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Mark Simon and Jayson Stark joined forces for Friday's Baseball Today podcast .

1. The Indians continue to win. Is Jayson more shocked by Cleveland's good record or Detroit's early struggles?

2. Aroldis Chapman is on his way to one of the greatest seasons ever by a reliever, but Jayson and Mark discuss Chapman's future and whether insiders think he can start.

3. Dan Haren had 14 strikeouts for the Angels but Albert Pujols homered again. Which was the bigger story?

4. Jayson explains why he doesn't believe David Wright will stay with the Mets long-term.

5. Simon Says: Favorite stat of the season, quick predictions for rest of the season and some book recommendations.

Enjoy your holiday weekend everyone! The podcast will return on Tuesday with Eric Karabell and Keith Law.

• Paul Lukas has a piece up on Robert Griffin III becoming the first player to wear Roman numerals on his jersey. But in that piece he has some cool stuff on baseball players who wore nicknames on their jerseys. My favorite: One year, Johnnie LeMaster had been getting booed so much he wore "BOO" on the back of his jersey for a game.
• Johnette Howard has a nice piece on Rays outfielder Rich Thompson -- living the big league dream at age 33.
• Don't give up hope, Phillies fans! Bill Baer gives you some reasons for optimism.
• Catching up with Rusty Staub. The Mets have Staub bobblehead day this weekend.
• Here's an interview with new Red Sox director of player developoment Ben Crockett -- a former minor league pitcher who also happens to hold an economics degree from Harvard.
• Hey, I'm not the only one pumping up the Indians! ESPN Insider Ben Lindbergh writes why this season's Clevelanders will hold up better than the 2011 version. And FanGraphs' Dave Cameron says Cleveland is now the team to beat in the AL Central.
• Astros pitchers are getting the job done.
• Jim Tracy in a nutshell. Look, I expected the Rockies to be bad this year. But I don't think the Rockies expected to be bad. It may not be long before that leash snaps.
• ESPN Insider Kevin Goldstein explains how Scott Boras can exploit the draft this year.
• A Braves Q&A from Capitol Avenue Club.

My special co-host for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast was ESPN writer and former GM Jim Bowden, and let’s just say neither of us held back in what was an entertaining, honest and lively show.

1. The Red Sox are apparently cool with Adrian Gonzalez playing right field, but for how long? How easy will it be for the team to trade Kevin Youkilis? And should the Red Sox and Phillies be sellers?

2. Jim shares his thoughts on his players that will be traded before July 31, leading with a former Cy Young winner plying his trade for a team that can’t afford him.

3. Ah, here’s a topic we never get to: closers. Jim and I debate the human effect for fellows like Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall.

4. When Tampa’s Joe Maddon makes unconventional decisions, we praise him. Is that fair? What if a manager not known for his good moves would have led Carlos Pena off?

5. Finally, we look at Wednesday’s schedule, which includes Cole Hamels versus Bryce Harper. The Nationals are clearly getting the last laugh on their I-95 rivals.

So download and listen to a fun Baseball Today podcast, because it’s boring when everyone agrees. And on this show, that just wasn’t the case!

OK, I'll give you Justin Verlander.

I'll even give you Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson.

But five through 25? I think I'll take the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.

The Indians beat the Tigers 5-3 on Tuesday, even though Ubaldo Jimenez struggled once again with his control. Relief ace Chris Perez, who criticized Indians fans on Saturday for their lack of support (Cleveland is last in the majors in attendance), was greeted with a thunderous ovation as he came in out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. With two runners on, he struck out Cabrera and got Fielder to ground out.

Just another save. "That's the loudest I've ever been cheered here," Perez said. "I was pumped, the adrenaline was going. It could have gone the other way. I came through. I didn't know which way it was going to go. I was thankful it went the good way."

The good way pushed the Indians to 24-18. The Tigers are 20-22, and for the life of me I can't understand why everyone still thinks Detroit is the better team. Mind you, I'm not saying the Indians are better. I just don't see why the Tigers are better. Just because everyone picked them before the season?

Once you get past those big shiny names on the Tigers' roster, if you want to pinpoint one big difference between the two clubs, it's a little statistic that us sabermetric types love: the old base on balls. The Indians lead the American League with 188 walks, 25 more than any other team; the Tigers have 127 walks, ninth in the league. That patience will go a long ways toward giving Cleveland an offense capable of scoring as many runs as Detroit's (the Indians have outscored the Tigers by one run so far, 184 to 183).

In fact, when you go position by position, you'll see what I mean.

Catcher: Carlos Santana versus Alex Avila. So far, Avila has been unable to match 2011's .366 average on balls in play, the sixth-best average in the majors. Which means he's hitting like he did in 2010. Santana, meanwhile, is a walks machine who hit 27 home runs in 2011.

First base: Casey Kotchman versus Prince Fielder. Obvious edge to Fielder, of course. The most interesting thing about his start (.292/.354/.472) is his walk rate is down from 15.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Part of that is he was intentionally walked 32 times a year ago, just three this year.

Second base: Jason Kipnis versus Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn. Please. Big edge to Kipnis with Santiago and Raburn both hitting under .200. Will Detroit make a move here?

Third base: Jack Hannahan/Jose Lopez versus Miguel Cabrera. This may be the first and only time you'll see Jose Lopez mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera. So far, however, this edge has been minimal. Cabrera is hitting .304/.362/.488, Hannahan .287/.365/.436 but with better defense. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera has cost the Tigers four runs -- worst among third basemen (tied with Hanley Ramirez).

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera versus Jhonny Peralta. With the Indians preaching plate discipline, check out Cabrera: Last year, 44 walks and 119 strikeouts; this year, 18 walks and just 12 strikeouts. He's hitting .309 with an OBP over .400 but hasn't lost any power. In 2011, he swung at 31 percent of the pitches out of the strike but he has cut that down to 24 percent. Small differences can go a long way. Peralta was a big surprise for Detroit last season but hasn't matched the numbers in the plate or in the field.

Left field: Johnny Damon/Shelley Duncan versus Andy Dirks/Delmon Young. Damon has looked terrible. Dirks has looked great, but too early to evaluate this one.

Center field: Michael Brantley versus Austin Jackson. With his defense and hot start at the plate, Jackson has been as valuable as any player in the American League not named Josh Hamilton.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo versus Brennan Boesch. This one isn't close and that's with Choo off to a middling start in the power department. Choo has a .391 OBP, Boesch a .271 OBP. Choo is a solid defender while Boesch is slow and lumbering. With his poor start at the plate and poor defense, Boesch has been one of the worst regular in baseball so far. Choo is an underrated asset and I love Manny Acta's decision to move him into the leadoff spot.

Designated hitter: Travis Hafner versus field. Cleveland's designated hitters have six homers and .370 OBP (fourth in the league). Detroit's DHs have one home run and a .238 OBP (13th in the league). Big, big edge to Pronk.

Rotation. With the best pitcher on the planet, Detroit's rotation has posted a 3.87 ERA; without the best pitcher on the planet, Cleveland's rotation has posted a 3.94 ERA. Both teams have played 42 games and Cleveland's starters have thrown 12 more innings. Moving forward, maybe you think Detroit's group will perform better. After all, Doug Fister missed some, Max Scherzer just struck out 15 in game (never mind that the Pirates have been an historic strikeout binge of late) and Rick Porcello will put it together one of these years, because everyone says so. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez can't throw strikes, Justin Masterson hasn't pitched as well as last year and Derek Lowe is doing it with smoke, mirrors and a deal with the devil. The one thing the Cleveland starters do is keep the ball in the park; they've allowed 20 home runs, second-fewest in the league. Look, maybe you think Scherzer will start pitching better; I'd say so will Masterson. Maybe you're a Porcello believer; I'm not, especially with that infield defense behind him. Lowe is a fluke? Well, let's see how Drew Smyly does as the scouting reports get around on him.

Bullpen. Neither pen has been stellar, as Cleveland's 4.16 ERA ranks 13th in the AL and Detroit's 4.76 ranks 14th. Cleveland's top guys, however, have been pretty solid -- Chris Perez is 14 of 15 in save opportunities while Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone have pitched well. Detroit's top two of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit, so dominant a year ago, have both struggled to throw strikes.

I said before the season that I believed the Tigers were drastically overrated. On the Baseball Today podcast late in spring training, I predicted Cleveland would win the division. Unfortunately, when ESPN.com published predictions a few days later, I changed my pick to Detroit. I bought into the hype.

I'm not buying any longer. This division is wide, wide open. (And I haven't even mentioned the White Sox!)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

In response to Cleveland Indians closer Chris Perez complaining about the team's attendance -- the Indians rank last in the majors in per-game average -- I wrote a little bit about Cleveland's attendance in Clearing the Bases. Susan Petrone of "It's Pronounced Lajaway" had an analogy today, comparing Indians fans to an abused dog: It will take time for the Indians to earn the fans' trust.

That makes sense; one decent season and a good 40 games won't send fans flocking to the ballpark. Still, the attendance problems are a little odd; this isn't Tampa Bay, where the fans have never shown up, or Pittsburgh, where the Pirates haven't fielding a winning team since 1992. This goes beyond waiting for a team to win or a city's economic climate, although all that factors in a bit. It's perhaps worth noting that when the Indians had their great attendance run from 1995 through 2001 the team was not only good (six playoff seasons in seven years) but the Browns were also absent from 1996 to 1998. The Cavs, a strong team through much of the '90s, collapsed in 1999 and suffered through a string of terrible seasons. So the Indians built up a following right at the exact right time. The Oakland A's similarly attracted their largest gates when the Raiders were in Los Angeles.

In most cities, baseball attendance can be cyclical and bandwagon. A decade ago, the Mariners led the major in attendance; but after years of boring, lousy baseball, the Mariners now rank 28th. The Indians, however, aren't boring or lousy. They're in first place. I suspect the front office needs to do a better job marketing the team. And if the team keep winning, the fans will eventually start showing up again.

• A good piece on ESPNW about women who are running minor league teams.
• Rory Paap has an excellent take on Matt Cain, who is pitching better than ever.
• Jon Weisman wrote this before Chad Billingsley's start Sunday night, but it's all about Billingsley's reputation to have "meltdown" innings.
• One of the few bright spots for the Brewers has been catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who is hitting .342. J.P. Breen breaks down Lucroy's hot start and says he's been hitting the ball well to right field.
• Bill Baer breaks down one critical at-bat from a weekend, when Shane Victorino swung at the first pitch after a walk bases loaded. Is that dumb baseball?
• A big week for the Nationals, as they get the Phillies and Braves on the road.
• One Angels fan is starting to feel a little depressed over this team.

First base: Ninth-inning heat. Sean Marshall actually hadn't pitched that poorly for the Reds, not with 22 strikeouts and three walks in 14.2 innings. But he'd allowed 22 hits thanks to an unlucky .488 BABIP, so Dusty Baker made the move: Aroldis Chapman is in as the team's closer. He picked up his first save of 2012, closing out the Reds' 5-2 victory over the Yankees. I don't have any major issues with the move, but let's see how Baker handles Chapman. Will he extend him past one inning on occasion? (Four of his previous relief outings had been two innings.) The problem with making your best reliever your designated closer can be seen in Sunday's usage. Leading 3-2 in the eighth, Baker used Marshall and Logan Ondrusek. Leading 5-2 in the ninth, Baker used Chapman. The biggest out of the game was Marshall retiring Robinson Cano with a runner on and no outs in the eighth, while Chapman faced the bottom of the lineup. So while Chapman will get the saves, this move probably has little bearing on the Reds' W-L record.

Second base: Empty seats in Cleveland. The Indians are in first place but last in the majors in attendance, averaging 15,873 per game. Indians closer Chris Perez isn't happy about it. "It's just a slap in the face when you're in first place and last in attendance," he said. "Last. Not 25th or 26th. Last." Team president Mark Shapiro was left attempting to cover Perez's tracks, but I don't think what Perez said was unfair. He was being honest. Yes, the weather has been tough so far, but the Indians aren't a bad team and were decent in 2011. It is sad to see all the empty seats, however. From 1995 to 2001, the Indians ranked first, second or third in the AL in attendance as the team made the playoffs six times in seven years. But in 2003, when the team fell to 68-94, attendance quickly plummeted to 12th in the AL and hasn't recovered. Even in 2007, when Cleveland tied for the major league lead with 96 wins, the team ranked just ninth in AL attendance. Yes, the local economy may not be as strong at it was in the late '90s, although Cleveland has survived the downturn better than many cities. The fans left in 2003 and just haven't returned.

Third base: Interleague's opening weekend. The American League holds a slight edge through the first group of interleague series, going 24-18 thanks to sweeps by the White Sox and Mariners over the Cubs and Rockies. Interleague play returns on June 8. The AL's 131-121 advantage in 2011 was the closest the NL had been since 2004, when the AL held a 127-125 edge, but it was also the third straight year the NL had narrowed the gap.

Tweet of the day. Detroit's Max Scherzer struck out 15 Pirates, most in the majors this season. All 15 K's were swinging and he did it in only seven innings. (The Pirates, by the way, struck out 41 times in the three-game series against the Tigers.)

Max Scherzer became just the 2nd AL pitcher ever to K 15 batters while pitching no more than 7 IP. The other? Mike Mussinaon 9/24/2000.

— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) May 20, 2012

First: Derek Lowe spun his first shutout in nearly seven years? OK, that’s interesting, but hey, it was the Twins; they’re terrible. And he induced four DP grounders? That’s pretty cool, but part of what goes with the territory facing a balls in play-oriented lineup like the Twins’. But he did it without a single strikeout? OK, now that’s unusual. The last guy to throw a nine-inning complete-game shutout without a K was Scott Erickson a decade ago, on April 28, 2002 (thank you Baseball-Reference.com).

And to do it with so much help from his friends, in the form of those four Twin-killing twin-killings? Nobody’s done that since Ken Forsch got that sort of boost from the Angels’ infield back in May of 1981. Add in that Lowe did this at a time when strikeouts are at all-time highs, while generating just one swinging strike all day ... and words fail. His pulling off this sort of game is sort of like baseball’s answer to the coelacanth, because it’s like Christy Mathewson stepped out of a time machine and just mowed down a big-league lineup (even the Twins). It’s just one of those very, very improbable things you have to enjoy when you see it happen.

Of course, there’s going to be something automatic and yappy that will immediately tell us that he wasn’t that good, and that he hasn’t been that good, and that run estimators like FIP or xFIP will tell you he should be giving up an extra run and a half or almost two runs more than his current 2.47 ERA. Which is fine and worth keeping in mind, going forward about what might happen and should happen, but in the meantime the shutout’s a part of history, and Derek Lowe made it.

Second: Bryce Harper hit his second-ever home run in the major leagues, and it wasn’t front-page news. Considering it was the Nats’ lone run, that isn’t really shocking -- at this point, not only is he tasked with just proving he belongs day in and day out, the bigger problem is how the Nats will stop running through his teammates like Spinal Tap runs through drummers.

Third: You might reasonably feel sorry for Will Ohman for his part in Tuesday’s eight-run inning that erased a 6-0 White Sox lead, or his subsequent responsibility for the Tigers making that a four-run lead in the next frame. His lot in life’s not fun as is: With a 140-point career OPS difference between getting lefties out and righties aboard, he’s tasked with situational heroics, trying to get a lefty power monster like Prince Fielder out twice in a series.

That said, when he came into the fracas in the Cell, the game was still just 6-5 with the tying run on first and just one out ... and why was he even being used? To face and erase utility scrubeenie Don Kelly? That matchup wasn’t going to happen, not with Delmon Young on the Tigers’ bench.

So rookie skipper Robin Ventura walked into that, Jim Leyland pulls Kelly, Young gets hit by an Ohman offering, tying run scuttles to second, and the top of the order’s due up on a hot day in the Cell, when every pulled pitch off a righty’s bat has souvenir potential. Sure enough, Austin Jackson goes yard with an Earl Weaver special to put a three-spot on the board.

Next inning? Ohman finally gets to pitch to the left-handed people that he’s supposed to see, the lefty batters who won’t get pulled at the first sight of a southpaw: Fielder, Brennan Boesch, and Alex Avila. Except that Ohman’s no longer fresh, and he puts two of the three of them on base, and they both score, and the bloodbath's a slightly darker shade of red.

Suffice to say, if there’s a Will Ohman owner’s manual, you wouldn’t find games like this in it, not unless it’s followed by, “If you see this happening, call tech support.”

Home plate: From old friend Jay Jaffe of baseball Prospectus, a man who’s never been afraid of letting his Dodger fandom shine through:

You used to be cool, Chad Billingsley

— Jay Jaffe (@jay_jaffe) May 16, 2012

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Not every move involves rosters: Some just involve putting your better assets to work. Case in point: Today’s lineup card for the Cleveland Indians, which featured Shin-Soo Choo batting leadoff, something Manny Acta started trying just yesterday.

Choo was followed by second baseman Jason Kipnis in his usual slot, then Asdrubal Cabrera, then Carlos Santana. If that sounds to you like every good Indians batter, stacked up in a row, you’d be right. But with Choo’s .362 OBP (pre-game) up front, it gave manager Manny Acta some big-inning potential, and when Minnesota's Jason Marquis got into trouble in the fifth, there was no easier out for him to get, and they cranked a trio of home runs before Ron Gardenhire could get him off the mound.

Admittedly, your best four up front is pretty much the definition of a short-sequence offense. But stacking all the good stuff up front is usually a better way to get a crooked number or two on the board, and then you can try to be cute with the assorted sidekicks in the bottom of the order: Jack Hannahan and Michael Brantley, Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon. Considering that it was a rare day off for Travis Hafner against a right-hander, though, that front-loaded lineup can at least go five deep, Choo to Kipnis to Cabrera to Pronk to Santana. That isn’t a bad place to start.

And while that back end might not be a good group, it’s worth remembering that the Indians aren’t married to any of them. Hannahan and Kotchman are defensive specialists who at the best of times get on base. But behind them, the Tribe has options: Lonnie Chisenhall’s slugging .562 at Columbus and ready to roll, while Matt LaPorta’s hammered 10 home runs as his teammate.

It’s the outfield where things aren’t happy. Damon’s utility as a source of OBP or power is now several seasons out of date, while Brantley’s marking time until he goes from ex-prospect to outright suspect and career fourth outfielder. And the Tribe doesn’t have a ready or ready-ish alternative in the upper levels among their outfielders; rather, they have the latest iteration of a story they’ve been putting children to sleep with for years: “Grady Sizemore will be back soon.” When your former center field star is the stuff of milk-carton legend, you know that you probably shouldn’t count on him as an in-season solution.

Which is what will make the weeks and months to come interesting to follow as far as the Tribe’s lineup cards are concerned. Will Brantley or Damon earn his keep? Will Sizemore actually return, and play well enough to consign one of the other two to the bench? Will Chisenhall or LaPorta get the call?

Or will Mark Shapiro simply deal for a corner bat worthy of the name before the end of July? Because that’s the thing that you can really wonder about: If you’re not getting offense out of first base or left field, that’s usually one of the easiest things to fix around the deadline, and without having to give away a top prospect. If Choo gets to be the Indians’ once and future leadoff man, then in addition to riding the benefits of that front-loaded lineup, you can stop excusing Damon or Brantley as guys who help at the top of the order, and start looking at how little they’re delivering on offense. Fix that, and the team the Tribe’s winning with now could be better still a deal later in August.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

It is no secret that after Shin-Soo Choo's strong seasons in 2009 and 2010 (.300 average, .397 OBP, at least 20 home runs, 85 RBIs and 20 steals), he has since underperformed. Although critics are often quick to bring up his injuries and off-the-field incident as a means to explain his dismal season in 2011, his lack of performance has continued into 2012, as he's hitting .240/.371/.344 with just one home run entering Saturday.

So, what is the problem with Choo? The answer may surprise you. First, take a look at a chart courtesy of "It's Pronounced Lajaway" writer Ryan McCrystal that showcases Choo's batting averages according to pitch speed.

Choo's biggest problem has been sliders. During Choo’s impressive 2010 campaign he destroyed sliders, finishing with a .308 batting average against them with five home runs; however, since the end of 2010 Choo has managed a feeble .164 batting average against sliders. Choo has not hit a home run off of a slider since Oct. 1st, 2010.

If you are more of a visual learner, perhaps these two heat map interpretations can explain just how much Choo has regressed versus the dreaded slider. Check out the difference between the 2010 season and his at-bats since, and see if you can see the hole that has developed:



Pitchers have taken notice to this hole. Of the 10 games the Cleveland Indians have played against divisional opponents in 2012, nine featured Choo facing multiple sliders.

Although this is a big problem, it is not the only issue with Choo so far in 2012. You may have also noticed from the chart that Choo’s average versus pitches 85-plus mph has also declined in each of the past three seasons; however, the chart did not provide Choo’s splits versus right/left-handed pitchers. See below for the numbers.

Choo has managed to collect only two hits against left-handers this season on pitches of this type, the worst in the majors among players who have had at least 20 at-bats against 85-plus mph pitches. This may not seem like much of a problem considering it is more difficult for left-handed hitters to hit left-handers, but after seeing all of Choo’s success in past seasons versus left-handed fastballs it is alarming. It's a small sample size (Choo has 36 at-bats against left-handers all season), but worth watching to see if Choo continues to struggle in this regard.

A bright spot from this situation is the fact that despite Choo's significant struggles, the Indians find themselves at 18-14, leading the division by two games over the Detroit Tigers; however, no Cleveland fan should think that the team can have a successful season with a subpar Shin-Soo Choo.

Brenden Lowery writes for "It's Pronounced Lajaway", a blog that covers the Cleveland Indians. Follow Brenden on Twitter.

SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield and I argued so much on Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast that fisticuffs nearly ensued! OK, that last part isn’t true, but it was fun!

1. David Robertson blows up in the ninth inning Wednesday, which some say means he can only pitch in a setup role. We can’t begin to describe how ridiculous that is.

2. Meanwhile, Josh Beckett is out playing golf, eating chicken and drinking beer. Talk about a story that isn’t a story ... until Dave calls him the most overrated pitcher of the past decade. True or false?

3. Jake Peavy is pitching like a star and Tim Lincecum is not. Which right-hander would you choose for the rest of the season?

4. Our emailers have thoughts about ripping the surprising starts for the Baltimores and Clevelands of baseball, as well as schedule strength for the last-place Red Sox and Phillies.

5. On Thursday’s schedule we’ll get an exciting matchup in the Bronx as well as Nationals stud Stephen Strasburg on the hill, but there’s a certain AL Central pitcher that really needs to step up!

So download and listen to Thursday’s energetic Baseball Today podcast, and learn why you never leave a baseball game early. Ever.

Not sure if you saw this highlight from the Indians-White Sox game last night. How bad is Johnny Damon's arm? The White Sox sent the lumbering Adam Dunn home on a base hit to left field ... even though Dunn had yet to reach third base when Damon got to the ball.

OK, we all know Damon can't throw but when you one-hop the cutoff man from shallow left field ... ouch.

We’re almost a fifth of the way into the season, and many of the expected storylines in both leagues have gotten the usual attention. The East divisions get the attention because both provide full five-team tangles of contenders and pretenders, with heightened expectations raised higher still with the addition of two more wild-card entries this postseason. The NL Central has bad blood and historic rivalries. And the Wests have the L.A. teams riding their respective highs and lows. The Rangers have a pair of pennants. The NL West gives you a surprise team every season.

Who’s missing from all that? The AL Central, and perhaps it’s easy to see why. The division is home to baseball’s two worst teams, the Twins and the Royals, by any standard you might care to measure such things by: record or run differential. Only a simple Pythagorean interpretation of the Royals’ runs scored and allowed gets them out of their duet with the Twins at the very bottom of the majors, but even that might be generous, because however many runs the Royals sporadically get, it’s tough to outscore one of the only two rotations that can’t generate a quality start even a third of the time. And the other starting staff that is that bad? The Twins -- what, you needed to ask? -- even after Scott Diamond’s masterful shutdown of the Angels on Tuesday night.

But you can’t just blame this dud-ly duo at the bottom of the standings. The three teams competing for a playoff slot that’s theirs as a matter of geographical destiny aren’t blowing the league away in the early going. The Indians, White Sox and Tigers are a combined three games over .500, and have a combined run differential of zero. Taken collectively, they’re three teams around .500 that are supposed to be .500.

Now sure, that’s fun with math, because the Indians have slipped out to a modest early lead with their 17-12 start. However, that just echoes last year’s 30-15 season-starting run: Cause for celebrations on the banks of the Cuyahoga, and healthy skepticism everywhere else.

Can the Tribe be taken any more seriously this time around? Maybe if Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson get a handle on their early-season control problems, that would help, but their front five doesn't match up well with the best rotations.

On offense, they’re currently 10th in the American League in ISO or isolated slugging; it’s hard to identify where they’re going to get a major power boost as the season progresses. Johnny Damon hasn’t been a moderately useful power source for an outfield corner or DH since he left the Yankees after 2009. Grady Sizemore would be if and when his latest comeback gets under way. ‘Soon,’ ‘June’ and ‘when the cow jumps over the moon’ all seem like reasonable answers given his track record. Casey Kotchman isn’t hitting; he rarely does.

Which suggests that the Indians’ best fix on offense is currently outside the organization. First base is usually a good spot to find a free agent-to-be on a non-contender and trade for him as a two-month temp at the deadline, but next winter’s crop of free agents at first base is mostly appalling: Aubrey Huff? Carlos Lee? But how about Kevin Youkilis, as Gordon Edes has pointed out? Indians fans can certainly hope, but GM Chris Antonetti doesn’t have a ton to work with.

What of the White Sox? In all their early celebrations over Adam Dunn’s resurrection and A.J. Pierzynski popping a quick five homers, there’s still Gordon Beckham's and Brent Morel's slack bats. Homegrown Dayan Viciedo has fit right into that brand of ghastliness, struggling to post an OPS above .600. And with their whipsawing Chris Sale moving from the rotation to the pen, it’s clear they haven’t entirely figured what they can do with the working parts they do have.

So barring the Indians making some sort of game-changing deal, this really should still be the Tigers’ division to win. That might sound like a declaration of faith in the famous people, but propositions that start with names like Verlander, Miggy or Prince involve happier endings than those that rely on Pronk or Becks.

They aren’t perfect, of course, and a lot of that is because of the rest of Jim Leyland’s crew. I don’t blame you if you’re a Brennan Boesch skeptic -- has any other 27-year-old corner outfielder with a .424 career SLG ever inspired so much faith he’s going to be something more? -- or unconvinced that Delmon Young is ever going to really break out. But eventually Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder and Alex Avila will have more to work with than they have had in the early going.

At least in the rotation Doug Fister’s already back, and if Drew Smyly pans out, maybe he’s the third starter that Max Scherzer hasn’t been or Rick Porcello isn’t ready to be. But it says something that you have to already count on Fister as a sure thing as their No. 2, something nobody would have said about him on anybody’s team a year ago.

This early, though, project them over 162 games and the Tigers still look like the one team in the division with a legit shot at 90 wins. So I’d suggest Tigers fans keep the faith. They may feel letdown by initial expectations that they’d romp from day one, but a couple of long months beating up on the Twins and Royals will help. Barring an in-season overhaul for the Indians, it’s still Detroit’s division to win.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

First base: Here come the Marlins. The Marlins won their sixth straight game to improve to .500. All six wins came on the road, in San Francisco and San Diego, with four of the wins coming by one run and two in extra innings. The key battle in Sunday's 6-3 win over the Padres came in eighth inning with the game tied, the bases loaded, two outs and Giancarlo Stanton facing reliever Andrew Cashner. Stanton saw eight high-octane fastballs from Cashner -- seven at 101 mph, one at 102 mph. Stanton missed the first pitch, later fouled off two pitches and then drew a walk on a 3-2 pitch to give the Marlins the lead. With Cashner perhaps rattled by the bases-loaded walks, the Marlins proceeded to add three more runs on a John Buck passed ball, a Gaby Sanchez single and another passed ball.

"I saw 102 (mph) but you can throw 120 and without command you are going to get hurt," Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen said. "It's all about command and making good pitches. It was a hell of an at-bat." Stanton is also getting locked in. After going homerless for 19 games, he's hit five in his past eight games. Ricky Nolasco also pitched well again, improving to 4-0 with a 2.72 ERA. He's allowed 12 runs in his start, relying on control (nine walks) and keeping the ball in the park (one home run). The Marlins finish their road trip with three games in Houston. Could this be a 9-0 trip?

Second base: Let's settle this on the playground. You have to love Jamie Moyer and Chipper Jones getting into a little squabble over stealing signs. Kids will be kids, I guess. Moyer accused Jones of relaying signs while on second base. But what's odd is Chipper's response: "Any time a grown man gets his integrity questioned, they're going to take it seriously and I'm no different. If he wants to discuss it, we'll discuss it, but he's wrong, plain and simple," he said. But haven't we been led to believe that stealing signs is, you know, part of the game? A sort of legal way to cheat, as opposed to, oh, let's say performance enhancing drugs. Yet Chipper acts like his his very manhood was thrown in the gutter. Could it be that stealing signs is considered an immoral way to victory?

Third base: Mixed messages. Two pitchers in need of positive returns also delivered on Sunday, as Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez threw seven shutout innings against the Rangers while Mat Latos struck out 11 in six scoreless frames. However, let's not get too excited just yet. While Jimenez allowed just two hits, he also walked five against six strikeouts, a sign that his control issues remain an issue (25 walks, just 20 strikeouts on the season). Latos' game came against the Pirates; still, that's two scoreless outings in his past three starts. While I'd still be concerned about Jimenez, maybe Latos is finally showing the talent that made him so effective with the Padres.

Home plate. Tweet of the day. Bryce Harper stole home. On a pickoff throw to first base by Cole Hamels. After reaching when Hamels hit him with a pitch. Which Hamels admitted after the game he did on purpose. As Joe Sheehan tweeted ...

Bryce Harper is going to end up as one of those barometers, where you divide humanity into the people who like him and the ones who don't.

— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) May 7, 2012

Baseball is awesome. Did we need to say anything else? Do we need to hire Terry Cashman to write a ballad about this day? Do we need to pen epic poems about Chipper Jones and Jered Weaver and Bryce Harper and the intentional walk?

Man, I need to catch my breath.

How do you sum up the wildest game of the season so far? I guess pretty simply: The Phillies, a team that scores runs with about the same frequency of a Serie A soccer team, totaled 13 runs ... in a game Roy Halladay started ... and lost.

The Phillies led 6-0, the Braves scored six off Halladay in the fifth (including a Brian McCann grand slam) and then took an 8-6 lead (the first time he's allowed eight runs in a game since Aug. 24, 2009). The Phillies surged back ahead 12-8, the Braves took a 13-12 lead with five runs in the bottom of the eighth (as Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon apparently isn't allowed to pitch more than one inning or three days in a row), the Phillies tied in the ninth on Shane Victorino's two-out infield single, and then ...

Well, then, Larry Wayne Jones stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 11th inning. He hammered a 2-2 slider from Brian Sanches down the right-field line, but it hooked a few feet line. I tweeted, "Dang, a Chipper walk-off would have been pretty cool on this wild day."

Two pitches later, he crushed a 3-2, 88-mph meatball over the center-field fence, watching the ball fly away into the Atlanta evening and flipping his bat in a dismissive swagger. "I may be 40 years old with creaky knees, but don't try and slip that mediocre slop by me," he seemed to say.

Braves 15, Phillies 13.

It was the 458th regular-season home run in his career. Few have felt sweeter, especially since the Braves had lost eight straight games to the Phillies.

"I wish everyone could experience that feeling right there," Jones said on postgame on-field TV interview, trying to catch his breath after enduring the mosh pit at home plate. "That game, without a doubt, takes the cake as far as my career goes. You figure with Halladay and [Tommy] Hanson, it's going to be a 2-1 game."

When Jones says he's never seen a game like it, you know what it was something amazing.

And here are a few more adventures from not just another Wednesday in early May:

• Oh, yeah, as I was finishing this piece, Jered Weaver was flirting with a no-hitter through the sixth … seventh … into the eighth … and he did it. You know, Weaver is pretty good at baseball. The highlight: MLB Network cameras showed Weaver leaving the dugout in the eighth inning to use the bathroom. How do you risk a no-hitter by leaving the bench? As he said after the game, "I had to pee so bad."
• In an afternoon tilt at Coors Field, we saw the worst call of the season (Jerry Hairston Jr. was called out on this play) and Carlos Gonzalez homered twice off Clayton Kershaw (only the second time Kershaw has allowed two home runs to one player in a game, Adam Dunn having done so in 2010). But that stuff was merely a prelude to a wacky ninth inning. With two outs and a runner on first, Jim Tracy elected to intentionally walk Matt Kemp to pitch to Dee Gordon. You can debate the merits of the decision -- Kemp's home run rate was three times that of Gordon's extra-base hit rate, and extreme fly ball pitcher Rafael Betancourt was on the mound -- but Gordon hit a soft liner into right-center. Third-base coach Tim Wallach sent Kemp, who should have been thrown out by 10 feet, but Troy Tulowitzki biffed the relay with a wormburner throw home. Game tied and Tracy looked like the goat until the ancient Jason Giambi hit a three-run homer off Scott Elbert in the bottom of the ninth. How awesome is that the Giambino is still swatting game-winning home runs at age 41?
• The Nationals ended a five-game losing streak in dramatic, walk-off fashion as well. Wunderkind Harper -- who had just missed his first major league homer earlier in the game with a double off the top of the wall in right-center -- led off the bottom of the ninth with another double to center, his third hit of the game. With Nationals fans dreaming delirious dreams of Harper's future, J.J. Putz then struck out Wilson Ramos and Rick Ankiel. But Ian Desmond blasted a 1-1, 93-mph fastball over the fence in left-center. Only one of the best wins in Nationals' history.
• The Royals looked like they were going to beat Justin Verlander, leading 2-0 in the eighth, only to have Brennan Boesch tie the game with a two-run homer. So they settled for a victory off Joaquin Benoit in the ninth, the go-ahead run scoring on Chris Getz's two-out infield single.
• Jake Arrieta threw eight shutout innings against the Yankees in one of the best outings of the year for a pitcher: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB 9 SO. The Orioles took two of three in the series, they're 16-9, and Baltimore fans are starting to believe.
• Jeff Suppan made his first major league start since 2010 and tossed five shutout innings as the Padres blanked the Brewers 5-0.
• Johnny Damon played his first game for the Indians, and while he went 0-for-3 with a walk, having Damon back in the bigs is certainly worthy of a round of applause.
• Carlos Beltran had seven RBIs through three innings and for a time we could conjure up scenarios where he would drive in 10 ... 11 ... maybe even a record-tying 12 runs.
• Lost in the excitement of Chipper's dramatic walk-off homer, Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz also had seven RBIs.

One day in baseball. I say we do it again.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Please think these things through: The Twins might be bad on offense, but Ron Gardenhire’s being a worrywart over having Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit in the same lineup is a way to make a bad lineup worse. The issue is that Mauer and Doumit are his two backstops, and there’s that old-school concern that if your starting catcher has to come out you want to have a guy on the bench to back him up. If Doumit is the DH, that swap might hurt the Twins’ offense because they’d lose the designated hitter.

But you'll hurt your offense when you play Clete Thomas over Doumit because he might have to come in and catch a couple of innings if Mauer needs to come out.

That might seem silly to bring up when Thomas is the hero of the hour in the Twin Cities. The recently discovered bit of waiver bait did just hit a home run, after all. But nice first impression aside, don’t forget that this is the same Thomas who was projected to deliver a .660 OPS or so via Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS before the year. Maybe that looks good in Minnesota, but it’s no reasonable solution, even for this lineup.

Speaking of which: Thomas just got Pittaro’d, a legacy that Tigers fans might remember well from the days of the immortal Sparky Anderson back in the ’80s:

• Sparky on Chris Pittaro: "He's going to be a great ballplayer, and that's etched in cement." Pittaro wound up with 102 PAs in the major leagues, hitting .249/.299/.323.
• Leyland on Thomas in February 2011: "Clete, he’s one of our favorites, really. He’s a four-tools guy, he’s got a lot of tools." Favorite or not, Thomas spent 2011 in Toledo, and I’m sure the Tigers will be glad to get the occasional postcard from Minnesota.

Putting the word 'rotate' in your rotation: Speaking of Sparky, Leyland and the Tigers, remember those "Tigers romp" predictions of 10-12 days ago? Well, take another page out of history, because right now the Kitties’ rotation looks a lot like those mid-’80s Motor City squads. That was a rotation that had Jack Morris, a good sidekick or two (Dan Petry and Frank Tanana), and … a cast of dozens that could not hold the lead for a heavy-hitting lineup.

Fast forward and you’ve got Justin Verlander flanked by frustrating/promising Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, and ... well, we’ll see won’t we? It depends on how long Doug Fister is out, but the Tigers are being sensible and cautious with the strike-throwing beanpole.

The camp battle for the fifth starter was supposed to be an amusing sidelight to the Tigers’ season-long stomp to first place. Adam Wilk and Drew Smyly are getting first crack at replacing Fister. In reality they’re still essentially battling over who gets to stay once Fister is ready to return. Andrew Oliver's shot at re-entering the race probably hasn’t been helped by his nine walks in 9 2/3 innings pitched for the Mudhens.

Rotate times two: You might also pity the Padres, if you please. Dustin Moseley's shoulder looks bad, so he may not get to reap the benefit from pitching in Petco, while Tim Stauffer recovers from an injured triceps. In their spots, Bud Black gets to use righties Anthony Bass (15 minor-league starts above A-ball) and Joe Wieland (14).

That might seem like the Padres are pushing things, but they don’t want to call up top prospect Casey Kelly and add him to the 40-man roster any sooner than they have to -- not when they can push off his arbitration eligibility for another year. Bass is an interesting enough utility pitcher who could figure out a changeup and stick as a starter, while Wieland’s upside is that he eventually turns into a nice strike-throwing fourth-starter type -- a lot like Moseley.

Pleading the fifths, and at third: As the schedule starts to hit its regular rhythm, fifth starters Jerome Williams (Angels), Ryan Vogelsong (Giants), Drew Pomeranz (Rockies), Charlie Morton (Pirates) and Ted Lilly (Dodgers) all showed up and pitched over the weekend. So if you were hoping for anything really unconventional, guess again.

One of the things lost from that bit of scheduled shuffling? The Rockies’ commitment to multi-corner substitute Jordan Pacheco didn’t last. In broad strokes, Pacheco might seem like a perfect bench weapon. He switch-hits, plays catcher, third and first, and he has a career .803 OPS in the minors. But three starts in eight games, and see ya -- the Rockies’ hot corner belongs to Chris Nelson. The 2011 season was the first year in the last four that Nelson didn’t lose significant time to injury. Given that Nelson is also projected to deliver just a .714 OPS (again, thanks to Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS), he isn’t a great option for Colorado at third base even if he stays healthy. I suspect Dan O’Dowd’s not going to let this ride any longer than he has to.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.