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• Just like that the Padres are interesting, climbing a game over .500 after winning six in a row at home over the Braves and Diamondbacks. Clayton Richard, who had been horrible (the Padres had won just one of his nine starts), was the star in Sunday's 4-1 win over Arizona, pitching eight innings although he struck out just one batter. How did the Padres get here, two games out of first place? Well, it helps that the NL West is so mediocre, but Richard has a 7.01 ERA and Edinson Volquez 5.87. There's some smoke and mirrors here, especially with Jason Marquis, who is 9-2 despite a high home run rate and a terrible strikeout-to-walk ratio. Their success has mostly been fueled by a solid offense -- although no one player has even 30 RBIs -- and underrated leadoff man Everth Cabrera (.382 OBP, 31 steals). Look, they'll have to find a way to upgrade the rotation because Richard isn't good, Volquez is inconsistent and Marquis' luck is due to run out, but in the NL West, anything is possible. Plus, it just feels good to be over .500 for the first time since April 6, 2011.
• Congrats to Torii Hunter for hitting his 300th career home run. Nice that it came in Minnesota, where he starred for many years. I can't say Hunter has been underrated -- he's made four All-Star teams and won nine Gold Glove Awards -- but he's sort of been underrated. The stat analysts were never huge fans of his because of his mediocre on-base percentages and he was hitting 25 home runs a year when the big sluggers were hitting 35-plus. He probably won a couple Gold Gloves after he'd lost or step or two in center, but you combine the defense, the power and the longevity and he's had a great career. Baseball-Reference has his career WAR at 48.3, which isn't really a Hall of Fame standard, although similar to another former Twins outfielder, Kirby Puckett, who was at 50.8
• The Rangers have scored two or fewer runs in six straight games -- the first time they've done that since 1986 -- but most distressing is that it came at home against the Indians and Blue Jays, not exactly two pitching-rich teams. They lost all six of those games, including Sunday's 7-2 loss to Chien-Ming Wang, who had been pounded in his first start of the season. Yes, the Rangers can point to the absence of Ian Kinsler and Mitch Moreland from the lineup, but since a 32-17 start they've gone 6-14 their past 20 games and hit just .238. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Rangers haven't played the Astros or Angels in those games and just once against the Mariners.
• Manny Machado doubles watch: He hit four more over the weekend, including this one on Saturday. That's 32 already, putting him on pace for 74. Incredible. The Orioles beat the Red Sox 6-3 on Sunday as Chris Davis hit his MLB-leading 23rd home run, climbing to 1.5 games behind Boston.
• After going 8-20 in May, the Royals looked dead. But now they've gone 11-4 in June after taking three of four from the Rays. That was after taking two of three from the Tigers. Those two series could have wiped out the Royals, but now they're 33-34 and, like the Padres, at least interesting. The pitching has allowed more than three runs just once this month, averaging 2.2 runs per game. George Brett hasn't really turned around the offense -- it has a .680 OPS in June compared to .684 through May -- although at least the Royals have hit six home runs their past six games.
• Corey Kluber? Sure, Corey Kluber. He's allowed one run in 16 innings his past two starts.

Another fun and interesting chat session included some heated debates on Mike Trout's defense, Manny Machado's WAR versus Miguel Cabrera's, whether the Rangers are worse than the four best teams in the AL East, the hype over Yasiel Puig, Jason Heyward versus Freddie Freeman, Jose Iglesias versus Andrelton Simmons and when the Cubs will make it back to the playoffs. Here's the complete chat wrap.

We did this All-Star exercise for the National League on Sunday night, so let's do the same thing for the American League: A month out from the All-Star Game, how does the roster potentially shape up?

In choosing the 34-man roster, I go with the fan balloting results for the position players and fill out the roster from there. In reality, the players vote for nine positional backups in the AL (including DH) and the first eight pitchers (five starters and three relievers) -- meaning the AL manager really has only eight spots to fill (and one of those is actually the final man vote on the Internet), from which he must fulfill the requirement of at least one All-Star per club. For the purpose of this review, I pretend the player vote doesn't exist. (All stats entering Monday's games.)

Catcher
Fans: 1. Joe Mauer; 2. Matt Wieters; 3. Carlos Santana.

Should start: Mauer.
Automatic: None.

Mauer is the clear choice here based on his .332/.414/.498 batting line. Or is he? He's started only 37 of his 56 games at catcher. Trouble is, who else gets the nod? Santana has the next-best hitting numbers, but he has started 21 games at first base or DH. Matt Wieters has an OBP about .300. The other candidate is Jason Castro of the Astros, and I have a feeling we may need the backup spot for him. We'll get the backup catcher later.

First base
Fans: 1. Chris Davis; 2. Prince Fielder; 3. Mike Napoli.

Should start: Davis.
Automatic: Fielder.

Davis' .333/.411/.684 line and league-leading 20 home runs should earn him the All-Star start even if he slows down between now and early July. Based on the WAR leaderboards, Fielder has plenty of competition for the backup job, but Fielder is a star and is once again putting up his usual strong numbers at the plate.

Second base
Fans: 1. Robinson Cano; 2. Dustin Pedroia; 3. Ian Kinsler.

Should start: Pedroia.
Automatic: Cano.

I can see the argument for Cano as the starter; he has been the superior player the past couple of years. But it's not really that close right now with Pedroia posting a .383 wOBA and Cano at .357. Heading into Monday night, Baseball-Reference rates Pedroia as the most valuable position player in the AL, while FanGraphs as him as sixth-best.

Third base
Fans: 1. Miguel Cabrera; 2. Manny Machado; 3. Adrian Beltre.

Should start: Cabrera.
Automatic: Evan Longoria, Beltre, Machado.

Now we're going to run into some problems; there are too many great third basemen in the AL right now. Cabrera, Longoria and Machado rank 1-4-5 in FanGraphs WAR and 2-7-3 in Baseball-Reference WAR. Then there's Josh Donaldson, who ranks seventh on FanGraphs and fourth on B-R. Beltre hasn't quite matched those guys, but he's a top-20 player on both lists and is an established star on one of the best teams in the league. For now, Donaldson gets squeezed out.

Shortstop
Fans: 1. J.J. Hardy; 2. Elvis Andrus; 3. Jhonny Peralta.

Should start: Hardy.
Automatic: Peralta.

Not a good year for AL shorstops with Andrus not hitting, Asdrubal Cabrera not playing up to his usual standards and Derek Jeter injured. Hardy and Peralta are clearly the top guys -- flip them if you want -- with Hardy potentially on his way to winning another Gold Glove while leading AL shortstops with 13 home runs and 39 RBIs. Peralta is better than usually given credit for on defense and he's hitting .339, although that is fueled by an unsustainable .418 average on balls in play.

Outfield
Fans: 1. Adam Jones; 2. Mike Trout; 3. Torii Hunter; 4. Nick Markakis; 5. Jose Bautista; 6. Nelson Cruz.

Should start: Trout, Jones, ???.
Automatic: None.

Once you get past Trout and Jones it's difficult find an obvious third starter in an uninspiring group of AL outfielders. Hunter is hitting .300, but without much else to go with it. Heck, Jason Bay has matched him in WAR, so it's hard to argue Hunter's inclusion on the team at all. Hunter probably won't hang on to his top-three spot, but for now he's a starter. Backup candidates includes Brett Gardner and Coco Crisp, both in the top-five in WAR on both sites thanks to their all-around games and improved production at the plate; Bautista; Alex Gordon, a superb player and Gold Glove winner the past two years; Alex Rios, the one White Sox player who is hitting; Daniel Nava, who ranked fifth in the AL in on-base percentage and is tied for third among outfielders with 40 RBIs; and Mark Trumbo. I'd throw in Yoenis Cespedes in the mix as well, despite his inconsistent start.

I'm going to add as my reserves Gardner, Crisp and Gordon (in part because I know I'll need a Royals rep and he's the best candidate). Not exactly a trio that screams "All-Star Game," is it?

Designated hitter
Fans: 1. David Ortiz; 2. Lance Berkman; 3. Mark Reynolds.

Should start: Ortiz.
Automatic: None.

Now to the most ridiculous aspect of the All-Star Game: The AL is forced to include two designated hitters on its roster, even though most teams don't even employ a full-time DH anymore. Reynolds has ended up playing mostly in the field (only 13 games at DH) and while he has 13 home runs and 41 RBIs, he hasn't done much after a hot April. Kendrys Morales has hit pretty well for Seattle but the last thing we need is another Mariner on this All-Star team. Berkman is a nice sentimental choice but not quite All-Star worthy.

So let's go with Edwin Encarnacion, who has 17 home runs and 51 RBIs. Though he has mostly played first base, he is listed on the ballot as a DH. Plus, we need a Blue Jays rep.

Starting pitchers
Starter: Felix Hernandez.
Automatics: Clay Buchholz, Yu Darvish, Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Hisashi Iwakuma, Max Scherzer.

Yes, Buchholz is 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA, so why Felix as the starter? Let us list the reasons: Better strikeout rate, better walk rate, 13 more innings pitched, longer track record of dominance, succeeding even though Mike Morse and Raul Ibanez are playing regularly on "defense" in the outfield.

As for the other starters, Verlander's ERA is a little high at 3.71, but his peripherals are still excellent and he's still Justin Verlander. Iwakuma is 6-1 with a 1.81 ERA, has the lowest OBP allowed of any major league starter and has the best ERA among AL starters since he joined the Seattle rotation in July; in other words, he's legit. Scherzer is 8-0 with 100 Ks and just 20 walks in 83.1 innings; he should be making his first All-Star trip and deservedly so.

Relief pitchers
Automatics: Mariano Rivera.

OK, the rules say the players will vote in three relievers. I see Rivera as the only automatic; I'll add Joe Nathan and Grant Balfour, both with ERAs of less than 2.00 and just one blown save (by Nathan) between them. White Sox setup man Jesse Crain has been terrific with just two runs allowed in 29 innings, but I its hard to find room for a middle reliever with so many good starting pitchers these days.

* * * *

OK, we're at 29 players, so we have five spots to fill. We need a backup catcher plus reps from the Astros and Indians. For the Astros, I'm adding Castro over Jose Altuve; that squeezes out Santana, so I'll add starter Justin Masterson to represent the Indians. We're still two pitches short of our minimum allotment of 13 and the first guy to add is Anibal Sanchez, although he did miss his last start with a stiff shoulder. He's 6-5 but is fourth in the AL with a 2.65 ERA and has 98 strikeouts in 78 innings. Derek Holland has been terrific and so has James Shields despite his 2-6 record, and Bartolo Colon would be a fun choice. Matt Moore pitched himself out of a spot with his recent poor efforts, so I'll guy with an old standby: CC Sabathia.

That leaves one spot left. Josh Donaldson, I just found room for you.

So here's how the 34-man AL roster looks in early June -- or, at least, my AL roster (* starters, via fan balloting):

C Joe Mauer, Twins*
C Jason Castro, Astros
1B Chris Davis, Orioles*
1B Prince Fielder, Tigers
2B Robinson Cano, Yankees*
2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
3B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers*
3B Evan Longoria, Rays
3B Manny Machado, Orioles
3B Adrian Beltre, Rangers
3B Josh Donaldson, A's
SS J.J. Hardy, Orioles*
SS Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
OF Mike Trout, Angels*
OF Adam Jones, Orioles*
OF Torii Hunter, Tigers*
OF Brett Gardner, Yankees
OF Coco Crisp, A's
OF Alex Gordon, Royals
DH David Ortiz, Red Sox*
DH Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays

SP Felix Hernandez, Mariners*
SP Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
SP Yu Darvish, Rangers
SP Justin Verlander, Tigers
SP Max Scherzer, Tigers
SP Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
SP Chris Sale, White Sox
SP Anibal Sanchez, Tigers
SP Justin Masterson, Indians
SP CC Sabathia, Yankees
RP Mariano Rivera, Yankees
RP Joe Nathan, Rangers
RP Grant Balfour, A's

Now, there's no way five third basemen make it (although the AL did have five shortstops in 2002 with Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada and Omar Vizquel), so you'll probably see a seventh outfielder or a third catcher (especially since Castro won't finish in the top two in the player voting). If I had to guess, that will probably be Wieters or maybe Santana, who tore it up in April and the player vote usually seems predicated on who had the best April. So if Castro makes it as a third catcher, that bumps one of the third basemen.

And who knows what they'll do in the outfield; Crisp and Gardner aren't going to win the fan vote and are unlikely to finish high enough in the player vote, so the reserves outfielders could be, say, Bautista, Cespedes and Rios.

Haven't done one of these all week, so some quick thoughts on Thursday's games ...

• I was watching the Detroit Tigers-Pittsburgh Pirates last night but on my laptop I had on the Kansas City Royals-St. Louis Cardinals game to check out Michael Wacha's debut for St. Louis. If you're not familiar with Wacha, he was the 19th pick in last year's draft out of Texas A&M and I'm left asking: There were 18 guys better than him? (The pick, by the way, came via the Los Angeles Angels in the Albert Pujols signing.) After a terrific spring training he posted a 2.05 ERA in nine Triple-A starts and became the seventh rookie pitcher to appear for the Cardinals this year. He thoroughly dominated the Royals, pitching four no-hit innings and finishing with this line: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 SO. He failed to get the win when the Royals rallied for three runs in the ninth (after a long rain delay that had the Cardinals asking for an eight-inning victory).
  
  After pitching four days in a row, Cardinals closer Edward Mujica had a day off, as did rookie setup guy Trevor Rosenthal, leaving Mitchell Boggs to get burned yet again.As for Wacha, he threw 58 fastballs out of his 93 pitches, averaging 93.3 mph and touching 96-97. He throws up in the zone, especially to left-handers, and on this night did a good job of painting the outside corner against right-handers. He also gets some late movement, almost like a cutter, so while he didn't have a high K rate in the minors, he apparently induced a lot of weak contact, which was the case on Thursday. His out pitch is a changeup on which he recorded four of his six strikeouts. The pitch dives away from lefties and down and in to righties. He also has a curveball but only threw three against the Royals. OK, the Royals have been in a huge offensive slump so we should factor that in, but this kid looked terrific. Very poised and confident (it helps when you retire the first 13 hitters). I get a feeling he may not be heading back to the minors.
• You know, Freddy Garcia has had a hell of a career. He threw eight shutout innings for the Baltimore Orioles in a 2-0 win over the Washington Nationals and I love that Buck Showalter left him in to throw 113 pitches and save the bullpen. I'm skeptical Garcia can succeed all season -- he has just 15 strikeouts in 35.1 innings -- but he does throw strikes (six walks in starts) and won't beat himself. Garcia is now 158-103 in his career and not many pitchers win 158 games. He was the ace of two Seattle Mariners teams that reached the postseason and was a member of that stellar 2005 Chicago White Sox rotation that won a World Series. He battled back from injuries to turn into a junkballer supreme; who knows, maybe he learned a few lessons from Jamie Moyer back in the day. Good story and I hope he continues to pitch well.
• The Cleveland Indians are in the midst of a tough portion of their schedule and had dropped six of seven to the Tigers, the Boston Red Sox and the Cincinnati Reds before rallying to beat the Reds the past two nights in Cleveland. They scored all seven runs in the fourth inning to beat Cincy 7-1 on Thursday behind Scott Kazmir. Yan Gomes went 3-for-4 and is hitting .319/.333/.638 as he continues to push himself into the lineup. Don't be surprised to see Carlos Santana getting more days off from catching and more time at first base and DH. It doesn't get any easier for the Indians as their next five series are against the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Tigers, Texas Rangers and Nationals.
• The Colorado Rockies just lost two to the Houston Astros at home (and three of four in this four-game matchup), which has to hurt. Todd Helton is down to .219/.287/.344 and you wonder how much longer Walt Weiss can afford to keep him in the lineup.
• Carl Crawford did this but the Angels beat the Dodgers 3-2 behind the red-hot Jason Vargas. More bad news for the Dodgers: Matt Kemp hit the DL. Or maybe it's good news. He needs to get healthy.
• Travis Wood hit a grand slam for the Chicago Cubs. That's 19 RBIs for Cubs pitchers in May -- the most by a pitching staff since the 1940 Tigers had 20 in August. In fact, Cubs pitchers are tied for 19th in the majors in RBIs in May. Gotta love baseball.
• This was pretty cool.

The 2013 MLB draft is coming up, with the first round set for June 6, and when each team makes its first-round selection, each will be drafting an amateur player it believes will turn into an All-Star.

In reality, front offices know the odds of drafting an All-Star player are actually pretty slim. With research help from Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Information, here's the last time each American League team drafted a future All-Star -- although in a couple of cases that player made an All-Star team for a different franchise. We'll cover the National League on Wednesday.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters (2007)
Many considered Wieters the best player in the draft, but he fell to the fifth pick because of his agent, Scott Boras. The Rays ended up with David Price with the first pick, and the Royals, Cubs and Pirates saved a little money and ended up with Mike Moustakas, Josh Vitters and Daniel Moskos.

Boston Red Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz (2005)
The Red Sox got Ellsbury with the 23rd pick and Buchholz with the 42nd pick. The Red Sox actually had five first-round picks that year including supplemental picks -- the Ellsbury pick was acquired from the Angels for losing Orlando Cabrera -- and also drafted Craig Hansen, Jed Lowrie and Michael Bowden.

New York Yankees: David Robertson (2006)
The Yankees buy their All-Stars, cry the haters. Well, the haters are right! Robinson Cano came up through the farm system, but other than reliever Robertson, the only players to make an All-Star team in pinstripes since 1990 who were actually drafted by the Yankees were ... yep, Derek Jeter (first round, 1992), Andy Pettitte (22nd round, 1990) and Jorge Posada (24th round, 1990). Oh, plus Phil Hughes, who did make the All-Star team in 2010. But you remembered that.

Tampa Bay Rays: David Price (2007)
For all the praise given to the Rays' drafting acumen, they've had the No. 1 overall pick four times and have busted on three of those -- Josh Hamilton (who never played for Tampa Bay), Delmon Young (at least they traded him before everyone realized he stunk) and Tim Beckham, who followed Price in 2008 and has yet to reach the majors.

Toronto Blue Jays: Ricky Romero (2005)
Romero has suddenly lost the ability to throw strikes, which seems especially painful now because 2005 was one of the most loaded drafts in history -- Romero went sixth overall, one pick before Troy Tulowitzki.

Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale (2010)
Many teams didn't believe Sale would have the durability to make it as a starter, but not only did Sale ascend quickly to the majors but he developed into one of the best pitchers in the game. Six pitchers were selected ahead of Sale, and although one was Matt Harvey and another was Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon, the other four were Drew Pomeranz, Barret Loux, Karsten Whitson and Deck McGuire.

Cleveland Indians: CC Sabathia (1998)
It has been an amazing 15 years since the Indians have drafted an All-Star. Since Sabathia was last an Indians All-Star in 2007, Cleveland's All-Stars have included Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore (acquired from Montreal in the Bartolo Colon trade), Victor Martinez (a farm system product from Venezuela), Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez (signed out of the Dominican Republic) and, the past two years, Chris Perez and Asdrubal Cabrera, acquired from the Cardinals and Mariners.

Detroit Tigers: Alex Avila (2008)
A fifth-round pick out of Alabama, Avila was an All-Star just three years later. However, his 2012 and 2013 follow-up seasons haven't come close to his 2011 season, when he finished 12th in the MVP vote.

Kansas City Royals: Aaron Crow (2009)
Crow made the All-Star team as a rookie reliever in 2011 thanks to 34 good innings. By the way, the Royals haven't had two All-Stars since 2003, when Mike Sweeney and Mike MacDougal made it -- also the last time the Royals finished with a winning record. Is this a bad time for a Ken Harvey joke?

Minnesota Twins: Evan Meek (2002)
Joe Mauer was drafted first overall in 2001 and since then has been a draft spell as cold as a Minnesota winter. That's how you go from six division titles in nine years to back-to-back seasons of 99 and 96 losses. That's also the price you pay when you spend a decade never drafting higher than 14th. Meek was actually released by the Twins before making the All-Star team as the Pirates' rep in 2010.

Houston Astros: Ben Zobrist and Hunter Pence (2004)
Zobrist was a sixth-round pick from Dallas Baptist but the Astros traded him for Aubrey Huff before he reached the majors. What, you don't remember the Aubrey Huff Astros years, either?

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout (2009)
The last time the Angels signed a former All-Star to a megamillion free-agent contract: 2013.

Oakland Athletics: Andrew Bailey (2006)
The A's had only one All-Star last year -- reliever Ryan Cook -- but even then it was a gerrymandered roster that Billy Beane put together. Of the 11 players who compiled 2.0 WAR or better, the only one the A's drafted was A.J. Griffin.

Seattle Mariners: Adam Jones (2003)
Jones is a two-time All-Star with the Orioles, making J.J. Putz (1999) the last All-Star for the Mariners who made the All-Star team as a Mariner. And the last position player? Alex Rodriguez, 2000 All-Star, 1993 draftee.

Texas Rangers: Ian Kinsler (2003)
This might come as a surprise, given the Rangers' success in recent years and the praise given their farm system, but their All-Star reps have actually represented some great trades the team made (Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison) and some key free agents (Adrian Beltre, Yu Darvish, Joe Nathan).

This whole closer thing is a tough business. Perfection isn't just expected; it's demanded. Slip up once and it's a headline; slip up twice and fans are ready to trade you to Topeka. Slip up three times and your manager usually starts questioning your intestinal fortitude. As the late, great Dan Quisenberry once said, "A manager uses a relief pitcher like a six-shooter: He fires until it's empty then takes the gun and throws it at the villain."

The trouble with closers, and the decisions managers have to make when they start to struggle: When do you know if the chamber is empty?

Three playoff contenders suffered wrenching defeats this weekend when their closers blew multirun leads. Blown saves in one-run games are bad enough; blowing leads of two or three runs is generally unacceptable. The victims, or saboteurs if you prefer: Jim Johnson of the Baltimore Orioles, Chris Perez of the Cleveland Indians, and Fernando Rodney of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Here's what happened:

• The Orioles led the Blue Jays 5-2 on Sunday entering the bottom of the ninth, but Edwin Encarnacion doubled, Adam Lind grounded a single up the middle and J.P. Arencibia lined a base hit to right. A fly out, walk and fielder's choice made it 5-4 with runners at the corners and two outs. Light-hitting Munenori Kawasaki was at the plate. Johnson threw Kawasaki six consecutive fastballs -- six of his signature mid-90s sinker -- but the sixth one didn't sink much. The pitch hung out over the middle of the plate, and Kawasaki lined it into left center for a game-winning two-run double. The Orioles lost just one game last season they led heading into the ninth inning; they already have five such defeats in 2013. Johnson has lost three of those, and he has two other defeats, as well.
• The Indians also led 5-2 entering the bottom of the ninth, ready to salvage a split of a four-game series at Fenway Park. Dustin Pedroia walked to lead off, and, as you can probably guess, bad things happen when you walk the leadoff batter with a three-run lead. David Ortiz doubled. A groundout scored a run, Ortiz stole third and then another groundout made it 5-4. But now the bases were empty and Perez had two outs. He walked Jonny Gomes, who is hitting .200 without a homer against right-handed pitchers; Stephen Drew lined a base hit to right; and Perez walked light-hitting Jose Iglesias. Terry Francona had finally had enough and brought in Joe Smith to face Jacoby Ellsbury, who won it with a double to left center. It was the first game Cleveland lost entering the ninth inning and just the second loss for the bullpen, but Perez has been shaky of late. Last week, he blew a two-run lead in the ninth to Seattle only to get the win, and two days later, he gave up the go-ahead run in the ninth only to be rescued again as Cleveland won in extra innings. That's seven runs his past three outings.
• Rodney blew his fifth save on Saturday night, a 3-1 lead against the Yankees, who won in 11 innings. The Rays have now lost three games they led entering the ninth (and five they led entering the eighth). Last season, when Rodney allowed just nine runs all season and the entire pen was stellar, those figures were two and three.

So that's the play-by-play of disaster. That all three are struggling isn't necessarily a big surprise. Their Proven Closer labels were a little dubious entering the season, especially for Johnson and Rodney, who each had just one full season as a closer under the belt. In fact, it's time we take the magic out of the whole "closer mystique" nonsense that everybody likes to pretend exists. The fact that guys like Jason Grilli of the Pirates and Edward Mujica of the Cardinals are doing just fine is another indication that closers are often lucked into, not made.

There are few great ones -- Mariano Rivera, of course, and Craig Kimbrel (although even he has three blown saves) -- but the truth is that for most of these guys there's a slender margin between invincibility and Tom Niedenfuer. That's exactly what we're seeing with Johnson, Rodney and Perez this season.

Johnson is a pitch-to-contact closer whom sabermetric analysts predicted would be hard-pressed to match his big 2012 campaign when he saved 51 games. His strikeout rate is up, but that's because he's throwing more pitches up in the zone; a sinker up in the zone is a bad pitch. Last season, Johnson's ground ball rate was 62 percent; this season, it's 42 percent. Thus, he's getting hit more.

Perez was an All-Star the past two seasons, but his 3.45 ERA during that span is hardly elite material for a closer. He's always been a guy who lives on the edge, a decent reliever who got the ninth-inning role. His heat map shows a lot more pitches up in the zone this season, as well -- he's already allowed five doubles, four home runs and 10 walks in 16⅔ innings.

Rodney's implosion is probably the least surprising of the three. From 2007 to 2011, his ERA was more than 4.00 each season. Last season, he suddenly developed the perfect feel for his changeup to go along with fastball command, and batters hit .071 off it with 55 Ks and five walks. This season, the fastball command hasn't been there, and neither has the dominance on the changeup. He's already walked 18 batters (including 10 on changeups) after walking 15 all of last season. After giving up four extra-base hits in 2012, that total is already at nine. In other words, instead of getting Dennis Eckersley in his prime, the Rays are back to getting Fernando Rodney.

The managers of these clubs have some difficult decisions. Because all three have the Proven Closer label, how many chances do they get? And just shuffling them into the eighth-inning role and promoting the setup guy to closer doesn't necessarily solve anything; they can blow games just as easily in the eighth as in the ninth. Orioles manager Buck Showalter has the best options, as relievers Tommy Hunter, Darren O'Day and Brian Matusz have all pitched well.

"We should be getting on the plane with three wins here, but I can't hang my head too long," Johnson said after the game. "It's going to hurt for a little bit, and it should."

For now, it appears Johnson will keep his job despite four blown saves in his past five appearances. But no matter what happens the rest of the season, the ninth inning has already been a disaster for the Orioles. Last season, the average team lost 3.7 games it lead heading into the ninth. As mentioned, that's already five such defeats for the O's this season. And each one has hurt a little bit.

REST OF THE WEEKEND

Three stars

1. Anibal Sanchez, Tigers. Sanchez lost his no-hit bid on Friday when Joe Mauer singled with one out in the ninth. After Detroit acquired Sanchez from the Marlins last season, his strong performance in the playoffs led the Tigers to sign him to an $80 million contract that seemed a little ambitious considering his 3.65 career ERA and the fact that he'd never pitched 200 innings in a season. So far, however, Sanchez has been much better than a midrotation starter, as he's increased his strikeout rate from 20.4 percent a season ago to 30.6 percent now. While he's getting more strikeouts with all four of his pitches, the biggest increase has been with his fastball, which had a strikeout rate of 13.8 percent on plate appearances ending with the pitch in 2012 but 28 percent this season. The command of his fastball -- especially on the outside corner to righties -- has made his other pitches even more effective.

2. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals. For a guy who is "struggling," Strasburg has looked pretty good of late. He allowed just one run in eight innings against the Phillies on Sunday. In his past three starts, he's allowed four runs and just 13 hits in 23 innings. He's recorded 39 groundouts and 15 fly outs over those three starts. He's still seeking his first double-digit strikeout game of the season but still has 71 Ks in 72⅓ innings. While his ERA of 2.49 is a little misleading -- he's allowed nine unearned runs -- his recent outings should alleviate the minor concerns about his early performance.

3. Pete Kozma, Cardinals. How to beat Clayton Kershaw? The Cardinals shortstop went 4-for-4 on Sunday with three doubles; three of those hits came off Kershaw, including a three-run double and rally-starting two-base hit, as the Cardinals won 5-3.

Clutch performance of the weekend
Of our many walk-off heroes, how about Chris Young of the A's? The A's trailed the Astros 5-3 on Friday. Jose Veras walked John Jaso and Coco Crisp on 3-2 pitches, setting the stage for Young with two outs. Young did this on a 1-1 curveball. The A's are now five games over .500 -- thanks in large part to a 9-0 record against the Astros, who they've outscored 68 to 31. Hey, if they go 19-0 against the Astros, it's going to be hard to deny them another trip to the playoffs.

Best game
The Giants fell behind 4-0 to the Rockies on Saturday but chipped away and tied the game in the seventh. Manager Bruce Bochy got ejected in the eighth when Marco Scutaro was thrown out at third base, and the Giants escaped a two-on, nobody-out jam in the ninth. Troy Tulowitzki homered off a Sergio Romo slider in the 10th. But then, after the usually steady Rafael Betancourt walked Brandon Crawford, Angel Pagan lofted a deep fly to right center that kicked off the wall … and, well, Pagan ran 360 feet around the bases, helped a bit by a lazy relay throw from Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler.

Hitter on the rise: Matt Dominguez, Astros
When the Astros acquired Dominguez last season from the Marlins for Carlos Lee, everyone knew he had a major league caliber glove at third base. After going homerless in his first 33 games, doubts began increasing about his bat. Dominguez, however, has now popped seven homers in his past 13 games. His season line still needs some work, especially in the on-base department (.279), but he's starting to look like a positive in this dismal Astros season.

Pitcher on the rise: Jason Vargas, Angels
Don't look now, but the Angels have won eight in a row and are a respectable 23-27. Did they start too late, just like last season? Vargas is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in May, allowing nine runs in five starts. The Angels' next 10 games are against the Dodgers, Astros and Cubs. If they're a couple games over .500 at the end of those 10 games, they'll be back in the wild-card race.

Team on the rise: White Sox
Besides the Angels and Pirates (last week's team on the rise), the hottest club is the White Sox. We keep wanting to count out the South Siders, but, somehow, they find a way to hang in there. They don't score much, but they've won nine of 12 the old-fashioned way: with starting pitching. The starters have a 3.25 ERA over those 12 games, and that despite ace Chris Sale missing his last start with mild tendinitis in his shoulder. He's scheduled to start Tuesday against the Cubs.

Team on the fall: Mariners
They pulled out an extra-inning victory over the Rangers on Sunday, but that ended an eight-game losing streak. Starters not named Hernandez or Iwakuma have combined for a 6.78 ERA, which essentially means three-fifths of the Seattle rotation is below replacement level. The Jesus Montero catching experiment was finally, mercifully, brought to an end as he was demoted to Triple-A to see if he can rediscover the supposed hitting prowess that once made him a top-10 prospect (and play some first base). Dustin Ackley continues to be awful and Michael Saunders is three for his past 37. Things are so bad that Mariners fans are excited about Justin Smoak and his .698 OPS.

The first-place Cleveland Indians strode into Fenway Park on Thursday night to face the Boston Red Sox, which normally wouldn't be significant but the return of Tribe skipper Francona to the place he managed to two World Series titles in his eight-year stint made it so. The Fenway faithful gave Francona a nice welcome, then watched in vain as the Sox got blasted 12-3 in the first game of this four-game set. The rest of the weekend should be a bit more competitive, and watch lefties Scott Kazmir and Jon Lester meet up Saturday afternoon. Kazmir lifetime at Fenway: 6-5 with a 3.90 ERA, but a 1.56 WHIP. Here's what else to keep an eye on this final May weekend.

1. Lying in wait: The Tampa Bay Rays enter the weekend in fourth place in the tough AL East, but still on the positive side of the .500 mark. Manager Joe Maddon adjusted his rotation a bit to face the rival New York Yankees, as right-hander Alex Cobb was moved up to pitch Sunday. The Rays took two of three from the Yankees at home in April, with Matt Moore and Cobb winning. Moore, leading the bigs with an 8-0 record, faces CC Sabathia on Saturday in the signature matchup. As colleague Dave Schoenfield pointed out recently, the Rays remain the team to beat in the division, and I certainly concur, having predicted a World Series title. It can still happen.

2. It's our stadium! For years Philadelphia Phillies fans populated the stands in Washington when their team came to town, but Nationals management had enough. They wanted to take back their home stadium in what used to be a one-sided rivalry, and it certainly worked last season. This will be the first meeting of the season between these NL East teams, with surprisingly just one game separating them in the standings. Does it say more about the Phils or the Nats? Has to be the Nats, right? The Phillies avoid Stephen Strasburg, the Nats miss Cliff Lee, and we'll see if a frustrated Cole Hamels can avoid his eighth loss Sunday.

3. Meanwhile, out West: Two of the three teams tied atop the NL West with 26-21 records meet this weekend. Last weekend the confident, contending San Francisco Giants lost three of four at Coors Field to the confident, contending Colorado Rockies, and the defending champs get a quick shot at revenge. Who would have guessed the Rockies would have a better team ERA than the Giants? Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito are scheduled for action this weekend, and should fare better than Cain, Zito and Madison Bumgarner did in Denver. Ultimately the Rockies will have trouble keeping up as the summer goes on, but they can make yet another May statement.

4. Taking sides: The Milwaukee Brewers have owned the Pittsburgh Pirates in recent seasons, tallying a 36-12 head-to-head mark from 2010-12, and winning nine consecutive games in one stretch until the Pirates stopped it a few weeks ago. The NL Central rivals meet this weekend with one of them contenders, the other disappointing. The Pirates were contenders for half of last season as well before falling apart. Are they better equipped to make September relevant in 2013? Perhaps not, but they sure look to be in better condition than the Brewers, dead last in the NL in ERA. The Buccos are second-best.

5. L.A. story: And we finish with the franchise spending more money on its players than any other this season, the last-place Los Angeles Dodgers. And guess what! The manager is on the hot seat. Well, of course it's Don Mattingly's fault that Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley and Hanley Ramirez got hurt, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Dee Gordon can't hit and the team lacks proper depth at third base and in the rotation. Can Yasiel Puig save the day? Puh-leeze. The Dodgers and their embattled leader host the St. Louis Cardinals this weekend, with Sunday's Shelby Miller-Clayton Kershaw matchup potentially memorable, and hopefully Mattingly is still around next week.
Enjoy your weekend!

Some view this short, two-game series between the Indians and Tigers as an opportunity for the Indians to make a statement, now that they've passed the Tigers for first place in the AL Central. No matter that Cleveland took two of three just more than a week ago in Detroit; the Tigers are still the team to beat in the Central, so every series against them is a chance for a division rival to make a statement.

Well, a statement was made on Tuesday night, but it was Max Scherzer making it -- and doing it with an exclamation point. The Tigers right-hander pitched eight brilliant innings against the hottest team in baseball, giving up a run in the first inning but getting stronger as the game progressed, retiring the final 22 batters he faced. The Tigers won 5-1 -- Miguel Cabrera did more Miguel Cabrera type of stuff, hitting the go-ahead two-run homer in the sixth -- as Scherzer improved to 6-0 and lowered his ERA to 3.61.

Scherzer is one of my favorite pitchers to watch. He wears that 1930s-style hat, kind of all scrunched up like it's been tucked into his back pocket all day. He starts his delivery with his glove in front of his face and winds up with his hands going over his head, delivering the ball from a three-quarters arm slot. He gets all kinds of movement on his two-seam fastball, throws a wicked slider and can crank his four-seamer into the upper 90s, like he did in twice striking out Jason Giambi on 97 mph heaters.

His final pitch in the eighth, his 118th of the game, was a 98 mph fastball that Drew Stubbs swung through. It was his fastest pitch of the night. There's the exclamation point. It was one of those games in which you ask: Why doesn't Scherzer do this more often? Why isn't he the 1A to Justin Verlander's 1?

Maybe that's an unfair expectation to hold for a pitcher who is already very good -- he went 16-7 with a 3.74 ERA last year while ranking second to Verlander in the AL in strikeouts and first in strikeouts per nine innings. It was that kind of dominance, combined with a strong second half, that had me picking Scherzer as my sleeper Cy Young pick.

But Scherzer has also been one of those guys where the sum of the parts doesn't always quite add up. He entered Tuesday's start, for example, ranking fifth in the AL strikeouts, second in strikeout rate and in the top 10 in fewest hits and walks allowed per nine innings, and had allowed a reasonable five home runs in 54.1 innings. He controls the running game (opponents are 3-for-8 stealing against him). And while he was undefeated thanks to excellent run support, his ERA was a mediocre 3.98.

That's been a running theme of Scherzer's career -- his ERA never matches his peripherals:

2011: 4.43 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 3.70 xFIP
2012: 3.74 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.23 xFIP
2013: 3.98 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 2.55 xFIP

If you're not familiar with FIP or xFIP, those are advanced metrics that estimate what a pitcher's ERA would be given a normalized batting average on balls in play and home run-to-fly ball rates. Scherzer's BABIPs have been high -- .314 and .333 the past two seasons -- but is now down to .275 this season after Tuesday's two-hit effort. That suggests some bad luck, but it's not always so simple to say he's pitched in bad luck.

For example, while Scherzer has allowed five home runs this year, he's allowed 15 doubles and two triples. He's allowed a .201 opponents average -- 11th among starters -- but he's 32nd in slugging percentage allowed, so he does give up some extra-base hits. He has been a little prone to the big inning as well:

• April 6: Yankees get three in the sixth (two walks and a single, bullpen allows two guys to score).
• April 24: Royals get four in the third (five straight hits).
• May 15: Astros get four in the fourth (J.D. Martinez hits three-run homer).

Now, that could be a product of bad luck, random sequencing or Scherzer losing a bit of his stuff with runners on base. Checking some numbers:

2013: .238 wOBA with bases empty, .312 with runners on
2012: .317 wOBA with bases empty, .307 with runners on
2011: .362 wOBA with bases empty, .336 with runners on

So he hasn't pitched as well with runners on this year, but he doesn't have a track record suggesting there's a problem there.

Add it up, and I draw the conclusion that the big innings have more or less a random set of results this year, and his ERA will begin to slide closer to his peripheral numbers.

In other words, watch out American League, because I think we're going to see more performances from Scherzer like the one we saw Tuesday night in Cleveland.

One reader called it "epic." I don't know about that, but it was a two-and-a-half hour marathon chat session

This is one of those stretches that makes you happy to be a baseball fan. Or a baseball fan in Cleveland, at least. If you're a baseball fan in Seattle you may be starting to look ahead to football season.

The Indians just completed a four-game sweep of the Mariners, with three wins coming in walk-off fashion, two of those in extra innings, and the fourth win a 6-0 shutout over Felix Hernandez.

Monday's win featured a game-tying rally in the bottom of the ninth, and then after Justin Smoak homered in the 10th for Seattle, a walk-off, three-run homer from Yan Gomes, his second of the game. The tying run scored in the ninth when Mariners closer Tom Wilhelmsen dropped a throw at first base with two outs. In the 10th, the Indians were playing for a tie when Drew Stubbs sacrificed with nobody out, but Smoak's throwing error put two on with nobody out. Gomes followed with his blast to left off a 3-2 fastball from Charlie Furbush.

But it wasn't just Seattle's errors that created this latest bit of magic for Cleveland, now 18-4 since April 28 and 27-18 overall. The rally in the ninth included an infield single by Jason Kipnis on a 3-1 pitch that Robert Andino fielded and short-hopped Smoak, who should have made the scoop, and then a Nick Swisher blooper to right, just out of the reach of Andino. Home-plate ump Laz Diaz, who was terrible all game, had also missed a 2-1 pitch to Kipnis, which changed the structure of that at-bat. Michael Brantley began the 10th with another blooper to right just beyond Andino.

Hit 'em where they ain't.

So, good luck, good fortune and timely hitting. A pretty good combo.

Of course, the Indians have been here before. They were 33-20 on June 1 in 2011, five games up, and were still in first place as late as July 18. Last year's club was 26-18 in May and held first place on June 23 before collapsing to a 24-53 record in the second half.

But I think this is a better team, with a deeper lineup and, so far, better starting pitching. It's still early, but things are looking bright in Cleveland.

A quick warning about Jurickson Profar's call to the majors to replace the disabled Ian Kinsler: Do not expect Mike Trout; do not expect Bryce Harper; do not expect Manny Machado.

Yes, the performance of those three wunderkinds has, unfortunately, raised the expectations for all prospects, especially one deemed the best in the game entering this season.

In time, maybe Profar joins them as generational talents (I can see the corny nickname already: "The Four Tops"), but it would be unfair to believe Profar will hit like they have, at least right off the bat. Remember, he's only 20, and, while he held his own in Triple-A, hitting .278/.370/.438 with four home runs, HE'S ONLY 20 YEARS OLD. Most 20 year olds are still learning how to hit curveballs in the South Atlantic League.

That said, I'm excited to see the kid play for a couple weeks. While Profar didn't start Sunday and Ron Washington said he'll split time with Leury Garcia, I'm not sure the Rangers recalled Profar to play three games a week. Profar has a good approach at the plate, particularly for a kid so young, drawing 21 walks in 37 games at Round Rock, so that's a good sign that he'll come up to the majors and not get in trouble by being overly aggressive. And, as Washington likes to say, "He's not afraid of the game."

Kinsler had been one of the best players in the league so far, hitting .302 with seven home runs, 20 RBIs and 24 runs, so the Rangers will miss his production from the leadoff spot. But they have a comfortable lead in the AL West and there was no reason to push him through the injury.

Profar is likely headed back to Triple-A once Kinsler's DL stint ends. Of course, who knows, maybe Profar hits so well he leaves the Rangers no choice but to find a regular spot for him. I don't think that will happen, but I wouldn't be that eager to bet against him, either.

REST OF THE WEEKEND

Three stars

1. Matt Joyce, Tampa Bay Rays. Down 4-0 after one inning to the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, Joyce hit a two-run homer in the third to get the Rays closer and then hit a two-run, go-ahead double in the ninth. On Sunday, Joyce's homer provided the insurance run in a 3-1 win as the Rays swept the O's.

2. Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies. The Rockies had many heroes in winning three of four against the San Francisco Giants at home, but Fowler jumpstarted the offense all weekend with 10 hits and seven runs scored. Not a bad four days: He raised his average from .252 to .286.

3. Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians. Masterson tossed his second consecutive scoreless start, striking out a season-high 11 in seven innings against the Seattle Mariners on Sunday in a 6-0 victory. Masterson improved to 7-2 while lowering his ERA to 2.83. This is a different Masterson than we've seen the past couple seasons, with a much higher strikeout rate (25 percent versus 18 percent last season) but still keeping the home runs to a minimum (just three). While he's struggled in the past against left-handers, he's held them to a .226 average this season with a 36/19 K/BB ratio compared to 72/56 in 2012. And it's not all batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is a fairly normal .285 so far. If he keeps getting lefties out, he's going to keep winning games.

Honorable mention star of the weekend
Have to mention Joey Votto for getting on base all six times in Saturday's win for the Cincinnati Reds -- he went 4-for-4 with two walks, a double and a home run. Only two players had a "6-for-6" day last season -- Aaron Hill of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Neil Walker of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both went 5-for-5 with a walk and, like Votto, doubled and homered.

One more honorable mention star of the weekend
The Diamondbacks beat the Miami Marlins on Saturday as Brandon McCarthy pitched the three-hit shutout (no save!), but he had a lot of help from Gerardo Parra, who led off the game with this on the first pitch and then did this in the bottom of the first. Parra has one of the better arms in the majors, but his bat is a big reason the D-backs are in first place, as he's hitting .320/.385/.494 with 28 runs (11th in the NL). That batting line, combined with his outstanding defense, has Parra leading the NL in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), tied with Matt Harvey and Clayton Kershaw, at 3.1. Justin who?

Clutch performance of the weekend
Atlanta Braves rookie Evan Gattis keeps finding a way to get himself into the highlights. On Saturday, he pinch hit in the eighth inning against hard-throwing Kenley Jansen of the Los Angeles Dodgers with the Braves down 1-0 and a runner on and did this on a 2-2 fastball. The best part of the highlight is Freddie Freeman's "I don't believe that" reaction in the dugout.

The Dodgers bullpen, meanwhile, continues to implode. They followed Saturday's loss with another one on Sunday, giving up four runs in the eighth in a 5-2 loss. It has 13 losses, three more than any other team, and its 4.61 ERA is better only than the New York Mets and Houston Astros.

Unclutch performance of the weekend
Aroldis Chapman, step on down. Chapman entered with a 2-1 lead on Sunday and walked Delmon Young with one out. That was bad enough, but Cliff Lee pinch ran for Delmon (yes, a guy who plays the outfield regularly got run for by a pitcher) … and got picked off for the second out of the inning. Game over, right? Nope. Erik Kratz homered on a 3-2, 98 mph heater. And then Freddy Galvis -- Freddy Galvis! -- hit the dramatic walk-off home run off a 95 mph fastball.

Best game
OK, it's pretty difficult to top that one. There were some wild games this weekend -- Tampa beat Baltimore 12-10 on Friday, the Indians gave up two home runs in the ninth to Seattle on Saturday only to win in the bottom of the inning -- but Friday's Washington Nationals-San Diego Padres game was a tough one for San Diego. Adam LaRoche homered twice off rookie Burch Smith, but the Padres tied it with two runs in the bottom of the ninth off Rafael Soriano -- with the help of another Ryan Zimmerman throwing error. (A situation that's becoming a serious problem for the Nationals, as that's nine errors for Zimmerman with his fielding percentage a Mark Reynolds-like .897.) Anyway, Chad Tracy hit a pinch-hit homer off Huston Street in the 10th to give the Nats a 6-5 win. That's already six home runs allowed for Street, whose trade value is shrinking with each home run.

Hitter on the rise: Jason Kipnis, Indians
He had a three-run, walk-off home run in the 10th inning on Friday and two hits on Saturday and Sunday, giving him nine in his past four games, all Cleveland victories. The Indians are 17-4 since April 28 and Kipnis has hit .305 with seven home runs and 21 RBIs in the 20 games he's played. He won't start the All-Star Game with Robinson Cano in the American League, and the AL is loaded at second base with Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Kipnis at the All-Star Game.

Pitcher on the rise: Jeff Locke, Pirates
I'm not necessarily buying, but the lefty is now 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA after tossing seven scoreless innings on Sunday against the Astros in a 1-0 win. His K/BB ratio is a pedestrian 32/22, but opponents are hitting just .219 off him, thanks to a .230 BABIP. With that number likely to rise, Locke will need to record a few more whiffs to maintain success close to this level. Still, that's three scoreless outings this season and one did come against the Cardinals. Even though he's not this good, if he can give the Pirates 175 solid innings as a No. 4 starter, they'll take it.

Team on the rise: Pirates
The Pirates took two of three from the Astros to improve to 11-6 in May and 26-18 overall. They're second in the majors in ERA, and it's not necessarily a huge fluke as they're third in strikeouts. One thing to keep an eye on: Only the hapless Astros have needed more innings from their bullpen, so while the Pittsburgh crew has been outstanding, the workload is a possible concern down the road.

Team on the fall: Dodgers
The two bright spots this week were Zack Greinke's return and Matt Kemp's great catch on Saturday, but three losses in Atlanta reiterated that this isn't just a team ravaged by injuries: It's a bad team with a bad bullpen that finds ways to lose. Manager Don Mattingly said not to blame the bullpen. "You add on a run here or there, it takes a lot of pressure off a guy that you can't give up one hit that changes the whole game. I think we have to take this all as a group."

OK, then, we'll call it a team effort of a team on the fall.

Eric Karabell and myself discuss four teams off to surprising starts: The Yankees, Indians, Pirates and Rockies. Which ones are for real?

Four of the AL East teams will be facing off head-to-head this mid-May weekend, with the Tampa Bay Rays traveling to Baltimore and the mighty Vernon Wells-led New York Yankees hosting the last-place-but-hot Toronto Blue Jays. The other team is the Boston Red Sox, hoping to gain ground playing the Minnesota Twins after an exciting win against Tampa Bay on Thursday night. This is the lone division in which four of five teams are at .500 or better, so which team is on the hot seat? It's the team that isn't .500, Toronto. The Jays have won four in a row, making Yankee Stadium a very interesting place this weekend, especially when initialed Cy Young winners R.A. Dickey and CC Sabathia face off Sunday afternoon!

Here are some other things to keep an eye on:

1. Best of the rest: With Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish having opened the Detroit Tigers-Texas Rangers series Thursday night by allowing a combined 12 runs (eight by Verlander), the pitching should improve as the Tigers will throw Anibal Sanchez and Doug Fister out there, and they're thriving with a composite 2.54 ERA and two home runs allowed in more than 100 innings. The Rangers can't match that, but keep an eye on the Sunday night ESPN matchup when lefty Derek Holland faces Fister. The big two of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are hitless in eight at-bats against Holland, while Fister has been torched by David Murphy for four home runs in 18 at-bats.

2. Who's back? The Tigers might think the division is simply theirs to lose, but Terry Francona's Cleveland Indians continue to score many runs and get good enough pitching to have won 14 of 18 games. The Seattle Mariners come to the Lake and will first get to see if right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez is really back. I'm skeptical. OK, so that's not accurate: I don't believe it. Jimenez and his new, consistent mechanics have looked good the past three outings, having permitted three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. The strikeout rate looks nice, too. I still want to see more. Felix Hernandez is scheduled to start Sunday after leaving his Yankee Stadium outing this week prematurely with back spasms. If the M's lose him, well, forget it.

3. Hello, Coors! Likewise, the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies opened their four-game set Thursday night with aces on the hill and many runs scored, and the bloated ERA of the defending champions isn't likely to look any better after a thin-air weekend in Denver. With Ryan Vogelsong struggling and perhaps soon to be replaced, many eyes will be on inconsistent Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito, scheduled to start Saturday and Sunday. Each hurler has been all or nothing this season; in 16 combined starts split evenly, 10 of them have featured two or fewer runs. The other outings have been considerably worse. The Rockies sure do hit at home, so watch out.

4. Hey, hey, hey! The first-place Atlanta Braves could get right fielder Jason Heyward back from the DL as soon as Friday for their series opener with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and they expect him to hit considerably better than his current .121 batting average. Of course, their outfielder problems don't end there. The Braves have been using either catcher Evan Gattis in left field or a Jordan Schafer/Reed Johnson platoon, but Heyward is an obvious upgrade. As for the Brothers Upton, B.J. is hitting .145. That's not a misprint. MVP candidate Justin is hitting .156 over his past nine home games. The Braves could fall out of first place with a bad weekend.

5. Tony Be Good: Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani is scheduled to start in Philadelphia on Friday night, and no matter what the hotshot rookie does he could be headed back to the minor leagues. The team's ace right-hander Johnny Cueto is to come off the disabled list Monday, and manager Dusty Baker has already given the vote of confidence to right-hander Mike Leake, who held the powerful Miami Marlins offense scoreless this week. Sorry, Tony, your 2-0 record with a 2.89 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 28 innings is impressive, but hope you kept that apartment in Louisville. There's just no room in the rotation, so enjoy Friday night.

Have a great weekend!

Reaction to Wednesday's games ...

• Watched a lot of the Indians' 10-4 win against the Phillies on Wednesday afternoon as Cleveland knocked around Cole Hamels, who fell to 1-6 with a 4.61 ERA. Ignore the win-loss record since that's dependent upon run support. Has Hamels been as bad as that ERA? That ERA ranks 79th out of 110 qualifiers, which means Hamels isn't pitching like a $19 million pitcher. (Only five, or possibly six, years to go on his contract!) It's pretty easy to pinpoint his issue: Walk rate up 4 percent, which translates to 1.6 more walks per nine innings, strikeout rate down 1.5 per nine). Basically, he's taken one strikeout per game and turned into one walk; such is the fine line between one of the best pitchers in the game and a guy with a 4.61 ERA. A quick look at the numbers suggests his changeup has been fine (.077 average, no home runs), although he has walked seven batters on PAs ending with the pitch compared to just 10 all of 2012. Hitters have been pounding his fastball: Six of his nine home runs allowed have come off the pitch compared to 10 in 2012. Hamels is too good to keep struggling like this; pitchers of his quality don't usually lose their command overnight. Hamels will figure things out and since the Braves have come back to the pack, the Phillies are still just 3.5 games out of first.
• The Indians, meanwhile, continue to score runs, ranking tied for second in the AL at 4.9 runs per game. While everyone pointed to Cleveland's rotation as the big problem in 2012 (and it was), the offense was equally bad. Only Seattle scored fewer runs in the AL as the Indians ranked 13th out of 14 teams in slugging percentage. They did rank sixth in OBP so there was some ability here. They just needed power and Mark Reynolds has been the big key there with his 11 home runs. Jason Kipnis hit a three-run homer against Philly and after a slow start he's coming around, hitting .288 with six homers his past 16 games. It's a good offense, nothing flukey going on here. Now if the pitching ...
• Watched Shelby Miller in his first start since last week's one-hit, 13-strikeout shutout. He struggled with his command, especially in the first two innings when he threw 45 pitches. He tried to mix in his changeup more, throwing it 10 times after throwing it only 10 times total in his first seven starts. (Congratulations, Mets, you are now used for practice purposes!) Mets announcer Keith Hernandez pointed out that Miller was tipping the pitch by slowing his arm motion down a bit. Only two of the 10 pitches were strikes, so the changeup remains a big work in progress for the young righty. Still, despite battling his stuff all night Miller still pitched 5.2 scoreless innings.
• Obviously, a huge lift for the Dodgers as Zack Greinke returned from the DL and pitched 5.1 solid innings in a 3-1 victory over the Nationals. "Stuff was pretty good, just stamina needs to be a little bit stronger," Greinke said. "I was feeling pretty drained after the fifth." His fastball velocity wasn't great -- around 90 -- and I thought he got away with a few pitches, but he made pitches when he had to and didn't walk anybody. He replaced Josh Beckett, who hit the DL with a pulled groin, so the rotation is still a work in progress. Now if Matt Kemp can get his power stroke going ...
• Another win for the Pirates as lefty Wandy Rodriguez shut down the Brewers' right-handed attack. Rodriguez is a solid 4-2, 3.25, and has walked just nine batters in eight starts. I still have doubts about the Pirates' rotation, but if Rodriguez can keep pitching like this, he's a nice No. 2 behind A.J. Burnett.
• The Astros won in dramatic fashion as Miguel Cabrera flew out to the warning track with the bases loaded for the final out.

In April, Jose Bautista had turned into a three true outcomes type of player: home run, walk or strikeout. He hit seven home runs and had a slugging percentage over .500, but was hitting just .200.

Was he just finding his stroke as he returned from last year's injury problems? Or was he no longer the MVP-caliber hitter of 2010 and 2011, when he hit 54 and 43 home runs, drew walks, and hit .260 and then .302?

He hit his first two home runs of May on Sunday in a 12-4 pasting of the Red Sox to raise his overall batting to .246/.360/.544 -- respectable, if not quite 2011-level Bautista. And the Blue Jays need 2011-level Bautista if they have any hope of recovering from their awful start.

I'm not quite sure he's there yet. While Bautista can crush any fastball -- he's hitting .333 with six home runs in 51 at-bats ending with a fastball this season -- it was his production against "soft" stuff that allowed him to hit above .300 in 2011. Check out these two charts on his batting average against soft stuff in 2011, and then the past two seasons:



As you can see, that's a lot of red (hot) in 2011 and a lot of blue (cold) since. This year, he's 7-for-51 (.137) with three home runs against soft stuff. He split his home runs on Sunday -- one came off a first-pitch Ryan Dempster fastball, the other off an 0-1 83 mph slider from Clayton Mortensen. Bautista is a dead pull hitter -- only one home run to center and one to right-center over the past two seasons -- which can leave him vulnerable to breaking stuff on the outside part of the plate.

I haven't seen enough evidence that he's going to punish those pitches like he did a couple years ago, so I would guess he'll be prone to ups and downs throughout the season. He's still a huge threat at the plate, but not the MVP bat of 2011.

REST OF THE WEEKEND

Three stars
1. Shelby Miller, Cardinals. One hit. Twenty-seven down. In a 3-0 win over the Rockies on Friday, the St. Louis rookie became the fifth pitcher since 1961 to allow the first batter to reach base and then retire 27 in a row, joining John Lackey (2006 Angels), Jerry Reuss (1982 Dodgers), Jim Bibby (1981 Pirates) and Woodie Fryman (1966 Pirates). Miller had the Rockies guessing wrong -- or merely looking -- all night long, as he got 30 called strikes, the second-most by a starter this season. Eight of those closed out Miller's 13 strikeouts. Just a dominant performance. In fact, for all the attention given to Matt Harvey this year, compare the two young right-handers:

Miller: 5-2, 1.58 ERA, 45.2 IP, 29 H, 3 HR, 11 BB, 51 SO, .179 AVG
Harvey: 4-0, 1.44 ERA, 56.1 IP, 27 H, 3 HR, 14 BB, 62 SO, .142 AVG

2. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals. Not to be outdone, Wainwright took a no-hitter into the eighth inning on Saturday, finishing with a two-hit shutout in another 3-0 win for the Cards. Wainwright improved to 5-2 with a 2.30 ERA and had strong words about his rookie teammate: "You follow Roger Clemens a couple times like I have been, it makes you focus a little bit more," he said. "Once you see Shelby mow through a lineup like he has all year, you want to go out there and do it, too." Kudos also to Cards manager Mike Matheny for leaving in Miller to throw 113 pitches, and Wainwright to throw 120. In this day when managers are too willing to yank starters at 100 pitches, it is good to see a manager let his guys go the distance.

3. Chris Sale, White Sox, and Jon Lester, Red Sox. Two more one-hit shutouts, Lester on Friday, Sale on Sunday. Can't anyone here hit anymore? Lester got 12 ground-ball outs as he joined Pedro Martinez (2000), Hideo Nomo (2001), Curt Schilling (2007) and Josh Beckett (2011) as Red Sox pitchers to throw a one-hit, no-walk shutout in the live ball era. But Sale threw his wearing the so-ugly-they're-cool 1983 throwback uniforms.

Clutch performance of the weekend
Evan Longoria, for his two-out, two-run, bottom-of-the-ninth home run to give the Rays a dramatic 8-7 win over the Padres on Saturday. My favorite part: There's some sort of picnic area in left-center (yes, "picnic area" and "domed stadium" is kind of an oxymoron) where the ball landed, and it looks like half the fans out there didn't realize it was a game-winning home run.

First off, credit Ben Zobrist for a drawing the two-out walk on a 3-2 pitch from Huston Street, working back from a 1-2 count. Street knew that was the batter he had to get. "You get him 1-2, you've got to make a pitch," he said. "I'm frustrated about that just as much as leaving a pitch to Longoria in the middle of the plate." The Rays had led 6-2 before the Padres scored five in the seventh, leading Joe Maddon to say it would have been one of Tampa's worst three losses of the year. "But you can't go to the dance playing like that. When you get leads, you've got to put the other team away. I'm not happy with that. That's inappropriate. That's got to stop," he said.

The Rays finished the sweep on Sunday, however -- their fifth win in a row -- and clawed a game over .500.

Best game
Well, that Padres-Rays game was pretty good. Miller's game was mesmerizing. Toronto's win over Boston on Saturday featured Adam Lind's go-ahead home run in the ninth off Junichi Tazawa, after the Red Sox had tied it in the bottom of the eighth. But I'll go with Cleveland's 7-6 win over Justin Verlander and the Tigers on Saturday. Or Cleveland's 4-3 win on Sunday, in which the Indians tied it in the ninth and won it in the 10th, leading to this quote from Mark Reynolds, who delivered the go-ahead single: "With two strikes, I'm just trying to shorten up my swing and get something into play," he said. Wait ... since when does Reynolds shorten up his swing? Gotta love baseball.

The Indians took two of three from the Tigers to move into a first-place tie with Detroit.

Hitter on the rise: Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
He had six home runs through April 21, but his average fell to .173 after a three-strikeout game on April 25. In 16 games, he's hit .419/.478/.694, with three more home runs, eight doubles and nearly as many walks (six) as strikeouts (eight). He has six three-hit games in that stretch, and he's showing he's more than just an all-or-nothing slugger. He's showing he's a guy who is going to be the Cubs' cleanup hitter for a long time.

Pitcher on the rise: Zach McAllister, Indians
Don't believe in the Indians? Don't believe in the rotation? McAllister is starting to look like another solid option alongside Justin Masterson. He didn't get a decision in Sunday's game but pitched a solid six innings. He's 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA and a decent 33/13 SO/BB ratio in 43.2 innings. He's a fly ball pitcher but has allowed just five home runs in seven starts. If he keeps the ball on the right side of the fence he has a chance to be successful.

Brandon Phillips play of the week
This one was pretty.

Happy Mother's Day
Pablo Sandoval uses his pink bat to launch one into McCovey Cove. Tim Lincecum backed up Sandoval with his best outing of the year as the Giants took the final three of four from the Braves. Tough stretch coming up for the Giants, however: 20 of their next 30 on the road, including series in Toronto, Colorado, St. Louis, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Atlanta.

Team on the rise: Indians
They're 12-2 over the past 14, hitting .305 with 24 home runs -- and that stretch does not include that 19-6 win over Houston earlier in the season. The pitching staff has a 2.98 ERA with 13 home runs allowed. The Indians lead the majors in home runs and OPS, and guys like Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera and Lonnie Chisenhall have room to do better.

Team on the fall: A's
Awful week, losing four to Cleveland and then two of three to Seattle. They scored more than three runs just once in seven games as injuries to outfielders Coco Crisp, Chris Young and Josh Reddick have left them playing Michael Taylor and Brandon Moss in the outfield (with Daric Barton or Nate Freiman replacing Moss at first base). Jarrod Parker is still scuffling (6.86 ERA, four walks in 6.1 innings on Saturday). The A's just need to get healthy, and they didn't hit their stride last year until July (they were 37-42 and 13 games out on July 1), so they may be down now, but hardly out.