SweetSpot: Mark Simon

Leaderboard of week: Bare hands and flips

May, 7, 2012
May 7
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Arizona Diamondbacks infielder Willie Bloomquist had the longest-reigning Web Gem of the season so far, a from-his-stomach flip to second base to get a force play on a ground ball up the middle on April 28 against the Marlins.

That lasted six days as the "Best of the Best" Web Gem and was named the Sports Science Play of the Week. It also inspired us to look up something that we’ve asked to have video-tracked this season. There are many different ways to get an out in baseball. We’ve arranged with Baseball Info Solutions to track players who make three different types of plays. They are:

1. The barehand -- in which a fielder does not use his glove, but manages to get an out.

2. The glove flip -- in which a fielder flips the ball to a teammate using his glove, rather than his ungloved hand.

3. The throw-from-knees -- which we actually made sure covered any throw in which the fielder was not upright, a la Bloomquist.

Let’s take a snapshot look at the leaders for each, all entering Sunday's games.
  • Marlins catcher John Buck leads the majors in successful barehand plays with 10. Most of the players atop this leaderboard are catchers, who are apt to grab bunts in front of the plate without their glove.
  • The leader in barehands among non-catchers is Braves third baseman Chipper Jones with seven. No one else in baseball had more than four.
  • There had been 20 glove flips in the majors in 2012. Four players were successful multiple times, led by Alexi Casilla and Alex Gonzalez with three each.
  • Lastly, the player with the most throws from his knees, stomach, or any other part of the body, is Phillies rookie second baseman Freddy Galvis with four.

April's top defender: Jerry Hairston Jr.

May, 2, 2012
May 2
10:48
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Benny Sieu/US PresswireJerry Hairston Jr. didn't mind getting a little dirt on his uniform to make good defensive plays in April.

Major League Baseball rewards its best offensive players and its top pitchers with Player of the Month Awards. But it does not salute a Defensive Player of the Month with the same level of reverence.

We’re here to fill that void, with the help of the folks from Baseball Info Solutions (BIS). BIS has a team of video trackers who watch every play of every game, charting where balls are hit, which ones are turned into outs and which are not, and categorizing plays into approximately 30 groups of Good Fielding Plays and 50 groups of Defensive Misplays.

BIS data is also used in the computation of a stat called Defensive Runs Saved, which measures value relative to others at the same position. How Runs Saved are calculated is explained in the chart on the right.

We came up with a list of nominees using this data and our Web Gem tracking (which allows us to measure "Great Fielding Plays"), then had a 10-person panel cast their votes. The panel came from our Stats & Information crew, writers Dave Schoenfield and Jayson Stark and ESPN baseball analyst Chris Singleton.

Our winner for April is an unlikely selection in that he’s not the first person that comes to mind when you think of defensive standouts -- Los Angeles Dodgers utilityman Jerry Hairston Jr.

Hairston was able to make the good play and the great play. He finished April tied with Ryan Zimmerman for the major league lead with four Web Gems (including the No. 1 Gem on consecutive nights). He was credited with one Defensive Run Saved at second base, one at third base and two in left field.

Hairston finished April with a Good Play/Misplay tally of 11 to 1 in only 15 games in his first month with the Dodgers.

His highlight-reel play came on April 19 against the Milwaukee Brewers while playing third base, when he robbed Alex Gonzalez of the game-tying hit in the eighth inning with a diving stop and throw from his knees on a groundball down the line.

The next day, he missed on a similar diving attempt against Jose Altuve of the Astros, but then sprinted into foul territory and threw a strike to second base to nail Altuve's attempt at an extra-base hit.

Hairston got six of our 10 first-place votes, and even someone who voted him second-best was quite impressed. "No matter where you put him on the field, he posseses the ability to make a dynamic play," Singleton said. "His value as a utility player is as high as anyone on the defensive side."

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly agreed, saying, "Jerry's been great from the standpoint of wherever we put him, he's made some unbelievable plays."

Alex Gordon, Royals
Though Gordon didn’t hit at the level he did in 2011, his advanced defensive stats were of Gold Glove caliber, and that earned him runner-up status for April.

Gordon had seven Defensive Runs Saved in left field for April, and finished with a 9 to 1 tally in Good Plays/Misplays, including a home run robbery on Danny Valencia.

Gordon’s rating was high partly because of the component that measures the deterrent value of one’s throwing arm. There were 18 situations in which Gordon fielded a ball, and a baserunner had a chance to advance an extra base (score on a sacrifice fly, go first to third on a single, etc). He only had one assist, but it was a nifty one, nailing Albert Pujols at the plate. But Gordon only allowed the runner to advance three times, thus netting a deterrent rate worth two runs.

"You can never truly appreciate with the naked eye just how well Gordon takes routes to the ball on base hits," Singleton said. "It gets overlooked, but it’s huge when you’re an outfielder and can shut the running game down like a catcher does."

Freddy Galvis, Phillies
If there was an award for Defensive Rookie of the Month, Galvis would edge out Kirk Nieuwenhuis of the Mets for top honors. He finished with a Good Play Misplay tally of 14 to 3 and tallied three Defensive Runs Saved. He won No. 1 Web Gem honors twice, good enough to finish third in our voting.

Jamey Carroll, Twins
Carroll finished with two Defensive Runs Saved, but was impressive in the way in which he made plays. His 16 Good Fielding Plays were the most among shortstops. He made only two Misplays all month, and his 8 to 1 ratio was among the best for infielders.

Albert Pujols, Angels
Though Pujols struggled offensively, he didn’t let his power outage impact his defense.

Pujols tied with Adrian Gonzalez for the most Defensive Runs Saved among first basemen with three, and had a Good Play/Misplay ratio of 14 to 2. Pujols was rewarded both for his ability to handle difficult throws (for which he was credited with nine Good Fielding Plays), and his ability to turn batted balls into outs. One of the few bright spots for the Angels in April was that they allowed a .197 batting average on groundballs, fourth-best in the American League, behind the Indians, Athletics and Blue Jays.

Also considered: Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals 3B), Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks 1B), Josh Hamilton (Rangers OF), Aaron Hill (Diamondbacks 2B), and Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox 2B).

Greg Holland has pitches to be KC's closer

March, 20, 2012
Mar 20
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The primary location of sliders thrown by Greg Holland in 2011.
His fastball/slider/splitter combo was among the most effective in baseball.
Click here to create your own Holland heat maps

With Joakim Soria going down with an elbow injury, it’s likely the Kansas City Royals will give the first opportunity at their closing role to former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton, who was signed as a free agent.

But there is another candidate in the Kansas City bullpen worthy of consideration.

Righty Greg Holland may not get much attention outside of those who follow the American League Central closely, but in 2011 he was that division’s version of what David Robertson provided the Yankees.

Holland had a 1.80 ERA and an 0.93 WHIP in 60 innings for the Royals last season. Opponents had a .521 OPS against him, second-best in the AL to Robertson among those who threw at least 50 innings.

What made Holland comparable to some of baseball's best relievers was his ability to strike out left-handed hitters.

Holland struck out 38 of the 106 left-handed hitters he faced. The only AL right-handed reliever to have a higher percentage of strikeouts against lefties was Robertson. The average left-hander hit .185 against a right-handed pitcher in a two-strike count last season. Against Holland, they were 4-for-60 (.067).

How did he do it?

Holland’s effectiveness comes from the combination of his 95-mph fastball, a slider and a split-fingered fastball. His delivery is deliberate, but his pitches are nasty. Check out this string of highlights from mid-2011 when he struck out six Rays in three innings.

Holland threw 102 splitters in 2011 (about half coming with two strikes), spotting it most frequently just below the lowest part of the strike zone. As ESPN analyst Orel Hershiser said in Wednesday’s spring telecast, "The key for a pitcher is throwing a ball that looks like a strike." The splitter netted Holland 26 outs, with only two hits allowed.

The slider served as Holland’s strikeout pitch. He threw 108 of them with two strikes, which resulted in 38 strikeouts.

His 35 percent putaway rate with that pitch (strikeouts divided by two-strike pitches thrown) trailed only four other pitchers who threw at least 100 two-strike sliders –- Jonny Venters, Sergio Santos, Al Alburquerque and Craig Kimbrel.

Holland’s last outing of 2011, a final-week appearance against the White Sox, may have served as a foreshadowing of what was to come for 2012. After allowing a two-out double to Paul Konerko and issuing an intentional walk to A.J. Pierzynski, Holland struck out the final four hitters he faced to preserve a one-run lead. He blew away Adam Dunn with a 97 mph fastball and froze the other three hitters with nasty sliders.

It was one of four saves that Holland earned over the final two months of the season. He may get a few more chances in the near future.

What's next for B.J. Upton?

March, 5, 2012
Mar 5
9:16
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A look at the difference in production for B.J. Upton over most of the season, and then his hot streak at season's end.
Click here to create your own Upton heat maps

Tampa Bay Rays center fielder B.J. Upton is a free agent to be following the 2012 season, but he’s hit sub-.250 with at least 150 strikeouts each of the previous three seasons.

Upton is someone who has shown the potential to be great, such as in 2007 when he hit .300 with 24 home runs and the 2008 postseason when he slugged seven home runs over the first two rounds. But he hasn’t been able to fully live up to that potential since.

Upton closed 2011 strong and there was one aspect of what he did in the Rays' September stretch that could be key to future performance if he’s able to take some of that into 2012.

Through 2010 and almost all of 2011, Upton struggled against soft stuff (curves, sliders and changeups) away. It didn’t matter if it came from a righty or lefty. It was an issue.

In fact, over the month-long span from Aug. 3 to Sept. 2, Upton saw 84 curves, sliders, and changeups that were either on the outer-third of the plate or further away.

Upton swung 34 times. It netted him 14 outs and no base hits.

But either something started clicking on Sept. 3 against the Orioles or Upton started to get a little lucky. From that point, to the end of the season, he started hitting those pitches.

He missed much less often on his swings as he had in that awful streak. He had nearly as many line drives on soft stuff away as he had in the previous five months.

This time, the net results on his swings were: 10 outs and seven hits.

Granted none of the hits were game-changers of an Evan Longoria variety and he didn’t pad the total in the ALDS against the Rangers. But it was something to build on and perhaps learn from heading into 2012.

What’s next for Upton? You tell us. Share your thoughts in the comments section.

What's next for Pablo Sandoval?

March, 1, 2012
Mar 1
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Pablo Sandoval's hot/cold zones from each side of the plate.
Click here to create your own Sandoval heat maps

Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval is the heir apparent to Vladimir Guerrero and Ichiro Suzuki as the best bad-ball hitter in baseball. (Or maybe it's Salvador Perez.)

Sandoval’s bad-ball success was a huge key to his final 2011 numbers. He finished with a .328 batting average and 11 home runs in at-bats that ended with a pitch judged to be out of the strike zone by baseball’s Pitch F/X system.

Sandoval’s batting average ranked second-best in the majors and his homer total led the majors. It was a huge jump from his 2010 production, as noted in the chart on the right. Sandoval had the same number of hits against out-of-zone pitches in 2011 as he did in 2010. But he made 58 fewer outs.

At the top of this piece are heat maps, which show Sandoval’s bad-ball success from both the left and right sides.

See that big red patch off the outside corner in the image on the left? That’s a valuable area to Sandoval. It was worth 32 hits to him in 2011.

The one issue for Sandoval last season, one in which his defense improved significantly as well, was that he only played in 117 games. If he can maintain this kind of production for a full season, he could be an MVP candidate at year’s end.

What’s next for Sandoval in 2012? You tell us. Share your thoughts in the comments section.

What's next for Alex Gordon?

February, 28, 2012
Feb 28
8:00
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A comparison of Alex Gordon against left-handed pitching
Click here to create your own Gordon heat maps


Alex Gordon had a breakout season in 2011, the kind that had been expected of him since his recall from the minor leagues. He starred for the Kansas City Royals both at bat (.303 BA, 23 HR, 87 RBIs) and in the field (winning a Gold Glove, largely because of his 20 outfield assists).

The biggest jump Gordon made was his performance against left-handed pitching. Gordon entered 2011 as a .215 career hitter against southpaws, but hit a solid .278 with 19 extra-base hits, including eight home runs.

One of Gordon’s primary weaknesses in dealing with lefties was how he handled soft stuff (curves, sliders, changeups) away. He eliminated that as an issue in 2011 in a big way.

Gordon was able to nearly double the rate at which he made contact on swings against those pitches, and the results increased exponentially, as noted in the chart on the right.

There aren’t many left-handed hitters who can hit that type of pitch from a left-handed pitcher. Gordon’s new AL Central-mate, Prince Fielder, struggles with it. So did Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto, and Curtis Granderson last season, among others.

Eliminating that issue added a significant number of hits to Gordon’s ledger and made him a much more viable threat at the plate.

But is that sort of success sustainable? Gordon’s batting average of balls on play against lefties took a big jump, even though his rate of hitting the ball hard didn’t.

You tell us if you think Gordon is legit. Share your thoughts in the comments section.

What's next for Mike Napoli?

February, 27, 2012
Feb 27
12:15
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A comparison of Mike Napoli’s batting average against high, hard pitches in 2011.
Click here to create your own Napoli heat maps


There are zones and then there are zones. And then there’s whatever the heck Mike Napoli was in during the second half of 2011.

Napoli followed a .232/.344/.529 first half with an amazing .383/.466/.706, 18-homer burst after the All-Star break, then followed that up by hitting .328 with three home runs in the Rangers' postseason run.

What changed in Napoli’s performance? How he fared against the high, hard stuff.

Napoli’s return from the disabled list on July 4 was overshadowed by the other player who returned that day -- Derek Jeter. And it took Napoli a few days to get going. But on July 8, Napoli cracked a grand slam on an up-and-in fastball from Gio Gonzalez, and after a few days rest for the All-Star break, things started looking up for him.

When we say that, we mean it literally. Napoli began crushing pitches in the upper-third of the strike zone and above at a prodigious rate.

The hits came first, then the home runs -- a ninth-inning shot off Jon Rauch on July 29, an opposite-field game-tying shot in the eighth inning against Joaquin Benoit on Aug. 2, a ninth-inning homer against Jose Valverde on Aug. 3 and a sixth-inning homer to start a comeback from four runs down against Ubaldo Jimenez on Aug. 5.

In the second half, when a Napoli at-bat ended with him making contact with a fastball, sinker, cutter or splitter that was up in or above the strike zone, he was 28-for-53 with 11 home runs.

The count didn’t matter much to Napoli. Of those 28 hits, 19 (including six home runs) came with two strikes.

Neither did the height of the pitch. Five of the home runs came on pitches above the top of the strike zone.

Nor did where the game was played. Of those 28 hits, 19 (including seven home runs) came away from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

Napoli’s 11 home runs on fastballs (encompassing the sinkers, cutters, and splitters, too) to high locations were four more than anyone else had after the All-Star break.

Even including at-bats that ended with a strikeout, Napoli hit .444 with a 1.032 slugging percentage on high fastballs after the break (the average non-pitcher was .244 and .405). Compare that to what he did prior, as noted in the chart on the right.

We have an advanced stat -- linear weight run value -- which looks at every high pitch that Napoli saw and gives him credit for a positive result (ball, hit, reached on error) and a debit for a negative result (strikes and outs).

After the All-Star break, Napoli’s performance against high pitches was worth 17.4 runs above average. That’s nearly double Nick Swisher, who rated next-highest at 9.8.

Napoli didn’t let up in the postseason, netting seven more hits and three more homers against high, hard pitches. That could have been enough to net him World Series MVP had David Freese’s heroics not gotten in the way.

What’s next for Napoli? Can he maintain anything close to the ridiculousness that was his second half? You tell us. Share your thoughts in the comments section.

What's next for Hanley Ramirez?

February, 7, 2012
Feb 7
5:13
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video For the next two weeks, "Baseball Tonight" (airing at 3:30 p.m. ET) will take a closer look at players in the spotlight for 2012 and ask the question "What's next?" for that player. Share your thoughts in the comments section and join in the discussion.

Hanley Ramirez saw his production drop significantly in 2011, as he dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness.

Ramirez finished with a batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage slash line of .243/.333/.379, all career lows. His OPS dropped by 141 points from 2010. He then was informed he’d be switching positions with the Marlins' signing of Jose Reyes.

One of the issues Ramirez faced in 2011 was that he was unable to do something that usually netted him positive results -- pull balls in the air.

Ramirez became an opposite-field fly ball hitter and his performance subsequently dipped, as the charts on the right illustrate.

Along with that, Ramirez had trouble driving fastballs, sinkers and cutters thrown to the upper-third of the strike zone and above.

When Ramirez made contact with what we called a high, hard pitch in 2009 and 2010, he hit .420 with 66 hits and nine home runs. That dipped to .256 with 11 hits and two home runs in 2011.

The heat map below further shows Ramirez’s struggles.

Left: Hanley Ramirez's hot/cold zones versus fastballs, cutters and sinkers in 2010.
Right: Ramirez's hot/cold zones versus those pitches in 2011.
Click here to create your own Ramirez heat maps


 


So, what's next for Ramirez? Will he bounce back strong in 2012? Discuss below!

Six angles on the Tigers' defense

January, 27, 2012
Jan 27
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Prince FielderAP Photo/Matt SlocumThe Tigers gave Prince Fielder a king's ransom. But it wasn't necessarily for his work with the glove.
I went through our data and divided the information into six storylines to consider about the Detroit defense. A lot of this information is a starting point for discussions, and I’d suggest not viewing the numbers as absolutes, but as indicators.

1. Fielder rates poorly as a first baseman

Worst first basemen since 2006, Defensive Runs Saved:

Prince Fielder, minus-48 runs

Paul Konerko, minus-38 runs

Adam Dunn, minus-35 runs

Ryan Howard, minus-32 runs

Fielder’s defensive issues relate to a simple matter -- fielding batted balls in the areas in which first basemen record outs at least 50 percent of the time. This is covered in the Revised Zone Rating (RZR) metric. Fielder’s RZR since 2006 is .706, fourth-worst among those with at least 2,000 innings at first base.

Miguel Cabrera became a first baseman in 2008. Since then, he’s rated as having cost the Tigers 21 runs. In that same span, Fielder cost the Brewers 25 runs (though he had his best year in 2011, costing the Brewers just one run).

Fielder also does not fare well when it comes to video review. Baseball Info Solutions has video scouts who watch every play of every game and categorize plays as Good Fielding Plays (GFPs) and Defensive Misplays & Errors (DM&E).

Fielder’s 42 Defensive Misplays & Errors were the most in the majors in 2011 and his rate of one every 33 innings ranked ahead of only Daric Barton, Carlos Lee and Eric Hosmer among the 28 first basemen who played at least 500 innings. Fielder rates significantly worse than Cabrera, who averaged one misplay every 47 innings. Cabrera also made good plays more frequently. Here are totals of good fielding plays and misplays, prorated to 1,300 innings:


2. Cabrera didn't rate well at third base

In 2006 and 2007 while with the Marlins, Cabrera was credited with minus-25 Defensive Runs Saved, third-worst of any third baseman in the majors those two years.

Over the past two seasons, Brandon Inge, the Tigers' primary third baseman, has been an MLB average third baseman -- zero Defensive Runs Saved. Last season, Inge cost the Tigers two runs with his defense, the first season in his career in which he had negative Defensive Runs Saved,

3. Detroit's entire infield doesn't rate well

The Tigers were the only team in baseball for which every infield position produced a negative Defensive Runs Saved in 2011.

First base: minus-4

Second base: minus-9

Third base: minus-8

Shortstop: minus-2

But, as their fans will note, that team did win the AL Central and play in the ALCS.

4. Second base might be the bigger issue

The Tigers used six second basemen in 2011, with Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn the only two who played more than 400 innings. In 777 2/3 career innings at second base, Raburn has been charted as costing his team 14 runs. In 1,384 2/3 career innings at second base, Santiago has been credited with saving his team 2 runs. Both are back in 2012.

5. Worst defensive lineup versus best lineup

As a hypothetical, if we made the presumption that the Tigers went primarily with an infield of Fielder, Raburn, Jhonny Peralta and Cabrera, and each of them performed to their career Runs Saved average, with Fielder and Cabrera playing 1,300 innings, and Raburn and Peralta playing 1,100 innings, here’s how they would fare:

1B Fielder: minus-8

2B Raburn: minus-20

SS Peralta: minus-3

3B Cabrera: minus-12

That gives you a combined total of minus-43 Defensive Runs Saved, not taking into account who would fill in for the remaining innings (or much range Cabrera is likely to have lost since 2007). That’s 20 runs worse than the Tigers infield positions combined for last season.

What would the difference be if the Tigers played Cabrera at first, Santiago at second and Inge at third, using the same basic principles (working via career averages)?

1B Cabrera: minus-5 (three runs better than Fielder)

2B Santiago: plus-2 (22 runs better than Raburn)

SS Peralta: minus-3

3B Inge: plus-8 (20 runs better than Cabrera)

The Inge hypothetical might be a little optimistic. He’s rated league average (0 runs saved) over the past two seasons. But it’s still significantly better than Cabrera.

6. Which Tigers starters are most impacted by infield defense?

The Tigers have a combination of pitchers who are reliant on the groundball and those more reliant on the strikeout and balls hit in the air. Here is the 2011 groundball percentage of their four top starters, with their ranking among all AL pitchers who faced at least 250 batters:




Where this move may impact Porcello most is when he gets a right-handed hitter to pull a groundball. We can dig deep into our stats to show that Porcello was among the most successful in baseball when he got hitters to do that.

Our Trumedia video evaluation tool is able to isolate chunks of the field and provide stats related to them. On balls hit to the area that starts with the traditional shortstop-third base hole and extends down the left-field line, the average right-handed hitter hit .300 when they hit a groundball. Those facing Porcello over the past two seasons were 24-for-102 (.235).

Madson's changeup: A deadly weapon

January, 11, 2012
Jan 11
4:52
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Left: Where Ryan Madson threw his changeup (2011)
Right: Where average RHP throws his changeup (2011)
Click here to create your own Madson heat maps

What’s the best "neutralizer pitch" in baseball?

What we’re asking is which pitch best shuts down hitters who bat from the side opposite of how the pitcher throws.

You might think, as a colleague suggested, that the standard-setter for right-handers is Mariano Rivera’s cutter.

But because Rivera throws the pitch almost all the time, it doesn’t quite have the value of the one that was the statistical champ for righties in 2011 -- Ryan Madson's changeup.

Madson, the newest member of the Cincinnati Reds, has had an effective changeup against left-handed hitters for much of his career.

Madson proved himself as a highly capable closer in 2011 with 32 saves in 34 chances, but a large reliever presence in the free-agent market, and a lack of teams wanting to make a long-term investment in a closer, diminished his payday.

The Reds end up being the team which can reap the benefits of Madison’s work.

Madson’s 2011 success was largely due to his holding left-handed hitters to a .198 opponents batting average and .506 opponents OPS, both of which rank among the best in baseball.

He did so with a changeup that was unlike almost any other pitch in the sport. Let’s take a closer look at this pitch.

The Ryan Madson changeup
The image atop this article shows where Madson threw his changeup most often to lefties.

That pitch had the following characteristics:
  • An average of 10 inches of break to the right (the second-biggest amount in MLB).
  • It was out of the strike zone nearly 75 percent of the time.
  • Yet, it was swung at 65 percent of the time (second-most often among right-handers).
  • Hitters missed on more than half their swings (52 percent, third-best among right-handers).
  • Hitters chased 62 percent of pitches out of the strike zone (the highest chase rate for a righty in baseball).
  • It was put in play less than 25 percent of the time (fourth-least among right-handed pitchers).

Madson threw the pitch more than half the time in two-strike counts, and about 30 percent of the time in non two-strike counts. It was very effective in both instances.

The results


Locations for the 2 hits against Madson's changeup



Last season, Madson got 44 left-handed hitters out with his changeup, including the Braves quartet of Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward a combined seven times.

He allowed only two hits and one walk (to Prince Fielder) with the pitch. The hits were both by Nationals -- Scott Cousins and Danny Espinosa -- both in two-strike counts.

The image on the right shows where both pitches were located. They weren’t exactly hanging over the middle of the plate.

Why is this pitch valuable?

In baseball, left-handed hitters generally perform better against right-handed pitchers than right-handed hitters do.

Those who can neutralize this advantage are very valuable, as Madson was for the Phillies.

There is a "Next Level" stat -- Run Value Per Plate Appearance -- that can best establish the value of Madson’s changeup.

In simplest terms, Run Value Per Plate Appearance weighs the positives accomplished with a pitcher’s pitch (strikes and outs) against the negatives allowed (balls, hits, walks, hit by pitches).

Madson’s Run Value per Plate Appearance with his changeup against left-handed hitters last season was -.276. This number is outstanding. In fact, only one pitcher had a pitch that neutralized opposite-hand hitters better than Madson’s changeup last season -- Braves lefty Jonny Venters’ slider had a -.281 RV/PA against right-handed hitters.

The Reds have taken an interesting approach to constructing the back of their bullpen for 2012 with the additions of Sean Marshall and Madson. It will bear watching to see if it makes a difference in neutralizing the Cardinals advantage in the NL Central.

Curt Schilling and 2013: The new Gibson?

January, 10, 2012
Jan 10
1:30
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AP Photo/Getty ImagesThere are many ways by which Curt Schilling's best statistical match is Bob Gibson.


Fill in the blank: Curt Schilling was to his era what _____ was to his era.

The answer that best supports Schilling’s Hall of Fame candidacy is to say “Bob Gibson.” Take a look at the chart on the right. That runs through the basic statistical gamut, when it comes to looking at the two side by side. The key stat is their ERA+.



ERA+ is a stat found on Baseball-Reference.com, designed for cross-era comparison. I feel comfortable in using these stats because I know they’re the kind that Schilling likes. He devised one similar to ERA+ on his blog and used it on Baseball Tonight.

ERA+ rates a pitcher’s ERA relative to his peers at the time, making slight adjustments based on the difficulty of pitching in the various ballparks of the era. It allows us to compare Gibson’s 2.91 to Schilling’s 3.46 on an even playing field, since Schilling pitched in an era that was more offensively friendly. Gibson is a 128 ERA+. That’s elite. It's tied for 13th-best among those who threw at least 2,000 innings since 1920 (or, the Live Ball Era).

It’s the same ERA+ as Tom Seaver. It's better than that of Jim Palmer, Juan Marichal, Warren Spahn. Bert Blyleven, and plenty of other Hall of Famers. And it’s the same ERA+ as Schilling.

In fairness, Gibson put together his ERA+ by averaging 258 innings per season over a 15-year period. Schilling reached that number of innings only three times in his career. But for those who say that Schilling was not quite the workhorse that Gibson was, consider that each was a product of the baseball environment of the times.

Again, relative to their peers, the two were virtually equal. Gibson finished in the top 10 in his league in innings pitched eight times. Schilling finished in the top 10 in his league in innings pitched seven times. There’s a similarity when it comes to awards voting as well. Each of them got Cy Young votes in four different seasons. Gibson won it twice (and won an MVP award in 1968); Schilling finished second three times.

Where the Gibson-Schilling comparison best comes across is in the postseason. In my father’s era, Gibson and Sandy Koufax were the standard-setters for postseason pitchers. In my era (the last 30 years), with apologies to John Smoltz, Schilling is the standard-setter.



Gibson was 7-2, all in the World Series, with a 1.89 ERA in nine starts. Schilling played in an era with a different postseason format, but he was 11-2 with a 2.23 postseason ERA in 19 starts. As noted in that chart, he was 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA in seven World Series starts.

Again it’s a neat comparison to look across the eras. In the stretch in which Gibson pitched in the postseason (1964 to 1968), all of the other pitchers to pitch in the World Series had an ERA of 3.43. Schilling’s World Series ERA is a little higher than Gibson’s, but again, consider the time period. From 1993 to 2007 (Schilling pitched in the World Series in 1993, 2001, 2004, and 2007), all pitchers other than Schilling combined for a World Series ERA of 4.04.

That’s not to say that Schilling was the better postseason pitcher, statistically speaking. Gibson won a pair of Game 7s and had six out of nine World Series starts that tallied an 80 or better by Bill James Game Score, including an epic 17-strikeout start in Game 1 of the 1968 World Series. Schilling has three of his seven World Series starts that rate a 74 or better, with his “epic” being the 147-pitch shutout in Game 5 of the 1993 World Series.

The point isn’t that Schilling is better than Gibson. By this standard, he isn’t. The point is that Schilling was the Gibson of his time. Since 1969 (the year after Gibson made his last World Series starts), Schilling has those three World Series starts of 74 or better. No one else has as many (for the record, Tom Glavine is the only pitcher since then with a pair of 80s or better, but this piece isn’t about him).

I’m not going to pretend that this is the perfect comparison. As my father pointed out, Gibson won with a combination of power and intimidation. Hitters feared facing him. But what Gibson had in fear factor, Schilling had in another area -- precision. He had the second-best strikeout-to walk rate in major league history.

This is not meant to be an advertisement for Schilling’s Hall of Fame candidacy. Nor is it meant to establish who was the better pitcher. We go back to the original fill-in-the-blank, and it will be interesting to see what happens when the Hall of Fame ballots are cast in 2013. Gibson was elected on the first ballot. Schilling … we’ll have to wait and see.

One Game 6 pitch that made the difference

December, 30, 2011
12/30/11
2:20
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Approximate location of the 1-2 pitch from Neftali Feliz to David Freese in the ninth inning of Game 6.

The most interesting pitch to dissect from the 2011 season is the 1-2 pitch that Texas Rangers closer Neftali Feliz threw to David Freese with two on, two outs and the Rangers leading the St. Louis Cardinals 7-5 in Game 6 of the World Series.

The image above shows the location of that pitch -- a 98 mph fastball on the outer third of the plate. Our department has a pitch-by-pitch database, with which we can look at every pitch thrown to an approximate location. This isn’t perfect science, given the imperfections of the Pitch F/X system, but it’s the best we can do at the moment.

In replicating this situation -- a two-strike pitch to a right-handed hitter in which Feliz threw a fastball -- we found six pitches, prior to the one to Freese, thrown to that approximate spot. Three of the pitches were fouled away. The other three were at-bat enders.

On May 7, the Rangers led the Yankees by the same 7-5 score with two outs in the ninth inning. Feliz had a little bit of breathing room in that one, with no one on base. He threw a 96 mph fastball that Derek Jeter grounded harmlessly to short for the final out in a Rangers win.

In June, he got Jason Bourgeois of the Houston Astros to ground out to second base; in July, he got Josh Willingham, then of the Oakland Athletics, to fly out to left center. Additionally, on June 12, 2010, Feliz gave up a pair of hits to Jonathan Lucroy and Rickie Weeks of the Milwaukee Brewers on 1-2 counts.

Since then, he had thrown 84 pitches on a 1-2 count to a right-handed hitter. He allowed a man to reach base on only one of those pitches, when he hit Allen Craig with a 1-2 curveball three days prior. He got 36 batters out (two hit into double plays) with those 84 pitches and allowed no hits. Of those 36, 16 struck out, most recently Austin Jackson, who swung through a 101 mph 1-2 fastball in Game 1 of the ALCS.

On this occasion, Freese would make contact. As it had been for Freese during the postseason, it was very solid contact. By our research, and again this is very unscientific, it was the second time he made contact against a two-strike fastball thrown to that spot by a righty (he also grounded out to first base against the Brewers in April 2010).

That brings us to the second aspect of the play.

The ball took off on a path between a line drive and fly ball to right field. It had a velocity of 101.4 mph and reached an apex of 60 feet; I’m told neither number rates particularly high. It hung in the air for four seconds. And it stayed in the ballpark, and that gave Rangers right fielder Nelson Cruz a shot at catching it.

What was Cruz’s chance of catching that ball? That’s a great question, and while we can’t answer it exactly, we can touch on a few pertinent pieces of information related to it.

Cruz rated above-average via BIS's Plus-Minus metric, at catching balls hit to the deepest part of right field. Over the previous three seasons, Cruz saved his team 29 bases on balls hit to the deepest parts of ballparks, though in 2011, he was only a plus-three. There was a time in his career in which Cruz had difficulties with right-field walls. BIS has logged 12 instances since 2009 in which Cruz either went back to the fence, and missed a ball that rolled past him, or had other wall-related issues trying to make a catch. However, only one of them came in the 2011 season.

Twice in the postseason, Cruz made a catch going back on a ball hit to deep right field, once against Brandon Inge in Game 6 of the ALCS, and then again against Albert Pujols in Game 2 of the World Series.

In this instance, Cruz reached for the ball. He came very close to it but missed. Two runs scored. Game tied. A few hours later, the series was tied. A day later, the Cardinals were celebrating a championship.

It was one pitch that made the difference between baseball jubilation and baseball devastation. One pitch with all sorts of fascinating intrigue.

Defensive performance of the year

December, 26, 2011
12/26/11
12:00
PM ET

Jim Cowsert/US Presswire
Shelley Duncan made a season's worth of incredible catches in one day, but was it enough to earn him the Defensive Game of the Year honor for 2011?

Context or quantity, what’s your preference? That’s the question that requires answering when trying to select which player had the Defensive Game of the Year in 2011.

It struck me that it would be an interesting project to try to determine the game in which a player did the most with the glove. Baseball Info Solutions charts every play of every game, tagging the best plays into 30 categories of Good Fielding Plays (GFPs). They denote the plays for which you’d likely put a star on your scorecard and keep a running count throughout the season.

Using a combination of their lists and anecdotal recall, I was able to come up with about 30 nominees. These were either players who made at least three out-producing GFPs in a game or made multiple plays of great significance to the ultimate outcome of the game.

After reviewing video for each candidate, it came down to two choices, and that’s where the context versus quantity debate comes into play.

My pick for the Defensive Game of the Year by a player goes to Brent Lillibridge of the White Sox. This selection is one that will be worthy of debate. Consider this: Lillibridge only played two innings in his game and handled two chances, but he made the biggest impact of anyone on the field.

On April 26 against the Yankees, Lillibridge’s team was down 2-1 in the eighth inning when Lillibridge was inserted as a pinch-runner for Carlos Quentin. Paul Konerko, and then homered off Rafael Soriano to put the White Sox up, 3-2.

Lillibridge wouldn’t get any action as Quentin’s replacement in right field in the eighth, but he became the game’s focal point in the ninth inning. The Yankees put two men on with one out for Alex Rodriguez. On a 2-1 count, Rodriguez hit a line drive towards the right-field fence.

Lillibridge, who was playing deep, sprinted back, reached out and made the catch, his glove parallel to the ground, his left leg up in the air as he leaned into the wall. That play got a “Mercy!” from Ken Harrelson, a hands-on-helmet gasp from Rodriguez and a smile from the runner retreating to second, Derek Jeter.

Kathy Willens/AP Photo
Brent Lillibridge got plenty of kudos for his glovework vs the Yankees



The second catch came two pitches later on Robinson Cano’s sinking line drive to right. This one required a quick sprint toward the line and a full-length dive.

Lillibridge’s glove hit the ground with the baseball with his body fully extended in the air. Cano’s helmet went flying in frustration as Lillibridge slammed the grass with his right hand and let out a yell in celebration.

We wrote about the difficulty of these plays earlier in the season. The second play had a 95 percent chance of being a hit, according to the research done by Baseball Info Solutions. That, combined with the win probability value of the two plays, which took the White Sox chances of winning from 65 percent to 100 percent, made this the choice to be the top honor.

Lillibridge had 12 GFPs in his 339 2/3 innings in the outfield, a pretty good innings-to-play rate. Lillibridge had six Good Plays in just over 200 innings in right field, the most by anyone who didn’t get charged with any Defensive Misplays & Errors (the opposite of GFPs). He had a penchant for great late-game glovework, preserving a 1-0 shutout for Jake Peavy with a tough catch in left-center in the eighth inning of one win, and robbing Coco Crisp of a go-ahead two-run home run in the eighth inning of another.

There is a worthy runner-up for Game of the Year from an unlikely source. In a 9-1 loss to the Rangers on September 14, Cleveland Indians left fielder Shelley Duncan made four fabulous plays on would-be base hits. The amazing thing was that three of them came in a row, for the last two outs of the first inning and the first out of the second inning, each by the 19-foot-high fence in left field.

On the first, Duncan tracked the ball off Elvis Andrus’ bat a little oddly, twisting his body to left center, before stopping and turning back to leap and make the catch right by the wall. The next two looked a little more natural. Both were similar in nature, requiring a full extension in the air with his glove hand, and in the same location, just in front of the last set of games listed on the out-of-town scoreboard.

The image atop this article shows the catch that ended the first inning, against Josh Hamilton, and has a little bit of a “look what I’ve got” quality to it.

The fourth catch came in the fourth inning and required Duncan to come toward the line, come in, and backhand the ball as he slid on the grass. It ended up being overshadowed because the Rangers ended up scoring eight times in the inning. Baseball Info Solutions didn’t award Duncan a GFP for the first catch, but did give him one for each of those last three.

This was about as unlikely a combination of Web Gem-worthiness as you could imagine. In 248 other innings in left field over the rest of the season, Duncan only had one other GFP.

In the end, I selected Lillibridge over Duncan because I wanted to reward the game-saving nature of his plays. Lillibridge's plays were the difference between winning and losing, and their value trumped any others that came along the rest of the season. But before you have at debating this selection and the idea of “clutch defense” in the comments section, here’s a list of some of the other notable contenders, with links to the video so you can check them out for yourself.

Honorable Mentions

Sam Fuld, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' version of Superman had a pair of games that merit mention. On May 7 against the Baltimore Orioles, Fuld made a diving catch in the fourth inning, then went to the left-field fence to rob Matt Wieters of a home run with a leaping catch in the eighth inning.
Sam Fuld

Fuld


Then, on June 19 against the Florida Marlins, Fuld took away a pair of hits, one a line drive in the corner by Omar Infante that likely would have been a double, then came in to shallow left to dive and pick a ball off just before it hit dirt. That preserved a 1-1 eighth-inning tie in a game in which the Rays would score in the home half to win, 2-1.

Also among the best performances by an outfielder were Diamondbacks centerfielder Chris Young (three tough catches in Wrigley Field on April 6), and Astros right fielder Jason Michaels (three catches against the Braves on June 12).

Cody Ransom, Arizona Diamondbacks

Ransom, a Mesa, Arizona native, hit only .152 in 12 games and 33 at-bats for his hometown team but made one of his nine starts count on both the offensive and defensive end.

Ransom’s seventh-inning two-run home run off Clayton Kershaw made the difference in a 4-3 win that kept the Diamondbacks a half-game back of the Giants in the NL West, but that’s not why he’s on this list.
Cody Ransom

Ransom


Ransom made three fine defensive plays, twice going to his right to make difficult plays, then making a nice long throw on Juan Rivera’s ground ball for the final out of the game.

Other infielders worthy of notice were Orioles first baseman Chris Davis (three terrific plays on August 12), Phillies second baseman Chase Utley (four hit robberies vs the Cardinals on June 23), Rays second baseman Ben Zobrist (six GFPs against the Mariners on August 21), Cardinals shortstop Rafael Furcal (six GFPs against the Brewers on August 31), and Rockies third baseman Chris Nelson (three fine plays against the Cardinals on August 12).

Nick Evans, under-the-radar asset?

December, 3, 2011
12/03/11
2:00
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Anthony Gruppuso/US PresswireNick Evans' defensive skills could be of value down the road.


You probably didn’t notice that the Pittsburgh Pirates recently signed first baseman and outfielder Nick Evans to a minor league contract within the past two weeks. There wasn’t much reason to do so. Evans was nondescript with the bat, hitting .256 with four home runs and 25 RBIs for the Mets in 2011.

But Evans did something within his limited time that was significant to those of us trying to learn about advanced defensive stats. It struck me as being the defensive equivalent to hitting .400 over 150-or-so at-bats. In 337 2/3 innings, the equivalent of 37 ½ nine-inning games at first base, Evans finished with seven defensive runs saved. That’s a good number for a first baseman. It tied him for most in the majors for the season with Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo.

It’s also significantly better than what the Pirates got from their first basemen last season. Theirs ranked 28th in the majors, costing the team 11 runs.

Defensive runs saved for first basemen calculates the ability to turn batted balls into outs and the success at getting outs on bunts.

Evans scored well primarily because he did well handling the 46 balls that were hit into his “zone,” with “zone” defined as the areas on the field in which first basemen turned batted balls into an out more than half of the time.

Evans’ revised zone rating was 84.8% (of the 46 balls in his zone, he converted 39 into outs).

That rate was tied for fifth-best among the 46 first basemen that played at least 300 innings at the position.

It was within striking distance of MLB leader Todd Helton (85.9 percent) and considerably ahead of Evans’ crosstown counterpart, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira (77.0 percent). For every 46 balls hit into his zone last season, Teixeira got 35 outs, four fewer than Evans did in his (admittedly small) sample.

The way that Baseball Info Solutions, which calculates a plus-minus rating for every fielder, looks at it, they divide batted balls into three areas for infielders -- balls hit to the left and right of the area where most outs are recorded, and balls hit directly where a first baseman most often records outs.

Evans was a plus-six on balls hit into the latter area, meaning he was six plays better than the average first baseman. That factored significantly into Evans’ defensive runs saved rating, as did his defense on bunts, which was similarly above average.

Evans’ success jibed with that which he’d had as a minor leaguer as well.

The researchers at Baseball Info Solutions, whose founder John Dewan came up with the defensive runs saved metric, acknowledge that the stat isn’t necessarily the perfect measure of a first baseman’s skills.

There are many other components to first base defense (a recent article in the blog “DRays Bay” attempted to put a value on each), the most recognizable to fans being the ability to handle throws from one’s teammates.

So we dug a little deeper.

In addition to coming up with sabermetric stats, Baseball Info Solutions hires “video scouts” (for the most part, former high school and college players) to chart games from television viewing, tagging notable plays into more than 80 subcategories of “Good Fielding Plays” (GFPs) and “Defensive Misplays & Errors.” (DM&Es)
There are tightly defined rules, devised by sabermetrician Bill James, to what constitutes a GFP and a DM.

First basemen were credited with just over 2,000 Good Fielding Plays and just under 1,100 Defensive Misplays & Errors in 2011, the ratio of good to bad being about 1.9-to-1.

In his time at first base, Evans’ ratio of GFPs to DMs was 24-to-5, or almost 5-to-1.

The reason for this was that in the eyes of multiple viewers (video scouts rotate so not to watch the same team or player too often), Evans was adept at a key aspect to his position not measured by Defensive Runs Saved or UZR/150- catching throws.

Evans was credited with 11 GFPs for “handling a difficult throw” (usually either by scooping it out of the dirt or coming off the base) in which the Mets got the batter out, and four GFPs for “catches wild throw,” meaning that he prevented a batter or baserunner from gaining an extra base by coming off the bag to block/catch an errant throw.

Samples of Evans handiwork in this area can be seen at these three links.

Evans was tagged for only one DM&E for “failing to catch the throw” from a teammate. His ratio of good-to-bad plays was 15-to-1. By comparison, the average ratio for a first baseman on these plays was 5-to-1. Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who won the NL’s Gold Glove, had 29 GFPs and 10 DM&Es related to handling throws.

We’re not saying that Evans can maintain the sort of success from his small sample over a full season.

But for the Pirates, who also showed a defensive-minded commitment with the signing of shortstop Clint Barmes, it’s an interesting sort of gamble that could be worth watching more closely as the 2012 season unfolds

Podcast: Kemp, GM meetings, Astros

November, 15, 2011
11/15/11
2:39
PM ET
We jammed 55 minutes of intense analysis into this week’s edition of the Baseball Today podcast. Among the highlights from our chats with Jayson Stark and Fangraphs.com co-founder Dave Cameron:
  • Jayson and I agree on the Matt Kemp signing seeming a little too hefty, particularly given what happened in 2010. Dave offers an analytical way to look at deals of this nature using a tool on Fangraphs' site.
  • Jayson runs through the other business at hand this week: The latest managerial rumblings, calling the Cubs' situation a tough read and explaining how some free agents may sign under the terms of the old collective bargaining agreement and some under the new one.
  • I offer up an idea, albeit unrealistic, about eliminating divisions altogether. Jayson shoots it down and explains how interleague play will work when Astros switch to AL in 2013.
  • Dave shows how perception and reality differ when looking closely at the stats for potential trade target John Danks and free-agent starter Edwin Jackson, and home-road splits for Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton .
  • Can the Mariners afford Prince Fielder? Dave offers his thoughts.

Plus, we dive into some questions that these guys won’t be asked in their myriad other spots this week. Subjects include Scott Kazmir, Jack Cust, unsung MVPs and the chance that the Mets' biggest move of the offseason is ditching Mr. Met and bringing in Youppi. That and much more are in today's Baseball Today podcast.
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