ESPN MLB

Another fun and interesting chat session included some heated debates on Mike Trout's defense, Manny Machado's WAR versus Miguel Cabrera's, whether the Rangers are worse than the four best teams in the AL East, the hype over Yasiel Puig, Jason Heyward versus Freddie Freeman, Jose Iglesias versus Andrelton Simmons and when the Cubs will make it back to the playoffs. Here's the complete chat wrap.

Chicago Cubs prospect Javier Baez -- the Cubs' top prospect on No. 31 on Keith Law's top 100 -- showed on Monday night why his upside is high, as he hit four home runs, becoming just the second player in Florida State League history to do so. (Ryan Harvey, a former Cubs prospect, was the other player, doing so in 2011.)

Before the season, Keith mentioned Baez's quick bat -- maybe the best bat speed of anyone in the minors -- and his 30-homer potential. The question was whether Baez could keep the swing under control. On Monday night, he obviously did that.

"His swing seemed a lot more under control tonight," Daytona manager Dave Keller told MiLB.com. "Sometimes he gets too aggressive. (Hitting coach) Mariano (Duncan) has spent a lot of time with him talking about keeping his balance and not swinging so hard that he can't stay on the ball. He already has tremendous bat speed and he can hit the ball a long way. After that second home run, I was telling Mariano that it was the best swing I have seen him take. It was free and relaxed and he laced that ball. It was the best swing he's taken on a pitch all year."

The big night lifted Baez's season line to .291/.339/.570 with 13 home runs in 230 at-bats. His strikeout and walk rates still need some work -- 60 strikeouts against just 11 walks -- but for a 20-year-old in a league where pitchers often dominate, the slugging is impressive.

Baez was the ninth pick in the 2011 draft -- Jose Fernandez, now with the Marlins, was still on the board -- but the Cubs have to be happy with how the pick is working out so far. With 2012 first-round outfielder Albert Almora off to a good start in the Midwest League (.423 in 17 games after starting late recovering from a broken hamate bone in his left hand). Here's a recent video feature on Almora.

Almora's teammate on Kane County is 20-year-old first basemann Dan Vogelbach, who is built a bit like Prince Fielder but also possesses Fielder's raw power. He's hitting .273 with 11 home runs after hitting 17 in 61 games in the low minors in 2011. Vogelbach was the club's second-round pick after Baez in 2011.

With Anthony Rizzo looking good for the big league, Cubs fans can dream of some help on the way. Now if only Starlin Castro can get straightened out ...

We're about a month out from the All-Star Game at Citi Field in New York, so it's a good time to take stock of how the All-Star rosters might be shaping up -- after all, the debate of who goes to the game is usually much more interesting than the game itself.

The most heated discussion in the National League might be at starting pitcher. New York Mets fans will undoubtedly be vociferous about hometown hero Matt Harvey deserving the start, but, as Bill Baer outlined here a couple days ago, the Cy Young race is crowded, which means the All-Star assignment is a crowded field. With apologies to Harvey and rookies Shelby Miller and Patrick Corbin, I think the starting pitcher should have a little longer track record than a couple good months. Harvey does have 23 career starts with a 2.35 ERA going back to his 2012 call-up, although we've seen some dents of late with 31 hits allowed in 26 innings over his past four starts.

With further apologies to Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright, right now I'd give the nod to Nationals right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, who pitched seven scoreless innings against the Twins on Sunday to improve to 9-3 with a 2.00 ERA. Some remain skeptical of Zimmermann's success because his strikeout rate -- 5.8 per nine innings -- doesn't match the elite starters in the league. But Zimmermann is a master of movement, location, command and deception. He doesn't second-guess his stuff; his fastball has averaged 93.7 mph, and the great sinking and cutting action he gets on it induces a lot of ground balls.

As ESPN Stats & Information's Mark Simon points out, Zimmermann limits hits not by generating strikeouts but by generating weak contact. His line-drive rate allowed ranks eighth among qualified starters, and batters have hit just .207 off that fastball, even though they often know it's coming.

He's also the master of efficiency, ranking third in the NL in innings even though he's topped 100 pitches just five times this season -- his 111 on Sunday was his season high. You hate to compare anybody to Greg Maddux, but Zimmermann is the most Maddux-like in the game today: He's walked just 13 batters in 13 starts and has allowed more than two runs just twice in those starts. He's consistent and very, very good. Don't be surprised if he's on the mound at Citi Field next month.

Here's how the rest of the roster is looking right now. All-Star rosters consist of 34 players, with the eight position starters voted in by the fans, eight backups chosen by the players and the first eight pitchers (five starters, three relievers) also chosen by player balloting. For the purpose of this run-through, I'll use the fan starters but ignore player voting, which is usually the part that messes things up the most (like voting in Bryan LaHair last year at first base because he had 70 hot plate appearances in April). My own personal philosophy is to factor in some combination of 2013 stats with previous track record; you need to weigh both.

Catcher
Fans: 1. Buster Posey; 2. Yadier Molina; 3. John Buck

Should start: Molina.
Automatic: Posey.

If you want to argue that Posey should start, I'm not going to put up a strong debate. They're close in hitting value, although they've done it in different ways, with Molina relying on a high batting average and Posey hitting more home runs and drawing more walks. But Molina's masterful handling of the St. Louis pitching staff has to be recognized.

First base
Fans: 1. Joey Votto; 2. Paul Goldschmidt; 3. Brandon Belt.

Should start: Votto.
Automatic: Goldschmidt.

Like the debate at catcher, this can swing either way. Goldschmidt has the huge edge in RBIs -- 58 to 29 -- and he has hit .431 with runners in scoring position (Votto has hit .333), so if you want to say Goldschmidt deserves the start, I'm not going to fight. But if the statistical record is close, I like to go with the guy with the longer track record, and that's Votto.

Don't fret, Diamondbacks fans, as Goldschmidt would get my starting nod at the designated hitter slot (which is now used in NL parks as well).

Second base
Fans: 1. Brandon Phillips; 2. Marco Scutaro; 3. Matt Carpenter.

Should start: Phillips.
Automatic: Carpenter.

Carpenter leads Phillips in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), but this is another track-record vote. But Carpenter has played so well -- including with the glove after playing little second base before this season -- that he should garner an automatic bid.

Third base
Fans: 1. Pablo Sandoval; 2. David Wright; 3. David Freese.

Should start: Wright.
Automatic: None.

Wright should be the obvious starter in another weird season at third base in the NL. Sandoval's numbers are mediocre, as are 2012 RBI champ Chase Headley's. Freese and Ryan Zimmerman have missed time with injuries, and Martin Prado hasn't hit. Todd Frazier is actually second in WAR, and he's hitting .250 with six home runs. If Sandoval holds on to his lead in the vote, it will probably be just him and Wright on the squad.

Shortstop
Fans: 1. Troy Tulowitzki; 2. Brandon Crawford; 3. Jean Segura.

Should be: Tulowitzki.
Automatic: Segura, Everth Cabrera.

Segura is a rookie, but he's been so good that he earns the backup slot. Cabrera is also a deserving All-Star, hitting .298 with a .374 OBP, leading the NL with 29 steals and playing solid defense. He's among NL leaders in WAR at any position. He might be the only Padres All-Star, but he's not a token rep.

Outfield
Fans: 1. Justin Upton 2. Bryce Harper 3. Carlos Beltran 4. Ryan Braun 5. Shin-Soo Choo 6. Hunter Pence

Should be: Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Braun.
Automatic: Carlos Gomez.

Upton and Harper lead the fan voting due to their hot starts, but neither is a deserving starter at this time. Harper is on the DL with a knee injury, and Upton is hitting .206 with just two home runs in 36 games since April 28. I would go with Gonzalez, McCutchen and Braun as my starters -- three proven stars who rank second, seventh and eighth among NL outfielders in FanGraphs WAR. Gomez is the one must-be-there outfielder with his power/speed/defense combo giving him the top WAR among NL position players via both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.

Considering my three starters are different from the fan starters, and combined with the inclusion of Gomez, that's seven outfielders.

Starting pitchers
Starter: Zimmermann.
Automatics: Kershaw, Harvey, Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Patrick Corbin, Mike Minor, Cliff Lee.

Considering there are currently 17 starters in the NL with sub-3.00 ERAs, somebody is going to get the shaft. But the above guys have combined their low ERAs with low batting averages allowed and excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios.

Relief pitchers
Automatics: Jason Grilli, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman.

The rules state the players' vote will include the top three relievers. I'd go with the above three, and I'm guessing they'll win the player vote as well.

* * * *

Where does that leave us? With fan starters added to my should-be starters and other automatic selections, we're at 29 players.

We're going to need at least two more pitchers, since rosters usually include at least 13 pitchers; we also need reps from the Marlins and Cubs. But the first guy I want to add is Domonic Brown, who might be riding a hot streak, but what a streak. He leads the NL in home runs and ranks fourth in RBIs. Of the top six leaders in slugging percentage, he's the only one who doesn't get to play his home games in a hitter's paradise in Colorado, Milwaukee or Arizona.

We better do the Marlins and Cubs reps. With Giancarlo Stanton injured -- and as much as I would like to try, I couldn't really justify his inclusion since he hasn't played much -- the Marlins lack a good candidate. Their only two players with a 1.0 or greater WAR on Baseball-Reference.com are rookie outfielder Marcell Ozuna and starter Ricky Nolasco. We'll give the nod to Nolasco, although you could probably make a case for rookie Jose Fernandez being the team's best starter. For the Cubs, it's either Travis Wood or Jeff Samardzija. Wood is 5-4 with a 2.65 ERA while Samardzija is 3-7, 3.18 ERA with more strikeouts and a better K/BB ratio. Samardzija is my choice -- he was very good last season -- but if you want Wood, that's fine.

That leaves two spots to fill. Based on consistency of WAR across both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, the top guys are probably Pirates catcher Russell Martin and Pence. Works for me -- especially Martin -- who also earns raves for the leadership he's brought to Pittsburgh. Relievers Edward Mujica and Sergio Romo have cases but get squeezed out. I'd love to add defensive whiz Andrelton Simmons, but it's tough finding room for four shortstops.

So, as of now, my 34-man roster would look like this:

C Buster Posey, Giants*
C Yadier Molina, Cardinals
C Russell Martin, Pirates
1B Joey Votto, Reds*
1B Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
2B Brandon Phillips, Reds*
2B Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
3B Pablo Sandoval, Giants*
3B David Wright, Mets
SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
SS Jean Segura, Brewers
SS Everth Cabrera, Padres
OF Justin Upton, Braves*
OF Bryce Harper, Nationals*
OF Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
OF Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
OF Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
OF Ryan Braun, Brewers
OF Carlos Gomez, Brewers
OF Domonic Brown, Phillies
OF Hunter Pence, Giants

SP Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals*
SP Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
SP Matt Harvey, Mets
SP Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
SP Shelby Miller, Cardinals
SP Mike Minor, Braves
SP Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks
SP Cliff Lee, Phillies
SP Jeff Samardzija, Cubs
SP Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
RP Jason Grilli, Pirates
RP Craig Kimbrel, Braves
RP Aroldis Chapman, Reds

Disagree? Debate below and then check back tomorrow for the American League.

In Tuesday's Franchise Player Draft, the only first baseman selected in the first round was Joey Votto, selected 10th overall. That makes sense, as first base isn't a premium position and the position has weakened the past couple of years with the declines of Albert Pujols and Mark Teixeira, the move of Miguel Cabrera to third base, and the failure of prospects like Eric Hosmer and Justin Smoak to develop into stars.

My pal Eric Karabell says he would wait on drafting a first baseman in building a franchise -- that you can always find one. But I think you can make a good case that Votto won't be the only first baseman who could end up as one of baseball's top 30 players over the next five seasons. I see five good candidates:

Chris Davis, Orioles
2013 numbers: .355/.437/.744, 20 HR, 52 RBI, 29 BB, 55 SO
Age: 27

He's having a better offensive season than Miguel Cabrera, leading the majors in home runs, slugging, OPS, adjusted OPS and wOBA. His walk rate is up and his strikeouts are down, a strong indicator this could be more than just a two-month hot streak. He's tied for seventh in Baseball-Reference WAR among positions players and tied for second in FanGraphs WAR.

Prince Fielder, Tigers
2013 numbers: .283/.395/.519, 12 HR, 48 RBI, 35 BB, 48 SO
Age: 29

Old reliable. He never misses a game, gets on base (he leads the AL in walks) and has power. He's not going to help you in the field or on the bases, but you can plug him in for 160 games and know what you're going to get. In looking at a five-year window, his age isn't a huge concern to me considering his durability track record.

Freddie Freeman, Braves
2013 numbers: .311/.371/.480, 6 HR, 40 RBI, 16 BB, 40 SO
Age: 23

Freeman missed two weeks in April with a strained oblique but has driven in 40 runs in 45 games although his power totals don't match the others here. With him, the issues are whether you're buying the .311 average after he hit .259 a year ago, and how much you project him to improve considering he's still just 23 although already in his third major league season.

Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
2013 numbers: .335/.417/.599, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 31 BB, 53 SO
Age: 25

With Goldschmidt, throw in Gold Glove-caliber defense and the ability to swipe some bases (6 for 7 after stealing 18 last season). The big plus for Goldschmidt is that after a big platoon split in 2012, he's crushing right-handers as well this year -- .347 with eight home runs. He's also slugging .701 on the road. His wRC+ stat -- which adjusts his overall batting line for home park -- has him third-best in the majors, behind only Davis and Cabrera. He's a legit MVP candidate and just entering his prime seasons.

Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
2013 numbers: .257/.325/.491, 10 HR, 36 RBI, 19 BB, 46 SO
Age: 23

There's no denying the power potential, although he's been a streaky hitter so far, hitting eight homers in April but just one over his past 24 games. However, he does have eight doubles over that span. With 17 doubles on the season, you can see him converting some of those two-baggers into home runs as he gets more experience.

Who do you like? If I'm looking at a five-year window, I go:

1. Goldschmidt. Best all-around player of the five.

2. Davis. I'm buying the hot start and we're talking about his age 27-31 years, which should be relatively safe.

3. Fielder. Age is a little bit of an issue but the bat isn't.

4. Freeman. If he can consolidate hitting for average AND hitting for power, he'll be terrific.

5. Rizzo. More upside than Freeman with his 40-homer potential but needs more consistency.

Haven't done one of these all week, so some quick thoughts on Thursday's games ...

• I was watching the Detroit Tigers-Pittsburgh Pirates last night but on my laptop I had on the Kansas City Royals-St. Louis Cardinals game to check out Michael Wacha's debut for St. Louis. If you're not familiar with Wacha, he was the 19th pick in last year's draft out of Texas A&M and I'm left asking: There were 18 guys better than him? (The pick, by the way, came via the Los Angeles Angels in the Albert Pujols signing.) After a terrific spring training he posted a 2.05 ERA in nine Triple-A starts and became the seventh rookie pitcher to appear for the Cardinals this year. He thoroughly dominated the Royals, pitching four no-hit innings and finishing with this line: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 SO. He failed to get the win when the Royals rallied for three runs in the ninth (after a long rain delay that had the Cardinals asking for an eight-inning victory).
  
  After pitching four days in a row, Cardinals closer Edward Mujica had a day off, as did rookie setup guy Trevor Rosenthal, leaving Mitchell Boggs to get burned yet again.As for Wacha, he threw 58 fastballs out of his 93 pitches, averaging 93.3 mph and touching 96-97. He throws up in the zone, especially to left-handers, and on this night did a good job of painting the outside corner against right-handers. He also gets some late movement, almost like a cutter, so while he didn't have a high K rate in the minors, he apparently induced a lot of weak contact, which was the case on Thursday. His out pitch is a changeup on which he recorded four of his six strikeouts. The pitch dives away from lefties and down and in to righties. He also has a curveball but only threw three against the Royals. OK, the Royals have been in a huge offensive slump so we should factor that in, but this kid looked terrific. Very poised and confident (it helps when you retire the first 13 hitters). I get a feeling he may not be heading back to the minors.
• You know, Freddy Garcia has had a hell of a career. He threw eight shutout innings for the Baltimore Orioles in a 2-0 win over the Washington Nationals and I love that Buck Showalter left him in to throw 113 pitches and save the bullpen. I'm skeptical Garcia can succeed all season -- he has just 15 strikeouts in 35.1 innings -- but he does throw strikes (six walks in starts) and won't beat himself. Garcia is now 158-103 in his career and not many pitchers win 158 games. He was the ace of two Seattle Mariners teams that reached the postseason and was a member of that stellar 2005 Chicago White Sox rotation that won a World Series. He battled back from injuries to turn into a junkballer supreme; who knows, maybe he learned a few lessons from Jamie Moyer back in the day. Good story and I hope he continues to pitch well.
• The Cleveland Indians are in the midst of a tough portion of their schedule and had dropped six of seven to the Tigers, the Boston Red Sox and the Cincinnati Reds before rallying to beat the Reds the past two nights in Cleveland. They scored all seven runs in the fourth inning to beat Cincy 7-1 on Thursday behind Scott Kazmir. Yan Gomes went 3-for-4 and is hitting .319/.333/.638 as he continues to push himself into the lineup. Don't be surprised to see Carlos Santana getting more days off from catching and more time at first base and DH. It doesn't get any easier for the Indians as their next five series are against the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Tigers, Texas Rangers and Nationals.
• The Colorado Rockies just lost two to the Houston Astros at home (and three of four in this four-game matchup), which has to hurt. Todd Helton is down to .219/.287/.344 and you wonder how much longer Walt Weiss can afford to keep him in the lineup.
• Carl Crawford did this but the Angels beat the Dodgers 3-2 behind the red-hot Jason Vargas. More bad news for the Dodgers: Matt Kemp hit the DL. Or maybe it's good news. He needs to get healthy.
• Travis Wood hit a grand slam for the Chicago Cubs. That's 19 RBIs for Cubs pitchers in May -- the most by a pitching staff since the 1940 Tigers had 20 in August. In fact, Cubs pitchers are tied for 19th in the majors in RBIs in May. Gotta love baseball.
• This was pretty cool.

Yesterday, we looked at the last time each American League club drafted a player who became an All-Star -- whether for the franchise or another. The Cleveland Indians had the longest drought: CC Sabathia was the last All-Star they drafted and he was selected way back in 1998. Can any National League team match that stretch of futility?

Arizona Diamondbacks: Ryan Cook and Wade Miley (2008)
To show the unpredictability of baseball drafts, the D-backs' first-round pick that year was Daniel Schlereth. Miley was a supplemental first-round pick, going 43rd overall, but Cook was selected in the 27th round from USC after struggling with his control during his college years. He went to the A's in the Trevor Cahill trade.

Atlanta Braves: Craig Kimbrel (2008)
A third-round pick out an Alabama junior college, Kimbrel was the fourth pitcher the Braves drafted in 2008. So is it good fortune or skilled scouting that landed him? A little of both, I suspect.

Miami Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton (2007)
With the pick right before the Marlins selected Stanton in the second round, the Mariners selected another high school outfielder named Denny Almonte. Who is not to be confused with Little League hero/pariah Danny Almonte.

New York Mets: Scott Kazmir (2002)
They really shouldn't have let Mr. Met run their drafts all those years. OK, Matt Harvey is a good bet to end this drought this year, which would make him the first All-Star the Mets drafted to make an All-Star team with the Mets since David Wright in 2001. Before Wright, however, you go all the back to Bobby Jones, an All-Star in 1997 and drafted in 1991.

Philadelphia Phillies: Michael Bourn (2003)
Part of the Brad Lidge trade, the Phillies haven't produced a homegrown draft choice All-Star since Cole Hamels in 2002.

Washington Nationals: Bryce Harper (2010)
The 2009 Nationals finished three wins worse than the Pirates to get the top pick. The Pirates went 6-4 over their final 10 games; don't worry, Pirates fans I'm not setting you up -- the Nationals actually won their final seven.

Chicago Cubs: Geovany Soto (2001)
An 11th-round pick out of Puerto Rico, the Cubs are now the Cubs with good reason. In 2002, they had four of the first 38 picks, selected four pitchers, and none reached the majors. Their first-round picks from 2003 to 2010 were Ryan Harvey, Mark Pawelek, Tyler Colvin, Josh Donaldson (traded to Oakland in the Rich Harden trade), Josh Vitters (ahead of Matt Wieters), Ryan Flaherty, Andrew Cashner (who at least turned into Anthony Rizzo), Brett Jackson and Hayden Simpson.

Cincinnati Reds: Jay Bruce (2005)
Here's a fun one: The last starting pitcher the Reds drafted who made an All-Star Game with the Reds: Jack Armstrong, drafted in 1987, an All-Star starter in 1990 ... and out of the rotation by the end of the season.

Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun (2005)
You're going to see this 2005 draft pop up a couple more times. Bruce was the 12th pick, Braun the fifth pick and the next guy was the 11th pick.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Andrew McCutchen (2005)
McCutchen is already fourth highest for most career Wins Above Replacement by a Pirates' first-round pick, behind some guy named Bonds, Jason Kendall and Richie Hebner. And just ahead of Bryan Bullington.

St. Louis Cardinals: Lance Lynn (2008)
Lynn is pitching even better than last season, when he made the All-Star team with an 11-win first half. A good selection for 39th overall, but the 2009 draft is shaping up even better for the Cards: Shelby Miller, Matt Carpenter, Trevor Rosenthal and Matt Adams. Miller was a first-rounder, but the other three went in rounds 13, 21 and 23. Jeff Luhnow, now the Astros' GM, was the scouting director those years.

Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki (2005)
If you had to re-do that 2005 draft, who goes first overall? Justin Upton again? Braun? McCutchen? Or Tulo?

Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (2006)
The seventh pick in the draft, the five pitchers selected ahead of Kershaw have combined for 4.9 WAR. Did we mention that the draft is an inexact science?

San Diego Padres: David Freese (2006)
This is how you build a consistent winner: The Cards acquired Freese for an aging Jim Edmonds. The last player to make an All-Star team with the Padres after getting drafted by them was Jake Peavy -- selected back in 1999. The last position player ... Tony Gwynn! Drafted in 1981. In fact, the Padres have drafted just four position players who made an All-Star team as Padres: Gwynn, Ozzie Smith, Dave Winfield and, of course, Johnny Grubb.

San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey (2008)
Giants' first-round picks, 2006-2008: Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey. That'll work.

We talked some baseball. We talked Paul Goldschmidt versus Joey Votto. The record paces of Miguel Cabrera and Manny Machado. What's wrong with the B.J. Upton and Matt Kemp and what the Braves and Dodgers should do. We talked about the defense of Mike Trout and Shin-Soo Choo, disappointing prospects, Pete Kozma, Joe Mauer's RBI production, Oscar Taveras and Jurickson Profar, and much more! Click here for the complete chat wrap.

One reader called it "epic." I don't know about that, but it was a two-and-a-half hour marathon chat session

Watching Felix Hernandez the other night prompted me to look up the pitchers with the highest career Wins Above Replacement who never started a postseason game. Hernandez's career WAR is 36.3 and I had no idea if he would top the list or even be near the top, but it seems like most good pitchers eventually find themselves in a playoff game.

So, since 1969 and the divisional era, here are the pitchers who accumulated the most WAR but never started a playoff game:

1. Ferguson Jenkins (67.7 WAR, 16th overall)

His career WAR is actually higher, but we're only counting WAR earned from 1969 and beyond. Anyway, Jenkins played for the Cubs, Rangers and Red Sox and had 284 career wins. Those late 1960s/early 1970s Cubs teams have four Hall of Famers -- Jenkins, Ernie Banks, Billy Williams and Ron Santo -- and had some other good players (Bill Hands, Ken Holtzman, Milt Pappas) but never reached the postseason.

2. Mariano Rivera (54.9 WAR, 30th overall)

Well, he hasn't started a postseason game ...

3. Mark Langston (50.2 WAR, 41st overall)

Very underrated pitcher in the '80s and '90s, spending most of his career with the bad Mariners and mediocre Angels. From 1986 to 1993 he averaged 247 innings per season. Did pitch in relief for the Padres in the 1998 postseason.

4. Wilbur Wood (45.9 WAR, 47th overall)

Had 11.7 and 10.7 WAR in in 1971 and 1972 when he pitched 334 and then 376 innings for the White Sox.

5. Goose Gossage (41.9 WAR, 57th overall)

See Rivera. Pitched in four postseasons, including three World Series.

6. Danny Darwin (40.6 WAR, 48th overall)

Won 171 games and an ERA title, but never pitched in the postseason although he played for eight different franchises. He was on the '86 Astros, who made the playoffs, and went 5-2, 2.32 ERA, after they acquired him from Milwaukee, but was injured and missed the playoffs. Also pitched for the '97 Giants, who made the playoffs, but didn't appear in the postseason.

7. Charlie Hough (39.3 WAR, 61st overall)

Pitched in relief for the Dodgers in three World Series, but spent the bulk of his rotation days with the playoff-less Rangers.

8. Felix Hernandez (36.3 WAR, 71st overall)

And now we get to Hernandez, the active leader among starting pitchers in this dubious category. Is he destined to become the Fergie Jenkins of his generation?

I made a quick point about Cubs starter Travis Wood in an earlier post. As Jedi Johnson points out on the View From the Bleachers blog, Wood has eight quality starts in eight chances this year and while he's topped 100 pitches just twice, he's still averaging over six innings per start.

Look, Wood isn't going to sustain a 2.03 ERA. His batting average allowed is .169 and his average on balls in play is .189, which is historically unsustainable. The question: How much will he regress? I heard Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette discussing Wood on MLB Network Radio this morning and Mike made a great point on how Wood survives even though he throws few offspeed pitches. Indeed, according to ESPN Stats & Info date, of the 766 pitches Wood has thrown this year, 295 have been fastballs and 275 cut fastballs -- 74 percent of his total pitches. Wood has a changeup that he thrown about four times per game and a slider he throws a little more frequently, neither of which is considered more than an average pitch. He's basically a fastball/cutter guy.

Mike and Jim wondered if he could succeed with this repertoire (and thought he could). Conventional wisdom certainly suggests this will be difficult, that starters need to mix in some sort of effective offspeed weapon. I thought: Mariano Rivera has made a pretty nice living throwing almost one pitch exclusively. No, I'm not comparing Wood to Rivera, but why can't Wood make this work? Why can't he be some lesser version of Rivera, just for six or seven innings at a time instead of one?

Reds rookie Tony Cingrani, off to a 2-0, 2.89 ERA in five starts, with 37 strikeouts and seven walks in 28 innings, is another lefty relying on fastballs. He's thrown 493 pitches -- and 412 fastballs (84 percent). He doesn't throw a cutter, but merely changes speeds and has more velocity than Wood. Like Wood, there is some deception in the delivery and he's a flyball pitcher (which leads to a lower BABIP).

I don't know how good Wood is, and he's never going to be a workhorse with his slight stature. But I think there's a good chance he's developing into a solid mid-rotation starter, one who will beat the 4.17 ERA he posted in 2012.

Quick reactions from Monday's games ...

• If you've seen the scary video of Bryce Harper crashing face-first into the wall at Dodger Stadium, you know the end result could have been much worse than a bloodied face. Aside from Harper needing to learn what "warning track" means, the reaction from some of the Nationals is frustrating. "That's all you can ask for as a pitcher, a guy going 110 percent," said winning pitcher Jordan Zimmermann. No, no, no. Absolutely wrong. There's rarely a good time to go crashing into a wall, especially when the score is 6-0. There is no way making that catch -- and getting ONE OUT -- is worth the risk of the injury. Sometimes you have to play this game at 99 or 95 percent. Manager Davey Johnson said, "I don't want to change him." Fine. I get it. The hustle, the energy, that's part of what drives Harper to excel. But you have to be smart. I'm pretty sure Davey's behind-the-scenes talks with Harper will be a little different than his public posturing.
  
  

  SportsNation: Harper Injured

  Bryce Harper ran into a wall while trying to make a play in Monday night's Dodgers game. Should Harper dial it back a bit?
  • Cast your votes!

  The one guy who got it right was Ryan Zimmerman: "I would rather him not go all-out into the wall. Some people look at it as a bad thing. If you play that hard every day, there is something to be said about that. He's going to play a long time and you have to learn to take care of your body. As he grows, he'll learn what to do and what not to do." Zimmerman is speaking from experience, as a player who has battled injuries in his career. I love Harper's all-out play; I don't love him running into walls.
• Josh Beckett left after three innings after tweaking his groin, but gave up four runs before then anyway and fell to 0-5 with a 5.19 ERA. The Dodgers can use injuries as an excuse for their 15-22 record, but Beckett has been awful, Matt Kemp has been bad, Andre Ethier is slugging under .400, their third basemen are hitting a combined .185 with a .526 OPS and closer Brandon League has a 6.28 ERA.
• Great day for Aaron Hicks, whom the Twins have resisted sending down to the minors despite his slow start. He homered twice off Hector Santiago of the White Sox in a 10-3 victory and then robbed Adam Dunn of a home run. Love the big smile from Hicks as he gets up from the ground. Let's hope this gets his season going in the right direction.
• The Mets signed Rick Ankiel. He had been released by the Astros because he's struck out in over half his plate appearances. He started in center field. In a related note, the Mets lost 6-3 to the Cardinals.
• Travis Wood pitched seven scoreless, two-hit innings against the Rockies and has quietly put up a 2.03 ERA for the Cubs. Wood is a fly ball pitcher -- he had 12 fly ball outs on Monday, seven on the ground -- and when the ball stays in the park, he can be very effective. He's had a lot of effective outings of late. In his past 17 starts dating back to last August, he has a 2.65 ERA, .189 average and .263 OBP allowed and just eight home runs. He's a guy the advanced metrics don't love because his strikeout rate isn't high, but he could be developing into a nice 1-2 combo with Jeff Samardzija.
• The Rockies, meanwhile, are starting to struggle with the bats on the road. I've touched on this earlier this season, that Colorado's problems in the past has been more about the hitters doing bad on the road than the pitchers doing bad at home. The Rockies started out fine on the road, but the bats have gone dry, getting three hits in two games against St. Louis over the weekend and now getting three-hit by the Cubs.
• Joe Blanton is a guy the advanced metrics overrate, because he walks so few batters his strikeout/walk ratio is terrific. Last night, for example, he had seven strikeouts and no walks. But he gave up 12 hits and seven runs in 4.2 innings in an 11-4 loss to the Royals. Maybe there was some bad luck: "I felt like I threw the ball good tonight and my stuff was good," Blanton said. "When they made contact they found holes, broken-bat balls fell in for singles and balls bounced their way down the lines. It was one of those weird games. There were a couple of innings where I was one pitch away from it." Still. He's now 0-7 with a 6.46 ERA, and it's not that big of a surprise he's been this bad. He wasn't good last season in the National League, and there was no reason to expect him to come over to the AL, face deeper lineups, and suddenly get his ERA closer to 4.00. He's not good.

In April, Jose Bautista had turned into a three true outcomes type of player: home run, walk or strikeout. He hit seven home runs and had a slugging percentage over .500, but was hitting just .200.

Was he just finding his stroke as he returned from last year's injury problems? Or was he no longer the MVP-caliber hitter of 2010 and 2011, when he hit 54 and 43 home runs, drew walks, and hit .260 and then .302?

He hit his first two home runs of May on Sunday in a 12-4 pasting of the Red Sox to raise his overall batting to .246/.360/.544 -- respectable, if not quite 2011-level Bautista. And the Blue Jays need 2011-level Bautista if they have any hope of recovering from their awful start.

I'm not quite sure he's there yet. While Bautista can crush any fastball -- he's hitting .333 with six home runs in 51 at-bats ending with a fastball this season -- it was his production against "soft" stuff that allowed him to hit above .300 in 2011. Check out these two charts on his batting average against soft stuff in 2011, and then the past two seasons:



As you can see, that's a lot of red (hot) in 2011 and a lot of blue (cold) since. This year, he's 7-for-51 (.137) with three home runs against soft stuff. He split his home runs on Sunday -- one came off a first-pitch Ryan Dempster fastball, the other off an 0-1 83 mph slider from Clayton Mortensen. Bautista is a dead pull hitter -- only one home run to center and one to right-center over the past two seasons -- which can leave him vulnerable to breaking stuff on the outside part of the plate.

I haven't seen enough evidence that he's going to punish those pitches like he did a couple years ago, so I would guess he'll be prone to ups and downs throughout the season. He's still a huge threat at the plate, but not the MVP bat of 2011.

REST OF THE WEEKEND

Three stars
1. Shelby Miller, Cardinals. One hit. Twenty-seven down. In a 3-0 win over the Rockies on Friday, the St. Louis rookie became the fifth pitcher since 1961 to allow the first batter to reach base and then retire 27 in a row, joining John Lackey (2006 Angels), Jerry Reuss (1982 Dodgers), Jim Bibby (1981 Pirates) and Woodie Fryman (1966 Pirates). Miller had the Rockies guessing wrong -- or merely looking -- all night long, as he got 30 called strikes, the second-most by a starter this season. Eight of those closed out Miller's 13 strikeouts. Just a dominant performance. In fact, for all the attention given to Matt Harvey this year, compare the two young right-handers:

Miller: 5-2, 1.58 ERA, 45.2 IP, 29 H, 3 HR, 11 BB, 51 SO, .179 AVG
Harvey: 4-0, 1.44 ERA, 56.1 IP, 27 H, 3 HR, 14 BB, 62 SO, .142 AVG

2. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals. Not to be outdone, Wainwright took a no-hitter into the eighth inning on Saturday, finishing with a two-hit shutout in another 3-0 win for the Cards. Wainwright improved to 5-2 with a 2.30 ERA and had strong words about his rookie teammate: "You follow Roger Clemens a couple times like I have been, it makes you focus a little bit more," he said. "Once you see Shelby mow through a lineup like he has all year, you want to go out there and do it, too." Kudos also to Cards manager Mike Matheny for leaving in Miller to throw 113 pitches, and Wainwright to throw 120. In this day when managers are too willing to yank starters at 100 pitches, it is good to see a manager let his guys go the distance.

3. Chris Sale, White Sox, and Jon Lester, Red Sox. Two more one-hit shutouts, Lester on Friday, Sale on Sunday. Can't anyone here hit anymore? Lester got 12 ground-ball outs as he joined Pedro Martinez (2000), Hideo Nomo (2001), Curt Schilling (2007) and Josh Beckett (2011) as Red Sox pitchers to throw a one-hit, no-walk shutout in the live ball era. But Sale threw his wearing the so-ugly-they're-cool 1983 throwback uniforms.

Clutch performance of the weekend
Evan Longoria, for his two-out, two-run, bottom-of-the-ninth home run to give the Rays a dramatic 8-7 win over the Padres on Saturday. My favorite part: There's some sort of picnic area in left-center (yes, "picnic area" and "domed stadium" is kind of an oxymoron) where the ball landed, and it looks like half the fans out there didn't realize it was a game-winning home run.

First off, credit Ben Zobrist for a drawing the two-out walk on a 3-2 pitch from Huston Street, working back from a 1-2 count. Street knew that was the batter he had to get. "You get him 1-2, you've got to make a pitch," he said. "I'm frustrated about that just as much as leaving a pitch to Longoria in the middle of the plate." The Rays had led 6-2 before the Padres scored five in the seventh, leading Joe Maddon to say it would have been one of Tampa's worst three losses of the year. "But you can't go to the dance playing like that. When you get leads, you've got to put the other team away. I'm not happy with that. That's inappropriate. That's got to stop," he said.

The Rays finished the sweep on Sunday, however -- their fifth win in a row -- and clawed a game over .500.

Best game
Well, that Padres-Rays game was pretty good. Miller's game was mesmerizing. Toronto's win over Boston on Saturday featured Adam Lind's go-ahead home run in the ninth off Junichi Tazawa, after the Red Sox had tied it in the bottom of the eighth. But I'll go with Cleveland's 7-6 win over Justin Verlander and the Tigers on Saturday. Or Cleveland's 4-3 win on Sunday, in which the Indians tied it in the ninth and won it in the 10th, leading to this quote from Mark Reynolds, who delivered the go-ahead single: "With two strikes, I'm just trying to shorten up my swing and get something into play," he said. Wait ... since when does Reynolds shorten up his swing? Gotta love baseball.

The Indians took two of three from the Tigers to move into a first-place tie with Detroit.

Hitter on the rise: Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
He had six home runs through April 21, but his average fell to .173 after a three-strikeout game on April 25. In 16 games, he's hit .419/.478/.694, with three more home runs, eight doubles and nearly as many walks (six) as strikeouts (eight). He has six three-hit games in that stretch, and he's showing he's more than just an all-or-nothing slugger. He's showing he's a guy who is going to be the Cubs' cleanup hitter for a long time.

Pitcher on the rise: Zach McAllister, Indians
Don't believe in the Indians? Don't believe in the rotation? McAllister is starting to look like another solid option alongside Justin Masterson. He didn't get a decision in Sunday's game but pitched a solid six innings. He's 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA and a decent 33/13 SO/BB ratio in 43.2 innings. He's a fly ball pitcher but has allowed just five home runs in seven starts. If he keeps the ball on the right side of the fence he has a chance to be successful.

Brandon Phillips play of the week
This one was pretty.

Happy Mother's Day
Pablo Sandoval uses his pink bat to launch one into McCovey Cove. Tim Lincecum backed up Sandoval with his best outing of the year as the Giants took the final three of four from the Braves. Tough stretch coming up for the Giants, however: 20 of their next 30 on the road, including series in Toronto, Colorado, St. Louis, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Atlanta.

Team on the rise: Indians
They're 12-2 over the past 14, hitting .305 with 24 home runs -- and that stretch does not include that 19-6 win over Houston earlier in the season. The pitching staff has a 2.98 ERA with 13 home runs allowed. The Indians lead the majors in home runs and OPS, and guys like Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera and Lonnie Chisenhall have room to do better.

Team on the fall: A's
Awful week, losing four to Cleveland and then two of three to Seattle. They scored more than three runs just once in seven games as injuries to outfielders Coco Crisp, Chris Young and Josh Reddick have left them playing Michael Taylor and Brandon Moss in the outfield (with Daric Barton or Nate Freiman replacing Moss at first base). Jarrod Parker is still scuffling (6.86 ERA, four walks in 6.1 innings on Saturday). The A's just need to get healthy, and they didn't hit their stride last year until July (they were 37-42 and 13 games out on July 1), so they may be down now, but hardly out.

Some quick reactions to Monday's fine major league baseball action ...

• [+] Enlarge

  Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesThe Giants on Monday recorded their first win of the season in a game that Matt Cain started.
  The good news for the Giants: A 6-4 win over the Diamondbacks to snap a five-game losing streak and a win for the first time when Matt Cain started. The bad news: Cain scuffled yet again. Cain was sailing along until the fourth inning, when he served up home runs to Jason Kubel, Eric Chavez and Martin Prado. Cain left with a no-decision, and while he remains winless in six starts, it's not just poor run support that explains his 0-2 record. He's allowed nine home runs in his past four starts, including three in two of those. He'd allowed three in a game just twice in the previous three seasons. He also walked four against Arizona. Should the Giants be worried? Kubel and Prado hit fastballs that were both down and in, while Chavez hit a changeup off the plate out to left. Blame Cain for the first two, but give Chavez credit for his. Hitters have been doing a lot of damage off Cain's fastball, hitting .264/.354/.528, compared to a .255/.332/.429 line last year. I think he'll be fine but everyone seems to agree that his stuff just hasn't been as sharp. Keep an eye on his fastball next time out; as with nearly every starting pitcher, everything else plays off the fastball.
• The Matt Harvey-Jose Fernandez matchup kind of fizzled as Fernandez lasted just four innings and 81 pitches while Harvey was pulled in the sixth after laboring through 121 pitches. The game ended up going 15 innings, thanks primarily to the Mets going 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position. The game featured 512 pitches, 16 pitchers and last more than 5 hours. Not exactly one for the time capsule. Shaun Marcum, who had started and threw 70 pitches on Saturday, ended up taking the loss for the Mets, giving up two runs in the bottom of the 15th after the Mets had scored in the top of the inning. At 10-14, reality is starting to hit the Mets: They're not very good. As for Fernandez, after a dominating first two starts, he's been hit around a bit, primarily to hitters jumping on his fastball early in the count. They're hitting .367 off the pitch in his past three starts. He's going to be a very good pitcher but he's learning that it's a big leap from Class A to the majors.
• Giancarlo Stanton landed on the DL after the game with a strained right hamstring suffered in the 10th inning. A shame, especially considering he had homered three times in six at-bats entering the game and looked ready to begin a patented Stanton terror. He missed time last year with a knee problem and then a strained intercostal muscle and you have to start wondering if durability is going to be an issue with him.
• Indians 9, Royals 0. Takeaways: 1. Ubaldo Jimenez won a game! Don't count on this becoming a regular habit. 2. Jason Kipnis hit his first home run. Kipnis (.185/.260/.277) and Lonnie Chisenhall (0-for-4, .221/.254/.368) have to start producing if the Indians want to do anything. 3. Eric Hosmer, another doughnut; .250, three doubles, no homers now and the frustrations build. 4. The Wade Davis (4.2 IP, 12 H, 8 R) starter experiment is probably nearing its end. His stuff just doesn't play up as a starter. Move him back to the pen where he was so good last year with Tampa and give Bruce Chen or Luke Hochevar another shot at the rotation. Wait, did I just say to start Bruce Chen or Luke Hochevar?
• Props to the Brewers: After starting 2-8, they'll end up finishing April with a winning record after beating the Pirates 10-4 to go to 13-11. Starter Yovani Gallardo hit his second home run -- one of five the Brewers hit -- and gave up just three hits in seven innings. Jean Segura is really looking good for the Brewers, with three more hits to raise his average to .364.
• The Dodgers activated Hanley Ramirez from the DL but he didn't start, which seems a little strange. He pinch-hit and struck out in a 12-2 loss to Colorado. The Dodgers' 6-7-8 hitters: Skip Schumaker, Luis Cruz and Justin Sellers. Come on. In his second major league game, Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado went 3-for-6 with his first home run. Welcome to the bigs, kid.
• Kevin Gregg picked put up his fourth save for the Cubs. KEVIN GREGG.
• A's fans chanting to Josh Hamilton: "Thank you, Josh. Thank you, Josh." (In reference to his dropped fly ball in Game 162 last year that helped the A's win the AL West.) Job well done, A's fans.

With apologies to the nice starts of the Pirates and Rockies, the most important story line of April has been the Braves' opening up a 3.5-game lead over the Nationals in the NL East.

Considering the importance of winning the division and avoiding the ridiculous wild-card play-in game, the last thing the Braves wanted to do was dig a hole and try to catch the Nats from behind. Atlanta's 16-9 start -- which includes a 3-2 win over Washington on Monday when No. 5 starter Julio Teheran faced off against Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg -- is even more impressive when you consider everything that has gone wrong for the Braves so far:

• Six-time All-Star catcher Brian McCann hasn't played a game.
• First baseman Freddie Freeman missed 14 games.
• Jason Heyward is hitting .121 and is currently on the DL after an appendectomy.
• B.J. Upton is .146.
• Dan Uggla is hitting .177.
• Teheran scuffled through 5.1 innings on Monday but allowed just two runs -- lowering his ERA to 5.08.

Plus, they Braves had to play 16 of their first 25 games on the road. Of course, a lot has gone right, beginning with Justin Upton hitting .304 with 12 home runs, Andrelton Simmons playing Gold Glove defense at shortstop, Evan Gattis emerging from Double-A to his six home runs, drive in 14 runs and turn into a cult hero while filling in for McCann, and the bullpen going 5-1 with a 2.07 ERA.

Most importantly, the Braves are now 4-0 against the Nationals, which means the Braves earn an A as I hand out my grades for April in the National League. Justin Upton earns an A+ for his monster month -- only four players have hit more home runs in April (Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols share the April record with 14) and only Bob Horner (14 in July 1980), Andruw Jones (13 in June 2005) and Ozzie Virgil (13 in May 1987) have hit more in a calendar month in Atlanta Braves history.

The Nationals, meanwhile, earn a C- for a lackluster 13-13 start -- they're 5-1 against the Marlins and 8-12 against the other major league opponents on their schedule. The Nationals also reported that Strasburg experienced forearm tightness during Monday's game and will be examined on Tuesday. Strasburg walked four while allowing just two runs in six innings against the Braves, but he hasn't been the Strasburg of 2012, or at least the Strasburg of the first three months of 2012. His strikeout rate is down, left-handed hitters have a .391 OBP against him and his ERA is 3.13, ranking just 26th in the NL. Strasburg earns a C, but teammate Bryce Harper earns an A+.

Some other NL grades for April:

Pirates bullpen: A. A key to Pittsburgh's lead in the NL Central has been a pen that has gone 6-2 with a 2.59 while pitching the second-most innings in the majors and allowing a .202 average, second behind Kansas City's .201 mark. Closer Jason Grilli has gone 10-for-10 in saves and has allowed one run in 11 innings.

Matt Harvey, Mets: A. I'd give him an A+, but he actually allowed a run against the Marlins on Monday. Harvey is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA and has held opponents to a .153 average. He did throw 121 pitches in just 5.1 innings against the Marlins, but more than anything that serves to show that Harvey has room to get even better. Which is a scary idea if you're a National League hitter.

Marlins: D-. Last in the majors in batting average, home runs, slugging percentage, OPS and ownership.

Mat Latos and Homer Bailey, Reds: A. It seems like there's a perception that the Reds are an explosive offensive team, but that wasn't the case last year (ninth in the NL in runs scored despite playing in a hitter's park) and while the Reds are second in the NL in runs scored in 2013, they also rank ninth in slugging percentage. The Reds rotation, however, was terrific last year and has been terrific again, second to the Cardinals with a 2.97 ERA. Latos and Bailey remain two of the more underrated starters in the NL. Latos threw six shutout innings against the Cardinals on Monday, picking up his second win and lowering his ERA to 1.83. Bailey is 1-2 thanks to poor run support but has a 2.81 ERA. The two have combined for 69 strikeouts and just 17 walks, and when Johnny Cueto returns from the DL, he might give the Reds the best starting pitching trio in the league.

Cardinals bullpen: F. St. Louis starters are 14-6 with a 2.20 ERA. St. Louis relievers are 0-5 with a 5.89 ERA and .301 average allowed.

Pablo Sandoval's waistline: F.

Pablo Sandoval's bat: B.

The decision by the Brewers to sign Yuniesky Betancourt: D-. I mean, really ... Yuni was going to help the Brewers?

Yuniesky Betancourt: B+. He's hitting .286/.305/.532 and has five homers and 20 RBIs in 23 games, helping the Brewers to fight through injuries to Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart. Don't you love baseball?

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies: A. He's back, he's hitting, he's fielding and the Rockies are in first place. The Rockies have to hope that the strained shoulder Tulo suffered on Sunday isn’t serious (he sat Monday’s game, but there are no plans for a trip to the DL).

Matt Kemp, Dodgers: D-. Heading into Monday's games, FanGraphs rated Kemp 33rd among 36 full-time NL outfielders in WAR -- ahead of only Juan Pierre, Jon Jay and Ben Revere.

Starlin Castro, Cubs: C. I have to remind myself he's still just 23, but Castro is in his fourth season and just hasn't that much with the bat. He's hitting .271 with two home runs, but his approach -- just three walks -- is still limiting his upside. A hitter with an OBP under .300 just isn't that valuable.

Weather in Colorado: F. Please, baseball, don't play games when the weather is below freezing.

The final weekend of April is upon us and while it's still too early for most teams struggling in the standings to panic, that doesn't mean there won't be some panicking anyway. For example, big things were expected from the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels, but barring a big winning streak to close April those teams will start May with more losses than wins. This weekend the Blue Jays visit Yankee Stadium, while the Angels will be sleeping in Seattle, and the pressure is on. Here is what else you need to know for this weekend:

Revenge! Earlier this month defending division champs Cincinnati and Washington met in Ohio, and the Reds had the edge, taking the first game 15-0 and the third game 6-3, beating Stephen Strasburg. This series began on Thursday with a blowout Nationals win, and continues through the weekend. This could certainly be a playoff preview, but will the Nationals still be relying on Saturday starter Dan Haren by October? And what about the Reds with rookie lefty Tony Cingrani, scheduled to start Sunday? Haren hasn't retired a hitter in the sixth inning of any of his four starts, and while he searches for answers, don't be shocked when the Nationals upgrade as the year goes on. Cingrani has been terrific, and Sunday will be a test, but regardless of statistics he could be headed back to the minors soon when Johnny Cueto is healthy.

Surprises no more: A year ago today the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics seemed more likely to be last-place teams rather than playoff entrants, but the rest was history. Each team is off to a strong start and they'll continue their series, which also began Thursday (with an Orioles victory), in the Bay Area. Right-hander Bartolo Colon comes off a rain-shortened shutout (seven innings at Fenway Park) and is Sunday's scheduled starter. Colon, soon to be 40, is 3-0 already with a 2.42 ERA and he's issued one walk while striking out 17. How does he do it? Nine out of every 10 of his pitches are fastballs, and he's still hitting 90 mph on the radar gun, so give him credit for location, location and more location.

Bullpen follies: In one bullpen you've got the best closer in the business in Craig Kimbrel. In the other it's Jose Valverde, unemployed all winter, in Single-A ball when this week began and now closing again. It's quite the difference! The Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers are likely playoff teams no matter how their bullpens evolve (each bullpen will be fine) and face off in Detroit in the lone interleague series. The Braves have the pitching edge, as they avoid Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, and their trio of Paul Maholm, Kris Medlen and Mike Minor bring a composite 1.65 ERA with them. The Tigers will send right-hander Rick Porcello to the mound Saturday, coming off an outing in which he was charged with nine runs in the first inning at Anaheim. Still only 24 but with a career ERA of 4.67 in more than 700 innings, those expecting Porcello to suddenly emerge as a star might be waiting a really long time. Minor and the worthy Doug Fister are scheduled to meet on Sunday night on ESPN.

Worst of the worst: Meanwhile, the battles aren't solely between contending teams. The Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins certainly aren't good teams, but that doesn't mean there isn't much to watch. For the dysfunctional Marlins, it's all about outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, off to miserable start. For those blaming the lack of offense around him I ask, who exactly protected Stanton in the lineup last year, Jose Reyes and Emilio Bonifacio? For the Cubs, it's worth tuning in if they have a ninth-inning lead. Pick the over on potential Carlos Marmol bases on balls. Tune in to this series and get a few laughs.

From Cy to Sigh: Every R.A. Dickey outing is worth a look, just to see how the knuckleball will be floating, and so far it seems last season's NL Cy Young award winner is even less sure than normal where it's going. Dickey's numbers are a bit inflated (4.66 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), likely in some part due to neck and back stiffness that he says has affected the knuckleball's velocity. Dickey has never started a game at Yankee Stadium, and it's not exactly a great offensive squad he'll face (Jayson Nix! Lyle Overbay! Brennan Boesch!), but if the Blue Jays are going to contend in the AL East, they'll need better pitching than they’ve received.

Enjoy your weekend!