SweetSpot: Cincinnati Reds
Have Reds benefited from easy schedule?
May, 21, 2013
May 21
8:25
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
This came up a couple times from readers in my chat session Tuesday, suggesting that the Cincinnati Reds may not be as strong as their 27-18 record because they've had an easy schedule so far, in particular compared to the Cardinals and Braves.
Indeed, if you go to our RPI rankings, you can see strength of schedule. Here are average winning percentages of opponents played:
Cardinals: .515 (sixth)
Braves: .504 (11th)
Reds: .484 (24th)
So the Reds have played an easier schedule. But what's the difference between a .515 winning percentage and .484? Over 162 games, we're talking about an 83-win team on average versus a 78-win team, so while the Reds have played an easier slate than the Cardinals -- Cincinnati has played the Marlins seven times, for example, while St. Louis is yet to play them -- I don't see it as a huge benefit. An advantage? Yes.
You can twist it the other way and point out that the Reds have played the Nationals seven times and the Cardinals three, or the Cardinals have played the Brewers 10 times while the Reds have played them just three.
Plus, as Reds fans in the chat were quick to point out, the Reds have played most of the season without ace Johnny Cueto (who returned Monday night), without a left fielder and with Dusty Baker screwing up the No. 2 slot in the batting order.
Of course, one of those three things is self-imposed.
Indeed, if you go to our RPI rankings, you can see strength of schedule. Here are average winning percentages of opponents played:
Cardinals: .515 (sixth)
Braves: .504 (11th)
Reds: .484 (24th)
So the Reds have played an easier schedule. But what's the difference between a .515 winning percentage and .484? Over 162 games, we're talking about an 83-win team on average versus a 78-win team, so while the Reds have played an easier slate than the Cardinals -- Cincinnati has played the Marlins seven times, for example, while St. Louis is yet to play them -- I don't see it as a huge benefit. An advantage? Yes.
You can twist it the other way and point out that the Reds have played the Nationals seven times and the Cardinals three, or the Cardinals have played the Brewers 10 times while the Reds have played them just three.
Plus, as Reds fans in the chat were quick to point out, the Reds have played most of the season without ace Johnny Cueto (who returned Monday night), without a left fielder and with Dusty Baker screwing up the No. 2 slot in the batting order.
Of course, one of those three things is self-imposed.
Chat wrap: Cubs, Rivera, surprises, more!
May, 21, 2013
May 21
4:05
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
One reader called it "epic." I don't know about that, but it was a two-and-a-half hour marathon chat session
Mariners pair top 1-2 pitching duo in majors
May, 21, 2013
May 21
12:20
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Major league baseball is so deep in quality starting pitching that you could probably make the case for nine or 10 different combinations as the best pair going right now. Here are my top five:
1. Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
This may surprise you, but Hernandez and Iwakuma have the highest WAR (wins above replacement) of any pair of pitchers in the majors. And before we write off Iwakuma's outstanding start to the season as a fluke, here are the American League ERA leaders going back to last July 1, when Iwakuma joined the Mariners' rotation:
Iwakuma: 2.54
Hernandez: 2.69
Justin Verlander: 2.77
James Shields: 2.86
Hiroki Kuroda: 2.97
So the M's have Hernandez, one of the best pitchers in baseball, a guy who has pitched 230-plus innings the past four seasons and who has been as effective as any starter in the game for nearly a year. And they have Iwakuma, who will give up some home runs, but he's walked only 11 batters in 10 starts and his splitter has turned into a wipeout pitch -- batters are hitting .184 off it with one home run, 35 strikeouts and two walks in 79 plate appearances ending with the pitch. If the Mariners fall out of the wild-card race, maybe they'll look to trade Iwakuma while his stock is high, but I fear that would be a mistake and they would be making a Doug Fister-like trade that backfires. Iwakuma is for real.
2. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez, Tigers
The Tigers' rotation is so good that you could also slot Fister or Max Scherzer here and have an equally terrific duo. I still like Scherzer as the club's No. 2 as the season progresses, but Sanchez has been terrific so far and has ramped up his strikeout rate to new highs, up more than 9 percent from last season (68 in 55.1 innings). His ERA is 2.77, and while his home run rate is probably unsustainable (just two allowed), his BABIP is too high on the other end at .356. Moving forward, those two results should cancel each other out as they normalize and Sanchez should remain outstanding.
3. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, Dodgers
Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game right now -- he's gone 22 consecutive starts allowing three earned runs or fewer, the longest such streak since Pedro Martinez had 23 in 1999-2000 -- and Greinke would be the ace of many teams. Now that Greinke is back from his broken collarbone, we'll see if everyone has written off the Dodgers too quickly.
4. CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees
Somehow, Kuroda still flies under the radar despite playing in New York. He's not flashy, but batters are hitting .201 AVG/.254 OBP/.292 SLG against him. There's some luck going on here since his .229 BABIP will probably rise, but his slider has been untouchable: opponents are 8-for-61 (.131) against it without an extra-base hit. Meanwhile, Sabathia has lost some velocity off his fastball, but he pitches down in the zone more, throws strikes and keeps the Yankees in games. Since his pitch counts have run high at times he's averaging only 6.5 innings per start, so maybe his days as a 230-inning workhorse are over (he missed a few starts last year, remember, and pitched just 200 innings). Remember as well that these guys have to pitch half their games at Yankee Stadium, where routine fly balls can land in the right-field stands.
5. Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Yes, young guns Shelby Miller and Matt Harvey have seemingly pushed Strasburg out of the limelight, but he's still pretty good and still throws hard (best average fastball velocity among starting pitchers). Nonetheless, he's been surpassed by Zimmermann as the club's ace. Zimmerman doesn't rack up the huge strikeout totals so the advanced metrics like FIP and xFIP suggest his ERA will rise (well, it will, since it's at 1.62 right now). But he throws strikes with Maddux-like precision (nine walks in nine starts) and while there were concerns heading into the season about his ability to go deep into games, his efficiency has allowed him to toss three complete games without throwing more than 107 pitches. He's 7-2 and could be 9-0 -- in the two games he lost, he allowed two runs.
That's my top five, and I couldn't find room for Adam Wainwright and Miller, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, Chris Sale and Jake Peavy, Matt Moore and David Price, Matt Harvey and anybody. It's a pitcher's game right now, that's for sure.
I don't know where this post is going, but wherever it leads, it's not meant to rip on Brandon Phillips, if it does wind up sounding negative. Reds fans jumped on me a few weeks ago when I called Phillips overrated, and that's fine: Fans should defend their players, especially the good ones, and Phillips is an excellent player and has been since 2007. Just because I called him overrated doesn't mean I don't like Phillips as a player: I do.
Phillips Anyway, right now Phillips is second in the National League to Troy Tulowitzki with 36 RBIs. He's having a great season, right? RBIs are king! He sort of said as much to Eric Karabell in this post:
With seven home runs, Phillips is on pace for a few more home runs than last year, but his batting line remains relatively unchanged from 2011 and 2012, when he drove in 82 and 77 runs -- years when he did spend a lot of time batting cleanup (55 starts in 2011, 73 last year), but not regularly like he's done this year. His triple-slash lines:
2011: .300/.353/.457
2012: .281/.321/.429
2013: .281/.323/.468
Now, one reason Phillips has driven in 37 runs is he has Shin-Soo Choo hitting leadoff and Joey Votto hitting third in front of him, and they are first (Votto) and third (Choo) in the majors in on-base percentage. The Reds have received poor production from the No. 2 spot in the lineup -- their collective .265 OBP is 28th in the majors -- but Phillips has still hit with the second-most runners on base of any player in the majors. Here are the top five, according to Baseball Prospectus:
Prince Fielder, Tigers: 150
Brandon Phillips, Reds: 149
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 148
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: 147
Justin Morneau, Twins: 146
To drive in a lot of runs you need runners on base. Now, Phillips has hit exceptionally well when runners are on and deserves credit there -- .318 with men on and .432 with runners in scoring position. His RBI total is still somewhat a reflection of how often Choo and Votto have been on base, however: His percentage of "others driven in" (percentage of runners on base driven in) is 20.1 percent; among players with 75 plate appearances that ranks 29th (Ryan Zimmerman is first at 26.8 percent).
What's interesting is that it appears Phillips changes his approach a bit with runners in scoring position. He's hit just one run home run in 58 plate appearances, as he seems to focus more on getting the ball in play and getting base hits. With the bases empty he's hit five home runs in 87 plate appearances, but is hitting just .244. Here, the stat lines:
RISP: .432/.474/.591, 7 BB, 8 SO
Empty: .244/.253/.465, 1 BB, 15 SO
He strikes out slightly less (14 percent versus 17 percent) but the walk rate is much better (one of those seven was intentional) with runners on. Phillips says he's a free swinger; well, that's kind of true. With the bases empty, his chase percentage on pitches outside the strike zone is 41 percent; but with RISP it's just 27 percent. Phillips has been better with RISP because he limits his free-swinging habits.
This could just be small sample size results going on here. In 2011-12, for example, his chase percentage with RISP was 34 percent and with the bases empty 37 percent. But if he does manage to maintain this approach, and keep his free-swinging ways to a minimum, he'll continue to drive in a lot of runs.
Now, if only Dusty Baker could find a decent No. 2 hitter imagine how many runs Phillips may knock in.
"My job now is to get RBI, it's my No. 1 thing," said Phillips, who is getting so many of them that he's one off the NL lead, and remains on pace for 133 of them. "That's my goal, to get 100. When I hit fourth that's my job. I don't really worry about my batting average or my on-base percentage, it's just getting the guy in [to score]. Having that approach has been working so far. I'm a free swinger. I like hitting fourth. It's fun. Your job is to do one job."
With seven home runs, Phillips is on pace for a few more home runs than last year, but his batting line remains relatively unchanged from 2011 and 2012, when he drove in 82 and 77 runs -- years when he did spend a lot of time batting cleanup (55 starts in 2011, 73 last year), but not regularly like he's done this year. His triple-slash lines:
2011: .300/.353/.457
2012: .281/.321/.429
2013: .281/.323/.468
Now, one reason Phillips has driven in 37 runs is he has Shin-Soo Choo hitting leadoff and Joey Votto hitting third in front of him, and they are first (Votto) and third (Choo) in the majors in on-base percentage. The Reds have received poor production from the No. 2 spot in the lineup -- their collective .265 OBP is 28th in the majors -- but Phillips has still hit with the second-most runners on base of any player in the majors. Here are the top five, according to Baseball Prospectus:
Prince Fielder, Tigers: 150
Brandon Phillips, Reds: 149
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 148
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: 147
Justin Morneau, Twins: 146
To drive in a lot of runs you need runners on base. Now, Phillips has hit exceptionally well when runners are on and deserves credit there -- .318 with men on and .432 with runners in scoring position. His RBI total is still somewhat a reflection of how often Choo and Votto have been on base, however: His percentage of "others driven in" (percentage of runners on base driven in) is 20.1 percent; among players with 75 plate appearances that ranks 29th (Ryan Zimmerman is first at 26.8 percent).
What's interesting is that it appears Phillips changes his approach a bit with runners in scoring position. He's hit just one run home run in 58 plate appearances, as he seems to focus more on getting the ball in play and getting base hits. With the bases empty he's hit five home runs in 87 plate appearances, but is hitting just .244. Here, the stat lines:
RISP: .432/.474/.591, 7 BB, 8 SO
Empty: .244/.253/.465, 1 BB, 15 SO
He strikes out slightly less (14 percent versus 17 percent) but the walk rate is much better (one of those seven was intentional) with runners on. Phillips says he's a free swinger; well, that's kind of true. With the bases empty, his chase percentage on pitches outside the strike zone is 41 percent; but with RISP it's just 27 percent. Phillips has been better with RISP because he limits his free-swinging habits.
This could just be small sample size results going on here. In 2011-12, for example, his chase percentage with RISP was 34 percent and with the bases empty 37 percent. But if he does manage to maintain this approach, and keep his free-swinging ways to a minimum, he'll continue to drive in a lot of runs.
Now, if only Dusty Baker could find a decent No. 2 hitter imagine how many runs Phillips may knock in.
A quick warning about Jurickson Profar's call to the majors to replace the disabled Ian Kinsler: Do not expect Mike Trout; do not expect Bryce Harper; do not expect Manny Machado.
Yes, the performance of those three wunderkinds has, unfortunately, raised the expectations for all prospects, especially one deemed the best in the game entering this season.
In time, maybe Profar joins them as generational talents (I can see the corny nickname already: "The Four Tops"), but it would be unfair to believe Profar will hit like they have, at least right off the bat. Remember, he's only 20, and, while he held his own in Triple-A, hitting .278/.370/.438 with four home runs, HE'S ONLY 20 YEARS OLD. Most 20 year olds are still learning how to hit curveballs in the South Atlantic League.
That said, I'm excited to see the kid play for a couple weeks. While Profar didn't start Sunday and Ron Washington said he'll split time with Leury Garcia, I'm not sure the Rangers recalled Profar to play three games a week. Profar has a good approach at the plate, particularly for a kid so young, drawing 21 walks in 37 games at Round Rock, so that's a good sign that he'll come up to the majors and not get in trouble by being overly aggressive. And, as Washington likes to say, "He's not afraid of the game."
Kinsler had been one of the best players in the league so far, hitting .302 with seven home runs, 20 RBIs and 24 runs, so the Rangers will miss his production from the leadoff spot. But they have a comfortable lead in the AL West and there was no reason to push him through the injury.
Profar is likely headed back to Triple-A once Kinsler's DL stint ends. Of course, who knows, maybe Profar hits so well he leaves the Rangers no choice but to find a regular spot for him. I don't think that will happen, but I wouldn't be that eager to bet against him, either.
REST OF THE WEEKEND
Three stars
1. Matt Joyce, Tampa Bay Rays. Down 4-0 after one inning to the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, Joyce hit a two-run homer in the third to get the Rays closer and then hit a two-run, go-ahead double in the ninth. On Sunday, Joyce's homer provided the insurance run in a 3-1 win as the Rays swept the O's.
2. Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies. The Rockies had many heroes in winning three of four against the San Francisco Giants at home, but Fowler jumpstarted the offense all weekend with 10 hits and seven runs scored. Not a bad four days: He raised his average from .252 to .286.
3. Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians. Masterson tossed his second consecutive scoreless start, striking out a season-high 11 in seven innings against the Seattle Mariners on Sunday in a 6-0 victory. Masterson improved to 7-2 while lowering his ERA to 2.83. This is a different Masterson than we've seen the past couple seasons, with a much higher strikeout rate (25 percent versus 18 percent last season) but still keeping the home runs to a minimum (just three). While he's struggled in the past against left-handers, he's held them to a .226 average this season with a 36/19 K/BB ratio compared to 72/56 in 2012. And it's not all batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is a fairly normal .285 so far. If he keeps getting lefties out, he's going to keep winning games.
Honorable mention star of the weekend
Have to mention Joey Votto for getting on base all six times in Saturday's win for the Cincinnati Reds -- he went 4-for-4 with two walks, a double and a home run. Only two players had a "6-for-6" day last season -- Aaron Hill of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Neil Walker of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both went 5-for-5 with a walk and, like Votto, doubled and homered.
One more honorable mention star of the weekend
The Diamondbacks beat the Miami Marlins on Saturday as Brandon McCarthy pitched the three-hit shutout (no save!), but he had a lot of help from Gerardo Parra, who led off the game with this on the first pitch and then did this in the bottom of the first. Parra has one of the better arms in the majors, but his bat is a big reason the D-backs are in first place, as he's hitting .320/.385/.494 with 28 runs (11th in the NL). That batting line, combined with his outstanding defense, has Parra leading the NL in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), tied with Matt Harvey and Clayton Kershaw, at 3.1. Justin who?
Clutch performance of the weekend
Atlanta Braves rookie Evan Gattis keeps finding a way to get himself into the highlights. On Saturday, he pinch hit in the eighth inning against hard-throwing Kenley Jansen of the Los Angeles Dodgers with the Braves down 1-0 and a runner on and did this on a 2-2 fastball. The best part of the highlight is Freddie Freeman's "I don't believe that" reaction in the dugout.
The Dodgers bullpen, meanwhile, continues to implode. They followed Saturday's loss with another one on Sunday, giving up four runs in the eighth in a 5-2 loss. It has 13 losses, three more than any other team, and its 4.61 ERA is better only than the New York Mets and Houston Astros.
Unclutch performance of the weekend
Aroldis Chapman, step on down. Chapman entered with a 2-1 lead on Sunday and walked Delmon Young with one out. That was bad enough, but Cliff Lee pinch ran for Delmon (yes, a guy who plays the outfield regularly got run for by a pitcher) and got picked off for the second out of the inning. Game over, right? Nope. Erik Kratz homered on a 3-2, 98 mph heater. And then Freddy Galvis -- Freddy Galvis! -- hit the dramatic walk-off home run off a 95 mph fastball.
Best game
OK, it's pretty difficult to top that one. There were some wild games this weekend -- Tampa beat Baltimore 12-10 on Friday, the Indians gave up two home runs in the ninth to Seattle on Saturday only to win in the bottom of the inning -- but Friday's Washington Nationals-San Diego Padres game was a tough one for San Diego. Adam LaRoche homered twice off rookie Burch Smith, but the Padres tied it with two runs in the bottom of the ninth off Rafael Soriano -- with the help of another Ryan Zimmerman throwing error. (A situation that's becoming a serious problem for the Nationals, as that's nine errors for Zimmerman with his fielding percentage a Mark Reynolds-like .897.) Anyway, Chad Tracy hit a pinch-hit homer off Huston Street in the 10th to give the Nats a 6-5 win. That's already six home runs allowed for Street, whose trade value is shrinking with each home run.
Hitter on the rise: Jason Kipnis, Indians
He had a three-run, walk-off home run in the 10th inning on Friday and two hits on Saturday and Sunday, giving him nine in his past four games, all Cleveland victories. The Indians are 17-4 since April 28 and Kipnis has hit .305 with seven home runs and 21 RBIs in the 20 games he's played. He won't start the All-Star Game with Robinson Cano in the American League, and the AL is loaded at second base with Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Kipnis at the All-Star Game.
Pitcher on the rise: Jeff Locke, Pirates
I'm not necessarily buying, but the lefty is now 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA after tossing seven scoreless innings on Sunday against the Astros in a 1-0 win. His K/BB ratio is a pedestrian 32/22, but opponents are hitting just .219 off him, thanks to a .230 BABIP. With that number likely to rise, Locke will need to record a few more whiffs to maintain success close to this level. Still, that's three scoreless outings this season and one did come against the Cardinals. Even though he's not this good, if he can give the Pirates 175 solid innings as a No. 4 starter, they'll take it.
Team on the rise: Pirates
The Pirates took two of three from the Astros to improve to 11-6 in May and 26-18 overall. They're second in the majors in ERA, and it's not necessarily a huge fluke as they're third in strikeouts. One thing to keep an eye on: Only the hapless Astros have needed more innings from their bullpen, so while the Pittsburgh crew has been outstanding, the workload is a possible concern down the road.
Team on the fall: Dodgers
The two bright spots this week were Zack Greinke's return and Matt Kemp's great catch on Saturday, but three losses in Atlanta reiterated that this isn't just a team ravaged by injuries: It's a bad team with a bad bullpen that finds ways to lose. Manager Don Mattingly said not to blame the bullpen. "You add on a run here or there, it takes a lot of pressure off a guy that you can't give up one hit that changes the whole game. I think we have to take this all as a group."
OK, then, we'll call it a team effort of a team on the fall.
Four of the AL East teams will be facing off head-to-head this mid-May weekend, with the Tampa Bay Rays traveling to Baltimore and the mighty Vernon Wells-led New York Yankees hosting the last-place-but-hot Toronto Blue Jays. The other team is the Boston Red Sox, hoping to gain ground playing the Minnesota Twins after an exciting win against Tampa Bay on Thursday night. This is the lone division in which four of five teams are at .500 or better, so which team is on the hot seat? It's the team that isn't .500, Toronto. The Jays have won four in a row, making Yankee Stadium a very interesting place this weekend, especially when initialed Cy Young winners R.A. Dickey and CC Sabathia face off Sunday afternoon!
Here are some other things to keep an eye on:
1. Best of the rest: With Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish having opened the Detroit Tigers-Texas Rangers series Thursday night by allowing a combined 12 runs (eight by Verlander), the pitching should improve as the Tigers will throw Anibal Sanchez and Doug Fister out there, and they're thriving with a composite 2.54 ERA and two home runs allowed in more than 100 innings. The Rangers can't match that, but keep an eye on the Sunday night ESPN matchup when lefty Derek Holland faces Fister. The big two of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are hitless in eight at-bats against Holland, while Fister has been torched by David Murphy for four home runs in 18 at-bats.
2. Who's back? The Tigers might think the division is simply theirs to lose, but Terry Francona's Cleveland Indians continue to score many runs and get good enough pitching to have won 14 of 18 games. The Seattle Mariners come to the Lake and will first get to see if right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez is really back. I'm skeptical. OK, so that's not accurate: I don't believe it. Jimenez and his new, consistent mechanics have looked good the past three outings, having permitted three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. The strikeout rate looks nice, too. I still want to see more. Felix Hernandez is scheduled to start Sunday after leaving his Yankee Stadium outing this week prematurely with back spasms. If the M's lose him, well, forget it.
3. Hello, Coors! Likewise, the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies opened their four-game set Thursday night with aces on the hill and many runs scored, and the bloated ERA of the defending champions isn't likely to look any better after a thin-air weekend in Denver. With Ryan Vogelsong struggling and perhaps soon to be replaced, many eyes will be on inconsistent Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito, scheduled to start Saturday and Sunday. Each hurler has been all or nothing this season; in 16 combined starts split evenly, 10 of them have featured two or fewer runs. The other outings have been considerably worse. The Rockies sure do hit at home, so watch out.
4. Hey, hey, hey! The first-place Atlanta Braves could get right fielder Jason Heyward back from the DL as soon as Friday for their series opener with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and they expect him to hit considerably better than his current .121 batting average. Of course, their outfielder problems don't end there. The Braves have been using either catcher Evan Gattis in left field or a Jordan Schafer/Reed Johnson platoon, but Heyward is an obvious upgrade. As for the Brothers Upton, B.J. is hitting .145. That's not a misprint. MVP candidate Justin is hitting .156 over his past nine home games. The Braves could fall out of first place with a bad weekend.
5. Tony Be Good: Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani is scheduled to start in Philadelphia on Friday night, and no matter what the hotshot rookie does he could be headed back to the minor leagues. The team's ace right-hander Johnny Cueto is to come off the disabled list Monday, and manager Dusty Baker has already given the vote of confidence to right-hander Mike Leake, who held the powerful Miami Marlins offense scoreless this week. Sorry, Tony, your 2-0 record with a 2.89 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 28 innings is impressive, but hope you kept that apartment in Louisville. There's just no room in the rotation, so enjoy Friday night.
Have a great weekend!
Here are some other things to keep an eye on:
1. Best of the rest: With Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish having opened the Detroit Tigers-Texas Rangers series Thursday night by allowing a combined 12 runs (eight by Verlander), the pitching should improve as the Tigers will throw Anibal Sanchez and Doug Fister out there, and they're thriving with a composite 2.54 ERA and two home runs allowed in more than 100 innings. The Rangers can't match that, but keep an eye on the Sunday night ESPN matchup when lefty Derek Holland faces Fister. The big two of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are hitless in eight at-bats against Holland, while Fister has been torched by David Murphy for four home runs in 18 at-bats.
2. Who's back? The Tigers might think the division is simply theirs to lose, but Terry Francona's Cleveland Indians continue to score many runs and get good enough pitching to have won 14 of 18 games. The Seattle Mariners come to the Lake and will first get to see if right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez is really back. I'm skeptical. OK, so that's not accurate: I don't believe it. Jimenez and his new, consistent mechanics have looked good the past three outings, having permitted three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. The strikeout rate looks nice, too. I still want to see more. Felix Hernandez is scheduled to start Sunday after leaving his Yankee Stadium outing this week prematurely with back spasms. If the M's lose him, well, forget it.
3. Hello, Coors! Likewise, the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies opened their four-game set Thursday night with aces on the hill and many runs scored, and the bloated ERA of the defending champions isn't likely to look any better after a thin-air weekend in Denver. With Ryan Vogelsong struggling and perhaps soon to be replaced, many eyes will be on inconsistent Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito, scheduled to start Saturday and Sunday. Each hurler has been all or nothing this season; in 16 combined starts split evenly, 10 of them have featured two or fewer runs. The other outings have been considerably worse. The Rockies sure do hit at home, so watch out.
4. Hey, hey, hey! The first-place Atlanta Braves could get right fielder Jason Heyward back from the DL as soon as Friday for their series opener with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and they expect him to hit considerably better than his current .121 batting average. Of course, their outfielder problems don't end there. The Braves have been using either catcher Evan Gattis in left field or a Jordan Schafer/Reed Johnson platoon, but Heyward is an obvious upgrade. As for the Brothers Upton, B.J. is hitting .145. That's not a misprint. MVP candidate Justin is hitting .156 over his past nine home games. The Braves could fall out of first place with a bad weekend.
5. Tony Be Good: Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani is scheduled to start in Philadelphia on Friday night, and no matter what the hotshot rookie does he could be headed back to the minor leagues. The team's ace right-hander Johnny Cueto is to come off the disabled list Monday, and manager Dusty Baker has already given the vote of confidence to right-hander Mike Leake, who held the powerful Miami Marlins offense scoreless this week. Sorry, Tony, your 2-0 record with a 2.89 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 28 innings is impressive, but hope you kept that apartment in Louisville. There's just no room in the rotation, so enjoy Friday night.
Have a great weekend!
I made a quick point about Cubs starter Travis Wood in an earlier post. As Jedi Johnson points out on the View From the Bleachers blog, Wood has eight quality starts in eight chances this year and while he's topped 100 pitches just twice, he's still averaging over six innings per start.
Look, Wood isn't going to sustain a 2.03 ERA. His batting average allowed is .169 and his average on balls in play is .189, which is historically unsustainable. The question: How much will he regress? I heard Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette discussing Wood on MLB Network Radio this morning and Mike made a great point on how Wood survives even though he throws few offspeed pitches. Indeed, according to ESPN Stats & Info date, of the 766 pitches Wood has thrown this year, 295 have been fastballs and 275 cut fastballs -- 74 percent of his total pitches. Wood has a changeup that he thrown about four times per game and a slider he throws a little more frequently, neither of which is considered more than an average pitch. He's basically a fastball/cutter guy.
Mike and Jim wondered if he could succeed with this repertoire (and thought he could). Conventional wisdom certainly suggests this will be difficult, that starters need to mix in some sort of effective offspeed weapon. I thought: Mariano Rivera has made a pretty nice living throwing almost one pitch exclusively. No, I'm not comparing Wood to Rivera, but why can't Wood make this work? Why can't he be some lesser version of Rivera, just for six or seven innings at a time instead of one?
Reds rookie Tony Cingrani, off to a 2-0, 2.89 ERA in five starts, with 37 strikeouts and seven walks in 28 innings, is another lefty relying on fastballs. He's thrown 493 pitches -- and 412 fastballs (84 percent). He doesn't throw a cutter, but merely changes speeds and has more velocity than Wood. Like Wood, there is some deception in the delivery and he's a flyball pitcher (which leads to a lower BABIP).
I don't know how good Wood is, and he's never going to be a workhorse with his slight stature. But I think there's a good chance he's developing into a solid mid-rotation starter, one who will beat the 4.17 ERA he posted in 2012.
Look, Wood isn't going to sustain a 2.03 ERA. His batting average allowed is .169 and his average on balls in play is .189, which is historically unsustainable. The question: How much will he regress? I heard Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette discussing Wood on MLB Network Radio this morning and Mike made a great point on how Wood survives even though he throws few offspeed pitches. Indeed, according to ESPN Stats & Info date, of the 766 pitches Wood has thrown this year, 295 have been fastballs and 275 cut fastballs -- 74 percent of his total pitches. Wood has a changeup that he thrown about four times per game and a slider he throws a little more frequently, neither of which is considered more than an average pitch. He's basically a fastball/cutter guy.
Mike and Jim wondered if he could succeed with this repertoire (and thought he could). Conventional wisdom certainly suggests this will be difficult, that starters need to mix in some sort of effective offspeed weapon. I thought: Mariano Rivera has made a pretty nice living throwing almost one pitch exclusively. No, I'm not comparing Wood to Rivera, but why can't Wood make this work? Why can't he be some lesser version of Rivera, just for six or seven innings at a time instead of one?
Reds rookie Tony Cingrani, off to a 2-0, 2.89 ERA in five starts, with 37 strikeouts and seven walks in 28 innings, is another lefty relying on fastballs. He's thrown 493 pitches -- and 412 fastballs (84 percent). He doesn't throw a cutter, but merely changes speeds and has more velocity than Wood. Like Wood, there is some deception in the delivery and he's a flyball pitcher (which leads to a lower BABIP).
I don't know how good Wood is, and he's never going to be a workhorse with his slight stature. But I think there's a good chance he's developing into a solid mid-rotation starter, one who will beat the 4.17 ERA he posted in 2012.
Weekend wrap: Is Jose Bautista back?
May, 13, 2013
May 13
1:55
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
In April, Jose Bautista had turned into a three true outcomes type of player: home run, walk or strikeout. He hit seven home runs and had a slugging percentage over .500, but was hitting just .200.
Was he just finding his stroke as he returned from last year's injury problems? Or was he no longer the MVP-caliber hitter of 2010 and 2011, when he hit 54 and 43 home runs, drew walks, and hit .260 and then .302?
He hit his first two home runs of May on Sunday in a 12-4 pasting of the Red Sox to raise his overall batting to .246/.360/.544 -- respectable, if not quite 2011-level Bautista. And the Blue Jays need 2011-level Bautista if they have any hope of recovering from their awful start.
I'm not quite sure he's there yet. While Bautista can crush any fastball -- he's hitting .333 with six home runs in 51 at-bats ending with a fastball this season -- it was his production against "soft" stuff that allowed him to hit above .300 in 2011. Check out these two charts on his batting average against soft stuff in 2011, and then the past two seasons:
ESPN Stats & InformationIn 2011, Bautista hit .291/.415/.591 with 16 home runs against soft stuff.
ESPN Stats & Information Over the past two seasons, Bautista has hit just .180/.326/.365 against soft stuff.As you can see, that's a lot of red (hot) in 2011 and a lot of blue (cold) since. This year, he's 7-for-51 (.137) with three home runs against soft stuff. He split his home runs on Sunday -- one came off a first-pitch Ryan Dempster fastball, the other off an 0-1 83 mph slider from Clayton Mortensen. Bautista is a dead pull hitter -- only one home run to center and one to right-center over the past two seasons -- which can leave him vulnerable to breaking stuff on the outside part of the plate.
I haven't seen enough evidence that he's going to punish those pitches like he did a couple years ago, so I would guess he'll be prone to ups and downs throughout the season. He's still a huge threat at the plate, but not the MVP bat of 2011.
REST OF THE WEEKEND
Three stars
1. Shelby Miller, Cardinals. One hit. Twenty-seven down. In a 3-0 win over the Rockies on Friday, the St. Louis rookie became the fifth pitcher since 1961 to allow the first batter to reach base and then retire 27 in a row, joining John Lackey (2006 Angels), Jerry Reuss (1982 Dodgers), Jim Bibby (1981 Pirates) and Woodie Fryman (1966 Pirates). Miller had the Rockies guessing wrong -- or merely looking -- all night long, as he got 30 called strikes, the second-most by a starter this season. Eight of those closed out Miller's 13 strikeouts. Just a dominant performance. In fact, for all the attention given to Matt Harvey this year, compare the two young right-handers:
Miller: 5-2, 1.58 ERA, 45.2 IP, 29 H, 3 HR, 11 BB, 51 SO, .179 AVG
Harvey: 4-0, 1.44 ERA, 56.1 IP, 27 H, 3 HR, 14 BB, 62 SO, .142 AVG
2. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals. Not to be outdone, Wainwright took a no-hitter into the eighth inning on Saturday, finishing with a two-hit shutout in another 3-0 win for the Cards. Wainwright improved to 5-2 with a 2.30 ERA and had strong words about his rookie teammate: "You follow Roger Clemens a couple times like I have been, it makes you focus a little bit more," he said. "Once you see Shelby mow through a lineup like he has all year, you want to go out there and do it, too." Kudos also to Cards manager Mike Matheny for leaving in Miller to throw 113 pitches, and Wainwright to throw 120. In this day when managers are too willing to yank starters at 100 pitches, it is good to see a manager let his guys go the distance.
3. Chris Sale, White Sox, and Jon Lester, Red Sox. Two more one-hit shutouts, Lester on Friday, Sale on Sunday. Can't anyone here hit anymore? Lester got 12 ground-ball outs as he joined Pedro Martinez (2000), Hideo Nomo (2001), Curt Schilling (2007) and Josh Beckett (2011) as Red Sox pitchers to throw a one-hit, no-walk shutout in the live ball era. But Sale threw his wearing the so-ugly-they're-cool 1983 throwback uniforms.
Clutch performance of the weekend
Evan Longoria, for his two-out, two-run, bottom-of-the-ninth home run to give the Rays a dramatic 8-7 win over the Padres on Saturday. My favorite part: There's some sort of picnic area in left-center (yes, "picnic area" and "domed stadium" is kind of an oxymoron) where the ball landed, and it looks like half the fans out there didn't realize it was a game-winning home run.
First off, credit Ben Zobrist for a drawing the two-out walk on a 3-2 pitch from Huston Street, working back from a 1-2 count. Street knew that was the batter he had to get. "You get him 1-2, you've got to make a pitch," he said. "I'm frustrated about that just as much as leaving a pitch to Longoria in the middle of the plate." The Rays had led 6-2 before the Padres scored five in the seventh, leading Joe Maddon to say it would have been one of Tampa's worst three losses of the year. "But you can't go to the dance playing like that. When you get leads, you've got to put the other team away. I'm not happy with that. That's inappropriate. That's got to stop," he said.
The Rays finished the sweep on Sunday, however -- their fifth win in a row -- and clawed a game over .500.
Best game
Well, that Padres-Rays game was pretty good. Miller's game was mesmerizing. Toronto's win over Boston on Saturday featured Adam Lind's go-ahead home run in the ninth off Junichi Tazawa, after the Red Sox had tied it in the bottom of the eighth. But I'll go with Cleveland's 7-6 win over Justin Verlander and the Tigers on Saturday. Or Cleveland's 4-3 win on Sunday, in which the Indians tied it in the ninth and won it in the 10th, leading to this quote from Mark Reynolds, who delivered the go-ahead single: "With two strikes, I'm just trying to shorten up my swing and get something into play," he said. Wait ... since when does Reynolds shorten up his swing? Gotta love baseball.
The Indians took two of three from the Tigers to move into a first-place tie with Detroit.
Hitter on the rise: Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
He had six home runs through April 21, but his average fell to .173 after a three-strikeout game on April 25. In 16 games, he's hit .419/.478/.694, with three more home runs, eight doubles and nearly as many walks (six) as strikeouts (eight). He has six three-hit games in that stretch, and he's showing he's more than just an all-or-nothing slugger. He's showing he's a guy who is going to be the Cubs' cleanup hitter for a long time.
Pitcher on the rise: Zach McAllister, Indians
Don't believe in the Indians? Don't believe in the rotation? McAllister is starting to look like another solid option alongside Justin Masterson. He didn't get a decision in Sunday's game but pitched a solid six innings. He's 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA and a decent 33/13 SO/BB ratio in 43.2 innings. He's a fly ball pitcher but has allowed just five home runs in seven starts. If he keeps the ball on the right side of the fence he has a chance to be successful.
Brandon Phillips play of the week
This one was pretty.
Happy Mother's Day
Pablo Sandoval uses his pink bat to launch one into McCovey Cove. Tim Lincecum backed up Sandoval with his best outing of the year as the Giants took the final three of four from the Braves. Tough stretch coming up for the Giants, however: 20 of their next 30 on the road, including series in Toronto, Colorado, St. Louis, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Atlanta.
Team on the rise: Indians
They're 12-2 over the past 14, hitting .305 with 24 home runs -- and that stretch does not include that 19-6 win over Houston earlier in the season. The pitching staff has a 2.98 ERA with 13 home runs allowed. The Indians lead the majors in home runs and OPS, and guys like Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera and Lonnie Chisenhall have room to do better.
Team on the fall: A's
Awful week, losing four to Cleveland and then two of three to Seattle. They scored more than three runs just once in seven games as injuries to outfielders Coco Crisp, Chris Young and Josh Reddick have left them playing Michael Taylor and Brandon Moss in the outfield (with Daric Barton or Nate Freiman replacing Moss at first base). Jarrod Parker is still scuffling (6.86 ERA, four walks in 6.1 innings on Saturday). The A's just need to get healthy, and they didn't hit their stride last year until July (they were 37-42 and 13 games out on July 1), so they may be down now, but hardly out.
The hottest team in baseball is those Cleveland Indians, and we don't need instant replay to prove it. The Tribe has won 10 of 11 with terrific pitching and more than a few home runs. Mark Reynolds leaves nothing to chance with 500-foot blasts. Scott Kazmir looked like Clayton Kershaw on Thursday. And help is on the way as Michael Bourn comes off the DL this weekend, just in time for an AL Central matchup with the Detroit Tigers. Are the Indians for real? Well, this isn't the first time the franchise has overachieved early on, just to disappoint later. This weekend they get Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Rick Porcel ... well, they get Max and Justin. Good luck!
Here are other things you need to keep an eye on for this weekend!
1. Underachievers: Two teams not exactly playing quality baseball are the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox, but they're in the spotlight Sunday night on ESPN. Pitching has been an issue for each squad, but on Sunday the likes of Dylan Axelrod (Friday starter) and Jerome Williams (Saturday) step aside for lefties C.J. Wilson and Chris Sale. Can the Angels contend out West? Well, let's see them get comfortably ahead of the Houston Astros first. The White Sox are already in the cellar. If these teams don't turn things around, they'll be sellers. Look for the Angels to turn things around sooner, especially with Jered Weaver and Ryan Madson close to returning.
2. Pass the suntan lotion: While Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz takes offense to allegations his body has been illegally aided, ace right-hander Clay Buchholz has remained relatively quiet about Toronto Blue Jays announcer Jack Morris accusing him of doctoring baseballs with a foreign substance on his arm, later suggested to be a mixture of suntan lotion and rosin (and for a night game in a dome!). Well, what better way for Buchholz to make a statement than in person as the last-place Blue Jays visit Fenway Park. Buchholz is scheduled to face lefty Mark Buehrle Saturday afternoon. In this case suntan lotion is reasonable. If Buchholz pitches poorly, though, it's not going to help his reputation. I'll say he pitches well.
3. Hit on 20: Two first-place teams with more than 20 wins continue their series out West as the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants meet in what could be -- you'll hear this quite a bit over the next four months -- a playoff preview. After all, these teams faced off in the 2010 playoffs. The worst of the starting pitchers still pending in the series is, believe it or not, Tim Lincecum. Hey, the numbers support that. Lincecum is scheduled to meet Kris Medlen Sunday, and while the two-time Cy Young Award winner has had much success against current Braves hitters in the past, that's totally irrelevant. Lincecum isn't the same pitcher he used to be. His underwhelming numbers look pretty much on par with his 2012 ones, with the high ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate.
4. Carlos in Charge: One of the best players many have never heard of will bring a 14-game hitting streak and an NL-leading .386 batting average to Cincinnati this weekend. Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Carlos Gomez is hitting .491 during this stretch, and the highlight pitching matchup comes right away on Friday, as Cincinnati Reds rookie lefty Tony Cingrani faces right-hander Yovani Gallardo. It's also an important outing for Cingrani, with right-hander Johnny Cueto (oblique) nearing a return to the active roster. It's either Cingrani or Mike Leake who will lose a rotation spot, and while it might seem an obvious choice, it probably isn't to Dusty Baker.
5. Harvey's bar: New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey has set the bar quite high in the early going, posting a 1.28 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 4-0 mark through seven starts, and Sunday he gets to face another underwhelming offense in the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's possible Harvey really is a legit Cy Young fave, but here are the teams he's dominated so far: Padres, Phillies, Twins, Nationals, Dodgers, Marlins, White Sox. Not exactly top offenses. Still, Harvey is must-see TV each time out. A few years ago the same could be said of lefty Francisco Liriano; he's a Pirate now, scheduled to make his season debut Saturday, but after posting an ERA on the wrong side of 5 three of the past four seasons, it's tough to muster interest in him.
Have a great weekend!
Here are other things you need to keep an eye on for this weekend!
[+] Enlarge
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY SportsThe Los Angeles Angels' C.J. Wilson, coming off a 12-strikeout performance against the Astros, will try to keep it going against the White Sox this weekend.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY SportsThe Los Angeles Angels' C.J. Wilson, coming off a 12-strikeout performance against the Astros, will try to keep it going against the White Sox this weekend.2. Pass the suntan lotion: While Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz takes offense to allegations his body has been illegally aided, ace right-hander Clay Buchholz has remained relatively quiet about Toronto Blue Jays announcer Jack Morris accusing him of doctoring baseballs with a foreign substance on his arm, later suggested to be a mixture of suntan lotion and rosin (and for a night game in a dome!). Well, what better way for Buchholz to make a statement than in person as the last-place Blue Jays visit Fenway Park. Buchholz is scheduled to face lefty Mark Buehrle Saturday afternoon. In this case suntan lotion is reasonable. If Buchholz pitches poorly, though, it's not going to help his reputation. I'll say he pitches well.
3. Hit on 20: Two first-place teams with more than 20 wins continue their series out West as the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants meet in what could be -- you'll hear this quite a bit over the next four months -- a playoff preview. After all, these teams faced off in the 2010 playoffs. The worst of the starting pitchers still pending in the series is, believe it or not, Tim Lincecum. Hey, the numbers support that. Lincecum is scheduled to meet Kris Medlen Sunday, and while the two-time Cy Young Award winner has had much success against current Braves hitters in the past, that's totally irrelevant. Lincecum isn't the same pitcher he used to be. His underwhelming numbers look pretty much on par with his 2012 ones, with the high ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate.
4. Carlos in Charge: One of the best players many have never heard of will bring a 14-game hitting streak and an NL-leading .386 batting average to Cincinnati this weekend. Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Carlos Gomez is hitting .491 during this stretch, and the highlight pitching matchup comes right away on Friday, as Cincinnati Reds rookie lefty Tony Cingrani faces right-hander Yovani Gallardo. It's also an important outing for Cingrani, with right-hander Johnny Cueto (oblique) nearing a return to the active roster. It's either Cingrani or Mike Leake who will lose a rotation spot, and while it might seem an obvious choice, it probably isn't to Dusty Baker.
5. Harvey's bar: New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey has set the bar quite high in the early going, posting a 1.28 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 4-0 mark through seven starts, and Sunday he gets to face another underwhelming offense in the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's possible Harvey really is a legit Cy Young fave, but here are the teams he's dominated so far: Padres, Phillies, Twins, Nationals, Dodgers, Marlins, White Sox. Not exactly top offenses. Still, Harvey is must-see TV each time out. A few years ago the same could be said of lefty Francisco Liriano; he's a Pirate now, scheduled to make his season debut Saturday, but after posting an ERA on the wrong side of 5 three of the past four seasons, it's tough to muster interest in him.
Have a great weekend!
Crazy night in baseball -- Matt Harvey's near-perfect game, the Yankees getting shut out at Coors Field, ninth-inning wins for the Blue Jays (a victory made less joyous after J.A. Happ was hit in the head by a line drive) and Diamondbacks, Yuniesky Betancourt homering again -- but the most stunning result happened in Cincinnati, where the Reds hit back-to-back home runs with two outs off Craig Kimbrel to defeat the Braves 5-4.
It was just the second time in 30 years that a team hit back-to-back home runs with two outs in the ninth to win a game (Nick Green and J.D. Drew did it for the Braves in 2004). That it came off Kimbrel, regarded as the game's best closer, was all the more shocking.
First, Devin Mesoraco, pinch-hitting, lined a 3-2 low fastball just over the fence in right-center to tie it and then Shin-Soo Choo hit his second homer of the game, off another low fastball, for the improbable walk-off.
We all remember how dominant Kimbrel was last season. Not only did he strike out over half the batters he faced, he allowed just four extra-base hits -- three home runs and a double. He's now allowed three home runs and two doubles in 2013 in just 13.1 innings and has blown three save chances -- and the Braves lost all three games. You can point to his still-great strikeout totals (21) but the bottom line is Kimbrel has not done the job. That's three losses for the Braves in games they led entering the ninth inning, after losing just one such game a year ago.
In 2012, the 30 teams combined to lose just 111 such games --3.7 per team. So unless Kimbrel is perfect the rest of the way, the Braves' ability to protect ninth-inning leads will likely be worse than the average major league team.
Making Kimbrel just another overrated closer.
Other quick thoughts:
It was just the second time in 30 years that a team hit back-to-back home runs with two outs in the ninth to win a game (Nick Green and J.D. Drew did it for the Braves in 2004). That it came off Kimbrel, regarded as the game's best closer, was all the more shocking.
First, Devin Mesoraco, pinch-hitting, lined a 3-2 low fastball just over the fence in right-center to tie it and then Shin-Soo Choo hit his second homer of the game, off another low fastball, for the improbable walk-off.
We all remember how dominant Kimbrel was last season. Not only did he strike out over half the batters he faced, he allowed just four extra-base hits -- three home runs and a double. He's now allowed three home runs and two doubles in 2013 in just 13.1 innings and has blown three save chances -- and the Braves lost all three games. You can point to his still-great strikeout totals (21) but the bottom line is Kimbrel has not done the job. That's three losses for the Braves in games they led entering the ninth inning, after losing just one such game a year ago.
In 2012, the 30 teams combined to lose just 111 such games --3.7 per team. So unless Kimbrel is perfect the rest of the way, the Braves' ability to protect ninth-inning leads will likely be worse than the average major league team.
Making Kimbrel just another overrated closer.
Other quick thoughts:
- Adam Rubin has the story on Harvey's dominant performance against the White Sox -- he allowed only Alex Rios' infield single, a play Ruben Tejada could have made if he'd played it a little more aggressively. Batters are hitting .133 off Harvey so far. He joins a list of notable no-decisions in recent years, a great list dug up by ESPN Stats & Info: Randy Johnson (May 8, 2001, 9 IP, 3 H, 20 SO); Kevin Millwood (Aug. 28, 1999, 10 IP, 2 H, 9 SO); Francisco Cordova (July 12, 1997, 9 IP, 0 H, 10 SO). Cordova and teammate Ricardo Rincon ended up combining for a 10-inning no-hitter that day for the Pirates.
- Paul Goldschmidt hit a two-run homer off Brandon League in the ninth to give the Diamondbacks a 7-5 win over the terrible Dodgers, but check out these two plays from Didi Gregorius. I wonder if he makes that play on Rios ...
- Not to be outdone, check out these two plays from Atlanta's Andrelton Simmons.
- Adrian Beltre, however, had the play of the night to rob Yuniesky Betancourt. The Brewers beat the Rangers anyway as they scored five in the first inning -- including Betancourt's eighth home run.
We're in a golden age for leadoff hitters
May, 7, 2013
May 7
12:30
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com

- "I don't think I ever got proper credit about being smart about the game." -- Rickey Henderson
When was the golden age for leadoff hitters?
Well, 1965 was pretty good. Joe Morgan was a rookie that year and hit his way into the leadoff spot, where he posted a .943 OPS. Felipe Alou started 108 games in the leadoff position and hit .303 with 20 home runs. Zoilo Versalles was the American League MVP, started 155 games there for the Twins and led the league in runs, doubles, triples and total bases. Pete Rose and Lou Brock started large chunks of games there. Maury Wills stole 92 bases.
How about 1975? Rose, Ken Singleton and Bobby Bonds each had more than 400 plate appearances from the top spot and on-base percentages over .400. Davey Lopes stole 72 bases, and Brock swiped 56. Guys such as Bernie Carbo, Roy White, Don Money and Al Bumbry were productive when hitting there.
There was 1987, with Henderson, Tim Raines, Paul Molitor, a second-year kid named Barry Bonds, Brett Butler, Brian Downing and Lou Whitaker. Remember Kal Daniels? He started 74 games for the Reds as the leadoff hitter that year and hit .337 with 22 home runs.
And 2004 seems like a good season. Ichiro Suzuki hit .377 with 251 hits as a leadoff guy. Johnny Damon scored 123 runs and drove in 94. Other leadoff success stories were Ray Durham, Jimmy Rollins, some Derek Jeter, .336-hitting Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal. Craig Biggio hit .281 with 23 home runs and 46 doubles leading off. Pretty stellar group.
Good years all. Maybe you grew up in the '80s, when it seems half the teams had leadoff hitters who could swipe 50-plus bases -- Vince Coleman, Juan Samuel, Willie Wilson, Omar Moreno. Maybe that feels like the best era for leadoff hitters.
It isn't. The golden age is now.
I checked every season since 1950 and compared the production of leadoff hitters to the overall major league batting totals. Granted, it's only early May, but at their current rate, leadoff hitters have never hit better when compared to their peers. Here's a table listing the top 10 seasons by leadoff hitters (since 1950), using OPS compared to league OPS. Also included are the league-average runs per game and the number of stolen bases and runs scored per 650 PAs.
Using OPS is an imperfect method, because it doesn't factor in speed and stealing bases. That's why I included the totals for steals and runs per 650 PAs. Stolen bases don't really have a large effect on run scoring. Compare 2013 to 1990; the run-scoring environments were essentially the same (4.3 runs per game), and while the 1990 guys swiped 10 more bases per 650 PAs, they scored fewer runs. Stolen bases are down a bit in 2013, and certainly injuries to big stolen-base guys such as Jose Reyes and Michael Bourn have dragged down those steal totals a bit.
If there was a golden era before 2013, it looks like that 1990-1992 period, which featured leadoff hitters such as Henderson, Molitor, Lenny Dykstra, Wade Boggs, Tony Phillips, Bip Roberts, Butler, Delino DeShields, Raines, Biggio, Brady Anderson and Devon White.
But never before have we seen the depth in quality leadoff hitters that we're seeing this year. Yes, some of this is a result of the readjustment of offensive levels in recent years. From 1993 to 2006, leadoff hitters never posted OPS totals above the MLB average; as offensive totals boomed, leadoff hitters looked worse compared to their peers. The decline in offensive numbers has brought the rest of the pack back closer to leadoff hitters, but even the raw OPS total for 2013 of .759 is tied for the fourth highest behind 1987 (.764), 2006 (.762) and 2007 (.760).
Look at the best leadoff hitters in the game right now -- a group that doesn't even include Mike Trout, who has started only eight games in the leadoff spot, or the injured Reyes: Shin-Soo Choo (leading the majors in OBP), Austin Jackson (31 runs in 31 games), the underrated Alex Gordon, Ian Kinsler off to big start, Carl Crawford looking healthy and good again, Jacoby Ellsbury, the emerging Dexter Fowler, unsung Norichika Aoki and Starling Marte, perhaps a star in the making in Pittsburgh. Baltimore's Nate McLouth is a platoon player but has a .423 OBP hitting leadoff.
But what really makes 2013 a golden age is the quality behind those players. Others who have hit regularly there include Coco Crisp, Jose Altuve, Denard Span, Angel Pagan, Gerardo Parra, Michael Brantley, David DeJesus and Brett Gardner, all of whom have provided solid production.
One thing managers have wised up on -- for the most part -- is that batting a speedy guy leadoff isn't worth it if his OBP is under .300. Coleman had 670 PAs and stole 107 bases with the Cardinals in 1986 but still scored only 94 runs. The days of guys like Brian Hunter (.282 OBP in 1999 while starting 102 games with the Mariners in the leadoff position) burning up 500 PAs are gone. Managers won't stick with a guy that long anymore. (Well, Dusty Baker might, but Walt Jocketty acquired Choo for him this year.)
So, no, maybe there isn't one player the equal of a Henderson (of course not, that's like saying there's nobody who can hit like Babe Ruth) or Raines, or a 1993 Dykstra or in-his-prime Ichiro, but appreciate the guys out there: There's a lot of quality.
Choo finally gives Reds good leadoff hitter
May, 6, 2013
May 6
2:00
PM ET
By Anna McDonald | ESPN.com
G Fiume/Getty ImagesShin-Soo Choo hasn't been just one of the best leadoff hitters, he's been one of the best hitters.So, when on May 6 we see Shin-Soo Choo ranking second in the National League to teammate Joey Votto in on-base percentage (.463 to .464), leading in offensive WAR (2.0) and batting .331, a fair question to ask is: Will the Cincinnati Reds center fielder keep up this production?
"He's only going to get, I think, better once he knows the league," manager Dusty Baker said last week. "Right now he's going on video and word of mouth from people until he forms his own book, so to speak."
Since Baker became the Reds' manager they've struggled to get consistent production from the leadoff spot. That's six seasons. Last year, they won their second division title in three years even though they had the worst leadoff production in the majors -- an abysmal .254 OBP.
"The hardest thing to find is a leadoff man that can hit as best as [Choo] can hit and drive in runs and hit with power," Baker said. "So, there's a lot of dynamics there."
The Reds acquired Choo from the Indians this past December in a three-team deal involving nine players. Choo said the media are often asking him why he's having such a great start, but he's been a good player for years. While he played under the radar in Cleveland, Choo's career .385 OBP ranks 10th among active players (minimum 1,500 plate appearances).
"Actually, my career, every year is a slow start," Choo said. "You know, I'm not changing anything mechanically. Mechanics I'm not changing, but I think my mind is more comfortable this year."
Hitters have to enjoy the process of baseball. If one bad at-bat starts to get in their head it can turn into several, then eventually, a longer struggle at the plate. Branch Rickey once said, "If things don't come easy, there is no premium on effort. There should be joy in the chase, zest in the pursuit." This is a good description of Choo this year.
Baker says his center fielder is a perfectionist and a very hard worker. He often tells Choo to take the pressure off himself. This has helped.
"Sometimes it can be counter-productive," Baker said. "But I'd rather have that than the other guy that doesn't care."
Choo also attributes his comfort level at the plate to the good hitters -- Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips -- batting behind him and also to the change in his mentality. Hitters will often say when things are going well they moved from "I have to get a hit" to "I can get a hit."
Choo says this is exactly what has happened. "Some days I feel more focused," he said. "I think before, I [thought] about the whole at-bat; this year I think about every pitch."
Not only has Choo adjusted to a new league, he also changed positions, from right field to center, a move many in the analytical community argued was a questionable decision by the Reds considering Choo's defensive metrics last year were poor.
"I'm covering a lot of ground in center field," Choo said. "My career, I spent like 99 percent in right field. ... Center field, it's a lot of movement in the gaps."
Before games the Reds are helping Choo with his positioning, using scouting information on each hitter. First-base coach Billy Hatcher and right fielder Bruce have been a huge help, as well.
"The biggest adjustment of being in center field is being in charge because when he was in right or left somebody else was in charge," Baker said. "There’s a lot more running. He enjoys the challenge and feels very badly if he doesn't make [the play]."
So far, Choo's metrics show him struggling with his range -- his minus-7 defensive runs saved is the worst among major league outfielders (tied with Seattle's Mike Morse).
The NL Central could be a tight four-team race all year long and for now the Reds will live with the defense as long as Choo keeps getting on base more than 40 percent of the time.
Free agency is also looming after this season for Choo.
"You know, a lot of people ask me, 'Do you want to stay in Cincinnati, you are a free agent this year?' Actually, I don't know why but I feel more comfortable this year," he said. "I'm not really worried about free agency."
Choo thinks about this for a minute, then he begins to understand why he feels this way.
"I know why," he said. "Cincinnati lost two top prospects, then [they] bring me here so they want me here. So [I'm focusing] on a healthy year. ... Always, my goal is to be better than last year. That's my goal every year. So I want to get better every year."
Looking at it in very simplistic terms, professional baseball players are paid to hit and catch the ball. It is their job. Why would it matter if mentally a baseball player doesn't feel quite right? Yet, we hear this over and over again from players, coaches, managers and front office personnel: the mental state of a ballplayer affects production. Choo agreed.
"I think good things always becoming more true," he said.
Anna McDonald is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog.
Did Dusty learn anything this weekend?
May, 6, 2013
May 6
12:25
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
AP Photo/Charles Rex ArbogastCincinnati's bullpen secured the game after
Aroldis Chapman failed to close out the Cubs on Friday.The question: Did Baker learn anything?
Did he learn that there are multiple ways to use a bullpen, ways that can make the Reds' pen a more effective weapon? In fact, on Sunday, with Chapman and Jonathan Broxton both having pitched two days in a row, Hoover earned another save in a 7-4 victory.
That's the way a bullpen should be used: Save Chapman for the close games and tie games; using Chapman with a three-run lead is essentially a waste. Hoover, even if he's the third or fourth guy in the pen, is capable of closing out a three-run lead. Of course, I doubt Baker will change because of two games. He blamed Chapman's poor outing Friday on inactivity.
"He hadn't pitched in three days," Baker said. "If you don't pitch him it's like if you're pitching him too much."
OK. I think I get what Dusty is saying: Being rusty can lead to the same ineffectiveness as being overused. Chapman hadn't pitched in three days, which doesn't really seem like an unusual layoff, but I guess it's a good excuse. But it's that concern that often leads managers to pitch closers in meaningless situations just to get them work. That could be avoided by using your closer for more than three outs, but that is against the Unwritten Rules of Modern Closer Usage. Even though when Chapman was a setup guy, Baker routinely used him for more than three outs.
Hoover actually summed up bullpen usage pretty succinctly Friday: "You kind of train yourself for that as a reliever. All of these [relievers] can handle that situation. That's what makes us a good staff."
Hoover, Broxton, Sean Marshall and Sam LeCure are all good pitchers, as Hoover points out, and capable of saving games if needed.
So, if Dusty is concerned about Chapman not pitching enough, then pitch him more! Tie game in the eighth? Use him for two innings. Extra innings? Let him go two. Chapman has pitched 15 innings in 16 appearances. Even though he's one of the great strikeout relievers in the game's history, the type of pitcher who can get you out of tough jams, only once has Chapman entered with a runner on base this season, and that was when the Reds were already trailing.
I know I pick on Baker a lot, and he's really only one of 30 managers who uses his pen this way. But he's a high-profile manager on a team with World Series aspirations with a unique weapon at his disposal in Chapman. The lefty flamethrower is on pace to pitch 78 innings, many of which will be wasted with three-run leads, and few of which will come to escape tough jams.
Baker can use him in smarter ways. And leave the cheap saves to Hoover.
The Washington Nationals, fresh off a 98-win season and expecting a similar result in 2013, enter their weekend series with fewer wins than their surprising opponents, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Which team is better? That's an easy one. It's the team with Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. Of course, those three guys are all in the news for various reasons and, as we've seen in the past, to various degrees. Will Strasburg and his secretive forearm "problem" pitch? Will Harper avoid turning his bruised lat into a bigger issue? And Zimmerman's hamstring is healed, and he's slated to come off the DL Friday, but how long before his balky shoulder forces him out of action again? Here is what else to watch this weekend.

Rivalry rekindled: We don't exactly throw the records out when the Nats and Bucs meet, but things tend to get interesting when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants get together, for better and occasionally, worse. The team's aces, however, are in far different places these days. Lefty Clayton Kershaw is dominating, again. He's scheduled to face the still-effective Barry Zito Friday. On Sunday night on ESPN the Giants will send Matt Cain to the mound. Cain has already permitted nine home runs, matching his season total from 2011. Last year he allowed 21. Dodgers Adrian Gonzalez (4 homers off Cain) and Andre Ethier (.450 batting average) are licking their chops.

Red Alert: Hyun-Jin Ryu and Shelby Miller enter the weekend leading rookie pitchers in strikeouts, but then it's electric Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani, boasting 28 whiffs in a mere three starts. Cingrani is scheduled to flummox Chicago Cubs hitters at Wrigley Field on Saturday, and one has to think when ace right-hander Johnny Cueto comes off the DL in a week or two that the rookie has done enough to secure his starting role. Or has he? Manager Dusty Baker does love his veterans. Regardless, enjoy Cingrani while he's dominating.

David vs. Goliath: Sunday's matchup in Houston sure doesn’t seem like a fair fight between hurlers with no-hitters to their credit. The Detroit Tigers send Justin Verlander to the mound. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. He's really good, wins awards, gets the commercials and the ladies. The Houston Astros send Philip Humber out there. He threw a perfect game in Seattle barely a calendar year ago, but things have not gone so well since then. Humber boasts a 7.44 ERA since, and this season he's 0-6 with a 7.58 ERA. You know you're curious how this one ends up, admit it.

Price's punishment: David Price and umpire Tom Hallion didn’t quite get along this past weekend, resulting in tweets and fines and probably much ado about nothing. What's worse for pending future gadzillionaire Price, the $1,000 fine levied on him by Major League Baseball, or having to pitch Saturday at Coors Field? Lotsa runs get scored in that place. Price pitched there once, allowing five runs in seven innings and losing the game in 2009. Could we make the case the paltry fine is offset by the potential damage to Price's ERA and his next contract? OK, perhaps not. But watch two pretty good teams go at it. The Rays are sputtering in fourth place, the Rockies start the weekend in first place, hoping shortstop Troy Tulowitzki will play and avoid injury. Cross your fingers.

Worst to first: Alas, the lone matchup of first-place teams this weekend pits the surprising Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers. The Cinco de Mayo game on Sunday features Jon Lester and Yu Darvish, which should be interesting. Lester seems rejuvenated, though his outing earlier this week in Toronto was a rough one. Darvish, off to a blistering start and leading the majors in strikeouts, faced the Red Sox once in his rookie season, but it was at Fenway Park. This one is in Texas. Expect another terrific outing for the eventual AL Cy Young winner.
Enjoy your weekend!

Rivalry rekindled: We don't exactly throw the records out when the Nats and Bucs meet, but things tend to get interesting when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants get together, for better and occasionally, worse. The team's aces, however, are in far different places these days. Lefty Clayton Kershaw is dominating, again. He's scheduled to face the still-effective Barry Zito Friday. On Sunday night on ESPN the Giants will send Matt Cain to the mound. Cain has already permitted nine home runs, matching his season total from 2011. Last year he allowed 21. Dodgers Adrian Gonzalez (4 homers off Cain) and Andre Ethier (.450 batting average) are licking their chops.

Red Alert: Hyun-Jin Ryu and Shelby Miller enter the weekend leading rookie pitchers in strikeouts, but then it's electric Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani, boasting 28 whiffs in a mere three starts. Cingrani is scheduled to flummox Chicago Cubs hitters at Wrigley Field on Saturday, and one has to think when ace right-hander Johnny Cueto comes off the DL in a week or two that the rookie has done enough to secure his starting role. Or has he? Manager Dusty Baker does love his veterans. Regardless, enjoy Cingrani while he's dominating.

David vs. Goliath: Sunday's matchup in Houston sure doesn’t seem like a fair fight between hurlers with no-hitters to their credit. The Detroit Tigers send Justin Verlander to the mound. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. He's really good, wins awards, gets the commercials and the ladies. The Houston Astros send Philip Humber out there. He threw a perfect game in Seattle barely a calendar year ago, but things have not gone so well since then. Humber boasts a 7.44 ERA since, and this season he's 0-6 with a 7.58 ERA. You know you're curious how this one ends up, admit it.

Price's punishment: David Price and umpire Tom Hallion didn’t quite get along this past weekend, resulting in tweets and fines and probably much ado about nothing. What's worse for pending future gadzillionaire Price, the $1,000 fine levied on him by Major League Baseball, or having to pitch Saturday at Coors Field? Lotsa runs get scored in that place. Price pitched there once, allowing five runs in seven innings and losing the game in 2009. Could we make the case the paltry fine is offset by the potential damage to Price's ERA and his next contract? OK, perhaps not. But watch two pretty good teams go at it. The Rays are sputtering in fourth place, the Rockies start the weekend in first place, hoping shortstop Troy Tulowitzki will play and avoid injury. Cross your fingers.

Worst to first: Alas, the lone matchup of first-place teams this weekend pits the surprising Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers. The Cinco de Mayo game on Sunday features Jon Lester and Yu Darvish, which should be interesting. Lester seems rejuvenated, though his outing earlier this week in Toronto was a rough one. Darvish, off to a blistering start and leading the majors in strikeouts, faced the Red Sox once in his rookie season, but it was at Fenway Park. This one is in Texas. Expect another terrific outing for the eventual AL Cy Young winner.
Enjoy your weekend!
SweetSpot TV: Do lineups really matter?
April, 30, 2013
Apr 30
11:45
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Keith Law has a column up on why the Reds should bat Joey Votto second. Eric Karabell and I discuss that idea and other things managers should do with their batting orders that could help them score a few more runs. We do present the worst lineup construction of the year but also point out some smart moves managers have made.

