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So we ended up with the quite the finish here. Lots of bad baseball down the stretch. Lots. Remember: The top 10 picks are protected if you sign a free agent who is given a qualifying offer. Plus, the worse you finish in the overall standings the more money you get to spend in the draft. Yay, incentivized losing!

1. Astros: 51-111
Just in case they were worried about the Marlins catching them, they lost their final 15 games to ensure the No. 1 pick for the third draft in a row.

2. Marlins: 62-100
Kudos to Henderson Alvarez for his final-day no-hitter. In fact, the Marlins swept the Tigers in that season-ending series and won five of their final six, allowing just seven runs over those six games.

3. White Sox: 63-99
Tried hard to catch the Marlins, going 7-21 in September and losing five of their final six. Went 2-17 against the Indians, although no truth to the rumor that the Indians will share their playoff shares with the White Sox.

4. Cubs: 66-96
Ended up tied with the Twins, but get the higher pick based on 2012 record. And boy did they fight hard to get that fourth pick. Lost six of their final seven and 12 of their final 15.

5. Twins: 66-96
Lost 10 of final 11. Too bad they beat the Tigers in extra innings on Sept. 23 or they would be drafting one slot higher. In Sunday's finale, ensured defeat with three errors. In the sixth inning. Nice job, Twins!

6. Mariners: 71-91
Went 6-14 over their final 20 games to slide from a bubble team securely into a top-10 position. Lost their final eight extra-inning games, proving there's an art to successful tanking. Namely: A bad bullpen helps.

7. Phillies: 73-89
It looked like they would jump out of the bottom 10 but then lost nine of their final 11. No wonder Ryne Sandberg got the job for next year! The final game was huge, as the Phillies came up big with a 12-5 loss to the Braves.

Now, this is where things get really interesting. We had a four-way tie for spots 8 through 11. The tiebreaker is 2012 record. So ...

8. Rockies: 74-88
Those two one-run wins over the Dodgers on Saturday and Sunday didn't help, but the tiebreaker gives them the edge. Not that they'll be pursuing Robinson Cano or anything.

9. Blue Jays: 74-88
How nervous was GM Alex Anthopoulos watching the Jays nearly rally from a 7-0 deficit on Sunday? They did beat the Rays twice on the final weekend but still lost 12 of their final 19.

10. Mets: 74-88
The Mets had the most to lose if they finished out of the top 10, since they presumably could be pursuing some of the big free agents this winter. Luckily the offense came through with three straight 4-2 losses to the Brewers (before winning the season finale 3-2).

11. Brewers: 74-88
Well, this is what a 15-12 record in September will do to you. No Kyle Lohse for the Brewers this offseason!

12. Padres: 76-86
Yes, Padres fans, there were 11 teams worse than yours.

13. Giants: 76-86
The Giants went 10-5 over their final 15 to at least avoid becoming just the second World Series winner (after the 1997 Marlins) to finish in last place the next season. So there's that.

14. Angels: 78-84
A 21-7 stretch in August/September ruined any chance the Angels had of finishing with a top-10 pick. So if they went to throw $250 million at Cano, it will cost them their first-round pick.

I did my American League All-Star team yesterday. Here's my National League squad. A few more tougher calls in the NL.

Catcher: Yadier Molina, Cardinals (.319/.359/.477, 12 HR, 80 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Two questions: Is Molina a legitimate MVP candidate and how will he fare in the voting? Sure, he's a strong candidate, although I have Andrew McCutchen as my clear No. 1 guy. Due to his relatively low runs plus RBIs total (he has 68 runs scored), Molina would certainly be an unconventional MVP candidate. Wins Above Replacement accounts for some of Molina's defense -- such as throwing out runners -- but can't measure some of the intangibles, such as the confidence he gave to the young St. Louis starters. Molina's offense numbers are similar to last year, when he finished fourth in voting, so I wouldn't be surprised if he jumps up to second this season.

First base: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks (.302/.401/.553, 36 HR, 124 RBI, 7.1 WAR)
Goldschmidt or Joey Votto? It's not quite as simple as Goldschmidt's 51-RBI advantage as both put up similar numbers otherwise, with Votto having the edge in on-base percentage (.436) and Goldschmidt in power (36 home runs to 24). Both were extremely durable -- Goldschmidt has missed two games, Votto zero -- and solid defenders. The one big difference is an advanced metric called Win Probability Added, a category Goldschmidt led all NL position players in, thanks in part to his .350 average in high-leverage situations and nine home runs in late and close situations (second-most in the majors to Chris Davis). I'm confident Goldschmidt is the right choice here.

Second base: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals (.320/.394/.484, 11 HR, 78 RBI, 6.7 WAR)
An easy choice as Carpenter leads the NL in runs, hits and doubles while ranking in the top 10 in numerous other categories. I'm guessing Molina garners more MVP support, but Carpenter is just as worthy to finish in the top five.

Third base: David Wright, Mets (.308/.393/.516, 18 HR, 57 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Pedro Alvarez leads the NL with 36 home runs and has knocked in 100 but a .233 average and sub-.300 OBP means he created a ton of outs to generate those runs. Ryan Zimmerman waited too long to start hitting. Chris Johnson hit .321 for the Braves. None were above-average defenders. So almost by default I'll go with Wright, who easily has the highest WAR even though he missed 50 games.

Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons, Braves (.244/.292/.390, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 6.5 WAR)
I've been raving about Simmons all season so I can't change now. Troy Tulowitzki was great once again and relatively healthy (125 games), although he hit 61 points higher at home. Hanley Ramirez was the best on a per at-bat basis but played just 86 games. Ian Desmond flew under the radar year for the Nationals. But Simmons is my guy, even with that sub-.300 OBP. His defense was that good.

Left field: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies (.302/.367/.591, 26 HR, 70 RBI, 5.1 WAR)
Starling Marte had an excellent all-around season (41 steals, great defense) for the Pirates and Matt Holliday was solid for the Cardinals. Gonzalez's season was similar to Wright's -- if he'd remained healthy, he'd be the obvious choice, but he missed 50 games. Unlike Tulo, he actually hit better on the road, so it's not a Coors-inflated season. I'll go with CarGo just barely over Marte.

Center field: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (.317/.404/.508, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 8.2 WAR)
Carlos Gomez would be an MVP candidate if he had better teammates. Shin-Soo Choo gave the Reds exactly what they needed, a leadoff hitter who got on base. But this was McCutchen's season as he often carried a mediocre Pittburgh offense and hit .339/.441/.561 in the second half, helping keep the Pirates in the division title race. He's the likely MVP winner and not a "weak" MVP, as some have speculated. His WAR is higher than the past three NL MVPs, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and Votto. He may not drive in 100 runs or score 100 (he's at 97), but it was the best all-around season in the league.

Right field: Jayson Werth, Nationals (.318/.398/.532, 25 HR, 82 RBI, 4.8 WAR)
A loaded position, and that's with Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton missing significant time. Jay Bruce, Yasiel Puig, Hunter Pence and Marlon Byrd all have their supporters (and Gerardo Parra leads in WAR). The knock against Werth, like Wright and Gonzalez, is that he missed significant time (129 games). But Bruce has a .329 OBP. Puig didn't get called up until June and Pence's monster September (11 HR, 29 RBI) came after the Giants had long been eliminated and arguably against dubious September pitching.

Starting pitchers: Clayton Kersaw, Dodgers (16-9, 1.83 ERA, 8.0 WAR); Cliff Lee, Phillies (14-8, 2.87 ERA, 7.2 WAR); Jose Fernandez, Marlins (12-6, 2.19 ERA, 6.3 WAR); Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (19-9, 2.94 ERA, 6.2 WAR); Matt Harvey, Mets (9-5, 2.27 ERA, 5.4 WAR)
Oh, Cliff Lee is still good. There were no shortage of top starters in the NL as 18 qualified starters have posted an ERA of 3.25 or under, the most since 17 did it in 1992 and 10 more than last year.

Left-handed setup guy: Luis Avilan, Braves (5-0, 1.55 ERA)
Part of Atlanta's dominant bullpen, Avilan fanned just 38 in 64 innings but allowed a .173 average and just one home run. He gets great movement on his two-seam sinking fastball, resulting in fewer K's but a lot of groundballs. Honorable mention to Pittsburgh's Justin Wilson.

Right-handed setup guy: Mark Melancon, Pirates (3-2, 1.39 ERA)
He had a couple rough outings in September, but was dominant throughout the season, first setting up Jason Grilli and then earning 16 saves when Grilli was injured.

Closer: Craig Kimbrel, Braves (4-3, 50 saves, 1.23 ERA)
He did blow four save chances and wasn't quite as statistically dominant as last season -- and still finished with 1.23 ERA and 50 saves.

Bud Selig has officially announced that he'll step down as commissioner in January 2015. Jerry Crasnick will assess his legacy (hey, if Bowie Kuhn made the Hall of Fame I suspect Selig will eventually as well), but here are five key issues for the next commissioner to address.

1. Instant replay and quality of umpiring

We finally get expanded replay next season, so that should help resolve some of the controversial and blown calls. It remains to be seen how effective and efficient the system will be, but it can be adjusted as necessary. Just as importantly, the new commissioner has to work to improve consistency of ball/strike calls and reduce the episodes of ump rage.

Right now, the best umps (Eric Cooper, Chad Fairchild, Phil Cuzzi) get about 90 percent of ball/strike calls correct, according to our pitch data; the worst umps (Wally Bell, Tim Welke, Kerwin Danley, Jerry Meals) are at 86 percent. That difference may not seem like a lot, but that's a spread of 10 incorrect calls per 250 pitches. Even a 90 percent correct rate means the best umps are missing about 25 to 30 ball/strike calls a game. Maybe the human eye can't do better, but MLB needs to pay its umpire better, and in particular pay minor league umpires a living wage, so you can recruit from a wider field of candidates.

2. To DH or not to DH?

This ridiculousness has gone on too long. You simply can't have one sport with two leagues playing under different rules. The answer seems to be pretty obvious: Get rid of the designated hitter. There were only four full-time DHs this year: David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, Billy Butler and Kendrys Morales. They all batted at least 500 times as a DH. Nobody else even had 300 plate appearances (including Adam Dunn, who played a lot of first base). With so few teams actually using a DH, the resolution should be pretty clear. OK, so Butler is the youngest of those four and signed through 2015. No DH starting in 2016.

3. Oakland and Tampa Bay stadium issues

Look, both organizations have shown they can compete and win in spite of their lousy ballparks and low revenue. Part of the problem is that other teams are tired of propping up the Rays and A's. "The key here is to recognize that without the revenue-sharing dollars, we wouldn't even be able to compete or do what we're doing," Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said in August. "The other owners are looking at this and saying, 'How many years is this going to be? How much money is this going to be to a failing situation?'"

Oakland's problem is more easily solved. The A's want to move to San Jose; the Giants hold territorial rights to Santa Clara County (given to them years ago by the A's). A three-quarters majority vote of all owners can return those rights to the A's, but Selig has refused to call for a vote, wanting unanimity, including the Giants. Well, of course, the Giants would vote against it. The new commish should side with the A's here and get them, literally, out of the sewage.

4. Tanking

I've written about this issue. Buster Olney addressed it the other day. The current collective bargaining agreement makes it beneficial for teams to lose -- either to get a higher draft position (and thus more money to spend in the draft) or finish with one of the 10 worst records and thus have a protected first-round pick when signing free agents. What kind of sport essentially encourages tanking for 10 or more teams?

This season, we'll likely finish with 10 teams and maybe 11 winning 90 games ... and seven to 10 losing 90 games. You don't want to read too much into one season, but it's possible we'll see more seasons like this: Contenders and non-contenders, which makes for a less interesting sport. Back in 2004, only five teams won 90 and six lost 90. That's a healthier sport.

But the draft rules tie into another problem. For the most part, the owners love the new rules and capping the amount teams can spend in the draft. Why give more money to amateurs when you can pocket some of that money instead and buy new leather seats for your private jet? The long-range issue here is obvious: You risk talented athletes choosing other sports as signing bonuses decrease. The new commissioner should find ways to get more athletes playing baseball, rather than potentially pushing them towards a different sport.

5. The schedule

Nobody likes the fact that interleague play is now a constant throughout the season, but that's unavoidable with 15 teams in each league. But the unbalanced schedule creates issues of teams competing for the same thing (a wild-card spot) while playing vastly different schedules.

My own personal pet peeve is that the season drags too long into October. Last year's World Series games in Detroit were played in brutally cold weather. Depending on which teams advance, you're often playing your most important games of the year in your worst weather. The World Series can be as much a test of ability as a test of weather fortitude. There isn't a good solution, unless your shorten the regular season or the playoffs, add some doubleheaders, or -- god forbid -- play some World Series games during the day. The weather in Detroit in the afternoon last October was quite lovely. At night? Not so much.

Back by popular demand! This gives us an excuse to run the current standings in the race to 10 -- finishing with one of the worst 10 records in order to have your first-round draft pick protected if you sign a premium free agent, or simply to gain more draft money by finishing lower in the overall standings.

The Mets ran out a lineup with these OBPs on Tuesday: .316, .291, .317., .356, .258, .280, .233, .258. Again, not batting averages, but on-base percentages. Hey, they actually scored five runs but the pitching staff allowed eight and the Giants won 8-5 in a crucial matchup.

Standings:

 

Team             W   L   Pct.    GB

1. Astros       51 100   .338   ---

2. Marlins      55  96   .364     4

3. White Sox    60  91   .397     9 

4. Cubs         63  88   .417    12

5. Twins        64  86   .427  13.5

6. Mariners     66  85   .437    15

7. Brewers      67  83   .447  16.5 

7. Mets         67  83   .447  16.5

9. Rockies      69  83   .455  17.5

10. Blue Jays   69  81   .460  18.5

11. Giants      70  81   .464    19

12. Padres      70  80   .467  19.5

13. Phillies    71  80   .470    20

Still a crowded race, with just 3.5 games separating the No. 7 teams from the 13th team. Since we last ran the standings last Monday, kudos to the Mariners for creating some space as they've gone 1-7 while being outscored 50 to 18. That's taking tanking to a new level. The Giants went 6-2 and the Padres 5-3 to play themselves out of the top 10. Not a big deal for the Padres, since they don't sign big free agents anyway, but this could be an issue for the Giants if they want to pursue one of the big names who will be out there (not including re-signing Hunter Pence and/or Tim Lincecum). The Phillies, another big-market team, went 5-3. They can't lose right, either.

Here's the funny thing about "tanking": Sometimes even replacement-level pitchers can do a good job. For instance, the New York Mets sent Daisuke Matsuzaka and his 5.75 ERA to the mound on Sunday against the Cleveland Indians. That's not his 2013 ERA; that was his ERA since 2009. In three starts with the Mets in 2013 he was 0-3 with a 10.75 ERA. This looked like a sure thing for the Indians and our pick as tank of the day. So of course the Mets win 2-1 with a run in the ninth, Dice-K pitching into the sixth before leaving after getting struck by a ball.

Sunday's winner: Tough call, but let's give it to the Seattle Mariners for some questionable bullpen usage in the eighth inning. Leading 1-0 against the Rays, right-hander Yoervis Medina came on with Evan Longoria leading off, followed by four lefties. I get using Medina against Longoria as he's sort of established himself as Seattle's eighth-inning guy. Joe Maddon had stacked his lineup with left-handed batters, but had already used Delmon Young and Wil Myers off the bench in the seventh. With Luke Scott, James Loney, Matt Joyce and Kelly Johnson due up, didn't it make sense to bring in Oliver Perez at that point? Sean Rodriguez, Desmond Jennings and Yunel Escobar were on the bench, but I'd rather have Perez facing those guys than Medina against the lefties. Anyway, Scott walked (Jennings pinch-ran), Loney doubled in a run and Perez was finally brought in, and Rodriguez singled in two runs as the Rays avoided the sweep.

(Honorable mention to the Giants for resting both Brandon Belt and Pablo Sandoval, although they beat the Diamondbacks anyway.)

Current standings in the race to 10:

Team             W   L   Pct.    GB

1. Astros       47  96   .329   ---

2. Marlins      53  88   .376     7

3. White Sox    57  85   .401  10.5 

4. Cubs         60  82   .423  13.5

5. Twins        61  80   .433    15

6. Brewers      62  80   .437  15.5

7. Giants       64  79   .448    17 

8. Mets         64  77   .454    18

8. Mariners     65  78   .455    18

10. Padres      65  77   .458  18.5

10. Rockies     66  78   .458  18.5

12. Phillies    66  77   .462    19

13. Blue Jays   67  76   .469    20

14. Angels      67  75   .472  20.5

The Padres, Phillies and Blue Jays all hurt their chances to finish in the top-10 worst records by sweeping their series. The Twins jumped into the top five with their sweep at the hands of Toronto and the Rockies are suddenly right there with their sweep defeat in San Diego. Good job, Roy Oswalt! Key series starting Monday: Rockies at Giants.

Eric Karabell and myself discuss the rankings of a few teams in ESPN Insider's Future Power Rankings project.

The New York Mets' rotation right now includes Daisuke Matsuzaka, who owns the worst ERA since 2009 of any pitcher with at least 300 innings. They just signed Aaron Harang, released by the Mariners after posting a 9.12 ERA in August.

Why would a team playing out the string give starts to two washed-up veterans?

It's pretty simple: The Mets have come down with injuries to their rotation and they want to limit Zack Wheeler's innings, so they'll use a six-man rotation in September to space out his starts. Unwilling to use some of the younger pitchers already on the 40-man roster -- who would have their own innings limits -- the Mets dug up whoever they could to fill their holes.

But it's not quite so simple; there's more to it than just protecting Wheeler. The Mets want to lose. Or, at least, I think they want to lose, because there is incentive to lose ... or lose often enough to finish with one of the 10 worst records in baseball.

Remember last winter when the Mets wanted to sign free agent Michael Bourn? And Bourn apparently wanted to play with the Mets? Bourn ended up signing with Cleveland because the Mets held the 11th pick in the first round -- and only the first 10 picks are protected if you sign a free agent who has been given a qualifying offer by his previous team. The Mets decided that signing Bourn and losing the pick wasn't worth it; the Indians, drafting fifth, signed Bourn and Nick Swisher, two free agents tied to qualifying offers.

Basically, by tying draft picks to free agency, MLB is encouraging tanking. No team wants to finish with the 11th- or 12th-worst record and lose that first-round pick if they sign an elite free agent -- which this offseason could include the likes of Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Matt Garza, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Ervin Santana. You don't think the Mets would be interested in a couple of those outfielders?

True, free agency has always been tied to draft picks, but two things happened in the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement. First, it used to be that the top 15 picks were protected when signing the old "Type A" free agent; there is a big difference, however, between the 10th-worst team, which is a team that usually finishes well under .500, and a middle-of-the-pack team, which is usually one on the fringes of the playoff race. This year, for example, the No. 15 team is Washington, currently a game over .500. The second major change was that each team is given a draft budget, based on money allocated for each pick. Finish worse and you get more money to spend on the draft.

That means September baseball will include Matsuzaka and Harang pitching their hearts out to help the Mets. You see, the Mets currently own the 10th-worst record in the majors. They are right on the border of no-man's land, "leading" the Phillies and Blue Jays by just one game. In fact, the race for the 10th spot is going to be nearly as heated as the race for the playoffs. Here are the standings in the race for No. 10 -- starting with the Astros and including how many games behind each team is from the team below them:

Team            W   L  Pct.    GB

1. Astros      45  92  .328   ---

2. Marlins     51  85  .375   6.5

3. White Sox   56  80  .412     5

4. Cubs        58  79  .423   1.5

5. Brewers     59  78  .431     1

6. Twins       60  76  .441   1.5

7. Padres      61  76  .445   0.5

7. Giants      61  76  .445   0.5

9. Mariners    62  75  .453     1

10. Mets       62  74  .456   0.5

11. Blue Jays  63  75  .457     1

11. Phillies   63  75  .457     1 

13. Rockies    65  74  .468   1.5

14. Angels     64  72  .471   0.5

The Twins, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Blue Jays and Phillies -- sixth-worst to 12th-worst -- are separated by just two games. In the 2013 draft, the Marlins drafted sixth and had a draft budget of $9.5 million. The Mariners drafted 12th and had a budget of $6.1 million. It's going to be a mad, mad scramble to lose just the right amount of games. Not that front offices right on the border will ever admit that.

The final standings are particularly crucial to clubs like the Mets, Phillies, Giants and Mariners, who would be willing to spend the money to dip into the free-agent market to plug holes. Like the Mets, the Mariners are desperate for outfielders. Ellsbury, an Oregon native, would be a perfect fit for their center-field hole; Choo would look great in a corner outfield slot. But the risk of losing that pick if you finish No. 11 has to be weighed.

Look, there's risk in tanking. The Astros tore everything apart a couple of years ago in beginning a complete overhaul of the organization, but how many fans will they lose with years of bad baseball and how many years will it take to win them back? But that's an extreme example. We're really talking only a few wins here -- 74 wins instead of 77. That's not going to have an effect on your fan base or season-ticket sales. (There's an argument that finishing over .500 provides more hope and could lead to more ticket sales over the winter, but right now none of these teams are pushing .500.)

So if you're a Mets fan or Phillies fan or Mariners fan, you have some standings to pay attention to in September. Enjoy the tanking.

New York Mets rookie outfielder Juan Lagares had to beat out the best of the best to win the Defensive Player of the Month award for August.

Lagares topped two-time 2013 winner Andrelton Simmons and impressive Colorado Rockies rookie Nolan Arenado to take the award this month.

It was well-earned. Lagares led the majors with 12 defensive runs saved in August (one more than Simmons, three more than Arenado). That value came both from his ability to range far outside his position to catch balls and from a throwing arm that has ranked among the best in the sport since his arrival.

Lagares was credited with 22 "Out of Zone" putouts by Baseball Info Solutions in August, with an Out of Zone catch defined as one made in an area in which center fielders turn batted balls into outs less than 50 percent of the time.

Lagares had 67 Out of Zone plays in 663 2/3 innings in center field through the end of August. His rate of one Out of Zone catch for every 9.9 innings (basically one per game) played ranks best in the majors at that position.

Good examples of his glove work include these two plays, one in which he came in to rob Jedd Gyorko of the San Diego Padres and this one in which he went all the way back to the fence to steal a hit from Twins outfielder Josh Willingham.

Lagares, a converted infielder, didn't even figure to be the team's top defender coming through their farm system. That honor belonged to recent call-up Matt den Dekker, who made ESPN's Top 10 plays a couple of times before even making the majors. But when den Dekker got hurt this spring, and the Mets needed a lift from their outfield reserves after Collin Cowgill fizzled in an initial tryout, Lagares took advantage of his opportunity.

"His confidence is sky high as far as going to get balls," Mets outfield coach Tom Goodwin told ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin prior to Sunday night's game against the Washington Nationals. "You lose that instant excitement when you first get here, and the jitters, and he doesn't have that anymore. He just goes out there and plays the game. That's the biggest compliment I can give him. He's really matured beyond his years."

Lagares leads the National League and ranks second in the majors in outfield assists with 12, trailing only Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon. He's become a deterrent to baserunners both due to his positioning (he likes to play shallow) and his instincts (he gets to balls quickly).

"You'll see him get to some balls where they're line drives and he's getting to them on the first hop, instead of two or three hops later," Goodwin said. "His routes are outstanding. His reads are outstanding. And when he comes in, he makes good, strong, accurate throws."

Simmons had what has become a typical Simmons month with his 11 defensive runs saved. He has 39 defensive runs saved and will break the record for most defensive runs saved in a season, which was set by New York Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner with 35 in 2010. Arenado (30 defensive runs saved) and Manny Machado (31) are neck-and-neck for the lead for third basemen.

Also impressive this month were Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, who led the majors with 25 "good fielding plays" (think plays that would be Web Gem nominees), and Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout, who despite the struggles we noted last week had seven defensive runs saved.

When Alex Rodriguez got caught off second base on Ichiro Suzuki's line drive back to the pitcher in the 10th inning, I was sure the Tampa Bay Rays would win.

When Joba Chamberlain walked Jose Molina leading off the bottom of the 10th, I was sure the Rays would win.

It just seemed like one of those classic Tampa Bay games -- Joe Maddon pulls the right moves -- like not pinch hitting for Molina -- and the Rays scratch out the victory.

But the New York Yankees also know how to scratch, and Boone Logan got a double play, Alfonso Soriano doubled and stole third (stole third!) and scored on a sac fly and Mariano Rivera went 1-2-3 and the Yankees managed to avoid a sweep.

Soriano gave one of the great quotes of the year about his surprise, one-out steal, which he swiped even while stumbling: "Being the DH, my leg is not loose 100 percent. My mind is 100 percent but legs are not."

A lot of legs aren't 100 percent this time of year, making the final stretch run so exciting: Which teams and players will wobble to the finish line, and which will sprint across it? Here are some predictions for the final five weeks:

1. The Yankees finish two wins short of the wild card. They've made it interesting, which is a remarkable feat, but I'm still having trouble seeing them passing three teams to win a wild-card spot. On the other hand, if they stay in it, their final four series are against the Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Rays and Houston Astros, and three of those teams will be playing out the string. Can you imagine the uproar if the Yankees make it … and then Rodriguez plays in the postseason and leads the Yankees to the World Series title and Bud Selig has to hand him the World Series MVP trophy?

2. The Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers will finish with their respective league's best record. It's a great battle for best overall record in both leagues, and I'll go with the Braves and Tigers to lock up home-field advantage, but what's the value in that? Let's check the past 10 seasons:

2012: Yankees (lost ALCS); Washington Nationals (lost NLDS)
2011: Yankees (lost ALDS); Philadelphia Phillies (lost NLDS)
2010: Rays (lost ALDS); Phillies (lost NLCS)
2009: Yankees (won World Series); Los Angeles Dodgers (lost NLCS)
2008: Los Angeles Angels (lost ALDS); Chicago Cubs (lost NLDS)
2007: Boston Red Sox (won World Series)/Cleveland Indians (lost ALCS); Arizona Diamondbacks (lost NLCS)
2006: Yankees (lost ALDS); New York Mets (lost NLCS)
2005: Chicago White Sox (won World Series); Cardinals (lost NLCS)
2004: Yankees (lost ALCS); St. Louis Cardinals (lost World Series)
2003: Yankees (lost World Series); Braves (lost NLDS)

So, five of 20 reached the World Series, and two won. Basically, home-field advantage doesn't mean anything. Going all-out to avoid the wild-card game makes sense, of course, but the playoffs are too much of a crapshoot to worry much about home-field advantage.

3. One team currently out of the playoffs will make it. My pick: the Indians.

OK, I actually have no idea. It could be the Baltimore Orioles or the Yankees. But we have about 32 games remaining, and checking the similar point in the schedule reveals we should see at least one team currently out of the playoff picture climb its way in. The NL seems pretty locked in with the Diamondbacks now seven games behind the Cincinnati Reds for the second wild card, although recent history (see list below) suggests even that isn't an impossible number.

So it's more likely to be an AL team, and nobody seems to be talking about the Indians, who are just 1½ behind the Oakland A's for the second wild card. They do have a tough road trip this week to Atlanta and Detroit and then a home series against Baltimore, but if they survive those nine games, their final seven series are against the Mets, Kansas City Royals, White Sox, Royals, Astros, White Sox and Minnesota Twins.

Question is: Do they catch the A's? Or do the A's catch the Texas Rangers for the AL West title and the Indians then catch the Rangers for the wild card?

2012 -- AL, one of five (Tigers came back from three behind White Sox); NL, none
2011 -- AL, one of four (Rays 8½ games from behind Red Sox); NL, one of four (Cardinals 9½ games from behind Braves)
2010 -- AL, none; NL, one of four (Giants from six behind the San Diego Padres)
2009 -- AL, one of four (Twins came from 4½ games behind Tigers); NL, none (Colorado Rockies were tied with the Giants)
2008 -- AL, none; NL, two of four (Phillies were a half-game behind the Mets, Dodgers from three games behind the Diamondbacks)

4. Max Scherzer will finish 23-1. I know -- and I know you know -- that win-loss records for starting pitchers are overrated and dependent, to a certain extent, on run support. Still, 23-1 would be pretty freakin' awesome, no matter how much you dislike pitcher wins. Scherzer is currently 19-1, which breaks the all-time single-season winning percentage currently held by Roy Face, who went 18-1 as a relief pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1959. The best winning percentage for a pitcher who won at least 20 games is Ron Guidry's .893 mark (25-3 record) with the Yankees in 1978.

Scherzer, of course, has received great run support, but he's also been amazingly consistent, never allowing more than five runs and allowing four or five runs just five times in 26 starts. That doesn't mean there hasn't been some good fortune; he's 3-1 in those five starts and is one of just three starters with three wins in such games (Erasmo Ramirez is 3-0 and Tommy Milone is 3-5). Patrick Corbin and Mat Latos, both 2-1, are the only others with at least two decisions who don't have a losing record.

Scherzer should get six more starts. Assuming the Tigers stick to a five-man rotation, giving Scherzer four or five days between starts, his remaining starts should line up like this … with predictions:

Thursday, Aug. 29: vs. A's (win)
Tuesday, Sept. 3: at Red Sox (no-decision)
Monday, Sept. 9: at White Sox (win)
Sunday, Sept. 15: vs. Royals (win)
Friday, Sept. 20: vs. White Sox (win)
Wednesday, Sept 25: at Twins (no-decision)

That final start could also be pushed to Friday, Sept. 27, putting Scherzer on track to start the first game of the postseason.

5. Miguel Cabrera versus Mike Trout: Here we go again. Well, sort of. In reality, this debate is stuck in three feet of mud and going nowhere. While Trout now leads Cabrera in both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs wins above replacemnet (WAR), Trout has no chance to win the AL MVP Award. This season would actually be a more interesting debate than last, when Trout was clearly the better -- and more valuable -- all-around player. The two major things that make this argument a nonstarter for voters: (A) The Angels haven't even sniffed the playoff races and (B) Cabrera is hitting .422 with an .867 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position.
6. Andrew McCutchen locks up the NL MVP Award with a big September. My vote would still go to Clayton Kershaw, but with just 13 wins, he's probably a long-shot MVP candidate for the voters. Look for McCutchen to finish strong and lead the Pirates to their first playoff trip since 1992, a storyline MVP voters will fall in love with.

7. Nobody will blame a mattress if they miss the playoffs. No crying in baseball, unless your team blows a nine-game lead in September.

8. Jon Lester leads the Red Sox to the AL East title. Clay Buchholz didn't pitch well in a rehab assignment on Sunday, throwing 38 pitches and walking three batters while recording just two outs. While Buchholz's return would bolster Boston's division title hopes if he pitches like he did the first two months -- over which he went 9-0 -- Lester has been doing his best pitching since before Boston's infamous September 2011 collapse. He's 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break, having allowed more than three runs only once and just three home runs. He's been throwing about nine more fastballs per start and fewer cutters, which is interesting because many analysts have suggested he fell in love with the cutter too much the past two seasons.

Anyway … Red Sox win the East, Rays win the wild card.

9. Tigers versus Dodgers in World Series. It the Year of Miggy. It's the Year of Kershaw. Maybe it's World Series destiny.

10. The World Series will go seven games. Kershaw versus Scherzer? Tie game in the ninth, Kershaw still pitching, Cabrera up …

There’s a team in New York that’s worth watching these days, one that has struggled to score runs much of the season, has been entangled in some legal issues and is in need of a shortstop.

I’m talking, of course, about the New York Mets.

Just like their rivals from the Bronx, the Mets aren’t going to make the playoffs; unlike the Yankees, however, the Mets have a future that isn’t full of aging stars, bloated payrolls and Vernon Wells.

That future was on display on Tuesday night in the form of Zack Wheeler and a right arm that has enough electricity to light up at least a few of the auto body shops that surround Citi Field. Wheeler took a shutout into the seventh inning against the Atlanta Braves, pumping up a home crowd on a warm August evening in Queens. The Mets held on for a 5-3 victory, and while everyone will be talking about the Yankees’ doubleheader sweep of the Blue Jays, it’s Wheeler and the Mets that are more exciting.

Wheeler is the future to Matt Harvey’s present, a guy with a big fastball and ace potential. He may never reach that apex -- he doesn’t yet have Harvey’s command, let alone his complete arsenal of secondary pitches -- but he has pitched much better than I expected after watching his first couple big league starts, with a 3.49 ERA through his first 12 spins in the rotation. Those outings included a 12-strikeout gem in his previous start in San Diego and a one-run, no-walk effort the game before that in Arizona.

Wheeler’s fastball is a weapon almost by itself. Since his recall on June 18, only 10 pitchers have struck out more batters on fastballs. His other pitches -- slider, curveball and changeup -- are works in progress, with the slider looking like it will become his top off-speed pitch. Ask Jason Heyward about the one he struck out on in the third inning.

Wheeler tired a bit in the seventh, walking Joey Terdoslavich and Heyward with one out, and then watching Andrelton Simmons clear the bases with a three-run double off reliever Carlos Torres. But I like that Terry Collins initially left Wheeler in there to try to work out of a jam; he’s a young pitcher who needs to learn how to close out those innings. He didn’t on this night (he left after 114 pitches) but the belief is that he’ll get there soon.

On a night Wheeler pitched, catcher Travis d’Arnaud picked up his first major league hit. He’s the highly rated prospect the Mets got from Toronto in the R.A. Dickey trade. He spent most of the minor league season on the disabled list, but check out these numbers from his 19-game stint in Triple-A: 21 walks, 12 strikeouts. In four games with the Mets, he’s drawn five walks. Have to love that approach, although his injury history is a concern.

Ike Davis continued his torrid stretch, going 2-for-4 with an RBI single and eighth-inning home run, and I know, it’s Ike Davis and this happened last year as well. He was hitting .161 on June 6 when sent to the minors, but since his return to the Mets on July 5, he’s hit .282 with a .450 on-base percentage -- only Joey Votto, Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt have drawn more walks in that time frame. Is he going to be the star we once thought? No, but maybe if this new ability to get on base is legit, he's going to be a very useful piece in the lineup.

Then there’s Juan Lagares, the speedy rookie center fielder who has played outstanding defense in center field. Entering Tuesday, Baseball Info Solutions had credited Lagares with 21 defensive runs saved, tied for fifth most of any player in the majors, at any position. But Lagares has done that in about two-thirds the innings that Carlos Gomez, the highest-rated outfielder, has played. Defensive stats aren’t perfect and single-season numbers can certainly be questioned, but it appears that from both the metrics and the anecdotal reports, Lagares could be an elite defender. Now, his bat may not play -- 66 strikeouts versus nine walks is an issue -- but there’s hope here.

Behind Harvey and Wheeler in the rotation there is solid Dillon Gee, Jonathon Niese and promising Jenrry Mejia, who was just shut down after five impressive starts. He’ll have surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow. Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero started the Futures Games and are two top pitching prospects who have reached Double-A. The Mets can dream of a 2015 rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Montero and Mejia.

The Yankees, meanwhile, have players just trying to stay awake in the late innings.

Maybe the Yankees hang in this wild-card race -- although at 5.5 games behind the A’s and with the Rays and the Orioles and Indians still a game ahead of them it will take exceptional baseball from the Yankees and bad baseball from at least one of the A’s or Rays for a playoff berth to happen. More likely, the Yankees fall short and they’ll have to figure out how to reload for 2014.

Maybe they can figure out a way. Maybe they make peace with Alex Rodriguez, he gets his suspension reduced and hits 20 home runs in the second half. Maybe Derek Jeter, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira all return healthy and perform. Maybe they replace Mariano Rivera without a hitch. Maybe.

Just don’t be surprised if it’s the Mets who start getting the back page covers in the New York tabloids next year. They need a shortstop -- how about a trade for Starlin Castro? -- and they should go hard after free-agent outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. The bullpen needs some work but that can be fixed. But Mets fans can see a foundation building instead of crumbling.

I just wrote about the National League Rookie of the Year debate and one of the fun things about the players involved is their ages -- Yasiel Puig is 22, Jose Fernandez just turned 21, Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran are 22. These guys are already very good and still very young.

Last week, Joe Posnanski wrote about all the young talent in the majors today and pointed out we could end up with 13 or 14 players in their age 23-or-younger season who could end up with 3.0 WAR or higher. The "record" for this category, according to Posnanski (I assume he was searching on Baseball-Reference.com) was 1978, when 14 players did it. The catch: Joe was writing about position players only.

Topping the list would be Mike Trout, with Manny Machado, Andrelton Simmons, Jean Segura, Freddie Freeman, Puig and Nolan Arenado already above the 3.0 mark. Jason Heyward is at 2.9 and on a hot streak. Eric Hosmer is at 2.7 WAR. That's nine guys who should get there with Anthony Rizzo, Brett Lawrie, Salvador Perez, Jose Iglesias and Bryce Harper between 1.9 and 2.1 WAR. Wil Myers has 1.7 WAR in about two months of play. This list doesn't even include Giancarlo Stanton, still just 23, but having a disappointing season with 1.3 WAR after leading the National League in slugging percentage last season.

So that's a lot of young talent without even talking about the pitchers.

Anyway, Joe didn't mention all the 1978 guys in his piece, so I thought it would be interesting to check out that list and see what happened the rest of their careers. Indulge me as I revisit the players of my youth, when I first started watching baseball and kept baseball cards in shoe boxes, wrapped in rubber bands.

Jack Clark: 5.9 (52.9 career WAR)
Clark finished fifth in the 1978 NL MVP vote and became one of the best hitters of the '80s (sixth in OPS+ for the decade behind Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Pedro Guerrero and Darryl Strawberry). He couldn't stay healthy, however -- during his age 27-to-30 peak years he averaged just 96 games per season. Couldn't keep his mouth shut either. Still can't keep his mouth shut.

Willie Randolph 5.8 (65.6)
Underrated player due to his defense and walks; a borderline Hall of Fame candidate by his career WAR total but fell off the ballot after one year and would appear an unlikely Veterans Committee candidate.

Jason Thompson 5.6 (24.8)
The 23-year-old first baseman for the Tigers hit .287 with 26 home runs and walks and made his second All-Star team. Looked like he'd be a big star for a long time, but it didn't happen. After a slow start in 1980, the Tigers dumped him to the Angels for Al Cowens, and then after hitting .317/.439/.526 the rest of the season for the Angels, he was traded to the Pirates for Ed Ott and Mickey Mahler -- 29-year-old part-time catcher and nobody pitcher. The Pirates were then supposed to trade Thompson to the Yankees -- basically for $500,000 in cash -- but the commissioner vetoed that trade so he was stuck with Pittsburgh. Anyway, not sure why nobody wanted him. Defense? Bad breath? Not sure the story there. Made the All-Star team in 1982 but was done by age 31.

Ellis Valentine 5.5 (16.9)
Hit .289/.330/.489, 25 home runs, 35 doubles, won a Gold Glove thanks to his cannon arm. Part of the young Expos outfield with Andre Dawson and Warren Cromartie. Hit in the face by a pitch on May 30, 1980. They say he was never the same again ... except after returning in July he hit .331 the rest of the season. Injuries and drug and alcohol problems cut his career short after that, although he straightened himself out after his retirement from baseball.

Robin Yount: 5.0 (77.1)
Was just 22, but already in his fifth season in the majors after starting for Milwaukee at age 18. Would of course go on to win two MVP Awards and get elected to the Hall of Fame. Now, looking at his season you probably wouldn't have projected him as a Hall of Famer -- he hit .293 with nine home runs and 147 hits in 123 games. But a 22-year-old with ability can sometimes take a big leap forward and Young did that in 1980.

Chet Lemon 4.9 (55.3)
A superb defender in center, although he never won a Gold Glove Award. He hit .304/.386/.482 with the White Sox from 1978 to 1981, but after a trade to the Tigers for Steve Kemp never hit .300 again, even though he was just 27 at the time of the trade. He ranks eighth among position players in WAR during his 1977-1984 peak. Pretty underrated player.

Andre Dawson 4.7 (64.4)
In his second season, hit .253/.299/.442, but with 25 home runs, 28 steals and good defense. Here's a question: At that moment in time, would you rather have had Dawson or Valentine? Valentine had the better season and both were 23, but Dawson was faster and more athletic. Neither walked much, although Dawson struck out a lot more. I think it would have been a tough call.

Eddie Murray 4.3 (68.2)
Hit .283 with 27 home runs and 70 walks at age 22, good enough to finish eighth in the AL MVP vote.

Lou Whitaker: 3.8 (74.8)
The AL Rookie of the Year in 1978, he's a slam-dunk Hall of Famer if you go strictly by WAR. Hit just 12 home runs his first four seasons but eventually topped 20 four times. Effective enough into his late 30s that even in his final year he posted an .890 OPS in a platoon role with the Tigers.

Terry Puhl: 3.7 (28.4)
He was just 21 and hit .289 for the Astros with 32 steals, a few walks and was solid defensively. Never developed too much beyond that -- hitting home runs in the Astrodome was near impossible in those days anyways -- but he was a prototypical Astros outfielder of that period with good speed and the ability to hit for average.

Lee Mazzilli: 3.3 (15.4)
A pretty good player from 1978 to 1980, when he was the toast of a bad Mets franchise -- hailing from Brooklyn made him even more popular with the Mets' faithful. Hit a big home run in the 1979 All-Star Game. Started suffering back and elbow injuries and was never the same, although the Mets squeezed Ron Darling and Walt Terrell from the Rangers in a steal of a deal.

Steve Kemp: 3.3 (19.5)
Good hitter whose career was eventually derailed by injuries. The 1978 Tigers had Thompson, Whitaker and Kemp, plus 20-year-old Alan Trammell, 22-year-old Lance Parrish and 23-year-old Jack Morris. They won 86 games. It took them only six years from there to win a World Series.

Ozzie Smith 3.2 (76.5)
He hit .258 and swiped 40 bases to finish second in the NL Rookie of the Year vote to Bob Horner (who went straight from Arizona State to the majors). Ozzie's bat stalled for his next three years in San Diego before a trade to St. Louis -- and turf -- helped him become respectable at the plate.

Garry Templeton 3.0 (27.7)
Most career hits through age-24 season since 1970: Yount, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Cesar Cedeno, Edgar Renteria, Roberto Alomar, Miguel Cabrera, Templeton.

So that's the 14. It doesn't even include Trammell (2.8 WAR), Paul Molitor (2.7) or Carney Lansford (2.6).

You still hear a lot that players are rushed to the majors these days. There's no evidence this is actually true. In 1978, there were 21 players who were 23 or younger and batted at least 500 times and 27 who batted at least 300. In 2012, those figures were 14 and 20. In 1978, 28 pitchers 23 or younger reached 100 innings compared to 12 last year. There are reasons for this -- more guys go to college now (1978 was right before the boom in college baseball), some guys are now held back in the minors to save on service time, innings are limited and so on. But it's also because the talent level is a little higher than it was 35 years ago; there's less room for a 21-year-old kid to play regularly these days.

Not all these kids today will turn into stars ... but four of those 14 from 1978 did turn into Hall of Famers.

We have a great matchup Thursday afternoon between rookie starters Jose Fernandez of the Marlins and Gerrit Cole of the Pirates. Tristan Cockcroft discussed that matchup and some great young pitching combos in the majors in this edition of SweetSpot TV.

I thought I'd also rank my top 10 young pitchers, based on predicted long-term success. I considered rookies or guys with limited exposure before this season, so I included Matt Harvey (he just missed rookie eligibility) but not Patrick Corbin (more than 100 innings last year) or Trevor Rosenthal (a reliever, for now).

One interesting note: Nine of the 10 are National Leaguers.

1. Matt Harvey, Mets

Repertoire: Fastball (average velocity: 95.8 mph; max: 100.1), slider, curveball, changeup.

Fun fact: Harvey's average fastball velocity is tops in the majors among qualified starting pitchers.

What makes Harvey so tough is that four-pitch offering, all quality pitches, all thrown with command. He will hang the slider from time to time and I wonder if the curveball eventually becomes his No. 2 offering after his great fastball. He leads the majors in lowest OPS allowed -- better than Clayton Kershaw. The reason I like him more than Fernandez is primarily the age difference; Harvey is four years older and a better bet to stay healthy. Fernandez, even if handled carefully, still has to get through those precarious age 21 to 23 years.

2. Jose Fernandez, Marlins

Repertoire: Fastball (average: 94.8; max: 99.0), curveball, slider, changeup.

Fun fact: In 81 plate appearances ending with his slider, batters have six hits, 49 strikeouts and no walks.

Fernandez doesn't quite have Harvey's command yet, but he's just as tough to hit. In 21 starts, he's allowed just 21 extra-base hits -- 11 doubles, two triples and eight home runs. Compare that extra-base ratio to, say, Mike Minor, who is a pretty good pitcher. Minor has allowed 53 extra-base hits. Fernandez's curveball and slider are both proving to be wipeout pitches. Check out the heat map below:



That's a lot of blue. Batters are hitting just .127 against those two pitches -- with 89 strikeouts, 11 walks and two home runs. If Fernandez gets ahead in the count with his fastball, batters basically have no chance. Right now, he throws his curve about twice as often as the slider; both pitches have big movement and that slider reminds me of the one a young Kerry Wood threw, sweeping across the plate, nearly impossible to make contact with.

3. Shelby Miller, Cardinals

Repertoire: Fastball (average: 93.7; max: 97.9), curveball, changeup.

Fun fact: Among pitchers with 100 innings, the only ones with a higher percentage of fastballs thrown are Bartolo Colon and Juan Nicasio.

Miller has basically been a two-pitch guy -- fastball, curve. If he can refine that changeup, he'll be even tougher against left-handed batters.

4. Julio Teheran, Braves

Repertoire: Fastball (average: 91.9; max: 95.7), slider, curveball, changeup.

Fun fact: Since getting roughed up in his first three starts, Teheran has a 2.38 ERA since April 23, fifth best in the majors.

Teheran has made the slider his No. 2 offering and essentially ditched the changeup he used in the minors (he's throwing it just 5 percent of the time). He may need to eventually bring back that pitch, however, as left-handed batters have an .804 OPS off him.

5. Gerrit Cole, Pirates

Repertoire: Fastball (average: 95.8; max: 101.0), slider, curveball, changeup.

Fun fact: Cole has thrown the fastest pitch of any starter this year.

Cole's velocity is as good as any starter in the majors, but right now his fastball isn't a swing-and-miss pitch; it's straight and batters see it pretty well. Among pitchers with at least 10 starts, Cole's swing-and-miss percentage on his fastball (11.8 percent) ranks 106th out of 153 pitchers. He's shown good command of it, but it will be the development of his off-speed stuff that determines whether he'll be an ace or settle in as a No. 2 or No. 3 guy.

6. Chris Archer, Rays

Repertoire: Fastball (average: 94.9; max: 98.8), slider, changeup.

Fun fact: In eight starts from June 23 to Aug. 2, he went 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA and .185 average allowed.

Archer was on a roll, commanding his fastball after some shaky outings after his June recall from the minors, but he left Wednesday night's start with a tight forearm. Obviously, let's hope he's OK. Archer primarily uses that explosive fastball and wicked slider; his changeup hasn't yet proven to be an effective pitch. You can get by with being a two-pitch guy, but he'll get more strikeouts if the changeup develops.

7. Zack Wheeler, Mets

Repertoire: Fastball (average: 94.5; max: 98.4), slider, curveball, changeup.

Fun fact: The five picks ahead of him in the 2009 draft: Stephen Strasburg (Nationals), Dustin Ackley (Mariners), Donavan Tate (Padres), Tony Sanchez (Pirates), Matt Hobgood (Orioles).

There's no denying the upside talent here, but he's a long way from being a polished pitcher. While he brings it in the mid- to upper-90s, his fastball hasn't yet been a dominating pitch. He's allowed seven home runs off it in nine starts with 27 strikeouts and 22 walks. He's thrown the changeup only 32 times, so that remains a pitch to work on, as well. For Wheeler, it's all about command. We'll see if he gets there.

8. Hyun-jin Ryu, Dodgers

Repertoire: Fastball (average: 90.1; max: 94.6), changeup, slider, curveball.

Fun fact: He's 5-1 with a 1.83 ERA at home.

At 26, he's the oldest guy here, but he's proven to be the polished left-hander the Dodgers believed they were getting when they brought him over from Korea. His fastball may not match up with the guys above him but he's a four-pitch guy who commands his pitches and keeps the ball down in the zone.

9. Tony Cingrani, Reds

Repertoire: Fastball (average: 92.1; max: 96.3), curveball, slider, changeup.

Fun fact: Among those with at least 10 starts, Cingrani's swing-and-miss percentage against his fastball is sixth best in the majors.

Cingrani basically throws high fastballs, relying more on deception than velocity. He throws the fastball 81 percent of the time -- even more often than Miller -- but hasn't reached 100 innings yet. Some believe hitters will eventually catch on to him, and he'll always be a little prone to home runs, but I think it's a package that can still work, especially if the other offerings improve.

10. Jeff Locke, Pirates

Repertoire: Sinking fastball (average: 90.2; max: 94.8), curveball, changeup.

Fun fact: Locke has seven starts allowing zero runs. Only Hiroki Kuroda with eight has more. (Miller and Yu Darvish also have seven.)

Locke has his skeptics, due to his fastball velocity and poor strikeout rate. It's possible the skeptics could be right -- he's allowed 27 hits in 16 1/3 innings in his past three starts. But he does keep the ball down in the zone (only seven home runs allowed). You can win without racking up big strikeout totals but he'll have to find that balance between issuing too many walks (4.2 per nine) and throwing too many hittable pitches to maintain long-term success. I like his chances more than most, but I understand the reasons not to believe in him.

In this age of statistical analysis, one aspect of the game that still gets overlooked is baserunning. It's a much less important part of the game than hitting or pitching or defense -- but not insignificant.

Mark Simon has a good post on the Mets' baserunning -- the best in the majors by a wide margin. The Mets don't seem like a fast team on paper and their 68 steals entering Wednesday rank just fifth in the NL, but successfully running the bases includes things like going first to third on a single or avoiding outs on the bases. The Mets have a sizable advantage over the No. 2 team, the Royals, in UBR (from FanGraphs.com).

The top five and bottom five baserunning teams according to UBR:

1. Mets, +15.4 runs better than average
2. Royals, +8.9
3. Indians, +8.0
4. Pirates, +7.6
5. Rockies, _+7.0
5. Giants, +7.0

26. Braves, -8.0
27. Dodgers, -8.7
28. White Sox, -8.9
29. Mariners, -9.1
30. Rangers, -9.3

By the way, here are the top five and bottom five individuals:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: +9.5 runs
2. Rajai Davis, Blue Jays: +8.6
3. Elvis Andrus, Rangers: +7.4 (how bad are the rest of the Rangers?!?)
4. Starling Marte, Pirates: +6.6
5. Mike Trout, Angels: +6.3

1. Paul Konerko, White Sox: -5.9 runs
2. Allen Craig, Cardinals: -5.5
3. Victor Martinez, Tigers: -5.5
4. Todd Helton, Rockies: -4.5
5. Aramis Ramirez, Brewers: -4.1

Arizona Diamondbacks: Martin Prado

Prado was the key player the Diamondbacks got in return for Justin Upton in a trade with the Braves last offseason. Since playing more or less every day at a number of positions from 2009-12 in Atlanta, Prado posted a 109 adjusted OPS (100 is average). In his first year in Arizona, however, it is a meager 83. The D-Backs expected a lot more from him than they are getting, and if they intend to maintain their lead in the NL West, they will need Prado to bounce back.

Atlanta Braves: B.J. Upton

Before injuries decimated their outfield right before the All-Star break, the Braves were quite fine even with B.J. Upton failing miserably in the first year of his five-year, $75.25 million contract. B.J. himself (strained adductor muscle) joins brother Justin (calf strain), as well as Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Jordan Schafer among key position players who are injured. B.J. can mitigate a lot of that lost offense by recapturing his offensive prowess from his days with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Chicago Cubs: Starlin Castro

The Cubs thought they had one of the league's future stars at shortstop in Castro, but he has significantly regressed in his fourth season in the majors. His OPS is down by more than 120 points, he isn't stealing bases with nearly the same frequency, and his defense has by many accounts gotten worse. He is only 23 years old, but the Cubs signed him through 2019 on a seven-year, $60 million extension. Castro flaming out would be devastating to the restructured Cubs, so he needs to use the second half to put himself back on the map.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips

Phillips may be the team's top RBI guy, but he leaves plenty to be desired offensively. His current .413 slugging percentage is a career low dating back to 2006 when he started playing regularly. While he has hit plenty of home runs (12), he is only sitting on 15 doubles. Additionally, he stole 15 bases in 17 attempts last season, but has stolen only one base in three attempts this year. Phillips would be deserving of the accolades he has received this year if he were to rediscover his power and baserunning skills.

Colorado Rockies: Michael Cuddyer

The Rockies are still in it despite being four games under .500. A big reason they are even where they are is because Cuddyer is having a career year at the age of 34. His current .330 average, .391 on-base percentage and .568 slugging percentage all represent career highs, vastly exceeding his previous career bests. Some of the success is because of his home ballpark, and some of it is because of plain old luck, but the Rockies won't be able to keep up in a mediocre but highly competitive NL West if Cuddyer regresses.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Yasiel Puig

Everything turned around for the Dodgers after Puig made his major league debut June 3. Since then, they have gone 24-15, moving up from fifth place to second place while cutting into their first-place deficit by five games. Puig hit so well in a month-plus (1.038 OPS) that it merited a serious discussion about his inclusion in the All-Star Game. The Dodgers have been ravaged by injuries, particularly in the outfield, including Puig himself battling a sore hip. The Dodgers will need Puig healthy and in top form for the next two and a half months if they have aspirations to take over the NL West.

Miami Marlins: Jose Fernandez

You can watch Giancarlo Stanton, too, and you'll have exhausted all of the reasons to watch the Marlins. True, they have been playing significantly better since June than they did in the first two months, but they're still 18 games out and already making plans for 2014. Fernandez, as you may have seen in the All-Star Game, has electric stuff and at 20 years old, has a bright future as a potential ace ahead of him. Seeing him pitch once every five days is a privilege which fans of many other teams do not have.
Milwaukee Brewers: Carlos Gomez

The 2013 season has been dismal for the Brewers as they are already 18 games under .500 and 19 1/2 games out and in last place in the NL Central. One of the few pleasant surprises, though, has been Gomez. After years of fumbling around as a failed prospect, Gomez decided to toss out years of coaching advice and become a power hitter. It worked. He is setting career highs across the board and along with his great defense and baserunning, is one of the top candidates for the NL MVP award. Gomez, only 27 years old, could brighten things up for Brewers fans by taking home some hardware at the end of the season.

New York Mets: Ike Davis

If it wasn't for B.J. Upton having a terrible year, Davis would have been talked about more as he heads into the second half with an OPS barely above .500. The Mets demoted him to Triple-A Las Vegas to work on his mechanics. Under the tutelage of 51s manager Wally Backman, Davis posted a 1.091 OPS in 21 games, earning a promotion back to the majors July 5. In eight games leading up to the All-Star break, he went back to his old ways, getting only five hits (all singles) in 32 trips to the plate. Davis is only 26 years old, but the Mets can only afford to give him so much rope before they are forced to make a tough decision about his future.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels

The Phillies will likely go into the July 31 trade deadline as buyers, as they are currently only 6 1/2 games out of first place in a very winnable NL East. They may add a center fielder to replace Ben Revere and they may add a reliever to back up Jonathan Papelbon. What they likely will not add is a starter, despite Hamels' very disappointing season in the first year of a six-year, $144 million contract. He leads the NL in losses with 11 and he has a 4.05 ERA. There is some strong evidence that his changeup -- his calling card -- is not the out-pitch it used to be, and he will have to recapture the feel for it if the Phillies want to have a second-half surge.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jeff Locke

There is some solid evidence based on sabermetric defense-independent statistics that a lot of Locke's first-half success is fluky, based heavily on a paltry .228 batting average on balls in play. He has neither the swing-and-miss stuff nor the pristine control emblematic of most pitchers with an ERA in the 2.15 area. A regressing Locke could start another second-half swoon for the Pirates.

San Diego Padres: Everth Cabrera

Cabrera may be one of the most surprising stories of the 2013 season. He was never considered to be a future star, but he is hitting .291 with a NL-leading 34 stolen bases in 42 attempts. Naturally, there is some skepticism about his ability to keep it going over a full season, and carry it over into 2014. Cabrera could assuage a lot of skepticism by maintaining his current level of play over the final 66 games.

San Francisco Giants: Matt Cain

The Giants are in a similar position with Cain that the Phillies are with Hamels. Cain is sitting on a 5.06 ERA in the second year of a six-year, $127.5 million contract. He is only 28 years old, so his 2013 season could very well be a fluke, but his control has been at its worst over the past five years and he has been more homer-prone than at any other point in his career. A rebounding Cain in the second half would mean the Giants remain contenders in the NL West.

St. Louis Cardinals: Chris Carpenter

The Cardinals are really good. They are so good that no one player really strides ahead in terms of importance, not even Adam Wainwright or Yadier Molina. Chris Carpenter, however, is working his way back from back and shoulder issues and made his first rehab start Monday. Getting him back, whether as a starter or a reliever depending on his durability, could give the Cardinals the same boost he gave them at the end of the 2011 season.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg was kept out of the postseason last year as part of a predetermined plan to reduce his innings pitched. The Nationals had reached the playoffs for the first time since moving to Washington, D.C., and for the first time as a franchise since 1981, when they were the Montreal Expos. It seemed as if the assumption was that Strasburg would have plenty more postseasons in which to pitch, including 2013. The Nationals have arguably been baseball's biggest disappointment, but Strasburg can help power them into playing in October with a strong second half.

Bill Baer is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog. He runs the Crashburn Alley blog on the Phillies.

NEW YORK -- Here's a fun piece of All-Star trivia: At 24, Matt Harvey is the youngest pitcher to start an All-Star Game since Dwight Gooden, also of the Mets, who was 23 in 1988.

How Harvey will fare in front of the home fans is one of the big story lines heading into the game. Let's hope he does better than the last pitcher to start at his home ballpark; Roger Clemens of the Houston Astros started in 2004 and allowed six runs in the top of the first inning, including home runs to Manny Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano.

Harvey, 7-2 with a 2.35 ERA, will face off against Detroit Tigers' right-hander Max Scherzer, 13-1 with a 3.19 ERA. As far as historical All-Star matchups go, this one is hard to call considering Harvey's youth. I'd give it a solid A for entertainment value, however, as both are two of the most exciting pitchers to watch, with upper-90s heat.

Pregame introductions
Mets fans don't disappoint, booing loudly when all Braves, Phillies and Cardinals players are introduced, although they do give a nice round of applause to former Met Carlos Beltran. Not that they've forgiven that strikeout to end Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. Many players are wearing bright glow-in-the-dark orange shoes, including Adam Jones and David Wright, leading my colleague Matt Meyers to quip that the Mets should make them their regular shoe color. Why not?

First inning
Top: The AL lineup is pretty lethal, arguably one of the best All-Star starting nines we've seen in years: Mike Trout, Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Jose Bautista, David Ortiz, Adam Jones, Joe Mauer and J.J. Hardy. Maybe not quite what the AL rolled out in 1934 -- eight future Hall of Famers -- but pretty impressive.

Trout leads with a double just inside the first-base bag. In case you've forgotten, Trout is good.

Harvey hits Cano on the kneecap with a 96 mph fastball. Yankees fans just realized their season could get worse. Harvey recovers to strike out Cabrera on a 92 mph slider, but Dustin Pedroia now enters to run for Cano. Can Derek Jeter play second base? Davis pops out to center. Fun factoid No. 2: He bats fourth in this lineup but fifth on his own team. I believe Buck Showalter may be overthinking that one. Anyway, Bautista fans on another slider. Good job by Harvey to escape what could have been a nightmare top of the first.

Also, the conspiracy theorists point out that Harvey is a Scott Boras client and Cano just dropped Boras as his client.

Bottom: The NL lineup has an obvious flaw in that Bruce Bochy decided to hit his worst hitter leadoff, but, hey, the game only determines home-field advantage for the World Series, something Bochy should know a little something about: Brandon Phillips, Carlos Beltran, Joey Votto, David Wright, Carlos Gonzalez, Yadier Molina, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Cuddyer, Bryce Harper. That's right, the Rockies have three players in the starting lineup. They're 46-50.

Scherzer has a 1-2-3 inning. Bochy's secret genius idea to hit Phillips leadoff fails to work.

Second inning
Top: Harvey has a 1-2-3 second inning, including a strikeout of Jones on 98 mph high heat. He leaves to a nice ovation from Mets fans. Job well done, Matt. Now back to your day job -- working for "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon."

Bottom: Well, Chris Sale is on for the AL. Looks like we're going to be treated to a long list of AL relievers later in the game. Brett Cecil! Glen Perkins! Steve Delabar! Greg Holland! What, that doesn't get you excited to watch All-Star baseball? To be fair to Jim Leyland, it's a strategy that could work. Sale mows down the National Leaguers with a nine-pitch inning.

Third inning
Top: Clayton Kershaw on for the NL. He's pretty good, too. He goes 1-2-3. Kershaw or Koufax? I guess Kershaw still has to do it in the World Series. Maybe he will. This year.

Bottom: Sale back in for a second inning! That crafty old fox Leyland! Sale strikes out Tulo, Cuddyer bounces back to the mound and Harper lines out sharply to Cabrera. Twenty-four pitches for Sale, 17 strikes. Nine up, nine down overall. I think you can make an argument that Sale is the best pitcher in the AL. And, no, the White Sox are not going to trade him.

X-rays on Cano a negative. He meets the media outside the AL clubhouse wrapped in 88 pounds of tape and Alex Rodriguez's contract.

Fourth inning
Top: Patrick Corbin of the Diamondbacks enters. All he has to do is face Cabrera, Davis and Bautista. Unfortunately, we don't get to see Kershaw versus Cabrera, which, apologies to Corbin and his family, is what an All-Star Game is supposed to be about. I'll predict this is the inning the AL breaks this 0-0 tie.

Cabrera drills a 1-2 slider to deep right-center for a leadoff double. Davis singles hard off the top of Votto's glove to move Miggy to third and then Bautista delivers the sac fly. Corbin escapes further damages with a 6-3 double play. He's a nice young pitcher and I wasn't trying to be rough on him, but Bochy probably should have called on a right-hander to start the inning with Cabrera leading off.

Bottom: Here comes the King! Felix Hernandez in for the AL and he's very happy that Raul Ibanez and Mike Morse aren't in the outfield behind him.

After leadoff hero Phillips grounds out, Beltran singles past a diving Hardy for the NL's first baserunner. Perfect game foiled. Andrew McCutchen in to pinch run for Beltran. And steals second! Never underestimate Bochy! Votto bounces out so it's up to hometown hero Wright and his magic orange cleats. Wright tops it to third, with Miggy making a nice play to show off his baseball athleticism. I mean, let's not get carried away, that's a play major league third basemen are supposed to make, but it was a nice play.

Fifth inning
Top: Paul Goldschmidt replaces Votto at first base. This is why I thought Goldschmidt should have started at DH. He and Votto have been two of the best hitters in the NL this year. Bochy could have gotten six plate appearances from the two, but now he'll get two from Votto, maybe one from Goldschmidt and maybe one for Allen Craig if he wants to get him in the game as well. Of course, I'm overthinking all this; the managers just want to get everyone in the game, which is understandable.

The AL pushes across another run against Cliff Lee. Adam Jones' orange shoes double to left, Mauer singles on a play Tulowitzki should have/could have made and Hardy's fielder's choice scores the run. At least we won't have the second 1-0 All-Star Game in history (not shockingly, coming in 1968, the Year of the Pitcher).

Bottom: Matt Moore with a quick 1-2-3 bottom of the inning. I think the only ball the NL has hit hard was Harper's lineout to Miggy at third base.

Sixth inning
Top: Glad to see Jose Fernandez of the Marlins get an inning. He's absolutely the real deal, a kid who will start one of these games in the future. He strikes out Pedroia and Davis around a Cabrera pop fly. Impressive. Note that Leyland left in Cabrera and Davis for a third plate appearances. Absolutely the right move considering they've been the two best hitters in the majors. Think somebody wants home-field advantage ... you know, just in case a certain team gets there.

Seventh inning
Top: David Wright still in the game. Starters aren't allowed to play seven innings! Bochy obviously wants to get him a third at-bat, but it also makes sense from a strategic standpoint. Pedro Alvarez is the backup third baseman and if Bochy brings him in, it would give Leyland a nice matchup of using lefties Glen Perkins or Brett Cecil to face Alvarez and Domonic Brown (now batting fifth), neither of whom hit lefties very well.

Bottom: Manny Machado with a nice play off a tricky hop to throw out Paul Goldschmidt from foul territory. Then the fun starts. David Wright singles off Greg Holland, so Leyland brings in Cecil to face Brown. If Bochy had some guts here, he’d pinch hit Allen Craig, but that kind of move doesn’t happen in an All-Star Game. Brown whiffs.

Leyland brings in Steve Delabar to face Buster Posey. Delabar was homer-prone last year (12) -- a reason the Mariners traded him to the Blue Jays -- but he has allowed just one this season. He fans Posey on a 2-2 slider. Good job, Leyland. If you have 13 pitchers, may as well use them. He still has Justin Masterson and Chris Tillman in reserve if the game goes extra innings, plus relievers Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins and Mariano Rivera.

Eighth inning
Top: Tweet of the day from Sam Mellinger: Salvador Perez’s hit was the first by a Royal in the All-Star Game since Bo Jackson in 1989 (although not his home run; that came in the first inning and he singled in the fourth). Jason Kipnis then doubles in Perez and it's 3-0 AL.

Bottom: Rivera in for the bottom of the eighth. Apparently, Leyland is worried that if the other relievers blow the lead this inning, Rivera wouldn’t get in the game. And a goosebump moment as the AL All-Stars remain off the field as Rivera begins his warm-ups; the most universally respected and beloved player in the game. Rivera gets a little weepy as the crowd gives him a big ovation and he doffs his cap.

By the way … Torii Hunter replaces Trout in center. He’s played one game there since 2010. Questionable move. Would Hunter really be crushed if he didn’t get into this game?

Anyway, beautiful pitching from Rivera, that effortless delivery that we’ll remember long after his retirement. He gets hugs from the entire AL team as he heads to the dugout. As J.J. Hardy said yesterday, "It’s great just to share a locker room with him for one day. It’s something I’ll tell my grandchildren about."

Ninth inning
Top: Prince Fielder leads off with a triple, but is stranded at third. (Yes, a triple.)

Bottom: Joe Nathan on for the save, the AL still up 3-0. No matter what happens, I’m pretty sure the most discussed aspect of the game will be Leyland’s decision to use Rivera in the eighth instead of the ninth. Me? I’ll just remember him warming up, a singular man in the middle of a baseball field, throwing a baseball.

(Nathan got the save and Rivera was named MVP. The AL wins with a three-hit shutout. Home-field advantage to the Tigers … or the A’s … or the Red Sox … or maybe, miracle of all miracles, the Yankees and Rivera.)