve to Al Kaline and Alex Rodriguez. OK, maybe I did that to myself.

1. We discuss Jered Weaver's no-hitter, of course, and wonder how many more no-hitters we'll see this season.

2. We discuss that wild, improbable game in Atlanta between the Phillies and Braves. Are there reasons to be concerned about Roy Halladay?

3. That's only the tip of the iceberg of a crazy night -- bad calls, Jason Giambi's walk-off homer, Jake Arrieta dominating the Yankees and more.

4. We answer some emails about Mat Gamel's injury and other stuff.

5. Finally, we look ahead to Thursday's action and I declare that Jose Altuve is a batting title contender.

Check it all out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, and don't miss Friday's show with Mark Simon and awesome guests Jayson Stark and Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey.

Baseball is awesome. Did we need to say anything else? Do we need to hire Terry Cashman to write a ballad about this day? Do we need to pen epic poems about Chipper Jones and Jered Weaver and Bryce Harper and the intentional walk?

Man, I need to catch my breath.

How do you sum up the wildest game of the season so far? I guess pretty simply: The Phillies, a team that scores runs with about the same frequency of a Serie A soccer team, totaled 13 runs ... in a game Roy Halladay started ... and lost.

The Phillies led 6-0, the Braves scored six off Halladay in the fifth (including a Brian McCann grand slam) and then took an 8-6 lead (the first time he's allowed eight runs in a game since Aug. 24, 2009). The Phillies surged back ahead 12-8, the Braves took a 13-12 lead with five runs in the bottom of the eighth (as Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon apparently isn't allowed to pitch more than one inning or three days in a row), the Phillies tied in the ninth on Shane Victorino's two-out infield single, and then ...

Well, then, Larry Wayne Jones stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 11th inning. He hammered a 2-2 slider from Brian Sanches down the right-field line, but it hooked a few feet line. I tweeted, "Dang, a Chipper walk-off would have been pretty cool on this wild day."

Two pitches later, he crushed a 3-2, 88-mph meatball over the center-field fence, watching the ball fly away into the Atlanta evening and flipping his bat in a dismissive swagger. "I may be 40 years old with creaky knees, but don't try and slip that mediocre slop by me," he seemed to say.

Braves 15, Phillies 13.

It was the 458th regular-season home run in his career. Few have felt sweeter, especially since the Braves had lost eight straight games to the Phillies.

"I wish everyone could experience that feeling right there," Jones said on postgame on-field TV interview, trying to catch his breath after enduring the mosh pit at home plate. "That game, without a doubt, takes the cake as far as my career goes. You figure with Halladay and [Tommy] Hanson, it's going to be a 2-1 game."

When Jones says he's never seen a game like it, you know what it was something amazing.

And here are a few more adventures from not just another Wednesday in early May:

• Oh, yeah, as I was finishing this piece, Jered Weaver was flirting with a no-hitter through the sixth … seventh … into the eighth … and he did it. You know, Weaver is pretty good at baseball. The highlight: MLB Network cameras showed Weaver leaving the dugout in the eighth inning to use the bathroom. How do you risk a no-hitter by leaving the bench? As he said after the game, "I had to pee so bad."
• In an afternoon tilt at Coors Field, we saw the worst call of the season (Jerry Hairston Jr. was called out on this play) and Carlos Gonzalez homered twice off Clayton Kershaw (only the second time Kershaw has allowed two home runs to one player in a game, Adam Dunn having done so in 2010). But that stuff was merely a prelude to a wacky ninth inning. With two outs and a runner on first, Jim Tracy elected to intentionally walk Matt Kemp to pitch to Dee Gordon. You can debate the merits of the decision -- Kemp's home run rate was three times that of Gordon's extra-base hit rate, and extreme fly ball pitcher Rafael Betancourt was on the mound -- but Gordon hit a soft liner into right-center. Third-base coach Tim Wallach sent Kemp, who should have been thrown out by 10 feet, but Troy Tulowitzki biffed the relay with a wormburner throw home. Game tied and Tracy looked like the goat until the ancient Jason Giambi hit a three-run homer off Scott Elbert in the bottom of the ninth. How awesome is that the Giambino is still swatting game-winning home runs at age 41?
• The Nationals ended a five-game losing streak in dramatic, walk-off fashion as well. Wunderkind Harper -- who had just missed his first major league homer earlier in the game with a double off the top of the wall in right-center -- led off the bottom of the ninth with another double to center, his third hit of the game. With Nationals fans dreaming delirious dreams of Harper's future, J.J. Putz then struck out Wilson Ramos and Rick Ankiel. But Ian Desmond blasted a 1-1, 93-mph fastball over the fence in left-center. Only one of the best wins in Nationals' history.
• The Royals looked like they were going to beat Justin Verlander, leading 2-0 in the eighth, only to have Brennan Boesch tie the game with a two-run homer. So they settled for a victory off Joaquin Benoit in the ninth, the go-ahead run scoring on Chris Getz's two-out infield single.
• Jake Arrieta threw eight shutout innings against the Yankees in one of the best outings of the year for a pitcher: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB 9 SO. The Orioles took two of three in the series, they're 16-9, and Baltimore fans are starting to believe.
• Jeff Suppan made his first major league start since 2010 and tossed five shutout innings as the Padres blanked the Brewers 5-0.
• Johnny Damon played his first game for the Indians, and while he went 0-for-3 with a walk, having Damon back in the bigs is certainly worthy of a round of applause.
• Carlos Beltran had seven RBIs through three innings and for a time we could conjure up scenarios where he would drive in 10 ... 11 ... maybe even a record-tying 12 runs.
• Lost in the excitement of Chipper's dramatic walk-off homer, Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz also had seven RBIs.

One day in baseball. I say we do it again.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

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While the Nationals lost in Bryce Harper's home debut, they clung to first place thanks to the Phillies-Braves battle. If you left the Phillies for dead because the right side of their infield is on the DL and Cliff Lee, also injured, hasn’t even begun throwing, then you made a first-month mistake. On Tuesday night as they beat the Braves 4-2, Philadelphia reminded you why you shouldn’t be surprised when the Phillies come back from an early grave and eat your brai … . Well, you shouldn't be surprised when they stay alive in the so-called "Division of Death."

First, the Phillies have their set stars who aren’t missing in action. Cole Hamels ran off his fourth straight quality start of the season. He put the team in a position to win yet again, even though he was facing a Braves team averaging more than five runs per game. Even without Lee, the rest of the Phillies’ star-staffed rotation has notched 17 quality starts in 21 turns -- delivering enough ballgames that even a team with a weak offense can win.

That same rotation has had to take four “tough losses” (that’s an "L" in a quality start, per Baseball-Reference.com) because of the anemic offense. That can’t be chalked up to injuries alone: Rookie Freddy Galvis might not be ready for big league pitching while filling in for Chase Utley. But that’s just one lineup slot hampered by injury. Among the guys the Phillies are counting on, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco both have OPS marks below .600. Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino were both getting on base at less than a .300 clip before Tuesday night’s action.

That’s not just injury related, that’s a collection of slow starts. And it won’t last because all four vets are better than that, and they’re the players on the spot who will turn the Phillies offense around now, not later, once Howard and Utley return.

Sometimes an offense needs a nudge, though, and the Braves’ defense certainly obliged. History sees hits and runs, but it also recorded an error on Martin Prado's fourth-inning flub in left field when he flat out missed Ty Wigginton's two-out single through the left side, allowing Pence to follow Polanco home for a 2-0 lead.

In the eighth, with the game tied and Phillies on second and third, Jonny Venters got what he needed, striking out Polanco with a slider … that got away from Brian McCann, plating the lead run because John Mayberry Jr. was alertly coming home already. The Phillies’ fourth run was a well-placed hit: With the infield pulled around to the left side on the shift with the pull-hitting Pence at the plate, Pence responded by poking a single through that gaping hole on the right side.

Call those events situational snafus or perfect execution, either way the Phillies will take it. Those things won’t always go the Phillies’ way on any given night, of course; Prado has a strong arm in left, and if he comes up with that ball off Wigginton’s bat, Pence may not have made it home, or may have just held up. McCann isn’t among the very best receivers in the game, but he isn’t a brick wall either. After achieving rare notoriety as a set-up man Venters is going to get his man at home plate more often than not.

But as the Phillies try to crawl back up from their slow start at the plate, they won’t get all the way there on big innings and blowouts -- things this lineup may not have. They’ll need to get by with nights like Tuesday, where they can exploit the athleticism of Pence or Mayberry or Victorino. Even absent Lee, thanks to Hamels & Co., games will be in reach. They may eventually get real thunder from Utley and Howard, but in the meantime they’ll have to get by with what opportunity affords them.

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Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.