SweetSpot: Milwaukee Brewers

So we ended up with the quite the finish here. Lots of bad baseball down the stretch. Lots. Remember: The top 10 picks are protected if you sign a free agent who is given a qualifying offer. Plus, the worse you finish in the overall standings the more money you get to spend in the draft. Yay, incentivized losing!

1. Astros: 51-111
Just in case they were worried about the Marlins catching them, they lost their final 15 games to ensure the No. 1 pick for the third draft in a row.

2. Marlins: 62-100
Kudos to Henderson Alvarez for his final-day no-hitter. In fact, the Marlins swept the Tigers in that season-ending series and won five of their final six, allowing just seven runs over those six games.

3. White Sox: 63-99
Tried hard to catch the Marlins, going 7-21 in September and losing five of their final six. Went 2-17 against the Indians, although no truth to the rumor that the Indians will share their playoff shares with the White Sox.

4. Cubs: 66-96
Ended up tied with the Twins, but get the higher pick based on 2012 record. And boy did they fight hard to get that fourth pick. Lost six of their final seven and 12 of their final 15.

5. Twins: 66-96
Lost 10 of final 11. Too bad they beat the Tigers in extra innings on Sept. 23 or they would be drafting one slot higher. In Sunday's finale, ensured defeat with three errors. In the sixth inning. Nice job, Twins!

6. Mariners: 71-91
Went 6-14 over their final 20 games to slide from a bubble team securely into a top-10 position. Lost their final eight extra-inning games, proving there's an art to successful tanking. Namely: A bad bullpen helps.

7. Phillies: 73-89
It looked like they would jump out of the bottom 10 but then lost nine of their final 11. No wonder Ryne Sandberg got the job for next year! The final game was huge, as the Phillies came up big with a 12-5 loss to the Braves.

Now, this is where things get really interesting. We had a four-way tie for spots 8 through 11. The tiebreaker is 2012 record. So ...

8. Rockies: 74-88
Those two one-run wins over the Dodgers on Saturday and Sunday didn't help, but the tiebreaker gives them the edge. Not that they'll be pursuing Robinson Cano or anything.

9. Blue Jays: 74-88
How nervous was GM Alex Anthopoulos watching the Jays nearly rally from a 7-0 deficit on Sunday? They did beat the Rays twice on the final weekend but still lost 12 of their final 19.

10. Mets: 74-88
The Mets had the most to lose if they finished out of the top 10, since they presumably could be pursuing some of the big free agents this winter. Luckily the offense came through with three straight 4-2 losses to the Brewers (before winning the season finale 3-2).

11. Brewers: 74-88
Well, this is what a 15-12 record in September will do to you. No Kyle Lohse for the Brewers this offseason!

12. Padres: 76-86
Yes, Padres fans, there were 11 teams worse than yours.

13. Giants: 76-86
The Giants went 10-5 over their final 15 to at least avoid becoming just the second World Series winner (after the 1997 Marlins) to finish in last place the next season. So there's that.

14. Angels: 78-84
A 21-7 stretch in August/September ruined any chance the Angels had of finishing with a top-10 pick. So if they went to throw $250 million at Cano, it will cost them their first-round pick.
I did my American League All-Star team yesterday. Here's my National League squad. A few more tougher calls in the NL.

Catcher: Yadier Molina, Cardinals (.319/.359/.477, 12 HR, 80 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Two questions: Is Molina a legitimate MVP candidate and how will he fare in the voting? Sure, he's a strong candidate, although I have Andrew McCutchen as my clear No. 1 guy. Due to his relatively low runs plus RBIs total (he has 68 runs scored), Molina would certainly be an unconventional MVP candidate. Wins Above Replacement accounts for some of Molina's defense -- such as throwing out runners -- but can't measure some of the intangibles, such as the confidence he gave to the young St. Louis starters. Molina's offense numbers are similar to last year, when he finished fourth in voting, so I wouldn't be surprised if he jumps up to second this season.

First base: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks (.302/.401/.553, 36 HR, 124 RBI, 7.1 WAR)
Goldschmidt or Joey Votto? It's not quite as simple as Goldschmidt's 51-RBI advantage as both put up similar numbers otherwise, with Votto having the edge in on-base percentage (.436) and Goldschmidt in power (36 home runs to 24). Both were extremely durable -- Goldschmidt has missed two games, Votto zero -- and solid defenders. The one big difference is an advanced metric called Win Probability Added, a category Goldschmidt led all NL position players in, thanks in part to his .350 average in high-leverage situations and nine home runs in late and close situations (second-most in the majors to Chris Davis). I'm confident Goldschmidt is the right choice here.

Second base: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals (.320/.394/.484, 11 HR, 78 RBI, 6.7 WAR)
An easy choice as Carpenter leads the NL in runs, hits and doubles while ranking in the top 10 in numerous other categories. I'm guessing Molina garners more MVP support, but Carpenter is just as worthy to finish in the top five.

Third base: David Wright, Mets (.308/.393/.516, 18 HR, 57 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Pedro Alvarez leads the NL with 36 home runs and has knocked in 100 but a .233 average and sub-.300 OBP means he created a ton of outs to generate those runs. Ryan Zimmerman waited too long to start hitting. Chris Johnson hit .321 for the Braves. None were above-average defenders. So almost by default I'll go with Wright, who easily has the highest WAR even though he missed 50 games.

Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons, Braves (.244/.292/.390, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 6.5 WAR)
I've been raving about Simmons all season so I can't change now. Troy Tulowitzki was great once again and relatively healthy (125 games), although he hit 61 points higher at home. Hanley Ramirez was the best on a per at-bat basis but played just 86 games. Ian Desmond flew under the radar year for the Nationals. But Simmons is my guy, even with that sub-.300 OBP. His defense was that good.

Left field: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies (.302/.367/.591, 26 HR, 70 RBI, 5.1 WAR)
Starling Marte had an excellent all-around season (41 steals, great defense) for the Pirates and Matt Holliday was solid for the Cardinals. Gonzalez's season was similar to Wright's -- if he'd remained healthy, he'd be the obvious choice, but he missed 50 games. Unlike Tulo, he actually hit better on the road, so it's not a Coors-inflated season. I'll go with CarGo just barely over Marte.

Center field: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (.317/.404/.508, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 8.2 WAR)
Carlos Gomez would be an MVP candidate if he had better teammates. Shin-Soo Choo gave the Reds exactly what they needed, a leadoff hitter who got on base. But this was McCutchen's season as he often carried a mediocre Pittburgh offense and hit .339/.441/.561 in the second half, helping keep the Pirates in the division title race. He's the likely MVP winner and not a "weak" MVP, as some have speculated. His WAR is higher than the past three NL MVPs, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and Votto. He may not drive in 100 runs or score 100 (he's at 97), but it was the best all-around season in the league.

Right field: Jayson Werth, Nationals (.318/.398/.532, 25 HR, 82 RBI, 4.8 WAR)
A loaded position, and that's with Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton missing significant time. Jay Bruce, Yasiel Puig, Hunter Pence and Marlon Byrd all have their supporters (and Gerardo Parra leads in WAR). The knock against Werth, like Wright and Gonzalez, is that he missed significant time (129 games). But Bruce has a .329 OBP. Puig didn't get called up until June and Pence's monster September (11 HR, 29 RBI) came after the Giants had long been eliminated and arguably against dubious September pitching.

Starting pitchers: Clayton Kersaw, Dodgers (16-9, 1.83 ERA, 8.0 WAR); Cliff Lee, Phillies (14-8, 2.87 ERA, 7.2 WAR); Jose Fernandez, Marlins (12-6, 2.19 ERA, 6.3 WAR); Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (19-9, 2.94 ERA, 6.2 WAR); Matt Harvey, Mets (9-5, 2.27 ERA, 5.4 WAR)
Oh, Cliff Lee is still good. There were no shortage of top starters in the NL as 18 qualified starters have posted an ERA of 3.25 or under, the most since 17 did it in 1992 and 10 more than last year.

Left-handed setup guy: Luis Avilan, Braves (5-0, 1.55 ERA)
Part of Atlanta's dominant bullpen, Avilan fanned just 38 in 64 innings but allowed a .173 average and just one home run. He gets great movement on his two-seam sinking fastball, resulting in fewer K's but a lot of groundballs. Honorable mention to Pittsburgh's Justin Wilson.

Right-handed setup guy: Mark Melancon, Pirates (3-2, 1.39 ERA)
He had a couple rough outings in September, but was dominant throughout the season, first setting up Jason Grilli and then earning 16 saves when Grilli was injured.

Closer: Craig Kimbrel, Braves (4-3, 50 saves, 1.23 ERA)
He did blow four save chances and wasn't quite as statistically dominant as last season -- and still finished with 1.23 ERA and 50 saves.







The 10 worst decisions of 2013

September, 27, 2013
Sep 27
11:00
AM ET
Earlier, I presented the 10 best decisions of 2013. Here are my 10 worst decisions -- moves that were clearly questionable when made. And, no, all 10 do not involve the Phillies.

10. Angels give $125 million to Josh Hamilton. It's easy to forget that Hamilton hit 43 home runs and finished fifth in the MVP voting with the Rangers last season. But that was fueled by a huge first half. A big increase in strikeouts compared to 2011 and an increasingly poor approach at the plate were warning signals that he could be a risky investment. Hamilton salvaged his season a little in the second half, but he's still a guy with a .304 OBP and the Angels will be on the hook for $30 million a season in 2016 and 2017 -- his age 35 and 36 seasons.

9. Rockies give rotation spot to Jeff Francis. Francis had a 5.00 ERA with the Rockies in 2010. He had a 4.82 ERA with the Royals in 2011. He had a 5.58 ERA with the Rockies in 2012. The Rockies thought it was a good idea to give him 11 starts. Look, if three guys get hurt and you have to use Francis to fill in, OK. But 11 starts? He went 2-5 with a 6.61 ERA.

8. Yankees have no backup plan for Derek Jeter. Knowing Jeter's return from last October's broken ankle didn't have an exact timetable, and knowing his defense was an issue even when he was healthy, the Yankees needed an alternative plan -- and, no, Jayson Nix and Eduardo Nunez weren't good ideas. I advocated early in the season that the Yankees go after defensive whiz Brendan Ryan, a move the team finally made in September. Nix, a .214 career hitter entering the season, didn't hit much and Nunez, a terrible fielder, rated at minus-28 Defensive Runs Saved, the worst total of any player in the majors.

7. Brewers pretend Yuniesky Betancourt is still a major league player. Giving Betancourt 396 plate appearances is kind of like giving up. Betancourt hit .280 with six home runs and 21 RBIs in April. Fake! He was still Yuniesky Betancourt and has hit .189/.215/.287 from May 8 on -- that's 284 PAs. Once it became obvious that April was a fluke, why keep him around all season?

6. Royals count on Jeff Francoeur for more than clubhouse leadership. The Royals believed so much in Francoeur that they traded super prospect Wil Myers to keep Francoeur in right field. Even though Francoeur hit .235/.287/.378 in 2012 and was worth minus-2.3 WAR. As in, way below replacement level. Francoeur played 59 games, struck out 49 times, drew eight walks, hit .208 and was mercifully released on July 5. There also was the Chris Getz problem at second. Or Ned Yost batting Alcides Escobar second for nearly 300 at-bats despite a .274 OBP. Or that Carlos Pena pinch-hit appearance ... if you get the idea that Yost had a bad year, well ...

5. Royals give Wade Davis 24 starts. Part of the controversial Myers-James Shields trade, Davis had pitched very well for Tampa Bay out of the bullpen in 2012, but the Royals decided to return Davis to the rotation, where he had mediocre results in 2010 and 2011 (4.27 ERA). Giving Davis a chance to start wasn't the worst idea, although he wasn't that great as a starter in Tampa considering the Rays' great defense and a pitcher's park. He was better in relief because his fastball ticked up in shorter outings. The big problem here was Yost kept running Davis out there despite a 5.67 ERA and .320 batting average allowed. The Royals have allowed the fewest runs in the AL, but what if Bruce Chen had joined the rotation before mid-July?

4. Mariners think it's a good idea to play Michael Morse and Raul Ibanez in the outfield. Together. OK, we'll be a little fair to GM Jack Zduriencik, who did reportedly acquire Justin Upton, only to see Upton veto the trade. He also pursued Hamilton. So Morse was kind of a Plan C or Plan D, the hope being his bat would make up for his lousy defense. Nope. Morse's defense was predictably awful, plus he didn't hit. When Franklin Gutierrez spent the year raising sheep in Australia instead of playing center field, that forced the Mariners to use Ibanez regularly in left field, giving them two of the worst (the worst?) corner defenders in the majors.

3. Giants stand pat with Barry Zito. OK, he beat Justin Verlander in Game 1 of the World Series, which pretty much justified that $126 million contract all by itself. While it was understandable to open the season with Zito in the rotation -- he was at least serviceable last season before his clutch postseason performances -- you couldn't assume Zito would roll 30 starts again. Zito went 5-11 with a 5.75 ERA as the Giants gave him 25 starts. But that ERA comes courtesy of help from pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. Zito went a stunning 0-9 on the road with a 9.56 ERA and .401 average allowed. Basically, on the road, the average hitter against Zito was Ted Williams.

2. Angels sign Joe Blanton. Considering Blanton had a 4.79 ERA in the National League over the three previous seasons, the odds that he would perform better moving over to the American League seemed slim. There may have been some belief that Blanton's fly-ball tendencies would work in Anaheim. Wishful thinking. He went 2-14 with a 6.04 ERA. Meanwhile, the Angels let Ervin Santana go, and he had a great year for the Royals.

1. The Phillies go Young. Let's see. Delmon Young and Michael Young were worth a combined minus-2.8 WAR in 2012, with the Defensive Runs Saved statistic suggesting both were lousy defenders. Ruben Amaro flouted advanced metrics and acquired both players. They combined for minus-2.3 WAR while with the Phillies. On a perhaps related note, the Phillies have allowed the second-most runs in the NL.
Bud Selig has officially announced that he'll step down as commissioner in January 2015. Jerry Crasnick will assess his legacy (hey, if Bowie Kuhn made the Hall of Fame I suspect Selig will eventually as well), but here are five key issues for the next commissioner to address.

1. Instant replay and quality of umpiring

We finally get expanded replay next season, so that should help resolve some of the controversial and blown calls. It remains to be seen how effective and efficient the system will be, but it can be adjusted as necessary. Just as importantly, the new commissioner has to work to improve consistency of ball/strike calls and reduce the episodes of ump rage.

Right now, the best umps (Eric Cooper, Chad Fairchild, Phil Cuzzi) get about 90 percent of ball/strike calls correct, according to our pitch data; the worst umps (Wally Bell, Tim Welke, Kerwin Danley, Jerry Meals) are at 86 percent. That difference may not seem like a lot, but that's a spread of 10 incorrect calls per 250 pitches. Even a 90 percent correct rate means the best umps are missing about 25 to 30 ball/strike calls a game. Maybe the human eye can't do better, but MLB needs to pay its umpire better, and in particular pay minor league umpires a living wage, so you can recruit from a wider field of candidates.

2. To DH or not to DH?

This ridiculousness has gone on too long. You simply can't have one sport with two leagues playing under different rules. The answer seems to be pretty obvious: Get rid of the designated hitter. There were only four full-time DHs this year: David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, Billy Butler and Kendrys Morales. They all batted at least 500 times as a DH. Nobody else even had 300 plate appearances (including Adam Dunn, who played a lot of first base). With so few teams actually using a DH, the resolution should be pretty clear. OK, so Butler is the youngest of those four and signed through 2015. No DH starting in 2016.

3. Oakland and Tampa Bay stadium issues

Look, both organizations have shown they can compete and win in spite of their lousy ballparks and low revenue. Part of the problem is that other teams are tired of propping up the Rays and A's. "The key here is to recognize that without the revenue-sharing dollars, we wouldn't even be able to compete or do what we're doing," Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said in August. "The other owners are looking at this and saying, 'How many years is this going to be? How much money is this going to be to a failing situation?'"

Oakland's problem is more easily solved. The A's want to move to San Jose; the Giants hold territorial rights to Santa Clara County (given to them years ago by the A's). A three-quarters majority vote of all owners can return those rights to the A's, but Selig has refused to call for a vote, wanting unanimity, including the Giants. Well, of course, the Giants would vote against it. The new commish should side with the A's here and get them, literally, out of the sewage.

4. Tanking

I've written about this issue. Buster Olney addressed it the other day. The current collective bargaining agreement makes it beneficial for teams to lose -- either to get a higher draft position (and thus more money to spend in the draft) or finish with one of the 10 worst records and thus have a protected first-round pick when signing free agents. What kind of sport essentially encourages tanking for 10 or more teams?

This season, we'll likely finish with 10 teams and maybe 11 winning 90 games ... and seven to 10 losing 90 games. You don't want to read too much into one season, but it's possible we'll see more seasons like this: Contenders and non-contenders, which makes for a less interesting sport. Back in 2004, only five teams won 90 and six lost 90. That's a healthier sport.

But the draft rules tie into another problem. For the most part, the owners love the new rules and capping the amount teams can spend in the draft. Why give more money to amateurs when you can pocket some of that money instead and buy new leather seats for your private jet? The long-range issue here is obvious: You risk talented athletes choosing other sports as signing bonuses decrease. The new commissioner should find ways to get more athletes playing baseball, rather than potentially pushing them towards a different sport.

5. The schedule

Nobody likes the fact that interleague play is now a constant throughout the season, but that's unavoidable with 15 teams in each league. But the unbalanced schedule creates issues of teams competing for the same thing (a wild-card spot) while playing vastly different schedules.

My own personal pet peeve is that the season drags too long into October. Last year's World Series games in Detroit were played in brutally cold weather. Depending on which teams advance, you're often playing your most important games of the year in your worst weather. The World Series can be as much a test of ability as a test of weather fortitude. There isn't a good solution, unless your shorten the regular season or the playoffs, add some doubleheaders, or -- god forbid -- play some World Series games during the day. The weather in Detroit in the afternoon last October was quite lovely. At night? Not so much.
The New York Mets' rotation right now includes Daisuke Matsuzaka, who owns the worst ERA since 2009 of any pitcher with at least 300 innings. They just signed Aaron Harang, released by the Mariners after posting a 9.12 ERA in August.

Why would a team playing out the string give starts to two washed-up veterans?

It's pretty simple: The Mets have come down with injuries to their rotation and they want to limit Zack Wheeler's innings, so they'll use a six-man rotation in September to space out his starts. Unwilling to use some of the younger pitchers already on the 40-man roster -- who would have their own innings limits -- the Mets dug up whoever they could to fill their holes.

But it's not quite so simple; there's more to it than just protecting Wheeler. The Mets want to lose. Or, at least, I think they want to lose, because there is incentive to lose ... or lose often enough to finish with one of the 10 worst records in baseball.

Remember last winter when the Mets wanted to sign free agent Michael Bourn? And Bourn apparently wanted to play with the Mets? Bourn ended up signing with Cleveland because the Mets held the 11th pick in the first round -- and only the first 10 picks are protected if you sign a free agent who has been given a qualifying offer by his previous team. The Mets decided that signing Bourn and losing the pick wasn't worth it; the Indians, drafting fifth, signed Bourn and Nick Swisher, two free agents tied to qualifying offers.

Basically, by tying draft picks to free agency, MLB is encouraging tanking. No team wants to finish with the 11th- or 12th-worst record and lose that first-round pick if they sign an elite free agent -- which this offseason could include the likes of Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Matt Garza, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Ervin Santana. You don't think the Mets would be interested in a couple of those outfielders?

True, free agency has always been tied to draft picks, but two things happened in the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement. First, it used to be that the top 15 picks were protected when signing the old "Type A" free agent; there is a big difference, however, between the 10th-worst team, which is a team that usually finishes well under .500, and a middle-of-the-pack team, which is usually one on the fringes of the playoff race. This year, for example, the No. 15 team is Washington, currently a game over .500. The second major change was that each team is given a draft budget, based on money allocated for each pick. Finish worse and you get more money to spend on the draft.

That means September baseball will include Matsuzaka and Harang pitching their hearts out to help the Mets. You see, the Mets currently own the 10th-worst record in the majors. They are right on the border of no-man's land, "leading" the Phillies and Blue Jays by just one game. In fact, the race for the 10th spot is going to be nearly as heated as the race for the playoffs. Here are the standings in the race for No. 10 -- starting with the Astros and including how many games behind each team is from the team below them:


Team W L Pct. GB
1. Astros 45 92 .328 ---
2. Marlins 51 85 .375 6.5
3. White Sox 56 80 .412 5
4. Cubs 58 79 .423 1.5
5. Brewers 59 78 .431 1
6. Twins 60 76 .441 1.5
7. Padres 61 76 .445 0.5
7. Giants 61 76 .445 0.5
9. Mariners 62 75 .453 1
10. Mets 62 74 .456 0.5
11. Blue Jays 63 75 .457 1
11. Phillies 63 75 .457 1
13. Rockies 65 74 .468 1.5
14. Angels 64 72 .471 0.5


The Twins, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Blue Jays and Phillies -- sixth-worst to 12th-worst -- are separated by just two games. In the 2013 draft, the Marlins drafted sixth and had a draft budget of $9.5 million. The Mariners drafted 12th and had a budget of $6.1 million. It's going to be a mad, mad scramble to lose just the right amount of games. Not that front offices right on the border will ever admit that.

The final standings are particularly crucial to clubs like the Mets, Phillies, Giants and Mariners, who would be willing to spend the money to dip into the free-agent market to plug holes. Like the Mets, the Mariners are desperate for outfielders. Ellsbury, an Oregon native, would be a perfect fit for their center-field hole; Choo would look great in a corner outfield slot. But the risk of losing that pick if you finish No. 11 has to be weighed.

Look, there's risk in tanking. The Astros tore everything apart a couple of years ago in beginning a complete overhaul of the organization, but how many fans will they lose with years of bad baseball and how many years will it take to win them back? But that's an extreme example. We're really talking only a few wins here -- 74 wins instead of 77. That's not going to have an effect on your fan base or season-ticket sales. (There's an argument that finishing over .500 provides more hope and could lead to more ticket sales over the winter, but right now none of these teams are pushing .500.)

So if you're a Mets fan or Phillies fan or Mariners fan, you have some standings to pay attention to in September. Enjoy the tanking.
I just wrote about the National League Rookie of the Year debate and one of the fun things about the players involved is their ages -- Yasiel Puig is 22, Jose Fernandez just turned 21, Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran are 22. These guys are already very good and still very young.

Last week, Joe Posnanski wrote about all the young talent in the majors today and pointed out we could end up with 13 or 14 players in their age 23-or-younger season who could end up with 3.0 WAR or higher. The "record" for this category, according to Posnanski (I assume he was searching on Baseball-Reference.com) was 1978, when 14 players did it. The catch: Joe was writing about position players only.

Topping the list would be Mike Trout, with Manny Machado, Andrelton Simmons, Jean Segura, Freddie Freeman, Puig and Nolan Arenado already above the 3.0 mark. Jason Heyward is at 2.9 and on a hot streak. Eric Hosmer is at 2.7 WAR. That's nine guys who should get there with Anthony Rizzo, Brett Lawrie, Salvador Perez, Jose Iglesias and Bryce Harper between 1.9 and 2.1 WAR. Wil Myers has 1.7 WAR in about two months of play. This list doesn't even include Giancarlo Stanton, still just 23, but having a disappointing season with 1.3 WAR after leading the National League in slugging percentage last season.

So that's a lot of young talent without even talking about the pitchers.

Anyway, Joe didn't mention all the 1978 guys in his piece, so I thought it would be interesting to check out that list and see what happened the rest of their careers. Indulge me as I revisit the players of my youth, when I first started watching baseball and kept baseball cards in shoe boxes, wrapped in rubber bands.

Jack Clark: 5.9 (52.9 career WAR)
Clark finished fifth in the 1978 NL MVP vote and became one of the best hitters of the '80s (sixth in OPS+ for the decade behind Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Pedro Guerrero and Darryl Strawberry). He couldn't stay healthy, however -- during his age 27-to-30 peak years he averaged just 96 games per season. Couldn't keep his mouth shut either. Still can't keep his mouth shut.

Willie Randolph 5.8 (65.6)
Underrated player due to his defense and walks; a borderline Hall of Fame candidate by his career WAR total but fell off the ballot after one year and would appear an unlikely Veterans Committee candidate.

Jason Thompson 5.6 (24.8)
The 23-year-old first baseman for the Tigers hit .287 with 26 home runs and walks and made his second All-Star team. Looked like he'd be a big star for a long time, but it didn't happen. After a slow start in 1980, the Tigers dumped him to the Angels for Al Cowens, and then after hitting .317/.439/.526 the rest of the season for the Angels, he was traded to the Pirates for Ed Ott and Mickey Mahler -- 29-year-old part-time catcher and nobody pitcher. The Pirates were then supposed to trade Thompson to the Yankees -- basically for $500,000 in cash -- but the commissioner vetoed that trade so he was stuck with Pittsburgh. Anyway, not sure why nobody wanted him. Defense? Bad breath? Not sure the story there. Made the All-Star team in 1982 but was done by age 31.

Ellis Valentine 5.5 (16.9)
Hit .289/.330/.489, 25 home runs, 35 doubles, won a Gold Glove thanks to his cannon arm. Part of the young Expos outfield with Andre Dawson and Warren Cromartie. Hit in the face by a pitch on May 30, 1980. They say he was never the same again ... except after returning in July he hit .331 the rest of the season. Injuries and drug and alcohol problems cut his career short after that, although he straightened himself out after his retirement from baseball.

Robin Yount: 5.0 (77.1)
Was just 22, but already in his fifth season in the majors after starting for Milwaukee at age 18. Would of course go on to win two MVP Awards and get elected to the Hall of Fame. Now, looking at his season you probably wouldn't have projected him as a Hall of Famer -- he hit .293 with nine home runs and 147 hits in 123 games. But a 22-year-old with ability can sometimes take a big leap forward and Young did that in 1980.

Chet Lemon 4.9 (55.3)
A superb defender in center, although he never won a Gold Glove Award. He hit .304/.386/.482 with the White Sox from 1978 to 1981, but after a trade to the Tigers for Steve Kemp never hit .300 again, even though he was just 27 at the time of the trade. He ranks eighth among position players in WAR during his 1977-1984 peak. Pretty underrated player.

Andre Dawson 4.7 (64.4)
In his second season, hit .253/.299/.442, but with 25 home runs, 28 steals and good defense. Here's a question: At that moment in time, would you rather have had Dawson or Valentine? Valentine had the better season and both were 23, but Dawson was faster and more athletic. Neither walked much, although Dawson struck out a lot more. I think it would have been a tough call.

Eddie Murray 4.3 (68.2)
Hit .283 with 27 home runs and 70 walks at age 22, good enough to finish eighth in the AL MVP vote.

Lou Whitaker: 3.8 (74.8)
The AL Rookie of the Year in 1978, he's a slam-dunk Hall of Famer if you go strictly by WAR. Hit just 12 home runs his first four seasons but eventually topped 20 four times. Effective enough into his late 30s that even in his final year he posted an .890 OPS in a platoon role with the Tigers.

Terry Puhl: 3.7 (28.4)
He was just 21 and hit .289 for the Astros with 32 steals, a few walks and was solid defensively. Never developed too much beyond that -- hitting home runs in the Astrodome was near impossible in those days anyways -- but he was a prototypical Astros outfielder of that period with good speed and the ability to hit for average.

Lee Mazzilli: 3.3 (15.4)
A pretty good player from 1978 to 1980, when he was the toast of a bad Mets franchise -- hailing from Brooklyn made him even more popular with the Mets' faithful. Hit a big home run in the 1979 All-Star Game. Started suffering back and elbow injuries and was never the same, although the Mets squeezed Ron Darling and Walt Terrell from the Rangers in a steal of a deal.

Steve Kemp: 3.3 (19.5)
Good hitter whose career was eventually derailed by injuries. The 1978 Tigers had Thompson, Whitaker and Kemp, plus 20-year-old Alan Trammell, 22-year-old Lance Parrish and 23-year-old Jack Morris. They won 86 games. It took them only six years from there to win a World Series.

Ozzie Smith 3.2 (76.5)
He hit .258 and swiped 40 bases to finish second in the NL Rookie of the Year vote to Bob Horner (who went straight from Arizona State to the majors). Ozzie's bat stalled for his next three years in San Diego before a trade to St. Louis -- and turf -- helped him become respectable at the plate.

Garry Templeton 3.0 (27.7)
Most career hits through age-24 season since 1970: Yount, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Cesar Cedeno, Edgar Renteria, Roberto Alomar, Miguel Cabrera, Templeton.

So that's the 14. It doesn't even include Trammell (2.8 WAR), Paul Molitor (2.7) or Carney Lansford (2.6).

You still hear a lot that players are rushed to the majors these days. There's no evidence this is actually true. In 1978, there were 21 players who were 23 or younger and batted at least 500 times and 27 who batted at least 300. In 2012, those figures were 14 and 20. In 1978, 28 pitchers 23 or younger reached 100 innings compared to 12 last year. There are reasons for this -- more guys go to college now (1978 was right before the boom in college baseball), some guys are now held back in the minors to save on service time, innings are limited and so on. But it's also because the talent level is a little higher than it was 35 years ago; there's less room for a 21-year-old kid to play regularly these days.

Not all these kids today will turn into stars ... but four of those 14 from 1978 did turn into Hall of Famers.
Eric Karabell and myself talked about this briefly on the Baseball Tonight podcast, but no managers have been fired this season; the last time we went an entire season without a firing was 2006. Last year, only two managers were fired during the season -- Brad Mills of the Astros and Manny Acta of the Indians (he was canned with six games remaining).

At this point, it seems unlikely anybody gets fired. But that doesn't mean some guys won't be on the hot seat at season's end. We know Davey Johnson isn't going to return as Nationals' manager, but here are five guys who may need a strong finish to save their jobs:

Eric Wedge, Mariners
Wedge suffered a minor stroke in late July and is currently away from the team as he seeks medical advice and treatment, and while we hope he returns to good health, his situation is precarious regardless of his health. The Mariners had hoped to crack .500 this year but the team's 54-63 record means that's unlikely to happen. Wedge may take the fall for the failures of youngsters Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero. Considering the contracts of Wedge and GM Jack Zduriencik both expire after this season, it could be a completely new regime in Seattle next year.

Mike Scioscia, Angels
He's signed through 2018 at $5 million a year, with an opt-out clause after 2015, so he seems safe. On the other hand, it's been two straight hugely disappointing seasons for the Angels and this will now be four straight seasons without making the playoffs despite some of the highest payrolls in the majors.

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Which manager is most likely to not be brought back for 2014?

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Ron Roenicke, Brewers
He was second in the NL Manager of the Year voting as a rookie skipper in 2011, but the Brewers' downward slide from division champ to division chump could spell the end of his stay if the Brewers decide to eat his 2014 salary.

Charlie Manuel, Phillies
Not many believe Manuel will return next year, given his age (he turns 70 in January), the Phillies' record and his expiring contract. Third-base coach Ryne Sandberg is the apparent manager-in-waiting, so it seems more a matter if Manuel will retire or just not have his contract renewed. In other words, don't expect him to be "fired."

Dusty Baker, Reds
Baker signed a two-year extension last October, but does that mean he's safe? While the Reds will almost certainly make the playoffs, it will likely be as a wild card and not division winner. Another playoff trip that falls short of the NLCS or World Series could lead GM Walt Jocketty to making a change.


Wins still matter. Well, of course wins matter, you know that. That's why we play the game. I mean wins for pitchers still matter in things such as Cy Young or MVP votings.

Which gets us to Clayton Kershaw.

With about 50 games remaining, the National League MVP race is as wide open as we've seen in years. Andrew McCutchen may be the favorite right now, but he's not an on-paper landslide candidate just yet as he's on pace to drive in fewer than 100 runs (MVP voters love RBIs) and voters often overlook defensive value. Yadier Molina was a strong candidate until his recent knee injury. Joey Votto has the sabermetric numbers but not the RBIs. Paul Goldschmidt has the RBIs but the Diamondbacks may not make the playoffs. Carlos Gomez may have been the best all-around player in the league so far but players from losing teams rarely win MVP awards (the last one was Alex Rodriguez in 2003).
[+] EnlargeClayton Kershaw
Jeff Curry/Getty ImagesTake a pitcher seriously as an MVP candidate? In Clayton Kershaw's case, absolutely.

So, Kershaw. Only one starting pitcher in the past 25 years has won the MVP award, Justin Verlander in 2011, and he won 24 games. As dominant as Kershaw has been with that fancy 1.91 ERA, he has only 10 wins. Not his fault, of course. On Tuesday, he pitched six solid innings against the Cardinals; not a classic Kershaw effort, but he gave up just two runs, leaving in the seventh when Don Mattingly pinch-hit for him with a runner on first base and one out, removing Kershaw after just 90 pitches. I thought it was an inning early to hit for him; Kershaw was working on five days of rest, he'd thrown just 97 pitches his previous start, the Dodgers were down just one run, and it wasn't really that high leverage of a scoring situation. Anyway, Kershaw left trailing 2-1 and ended up with the loss as the Cardinals won 5-1.

That's now seven games this year in which Kershaw has allowed two runs or fewer and not earned a win. He has no wins in any starts in which he has allowed three or more runs. Compare that to, say, Detroit's Max Scherzer, who has five wins when allowing three or more runs.

Anyway, my argument is this: Ignore Kershaw's 10-8 record. He not only should be the Cy Young favorite right now, he should also be in the MVP discussion.

His chances, however, are probably slim. As we break down the NL MVP race, consider the different types of MVP winners.

The RBI Guy
Recent examples: Ryan Howard, Phillies, 2006; Justin Morneau, Twins 2006.

The first stat column many voters usually turn to is the RBI column. It’s why leadoff hitters or No. 2 hitters rarely win the award. Even more than his Triple Crown, it’s why Miguel Cabrera beat out Mike Trout last year. Even though the stat is team- and lineup-dependent, the RBI altar is still a popular place to worship.

Howard led the NL with 149 RBIs and, even though the Phillies missed the playoffs, he beat out Albert Pujols of the division-winning Cardinals with 20 first-place votes to Pujols' 12. Pujols beat out Howard in Wins Above Replacement, 8.5 to 5.2. Howard also led the NL in RBIs in 2008 and 2009 and finished second and third, respectively, in the voting.

Morneau finished second in the AL in RBIs but was named MVP even though he ranked just 23rd among AL position players in WAR. Teammate Joe Mauer was more valuable but had fewer RBIs.

Helps/hurt: This is the big advantage for Goldschmidt. He leads the NL in RBIs with 27 more than McCutchen, 35 more than Molina and 37 more than Votto.

The Best Player On a Team That Made the Playoffs Guy
Recent examples: Joey Votto, Reds, 2010; Ryan Braun, Brewers, 2011.

Votto and Pujols had basically identical numbers, so it should have at least been a toss-up. But the Reds made the playoffs, the Cardinals didn’t, and Votto collected 31 of 32 first-place votes. Braun beat out Matt Kemp in 2011 because the Brewers made the playoffs and the Dodgers didn’t.

Helps/hurt: Big advantage here for McCutchen, as most of the other leading position player candidates via WAR are on non-contenders: Carlos Gomez, David Wright, Carlos Gonzalez, Buster Posey. Plus, the Pirates are a surprise playoff team, which is kind of like earning extra credit.

The Out-of-Nowhere Surprise Guy
Recent example: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox, 2008; Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners, 2001.

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Predict: Who will win the NL MVP Award?

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The voters love this kind of player, especially if he’s small and scrappy. Pedroia had won Rookie of the Year honors but certainly nobody would have projected him as an MVP candidate heading into 2008. Pedroia was actually a good choice in a year when no player had statistical dominance, but his surprise season pushed him over the top. Same thing with Ichiro in his rookie year. Teammate Bret Boone was probably the better choice but he couldn’t match Ichiro in surprise factor.

Helps/hurt: This would normally help Gomez, but the not-playing-for-a-playoff-team factor trumps the surprise factor. Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig could be helped here, as everyone figured Ramirez was on the decline and Puig would spend the season in the minors.

The Hot in September Guy
Recent example: Vladimir Guerrero, Angels, 2004.

This is often a decisive factor for voters, who have determined that a win in September counts more than a win in April, and thus helping your team in September is better than helping your team in April. Guerrero ranked sixth among AL position players in WAR but hit .363 with 11 home runs in September and the Angels beat out the A’s by one game to win the West. Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were 2-3-4 in the voting with similar offensive numbers but the Yankees and Red Sox cruised into the playoffs. In an otherwise close MVP race, a big September can push a player over the top (see also: Chipper Jones, 1999; Jason Giambi, 2000).

Helps/hurt: To be determined. Keep in mind, however, this only helps guys who are in a tight race. Freddie Freeman could have a monster final two months but it doesn’t really matter because the Braves already have a huge lead in the NL East.

The Momentum Guy
Recent example: Justin Verlander, Tigers, 2011.

This is when groupthink starts to develop and that player rolls to the MVP award. Verlander went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and became the first starting pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986 to win the MVP. Baseball-Reference.com values him at 8.4 WAR; a great season, no doubt. But B-R rates 28 other pitcher-seasons at 8.5 WAR or better since 1987, and none of those guys won MVP awards. Only one of them (Randy Johnson in 2002) won 24 games, and he finished seventh in the voting. Behind the RBI guys. It's hard for a pitcher to get that momentum vote, but it happened with Verlander.

Helps/hurt: Kershaw isn’t going to win 20 games, let alone 24. If I had to predict, McCutchen will probably be the momentum guy. Everyone loves the Pirates' story and that will help McCutchen. But if Ramirez or Puig keep going -- despite missing two months -- they could be sneaky candidates.

The We Can’t Give the Damn Thing to Willie Mays Every Year Guy
(Also applied in various eras to Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols.)

Recent example: Jimmy Rollins, Phillies, 2007.

Rollins did have an excellent season at 6.0 WAR, but he also led the NL in outs made, which is a pretty amazing feat for an MVP.

Helps/hurt: Votto is the guy who has won before, but since he’s having just another Joey Votto year, he's probably a long shot.

The Glue Guy
Recent example: Buster Posey, Giants, 2012.

This is a guy with something that goes beyond the stats: leadership, toughness, recovery from horrific injury, you name it. The all-time glue guy MVP was probably Kirk Gibson of the Dodgers in 1988.

Helps/hurt: Definitely Molina, although he needs to get healthy soon and back in the lineup.

The Best Player in the League Guy
Recent example: Mike Trout, Angels, 2012.

Oh, wait ...

Helps/hurt: This may be the strongest argument for Kershaw. Who is the best player in the National League? The one guy you would build a team around for 2013? I believe that's Mr. Kershaw. And that's the MVP.

(Tip to DJ Gallo for the idea.)

Best deadline deal ever: Brewers

July, 19, 2013
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Throughout July we're going to present 30 deals in 30 days: the best trade deadline deal ever made by each team. We've covered the AL East, NL East and AL Central so far, and are now on the NL Central.

THE TEAM: Milwaukee Brewers

THE YEAR: 2008

THE SITUATION: After several years of growth for their young core, the Brewers had finally put themselves in position to end a 26-year postseason drought. On July 7, they were nine games over .500 and only four games behind the division-leading Chicago Cubs. However, the starting rotation desperately needed an upgrade. Yovani Gallardo suffered an early-season injury, and the back end of the rotation was filled with the likes of Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra and Seth McClung.

THE TRADE: The Brewers had developed a reputation among the fan base as a farm system for big-market organizations. They didn't bring in elite talent. Instead, they bartered it away to maintain their small payroll. But on July 7, general manager Doug Melvin signaled to the fans and the broader baseball landscape that the Brewers were ready to seriously compete on the national stage. He acquired the best player available on the trade market, left-hander CC Sabathia, in exchange for a package of prospects headlined by first baseman Matt LaPorta (the seventh overall draft pick in 2007). The Brewers also sent outfielder Michael Brantley, left-hander Zach Jackson and right-hander Rob Bryson to Cleveland.

THE AFTERMATH: It's almost impossible to overstate the impact Sabathia had on the Brewers in the second half of the 2008 season. It felt as if he single-handedly carried the team to the postseason. He compiled a 1.65 ERA in 130.2 innings from July 8 through the end of the season. That included seven complete games, three shutouts and three starts on just three days' rest. He also nearly threw a no-hitter against the Pirates on Aug. 31, as the Pirates' only hit came on a controversial non-error on an infield single by Andy LaRoche that was mishandled by Sabathia just to the left of the pitcher's mound. It's still a sore spot among Brewers fans, some of whom still claim it should have been the second no-hitter in franchise history.

On the Indians' end of the trade, the package received for Sabathia can be seen as nothing but a disappointment. LaPorta has spent parts of four seasons in the big leagues, but he owns a career .238/.301/.393 slash line and has a negative career WAR. While Brantley has been a solid contributor for the Indians, he's not the type of elite player an organization strives to acquire in such a high-profile trade.

The Brewers won this trade in every conceivable fashion. They acquired a stud pitcher who carried them to the postseason for the first time in 26 years. The trade served as a wonderful PR move for the organization, and their attendance has since flourished. The Brewers also didn't give up anything significant in the trade, which is even more significant for a small-market organization. Although it's rare a half-season rental goes down as one of the best trades in franchise history, Doug Melvin and the Brewers authored something special at the deadline in July 2008.

--J.P. Breen, Disciples of Uecker

NL players to watch

July, 18, 2013
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Arizona Diamondbacks: Martin Prado

Prado was the key player the Diamondbacks got in return for Justin Upton in a trade with the Braves last offseason. Since playing more or less every day at a number of positions from 2009-12 in Atlanta, Prado posted a 109 adjusted OPS (100 is average). In his first year in Arizona, however, it is a meager 83. The D-Backs expected a lot more from him than they are getting, and if they intend to maintain their lead in the NL West, they will need Prado to bounce back.

Atlanta Braves: B.J. Upton

Before injuries decimated their outfield right before the All-Star break, the Braves were quite fine even with B.J. Upton failing miserably in the first year of his five-year, $75.25 million contract. B.J. himself (strained adductor muscle) joins brother Justin (calf strain), as well as Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Jordan Schafer among key position players who are injured. B.J. can mitigate a lot of that lost offense by recapturing his offensive prowess from his days with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Chicago Cubs: Starlin Castro

The Cubs thought they had one of the league's future stars at shortstop in Castro, but he has significantly regressed in his fourth season in the majors. His OPS is down by more than 120 points, he isn't stealing bases with nearly the same frequency, and his defense has by many accounts gotten worse. He is only 23 years old, but the Cubs signed him through 2019 on a seven-year, $60 million extension. Castro flaming out would be devastating to the restructured Cubs, so he needs to use the second half to put himself back on the map.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips

Phillips may be the team's top RBI guy, but he leaves plenty to be desired offensively. His current .413 slugging percentage is a career low dating back to 2006 when he started playing regularly. While he has hit plenty of home runs (12), he is only sitting on 15 doubles. Additionally, he stole 15 bases in 17 attempts last season, but has stolen only one base in three attempts this year. Phillips would be deserving of the accolades he has received this year if he were to rediscover his power and baserunning skills.

Colorado Rockies: Michael Cuddyer

The Rockies are still in it despite being four games under .500. A big reason they are even where they are is because Cuddyer is having a career year at the age of 34. His current .330 average, .391 on-base percentage and .568 slugging percentage all represent career highs, vastly exceeding his previous career bests. Some of the success is because of his home ballpark, and some of it is because of plain old luck, but the Rockies won't be able to keep up in a mediocre but highly competitive NL West if Cuddyer regresses.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Yasiel Puig

Everything turned around for the Dodgers after Puig made his major league debut June 3. Since then, they have gone 24-15, moving up from fifth place to second place while cutting into their first-place deficit by five games. Puig hit so well in a month-plus (1.038 OPS) that it merited a serious discussion about his inclusion in the All-Star Game. The Dodgers have been ravaged by injuries, particularly in the outfield, including Puig himself battling a sore hip. The Dodgers will need Puig healthy and in top form for the next two and a half months if they have aspirations to take over the NL West.

Miami Marlins: Jose Fernandez

You can watch Giancarlo Stanton, too, and you'll have exhausted all of the reasons to watch the Marlins. True, they have been playing significantly better since June than they did in the first two months, but they're still 18 games out and already making plans for 2014. Fernandez, as you may have seen in the All-Star Game, has electric stuff and at 20 years old, has a bright future as a potential ace ahead of him. Seeing him pitch once every five days is a privilege which fans of many other teams do not have.
Milwaukee Brewers: Carlos Gomez

The 2013 season has been dismal for the Brewers as they are already 18 games under .500 and 19 1/2 games out and in last place in the NL Central. One of the few pleasant surprises, though, has been Gomez. After years of fumbling around as a failed prospect, Gomez decided to toss out years of coaching advice and become a power hitter. It worked. He is setting career highs across the board and along with his great defense and baserunning, is one of the top candidates for the NL MVP award. Gomez, only 27 years old, could brighten things up for Brewers fans by taking home some hardware at the end of the season.

New York Mets: Ike Davis

If it wasn't for B.J. Upton having a terrible year, Davis would have been talked about more as he heads into the second half with an OPS barely above .500. The Mets demoted him to Triple-A Las Vegas to work on his mechanics. Under the tutelage of 51s manager Wally Backman, Davis posted a 1.091 OPS in 21 games, earning a promotion back to the majors July 5. In eight games leading up to the All-Star break, he went back to his old ways, getting only five hits (all singles) in 32 trips to the plate. Davis is only 26 years old, but the Mets can only afford to give him so much rope before they are forced to make a tough decision about his future.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels

The Phillies will likely go into the July 31 trade deadline as buyers, as they are currently only 6 1/2 games out of first place in a very winnable NL East. They may add a center fielder to replace Ben Revere and they may add a reliever to back up Jonathan Papelbon. What they likely will not add is a starter, despite Hamels' very disappointing season in the first year of a six-year, $144 million contract. He leads the NL in losses with 11 and he has a 4.05 ERA. There is some strong evidence that his changeup -- his calling card -- is not the out-pitch it used to be, and he will have to recapture the feel for it if the Phillies want to have a second-half surge.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jeff Locke

There is some solid evidence based on sabermetric defense-independent statistics that a lot of Locke's first-half success is fluky, based heavily on a paltry .228 batting average on balls in play. He has neither the swing-and-miss stuff nor the pristine control emblematic of most pitchers with an ERA in the 2.15 area. A regressing Locke could start another second-half swoon for the Pirates.

San Diego Padres: Everth Cabrera

Cabrera may be one of the most surprising stories of the 2013 season. He was never considered to be a future star, but he is hitting .291 with a NL-leading 34 stolen bases in 42 attempts. Naturally, there is some skepticism about his ability to keep it going over a full season, and carry it over into 2014. Cabrera could assuage a lot of skepticism by maintaining his current level of play over the final 66 games.

San Francisco Giants: Matt Cain

The Giants are in a similar position with Cain that the Phillies are with Hamels. Cain is sitting on a 5.06 ERA in the second year of a six-year, $127.5 million contract. He is only 28 years old, so his 2013 season could very well be a fluke, but his control has been at its worst over the past five years and he has been more homer-prone than at any other point in his career. A rebounding Cain in the second half would mean the Giants remain contenders in the NL West.

St. Louis Cardinals: Chris Carpenter

The Cardinals are really good. They are so good that no one player really strides ahead in terms of importance, not even Adam Wainwright or Yadier Molina. Chris Carpenter, however, is working his way back from back and shoulder issues and made his first rehab start Monday. Getting him back, whether as a starter or a reliever depending on his durability, could give the Cardinals the same boost he gave them at the end of the 2011 season.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg was kept out of the postseason last year as part of a predetermined plan to reduce his innings pitched. The Nationals had reached the playoffs for the first time since moving to Washington, D.C., and for the first time as a franchise since 1981, when they were the Montreal Expos. It seemed as if the assumption was that Strasburg would have plenty more postseasons in which to pitch, including 2013. The Nationals have arguably been baseball's biggest disappointment, but Strasburg can help power them into playing in October with a strong second half.

Bill Baer is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog. He runs the Crashburn Alley blog on the Phillies.
MoRobert Deutsch/USA TODAY SportsMariano Rivera was the man in the spotlight for Tuesday's All-Star Game.
NEW YORK -- Here's a fun piece of All-Star trivia: At 24, Matt Harvey is the youngest pitcher to start an All-Star Game since Dwight Gooden, also of the Mets, who was 23 in 1988.

How Harvey will fare in front of the home fans is one of the big story lines heading into the game. Let's hope he does better than the last pitcher to start at his home ballpark; Roger Clemens of the Houston Astros started in 2004 and allowed six runs in the top of the first inning, including home runs to Manny Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano.

Harvey, 7-2 with a 2.35 ERA, will face off against Detroit Tigers' right-hander Max Scherzer, 13-1 with a 3.19 ERA. As far as historical All-Star matchups go, this one is hard to call considering Harvey's youth. I'd give it a solid A for entertainment value, however, as both are two of the most exciting pitchers to watch, with upper-90s heat.

Pregame introductions
Mets fans don't disappoint, booing loudly when all Braves, Phillies and Cardinals players are introduced, although they do give a nice round of applause to former Met Carlos Beltran. Not that they've forgiven that strikeout to end Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. Many players are wearing bright glow-in-the-dark orange shoes, including Adam Jones and David Wright, leading my colleague Matt Meyers to quip that the Mets should make them their regular shoe color. Why not?

First inning
Top: The AL lineup is pretty lethal, arguably one of the best All-Star starting nines we've seen in years: Mike Trout, Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Jose Bautista, David Ortiz, Adam Jones, Joe Mauer and J.J. Hardy. Maybe not quite what the AL rolled out in 1934 -- eight future Hall of Famers -- but pretty impressive.

Trout leads with a double just inside the first-base bag. In case you've forgotten, Trout is good.

Harvey hits Cano on the kneecap with a 96 mph fastball. Yankees fans just realized their season could get worse. Harvey recovers to strike out Cabrera on a 92 mph slider, but Dustin Pedroia now enters to run for Cano. Can Derek Jeter play second base? Davis pops out to center. Fun factoid No. 2: He bats fourth in this lineup but fifth on his own team. I believe Buck Showalter may be overthinking that one. Anyway, Bautista fans on another slider. Good job by Harvey to escape what could have been a nightmare top of the first.

Also, the conspiracy theorists point out that Harvey is a Scott Boras client and Cano just dropped Boras as his client.

Bottom: The NL lineup has an obvious flaw in that Bruce Bochy decided to hit his worst hitter leadoff, but, hey, the game only determines home-field advantage for the World Series, something Bochy should know a little something about: Brandon Phillips, Carlos Beltran, Joey Votto, David Wright, Carlos Gonzalez, Yadier Molina, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Cuddyer, Bryce Harper. That's right, the Rockies have three players in the starting lineup. They're 46-50.

Scherzer has a 1-2-3 inning. Bochy's secret genius idea to hit Phillips leadoff fails to work.

Second inning
Top: Harvey has a 1-2-3 second inning, including a strikeout of Jones on 98 mph high heat. He leaves to a nice ovation from Mets fans. Job well done, Matt. Now back to your day job -- working for "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon."

Bottom: Well, Chris Sale is on for the AL. Looks like we're going to be treated to a long list of AL relievers later in the game. Brett Cecil! Glen Perkins! Steve Delabar! Greg Holland! What, that doesn't get you excited to watch All-Star baseball? To be fair to Jim Leyland, it's a strategy that could work. Sale mows down the National Leaguers with a nine-pitch inning.

Third inning
Top: Clayton Kershaw on for the NL. He's pretty good, too. He goes 1-2-3. Kershaw or Koufax? I guess Kershaw still has to do it in the World Series. Maybe he will. This year.

Bottom: Sale back in for a second inning! That crafty old fox Leyland! Sale strikes out Tulo, Cuddyer bounces back to the mound and Harper lines out sharply to Cabrera. Twenty-four pitches for Sale, 17 strikes. Nine up, nine down overall. I think you can make an argument that Sale is the best pitcher in the AL. And, no, the White Sox are not going to trade him.

X-rays on Cano a negative. He meets the media outside the AL clubhouse wrapped in 88 pounds of tape and Alex Rodriguez's contract.

Fourth inning
Top: Patrick Corbin of the Diamondbacks enters. All he has to do is face Cabrera, Davis and Bautista. Unfortunately, we don't get to see Kershaw versus Cabrera, which, apologies to Corbin and his family, is what an All-Star Game is supposed to be about. I'll predict this is the inning the AL breaks this 0-0 tie.

Cabrera drills a 1-2 slider to deep right-center for a leadoff double. Davis singles hard off the top of Votto's glove to move Miggy to third and then Bautista delivers the sac fly. Corbin escapes further damages with a 6-3 double play. He's a nice young pitcher and I wasn't trying to be rough on him, but Bochy probably should have called on a right-hander to start the inning with Cabrera leading off.

Bottom: Here comes the King! Felix Hernandez in for the AL and he's very happy that Raul Ibanez and Mike Morse aren't in the outfield behind him.

After leadoff hero Phillips grounds out, Beltran singles past a diving Hardy for the NL's first baserunner. Perfect game foiled. Andrew McCutchen in to pinch run for Beltran. And steals second! Never underestimate Bochy! Votto bounces out so it's up to hometown hero Wright and his magic orange cleats. Wright tops it to third, with Miggy making a nice play to show off his baseball athleticism. I mean, let's not get carried away, that's a play major league third basemen are supposed to make, but it was a nice play.

Fifth inning
Top: Paul Goldschmidt replaces Votto at first base. This is why I thought Goldschmidt should have started at DH. He and Votto have been two of the best hitters in the NL this year. Bochy could have gotten six plate appearances from the two, but now he'll get two from Votto, maybe one from Goldschmidt and maybe one for Allen Craig if he wants to get him in the game as well. Of course, I'm overthinking all this; the managers just want to get everyone in the game, which is understandable.

The AL pushes across another run against Cliff Lee. Adam Jones' orange shoes double to left, Mauer singles on a play Tulowitzki should have/could have made and Hardy's fielder's choice scores the run. At least we won't have the second 1-0 All-Star Game in history (not shockingly, coming in 1968, the Year of the Pitcher).

Bottom: Matt Moore with a quick 1-2-3 bottom of the inning. I think the only ball the NL has hit hard was Harper's lineout to Miggy at third base.

Sixth inning
Top: Glad to see Jose Fernandez of the Marlins get an inning. He's absolutely the real deal, a kid who will start one of these games in the future. He strikes out Pedroia and Davis around a Cabrera pop fly. Impressive. Note that Leyland left in Cabrera and Davis for a third plate appearances. Absolutely the right move considering they've been the two best hitters in the majors. Think somebody wants home-field advantage ... you know, just in case a certain team gets there.

Seventh inning
Top: David Wright still in the game. Starters aren't allowed to play seven innings! Bochy obviously wants to get him a third at-bat, but it also makes sense from a strategic standpoint. Pedro Alvarez is the backup third baseman and if Bochy brings him in, it would give Leyland a nice matchup of using lefties Glen Perkins or Brett Cecil to face Alvarez and Domonic Brown (now batting fifth), neither of whom hit lefties very well.

Bottom: Manny Machado with a nice play off a tricky hop to throw out Paul Goldschmidt from foul territory. Then the fun starts. David Wright singles off Greg Holland, so Leyland brings in Cecil to face Brown. If Bochy had some guts here, he’d pinch hit Allen Craig, but that kind of move doesn’t happen in an All-Star Game. Brown whiffs.

Leyland brings in Steve Delabar to face Buster Posey. Delabar was homer-prone last year (12) -- a reason the Mariners traded him to the Blue Jays -- but he has allowed just one this season. He fans Posey on a 2-2 slider. Good job, Leyland. If you have 13 pitchers, may as well use them. He still has Justin Masterson and Chris Tillman in reserve if the game goes extra innings, plus relievers Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins and Mariano Rivera.

Eighth inning
Top: Tweet of the day from Sam Mellinger: Salvador Perez’s hit was the first by a Royal in the All-Star Game since Bo Jackson in 1989 (although not his home run; that came in the first inning and he singled in the fourth). Jason Kipnis then doubles in Perez and it's 3-0 AL.

Bottom: Rivera in for the bottom of the eighth. Apparently, Leyland is worried that if the other relievers blow the lead this inning, Rivera wouldn’t get in the game. And a goosebump moment as the AL All-Stars remain off the field as Rivera begins his warm-ups; the most universally respected and beloved player in the game. Rivera gets a little weepy as the crowd gives him a big ovation and he doffs his cap.

By the way … Torii Hunter replaces Trout in center. He’s played one game there since 2010. Questionable move. Would Hunter really be crushed if he didn’t get into this game?

Anyway, beautiful pitching from Rivera, that effortless delivery that we’ll remember long after his retirement. He gets hugs from the entire AL team as he heads to the dugout. As J.J. Hardy said yesterday, "It’s great just to share a locker room with him for one day. It’s something I’ll tell my grandchildren about."

Ninth inning
Top: Prince Fielder leads off with a triple, but is stranded at third. (Yes, a triple.)

Bottom: Joe Nathan on for the save, the AL still up 3-0. No matter what happens, I’m pretty sure the most discussed aspect of the game will be Leyland’s decision to use Rivera in the eighth instead of the ninth. Me? I’ll just remember him warming up, a singular man in the middle of a baseball field, throwing a baseball.

(Nathan got the save and Rivera was named MVP. The AL wins with a three-hit shutout. Home-field advantage to the Tigers … or the A’s … or the Red Sox … or maybe, miracle of all miracles, the Yankees and Rivera.)

Today's scrubs may be tomorrow's All-Stars

July, 11, 2013
Jul 11
2:09
PM ET
On Monday night, Carlos Gomez jumped, stuck his glove over Miller Park's center field fence, and pulled back what would have been a go-ahead home run from Reds first baseman Joey Votto. Instead, it was the third out in the ninth inning. Francisco Rodriguez got the save and the Brewers happily celebrated as Gomez jogged towards his teammates from the warning track.

According to FanGraphs, Gomez has been the National League's best player thus far, compiling 4.9 wins above replacement thanks to an .889 OPS, that great defense in center and 21 steals in 24 attempts. At one time, he was the No. 3 prospect in the Mets' system according to Baseball America, but the Mets included him in a package they sent to the Twins to acquire ace lefty Johan Santana.

Playing every day for the Twins in 2008 and '09, Gomez struggled at the plate. In 963 plate appearances, he posted a .645 OPS with a staggering 214 strikeouts and 47 walks, a ratio in excess of 4.5. His defense was great at times, but the Twins couldn't justify keeping his weak bat in the lineup. After the 2009 season, they traded Gomez to the Milwaukee Brewers for shortstop J.J. Hardy.

Though he missed some time between 2010-12 with injuries, Gomez still did not live up to the lofty expectations set for him when he ascended through the Mets' system. The Brewers used him as a fourth outfielder behind Nyjer Morgan in 2011, and splitting time with Norichika Aoki to start the 2012 season, primarily platooning him against left-handers. By the end of July, though, Gomez was back playing every day and he finally showed flashes of the player dominating the league presently. Between July 16 and the end of the 2012 regular season, Gomez posted an .812 OPS with 14 home runs in 273 plate appearances. He stole 26 stolen bases in 29 attempts.

In an article for Sports On Earth, Howard Megdal noted how Gomez himself decided to make a change. He discarded years of advice from the plethora of coaches and decided to try to hit home runs, rather than put the ball on the ground. "I always expected myself to be a three-hole hitter," Gomez said. "Thirty-plus home runs. That's how I saw myself ... But all the people wanted [was] to take advantage of was my speed. I mean, better late than never."

Gomez, still just 27 years old, is just the latest in a surprisingly long line of players who are now at the top of the game after having been given up on by their former teams. Jose Bautista went from club to club, never finding the kind of success that parlays into a starting role. He went to the Blue Jays in 2008, changed his swing, and the rest is history. Edwin Encarnacion has a similar story; he hovered around the league average offensively, came to the Blue Jays in 2009, and turned into one of the game's premier power hitters. Domonic Brown was nearly given up on by the Phillies organization just a few years after they refused to include him in a trade for Roy Halladay, and now he sits with the second-most home runs in the National League.

Perhaps the best example is Chris Davis. Davis tore up opposing pitching while in the minors with the Rangers between 2006-08. In 2008, he reached Triple-A at the age of 22, and he hit 23 home runs in 329 trips to the plate while posting a 1.029 OPS. He earned a call up to the majors at the end of June, and hit 17 home runs with an .880 OPS.

He was asked to replicate that in 2009 at the big league level, but he couldn't. Opposing pitchers had a book on him and his approach at the plate wasn't major league quality. While he was able to muscle out 21 home runs, he struck out 150 times and walked only 24 times in 391 plate appearances. The Rangers kept him in Triple-A for most of 2010 and he performed well; in three different stints in the majors that year, however, he looked completely lost.

At the trade deadline in 2011, the Rangers needed to add some pieces for a postseason run so they traded Davis to the down-and-out Baltimore Orioles with Tommy Hunter for reliever Koji Uehara and a small amount of cash. The Rangers lost the World Series in seven games and, they would eventually find out, they also lost an impact bat.

Davis flourished with the Orioles. Last season, he hit 33 home runs with a .827 OPS. This year, were it not for Miguel Cabrera hitting at an historic level, Davis would be baseball's best hitter. He has hit the most home runs in baseball thus far with 33 and he has the highest slugging percentage with a Bondsian .690. He is walking more, striking out less, and making good contact on seemingly everything. And he's only 27 years old.

The moral of the story is not to give up on players with a surfeit of talent but a deficit of results. Patience is often rewarded in baseball. And it is a never-ending cycle. Right now, there are struggling players who have yet to live up to expectations who will eventually be discarded by an impatient, unsatisfied team and picked up by an optimistic team hoping to strike lightning in a bottle.

SportsNation

Which of these young players is the best bet to develop into a future All-Star?

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    24%
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    13%
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    14%
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    30%
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    19%

Discuss (Total votes: 1,307)

Mike Moustakas may be one such player. After hitting 20 home runs last year but posting overall below-average offensive numbers, he has been among the five worst-hitting American Leaguers this year, with only six home runs and a .213 average to his name entering Thursday's game against the Yankees. The Royals are 43-45 and just seven games out of the second wild-card spot. Their offseason trade of Wil Myers to the Rays for James Shields and Wade Davis was a public admission they wanted to compete for the postseason, so it wouldn't be surprising to see them use Moustakas in a trade to bolster the roster for a late-season run.

Lonnie Chisenhall is another. The 24-year-old has posted tremendous minor league numbers and was ranked as the No. 39 overall prospect by Keith Law before the 2011 season. In 542 PAs in the majors, though, he hasn't shown much. The power and plate discipline he showcased in the minors seems to disappear when he faces major league pitching, but the potential is there nonetheless. Since being recalled on June 18, Chisenhall has posted a .772 OPS. That is certainly a small sample, but also a glimmer of hope as well.

Mariners second baseman Dustin Ackley was ranked No. 7 by Law before the 2011 season, but like Chisenhall, has not been able to translate minor league success into major league success. In 1,249 PAs in the big leagues, he has a .650 OPS, including a paltry .533 this year that includes a .209 average. With Triple-A Tacoma -- after getting sent down -- he posted a .947 OPS with more walks (19) than strikeouts (14). He's back with Seattle and now playing outfield.

You can look at Mets first baseman Ike Davis through the same prism. And to the Mets' credit, they have been incredibly patient with him and have been exhausting their options to get him to be an above-average major league contributor. In fact, Davis has a lot in common with Davis, including the tremendous raw power and the high strikeout rate.

As odd as it sounds, some of tomorrow's All-Stars may be found at the bottom of this year's offensive leaderboards. At the same time two years ago, you would never have expected us to be talking about Chris Davis and Gomez as their league's respective most valuable players, but here we are in 2013 doing exactly that. Baseball, it's a funny game that way.

Bill Baer is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog. He runs the Crashburn Alley blog on the Phillies.
The Washington Nationals were supposed to be the best team in baseball, a team that could win 100 games and maybe blow out the rest of the National League. But, you know, that would have been kind of boring, just doing what everyone expected. The fact that the Nationals are now 39-39 after losing 3-2 to the Diamondbacks in 11 innings on Thursday night makes them a more fascinating team to watch the rest of the way. Can they go on a run? Will Bryce Harper have a monster second half once he returns? How good is Anthony Rendon? And so on.

Here is my ranking of all 30 teams. Call it the Fascination Factor. These are the teams that will be the most interesting to watch in the second half.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates
They have to be the story of the season so far, right? A once-proud franchise suffers through a couple of lean years. OK, it was a couple lean decades. They tease fans the past two seasons with exciting first-half runs only to collapse quicker than you can say “John Van Benschoten.” But here they are, tied for the best record in baseball at 48-30, riding a surprisingly strong rotation and deep bullpen. They don’t score many runs but Andrew McCutchen is one of the game’s best all-around players and Starling Marte is one of the game’s most exciting. They called up a rookie starter who just threw a pitch 101 mph.

2. Baltimore Orioles
Watching Manny Machado line doubles all over the ballpark and Chris Davis mashing monstrous home runs makes me happy. And then there’s Adam Jones, who is having one of the more ridiculous seasons I can remember. He has taken “plate discipline” to a whole new level with 65 strikeouts and only eight walks, yet is hitting .297 with 15 home runs. Plus, you know the ninth inning is going be interesting: After losing just one game last season in which they led going into the ninth inning, the Orioles have already lost six this year.

3. Washington Nationals
I still feel like they have a 20-5 run in them and will end up fighting the Braves for the NL East title.

4. St. Louis Cardinals
If you don’t like Adam Wainwright's curveball then go back to watching “Wheel of Fortune.”

5. Detroit Tigers
They get a lot more interesting the closer they fall to the Indians. The fascinating aspect of this team isn’t just Miguel Cabrera's bionic hitting or Max Scherzer's quest to remain unbeaten, but how the Tigers will fare if pushed again in September. On paper, they should blow away the division; but like last year, that might not happen.

6. Los Angeles Dodgers
They’re getting more and more alluring with every Yasiel Puig hit, home run and diving catch. You know, it could happen. And would you want to play a team that could start Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke three times in a five-game series?

7. Oakland A's
How do they do it? Their regular catcher is hitting under .200. Josh Reddick, their best player last year via Baseball-Reference WAR, is hitting .218 with three home runs. Yoenis Cespedes is hitting .225 with an OBP under .300. Chris Young is hitting .188. Brett Anderson has made just five starts. Jarrod Parker got off to a slow start. Their best pitcher is 82-year-old Bartolo Colon. Amazing.

8. New York Yankees
Take away the pinstripes and imagine a team giving regular playing time to Jayson Nix, Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells, past-their-primes Ichiro Suzuki and Travis Hafner, and other no-names like Zoilo Almonte and Alberto Gonzalez. Now imagine that team competing for a playoff berth. Your head just exploded.

9. Cincinnati Reds
Is this Dusty Baker’s last shot for a ring? He signed a two-year extension but if the Reds miss the playoffs or make it and get eliminated in the first round again, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Cincinnati make a move. A quick comment on Joey Votto: Walks are not boring. So there.

10. Atlanta Braves
So many questions: Will B.J. Upton ever hit? Will Justin Upton hit again? Can Evan Gattis do this over the second half? Can the bullpen hold up? Is Jason Heyward a superstar or not? Is Dan Uggla becoming the player most despised by the hometown fans (even though he isn’t as awful as Braves fans think he is)? But here’s the biggest question: Will the Braves finish in first place for the first time since 2005 or win their first playoff series since 2001? OK, maybe that’s two questions.

11. Cleveland Indians
You know, 1948 was a very long time ago.

12. Boston Red Sox
I see the Red Sox as the best team in the AL East, not that they'll cruise to a division title. But things don't really get interesting in Boston until anxiety sets in for Red Sox Nation, so right now I can't rate them higher.

13. Tampa Bay Rays
The little engine that could. If David Price comes back showing his Cy Young form of 2012, Jeremy Hellickson gets turned around, Matt Moore starts throwing more strikes and Wil Myers slugs like a mad man, the Rays could have a fun second half.

14. Toronto Blue Jays
They haven’t made the playoffs since 1993. The only teams with a longer drought: the Royals (1985) and Pirates (1992). They’re back to .500 after that awful start but they’re still in last place. Can they recover and make the playoffs? Mark DeRosa hit cleanup Thursday night, which maybe answers that question.

15. Arizona Diamondbacks
They got grit. And Paul Goldschmidt.

16. Texas Rangers
Don’t get me wrong, they’re a good team and it should be a good race down to the wire between them and the A’s. For the Rangers, however, the storyline doesn’t begin until October: Can they get back to another World Series and finally win the first one in franchise history?

17. San Francisco Giants
Wait ... I thought the Giants just knew how to win.

18. Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout, Mike Trout, Mike Trout. There. I feel better.

19. Colorado Rockies
They were fun for a while and then Troy Tulowitzki got injured and they've gone 4-9 since. Despite having three guys slugging .600 (Tulo, Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer) they're under .500. Which isn't so shocking when you realize they gave 23 starts to Jeff Francis and Jon Garland. By the way, reliever Rex Brothers has allowed one run in 33.1 innings.

20. New York Mets
Matt Harvey pitches every fifth day. And then Zack Wheeler pitches every second fifth day and Giants fans get a little teary-eyed thinking of those two months of Carlos Beltran.

21. Philadelphia Phillies
As Phillies fans can attest, Delmon Young cancels out Domonic Brown.

22. San Diego Padres
Padres fans say the national media never gives them any respect. They’re probably right.

23. Kansas City Royals
I guess I’m supposed to believe, but they’ve hit 43 home runs in 76 games. That might have worked back in the days of Amos Otis and Tom Poquette, but that doesn’t work in 2013.

24. Minnesota Twins
This team is going to be fun to watch ... in a couple years when Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are anchoring the lineup.

25. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have three of the top 19 position players in the National League via Baseball-Reference WAR. And none of them are Ryan Braun. So that part of the team is exciting to watch. The part that includes Yuniesky Betancourt, not so much.

26. Seattle Mariners
There’s always King Felix and at least kids Nick Franklin and Mike Zunino are up and Raul Ibanez is going for the record for most home runs ever by a 41-year-old ... ahh, let's not fool ourselves. This team is awful. It’s slow, unathletic, is missing three-fifths of a rotation, the bullpen has flopped, and manager Eric Wedge keeps saying things like “the Pirates got two-out hits and we didn’t.” Eric, your team doesn’t get hits with no outs or one out, either.

27. Chicago Cubs
Dear Starlin Castro: It’s not too late, but we’re all starting to worry just a bit. I mean, Cubs fans don’t want to compare you to Neifi Perez just yet, but they’re getting there. And that $16 million option in 2020? Yeah, that’s not looking so good right now.

28. Houston Astros
While they might lose 100 games for the third straight season, they’re not as awful as everyone predicted. I’m not sure if that’s a compliment or not. Anyway, if some of their prospects like George Springer and Jonathan Singleton got called up, at least Astros fans could start seeing the future. By the way, Chris Carter is on pace for 221 strikeouts, so he could challenge Mark Reynolds’ single-season record of 223. Joe DiMaggio struck out 220 times in his first eight seasons.

29. Miami Marlins
Confession: The only time I check out the Marlins is when Jose Fernandez is pitching. Even then, I flip channels between half innings. And I feel a little guilty about this because Giancarlo Stanton deserves better.

30. Chicago White Sox
I'll give you Chris Sale, maybe the most underrated starter in the majors. Absolutely electrifying and unique to watch. I will not, however, give you Adam Dunn.
Quick thoughts on Tuesday's slate of games ...
  • The Blue Jays belted three home runs off the Rockies' Jeff Francis (why is he still in their rotation?) in an 8-3 win, their seventh in a row. Now 34-36, the Jays are 8.5 out of first place -- although still in last place in the AL East. Can they really climb back into the playoff race? Well, let's do some quick math. With 92 games left, the Jays will have to go 58-34 the rest of the way to win 90, a .630 winning percentage (or 102-win pace over 162). Jose Reyes has begun his rehab in Class A, so he'll be back soon. Brandon Morrow suffered the same forearm soreness in his rehab start on Monday so his return remains down the road. Currently, we have the Jays' odds of making the playoffs at 17 percent; the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds Report had the Jays at six percent before Tuesday. While catching Boston will be difficult (if Boston plays .500 ball, the Jays have to win 17 more in a row to catch them), I think the Jays can make it an interesting summer in Toronto and get in the wild-card hunt.
  • Here's Adam Rubin's report on Zack Wheeler's impressive major league debut for the Mets. Wheeler or Gerrit Cole? My quick impression after watching both debuts is that I'd take Wheeler first, although one follower on Twitter suggested Wheeler's box score line looked like a Daniel Cabrera line: five walks, seven strikeouts. He certainly has to improve his command but he has a lot of life and run on his fastball. Cole's heater, on the other hand, is very straight, one reason he has just three strikeouts through his first two starts. Anyway, one or two starts don't mean anything, other than at least Mets fans two days a week the rest of the year to watch exciting baseball. Here's a good breakdown on Cole from Andrew Shen of Beyond the Box Score.
  • Speaking of the Mets, Matt Harvey was dominant in the first game of their doubleheader sweep of the Braves, taking a no-hitter into the seventh before tiring. He struck out Jason Heyward in the first on a pitch clocked at 100.1 mph -- the fastest pitch by a starting pitcher this year.
  • The legend of Paul Goldschmidt continues to grow as he hit a walk-off homer to lift the Diamondbacks to a 3-2 win over the Marlins. That's five go-ahead home runs in the eighth inning or later. That's how you win MVP Awards.
  • Nice win for the Pirates, a 4-0 shutout of the Reds to hand Mat Latos his first loss. The Pirates are scraping together a rotation right now with A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald and Jeanmar Gomez all on the DL, but Charlie Morton, in his second start since returning from elbow surgery, stepped up with 5.1 scoreless innings. It was the Pirates' MLB-leading 12th shutout. By the way, over the last calendar year, Pedro Alvarez leads all NL hitters with 33 home runs.
  • Mark Simon wrote about Carlos Gomez's ability to go back on balls last week. He did this Tuesday in Houston, running up that ridiculous hill to make one of the great catches of the season.
  • Jonny Gomes hit a dramatic walk-off homer to give the Red Sox a doubleheader sweep over the Rays. Don't miss the punt he gives his helmet as he trots home.
  • Tough loss for the Padres to see their seven-game winning streak end as the Giants scored twice in the bottom of the eighth to win 5-4. Juan Perez, filling in for the injured Angel Pagan, had two big plays, throwing a runner out at home and hitting the go-ahead single.
  • Yu Darvish is winless over his past six starts -- but he has a 2.66 ERA. Run support, my friends.
  • Another rough night for Josh Hamilton in the Angels' 3-2, 10-inning loss to Seattle. He went 0-for-5, grounded into three double plays, and struck out with runners in scoring position in the seventh and ninth. He's hitting .213/.269/.388 and over a calendar year is hitting .235 with a .302 OBP.

You can't hit it over Carlos Gomez's head

June, 12, 2013
Jun 12
12:18
PM ET

Did you get a chance to see the catch Brewers center fielder Carlos Gomez made to rob John Mayberry of a homer on Saturday?

This kind of play has become a Gomez specialty. He currently leads center fielders in both advanced fielding stats -- Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating.

We have tools that allow us to dissect video-reviewed data of batted-ball locations. They aren't perfect, but they allow us to generate images such as this above, which looks at how Gomez fares against batted balls that stay in the park, have an estimated distance of about 365 feet or longer, and are hit to what we would call "dead center."

Gomez has been on the field for 35 balls that met our criteria. He's caught 34 of them (97 percent).

The average major-league team converts 78 percent of those balls into outs.

The upper-end teams have catch rates of 90 percent or better on these balls, though those will likely dip a little bit as the sample size gets bigger (last year's leaders were the White Sox at 88 percent and the Angels at 86 percent).

The lower-end teams are catching those balls at a 70 percent rate or worse, with the bottom two being the Blue Jays (65 percent) and Phillies (57 percent).

The Phillies rated last in 2012 as well and brought in a new center fielder in Ben Revere. But that hasn't worked. The Phillies' version of the spray chart above is dotted with 15 hits. That's a far reach from Gomez's near-perfection through 62 games.

Speaking of reach, the only ball Gomez missed was this one, hit by Adrian Gonzalez ... and he came oh-so-close to snagging it.

For those who might argue that we were ultra-selective or not be precise in our readings, whether Gomez is exactly 34 of 35 in catching these balls isn't the point we're going for.

There are a couple of hits slightly to the left of the left-most out in that image. But there also more outs. Move our measurement area slightly to the right and there are a lot more outs. Same if we move it a little closer to home plate.

The point is this: Gomez is going back and getting balls, particularly those right over his head, like no one else.

"He's fantastic," said Baseball Tonight analyst Doug Glanville, who pointed to Gomez being the rare outfielder who can net 400 putouts in a season, as he did in 2008. "You just don't get the full scope of what he can do until he's out there every day."

Gomez hasn't necessarily always been this way.

A major league scout we exchanged e-mails with described Gomez as "terrific and reckless in the same sentence. ... Every play has to be a Web Gem. But he is a guy who can make it look easy on any given day. He just has to stay within himself."

One of the things that has helped Gomez is how deep Brewers manager Ron Roenicke plays his outfielders, particularly Gomez and right fielder Norichika Aoki, who have combined for 28 Defensive Runs Saved.

Scott Spratt from Baseball Info Solutions did his own dive into the numbers and found that the Brewers have the lowest opponents' BABIP in the majors on balls hit to the deepest parts of the ballpark, regardless of whether they were hit to left, center or right (the Braves and Pirates rank 2-3).

Their rating system has a top-four on deep balls of Craig Gentry, Coco Crisp, Gomez and Brett Gardner. Gomez drops a hair because their look encompasses balls hit to left-center and right-center, not just straightaway.

The Brewers may not be winning regularly because of their outfield defense, but Gomez has performed at the highest level. He tops all major league position players in WAR, and can point to images like the one atop the story as one of many reasons why.
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