ESPN MLB

Asking readers to vote on the over/under win total for all 30 teams proved to be a very useful social experiment: Baseball fans, collectively, remain eternally optimistic. Either that or we're not very smart. (I'll side with optimistic.)

You see, nearly every team was predicted to finish over their predicted win total by a majority of voters. Only five teams -- the Orioles, Mets, Cubs, Astros and Rockies -- did the majority pick the under. And most of the results weren't close to a 50/50 split -- 13 poll results ended up at 75 percent or higher on the over.

Of course, not all these teams can exceed their predicted win totals. Did we set the win totals too low? No. The win totals presented in the polls added up to 2,444, which is actually 14 more wins than the actual break-even point of 2,430. Yes, vote totals were undoubtedly skewed by the fact that some readers only voted for their favorite team and fans tend to be more optimistic about their own team.

Still ... we're going to be wrong. Somewhere.

Our final over/under poll: the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers went all-in for Prince Fielder's final season in Milwaukee and came up two wins short of the World Series. Behind MVP Ryan Braun and Fielder's 38 home runs, the Brewers ranked fifth in the NL with 721 runs. They ranked sixth with 638 runs allowed. With 96 wins, they exceeded their projected wins total by six. Closer John Axford was a key to that: After blowing two saves by April 18, he converted 43 in a row the rest of the regular season.

Fielder is gone, replaced in the lineup by Mat Gamel, who hit .310/.372/.540 at Nashville. The Brewers did sign former Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez, who hit .306 with 26 home runs. Gamel won't replace Fielder but Ramirez should be a big step up from Casey McGehee, who posted a terrible .280 OBP in 600 PAs. The Brewers also replaced Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop with Alex Gonzalez, which should be a defensive upgrade. We all know about Braun's adventures in the offseason. Corey Hart may begin the season on the DL after surgery to repair torn knee cartilage.

The Brewers return their five-man rotation, with Yovani Gallardo scheduled to start Opening Day and Zack Greinke looking impressive this spring (28 strikeouts, two walks). Shaun Marcum has been bothered by a stiff right shoulder in camp but the latest news indicates he'll be ready to start the season. Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson fill out the rotation. The bullpen includes set-up man Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Veras, Kameron Loe, Marco Estrada and Manny Parra.

The oddsmakers have the over/under at 85 wins. Can the Brewers survive the loss of Prince?

Can the Texas Rangers make it back to a third consecutive World Series?

They won 96 games in 2011, scoring 855 runs (third in the AL) and allowing 677 (fifth in the AL). While the Rangers' offense gets most of the attention, you can make the argument that once you adjust for home ballpark, the Rangers had the best pitching staff in the league.

The Rangers, of course, made changes to their rotation anyway, losing C.J. Wilson to the Angels as a free agent but signing Yu Darvish. They're giving closer Neftali Feliz the chance to start, moving Alexi Ogando back to the bullpen. Ogando posted a solid 3.51 ERA as a starter, so Feliz may be hard-pressed to match that. The Rangers will be hoping Derek Holland's second-half surge was for real: He went 10-1 with a 2.77 ERA over his final 15 starts.

The bullpen should be solid again, with Ogando, Mike Adams and closer Joe Nathan. Scott Feldman is around to provide depth in the rotation and pen as needed.

The Rangers bring back the same lineup. Can Mike Napoli repeat his monster season? Will Michael Young hit .338 again? Will Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre each hit 32 home runs again? Will Josh Hamilton stay healthy?

The over/under is 91 wins. I have a feeling the over will win in a landslide.

The New York Yankees were the best team in the American League in 2011. They won 97 games. Their projected runs scored and allowed totals of 867 and 657 project to 101 wins. They came up short in the playoffs, done in by a lack of timely hitting.

Can this team win 100 games in 2012?

After all, they've brought in Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Pineda and maybe Andy Pettitte for the rotation. Maybe Alex Rodriguez will play more than 99 games and hit better than .276/.362/.461. Maybe Mark Teixeira will rebound from a .248/.341/.494 season. Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano were MVP candidates a season ago and could be again.

So ... 100 wins is a possibility. But why not 100 wins?

1. They brought in some nice starters, but remember that Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia were good last year, combining for a 3.82 ERA over 51 starts and 311 innings. Kuroda and Pineda may be better, but they're also moving from good pitcher's parks to Yankee Stadium.

2. The bullpen was awesome. And we don't just mean Mariano Rivera. David Robertson had a 1.08 ERA, Luis Ayala 2.09, Cory Wade 2.04. Boone Logan pitched well. The pen is likely to regress a bit.

3. Age of the lineup. A-Rod will be 36, Jeter 38, Teixeira 32, Raul Ibanez 40. Granderson and Nick Swisher are 31.

What do you think? The over/under is 93.5 wins.

Four teams to go in our over/under polling. Today: the Chicago Cubs. New front office, new manager ... a lot of the same players.

In 2011, the Cubs went 71-901, right around their projected record of 70 wins. They scored 654 runs, eighth in the National League. They allowed 756, 14th in the league.

The big improvement will have to come from a rotation that posted the worst ERA in the NL at 4.79. Not surprisingly, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer worked to bring in some starters with only Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster assured of rotation spots. Carlos Zambrano is gone and Randy Wells and Rodrigo Lopez are likely headed to the bullpen or waiver wire. Look for newcomers Paul Maholm and Chris Volstad plus converted reliever Jeff Samardzija to begin as the five starters, with Travis Wood, another offseason acquisition, in the pen. If the Cubs can find two decent starters from this foursome then it's a good sign for 2012 ... and the future.

On offense the Cubs lose their best hitter from 2011 in Aramis Ramirez and their second-best on-base guy in Carlos Pena. David DeJesus, Rockies washout Ian Stewart and Triple-A vet Bryan LaHair step in as regulars, but outside of Starlin Castro there isn't a sure thing in the lineup.

The over/under is 74 wins. Baby steps.

The Seattle Mariners ... baseball like it was played in the dead-ball era! Only minus all the stolen bases, bunts, spikes-up slides and players charging into the stands against boisterous hecklers.

The Mariners scored 513 runs in 2010, lowest in the majors by 74 runs -- lower than any National League team and one of the worst performances relative to league average in major league history. In 2011, they increased that total all the way to ... 556. Still worst in the majors.

So is there hope? After all, the Mariners allowed 675 runs in 2011, fourth-best in the American League. Let us count the reasons:

1. Jesus Montero develops into a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat.
2. Justin Smoak had a disappointing first full season, but played through a thumb injury and the unexpected death of his father. He turns into a .275, 25-homer cleanup hitter.
3. A full season and improvement from Dustin Ackley (.273/.348/.417 as a rookie).
4. A better performance from Ichiro Suzuki (.272/.310/.335), who will begin the season in the No. 3 hole.
5. Better performance from Chone Figgins ... or his quick release, with Kyle Seager and/or Alex Liddi getting action at third base.
6. John Jaso ends up with the bulk of playing time at catcher and hits like he did in 2010 with Tampa Bay.
7. Franklin Gutierrez ... well, he can't be as bad as 2011 (.224/.261/.273).

The Mariners hit .233 in 2011. The offense will be better.

But what about the pitching? The team loses 65 quality starts from Michael Pineda, Doug Fister and Erik Bedard. Jason Vargas, Hector Noesi, Blake Beavan and Kevin Millwood begin in the rotation alongside Felix Hernandez, with Japanese free agent Hisashi Iwakuma starting the season in long relief and top prospect Danny Hultzen in Double-A. The bullpen has question marks behind closer Brandon League.

Mariners fans have some optimism after two miserable seasons, but that optimism envisions something like a .500 record with the right breaks. The over/under is 72.5 wins.

Let's do some position-by-position analysis for the Boston Red Sox. They won 90 games a year ago. I went through all the numbers and can't come up with a solid reason why they won't win more games in 2012.

Catcher: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Saltalamacchia and the now retired Jason Varitek provided a mixed bag of offense in 2011. Red Sox catchers tied with the Braves for the major league lead with 29 home runs and with the Diamondbacks with 96 RBIs. On the other hand, they ranked 24th in OBP. You'd like to see improvement in the on-base category from Salty and new backup Kelly Shoppach, and that's actually a decent possibility as the two can be used as a strict platoon from their best sides (Salty versus right-handers, Shoppach versus left-handers). I can see the duo producing close to 30 home runs again but with a slightly better OBP. Plus five runs.

First base: Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzalez created about 129 runs a year ago -- seventh-most in the league -- and did so despite a sore shoulder that didn't allow him to fully power through the ball (he had surgery after the 2010 season). It's hard to imagine him improving on a .338/.410/.548 line, but he did hit 27 home runs after averaging 36 for the Padres from 2008 through 2010. I can see any power increase offset by a drop in batting average. No change.

Second base: Dustin Pedroia
Pedroia is about as consistent as they come: His wOBA the past four seasons: .382, .360, .377, .377. More of the same.

Third base: Kevin Youkilis
Now 33, Youkilis has battled injuries the past two seasons, including a lower back strain and hip issues that led to two DL stints, 42 games missed and a .258 average in 2011. While he's in that permanent "red flag" category, he does appear to be in better shape (for now) and I'll predict a small spike. Let's go plus eight runs.

Shortstop: Mike Aviles
Red Sox shortstops -- mostly Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie -- combined for a .279/.330/.401 line, decent production for the position (10th in the majors in OPS). Aviles should get the bulk of the playing time there with Nick Punto filling in. Aviles has been up and down in his career, playing well in 2008 and 2010, but hitting .255/.289/.409 in 2011 between the Royals and Red Sox. ZiPS forecasts a .301 OBP from Aviles, which means a drop in production. Minus 10 runs.

Left field: Carl Crawford
Crawford will miss the start of the season after wrist surgery. There are two ways to look at this: Crawford has to hit better than the .255/.289/.405 slash marks from a year ago; on the other hand, wrist surgery sometimes take a full year to fully recover from. Red Sox left fielders created about 81 runs a year ago. Crawford was over 100 in his best years with Tampa Bay. Let's split the difference and go plus-10 runs.

Center field: Jacoby Ellsbury
The most impressive aspect of Ellsbury's power surge? He actually had a 34-game homeless streak from April through late May. Certainly, some regression would be expected. Projections range from a drop of 20 to 30 runs, prorated over the 732 plate appearances he got a year ago. So there are two issues here: How much decline and how much will he play? (He led the AL in PAs.) Let's go assume good health but still go minus-25 runs.

Right field: Cody Ross/Ryan Sweeney
Boston right fielders were terrible in 2011: .233/.299/.353, about 62 runs created. Ross and Sweeney won't bring back memories of Dwight Evans, but they should do better than 62 runs created. Let's add 13 runs.

Designated hitter: David Ortiz
Now 36, projections systems foresee decline from Ortiz after his big 2011 that included a .309 average (his best since 2007) and 29 home runs. Let's say nine runs worse.

Overall, it's a similar projection of runs scored, just coming in different areas -- 14 fewer runs.

Now to the pitching. We'll begin by breaking down the 2011 rotation into five groups of starters and their average runs allowed per nine innings.



And now to 2012, using projected numbers ...



Last year's rotation pitched 940 innings and allowed 469 runs. Not only was the back of the rotation terrible, but it meant Red Sox starters threw the second-fewest innings in the AL. The five guys listed above give us 138 starts, 824 innings and 367 runs allowed. As you can see, projection systems predict some decline for Beckett off last year's 2.89 -- but remember, that was not only a career-low but it came a season after a a 5.78 ERA. Bard is a wild-card but based on his numbers as a reliever projects as a decent starter. We'll fill out the rotation with the 24 missing starts and project an average of 5.5 innings per start and 5.4 runs allowed per nine innings.

This gives us:

2011: 940 innings, 516 runs allowed
2012: 956 innings, 446 runs allowed

The Boston bullpen was pretty good in 2011, ranking fourth in the AL in ERA (3.67) and allowing 3.9 runs per nine over 517.1 innings. But the club has lost Jonathan Papelbon (2.94 ERA), Bard (3.33 ERA) is in the rotation and Alfredo Aceves (93 innings, 2.03 ERA in relief) will be hard-pressed to match his 2011 numbers. Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon join Aceves at the back of the pen with Franklin Morales likely serving as the top lefty. Overall, I'm going to project a slight decline, mostly due to Aceves' regression. We'll give the pen 501 innings and 4.2 runs per nine -- 234 runs allowed.

Overall, that gives the Red Sox 680 runs allowed to go with 861 runs scored.

That projects to a .606 winning percentage ... or 98 wins. Optimistic? Maybe so. OK, let's say we were way too bullish on Bard and give him 5.0 runs allowed per nine innings -- a full run higher. That's an additional 17 runs overall, which knocks down the win total to 96 wins. Maybe you think Buchholz won't stay healthy; OK, knock off a couple more wins.

Still too optimistic? Two things to keep in mind: (1) Boston's runs scored/runs allowed totals from a year ago project to 94 wins; (2) that was in spite of that ghastly back end of the rotation. The fourth and fifth spots will absolutely be an improvement over what Lackey and Wakefield and others gave Boston a year ago. Yes, there are some wild-cards here, but it seems too many people are focusing on the negatives and ignoring that this team still has a great offense and a potentially good rotation.

Assuming good health from Lester, Beckett and Buchholz, I believe the Red Sox are the team to beat in the AL East.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Wait ... we haven't done the Pittsburgh Pirates?

On July 25 last season, the Pirates beat the Braves to improve to 53-47. They were tied for first place in the NL Central. They had outscored their opponents by six runs, so the record wasn't a complete fluke, although many pointed to an overachieving starting rotation as cause for concern. That night, the Pirates lost that 19-inning heartbreaker to the Braves. You can't point to one game, of course, but the Pirates went 19-43 the rest of the way to finish 72-90. While a disappointing finish, it was the club's best record since 2003 and a 15-game improvement over 2010.

Much of the same cast is back. Jose Tabata and Alex Presley will assume full-time roles in the outfield alongside Andrew McCutchen with Garrett Jones moving to first base. Clint Barmes, a solid defender, was brought in to play shortstop. Once again, former No. 1 pick Pedro Alvarez will be given a chance at third base. The Pirates will need his power bat to finally meet expectations if they are to improve on the 610 runs they scored in 2011 (14th in the NL). Casey McGehee provides depth if Alvarez struggles again.

The rotation finished 11th in the NL with a 4.21 ERA. The Pirates traded for A.J. Burnett and signed Erik Bedard, although Burnett will miss a few weeks after suffering a fractured orbital bone. If healthy, those will help improve a staff that finished last in the league among strikeouts from starters. Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, Charlie Morton and Kevin Correia round out the rotation options. The bullpen posted a 3.76 ERA, 12th in the NL.

The Pirates haven't finished above .500 since 1992. The oddsmakers aren't expecting a breakthrough. The over/under is 73 wins.

The 2011 Boston Red Sox didn't have any issues scoring runs -- 875, most in the majors.

And that was with Carl Crawford having a bad season, Kevin Youkilis missing 42 games and J.D. Drew doing next to nothing.

That means, of course, the pitching was mediocre: the Red Sox allowed 737 runs, ninth in the American League. Heading into 2012, there remain issues about the rotation once you get past Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz (who has to remain healthy). The final two spots will be some combination of Daniel Bard, Aaron Cook, Alfredo Aceves, Felix Doubront and maybe Daisuke Matsuzaka later in the season.

That rotation doesn't seem appealing? Consider this, however: John Lackey and Tim Wakefield made 51 starts, pitched 297.1 innings and allowed 221 runs -- 6.7 runs per nine innings. Among 145 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Lackey had the worst ERA (6.41) and Wakefield ranked 134th (5.12). And Wakefield allowed 22 unearned runs, which lowered his ERA far below his runs allowed per nine innings.

So while the back of the rotation may not seem exciting, it almost assuredly will be an improvement over 2011. Anybody will be better than Lackey.

As for the offense, even with some regression from Jacoby Ellsbury, it should again score plenty of runs, especially if Crawford improves his .255/.284/.405 line. Right field will be a mix of Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney and Mike Aviles will likely get most of the time at shortstop.

The line is 88 wins. I'm taking the over and projecting the Red Sox to make the playoffs.

If I were to take one over bet for 2012, I'd put my money on the Cleveland Indians.

Now, I can understand why Cleveland's over/under is just 75.5 wins. After all, Cleveland hasn't finished above .500 since 2007. And while the Indians went 80-82 in 2011, their projected record was just 75-87.

Thus, the oddsmakers expect similar results and another sub-.500 record.

But I see a lot of upside here. I see Shin-Soo Choo bouncing back. I see Jason Kipnis providing nice numbers at second base. I see Carlos Santana improving in his second full season. If Travis Hafner can stay healthy and Grady Sizemore returns ... those would just be bonuses.

In Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez, the Indians could have a very nice 1-2. The back of the rotation looks to be solid if unspectacular. The bullpen in front of closer Chris Perez is deep from the left and right sides, allowing Manny Acta to match up in the middle innings.

Hey ... maybe I'm way off here. But I'm going over.

Since Chipper Jones and the Atlanta Braves seem to be today's topic of discussion, let's do their over/under.

We all know what happened in 2011: 89-73, one game short. One disaster of a final month. Their runs scored/allowed totals of 641 and 605 project to an 85-77 record, so they slightly overachieved.

But what about 2012? In one sense, the Braves are difficult to project with issues surrounding the health and status of Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens. We do know they have rotation depth, but we also know Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran are all young.

Speaking of young ... Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman are entering their age-22 seasons. Heyward's disappointing sophomore season has been well-chronicled. He's working on changing his stance and swing this spring after hitting .227. Freeman will be expected to improve on his .282/.346/.448 rookie campaign. Rookies Tyler Pastornicky and Andrelton Simmons are battling it out for the starting shortstop job. The Braves will hope Chipper stays healthy for 120 games or so and that Michael Bourn will do better than the .321 OBP he posted after coming from Houston.

Atlanta's over/under is 85.5 wins.

The Oakland A's seem to be everyone's favorite whipping boys these days. What have you done for me lately, Billy Beane?

After averaging 95 wins from 2000 through 2006 and making five playoff appearances, the A's have settled into a numbing consistency: 76, 75, 75, 81 and 74 wins. Not good enough to win, not bad enough to get premium selections in the draft.

Beane made three big splashes this offseason, trading Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill for prospects and then signing Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. That's left the A's with a rotation of Brandon McCarthy and ... well, you can probably slot rookies Jarrod Parker and Brad Peacock, maybe Bartolo Colon, maybe Tom Milone, maybe Tyson Ross, maybe Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson if they get healthy. You get the idea.

The offense has already lost third baseman Scott Sizemore to a season-ending torn ACL. Otherwise ... well, it can't get much worse considering second baseman Jemile Weeks was the only player to hit above .265 -- and that includes the five at-bat guys.

Enough picking on the A's. I don't think they'll be as bad as everyone thinks -- I heard one national radio host suggest 110 losses. But they won't lose 100. Their over/under is 73 wins.

From 2002 through 2010, the Minnesota Twins averaged 89 wins per season and made the playoffs six times. Coming off a 94-win season in 2010, they were the preseason favorites to win the AL Central.

Instead, the team collapsed, going 63-99 and finishing 32 games behind the Tigers in the division.

With Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau combining for just 621 plate appearances -- and without much production -- the Twins scored 619 runs, 13th in the AL, and hit the fewest home runs in the AL. And that wasn't just a Target Field effect; the Twins hit the second-fewest home runs on the road. Three of their four players who hit double-digit home runs are gone -- Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Jim Thome. Josh Willingham will provide some power, but unless Mauer and Morneau bounce back big, where are the Twins going to get runs?

Right now, the rotation looks like Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis. The Twins ranked last in the league in strikeouts in 2011, a problem that expects to persist in 2012. Closer Matt Capps is coming off a 4.25 ERA and just 34 strikeouts in 65.2 innings.

The over/under is 74 wins. I'll admit: I don't see a lot of positives here, even if Mauer and Morneau are healthy and produce. I'm taking the under.

If you're a high school senior and a fan of the Baltimore Orioles, you've never seen your team post a winning season.

Sure, they made the playoffs back in 1996 or 1997 when you were 2 or 3 years old, but you wouldn't actually remember that.

It's been 14 consecutive losing seasons for the Orioles. It's been six straight seasons with 90-plus losses. It's been 90-plus losses in nine of the past 11 seasons. This franchise is going through a historic period of ineptitude, and it's not all because they play in the tough AL East. No, the Orioles have simply been a joke for far too long. No wonder attendance has declined from 3.71 million in 1997 to 1.75 million in 2011.

Last season the Orioles scored 708 runs and allowed 860, ranking seventh in the AL in runs but last in runs allowed. They allowed 54 more runs than any other AL team and 98 more than the third-worst team. The Orioles brought in two left-handers from Japan, Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada, as rotation candidates. They'll hope that Brian Matusz (who has looked good so far in spring training) will rediscover the strike zone. Zach Britton and Jason Hammel will anchor the rotation.

Offensively, the Orioles should once again have power -- they ranked fourth in home runs. But low OBP guys like Adam Jones and Mark Reynolds meant the team ranked just 10th in OBP. That will have to improve for the O's to score more runs.

The over/under is 71 wins. Hey, that would be the most wins for the club since 2005.

OK, we had to do the Houston Astros at some point.

The Astros went 56-106 in 2011 -- and that was with Michael Bourn playing 105 games and Hunter Pence playing 100. Those two are gone and the Astros outfield regulars appear to be J.D. Martinez, Jordan Schafer and Brian Bogusevic.

Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris headline the rotation, with guys like J.A. Happ, Jordan Lyles, Henry Sosa and Kyle Weiland competing for the other three spots. Veteran innings eater Brett Myers was moved from the rotation to the closer role, presumably to make him a more attractive trade chip come July. The Astros allowed the most runs in the National League in 2011 so there's nowhere to go but up. Moving Myers to the pen won't help that.

Bright spots? Jose Altuve is a young second baseman, a little guy with potential at the plate. Martinez will get the chance to prove to skeptics that he's more than a fourth outfielder. Schafer, once a top prospect with the Braves, is still only 25. Maybe this is the year he learns to make better contact.

But that may be optimistic dreaming; realistically, this team is staring at 100 losses again. The new regime in Houston knew a complete overhaul of the franchise was in order, so they'll jump at the first opportunity to trade Myers or Rodriguez or Carlos Lee, in the slim chance that a team will take on a portion of their remaining contracts. The over/under is 62.5. I'll take the under.