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Whether or not you like the one-and-done format of the wild-card game, it does present a great opportunity to second guess everything the managers do, from roster management to pitching changes, bunts and, of course, when to use your closer.

Tim Kurkjian has five key questions for the game, but here some other key components on how this game may play out.

• Obviously, to a large degree the outcome rests on the starting pitchers, even knowing quick hooks are in order. The Reds' three best hitters are Joey Votto, Shin-Soo Choo and Jay Bruce, all left-handed, so that's why Clint Hurdle is going with Francisco Liriano, who held lefties to a .131/.175/.146 batting line. He allowed just two extra-base hits to left-handers, both doubles. Liriano had one blow-up 10-run start against the Rockies, but he's been very consistent all season. He had just one other start where he allowed more than four runs -- and that was against the Reds. Still, to beat Liriano, it's likely the Reds' right-handed batters will have to do some damage.
• Meanwhile, Mat Latos was the likely starter for the Reds until he admitted he had pain in his elbow, diagnosed as bone chips. So Johnny Cueto draws the start. He's made just two starts since missing three months with an oblique strain, similar to the injury that knocked him out of Game 1 of last year's Division Series. He pitched well in those two starts, but they came against the Astros and Mets, so it's hard to read too much into those. While he's made just 11 starts this season, don't forget how good this guy has been: 2.61 ERA over the past three seasons. Cueto throws a fastball, slider and cutter, but his big pitch is a changeup that induces a lot of groundballs. Over the past two seasons, batters are hitting just .217 against the changeup (and .097 in 2013 in 62 at-bats). He threw 99 pitches his last start, so he's ready to go as deep as Dusty Baker needs.
• This is going to be an armchair manager's dream because there are going to be a ton of potential matchups that could come into play. For Hurdle, he's gone with a nine-man pitching staff. Gerrit Cole is the long man/extra-inning guy, with lefties Justin Wilson and Tony Watson available to face the Choo/Votto/Bruce section of the lineup. Wilson and Watson can both get righties out, so Hurdle doesn't have to treat them as LOOGYs. The right-handers are Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli, plus Vin Mazzaro, Bryan Morris and Jeanmar Gomez. Basically, assuming Liriano goes even just five innings, Hurdle should be able to get the matchups he wants in the late innings, as Baker doesn't really have many pinch-hitting/platoon options on his bench.
• You could argue that Chris Heisey should be in the starting lineup over Choo, who hit .215 with no home runs against lefties. He did post a .347 OBP, but part of that was HBP-induced (he was hit by a league-leading 26 pitches) and Liriano didn't hit a batter. I realize Baker isn't going to suddenly change, but the numbers say this is a bad matchup for Choo.
• The Reds are carrying four left-handers in the bullpen -- Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall, Manny Parra and Zach Duke -- and 10 pitchers overall (Mike Leake is the long man/extra-inning guy). The extra lefties give Baker the ability to match up with Pedro Alvarez, Justin Morneau and Garrett Jones, all of whom have big platoon splits. Alvarez and Morneau will start with Jones coming off the bench. But Baker has to be worry about getting too cute here. Hurdle won't hit for Alvarez, but Gaby Sanchez is a platoon bat for Morneau and Jose Tabata is another right-handed bat. Keep in mind the Pirates are carrying an extra position player -- they have three catchers in Russell Martin, John Buck and Tony Sanchez -- so Hurdle has a deeper and more usable bench.
• As home team, the Pirates have an advantage in using the closer in a tie game. If Baker waits to save Chapman for a save situation, he may never get him in the game. Of course, this doesn't have to be an advantage for the Pirates. Baker doesn't have to wait use Chapman until the Reds take the lead. Look at what happened to the Braves last year: Craig Kimbrel had maybe the greatest closer season of all time but didn't get in the game until it was already 6-3 in the ninth. In the meantime, the Cardinals scored two runs in the seventh inning (some shoddy defense hurt, but Kimbrel could have been used to potentially get out of the inning).
• Billy Hamilton versus Martin. The rookie speedster is on the roster. Martin threw out 40 percent of basestealers.

Prediction: Liriano is tough, the Pirates have the ability to counteract Baker's moves, the bullpen does the job and Chapman doesn't make an impact. Pirates 4, Reds 2. (And I didn't even mention Andrew McCutchen!)

Bud Selig has officially announced that he'll step down as commissioner in January 2015. Jerry Crasnick will assess his legacy (hey, if Bowie Kuhn made the Hall of Fame I suspect Selig will eventually as well), but here are five key issues for the next commissioner to address.

1. Instant replay and quality of umpiring

We finally get expanded replay next season, so that should help resolve some of the controversial and blown calls. It remains to be seen how effective and efficient the system will be, but it can be adjusted as necessary. Just as importantly, the new commissioner has to work to improve consistency of ball/strike calls and reduce the episodes of ump rage.

Right now, the best umps (Eric Cooper, Chad Fairchild, Phil Cuzzi) get about 90 percent of ball/strike calls correct, according to our pitch data; the worst umps (Wally Bell, Tim Welke, Kerwin Danley, Jerry Meals) are at 86 percent. That difference may not seem like a lot, but that's a spread of 10 incorrect calls per 250 pitches. Even a 90 percent correct rate means the best umps are missing about 25 to 30 ball/strike calls a game. Maybe the human eye can't do better, but MLB needs to pay its umpire better, and in particular pay minor league umpires a living wage, so you can recruit from a wider field of candidates.

2. To DH or not to DH?

This ridiculousness has gone on too long. You simply can't have one sport with two leagues playing under different rules. The answer seems to be pretty obvious: Get rid of the designated hitter. There were only four full-time DHs this year: David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, Billy Butler and Kendrys Morales. They all batted at least 500 times as a DH. Nobody else even had 300 plate appearances (including Adam Dunn, who played a lot of first base). With so few teams actually using a DH, the resolution should be pretty clear. OK, so Butler is the youngest of those four and signed through 2015. No DH starting in 2016.

3. Oakland and Tampa Bay stadium issues

Look, both organizations have shown they can compete and win in spite of their lousy ballparks and low revenue. Part of the problem is that other teams are tired of propping up the Rays and A's. "The key here is to recognize that without the revenue-sharing dollars, we wouldn't even be able to compete or do what we're doing," Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said in August. "The other owners are looking at this and saying, 'How many years is this going to be? How much money is this going to be to a failing situation?'"

Oakland's problem is more easily solved. The A's want to move to San Jose; the Giants hold territorial rights to Santa Clara County (given to them years ago by the A's). A three-quarters majority vote of all owners can return those rights to the A's, but Selig has refused to call for a vote, wanting unanimity, including the Giants. Well, of course, the Giants would vote against it. The new commish should side with the A's here and get them, literally, out of the sewage.

4. Tanking

I've written about this issue. Buster Olney addressed it the other day. The current collective bargaining agreement makes it beneficial for teams to lose -- either to get a higher draft position (and thus more money to spend in the draft) or finish with one of the 10 worst records and thus have a protected first-round pick when signing free agents. What kind of sport essentially encourages tanking for 10 or more teams?

This season, we'll likely finish with 10 teams and maybe 11 winning 90 games ... and seven to 10 losing 90 games. You don't want to read too much into one season, but it's possible we'll see more seasons like this: Contenders and non-contenders, which makes for a less interesting sport. Back in 2004, only five teams won 90 and six lost 90. That's a healthier sport.

But the draft rules tie into another problem. For the most part, the owners love the new rules and capping the amount teams can spend in the draft. Why give more money to amateurs when you can pocket some of that money instead and buy new leather seats for your private jet? The long-range issue here is obvious: You risk talented athletes choosing other sports as signing bonuses decrease. The new commissioner should find ways to get more athletes playing baseball, rather than potentially pushing them towards a different sport.

5. The schedule

Nobody likes the fact that interleague play is now a constant throughout the season, but that's unavoidable with 15 teams in each league. But the unbalanced schedule creates issues of teams competing for the same thing (a wild-card spot) while playing vastly different schedules.

My own personal pet peeve is that the season drags too long into October. Last year's World Series games in Detroit were played in brutally cold weather. Depending on which teams advance, you're often playing your most important games of the year in your worst weather. The World Series can be as much a test of ability as a test of weather fortitude. There isn't a good solution, unless your shorten the regular season or the playoffs, add some doubleheaders, or -- god forbid -- play some World Series games during the day. The weather in Detroit in the afternoon last October was quite lovely. At night? Not so much.

Let's take a break from these hectic final days of the season and look back at the 10 best decisions of the season. To me, these were decisions based on good analysis or good scouting or both, with a reasonable chance of working out. Signing Zack Greinke is easy. Having Scott Kazmir work out is good luck. These were calculated decisions that paid off.

10. Tigers don't overpay for a closer. Throughout the offseason, during spring training and into April and May, there were cries for the Tigers to go out and acquire a Proven Closer. General manager Dave Dombrowski resisted and eventually veteran setup man Joaquin Benoit took over as closer ... and has been perfectly great, going 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 23 saves and just one blown save. Why give up a good prospect for a closer when one isn't that hard to find?

9. Rays acquire Yunel Escobar. Last year, the Rays got so desperate for some offense at shorstop that Joe Maddon eventually had to move Ben Zobrist there. Escobar went from Toronto to Miami in the big Jose Reyes-Josh Johnson-Mark Buehrle trade, and then Tampa Bay got him for marginal prospect Derek Dietrich. Escobar wore out his welcome in Atlanta and Toronto, but hasn't had any issues in Tampa. The Rays didn't panic when Escobar was hitting under .200 in mid-May. He turned things around and has had a solid .258/.333/.370 season. These days, that's good offense from a shortstop.

8. Dodgers sign Hyun-Jin Ryu. For all the talk about the Dodgers' enormous payroll, they brought Ryu over from Korea with a $25.7 million bid and a reasonable six-year, $36 million contract. That's about $10 million a year for a pitcher who has gone 14-7 with a 2.97 ERA. That's only $8 million more than the Cubs gave for four years of Edwin Jackson, who has a 4.74 ERA. Chalk it up to good scouting.

7. A's trade for Jed Lowrie. Oakland had terrible production from its shortstops in 2012 and only had to give up platoon first baseman/DH Chris Carter to acquire the injury-prone Lowrie. It was a trade with little risk for the A's but high upside: Yes, Carter had power but he was never going to be a star with all of his strikeouts. Lowrie has stayed healthy and been one of the top hitting shortstops in the majors.

6. Reds trade for Shin-Soo Choo. This was a perfect example of a team identifying an obvious need -- the Reds needed a leadoff hitter -- and going out and solving the problem. Even though he struggles against left-handers, Choo is second in the National League in on-base percentage, walks and runs. His defense in center field has been a minor liability instead of a major one and the Reds are heading back to the playoffs.

5. Red Sox acquire good clubhouse guys. More importantly, Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes also produced on the field. Victorino was a signing I liked even though it was widely panned -- I liked the idea of having a second center fielder in right field and a good option in case Jacoby Ellsbury got injured. Victorino's offense has been a bonus and his defense has been terrific.

4. Marlins give Jose Fernandez a job out of spring training. Fernandez didn't pitch above A-ball last year, so when he broke camp with the Marlins everybody wondered why the desire to rush him and start his service time when the Marlins weren't going to be any good. But sometimes you have to do the obvious thing: Like Dwight Gooden in 1984, Fernandez had to be in the major leagues because he was that good. All Fernandez did was post a 2.19 ERA and hold batters to a .522 OPS, the lowest for a starter since Pedro Martinez in 2000.

3. Pirates sign Russell Martin. The Pirates made several smart moves -- trading for Mark Melancon, giving the closer job to Jason Grilli, signing Francisco Liriano (although that one produced more upside than anyone could have imagined) -- but Martin was an under-the-radar move that solved a huge problem for the Pirates. Last year, the Pirates allowed 154 stolen bases while catching just 19 basestealers, an abysmal 11 percent caught stealing rate. Thanks to Martin, they've cut that total to 93 steals and 43 caught stealing, a 32 percent rate (Martin has caught 40 percent). Martin is also one of the better pitch framers around and his offense has been about league average. With what he's meant behind the plate, he could see some down-ballot MVP support.

2. Dodgers call up Yasiel Puig. It looks like an easy decision in retrospect, but this was still a 22-year-old kid with just 67 games of minor league experience, 40 of them above A ball. It took some guts to call him up in early June, even if the move was born out of a little desperation. Give credit to the Dodgers correctly analyzing the raw ability and believing he would hold his own in the majors.

1. Cardinals move Matt Carpenter to second. You can probably count the number of successful third base-to-second base conversions on one hand; players rarely move up the defensive spectrum to a tougher position, which is why many expected that Carpenter would soon return to a utility role. But in Carpenter the Cardinals had the perfect pupil: A player in his second season who wanted to break into the starting lineup, but also a 27-year-old with more maturity than most second-year players. He's a smart player with a good ethic. Plus, the Cardinals knew he could hit, not that they expected a .324 average and 55 doubles.

It's another milestone for the Pittsburgh Pirates: With a dramatic 2-1 win over the Cubs, followed by the Cardinals beating the Nationals, the Pirates officially clinched a playoff spot, their first since 1992. If you don't remember 1992 in Pirates history, that's when Barry Bonds patrolled left field, Tim Wakefield was a rookie knuckleballer and Jim Leyland was chain-smoking cigarettes at Three Rivers Stadium.

The Pirates may have preferred the Nationals to stay alive for at least another day and beat the Cardinals -- which would have cut St. Louis' lead in the NL Central over Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to one game -- but they happily popped the champagne bottles in their cramped Wrigley Field clubhouse, goggles and hugs for everyone.

The game was tied 1-1 in the ninth when Starling Marte smashed a two-out home run to left field off Kevin Gregg for a 2-1 lead. In the bottom of the ninth, the Pirates threw out the game-tying run at home plate with two outs in one of the strangest plays you'll ever see. With Nate Schierholtz on first base, Ryan Sweeney singled to right-center, but right fielder Marlon Byrd had the ball bounce off his glove. Andrew McCutchen was backing up the play as Schierholtz charged home. McCutchen's throw hit the infield grass and was skidding off target, but Justin Morneau cut it off at the pitcher's mound and threw to catcher Russell Martin, who tagged out Schierholtz for the final out.

Just your typical 9-8-3-2 putout. To clinch a postseason slot, no less.

Now for the bad-news side of things. While the Pirates are everyone's favorite underdog-makes-good story and team to root for in the postseason if yours isn't there, there are issues with the way the club is playing right now, both of which were on display in Monday's game: The offense is struggling, and the ninth inning is suddenly a question mark.

First, the offense. The Pirates had just six hits on Monday, home runs by Marte and Neil Walker accounting for the two runs. They were held to five hits by the Reds on both Saturday on Sunday, and last week against the Padres they were one-hit by Andrew Cashner when he faced the minimum 27 batters, and two days later were held to three hits while sending just 29 batters to the plate. In their past 12 games, the Pirates are hitting .209 and have been held to six hits or fewer in seven of those games.

In September, the Pirates are hitting .231 while averaging just 3.5 runs per game. Too often, the offense is now dependent on the home run. They also haven't been manufacturing runs as they're just 4-for-10 stealing bases this month.

Of course, this goes back to August. The Pirates are 25-25 the past two months; they've morphed into a .500 team that struggles to score runs. GM Neal Huntington attempted to improve the team's offense when he traded for Byrd and Morneau, but neither has made a big impact. Byrd has been OK, not great, since coming over from the Mets, hitting .277/.316/.426. Manager Clint Hurdle keeps thinking Morneau is going to be his cleanup hitter, at least against right-handers, but Morneau hasn't been a cleanup-caliber hitter in years and is hitting .254/.354/.299 without a home run in 22 games with Pittsburgh. At least he's drawing some walks, but it's wishful thinking right now that Morneau is a championship-caliber cleanup hitter.

The bullpen has been such an outstanding strength all season, but suddenly the ninth inning is an issue. Jason Grilli, back from his DL stint, survived on Monday to get the save, but it says something that Hurdle actually began the inning with lefty Tony Watson retiring Anthony Rizzo. Grilli has allowed 13 baserunners in 6 2/3 innings pitched since coming back from the DL.

Mark Melancon still owns that sweet 1.30 ERA, but that number has risen in September. He had back-to-back blown saves on Wednesday and Friday last week, and while the blown save against the Reds on Friday involved some bad fielding and bad-luck bloopers, he's still had two other four-hit innings this month. The confidence level can't be as high with him right now as it was two weeks ago.

The Pirates have five games remaining, five games to either catch the Cardinals or get a game up on the Reds in order to the host the wild-card game. It's too late for new evidence to accrue, so Hurdle will have to go with his gut on things like Morneau and maneuvering the bullpen arms.

I'm still rooting for the Pirates, and Monday was a great day for Pittsburgh and all the Pirates fans who have suffered through 20 years of bad baseball. But I'm starting to fear these next five games are going to be followed by just one more.

You might expect that the easy focus during baseball's penultimate regular-season weekend is on guessing who's going to make it into October. Not so much in the National League, though, where the playoff slate has been essentially settled for weeks. No, in the NL this last week or so is a matter of sorting, to see who winds up winning the NL Central and who winds up having to play in the senior circuit’s play-in game. But if you figure the Cardinals win the division the way everyone expected months ago while the Reds and Pirates beat on each other this weekend and next, what do these games between the Pirates and Reds really mean, beyond temporary bragging rights before winner-take-all in the wild card on October 1?

On Saturday night, beyond one win or one loss, you could argue that what both teams got was intel that’s going to inform both teams’ biggest decision: Who starts that game on October 1? Both teams have a week-plus to make some tough decisions about what they’re going to have to ask their players to do, starting with the starters.

Let’s begin with A.J. Burnett’s showing against the Reds as the Pirates’ biggest potential takeaway, because as the best Batman would be quick to remind us, it’s been a while since concepts like “Pirates” and “October action” have been in the same conversation. In his previous pair of spins against the Reds this season, Burnett was anything but dominant, notching a textbook six-inning, three-run quality start in April and a bashing in July where the Reds scored five and put 13 men on base in 5 2/3 innings.

So seeing Burnett throw seven strong innings against a Reds lineup that had Joey Votto in it was very nice. It’s also important to remember Shin-Soo Choo wasn’t playing. Choo hasn’t entirely owned Burnett, but he’s done some damage -- three extra-base hits and three walks in 28 plate appearances -- and he’s the best leadoff hitter in the league. Add in Ryan Ludwick having good at-bats against Burnett now that he’s back in action, and I wouldn’t be so sure to say Burnett is the guy the Pirates must start in sudden-death action. Even allowing for the small sample sizes that are implicit with postseason play, Burnett got clobbered in a pair of Game 5 starts for the Yankees in 2009 (in the ALCS against the Angels, and against the Phillies in the World Series) and took another beating in the 2010 ALCS against the Rangers, a track record which helps explain why he’d get hooked in the sixth against the Tigers in the 2011 LDS while up by three runs. How much faith do you want to put in his Steel City renaissance, in sudden death?

But if not Burnett, who? Rookie Gerrit Cole, perhaps? Maybe Francisco Liriano, because the veteran lefty owns Choo going back to their long association in the AL Central (.412 OPS, with 10 whiffs in 32 PAs), and has done well against Votto as well. Not that Votto gets completely spavined by tough southpaws with an .845 OPS against his .976 OPS versus right-handers, but this year alone he’s losing 70 points of average and OBP and 60 points of slugging against southpaws. Using a total-offense metric like FanGraphs’ weight On-Base Average (wOBA), you can see the Reds’ .317 wOBA rates a decidedly mediocre 14th in the majors to the Pirates’ .310. If you had a chance to mitigate the damage that Votto or Choo might do against your team, to negate even that seemingly slender advantage on offense, wouldn’t you?

The second big takeaway from Saturday night was Jason Grilli getting the save, his first since July 21 and his first since his trip to the DL. Read into it what you will, whether a full loss of faith that top setup man Mark Melancon can nail down ninth-inning leads after his blown save on Wednesday night against the Padres, renewed confidence that Grilli is back, or an exaggerated sense of importance for who gets to wear the one “closer” merit badge in the clubhouse.

We can rail about this sort of thing because of the outsized significance that gets attached to every team’s designated saves-generator. But if Grilli’s getting this save and one or two more before season’s end gives Bucs skipper Clint Hurdle the confidence to put his pen pieces back in the order he had them in until Grilli got hurt, this could be a happy development. It’s also interesting that it might come at the exact moment the Cardinals are coming to the realization that their journeyman-turned-closer, Edward Mujica, might not be the perfect answer. If Grilli can handle the ninth with Melancon, Bryan Morris and lefties Justin Wilson and Tony Watson in front of him, that sort of pen depth is a big part of the reason why the Pirates are here in the first place.

As for the Reds, if I’m Dusty Baker, I don’t invest this outcome with any particular significance whatsoever. Maybe that suits a lot of preconceived notions people have about Baker’s management style, but after this one loss I wouldn’t rule out starting Homer Bailey in a sudden-death game against the Pirates in a week. Bailey had already notched two quality starts against Pittsburgh earlier in the year, not to mention last year’s no-hitter against them. Mat Latos hasn’t done better than that against the Pirates this season, and turning to Bronson Arroyo hasn’t turned out so well in the past where the postseason is concerned. Tabbing Mike Leake in his breakthrough season would be a gutsy call, probably one that Dusty doesn’t make.

No, exasperating as Bailey can be for his seeming inconsistency, he might perfectly reflect the Reds themselves: capable of dominating at any time against anybody. Maybe sudden-death baseball will bring out the best in him. Maybe it will be Burnett’s big chance to completely close the door on his past rap for bombing with the Bombers in the postseason. Call Saturday night a dress rehearsal for both men, and we’ll see where they’re at in 10 days.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

At 10:21 p.m. ET on Friday, this tweet appeared in my feed:

Baseball nirvana RT @harrypav: Reds/Bucs? tied. O's/Rays? tied. Rangers/Royals? tied.

— Wendy Thurm (@hangingsliders) September 21, 2013

It reminded me of a piece that Jerry Crasnick wrote a few weeks back in which he argued that September -- and not October -- is the best month for baseball. We saw why on Friday night.

But as exciting as the Rays-Orioles and Rangers-Royals games were, it was the Pirates-Reds game that really captured my attention. The Bucs led 5-2 after eight innings thanks to dominant pitching from Francisco Liriano, but even though he had thrown just 94 pitches, manager Clint Hurdle decided to remove him in favor of Mark Melancon for the ninth.

This decision was particularly vexing because the Reds had two left-handed hitters due up (Joey Votto and Jay Bruce), and Liriano absolutely dominates lefties. Entering Friday, lefties had a .319 OPS against Liriano -- yes, that's OPS -- which would be the second-lowest mark in MLB history for a pitcher who made at least 20 starts.

The Reds, as you are probably aware, have a lineup anchored by lefties, as Votto, Bruce and Shin-Soo Choo are arguably their three best position players, and Liriano shut them all down tonight. The trio was 0-for-9 with a walk against Liriano on Friday, and when those guys are shut down the Reds have a hard time scoring because the rest of lineup is otherwise filled with OBP sinkholes.

Nonetheless, Hurdle removed Liriano despite the matchup advantages, Liriano's modest pitch count, and the fact that he hadn't allow a runner past first base in innings six through eight. It was a decision that would haunt him.

To be fair, Melancon retired the two lefties he faced, but he wasn't sharp and neither was the Pirates' defense. With two outs and a man on first, shortstop Jordy Mercer made an awful throwing error that extended the inning and allowed a run to score. And then, after a Zack Cozart single to put runners on the corners, pinch-runner Billy Hamilton stole second base. That set the stage for Devin Mesoraco, who fouled off a number of breaking balls with two strikes -- Melancon's stuff looked flat -- before hitting a sharp one-hopper to Pedro Alvarez at third. Alvarez couldn't handle it, and even though the ball barely trickled to the outfield, Hamilton was able to score from second to tie the game. (This just in -- he's fast.)

For the record, I first-guessed the decision to remove Liriano when the inning began, and I still don't understand it.

An inning later, Votto hit an opposite-field homer off of right-hander Kyle Farnsworth, and Aroldis Chapman closed it out to give the Reds a 6-5 victory.

The good news for the Pirates is that they are still all but assured a playoff spot, but they are now tied with the Reds, two games behind the Cardinals, who won again. The Reds and Bucs play five more times in the regular season, and if I were a betting man I'd guess the Cardinals will end up holding on to the division lead as Pittsburgh and Cincy will beat each other up over the next week.

Liriano looms large

The real silver lining for the Bucs is Liriano, who is lined up to pitch a wild-card game and is pretty much Reds kryptonite. In fact, if a Reds-Pirates wild-card game happens and Liriano is on the hill, Cincy skipper Dusty Baker needs to bench Choo and possibly Bruce as well.

Choo is second in the NL with a .423 OBP, but he has a .207/.345/.243 slash line versus southpaws, which is fueled by 13 hit by pitches. (Liriano hasn't even hit a batter all season, so Choo shouldn't expect that to help him.) Bruce maintains his power against southpaws (.454 slugging) but has a sub-.300 OBP.

Between Chris Heisey and Billy Hamilton, the Reds have a couple of good options who would have a platoon advantage against Liriano, and it's pretty clear that Choo has no shot against him. Dusty Baker does not strike me as the kind of manager to make that kind of call, but it would be the right one.

But that's probably a debate for another day, as a lot is going to happen between now and Oct. 1. Let's just enjoy September.

The NL Central is the nexus of competitive baseball in the National League. Two of the Central's heavyweights, the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, will match up against each other over the weekend. With nine games left in the season, the Pirates trail the first-place Cardinals by a game and the Reds trail by two, so this series has a litany of postseason implications.

If the Reds, who have been stuck in third place since late June, should happen to sweep the Pirates, could they also jump ahead of the Cardinals? If the Pirates sweep the Reds, could they finish in first place for the first time since 1992? To quote Terrell Owens, "Get your popcorn ready." As you prepare for a fun weekend of pennant-race baseball, here are some keys you should be paying attention to in the Reds-Pirates series.

1. Billy Hamilton. The 23-year-old speedster has made waves throughout his minor league career, racking up 395 stolen bases in 479 attempts since 2009. Between Single-A Bakersfield and Double-A Pensacola last year, Hamilton hit .311 with a .410 on-base percentage. Those numbers dropped this year in his first stint with Triple-A Louisville, but that didn't prevent the Reds from giving him a taste of the big leagues, calling him up at the beginning of September. He made his first start on Wednesday against the Astros, going 3-for-4 with a double, two walks and four stolen bases. Otherwise, the Reds have mostly been using him as a pinch runner. Hamilton is a 9-for-9 stealing bases overall. Hamilton's speed could make the difference in a close game. Pirates catchers have thrown out runners at the third-highest rate in the National League this year at 33 percent, trailing only the Cardinals and Dodgers.

2. Andrew McCutchen. He has a strong case for the National League MVP award, sitting on a .325/.408/.520 line with 27 stolen bases and plus defense in center field. Players like Starling Marte and Russell Martin have been huge for the Pirates, but the Bucs have gone as McCutchen has gone. It will be up to Reds manager Dusty Baker and his pitching staff to neutralize the 26-year-old throughout the series.

3. The Reds' on-base machines. Joey Votto and Shin-Soo Choo have on-base percentages north of .425, which would make them the first teammates to accomplish the feat since Todd Helton and Larry Walker in 2001. Votto, at .433, has had an MVP-caliber season, leading the league in walks and OBP while hitting .307 with 23 home runs. As much as people have lauded Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce for the Reds' success, the primary credit should go to Votto and Choo. If the Reds are able to score a bunch of runs against the Pirates, it will be because Votto and Choo continue to get on base. The Pirates will attempt to neutralize them by starting lefties Francisco Liriano and Jeff Locke in the series. Votto hits .262 against left-handers, while Choo is hitting .207 with no home runs.

4. Pirates' defensive shifts. Recently, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review published a fantastic article detailing the ways in which the Pirates have succeeded since adopting a more modern view of defense. Thanks to Baseball Prospectus alum Dan Fox and his use of historical batted-ball data, the Pirates changed their approach to defense and began repositioning their players based on a number of factors. According to Sawchik, the Pirates have shifted their infield well over 400 times this season compared to 105 last year and 87 times in 2011. Will it matter against the Reds, who lead the league in walks but rank eighth in batting average?

5. Homer Bailey. Last month, Chad Dotson wrote about how Bailey has turned into an ace for the Reds. The right-hander has had two no-hitters within the span of one year (September 2012 and July this year). Dotson pointed out that Bailey has added velocity to his fastball, which has improved his strikeout rate, and has mastered a split-fingered fastball that has improved his ground ball rate. Bailey is slated to go up against Pirates veteran A.J. Burnett on Saturday.

6. Francisco Liriano. Liriano has been a great find for the Pirates, rebounding from an ERA north of 5.00 in each of the past two seasons to 2.92 this year. As good as he has been, though, he is prone to a blow-up every now and then. On Sept. 4, he allowed seven runs in three innings against the lowly Brewers. On Aug. 24, the Giants tagged him for four runs in four innings. At Coors Field on Aug. 9, Liriano was charged with 10 runs while recording just seven outs. Overall, Liriano has averaged exactly a strikeout per inning pitched while drastically lowering his walk rate. If the Pirates get the good Liriano on Friday night against Mat Latos, they will be in good shape.

Bill Baer is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog.

Web Gems are fun. Players like them. Fans like them. There's no reason not to like them. They've been a staple on "Baseball Tonight" since the term was coined by then-producer Judson Burch prior to the 2000 season.

They're not necessarily a predictive statistic when it comes to indicating present or future defensive performance. But they give you a good sense of who in baseball is making the most eye-popping, wow-inducing plays, in the opinions of our production crew and analysts.

We're nearing the end of another season's worth of Web Gems and with that in mind, I thought I'd share some of the fun Web Gem stats that our group has compiled.

• Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado leads the majors with 18 Web Gems, a half-dozen more than the second player on the list, Diamondbacks outfielder Gerardo Parra.

We should have known that Machado would be the leader this year. He had seven in only 51 games last season, which was a 22-Web Gem pace.

This could be the first time there has been that big a gap between the Web Gem champ and the runner-up since 2009, when Ryan Zimmerman had 19 and runner-up Mark Reynolds had 13. Zimmerman's 19 are the most in any season in our five-year database.

• A brief word on Reynolds, who often gets mocked when we make reference to Web Gem historical stats on Twitter. There was a time when he was quite good at making the highlight-reel play. In the past five seasons, Reynolds has 39 Web Gems, the fourth-most of anyone in the majors.

• Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips has the most Web Gems in the past five seasons with 52. He has never been a single-season Web Gem champion.

Phillips was runner-up in both 2010 (to Troy Tulowitzki) and 2012 (to Alcides Escobar). Phillips is the only player in baseball to have at least 10 Web Gems in each of the past four seasons.

Machado's 25 Web Gems the past two seasons are the most in the majors in that span. Escobar is at the top with 35 in the past three seasons.

• Phillips has been the No. 1 Web Gem four times this season. That's one shy of the major league lead, shared by Parra and Houston Astros outfielder Brandon Barnes.

• Three players have had at least six No. 1 Gems in a season in the past five years -- Reynolds in 2009, Tulowitzki in 2010 and Escobar in 2012.

• Carlos Gomez has had the most No. 1 Web Gems during the past five seasons with 13.

Other players in double figures are Tulowitzki (12, though none this year), Phillips (11), Escobar (11) and Evan Longoria (10).

• The Royals have the most Web Gems by any team in the majors this season with 44, five more than the Orioles and nine more than the Twins. The Cardinals and Rays rank last in Web Gems with 17.

• The Mets lead the majors in No. 1 Web Gems with 11, one more than the Reds.

• If you're a major league aspirant and want to make Web Gems, your best bet season is to be a center fielder or a third baseman. Center fielders this season have 145 Web Gems, two more than those who play the hot corner.

• The rarest of Gems is the catcher gem. Catchers have 13 Web Gems this season, less than half as many as their battery counterparts (pitchers have 28).

The National League playoff teams are all bet set -- with the Nationals losing last night and the Reds beating the Astros in 13 innings you can pretty much write off the Nationals -- so Eric Karabell and myself look at some key injuries to pay attention to these final days.

Quick thoughts on the Nationals' ninth-inning 6-5 comeback win over Craig Kimbrel and the Braves in the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader ...

• How rare of a blow-up was it for Craig Kimbrel? It was the first time he'd allowed three runs in game in his career and just the third time in two seasons he's allowed more than one run. He'd walked two batters in a game just three times previously in 2013, and in one of those appearances one of the walks was intentional.
• So great job by Adam LaRoche to start the inning by working the walk on the 3-2 fastball. A little surprising that Kimbrel didn't go to the slider there. Lefties were hitting .068 against the slider -- with 33 strikeouts and no walks in 44 plate appearances ending with that pitch. Basically, when Kimbrel gets to two strikes, the slider is unhittable.
• From there, an infield single, another walk, an RBI groundout and the rare error from Andrelton Simmons that allowed the winning runs to score.
• Where is Jayson Werth on your MVP ballot? He had an RBI double off Mike Minor in the Nationals' three-run first inning and is hitting .322/.398/.536 with 23 home runs and 74 RBIs. Certainly he's been a huge key in keeping the Nationals from disintegrating with a monster second half in which he's hit .352 with 41 RBIs in 52 games. Still, he missed all but one game in May, and those 30 missing games count against him. He's been Washington's most valuable position player, but I'm not sure he'd crack my top-10 MVP ballot due to the injury.
• The Nationals' chances to catch the Reds are still pretty slim, sitting 4½ games back heading into Tuesday night's games. Put it this way: If Washington goes 10-2 in its final 12 games, it needs Cincinnati to go 5-6 over its final 11 to match the Reds at 90 wins. Now, that's possible; the Reds do play the Pirates in six of those games, but they also get the Astros twice more and the Mets three times next week. The Nationals face the Marlins after the Braves but finish up with a six-game road trip to St. Louis and Arizona. The Cardinals will still be fighting for the division title, although Arizona may be thinking about golf by then. Our playoff odds from coolstandings.com gives the Nationals a 4 percent chance of making it. Things will look a lot more interesting after Tuesday night, however, if Washington wins again and Cincinnati loses.
• What's been the big turnaround for the Nats? On Aug. 19 they were 60-64. Since then they've gone 20-6. Well, the schedule has been key. Twenty-two of those 26 games have come against sub-.500 teams (thank you, NL East). They've hit .293/.359/.479 over those 26 games. Thank you, bad pitching. OK, Denard Span and Ryan Zimmerman finally got going.
• Washington starts rookie Tanner Roark in the nightcap against Freddy Garcia -- yes, that Freddy Garcia -- so it's a good opportunity for another win since Freddy Garcia is Freddy Garcia. Roark is making his third start, but he's kind of been a good-luck charm of late with a 6-0 record. I'm guessing Kimbrel is unavailable, and maybe Luis Avilan as well. Kimbrel threw 27 pitches, Avilan 13, and there's little incentive for Fredi Gonzalez to burn through his best relievers with division all but clinched.
• The Reds start Mike Leake in Houston against Jordan Lyles. The Nats' chances may be slim, but at least they've given their fans a reason to watch that out-of-town scoreboard.

Just more than two weeks ago, the Texas Rangers were in pretty good position, leading the A’s by 2.5 games in the American League West and coming off a 20-7 August that had them angling for the best record in the league, even with the Red Sox and Tigers in the lead as September began.

In other words, they were at least making preliminary plans on how to line up their postseason rotation. Matt Garza, acquired from the Cubs on July 22 for four players, would be a big part of that rotation, slotting in behind Yu Darvish and perhaps ahead of Derek Holland. He was one of the big fish at the trade deadline, the top-of-the-rotation starter teams desired to bulk up their rotation.

Well, Garza has proven to be one of the key deadline acquisitions -- only in a negative way. The Rangers are a disastrous 2-12 in September, collapsing down the stretch for the second straight season, and Garza has become the symbol of this horridness. He had another poor effort in Monday’s 6-2 loss to the Rays, getting knocked out in the fifth inning while allowing eight hits and six runs. Over his past nine starts, he has a 5.72 ERA and just one quality start. He has hardly been an improvement over the replacement-level pitchers the Rangers had been throwing out there.

Garza is not the only reason the Rangers have struggled. Their success in August was masked somewhat by their schedule -- they played only four games against winning teams in the month, beating up on the likes of the Astros, Mariners and White Sox. As the schedule got tougher, the Rangers’ weaknesses have been highlighted. As Gerry Fraley pointed out on Twitter, the Rangers haven’t led now in seven consecutive games, the first time that has happened since the franchise moved from Washington. That was 1972. The Rangers have a great bullpen, but they can’t get the lead.

Meanwhile, Alex Cobb delivered another solid outing for the Rays, with 10 strikeouts over eight innings, improving to 9-3 with a 3.02 ERA and giving the Rays temporary breathing room in the wild-card race (one game over Texas, 1.5 over Cleveland).

With that game in mind, speaking of playoff rotations, how do the contenders line up? Let's check some of the things managers are looking at.

Atlanta Braves
Mike Minor probably lines up as their No. 1, but it’s possible that Kris Medlen slots ahead of Julio Teheran even though Teheran has better numbers on the season, especially if the Braves lock up home field for the first round (they currently have the best record in the NL). Medlen has pitched well of late, but he also has a sizable home/road split (2.45 ERA at home, 4.27 on the road).

Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are the easiest one-two on the board, with Ricky Nolasco (terrific with the Dodgers other than his last start) and Hyun-Jin Ryu after that, perhaps depending on who finishes best over these final two weeks.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers who started on Monday in the NL are lined up to also start the wild-card game, which takes place on Tuesday after the season ends on Sept. 29, given four days between starts. For the Pirates, that suggests that if they don’t win the division, A.J. Burnett draws the assignment for that game. Here:

Monday, Sept. 16: Pitch
Tuesday, Sept. 17: Off
Wednesday, Sept. 18: Off
Thursday, Sept. 19: Off
Friday, Sept. 20: Off
Saturday, Sept. 21: Pitch
Sunday, Sept. 22: Off
Monday, Sept. 23: Off
Tuesday, Sept. 24: Off
Wednesday, Sept. 25: Off
Thursday, Sept. 26: Pitch
Friday, Sept. 27: Off
Saturday, Sept. 28: Off
Sunday, Sept. 29: Off
Monday, Sept. 30: Off
Tuesday, Oct. 1: Start wild-card game

Now, that’s assuming the NL Central division race goes down to the season’s final day and rotations aren't altered. However, the Pirates have another option: Francisco Liriano is scheduled to start this coming Friday, then again on Wednesday the 25th. So he could also pitch the wild-card game on five days’ rest if he doesn’t start the season finale on short rest (otherwise that would be Gerrit Cole’s game). If the Pirates end up facing the Reds, Liriano could get the start in an attempt to neutralize the Reds’ left-handed batters of Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

St. Louis Cardinals
Using the same math we did for the Pirates, the Cardinals would be lined up with Shelby Miller (Sunday’s starter) or Lance Lynn (Monday’s starter) in the wild-card game. Adam Wainwright starts Wednesday and Monday, putting him in line for a Saturday start in the final weekend and out of the wild-card game (he’d be pitching on two days’ rest). Again, all that is contingent on the division not being settled until the very end.

Cincinnati Reds
Perhaps the most interesting result from Monday was Johnny Cueto's making his first start for the Reds since June 28 and going five innings and 82 pitches against the Astros, allowing no runs. Yes, it was the Astros, and Reds fans on Twitter said Cueto was bailed out a couple of times but that his curveball looked great. If Cueto can get up to 100 pitches, Dusty Baker has to consider him for the rotation. Of course, the Reds have to get past the wild-card game first, and Baker has Mat Latos or Homer Bailey lined up full rest to start that game, as he’s going with six starters this week (with a day off on Thursday). He’s starting Greg Reynolds on Wednesday against Houston, lining up Latos and Bailey to pitch against the Pirates (and Liriano and Burnett) on Friday and Saturday. Good stuff.

Boston Red Sox
Jon Lester is presumably the No. 1 here, although Clay Buchholz has shown good results in two starts since coming off a three-month DL stint. Jake Peavy and John Lackey would fill out the 3-4 spots in some order.

Oakland A’s
Bartolo Colon has the better season numbers, but would Jarrod Parker draw the A's Game 1 start? He was Oakland’s Game 1 starter last year as a rookie, losing twice in the Division Series to Justin Verlander. He’d been on a roll until Monday’s start against the Angels, going 9-1 with a 2.60 ERA in 21 starts since struggling early in the season. Colon had a little blip in early August with back-to-back five-run starts, but has a 1.13 ERA over his past four starts. This could be a matchup thing: If the A’s play a team with a heavy dosage of left-handed hitters (like Boston), maybe Parker gets the start since his changeup is so effective against lefties. Against a right-handed team (Detroit), maybe Colon draws Game 1. After that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see rookie Sonny Gray get Game 3 over the homer-prone Dan Straily or A.J. Griffin.

Detroit Tigers
Two questions: (1) Anibal Sanchez or Justin Verlander as the No. 2 starter behind Max Scherzer (I’d go Sanchez, as he’s simply better than Verlander right now); (2) Has Rick Porcello jumped over Doug Fister as the Tigers' fourth guy? Porcello has pitched well his past two starts, but those came against the Mariners and the White Sox. Before that, the Red Sox pounded him for nine runs. But Fister has also been inconsistent, with two seven-run starts mixed in with a one-run and no-run effort in his past four outings.

I’m not going to go through all the wild-card contenders, but since the AL wild-card game is played on Wednesday, Oct. 2, here’s each team’s probable wild-card starter:

Tampa Bay: David Price. He’s scheduled to go on Friday and next Wednesday, giving him six days of rest before the wild-card game.

Texas: Martin Perez, Matt Garza or Alexi Ogando. Right now, Yu Darvish is scheduled to go Thursday/Tuesday/Sunday. If Darvish isn’t need on that final day, he gets the wild-card game.

Cleveland: Zach McAllister, Scott Kazmir or Corey Kluber. The Indians have an off day next week, so they could end up skipping Danny Salazar and starting Ubaldo Jimenez next Tuesday and then again on the final day of the season (if needed) or the wild-card game (if not needed the final day).

Baltimore: Miguel Gonzalez or Scott Feldman.

New York: With an off day, next week, the Yankees can skip Phil Hughes and go with Hiroki Kuroda (Tuesday), CC Sabathia (Wednesday), Ivan Nova (Thursday), Andy Pettitte (Friday), Hughes (Saturday), Kuroda (Sunday). So, it could be Sabathia, Nova or Pettitte in the wild-card game.

Kansas City: James Shields. The Royals have an off day on Thursday, so Shields is slated to pitch again on Sunday, then next Friday, which sets him up for the wild-card game on four days’ rest.

Whew. Got all that? And I'm sure I'll hear it from Nationals fans for not including them ...

Let's be honest: The American League wild-card "race" is more like two marathon runners stumbling to the finish line. As my colleague Jim Caple points out, over the past month the Rangers are 11-16, the Rays are 13-16, the Orioles are 14-15, the Yankees are 15-13, the Royals 16-14 and the Indians 16-12. The six wild-card contenders are a combined one game under .500 since Aug. 15. Not exactly gripping baseball going on here.

At-bat of the day: Justin Morneau hit the go-ahead single in the eighth inning of Pittsburgh's 3-2 win over the Cubs, but how about Josh Donaldson's first-inning, two-out homer to give the A's an early 2-0 lead over the Rangers. Oakland would go on to a 5-1 victory, completing the sweep and essentially wrapping up the division title. By the way, Baseball-Reference AL WAR leaders: Mike Trout 8.7, Donaldson 7.4, Robinson Cano 7.1, Chris Sale 6.9, Miguel Cabrera 6.8. FanGraphs: Trout 10.0, Cabrera 7.4, Donaldson 7.1. Sounds like Donaldson has some MVP arguments, at least based on WAR.

Pitching performance of the day: Clay Buchholz walked four in six innings but allowed just two hits and an unearned run in improving to 11-0 with a 1.51 ERA. Buchholz is at 95.1 innings. Pitchers since 1950 with a lower ERA, at least 100 innings: Bob Gibson, 1968 (1.12); Ted Abernathy, 1967 (1.27); Bruce Sutter, 1977 (1.34); Mel Rojas, 1992 (1.43); John Hiller, 1973 (1.44); Jesse Orosco, 1983 (1.47).


Most important win: The Indians waited out a long rain delay to beat the White Sox 7-1 and climb to a half-game behind the Rangers and Rays. Maybe it will be Cleveland's year: Matt Carson, who had appeared in nine games as a defensive replacement, made his first start and went 3-for-3 with a home run, two RBIs and a stolen base.

Most important loss: The Rays led 3-0 in the seventh when David Price tired and then 4-2 in the eighth when the Twins scored four runs -- all after two outs and nobody on. Ryan Doumit homered off Joel Peralta, Trevor Plouffe singled, Josh Willingham walked and then Josmil Pinto smacked a three-run homer, sending the Rays to a devastating defeat. The Rays' next 11 games: Rangers (4), Orioles (4), at Yankees (3).

Monday's best pitching matchup: Matt Garza versus Alex Cobb (Rangers at Rays, 7:10 ET). Good news here for the Indians, Orioles, Yankees and Royals: The two wild-card leaders will beat up on each other over the next four days, opening the door for games to be gained. Garza has a 5.16 ERA over his past eight starts -- with just one quality start. The "best" deadline trade acquisition has been a huge flop.

Player to watch: Johnny Cueto is making his first start since June 28. The Reds are 3.5 behind the Pirates and Cardinals, but are now just 4.5 ahead of the streaking Nationals, who have won eight of nine. It would still take a sizable collapse for the Reds to blow it, but stranger things have happened.

Your team is out of it, but you still love baseball. You intend keep checking box scores and watching the big games these final two weeks. You'll watch the playoffs, but you need a team to root for.

So, who to pick from the remaining teams in contention? I mean, you could just go with the team that's gone the longest without a World Series title -- that would either be the Indians (1948) or the Rangers (never). You could go with the biggest underdog -- probably the Pirates, who hadn't had a winning season since 1992. You could go with the smallest payroll -- that would be the Rays. Or maybe you just want Bud Selig to hand Alex Rodriguez that World Series MVP trophy.

But there are various factors you should consider in order to make the correct choice. I've weighted five different categories: misery (how much suffering have those franchise's fans gone through?), 2013 storyline (what made them interesting?), star factor (stars make October baseball more intriguing), payroll (high, medium or low payroll?) and fan support (do their own fans care?). The first three categories are judged on a five-point scale (five being highest) and payroll and fan support are judged on a three-point scale. Total maximum points is thus 21. Ties are broken by the team that's gone longest without winning a World Series.

14. New York Yankees: 12 points
Misery: 1
2013 storyline: 4
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

No, Yankees fans, suffering through Jayson Nix, Austin Romine and Brent Lillibridge doesn't count as misery. There's no denying this has been a compelling season in the Bronx, with all the injuries and a team of, in many cases, replacement-level players hanging in the race. Throw in the A-Rod saga and Mariano Rivera's final campaign, and the Yankees certainly would make October fascinating if they sneak in. Still, they're the Yankees, even with Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira injured and CC Sabathia pitching more like Andy Hawkins.

13. Atlanta Braves: 12 points
Misery: 3
2013 storyline: 2
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 2

It's been 18 years now since the Braves won their only World Series during their glorious run of 14 consecutive playoff appearances. It's also been 12 years since the Braves won a playoff series, the 2001 Division Series. While they lack that one big star, perhaps the most interesting aspect is their youth -- Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Craig Kimbrel are all 25 or younger. It's a young team that's going to be around a long time. But it's also a team that's doing exactly what everyone expected, minus the expected competition from the Nationals.

12. Tampa Bay Rays: 12 points
Misery: 3
2013 storyline: 2
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 3
Fan support: 1

Heres the deal: Maybe we're getting a little Rays fatigue. OK, we get it; small payroll, genius manager, genius front office, crummy stadium. But this is the sixth year since that shocking 2008 World Series appearance -- isn't it time the team actually does something in the postseason? Plus, this isn't really that compelling a team, and if they do make it, we have to watch postseason games played indoors. Then again, I'd rather have a World Series game indoors than in that 20-something wind chill last year in Detroit.

11. St. Louis Cardinals: 13 points
Misery: 1
2013 storyline: 3
Star factor: 4
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 3

The Cardinals will be back in the postseason for the fourth time in five seasons and 10th in 14 going back to 2000. It's not quite a dynasty on the level of the 1990s Braves or 1995-to-present Yankees (although Cardinals fans will be quick to point out they've won one more championship in this run than the Braves did). With all their recent success, they score well in star factor, although two of their best players are the underappreciated Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig (although Craig is out right now with a foot sprain). The Cardinals have had an interesting season, with the gutsy move of Carpenter to second base, a rotation now relying on two rookies and Edward Mujica taking over as closer. But they've won two titles recently, so it's hard to muster up much enthusiasm for them.

10. Cincinnati Reds: 13 points
Misery: 4
2013 storyline: 2
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 2

No team has had a season closer to what you would have expected from them on paper than the Reds. The rotation has been very good, even with Johnny Cueto missing a lot of time; Joey Votto has been an MVP candidate; Shin-Soo Choo gave the team the leadoff hitter it missed last year; Jay Bruce has hit home runs; and Dusty Baker struggled to find a No. 2 hitter. The team has been one of the healthiest in the majors, a few injuries in the bullpen notwithstanding. It's a fun team to watch with Votto, Choo, Bruce and Brandon Phillips; Mat Latos and Homer Bailey turning into a dynamic one-two punch in the rotation; Bronson Arroyo keepng hitters off-balance with his broad arsenal of stuff; Aroldis Chapman firing 100-mph fastballs in the ninth; and the anxiety (if you're a Reds fan) of wondering how Dusty will screw it up.

9. Boston Red Sox: 14 points
Misery: 2
2013 storyline: 5
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

Red Sox fans will argue that the past two seasons caused undue amounts of misery, but this is still a franchise with a lot of recent success. What's interesting about this team is its lack of star power once you get past Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz. In fact, Shane Victorino, the much-criticized free-agent signing, leads the team in WAR at 5.6 and closer Koji Uehara -- who took over the role only after injuries to Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey -- has had one of the best relief seasons in history, with a 1.06 ERA and an amazing .126 batting average allowed. And remember: Most people didn’t even pick the Red Sox to make the playoffs. It's not exactly an underdog team, but it is a team that has exceeded expectations.

8. Kansas City Royals: 14 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 3
Star factor: 2
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 2

Here’s a weird thing: With the Astros moving over to the American League, the AL has seven of the worst teams in attendance, with only the Marlins cracking the bottom eight from the NL. And while you can point to market size or team quality, consider that the Rockies, playing in a midsize market with a lousy team, are averaging over 34,000 fans per game -- more than 12,000 per game more than the A’s, Royals, Indians or Marlins. Of course we'd like to see the Royals make the playoffs, since they haven't done so since 1985, but is it really a team built to do any damage in October? Well, possibly. They don't score a lot of runs, but the rotation and bullpen are good enough to get on a roll.

7. Texas Rangers: 15 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 3
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

It's easy to root for the Rangers. After all, they've never won a World Series and were one strike away in 2011 before losing in excruciatingly painful fashion. They lost in the wild-card game last year and have had to battle through injuries to the pitching staff and the suspension of Nelson Cruz and loss of Josh Hamilton. On the other hand, a lot of the misery has been self-inflicted. Ron Washington mismanaged that 2011 World Series, they choked down the stretch last year and Cruz wasn't suspended for helping old ladies cross the street. On the other hand, Yu Darvish would be fun to watch in October, even if the Metroplex is more interested by then in the Cowboys' backup fullback.

6. Cleveland Indians: 15 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 5
Star factor: 2
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 1

Here come the Indians! They are now just a half-game out of the wild card (thank you, slumping Rays and Rangers). So, yes, there's been misery. Lots of it. I would say the Indians arguably deserve to top this list, except their own fans haven't even bothered to show up this year; only the Rays have averaged fewer per game. If the Indians do get into the wild-card game, Ubaldo Jimenez could be a tough foe to face considering his pitching of late (assuming he would be in line to start the game).

5. Oakland A's: 16 points
Misery: 4
2013 storyline: 4
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 3
Fan support: 2

As Matt Meyers wrote here on Friday, the amazing thing about the A's is they're doing this the exact same way as last year: without big stars, without a slew of high draft picks, without -- of course -- a large payroll or great fan support (they are not large in numbers, but they're passionate). Josh Donaldson leads the team in WAR at 7.3, but he's hardly a household name outside of the Bay Area. Bartolo Colon leads the pitching staff in WAR, which is really one of the most incredible stats of the season: A team that is going to win its division is led by a 40-year-old with the highest percentage of body fat in the majors. How can you not love this team?

4. Detroit Tigers: 16 points
Misery: 4
2013 storyline: 3
Star factor: 5
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer have garnished all the headlines this year, and deservedly so, although once again it hasn't been the easiest trek to a division title despite all that star power. The Tigers have an interesting misery rating, with World Series losses in 2006 and 2012, those awful teams of the early 2000s, and all the high expectations in recent seasons. Is this finally the year?

3. Baltimore Orioles: 16 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 4
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 2

It's been 30 years since the Orioles have made it to the World Series. From Jeffrey Maier to 14 consecutive losing seasons to last year's heartbreaking playoff loss to the Yankees, O's fans have certainly suffered. Unfortunately, they just can't get on that five- or six-game winning streak they need, and we're probably looking at a playoffs without Chris Davis and Manny Machado.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers: 17 points
Misery: 3
2013 storyline: 5
Star factor: 5
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

With Clayton Kershaw, Yasiel Puig, Zack Greinke, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez and maybe Matt Kemp -- not mention Magic Johnson in the owner's box -- there’s no denying the star power on this team. Their regular season has certainly been one of the more interesting in recent years, with a 30-42 record through June 21 nearly leading to manager Don Mattingly getting fired, followed by a 42-8 stretch that was the best in the majors since the 1942 Cardinals. After dropping to sixth in the NL in attendance in the final year of the McCourt regime, Dodger fans have returned in full force, leading the majors and up nearly 5,000 per game from last year. I will say this though: While they haven't won (or been to) a World Series since 1988, the misery suffered under Frank McCourt has been vastly overstated -- the Dodgers made the playoffs four times in eight years under him. A lot of franchises should enjoy such misery.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: 18 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 5
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 3
Fan support: 2

No surprise. The Pirates are more than just an underdog; they're a team with many great backstories, as well as a team that is just flat-out fun to watch and easy to root for. Obviously, the Pirates rate high in the misery and 2013 storyline categories. They are lower in the star factor once you get past MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, but that doesn't make then uninteresting. A rotation led by A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano isn't lacking for backstories, rookie Gerrit Cole will refreshingly continue to pitch even though he could top 200 innings if the Pirates go deep into the postseason and the bullpen duo of Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli were basically obtained off the scrap heap. Kudos to GM Neal Huntington for acquiring Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau down the stretch to improve the team's depth.

Some quick thoughts on Tuesday's results and a look forward to Wednesday.

Blown opportunity No. 1: The Orioles led the Yankees 4-1 after Chris Davis belted a big two-run homer in the fifth off Ivan Nova, but Alfonso Soriano and Mark Reynolds homered off Miguel Gonzalez in the sixth. Then it got interesting. Kevin Gausman had a one-two-three seventh inning, striking out Lyle Overbay and Brett Gardner, so Buck Showalter brought the rookie back out for the eighth. It's an inning Showalter might manage differently in an alternate universe. Alex Rodriguez doubled to lead off the inning, but Showalter left Gausman in to face Robinson Cano instead of bringing in lefty Brian Matusz. Cano singled to tie the game, and then Soriano homered again. No Matusz, no Tommy Hunter, no Francisco Rodriguez (until the lead had been surrendered). Hunter had pitched the day before but not two days prior. Matusz ended up pitching in the ninth anyway. Showalter put faith in his rookie, but Matusz versus Cano seemed like the obvious matchup there, with Hunter or Rodriguez facing Soriano.

Blown opportunity No. 2: Like the Orioles, the Indians had a chance to pick up a game on the Rays with Tampa Bay losing to Boston. They had 12 hits but grounded into three double plays, and the Royals won 6-3. Carlos Pena did not pinch-hit.

Blown opportunity No. 3: The A's led the Twins 3-2 in the eighth with a chance to pick up a game on the second-place Rangers, who would lose to the Pirates. The A's had lost just four games all season when they led heading into the eighth, but Sean Doolittle gave up a single and Ryan Cook entered to face Josh Willingham, who promptly deposited the baseball on the wrong side of the fence (for Oakland) -- the first homer Cook had allowed to a right-handed batter this season.

Pitching performance of the day: David Price allowed three hits in eight innings for the Rays. Unfortunately, two came in the same inning, as Boston scored twice in the fifth and Clay Buchholz and three relievers combined on a four-hit shutout.

At-bat of the night: Milwaukee's Wily Peralta had a no-hitter going in a 0-0 tie in the sixth inning against St. Louis. With two outs and Matt Carpenter on after a walk, Peralta fired a first-pitch, 95 mph fast one and Matt Holliday crushed it 426 feet to center field. The Cardinals went on to a 4-2 win.

Most important win: The Yankees climbed back to just two games behind the Rays.

Most important loss: Tough one for the Orioles, but at least Tampa Bay also lost. With St. Louis and Pittsburgh both winning, the Reds dropped three games behind the Cards and two behind the Pirates after losing to the Cubs (and Tony Cingrani left in the second inning with a back injury).

Wednesday's best pitching matchup: A.J. Burnett versus Matt Garza (Pirates at Rangers, 2:05 p.m. ET). The Rangers are now 3-8 over their past 11 games, averaging fewer than three runs per game in that stretch. Garza likely needs a big effort as the Pirates go for the sweep. He's allowed four-plus runs in six of his past seven starts, not exactly what the Rangers expected when they traded for him.

Players to watch: Pedro Alvarez, Pirates, and Curtis Granderson, Yankees. Two similar lefty hitters -- home runs when they connect, but connecting can be a problem. Over the past two weeks, Alvarez is hitting .143/.217/.238 and Granderson is hitting .135/.200/.243.

With Clay Buchholz returning to the Boston Red Sox's rotation with his first start since June 8 and resembling the pitcher who had started off 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA, it's a good time to examine the potential playoff rotations of the teams already locked into playoff spots. (Well, close to locking up playoff spots at least.)

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
Ricky Nolasco
Hyun-jin Ryu

Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, a guy who has allowed one run or no runs in nearly half his starts (14 out of 30). If there's one pitcher most likely to go on a dominant playoff run, he's the guy, the only issues being a pretty heavy workload this year (he's fifth in the majors in total pitches) and the fact that he has never been asked to make those five or six postseason starts necessary for an ace to lead his team into the World Series.

It's the next three starters, however, that give the Dodgers the best-on-paper rotation. Greinke has arguably been better than Kershaw of late, with a 1.58 ERA over his past 12 starts. Some still question Greinke's mental toughness but I'll take talent over some nebulous characterization of a player's ability. Nolasco has been brilliant with the Dodgers with an 8-1 record and 2.07 ERA and strong peripherals and Ryu has been consistent all year long.

You have two lefties, two righties, and and four guys throw strikes and limit home runs. It's clearly the best foursome going right now. Some may knock the lack of postseason experience -- Kershaw has two playoff starts, Greinke has three -- and point to the 2012 Giants as an example. Fine, I'll point to the 2010 Giants and argue that postseason experience doesn't really matter.

2. Boston Red Sox
Jon Lester
Clay Buchholz
Jake Peavy
John Lackey

If Buchholz is healthy and effective -- let's not declare him 100 percent just yet after one 74-pitch outing, no matter how good he looked in throwing five scoreless innings to beat the Rays on Tuesday -- I love this top four. Lester is pitching his best baseball since going into the downward spiral at the end of the 2011 season, Peavy has been solid since coming over to Boston and Lackey has been consistent all season (ignore the 9-12 record; he has received poor run support).

The issue here is that unless Buchholz is close to what he was in April and May, they lack a clear ace in the Kershaw/Greinke mold, but I like the depth and all four guys have the ability to dominate on any given day and pitch deep into a game.

3. Detroit Tigers
Max Scherzer
Justin Verlander
Anibal Sanchez
Doug Fister

I'm not too concerned by Scherzer having two bad outings in his past three starts. He's still the likely Game 1 starter for the Tigers based on his body of excellent work throughout the season. The bigger issue is the inconsistency of Verlander and Fister, both of whom have been much more hittable than the previous two seasons, and how Leyland lines up the rotation: Verlander ahead of Scherzer seems unlikely but do you start Verlander ahead of Sanchez? It's not that big of a factor, especially since only the Game 1 starter is likely to start twice in a five-game series, but it does potentially affect who starts the first game of the American League Championship Series.

4. Cincinnati Reds
Mat Latos
Homer Bailey
Bronson Arroyo
Mike Leake/Tony Cingrani

This is a very underrated group putting up solid numbers in a tough park to pitch in. Dusty Baker's dilemma: If the Reds end up in the wild-card game, do you start Latos or Bailey? It could depend on who the Reds play. If it's St. Louis, it should be Latos, whose fastball/slider combo is a better matchup against the right-handed-heavy St. Louis lineup (opponents are hitting .176 against Latos' slider). If it's the Pirates, Bailey may be the better matchup. Of course, that's assuming the remaining schedule lines up for that decision to be made. If the Reds are still battling for the division title, it could just fall to whoever is due up in the rotation.

5. Atlanta Braves
Mike Minor
Kris Medlen
Julio Teheran
Paul Maholm

Minor and Teheran have been excellent all season and have the luxury of handing the ball over to what has arguably been the game's best bullpen. (Interesting postseason decision: Will Fredi Gonzalez have Craig Kimbrel get four or five outs if the situation warrants it?) Anyway, Medlen has been on a roll lately so I could see him bumped ahead of the rookie Teheran in the postseason, even if Teheran has better season numbers. Maholm is a bit of a question mark as the No. 4 starter; in four starts since missing a month, he has a 4.03 and 14/11 SO/BB ratio.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates
1. Francisco Liriano
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Gerrit Cole
4. Charlie Morton

Liriano allowed one run in six innings in Pittsburgh's 5-4 win over Texas on Tuesday, improving to 16-7 with a 2.92 ERA -- that despite a couple recent poor outings. It's that inconsistency of late that could lead to Clint Hurdle giving the ball to Burnett in a possible wild-card or Game 1 of the division series. Again, it could depend on matchups: Liriano against the Reds in a wild-card game (to counteract lefty-swinging Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce) or Burnett against the Cardinals. Cole and Morton wouldn't be expected to go deep into games, but to provide six solid innings and turn the game over to the Pirates' bullpen.

7. Oakland A's
Jarrod Parker
Bartolo Colon
Sonny Gray
A.J. Griffin/Dan Straily

Parker has probably surpassed All-Star Colon as the team's No. 1. He had a no-decision on Tuesday, running his string of starts without a loss to 19. He has allowed more than three runs in a game just once since May 6. When he gets to two strikes, that changeup becomes one of the best pitches in the game: Batters are hitting .158 off it with 68 strikeouts in 158 at-bats. Gray has to slot ahead of Griffin or Straily, both of whom are homer-prone, with his excellent performance in six starts.

8. St. Louis Cardinals
Adam Wainwright
Shelby Miller
Joe Kelly
Michael Wacha

Those are the four I would go with right now, considering Lance Lynn has allowed four-plus runs in each of his past five starts and also struggled last postseason. That's a rotation with one stellar veteran, two rookies and one second-year guy. As I said, I don't put a lot of weight on postseason experience, but you do have to worry about how much Miller and Wacha may have left in October. It's also an all-righty foursome, and in a perfect world you may want a lefty in there to help create some balance or better matchups.

What do you think?