SweetSpot: Philadelphia Phillies


    (Hal) McRae was the most aggressive baserunner of the 1970s, a man who left home plate thinking "double" every time he hit the ball. The rule allowing the second base umpire to call a double play if the runner from first leaves the baseline to take out the pivot man is known informally as the McRae Rule. He was probably thrown out on the bases, I would guess, 40 times a season. He took the lessons of the early days of the Big Red Machine, and transmitted them to the Kansas City Royals, becoming the unquestioned clubhouse leader of the team that dominated the division from 1976 through 1985.
    -- Bill James, "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract"


When Bill James wrote that, he didn't have to access to all the detailed historical play-by-play data -- compiled by researchers at Retrosheet and available at websites such as Baseball-Reference.com -- that we have now.

As it turns out, he was a little off on his guess about McRae. McRae did get thrown out a lot, but nothing close to 40 times a season. I don't think any manager would put up with a player who got thrown out once every four games for long. McRae's highest total came in 1978, when he made 18 outs on the bases, including nine at home plate. If you include caught stealing -- I'm not sure if James factored them in, but it doesn't sound like he did -- McRae's total was 26.

Here are McRae's year-by-year totals for outs on the bases during his prime years with the Royals, not including the times he was caught stealing:

1974: 5
1975: 10
1976: 12
1977: 10
1978: 18
1979: 12
1980: 7
1981: 4
1982: 9
1983: 9

So, is 18 a lot? I'll get to that in a moment, but I thought of James' quote about McRae this past season while watching some of Yasiel Puig's baserunning adventures. Like this one.

As it turns out, Puig led the majors with 15 outs on the bases in 2014, according to Baseball-Reference. Puig also got picked off three times, and those don't appear to be part of his outs-on-the-bases total. (He also got picked off/caught stealing a fourth time, which is already accounted for in his caught stealing total. He was just 11-for-18 stealing bases. Really, keeping track of baserunning statistics is somewhat complicated.)

Is Puig the Hal McRae of his generation? Obviously, Puig's aggressive baserunning leads to some positive results, like stretching this single into a double. But are the bases gained worth the bases lost?

* * * *

Obviously, or maybe not so obviously, the worst baserunners are the slowest ones, even if they don't get caught trying to stretch a single into a double or going from first to third on a single. They don't get caught because they never try for the extra base. Billy Butler of the Royals went first-to-third on a single just once in 31 tries in 2014 (the league average was 29 percent) and scored from second on a base hit just once in 10 opportunities. According to a measurement of baserunning from Baseball Info Solutions, Butler's net gain on the bases was minus-31 -- including double plays grounded into. (Baserunning gain is defined as "the total of all the types of extra baserunning advances minus the triple penalty for all the baserunning outs compared with what would be expected based on the MLB averages.") That tied with Alex Avila of the Tigers as the worst total in the majors.

Compare that to Ben Revere of the Phillies, who had the majors' highest net gain in 2014 at plus-54. Some of that is his stolen base value but he went first-to-third successfully eight out of 22 times and second to home 16 out of 24.

The slow guys don't really get called out that often even though they're hurting their team. According to Baseball-Reference's evaluation, Revere's baserunning was valued at 9.4 runs, topping Jose Reyes (9.1) and Dee Gordon (9.0) for most valuable baserunner of 2014. Casey McGehee, who grounded into 31 double plays, tops the worst list at minus-6.8 runs. Butler ranked 11th at minus-4.4 runs. Here is the bottom 10 for 2014:

1. McGehee, -6.8 runs
2. Victor Martinez, -6.4
3. Avila, -6.1
4. Brian McCann, -5.4
5. Alberto Callaspo, -5.1
6. Brayan Pena, -5.1
7. David Ortiz, -5.0
8. Matt Kemp, -4.9
9. Albert Pujols, -4.7
10. Adrian Gonzalez, -4.6

A bunch of slow guys plus one player, Kemp, who isn't regarded as a plodder. Kemp took the extra base 41 percent of the time, right at the league average of 40 percent, but a far cry from the 62 percent rate at which he advanced back in 2011. It's pretty clear that he's lost some of his speed, which is probably one reason his defensive metrics are also horrible. Kemp made nine outs on the bases, was picked off twice, was just 8-for-13 stealing bases and grounded into 21 double plays.

Since 1950 -- the first season for which there is complete play-by-play data -- Baseball-Reference's worst baserunning season belongs to Randy Milligan of the 1991 Orioles, who rated at minus-11.2 runs. That year, Milligan made six outs on the bases, was picked off twice, went 0-for-5 as a base stealer, grounded into 23 double plays and took the extra base just 25 percent of the time. Oddly, he had taken the extra base in 53 percent of his opportunities the year before, so he either lost his "speed" overnight or got injured.

The 10 worst baserunning seasons since 1950:

1. Randy Milligan, 1991 Orioles, -11.2 runs
2. Cecil Fielder, 1993 Tigers, -9.6 runs
3. J.T. Snow, 2000 Giants, -9.4 runs
4. Paul Konerko, 2006 White Sox, -9.3 runs
5. Dave Parker, 1985 Reds, -9.3 runs
6. Magglio Ordonez, 2008 White Sox, -8.7 runs
7. Kenji Johjima, 2007 Mariners, -8.5 runs
8. Harmon Killebrew, 1970 Twins, -8.5 runs
9. Billy Butler, 2010 Royals, -8.1 runs
10. Mike Piazza, 1996 Dodgers, -8.0 runs

No surprises on that list, which includes a bunch of big, slow guys who grounded into a lot of double plays and rarely took the extra base. Fielder took the extra base just 19 percent of the time in 1993, Snow 21 percent in 2000, Johjima just 17 percent in 2007. Parker was a little faster but was 5-for-18 stealing bases.

* * * *

That's one list. What I was really more interested in was the McRae/Puig issue. Is Puig hurting or helping his team on the bases? His net gain in 2014 was minus-12 bases, and that's despite grounding into just seven double plays. Puig was perhaps a little more cautious on the bases in 2014, as his extra-base advancement percentage fell from 58 in 2013 to 47. Now, that net gain isn't factoring in singles that were stretched into doubles, or doubles into triples, which is why measuring baserunning can be difficult (although Baseball Info Solutions does track this, as well).

McRae, for example, did hit a lot of doubles, twice leading his league and ranking in the top five six other times. How many of those were obtained by sheer hustle? Still, Baseball-Reference rates McRae as a negative baserunner for his career.

As it turns out, 18 outs on the bases is a lot ... but only the second-highest total in a season since 1950. In 2004, Chone Figgins of the Angels made 20 outs on the bases: five at first base, four at second, four at third and seven at home. He also got picked off once, which isn't included in his 13 caught stealings. Figgins did steal 34 bases that year and had an extra-base advancement rate of 62 percent; still, his overall baserunning value that year comes out to zero runs. All the good stuff was cancelled out by the additional outs.

Most outs on the bases since 1950:

1. Chone Figgins, 2004: 20
2. Hal McRae, 1978: 18
3. Carl Yastrzemski, 1963: 17
4. Yonder Alonso, 2012: 17
5. Dick Allen, 1965: 16
6. Pete Rose, 1977: 16
7. Vince Coleman, 1986: 16
8. Albert Pujols, 2012: 16

Then a bunch of guys at 15, including Puig in 2014.

That was the only year McRae led the league in outs on the bases. In a fun twist, his son Brian had the most outs on the bases in 1993.

Rose deserves special mention here. He led the majors in outs on the bases in 1977, 1980 and 1981. He was old by then, and apparently in denial that he had lost a step or three. In 1977, he was also thrown out at home plate 11 times, the highest single-season total since 1980.

And honorable mention for worst baserunner: Harold Reynolds, a player from the Mariners of my youth. Reynolds was pretty fast. He led the American League in 1987 with 60 stolen bases -- but he was caught stealing 20 times. He made 13 outs on the bases, including seven at home plate. He was also picked off 10 times, seven of which weren't included in the caught stealing total. Reynolds led the league in steals but his overall baserunning value was minus-3 runs.

He was even worse the next season, when he was just 35-for-64 stealing bases, made seven outs on the bases (four at home) and got picked off seven times. His baserunning value was minus-7 runs.

Is Puig the worst baserunner of all time? No. Does he make a few too many mental mistakes on the bases and hurt his team? Yes. But perhaps his future as a network analyst is secure.
Jimmy RollinsMitchell Layton/Getty Images

It was quite the exciting winter meetings. A few thoughts on some of those recent transactions ...

1. Dodgers trade Matt Kemp and Dee Gordon, acquire Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins and Yasmani Grandal.

It's risky blowing up a 94-win team, and although trading Kemp certainly helps clear some of the logjam in the outfield and gives the Dodgers additional money to play with, this series of transactions doesn't have as much to do with improving clubhouse chemistry or making manager Don Mattingly's life any easier as it does with something far less complicated: improving the team's defense.

New team president Andrew Friedman came from Tampa Bay, where the Rays turned their franchise around in 2008 by improving the team's defense and emphasizing it ever since. General manager Farhan Zaidi came from Oakland, where the A's had also made defense a bigger priority in recent seasons.

The Dodgers arguably ended up improving their defense at five positions:

Shortstop: Rollins > Hanley Ramirez
Second base: Kendrick > Gordon
Center field: Pederson > Yasiel Puig
Right field: Puig > Kemp
Catcher: Grandal > A.J. Ellis

Look at the upgrades, based on 2014 defensive runs saved per 1,200 innings:

SS: +16 runs
2B: +11 runs
CF: Puig rated as average here; Pederson projects as average or slightly above.
RF: +10 runs
C: Friedman loves pitch framing, and Grandal rates very well here while Ellis rates as one of the worst in the majors. Grandal isn't a great overall defensive catcher -- he had trouble throwing out runners -- but you have to believe the Dodgers' internal metrics rate Grandal has a sizable upgrade.

Yes, the Dodgers have lost two guys from the middle of the order, but Rollins (17 home runs in 2014) could replace much of Ramirez's power, Pederson projects as a 20-homer guy if he plays every day, and Kendrick is an offensive upgrade over Gordon. The Dodgers also replaced two injury-prone players in Ramirez and Kemp.

Los Angeles Times columnist Bill Plaschke predictably ripped the Kemp trade, but when you view the big picture, it looks like a terrific series of moves to me (not even factoring in the Brandon McCarthy signing).

2. Padres acquire Kemp.

My friend Ted the Mariners fan emailed me after hearing about this trade, saying, "We couldn't beat this?"

It may look like a low return for Kemp, but Kemp's reputation exceeds his actual value by a large factor. You're not just trading for Kemp; you're also getting his contract. He's a 30-year-old outfielder who played below-average defense even in right field and had injury issues the past three seasons. FanGraphs valued him at just 4.6 WAR total over the past three seasons and just 1.8 in 2014 despite hitting .287/.346/.506. If Kemp can stay healthy and match his second-half production over the next several years, the Padres won't regret the deal. But Kemp isn't the superstar some fans think he is.

3. Tigers acquire Yoenis Cespedes and Alfredo Simon, trade away Rick Porcello and Eugenio Suarez.

Overall, I'd say the Tigers are just spinning their wheels in the mud so far if you factor in the loss of Torii Hunter and the assumed departure of Max Scherzer. (GM Dave Dombrowski said the club will no longer negotiate with Scherzer and agent Scott Boras.) Cespedes is certainly a defensive upgrade over Hunter, and if he can spike his OBP back over .300, the Tigers will certainly roll out what should be one of the better offenses in the league:

2B Ian Kinsler
RF J.D. Martinez
1B Miguel Cabrera
DH Victor Martinez
LF Cespedes
3B Nick Castellanos
C Alex Avila
CF Anthony Gose/Rajai Davis
SS Jose Iglesias

Even then, the lineup could have OBP issues once you get past Cabrera and Victor Martinez, especially if J.D. Martinez doesn't maintain his 2014 level of play.

I don't like the Simon trade, in which Detroit gave up Suarez for one year of a pitcher who has had half of a good season in the rotation ... and that half was fueled by a low BABIP. The downgrade from Porcello to Simon could be significant, and I think Suarez is going to be the better player than Iglesias.

4. Red Sox add Porcello, Justin Masterson and Wade Miley (trade pending) to the rotation.

Boston had better have good infield defense with this group. Throw in Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly and the Red Sox should have the staff that will throw the most ground balls in the majors, probably by a large margin. (Paul Swydan of FanGraphs has a piece on Boston's ground ball fetish.)

How good is it, however? The Steamer projection system actually projects Boston to have the sixth-best rotation in the majors via WAR -- but the fifth-worst ERA. Seems like there's a wide range of potential outcomes here based on those figures and some park adjustments going on that help those WAR numbers. Everyone seems to think the Red Sox will still make another move, either signing James Shields or trading for Cole Hamels. I'm not as sure about that. Considering the lack of top starters across the AL East, the Red Sox may just stick with this group, keep all those young starters they have and see if Henry Owens, Matt Barnes or Eduardo Rodriguez develop enough to help out later in the season.

5. Marlins acquire Gordon, Mat Latos and Dan Haren -- if he doesn't retire.

The Marlins' second basemen hit .236/.303/.334 in 2014, compared with Gordon's .289/.326/.378, so it looks like a small offensive upgrade, especially when you factor in Gordon's speed. But Gordon had just a .300 OBP in the second half (when he drew only four walks). He does, however, provide dynamic speed -- an element the Marlins lacked -- and if Gordon can learn to draw a few more walks, the top of the lineup has potential:

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Which moves from the winter meetings did you like best?

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Discuss (Total votes: 1,719)

2B Gordon
LF Christian Yelich
RF Giancarlo Stanton
3B Casey McGehee
CF Marcell Ozuna
1B To be acquired?
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
SS Adeiny Hechavarria

OK, the Marlins need a better cleanup hitter. Latos is a big gamble coming off a season during which his velocity declined nearly 2 mph as he battled bone chips in his elbow and eventually had surgery. A rotation of Latos, Henderson Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi, Jarred Cosart, Tom Koehler, Haren and eventually Jose Fernandez, who is expected to return at midseason, has potential -- especially if youngsters Eovaldi and Cosart develop consistency. But it could also feature a bunch of No. 4s. Call me lukewarm on the Marlins' moves so far.

6. Angels acquire Andrew Heaney for Kendrick.

It's hard to fault the Angels for making this move, in which they picked up Heaney and his potential, plus six years of team control for Kendrick, who hits free agency after the season. But losing Kendrick without a clear replacement on hand could be a huge blow. Kendrick was the club's second-most-valuable player last season behind Mike Trout. I'll be curious to see what happens at second base, as Josh Rutledge, acquired from the Rockies, projects as about a one-win player, if that. That's a four-win decline from what Kendrick provided in 2014, and if Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker regress, the Angels will face in a tough battle for the playoffs a year after racking up the most wins in the majors in 2014.

7. White Sox acquire Jeff Samardzija, sign David Robertson and Adam LaRoche.

You have to love the job Rick Hahn has done the past two offseasons, signing Jose Abreu and stealing Adam Eaton from the Diamondbacks last year, and now landing Samardzija, Robertson and LaRoche. I'd still pick the White Sox to finish fourth in the AL Central, but if they add another starter or outfielder it could be a great four-team race.

8. Cubs sign Jon Lester, trade for Miguel Montero.

Did you know Doug Fister has a lower career ERA (3.34) than Lester (3.58) and roughly the same postseason ERA (2.57 for Lester vs. 2.60 for Fister)?

9. Twins sign Ervin Santana.

Hey, he could be the new Ricky Nolasco! (Sorry, Twins fans.) OK, Santana is probably better than Nolasco, but $54 million seems like a lot for a guy who just posted a 3.95 ERA in the National League and whose best season of the past three came in Kansas City, where he played in a good pitcher's park in front of a terrific defense that complemented his fly ball tendencies.

10. Pirates re-sign Francisco Liriano.

At three years and $39 million, this was a good deal for Pittsburgh, which got a solid starter who didn't break the payroll. You always worry about his health and the potential that he'll lose his command at any time, but he's had two good seasons now -- and pitching coach Ray Searage seems to get the most out of his starters.

11. Cardinals sign Mark Reynolds.

St. Louis definitely needed a right-handed power bat, either to platoon with Matt Adams or to come off the bench. We saw the Giants' lefty relievers exploit the Cardinals in the NLCS. Reynolds can fill in at first and third, and for $2 million, he's an inexpensive pickup who could pay small dividends.

12. A's do a bunch of stuff.

More to come on this in a separate post later today.

13. Royals sign Kendrys Morales for two years, $17 million.

What?!?!?!?
A quick follow-up to that last post. Phillies fans seem to think they can get Mookie Betts in a potential trade with the Red Sox for Cole Hamels.

It's not going to happen. Dave Cameron has been beating this drum over at FanGraphs and I agree. First off, Betts is going to be a really good. The Steamer projection system has him hitting .291/.368/.444 in 2015, worth 2.5 WAR in just 89games. Prorate that 140 games and you get 3.9 WAR. The "Bill James Handbook" is even more optimistic, projecting Betts to hit .321/.405/.493. It's possible that Betts could be as valuable as Hamels in 2015, and that's before even factoring in the salaries.

But there's another more practical reason why the Red Sox can't trade him: While they have a lot of outfielders, they have a lot of outfielders with question marks. Consider:

--Hanley Ramirez. Who knows how the transition to left field will actually work; as I've written, it's almost unprecedented for a shortstop at Ramirez's age to transition into a full-time outfielder and have a second half of his career there (Robin Yount did it, but he's the exception). It's possible he'll be just as bad defensively in the outfield as he is at shortstop. Plus he's injury-prone. It's highly likely that in 2016, Ramirez or Pablo Sandoval will be playing first base or Ramirez eventually succeeds David Ortiz as the DH.

--Yoenis Cespedes. Only signed for one more year. Likely trade bait. If not, could depart as a free agent after the season.

--Rusney Castillo. He could be good. He could be mediocre. He could be less than mediocre. There's no guarantee he's a long-term starter in center field.

--Jackie Bradley Jr. Gold Glove-quality center fielder but huge questions at this point about his bat.

--Shane Victorino. Old and broken. Only signed for one more year as is.

--Allen Craig. Not sure what happened to him. Even if the bat bounces back, he's best suited for first base anyway.

--Daniel Nava. Solid, underrated performer but turns 32 in February.

The Red Sox will keep Mookie Betts because he's going to be an All-Star but they also need to keep him because they'll need him in the outfield.
Jimmy Rollins is apparently headed to the Dodgers. Who's next? It's so much fun pretending to be Ruben Amaro.

1. Cole Hamels to the Mariners for P Taijuan Walker, P Brandon Maurer and IF Ketel Marte

Phillies fans are expecting a huge haul for Hamels, but I think they're expecting too much, considering the trade partner is trading for Hamels and Hamels' contract. It's one thing to sign Jon Lester to a huge deal, but if you trade for Hamels -- who is owed at least $96 million over four years or as much as $114 over five, if his option vests -- do you want to pay $100 million in salary and give up three premium prospects? That's a huge price to surrender, no matter Hamels' value.

Everyone seems to think Hamels will go to the Red Sox or maybe the Dodgers, so let's think outside the box here. The Mariners are focused on improving their offense, and understandably so, but there's no need to lock in on improving just one area. Improvement is improvement, no matter where it comes from, and the Mariners have reasons to be concerned about their current rotation.

The 2014 Mariners did tie for second in the American League in rotation ERA, but consider: (A) They play in a pitcher's park and ranked 16th in FanGraphs WAR; (B) Felix Hernandez had arguably his best season and will probably regress a bit; (C) Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma have been ridden pretty hard the past two seasons, and both looked fatigued down the stretch; (D) Walker and James Paxton have potential but have dealt with minor injury issues; (E) They received surprisingly solid seasons from Chris Young (now a free agent) and Roenis Elias and acquired JA Happ, who is unlikely to be as good as Young was.

So let's see Jack Zduriencik pull a shocker and get Hamels to go alongside King Felix. It's a big contract to take on, considering the money Hernandez, Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz will be getting, as well as Kyle Seager's recent $100 million extension. But Seager doesn't start making huge money until 2018, which will be the final year for Cruz and possibly Hamels. With the Astros and Rangers likely tougher in 2015, the Mariners need to make big strides to make the playoffs in 2015. The Phillies get a potential top-of-the-rotation starter in Walker, a power arm in Maurer (whom they could try as a starter or use as a bullpen weapon alongside Ken Giles) and the slick-fielding Marte, Seattle's No. 3 prospect, according to Baseball America.

[+] EnlargeChase Utley
Scott Rovak/USA TODAY SportsChase Utley hit 11 homers and drove in 78 runs last season.
2. Chase Utley to the Nationals for OF Steven Souza and C Jakson Reetz

The Nationals need a second baseman, and though Utley has veto rights over any trade as a 10-and-5 guy, you have to think he'd consider leaving Philly at this point. Utley makes $15 million in 2015 and has $15 million options each of the next three seasons that vest if he gets 500 plate appearances. Souza was a third-round pick way back in 2007 who suddenly exploded in 2014 to hit .350/.432/.590 with 18 home runs and 26 stolen bases. He's ready for the majors but currently blocked in Washington. Reetz is a flyer on a low-level catching prospect.

3. Jonathan Papelbon and cash to the Tigers for P Buck Farmer

Dave Dombrowski has to upgrade his bullpen at some point, doesn't he? The Papelbon contract has been a waste of money for the Phillies, but not because he hasn't pitched well. He's had a 2.45 ERA over his three seasons in Philly, but with the emergence of Giles, he's an unnecessary luxury. He's owed $13 million in 2015 with a $13 million vesting option for 2016. Farmer, Baseball America's No. 3 Tigers prospect (a weak system), jumped from Class A to the majors last season and made just four starts in the upper levels in the minors. He owns a solid-average fastball for a right-hander with good control who needs more seasoning in the minors. In any Papelbon deal, the Phillies will likely have to eat some of the salary.

4. Marlon Byrd to the Orioles for P Tim Berry and a low-level prospect

Byrd's late-career renaissance continued in 2014, with another solid season in which he hit .264/.312/.445 with 25 home runs. With an $8 million contract for 2015 and potential vesting option for 2016, consider him a less expensive option than Matt Kemp or Justin Upton at nearly the same rate of production.

With the losses of Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, the Orioles will be looking for an outfielder, especially one in their pay range. Berry is a 23-year-old lefty who pitched in Double-A in 2014 and ranked No. 7 on Baseball America's prospect list for the Orioles. He owns a low 90s fastball, curve and changeup. He projects as a back-end starter but is close to the majors.

5. Carlos Ruiz to the Rangers for IF Luis Sardinas and a low-level pitcher

Ruiz turns 36 in January but remains a solid defensive catcher who contributes at the plate. If the Rangers consider themselves contenders in 2015 (after all their injury issues), they'll need to upgrade at catcher. Signed for two more years at $8.5 million per year, Ruiz is the perfect stopgap until prospect Jorge Alfaro is ready. Sardinas reached the majors last year at 21; he's a good glove at shortstop but with little power at the plate and no room to play in Texas with Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor and Jurickson Profar ahead of him. He and Marte could eventually form a slick-fielding double-play combo.

SweetSpot TV: Red Sox deals

November, 24, 2014
Nov 24
3:20
PM ET


Eric and I discuss the Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval signings. Others have analyzed the moves here on ESPN.com (and here's Eric's fantasy impact for the two), but I'm a little more skeptical on how all this plays out for the Red Sox.

If Ramirez moves to left field, isn't it possible his defense will be just as bad there as at shortstop? And Sandoval, while a nice player, has made his name more in the postseason than the regular season.

Beyond that, let's remember that the Red Sox are starting from a bad place: They were 71-91, and that included 42 starts from Jon Lester and John Lackey, two starters not currently on the team. Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly are your top two guys right now, which means the Red Sox don't have an above-average major league starter on the roster. Yes, they have offensive depth to deal from, but are Yoenis Cespedes or Mike Napoli really going to bring an elite starter back in return? Shane Victorino? Jackie Bradley Jr.? I don't think so; the Mariners, for example, aren't going to trade Hisashi Iwakuma for Cespedes, one rumor that's been that out there.

Anyway, this is just the beginning of Boston's offseason. The Cole Hamels rumors will certainly heat up and the Red Sox may still bring Lester back as a free agent. We'll see how it all plays out over the next few weeks.


We've looked at Jon Lester and Nelson Cruz in our half-full/half-empty series. Now let's examine the pitcher everyone views as the prize of the 2014-15 free agents, right-hander Max Scherzer.

MLB Free Agency: Half-Full, Half-Empty Logo
Scherzer hits free agency at age 30, coming off a great two-year run with the Detroit Tigers in which he went 39-8 with a 3.02 ERA. The 2013 Cy Young winner, Scherzer really pitched just as well in 2014 and finished fifth in the voting.

Scherzer reportedly turned a six-year, $144 million extension from the Tigers last offseason. Colleague Jim Bowden predicts that Scherzer will receive a seven-year, $189 million contract, an average annual value of $27 million. If that contract materializes, it would be the second-largest total ever given to a pitcher, behind the $215 million deal Clayton Kershaw signed with the Dodgers.

Scherzer is a Scott Boras client, so don't expect him to sign anytime soon. Obviously, all the big-market teams will be rumored to have interest. Will Scherzer be a good investment?

HALF-FULL

With Scherzer, you start with the stuff. Few pitchers have the raw arsenal that Scherzer possesses, with four plus pitches: four-seam fastball, slider, changeup and curveball. He added the curveball during the 2012 season, and the addition of that pitch is one reason Scherzer took his game to a new level.

Good pitching starts with a good fastball and fastball command. Scherzer's four-seamer has a natural tail to it and some sinking action. While its average velocity of 92.8 mph doesn't blow you away, he cranked it up as high as 98 mph in 2014, so he keeps a little in reserve when needed.

For the most part, however, he lets that natural movement work. He does tend to throw the pitch up in the zone, but it's still an effective pitch: It sets up the off-speed stuff, and he generates a good share of strikeouts with it. Look at how he pitches with his fastball to left-handed batters:

Scherzer Heat Map ESPN Stats & Info


Lefties have hit .226/.292/.380 against Scherzer's fastball the past two seasons. When you limit damage against your fastball, it makes your other pitches that much tougher. Scherzer has 143 strikeouts the past two seasons against left-handers with his fastball, most in the majors. (Felix Hernandez is second with 124, but only four other pitchers have 100.) As a comparison, Stephen Strasburg struggles somewhat against lefties because his fastball isn't a great strikeout weapon against them, with just 59 K's over the past two years.

With pitchers, you always worry about injuries, but Scherzer has made 30-plus starts in each of his six seasons in the majors. He's also a student of the game. As Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports wrote last offseason:
Max Scherzer is meticulous, the sort of person who sees baseball as a game of centimeters, because inches are too big. Every so often, in the middle of a long season, Scherzer will pore over video of his last start, pause it mid-delivery and vow to change things. A centimeter can mean that much.

His right arm is his gift and his treasure, and if ever he notices his elbow above his shoulder line -- even a hint of the dreaded Inverted W, which is correlated with though not scientifically proven to cause arm injuries -- he corrects it. Little gets past Scherzer.

"You've seen in history guys blow out that way," he told Yahoo! Sports last September. "I've never been a guy who does it, but every now and again, it'll creep higher than that plane, and I'm very cognizant of it."


Seven years is a long time. A lot can happen. But his health history is a big plus.

Then there's this: Scherzer has put up good numbers while pitching in front of some lousy defenses in Detroit. The Tigers were 28th in MLB in defensive runs saved in 2014, 28th in 2013, 25th in 2012. Imagine him pitching in front of a good defense, or in the National League, where he'd get to mow through the bottom of the lineups.

HALF-EMPTY

You want to make Scherzer the second-highest-paid pitcher in the game? A guy with one career complete game? A guy who has had an ERA under 3.00 exactly once in his career, and even then it was barely under, at 2.90? A guy who has been just OK in the postseason with a 3.73 ERA? A guy who has pitched 220 innings just once in a season? Hernandez, by comparison, has topped 230 innings five times.

There's no denying Scherzer's stuff or strikeout rates, but he's had the luxury of being the No. 2 guy behind Justin Verlander in the Detroit rotation. Can he handle the pressure of a megadeal? Is he the guy who will take the ball in a big game and give you eight innings? Pitch efficiency has never been Scherzer's strength, which is why he's been more of seven-inning starter than an eight- or nine-inning guy.

You also have to factor in leaving Comerica Park, or the AL Central. Scherzer does pitch up in the zone, so he will give up fly balls. Comerica isn't the supreme pitchers' park everyone thinks, but it's been about average in giving up home runs, and more than a few balls hit to that deep area in center and right-center would have left other parks. Pitching in Wrigley Field might not be as enjoyable as pitching in Comerica. Plus, Scherzer has faced a lot of weak offenses through the years in that division.

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As for Detroit's defense, it doesn't necessarily explain why the only season Scherzer has had a below-average batting average on balls in play was his Cy Young season (.260 that year, but above .300 every other season). For example, in hitter's counts in 2014, Scherzer allowed a .380 average -- 74th among 88 qualified starters. His OPS allowed in hitter's counts ranked 86th. Basically, when he was behind, he got hammered; only Jason Hammel allowed a higher slugging percentage. It appears that Scherzer just grooves too many pitches when he's behind in the count, and that explains why his hit rate is high given his strikeout rate.

And, of course, you simply can't ignore this: Seven years for a pitcher in his 30s ... how often does that work out? Maybe you reap the rewards of two or three great seasons, but we've seen seemingly durable pitchers like CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee go down with injuries. Pitchers get hurt.

What do you think? Half-full or half-empty?

Buster Olney takes a good look at the saturated market for DH types and writes this about Ryan Howard:
He is being pushed hard in the market by the Phillies. Rival executives perceive the Phillies will do whatever it takes to dump him, up to and including eating the vast majority of his salary.


Howard is owed $25 million in 2015 and 2016 and has a $10 million buyout for 2017, so that's $60 million for two years of his service.

The question: Is Howard worth a gamble even if the Phillies eat his entire salary other than the $500,000 major league minimum?

After all, Howard hit 23 home runs and drove in 95 runs in 2014. He ranked fourth in the National League in RBIs! So he must have some value, right? Maybe?

Here's another stat to consider. Fewest RBIs from the DH spot, American League teams:

    Seattle 50
    Kansas City 59
    Tampa Bay 61
    New York 63
    Oakland 70
    Cleveland 77
    Texas 78


Only four teams -- Boston, Detroit, Minnesota and the Angels -- received at least 95 RBIs from their DHs.

So maybe the Phillies can find a taker for an "RBI guy" like Howard?

Not so far. We know RBIs are context-driven. Howard hit cleanup in 137 of his 146 starts. He had guys getting on base in front of him. In fact, guess who led the major leagues in plate appearances with runners on base? Yep, Ryan Howard. He batted 345 times with at least one runner on and ranked third overall behind Casey McGehee and Justin Upton in total number of runners on base while batting.

No, the RBIs don't tell the story of Howard's value as a hitter. The more important stat is Howard's .223/.310/.380 batting line. That's good for a wOBA of .302 (weighted on-base average, not park-adjusted). Baseball-Reference estimates that Howard created five runs fewer than the average hitter given his plate appearances.

Now, we're still left with five AL teams that received worse production from their DH position: Seattle (.254 wOBA), Oakland (.281), Kansas City (.288), New York (.291) and Texas (.300). The Yankees will presumably have to rotate Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez through the DH position. The Rangers will have Prince Fielder back, presumably to share time at DH and first base with Mitch Moreland, although it may be time to punt on Moreland. The A's have John Jaso, but Howard is a possible fit. The Royals have to decide on re-signing Billy Butler. The Mariners are hot for Victor Martinez.

And as Olney wrote, there are many potential DH guys out there, including Martinez, Butler, Mike Morse, Kendrys Morales and, as a trade possibility, Evan Gattis.

The lure in Howard is that he would be cheap if the Phillies pick up $55 million-plus of that $60 million. He's not good and definitely should not be considered for first base, but the state of DH production in 2014 was so poor that it wouldn't shock me if an AL team took a chance on him. Still, it seems unlikely in an era in which most teams prefer to rotation their other position players through the DH spot.

* * *


Then there's Braves center fielder B.J. Upton, still owed $46 million over the next three seasons. David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution writes:
The Braves would like to get out from under at least part of the approximate $46 million they owe Upton over the next three seasons by including him in a deal for a player that other teams want, such as slugger Evan Gattis. A scout from one American League said Tuesday that his team would love to have Gattis but wouldn’t consider taking on B.J. Upton or any part of his contract.

In two seasons with the Braves, Upton has hit .198 with 21 homers, 61 RBIs, a .279 OBP and a .593 OPS, and had a franchise-record 173 strikeouts in 519 at-bats in 2014.

"It’s been a complete collapse offensively," said John Hart, the Braves’ new president of baseball operations.
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Upton has been worth minus-1.3 WAR and minus-0.3 WAR the past two seasons. Factor in that his defensive metrics in center field have never been good (minus-7, minus-4, plus-1 and minus-7 defensive runs saved since 2011) and he doesn't even have value as glove-only center fielder. Does that sound like a player you want to take on?

Some have mentioned the possibility of trading one bad contract for another, such as Edwin Jackson of the Cubs. But Jackson is owed only $22 million over the next two seasons, less than half of Upton's total.

Upton is only 30. But if he's going to turn things around, you have to think it has to come in Atlanta. I just can't see another team trading for him and thinking he's going to be their center fielder.

What do you think? Is there any chance Howard and Upton get traded this winter?

End-of-season Haiku for every team

November, 7, 2014
Nov 7
10:35
AM ET
Congrats to the Giants on their World Series victory. Let's look back at the year on the diamond for all 30 teams, in regular season win total order, through traditional Japanese verse:

ANGELS
Trout league's best player?
Shoemaker pleasant surprise
Yet steamrolled by Royals

ORIOLES
Stoic Showalter
Lost Manny, Matt, Chris but still
Ran away with East

NATIONALS
Fateful decision
In playoffs shouldn't dampen
League's best rotation

DODGERS
The Bison is back
But Clayton couldn't kill Cards
Donnie gets last chance?

CARDINALS
Death of Taveras
Casts pall on terrific year
Still class of Central

TIGERS
Flammable bullpen
Undermined starting pitching
Now replace V-Mart

ROYALS
Who needs walks, homers?
An "abundance" of bunting
Outfield defense ... whoa!

ATHLETICS
Cespedes got dealt
Team's offense dried up with it
Beane's "stuff" didn’t work

GIANTS
Three titles -- five years
Bumgarner otherworldly
Can they keep Panda?

PIRATES
Burning Cole last game
Trying for division tie
Might have cost Play-In

MARINERS
Cano did his thing
Felix, Hisashi duo
Not quite good enough

INDIANS
Kluber conquered all
But rest of staff slogged through year
Michael Brantley ... star!

YANKEES
Jeter’s farewell tour
Now A-Rod longest-tenured
Not your dad's Yankees

BLUE JAYS
All five starters had
Double-digit wins, but four
Had ten-plus losses

BREWERS
Led till late August
Won nine all of September
Lucroy's framing tops

BRAVES
Shutout 16 times
NL's next to last runs scored
Let's just watch Kimbrel

METS
DeGrom great story
Wheeler looked good, stayed healthy
Harvey's back, Big 3!

PADRES
Last in all slash stats
No-hit by Timmy ... again
Front office rebuilt

MARLINS
Stayed competitive
Despite losing Fernandez
Can they sign Stanton?

RAYS
Friedman, Maddon gone
Price dealt for cheaper prospects
Has their window closed?

REDS
Votto hardly seen
But Mesoraco burst out
Cueto stayed healthy

WHITE SOX
Abreu? Real deal
Chris Sale's elbow still attached?
Thank you, Konerko!

CUBS
Top prospects galore
Renteria won't see them
Maddon works magic?

PHILLIES
Vets went untraded
Amaro kept job somehow
Get used to last place

RED SOX
Bradley, Bogaerts ... meh
Buckholz saw ERA triple
Lester will be missed

ASTROS
Altuve a star
If only they could have signed
1st rounder Aiken

TWINS
Hughes K'd 1-8-6
Is that allowed on their staff?
Mauer's bat slumping

RANGERS
Pro-Obamacare
Given multitude of hurts
Washington bowed out

ROCKIES
League-worst ERA
Tulo missed 70 games
Fast start, then crash, burn

DIAMONDBACKS
Gibson, Towers done
Can Hale, Stewart make team rise
Like a phoenix? Eh!

Diane Firstman runs the Value Over Replacement Grit blog and is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog.
As the offseason speeds ahead into full rumor mill hysteria, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to look at each team’s biggest weakness in 2014 (excluding pitchers). This gives us a start on which positions teams might be most desperate to fill or should be desperate to fill in the upcoming months, although it doesn't include potential holes such as the Giants needing a third baseman if Pablo Sandoval doesn't re-sign or the Dodgers needing a shortstop if Hanley Ramirez departs.

For a quick assessment of value at each position, I used wins below average, via Baseball-Reference.com, which includes both offense and defensive value at the position.

1. Detroit Tigers 3B: 3.7 wins below average

This might surprise you since Nick Castellanos had a solid rookie season at the plate, hitting .259 with 46 extra-base hits. But solid isn't the same as good, as the Tigers ranked 18th in the majors in wOBA at third base. But the biggest liability here was Castellanos' defense: His -30 defensive runs saved ranked worst in the majors -- at any position.

Fix for 2015: It's still Castellanos' job. The Tigers have to hope for improvement in all areas.


2. Houston Astros 3B: 3.5 wins below average

Matt Dominguez started 147 games here, but the Astros ranked last in the majors with a .255 OBP and .252 wOBA at third base as Dominguez hit just .215 with 29 walks. He comes with a better defensive reputation than Castellanos, but grades out about average with the glove. First base wasn't much better for the Astros -- 3.4 wins below average as their first basemen hit .168 (!).

Fix for 2015: Dominguez is just 25, but his sophomore season showed decline instead of improvement. There is no obvious internal fix other than giving Dominguez one more shot. Could the Astros be a dark horse to sign Pablo Sandoval or Chase Headley? If only they had drafted Kris Bryant in 2013 instead of Mark Appel.

[+] EnlargeRyan Howard
AP Photo/Alex BrandonLooks like the Phillies might be stuck with Ryan Howard again in 2015.
3. Philadelphia Phillies 1B: 3.3 wins below average

No surprise here: Ryan Howard is awful, even if he did drive in 95 runs. He had a .302 wOBA -- the same as Alcides Escobar. The Phillies slugged .392 at first base -- 22nd in the majors -- and backed that up with Howard's poor defense and baserunning.

Fix for 2015: Howard will make $50 million the next two years. No, I can't see a scenario where he gets traded.


4. Cincinnati Reds RF: 3.3 wins below average

If there's an award for Most Disappointing Player of 2014, it probably goes to Jay Bruce, who hit .217 with a .281 OBP and 18 home runs. Bruce had knee surgery in early May, came back quickly and simply never got going. The knee might have played a role as he actually homered just as often on fly balls as in 2013, but his fly ball rate dropped 10 percent.

Fix for 2015: Bruce turns 28 in April, so he's certainly a good bet to bounce back.


5. Tampa Bay Rays C: 3.1 wins below average

The Rays love the defense Jose Molina and Ryan Hanigan provide, but it's hard to overcome a .191/.274/.250 batting line.

Fix for 2015: Both are under contract for 2015, and Curt Casali is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. Molina looks done as a hitter so the Rays are going to need Hanigan to catch more.


6. Atlanta Braves 3B: 3.1 wins below average

Chris Johnson and his .292 OBP and below-average defense helped this position score worst overall, but the Braves also scored lowest in the majors at center field (-2.6 wins) and second base (-2.8 wins).

Fix for 2015: The Braves foolishly signed Johnson to a long-term deal after his BABIP-driven .321 season in 2013. While the salaries aren't prohibitive, the deal also means Johnson probably returns in 2015. Phil Gosselin, who hit .344 without power at Triple-A, might get an opportunity, although he hasn't played much third in his career.


7. St. Louis Cardinals RF: 3.1 wins below average

Cardinals right fielders ranked last in the majors in wOBA.

Fix for 2015: The death of Oscar Taveras means the Cardinals will probably look for a right fielder, as Randal Grichuk isn't primed for full-time duty. They could move Jon Jay back there and give Peter Bourjos more time in center; but considering the Cardinals' lack of power in 2014, look for them to seek a right fielder with some ability to hit the ball over the fence -- maybe Nelson Cruz, if they're willing to take the hit on defense, or maybe Carlos Gonzalez in a trade with the Rockies.

[+] EnlargeChris Johnson
AP Photo/David GoldmanWhat were the Braves thinking with that long-term deal for Chris Johnson?
8. Cleveland Indians RF: 3.0 wins below average

This was mostly David Murphy, who put up lukewarm numbers at the plate while seeing his defensive metrics slide (-16 defensive runs saved). The Indians also had -2.2 wins from DH (Nick Swisher had the most PAs there with 143), so if they can improve these two positions, they're a good sleeper playoff pick for 2015.

Fix for 2015: Murphy is still under contract, but he's 33; I wouldn't bet on a better year. The DH problem can be solved by just putting Carlos Santana there and maybe there's room in the budget for a first baseman like Adam LaRoche, leaving Swisher to share time in right, first base and DH.


9. Chicago Cubs LF: 2.9 wins below average

Cubs left fielders -- Chris Coghlan had the most playing time out there with 394 PAs -- actually ranked 11th in the majors in wOBA, but they were a collective -19 defensive runs saved.

Fix for 2015: Outfield prospects Billy McKinney and Albert Almora are still two to three years away from the majors, so it could be more Coghlan and Junior Lake unless the Cubs make a trade or sign a veteran free agent.


10. Miami Marlins 1B: 2.9 wins below average

Their first basemen (mostly Garrett Jones) hit .258/.313/.403, putting them 19th in the majors in wOBA, and mixed in below-average defense and a lack of speed.

Fix for 2015: Jeff Baker is still around as a potential platoon mate against LHP. Jones is signed for $5 million; so while LaRoche would also make a nice fit here, that contract might mean the Marlins stick with Jones.


11. Texas Rangers 1B: 2.8 wins below average

Obviously, Prince Fielder's neck injury was the story here as Texas first basemen hit just .216 with 16 home runs.

Fix for 2015: Hope for Fielder's return to health.


12. Chicago White Sox RF: 2.8 wins below average

Avisail Garcia was supposed to be the solution here, but he hurt his shoulder in early April and Dayan Viciedo ended up getting most of the time in right. He combined a below-average OBP with terrible defense.

Fix for 2015: Garcia returned in August and hit .244/.305/.413; he’ll get another shot. He should be an upgrade, but he's another guy who might struggle to post a league-average OBP.


13. San Diego Padres 2B: 2.8 wins below average

Jedd Gyorko would rate right behind Bruce in that most disappointing category. After signing a six-year, $35 million extension in April following his 23-homer rookie season in 2013, Gyorko collapsed and hit .210 with 11 home runs in 111 games, missing time with plantar fasciitis. He went on the DL in early June with reports saying he injured his foot in late May. He wasn't hitting before then, so it's possible he tried to play through the injury or maybe the pressure of the contract got to him or maybe he just didn't hit. Anyway, when he returned in late July, he hit .260/.347/.398 the rest of the way. (Just three home runs, however.)

Fix for 2015: Like Bruce, Gyorko is a good bounce-back candidate.

[+] EnlargeWill Middlebrooks
AP Photo/Chris BernacchiHow much longer can the Red Sox afford to wait on Will Middlebrooks?
14. Los Angeles Dodgers C: 2.7 wins below average

Dodgers catchers hit .181/.283/.261 as A.J. Ellis got on base (.322) but didn't hit otherwise, and the backups were even worse. Dodgers pitchers like throwing to Ellis, but the defensive metrics have never rated him as a good pitch-framer.

Fix for 2015: Speculation suggests the Dodgers could go after free agent Russell Martin.


15. Boston Red Sox 3B: 2.7 wins below average

Will Middlebrooks, Xander Bogaerts and Brock Holt got the majority of playing time here and Holt was the best of the three. He isn’t the 2015 solution, however. Overall, Boston's third basemen hit .211 with just 10 home runs.

Fix for 2015: With Bogaerts likely moving back to shortstop and Middlebrooks just about out of chances, the Red Sox could give Garin Cecchini, a career .298 hitter in the minors, a shot, although he has just 21 home runs in four minor league seasons. There are several third basemen out there in free agency: Sandoval, Headley, Hanley Ramirez (if you want to move him off shortstop) and Jed Lowrie (ditto). Seems Boston is likely to go after one of those guys.

OK, we'll do Part 2 of the list on Thursday.
Last week, with little fanfare and virtually no attention, the Hall of Fame announced the 10 candidates placed on its Golden Era ballot, where the 16-member committee will consider candidates from the 1947-1972 period (whether this was actually baseball's golden era is a subject for another debate).

This year's candidates include nine players and one executive: Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, Gil Hodges, Bob Howsam, Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva, Billy Pierce, Luis Tiant and Maury Wills.

In the previous Golden Era ballot in 2011, Ron Santo was the lone inductee, a long controversial Hall of Fame candidate whose election may have been helped by his death a year earlier. Twelve of 16 votes are required for election, and Kaat (10), Hodges (9), Minoso (9), Oliva (8), Boyer and Tiant (both with fewer than three) appeared on the previous ballot.

This year's committee consists of Hall of Famers Jim Bunning, Rod Carew, Ferguson Jenkins, Al Kaline, Joe Morgan, Ozzie Smith and Don Sutton; baseball executives Pat Gillick (a Hall of Famer), Jim Frey, David Glass, Roland Hemond and Bob Watson; and veteran media members Steve Hirdt, Dick Kaegel, Phil Pepe and Tracy Ringolsby.

In my opinion, there is one clear Hall of Famer in this group and maybe a second strong candidate, but let's review each candidate.

Dick Allen
Career WAR: 58.7
10-year peak (1963-1974): 54.5
Top percentage from BBWAA: 18.9
Similar players: Lance Berkman, Reggie Smith

Allen was one of the most feared hitters of his day, three times leading his league in slugging percentage and hitting .292/.378/.534 in a pitcher's era and winning the AL MVP Award with the White Sox in 1972. His career adjusted OPS of 156 is 19th all-time -- the same as Willie Mays and Frank Thomas, just ahead of Henry Aaron, Joe DiMaggio, Miguel Cabrera and Manny Ramirez. So the dude could hit. The knocks against him are that he had a relatively short career (354 home runs, 1,119 RBIs), and he was blamed for a lot of the failures of his teams.

One of things I like to consider for a borderline candidate: Is he the best player at his position not in the Hall of Fame? Allen played mostly first base but a lot of third early in his career, which complicated the question for him, but I'm not sure he's a better candidate than guys such as Keith Hernandez or John Olerud, let alone guys still on the ballot such as Jeff Bagwell and Mark McGwire.

My call: No.

Ken Boyer
Career WAR: 62.8
10-year peak (1956-1965): 56.8
Top percentage from BBWAA: 25.5
Similar players: Robin Ventura, Ron Cey, Ron Santo

A consistent 90-RBI guy for the Cardinals, Boyer was also an outstanding third baseman and the 1964 NL MVP when he led the league with 119 RBIs. Like Allen, Boyer suffers from not doing much outside of his 10-year peak. In Boyer's case, he didn't reach the majors until he was 24 -- but that was in large part due to missing the 1952 and 1953 seasons while serving in the army. What if he had reached the majors two years sooner and added 30 home runs and 150 RBIs to his career totals of 282 and 1,141?

My call: Just outside. I'm surprised he didn't fare better in the BBWAA, as he was well-liked and a respected player. There are a lot of third baseman in this area -- Boyer, Darrell Evans, Sal Bando, Cey. Santo was certainly a notch above them. Scott Rolen is similar, and he'll be on the ballot in a few years.

Gil Hodges
Career WAR: 44.9
10-year peak (1956-1965): 42.2
Top percentage from BBWAA: 63.4
Similar players: Norm Cash, Boog Powell

The much-beloved first baseman for the Brooklyn Dodgers, Hodges has, I believe, the highest vote total from the BBWAA for a player who never eventually made it into the Hall of Fame. He also earns bonus points for managing the 1969 Mets to a World Series title.

Bill James just wrote this on his site about Hodges:
You mentioned an eight-year run for Hodges ... he posted an OPS+ of 132 over that period, with the good defense and team success. Is that kind of success particularly rare? It doesn't seem that it is. Actually, you can find a guy like that in almost every era. Starting with Garvey ... Steve Garvey had an eight year run with an OPS+ of 129 (1973-80) ... he was a good defender. His teams won. Keith Hernandez had eight years at a 139 OPS+ (1979-86). He was a good defender who played on good teams, too. Will Clark had a ten-year run at a 143 OPS+ ... 1986-95. John Olerud has a ten-year run with an OPS+ of 137, 1993-02. Mark Teixeira picks up after Olerud ... he clocks a 136 OPS+ for eight years, from 2004-2011. Don't know about his defense, but he was on a lot of winners. Just taking a quick look, I was able to find a player like Hodges active from 1973 to 2010.


My call: No.

Bob Howsam
Howsam's claim to fame was building the Cincinnati Reds' Big Red Machine dynasty of the 1970s. He was the Reds' general manager from 1967 to 1977. He hired Sparky Anderson as manager and made two major trades in acquiring Joe Morgan and George Foster, although guys such as Pete Rose, Johnny Bench and Tony Perez were already in the organization when he came over from the Cardinals (where he had acquired Orlando Cepeda and Roger Maris, who helped the Cardinals win the 1967 World Series). Howsam was, interestingly, also one of the founding owners of the Denver Broncos, along with his brother and father, although they sold the franchise after its first season.

My call: No. Is he the most deserving executive not in the Hall of Fame? He certainly built a powerhouse in the Reds, but he was also extremely disliked by players in both St. Louis and Cincinnati (although you can argue his job wasn't to be liked by the players). He was a hard-liner against the Players Association, but then again most execs from that period were. In the end, we probably have enough executives and managers in for now. Let's get more deserving players in there before worrying about GMs.

Jim Kaat
Career WAR: 45.4
10-year peak (1966-1975): 36.7
Top percentage from BBWAA: 29.6
Similar players: Tommy John, Jamie Moyer, Bert Blyleven

Kaat won 283 games, including 20 games three times. He finished fifth in the MVP voting the year he won 25 games and finished fourth once in the Cy Young. He was a good pitcher, but not really in the same class as Blyleven, who has a career WAR of 96.5. Kaat ranked in the top 10 in his league in WAR for pitchers just five times.

My call: No. Kaat, of course, has hung on in the game forever as a broadcaster, still doing games for MLB Network at 75 years old. Considering he had 10 votes last time, it wouldn't surprise me if he gets in.

[+] EnlargeMinnie Minoso
Robert Riger Collection/Getty ImagesMinnie Minoso was a seven-time All-Star.
Minnie Minoso
Career WAR: 50.1
10-year peak (1951-1960): 50.1
Top percentage from BBWAA: 21.1
Similar players: Carl Furillo, Enos Slaughter, Tony Oliva

Here's what I wrote three years ago:

Minoso's first full season in the majors came in 1951, when he was 25 years old. He hit .326, scored 112 runs, led the league in triples and stolen bases and finished fourth in the MVP vote. From 1951 until 1962 (when he fractured his skull and wrist running into a wall, and later fractured his forearm when hit by a pitch) Minoso had the seventh-highest WAR among all major league position players, trailing only Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Eddie Mathews, Stan Musial, Hank Aaron and Ernie Banks. In other words, for an 11-year span, he was one of the best players in baseball.

Minoso did everything well: He hit for average, drew walks, had speed, hit for some power, was durable and was regarded as a good outfielder (the Gold Glove award wasn't created until he was 31, but he won three). The writers of his time knew he was an excellent player -- he finished fourth in the MVP voting four times, an impressive achievement considering he never played for a pennant winner.

Of course, his career numbers may not look impressive, but remember: His career didn't start until he was 25 because of the color barrier. He was the first black player for the White Sox. Considering he was already a star as a rookie, what if he had reached the majors when he was 21? Now you're adding another 700 hits or so, 400 runs and 350 RBIs to his career totals and 15 seasons as one of the best players in baseball. It seems to me more than unfair to discount Minoso's totals simply because he got a late start in the major leagues due to racial circumstances.

Minoso is 85 years old and still going strong. Put the man in Cooperstown. He deserves it.


My call: He's now 88 years old and still deserving of Cooperstown.

Tony Oliva
Career WAR: 43.0
10-year peak (1964-1973): 42.8
Top percentage from BBWAA: 47.3
Similar players: Carl Furillo, Pedro Guerrero, George Bell

I got an email from Jessica Petrie, communications director for the VoteTonyO campaign, a grassroots organization trying to help get Oliva elected to the Hall of Fame. Oliva was a terrific pure hitter who won three batting titles with the Twins but had his last good season at age 32 because of knee problems. In some ways, Oliva's career is similar to another former Twins outfielder:

Oliva: .304/.353/.476, 222 HR, 947 RBI
Kirby Puckett: .318/.360/.477, 207 HR, 1,075 RBI

Puckett sailed into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. He had some advantages over Oliva: He played center field and led his team to two World Series titles. But as hitters, they were similar. But Puckett is a weak Hall of Famer, not a strong one, so that one comparison shouldn't help Oliva's case too much.

My call: No.

Billy Pierce
Career WAR: 53.1
10-year peak (1950-1959): 43.7
Top percentage from BBWAA: 1.9
Similar players: Vida Blue, Luis Tiant, Catfish Hunter

I'm glad to see Pierce's case get some consideration. An underrated star of the 1950s, Pierce had a career record of 211-169. The left-hander wasn't big (5-foot-10) but had a good fastball. The White Sox were overshadowed in the '50s by the Yankees but had a winning record every season from 1951 through 1967, and Pierce was one of the mainstays, helping the White Sox win the pennant in 1959. From 1951 to 1958 he had a 2.89 ERA, good for an ERA+ of 134, an eight-year peak better than many Hall of Famers. (Kaat, by comparison, never had an ERA+ that high in one season where he pitched at least 162 innings.)

My call: No. A stronger candidate than Kaat, however, despite the fewer career wins. (Pierce, by the way, is 87 and still alive, as well.)

Luis Tiant
Career WAR: 66.1
10-year peak (1967-1976): 45.8
Top percentage from BBWAA: 30.9
Similar players: Catfish Hunter, Jim Bunning, Don Drysdale

I wrote about Tiant's case back in July, when he was elected to the Hall of Very Good. He had a career record of 229-172, similar to Hunter and Drysdale. I think he was every bit the pitcher whom Drysdale was and better than Hunter -- trouble is, Tiant's best years were separated by a 20-loss season and two years of arm problems, which makes his timeline look a little odd (and he didn't play on World Series winners like those two).

My call: Three years ago I said "no" on Tiant. Again, he was a better pitcher than Kaat, even though he received much less support from the committee last time. I'm torn here, but would lean to "yes" now. Not that I have a vote.

Maury Wills
Career WAR: 39.5
10-year peak (1960-1969): 36.5
Top percentage from BBWAA: 40.6
Similar players: Luis Castillo (hey, that's his No. 1 comp on Baseball-Reference), Larry Bowa, Steve Sax

Hey, Bruce Sutter made the Hall of Fame for revolutionizing the game with his split-fingered fastball, so maybe Wills can make it for helping return the stolen base to the game in the early '50s. He stole 104 bases in 1962, which got him the MVP Award ahead of Willie Mays. That looks silly in retrospect. Anyway, Wills was a good player for a decade after not reaching the majors until he was 26, but he's not a serious Hall of Fame candidate.

My call: No.

It's a good ballot. I'd love to see Minoso get elected. My guess is that Kaat gets those extra two votes, however, and is the only guy who gets in. Which opens the door for Tommy John. ...
On Tuesday, Nelson Cruz of the Orioles hit his 40th home run, saving us from the deprivation of not having a 40-homer guy for the first time since 1982. That year Reggie Jackson of the Angels and Gorman Thomas of the Brewers tied for the major league with 39, and what a pair that was. Dave Kingman of the Mets led the National League with 37. Those three players also ranked 1-2-3 in the majors in strikeouts -- Reggie and Kingman had 156 and Stormin' Gorman had 143, so those guys were playing 2014-style baseball 32 years ago. Ahead of their time!

Reggie had been a free agent that year and George Steinbrenner once said letting Jackson leave was the biggest mistake he ever made. That's not really true. Reggie did have a big season in 1982 but that was kind of a last hurrah. He played through 1987 -- remember that return to Oakland? -- but didn't really provide much value after '82. Of course, 1982 was the Yankees tried to win with speed -- Dave Collins! Jerry Mumphrey! Ken Griffey Sr.! -- and didn't steal that many bases and went 79-83.

While nobody hit 40 in 1982, sixteen players did reach 30. This is kind of interesting: Ten of the 16 were in their 30s. This year, only 10 players have hit 30, even though we have four more teams and generally smaller parks. It’s worth noting that only seven of those 16 players from 1982 struck out 100 times, although it's also worth nothing that four of this year’s 30-homer guys are under 100 K’s – Victor Martinez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and David Ortiz. Speaking of which, Ortiz doesn’t get much credit for how he’s changed his game as he’s aged. This is a guy who struck out 145 times in 2010; even though strikeouts have risen across the sport his have decreased. Anyway, of the top 40 home run hitters this season, only seven have so far struck out fewer than 100 times.

So, yes, it’s a different era. In 1982, the average strikeouts per game was 5.0; this year it’s 7.7. Overall, there are slightly more home runs in 2014: 0.87 per game compared to 0.80 in 1982. While we have fewer 30-homer guys in 2014, teams today have more power throughout the lineup. That shouldn’t be a surprise; the banjo-hitting infielders and Omar Moreno-type outfielders have basically been phased out by players who sell out to hit 15 home runs a year. With so many strikeouts (and give credit to the pitchers as well), offense is down, as we all know: 4.07 runs per game compared to 4.30 in 1982.

That decline in offense has led to many "baseball is dying" stories of late. Yes, offense is way down compared to the steroids-infused 1990s and 2000s but the difference between 2014 and 1982 is about one run every four games. Is that really noticeable until you look at the numbers?

Anyway, the first 40-homer guy was, apropos, Babe Ruth, who cracked the 40-homer and 50-homer barrier in 1920, when he joined the Yankees and swatted 54. Rogers Hornsby became the first National Leaguer to reach 40 when he hit 42 in 1922. That was pretty impressive; only one other player in the NL even hit 20 that year. Once the 40-homer had barrier had been reached, the lowest league-leading total, not including the 1981 strike season, was Nick Etten of the Yankees in 1944 with 22. But that was during the war without many of the regular major leaguers and the baseball was made out of mud or cornstalks or something. Not including World War II, the lowest total is 23 by Ralph Kiner of the Pirates in 1946. He and Johnny Mize both hit 51 the next year, so maybe the NL was still using leftover mushballs in 1946. Could be the case. Owners were cheap back then. From 1971 through 1977, the AL actually went seven seasons in a row without a 40-homer hitter. No wonder Jim Rice beat out Ron Guidry for the 1978 AL MVP Award when he hit 46.

The season with most 40-homer guys is 1996, with 17 (long live Brady Anderson and Toddy Hundley!). There were 16-homer guys in 2000. And the top 10 seasons all occurred between 1996 and 2005. So steroids are bad but baseball is dying because we don't have enough players juicing up and hitting 40 these days. Can't win.

Of course, we have nearly double the teams now as prior to the 16-team circuit that existed before the first expansion in 1961. That year saw eight 40-homer guys between the 18 teams in the majors (including Roger Maris with 61, the only year he reached 40). Plus they played 154 games before expansion, so a 40-homer season now is kind of the same as a 38-homer season in a 154-game season (one homer every four games). Using a cutoff of 38 home runs per season, most years in the 1950s saw five or six guys reach that total, so the rate of 40-homer guys back then was pretty high.

Ruth has the most 40-homer seasons with 11. Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron and Harmon Killebrew each have eight. Sammy Sosa and Ken Griffey Jr. have seven. The most obscure 40-homer guy? Well, probably Cy Williams, who hit 41 in 1923 for the Phillies. That was a long time ago which makes him obscure. The Phillies played in Baker Bowl, maybe the greatest hitter’s park ever, a little bandbox with a short right-field fence. Guys put up crazy numbers there and Williams hit 26 of his 41 home runs at home. Williams led the NL four times in home runs, including in 1927 when he was 39 years old, which I believe makes him the oldest player to lead his league in home runs. According to this bio, after his playing days, Williams retired to his dairy farm in Wisconsin "where he worked as an architect and started a construction business. Some of the finest buildings on Wisconsin's Upper Peninsula stand today as tributes to his architectural talent."

So, thank you, Nelson Cruz, for giving us reason to mention Cy Williams.
Such a dirty word: Tanking. But there's no nice way to put it. For teams at the bottom of the standings, it's important to lose enough games to finish with one of the 10 worst records in the majors.

As Joe Sheehan wrote in his newsletter today (subscribe here):
We've talked a lot about the incentives to tank built into the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, how they've driven the way the Astros and, to a lesser extent, the Cubs have managed their organizations the past few years. If you lose more games you get higher draft picks and, in an important change from historical precedent, you're allowed to spend more money in the draft and in signing international amateurs. It's a terrible system, but you can't blame teams for playing by the rules as written.

The Cubs aren't in much danger of finishing last in MLB; they are, however, in a race to avoid triggering another CBA clause that would have a deleterious effect on their future. The teams that finish with the ten worst records in baseball have their first-round picks protected from being forfeited should they sign a free agent who has received a qualifying offer. Such teams forfeit their second-highest pick instead.


As Joe points out, it's a tight race for that 10th spot. The Phillies, with the ninth-worst record, are 66-77. The Rays and Mets, tied for the 12th-worst record, are 69-75. In between are the Padres and Reds. Now, maybe teams like the Rays, Padres and Reds aren't going to be going after the big free agents like Max Scherzer, Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez and James Shields, but the Phillies and Mets might. The Red Sox (fifth-worst record) and the Cubs (seventh-worst) certainly will be in the bidding Scherzer. But neither club wants to sign Scherzer and lose that first-round pick and the extra money allocated for the draft.

Last year, I wrote up "Tank of the night" pieces. I won't be doing that this year. But as you watch the top of the standings, keep an eye on the bottom of the standings as well.


Does anyone remember combined no-hitters? Maybe not. There have been only 11 of them. I'm a Mariners fan and they threw one a few years ago against the Dodgers and I couldn't even tell you who started that game. (It was Kevin Millwood as it turns out, and it was only two years ago -- and Millwood pitched for the Mariners?)

Anyway, a no-hitter is still a cool accomplishment and the 34,000 fans in Atlanta who saw Cole Hamels and three Phillies relievers combine for the no-hitter in the Phillies' 7-0 win on Monday can now say that they've seen one in person.

Hamels left after six innings and 108 pitches. In this day of careful handling of pitchers, if there is one reason managers will leave starters in and disregard pitch counts, it's when a no-hitter is intact. Three of the four highest pitch counts in the past five years have been no-hitters: Edwin Jackson (149 pitches), Tim Lincecum (148) and Johan Santana (134). The fourth was Brandon Morrow with 137 pitches in his 17-strikeout one-hitter against the Rays in 2010 -- the lone hit coming with two outs in the ninth.
[+] EnlargeCole Hamels
AP Photo/John BazemoreCole Hamels delivers during his six innings from the Phillies' four-man no-hitter of the Braves.

But with Hamels sitting at 108 pitches after six innings -- he'd walked five batters -- manager Ryne Sandberg could see that Hamels wasn't going the distance on an 88-degree day in Atlanta. Hamels was fine with the decision to come out. "He was pretty well spent there," Sandberg said. "The early innings had something to do with it. The stressful innings, stranding the runners at second and third a couple of times, but he wasn't going to go nine. And he ran the bases the inning before."

In another disappointing season for the Phillies, it was a rare highlight in what could be the franchise's first last-place finish since 1997.

In the midst of this bad season, Hamels is having maybe his best season. You can't tell from his 8-6 record (he's allowed one run or zero runs in 11 starts but won just six of those), but his ERA is a career-low 2.50 and he hasn't been as prone to the long ball as in the past. He's still one of the premier lefties in the game, which means we'll once again be hearing his name in trade rumors all offseason.

Trouble is, the Phillies will face the same dilemma they faced when considering whether to trade Hamels in July: It's going to be difficult to get a team to give up multiple top prospects or young players and pick up the remaining $90 million and four years of his contract (or $110 million if a final fifth year vests). The Phillies reportedly wanted a ransom of Joc Pederson, Corey Seager and Julio Urias from Los Angeles, the Dodgers' top three prospects. I'm guessing that phone conversation between Ruben Amaro and Ned Colletti didn't last long.

Unless Amaro reshapes his thinking on Hamels' value, that means Hamels likely returns to the Phillies in 2015. With Cliff Lee's season-ending injury and salary ($25 million in 2015 plus either a $12 million buyout or $27.5 vesting option for 2016), he's probably not going anywhere this offseason, either. Teams will want to see him pitch first.

Which puts the Phillies back to where they've been the past two seasons: Trying to win with an old and aging core and not enough young talent. A lot has been made of the Phillies not trading Jonathan Papelbon or not giving rookie Ken Giles a chance to close, but the truth is that Papelbon wouldn't bring much on the trade market, not with his salary ($13 million this year and next year, with a possible vesting option for 2016) and the fact that teams just don't give up much for relief pitchers, even good ones.

At least Hamels, Lee if healthy, and Papelbon have been productive. Chase Utley, 35, has also had a solid year and has played in 131 of the Phillies' 137 games. Jimmy Rollins has actually had his best season in years, with 3.5 WAR.

The biggest problems with the 2014 Phillies have been:

1. Ryan Howard. He's fourth in the NL in RBIs, which is enough of a trap that Amaro probably thinks he's even having a good year. He's not. Howard's WAR is -0.9, a reflection of his low on-base percentage (.308), low slugging percentage (.383) and terrible defense (-9 defensive runs saved). As rumored at one point this summer, the Phillies are better off just buying out Howard's contract and parting ways. He's not a replacement-level first baseman, let alone a championship-level first baseman. He's done a lot for the club in his career but you can't be sentimental in baseball.

2. Domonic Brown. He's gone from All-Star to All-Stiff. He's done nothing well this year. He hasn't hit for power, hasn't gotten on base and he's lousy in left field. Maybe you don't give up on him but you can't count on him remaining a starter in 2015.

3. Ben Revere, or at least his defense. He may win the batting title! He also has a .325 OBP and Phillies fans will attest to his poor routes in center and poor arm. Put him in left field and find a better glove for center.

4. Kyle Kendrick. OK, his defense doesn't help -- we just pointed out three big problems -- but that's exacerbated with Kendrick because he's not a big strikeout guy. But he has a 4.83 ERA the past two seasons, not good enough for this post-steroid era.

First base, center field, starting pitcher. That's where you start. That's not going to be easy considering the Phillies already have $127 million committed to just nine players next season. Is there room to go after a Max Scherzer or Pablo Sandoval or James Shields? Maybe there is, especially with a back-loaded contract, as the Phillies have $76 million in commitments for 2016 and $34 million in 2017, so there's flexibility down the road.

Trouble is that by then, Utley, Rollins, Lee and Papelbon will be gone or too old. Leaving Cole Hamels. Last man standing.

Good luck, Ruben Amaro. Or the general manager who will be taking on this team in the offseason.

Five things we learned Friday

August, 30, 2014
Aug 30
12:05
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1. Another Friday, another no-hit bid against the Cincinnati Reds

Last week Atlanta Braves starter Mike Minor tossed 7 2/3 innings before the Reds put a hit on the board. Friday, it was Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Edinson Volquez who kept Cincinnati hitless for the first six frames. Volquez, a former 17-game winner with the Reds, was picked up off the scrap heap by Pittsburgh this winter and has been a pleasant surprise. Although his peripheral statistics don't necessarily support his 3.45 ERA, he is unlikely to turn into a pumpkin down the stretch after nearly 160 innings of work this season.

Volquez tied a season high with 114 pitches Friday. He was charged with one earned run on three hits and three walks. He struck out six. He pounded the ground with 10 ground-ball outs. Although he has done a lot of work close to the earth, it is his work in the air that has been the big key in 2014. Last year, opposing batters had a .310 average on fly balls against Volquez. This season, that mark sits at .172. Advanced metrics place the Pirates' outfield in a negative light, but someone is converting those fly balls into outs on a consistent basis.

Despite the lack of knocks, the Reds were able to keep both games close, losing in the 12th inning last Friday and briefly taking a 1-0 lead in the eighth inning Friday before conceding the lead and the game soon after. The wins were important to Atlanta and Pittsburgh as both are still chasing the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals in the National League wild-card race. In fact, the Pirates' three-game winning streak has them sneaking back into contention in the NL Central as well.

For those interested, the Reds host the New York Mets next Friday at the Great American Ballpark.

2. DeGrom continues strong season

The Mets are in the midst of another lost season, but once again a trio of young arms gives the organization and its fans some hope. They lack the cool nickname of "Generation K," but Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom may be the foundation of a rotation that gets New York's other baseball team back to the postseason. DeGrom, the only active member of the trio, was on the bump Friday against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Without the hype of Harvey or Syndergaard, deGrom has snuck up on most people this season. The lanky right-hander tossed seven strong innings against the Phillies, allowing just one unearned run. Of his 18 starts, deGrom has gone at least six innings in 14 of them. He has allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of those contests.

The rookie boasts a full arsenal of pitches, but Friday night's game plan centered around a mid-90s fastball that he commanded well. It accounted for nearly 75 percent of his pitches thrown Friday, as deGrom honed in on the lower half of the zone to his arm side. The heater was the weapon of choice on 16 of the 22 outs he recorded.

It's been said before, but "maybe next year" for the Mets.

3. Orioles continue to pound away

After taking three of four from the Tampa Bay Rays, the American League East-leading Baltimore Orioles were back at it Friday night, blowing out the Minnesota Twins 9-1. Baltimore's pitching staff has been largely mediocre this season, but its offense packs a powerful enough punch to push the O's past the opposition on most nights. The club's .163 ISO -- isolated power measures the ability to hit for extra bases by stripping singles from slugging percentage -- is tops in the AL, trailing only the Colorado Rockies in the majors.

Chris Davis is having a disappointing season after his breakout 2013 campaign, but he hit another home run -- this one a grand slam -- on Friday that gives him seven in August and 24 on the season. While that is a far cry from last year's pace, Davis appears to be getting a bit more into the swing of things even if his average sits below .200.

In Davis' void, Nelson Cruz and Steve Pearce have picked up the offensive slack. Cruz signed a one-year deal with Baltimore after a difficult time finding work on the open market. His 34 home runs lead the majors. Pearce was once a top prospect in the Pirates' system, but has spent most of his career shuttling between the majors and minors. This season, he has broken out in a big way with an OPS approaching .900 and 16 homers in limited action. He left Friday's game with an abdominal strain. Considering Manny Machado's injury, the team can ill afford to lose Pearce, as crazy as that may sound.

4. Verlander better versus White Sox

The Detroit Tigers have one of the game's top pitchers (Max Scherzer) and traded for another one (David Price) on July 31. Meanwhile, the team's former top hurler was on the mound Friday night, looking to close the gap in the highly contested AL Central race.

Justin Verlander has been off his game for most of this season. His ERA is approaching 5.00 and he has allowed more hits than innings pitched for the first time since 2006. Friday's effort was not vintage Verlander; however, it was still encouraging since he is no longer considered the team's top gun.

Facing the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field, Verlander worked seven innings, allowing one run on nine hits and two walks. He struck out seven batters, throwing 77 strikes in 116 pitches. It was the first time since April 17 that he allowed one run or none in a start.

Despite a recent run of inconsistency, the Tigers are within arm's reach of the division lead. With Anibal Sanchez's future in doubt, Verlander once again becomes a key figure in Detroit's rotation. If he can be just part of what he once was, it may go a long way in the club's quest for a fourth straight division title.

5. Young Cubs on the prowl

The Houston Astros have been painted by some as the poster boys of "process." Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs have also been in rebuild mode and, unlike Houston, which may have some sour grapes among its bunch, their organizational tree is starting to bear fruit at the highest level.

Javier Baez was first to capture the nation's attention this summer with his risk-versus-reward approach at the plate. His big swings have left nearly an equal amount of oohs and ughs depending on whether he made contact or not. This week, the club promoted Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler to the big leagues. That decision is already paying dividends.

Though he is just three games into his major league career, the 22-year-old Soler has seven hits in his first 12 plate appearances. On Friday, he recorded his first multi-home run game, belting a pair of homers against the St. Louis Cardinals. Soler's first homer was a solo shot in the seventh inning that tied the game at 2-2. Baez put the Cubs ahead 4-2 with an RBI double the next inning, but the big blast came once again from Soler, who smacked a two-run homer to left field. Two innings, two at-bats and two home runs that covered 858 feet. Not bad for the third night on the job.

As exciting as the win was for the Cubs, it was equally devastating for a Cardinals team that is clinging to an NL wild-card spot by the slimmest of margins.

Tommy Rancel blogs about the Tampa Bay Rays at the SweetSpot network affiliate The Process Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @TRancel.
So, these are the National League leaders in batting average entering Thursday:

1. Justin Morneau, Rockies -- .317
2. Ben Revere, Phillies -- .310
3. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates -- .307
4. Josh Harrison, Pirates -- .304
5. Aramis Ramirez, Brewers -- .304

Five other players -- Matt Adams, Daniel Murphy, Yasiel Puig, Paul Goldschmidt and Denard Span are also at .300 or above, although Goldschmidt will eventually fall off the qualifying leaderboards due to his season-ending injury (as Troy Tulowitzki already has).

Let's be honest here: This isn't exactly Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker dueling it out.

Morneau is a nice story, signing with the Rockies and having a nice season after struggling for years to perform at his usual All-Star level after suffering a concussion in 2010. Of course, hitting .317 or winning a batting title playing for the Rockies is hardly a unique achievement and Morneau hasn't hit .300 in a full season since 2008. Michael Cuddyer, another ex-Twin, won the NL batting title last season for the Rockies at age 34 -- after having never hit .300 before. Six different Rockies have won a total of eight batting titles. To be fair, Morneau isn't just riding Coors Field -- he's hitting .325 on the road and .310 at home.

In Revere's case, it's not so much that it's surprising that he's hitting .300 -- he hit .305 last year and .294 the year before -- it's that he's the perfect example of why batting average is overrated in the first place. He has no power (just one home run and 17 extra-base hits in 480 at-bats) and has just 11 walks. So while's second in the NL in average, he's just 41st in on-base percentage and 63rd in slugging percentage. Players like Revere are kind of what led to the whole creation of sabermetrics in the first place: There's more to creating runs than just getting singles.

Now, players of Revere's ilk have won batting titles before. Ichiro Suzuki won two titles, although compared to Revere he looks like Babe Ruth, and he hit .350 and .372 the years he won. Tony Gwynn had some years where he didn't hit for much power; in 1988, he won a title with a .313 average and just 34 extra-base hits (that's the lowest average to win a title since the mound was lowered in 1969). He also won the next year, hitting .336 with four home runs. Rod Carew won the AL batting title in 1972, hitting .318 with no home runs and just 27 extra-base hits. Matty Alou won the NL batting title in 1966 (.342) while hitting two home runs.

Still, Revere would easily be the "worst" batter to win a batting title. Here are the players with the lowest OPS (on-base plus slugging) to win a batting title:

Ben Revere, 2014: .696
Rod Carew, 1972: .749
Zach Wheat, 1918: .755
Dick Groat, 1960: .766
Tony Gwynn, 1988: .787
Matty Alou, 1966: .793
Pete Runnels, 1960: .795
Willie Wilson, 1982: .796

Those numbers don't adjust for the offensive environment of the season. OPS+ adjusts for that as well as home park. The worst five in this category, via Baseball-Reference.com:

Groat, 1960: 110
Runnels, 1960: 114
Billy Goodman, 1950: 117
Wilson, 1982: 118
Freddy Sanchez, 2006: 119

Revere's OPS+ is 96 -- below league average.

Under this method, Groat qualifies as the worst hitter to win a batting title. He hit .325/.371/.394 that year with two home runs and 32 extra-base hits. The average wasn't a complete fluke as he hit .300 three other times in his career. To show how times have changed, however, Groat also won the NL MVP Award as the Pirates won the pennant. Yes, he played shortstop and was regarded as the team leader (and wasn't a terrible choice with a 6.2 WAR that ranked seventh among NL position players), but the batting title most certainly helped.

Groat winning wasn't as strange as Goodman riding his .354 mark for the Red Sox to second place in the 1950 MVP vote. He was kind of the Josh Harrison of his day, playing all over for Boston, although he played in just 110 games and barely qualified for the title. Phil Rizzuto won the MVP but Goodman (four home runs, 68 RBIs) finished ahead of Yogi Berra, who only hit .322 with 28 home runs and 124 RBIs for the pennant-winning Yankees.

Anyway, if you like to follow the batting races, this year's NL race could certainly end up being one to forget. Although on the bright side it gives Phillies fans something to cheer for (although didn't they want to run Revere out of town last summer?).

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