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So we ended up with the quite the finish here. Lots of bad baseball down the stretch. Lots. Remember: The top 10 picks are protected if you sign a free agent who is given a qualifying offer. Plus, the worse you finish in the overall standings the more money you get to spend in the draft. Yay, incentivized losing!

1. Astros: 51-111
Just in case they were worried about the Marlins catching them, they lost their final 15 games to ensure the No. 1 pick for the third draft in a row.

2. Marlins: 62-100
Kudos to Henderson Alvarez for his final-day no-hitter. In fact, the Marlins swept the Tigers in that season-ending series and won five of their final six, allowing just seven runs over those six games.

3. White Sox: 63-99
Tried hard to catch the Marlins, going 7-21 in September and losing five of their final six. Went 2-17 against the Indians, although no truth to the rumor that the Indians will share their playoff shares with the White Sox.

4. Cubs: 66-96
Ended up tied with the Twins, but get the higher pick based on 2012 record. And boy did they fight hard to get that fourth pick. Lost six of their final seven and 12 of their final 15.

5. Twins: 66-96
Lost 10 of final 11. Too bad they beat the Tigers in extra innings on Sept. 23 or they would be drafting one slot higher. In Sunday's finale, ensured defeat with three errors. In the sixth inning. Nice job, Twins!

6. Mariners: 71-91
Went 6-14 over their final 20 games to slide from a bubble team securely into a top-10 position. Lost their final eight extra-inning games, proving there's an art to successful tanking. Namely: A bad bullpen helps.

7. Phillies: 73-89
It looked like they would jump out of the bottom 10 but then lost nine of their final 11. No wonder Ryne Sandberg got the job for next year! The final game was huge, as the Phillies came up big with a 12-5 loss to the Braves.

Now, this is where things get really interesting. We had a four-way tie for spots 8 through 11. The tiebreaker is 2012 record. So ...

8. Rockies: 74-88
Those two one-run wins over the Dodgers on Saturday and Sunday didn't help, but the tiebreaker gives them the edge. Not that they'll be pursuing Robinson Cano or anything.

9. Blue Jays: 74-88
How nervous was GM Alex Anthopoulos watching the Jays nearly rally from a 7-0 deficit on Sunday? They did beat the Rays twice on the final weekend but still lost 12 of their final 19.

10. Mets: 74-88
The Mets had the most to lose if they finished out of the top 10, since they presumably could be pursuing some of the big free agents this winter. Luckily the offense came through with three straight 4-2 losses to the Brewers (before winning the season finale 3-2).

11. Brewers: 74-88
Well, this is what a 15-12 record in September will do to you. No Kyle Lohse for the Brewers this offseason!

12. Padres: 76-86
Yes, Padres fans, there were 11 teams worse than yours.

13. Giants: 76-86
The Giants went 10-5 over their final 15 to at least avoid becoming just the second World Series winner (after the 1997 Marlins) to finish in last place the next season. So there's that.

14. Angels: 78-84
A 21-7 stretch in August/September ruined any chance the Angels had of finishing with a top-10 pick. So if they went to throw $250 million at Cano, it will cost them their first-round pick.

I did my American League All-Star team yesterday. Here's my National League squad. A few more tougher calls in the NL.

Catcher: Yadier Molina, Cardinals (.319/.359/.477, 12 HR, 80 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Two questions: Is Molina a legitimate MVP candidate and how will he fare in the voting? Sure, he's a strong candidate, although I have Andrew McCutchen as my clear No. 1 guy. Due to his relatively low runs plus RBIs total (he has 68 runs scored), Molina would certainly be an unconventional MVP candidate. Wins Above Replacement accounts for some of Molina's defense -- such as throwing out runners -- but can't measure some of the intangibles, such as the confidence he gave to the young St. Louis starters. Molina's offense numbers are similar to last year, when he finished fourth in voting, so I wouldn't be surprised if he jumps up to second this season.

First base: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks (.302/.401/.553, 36 HR, 124 RBI, 7.1 WAR)
Goldschmidt or Joey Votto? It's not quite as simple as Goldschmidt's 51-RBI advantage as both put up similar numbers otherwise, with Votto having the edge in on-base percentage (.436) and Goldschmidt in power (36 home runs to 24). Both were extremely durable -- Goldschmidt has missed two games, Votto zero -- and solid defenders. The one big difference is an advanced metric called Win Probability Added, a category Goldschmidt led all NL position players in, thanks in part to his .350 average in high-leverage situations and nine home runs in late and close situations (second-most in the majors to Chris Davis). I'm confident Goldschmidt is the right choice here.

Second base: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals (.320/.394/.484, 11 HR, 78 RBI, 6.7 WAR)
An easy choice as Carpenter leads the NL in runs, hits and doubles while ranking in the top 10 in numerous other categories. I'm guessing Molina garners more MVP support, but Carpenter is just as worthy to finish in the top five.

Third base: David Wright, Mets (.308/.393/.516, 18 HR, 57 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Pedro Alvarez leads the NL with 36 home runs and has knocked in 100 but a .233 average and sub-.300 OBP means he created a ton of outs to generate those runs. Ryan Zimmerman waited too long to start hitting. Chris Johnson hit .321 for the Braves. None were above-average defenders. So almost by default I'll go with Wright, who easily has the highest WAR even though he missed 50 games.

Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons, Braves (.244/.292/.390, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 6.5 WAR)
I've been raving about Simmons all season so I can't change now. Troy Tulowitzki was great once again and relatively healthy (125 games), although he hit 61 points higher at home. Hanley Ramirez was the best on a per at-bat basis but played just 86 games. Ian Desmond flew under the radar year for the Nationals. But Simmons is my guy, even with that sub-.300 OBP. His defense was that good.

Left field: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies (.302/.367/.591, 26 HR, 70 RBI, 5.1 WAR)
Starling Marte had an excellent all-around season (41 steals, great defense) for the Pirates and Matt Holliday was solid for the Cardinals. Gonzalez's season was similar to Wright's -- if he'd remained healthy, he'd be the obvious choice, but he missed 50 games. Unlike Tulo, he actually hit better on the road, so it's not a Coors-inflated season. I'll go with CarGo just barely over Marte.

Center field: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (.317/.404/.508, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 8.2 WAR)
Carlos Gomez would be an MVP candidate if he had better teammates. Shin-Soo Choo gave the Reds exactly what they needed, a leadoff hitter who got on base. But this was McCutchen's season as he often carried a mediocre Pittburgh offense and hit .339/.441/.561 in the second half, helping keep the Pirates in the division title race. He's the likely MVP winner and not a "weak" MVP, as some have speculated. His WAR is higher than the past three NL MVPs, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and Votto. He may not drive in 100 runs or score 100 (he's at 97), but it was the best all-around season in the league.

Right field: Jayson Werth, Nationals (.318/.398/.532, 25 HR, 82 RBI, 4.8 WAR)
A loaded position, and that's with Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton missing significant time. Jay Bruce, Yasiel Puig, Hunter Pence and Marlon Byrd all have their supporters (and Gerardo Parra leads in WAR). The knock against Werth, like Wright and Gonzalez, is that he missed significant time (129 games). But Bruce has a .329 OBP. Puig didn't get called up until June and Pence's monster September (11 HR, 29 RBI) came after the Giants had long been eliminated and arguably against dubious September pitching.

Starting pitchers: Clayton Kersaw, Dodgers (16-9, 1.83 ERA, 8.0 WAR); Cliff Lee, Phillies (14-8, 2.87 ERA, 7.2 WAR); Jose Fernandez, Marlins (12-6, 2.19 ERA, 6.3 WAR); Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (19-9, 2.94 ERA, 6.2 WAR); Matt Harvey, Mets (9-5, 2.27 ERA, 5.4 WAR)
Oh, Cliff Lee is still good. There were no shortage of top starters in the NL as 18 qualified starters have posted an ERA of 3.25 or under, the most since 17 did it in 1992 and 10 more than last year.

Left-handed setup guy: Luis Avilan, Braves (5-0, 1.55 ERA)
Part of Atlanta's dominant bullpen, Avilan fanned just 38 in 64 innings but allowed a .173 average and just one home run. He gets great movement on his two-seam sinking fastball, resulting in fewer K's but a lot of groundballs. Honorable mention to Pittsburgh's Justin Wilson.

Right-handed setup guy: Mark Melancon, Pirates (3-2, 1.39 ERA)
He had a couple rough outings in September, but was dominant throughout the season, first setting up Jason Grilli and then earning 16 saves when Grilli was injured.

Closer: Craig Kimbrel, Braves (4-3, 50 saves, 1.23 ERA)
He did blow four save chances and wasn't quite as statistically dominant as last season -- and still finished with 1.23 ERA and 50 saves.

Earlier, I presented the 10 best decisions of 2013. Here are my 10 worst decisions -- moves that were clearly questionable when made. And, no, all 10 do not involve the Phillies.

10. Angels give $125 million to Josh Hamilton. It's easy to forget that Hamilton hit 43 home runs and finished fifth in the MVP voting with the Rangers last season. But that was fueled by a huge first half. A big increase in strikeouts compared to 2011 and an increasingly poor approach at the plate were warning signals that he could be a risky investment. Hamilton salvaged his season a little in the second half, but he's still a guy with a .304 OBP and the Angels will be on the hook for $30 million a season in 2016 and 2017 -- his age 35 and 36 seasons.

9. Rockies give rotation spot to Jeff Francis. Francis had a 5.00 ERA with the Rockies in 2010. He had a 4.82 ERA with the Royals in 2011. He had a 5.58 ERA with the Rockies in 2012. The Rockies thought it was a good idea to give him 11 starts. Look, if three guys get hurt and you have to use Francis to fill in, OK. But 11 starts? He went 2-5 with a 6.61 ERA.

8. Yankees have no backup plan for Derek Jeter. Knowing Jeter's return from last October's broken ankle didn't have an exact timetable, and knowing his defense was an issue even when he was healthy, the Yankees needed an alternative plan -- and, no, Jayson Nix and Eduardo Nunez weren't good ideas. I advocated early in the season that the Yankees go after defensive whiz Brendan Ryan, a move the team finally made in September. Nix, a .214 career hitter entering the season, didn't hit much and Nunez, a terrible fielder, rated at minus-28 Defensive Runs Saved, the worst total of any player in the majors.

7. Brewers pretend Yuniesky Betancourt is still a major league player. Giving Betancourt 396 plate appearances is kind of like giving up. Betancourt hit .280 with six home runs and 21 RBIs in April. Fake! He was still Yuniesky Betancourt and has hit .189/.215/.287 from May 8 on -- that's 284 PAs. Once it became obvious that April was a fluke, why keep him around all season?

6. Royals count on Jeff Francoeur for more than clubhouse leadership. The Royals believed so much in Francoeur that they traded super prospect Wil Myers to keep Francoeur in right field. Even though Francoeur hit .235/.287/.378 in 2012 and was worth minus-2.3 WAR. As in, way below replacement level. Francoeur played 59 games, struck out 49 times, drew eight walks, hit .208 and was mercifully released on July 5. There also was the Chris Getz problem at second. Or Ned Yost batting Alcides Escobar second for nearly 300 at-bats despite a .274 OBP. Or that Carlos Pena pinch-hit appearance ... if you get the idea that Yost had a bad year, well ...

5. Royals give Wade Davis 24 starts. Part of the controversial Myers-James Shields trade, Davis had pitched very well for Tampa Bay out of the bullpen in 2012, but the Royals decided to return Davis to the rotation, where he had mediocre results in 2010 and 2011 (4.27 ERA). Giving Davis a chance to start wasn't the worst idea, although he wasn't that great as a starter in Tampa considering the Rays' great defense and a pitcher's park. He was better in relief because his fastball ticked up in shorter outings. The big problem here was Yost kept running Davis out there despite a 5.67 ERA and .320 batting average allowed. The Royals have allowed the fewest runs in the AL, but what if Bruce Chen had joined the rotation before mid-July?

4. Mariners think it's a good idea to play Michael Morse and Raul Ibanez in the outfield. Together. OK, we'll be a little fair to GM Jack Zduriencik, who did reportedly acquire Justin Upton, only to see Upton veto the trade. He also pursued Hamilton. So Morse was kind of a Plan C or Plan D, the hope being his bat would make up for his lousy defense. Nope. Morse's defense was predictably awful, plus he didn't hit. When Franklin Gutierrez spent the year raising sheep in Australia instead of playing center field, that forced the Mariners to use Ibanez regularly in left field, giving them two of the worst (the worst?) corner defenders in the majors.

3. Giants stand pat with Barry Zito. OK, he beat Justin Verlander in Game 1 of the World Series, which pretty much justified that $126 million contract all by itself. While it was understandable to open the season with Zito in the rotation -- he was at least serviceable last season before his clutch postseason performances -- you couldn't assume Zito would roll 30 starts again. Zito went 5-11 with a 5.75 ERA as the Giants gave him 25 starts. But that ERA comes courtesy of help from pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. Zito went a stunning 0-9 on the road with a 9.56 ERA and .401 average allowed. Basically, on the road, the average hitter against Zito was Ted Williams.

2. Angels sign Joe Blanton. Considering Blanton had a 4.79 ERA in the National League over the three previous seasons, the odds that he would perform better moving over to the American League seemed slim. There may have been some belief that Blanton's fly-ball tendencies would work in Anaheim. Wishful thinking. He went 2-14 with a 6.04 ERA. Meanwhile, the Angels let Ervin Santana go, and he had a great year for the Royals.

1. The Phillies go Young. Let's see. Delmon Young and Michael Young were worth a combined minus-2.8 WAR in 2012, with the Defensive Runs Saved statistic suggesting both were lousy defenders. Ruben Amaro flouted advanced metrics and acquired both players. They combined for minus-2.3 WAR while with the Phillies. On a perhaps related note, the Phillies have allowed the second-most runs in the NL.

Todd Helton had a pretty nice major league career for a backup quarterback. The one-time Tennessee QB announced he'll retire at the end of the season, after a 17-year career that has seen him hit .317 with 367 home runs, 2,505 hits and 1,397 RBIs.

While Rockies fans get to say goodbye, the question for the rest of us: Is he a Hall of Famer?

That's really a two-part question, of course: (1) Does he deserve to make the Hall of Fame. (2) What are his chances?

The initial reaction of many may be to compare him to Don Mattingly, another first baseman who had a high peak value but suffered back issues that hurt his effectiveness. As you can see from the list below of recent first basemen, however, Mattingly isn't really in the same ballpark as Helton. The list includes each player's career WAR and then their best five consecutive seasons.

Jeff Bagwell 79.5 (five-year peak: 34.4)
Jim Thome 72.8 (26.9)
Rafael Palmeiro 71.8 (26.3)
Mark McGwire 62.0 (29.8)
Todd Helton 61.1 (37.4)
John Olerud 58.0 (27.0)
Will Clark 56.4 (27.7)
Fred McGriff 52.6 (26.7)
Jason Giambi 51.2 (34.7)
Carlos Delgado 44.3 (26.1)
Don Mattingly 42.2 (28.8)

Helton is way ahead of Mattingly in both career value and peak value -- Helton, in fact, has the best five-year peak on the board. That period ran from 2000 to 2004, when he hit .349/.450/.643 while averaging 37 home runs and 123 RBIs. While Helton hit .300 five times after that, he was never the same in the power department, reaching 20 home runs just once and never again reaching 100 RBIs.

As superficial as that 100-RBI barrier is, it could work against Helton since first base is viewed as an RBI position -- a reason great all-around players like Olerud and Keith Hernandez fared poorly in Hall of Fame voting -- and he topped that 100 mark just five times. Like those two, however, Helton earned value with his glove (since 1950, he ranks seventh on Baseball-Reference's list with 73 runs saved at first base). As good as Helton was at the plate, his offensive WAR actually rates below that of Giambi, McGriff and Clark, and just ahead of Delgado.

Some of that is the Coors Field factor in measuring his value. He's hit .345/.442/.607 at home (225 home runs) versus .287/.386/.470 on the road (142 home runs). That's another knock against Helton, in the same way it's hurt former Rockies teammate Larry Walker, who has hovered at just over 20 percent of the vote in his three years on the ballot. In fact, compare their career numbers:

Helton: .317/.415/.539, 133 OPS+, 367 HR, 1,397 RBI, 2,505 H, 1,394 R, 37 SB
Walker: .313/.400/.565, 141 OPS+, 383 HR, 1,311 RBI, 2,160 H, 1,355 R, 230 SB

Walker won an MVP and didn't get to spend his entire career in Denver. I don't see a whole lot separating those two, except Walker was a Gold Glove right fielder and Helton a Gold Glove first baseman. I'd have to rate Walker the better Hall of Fame candidate (his career WAR is also much higher, at 72.6), but the fact that he hasn't fared well in voting probably doesn't bode well for Helton.

If Helton hadn't suffered the back problems, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Three more peak years and he'd be a slam dunk. But like Mattingly, that's not what happened. There's also the issue that none of those first basemen above separated themselves from the pack, except Bagwell, who received 60 percent of the Hall of Fame vote last year, putting him on path to get to the needed 75 percent. Palmeiro and McGwire obviously have no shot right now given their PED history, but voters haven't given much support for McGriff (493 home runs, 1,550 RBIs), either.

For me, Helton falls just under the line. Take away Coors Field, and I wonder if he's John Olerud. That's not meant as a criticism, just that nobody thinks of Olerud as a Hall of Famer. I think Helton's initial time on the ballot will mirror Walker's -- about 20 percent of the vote.

Here's the funny thing about "tanking": Sometimes even replacement-level pitchers can do a good job. For instance, the New York Mets sent Daisuke Matsuzaka and his 5.75 ERA to the mound on Sunday against the Cleveland Indians. That's not his 2013 ERA; that was his ERA since 2009. In three starts with the Mets in 2013 he was 0-3 with a 10.75 ERA. This looked like a sure thing for the Indians and our pick as tank of the day. So of course the Mets win 2-1 with a run in the ninth, Dice-K pitching into the sixth before leaving after getting struck by a ball.

Sunday's winner: Tough call, but let's give it to the Seattle Mariners for some questionable bullpen usage in the eighth inning. Leading 1-0 against the Rays, right-hander Yoervis Medina came on with Evan Longoria leading off, followed by four lefties. I get using Medina against Longoria as he's sort of established himself as Seattle's eighth-inning guy. Joe Maddon had stacked his lineup with left-handed batters, but had already used Delmon Young and Wil Myers off the bench in the seventh. With Luke Scott, James Loney, Matt Joyce and Kelly Johnson due up, didn't it make sense to bring in Oliver Perez at that point? Sean Rodriguez, Desmond Jennings and Yunel Escobar were on the bench, but I'd rather have Perez facing those guys than Medina against the lefties. Anyway, Scott walked (Jennings pinch-ran), Loney doubled in a run and Perez was finally brought in, and Rodriguez singled in two runs as the Rays avoided the sweep.

(Honorable mention to the Giants for resting both Brandon Belt and Pablo Sandoval, although they beat the Diamondbacks anyway.)

Current standings in the race to 10:

Team             W   L   Pct.    GB

1. Astros       47  96   .329   ---

2. Marlins      53  88   .376     7

3. White Sox    57  85   .401  10.5 

4. Cubs         60  82   .423  13.5

5. Twins        61  80   .433    15

6. Brewers      62  80   .437  15.5

7. Giants       64  79   .448    17 

8. Mets         64  77   .454    18

8. Mariners     65  78   .455    18

10. Padres      65  77   .458  18.5

10. Rockies     66  78   .458  18.5

12. Phillies    66  77   .462    19

13. Blue Jays   67  76   .469    20

14. Angels      67  75   .472  20.5

The Padres, Phillies and Blue Jays all hurt their chances to finish in the top-10 worst records by sweeping their series. The Twins jumped into the top five with their sweep at the hands of Toronto and the Rockies are suddenly right there with their sweep defeat in San Diego. Good job, Roy Oswalt! Key series starting Monday: Rockies at Giants.

The New York Mets' rotation right now includes Daisuke Matsuzaka, who owns the worst ERA since 2009 of any pitcher with at least 300 innings. They just signed Aaron Harang, released by the Mariners after posting a 9.12 ERA in August.

Why would a team playing out the string give starts to two washed-up veterans?

It's pretty simple: The Mets have come down with injuries to their rotation and they want to limit Zack Wheeler's innings, so they'll use a six-man rotation in September to space out his starts. Unwilling to use some of the younger pitchers already on the 40-man roster -- who would have their own innings limits -- the Mets dug up whoever they could to fill their holes.

But it's not quite so simple; there's more to it than just protecting Wheeler. The Mets want to lose. Or, at least, I think they want to lose, because there is incentive to lose ... or lose often enough to finish with one of the 10 worst records in baseball.

Remember last winter when the Mets wanted to sign free agent Michael Bourn? And Bourn apparently wanted to play with the Mets? Bourn ended up signing with Cleveland because the Mets held the 11th pick in the first round -- and only the first 10 picks are protected if you sign a free agent who has been given a qualifying offer by his previous team. The Mets decided that signing Bourn and losing the pick wasn't worth it; the Indians, drafting fifth, signed Bourn and Nick Swisher, two free agents tied to qualifying offers.

Basically, by tying draft picks to free agency, MLB is encouraging tanking. No team wants to finish with the 11th- or 12th-worst record and lose that first-round pick if they sign an elite free agent -- which this offseason could include the likes of Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Matt Garza, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Ervin Santana. You don't think the Mets would be interested in a couple of those outfielders?

True, free agency has always been tied to draft picks, but two things happened in the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement. First, it used to be that the top 15 picks were protected when signing the old "Type A" free agent; there is a big difference, however, between the 10th-worst team, which is a team that usually finishes well under .500, and a middle-of-the-pack team, which is usually one on the fringes of the playoff race. This year, for example, the No. 15 team is Washington, currently a game over .500. The second major change was that each team is given a draft budget, based on money allocated for each pick. Finish worse and you get more money to spend on the draft.

That means September baseball will include Matsuzaka and Harang pitching their hearts out to help the Mets. You see, the Mets currently own the 10th-worst record in the majors. They are right on the border of no-man's land, "leading" the Phillies and Blue Jays by just one game. In fact, the race for the 10th spot is going to be nearly as heated as the race for the playoffs. Here are the standings in the race for No. 10 -- starting with the Astros and including how many games behind each team is from the team below them:

Team            W   L  Pct.    GB

1. Astros      45  92  .328   ---

2. Marlins     51  85  .375   6.5

3. White Sox   56  80  .412     5

4. Cubs        58  79  .423   1.5

5. Brewers     59  78  .431     1

6. Twins       60  76  .441   1.5

7. Padres      61  76  .445   0.5

7. Giants      61  76  .445   0.5

9. Mariners    62  75  .453     1

10. Mets       62  74  .456   0.5

11. Blue Jays  63  75  .457     1

11. Phillies   63  75  .457     1 

13. Rockies    65  74  .468   1.5

14. Angels     64  72  .471   0.5

The Twins, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Blue Jays and Phillies -- sixth-worst to 12th-worst -- are separated by just two games. In the 2013 draft, the Marlins drafted sixth and had a draft budget of $9.5 million. The Mariners drafted 12th and had a budget of $6.1 million. It's going to be a mad, mad scramble to lose just the right amount of games. Not that front offices right on the border will ever admit that.

The final standings are particularly crucial to clubs like the Mets, Phillies, Giants and Mariners, who would be willing to spend the money to dip into the free-agent market to plug holes. Like the Mets, the Mariners are desperate for outfielders. Ellsbury, an Oregon native, would be a perfect fit for their center-field hole; Choo would look great in a corner outfield slot. But the risk of losing that pick if you finish No. 11 has to be weighed.

Look, there's risk in tanking. The Astros tore everything apart a couple of years ago in beginning a complete overhaul of the organization, but how many fans will they lose with years of bad baseball and how many years will it take to win them back? But that's an extreme example. We're really talking only a few wins here -- 74 wins instead of 77. That's not going to have an effect on your fan base or season-ticket sales. (There's an argument that finishing over .500 provides more hope and could lead to more ticket sales over the winter, but right now none of these teams are pushing .500.)

So if you're a Mets fan or Phillies fan or Mariners fan, you have some standings to pay attention to in September. Enjoy the tanking.

When Alex Rodriguez got caught off second base on Ichiro Suzuki's line drive back to the pitcher in the 10th inning, I was sure the Tampa Bay Rays would win.

When Joba Chamberlain walked Jose Molina leading off the bottom of the 10th, I was sure the Rays would win.

It just seemed like one of those classic Tampa Bay games -- Joe Maddon pulls the right moves -- like not pinch hitting for Molina -- and the Rays scratch out the victory.

But the New York Yankees also know how to scratch, and Boone Logan got a double play, Alfonso Soriano doubled and stole third (stole third!) and scored on a sac fly and Mariano Rivera went 1-2-3 and the Yankees managed to avoid a sweep.

Soriano gave one of the great quotes of the year about his surprise, one-out steal, which he swiped even while stumbling: "Being the DH, my leg is not loose 100 percent. My mind is 100 percent but legs are not."

A lot of legs aren't 100 percent this time of year, making the final stretch run so exciting: Which teams and players will wobble to the finish line, and which will sprint across it? Here are some predictions for the final five weeks:

1. The Yankees finish two wins short of the wild card. They've made it interesting, which is a remarkable feat, but I'm still having trouble seeing them passing three teams to win a wild-card spot. On the other hand, if they stay in it, their final four series are against the Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Rays and Houston Astros, and three of those teams will be playing out the string. Can you imagine the uproar if the Yankees make it … and then Rodriguez plays in the postseason and leads the Yankees to the World Series title and Bud Selig has to hand him the World Series MVP trophy?

2. The Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers will finish with their respective league's best record. It's a great battle for best overall record in both leagues, and I'll go with the Braves and Tigers to lock up home-field advantage, but what's the value in that? Let's check the past 10 seasons:

2012: Yankees (lost ALCS); Washington Nationals (lost NLDS)
2011: Yankees (lost ALDS); Philadelphia Phillies (lost NLDS)
2010: Rays (lost ALDS); Phillies (lost NLCS)
2009: Yankees (won World Series); Los Angeles Dodgers (lost NLCS)
2008: Los Angeles Angels (lost ALDS); Chicago Cubs (lost NLDS)
2007: Boston Red Sox (won World Series)/Cleveland Indians (lost ALCS); Arizona Diamondbacks (lost NLCS)
2006: Yankees (lost ALDS); New York Mets (lost NLCS)
2005: Chicago White Sox (won World Series); Cardinals (lost NLCS)
2004: Yankees (lost ALCS); St. Louis Cardinals (lost World Series)
2003: Yankees (lost World Series); Braves (lost NLDS)

So, five of 20 reached the World Series, and two won. Basically, home-field advantage doesn't mean anything. Going all-out to avoid the wild-card game makes sense, of course, but the playoffs are too much of a crapshoot to worry much about home-field advantage.

3. One team currently out of the playoffs will make it. My pick: the Indians.

OK, I actually have no idea. It could be the Baltimore Orioles or the Yankees. But we have about 32 games remaining, and checking the similar point in the schedule reveals we should see at least one team currently out of the playoff picture climb its way in. The NL seems pretty locked in with the Diamondbacks now seven games behind the Cincinnati Reds for the second wild card, although recent history (see list below) suggests even that isn't an impossible number.

So it's more likely to be an AL team, and nobody seems to be talking about the Indians, who are just 1½ behind the Oakland A's for the second wild card. They do have a tough road trip this week to Atlanta and Detroit and then a home series against Baltimore, but if they survive those nine games, their final seven series are against the Mets, Kansas City Royals, White Sox, Royals, Astros, White Sox and Minnesota Twins.

Question is: Do they catch the A's? Or do the A's catch the Texas Rangers for the AL West title and the Indians then catch the Rangers for the wild card?

2012 -- AL, one of five (Tigers came back from three behind White Sox); NL, none
2011 -- AL, one of four (Rays 8½ games from behind Red Sox); NL, one of four (Cardinals 9½ games from behind Braves)
2010 -- AL, none; NL, one of four (Giants from six behind the San Diego Padres)
2009 -- AL, one of four (Twins came from 4½ games behind Tigers); NL, none (Colorado Rockies were tied with the Giants)
2008 -- AL, none; NL, two of four (Phillies were a half-game behind the Mets, Dodgers from three games behind the Diamondbacks)

4. Max Scherzer will finish 23-1. I know -- and I know you know -- that win-loss records for starting pitchers are overrated and dependent, to a certain extent, on run support. Still, 23-1 would be pretty freakin' awesome, no matter how much you dislike pitcher wins. Scherzer is currently 19-1, which breaks the all-time single-season winning percentage currently held by Roy Face, who went 18-1 as a relief pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1959. The best winning percentage for a pitcher who won at least 20 games is Ron Guidry's .893 mark (25-3 record) with the Yankees in 1978.

Scherzer, of course, has received great run support, but he's also been amazingly consistent, never allowing more than five runs and allowing four or five runs just five times in 26 starts. That doesn't mean there hasn't been some good fortune; he's 3-1 in those five starts and is one of just three starters with three wins in such games (Erasmo Ramirez is 3-0 and Tommy Milone is 3-5). Patrick Corbin and Mat Latos, both 2-1, are the only others with at least two decisions who don't have a losing record.

Scherzer should get six more starts. Assuming the Tigers stick to a five-man rotation, giving Scherzer four or five days between starts, his remaining starts should line up like this … with predictions:

Thursday, Aug. 29: vs. A's (win)
Tuesday, Sept. 3: at Red Sox (no-decision)
Monday, Sept. 9: at White Sox (win)
Sunday, Sept. 15: vs. Royals (win)
Friday, Sept. 20: vs. White Sox (win)
Wednesday, Sept 25: at Twins (no-decision)

That final start could also be pushed to Friday, Sept. 27, putting Scherzer on track to start the first game of the postseason.

5. Miguel Cabrera versus Mike Trout: Here we go again. Well, sort of. In reality, this debate is stuck in three feet of mud and going nowhere. While Trout now leads Cabrera in both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs wins above replacemnet (WAR), Trout has no chance to win the AL MVP Award. This season would actually be a more interesting debate than last, when Trout was clearly the better -- and more valuable -- all-around player. The two major things that make this argument a nonstarter for voters: (A) The Angels haven't even sniffed the playoff races and (B) Cabrera is hitting .422 with an .867 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position.
6. Andrew McCutchen locks up the NL MVP Award with a big September. My vote would still go to Clayton Kershaw, but with just 13 wins, he's probably a long-shot MVP candidate for the voters. Look for McCutchen to finish strong and lead the Pirates to their first playoff trip since 1992, a storyline MVP voters will fall in love with.

7. Nobody will blame a mattress if they miss the playoffs. No crying in baseball, unless your team blows a nine-game lead in September.

8. Jon Lester leads the Red Sox to the AL East title. Clay Buchholz didn't pitch well in a rehab assignment on Sunday, throwing 38 pitches and walking three batters while recording just two outs. While Buchholz's return would bolster Boston's division title hopes if he pitches like he did the first two months -- over which he went 9-0 -- Lester has been doing his best pitching since before Boston's infamous September 2011 collapse. He's 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break, having allowed more than three runs only once and just three home runs. He's been throwing about nine more fastballs per start and fewer cutters, which is interesting because many analysts have suggested he fell in love with the cutter too much the past two seasons.

Anyway … Red Sox win the East, Rays win the wild card.

9. Tigers versus Dodgers in World Series. It the Year of Miggy. It's the Year of Kershaw. Maybe it's World Series destiny.

10. The World Series will go seven games. Kershaw versus Scherzer? Tie game in the ninth, Kershaw still pitching, Cabrera up …

Throughout July, we're presenting 30 deals in 30 days: the best trade-deadline deal ever made by each team. We wrap up with the NL West.

THE TEAM: Colorado Rockies

THE YEAR: 2009

THE SITUATION: The Rockies rarely do much at the trade deadline -- in part because they haven't been in contention all that often in their history, in part because the organization hasn't been willing to take on salary.

On July 23, 2009, the Rockies were nine games behind the Dodgers in the NL West but leading the wild-card race by 1.5 games over the Giants. Outside of closer Huston Street, however, the bullpen was shaky.

THE TRADE: The Rockies acquired Rafael Betancourt from the Indians for minor league pitcher Connor Graham.

THE AFTERMATH: Betancourt gave the Rockies a reliable setup guy in front of Street and he went 3-1 with 1.78 ERA in 25.1 innings down the stretch as the Rockies held on to win the wild card. They'd lose in four games to the Phillies in the Division Series as Street lost two games, including blowing a 4-2 lead in the ninth inning of Game 4.

Betancourt re-signed with the Rockies after the season and has a career 2.97 ERA with Colorado. His 7.4 WAR since 2009 ranks tied for 10th among relief pitchers.

Graham never reached the majors.

The Tampa Bay Rays are the hottest team in Major League Baseball. They have won 20 of their past 24 games and are 15-2 in the month of July, culminating in their three-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays this weekend. After an uncharacteristic and erratic start to the season, the Rays' pitching staff is leading the current charge. During the 24-game hot streak, the staff has allowed 54 earned runs in 222 innings (2.18 ERA).

Multiple injuries in the rotation have forced the club to test the limits of their pitching depth. This would be a problem for most teams, but not the pitching-rich Rays organization. With David Price and Alex Cobb on the shelf, Tampa Bay turned to a trio of rookies: Alex Colome and Jake Odorizzi were called up first, but it has been Chris Archer -- ranked as the team's top pitching prospect coming into the season -- who has helped the club surge to the top of the American League wild-card race and within reach of first place in the East.

Archer initially struggled after being called up (4.40 ERA, 5.3 BB/9 in his first six starts) but took advantage of a soft spot in the schedule heading to the break. He closed out the first half with three victories, allowing two earned runs with 15 strikeouts and three walks in 21 innings. He tossed his first shutout as a professional against the Houston Astros a week ago today.

The Toronto Blue Jays have been a disappointment this season, but their offense is potent. After feasting on the weaker lineups in the league, Archer would be tested on Sunday. On results alone, he passed. He allowed just one run on five hits in seven innings of work. Following back-to-back starts without allowing a walk, he issued four free passes and struck out just one.

Despite the lackluster peripherals, Archer was at his best when he needed to be against the Blue Jays. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have combined to hit 86 extra-base hits this season, including 48 home runs. The duo went 0-8 against Archer and left seven men on base against the Rays’ powerful righty; Archer used upper-90s fastballs to retire the powerful combo in seven of the eight appearances.

With Alex Cobb set to return to the Rays' rotation in August, Archer's immediate future is uncertain. But even if he is temporarily bounced from the rotation, his high-octane arsenal may make him a weapon out of the bullpen down the stretch.

Archer was not the only young pitcher making a big start for a contender on Sunday. Aside from accomplished, young veterans such as Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner, the day’s slate included some lesser known names that -- despite their lack of star power -- are equally important to their teams’ playoff chances.

Coming into the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates' Jeff Locke was a somewhat soft-tossing left-hander with a 5.82 ERA in 12 career appearances. Eighteen starts later, he is a National League All-Star. The All-Star nod notwithstanding, Locke's performance has flown largely under the radar, although the 25-year-old went 8-2 with a 2.15 ERA in the first half. A sore back kept him from pitching in the Midsummer Classic, but he was back on the mound Sunday looking to help the Buccos avoid a sweep at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds.

Shin-Soo Choo led off the bottom of the first inning with an infield single for the Reds. It would be the only hit allowed by Locke in six innings of work. Despite that one hit, the southpaw was not exactly dominant: He walked four batters -- including Zack Cozart and Corky Miller in back-to-back plate appearances -- and allowed his only run to score on a wild pitch.

Although Locke's average fastball registers at less than 91 mph, his "heater" has been a huge problem for opposing hitters. In fact, the .176 opponents’ average against his fastball is the lowest among qualified MLB starters. Locke is not a control artist (not with his 11.1 percent walk rate), but he does a good job of locating the fastball arm-side: He keeps the pitch away from righties and in on lefties, but most importantly he keeps it in the lower half of the zone. Against the Reds, he used the fastball to record 14 with five of those strikeouts.

Behind Locke's effort, the Pirates avoided a sweep and extended their NL wild-card lead to three games. Along with A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano, the New Hampshire native gives Pittsburgh an unexpected and formidable top of the rotation. This trio, backed by a solid bullpen, may land the Pirates in the playoffs for the first time in 20 years.

Like Archer, Tyler Chatwood began the season in the minor leagues for the Rockies. Acquired from the Los Angeles Angels in winter of 2011, he was promoted in late April before briefly returning to Triple-A. He was recalled again in mid-May and has been a surprise performer in Colorado’s rotation ever since.

Chatwood relies on a heavy, low-90s fastball. Relying heavily on the heater, he has a ground-ball rate near 60 percent. The pitch has helped him keep the ball in the yard in spite of the fact that he pitches half of his games in Coors Field.

Although the Rockies entered play on Sunday with a record of 47-51, they were just three-and-a-half games out of first place in the NL West. Similar to the pitchers mentioned above, Chatwood was not particularly sharp, but he was good enough to help his team win, allowing two runs (one earned) on seven hits in six innings. He walked more batters (four) than he struck out (two), but held true to form, generating 12 outs on the ground. The sixth inning home run he allowed to Anthony Rizzo was only the third homer he has surrendered in just over 76 innings of work.

If Colorado hopes to complete another second-half comeback, Chatwood is key to stabilizing a rotation that has been in flux at times. That's quite the leap for a 23-year-old that started the season behind Jeff Francis and Jon Garland on the depth chart.

Locke, Archer and Chatwood: None of them household names yet, but all three stand a chance to make themselves known as they help their teams push toward the postseason.

Tommy Rancel is a writer for The Process Report, the SweetSpot network blog covering the Tampa Bay Rays. You can follow him on Twitter @TRancel.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Martin Prado

Prado was the key player the Diamondbacks got in return for Justin Upton in a trade with the Braves last offseason. Since playing more or less every day at a number of positions from 2009-12 in Atlanta, Prado posted a 109 adjusted OPS (100 is average). In his first year in Arizona, however, it is a meager 83. The D-Backs expected a lot more from him than they are getting, and if they intend to maintain their lead in the NL West, they will need Prado to bounce back.

Atlanta Braves: B.J. Upton

Before injuries decimated their outfield right before the All-Star break, the Braves were quite fine even with B.J. Upton failing miserably in the first year of his five-year, $75.25 million contract. B.J. himself (strained adductor muscle) joins brother Justin (calf strain), as well as Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Jordan Schafer among key position players who are injured. B.J. can mitigate a lot of that lost offense by recapturing his offensive prowess from his days with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Chicago Cubs: Starlin Castro

The Cubs thought they had one of the league's future stars at shortstop in Castro, but he has significantly regressed in his fourth season in the majors. His OPS is down by more than 120 points, he isn't stealing bases with nearly the same frequency, and his defense has by many accounts gotten worse. He is only 23 years old, but the Cubs signed him through 2019 on a seven-year, $60 million extension. Castro flaming out would be devastating to the restructured Cubs, so he needs to use the second half to put himself back on the map.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips

Phillips may be the team's top RBI guy, but he leaves plenty to be desired offensively. His current .413 slugging percentage is a career low dating back to 2006 when he started playing regularly. While he has hit plenty of home runs (12), he is only sitting on 15 doubles. Additionally, he stole 15 bases in 17 attempts last season, but has stolen only one base in three attempts this year. Phillips would be deserving of the accolades he has received this year if he were to rediscover his power and baserunning skills.

Colorado Rockies: Michael Cuddyer

The Rockies are still in it despite being four games under .500. A big reason they are even where they are is because Cuddyer is having a career year at the age of 34. His current .330 average, .391 on-base percentage and .568 slugging percentage all represent career highs, vastly exceeding his previous career bests. Some of the success is because of his home ballpark, and some of it is because of plain old luck, but the Rockies won't be able to keep up in a mediocre but highly competitive NL West if Cuddyer regresses.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Yasiel Puig

Everything turned around for the Dodgers after Puig made his major league debut June 3. Since then, they have gone 24-15, moving up from fifth place to second place while cutting into their first-place deficit by five games. Puig hit so well in a month-plus (1.038 OPS) that it merited a serious discussion about his inclusion in the All-Star Game. The Dodgers have been ravaged by injuries, particularly in the outfield, including Puig himself battling a sore hip. The Dodgers will need Puig healthy and in top form for the next two and a half months if they have aspirations to take over the NL West.

Miami Marlins: Jose Fernandez

You can watch Giancarlo Stanton, too, and you'll have exhausted all of the reasons to watch the Marlins. True, they have been playing significantly better since June than they did in the first two months, but they're still 18 games out and already making plans for 2014. Fernandez, as you may have seen in the All-Star Game, has electric stuff and at 20 years old, has a bright future as a potential ace ahead of him. Seeing him pitch once every five days is a privilege which fans of many other teams do not have.
Milwaukee Brewers: Carlos Gomez

The 2013 season has been dismal for the Brewers as they are already 18 games under .500 and 19 1/2 games out and in last place in the NL Central. One of the few pleasant surprises, though, has been Gomez. After years of fumbling around as a failed prospect, Gomez decided to toss out years of coaching advice and become a power hitter. It worked. He is setting career highs across the board and along with his great defense and baserunning, is one of the top candidates for the NL MVP award. Gomez, only 27 years old, could brighten things up for Brewers fans by taking home some hardware at the end of the season.

New York Mets: Ike Davis

If it wasn't for B.J. Upton having a terrible year, Davis would have been talked about more as he heads into the second half with an OPS barely above .500. The Mets demoted him to Triple-A Las Vegas to work on his mechanics. Under the tutelage of 51s manager Wally Backman, Davis posted a 1.091 OPS in 21 games, earning a promotion back to the majors July 5. In eight games leading up to the All-Star break, he went back to his old ways, getting only five hits (all singles) in 32 trips to the plate. Davis is only 26 years old, but the Mets can only afford to give him so much rope before they are forced to make a tough decision about his future.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels

The Phillies will likely go into the July 31 trade deadline as buyers, as they are currently only 6 1/2 games out of first place in a very winnable NL East. They may add a center fielder to replace Ben Revere and they may add a reliever to back up Jonathan Papelbon. What they likely will not add is a starter, despite Hamels' very disappointing season in the first year of a six-year, $144 million contract. He leads the NL in losses with 11 and he has a 4.05 ERA. There is some strong evidence that his changeup -- his calling card -- is not the out-pitch it used to be, and he will have to recapture the feel for it if the Phillies want to have a second-half surge.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jeff Locke

There is some solid evidence based on sabermetric defense-independent statistics that a lot of Locke's first-half success is fluky, based heavily on a paltry .228 batting average on balls in play. He has neither the swing-and-miss stuff nor the pristine control emblematic of most pitchers with an ERA in the 2.15 area. A regressing Locke could start another second-half swoon for the Pirates.

San Diego Padres: Everth Cabrera

Cabrera may be one of the most surprising stories of the 2013 season. He was never considered to be a future star, but he is hitting .291 with a NL-leading 34 stolen bases in 42 attempts. Naturally, there is some skepticism about his ability to keep it going over a full season, and carry it over into 2014. Cabrera could assuage a lot of skepticism by maintaining his current level of play over the final 66 games.

San Francisco Giants: Matt Cain

The Giants are in a similar position with Cain that the Phillies are with Hamels. Cain is sitting on a 5.06 ERA in the second year of a six-year, $127.5 million contract. He is only 28 years old, so his 2013 season could very well be a fluke, but his control has been at its worst over the past five years and he has been more homer-prone than at any other point in his career. A rebounding Cain in the second half would mean the Giants remain contenders in the NL West.

St. Louis Cardinals: Chris Carpenter

The Cardinals are really good. They are so good that no one player really strides ahead in terms of importance, not even Adam Wainwright or Yadier Molina. Chris Carpenter, however, is working his way back from back and shoulder issues and made his first rehab start Monday. Getting him back, whether as a starter or a reliever depending on his durability, could give the Cardinals the same boost he gave them at the end of the 2011 season.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg was kept out of the postseason last year as part of a predetermined plan to reduce his innings pitched. The Nationals had reached the playoffs for the first time since moving to Washington, D.C., and for the first time as a franchise since 1981, when they were the Montreal Expos. It seemed as if the assumption was that Strasburg would have plenty more postseasons in which to pitch, including 2013. The Nationals have arguably been baseball's biggest disappointment, but Strasburg can help power them into playing in October with a strong second half.

Bill Baer is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog. He runs the Crashburn Alley blog on the Phillies.

NEW YORK -- Here's a fun piece of All-Star trivia: At 24, Matt Harvey is the youngest pitcher to start an All-Star Game since Dwight Gooden, also of the Mets, who was 23 in 1988.

How Harvey will fare in front of the home fans is one of the big story lines heading into the game. Let's hope he does better than the last pitcher to start at his home ballpark; Roger Clemens of the Houston Astros started in 2004 and allowed six runs in the top of the first inning, including home runs to Manny Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano.

Harvey, 7-2 with a 2.35 ERA, will face off against Detroit Tigers' right-hander Max Scherzer, 13-1 with a 3.19 ERA. As far as historical All-Star matchups go, this one is hard to call considering Harvey's youth. I'd give it a solid A for entertainment value, however, as both are two of the most exciting pitchers to watch, with upper-90s heat.

Pregame introductions
Mets fans don't disappoint, booing loudly when all Braves, Phillies and Cardinals players are introduced, although they do give a nice round of applause to former Met Carlos Beltran. Not that they've forgiven that strikeout to end Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. Many players are wearing bright glow-in-the-dark orange shoes, including Adam Jones and David Wright, leading my colleague Matt Meyers to quip that the Mets should make them their regular shoe color. Why not?

First inning
Top: The AL lineup is pretty lethal, arguably one of the best All-Star starting nines we've seen in years: Mike Trout, Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Jose Bautista, David Ortiz, Adam Jones, Joe Mauer and J.J. Hardy. Maybe not quite what the AL rolled out in 1934 -- eight future Hall of Famers -- but pretty impressive.

Trout leads with a double just inside the first-base bag. In case you've forgotten, Trout is good.

Harvey hits Cano on the kneecap with a 96 mph fastball. Yankees fans just realized their season could get worse. Harvey recovers to strike out Cabrera on a 92 mph slider, but Dustin Pedroia now enters to run for Cano. Can Derek Jeter play second base? Davis pops out to center. Fun factoid No. 2: He bats fourth in this lineup but fifth on his own team. I believe Buck Showalter may be overthinking that one. Anyway, Bautista fans on another slider. Good job by Harvey to escape what could have been a nightmare top of the first.

Also, the conspiracy theorists point out that Harvey is a Scott Boras client and Cano just dropped Boras as his client.

Bottom: The NL lineup has an obvious flaw in that Bruce Bochy decided to hit his worst hitter leadoff, but, hey, the game only determines home-field advantage for the World Series, something Bochy should know a little something about: Brandon Phillips, Carlos Beltran, Joey Votto, David Wright, Carlos Gonzalez, Yadier Molina, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Cuddyer, Bryce Harper. That's right, the Rockies have three players in the starting lineup. They're 46-50.

Scherzer has a 1-2-3 inning. Bochy's secret genius idea to hit Phillips leadoff fails to work.

Second inning
Top: Harvey has a 1-2-3 second inning, including a strikeout of Jones on 98 mph high heat. He leaves to a nice ovation from Mets fans. Job well done, Matt. Now back to your day job -- working for "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon."

Bottom: Well, Chris Sale is on for the AL. Looks like we're going to be treated to a long list of AL relievers later in the game. Brett Cecil! Glen Perkins! Steve Delabar! Greg Holland! What, that doesn't get you excited to watch All-Star baseball? To be fair to Jim Leyland, it's a strategy that could work. Sale mows down the National Leaguers with a nine-pitch inning.

Third inning
Top: Clayton Kershaw on for the NL. He's pretty good, too. He goes 1-2-3. Kershaw or Koufax? I guess Kershaw still has to do it in the World Series. Maybe he will. This year.

Bottom: Sale back in for a second inning! That crafty old fox Leyland! Sale strikes out Tulo, Cuddyer bounces back to the mound and Harper lines out sharply to Cabrera. Twenty-four pitches for Sale, 17 strikes. Nine up, nine down overall. I think you can make an argument that Sale is the best pitcher in the AL. And, no, the White Sox are not going to trade him.

X-rays on Cano a negative. He meets the media outside the AL clubhouse wrapped in 88 pounds of tape and Alex Rodriguez's contract.

Fourth inning
Top: Patrick Corbin of the Diamondbacks enters. All he has to do is face Cabrera, Davis and Bautista. Unfortunately, we don't get to see Kershaw versus Cabrera, which, apologies to Corbin and his family, is what an All-Star Game is supposed to be about. I'll predict this is the inning the AL breaks this 0-0 tie.

Cabrera drills a 1-2 slider to deep right-center for a leadoff double. Davis singles hard off the top of Votto's glove to move Miggy to third and then Bautista delivers the sac fly. Corbin escapes further damages with a 6-3 double play. He's a nice young pitcher and I wasn't trying to be rough on him, but Bochy probably should have called on a right-hander to start the inning with Cabrera leading off.

Bottom: Here comes the King! Felix Hernandez in for the AL and he's very happy that Raul Ibanez and Mike Morse aren't in the outfield behind him.

After leadoff hero Phillips grounds out, Beltran singles past a diving Hardy for the NL's first baserunner. Perfect game foiled. Andrew McCutchen in to pinch run for Beltran. And steals second! Never underestimate Bochy! Votto bounces out so it's up to hometown hero Wright and his magic orange cleats. Wright tops it to third, with Miggy making a nice play to show off his baseball athleticism. I mean, let's not get carried away, that's a play major league third basemen are supposed to make, but it was a nice play.

Fifth inning
Top: Paul Goldschmidt replaces Votto at first base. This is why I thought Goldschmidt should have started at DH. He and Votto have been two of the best hitters in the NL this year. Bochy could have gotten six plate appearances from the two, but now he'll get two from Votto, maybe one from Goldschmidt and maybe one for Allen Craig if he wants to get him in the game as well. Of course, I'm overthinking all this; the managers just want to get everyone in the game, which is understandable.

The AL pushes across another run against Cliff Lee. Adam Jones' orange shoes double to left, Mauer singles on a play Tulowitzki should have/could have made and Hardy's fielder's choice scores the run. At least we won't have the second 1-0 All-Star Game in history (not shockingly, coming in 1968, the Year of the Pitcher).

Bottom: Matt Moore with a quick 1-2-3 bottom of the inning. I think the only ball the NL has hit hard was Harper's lineout to Miggy at third base.

Sixth inning
Top: Glad to see Jose Fernandez of the Marlins get an inning. He's absolutely the real deal, a kid who will start one of these games in the future. He strikes out Pedroia and Davis around a Cabrera pop fly. Impressive. Note that Leyland left in Cabrera and Davis for a third plate appearances. Absolutely the right move considering they've been the two best hitters in the majors. Think somebody wants home-field advantage ... you know, just in case a certain team gets there.

Seventh inning
Top: David Wright still in the game. Starters aren't allowed to play seven innings! Bochy obviously wants to get him a third at-bat, but it also makes sense from a strategic standpoint. Pedro Alvarez is the backup third baseman and if Bochy brings him in, it would give Leyland a nice matchup of using lefties Glen Perkins or Brett Cecil to face Alvarez and Domonic Brown (now batting fifth), neither of whom hit lefties very well.

Bottom: Manny Machado with a nice play off a tricky hop to throw out Paul Goldschmidt from foul territory. Then the fun starts. David Wright singles off Greg Holland, so Leyland brings in Cecil to face Brown. If Bochy had some guts here, he’d pinch hit Allen Craig, but that kind of move doesn’t happen in an All-Star Game. Brown whiffs.

Leyland brings in Steve Delabar to face Buster Posey. Delabar was homer-prone last year (12) -- a reason the Mariners traded him to the Blue Jays -- but he has allowed just one this season. He fans Posey on a 2-2 slider. Good job, Leyland. If you have 13 pitchers, may as well use them. He still has Justin Masterson and Chris Tillman in reserve if the game goes extra innings, plus relievers Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins and Mariano Rivera.

Eighth inning
Top: Tweet of the day from Sam Mellinger: Salvador Perez’s hit was the first by a Royal in the All-Star Game since Bo Jackson in 1989 (although not his home run; that came in the first inning and he singled in the fourth). Jason Kipnis then doubles in Perez and it's 3-0 AL.

Bottom: Rivera in for the bottom of the eighth. Apparently, Leyland is worried that if the other relievers blow the lead this inning, Rivera wouldn’t get in the game. And a goosebump moment as the AL All-Stars remain off the field as Rivera begins his warm-ups; the most universally respected and beloved player in the game. Rivera gets a little weepy as the crowd gives him a big ovation and he doffs his cap.

By the way … Torii Hunter replaces Trout in center. He’s played one game there since 2010. Questionable move. Would Hunter really be crushed if he didn’t get into this game?

Anyway, beautiful pitching from Rivera, that effortless delivery that we’ll remember long after his retirement. He gets hugs from the entire AL team as he heads to the dugout. As J.J. Hardy said yesterday, "It’s great just to share a locker room with him for one day. It’s something I’ll tell my grandchildren about."

Ninth inning
Top: Prince Fielder leads off with a triple, but is stranded at third. (Yes, a triple.)

Bottom: Joe Nathan on for the save, the AL still up 3-0. No matter what happens, I’m pretty sure the most discussed aspect of the game will be Leyland’s decision to use Rivera in the eighth instead of the ninth. Me? I’ll just remember him warming up, a singular man in the middle of a baseball field, throwing a baseball.

(Nathan got the save and Rivera was named MVP. The AL wins with a three-hit shutout. Home-field advantage to the Tigers … or the A’s … or the Red Sox … or maybe, miracle of all miracles, the Yankees and Rivera.)

Stop if you've heard this before: The Sweet Spot Defensive Player of the Month for June is Atlanta Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons.

This marks the second straight month that Simmons has won in our voting, and the third time he's won since the start of last season.

Simmons had 13 Defensive Runs Saved for the month, the most of any player in the major leagues, and more than double the shortstop with the next-most (Alcides Escobar, 6).

We're just past the midpoint of the season, and Simmons has racked up 24 Defensive Runs Saved. His lead over all other shortstops is lopsided. You can add the Runs Saved totals for the shortstops with the second-, third-, and fourth-most DRS and they don't add up to Simmons' total.

The Defensive Runs Saved stat, created by Baseball Info Solutions founder John Dewan, has existed since 2003. Simmons has a legit shot at the record for most Defensive Runs Saved in a season, 35 by New York Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner in 2010, and the most by a shortstop, 34 by Adam Everett of the Houston Astros in 2006. Last year's shortstop leader was Brendan Ryan of the Seattle Mariners. He finished with 27.

It would be at least mildly surprising if Simmons didn't smash all those marks. He's played in 127 games since his recall last season, and has tallied 43 Defensive Runs Saved.

The biggest impediment to Simmons breaking those records isn't his defense, but his offense. After posting a .289/.335/.416 slash line in 2012, he's at .240/.278/.331 in 2013. His .609 OPS rates 12th-worst among the 160 players qualified for the batting title. And he is 11-for-60 in his past 15 games.

But once you've seen this and this, it's easy to tell: He's not letting his offense impact his defense, and it seems unlikely the Braves would bench him.

Who else had a standout defensive month?

Orioles third baseman Manny Machado finished second in our voting. His nine Defensive Runs Saved were the most of any third baseman, and his 21 for the season are the most at the position, and second-most for any player behind Simmons.

Machado is record-chasing too: The single-season mark for most Defensive Runs Saved by a third baseman is 30, set by Scott Rolen for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2004

Machado beat out Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, who finished third. Arenado continued his impressive run. He tied with Carlos Gomez (fourth in our balloting) for the most Web Gems for the month (3), and made 21 of what Baseball Info Solutions calls "Good Fielding Plays" -- the most for any player in the majors in June.

Lastly, a statistical salute to Giants rookie outfielder Juan Perez, who didn't place in our balloting (Michael Brantley rounded out our top five) but who did something rather impressive. In Perez's first 100 innings, he recorded five outfield assists, four in situations in which the runner was trying to advance a base.

Perez has only played in a couple weeks worth of games, but already ranks second on the team in Defensive Runs Saved for the season with seven, trailing only Gregor Blanco’s nine.

Quick! Name the best-hitting outfielder in baseball. No, not Mike Trout. Not Carlos Gomez, nor Carlos Gonzalez. Here's a hint: he's 34 years old and plays in the National League. Carlos Beltran is 36, so it's not him.

Still stumped? It's Michael Cuddyer. Yes, the oft-forgotten about outfielder in Colorado, playing alongside Dexter Fowler and Gonzalez, has been putting up monster offensive numbers. He set a Rockies club record on Thursday with a hit -- one of three -- in his 24th consecutive game. [Editor's note: He extended the streak to 25 games on Friday night.]

On Wednesday, he surpassed Todd Helton and Andres Galarraga’s club record of 42 consecutive games reaching base. He has logged multiple hits in each of his last four games and is hitting .390/.421/.590 over the span of his hitting streak, and .351/.402/.597. Not bad for a guy who has never hit .300.

Overall, Cuddyer has a .424 weighted on-base average (wOBA), best among outfielders and fifth-best overall, behind Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Troy Tulowitzki and David Ortiz. Going by weighted runs created (wRC+) which adjusts for league and park factors and sets the average at 100, Cuddyer sits at 161, well above his career average of 112 and his previous career high of 124 set in 2009 with the Twins.

The big question is, "Is it sustainable?" Detractors will rightfully point out that Cuddyer plays half his games at Coors Field, the consensus hitter-friendliest ballpark in baseball. He has a 1.103 OPS at home, but his .913 road OPS is nothing to sneeze at, and he's hit six of his 13 home runs on the road as well.

Cuddyer missed a month and a half at the end of the 2012 season due to an oblique strain in his first year with the Rockies. It may have affected his plate coverage as he posted a meager .324 wOBA on inside pitches. This year, he has a .448 wOBA on inside pitches. Perhaps most surprising, his wOBA on outside pitches has risen from .308 to .401. Comparatively, he hit .403 on pitches over the middle of the plate in 2012 and .413 in 2013.

His ability to handle fastballs hasn't really changed: .377 wOBA this year, .365 last year. However, he has become much more adept at handling "soft" stuff: .352 wOBA last year, .465 this year. Though a majority of the "soft" stuff is thrown away, Cuddyer has been pulling them in front of the left fielder and to left-center. On "soft" stuff put in play, Cuddyer has a .475 average.

That signals a large degree of unsustainability. Although hitters, to a much larger degree than pitchers, have their own natural BABIP (consider: Mark Teixeira has a .250 BABIP since 2010; Austin Jackson .369), they can still deviate wildly from season to season. Cuddyer has a career .309 BABIP and is at .391 overall for 2013. He isn't hitting for any more power, as his .247 isolated power (ISO, which is slugging percentage minus batting average) this season is only modestly better than last year's .229. On "soft" stuff, 21 of 40 hits (52.5 percent) went for extra bases last year compared to 14 of 34 (41 percent) so far this year.

The vast outfield at Coors Field is known for allowing cheap hits, since outfielders have to play deeper than they would normally. Cuddyer has a .370 BABIP on soft stuff at home, which is a bit high but within the range of normalcy. That pales in comparison to his .563 road BABIP on soft stuff.

Conversely, on fastballs, Cuddyer has a .412 BABIP at home (with a majority of hits going to right field) and .240 on the road.

There is no rhyme or reason to Cuddyer having success on fastballs at home and success on breaking balls on the road. It is just one of the many wacky things that happen with baseball stats throughout every season. Though luck has played a big factor in his success this year, that doesn't mean Cuddyer hasn't had a fantastic season, nor does it mean he won't continue to do so. As it stands, he should be a very deserving starter for the National League -- or at least earn a spot on squad -- in the upcoming All-Star Game in New York.

Bill Baer writes about the Phillies at Crashburn Alley and is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog.

The Washington Nationals were supposed to be the best team in baseball, a team that could win 100 games and maybe blow out the rest of the National League. But, you know, that would have been kind of boring, just doing what everyone expected. The fact that the Nationals are now 39-39 after losing 3-2 to the Diamondbacks in 11 innings on Thursday night makes them a more fascinating team to watch the rest of the way. Can they go on a run? Will Bryce Harper have a monster second half once he returns? How good is Anthony Rendon? And so on.

Here is my ranking of all 30 teams. Call it the Fascination Factor. These are the teams that will be the most interesting to watch in the second half.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates
They have to be the story of the season so far, right? A once-proud franchise suffers through a couple of lean years. OK, it was a couple lean decades. They tease fans the past two seasons with exciting first-half runs only to collapse quicker than you can say “John Van Benschoten.” But here they are, tied for the best record in baseball at 48-30, riding a surprisingly strong rotation and deep bullpen. They don’t score many runs but Andrew McCutchen is one of the game’s best all-around players and Starling Marte is one of the game’s most exciting. They called up a rookie starter who just threw a pitch 101 mph.

2. Baltimore Orioles
Watching Manny Machado line doubles all over the ballpark and Chris Davis mashing monstrous home runs makes me happy. And then there’s Adam Jones, who is having one of the more ridiculous seasons I can remember. He has taken “plate discipline” to a whole new level with 65 strikeouts and only eight walks, yet is hitting .297 with 15 home runs. Plus, you know the ninth inning is going be interesting: After losing just one game last season in which they led going into the ninth inning, the Orioles have already lost six this year.

3. Washington Nationals
I still feel like they have a 20-5 run in them and will end up fighting the Braves for the NL East title.

4. St. Louis Cardinals
If you don’t like Adam Wainwright's curveball then go back to watching “Wheel of Fortune.”

5. Detroit Tigers
They get a lot more interesting the closer they fall to the Indians. The fascinating aspect of this team isn’t just Miguel Cabrera's bionic hitting or Max Scherzer's quest to remain unbeaten, but how the Tigers will fare if pushed again in September. On paper, they should blow away the division; but like last year, that might not happen.

6. Los Angeles Dodgers
They’re getting more and more alluring with every Yasiel Puig hit, home run and diving catch. You know, it could happen. And would you want to play a team that could start Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke three times in a five-game series?

7. Oakland A's
How do they do it? Their regular catcher is hitting under .200. Josh Reddick, their best player last year via Baseball-Reference WAR, is hitting .218 with three home runs. Yoenis Cespedes is hitting .225 with an OBP under .300. Chris Young is hitting .188. Brett Anderson has made just five starts. Jarrod Parker got off to a slow start. Their best pitcher is 82-year-old Bartolo Colon. Amazing.

8. New York Yankees
Take away the pinstripes and imagine a team giving regular playing time to Jayson Nix, Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells, past-their-primes Ichiro Suzuki and Travis Hafner, and other no-names like Zoilo Almonte and Alberto Gonzalez. Now imagine that team competing for a playoff berth. Your head just exploded.

9. Cincinnati Reds
Is this Dusty Baker’s last shot for a ring? He signed a two-year extension but if the Reds miss the playoffs or make it and get eliminated in the first round again, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Cincinnati make a move. A quick comment on Joey Votto: Walks are not boring. So there.

10. Atlanta Braves
So many questions: Will B.J. Upton ever hit? Will Justin Upton hit again? Can Evan Gattis do this over the second half? Can the bullpen hold up? Is Jason Heyward a superstar or not? Is Dan Uggla becoming the player most despised by the hometown fans (even though he isn’t as awful as Braves fans think he is)? But here’s the biggest question: Will the Braves finish in first place for the first time since 2005 or win their first playoff series since 2001? OK, maybe that’s two questions.

11. Cleveland Indians
You know, 1948 was a very long time ago.

12. Boston Red Sox
I see the Red Sox as the best team in the AL East, not that they'll cruise to a division title. But things don't really get interesting in Boston until anxiety sets in for Red Sox Nation, so right now I can't rate them higher.

13. Tampa Bay Rays
The little engine that could. If David Price comes back showing his Cy Young form of 2012, Jeremy Hellickson gets turned around, Matt Moore starts throwing more strikes and Wil Myers slugs like a mad man, the Rays could have a fun second half.

14. Toronto Blue Jays
They haven’t made the playoffs since 1993. The only teams with a longer drought: the Royals (1985) and Pirates (1992). They’re back to .500 after that awful start but they’re still in last place. Can they recover and make the playoffs? Mark DeRosa hit cleanup Thursday night, which maybe answers that question.

15. Arizona Diamondbacks
They got grit. And Paul Goldschmidt.

16. Texas Rangers
Don’t get me wrong, they’re a good team and it should be a good race down to the wire between them and the A’s. For the Rangers, however, the storyline doesn’t begin until October: Can they get back to another World Series and finally win the first one in franchise history?

17. San Francisco Giants
Wait ... I thought the Giants just knew how to win.

18. Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout, Mike Trout, Mike Trout. There. I feel better.

19. Colorado Rockies
They were fun for a while and then Troy Tulowitzki got injured and they've gone 4-9 since. Despite having three guys slugging .600 (Tulo, Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer) they're under .500. Which isn't so shocking when you realize they gave 23 starts to Jeff Francis and Jon Garland. By the way, reliever Rex Brothers has allowed one run in 33.1 innings.

20. New York Mets
Matt Harvey pitches every fifth day. And then Zack Wheeler pitches every second fifth day and Giants fans get a little teary-eyed thinking of those two months of Carlos Beltran.

21. Philadelphia Phillies
As Phillies fans can attest, Delmon Young cancels out Domonic Brown.

22. San Diego Padres
Padres fans say the national media never gives them any respect. They’re probably right.

23. Kansas City Royals
I guess I’m supposed to believe, but they’ve hit 43 home runs in 76 games. That might have worked back in the days of Amos Otis and Tom Poquette, but that doesn’t work in 2013.

24. Minnesota Twins
This team is going to be fun to watch ... in a couple years when Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are anchoring the lineup.

25. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have three of the top 19 position players in the National League via Baseball-Reference WAR. And none of them are Ryan Braun. So that part of the team is exciting to watch. The part that includes Yuniesky Betancourt, not so much.

26. Seattle Mariners
There’s always King Felix and at least kids Nick Franklin and Mike Zunino are up and Raul Ibanez is going for the record for most home runs ever by a 41-year-old ... ahh, let's not fool ourselves. This team is awful. It’s slow, unathletic, is missing three-fifths of a rotation, the bullpen has flopped, and manager Eric Wedge keeps saying things like “the Pirates got two-out hits and we didn’t.” Eric, your team doesn’t get hits with no outs or one out, either.

27. Chicago Cubs
Dear Starlin Castro: It’s not too late, but we’re all starting to worry just a bit. I mean, Cubs fans don’t want to compare you to Neifi Perez just yet, but they’re getting there. And that $16 million option in 2020? Yeah, that’s not looking so good right now.

28. Houston Astros
While they might lose 100 games for the third straight season, they’re not as awful as everyone predicted. I’m not sure if that’s a compliment or not. Anyway, if some of their prospects like George Springer and Jonathan Singleton got called up, at least Astros fans could start seeing the future. By the way, Chris Carter is on pace for 221 strikeouts, so he could challenge Mark Reynolds’ single-season record of 223. Joe DiMaggio struck out 220 times in his first eight seasons.

29. Miami Marlins
Confession: The only time I check out the Marlins is when Jose Fernandez is pitching. Even then, I flip channels between half innings. And I feel a little guilty about this because Giancarlo Stanton deserves better.

30. Chicago White Sox
I'll give you Chris Sale, maybe the most underrated starter in the majors. Absolutely electrifying and unique to watch. I will not, however, give you Adam Dunn.

Quick thoughts on Tuesday's games ...

• It can happen to the best of teams, that one game where everything goes wrong. Mariners fans still get depressed over a 2001 loss to Cleveland in which Seattle blew a 12-0 lead, a loss that would cost the Mariners sole possession of the all-time wins record. The Tigers had one of those games Tuesday night in a 14-8 loss to the Angels. They gave up 16 hits, six walks and committed six errors for the first time since 1982; the home fans deserve a refund for that effort. Rick Porcello started and right when it appeared he'd turned a corner he's now allowed 19 hits and 13 runs his past two starts. In fact, that vaunted Tigers rotations has a few concerns. It still leads the AL with a 3.68 ERA (the Royals are second at 3.77), but Porcello remains inconsistent, Anibal Sanchez is on the DL, Doug Fister has a 4.35 ERA over his past 10 starts and Justin Verlander has a 6.04 ERA over his past nine starts. And Prince Fielder has a mediocre (for him) .754 OPS since May 1. Don't give them the division title just yet.
• I wrote last week how Boston third baseman Jose Iglesias' hitting streak was a mirage -- he'd had a lot of infield singles, bloops and groundballs with eyes -- but he's still hitting, going 3-for-5 in a 11-4 rout of the Rockies to raise his average to .434 in 126 PAs. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he's the fifth player in the past 80 years to maintain and average of at least .415 or higher through his first 32 games, joining Paul O'Neill (1994), Chris Chambliss (1986), Lee Lacy (1980) and Hank Aaron (1959). His hot bat led the Red Sox to send Will Middlebooks back to Triple-A, a move that had to be made with Middlebrooks hitting .192 and on-basing .228 (60 strikeouts, nine walks). Middlebrooks needs to learn the strike zone; I compared him to Jim Presley, the one-time Mariner third baseman who quickly faded from All-Star to out of the league in a few seasons due to his inability to control the strike zone. Middlebrooks may not even get to that All-Star level.
• Crazy ending to the Zack Wheeler-Chris Sale battle in Chicago. Wheeler again flashed that dynamite arm, averaging 95.7 mph on his fastball and touching 98. But he also walked three guys, hit a batter and struck out just one in 5.1 innings. Sale, meanwhile, fanned 13, the second time he's done that this year (he averaged a season-high 96.1 mph on his fastball). He's very, very good, a legit Cy Young contender stuck with a terrible offensive team. The White Sox led 4-3 with two outs in the ninth when this amazing play happened. White Sox announcer Hawk Harrelson nearly jumped out of the booth on that one. But the White Sox scored in the bottom of the inning to win 5-4 and hand the Mets their seventh walk-off loss, second-most in the majors.
• Ichiro Suzuki did this to give the Yankees a 4-3 win over the Rangers -- all four runs coming on solo home runs. The Yankees' first three home runs came off Yu Darvish, all on offspeed pitches; he'd allowed two home runs on offspeed pitches before Tuesday. For Ichiro, it was second career walk-off home run, and led to this great quote: "I was trying to end the game." Gotta love, Ichiro. His first career walk-off homer came off Mariano Rivera, back in 2009. Here it is. That was even more dramatic since it came with two outs and the Mariners down 2-1.
• Alex Gordon was facing Craig Kimbrel with the winning runs on base and two outs when he got attacked by a huge moth. As if facing Kimbrel isn't tough enough. The Braves ended up intentionally walking Gordon to load the bases and Kimbrel got Alcides Escobar to fly to right to seal the 4-3 win.
• The Season of Chris continued as he belted his 28th home run as the Orioles rallied from a 3-1 deficit with five runs in the seventh to beat the Indians 6-3. I was watching that game at the time and Justin Masterson had been cruising through six when he suddenly lost it. He hit Adam Jones, Davis homered to right, Matt Wieters walked, and after J.J. Hardy lined out and Chris Dickerson reached on an infield single, Alexi Casilla smacked a three-run homer. Just like that. He's the fifth player since 2001 with at least 28 home runs by the end of June (Albert Pujols 2009 Alex Rodriguez 2007, Barry Bonds 2001, Luis Gonzalez 2001). He also made two excellent defensive plays at first base.
• Wilin Rosario is strong.