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Eric Karabell and Mark Simon gathered for Monday's Baseball Today podcast. Here's what went down:

1. Justin Verlander's near no-no and Max Scherzer's 15-strikeout game topped the weekend's pitching performances. Who else had great games?

2. Aroldis Chapman named Reds closer, but does this move really make Cincinnati any better?

3. Lance Berkman is heading to the DL, so it's time to talk about Matt Adams.

4. Power rankings!

5. Ridiculous question of the week!

All that and more, including a look ahead to Monday's game. King Felix versus Yu Darvish!

Justin Verlander very nearly pulled off a no-hitter against the Pirates, which would have been his third career no-hitter. Two outs shy of the feat, the Pirates’ Josh Harrison waved his bat in time to flick a soft liner up the middle, thwarting the top gun’s bid for history.

If Verlander had pulled it off, he would have joined a very short list of people with more than two career no-nos, a select group populated by just five other men in baseball history: Nolan Ryan (seven), Sandy Koufax (four), and Cy Young, Bob Feller and Larry Corcoran with three apiece.

On a visceral level, it’s a group he belongs to, but it’s also one that might really become just a list of two men before Verlander’s done with it. Not because Verlander’s a 100 percent lock to throw another no-no (although these days, would you bet against him?). Rather, as a matter of his ability in the face of a time when -- even if you consider this “Year of the Pitcher 3,” even while strikeouts are at all-time highs -- it still isn’t that easy to dominate, not like this. But before all is said and done, it shouldn’t surprise anybody if the top of this list might be just Nolan Ryan and Justin Verlander before Verlander is done with it.

That isn’t meant to take anything from the other men on this list. However, as a matter of simple fact, they were competing at different times, confronting very different challenges in very different competitive environments. Corcoran was throwing from 10 feet closer to home plate, back under the old pre-60-feet-6-inches rules in the 19th century, and in all-white leagues. Cy Young was pitching during the dead ball era, when he was throwing something dark, lumpy, and vaguely baseball-ish. Feller threw two of his no-hitters before integration -- a cause that he bravely championed before it was an accomplished fact -- was at long last achieved. Koufax had the high mound of the 1960s going for him, and that plus the Dodgers’ move to pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium helped him as he mastered his incredible talents for overpowering people.

Pitching in today’s game, Verlander doesn’t have any of those things going for him, any more than Ryan did during his remarkable career. Take it from somebody stupefied as a youngster that Mike Warren had no-hit the White Sox back in 1983: You can’t predict no-hitters from anyone. But if Verlander was to add one, let alone two no-hitters on his career, wouldn’t that seem like a matter of his talent delivering its due?

On the other hand, Verlander is pitching at a time when there are other advantages and disadvantages. Interleague play gives you a shot at pitching to opponents who might only know you from spring-training scrimmages and "Baseball Tonight" highlights. Only four Pirates in Friday night’s lineup had ever faced Verlander in a game that counted: Andrew McCutchen, Casey McGehee, Neil Walker and Garrett Jones.

Also, it probably didn’t hurt Verlander any that this was an interleague game. The extent to which some teams are less ready than others for interleague play might be best reflected in their lineup choices. Going up against Verlander, who was the Pirates' designated hitter? None other than Harrison, who came into the game with a .256/.275/.436 line on the year. In an increasingly desperate yet fruitless pursuit of runs, the Bucs have sat Opening Day left fielder Alex Presley, on the off-chance that getting journeymen McGehee and Jones into the lineup simultaneously will help matters. You can’t really blame Verlander for mowing the Pirates down; pitting Pittsburgh against one of baseball’s best starters has “historic result” potential any written all over it.

But even saying that takes nothing away from Verlander. The Pirates are a big league team, and it isn’t like anyone in their lineup clearly doesn’t belong in the major leagues. McGehee had homered off Verlander before; McCutchen had ripped a couple of doubles.

Those four Pirates who had faced Verlander before were a combined 5-for-14 against him coming in -- and fat lot of good that did them, because he was on. Even in an age armed with advanced scouting and video-enhanced batting cages for virtual at-bats, when a guy this good is on, let’s face it, you’re off. And knowing all that we do about how hard it is to no-hit anybody even once, that's as beautiful a thing as the diamond can give us, on this or any night.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

The average number of runs per game per team has fluctuated throughout baseball’s history. There have been declines attributed to better gloves and the introduction of hard-throwing set-up men and closers. There have been increases linked to such things as the lowering of the pitcher’s mound, the introduction of the designated hitter and artificial turf.

Since 1901, the average yearly rate of change has been about five percent either way. Here are the fluctuations over the past 15 seasons (2012 totals through May 7):

 

On a team basis, run production can fluctuate from year-to-year based on things as tangible as changes in ballpark dimensions, and as variable as batting average on balls in play. The following table shows the change in run production from 2011 to 2012 for each team, measuring against the average across the majors, with the year-to-year change in performance relative to league average. For example, the Cardinals averaged 4.70 runs per game in 2011, 10 percent better than the league average of 4.28. So far in 2012, they’ve averaged 5.55 runs per game, a gaudy 32 percent better than the league mark of 4.20. So, from year-to-year, they’ve improved 22 percent relative to the league average.

 

As you can see, the early 2012 season has provided two extreme outliers in this season-to-season variability: the Atlanta Braves and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

For the Braves, the improvement can be tied to the turnaround of their entire outfield. Last year’s leaders in outfield production had 14 homers (Jason Heyward), 57 RBIs (Martin Prado), and a .278 average (Michael Bourn, in 53 games upon his arrival from Houston). This year, all three starting outfielders have OPS+ safely over 100 (Prado 105, Bourn 125, Heyward 133). The entire team’s OPS with runners in scoring position has risen from .714 to .752, while their BABIP has increased from .284 to .311. (One might expect some regression in that area as the season moves forward.) The Braves are averaging nearly 1.5 runs per game more than last year, and are up 37 percent year-to-year against the league norm. (Note: The Braves have declined from 5.43 runs per game to 5.19 in the few days since the original research was completed.)

The 2011 version of the Pirates was no juggernaut on offense, averaging a scant 3.77 runs per game (12 percent below league average). However, no one could have foreseen the utter collapse of any semblance of an attack, as Pittsburgh has mustered only 2.79 runs per contest so far. That rate is 34 percent below league average, making for a 22 percent decline year-to-year against the league norms. Compared to 2011, the Buccos are getting much less production from catcher Rod Barajas, second baseman Neil Walker and new shortstop Clint Barmes. They stole bases at a fair clip last year (108 out of 160 for 68 percent). This year they are 14 for 25 (56 percent). They’ve also forgotten about walks, averaging nearly one less per game. One area where they might improve over the remainder of the season is BABIP: this year’s .278 mark pales next to last season’s .301.

So where do the Braves and Pirates rank all-time in terms of changes in year-to-year offense? Here first is the list of those teams that experienced at least a 30 percent improvement versus the league average:



The Braves are sitting amongst some rare company. There hasn’t been an improvement like this since 1978, when the Brewers added just over one run per game to their offense, while the overall league average dropped by roughly 0.4 runs. The 1903 New York Giants benefited from a career year from outfielder Roger Bresnahan (.936 OPS) and the first full season of manager John McGraw, helping lead the squad to a .111 increase in OPS (.570 to .681).

Now here’s the list of those teams that experienced at least a 30 percent decline versus the league average:



The 1903 season saw the American League adopt the "foul strike" rule, which may account for scoring across the league dropping by 0.8 runs per team per game. The 1914-15 A's fell off when Connie Mack broke up a World Series team, selling off several of his stars. The 1943 Red Sox lost stars Johnny Pesky and Ted Williams to World War II.

At "only" 22 percent, the Pirates have to improve their underperforming to crack this list. Assuming the majors’ average runs per game stays at 4.20 for the rest of the year, they’d have to lower their runs per game to 2.43 to achieve a 30 percent drop relative to the league. It seems unlikely they’d score only 395 runs in the entire year (162 * 2.43). But, that’s why they play the games.

Diane Firstman runs the Value Over Replacement Grit blog. Follow her on Twitter.

First base: Braun bashes. I was actually thinking about Ryan Braun this afternoon. With Prince Fielder departed for greener pastures, you heard a lot of stuff in the offseason like "Braun won't get anything to hit" or "he'll get pitched around." After all, with Fielder hitting behind Braun last season, the NL MVP received just two intentional walks. Well, entering Monday's night game in San Diego, Braun was hitting .263/.322/.500. Not bad, but certainly not MVP numbers. What's interesting is that his strike rate was way up (24.4 percent from 14.8 percent) and his walk rate was down (6.7 percent from 9.2 percent).

The decreased walk rate indicates pitchers haven't been shying away from challenging him. On the other hand, the strikeout rate suggests maybe they have, only he's been chasing pitches out of the strike zone. So which is it? Actually, it's both. Before Monday, he'd seen basically the same percentage of strikes as last year -- 46.3 percent in 2012, 45.1 percent in 2011. Braun, however, had been swinging at more pitches out of the zone -- 29.9 percent in 2011, 34.4 percent in 2012. He was also swinging at 12 percent more pitches in the zone. Braun has never been a big walker, but this increased aggressiveness perhaps indicates a hitter trying to make too much happen without the big guy hitting behind him.

Anyway, the Padres challenged Braun on Monday and he didn't miss, becoming the first player to hit three home runs at spacious Petco Park, which opened in 2004. He homered in the fourth inning off Joe Wieland, swatting a first-pitch high fastball over the fence in right-center. In the fifth, he tomahawked a 2-2 Wieland slider into the upper deck of the Western Supply Co. warehouse in left field. In the seventh, he hit a first-pitch breaking ball from Ernesto Frieri just over the fence in left-center, prompting a smile as he rounded the bases. He had a chance for a fourth home run, but settled for one-hop triple off the fence in right-center.

Suddenly, he's hitting .294/.347/.647.

The lesson for Braun: Be patiently aggressive, if that makes sense. Two of his home runs came on meaty first pitches. He said after the game he has been inconsistent with his swing. But consistency comes with patience and discipline as well. Quit chasing pitches out of the zone and maybe he'll start connecting more with those in the zone.

Second base: Andy Pettitte roughed up. Hold off on that belief that Andy Pettitte is a sure thing as an upgrade over Freddy Garcia or Phil Hughes in the Yankees' rotation. He gave up six runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings in a Class A start on Monday. On the positive side, he did strike out eight with no walks. "I feel good and it was another solid day," Pettitte said. "I felt the quality of pitches were as good as I've had in any of my starts up to now, and I was able to hold my velocity throughout. I feel like I'm ready to help the team." While Pettitte says he's ready, the Yankees are likely to give him two more minor league starts.

Third base: Pedro power. Pedro Alvarez still has an ugly .203 batting average and an awful 23/3 SO/BB ratio, but the once-heralded Pirates prospect is at least starting to show something. He hit his fifth home run of the season in the Pirates' 9-3 win over the Braves -- Pittsburgh's first game with more than five runs all month. Over his past eight games, he's hitting .345 with three home runs and four doubles. Hey, it's start. Ten days ago he was batting .067.

Home plate: Tweet of the day. We salute Mr. Braun:

That's why baseball is the greatest game there is. A routine Monday night & there's suddenly a surprise: #Brewers Ryan Braun 3 HR, 6 RBI.

— Steve Berthiaume (@SBerthiaumeESPN) May 1, 2012

Andrew McCutchen is laughing, shaking his head in disbelief. "It’s just another hat," he says during a spring training interview.

I tell him maybe he doesn’t understand how special these hats were. I tell him I realize they are ridiculous looking hats but seriously, what if they had magical powers? Would he wear the 1979 Pirates pillbox hat if it meant the current Pirates would bring a World Series championship to Steel City?

McCutchen still wasn’t buying it.

"Obviously that’s not going to make it happen," McCutchen said. "We’ve worn them in the past."

Although baseball players are notoriously superstitious, McCutchen is right; it takes a lot more than a special cap to win a World Series.

The Pirates begin a seven-game road trip tonight against the Braves. The last time the Pirates were in Atlanta they entered that late July series in 2011 tied for first place in the NL Central. After four games, 47 innings and one bad call by umpire Jerry Meals, they left Atlanta 1.5 games back, spiraled through losing the next 10 consecutive games and ended the season 72-90.

McCutchen said this season they are not going to focus on what happened to their team after Atlanta last year. Sure, they’ll remember it. But only as motivation to be more focused in 2012.

"I feel like if we can focus on day by day the sky is going to be the limit for us," McCutchen said back in late March.

One of the key offseason moves to forget the second half of 2011 was acquiring A.J. Burnett, who makes his second start tonight, facing off against the Braves' Tommy Hanson.

Recalling the conversations the Pirates had when they first began thinking about Burnett, manager Clint Hurdle said they started looking at his career, his history, the years Burnett pitched well. In 2008 for the Toronto Blue Jays, Burnett went 18-10, had a 4.07 ERA and a career-high 231 strikeouts. His catcher in Toronto? Rod Barajas.

"We called Rod once we knew we were getting A.J.," Hurdle said. "A.J. spoke volumes of the relationship that he had with Rod."

Barajas said over the last few years he and Burnett would talk every so often -- Burnett would call and ask for his input as to how he was pitching. Barajas believes the pitcher and catcher relationship to be the most important in all of baseball.

After being activated from the disabled list last Saturday (following surgery to repair a fractured orbital bone when hit in the face bunting in spring training), Burnett threw seven strong innings, giving up three hits to the St. Louis Cardinals and earning his first win of 2012. While it is only one game, it is interesting to note 70 percent of Burnett’s pitches were in the strike zone. If Burnett goes back to his 2008 form Barajas’ impact on Burnett will speak volumes.

"We kind of go back to what he did well that year," Barajas said of looking at Burnett’s years in Toronto. "It’s awesome, already having that relationship built up. It should put him at ease."

Burnett is just one piece of the puzzle for the Pirates. Sure, it is only April, but teams have to start somewhere and the Pirates' pitching staff is off to a great start.

They have allowed only 51 runs (second-fewest in the majors, behind the Washington Nationals' 48 runs) and they have a 2.58 ERA -- lower than the Rangers, Cardinals or Phillies.

Unfortunately, the Pirates' offense is off to a terrible start, thus the 8-10 record. They are last in the majors with only 41 runs scored. The Pirates have to find a way to get their offense going.

Shortstop Clint Barmes said this comes down to realizing how important every game is. Baseball is crazy that way, the entire season -- complete joy or agony -- can come down to one game.

"It’s taking the mentality of showing up every day, every game is big, every game is important," Barmes said. "As soon as you relax or sit back on your heels in this game it will find you in all aspects. ... The good teams find a way to get out of [struggles] a little quicker than the other teams."

How can the Pirates accomplish this?

The last time the Pirates won the World Series was 1979. According to Paul Lukas who writes the Uni Watch column for ESPN’s Fandom blog, the Pirates wore the pillbox cap from 1976 through 1986. So, McCutchen was right --- the pillbox caps were not the superstitious key to winning the World Series in 1979.

However, something else interesting happened in 1979. Willie Stargell, now Hall of Famer and then team leader, gave teammates gold stars for outstanding performances throughout the year. The team became one big family. Their team theme song in 1979: "We are Fam-i-ly!"

The Pirates have laid groundwork this year where the team can turn into a family -- from signing McCutchen, a team-oriented guy, to reuniting Burnett and Barajas. Maybe they'll have the capacity to address struggles better than they did last year.

"When you get a group of guys in a clubhouse that can pick each other up, you’re enjoying coming in the clubhouse," Barmes said of his teammates this year. "Not every team I’ve played on has been like that. But when you have that, it makes a big difference throughout a full season."

Of course, it is hard to identify if winning games builds good chemistry or if good chemistry leads to wins, but we know the stories from the teams who have experienced it. In a way, part of the magic of the 1979 Pirates really was in "Stargell’s stars" placed on those crazy pillbox caps.

If the Pirates give general manager Neal Huntington some money to improve the team before the trade deadline, what should he spend it on first?

That’s easy to answer: Amazon.com sells iron-on gold stars for cheap.

Anna McDonald contributes to the SweetSpot blog on ESPN.com's Playbook section. Follow her on Twitter.

I tweeted a note Thursday morning from our Stats & Information department: Only two walk-off home runs had been hit so far (by Alex Aliva and Todd Helton), the fewest this late in a season since 1982.

Sure enough, we got another one later in the day when Tampa Bay's Brandon Allen golfed a low fastball from Jordan Walden over the wall in right-center for a dramatic two-run blast to give the Rays a 4-3 victory over the Angels, completing a series sweep over the reeling Albert Pujols & Co.

In typical Joe Maddon fashion, he pulled the right strings in sending Allen up to hit for Jose Molina. Claimed off waivers last week from the A's, Allen had just one previous plate appearance with Tampa, drawing a key bases-loaded walk the night before. So he hadn't really swung the bat since April 7. He hadn't delivered a hit all season, since he went 0-for-7 with five strikeouts with Oakland. Walden tried to blow him away with five straight fastballs, but Allen crushed a 2-2, 97-mph four-seamer deep into the stands, getting up and personal with his teammates during the ensuing home-plate celebration.

Allen is a fringe major leaguer, a guy with big-time power but who has struggled to make contact in his brief trials with Arizona and Oakland. In many ways, it was just another baseball game, a mid-April affair played on an afternoon when most of the sports world was focused on the NFL draft. But, you know, this game could end up being one of the best moments of Allen's big league career, which makes it pretty neat in my book.

"Baseball is luck. It's a lot of luck. You just do what you can to prepare for it," Allen said after the game. "I just got in there and stayed within myself."

Maddon had told Allen to be ready when the Rays signed him. "To do this, to basically win two games for us two nights in a row, is pretty special," Maddon said.

The Rays are 12-7, which isn't necessarily surprising since many picked them to make the playoffs. But what is surprising is they've done this amid a tough April schedule and they've done it with a lot of offense, supposedly the team's weakness.

Currently fourth in the AL in runs scored, Tampa's hitting attack looks legitimate. Evan Longoria is hitting .309 with a .427 on-base percentage. Matt Joyce is proving last season's All-Star appearance wasn't a fluke with a .322/.394/.644 start. Carlos Pena is hitting .284 and drawing walks. Luke Scott is providing power from the DH slot. Add in Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings and B.J. Upton and you get the feeling the Rays may score some runs.

And the pitching ... Well, you get the feeling the pitching hasn't even gotten their groove on yet.

Here are three more big surprises after three weeks.

1. Lance Lynn and Kyle Lohse.
The Cardinals have withstood Chris Carpenter's injury and Adam Wainwright's slow start since these two guys have dominated. Lynn replaced Carpenter and, yes, he's faced the Cubs twice and the Pirates in three of his four starts. But he has allowed one run in each start and has an impressive 24/6 SO/BB ratio. Remember, Lynn was a first-round supplemental pick and a decent prospect coming up through the minors before excelling in the bullpen last season as a rookie. Actually, he's still a rookie. He has a good arm, he is a 6-foot-5 beast on the mound and there is a good chance he's a solid No. 3 starter. As for Lohse, I'll be honest: I didn't expect him to repeat last season's 3.39 ERA. He has kept his changeup down in the zone so far and hasn't allowed a home run, leading to a 0.99 ERA. Both have a chance of being middle-of-the-rotation starters ... or better, certainly more than the back-of-the-rotation guys I projected them as.

2. Jose Altuve
This little guy can rake. He's off to a .377 start, which is surprising enough, but the biggest surprise is the mature approach the 5-foot-5 21-year-old has shown at the plate. After hitting .389 between Class A and Double-A last season, the Astros called him in July. While he hit a respectable .276, he drew just five walks in 234 plate appearances, leading to concerns he would be exposed this season. But he has already drawn seven walks, and after swinging at 41 percent of pitches outside the strike zone as a rookie, that has dropped to 25 percent this season. He's a key reason the Astros are third in the NL in runs scored and playing respectable baseball -- they're 7-12 but have outscored their opponents.

3. Pirates pitching
OK, the Pirates are hitting .221 with a .269 OBP. But they're 8-10 behind a pitching staff that has allowed less than three runs per game. The Pirates have neither scored nor allowed more than five runs in a game. Can they keep it up? Even though the starters have a 2.59 ERA, I'm a little skeptical. The Pirates' 6.54 K's per nine ranks 25th in the majors. Their .256 BABIP allowed is third-best. Those two numbers are a bit at odds with each other. It should be noted we saw a similar result last year as the Pirates had a good run in the first half before collapsing. Still, give credit to the pitchers (and defense) for an amazing run of games.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

First: You know first, it’s the base you’re supposed to go to initially, to get on base. Or to throw to when the opposition obligingly gives you an out on a sac bunt. It’s also sometimes a bit of a tricky target, as the Cubs’ Geovany Soto found out in the sixth inning against the Reds when, with Ryan Hanigan on first with nobody out and Cincinnati holding a 2-0 lead, pitcher Johnny Cueto stepped in. Automatic sac bunt, right? Sure, except Soto’s throw was wild, so now it’s two on, nobody out. So what does Dusty Baker order up from leadoff man Zack Cozart? A sac bunt … which Soto threw away to load the bases. For Soto’s sake, here’s hoping he doesn’t get an even worse case of the yips.

Second: Toronto’s Brett Lawrie stole home against the Royals, his first-ever steal of home, on his second recorded attempt. But he’s also tried to steal second just two times this season, and he’s be no more (or less) successful, going for 1-for-2 there. Which is another way of saying it’s early.

Third: Already 0-3 after three starts, Erik Bedard now has to live with four losses in four starts. Now sure, you can’t feel too sorry for the guy; that was sure to be his lot in life after surprising some this winter with a decision to sign with the Pittsburgh Pirates. With two quality starts and a pair of five-inning, two-run outings, he’s actually pitched well enough to go about 1-1 according to Baseball Prospectus’s Support-Neutral Won-Loss stats, but when you’re working with whatever run support the Bucs dredge up with the 16th-ranked offense in the league, it’s hard to expect Bedard to catch many, any or even one break.

Keep in mind, Bedard has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start, but because he’s gotten just three runs total in run support from a Pirates offense averaging two scores per contest, he’s the man getting the short straw from an already close-cropped selection.

After his 24-loss season with the original-edition Mets of 1962, it was Roger Craig who said, “I had to be pretty good for them to keep sending me out there enough to lose that many games.” I doubt Bedard will take much solace in that. Happily -- for him -- his won-loss record isn’t going to amount to much in July, when the Pirates start shopping him in earnest to contenders looking to shore up their rotations.

Home: Tweet of the Day goes to Baseball America for passing along some Bryce Harper video:

Prospects Blog: Watch Bryce Harper Connect For His First Triple-A Home Run: Nationals uber-prospect Bryce Harper... bit.ly/Jof4Rp

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) April 23, 2012

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

You have a baseball team. Let's call it the Pittsburgh Pirates. The season is about two weeks old, so you decide to take stock. The first thing you notice is that the pitching has been much, much better than anyone would have thought. There’s the team ERA of 2.80, the opponents’ on-base percentage of .299, and the fact that the staff has yet to allow more than five runs in a game. You’ve even done it all with a low-cost rotation that won’t cost you hundreds of millions of dollars over the next 10 years.

The second thing you find is that the offense has been so bad you have a team OPS (.540) that’s worse than David Wright’s OBP (.550). Despite the staff holding opponents to a maximum of five runs, your offense has also failed to score more than five in any game. You’re dead last in the majors in average (.205), on-base (.252), slugging (.287), OPS, total bases, and more. To make matters worse, all that is with Andrew McCutchen, your star outfielder, pulling more than his weight, hitting .400 with a .460 OBP. You don’t need to have a high-powered offense to compete in the NL Central, but it’s got to be better than this.

Welcome to the Pirates. If you want to get some sense of what it might be like to be a Pirates fan, consider that the team hasn’t had a winning season since the George H.W. Bush administration. Last season, things seemed to be going better (for a little while, anyway). The Pirates managed to find themselves in first place for a couple of days in July before finishing 19-42, a run that started with a 19-inning loss against Atlanta on a blown call at home plate. They finished in fourth place, 24 games behind the Brewers, a team they briefly led.

The season is not even a month old, so comparing the Pirates’ offense to the historically awful 2010 Mariners isn’t warranted (yet), but whether you’re amazed that the Bucs are doing as well as 5-7 or distressed that they are only 5-7 will probably have to do with how much you value an offense, and how much you value a pitching staff. The common maxim is that good pitching always beats good hitting, but the truth is a little more complicated.

Just look at the Phillies; the other Pennsylvania team has a rotation that includes Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hamels, but with an offense that ranks 29th out of 30 in runs scored. The team has the same 5-7 record as the Pirates. No one has to be the 1927 Yankees or 1999 Indians at the plate, but what the Pirates and Phillies have produced offensively won't cut it. The Pirates’ extension of McCutchen was rightly praised as a team-friendly deal that would keep their best homegrown player in years in western Pennsylvania for some time, but he can’t be the team’s only producer at the plate. Even the Dodgers haven’t been relying totally on Matt Kemp (well, OK, that’s pushing it, but Kemp’s numbers thus far are ... well, they’re good. Really, really good).

We’re not in the business of predicting baseball, but most fans and prognosticators would likely agree that the Pirates aren’t expected to win the NL Central or finish ahead of the defending World Series champion Cardinals or the NL Central-winning Brewers. Still, the possibility, at least in the abstract, should be there for the Pirates to have a better season in 2012 than they’ve had in nearly 20 years ... but they’ll have to start hitting if it’s got any shot of becoming reality.

You can follow You Can’t Predict Baseball on Twitter at @cantpredictball.

First base: If at first you do succeed, why not try again? That was the choice of Clint Hurdle the bunt-happy skipper of the Pirates, on Sunday. Up by just a run in the eighth inning against the Giants with two men on and nobody out and with ground-pounding lefty Jeremy Affeldt just brought into the ballgame, Hurdle had Neil Walker drop a bunt to take the DP out of order and set up a manufactured run with the bottom of his batting order. That risk run, the Pirates got more booty than they bargained for: Pablo Sandoval’s wild throw to first plated the lead runner Andrew McCutchen and put trailing runner Casey McGehee on third.

So having lucked into a run already, what did Hurdle do with runners at the corners and utility infielder Josh Harrison up, followed by backup catcher Michael McKenry and the pitchers’ spot, and nobody out? He had Harrison bunt too, and he plated McGehee. In any first-and-second, nobody-out situation, you’re expected to wind up with about 1.4 runs, but that’s overwhelmingly with batters swinging away. Hurdle’s lineup didn’t just beat the odds of scoring that inning, they beat them without the ball leaving the infield. Not too shabby.

Second base: Let’s do two? The Royals got blown out by the Tribe. Down by eight after eight, they stooped to baseball’s version of a concession speech: They had outfielder Mitch Maier toss a mop-up inning. Maier pitched a scoreless ninth to double his career total of innings pitched, and he has yet to be scored upon.

Third base: Cardinals’ Carpenter has 5 RBIs… does not compute, does not compute… but it doesn’t have to! That’s because it’s not Chris Carpenter from the mound, it’s the other Carpenter on the Mound City team who happens to be swinging heavy lumber -- Matt Carpenter. Now sure, pummeling the Cubs may not be like producing world peace, but a year ago Allen Craig and David Freese weren’t well-known outside St. Louis. With two singles, a triple and a homer, Carpenter added to his case for why he’s yet another no-name asset the Cards might have to make space for.

Home plate: Tweet of the Day. If you want to know more about what Mike Trout can do that nobody else does, thank Mark for sharing…

The Mike Trout legend grows espn.go.com/blog/los-angel…

— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) April 16, 2012

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

With initial active rosters picked, we’ve seen a few of the same long-term trends perpetuate themselves in terms of roster set-up. Despite the less crowded April schedule that might seem to make carrying seven relievers, let alone eight, unnecessary, 23 of 30 teams went with the now-standard 13-12 split between position players and pitchers.

If you’re one of those people who loved the more aggressive brand of in-game management from the ’70s and ’80s, with managers reaching into deeper, well-stocked benches to pinch-hit for defensive specialists or pinch-run for basepath slugs, you might be ready to rail against the seven-man bullpen. But you can do that for only so long before you have to come to the grudging concession that it’s here to stay like other unpleasantries like interleague games, 10 playoff teams per season or Simon Cowell.

The extent to which conformity to the 13-12 is a fact of life is reflected in who most of the odd ducks were. The old school 14-11 spread -- "old" if you can hardly remember the ’90s -- is being used by just five teams: the Tigers, Angels, Athletics, Pirates and Rockies. If you think this means any one of their managers want to create more opportunities in their lineups or any of their general managers have elected to let them, guess again. All five clubs are just exploiting the lighter schedule and not carrying their preferred fifth starter of the moment. Give them a week or so, and they’ll more than likely be down at 13-12.

That leaves two teams who weren’t at 13-12 or 14-11: The Astros and Red Sox, who have both gone with eight-man bullpens. In April. That’s while the Sox get to play 12 games in the first 16 days of the season, while the Astros play just six in their first nine days. Even allowing for the questions both teams have about their rotations, that’s a lot of guys standing around in the bullpen instead of the dugout, and the body account alone might seem to be a logistical challenge for Bobby Valentine in Boston and Brad Mills in Houston. Pitchers need work to stay sharp, the same as any other kind of ballplayer, and giving guys reliable time on the mound might not wind up being the highest priority for the two skippers.

The Astros have the excuse of carrying a Rule 5 pick, hard-throwing Rhiner Cruz from the Mets’ organization (as well as shortstop Marwin Gonzalez from the Cubs). That’s a straightforward reflection of new GM Jeff Luhnow’s priority: adding talent to an organization short on it, by whatever means necessary.

But the Red Sox situation is obviously a reflection of the injury stack they’ve endured. Closer Andrew Bailey out for months, reliever Bobby Jenks still hurt, and lefties Andrew Miller and Rich Hill are also on the shelf. To some extent, the early weeks might represent a form of live-fire extended spring training, as Valentine gets to sift through what he has left to pick his seven relief keepers once left fielder Carl Crawford is ready to come off the DL.

From among the opening rosters, here are a few situations that should be interesting to follow to see how they work out in terms of playing time.

• A’s first base: Daric Barton vs. Kila Ka’aihue vs. Brandon Allen vs. Chris Carter is going to start playing out to some sort of conclusion. Carter’s in Sacramento, DHing and raking, but he’s not an immediate concern. Barton could come back from the DL as soon as Monday. Putting Allen in against Felix Hernandez for his two starts while the Kila Monster drew Jason Vargas in his two seems like no way to make an informed decision about which one of them should alternate with Barton while he proves he can play with his bum shoulder.
• Twins infield: Seeing former first-round flop Sean Burroughs resuscitate his career is worth a warm fuzzy, especially if you think Ron Gardenhire should spot the veteran’s lefty bat at the hot corner for Danny Valencia now and again. Now that we’re 1200 at-bats into Valencia’s career, his .655 career OPS vs. right-handers looks like the sort of handicap to a lineup that should consign him to part-time play. But rather than invest too much hope in what Burroughs might do, keep an eye on what Luke Hughes and Trevor Plouffe get to do with undefined utility roles.
• The Pirates: Quite simply, they’ve got a bunch of players who could be valuable, here and into the future or now and then on a contender in August. Nobody gets hardware for notching holds, but Evan Meek and Juan Cruz make for a potentially outstanding pair of set-up men for Joel Hanrahan. Utilityman Yamaico Navarro’s a 24-year-old switch-hitter with career minor league .778 OPS; with the athleticism that kept him in the middle infield most of the time, he might be just an injury (or a Pedro Alvarez slump) away from catching a break.
• Cub platoons: New managers are always interesting to follow, to see what they do with what they’ve got. Dale Sveum’s decision to platoon David DeJesus and Reed Johnson in the leadoff slot from right field is interesting, but his decision to give journeyman Joe Mather a shot at platooning with Ian Stewart at third might prove inspired. Add in the potential for a Bryan LaHair-Jeff Baker platoon at first base (at least until Anthony Rizzo is ready), and you’ve got busy box scores if nothing else.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.

1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?

2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.

3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.

4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.

5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.

6. Yu Darvish.

7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.

8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.

9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?

10. Jose Canseco's tweets.

11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.

12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.

13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.

14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.

15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:

A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.

Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.

18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)

19. Defensive runs saved!

Your leaders by position in 2011:

C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward

20. The Sandman.

21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.

(Read full post)

Eric Karabell is back to help preview the NL Central. We disagree on which team will win the division. And while I said in the video that I think the Cardinals will win the wild card, I take that back. I've run some numbers since we taped this and now I'm not so sure. We're allowed to change our minds before Opening Day, right?

The Blue Jays have scorched their opponents in spring training, winning 23 of 29 games and outscoring their opponents by 77 runs. Jayson Stark has a story up suggesting you shouldn't ignore the Jays, pointing out that in the past 20 years only two other teams have won 75 percent of their games in spring training -- the 1997 Marlins (who won the World Series) and the 2009 Angels (who won 97 games and reached the ALCS).

Can we read anything into a hot spring training at a team level? After all, while we're constantly told that "spring training doesn't mean anything," there's also a lot of cyberspace real estate being spent on spring training updates, reports, analysis and Twitter commentary that suggests it has to mean something.

Let's check back on 10 years of spring training standings to see if we can arrive at any broad conclusions. We'll begin with the team that had the best spring training record each season:


Definitely some correlation here, although last year's Royals are a good reminder that a hot spring doesn't always lead to a successful regular season. If you remember, the Royals pounded the ball all spring -- Melky Cabrera hit .468, Kila Ka'aihue may have been the best hitter in spring training with a .397 average and seven home runs, Alicides Escobar hit five home runs, Mike Aviles hit .357.

What about the teams that ended up with the majors' best regular-season record? Here's how they did:


There's clearly a strong correlation here -- 13 of the 14 teams listed had a winning record in spring training. For what it's worth, here are possible playoff contenders who have had a bad spring: Philadelphia (12-16), Tampa Bay (9-16), Texas (12-17), Atlanta (10-17) and Cleveland (7-21).

I'm not sure we can place too much emphasis on those records, however. Here are poor spring training records for some teams that made the postseason in recent years:

2011 Diamondbacks: 12-25
2011 Rangers: 13-16
2010 Rangers: 10-19
2009 Dodgers: 15-22
2009 Phillies: 13-19
2008 Phillies: 12-18
2008 Red Sox: 8-13
2007 Phillies: 11-18

So as bad as Cleveland or Tampa Bay has looked, we can't write them off yet. (Although I'd like to reconsider my idea of picking Cleveland as an upset special to win the AL Central.)

On a related tangent, how did the majors' worst team fare during spring training?


Well, maybe no surprises here. Only one of worst teams managed to even finish .500. The Astros, everyone's pick as the worst team in 2012, are 14-16. The Pirates are 9-18. But the Twins, Mariners, Padres and A's all have winning spring records, which doesn't mean those teams will finish above .500 but at least suggests they won't be the worst team in baseball.

Finally, let's look at a surprise team from each season:


If the Blue Jays do contend for a playoff spot, they won't exactly fit the definition of a surprise team since they won 81 games in 2011 and 85 in 2010. They'd have to win in the upper 90s to have a win increase that matches the teams on this list. Though there is some correlation here to playing well in spring training, last year's Diamondbacks gave no indication they'd turn into a 90-win club.

So there you go, Pirates fans ... maybe there is still hope.

Wait ... we haven't done the Pittsburgh Pirates?

On July 25 last season, the Pirates beat the Braves to improve to 53-47. They were tied for first place in the NL Central. They had outscored their opponents by six runs, so the record wasn't a complete fluke, although many pointed to an overachieving starting rotation as cause for concern. That night, the Pirates lost that 19-inning heartbreaker to the Braves. You can't point to one game, of course, but the Pirates went 19-43 the rest of the way to finish 72-90. While a disappointing finish, it was the club's best record since 2003 and a 15-game improvement over 2010.

Much of the same cast is back. Jose Tabata and Alex Presley will assume full-time roles in the outfield alongside Andrew McCutchen with Garrett Jones moving to first base. Clint Barmes, a solid defender, was brought in to play shortstop. Once again, former No. 1 pick Pedro Alvarez will be given a chance at third base. The Pirates will need his power bat to finally meet expectations if they are to improve on the 610 runs they scored in 2011 (14th in the NL). Casey McGehee provides depth if Alvarez struggles again.

The rotation finished 11th in the NL with a 4.21 ERA. The Pirates traded for A.J. Burnett and signed Erik Bedard, although Burnett will miss a few weeks after suffering a fractured orbital bone. If healthy, those will help improve a staff that finished last in the league among strikeouts from starters. Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, Charlie Morton and Kevin Correia round out the rotation options. The bullpen posted a 3.76 ERA, 12th in the NL.

The Pirates haven't finished above .500 since 1992. The oddsmakers aren't expecting a breakthrough. The over/under is 73 wins.

BRADENTON, Fla. -- Pirates right-hander A.J. Burnett, after having surgery on his fractured right orbital bone on March 2, threw for the first time on Saturday.

"I thought it was a good day for A.J. [Burnett],” manager Clint Hurdle said of Burnett’s 40-pitch batting practice session. “He was able to hold his back side and work downhill on the mound, [he] threw all his pitches. So, it was the next step.”

Burnett said he was ready to throw and was really looking forward to playing. There is no doubt Burnett is comfortable in his new home with the Pirates; most of his teammates clapped when he walked off the field after throwing.

“They were happy to see me out there as much as I was happy to be out there,” Burnett said of the support he received.

“I opened some eyes today,” said Burnett. “Hopefully they’ll see if I was a little more ready than they thought, but we’re going to be smart about it either way. It was a good step in the right direction.”

Anna McDonald contributes to Page 2 and SweetSpot.