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• Paul Lukas has a piece up on Robert Griffin III becoming the first player to wear Roman numerals on his jersey. But in that piece he has some cool stuff on baseball players who wore nicknames on their jerseys. My favorite: One year, Johnnie LeMaster had been getting booed so much he wore "BOO" on the back of his jersey for a game.
• Johnette Howard has a nice piece on Rays outfielder Rich Thompson -- living the big league dream at age 33.
• Don't give up hope, Phillies fans! Bill Baer gives you some reasons for optimism.
• Catching up with Rusty Staub. The Mets have Staub bobblehead day this weekend.
• Here's an interview with new Red Sox director of player developoment Ben Crockett -- a former minor league pitcher who also happens to hold an economics degree from Harvard.
• Hey, I'm not the only one pumping up the Indians! ESPN Insider Ben Lindbergh writes why this season's Clevelanders will hold up better than the 2011 version. And FanGraphs' Dave Cameron says Cleveland is now the team to beat in the AL Central.
• Astros pitchers are getting the job done.
• Jim Tracy in a nutshell. Look, I expected the Rockies to be bad this year. But I don't think the Rockies expected to be bad. It may not be long before that leash snaps.
• ESPN Insider Kevin Goldstein explains how Scott Boras can exploit the draft this year.
• A Braves Q&A from Capitol Avenue Club.

A few quick thoughts on Lance Berkman, who has a mangled-up knee and will miss at least six to eight weeks, and what this may mean for his Hall of Fame chances.

My first thought: Other than sabermetric types who dream about walks and OBP, I don't think most baseball fans think of Berkman in Hall of Fame terms and I'm sure some of you will be insulted that I'm using Berkman and Hall of Fame in the same sentence. I could be wrong about that. I believe most baseball writers probably don't think about Berkman in those terms, although I could be wrong about that as well. For example, it's pretty clear that Berkman has been regarded by the baseball writers as a great player. He's finished third, third, fifth, fifth, seventh and seventh in various MVP votes.

What does that mean? Bill James created something called "award shares." If you're a unanimous MVP winner, that's 1.0 award shares -- you collected 100 percent of the possible maximum points; if you collected 80 percent of the possible points, that's .80 award shares. And so on. Berkman has 2.0 career award shares, which doesn't sound like a lot, but is more than Ryne Sandberg, Tony Gwynn, Gary Carter, Roberto Alomar, Rod Carew, Robin Yount, Willie McCovey, Eddie Mathews, Billy Williams, Paul Molitor and many other Hall of Famers.

So I think that at least puts him in the discussion; it doesn't make him a Hall of Famer, but it's a starting point that he merits the debate.

Berkman's power and on-base skills have made him a lethal hitter. From 2001 through 2009, he hit .301/.415/.558 while averaging 32 home runs and 107 RBIs. He hit as high as .331 in those years, topped 40 home runs twice, led the NL one year with 128 RBIs, drove in 136 runs another, made the postseason three times. Those are all things Hall of Famers voters like. During those nine years, he ranked seventh in home runs, fourth in RBIs, fourth in OBP, eighth in slugging percentage, sixth in OPS and fifth in OPS+ (behind Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez). He was, clearly, one of the elite hitters in the game.

But was nine elite years enough? Hall voters, of course, require a tough-to-dissect combination of peak value and career value. After struggling in 2010 with a knee injury, Berkman bounced back with a terrific 2011, hitting .301 with 31 homers. He had a great World Series, hitting .423, driving in five runs, scoring nine. The Cardinals won it all. In 52 career postseason games, his batting line is .317/.417/.532. I'll take that, thank you.

So where does that leave us?

• A player who was one of the elite hitters of his generation.
• Ten Hall of Fame-caliber seasons, plus a great partial season in 2000 (.297/.388/.561 in 114 games) and a not-so-great 2010.
• A terrific postseason performer.
• A player who didn't win an MVP Award but fared well in the voting.

On the negative side: Not much defensive or baserunning value, a late career start (his first big year came at 25) and relatively low career totals (right now) of 359 home runs, 1,197 RBIs and 1,836 hits.

It's interesting to compare him to his one-time teammate, Jeff Bagwell, who obviously isn't in the Hall of Fame (for some reasons we all know about) but whom many of you and in the stat community believe is a no-brainer Hall of Famer:

Bagwell: .297/.408/.540
Berkman: .296/.409/.546

Bagwell did that in 2,150 games, Berkman over 1,787 games so far, so it's not exactly the same thing. Plus Bagwell had to play his early years in the Astrodome and was a superior first baseman and baserunner. Anyway, the point is they're pretty close as hitters, which many may not realize.

I thought entering the season that Berkman needed two more good seasons similar to his 2011 campaign -- get him past 400 home runs, close to 1,500 RBIs. Yes, voters love those round numbers. The knee injury wipes out much of 2012 and puts his future in doubt. Berkman alluded to having concerns about coming back. "You certainly think, if I have to get my ACL repaired, I might be done playing," he said. "And the doctor kind of said that. He's like, 'Well, you're not a young man anymore.'

Without adding to his career counting totals, this puts Berkman on the Hall of Fame bubble. As Dave Cameron wrote on FanGraphs, "Given his numbers and his peers, my guess is that Berkman ends up with guys like (Edgar) Martinez and Todd Helton -- hitters who specialized in the wrong skills."

Given those bubble candidates, voters historically favor the long careers -- Tony Perez and Eddie Murray -- over the high-peak, shorter career guys (Martinez, Larry Walker). They did vote in Jim Rice a few years ago, but he's a bit of an outlier candidate for a lot of reasons, a guy whose case became a politicized battle of the pre-steroids generation.

What do you think? Myself, it's a close call, but I think those peak years were so good I'd vote for him. Ten years as one of the very best hitters in the game? Works for me.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Baseball’s top sluggers were in the news as Keith Law and I gathered to record Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast as one of them kept on hitting home runs Tuesday and the other didn’t get the chance.

1. Kudos to Josh Hamilton for a record-tying performance in Baltimore, but what does his excellent start to the season mean for his future contract negotiations?

2. Meanwhile in Los Angeles, another poor managerial decision -- they’re everywhere, frankly -- takes the bat out of Matt Kemp’s able hands. We talk about bad managers, contract extensions and more.

3. Do managers really listen to their front office, or is it like the scene in "Moneyball" with Art Howe and Billy Beane? Law shares some inside information.

4. Emailers have thoughts about Pittsburgh’s front office, the Cardinals’ run differential, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and the Olympics.

5. Keith’s top 100 prospects are posted and he gives insight to strengths, weaknesses and other themes to watch about the upcoming draft.

So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, and not only because we tell you Hamilton can’t repeat the feat in Baltimore. For many other reasons!

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve is a 5-foot-5 hitting machine. His strike zone is the size of an iPhone. He looks like Dustin Pedroia's little brother. Opposing pitchers may confuse him for the bat boy.

Until he steps to the plate, that is, and rings a base hit past their earlobe or stings a double into the gap or lofts a liner down the right-field line. He doesn't turn 22 for a few days, but Altuve is hitting .358. He's not a big home run threat, but he does have 11 extra-base hits. In other words, the kid can flat-out hit and I'm going to make a bold statement. He can win a batting title ... and maybe as soon as this season.

He's not good enough, you say? Hey, he hit .389 in the minors last season. Plus I like that he's showing a little more patience this season. He's not a big walker, but his walk rate in 57 games as a rookie last season was just 2.1 percent (five walks in 234 plate appearances). This year, it's up to 7.6 percent. He's dropped his percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone from 43.7 percent to 24.3 percent. So far, only Ichiro Suzuki has a higher overall contact percentage than Altuve. So when he swings, he makes contract. He's improving his pitch recognition. He's hitting .358.

He's too young or too inexperienced, you say? Well, Alex Rodriguez turned 21 years old in 1996 when he hit .358 to win the AL batting crown. Al Kaline won a batting title when he was 20. Rod Carew was 23 when he won his first title. Wade Boggs was older but in his first full season when he hit .361 in 1983 to win the AL crown. Don Mattingly's only batting championship came in his first full season. So it can be done.

It will likely take a mark in the .330 to .345 range. Six of the past seven NL batting leaders hit between .335 and .344 (the exception being Chipper Jones' .364 mark in 2008). Can Altuve do that? Am I nuts for thinking so? Am I nuts for suggesting he'll end up with a higher batting average than Albert Pujols at season's end? (See poll.)

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

What a day in baseball on Wednesday! Eric Karabell and myself could have done a two-hour Baseball Today podcast. Here are some highlights of a jam-packed show. Eric even tricked me into comparing Jose Altuve to Al Kaline and Alex Rodriguez. OK, maybe I did that to myself.

1. We discuss Jered Weaver's no-hitter, of course, and wonder how many more no-hitters we'll see this season.

2. We discuss that wild, improbable game in Atlanta between the Phillies and Braves. Are there reasons to be concerned about Roy Halladay?

3. That's only the tip of the iceberg of a crazy night -- bad calls, Jason Giambi's walk-off homer, Jake Arrieta dominating the Yankees and more.

4. We answer some emails about Mat Gamel's injury and other stuff.

5. Finally, we look ahead to Thursday's action and I declare that Jose Altuve is a batting title contender.

Check it all out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, and don't miss Friday's show with Mark Simon and awesome guests Jayson Stark and Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey.

First base: That’s where Allen Craig was playing for the Cardinals on Tuesday night, not just giving the Birds back the ninth bat they’ve missed, but more importantly giving them an immediate substitute for the still-injured Lance Berkman. Much like fellow postseason hero David Freese, Craig showed he also hasn’t missed a beat from last October, pelting a pair of singles in his first game back, and contributing to the Cardinals’ bit of 10-7 stompery over the reliably feeble Pirates.

Second base: Jarrod Parker’s second start for the Oakland A’s was perhaps even better than his first against the White Sox last week. Parker shut down the Red Sox in a 5-3 win, going slightly deeper into the game (two batters faced and one out), throwing just 98 pitches while delivering a 6.2-4-1-1-2-4 line with no home runs. So while Trevor Cahill was doing just fine mowing down Nationals in last night’s D-backs spoiler of Bryce Harper’s home debut, the primary prospect he was acquired with was giving Athletics fans a reason to forget the past and embrace something more tangible than a future in San Jose.

Third base: As the Book of Armaments in Monty Python’s Holy Grail reminds us, three is the number that shall be counted before big ’splosions go off, and that’s pretty much what Jed Lowrie did for the Astros on Tuesday night, plating a pair with his third home run of the season while also drawing three walks. In the two weeks-plus since his return from the DL, Lowrie has been the multifaceted offensive terror that GM Jeff Luhnow’s crew envisioned when they acquired him from the Red Sox. So just a month into his Astros career, you can say they’ve already gotten the full Lowrie experience: A trip to the DL, power, patience, and enough good work afield to make you think his staying at shortstop makes sense after all.

Home plate: The tweet of Tuesday goes to Orioles reliever Darren O’Day, who was partially responsible for the numerical feat he chose to celebrate social mediatically:

Congrats to Buck for his 1000th victory. That's a lot of W's. Like 20 a year for 50 years!

— Darren O'Day (@DODay56) May 2, 2012

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

I tweeted a note Thursday morning from our Stats & Information department: Only two walk-off home runs had been hit so far (by Alex Aliva and Todd Helton), the fewest this late in a season since 1982.

Sure enough, we got another one later in the day when Tampa Bay's Brandon Allen golfed a low fastball from Jordan Walden over the wall in right-center for a dramatic two-run blast to give the Rays a 4-3 victory over the Angels, completing a series sweep over the reeling Albert Pujols & Co.

In typical Joe Maddon fashion, he pulled the right strings in sending Allen up to hit for Jose Molina. Claimed off waivers last week from the A's, Allen had just one previous plate appearance with Tampa, drawing a key bases-loaded walk the night before. So he hadn't really swung the bat since April 7. He hadn't delivered a hit all season, since he went 0-for-7 with five strikeouts with Oakland. Walden tried to blow him away with five straight fastballs, but Allen crushed a 2-2, 97-mph four-seamer deep into the stands, getting up and personal with his teammates during the ensuing home-plate celebration.

Allen is a fringe major leaguer, a guy with big-time power but who has struggled to make contact in his brief trials with Arizona and Oakland. In many ways, it was just another baseball game, a mid-April affair played on an afternoon when most of the sports world was focused on the NFL draft. But, you know, this game could end up being one of the best moments of Allen's big league career, which makes it pretty neat in my book.

"Baseball is luck. It's a lot of luck. You just do what you can to prepare for it," Allen said after the game. "I just got in there and stayed within myself."

Maddon had told Allen to be ready when the Rays signed him. "To do this, to basically win two games for us two nights in a row, is pretty special," Maddon said.

The Rays are 12-7, which isn't necessarily surprising since many picked them to make the playoffs. But what is surprising is they've done this amid a tough April schedule and they've done it with a lot of offense, supposedly the team's weakness.

Currently fourth in the AL in runs scored, Tampa's hitting attack looks legitimate. Evan Longoria is hitting .309 with a .427 on-base percentage. Matt Joyce is proving last season's All-Star appearance wasn't a fluke with a .322/.394/.644 start. Carlos Pena is hitting .284 and drawing walks. Luke Scott is providing power from the DH slot. Add in Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings and B.J. Upton and you get the feeling the Rays may score some runs.

And the pitching ... Well, you get the feeling the pitching hasn't even gotten their groove on yet.

Here are three more big surprises after three weeks.

1. Lance Lynn and Kyle Lohse.
The Cardinals have withstood Chris Carpenter's injury and Adam Wainwright's slow start since these two guys have dominated. Lynn replaced Carpenter and, yes, he's faced the Cubs twice and the Pirates in three of his four starts. But he has allowed one run in each start and has an impressive 24/6 SO/BB ratio. Remember, Lynn was a first-round supplemental pick and a decent prospect coming up through the minors before excelling in the bullpen last season as a rookie. Actually, he's still a rookie. He has a good arm, he is a 6-foot-5 beast on the mound and there is a good chance he's a solid No. 3 starter. As for Lohse, I'll be honest: I didn't expect him to repeat last season's 3.39 ERA. He has kept his changeup down in the zone so far and hasn't allowed a home run, leading to a 0.99 ERA. Both have a chance of being middle-of-the-rotation starters ... or better, certainly more than the back-of-the-rotation guys I projected them as.

2. Jose Altuve
This little guy can rake. He's off to a .377 start, which is surprising enough, but the biggest surprise is the mature approach the 5-foot-5 21-year-old has shown at the plate. After hitting .389 between Class A and Double-A last season, the Astros called him in July. While he hit a respectable .276, he drew just five walks in 234 plate appearances, leading to concerns he would be exposed this season. But he has already drawn seven walks, and after swinging at 41 percent of pitches outside the strike zone as a rookie, that has dropped to 25 percent this season. He's a key reason the Astros are third in the NL in runs scored and playing respectable baseball -- they're 7-12 but have outscored their opponents.

3. Pirates pitching
OK, the Pirates are hitting .221 with a .269 OBP. But they're 8-10 behind a pitching staff that has allowed less than three runs per game. The Pirates have neither scored nor allowed more than five runs in a game. Can they keep it up? Even though the starters have a 2.59 ERA, I'm a little skeptical. The Pirates' 6.54 K's per nine ranks 25th in the majors. Their .256 BABIP allowed is third-best. Those two numbers are a bit at odds with each other. It should be noted we saw a similar result last year as the Pirates had a good run in the first half before collapsing. Still, give credit to the pitchers (and defense) for an amazing run of games.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

You know when you shake hands with a former catcher. It’s like having an overstuffed bag of walnuts put in your palm and then having it squeeze the circulation out of your mitts. It’s the fingers, of course, broken so often that they seem as though somebody had stomped out a tango on each and every knuckle. The toll on each catcher’s hands, not to mention his knees, is tremendous. The workload and the toll it takes seems almost cruelly balanced against the near-absence of glory at a position where, often as not, you get to take the statistical rap for something gone amiss because of a pitcher’s errant throw home or his poor move to first base. You admire catchers, even if you wouldn’t want to be one.

But even among that small fraternity of catchers hardy enough to make it to the majors and stick around and take the daily beating that regular receiving requires, there are those very few who stand apart because of their ability to endure. It’s part of the reason why we mourn Gary Carter (fourth all-time in games caught) now, beyond The Kid’s natural ebullience. And it’s why we respect the catchers who didn’t last that long because they hit well at the position or provided “above replacement value,” but who lasted that long because they could catch: Bob Boone and Brad Ausmus and Jim Sundberg. Easy guys to root for, if long-suffering.

None of that matches the magnitude of what Pudge Rodriguez did during his career, the value he delivered, the greatness that was manifest from his first day behind the plate in the major leagues, all the way back in 1991 as a 19-year-old catching his first game for the Texas Rangers as the other half of a battery with Kevin Brown.

It might surprise in today’s all-media environment in which prospects get to spring with few surprises for us, but even back then, thanks to Baseball America and the like, the legend of how good Ivan Rodriguez was behind the plate was spreading. From the squat behind the plate he was as nimble as a cat despite the gear that goes with the trade of framing and catching pitches day after day, and throwing better than anyone ever has as an everyday regular, before, since, and likely ever.

It’s well he’s calling it quits as a Ranger, because nothing else would have made sense. In the ’90s he was one of those players worth the price of admission all by himself, like Jim Abbott on the mound or Frank Thomas digging in at the batter's box or even Ken Caminiti’s kamikaze glove work at third. For 12 years in Texas, he was as close to a signature star as the franchise had ever had to that point, outshining even sluggers Rafael Pameiro and Juan Gonzalez in that performance-enhanced era.

The great novelist F. Scott Fitzgerald said that, “There are no second acts in American lives,” and maybe there’s something to that, but it certainly wasn’t true about Pudge Rodriguez in his career. After a dozen seasons in Texas, the man moved on to the Marlins to help lead their other, less notorious “bought” World Series in 2003, a single-season temp who was just getting started at proving he had plenty left in the tank on the back slope of his career. He was a key player on the 2006 Tigers team that upset a few apple carts by winning an American League pennant.

That sort of second wind propelled him to the elder statesman stints that seem to reflect the end of more than a few great catchers’ careers. After a pre-free agency trade to the Yankees, he’d move from Houston to Texas to Washington, an extended victory lap on a career that had seen its share of winning.

There was a special kind of agony associated with watching Pudge at the end of his career that took me back to watching the previous "Pudge," Carlton Fisk, catching games for the White Sox at the end of his career, as he set the games caught record that had been, briefly, Boone’s. As catchers, both Pudges had probably taken more pounding behind the plate than anyone else to don a uniform, let alone take up the tools of ignorance.

At the end, there was something both poetic and sad about the contrast between the tremendous young catchers who stood ready to replace them -- Ron Karkovice with the White Sox and Wilson Ramos with the Nats -- and their own diminished skills. Draw whatever broad-strokes image about the passage of time in baseball that you care for, but the handoff from an all-time great to a ready kid with skills is the epitome of following teams and players over time. It’s why we ache for the ones who have to let go, and root for the ones ready to step in. It’s a big part of why we watch.

There’s nothing poetic or sad about watching Rodriguez choose to walk away now, though. His greatness is a matter of record. The 14 All-Star appearances, the 13 Gold Gloves, the MVP award or the ring, all of it was his due because he could do what no one else could, catching longer than anyone else has or will, better than anyone ever has, or will. Here’s looking forward to seeing Pudge in Cooperstown on the first ballot. It, like so much else, is what he has earned.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

With initial active rosters picked, we’ve seen a few of the same long-term trends perpetuate themselves in terms of roster set-up. Despite the less crowded April schedule that might seem to make carrying seven relievers, let alone eight, unnecessary, 23 of 30 teams went with the now-standard 13-12 split between position players and pitchers.

If you’re one of those people who loved the more aggressive brand of in-game management from the ’70s and ’80s, with managers reaching into deeper, well-stocked benches to pinch-hit for defensive specialists or pinch-run for basepath slugs, you might be ready to rail against the seven-man bullpen. But you can do that for only so long before you have to come to the grudging concession that it’s here to stay like other unpleasantries like interleague games, 10 playoff teams per season or Simon Cowell.

The extent to which conformity to the 13-12 is a fact of life is reflected in who most of the odd ducks were. The old school 14-11 spread -- "old" if you can hardly remember the ’90s -- is being used by just five teams: the Tigers, Angels, Athletics, Pirates and Rockies. If you think this means any one of their managers want to create more opportunities in their lineups or any of their general managers have elected to let them, guess again. All five clubs are just exploiting the lighter schedule and not carrying their preferred fifth starter of the moment. Give them a week or so, and they’ll more than likely be down at 13-12.

That leaves two teams who weren’t at 13-12 or 14-11: The Astros and Red Sox, who have both gone with eight-man bullpens. In April. That’s while the Sox get to play 12 games in the first 16 days of the season, while the Astros play just six in their first nine days. Even allowing for the questions both teams have about their rotations, that’s a lot of guys standing around in the bullpen instead of the dugout, and the body account alone might seem to be a logistical challenge for Bobby Valentine in Boston and Brad Mills in Houston. Pitchers need work to stay sharp, the same as any other kind of ballplayer, and giving guys reliable time on the mound might not wind up being the highest priority for the two skippers.

The Astros have the excuse of carrying a Rule 5 pick, hard-throwing Rhiner Cruz from the Mets’ organization (as well as shortstop Marwin Gonzalez from the Cubs). That’s a straightforward reflection of new GM Jeff Luhnow’s priority: adding talent to an organization short on it, by whatever means necessary.

But the Red Sox situation is obviously a reflection of the injury stack they’ve endured. Closer Andrew Bailey out for months, reliever Bobby Jenks still hurt, and lefties Andrew Miller and Rich Hill are also on the shelf. To some extent, the early weeks might represent a form of live-fire extended spring training, as Valentine gets to sift through what he has left to pick his seven relief keepers once left fielder Carl Crawford is ready to come off the DL.

From among the opening rosters, here are a few situations that should be interesting to follow to see how they work out in terms of playing time.

• A’s first base: Daric Barton vs. Kila Ka’aihue vs. Brandon Allen vs. Chris Carter is going to start playing out to some sort of conclusion. Carter’s in Sacramento, DHing and raking, but he’s not an immediate concern. Barton could come back from the DL as soon as Monday. Putting Allen in against Felix Hernandez for his two starts while the Kila Monster drew Jason Vargas in his two seems like no way to make an informed decision about which one of them should alternate with Barton while he proves he can play with his bum shoulder.
• Twins infield: Seeing former first-round flop Sean Burroughs resuscitate his career is worth a warm fuzzy, especially if you think Ron Gardenhire should spot the veteran’s lefty bat at the hot corner for Danny Valencia now and again. Now that we’re 1200 at-bats into Valencia’s career, his .655 career OPS vs. right-handers looks like the sort of handicap to a lineup that should consign him to part-time play. But rather than invest too much hope in what Burroughs might do, keep an eye on what Luke Hughes and Trevor Plouffe get to do with undefined utility roles.
• The Pirates: Quite simply, they’ve got a bunch of players who could be valuable, here and into the future or now and then on a contender in August. Nobody gets hardware for notching holds, but Evan Meek and Juan Cruz make for a potentially outstanding pair of set-up men for Joel Hanrahan. Utilityman Yamaico Navarro’s a 24-year-old switch-hitter with career minor league .778 OPS; with the athleticism that kept him in the middle infield most of the time, he might be just an injury (or a Pedro Alvarez slump) away from catching a break.
• Cub platoons: New managers are always interesting to follow, to see what they do with what they’ve got. Dale Sveum’s decision to platoon David DeJesus and Reed Johnson in the leadoff slot from right field is interesting, but his decision to give journeyman Joe Mather a shot at platooning with Ian Stewart at third might prove inspired. Add in the potential for a Bryan LaHair-Jeff Baker platoon at first base (at least until Anthony Rizzo is ready), and you’ve got busy box scores if nothing else.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

"Rocky III"'s Clubber Lang was correct in answering "pain" when asked for a pre-fight prediction. Baseball predictions can be painful to sort through, painful to hear and are generally an enormous pain in the neck. Fans look for them, solicit them, overreact to them and, worst of all, horde them like markers later to be claimed at some casino cage of emotional torture and guilt. What is meant to be a harmless exercise somehow gets turned into an angry referendum on imagined media bias or a credibility report card. What fans don't seem to understand is this: Few people dislike predictions more than those who are expected to make them.

I write this as the author of perhaps the worst prediction in recorded history. Yes, I tabbed the Astros to win the NL Central last season, a pick that became to predictions what Disco Demolition Night was to ballpark promotional events. Yeah, I got blown up like a stack of KC & the Sunshine Band records. I wasn't nuts. Actually, I was trying to be a standup guy but like Disco Demolition Night, it blew up in my face. I had written a piece for this website in September of 2010 and felt obligated to remain consistent six months later despite the realization that a moment of bold optimism had deteriorated into a sinking ship. I naively thought, "Well what the heck, it's just a harmless predictions list anyway, right?" BOOM!!!! Here's a link.

In every season since 1995 at least one team that finished with a losing record has made the playoffs the following season, with the lone exception being 2005. You can reserve a bit of fun for yourself and try and nail that long-shot pick or you can treat your annual predictions like the SATs. Either approach is fine and in my book the best landing spot is likely somewhere in between. Yet when the predictions come out fans go after them with the grim determination of Clarence Beeks trying to swipe the crop report on oranges in "Trading Places." I've had discussions with many experts in recent weeks about this and discovered one common complaint: Why do fans take these preseason predictions soooooooo seriously?

"Baseball is the greatest game in the world and anybody who actually thinks he knows what's going to happen before the season starts is delusional," said ESPN's Tim Kurkjian. Kurkjian just spent six sweeks on the road and visited the spring training camps of all 30 teams, meaning he was in camp each day -- all day long -- talking to players, coaches, managers and beat writers. Based on that, he should be the most qualified man in America to make 2012 postseason predictions. Yet Kurkjian admitted these picks are nothing more than pure guesswork.

"When people come to you and say, 'Gosh you got your predictions wrong this year,' listen, I've never apologized for that because when these so-called experts get all of our predictions wrong it speaks again to how great the game is that we didn't have it right," he said. "Nobody has it right and nobody ever gets it right completely. That's why I dislike predictions because people think you're an idiot when you get it wrong but you're not an idiot. It just shows you how great the game is when you get it wrong."

The difficulty in predicting 2012 postseason teams is clear: There are divisions in which teams could finish anywhere from first to fourth. You can make a legitimate case for three different teams to win the AL East. There are four teams expected to contend for the NL East, at least three in the NL Central and if you don't think the AL West is essentially a coin flip between the Rangers and Angels then maybe you're the one who doesn't get it.

It's impossible to know yet whether the Rays will hit enough to outdistance the Red Sox and Yankees or if the Phillies can limp through the first few months of the season without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Will Buster Posey recover and lead the Giants? Did the Cardinals do enough to replace Albert Pujols? Tell me Miami will win 93 games this season and I'll believe you. You could also make a convincing case that the Marlins will win just 72 games again.

Here's the critical part and file it under that "It's not the destination but the journey" concept. This abstract presence of the unfolding baseball season -- the realization that the end result is for now hidden but will gradually reveal itself only in brief but glorious flashes over the course of the next seven months -- is this beautiful game's most graceful commodity. It's the sport that is measured not by a clock but a calendar in our drive-thru, RedZone channel culture and nothing in sports beats it ... nothing. "We actually know what's going to happen in the NBA before it starts," Kurkjian said. "The Bulls, the Heat, they're going to play in the finals in that conference. We never know in baseball."

That's exactly it. Nobody knows and a prediction should never be construed as a claim to know. I talk to players, ex-players, writers, broadcasters and columnists, all bright colleagues for whom I have enormous respect and when I ask, "Who you picking for this division?" I get different answers from all of them, as you'll see with today's annual predictions list release. Here on April 4, there really are almost no wrong answers. Except, maybe the Astros.

Steve Berthiaume hosts Baseball Tonight on ESPN. Follow him on Twitter @SBerthiaumeESPN.

I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.

1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?

2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.

3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.

4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.

5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.

6. Yu Darvish.

7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.

8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.

9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?

10. Jose Canseco's tweets.

11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.

12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.

13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.

14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.

15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:

A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.

Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.

18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)

19. Defensive runs saved!

Your leaders by position in 2011:

C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward

20. The Sandman.

21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.

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Eric Karabell is back to help preview the NL Central. We disagree on which team will win the division. And while I said in the video that I think the Cardinals will win the wild card, I take that back. I've run some numbers since we taped this and now I'm not so sure. We're allowed to change our minds before Opening Day, right?

The Blue Jays have scorched their opponents in spring training, winning 23 of 29 games and outscoring their opponents by 77 runs. Jayson Stark has a story up suggesting you shouldn't ignore the Jays, pointing out that in the past 20 years only two other teams have won 75 percent of their games in spring training -- the 1997 Marlins (who won the World Series) and the 2009 Angels (who won 97 games and reached the ALCS).

Can we read anything into a hot spring training at a team level? After all, while we're constantly told that "spring training doesn't mean anything," there's also a lot of cyberspace real estate being spent on spring training updates, reports, analysis and Twitter commentary that suggests it has to mean something.

Let's check back on 10 years of spring training standings to see if we can arrive at any broad conclusions. We'll begin with the team that had the best spring training record each season:


Definitely some correlation here, although last year's Royals are a good reminder that a hot spring doesn't always lead to a successful regular season. If you remember, the Royals pounded the ball all spring -- Melky Cabrera hit .468, Kila Ka'aihue may have been the best hitter in spring training with a .397 average and seven home runs, Alicides Escobar hit five home runs, Mike Aviles hit .357.

What about the teams that ended up with the majors' best regular-season record? Here's how they did:


There's clearly a strong correlation here -- 13 of the 14 teams listed had a winning record in spring training. For what it's worth, here are possible playoff contenders who have had a bad spring: Philadelphia (12-16), Tampa Bay (9-16), Texas (12-17), Atlanta (10-17) and Cleveland (7-21).

I'm not sure we can place too much emphasis on those records, however. Here are poor spring training records for some teams that made the postseason in recent years:

2011 Diamondbacks: 12-25
2011 Rangers: 13-16
2010 Rangers: 10-19
2009 Dodgers: 15-22
2009 Phillies: 13-19
2008 Phillies: 12-18
2008 Red Sox: 8-13
2007 Phillies: 11-18

So as bad as Cleveland or Tampa Bay has looked, we can't write them off yet. (Although I'd like to reconsider my idea of picking Cleveland as an upset special to win the AL Central.)

On a related tangent, how did the majors' worst team fare during spring training?


Well, maybe no surprises here. Only one of worst teams managed to even finish .500. The Astros, everyone's pick as the worst team in 2012, are 14-16. The Pirates are 9-18. But the Twins, Mariners, Padres and A's all have winning spring records, which doesn't mean those teams will finish above .500 but at least suggests they won't be the worst team in baseball.

Finally, let's look at a surprise team from each season:


If the Blue Jays do contend for a playoff spot, they won't exactly fit the definition of a surprise team since they won 81 games in 2011 and 85 in 2010. They'd have to win in the upper 90s to have a win increase that matches the teams on this list. Though there is some correlation here to playing well in spring training, last year's Diamondbacks gave no indication they'd turn into a 90-win club.

So there you go, Pirates fans ... maybe there is still hope.

• ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski asks: Is there another Jose Bautista lingering near the bottom of the ESPN 500 list? Dan throws out some interesting names, including Travis Snider and Pedro Alvarez, although both of them were former first-round picks and one-time top prospects. Of course, what makes any Bautista comparison difficult is that he hasn't just had a couple of nice seasons out of nowhere; he's had two seasons that made him one of the best players in baseball. There may be a more systematic way of doing this: Check players who were (A) never top prospects; (B) had some time in the majors before blossoming into an MVP candidate. I have to think Bautista is fairly unique in this regard. Worth looking at during some down time.
• Tristan Cockcroft has a list of players he's not excited about. Tristan is writing for a fantasy baseball audience, but I like his support evidence. Names such as Adam Wainwright and Dee Gordon will provide some debate.
• Eric Karabell has updated his fantasy top 100. He's sticking with Ryan Braun at No. 1.
• One more link from our fantasy department: AJ Mass looks at the Rays and whether the hype surrounding Matt Moore is justified.
• Mets Today has a roundup of all the fallout from the court decision regarding the Mets.
• Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman has a piece on ESPNLosAngeles.com on the Clayton Kershaw-Tim Lincecum rivalry.
• How do the Brewers replace Prince Fielder? In Part 1 of a 2012 preview, Disciples of Uecker examines whether Aramis Ramirez will come close to Fielder's 2011 production.
• Harper Gordek is worried about a Nationals lineup that may open up with Rick Ankiel hitting fifth. Can the pitching staff prevent enough runs to make the Nationals contenders?
• Michael Baumann on Chase Utley, Freddy Galvis and panic (or lack of it) in Philly.
• Brenden Lowery breaks down Carlos Santana and his approach from both sides of the plate in 2011. With heat maps!
• Craig Brown examines the Royals trade in which they acquired catcher Humberto Quintero to fill in for the injured Salvador Perez and outfielder Jason Bourgeois. If the word "train wreck" is used as descriptive medicine, it may not be a cure.
• Here's what the Red Sox's 25-man roster may look like.
• One thing the Twins have: Guys who can play center field. With Denard Span, Ben Revere, Joe Benson and prospect Aaron Hicks, should the Twins consider dealing from their surplus?
• Chris Quick with an interesting study on Giants infielder Emmanuel Burriss: With his lack of power what are the odds he can be of some value at the plate?
• Will first base be a problem for the Cardinals?
• Ramon Santiago for Tigers MVP!
• Finally, a fun list of the top 10 final seasons, in honor of Will Clark's 2000.

A bit of sarcasm was on display for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, as Keith Law and I had a little fun talking about the great game of baseball!

1. KLaw discusses what he saw from Texas Rangers right-hander Neftali Feliz on Tuesday. Feliz lasted three innings before shoulder soreness forced his exit.

2. Meanwhile, I was able to observe Boston Red Sox right-hander Daniel Bard trying to avoid walks on Tuesday. Another converted reliever, KLaw shares thoughts on how this situation will end up.

3. Ryan Braun isn’t hitting this spring, and obviously the rumor mongers can’t get enough. Of course, Keith and I tell you the truth about Braun.

4. Big trade for the Royals! Big trade! OK, so acquiring Humberto Quintero and Jason Bourgeois doesn’t guarantee the pennant, but we discuss their impact, and the Royals' closing situation.

5. Emails and tweets galore! Among the topics are Mike Matheny’s living arrangements, the awful Houston Astros, sixth starters and Dusty versus Walt in Cincy.

So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, which includes a funny rant by Mr. Law. Don’t miss it.