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The Atlanta Braves finished with the third-highest strikeout rate among all 30 major league teams at 22.6 percent. The two teams to either side of them -- Astros and Twins ahead, Mets and Mariners behind -- all had terrible seasons. The Braves are also the only club with three players over the 150-strikeout threshold (Dan Uggla, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton) and they were the only club to do it last year as well. Much will be made of the Braves' strikeout tendency as we head into the postseason, and they certainly do strike out a lot, but does it matter?

I looked at hitter strikeout rate data among all postseason teams over the last 10 years. Last year, all four teams to advance to the League Championship Series had a strikeout rate that ranked in the bottom third of the league. The Giants, who won it all, had the fourth-lowest strikeout rate. In 2011, the two teams with the lowest strikeout rates -- the Cardinals and Rangers -- met up in the World Series. But is that a trend?

 

Event       Average Rank

Lost ALDS	19

Lost NLDS	14

Lost ALCS       21

Lost NLCS	17

Lost WS         17

Won WS          20

Division Series teams averaged a strikeout rate ranking in the middle of the pack, 14 for the NL and 19 for the AL. Championship Series teams averaged a slightly better strikeout rate rank, between 17 and 21. The World Series loser also averaged a rank of 17. The World Series winner averaged the lowest rank on the list at 20.

Of the 10 World Series winners since 2003, eight of them have had a strikeout rank in the lower half of the league. Six of them were in the lower one-third. The only team to win the World Series with an offense that struck out at a top-10 rate was the 2004 Red Sox (18.3 percent, sixth).

There are other factors involved in winning and losing, of course, but why have teams that strike out less managed to succeed a little more, particularly recently? Offense declined after the 2009 season, with the runs per game average dropping from 4.61 to 4.38. Hits have declined from 8.96 per game in 2009 to 8.67 hits per game in 2013. The biggest changes have occurred in walks and strikeouts. In 2009, the average offense walked 3.42 times per game and struck out 6.91 times per game. This year, the average offense walked 3.02 times per game and struck out 7.54 times per game.

With strikeouts up, the rate of balls in play has gone down. When those balls have been put in play, fielders have been converting them into outs at a very high rate. Major league defenders have compiled an aggregate .985 fielding percentage, the highest in baseball history. Fielding percentage is far from a perfect statistic, but we're also seeing a wave of great defenders lately, such as with Andrelton Simmons, Manny Machado and Carlos Gomez. The increase in defensive shifts has also helped teams turn more balls in play into outs.

So, baseballs are being put in play less often, and when a ball is put in play, it is more often turned into an out for the defense rather than a hit for the offense. A strikeout means (A) a ball isn't being put in play, creating a chance for a misplay; and (B) no baserunners are advancing. Factor in that with walks down, that means there is less likely to be a runner on base when there is a hit. In the playoffs, when you usually see above-average pitching staffs facing above-average offenses, this looms even larger since runs are at a premium. Teams reliant on power -- which tends to yield higher strikeout rates -- become gamblers, hoping the likes of Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright have bad games where home runs can be hit.

Will the Braves fail in the postseason specifically because they strike out too much? Probably not, but if manager Fredi Gonzalez was given a magic wand that could turn his offense into an equally competent team that relies on putting the ball in play more, based on recent trends, he would probably choose to alter his offense.

Bill Baer writes for Crashburn Alley and is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog.

I did my American League All-Star team yesterday. Here's my National League squad. A few more tougher calls in the NL.

Catcher: Yadier Molina, Cardinals (.319/.359/.477, 12 HR, 80 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Two questions: Is Molina a legitimate MVP candidate and how will he fare in the voting? Sure, he's a strong candidate, although I have Andrew McCutchen as my clear No. 1 guy. Due to his relatively low runs plus RBIs total (he has 68 runs scored), Molina would certainly be an unconventional MVP candidate. Wins Above Replacement accounts for some of Molina's defense -- such as throwing out runners -- but can't measure some of the intangibles, such as the confidence he gave to the young St. Louis starters. Molina's offense numbers are similar to last year, when he finished fourth in voting, so I wouldn't be surprised if he jumps up to second this season.

First base: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks (.302/.401/.553, 36 HR, 124 RBI, 7.1 WAR)
Goldschmidt or Joey Votto? It's not quite as simple as Goldschmidt's 51-RBI advantage as both put up similar numbers otherwise, with Votto having the edge in on-base percentage (.436) and Goldschmidt in power (36 home runs to 24). Both were extremely durable -- Goldschmidt has missed two games, Votto zero -- and solid defenders. The one big difference is an advanced metric called Win Probability Added, a category Goldschmidt led all NL position players in, thanks in part to his .350 average in high-leverage situations and nine home runs in late and close situations (second-most in the majors to Chris Davis). I'm confident Goldschmidt is the right choice here.

Second base: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals (.320/.394/.484, 11 HR, 78 RBI, 6.7 WAR)
An easy choice as Carpenter leads the NL in runs, hits and doubles while ranking in the top 10 in numerous other categories. I'm guessing Molina garners more MVP support, but Carpenter is just as worthy to finish in the top five.

Third base: David Wright, Mets (.308/.393/.516, 18 HR, 57 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Pedro Alvarez leads the NL with 36 home runs and has knocked in 100 but a .233 average and sub-.300 OBP means he created a ton of outs to generate those runs. Ryan Zimmerman waited too long to start hitting. Chris Johnson hit .321 for the Braves. None were above-average defenders. So almost by default I'll go with Wright, who easily has the highest WAR even though he missed 50 games.

Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons, Braves (.244/.292/.390, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 6.5 WAR)
I've been raving about Simmons all season so I can't change now. Troy Tulowitzki was great once again and relatively healthy (125 games), although he hit 61 points higher at home. Hanley Ramirez was the best on a per at-bat basis but played just 86 games. Ian Desmond flew under the radar year for the Nationals. But Simmons is my guy, even with that sub-.300 OBP. His defense was that good.

Left field: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies (.302/.367/.591, 26 HR, 70 RBI, 5.1 WAR)
Starling Marte had an excellent all-around season (41 steals, great defense) for the Pirates and Matt Holliday was solid for the Cardinals. Gonzalez's season was similar to Wright's -- if he'd remained healthy, he'd be the obvious choice, but he missed 50 games. Unlike Tulo, he actually hit better on the road, so it's not a Coors-inflated season. I'll go with CarGo just barely over Marte.

Center field: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (.317/.404/.508, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 8.2 WAR)
Carlos Gomez would be an MVP candidate if he had better teammates. Shin-Soo Choo gave the Reds exactly what they needed, a leadoff hitter who got on base. But this was McCutchen's season as he often carried a mediocre Pittburgh offense and hit .339/.441/.561 in the second half, helping keep the Pirates in the division title race. He's the likely MVP winner and not a "weak" MVP, as some have speculated. His WAR is higher than the past three NL MVPs, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and Votto. He may not drive in 100 runs or score 100 (he's at 97), but it was the best all-around season in the league.

Right field: Jayson Werth, Nationals (.318/.398/.532, 25 HR, 82 RBI, 4.8 WAR)
A loaded position, and that's with Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton missing significant time. Jay Bruce, Yasiel Puig, Hunter Pence and Marlon Byrd all have their supporters (and Gerardo Parra leads in WAR). The knock against Werth, like Wright and Gonzalez, is that he missed significant time (129 games). But Bruce has a .329 OBP. Puig didn't get called up until June and Pence's monster September (11 HR, 29 RBI) came after the Giants had long been eliminated and arguably against dubious September pitching.

Starting pitchers: Clayton Kersaw, Dodgers (16-9, 1.83 ERA, 8.0 WAR); Cliff Lee, Phillies (14-8, 2.87 ERA, 7.2 WAR); Jose Fernandez, Marlins (12-6, 2.19 ERA, 6.3 WAR); Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (19-9, 2.94 ERA, 6.2 WAR); Matt Harvey, Mets (9-5, 2.27 ERA, 5.4 WAR)
Oh, Cliff Lee is still good. There were no shortage of top starters in the NL as 18 qualified starters have posted an ERA of 3.25 or under, the most since 17 did it in 1992 and 10 more than last year.

Left-handed setup guy: Luis Avilan, Braves (5-0, 1.55 ERA)
Part of Atlanta's dominant bullpen, Avilan fanned just 38 in 64 innings but allowed a .173 average and just one home run. He gets great movement on his two-seam sinking fastball, resulting in fewer K's but a lot of groundballs. Honorable mention to Pittsburgh's Justin Wilson.

Right-handed setup guy: Mark Melancon, Pirates (3-2, 1.39 ERA)
He had a couple rough outings in September, but was dominant throughout the season, first setting up Jason Grilli and then earning 16 saves when Grilli was injured.

Closer: Craig Kimbrel, Braves (4-3, 50 saves, 1.23 ERA)
He did blow four save chances and wasn't quite as statistically dominant as last season -- and still finished with 1.23 ERA and 50 saves.

Maybe in 17 years or so, Jason Heyward will step up for his final at-bat in an Atlanta Braves uniform and his longtime teammate Freddie Freeman will come out of the dugout and call for a pinch hitter. Freeman will give Heyward one of his famous hugs, Heyward will tear up a little bit and Braves fans will give him a standing ovation.

OK, OK … that's a bit far into the future. But Heyward did receive a great ovation on Thursday after perhaps his best game in the majors, going 5-for-5 with a home run and three doubles -- the first five-hit game of his career. In doing so, Heyward became just the fifth player this season with four extra-base hits in a game.

Heyward broke his jaw a month ago when he was hit by a Jonathon Niese fastball, and returned just a week ago, wearing a face guard to protect the injury (the face guard has come a long way since Dave Parker). He was 2-for-15 in five games, so the five-hit game has to have helped his confidence as the postseason approaches.

"It is good to get hits," said Heyward. "Good to get on base and get the game going early. We are still playing for something."

It's not exactly fair to say one player is the key to a team's postseason success, but Heyward is probably that guy for the Braves, at least among the position players. Read into this stat what you will, but the Braves are 64-30 when Heyward starts and 30-35 when he doesn't. Besides the month he missed with the broken jaw, he also missed a month early in the season after having an appendectomy. Maybe it's a coincidence that the Braves struggled both times Heyward was out, but it's hard to deny his importance in their lineup, not to mention his defense in the outfield.

The Braves had struggled all season to find a proper leadoff hitter -- you know, one who gets on base -- until Fredi Gonzalez moved Heyward there in late July. Heyward had already recovered from a slow start; after hitting below .200 through June 8, he has hit .296/.374/.508 since. That's great production from your cleanup hitter, let alone your leadoff guy.

Since returning, Heyward has also played five of his six games in center field, a sign that he'll be there in the playoffs, with B.J. Upton and his sub-.200 average relegated to the bench. Heyward will also be seeking some postseason redemption. As a rookie in 2010, he went 2-for-16 with eight strikeouts in a four-game loss to the Giants in the Division Series. (He went 1-for-5 with a double in last year's wild-card game, a loss to the Cardinals.)

Heyward's big game came on a night catcher Brian McCann had to leave after two innings with a strained groin. He's listed as day-to-day, so keep an eye on that.

The Braves are just 11-13 in September after Thursday's win, and while they once looked like a lock for the best record in the NL, they are now tied with the Cardinals at 94-65. It's not an insignificant race; the Braves are 54-24 at home and 40-41 on the road, the largest home/road split of any playoff team. They'd clearly love to get the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage through the NLCS.

But home field isn't the only incentive for the final three games: The No. 1 seed gets the Pirates/Reds winner instead of the Dodgers … and avoids Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. No offense to A.J. Burnett and Homer Bailey or whoever ends up starting Game 1 of the Division Series for the Pirates or Reds, but those guys aren't Clayton Kershaw, and you do not want to potentially face Kershaw twice in a five-game series.

(Atlanta does own the tiebreaker over St. Louis due to winning the season series, 4 to 3.)

Heyward has slipped under the radar this season, with most of the national attention surrounding the Braves devoted to Freeman's 100 RBIs, or Andrelton Simmons and his amazing defense, or rookie Evan Gattis' inspiring story, or Justin Upton's hot April, or Craig Kimbrel's dominance as closer, or Upton's struggles.

Heyward has been in the background all summer long. I have a feeling October may be his time to steal the spotlight.

That's clinching a playoff spot in style. John Lackey completed Boston's metamorphosis from worst to first -- OK, the Red Sox haven't officially clinched first place just yet -- with a two-hit, 3-1 victory over the Orioles on Thursday. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and finished it off with a 1-2-3 ninth inning.

Lackey's own transformation was officially stamped as well. Two years ago, he was the most hated man in Boston -- at least next to the fried chicken chef -- when he posted a 6.41 ERA in 28 starts. On this night, the Fenway faithful chanted "Lac-key! Lac-key!" as he retired Adam Jones on a fly ball for the final out, the city's love affair with baseball as strong as ever after last year's disastrous season.

In watching Lackey power his way through the Orioles' lineup, there was little doubt about the statement he and the Red Sox are making these days: They're the best team in baseball, a team whose only weakness right now is waiting to see if center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury will return from a fracture in his foot for the postseason.

As Lackey also showed, this is a starting rotation that goes four deep, especially with Clay Buchholz looking good in two starts since returning from three months on the disabled list. The Red Sox can line up their postseason rotation with Jon Lester, Buchholz, Jake Peavy and Lackey, a group deep enough that you'd feel confident no matter who had to start the first game of the American League Championship Series or the first game of the World Series.

Buchholz is 11-0 with a 1.51 ERA, but Lester has matured into the leader of the staff, with a 2.38 ERA since the All-Star break, pitching his best baseball since he finished fourth in the 2010 Cy Young voting. Peavy has a 3.68 ERA in nine starts since coming over from the White Sox, cutting his home run rate since leaving the hitter-friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field.

But it's Lackey as the No. 4 starter who makes this group as good a foursome as any playoff team's. Maybe the Red Sox lack the dynamite 1-2 the Dodgers have in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but considering Lester's second half and Buchholz's overall numbers, that pair isn't far behind. Against the Orioles, Lackey threw 82 of 113 pitches for strikes, pounding the strike zone and hitting corners like he's done all season, once again showcasing why he has a career-best walk rate. Ninety of those 113 pitches were fastballs -- primarily going outside corner to lefties and outside corner to righties. Even though he's up in the zone a lot, he gets late movement on the pitch, making him one of the few starters who can rely on his fastball as a strikeout pitch and not just to set up his off-speed stuff -- he's recorded 83 strikeouts on his fastball, 11th most in the majors.

When you look at the other rotations in the American League, you see holes. Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez have been great for the Tigers, but Justin Verlander hasn't been JUSTIN VERLANDER this year and Doug Fister has a 4.73 ERA against teams over .500. The A's group is solid, although helped by their home park, and I'm not taking A.J. Griffin and Dan Straily (or Sonny Gray) over Peavy and Lackey. The Rays aren't even a lock to get in and Matt Moore got pounded on Thursday and has battled control issues all season. Baltimore? Cleveland? Please. In the National League, the Cardinals are counting on two rookies, the Braves lack an ace and have beaten up on some terrible offenses in the NL East and the Pirates are relying on A.J. Burnett -- 5.32 ERA over his past eight starts -- and Charlie Morton.

Even if you don't think Boston's rotation is the best, it's the offense that sets the Red Sox apart. No team can match their lineup depth; they've scored 36 more runs than the Tigers (in a division with better pitching), and Miguel Cabrera, the driver of the Detroit attack, has battled injuries in September, hitting just .227 with two extra-base hits. He's just not the same MVP force he has been most of the season, and if he's not a force the Tigers obviously have a less threatening lineup.

In the NL, the Cardinals are deep but have one empty hole in shortstop Pete Kozma and cleanup hitter Allen Craig is still out with a sprained foot. The Dodgers don't quite have the same depth, although if Hanley Ramirez (who went 4-for-4 on Thursday) and Matt Kemp prove to be healthy, they can get on a roll as we saw for much of the summer. The Braves are still without Jason Heyward and Justin Upton has three RBIs in his past 24 games.

In September, the Red Sox lead the majors in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and home runs. Their pitching staff has allowed the lowest batting average in September and the second-lowest OPS (to the Nationals). Their closer has allowed one run in his past 32.1 innings.

The best team in baseball right now? It's the Red Sox.

Which probably means absolutely nothing once the playoffs start.

The National League playoff teams are all bet set -- with the Nationals losing last night and the Reds beating the Astros in 13 innings you can pretty much write off the Nationals -- so Eric Karabell and myself look at some key injuries to pay attention to these final days.

Quick thoughts on the Nationals' ninth-inning 6-5 comeback win over Craig Kimbrel and the Braves in the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader ...

• How rare of a blow-up was it for Craig Kimbrel? It was the first time he'd allowed three runs in game in his career and just the third time in two seasons he's allowed more than one run. He'd walked two batters in a game just three times previously in 2013, and in one of those appearances one of the walks was intentional.
• So great job by Adam LaRoche to start the inning by working the walk on the 3-2 fastball. A little surprising that Kimbrel didn't go to the slider there. Lefties were hitting .068 against the slider -- with 33 strikeouts and no walks in 44 plate appearances ending with that pitch. Basically, when Kimbrel gets to two strikes, the slider is unhittable.
• From there, an infield single, another walk, an RBI groundout and the rare error from Andrelton Simmons that allowed the winning runs to score.
• Where is Jayson Werth on your MVP ballot? He had an RBI double off Mike Minor in the Nationals' three-run first inning and is hitting .322/.398/.536 with 23 home runs and 74 RBIs. Certainly he's been a huge key in keeping the Nationals from disintegrating with a monster second half in which he's hit .352 with 41 RBIs in 52 games. Still, he missed all but one game in May, and those 30 missing games count against him. He's been Washington's most valuable position player, but I'm not sure he'd crack my top-10 MVP ballot due to the injury.
• The Nationals' chances to catch the Reds are still pretty slim, sitting 4½ games back heading into Tuesday night's games. Put it this way: If Washington goes 10-2 in its final 12 games, it needs Cincinnati to go 5-6 over its final 11 to match the Reds at 90 wins. Now, that's possible; the Reds do play the Pirates in six of those games, but they also get the Astros twice more and the Mets three times next week. The Nationals face the Marlins after the Braves but finish up with a six-game road trip to St. Louis and Arizona. The Cardinals will still be fighting for the division title, although Arizona may be thinking about golf by then. Our playoff odds from coolstandings.com gives the Nationals a 4 percent chance of making it. Things will look a lot more interesting after Tuesday night, however, if Washington wins again and Cincinnati loses.
• What's been the big turnaround for the Nats? On Aug. 19 they were 60-64. Since then they've gone 20-6. Well, the schedule has been key. Twenty-two of those 26 games have come against sub-.500 teams (thank you, NL East). They've hit .293/.359/.479 over those 26 games. Thank you, bad pitching. OK, Denard Span and Ryan Zimmerman finally got going.
• Washington starts rookie Tanner Roark in the nightcap against Freddy Garcia -- yes, that Freddy Garcia -- so it's a good opportunity for another win since Freddy Garcia is Freddy Garcia. Roark is making his third start, but he's kind of been a good-luck charm of late with a 6-0 record. I'm guessing Kimbrel is unavailable, and maybe Luis Avilan as well. Kimbrel threw 27 pitches, Avilan 13, and there's little incentive for Fredi Gonzalez to burn through his best relievers with division all but clinched.
• The Reds start Mike Leake in Houston against Jordan Lyles. The Nats' chances may be slim, but at least they've given their fans a reason to watch that out-of-town scoreboard.

Just more than two weeks ago, the Texas Rangers were in pretty good position, leading the A’s by 2.5 games in the American League West and coming off a 20-7 August that had them angling for the best record in the league, even with the Red Sox and Tigers in the lead as September began.

In other words, they were at least making preliminary plans on how to line up their postseason rotation. Matt Garza, acquired from the Cubs on July 22 for four players, would be a big part of that rotation, slotting in behind Yu Darvish and perhaps ahead of Derek Holland. He was one of the big fish at the trade deadline, the top-of-the-rotation starter teams desired to bulk up their rotation.

Well, Garza has proven to be one of the key deadline acquisitions -- only in a negative way. The Rangers are a disastrous 2-12 in September, collapsing down the stretch for the second straight season, and Garza has become the symbol of this horridness. He had another poor effort in Monday’s 6-2 loss to the Rays, getting knocked out in the fifth inning while allowing eight hits and six runs. Over his past nine starts, he has a 5.72 ERA and just one quality start. He has hardly been an improvement over the replacement-level pitchers the Rangers had been throwing out there.

Garza is not the only reason the Rangers have struggled. Their success in August was masked somewhat by their schedule -- they played only four games against winning teams in the month, beating up on the likes of the Astros, Mariners and White Sox. As the schedule got tougher, the Rangers’ weaknesses have been highlighted. As Gerry Fraley pointed out on Twitter, the Rangers haven’t led now in seven consecutive games, the first time that has happened since the franchise moved from Washington. That was 1972. The Rangers have a great bullpen, but they can’t get the lead.

Meanwhile, Alex Cobb delivered another solid outing for the Rays, with 10 strikeouts over eight innings, improving to 9-3 with a 3.02 ERA and giving the Rays temporary breathing room in the wild-card race (one game over Texas, 1.5 over Cleveland).

With that game in mind, speaking of playoff rotations, how do the contenders line up? Let's check some of the things managers are looking at.

Atlanta Braves
Mike Minor probably lines up as their No. 1, but it’s possible that Kris Medlen slots ahead of Julio Teheran even though Teheran has better numbers on the season, especially if the Braves lock up home field for the first round (they currently have the best record in the NL). Medlen has pitched well of late, but he also has a sizable home/road split (2.45 ERA at home, 4.27 on the road).

Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are the easiest one-two on the board, with Ricky Nolasco (terrific with the Dodgers other than his last start) and Hyun-Jin Ryu after that, perhaps depending on who finishes best over these final two weeks.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers who started on Monday in the NL are lined up to also start the wild-card game, which takes place on Tuesday after the season ends on Sept. 29, given four days between starts. For the Pirates, that suggests that if they don’t win the division, A.J. Burnett draws the assignment for that game. Here:

Monday, Sept. 16: Pitch
Tuesday, Sept. 17: Off
Wednesday, Sept. 18: Off
Thursday, Sept. 19: Off
Friday, Sept. 20: Off
Saturday, Sept. 21: Pitch
Sunday, Sept. 22: Off
Monday, Sept. 23: Off
Tuesday, Sept. 24: Off
Wednesday, Sept. 25: Off
Thursday, Sept. 26: Pitch
Friday, Sept. 27: Off
Saturday, Sept. 28: Off
Sunday, Sept. 29: Off
Monday, Sept. 30: Off
Tuesday, Oct. 1: Start wild-card game

Now, that’s assuming the NL Central division race goes down to the season’s final day and rotations aren't altered. However, the Pirates have another option: Francisco Liriano is scheduled to start this coming Friday, then again on Wednesday the 25th. So he could also pitch the wild-card game on five days’ rest if he doesn’t start the season finale on short rest (otherwise that would be Gerrit Cole’s game). If the Pirates end up facing the Reds, Liriano could get the start in an attempt to neutralize the Reds’ left-handed batters of Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

St. Louis Cardinals
Using the same math we did for the Pirates, the Cardinals would be lined up with Shelby Miller (Sunday’s starter) or Lance Lynn (Monday’s starter) in the wild-card game. Adam Wainwright starts Wednesday and Monday, putting him in line for a Saturday start in the final weekend and out of the wild-card game (he’d be pitching on two days’ rest). Again, all that is contingent on the division not being settled until the very end.

Cincinnati Reds
Perhaps the most interesting result from Monday was Johnny Cueto's making his first start for the Reds since June 28 and going five innings and 82 pitches against the Astros, allowing no runs. Yes, it was the Astros, and Reds fans on Twitter said Cueto was bailed out a couple of times but that his curveball looked great. If Cueto can get up to 100 pitches, Dusty Baker has to consider him for the rotation. Of course, the Reds have to get past the wild-card game first, and Baker has Mat Latos or Homer Bailey lined up full rest to start that game, as he’s going with six starters this week (with a day off on Thursday). He’s starting Greg Reynolds on Wednesday against Houston, lining up Latos and Bailey to pitch against the Pirates (and Liriano and Burnett) on Friday and Saturday. Good stuff.

Boston Red Sox
Jon Lester is presumably the No. 1 here, although Clay Buchholz has shown good results in two starts since coming off a three-month DL stint. Jake Peavy and John Lackey would fill out the 3-4 spots in some order.

Oakland A’s
Bartolo Colon has the better season numbers, but would Jarrod Parker draw the A's Game 1 start? He was Oakland’s Game 1 starter last year as a rookie, losing twice in the Division Series to Justin Verlander. He’d been on a roll until Monday’s start against the Angels, going 9-1 with a 2.60 ERA in 21 starts since struggling early in the season. Colon had a little blip in early August with back-to-back five-run starts, but has a 1.13 ERA over his past four starts. This could be a matchup thing: If the A’s play a team with a heavy dosage of left-handed hitters (like Boston), maybe Parker gets the start since his changeup is so effective against lefties. Against a right-handed team (Detroit), maybe Colon draws Game 1. After that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see rookie Sonny Gray get Game 3 over the homer-prone Dan Straily or A.J. Griffin.

Detroit Tigers
Two questions: (1) Anibal Sanchez or Justin Verlander as the No. 2 starter behind Max Scherzer (I’d go Sanchez, as he’s simply better than Verlander right now); (2) Has Rick Porcello jumped over Doug Fister as the Tigers' fourth guy? Porcello has pitched well his past two starts, but those came against the Mariners and the White Sox. Before that, the Red Sox pounded him for nine runs. But Fister has also been inconsistent, with two seven-run starts mixed in with a one-run and no-run effort in his past four outings.

I’m not going to go through all the wild-card contenders, but since the AL wild-card game is played on Wednesday, Oct. 2, here’s each team’s probable wild-card starter:

Tampa Bay: David Price. He’s scheduled to go on Friday and next Wednesday, giving him six days of rest before the wild-card game.

Texas: Martin Perez, Matt Garza or Alexi Ogando. Right now, Yu Darvish is scheduled to go Thursday/Tuesday/Sunday. If Darvish isn’t need on that final day, he gets the wild-card game.

Cleveland: Zach McAllister, Scott Kazmir or Corey Kluber. The Indians have an off day next week, so they could end up skipping Danny Salazar and starting Ubaldo Jimenez next Tuesday and then again on the final day of the season (if needed) or the wild-card game (if not needed the final day).

Baltimore: Miguel Gonzalez or Scott Feldman.

New York: With an off day, next week, the Yankees can skip Phil Hughes and go with Hiroki Kuroda (Tuesday), CC Sabathia (Wednesday), Ivan Nova (Thursday), Andy Pettitte (Friday), Hughes (Saturday), Kuroda (Sunday). So, it could be Sabathia, Nova or Pettitte in the wild-card game.

Kansas City: James Shields. The Royals have an off day on Thursday, so Shields is slated to pitch again on Sunday, then next Friday, which sets him up for the wild-card game on four days’ rest.

Whew. Got all that? And I'm sure I'll hear it from Nationals fans for not including them ...

Back in March, Goose Gossage said he thinks Mariano Rivera is pretty great, but also added, "I think that these guys are so dominant in that one-inning role that they've forgotten what we used to do. It takes three guys to do what we used to do."

He's right, of course. I wrote about Gossage versus Rivera at the time, so I'm not going to revisit that debate. But in writing earlier about Koji Uehara's terrific season, I pointed out that Gossage's 1975 season with the White Sox rates as the most valuable relief season ever, at least by Baseball-Reference WAR.

Gossage was 23 years old that year, turned 24 in July. It was his second full season in the majors and he went 9-8 with a 1.84 ERA and league-leading 26 saves. More impressively, he pitched 141.2 innings, held batters to a .201 average and allowed just three home runs.

I thought it would be fun to take a quick look at Gossage's season. Let's compare it to Craig Kimbrel's 2012 season, certainly one of the greatest seasons ever by a modern closer.

Appearances
Gossage: 62
Kimbrel: 63

One concept of the modern closer is that using him for one inning supposedly means he is available to pitch in more games, but that wasn't the case with Gossage's season.

Innings
Gossage: 141.2
Kimbrel: 62.2

Gossage threw more innings than Kimbrel has in two seasons.

Inning of entry
Gossage: 3rd (1 time), 5th (6), 6th (8), 7th (20), 8th (13), 9th (12), extra (2)
Kimbrel: 8th (1), 9th (60), extra (2)

Obviously, the modern closer is used only in the ninth to protect a lead, or in home games when the game is tied. Gossage was used any time the game was close, usually in the seventh inning on, but sometimes in the fifth or sixth.

Times pitched more than one inning
Gossage: 41
Kimbrel: 1

Here's an interesting nugget: Gossage pitched exactly one inning just three times. So even when he entered in the ninth, it was often after the starter or another reliever had run into trouble, not to start the inning.

Longest outing
Gossage: 7.2 innings
Kimbrel: 1.1 innings

Gossage pitched five-plus innings six times and three-plus 22 times. On this account, he's absolutely right about the modern closers. Imagine if managers stretched out the bullpens even a little bit, cut down on a reliever or two, and added another bat or pinch-runner to the bench. Would teams be better off? Gossage's 7.2-inning stint came on June 11 against Boston. He entered in the seventh inning and pitched through the 14th -- finally faltering in the 14th, giving up two runs on a Carl Yastrzemski home run and taking the loss. At least he was given three days of rest before his next appearance.

Inherited runners
Gossage: 99
Kimbrel: 4

Another huge difference between generations. Modern closers, even with their sky-high strikeout rates, are rarely brought in to actually put out fires. That's left to the middle relievers. Gossage had to escape jams and pitch the rest of the game.

So, yes, modern closers like Kimbrel and Uehara and Rivera are harder to hit and more dominant than ever. But, as Gossage said, don't forget what he used to do.

By the way, in 1976 the White Sox hired Paul Richards as manager. He was 67 and hadn't managed since 1961. That was a different and he thought it made sense to put your best arms in the rotation, so he mad Gossage a starter. He went 9-17 with a 3.94 ERA ... although did throw 15 complete games. Chuck Tanner, who managed him in 1975, got him in trade for the Pirates and returned him to the bullpen. From 1977 through 1985, Gossage posted a 2.10 ERA while averaging 93 innings per season.

Fun with numbers ...

Lowest batting averaged allowed (50 innings minimum):

1. Koji Uehara, 2013 Red Sox: .126
2. Craig Kimbrel, 2012 Braves: .126
3. Eric Gagne, 2003 Dodgers: .133
4. Carlos Marmol, 2008 Cubs: .135
5. Billy Wagner, 1999 Astros: .135

Lowest on-base percentage allowed:

1. Koji Uehara, 2013 Red Sox: .163
2. Dennis Eckersely, 1990 A's: .172
3. Dennis Eckersley, 1989 A's: .175
4. Craig Kimbrel, 2012 Braves: .186
5. Joaquin Benoit, 2010 Rays: .189

Lowest OPS allowed:

1. Craig Kimbrel, 2012 Braves: .358
2. Eric Gagne, 2003 Dodgers: .374
3. Koji Uehara, 2013 Red Sox: .393
4. Dennis Eckersley, 1990 A's: .397
5. Hong-Chih Kuo, 2010 Dodgers: .403

OK, Koji Uehara has clearly been one of the most difficult relief pitchers to hit in a single season. Throw in his impeccable control and he's also been the hardest to reach base against. He's 4-0 with a 1.06 ERA, 19 saves and has retired 37 consecutive batters entering Monday's action. So, is he having one of the most valuable relief seasons ever?

That's a more complicated question. If we look just at relief pitchers since 1960, the answer is clearly no. Baseball-Reference rates Uehara's season at 3.4 WAR, but that pales to the best relief seasons:

1. Rich Gossage, 1975 White Sox: 8.2 WAR
2. John Hiller, 1973 Tigers: 8.1 WAR
3. Mark Eichhorn, 1986 Blue Jays: 7.4 WAR
4. Bruce Sutter, 1977 Cubs: 6.5 WAR
5. Jim Kern, 1979 Rangers: 6.2 WAR

Of course, the difference here is workload. Gossage threw 145 innings with a 1.84 ERA, Hiller 125 with a 1.44 ERA. Eichhorn pitched 157 innings -- averaging more than two innings per appearance -- and went 14-6 with 10 saves as the Blue Jays' workhorse setup man.

Uehara is the modern incarnation of the closer, rarely entering with men on base or before the ninth inning (he started the year as a setup guy). Because of this usage pattern, it's impossible for a modern closer to create the same value as the relief aces of the 1970s or early '80s. Let's look at the most valuable relief seasons since 1988, Eckersley's first full season as the Oakland closer, according to WAR. Tony La Russa is often "credited" with creating the one-inning closer with Eckersley, although that's a bit of a misreading of history since Eckersley recorded 16 saves that year when entering before the ninth. Really, it's been a slow treak to the one-inning closer, La Russa and Eckersley merely being one step along the way.

Anyway, highest WAR for relievers since 1988:

1. Jonathan Papelbon, 2006 Red Sox: 5.0
2. Mariano Rivera, 1996 Yankees: 5.0
3. Steve Farr, 1990 Royals: 4.8
4. Jeff Montgomery, 1989 Royals: 4.6
5. Mark Davis, 1989 Padres: 4.5

(Interestingly, Farr, Montgomery and Davis were all in the bullpen for the 1990 Royals. They finished 75-86.)

Papelbon, pitching in a higher-scoring era than Uehara this year, went 4-2 with 35 saves and a 0.92 ERA, allowing just eight runs in 68.1 innings. Rivera was John Wetteland's setup man in 1996, and it arguably remains his best season as a reliever as he pitched 107.2 innings that year with a 2.97 ERA.

Overall, at least in the context of WAR, Uehara's season is special but not that special. Since 1988, he ranks tied for 64th at 3.4 WAR, the same total Kimbrel has this year for the Braves. Baseball-Reference's system for evaluating relievers does factor in leverage; it's just hard for closers to compile higher WAR figure pitching one-inning stints and entering in higher-leverage situations.

That said, Uehara does fare well in some other advanced stats. Since closers only pitch in close games, they often fare better than starters in Win Probability Added -- basically, an out in a one-run game is more valuable than an out in a five-run game. Uehara is tied with Royals closer Greg Holland for the AL lead at 4.1 WPA (Max Scherzer is the highest-rated AL starter at 3.5 WPA). Among relievers, Uehara ranks 72nd in WPA since 1988 (Troy Percival's 6.58 in 1996 tops that list).

In the end, I'd classify Uehara's season as a great year -- he's right up there with with Kimbrel and Mark Melancon for my reliever of the year -- but not necessarily historic, despite his stingy totals of baserunners allowed.

Your team is out of it, but you still love baseball. You intend keep checking box scores and watching the big games these final two weeks. You'll watch the playoffs, but you need a team to root for.

So, who to pick from the remaining teams in contention? I mean, you could just go with the team that's gone the longest without a World Series title -- that would either be the Indians (1948) or the Rangers (never). You could go with the biggest underdog -- probably the Pirates, who hadn't had a winning season since 1992. You could go with the smallest payroll -- that would be the Rays. Or maybe you just want Bud Selig to hand Alex Rodriguez that World Series MVP trophy.

But there are various factors you should consider in order to make the correct choice. I've weighted five different categories: misery (how much suffering have those franchise's fans gone through?), 2013 storyline (what made them interesting?), star factor (stars make October baseball more intriguing), payroll (high, medium or low payroll?) and fan support (do their own fans care?). The first three categories are judged on a five-point scale (five being highest) and payroll and fan support are judged on a three-point scale. Total maximum points is thus 21. Ties are broken by the team that's gone longest without winning a World Series.

14. New York Yankees: 12 points
Misery: 1
2013 storyline: 4
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

No, Yankees fans, suffering through Jayson Nix, Austin Romine and Brent Lillibridge doesn't count as misery. There's no denying this has been a compelling season in the Bronx, with all the injuries and a team of, in many cases, replacement-level players hanging in the race. Throw in the A-Rod saga and Mariano Rivera's final campaign, and the Yankees certainly would make October fascinating if they sneak in. Still, they're the Yankees, even with Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira injured and CC Sabathia pitching more like Andy Hawkins.

13. Atlanta Braves: 12 points
Misery: 3
2013 storyline: 2
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 2

It's been 18 years now since the Braves won their only World Series during their glorious run of 14 consecutive playoff appearances. It's also been 12 years since the Braves won a playoff series, the 2001 Division Series. While they lack that one big star, perhaps the most interesting aspect is their youth -- Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Craig Kimbrel are all 25 or younger. It's a young team that's going to be around a long time. But it's also a team that's doing exactly what everyone expected, minus the expected competition from the Nationals.

12. Tampa Bay Rays: 12 points
Misery: 3
2013 storyline: 2
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 3
Fan support: 1

Heres the deal: Maybe we're getting a little Rays fatigue. OK, we get it; small payroll, genius manager, genius front office, crummy stadium. But this is the sixth year since that shocking 2008 World Series appearance -- isn't it time the team actually does something in the postseason? Plus, this isn't really that compelling a team, and if they do make it, we have to watch postseason games played indoors. Then again, I'd rather have a World Series game indoors than in that 20-something wind chill last year in Detroit.

11. St. Louis Cardinals: 13 points
Misery: 1
2013 storyline: 3
Star factor: 4
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 3

The Cardinals will be back in the postseason for the fourth time in five seasons and 10th in 14 going back to 2000. It's not quite a dynasty on the level of the 1990s Braves or 1995-to-present Yankees (although Cardinals fans will be quick to point out they've won one more championship in this run than the Braves did). With all their recent success, they score well in star factor, although two of their best players are the underappreciated Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig (although Craig is out right now with a foot sprain). The Cardinals have had an interesting season, with the gutsy move of Carpenter to second base, a rotation now relying on two rookies and Edward Mujica taking over as closer. But they've won two titles recently, so it's hard to muster up much enthusiasm for them.

10. Cincinnati Reds: 13 points
Misery: 4
2013 storyline: 2
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 2

No team has had a season closer to what you would have expected from them on paper than the Reds. The rotation has been very good, even with Johnny Cueto missing a lot of time; Joey Votto has been an MVP candidate; Shin-Soo Choo gave the team the leadoff hitter it missed last year; Jay Bruce has hit home runs; and Dusty Baker struggled to find a No. 2 hitter. The team has been one of the healthiest in the majors, a few injuries in the bullpen notwithstanding. It's a fun team to watch with Votto, Choo, Bruce and Brandon Phillips; Mat Latos and Homer Bailey turning into a dynamic one-two punch in the rotation; Bronson Arroyo keepng hitters off-balance with his broad arsenal of stuff; Aroldis Chapman firing 100-mph fastballs in the ninth; and the anxiety (if you're a Reds fan) of wondering how Dusty will screw it up.

9. Boston Red Sox: 14 points
Misery: 2
2013 storyline: 5
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

Red Sox fans will argue that the past two seasons caused undue amounts of misery, but this is still a franchise with a lot of recent success. What's interesting about this team is its lack of star power once you get past Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz. In fact, Shane Victorino, the much-criticized free-agent signing, leads the team in WAR at 5.6 and closer Koji Uehara -- who took over the role only after injuries to Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey -- has had one of the best relief seasons in history, with a 1.06 ERA and an amazing .126 batting average allowed. And remember: Most people didn’t even pick the Red Sox to make the playoffs. It's not exactly an underdog team, but it is a team that has exceeded expectations.

8. Kansas City Royals: 14 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 3
Star factor: 2
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 2

Here’s a weird thing: With the Astros moving over to the American League, the AL has seven of the worst teams in attendance, with only the Marlins cracking the bottom eight from the NL. And while you can point to market size or team quality, consider that the Rockies, playing in a midsize market with a lousy team, are averaging over 34,000 fans per game -- more than 12,000 per game more than the A’s, Royals, Indians or Marlins. Of course we'd like to see the Royals make the playoffs, since they haven't done so since 1985, but is it really a team built to do any damage in October? Well, possibly. They don't score a lot of runs, but the rotation and bullpen are good enough to get on a roll.

7. Texas Rangers: 15 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 3
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

It's easy to root for the Rangers. After all, they've never won a World Series and were one strike away in 2011 before losing in excruciatingly painful fashion. They lost in the wild-card game last year and have had to battle through injuries to the pitching staff and the suspension of Nelson Cruz and loss of Josh Hamilton. On the other hand, a lot of the misery has been self-inflicted. Ron Washington mismanaged that 2011 World Series, they choked down the stretch last year and Cruz wasn't suspended for helping old ladies cross the street. On the other hand, Yu Darvish would be fun to watch in October, even if the Metroplex is more interested by then in the Cowboys' backup fullback.

6. Cleveland Indians: 15 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 5
Star factor: 2
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 1

Here come the Indians! They are now just a half-game out of the wild card (thank you, slumping Rays and Rangers). So, yes, there's been misery. Lots of it. I would say the Indians arguably deserve to top this list, except their own fans haven't even bothered to show up this year; only the Rays have averaged fewer per game. If the Indians do get into the wild-card game, Ubaldo Jimenez could be a tough foe to face considering his pitching of late (assuming he would be in line to start the game).

5. Oakland A's: 16 points
Misery: 4
2013 storyline: 4
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 3
Fan support: 2

As Matt Meyers wrote here on Friday, the amazing thing about the A's is they're doing this the exact same way as last year: without big stars, without a slew of high draft picks, without -- of course -- a large payroll or great fan support (they are not large in numbers, but they're passionate). Josh Donaldson leads the team in WAR at 7.3, but he's hardly a household name outside of the Bay Area. Bartolo Colon leads the pitching staff in WAR, which is really one of the most incredible stats of the season: A team that is going to win its division is led by a 40-year-old with the highest percentage of body fat in the majors. How can you not love this team?

4. Detroit Tigers: 16 points
Misery: 4
2013 storyline: 3
Star factor: 5
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer have garnished all the headlines this year, and deservedly so, although once again it hasn't been the easiest trek to a division title despite all that star power. The Tigers have an interesting misery rating, with World Series losses in 2006 and 2012, those awful teams of the early 2000s, and all the high expectations in recent seasons. Is this finally the year?

3. Baltimore Orioles: 16 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 4
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 2

It's been 30 years since the Orioles have made it to the World Series. From Jeffrey Maier to 14 consecutive losing seasons to last year's heartbreaking playoff loss to the Yankees, O's fans have certainly suffered. Unfortunately, they just can't get on that five- or six-game winning streak they need, and we're probably looking at a playoffs without Chris Davis and Manny Machado.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers: 17 points
Misery: 3
2013 storyline: 5
Star factor: 5
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

With Clayton Kershaw, Yasiel Puig, Zack Greinke, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez and maybe Matt Kemp -- not mention Magic Johnson in the owner's box -- there’s no denying the star power on this team. Their regular season has certainly been one of the more interesting in recent years, with a 30-42 record through June 21 nearly leading to manager Don Mattingly getting fired, followed by a 42-8 stretch that was the best in the majors since the 1942 Cardinals. After dropping to sixth in the NL in attendance in the final year of the McCourt regime, Dodger fans have returned in full force, leading the majors and up nearly 5,000 per game from last year. I will say this though: While they haven't won (or been to) a World Series since 1988, the misery suffered under Frank McCourt has been vastly overstated -- the Dodgers made the playoffs four times in eight years under him. A lot of franchises should enjoy such misery.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: 18 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 5
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 3
Fan support: 2

No surprise. The Pirates are more than just an underdog; they're a team with many great backstories, as well as a team that is just flat-out fun to watch and easy to root for. Obviously, the Pirates rate high in the misery and 2013 storyline categories. They are lower in the star factor once you get past MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, but that doesn't make then uninteresting. A rotation led by A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano isn't lacking for backstories, rookie Gerrit Cole will refreshingly continue to pitch even though he could top 200 innings if the Pirates go deep into the postseason and the bullpen duo of Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli were basically obtained off the scrap heap. Kudos to GM Neal Huntington for acquiring Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau down the stretch to improve the team's depth.

Some quick thoughts on Wednesday's results and a look forward to Thursday.

At-bats of the night: Robinson Cano and Mike Carp hit home runs as the Yankees and Red Sox won late. I wrote about those two games here.


Pitching performance of the day: Jose Fernandez completed his brilliant rookie season by allowing one run in seven innings -- and also hitting a home run, which rubbed the Braves the wrong way when he admired it for few seconds (God forbid!) and led to a little bench-clearing exchange of phone numbers. Fernandez apologized for his actions, which included some looks into the Atlanta dugout after giving up a home run to Evan Gattis, saying, "I feel embarrassed. I feel like I don't deserve to be here, because this isn't high school. This is a professional game. I made a mistake. I'm going to learn from it." Love the mature response after the fact. Cut the kid some slack. He got caught up in the excitement of his final game.

Anyway, what were the playoff implications here? Well, the Braves are battling the Dodgers for home-field advantage in the NL, currently holding a 2-game lead. Considering Atlanta has an MLB-best 51-20 home record, it's not an insignificant race to look at.

Most important win: The Yankees beating the Orioles and climbing over the O's and Indians into second place in the second wild card standings. Yay for the second wild!

Most important loss: The Pirates sat Andrew McCutchen and didn't have Mark Melancon or Jason Grilli available, but they beat the Rangers 7-5 as Vin Mazzaro got out of a jam in the eighth and Kyle Farnsworth got the save. That completed a sweep over the Rangers, who received another poor effort from Matt Garza. Combined with the A's 18-3 thrashing of the Twins, the Rangers are now 3 games behind the A's and just 3.5 up on the Yankees.

Thursday's best pitching matchup: Jake Peavy versus Jeremy Hellickson (Red Sox at Rays, 7:10 ET). As one reader on Twitter commented to me, maybe the Rays have been eating too much fried chicken. They're 4-13 since Aug. 25, hitting .226 and averaging 2.6 runs per game over that span. After going 0-5 in a six-start stretch with a 9.00 ERA, Hellickson tossed 5.1 scoreless innings his last start.


Player to watch: Yoenis Cespedes, A's. Is he heating up at the right time? He's hitting .421/.450/.632 in September after hitting .216 in August. It could be a hot streak fueled by a .500 BABIP, since his strikeout-to-walk rate is still poor (8 to 1), but if he gets going after a disappointing year, the A's will be that much harder to catch. The A's have an afternoon game in Minnesota while the Rangers get the day off before the teams meet for a weekend showdown in Texas.

With Clay Buchholz returning to the Boston Red Sox's rotation with his first start since June 8 and resembling the pitcher who had started off 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA, it's a good time to examine the potential playoff rotations of the teams already locked into playoff spots. (Well, close to locking up playoff spots at least.)

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
Ricky Nolasco
Hyun-jin Ryu

Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, a guy who has allowed one run or no runs in nearly half his starts (14 out of 30). If there's one pitcher most likely to go on a dominant playoff run, he's the guy, the only issues being a pretty heavy workload this year (he's fifth in the majors in total pitches) and the fact that he has never been asked to make those five or six postseason starts necessary for an ace to lead his team into the World Series.

It's the next three starters, however, that give the Dodgers the best-on-paper rotation. Greinke has arguably been better than Kershaw of late, with a 1.58 ERA over his past 12 starts. Some still question Greinke's mental toughness but I'll take talent over some nebulous characterization of a player's ability. Nolasco has been brilliant with the Dodgers with an 8-1 record and 2.07 ERA and strong peripherals and Ryu has been consistent all year long.

You have two lefties, two righties, and and four guys throw strikes and limit home runs. It's clearly the best foursome going right now. Some may knock the lack of postseason experience -- Kershaw has two playoff starts, Greinke has three -- and point to the 2012 Giants as an example. Fine, I'll point to the 2010 Giants and argue that postseason experience doesn't really matter.

2. Boston Red Sox
Jon Lester
Clay Buchholz
Jake Peavy
John Lackey

If Buchholz is healthy and effective -- let's not declare him 100 percent just yet after one 74-pitch outing, no matter how good he looked in throwing five scoreless innings to beat the Rays on Tuesday -- I love this top four. Lester is pitching his best baseball since going into the downward spiral at the end of the 2011 season, Peavy has been solid since coming over to Boston and Lackey has been consistent all season (ignore the 9-12 record; he has received poor run support).

The issue here is that unless Buchholz is close to what he was in April and May, they lack a clear ace in the Kershaw/Greinke mold, but I like the depth and all four guys have the ability to dominate on any given day and pitch deep into a game.

3. Detroit Tigers
Max Scherzer
Justin Verlander
Anibal Sanchez
Doug Fister

I'm not too concerned by Scherzer having two bad outings in his past three starts. He's still the likely Game 1 starter for the Tigers based on his body of excellent work throughout the season. The bigger issue is the inconsistency of Verlander and Fister, both of whom have been much more hittable than the previous two seasons, and how Leyland lines up the rotation: Verlander ahead of Scherzer seems unlikely but do you start Verlander ahead of Sanchez? It's not that big of a factor, especially since only the Game 1 starter is likely to start twice in a five-game series, but it does potentially affect who starts the first game of the American League Championship Series.

4. Cincinnati Reds
Mat Latos
Homer Bailey
Bronson Arroyo
Mike Leake/Tony Cingrani

This is a very underrated group putting up solid numbers in a tough park to pitch in. Dusty Baker's dilemma: If the Reds end up in the wild-card game, do you start Latos or Bailey? It could depend on who the Reds play. If it's St. Louis, it should be Latos, whose fastball/slider combo is a better matchup against the right-handed-heavy St. Louis lineup (opponents are hitting .176 against Latos' slider). If it's the Pirates, Bailey may be the better matchup. Of course, that's assuming the remaining schedule lines up for that decision to be made. If the Reds are still battling for the division title, it could just fall to whoever is due up in the rotation.

5. Atlanta Braves
Mike Minor
Kris Medlen
Julio Teheran
Paul Maholm

Minor and Teheran have been excellent all season and have the luxury of handing the ball over to what has arguably been the game's best bullpen. (Interesting postseason decision: Will Fredi Gonzalez have Craig Kimbrel get four or five outs if the situation warrants it?) Anyway, Medlen has been on a roll lately so I could see him bumped ahead of the rookie Teheran in the postseason, even if Teheran has better season numbers. Maholm is a bit of a question mark as the No. 4 starter; in four starts since missing a month, he has a 4.03 and 14/11 SO/BB ratio.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates
1. Francisco Liriano
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Gerrit Cole
4. Charlie Morton

Liriano allowed one run in six innings in Pittsburgh's 5-4 win over Texas on Tuesday, improving to 16-7 with a 2.92 ERA -- that despite a couple recent poor outings. It's that inconsistency of late that could lead to Clint Hurdle giving the ball to Burnett in a possible wild-card or Game 1 of the division series. Again, it could depend on matchups: Liriano against the Reds in a wild-card game (to counteract lefty-swinging Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce) or Burnett against the Cardinals. Cole and Morton wouldn't be expected to go deep into games, but to provide six solid innings and turn the game over to the Pirates' bullpen.

7. Oakland A's
Jarrod Parker
Bartolo Colon
Sonny Gray
A.J. Griffin/Dan Straily

Parker has probably surpassed All-Star Colon as the team's No. 1. He had a no-decision on Tuesday, running his string of starts without a loss to 19. He has allowed more than three runs in a game just once since May 6. When he gets to two strikes, that changeup becomes one of the best pitches in the game: Batters are hitting .158 off it with 68 strikeouts in 158 at-bats. Gray has to slot ahead of Griffin or Straily, both of whom are homer-prone, with his excellent performance in six starts.

8. St. Louis Cardinals
Adam Wainwright
Shelby Miller
Joe Kelly
Michael Wacha

Those are the four I would go with right now, considering Lance Lynn has allowed four-plus runs in each of his past five starts and also struggled last postseason. That's a rotation with one stellar veteran, two rookies and one second-year guy. As I said, I don't put a lot of weight on postseason experience, but you do have to worry about how much Miller and Wacha may have left in October. It's also an all-righty foursome, and in a perfect world you may want a lefty in there to help create some balance or better matchups.

What do you think?

Eric Karabell and myself discuss the Atlanta Braves: Can they win it all, are they getting enough respect and who is their team MVP? Check out Jerry Crasnick's piece on whether regular-season success will translate to the postseason.

When the Oakland A's acquired Chris Young in the offseason from the Arizona Diamondbacks, it appeared Coco Crisp would be the odd man out in the Oakland outfield, or at least see his playing substantially reduced. While it was billed as a "four guys for three positions" type of arrangement along with Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick, Young was viewed as the better defender in center field, and Cespedes and Reddick, Oakland's two best position players a year ago, weren't likely to sit too often.

It's not that Crisp was going to sit on the bench; after all, he put up a solid .259/.325/.418 line last year with 39 steals in 43 attempts. As a switch-hitter, he would help give Bob Melvin the platoon advantage no matter who would be pitching. But Crisp's crucial misplay against the Detroit Tigers in the American League Division Series cost the A's a victory, forcing a Game 5 confrontation against Justin Verlander that proved to be all Verlander, and Young's power potential would be intriguing to a club that relied on heavily on the home run in 2012.

Whatever the plan, it has worked out that Crisp has been the A's best outfielder, and their second-most valuable position player behind third baseman Josh Donaldson. With Cespedes, Reddick and Young all struggling at the plate, where would the A's be without Crisp? Not tied with the Rangers for the AL West lead. Just over a week ago, the A's looked like a team on the fall, at risk of losing its hold on the second wild card to the Indians or the Orioles or maybe the Yankees. Now they've won seven of eight and caught the Rangers in the standings for the first time since Aug. 9.

In the opener of a crucial three-game series in Oakland against the Texas Rangers, Crisp hit the go-ahead two-run homer in the fifth, hitting the left-field foul pole and upheld upon review, and the A's bullpen held on for the 4-2 victory. It was Crisp's career-high 17th home run, but maybe his power shouldn't be that big a surprise: He hit .281/.349/.511 in the second half last year with eight home runs. He has been hitting like this since last July.

Crisp was just one of Monday's surprise heroes -- players who usually fly under the radar but provide the contributions that push teams into the playoffs. Here are a few others:

Brian Roberts, Orioles: After playing just 115 games combined over the past three seasons, who thought Roberts would be playing in 2013, let alone contributing? But there he was on Monday, hitting leadoff and hitting a two-run double to give the Orioles a 3-0 lead in the third inning against the Indians, on way to a 7-2 victory. He's hitting .265/.341/.350 in the second half while playing in 37 of Baltimore's 40 games. He hasn't been great, but he's getting on base and provided stability at second base.

David Huff, Yankees: A former supplemental first-round pick of the Indians, Huff never did much with Cleveland and the Yankees picked him up on waivers in late May and sent him to the minors. As a former starter, he has contributed two big long relief performances in the past two weeks. On Aug. 21, he pitched five scoreless innings of relief in a 4-2 victory over the Blue Jays. On Monday, he replaced Phil Hughes in the second innings after a nearly two-hour rain delay and pitched 5 2/3 innings and watched as the Yankees put up eight runs in the fourth inning to beat the White Sox.

Jordan Schafer, Braves: The one-time top prospect has rescued his career with a strong season as Atlanta's fourth outfielder. With Jason Heyward on the disabled list, Schafer is playing right field and went 4-for-5 on Monday, raising his season line to .275/.352/.389. Considering B.J. Upton's season-long struggles, if Heyward returns by the end of the regular season, it will be interesting to see if Schafer gets postseason starts in center field (at least against right-handed pitching).

Charlie Morton, Pirates: With seven strong innings in a 5-2 win over the Brewers, Morton is now 7-3 with a 3.00 ERA, and the Pirates reclaimed sole possession of first place. As Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Information points out, the curveball has been a huge weapon for Morton, especially with two strikes, when he's limiting batters to a .392 OPS compared to .522 in 2011-2012. Opponents are hitting just .117 off Morton's two-strike curveballs. There are some cloudy numbers in Morton's results -- his strikeout rate isn't great and he leads the NL with 14 hit batters in just 90 innings -- but he's allowed two runs or fewer in six straight starts and helped rescue a Pirates rotation that has battled injuries.

Andre Ethier, Dodgers: OK, he's a pretty big name and paid like a pretty big star. The emergence of Yasiel Puig back in June led to calls for the Dodgers to trade Ethier; instead, Matt Kemp hasn't been able to stay on the field and Ethier has had to start 62 games in center field -- where he had started just once before in his major league career. He hasn't killed them defensively -- he's at -4 Defensive Runs Saved -- and in the second half he's hitting .302/.399/.532, including two doubles and a home run on Monday in a 10-8 win over the Rockies.

It's not often that plans in March go smoothly all season. The A's outfield depth has paid off, maybe as Billy Beane intended, but sometimes alternate plans are needed -- like Ethier playing center field. I'm pretty sure that wasn't in Don Mattingly's playbook back in spring training. But playoff teams have stars and unsung heroes.

One message that has been reinforced this season, maybe stronger than ever: It's time to dispose of the whole closer myth. Of course, managers still construct their bullpens around their closer, and their game strategy in the late innings around getting to the closer. And some managers stubbornly stick with their closer, even when he's struggling.

Managers anoint their closers as if they are offering divine inspiration to the position. But the truth is: No praying is needed. Most teams do just fine in the ninth inning, in part because closers are actually fairly easy to find.

For example, of the 10 teams currently holding a playoff position, four have changed their closers from Opening Day: the Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals and Dodgers. Include the Pirates, using Mark Melancon as their closer right now with Jason Grilli, and half the likely playoff teams have changed closers at some point.

The Red Sox are currently benefiting from the great work of Koji Uehara, the 38-year-old Japanese veteran who is proving to be one of the season's key free agent signings, taking over as Boston's closer after the injuries to Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey. Uehara has a 1.17 ERA, has allowed a .137 batting average and given up just nine walks in 61 1/3 innings -- among pitchers with at least 30 innings, he has the lowest OPS allowed, lower even than Craig Kimbrel.

Speaking of which: Kimbrel has been terrific once again, with an ERA of 0.95 and 43 saves in 46 save situations. As great as he has been, however, his usage points to how dominant closers don't really have that much of an impact over their peers. Consider the chart below.

Since closers are basically just asked to protect ninth-inning leads (or enter in the ninth at home if the game is tied), I like to look at a team's record when leading while heading into the ninth inning. As great as Kimbrel has been, the Braves have still lost three such games, which puts them in the middle of the pack in the majors.



The Braves lead the majors in bullpen ERA and have just four losses when leading after seven innings. As good as that 62-4 record is, six teams -- including the Red Sox -- have a better winning percentage (although we're talking small increments here of percentage points). The point: We tend to evaluate closers like we evaluate starting pitchers: ERA, strikeout rates and the such. But if their job is to enter in the ninth inning to protect a lead, isn't that the primary thing to evaluate them on?

And that's why closers are easy to find. Most leads aren't one-run leads. Closers rarely enter with runners on base -- in fact, Baseball Info Solutions defines a "tough save" as one in which the pitcher enters with the tying run on base. As of a couple days ago, only four closers had more than one tough save -- Ernesto Frieri with three, and Kenley Jansen, Edward Mujica and Bobby Parnell with two.

Look at the chart again and focus on the difference in losses in the eighth and ninth innings. The Reds have three losses when leading after eight but eight when leading after seven. What if Aroldis Chapman had been used a few times in the eighth? The Royals are a solid 58-2 when leading after eight but have four additional losses in the eighth inning, so while they have the second-best bullpen ERA in the majors, their record in the eighth and ninth innings isn't anything special.

Back to that stubborn comment: That was a reference to Buck Showalter sticking with Jim Johnson -- and the Orioles having paid the price with nine losses when leading after eight innings. But they shouldn't have stuck with him. After all, closers aren't that hard to find.

Just ask the Red Sox.