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So we ended up with the quite the finish here. Lots of bad baseball down the stretch. Lots. Remember: The top 10 picks are protected if you sign a free agent who is given a qualifying offer. Plus, the worse you finish in the overall standings the more money you get to spend in the draft. Yay, incentivized losing!

1. Astros: 51-111
Just in case they were worried about the Marlins catching them, they lost their final 15 games to ensure the No. 1 pick for the third draft in a row.

2. Marlins: 62-100
Kudos to Henderson Alvarez for his final-day no-hitter. In fact, the Marlins swept the Tigers in that season-ending series and won five of their final six, allowing just seven runs over those six games.

3. White Sox: 63-99
Tried hard to catch the Marlins, going 7-21 in September and losing five of their final six. Went 2-17 against the Indians, although no truth to the rumor that the Indians will share their playoff shares with the White Sox.

4. Cubs: 66-96
Ended up tied with the Twins, but get the higher pick based on 2012 record. And boy did they fight hard to get that fourth pick. Lost six of their final seven and 12 of their final 15.

5. Twins: 66-96
Lost 10 of final 11. Too bad they beat the Tigers in extra innings on Sept. 23 or they would be drafting one slot higher. In Sunday's finale, ensured defeat with three errors. In the sixth inning. Nice job, Twins!

6. Mariners: 71-91
Went 6-14 over their final 20 games to slide from a bubble team securely into a top-10 position. Lost their final eight extra-inning games, proving there's an art to successful tanking. Namely: A bad bullpen helps.

7. Phillies: 73-89
It looked like they would jump out of the bottom 10 but then lost nine of their final 11. No wonder Ryne Sandberg got the job for next year! The final game was huge, as the Phillies came up big with a 12-5 loss to the Braves.

Now, this is where things get really interesting. We had a four-way tie for spots 8 through 11. The tiebreaker is 2012 record. So ...

8. Rockies: 74-88
Those two one-run wins over the Dodgers on Saturday and Sunday didn't help, but the tiebreaker gives them the edge. Not that they'll be pursuing Robinson Cano or anything.

9. Blue Jays: 74-88
How nervous was GM Alex Anthopoulos watching the Jays nearly rally from a 7-0 deficit on Sunday? They did beat the Rays twice on the final weekend but still lost 12 of their final 19.

10. Mets: 74-88
The Mets had the most to lose if they finished out of the top 10, since they presumably could be pursuing some of the big free agents this winter. Luckily the offense came through with three straight 4-2 losses to the Brewers (before winning the season finale 3-2).

11. Brewers: 74-88
Well, this is what a 15-12 record in September will do to you. No Kyle Lohse for the Brewers this offseason!

12. Padres: 76-86
Yes, Padres fans, there were 11 teams worse than yours.

13. Giants: 76-86
The Giants went 10-5 over their final 15 to at least avoid becoming just the second World Series winner (after the 1997 Marlins) to finish in last place the next season. So there's that.

14. Angels: 78-84
A 21-7 stretch in August/September ruined any chance the Angels had of finishing with a top-10 pick. So if they went to throw $250 million at Cano, it will cost them their first-round pick.

Here are my choices for the 2013 American League All-Star team:

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Twins (.324/.404/.476, 11 HRs, 47 RBIs, 5.2 WAR)
There's not a real clear choice, as Mauer played just 75 of his 113 games behind the plate, but he's the best hitter among the catchers and threw out a league-leading 43 percent of base stealers. Carlos Santana has good offensive numbers, but he played a lot of first base and DH and struggled defensively. Jason Castro's fine season was buried in the Astros' awfulness, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia has hit .272, raising his average 50 points from last year, while bashing 40 doubles and 14 home runs. If he had played a little more behind the plate -- he started 95 games -- he might have been my choice.

First base: Chris Davis, Orioles (.287/.370/.637, 53 HRs, 138 RBIs, 6.7 WAR)
Davis is the easy choice in a weak year at first base in the AL. The only other two first basemen to slug .500 were Edwin Encarnacion, who spent a large chunk of his time at DH, and Brandon Moss, a platoon player. Davis joined Babe Ruth and Albert Belle as the only players with 50 home runs and 40 doubles in a season.

Second base: Robinson Cano, Yankees (.313/.383/.514, 27 HRs, 106 RBIs, 7.6 WAR)
In a year when so much went wrong with the Yankees, Cano was the one constant, missing just one game and putting up his usual excellent numbers. Now the Yankees have to decide exactly how much they're willing to pay for those numbers. Teams like the Dodgers and Nationals could pursue the free agent this winter.

Third base: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.347/.441/.637, 44 HRs, 137 RBIs, 7.1 WAR)
Despite the injury issues that have slowed him in September (.265, just two extra-base hits and seven RBIs), Cabrera remains the likely MVP winner, thanks in part to a .397/.529/.782 mark with runners in scoring position. It's a deep position with Josh Donaldson having his own MVP-caliber season, Manny Machado catching everything at the hot corner and Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre once again doing everything, but it's hard to deny Miggy's dominance with the bat.

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy, Orioles (.262/.305/.432, 25 HRs, 74 RBIs, 3.6 WAR)
There's not an obvious guy at the position. Hardy is good defensively and has power, but that .305 OBP lowers his offensive value. Yunel Escobar may have had the best year on defense, but a slow start dragged down his offense. Elvis Andrus plays great defense and has 41 steals but doesn't give you much at the plate. Jed Lowrie stayed healthy and hit but lacks range. In the end, I went with Hardy, who has played 157 games and gives you a little on both sides of the ball.

Left field: Mike Trout, Angels (.323/.431/.554, 26 HRs, 94 RBIs, 9.1 WAR)
OK, I cheated a little bit since Trout actually started more games in center than left. But the state of left field in the AL is pretty pathetic, with Alex Gordon and Michael Brantley the only other two rated as even 2.0 WAR players.

Center field: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox (.297/.355/.421, 8 HRs, 52 RBIs, 5.7 WAR)
Ellsbury also stole 52 bases in 56 attempts, the second-best percentage ever for a player with at least 50 steals. Orioles fans will argue for Adam Jones, who has 33 home runs and 108 RBIs, but he's drawn just 25 walks so his OBP is a mediocre .318 and his defense doesn't match Ellsbury's.

Right field: Shane Victorino, Red Sox (.297/.354/.456, 15 HRs, 61 RBIs, 6.2 WAR)
He's been solid offensively -- including hitting .303 and slugging .515 while having to bat right-handed against right-handed pitchers after a hamstring injury prevented him from batting left-handed. He has been terrific defensively with 24 Defensive Runs Saved, the sixth-best total in the majors at any position. Again, nobody with big numbers here on offense, especially with Jose Bautista's season-ending injury, but Victorino is a worthy selection.

Designated hitter: David Ortiz, Red Sox (.308/.395/.565, 30 HRs, 103 RBIs, 4.3 WAR)
At 37, he's still going strong with his seventh 30-homer, 100-RBI season. Hall of Famer? He's up to 431 career home runs and 1,429 RBIs.

Starting pitchers: Max Scherzer, Tigers (21-3, 2.90 ERA, 6.6 WAR); Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners (14-6, 2.66 ERA, 7.0 WAR); Chris Sale, White Sox (11-14, 3.07 ERA, 7.0 WAR); Yu Darvish, Rangers (13-9, 2.82 ERA, 5.7 WAR); Anibal Sanchez, Tigers (14-8, 2.64 ERA, 6.0 WAR)
Apologies to Bartolo Colon and Felix Hernandez, and even Clay Buchholz, who went 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 16 starts.

Left-handed setup guy: Neal Cotts, Rangers (7-3, 1.13 ERA)
Cotts was one of the great stories of the season. He hadn't pitched in the majors since 2009, having Tommy John and four hip surgeries in the intervening years. He pitched in 25 games for the Rangers in Triple-A last year and started there again this season before getting recalled. In 55 2/3 innings, he's allowed just eight runs and 35 hits while striking out 63.

Right-handed setup guy: David Robertson, Yankees (5-1, 2.07 ERA)
For those worried about replacing Mariano Rivera as Yankees closer, the bigger question may actually be: Who replaces Robertson as the eighth-inning guy?

Closer: Koji Uehara, Red Sox (4-1, 21 saves, 1.10 ERA)
Apologies to Kansas City's Greg Holland, who has a 1.23 ERA and 46 saves, and Texas' Joe Nathan, who has a 1.41 ERA and 43 saves. But Uehara, who began the year in middle relief, has put up one of the most dominant relief seasons ever, limiting batters to a .129 average with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 100-to-9.

Bud Selig has officially announced that he'll step down as commissioner in January 2015. Jerry Crasnick will assess his legacy (hey, if Bowie Kuhn made the Hall of Fame I suspect Selig will eventually as well), but here are five key issues for the next commissioner to address.

1. Instant replay and quality of umpiring

We finally get expanded replay next season, so that should help resolve some of the controversial and blown calls. It remains to be seen how effective and efficient the system will be, but it can be adjusted as necessary. Just as importantly, the new commissioner has to work to improve consistency of ball/strike calls and reduce the episodes of ump rage.

Right now, the best umps (Eric Cooper, Chad Fairchild, Phil Cuzzi) get about 90 percent of ball/strike calls correct, according to our pitch data; the worst umps (Wally Bell, Tim Welke, Kerwin Danley, Jerry Meals) are at 86 percent. That difference may not seem like a lot, but that's a spread of 10 incorrect calls per 250 pitches. Even a 90 percent correct rate means the best umps are missing about 25 to 30 ball/strike calls a game. Maybe the human eye can't do better, but MLB needs to pay its umpire better, and in particular pay minor league umpires a living wage, so you can recruit from a wider field of candidates.

2. To DH or not to DH?

This ridiculousness has gone on too long. You simply can't have one sport with two leagues playing under different rules. The answer seems to be pretty obvious: Get rid of the designated hitter. There were only four full-time DHs this year: David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, Billy Butler and Kendrys Morales. They all batted at least 500 times as a DH. Nobody else even had 300 plate appearances (including Adam Dunn, who played a lot of first base). With so few teams actually using a DH, the resolution should be pretty clear. OK, so Butler is the youngest of those four and signed through 2015. No DH starting in 2016.

3. Oakland and Tampa Bay stadium issues

Look, both organizations have shown they can compete and win in spite of their lousy ballparks and low revenue. Part of the problem is that other teams are tired of propping up the Rays and A's. "The key here is to recognize that without the revenue-sharing dollars, we wouldn't even be able to compete or do what we're doing," Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said in August. "The other owners are looking at this and saying, 'How many years is this going to be? How much money is this going to be to a failing situation?'"

Oakland's problem is more easily solved. The A's want to move to San Jose; the Giants hold territorial rights to Santa Clara County (given to them years ago by the A's). A three-quarters majority vote of all owners can return those rights to the A's, but Selig has refused to call for a vote, wanting unanimity, including the Giants. Well, of course, the Giants would vote against it. The new commish should side with the A's here and get them, literally, out of the sewage.

4. Tanking

I've written about this issue. Buster Olney addressed it the other day. The current collective bargaining agreement makes it beneficial for teams to lose -- either to get a higher draft position (and thus more money to spend in the draft) or finish with one of the 10 worst records and thus have a protected first-round pick when signing free agents. What kind of sport essentially encourages tanking for 10 or more teams?

This season, we'll likely finish with 10 teams and maybe 11 winning 90 games ... and seven to 10 losing 90 games. You don't want to read too much into one season, but it's possible we'll see more seasons like this: Contenders and non-contenders, which makes for a less interesting sport. Back in 2004, only five teams won 90 and six lost 90. That's a healthier sport.

But the draft rules tie into another problem. For the most part, the owners love the new rules and capping the amount teams can spend in the draft. Why give more money to amateurs when you can pocket some of that money instead and buy new leather seats for your private jet? The long-range issue here is obvious: You risk talented athletes choosing other sports as signing bonuses decrease. The new commissioner should find ways to get more athletes playing baseball, rather than potentially pushing them towards a different sport.

5. The schedule

Nobody likes the fact that interleague play is now a constant throughout the season, but that's unavoidable with 15 teams in each league. But the unbalanced schedule creates issues of teams competing for the same thing (a wild-card spot) while playing vastly different schedules.

My own personal pet peeve is that the season drags too long into October. Last year's World Series games in Detroit were played in brutally cold weather. Depending on which teams advance, you're often playing your most important games of the year in your worst weather. The World Series can be as much a test of ability as a test of weather fortitude. There isn't a good solution, unless your shorten the regular season or the playoffs, add some doubleheaders, or -- god forbid -- play some World Series games during the day. The weather in Detroit in the afternoon last October was quite lovely. At night? Not so much.

With four scoreless starts in his past five outings, Seattle Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma has forced his way into the Cy Young discussion. He's now 14-6 with a 2.66 ERA.

Eric Karabell calls Iwakuma his fantasy MVP among pitchers, but that's factoring in Iwakuma's relatively low average draft position. Eric's also right about this: Max Scherzer will probably win the award easily thanks to his sterling 21-3 record.

But whether Scherzer should be a lock is no longer such a sure thing.

Iwakuma ranks third in the AL in ERA (just behind the 2.64 marks of Bartolo Colon and Anibal Sanchez, both of whom have pitched far fewer innings), second to James Shields in innings pitched, second to Scherzer in opponents' OBP, third to Yu Darvish and Scherzer in batting average allowed and fourth in strikeout/walk ratio behind David Price, Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez.

In terms of Baseball-Reference WAR, however, it's not a two-pitcher race but a three-pitcher one:

Sale: 7.2 WAR (11-13, 2.97 ERA)
Iwakuma: 7.0 WAR (14-6, 2.66 ERA)
Scherzer: 6.7 WAR (21-3, 2.90 ERA)

The raw totals are close: Sale has allowed 77 runs in 209 innings, Iwakuma has allowed 69 in 219 2/3 and Scherzer has allowed 73 in 214 1/3. The statistical edge Sale and Scherzer have over Iwakuma is strikeouts -- 240 for Scherzer, 221 for Sale, 185 for Iwakuma.

(For the record, Iwakuma is rated much lower via FanGraphs WAR, which focuses on strikeouts, walks and home runs as opposed to actual run prevention. Scherzer, however, has pitched slightly worse with runners on base, or at least had worse results, than Iwakuma. For example, Iwakuma has allowed 25 home runs, but 19 have been solo shots. He's allowed a .228 average with the bases empty but .184 with runners in scoring position. Scherzer has allowed a .186 average with the bases empty versus .223 with runners in scoring position.)

One thing I like to look at is starts allowing two runs or fewer. You should win most of those starts; allow three and it's more of a 50-50 proposition; allow four or more, and you rarely win (only three pitchers have won at least four games this year when they allowed four-plus runs and only five, including Scherzer, have won three).

Record when allowing two runs or fewer:

Scherzer: 20 starts, 15-1, four no-decisions, 1.61 ERA
Sale: 14 starts, 9-3, two no-decisions, 0.98 ERA
Iwakuma: 20 starts, 12-1, seven no-decisions, 0.97 ERA

Iwakuma has pitched better than Scherzer in his good starts yet has three fewer wins. In fact, he's had four no-decisions when allowing zero runs. (All three pitchers have had seven starts allowing four runs or more.)

So yes, Scherzer has had better run support. Really, you can dissect this a lot of ways and all three are pretty even. But I suspect if you put Scherzer on the Mariners, we wouldn't be talking about a landslide Cy Young vote.

(For the record, I'd probably go Scherzer, Iwakuma, Sale, Darvish and Hernandez on my five-pitcher ballot. But maybe that's the Mariners fan in me not trying to be biased.)

Greatest win of my life!!! #believeland

— Nick Swisher (@NickSwisher) September 25, 2013

One moment, you're crying and cursing out Chris Perez for blowing the game by giving up two home runs.

The next moment, you're crying and hugging the person in the seat next to you, or hugging and dancing with your brother or your wife or maybe just your dog: Jason Giambi, old man Giambi, just hit a dramatic, walk-off, two-run, emotionally draining home run to help get your Cleveland Indians one game closer to the playoffs.

Or maybe you're not an Indians fan. Maybe you're just a baseball fan, rooting for drama and surprise and fantastical things. Giambi's home run was all of those.

Considering the circumstances, it was the game of the year so far: the Indians going from a heartbreaking blown lead in the top of the ninth to Giambi swatting a two-out, pinch-hit home run to beat the White Sox 5-4 and stun -- in a deliciously good way -- a Cleveland fan base that has understandably grown accustomed to expecting the worst kind of misery, no matter the sport.

But it happened. Believe it, Cleveland. Terry Francona sent up .177-hitting, gray-haired, one-homer-since-July Jason Giambi to do one thing, and Giambi did it, belting a 1-1 slider from Addison Reed deep to right field.

Maybe it's difficult to get sentimental over a player like Giambi, with his steroids-stained past, but call me sentimental: It was one final great moment from a player I've always enjoyed watching. It very well may be the last home run Giambi ever hits in the major leagues, and if so, what a way to go out. The Indians could still miss the playoffs, or they could make the wild-card game and lose it, or maybe Giambi doesn't even make the postseason roster (he'd had just 19 plate appearances in September before Tuesday).

Maybe Reed shouldn't have thrown that 1-1 slider; Giambi's bat speed obviously isn't what it was during his MVP days with the A's, and as they say, don't help speed up a slow bat by throwing a slider. On the other hand, Giambi had just three hits off sliders all season -- 3-for-28, a .107 average -- but two of those hits were home runs. Now he has four hits off sliders; three of them were home runs, and two of those were walk-offs, both of them against the White Sox.

Remember when Giambi interviewed for the Rockies' managing job in the offseason? He lost out to Walt Weiss and instead signed with the Indians, one last gasp of a baseball career for a guy who had hit .225 with one home run with the Rockies in 2012. He’s 42 years old, and it's hard to give up this sport.

There had been cries to cut Giambi loose throughout the season, considering his average hovered below the Mendoza Line much of the season and he'd been hitting .136 since the All-Star break. But Francona kept him around, probably for his clubhouse presence as much as his ability to provide power off the bench. A left-handed bat with home run power isn't the worst thing to have around as your 25th guy.

The Rangers beat the Astros 3-2, so Cleveland's lead over Texas remains a slim one game. The biggest loser on Tuesday was the Royals, who needed the Indians and Rangers to lose.

That's the joy and heartbreak of a playoff race; Jason Giambi delivered joy to the Indians and heartbreak to the Royals with one memorable swing.

Game of the year? I say so. But, hey, we still have five days left in the regular season.

Back in March, Goose Gossage said he thinks Mariano Rivera is pretty great, but also added, "I think that these guys are so dominant in that one-inning role that they've forgotten what we used to do. It takes three guys to do what we used to do."

He's right, of course. I wrote about Gossage versus Rivera at the time, so I'm not going to revisit that debate. But in writing earlier about Koji Uehara's terrific season, I pointed out that Gossage's 1975 season with the White Sox rates as the most valuable relief season ever, at least by Baseball-Reference WAR.

Gossage was 23 years old that year, turned 24 in July. It was his second full season in the majors and he went 9-8 with a 1.84 ERA and league-leading 26 saves. More impressively, he pitched 141.2 innings, held batters to a .201 average and allowed just three home runs.

I thought it would be fun to take a quick look at Gossage's season. Let's compare it to Craig Kimbrel's 2012 season, certainly one of the greatest seasons ever by a modern closer.

Appearances
Gossage: 62
Kimbrel: 63

One concept of the modern closer is that using him for one inning supposedly means he is available to pitch in more games, but that wasn't the case with Gossage's season.

Innings
Gossage: 141.2
Kimbrel: 62.2

Gossage threw more innings than Kimbrel has in two seasons.

Inning of entry
Gossage: 3rd (1 time), 5th (6), 6th (8), 7th (20), 8th (13), 9th (12), extra (2)
Kimbrel: 8th (1), 9th (60), extra (2)

Obviously, the modern closer is used only in the ninth to protect a lead, or in home games when the game is tied. Gossage was used any time the game was close, usually in the seventh inning on, but sometimes in the fifth or sixth.

Times pitched more than one inning
Gossage: 41
Kimbrel: 1

Here's an interesting nugget: Gossage pitched exactly one inning just three times. So even when he entered in the ninth, it was often after the starter or another reliever had run into trouble, not to start the inning.

Longest outing
Gossage: 7.2 innings
Kimbrel: 1.1 innings

Gossage pitched five-plus innings six times and three-plus 22 times. On this account, he's absolutely right about the modern closers. Imagine if managers stretched out the bullpens even a little bit, cut down on a reliever or two, and added another bat or pinch-runner to the bench. Would teams be better off? Gossage's 7.2-inning stint came on June 11 against Boston. He entered in the seventh inning and pitched through the 14th -- finally faltering in the 14th, giving up two runs on a Carl Yastrzemski home run and taking the loss. At least he was given three days of rest before his next appearance.

Inherited runners
Gossage: 99
Kimbrel: 4

Another huge difference between generations. Modern closers, even with their sky-high strikeout rates, are rarely brought in to actually put out fires. That's left to the middle relievers. Gossage had to escape jams and pitch the rest of the game.

So, yes, modern closers like Kimbrel and Uehara and Rivera are harder to hit and more dominant than ever. But, as Gossage said, don't forget what he used to do.

By the way, in 1976 the White Sox hired Paul Richards as manager. He was 67 and hadn't managed since 1961. That was a different and he thought it made sense to put your best arms in the rotation, so he mad Gossage a starter. He went 9-17 with a 3.94 ERA ... although did throw 15 complete games. Chuck Tanner, who managed him in 1975, got him in trade for the Pirates and returned him to the bullpen. From 1977 through 1985, Gossage posted a 2.10 ERA while averaging 93 innings per season.

We haven't done this in a while. If you haven't been paying close attention to the numbers, you may be surprised by some of these comparisons:

Player A: .265/.342/.496, 28 HR, 72 RBI, 132 OPS+
Player B: .283/.352/.468, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 134 OPS+

Player A is Evan Longoria, Player B is Kyle Seager. Longoria does hold the WAR advantage, 5.2 to 4.1, thanks to better defense, but Seager is quietly have another solid season at the plate.

Player A: .271/.359/.448, 22 HR, 117 OPS+, 1.0 WAR
Player B: .260/.370/.446, 17 HR, 131 OPS+, 3.1 WAR

Player A is Prince Fielder, Player B is Carlos Santana. Of course, I left out RBIs, and Fielder has 95 of those compared to 60 for Santana (Fielder has 81 more plate appearances). Has Fielder had a great RBI season? According to Baseball-Reference, the average major leaguer drives in 65 runs in 622 plate appearances, so Fielder is +30. Sounds good. But ... he's also had 98 more runners on base than the average hitter. In WAR, Santana moves ahead thanks to Fielder's poor defense and a positional adjustment for Santana, because he's played a lot behind the plate.

Player A: .233/.291/.448, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 1.5 WAR
Player B: .238/.299/.422, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 1.0 WAR

Player A is Mark Trumbo and Player B is Angels teammate Josh Hamilton. Trumbo has escaped criticism because he has more home runs and RBIs, but he's also another sub-.300 OBP guy in the middle of the Angels' lineup.

Player A: .243/.311/.433, 17 HR, 102 OPS+
Player B: .267/.316/.420, 18 HR, 98 OPS+

Looks pretty close, right? What if I told you one of these guys has 101 RBIs and has been touted as an MVP candidate by some (OK, at least one prominent national broadcaster), and the other guy has 60 RBIs.

Player A is Twins second baseman Brian Dozier and Player B is Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips. In terms of WAR, Dozier has the bigger advantage, 3.8 to 1.7. Look, Phillips is hitting .354 with runners in scoring position. He's also hitting .211 with a .249 OBP with the bases empty; those at-bats count, too. Phillips has made the fourth-most outs in the NL.

Player A: 209 IP, 145 H, 47 BB, 201 SO, 6.6 WAR
Player B: 187.2 IP, 158 H, 40 BB, 199 SO, 6.2 WAR

Pretty similar. Both are left-handed. One stat I left out: Player A has a 1.89 ERA, while Player B's is 2.97. Player A, of course, is Clayton Kershaw while Player B is Chris Sale. How can Sale be close despite an ERA a run higher? A few things. We're talking an NL pitcher versus an AL one, so Kershaw's run-scoring environment is a little lower. Home park: Kershaw pitches in Dodger Stadium, a good park for pitchers, while Sale pitches at The Cell, a hitter's park. Quality of opponents: Kershaw's opponents have averaged 4.20 runs per game compared to 4.51 for Sale's. Defense: Kershaw's is good, Sale's isn't. So why has nobody noticed Sale's season? He's 10-12. Put him on the Tigers and he'd be competing with Max Scherzer for Cy Young Award honors.

Player A: 193 IP, 180 H, 43 BB, 174 SO, 3.50 ERA, 4.1 WAR
Player B: 184 IP, 169 H, 50 BB, 172 SO, 2.98 ERA, 4.0 WAR

Cole Hamels is A, and Mat Latos is B. Of course, Hamels is 6-13 and Latos is 14-5, obscuring the fact that Hamels has been outstanding. Hamels was 1-9 with an ERA approaching 5 through May, and those bad starts (or good starts) stick in our memories. But since July, he's made 12 starts and posted a 2.17 ERA, allowing more than two runs just twice (though he has just four wins). He's still one of the best left-handers in the league.

One more:

Player A: 5-2, 1.48 ERA, 38 saves, 2 blown saves
Player B: 4-2, 2.19 ERA, 41 saves, 6 blown saves

Joe Nathan (A) and Mariano Rivera (B). By the way, Nathan's career save percentage since becoming a closer: 91 percent. Rivera's since becoming a closer: 90 percent, not including the postseason.

Eric Karabell and myself discuss the rankings of a few teams in ESPN Insider's Future Power Rankings project.

The New York Mets' rotation right now includes Daisuke Matsuzaka, who owns the worst ERA since 2009 of any pitcher with at least 300 innings. They just signed Aaron Harang, released by the Mariners after posting a 9.12 ERA in August.

Why would a team playing out the string give starts to two washed-up veterans?

It's pretty simple: The Mets have come down with injuries to their rotation and they want to limit Zack Wheeler's innings, so they'll use a six-man rotation in September to space out his starts. Unwilling to use some of the younger pitchers already on the 40-man roster -- who would have their own innings limits -- the Mets dug up whoever they could to fill their holes.

But it's not quite so simple; there's more to it than just protecting Wheeler. The Mets want to lose. Or, at least, I think they want to lose, because there is incentive to lose ... or lose often enough to finish with one of the 10 worst records in baseball.

Remember last winter when the Mets wanted to sign free agent Michael Bourn? And Bourn apparently wanted to play with the Mets? Bourn ended up signing with Cleveland because the Mets held the 11th pick in the first round -- and only the first 10 picks are protected if you sign a free agent who has been given a qualifying offer by his previous team. The Mets decided that signing Bourn and losing the pick wasn't worth it; the Indians, drafting fifth, signed Bourn and Nick Swisher, two free agents tied to qualifying offers.

Basically, by tying draft picks to free agency, MLB is encouraging tanking. No team wants to finish with the 11th- or 12th-worst record and lose that first-round pick if they sign an elite free agent -- which this offseason could include the likes of Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Matt Garza, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Ervin Santana. You don't think the Mets would be interested in a couple of those outfielders?

True, free agency has always been tied to draft picks, but two things happened in the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement. First, it used to be that the top 15 picks were protected when signing the old "Type A" free agent; there is a big difference, however, between the 10th-worst team, which is a team that usually finishes well under .500, and a middle-of-the-pack team, which is usually one on the fringes of the playoff race. This year, for example, the No. 15 team is Washington, currently a game over .500. The second major change was that each team is given a draft budget, based on money allocated for each pick. Finish worse and you get more money to spend on the draft.

That means September baseball will include Matsuzaka and Harang pitching their hearts out to help the Mets. You see, the Mets currently own the 10th-worst record in the majors. They are right on the border of no-man's land, "leading" the Phillies and Blue Jays by just one game. In fact, the race for the 10th spot is going to be nearly as heated as the race for the playoffs. Here are the standings in the race for No. 10 -- starting with the Astros and including how many games behind each team is from the team below them:

Team            W   L  Pct.    GB

1. Astros      45  92  .328   ---

2. Marlins     51  85  .375   6.5

3. White Sox   56  80  .412     5

4. Cubs        58  79  .423   1.5

5. Brewers     59  78  .431     1

6. Twins       60  76  .441   1.5

7. Padres      61  76  .445   0.5

7. Giants      61  76  .445   0.5

9. Mariners    62  75  .453     1

10. Mets       62  74  .456   0.5

11. Blue Jays  63  75  .457     1

11. Phillies   63  75  .457     1 

13. Rockies    65  74  .468   1.5

14. Angels     64  72  .471   0.5

The Twins, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Blue Jays and Phillies -- sixth-worst to 12th-worst -- are separated by just two games. In the 2013 draft, the Marlins drafted sixth and had a draft budget of $9.5 million. The Mariners drafted 12th and had a budget of $6.1 million. It's going to be a mad, mad scramble to lose just the right amount of games. Not that front offices right on the border will ever admit that.

The final standings are particularly crucial to clubs like the Mets, Phillies, Giants and Mariners, who would be willing to spend the money to dip into the free-agent market to plug holes. Like the Mets, the Mariners are desperate for outfielders. Ellsbury, an Oregon native, would be a perfect fit for their center-field hole; Choo would look great in a corner outfield slot. But the risk of losing that pick if you finish No. 11 has to be weighed.

Look, there's risk in tanking. The Astros tore everything apart a couple of years ago in beginning a complete overhaul of the organization, but how many fans will they lose with years of bad baseball and how many years will it take to win them back? But that's an extreme example. We're really talking only a few wins here -- 74 wins instead of 77. That's not going to have an effect on your fan base or season-ticket sales. (There's an argument that finishing over .500 provides more hope and could lead to more ticket sales over the winter, but right now none of these teams are pushing .500.)

So if you're a Mets fan or Phillies fan or Mariners fan, you have some standings to pay attention to in September. Enjoy the tanking.

When Alex Rodriguez got caught off second base on Ichiro Suzuki's line drive back to the pitcher in the 10th inning, I was sure the Tampa Bay Rays would win.

When Joba Chamberlain walked Jose Molina leading off the bottom of the 10th, I was sure the Rays would win.

It just seemed like one of those classic Tampa Bay games -- Joe Maddon pulls the right moves -- like not pinch hitting for Molina -- and the Rays scratch out the victory.

But the New York Yankees also know how to scratch, and Boone Logan got a double play, Alfonso Soriano doubled and stole third (stole third!) and scored on a sac fly and Mariano Rivera went 1-2-3 and the Yankees managed to avoid a sweep.

Soriano gave one of the great quotes of the year about his surprise, one-out steal, which he swiped even while stumbling: "Being the DH, my leg is not loose 100 percent. My mind is 100 percent but legs are not."

A lot of legs aren't 100 percent this time of year, making the final stretch run so exciting: Which teams and players will wobble to the finish line, and which will sprint across it? Here are some predictions for the final five weeks:

1. The Yankees finish two wins short of the wild card. They've made it interesting, which is a remarkable feat, but I'm still having trouble seeing them passing three teams to win a wild-card spot. On the other hand, if they stay in it, their final four series are against the Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Rays and Houston Astros, and three of those teams will be playing out the string. Can you imagine the uproar if the Yankees make it … and then Rodriguez plays in the postseason and leads the Yankees to the World Series title and Bud Selig has to hand him the World Series MVP trophy?

2. The Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers will finish with their respective league's best record. It's a great battle for best overall record in both leagues, and I'll go with the Braves and Tigers to lock up home-field advantage, but what's the value in that? Let's check the past 10 seasons:

2012: Yankees (lost ALCS); Washington Nationals (lost NLDS)
2011: Yankees (lost ALDS); Philadelphia Phillies (lost NLDS)
2010: Rays (lost ALDS); Phillies (lost NLCS)
2009: Yankees (won World Series); Los Angeles Dodgers (lost NLCS)
2008: Los Angeles Angels (lost ALDS); Chicago Cubs (lost NLDS)
2007: Boston Red Sox (won World Series)/Cleveland Indians (lost ALCS); Arizona Diamondbacks (lost NLCS)
2006: Yankees (lost ALDS); New York Mets (lost NLCS)
2005: Chicago White Sox (won World Series); Cardinals (lost NLCS)
2004: Yankees (lost ALCS); St. Louis Cardinals (lost World Series)
2003: Yankees (lost World Series); Braves (lost NLDS)

So, five of 20 reached the World Series, and two won. Basically, home-field advantage doesn't mean anything. Going all-out to avoid the wild-card game makes sense, of course, but the playoffs are too much of a crapshoot to worry much about home-field advantage.

3. One team currently out of the playoffs will make it. My pick: the Indians.

OK, I actually have no idea. It could be the Baltimore Orioles or the Yankees. But we have about 32 games remaining, and checking the similar point in the schedule reveals we should see at least one team currently out of the playoff picture climb its way in. The NL seems pretty locked in with the Diamondbacks now seven games behind the Cincinnati Reds for the second wild card, although recent history (see list below) suggests even that isn't an impossible number.

So it's more likely to be an AL team, and nobody seems to be talking about the Indians, who are just 1½ behind the Oakland A's for the second wild card. They do have a tough road trip this week to Atlanta and Detroit and then a home series against Baltimore, but if they survive those nine games, their final seven series are against the Mets, Kansas City Royals, White Sox, Royals, Astros, White Sox and Minnesota Twins.

Question is: Do they catch the A's? Or do the A's catch the Texas Rangers for the AL West title and the Indians then catch the Rangers for the wild card?

2012 -- AL, one of five (Tigers came back from three behind White Sox); NL, none
2011 -- AL, one of four (Rays 8½ games from behind Red Sox); NL, one of four (Cardinals 9½ games from behind Braves)
2010 -- AL, none; NL, one of four (Giants from six behind the San Diego Padres)
2009 -- AL, one of four (Twins came from 4½ games behind Tigers); NL, none (Colorado Rockies were tied with the Giants)
2008 -- AL, none; NL, two of four (Phillies were a half-game behind the Mets, Dodgers from three games behind the Diamondbacks)

4. Max Scherzer will finish 23-1. I know -- and I know you know -- that win-loss records for starting pitchers are overrated and dependent, to a certain extent, on run support. Still, 23-1 would be pretty freakin' awesome, no matter how much you dislike pitcher wins. Scherzer is currently 19-1, which breaks the all-time single-season winning percentage currently held by Roy Face, who went 18-1 as a relief pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1959. The best winning percentage for a pitcher who won at least 20 games is Ron Guidry's .893 mark (25-3 record) with the Yankees in 1978.

Scherzer, of course, has received great run support, but he's also been amazingly consistent, never allowing more than five runs and allowing four or five runs just five times in 26 starts. That doesn't mean there hasn't been some good fortune; he's 3-1 in those five starts and is one of just three starters with three wins in such games (Erasmo Ramirez is 3-0 and Tommy Milone is 3-5). Patrick Corbin and Mat Latos, both 2-1, are the only others with at least two decisions who don't have a losing record.

Scherzer should get six more starts. Assuming the Tigers stick to a five-man rotation, giving Scherzer four or five days between starts, his remaining starts should line up like this … with predictions:

Thursday, Aug. 29: vs. A's (win)
Tuesday, Sept. 3: at Red Sox (no-decision)
Monday, Sept. 9: at White Sox (win)
Sunday, Sept. 15: vs. Royals (win)
Friday, Sept. 20: vs. White Sox (win)
Wednesday, Sept 25: at Twins (no-decision)

That final start could also be pushed to Friday, Sept. 27, putting Scherzer on track to start the first game of the postseason.

5. Miguel Cabrera versus Mike Trout: Here we go again. Well, sort of. In reality, this debate is stuck in three feet of mud and going nowhere. While Trout now leads Cabrera in both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs wins above replacemnet (WAR), Trout has no chance to win the AL MVP Award. This season would actually be a more interesting debate than last, when Trout was clearly the better -- and more valuable -- all-around player. The two major things that make this argument a nonstarter for voters: (A) The Angels haven't even sniffed the playoff races and (B) Cabrera is hitting .422 with an .867 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position.
6. Andrew McCutchen locks up the NL MVP Award with a big September. My vote would still go to Clayton Kershaw, but with just 13 wins, he's probably a long-shot MVP candidate for the voters. Look for McCutchen to finish strong and lead the Pirates to their first playoff trip since 1992, a storyline MVP voters will fall in love with.

7. Nobody will blame a mattress if they miss the playoffs. No crying in baseball, unless your team blows a nine-game lead in September.

8. Jon Lester leads the Red Sox to the AL East title. Clay Buchholz didn't pitch well in a rehab assignment on Sunday, throwing 38 pitches and walking three batters while recording just two outs. While Buchholz's return would bolster Boston's division title hopes if he pitches like he did the first two months -- over which he went 9-0 -- Lester has been doing his best pitching since before Boston's infamous September 2011 collapse. He's 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break, having allowed more than three runs only once and just three home runs. He's been throwing about nine more fastballs per start and fewer cutters, which is interesting because many analysts have suggested he fell in love with the cutter too much the past two seasons.

Anyway … Red Sox win the East, Rays win the wild card.

9. Tigers versus Dodgers in World Series. It the Year of Miggy. It's the Year of Kershaw. Maybe it's World Series destiny.

10. The World Series will go seven games. Kershaw versus Scherzer? Tie game in the ninth, Kershaw still pitching, Cabrera up …

I just wrote about the National League Rookie of the Year debate and one of the fun things about the players involved is their ages -- Yasiel Puig is 22, Jose Fernandez just turned 21, Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran are 22. These guys are already very good and still very young.

Last week, Joe Posnanski wrote about all the young talent in the majors today and pointed out we could end up with 13 or 14 players in their age 23-or-younger season who could end up with 3.0 WAR or higher. The "record" for this category, according to Posnanski (I assume he was searching on Baseball-Reference.com) was 1978, when 14 players did it. The catch: Joe was writing about position players only.

Topping the list would be Mike Trout, with Manny Machado, Andrelton Simmons, Jean Segura, Freddie Freeman, Puig and Nolan Arenado already above the 3.0 mark. Jason Heyward is at 2.9 and on a hot streak. Eric Hosmer is at 2.7 WAR. That's nine guys who should get there with Anthony Rizzo, Brett Lawrie, Salvador Perez, Jose Iglesias and Bryce Harper between 1.9 and 2.1 WAR. Wil Myers has 1.7 WAR in about two months of play. This list doesn't even include Giancarlo Stanton, still just 23, but having a disappointing season with 1.3 WAR after leading the National League in slugging percentage last season.

So that's a lot of young talent without even talking about the pitchers.

Anyway, Joe didn't mention all the 1978 guys in his piece, so I thought it would be interesting to check out that list and see what happened the rest of their careers. Indulge me as I revisit the players of my youth, when I first started watching baseball and kept baseball cards in shoe boxes, wrapped in rubber bands.

Jack Clark: 5.9 (52.9 career WAR)
Clark finished fifth in the 1978 NL MVP vote and became one of the best hitters of the '80s (sixth in OPS+ for the decade behind Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Pedro Guerrero and Darryl Strawberry). He couldn't stay healthy, however -- during his age 27-to-30 peak years he averaged just 96 games per season. Couldn't keep his mouth shut either. Still can't keep his mouth shut.

Willie Randolph 5.8 (65.6)
Underrated player due to his defense and walks; a borderline Hall of Fame candidate by his career WAR total but fell off the ballot after one year and would appear an unlikely Veterans Committee candidate.

Jason Thompson 5.6 (24.8)
The 23-year-old first baseman for the Tigers hit .287 with 26 home runs and walks and made his second All-Star team. Looked like he'd be a big star for a long time, but it didn't happen. After a slow start in 1980, the Tigers dumped him to the Angels for Al Cowens, and then after hitting .317/.439/.526 the rest of the season for the Angels, he was traded to the Pirates for Ed Ott and Mickey Mahler -- 29-year-old part-time catcher and nobody pitcher. The Pirates were then supposed to trade Thompson to the Yankees -- basically for $500,000 in cash -- but the commissioner vetoed that trade so he was stuck with Pittsburgh. Anyway, not sure why nobody wanted him. Defense? Bad breath? Not sure the story there. Made the All-Star team in 1982 but was done by age 31.

Ellis Valentine 5.5 (16.9)
Hit .289/.330/.489, 25 home runs, 35 doubles, won a Gold Glove thanks to his cannon arm. Part of the young Expos outfield with Andre Dawson and Warren Cromartie. Hit in the face by a pitch on May 30, 1980. They say he was never the same again ... except after returning in July he hit .331 the rest of the season. Injuries and drug and alcohol problems cut his career short after that, although he straightened himself out after his retirement from baseball.

Robin Yount: 5.0 (77.1)
Was just 22, but already in his fifth season in the majors after starting for Milwaukee at age 18. Would of course go on to win two MVP Awards and get elected to the Hall of Fame. Now, looking at his season you probably wouldn't have projected him as a Hall of Famer -- he hit .293 with nine home runs and 147 hits in 123 games. But a 22-year-old with ability can sometimes take a big leap forward and Young did that in 1980.

Chet Lemon 4.9 (55.3)
A superb defender in center, although he never won a Gold Glove Award. He hit .304/.386/.482 with the White Sox from 1978 to 1981, but after a trade to the Tigers for Steve Kemp never hit .300 again, even though he was just 27 at the time of the trade. He ranks eighth among position players in WAR during his 1977-1984 peak. Pretty underrated player.

Andre Dawson 4.7 (64.4)
In his second season, hit .253/.299/.442, but with 25 home runs, 28 steals and good defense. Here's a question: At that moment in time, would you rather have had Dawson or Valentine? Valentine had the better season and both were 23, but Dawson was faster and more athletic. Neither walked much, although Dawson struck out a lot more. I think it would have been a tough call.

Eddie Murray 4.3 (68.2)
Hit .283 with 27 home runs and 70 walks at age 22, good enough to finish eighth in the AL MVP vote.

Lou Whitaker: 3.8 (74.8)
The AL Rookie of the Year in 1978, he's a slam-dunk Hall of Famer if you go strictly by WAR. Hit just 12 home runs his first four seasons but eventually topped 20 four times. Effective enough into his late 30s that even in his final year he posted an .890 OPS in a platoon role with the Tigers.

Terry Puhl: 3.7 (28.4)
He was just 21 and hit .289 for the Astros with 32 steals, a few walks and was solid defensively. Never developed too much beyond that -- hitting home runs in the Astrodome was near impossible in those days anyways -- but he was a prototypical Astros outfielder of that period with good speed and the ability to hit for average.

Lee Mazzilli: 3.3 (15.4)
A pretty good player from 1978 to 1980, when he was the toast of a bad Mets franchise -- hailing from Brooklyn made him even more popular with the Mets' faithful. Hit a big home run in the 1979 All-Star Game. Started suffering back and elbow injuries and was never the same, although the Mets squeezed Ron Darling and Walt Terrell from the Rangers in a steal of a deal.

Steve Kemp: 3.3 (19.5)
Good hitter whose career was eventually derailed by injuries. The 1978 Tigers had Thompson, Whitaker and Kemp, plus 20-year-old Alan Trammell, 22-year-old Lance Parrish and 23-year-old Jack Morris. They won 86 games. It took them only six years from there to win a World Series.

Ozzie Smith 3.2 (76.5)
He hit .258 and swiped 40 bases to finish second in the NL Rookie of the Year vote to Bob Horner (who went straight from Arizona State to the majors). Ozzie's bat stalled for his next three years in San Diego before a trade to St. Louis -- and turf -- helped him become respectable at the plate.

Garry Templeton 3.0 (27.7)
Most career hits through age-24 season since 1970: Yount, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Cesar Cedeno, Edgar Renteria, Roberto Alomar, Miguel Cabrera, Templeton.

So that's the 14. It doesn't even include Trammell (2.8 WAR), Paul Molitor (2.7) or Carney Lansford (2.6).

You still hear a lot that players are rushed to the majors these days. There's no evidence this is actually true. In 1978, there were 21 players who were 23 or younger and batted at least 500 times and 27 who batted at least 300. In 2012, those figures were 14 and 20. In 1978, 28 pitchers 23 or younger reached 100 innings compared to 12 last year. There are reasons for this -- more guys go to college now (1978 was right before the boom in college baseball), some guys are now held back in the minors to save on service time, innings are limited and so on. But it's also because the talent level is a little higher than it was 35 years ago; there's less room for a 21-year-old kid to play regularly these days.

Not all these kids today will turn into stars ... but four of those 14 from 1978 did turn into Hall of Famers.

In case you missed it, the White Sox recently released Lars Anderson, who was hitting .194/.302/.251 in 66 games at Triple-A Charlotte. You may remember him as a highly rated prospect with the Red Sox; after hitting .317 with 18 home runs between Class A and Double-A in 2008 -- reaching Double-A at age 20 -- Baseball America ranked the first baseman as the No. 18 prospect in the minors before the 2009 season.

Anderson never developed from there, and although he received a couple sips of decaffeinated tea with the Red Sox, his professional career is now in jeopardy at the age of 25. Former major leaguer Gabe Kapler, who managed Anderson at Class A Greenville in 2007, had an interesting article on WEEI, titled: "Understanding Lars Anderson: A study in baseball makeup."

While raving about Anderson's approach and swing plane, Kapler ultimately attributes Anderson's struggles to a lack of confidence and belief in his own abilities. He compared Anderson to Josh Reddick, a teammate on that Greenvile team:

Josh Reddick, who hit in front of or behind him in the lineup, had an athletic attitude that I’d seen in every clubhouse I’d occupied. Josh thought nobody could beat him and if that they did, he’d win the next time. His was a self-fulfilling prophecy advantageous for a baseball player. For Lars, it seemed to work in the opposite manner.

The Reddick/Anderson study has some implications beyond confidence and mental toughness. While there is no question that Josh was the most assertive hitter I had in Greenville that year, he didn’t have a traditionally "smart" approach to hitting. He walked up to the plate, identified a ball he thought he could drive -- which was a pitch anywhere in the general vicinity of the state of South Carolina and at any speed — and swung as hard as he could.

It's a terrific insight into a player and Anderson himself says in the piece that he now has more confidence in his fielding than his hitting. But I also wonder if there's something else going on here. In a recent excerpt in Sports Illustrated from David Epstein's new book, "The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance," Epstein writes how the best hitters in the major leagues weren't able to hit softball pitcher Jennie Finch -- even though her fastball took about the same time to reach home plate as a 95-mph fastball.

In explaining Albert Pujols' failure to hit her, Epstein writes, "Since Pujols had no mental database of Finch's body movements, her pitch tendencies or even the spin of a softball, he could not predict what was coming, and he was left reacting at the last moment. And Pujols's simple reaction speed is downright quotidian. When scientists at Washington University in St. Louis tested him, perhaps the greatest hitter of his era was in the 66th percentile for simple reaction time compared with a random sample of college students."

Basically, it's not reaction time that makes Pujols or other major league hitters so good, but their experience in facing certain pitches and ability to read on opponents' body language and thus better anticipate, for example, if the pitch is a fastball or curveball or whatever. It's what makes hitting Mariano Rivera's cutter so difficult: It breaks so late compared to what hitters are used to that they can't anticipate the ultimate location of the pitch. Same thing with facing Finch.

As Epstein writes, "No one is born with the anticipatory skills required of an elite athlete."

In the case of Anderson, I wonder if the separation between him and Reddick isn't just confidence but that ability to anticipate or predict pitch patterns. Anderson had the better swing, the better approach and similar raw bat speed and power, and that was enough to get him through Class A ball, against mediocre breaking balls and mediocre fastballs. At higher levels, it takes more than a pretty swing. Maybe some guys are just "better" at somehow reading what the pitch is going to be. Reddick may have a poor approach and swings at too many pitches out of the strike zone, but he learned to anticipate the correct pitch often enough to become a major leaguer.

I see the same thing going on right now with Dustin Ackley of the Mariners. The raw ability is there -- he was the second overall pick in the draft -- but he looks completely confused at the plate -- unable, apparently, to successfully discern what the pitch is going to be, leading to him taking fastballs down the middle and being labeled passive by his organization. Some guys learn and get better with experience. Some players just have "it'; Kapler refers to a Pudge Rodriguez incident where Pudge couldn't even tell you what pitch he hit. Somehow, though, Rodriguez knew what was coming.

You can't teach that. And while Anderson is no doubt suffering from a crisis in confidence it could be that his brain just doesn't work at the level needed to be a major league hitter.

There’s never a better time to overreact than on the eve of the trade deadline! General managers, their assistants, their scouts, their special advisors and their stat geeks in the front office have spent weeks assessing their own talent and that of other organizations. But one night can change everything.

Some thoughts on Tuesday's news, rumors and game results ...

Who needs Jake Peavy when you have Brandon Workman! The Red Sox have won the Peavy Sweepstakes, although I don’t know if that means winning the lottery or cashing in your $10 prize at 7-Eleven. Peavy’s injury history (long) and home run issues (14 in 80 innings) make him a wild card acquisition; this isn’t the same thing as trading for Cliff Lee, or even close to trading for Cliff Lee.

Peavy, however, comes a lot cheaper. The Red Sox got to keep all their top prospects and surrendered only slick-fielding Jose Iglesias, who has a superficially good .330/.376/.406 batting line with the Red Sox in 215 at-bats. He’s not close to a .300 hitter, let alone a .330 hitter. A few weeks ago I looked at all his hits and they featured an unsustainable number of infield singles, five-hoppers that sneaked through and bloopers just over the heads of infielders. In July, he’s hitting .205 with one extra-base hit in 83 at-bats and he’s a career .244/.296/.292 hitter in Triple-A in nearly 1,000 plate appearances. But he can pick it at shortstop (or third base, where he’s been playing a lot for the Red Sox) and I suppose there’s a small chance that he could improve at the plate, a la Omar Vizquel.

So good job by Red Sox GM Ben Cherington to sell high on Iglesias, even if Peavy is more of a No. 3-4 starter than a 1 or 2. But acquiring Iglesias makes sense for the Tigers, who will likely see shortstop Jhonny Peralta get suspended any day now in the fallout from the Biogenesis investigation. Iglesias will be an improvement over Peralta on defense -- although Peralta’s minus-3 Defensive Runs Saved haven’t hurt the team as much Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, both rated at minus-10 at the corner infield spots.

The White Sox get Avisail Garcia in the deal, a player scouts like a lot but sabermetric types are skeptical about, due to a low walk rate in the minors. Still, if he puts it together, there’s a lot of upside there. Put me in the skeptical category; probably a big league regular, but I don’t foresee a star player.

The Braves can stand pat. When Detroit’s Alex Avila hit that grand slam off Stephen Strasburg as the Braves were crushing the Rockies, it seems a symbolic moment of the Nationals’ 2013 season to me. They’re now 10 games behind the Braves and the Braves only have seven games left against teams currently over .500. At least the Nationals won’t have to worry about Strasburg’s innings in October.

So the Braves don’t have to make a deal, plus Alex Wood’s strong outing against the Rockies means he should get a few more turns through the rotation. With Peavy off the market, there isn’t really a starter who is a guaranteed upgrade anyway, other than Cliff Lee and he’ll cost a fortune.

You don’t win division titles on paper. Ignore the run differentials. Ignore the recent histories. The Pirates now have the best record in baseball after sweeping Tuesday’s doubleheader and lead the NL Central. Not that the Cardinals organization ever panics or overreacts, but Cardinals fans are certainly tired of seeing Matt Holliday ground into double plays (he’s done that 24 times, giving him a chance to catch Jim Rice’s single-season record of 36) and some dude named Brandon Cumpton shut them down in the second game. Maybe the Cardinals do make a move.

The Pirates should still get a bat. This is one reason we love the trade deadline: When the Cubs signed Nate Schierholtz in the offseason for $2.25 million -- $29.75 million less than Josh Hamilton will make in 2016 and again in 2017 -- it wasn’t exactly headline news. Now he’s viewed as a must-have acquisition for the Pirates because he’s slugging over .500 and Pirates right fielders have the lowest OPS in the majors.

The Orioles should get a bat as well. Chris Davis did hit a big home run a 4-3 win over the Astros, but he and Manny Machado haven’t matched their first-half exploits. The bottom four hitters in Tuesday’s lineup had on-base percentages of .302, .295, .273 and .293. Their DHs are hitting .200. They should be able to find an upgrade. Getting a pitcher would be sexier -- well, if that pitcher were Cliff Lee -- but a hitter would add more depth to an already solid lineup.

Michael Young is great! Hey, forget that he has -0.6 WAR this season, he went 2-for-4 with a home run on Tuesday. His trade value just shot up. Plus he’s a veteran presence in the clubhouse! Warning: Has the range of a flower vase at third base. Beware of defensive risks if employing full time at the hot corner. The Rangers need a hitter, but at least in their case it would be to use Young at DH or first base.

Who needs a third baseman when you have Juan Uribe! Uribe hit a 441-foot home run off Andy Pettitte and is hitting a respectable .263/.335/.406. The Dodgers may do just as well playing Uribe as acquiring some of the lackluster options for third (Young, Aramis Ramirez) or acquiring a shortstop and moving Hanley Ramirez to third (he's hitting so well, don't mess with him right now).

The Indians have momentum (if momentum existed in baseball). They started nine guys on Tuesday and the guy batting ninth had the highest slugging percentage in the lineup. (That’s Yan Gomes, hitting .291 and slugging .520.) They’ve won six in row after rallying from a 3-0 deficit to beat the White Sox. They acquired Marc Rzepczynski from the Cardinals to add a second lefty to the bullpen but acquiring another starter or reliever would help.

Zack Wheeler is the second coming of Matt Harvey. This is one reason we love the trade deadline, part 2: The hope that the prospect your team acquires can turn into Zack Wheeler and flash the no-hit stuff like Wheeler did against the Marlins. Two years ago, the Mets got Wheeler from the Giants for Carlos Beltran. There may not be a Wheeler in this year's crop of trades -- there rarely are -- but you never know.

Cameron Diaz fed popcorn to Alex Rodriguez. Wait ... that didn’t happen on Tuesday? Ahh, those were simpler times.

Eric and myself check in on the trade deadline. Which teams need to make a move and what would we like to see? And where could Jake Peavy land if the White Sox deal him?

Throughout July we're going to present 30 deals in 30 days: the best trade deadline deal ever made by each team. We've covered the AL East, NL East and AL Central so far, and are now on the NL Central.

THE TEAM: Pittsburgh Pirates

THE YEAR: 1986

THE SITUATION: A once-proud franchise that had won six division titles in the 1970s (and two World Series), the Pirates had fallen on bad times by the mid-'80s -- the cocaine scandal that rocked baseball had been centered around Pittsburgh, with the Pirates' mascot serving as a dealer to the players. The team lost 104 games in 1985, leading to the firing of longtime skipper Chuck Tanner and the hiring of rookie skipper Jim Leyland. On July 22, the Pirates were 39-52, in last place in the NL East. The Chicago White Sox weren't much better at 42-50, but they were just 6.5 games behind the Angels in the AL West and looking for pitching help.

THE TRADE: The Pirates had originally signed Bobby Bonilla as an undrafted free agent in 1981. He reached Double-A in 1984 but then broke his leg in spring training of 1985 and missed most of the season. The Pirates left him off their 40-man roster in the offseason and the White Sox selected him in the Rule 5 draft. Bonilla was hitting .269/.371/.355 for the White Sox, but had just two home runs in 234 at-bats and didn't really have a regular position in the field. Unimpressed, the White Sox sent Bonilla back to the Pirates for pitcher Jose DeLeon, who had pitched well in 1983 and 1984 but went 2-19 in 1985 with a 4.70 ERA and had spent most of 1986 pitching in Triple-A.

THE AFTERMATH: DeLeon pitched well down the stretch for the White Sox, going 4-5 with a 2.96 ERA, but they finished 72-90. He went 11-12 the next season with a solid 4.02 ERA (115 ERA+) and was then traded to the Cardinals for Lance Johnson, who produced 21.2 WAR in eight seasons with the White Sox. Meanwhile, Bonilla's power began developing in 1987 (15 home runs) and from 1988 to 1991 would average 24 home runs and 102 RBIs, finishing second in the 1990 NL MVP vote and third in 1991 as the Pirates won the first two of three straight division titles.