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Quick thoughts on Wednesday's games ...

• The Orioles continue to impress, beating the Royals 5-3, improving to 21-13. They only had five hits, but took advantage of three Kansas City errors, and the bullpen backed up Chris Tillman with three scoreless innings. The one area the Orioles aren't getting production from is second base, where Ryan Flaherty is hitting .114 and Brian Roberts is on the DL. This is a good team, but I'm not sure the Orioles can count on Roberts staying healthy when he returns. What about going after Chase Utley, an impending free agent? This article by Wendy Thurm at FanGraphs points out that Utley has a no-trade clause to 21 teams, and the Orioles and Phillies are rivals by geographic proximity, but Utley makes perfect sense. He'd look pretty sweet in the third spot in the lineup between Manny Machado and Adam Jones.
• The Angels might have hit a low point -- and that's saying something -- in a 3-1 loss to Bud Norris and the Astros. As Jason Collette pointed out on Twitter, the Angels saw just 93 pitches, the third-lowest total of the season and lowest by an AL team. Even more remarkable -- they had 11 runners, with nine hits, a walk and a hit batter. Eight times the Angels put the first pitch in play (one of those was a Josh Hamilton home run) but the Astros turned four double plays. The Angels are 11-22, and last night's game had the appearance of a team playing out the string in a late September game. "It's still frustrating," Mark Trumbo told MLB.com. "You never want to stop feeling frustrated, because then you've pretty much given up hope. You come here each day with the mindset we're going to win the ballgame, so obviously it's a letdown when that doesn't happen."
• The Twins pounded Red Sox rookie starter Allen Webster, who looked like the JV kid called up to the varsity in his second career start. Not only does he look 15 years old, but he pitched tentatively and then grooved his fastball when behind in the count, and the Twins pounced. The 15-8 win pushed the surprising Twins to .500. David Ortiz also had his 27-game hitting streak dating to last season stopped. With the Twins playing respectable baseball, the Indians on a roll and the Royals four games over .500, the AL Central might be better than it has been in years.
• In a day game, Felix Hernandez outdueled A.J. Burnett for a 2-1 victory. The Pirates scored in the first when Starling Marte pulled a low fastball down the third-base line for a double and scored on Andrew McCutchen's hit. After walking Garrett Jones, the King got a double play and cruised after that. Burnett was just as tough, but Seattle scored one run without a hit thanks to two wild pitches, and then Jesus Montero homered in the seventh. What I didn't understand was Eric Wedge pulling Hernandez in the ninth. He'd only thrown 98 pitches and, yes, Tom Wilhelmsen has been solid, but I'd have let Felix finish it off.
• Another terrific start by Jordan Zimmermann, who shut down the Tigers for seven innings in the Nationals' 3-1 win. He's now 6-0 with a 1.59 ERA, and in his past three starts -- against the Tigers, Braves and Reds -- has allowed just one run. Zimmermann's approach is different from guys like Matt Harvey and Yu Darvish, who have dominated while racking up the strikeouts. Zimmermann pitches more to contact and has just 34 K's in 51 innings, despite which he's allowed just a .181 average thanks to a .209 average on balls in play. I like Zimmermann a lot, but I'm not quite ready to put him in the Hernandez/Darvish/Verlander/Harvey class. One thing that seems clear, however: He, and not Stephen Strasburg or Gio Gonzalez, is the ace of the Nationals.
• Goldschmidt happens. Again.

"I don't think I ever got proper credit about being smart about the game." -- Rickey Henderson

When was the golden age for leadoff hitters?

Well, 1965 was pretty good. Joe Morgan was a rookie that year and hit his way into the leadoff spot, where he posted a .943 OPS. Felipe Alou started 108 games in the leadoff position and hit .303 with 20 home runs. Zoilo Versalles was the American League MVP, started 155 games there for the Twins and led the league in runs, doubles, triples and total bases. Pete Rose and Lou Brock started large chunks of games there. Maury Wills stole 92 bases.

How about 1975? Rose, Ken Singleton and Bobby Bonds each had more than 400 plate appearances from the top spot and on-base percentages over .400. Davey Lopes stole 72 bases, and Brock swiped 56. Guys such as Bernie Carbo, Roy White, Don Money and Al Bumbry were productive when hitting there.

There was 1987, with Henderson, Tim Raines, Paul Molitor, a second-year kid named Barry Bonds, Brett Butler, Brian Downing and Lou Whitaker. Remember Kal Daniels? He started 74 games for the Reds as the leadoff hitter that year and hit .337 with 22 home runs.

And 2004 seems like a good season. Ichiro Suzuki hit .377 with 251 hits as a leadoff guy. Johnny Damon scored 123 runs and drove in 94. Other leadoff success stories were Ray Durham, Jimmy Rollins, some Derek Jeter, .336-hitting Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal. Craig Biggio hit .281 with 23 home runs and 46 doubles leading off. Pretty stellar group.

Good years all. Maybe you grew up in the '80s, when it seems half the teams had leadoff hitters who could swipe 50-plus bases -- Vince Coleman, Juan Samuel, Willie Wilson, Omar Moreno. Maybe that feels like the best era for leadoff hitters.

It isn't. The golden age is now.

I checked every season since 1950 and compared the production of leadoff hitters to the overall major league batting totals. Granted, it's only early May, but at their current rate, leadoff hitters have never hit better when compared to their peers. Here's a table listing the top 10 seasons by leadoff hitters (since 1950), using OPS compared to league OPS. Also included are the league-average runs per game and the number of stolen bases and runs scored per 650 PAs.


Using OPS is an imperfect method, because it doesn't factor in speed and stealing bases. That's why I included the totals for steals and runs per 650 PAs. Stolen bases don't really have a large effect on run scoring. Compare 2013 to 1990; the run-scoring environments were essentially the same (4.3 runs per game), and while the 1990 guys swiped 10 more bases per 650 PAs, they scored fewer runs. Stolen bases are down a bit in 2013, and certainly injuries to big stolen-base guys such as Jose Reyes and Michael Bourn have dragged down those steal totals a bit.

If there was a golden era before 2013, it looks like that 1990-1992 period, which featured leadoff hitters such as Henderson, Molitor, Lenny Dykstra, Wade Boggs, Tony Phillips, Bip Roberts, Butler, Delino DeShields, Raines, Biggio, Brady Anderson and Devon White.

But never before have we seen the depth in quality leadoff hitters that we're seeing this year. Yes, some of this is a result of the readjustment of offensive levels in recent years. From 1993 to 2006, leadoff hitters never posted OPS totals above the MLB average; as offensive totals boomed, leadoff hitters looked worse compared to their peers. The decline in offensive numbers has brought the rest of the pack back closer to leadoff hitters, but even the raw OPS total for 2013 of .759 is tied for the fourth highest behind 1987 (.764), 2006 (.762) and 2007 (.760).

Look at the best leadoff hitters in the game right now -- a group that doesn't even include Mike Trout, who has started only eight games in the leadoff spot, or the injured Reyes: Shin-Soo Choo (leading the majors in OBP), Austin Jackson (31 runs in 31 games), the underrated Alex Gordon, Ian Kinsler off to big start, Carl Crawford looking healthy and good again, Jacoby Ellsbury, the emerging Dexter Fowler, unsung Norichika Aoki and Starling Marte, perhaps a star in the making in Pittsburgh. Baltimore's Nate McLouth is a platoon player but has a .423 OBP hitting leadoff.

But what really makes 2013 a golden age is the quality behind those players. Others who have hit regularly there include Coco Crisp, Jose Altuve, Denard Span, Angel Pagan, Gerardo Parra, Michael Brantley, David DeJesus and Brett Gardner, all of whom have provided solid production.

One thing managers have wised up on -- for the most part -- is that batting a speedy guy leadoff isn't worth it if his OBP is under .300. Coleman had 670 PAs and stole 107 bases with the Cardinals in 1986 but still scored only 94 runs. The days of guys like Brian Hunter (.282 OBP in 1999 while starting 102 games with the Mariners in the leadoff position) burning up 500 PAs are gone. Managers won't stick with a guy that long anymore. (Well, Dusty Baker might, but Walt Jocketty acquired Choo for him this year.)

So, no, maybe there isn't one player the equal of a Henderson (of course not, that's like saying there's nobody who can hit like Babe Ruth) or Raines, or a 1993 Dykstra or in-his-prime Ichiro, but appreciate the guys out there: There's a lot of quality.

The Washington Nationals, fresh off a 98-win season and expecting a similar result in 2013, enter their weekend series with fewer wins than their surprising opponents, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Which team is better? That's an easy one. It's the team with Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. Of course, those three guys are all in the news for various reasons and, as we've seen in the past, to various degrees. Will Strasburg and his secretive forearm "problem" pitch? Will Harper avoid turning his bruised lat into a bigger issue? And Zimmerman's hamstring is healed, and he's slated to come off the DL Friday, but how long before his balky shoulder forces him out of action again? Here is what else to watch this weekend.

Rivalry rekindled: We don't exactly throw the records out when the Nats and Bucs meet, but things tend to get interesting when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants get together, for better and occasionally, worse. The team's aces, however, are in far different places these days. Lefty Clayton Kershaw is dominating, again. He's scheduled to face the still-effective Barry Zito Friday. On Sunday night on ESPN the Giants will send Matt Cain to the mound. Cain has already permitted nine home runs, matching his season total from 2011. Last year he allowed 21. Dodgers Adrian Gonzalez (4 homers off Cain) and Andre Ethier (.450 batting average) are licking their chops.

Red Alert: Hyun-Jin Ryu and Shelby Miller enter the weekend leading rookie pitchers in strikeouts, but then it's electric Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani, boasting 28 whiffs in a mere three starts. Cingrani is scheduled to flummox Chicago Cubs hitters at Wrigley Field on Saturday, and one has to think when ace right-hander Johnny Cueto comes off the DL in a week or two that the rookie has done enough to secure his starting role. Or has he? Manager Dusty Baker does love his veterans. Regardless, enjoy Cingrani while he's dominating.

David vs. Goliath: Sunday's matchup in Houston sure doesn’t seem like a fair fight between hurlers with no-hitters to their credit. The Detroit Tigers send Justin Verlander to the mound. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. He's really good, wins awards, gets the commercials and the ladies. The Houston Astros send Philip Humber out there. He threw a perfect game in Seattle barely a calendar year ago, but things have not gone so well since then. Humber boasts a 7.44 ERA since, and this season he's 0-6 with a 7.58 ERA. You know you're curious how this one ends up, admit it.

Price's punishment: David Price and umpire Tom Hallion didn’t quite get along this past weekend, resulting in tweets and fines and probably much ado about nothing. What's worse for pending future gadzillionaire Price, the $1,000 fine levied on him by Major League Baseball, or having to pitch Saturday at Coors Field? Lotsa runs get scored in that place. Price pitched there once, allowing five runs in seven innings and losing the game in 2009. Could we make the case the paltry fine is offset by the potential damage to Price's ERA and his next contract? OK, perhaps not. But watch two pretty good teams go at it. The Rays are sputtering in fourth place, the Rockies start the weekend in first place, hoping shortstop Troy Tulowitzki will play and avoid injury. Cross your fingers.

Worst to first: Alas, the lone matchup of first-place teams this weekend pits the surprising Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers. The Cinco de Mayo game on Sunday features Jon Lester and Yu Darvish, which should be interesting. Lester seems rejuvenated, though his outing earlier this week in Toronto was a rough one. Darvish, off to a blistering start and leading the majors in strikeouts, faced the Red Sox once in his rookie season, but it was at Fenway Park. This one is in Texas. Expect another terrific outing for the eventual AL Cy Young winner.

Enjoy your weekend!

We've brought back the Defensive Player of the Month Award for the 2013 season, and our choice for April, Orioles third baseman Manny Machado, was in the ESPN spotlight with a pair of stories on Tuesday.

The Stats & Info Blog ran through Machado's defensive credentials since his recall. Breaking those down into those accumulated in the season's first month, they are:

--5 defensive runs saved, tied with Evan Longoria and Matt Dominguez for the most in the majors at third base.

--13 "Out of Zone" plays (in other words, plays made outside the zones in which third basemen most often turn batted balls into outs), tied for the most with Dominguez.

--6 Web Gems, the most of any player in baseball, and twice as many as any of the eight other nominees we considered combined.

The voting was handled by ESPN.com writers, baseball analysts and researchers from ESPN and Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), and includes Doug Glanville, Jayson Stark, Jonah Keri and Eric Karabell. Each voted for a first-, second- and third-place finisher, with points awarded on a 5-3-1 basis

Machado was a well-deserved winner, earning seven of the 10 first-place votes, but also getting defensive props for the month were:

Starling Marte, Pirates LF
Marte was the runner-up to Machado in our voting. He led major league left fielders with seven defensive runs saved, three more than any other player at that position.

One of the reasons that Marte rates so highly statistically is because he had two home run-robbing catches during the month -- in other words, plays that directly saved runs. They weren’t your classic Mike Trout, scale-the-wall leaping grabs. In each instance, Marte raced back to a low left-field fence and made a reaching grab to snag a would-be home run.

For more on Marte's impact this month, check out the ESPN Insider piece from Scott Spratt on the significant improvements to the Pirates' defense.

Evan Longoria, Rays/Matt Dominguez, Astros
This was a good month for third basemen. We mentioned that Longoria and Dominguez finished tied with Machado in runs saved at the position.

Longoria had three Web Gems, second most among our nominees, and was slightly better than Dominguez in terms of good play/misplay & error ratio (documented by Baseball Info Solutions' video tracking).

Norichika Aoki/Carlos Gomez, Brewers
Aoki and Gomez both had great months from a statistical perspective. Aoki led right fielders with nine defensive runs saved. Gomez had the most among center fielders with seven.

It seemed odd to us that both had such high ratings, and in surveying Brewers fans on Twitter, we got a partial explanation why. The Brewers' coaching staff has been playing their outfielders, particularly Aoki, very deep. That's allowed them to take away a few potential extra-base hits, with a limited cost thus far.

That's reflected in both their numbers. BIS' range rating (a "plus-minus system") has Aoki taking away 17 bases above what the average fielder would take away on balls hit to the deepest parts of the park (in other words, a bunch of extra-base hits) and being five bases below average on balls hit to the shallowest parts of the outfield. Gomez has taken away 10 bases on deep balls, and one on the shallow balls.

It's an interesting strategic decision, and one that bears watching throughout the regular season to see if the numbers hold up.

Andrelton Simmons, Braves
This isn't the first time we've talked about Simmons' defense and it certainly won't be the last. Simmons led shortstops with six defensive runs saved for the month. He converted 92 percent of the balls hit into shortstop "zones" (the areas in which a shortstop gets outs more than half the time) into outs, second best in the majors to Cliff Pennington.

Simmons had an outstanding month. Machado just happened to be a little bit better.

As a reminder:

Odds to win AL East, March 25 (Bovada.lv)
Blue Jays +160
Rays +250
Yankees +350
Red Sox +550
Orioles +750

AL East projected standings, March 26 (Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system)
Blue Jays -- 94-68
Rays -- 88-74
Red Sox -- 84-78
Yankees -- 83-79
Orioles -- 82-80

Picks to win AL East, March 30 (ESPN baseball contributors)
Blue Jays -- 20
Rays -- 20
Orioles -- 2
Yankees -- 1
Red Sox -- 0

Before the season began, everyone talked about how the AL East would be the crazy island of division races, but the consensus was the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays were the two best teams and the other three would be left fighting for wild-card scraps.

Only four of ESPN's 43 baseball contributors picked the Red Sox to even make the playoffs. I was one. As we close in on the end of April, the Red Sox own baseball's best record and are doing it in impressive fashion: 18-7, including 11-5 at home and 7-2 on the road; third in the AL in runs; third in fewest runs allowed; owners of the best run differential in the majors at +40.

Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz have rightfully received a lot of the credit for going a combined 9-0 in 10 starts and allowing just 13 runs. Free agent Mike Napoli is second in the majors with 27 RBIs. Daniel Nava has hit himself into more playing time with a .310 average, four homers and 16 RBIs. Jacoby Ellsbury is healthy and providing energy at the top of order. John Lackey even won on Sunday, so you know things are going well.

But if one player best sums up Boston's April, it's David Ortiz, the heart and soul of the franchise. I imagine Big Papi will get old one of these years. Maybe the bat speed will suddenly slow and he'll turn into that most discouraging of sights: the aging slugger who can no longer hit. That's not going to happen in 2013. In eight games since returning from the DL, Papi has come back with a vengeance by hitting .516 with seven extra-base hits and 11 RBIs. Eight of his 16 hits have gone to left field as he has beat the shift teams usually put on against him. Most importantly, the Sox are 7-1 in those games. With Ortiz in the cleanup spot, the Red Sox lineup looks complete: Speed with Ellsbury, on-base skills with Nava and Pedroia, Ortiz and Napoli in the middle. This lineup just beat the Astros four straight times at home.

It's the kind of lineup that can win a division, especially if Will Middlebrooks and Stephen Drew start inflicting some damage from the bottom of the order. As I hand out some April grades, the Red Sox and Big Papi both earn an A+ for their inspiring start.

Here are some more April grades for the American League (we'll do the National League on Monday night), starting with some other newsworthy mentions from the AL East.

New York Yankees: A. Explain this: No Curtis Granderson, no Mark Teixeira, no Alex Rodriguez, no Derek Jeter ... and the Yankees are 15-9 and lead the AL in home runs. Robinson Cano has seven but Travis Hafner and Vernon Wells, acquired off the scrap heap pile known as "former stars," have each hit six. Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda and Mariano Rivera continue to drink from that special supply of Hudson River water fed into the Yankee Stadium home clubhouse fountain of youth. The Yankees are, dare we say, a good story.

Baltimore Orioles: A. The O's suffered a tough loss on Sunday, but they're 15-10, and there's no crazy record in one-run games going on this year; the Orioles are 4-5 in such contests. The Orioles also have played well through what looked like a tough early slate: six against the Rays plus series against the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, A's, Dodgers and Twins. The offense is second to Oakland in runs scored with Davis (and his 28 RBIs) and Adam Jones leading the way.

Chris Davis, Orioles: A+. Has a good case as the AL MVP for April, which is nice but merely means: Prove it over the next five months.

Toronto Blue Jays: F. Yes, Jose Reyes went down early, but that alone isn't an excuse for a team that has been outscored by 35 runs. They've been awful in every phase of the game, and last week there was a game where John Gibbons hit Rajai Davis and Munenori Kawasaki 1-2. Embarrassing. The Blue Jays are 9-17, a good reminder that April games matter just as much as games in September. The worst April record of last year's playoff teams was the A's at 11-13, so it's possible to recover from a slow start. But ask the Angels how hard it is to recover from a terrible start.

Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays: F. The Jays were hoping there were getting 2011-12 Melky. Instead, they're getting the Melky (no homers, OPS under .600 so far) that Braves fans booed out of town in 2010. Obviously there are extenuating circumstances here with Cabrera's positive PED test last August. Did the PEDs help that much? Is he pressing? Just a slow start? Stay tuned.

Arte Moreno's pocketbook: D. On the heels of last year's mixed-review signings of Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson comes Josh Hamilton, who is hitting .219 with two home runs. The Angels just lost three of four to the dreadful Mariners and you can't just blame the rotation: They scored three runs in the three losses.

Mike Trout, Angels: C+. Trout is hitting .263/.330/.424 with two home runs, and people are already screaming sophomore slump. Come on. Look deeper and you'll see the strikeout and walk rates are basically the same as last year; he has eight doubles and his line-drive rate is higher. He'll be fine.

Yu Darvish, Rangers: A-. He had the near-perfect game and opponents are hitting just .165 off him with no home runs. So why only an A-? Well, he has faced the Mariners and Astros in three of his five starts (and the struggling Angels in his other two), so before declaring him the best pitcher in the AL, let's see him face some of the league's better offenses. I mean, he might be the best pitcher in AL, but I want to see him shut down the A's or the Red Sox or the Tigers before making that declaration.

Kansas City Royals: B+. The pitching has been outstanding with James Shields as advertised (although poor run support means he's just 1-2 despite his 3.09 ERA) and Ervin Santana (3-1, 2.00 ERA), with a nifty 31/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Yes, Royals fans have forgotten about Jonathan Sanchez and Will Smith. The bad news is Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas haven't hit (no home runs).

Rick Ankiel, Astros: C-. On one hand, he has five home runs and 11 RBIs. On the other, he had 29 strikeouts and one walk in 50 plate appearances, meaning he's fanned in nearly 60 percent of his PAs. Baseball in 2013, everyone!

Jeff Keppinger, White Sox: F. Owner of my favorite batting lines so far: He's hitting .202 but his on-base percentage is .198.

Vernon Wells, Yankees: A. Leads AL outfielders in WAR! Better WAR than Trout, Hamilton and Peter Bourjos combined! You can't predict baseball.

Matt Moore, Rays: A-. With Cy Young winner David Price struggling and just capturing his first win, Moore has held the Tampa staff together with his 5-0, 1.13 ERA mark. Opponents are hitting just .113, a figure obviously unsustainable, so I'd still like to see Moore cut his walk rate. But boy, is he fun to watch.

Weather: F. The Minnesota Twins might have to schedule some tripleheaders in July.

With strikeout rates at record levels, that inevitably means we're going to get some crazy strikeout totals for hitters. Let's take a stroll through some of my favorite numbers heading into Monday's games.

• Adam Dunn, White Sox: 26 SO, 3 BB in 69 PAs. Dunn, of course, has always struck in prodigious numbers, but he's taking it to a new level this year, whiffing in 37.7 percent of his plate appearances, which would top his previous career worst of 35.7 percent in 2011. To make matters worse, he's stopped walking. And is hitting .108.
• J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays: 28 SO, 1 BB in 73 PAs. The Toronto catcher is tied with Houston's Chris Carter for the major league strikeout lead at 28. What's fun about his line is he has just one walk, so he has a .260 OBP to go with his .250 batting average. He also has belted seven home runs so he's slugging over .600, so he could be headed for the worst 30-homer season in history.
• Rick Ankiel, Astros: 23 SO, 0 BB in 35 PAs. My lord. That's a strikeout rate of 65.7 percent! He's made contact 12 times and has eight hits, including four home runs. Still ... 23 whiffs in 35 PAs. By the way, the non-pitcher "record" for most strikeouts in a season without drawing a walk belongs to Alejandro Sanchez, a DH/outfielder on the '85 Tigers who had 39 strikeouts and no walks in 133 PAs. The "record" for most PAs without a walk for non-pitcher belongs to Craig Robinson, an infielder on the '73 Phillies, who had 148 PAs. Here's the funny thing: Robinson turned that season into a gig as the Braves' starting shortstop in 1974. He hit .230 with no home runs but did draw 30 walks in 506 PAs.
• Ryan Braun, Brewers: 20 SO, 10 BB in 60 PAs. Braun is putting up his usual big numbers but his strikeout rate of 33 percent is sixth highest among qualified hitters. But his walk rate is up 7 percent over the past two years. (Colby Rasmus, Arencibia's Blue Jays teammate, has the highest K rate among regulars at 43.5 percent.)
• Will Middlebrooks, Red Sox: 22 SO, 3 BB in 72 PAs. Outside of that three-homer game, Middlebrooks has been terrible, hitting .172 overall and 2 for his last 25. Until he learns to lay off those pitches out of the zone he's not going to help the Sox much. A stint back in the minors may eventually be needed.
• Josh Hamilton, Angels: 23 SO, 5 BB in 77 PAs. Compared to last year, Hamilton's K rate is up and his walk rate is down. He's second only to Pablo Sandoval in swing percentage on pitches outside the strike zone among regulars. His approach hurt him in the second half last season and is a main reason he's struggling early on (.176, 2 HR).

One of the first major impacts Bill James made as a sabermetrician was pointing out the huge effect that ballparks had on statistics. I mean, people always knew that Fenway Park and Wrigley Field were good hitting parks, or that the Astrodome was a lousy place to hit home runs, but that doesn't mean people in the game properly accounted for these factors. For decades, the Cubs always overrated their hitters and underrated their pitchers. That was one reason they were the Cubs.

Obvoiusly, a park can drastically effect our view of a player if we're not aware of the advantage he's receiving from his home park. Here are a few historical players who received a big boost from their home park or parks.

Jim Rice
When Jim Rice hit the Hall of Fame ballot after his 16-year career with the Red Sox, the debates got ugly. Rice was feared, argued his supporters; Rice was overrated, a beneficiary of Fenway Park, argued his detractors. During most of Rice's career in Boston, Fenway was a terrific hitter's park, the traditional Fenway of "no lead is safe" lore. Overall, Rice hit .320 with 208 home runs at Fenway but .277 with 174 home runs on the road. In his 1978 MVP season, Rice hit .361/.416/.690 with 28 home runs at home and .269/.325/.512 with 18 home runs on the road. The debates lasted until Rice's 15th and final year on the ballot when he made it in.

Sandy Koufax
Through 1961, Koufax was 54-53 in his career with a 3.94 ERA, a talented but erratic left-hander. Suddenly, in 1962, he put it all together, and over his final five seasons in the majors went 111-34 with a 1.95 ERA, leading the NL in ERA all five seasons. Koufax's control did improve dramatically, but something else happened in 1962: The Dodgers moved out of the L.A. Coliseum and into Dodger Stadium. In 1961, Koufax had a 2.77 ERA on the road … but 4.22 at home. In 1960, he had 3.00 ERA on the road … but 5.27 at home. In 1962, Koufax had a 3.53 ERA on the road … but 1.75 at home. In 1963, he was 2.31 on the road … and 1.38 at home. He had always been pretty good on the road, but the difference was he became unhittable at Dodger Stadium.

Nolan Ryan
Before finishing his legendary career with the Rangers, Ryan spent eight seasons with the Angels and nine with the Astros; that's 17 years in parks that heavily favored pitchers. Check out his career home/road splits, including his days with the Mets and Rangers: 189-136, 2.77 ERA at home; 135-156, 3.73 ERA on the road. Yes, Ryan had a career road record 21 games under .500.

Ryne Sandberg
Sandberg made the Hall of Fame in his third year on the ballot, with his reputation as an all-around player -- power, speed, defense -- overcoming some career counting stats that might be considered marginal for a Hall of Famer: 2,386 hits, 282 home runs, 1,061 RBI and a .285 average. But those totals would look even more marginal without a little help from Wrigley Field. Sandberg hit .300/.361/.491 with 164 home runs at home and .269/.326/.412 with 118 home runs on the road. (Ernie Banks, by the way, had a similar split: .290 at Wrigley and .259 on the road.)

Mel Ott
Ott hit 511 career home runs and led the NL in homers six times but took advantage of the short porch at the Polo Grounds to do so. He hit 323 home runs at home and 188 on the road. He was still a great hitter, however; on the road, he hit more doubles and triples and hit for a higher average, so his overall batting line was still an impressive .311/.408/.510 compared to .297/.422/.558 at home. But he wouldn't be a member of the 500-home run club if he'd played elsewhere.

Carl Yastrzemski
Fenway Park isn't the hitter's park it used to be. It's believed that renovations in 1988, which moved a new press box above the stadium club seats behind home plate, changed the air currents. It's also underrated as a good park for left-handed hitters, especially those who can go the opposite way and take advantage of the Green Monster. Yaz hit 237 home runs at home and 215 on the road, but he loved hitting at Fenway, with a .306 average there compared to .264 on the road. His OPS was 125 points higher at home than on the road. (Ted Williams hit .361 at Fenway and .328 on the road.)

Don Sutton
Like Koufax, Sutton enjoyed pitching at Dodger Stadium. He went 169-119, 2.81 at home in his career and 155-137, 3.77 on the road. Thirty-nine of his 58 shutouts came at home. Pulling out Dodger Stadium individually (which includes some road games when he pitched for the Astros), Sutton posted a 2.66 ERA there. Despite winning 300 games, he was a somewhat controversial Hall of Fame selection; he might have still won 300 games for another organization, but his ERA might have been a bit higher.

Would any of these guys not be a Hall of Famer without their home parks? It's difficult to say. Extreme talents can learn to take advantage of unique situations. But maybe Koufax's curveball was better because of the high mound at Dodger Stadium, or Ryan's fastball harder to pick up in the gloomy indoor lighting of the Astrodome. Rice, in particular, had a weak Hall of Fame case as-is; if he hadn't played for the Red Sox, I doubt he'd be in Cooperstown.

Blessed with one of the greatest fastballs in history and Cal Ripken Jr.-like durability for a pitcher, Nolan Ryan terrorized hitters for the better part of 27 years, retiring as the career leader in strikeouts (5714), fifth in innings pitched (5386), and tied for 14th in wins (324).

Ryan's competitiveness, intertwined with a well-known mean streak, became legendary, almost mythical, just like his ability to miss bats. Mike Hargrove, nicknamed the Human Rain Delay for the amount of time he spent getting ready between pitches, once tried to catch the defense sleeping by laying down a bunt against Ryan. It failed. And the next several pitches were of the high-and-tight variety, sending the lefty diving for safety. Finally, it clicked for Hargrove, who joked about yelling out toward the mound, "I'll never bunt again!"

But what if Ryan came up in today's baseball, a game of specialized bullpen roles with a high importance placed on closers? Would Ryan, who was plagued with control problems throughout the majority of his career, have been pushed into one of those one-inning roles long before he became a dominant starting pitcher?

Drafted in the 12th round by the Mets out of Alvin, Texas, in 1965, Ryan spent parts of three seasons developing in the minors. And while strikeout totals during this time are incomplete, one thing is certain: The man who would later earn the moniker The Ryan Express walked a lot of guys -- almost everyone, really.

In 291 innings split between rookie ball, Class A and Double-A, he offered up 200 free passes. Or 6.2 walks every nine innings. And his four-plus seasons with the Mets produced similar results.

Through the age of 24, Ryan tossed 510 innings, while striking out 493 (8.7 K/9) and walking a whopping 344 (6.1 BB/9). Forget command; it didn't exist. And his control was so poor that it regressed during each of his four seasons, going from 5.0 BB/9 to 5.3 to 6.6 to what would be a career high 6.9 in 1971, when he walked 116 batters in 152 innings.

Just to put that into context: the NL average during those years was 3.18 BB/9.

Faced with a situation in today’s era -- a 24-year-old flame-throwing hurler who's averaged 6.1 walks per nine innings through his entire career, spanning parts of seven professional seasons -- how many of the 30 clubs would continue to stick with him as a starting pitcher?

Add in the fact that sometime early in 1967 season, Ryan suffered an arm injury, one that led the Mets' team doctor to recommend surgery (he eventually rehabbed it by himself). Given that state, Ryan, the dominant starting pitcher, probably wouldn't exist in 2013.

Power arms plagued by ungodly control issues and a past arm injury don't occupy too many rotation spots in today’s game, not with the premium placed on back-end relievers. It just wasn't the case in the early '70s. Some teams -- including the Cincinnati Reds -- opt to keep potentially dominant pitchers in the bullpen as opposed to maximizing their potential value in the rotation.

But Aroldis Chapman is hardly the exception. Detroit moved a then 21-year-old Joel Zumaya, who averaged 11.8 punchouts and 4.5 walks per nine innings in 151.1 innings in the upper minors in 2005, to the bullpen the following year. Former big leaguer Bobby Jenks, a four-time member of Baseball America's top prospect lists, routinely put up huge strikeout and walk totals as a minor league starter before his conversion to the bullpen. And in 88 minor league appearances, 80 of which were starts, three-time All-Star closer Rob Nenn averaged 6.0 BB/9.

So would Ryan have become a modern-day reliever? Or would his incredible ability to maintain velocity deep into games be enough to keep scouts and front office personnel from moving him to a one-inning role?

The Mets, of course, famously gave up on Ryan, trading him to the Angels for veteran shortstop Jim Fregosi after that '71 season. It speaks to Ryan's incredible talent that he turned into a Hall of Famer. But it also speaks of the way teams handle pitchers. Instead of trading him, maybe the 2013 Mets would just put him in the bullpen.

Joseph Werner writes for It's Pronounced "Lajaway" and ProspectDigest.com. Follow him on Twitter @ReleasePoints.

Quick thoughts on Tuesday's games …

• Ahh, just a few short days ago the New York Yankees were 1-4 and the butt of jokes across baseball land. Now they've won three in a row after beating the Cleveland Indians 14-1. Andy Pettitte allowed just an Asdrubal Cabrera home run in his seven innings. He's 40 and looks as good as ever. Remember when Robinson Cano was hitting .130? This is why you should never look at first-week statistics unless you're Chris Davis' agent. In his past two games, Cano has seven hits, including three doubles and three home runs, and is now hitting .303. For the Indians, the rotation shuffle might already be starting. Carlos Carrasco made his first start since Tommy John surgery in 2011, wasn't effective and got ejected after hitting Kevin Youkilis. Brett Myers, Cleveland's scheduled starter for Wednesday, pitched the final 5.1 innings Tuesday, so Terry Francona will need to find a different starter, which maybe isn't the worst thing since Myers has already allowed seven home runs.
• [+] Enlarge
  AP Photo/Jeff ChiuTim Lincecum had another bumpy outing, but the Giants comeback got him off the hook.
  Tim Lincecum had another shaky outing. After walking seven in his first start, he walked four in this one but did manage to scuffle through six innings. Through four innings he had thrown 71 pitches -- 37 strikes, 34 balls -- and had twice walked opposing pitcher Juan Nicasio. He was, as the ball/strike ratio indicates, all over the place. He was a little better his final two innings -- 33 pitches, 24 strikes -- but he certainly didn't placate any concerns. It ended up being a tough loss for the Colorado Rockies, off to a nice start, as the San Francisco Giants rallied from a four-run deficit.
• Caught a little bit of Nick Tepesch's debut for the Texas Rangers, a 6-1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. He pitched into the eighth inning, allowing four hits, walking three and striking five, flashing a low-90s fastball, slider and a curveball that worked on this night (the Rays went 1-for-8 with four Ks in plate appearances ending with the curve). Tepesch was the surprise winner of the No. 5 slot in the rotation, but it appears he knows what he's doing out there. Todd Wills of ESPNDallas.com has the reaction from Tepesch's teammates.
• Wild 8-7 victory for the Washington Nationals over the Chicago White Sox on a hot April night in D.C. Jake Peavy and Gio Gonzalez were locked up in a 1-1 duel through four innings, but then Ian Desmond homered in the fifth and Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche homered in a four-run sixth. LaRoche later added another home run off Matt Thornton (his first two hits of the year after an 0-for-15 start). Peavy said he ran out of gas in the sixth; game-time temperature was a humid 81 degrees. Gonzalez labored through 99 pitches in his five innings, but escaped with just one run. The biggest takeaway from this game, however, is that Rafael Soriano struggled again, giving up two runs in the ninth on Alex Rios' two-run homer, although still absurdly getting credit for the save. Just something to watch. One more thing to watch: Bryce Harper is hitting .379 but hasn't drawn a walk. Let's see if pitchers can take advantage of that aggressiveness (and then see how Harper adjusts).
• Kudos to the Houston Astros for their 16-run explosion against the Seattle Mariners. They even limited their strikeouts to 10! (They went 22-for-37 when putting the ball in play.) The eight combined home runs at Safeco were the third-most ever in a game there; there were nine twice in 2004. Mariners rookie starter Brandon Maurer was terrible, giving up seven hits and a walk while retiring only two batters. As good as Maurer looked in spring training to win a rotation spot, it's a reminder that he wasn't exactly dominant last year in Double-A, striking out 117 in 137.2 innings with 48 walks. His slider has been up in the zone and batters are 7-for-12 against it.

Mark Simon wraps up the struggles of the aces on Sunday. Here are some more quick thoughts on Sunday's action.

• OK, Matt Cain. He matched a career-worst with nine runs allowed. Even stranger, they all came in one inning and at home -- where he allowed just 26 runs in 15 starts last year. I wasn't watching the game, but went back and watched that fourth inning, which Cain had entered having retired nine in a row. Here's what happened:
  -- Jon Jay, soft liner to left center, reaches second on Angel Pagan bobble.
  -- Matt Carpenter, hard line single to right.
  -- Allen Craig, sac fly to right.
  -- Carlos Beltran, four- pitch walk.
  -- Yadier Molina, groundball single into left field to load the bases.
  -- Matt Adams crushes 1-0 90-mph fastball into Triples Alley for ground-rule double.
  -- Ty Wigginton lines 0-1 slider into left for RBI hit.
  -- Pete Kozma, bloop base hit to right.
  -- Adam Wainwright pops out bunting.
  -- Jay, walks.
  -- Carpenter, soft liner to right on 3-2 pitch. Couple borderline calls went against Cain. Anyway, Jose Mijares came in and two more runs scored. Other than the Adams double, nothing was really hit that inning. But only Kozma's bloop was a true gift. Just one of those innings that can happen even to the best of 'em. The bigger first-week issue for the Giants: They scored just 15 runs in six games.
• Will Middlebrooks slugged three home runs as the Red Sox routed R.A. Dickey and the Blue Jays. This one traveled a very far distance. Middlebrooks flew out to the warning track in a bid for his fourth home run. "I was blowing on it running down the line but it didn't have enough steam," he said. And, no, I'm not worried about Dickey. It's two starts. He had a 5.71 ERA after three starts last year with the Mets.
• Besides Middlebrooks, another young AL third baseman to watch is Lonnie Chisenhall, who slugged a laser beam home run off David Price in Cleveland's 13-0 romp (Carlos Santana went 5-for-5). Price allowed only three homers to left-handed batters in 2012. Like Middlebrooks, Chisenhall's control of the strike zone will go a long ways to his future. He's yet to draw a walk (Middlebrooks has two).
• Caught a little bit of Marlins' rookie Jose Fernandez's debut. The 20-year-old looked impressive in his five innings, showing a nice out-pitch curve and striking out eight while allowing one run. The kid isn't exactly lacking in confidence, nicknames his curve The Defector (Fernandez escaped Cuba in 2008). After the game he said, "I was more nervous watching five through nine than when I was pitching. It didn't feel any different. It was more like a spring training game." Well, when you're facing Collin Cowgill, Mike Baxter and Anthony Recker, it probably did feel like a spring training game. The Mets got the last laugh, however, scoring two runs off Steve Cishek in the ninth to win 4-3.
• The White Sox wore the 1983 AL West champion throwback uniforms -- and they looked just as bad as they did 30 years ago. But Dayan Viciedo did his best Greg Luzinski impression and hit a walk-off home run off Kameron Loe in the 10th.
• The Pirates are hitting .119.
• The Astros have nine walks and 74 strikeouts in six games. My lord are they awful.

When I'm not watching baseball, you can probably find me playing Scrabble. I combine my love of these two seemingly disparate interests by tracking down those players whose names are also valid words in Scrabble. I present to you now the Scrabble-acceptability of the names on the Opening Day 40-man roster for each team.

If the player's first or last name can be found in the "bible" of organized Scrabble, the Official Tournament and Club Word List, it will be listed in CAPS here (thus, no Rzepczynski). The number after the player's name is the total Scrabble score, excluding the possibility of double and triple-letter and double and triple-word squares. The score for each player is based upon the tile distribution in a standard English Scrabble set. If the player's name is seven letters or more and a valid Scrabble word, the score increases by 50 (otherwise known as a "bingo"). If the name cannot be formed without the use of a blank (such as "BOBBY"), the score represents the actual tally (in the BOBBY example, that would be 11, not 14). The numbers next to the team name gives the team's tally of qualifying names and total points.

There appears to be a West Coast bias in the Scrabble-playability of the rosters, as the Padres and Athletics each have an MLB-best 23 players with a first and/or last name that is acceptable. The luxury tax-pinched Yankees seemingly can't buy the right letters, as they have only 12 such players, worst in the majors. The Rockies accrue the highest point total, with 523 from their 18 qualifying players, with an MLB-leading six "bingo names." The Red Sox' Franklin Morales is the "Most Scrabble-valuable Player" as both his first and last names are acceptable Scrabble words, good for 124 points (a "franklin" is a medieval English landowner of free but not noble birth). The Yankees' Joba Chamberlain possesses the longest acceptable Scrabble word on anyone's 40-man roster, as a "chamberlain" is an officer who manages the household of a sovereign or noble.

Angels (17, 366): David CARPENTER 63, Ryan BRASIER 59, Scott COUSINS 59, TOMMY FIELD 21, HANK CONGER 20, MARK LOWE 17, MIKE TROUT 15, j.b. SHUCK 14, JOHN Hester 14, JOSH Hamilton 14, Jered WEAVER 12, TOMMY Hanson 12, NICK Maronde 10, MARK Trumbo 10, JOE Blanton 10, Scott DOWNS 9, PETER Bourjos 7

Astros (16, 310): BRAD PEACOCK 74, Justin MAXWELL 69, JOSH FIELDS 24, JIMMY Paredes 19, JAKE Elmore 15, JARRED Cosart 14, JORDAN Lyles 14, JOHN Ely 14, Wesley WRIGHT 13, HECTOR Ambriz 11, Alex WHITE 11, RICK Ankiel 10, Chris CARTER 8, MATT Dominguez 6, BUD Norris 6, Chia-Jen LO 2

Athletics (23, 293): a.j. GRIFFIN 64, JERRY Blevins 15, COCO CRISP 14, JORDAN Norberto 14, JOSH Stinson 14, JOHN Jaso 14, JOSH Donaldson 14, JOSH Reddick 14, GRANT GREEN 12, Jarrod PARKER 12, JESSE Chavez 12,TOMMY Milone 12, Jemile WEEKS 12, Seth SMITH 10, Ryan COOK 10, Chris YOUNG 9, PEDRO Figueroa 8, Bartolo COLON 7, GRANT Balfour 6, Brandon MOSS 6, PAT Neshek 5, DAN Otero 4, DAN Straily 4

Blue Jays (15, 215): JOSH JOHNSON 73, JOSH THOLE 22, r.a. DICKEY 16, COLBY Rasmus 12, Brandon MORROW 11, HENRY Blanco 11, MARK Buehrle 10, CHAD Jenkins 10, MARK DeRosa 10, DREW Hutchison 8, Esmil ROGERS 7, BRAD Lincoln 7, Sergio SANTOS 6, Moises SIERRA 6, Aaron LOUP 6

Red Sox (20, 507): FRANKLIN MORALES 124, Ryan DEMPSTER 63, Allen WEBSTER 62, ALFREDO Aceves 61, JOHN LACKEY 29, BROCK HOLT 20, MIKE CARP 18, KOJI Uehara 15, Steven WRIGHT 13, DAN BUTLER 12, RUBBY De La Rosa 12, Andrew BAILEY 11, DRAKE Britton 10, MIKE Napoli 10, CLAY Buchholz 9, Andrew MILLER 8, PEDRO Ciriaco 8, Stephen DREW 8, Daniel BARD 7, WILL Middlebrooks 7

Braves (15,428): REED JOHNSON 72, Chris JOHNSON 67, David CARPENTER 63, Freddie FREEMAN 62, Jonny VENTERS 60, MIKE MINOR 17, Brandon BEACHY 16, JORDAN Walden 14, JORDAN Schafer 14, CORY Gearrin 9, CORY Rasmus 9, KRIS Medlen 8, David HALE 7, Gerald LAIRD 6, DAN Uggla 4

Brewers (21, 324): ALFREDO Figaro 61, SCOOTER Gennett 59, JOSH PRINCE 24, JOHNNY Hellweg 19, JIMMY Henderson 19, MARK ROGERS 17, JOHN Axford 14, Rickie WEEKS 12, BURKE Badenhop 11, JEAN Segura 11, NICK Bucci 10, MIKE Fiers 10, WILY Peralta 10, MARTIN Maldonado 8, Corey HART 7, Taylor GREEN 6, LOGAN Schafer 6, SANTO Manzanillo 5, ARIEL Pena 5, TOM Gorzelanny 5, MAT Gamel 5

Cardinals (18, 458): Adam WAINWRIGHT 70, MATT CARPENTER 69, Adron CHAMBERS 67, Chris CARPENTER 63, Sam FREEMAN 62, JOE KELLY 22, JAKE Westbrook 15, Jon JAY 13, VICTOR Marte 11, RANDY Choate 9, Keith BUTLER 8, Shelby MILLER 8, MARC Rzepczynski 8, LANCE Lynn 7, Jason MOTTE 7, TONY Cruz 7, MATT Adams 6, MATT Holliday 6

Cubs (12, 134): JUNIOR LAKE 21, SHAWN CAMP 21, JOSH Vitters 14, BROOKS Raley 12, HECTOR Rondon 11, Darwin BARNEY 11, Scott BAKER 11, Travis WOOD 8, BRENT Lillibridge 7, LOGAN Watkins 6, MATT Garza 6, MATT Szczur 6

Diamondbacks (22, 387): a.j. POLLOCK 65, ALFREDO Marte 61, Miguel MONTERO 59, JOSH PARR 20, HEATH BELL 17, j.j. PUTZ 15, JOSH Collmenter 14, JOSH Wilson 14, CLIFF Pennington 13, Charles BREWER 11, CHASE Anderson 10, Eric SMITH 10, JOE Paterson 10, Wil NIEVES 9, WILLIE Bloomquist 9, MARTIN Prado 8, WADE Miley 8, TONY Sipp 7, BRAD Ziegler 7, Aaron HILL 7, TONY Campana 7, MATT Reynolds 6

Dodgers (17, 226): Justin SELLERS 57, JOSH WALL 21, MATT KEMP 18, NICK PUNTO 17, JERRY Hairston 15, JOSH Beckett 14, SHAWN Tolleson 11, CHAD Billingsley 10, Stephen FIFE 10, MARK Ellis 10, SKIP Schumaker 10, Brandon LEAGUE 7, MATT Guerrier 6, MATT Magill 6, CARL Crawford 6, TED Lilly 4, DEE Gordon 4

Giants (17, 217): JAKE DUNNING 74, HUNTER PENCE 18, ANGEL PAGAN 14, MATT CAIN 12, HECTOR Sanchez 11, JEAN Machi 11, CHAD Gaudin 10, NICK Noonan 10, SANDY Rosario 9, BUSTER Posey 8, TONY Abreu 7, ANGEL Villalona 6, ROGER Kieschnick 6, Brandon BELT 6, Brett PILL 6, Joaquin ARIAS 5, DAN Runzler 4

Indians (19, 252): NICK SWISHER 73, JOE SMITH 20, RICH HILL 16, JOSH Tomlin 14, David HUFF 13, FRANK Herrmann 12, NICK Hagadone 10, Bryan SHAW 10, MIKE Aviles 10, MIKE McDade 10, MARK Reynolds 10, t.j. HOUSE 8, Blake WOOD 8, DREW Stubbs 8, Michael BOURN 7, TREY Haley 7, CORD Phelps 7, MATT Albers 6, Chen-Chang LEE 3

Mariners (15, 353): FRANKLIN Gutierrez 65, CHARLIE Furbush 62, Jesus MONTERO 59, Kendrys MORALES 59, JOSH Kinney 14, CHANCE Ruffin 13, KELLY Shoppach 12, HECTOR Noesi 11, BOBBY LaFromboise 11, JOE Saunders 10, Yoervis MEDINA 9, CARTER Capps 8, Jason BAY 8, Michael MORSE 7, TOM Wilhelmsen 5

Marlins (14, 225): Chris HATCHER 65, ALFREDO Silverio 61, BRAD HAND 15, JOHN Maine 14, MIKE Dunn 10, CHAD Qualls 10, JOE Mahoney 10, WADE LeBlanc 8, Jacob TURNER 6, Donovan SOLANO 6, LOGAN Morrison 6, TOM Koehler 5, ROB Brantly 5, DAN Jennings 4

Mets (17, 244): Zack WHEELER 63, JOHN BUCK 26, HANSEL ROBLES 17, Daniel MURPHY 16, JOSH Edgin 14, David WRIGHT 13, Zach LUTZ 13, FRANK Francisco 12, Greg BURKE 11, BOBBY Parnell 11, MIKE Baxter 10, Gonzalez GERMEN 9, KIRK Nieuwenhuis 7, Justin TURNER 6, MATT Harvey 6, Scott RICE 6, Dillon GEE 4

Nationals (17, 144): JORDAN Zimmermann 14, Bryce HARPER 11, HENRY Rodriguez 11, Ryan PERRY 10, Corey BROWN 10, CHAD Tracy 10, Nathan KARNS 9, SANDY Leon 9, Zach DUKE 9, Yunesky MAYA 9, DREW Storen 8, Jhonatan SOLANO 6, ROGER Bernadina 6, COLE Kimball 6, MATT Purke 6, Denard SPAN 6, DAN Haren 4

Orioles (13, 312): Jim JOHNSON 67, Steve JOHNSON 67, Danny VALENCIA 63, TOMMY HUNTER 21, PEDRO STROP 15, JAKE Arrieta 15, j.j. HARDY 12, Adam JONES 12, MIKE Belfiore 10, NICK Markakis 10, TROY Patton 7, l.j. HOES 7, MATT Wieters 6

Padres (23, 358): JOE THATCHER 76, Jason MARQUIS 68, JOHN BAKER 25, BRAD BRACH 19, Jaff DECKER 13, Kyle BLANKS 12, Casey KELLY 12, TOMMY Layne 12, YONDER Alonso 10, CHASE Headley 10, NICK Vincent 10, NICK Hundley 10, MARK Kotsay 10, JOE Wieland 10, CORY Luebke 9, Cody RANSOM 8, MILES Mikolas 7, BRAD Boxberger 7, WILL Venable 7, Huston STREET 6, LOGAN Forsythe 6, Anthony BASS 6, DALE Thayer 5

Phillies (21, 323): Zach COLLIER 59, Tyson GILLIES 58, JIMMY Rollins 19, CLIFF LEE 16, JAKE Diekman 15, BEN REVERE 14, JOHN Lannan 14, JOHN Mayberry 14, CHASE Utley 10, Domonic BROWN 10, MIKE Adams 10, CHAD Durbin 10, JOE Savery 10, Laynce NIX 10, Michael YOUNG 9, Delmon YOUNG 9, Ethan MARTIN 8, Mauricio ROBLES 8, Jeremy HORST 8, ENDER Inciarte 6, COLE Hamels 6

Pirates (19, 302): CHARLIE Morton 62, STARLING Marte 59, JERRY SANDS 21, JOSH Harrison 14, JOHN McDonald 14, Neil WALKER 13, Vic BLACK 13, Garrett JONES 12, Jordy MERCER 10, CHASE d'Arnaud 10, MARK Melancon 10, GABY Sanchez 10, DUKE Welker 9, Bryan MORRIS 8, Russell MARTIN 8, PEDRO Alvarez 8, Travis SNIDER 7, TONY Watson 7, TONY Sanchez 7

Rangers (22, 323): Michael KIRKMAN 62, Derek HOLLAND 61, COLBY LEWIS 20, CORY BURNS 16, David MURPHY 16, JOSH Lindblom 14, MATT WEST 13, Jeff BAKER 11, Craig GENTRY 10, MIKE Olt 10, JOE Nathan 10, JOE Ortiz 10, Justin MILLER 8, MARTIN Perez 8, Leonys MARTIN 8, ROMAN Mendez 7, LANCE Berkman 7, Wilmer FONT 7, Derek LOWE 7, TANNER Scheppers 6, NELSON Cruz 6, MATT Harrison 6

Rays (14, 208): KELLY JOHNSON 79, JAKE McGee 15, JAKE Odorizzi 15, JOSH Lueke 14, Jamey WRIGHT 13, FRANK De Los Santos 12, Chris ARCHER 11, Alex COBB 10, MIKE Montgomery 10, David PRICE 9, MATT Moore 6, MATT Joyce 6, BEN Zobrist 5, Hak-Ju LEE 3

Reds (19, 387): Aroldis CHAPMAN 66, Sean MARSHALL 63, ALFREDO Simon 61, JOSH RAVIN 22, HOMER BAILEY 21, JOHNNY Cueto 19, JACK Hannahan 17, JOEY Votto 14, Donald LUTZ 13, JAY Bruce 13, j.j. HOOVER 12, HENRY Rodriguez 11, MIKE Leake 10, NICK Masset 10, Bronson ARROYO 9, PEDRO Villarreal 8, TONY Cingrani 7, LOGAN Ondrusek 6, MAT Latos 5

Rockies (18, 523): REX BROTHERS 73, Ryan WHEELER 63, Tim WHEELER 63, CHARLIE Culberson 62, CHARLIE Blackmon 62, Jon GARLAND 59, DEXTER FOWLER 26, JOSH OUTMAN 22, JORDAN Pacheco 14, JOSH Sullivan 14, JOSH Rutledge 14, JOE Gardner 10, Eric YOUNG 9, DREW Pomeranz 8, TROY Tulowitzki 7, Chris NELSON 6, MATT Belisle 6, ROB Scahill 5

Royals (18, 417): Elliot JOHNSON 67, Greg HOLLAND 61, James SHIELDS 61, Tim COLLINS 59, JOHN LAMB 22, JOHNNY Giavotella 19, BILLY BUTLER 18, Donnie JOSEPH 18, WILL SMITH 17, KELVIN Herrera 13, Justin MARKS 11, MIKE Moustakas 10, David LOUGH 9, Aaron CROW 9, WADE Davis 8, Lorenzo CAIN 6, LOUIS Coleman 5, NOEL Arguelles 4

Tigers (16, 336): QUINTIN BERRY 76, PRINCE FIELDER 71, Omar INFANTE 60, DON KELLY 16, TORII HUNTER 14, MAX Scherzer 12, VICTOR Martinez 11, Danny WORTH 11, Duane BELOW 10, Andy DIRKS 10, Phil COKE 10, RICK Porcello 10, Darin DOWNS 9, DREW Smyly 8, MATT Tuiasosopo 6, AL Alburquerque 2

Twins (18, 224): Scott DIAMOND 61, Brian DOZIER 16, Aaron HICKS 14, JOSH Roenicke 14, JOSH Willingham 14, MIKE Pelfrey 10, JOE Mauer 10, JOE Benson 10, Kyle GIBSON 9, Jared BURTON 8, PEDRO Hernandez 8, PEDRO Florimon 8, Tim WOOD 8, DREW Butera 8, Trevor MAY 8, Josmil PINTO 7, COLE De Vries 6, GLEN Perkins 5

White Sox (20, 257): Tyler FLOWERS 63, JAKE PEAVY 28, BRENT MOREL 14, JORDAN Danks 14, JOHN Danks 14, JOSH Phegley 14, JESSE Crain 12, Nate JONES 12, HECTOR Santiago 11, HECTOR Gimenez 11, Deunte HEATH 11, Donnie VEAL 7, Dewayne WISE 7, NESTOR Molina 6, SANTOS Rodriguez 6, ANGEL Sanchez 6, MATT Lindstrom 6, MATT Thornton 6, Addison REED 5, Chris SALE 4

Yankees (12, 233): Joba CHAMBERLAIN 70, Brett MARSHALL 63, CORBAN JOSEPH 28, SHAWN Kelley 11, MARK Teixeira 10, Jayson NIX 10, Adam WARREN 9, Vernon WELLS 8, Ivan NOVA 7, Boone LOGAN 6, Melky MESA 6, BEN Francisco 5

My thanks to Ken Arneson for help with the rosters.

Diane Firstman runs the Value Over Replacement Grit blog. She previously wrote the all-Haiku season preview and the Opening Day crossword puzzle for the SweetSpot blog. She's on Twitter @dianagram.

Quick thoughts on Wednesday's games:

• Three closers blew ninth-inning leads -- Phil Coke of the Tigers, Fernando Rodney of the Rays and Chris Perez of the Indians. The Rays and Indians ended up winning their games anyway, so no harm, no foul. Of the three the one I'd most worry about is Rodney, because he was so good last year and the Rays need him to dominate once again. Coke entered with a 2-1 lead after Joaquin Benoit had walked the leadoff hitter in the ninth, and Coke gave up a little flare to right and then a two-run double to Eduardo Escobar that was tagged to deep left-center but Austin Jackson and Andy Dirks had a miscommunication, letting the ball drop. I'm not that worried yet about Detroit's closer-by-committee situation, as I still think they have enough good arms down there to make it work.
• The other closer to really worry about, however, is Milwaukee's John Axford. After giving up a game-tying homer in the opener, he pitched the ninth while down 4-3 and allowed five hits and two runs, failing to get three outs. Rockies beat writer Troy Renck reported on Twitter that a scout said hitters are seeing Axford's release point so easily that it's almost like he's tipping his pitches. I don't see how the Brewers can use him in a save situation again until he proves he can actually go through an inning without giving up a home run. (Carlos Gomez did have the play of the day, however.
• Watched Tim Lincecum's start and it wasn't pretty, although he escaped with the win despite walking seven batters in five innings. How rare is that? Tommy Hanson was the only starter to walk seven batters last year and come away with a victory. Like with Roy Halladay, we're still left wondering what lies ahead.
• Great game in Arizona that I didn't stay up for, the Diamondbacks beating the Cardinals 10-9 in 16 innings. Josh Collmenter pitched five innings to get the win, which begs the question: How many teams even have a reliever like that anymore, a guy you can leave in to soak up innings? Collmenter has spent parts of the past two seasons in the Arizona rotation. (Although I don't understand moves like this: David Hernandez, one of the best setup guys in the game, pitched just one inning and 10 pitches. In a tie game, why remove him so quickly? In a tie game, don't you have to think about the game being extended and how you want as many innings as possible from your best relievers? Especially since Arizona doesn't even play on Thursday. It worked out in the end for Kirk Gibson, but I hate that rote "remove a guy after one inning" mind-set and ignoring his pitch count.)
• Was watching Halladay pitch, so missed Matt Harvey's gem for the Mets (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 SO). I think I'll be watching some of his starts soon enough. In a postgame interview, he said he had command of his fastball to both sides of the plate, and didn't have to shake off catcher John Buck all game.
• The Astros, Marlins or Yankees: Which team will be worse? Just kidding, Yankees fans! (Sort of.)

 

Love that we've all accepted that pitch count, not Houston's lineup, is the greatest threat to this perfect game.

— Andy Behrens (@andybehrens) April 3, 2013

Back in 1962, Don Drysdale threw 163 pitches in his first start of the season. He went on to win 25 games and the Cy Young Award.

Pitch counts rule today's game, but I'm happy Ron Washington sent Yu Darvish out there for the ninth inning after 106 pitches and let the Astros break up Darvish's perfect game instead of a pitch count that was at a completely reasonable level, even for the first start of a season. And Darvish is used to high pitch counts: In his final year in Japan, he topped 120 pitches in 15 starts, going as high as 145.

Marwin Gonzalez ruined the perfect game with two outs (here's a site listing almost-perfect games), but that doesn't take away from the two lessons from this game:

1. Darvish may be better than last year.

2. This is going to happen a lot to the Astros.

Jason Collette tweeted that through eight innings Darvish had induced 27 swings-and-misses on 106 pitches, which is a sick total. Clayton Kershaw, for example, had 13 swings-and-misses during his four-hit shutout on Opening Day.

Sure, it was the Astros, but this is the Darvish everyone saw in Japan, commanding his fastball and then showing a variety of knockout offspeed stuff. He struggled at times last year with his fastball command and still managed to strike out 221 batters in 191.1 innings. If he successfully hits the corners with his heater, he's going to be even more dominant than 2012.

Of course, we have to be a little careful about reading too much into his 14-strikeout night. The Astros are bad. Carlos Pena and Chris Carter may combine for 60 home runs in the middle of the lineup but they're going to have a lot of 0-for-8 nights with five or six strikeouts. Rick Ankiel is a career .245 hitter and Justin Maxwell .220. And that's the heart of the order, at least in April.

So maybe you don't believe in Darvish's performance against a lineup many would label Triple-A level: Then watch his next game. It will be worth the time to see if Darvish is ready to move into that elite class of Cy Young contenders.

OK, here are my final AL standings. Here are the NL standings. Yes, we can all laugh at this at the end of the season. FYI: All runs scored and allowed totals add up, as do wins and losses. For wins and losses, I merely took each team's projected runs totals and ran them through the Pythagorean method of determining wins and losses. Of course, teams rarely match that total exactly, but usually do come within a few wins (last year's Orioles by a big exception).

NL EAST
Like most, I'm picking the Nationals to have a huge season and wouldn't be surprised if they crush the National League this year, especially if the Phillies and Mets aren't that good. But don't discount the Braves' ability to turn this into a two-team race.

Washington Nationals: 100-62 (761 runs scored, 584 runs allowed)
On paper, no weaknesses. Of course, injuries could set in, but the lineup depth, rotation depth and bullpen depth are all championship-quality. I'm going with 100 wins and wouldn't be surprised if they win 105.

Atlanta Braves: 93-69 (736 RS, 625 RA)
The best-case scenario here is very high: Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman go from good to scary good (Heyward is a sleeper MVP candidate), Justin Upton has an MVP-caliber season like he did with Arizona in 2011, B.J. Upton loves hitting away from Tampa and Andrelton Simmons is Ozzie Smith-like at shortstop for 150 games. The rotation is good enough, especially if Kris Medlen comes anywhere close to his dominance after moving into the rotation last year (0.97 ERA in 12 starts) and Brandon Beachy returns in midseason. And they have the best reliever in the game in Craig Kimbrel.

New York Mets: 77-85 (650 RS, 682 RA)
I'm a little higher on the Mets than most, as I like Ike Davis to have a big season, David Wright to be David Wright and Matt Harvey to show his ace potential. Look for Zack Wheeler to be up soon, giving them a nice 1-2-3 rotation of Jonathon Niese, Harvey and Wheeler.

Philadelphia Phillies: 76-86 (671 RS, 716 RA)
Obviously, the Phillies need Ryan Howard and Chase Utley to be healthy and productive, but Roy Halladay's poor spring and injury issues from 2012 are cause for alarm and bringing in guys like Michael Young and Delmon Young, on the backside of their careers, were desperation moves. It could work out with Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and a good Halladay, but the Phillies look ripe for bust potential.

Miami Marlins: 59-103 (562 RS, 758 RA)
Placido Polanco hit cleanup on Opening Day.

NL CENTRAL

Everybody likes the Reds and Cardinals with good reason, but I'm stubborn and will say that we shouldn't count out the Brewers. And as much as I'd like the Pirates to finally play .500 ball -- and make the playoffs -- I just don't see it.

Cincinnati Reds: 92-70 (725 RS, 627 RA)
The Reds have a well-balanced team, with a deep rotation that didn't get the publicity of Washington's a year ago but was just as effective, a terrific bullpen with Aroldis Chapman back at closer and a superstar hitter in Joey Votto to anchor the lineup. Defense in center field is an issue and the Reds are counting on Ryan Ludwick to hit again and Todd Frazier to avoid a sophomore slump, but the pitching staff should carry the Reds to the postseason again.

Milwaukee Brewers: 87-75 (770 RS, 714 RA)
The Brewers led the NL in runs scored a year ago and should be up there again, even if Aramis Ramirez drops off a bit. The Kyle Lohse signing helps the rotation, but the key here will be the bullpen that blew an MLB-leading 11 leads in the ninth inning (the MLB average was less than four). If John Axford returns to 2011 form, the Brewers could be back in the playoffs.

St. Louis Cardinals: 86-76 (728 RS, 676 RA)
As much as everyone loves the Cards, this was an 88-win team that lost its best pitcher from last year in Lohse. Shortstop looks like an issue and I worry about injuries to David Freese and Carlos Beltran, plus possible declines from Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina. Yes, the Cards have youth in the likes of Shelby Miller and Oscar Taveras, but those guys may not be stars right away.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 73-89 (642 RS, 712 RA)
Umm ... Jonathan Sanchez and Jeff Locke are in the rotation. How soon until top prospect Gerrit Cole gets called up?

Chicago Cubs: 70-92 (635 RS, 736 RA)
Cubs should be more competitive than last year, and fun to watch with the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro and Jeff Samardzija, but they're still going to struggle to score runs and some of the veteran starters (Scott Feldman, Matt Garza, Scott Baker) may end up as trade bait if they actually pitch effectively.

NL WEST
It should be a great three-way race in the West ... but I'm going with a bit of an upset here.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 89-73 (750 RS, 676 RA)
The team with the strangest offseason (trading Justin Upton, Chris Young and Trevor Bauer) has added depth throughout the roster, and I like their chances to return to the top of the NL West. Talent-wise, the D-backs weren't actually that far behind the Giants last year; they won 13 fewer games, but had a run differential just 23 runs worse. The rotation is five deep and they still have top prospect Tyler Skaggs in Triple-A and I like Paul Goldschmidt to have a huge year in the middle of the lineup.

San Francisco Giants: 85-77 (715 RS, 673 RA)
Everything went the Giants' way last year -- other than Tim Lincecum's poor season -- and I just don't see the same return on good luck. The rotation has no depth if somebody gets hurt and I worry about the Lincecum-Barry Zito combo at the back of the rotation. Yes, I know ... they know how to win. And maybe that will prove to be the case.

Los Angeles Dodgers: 84-78 (655 RS, 625 RS)
Similar to the Blue Jays, there is a big boom or bust potential here. A lineup with 2011 Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez would be scary, but there are also potential problems at shortstop, third base and left field. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke should be a great 1-2, so the keys will be the next three starters and Kemp staying healthy and Gonzalez proving his bat isn't slowing down.

San Diego Padres: 72-90 (651 RS, 732 RA)
The offense could actually be pretty good -- although some of that quality is masked by Petco Park -- but I have hard time believing in a team with a rotation of Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Eric Stults, Jason Marquis and Tyson Ross.

Colorado Rockies: 68-94 (735 RS, 873 RA)
The good news: Troy Tulowitzki is back and healthy. The bad news: The rotation. Jeff Francis and Jon Garland? Come on.

Playoffs
Braves over Brewers (wild card)

Nationals over Diamondbacks
Reds over Braves

Nationals over Reds

World Series
Nationals over Rays

Picking division winners and playoff teams is easy. What's harder is picking the final record for every team. So I will venture to project this year's final standings ... remember, wins and losses and runs scored and runs allowed must add up across the board. Try it. It's hard!

Joe Sheehan does this in his newsletter, so I want to credit him for the idea, although I made sure not to look at his totals. Of course, we have computer projections from various experts as well -- here are the ZiPS projections for the AL and NL we ran on ESPN.com -- but predictions are different from the projections. You should go out on a limb with a few of your predictions.

AL EAST

All five teams could certainly finish above .500, although you have to think one team will bust, like the Red Sox did a year ago. My bet is on the Yankees, but even with all the injuries on offense, if CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte all give 30-plus starts, don't be surprised to see the Yankees in the postseason.

Tampa Bay Rays: 91-71 (734 runs scored, 642 runs allowed)
I have them allowing 65 more runs that last year, but scoring 37 more, as they won't miss B.J. Upton's sub-.300 OBP all that much, Desmond Jennings will improve and Evan Longoria has a big -- and healthy -- season.

Boston Red Sox: 87-75 (762 RS, 705 RA)
Outfield defense is the new OBP and the Red Sox will be playing three center fielders in Jackie Bradley Jr., Jacoby Ellsbury and Shane Victorino. That alone will make the pitching staff much better and a deep bullpen and rebound from Jon Lester to ace-like status will put the Red Sox into wild-card contention.

Toronto Blue Jays: 85-77 (769 RS, 732 RA)
As good as the top four hitters in the lineup are -- Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion -- the Jays have some OBP issues after that unless Brett Lawrie matures. Certainly huge boom potential here if Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow stay healthy and the bullpen sorts itself out.

Baltimore Orioles: 85-77 (708 RS, 675 RA)
The Orioles may lack a true No. 1, but I like the rotation depth and bullpen and if Matt Wieters can improve a little at the plate, Manny Machado provides some pop at third base and they get anything out of second base (Brian Roberts?), maybe the O's surprise again.

New York Yankees: 78-84 (702 RS, 732 RA)
Even if Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez eventually return, I see the offense struggling to come anywhere close to the 804 runs it scored a year ago. The pitching will have to be lights out.

AL CENTRAL

Detroit Tigers: 93-69 (749 RS, 640 RA)
Fun fact: The White Sox scored 22 more runs than the Tigers last year and allowed only six more. Still, like most, I like the Tigers to have an easier time this year, with Max Scherzer having a big year, a full season from Anibal Sanchez helping the rotation, Victor Martinez's return and Torii Hunter providing a big improvement in right field.

Kansas City Royals: 80-82 (715 RS, 727 RA)
I have the Royals improving by 39 runs on offense and that could be low if Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas improve even more than I believe they will. The rotation will be better, but Ervin Santana is a big question mark and we'll see how James Shields does away from Tampa. The bullpen also needs to dominate like a year ago.

Chicago White Sox: 78-84 (699 RS, 723 RA)
Once again, we're probably underestimating the White Sox, but I worry about the age on Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn and whether Chris Sale and Jake Peavy will be as good as in 2012.

Cleveland Indians: 76-86 (723 RS, 769 RA)
I could be undervaluing the Indians here: An outfield defense of Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn and Drew Stubbs will save a lot of runs, and Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana have big-season potential and Lonnie Chisenhall is a good breakout candidate. But the rotation still looks like a problem, with Ubaldo Jimenez, Brett Myers and Scott Kazmir having a lot to prove.

Minnesota Twins: 67-95 (655 RS, 798 RA)
This may be optimistic. If the Royals and Indians improve, Twins could easily be headed for a 100-loss season.

AL WEST

The A's don't seem to have a lot of believers after their surprising division title last year, but I still like a team that is young and made some moves to improve last year's weaknesses. If the AL East beats up on each other, it's possible both wild cards could come from the West (thank you, Houston).

Oakland Athletics: 91-71 (753 RS, 654 RA)
I have the A's both scoring more and allowing more runs. Their offensive production from second, third and shortstop last year was among the worst in the majors at all three positions, so improved offense there (and an MVP-caliber season from Yoenis Cespedes) will help make up for a decline from the rotation.

Los Angeles Angels: 89-73 (792 RS, 714 RA)
The best offense in the league, especially when you factor in park effects, but the Angels' rotation needs Jered Weaver to remain healthy and there are some concerns still about the bullpen. And as good as Josh Hamilton is, remember that Torii Hunter had a terrific 2012. But if Mike Trout gets better and Albert Pujols doesn't have another homerless April ... watch out.

Seattle Mariners: 84-78 (691 RS, 660 RA)
Maybe Mike Morse and Kendrys Morales weren't the sexiest of offseason pickups, but the Mariners got nothing from left field and DH last year. Justin Smoak tore it up in spring training and if Jesus Montero and Dustin Ackley improve (don't forget the Mariners moved in the fences), the offense could be respectable for the first time in years.

Texas Rangers: 83-79 (756 RS, 737 RA)
I have the Rangers scoring 52 fewer runs -- no Hamilton, a declining Nelson Cruz, a slightly less productive Adrian Beltre -- and allowing 30 more. The Rangers' run differential dropped off 77 runs last year from 2011 and I see another decline here until they reload in 2014 with Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt.

Houston Astros: 52-110 (560 RS, 837 RA)
With Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell and a healthy Erik Bedard (good luck), maybe the Astros surprise and avoid 100 losses. But the AL West should be tougher than the NL Central, and the Astros lost 106 and 107 the past two seasons.

Playoffs
Angels over Red Sox (wild card)

Tigers over Angels
Rays over A's

Rays over Tigers