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First base: Here come the Marlins. The Marlins won their sixth straight game to improve to .500. All six wins came on the road, in San Francisco and San Diego, with four of the wins coming by one run and two in extra innings. The key battle in Sunday's 6-3 win over the Padres came in eighth inning with the game tied, the bases loaded, two outs and Giancarlo Stanton facing reliever Andrew Cashner. Stanton saw eight high-octane fastballs from Cashner -- seven at 101 mph, one at 102 mph. Stanton missed the first pitch, later fouled off two pitches and then drew a walk on a 3-2 pitch to give the Marlins the lead. With Cashner perhaps rattled by the bases-loaded walks, the Marlins proceeded to add three more runs on a John Buck passed ball, a Gaby Sanchez single and another passed ball.

"I saw 102 (mph) but you can throw 120 and without command you are going to get hurt," Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen said. "It's all about command and making good pitches. It was a hell of an at-bat." Stanton is also getting locked in. After going homerless for 19 games, he's hit five in his past eight games. Ricky Nolasco also pitched well again, improving to 4-0 with a 2.72 ERA. He's allowed 12 runs in his start, relying on control (nine walks) and keeping the ball in the park (one home run). The Marlins finish their road trip with three games in Houston. Could this be a 9-0 trip?

Second base: Let's settle this on the playground. You have to love Jamie Moyer and Chipper Jones getting into a little squabble over stealing signs. Kids will be kids, I guess. Moyer accused Jones of relaying signs while on second base. But what's odd is Chipper's response: "Any time a grown man gets his integrity questioned, they're going to take it seriously and I'm no different. If he wants to discuss it, we'll discuss it, but he's wrong, plain and simple," he said. But haven't we been led to believe that stealing signs is, you know, part of the game? A sort of legal way to cheat, as opposed to, oh, let's say performance enhancing drugs. Yet Chipper acts like his his very manhood was thrown in the gutter. Could it be that stealing signs is considered an immoral way to victory?

Third base: Mixed messages. Two pitchers in need of positive returns also delivered on Sunday, as Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez threw seven shutout innings against the Rangers while Mat Latos struck out 11 in six scoreless frames. However, let's not get too excited just yet. While Jimenez allowed just two hits, he also walked five against six strikeouts, a sign that his control issues remain an issue (25 walks, just 20 strikeouts on the season). Latos' game came against the Pirates; still, that's two scoreless outings in his past three starts. While I'd still be concerned about Jimenez, maybe Latos is finally showing the talent that made him so effective with the Padres.

Home plate. Tweet of the day. Bryce Harper stole home. On a pickoff throw to first base by Cole Hamels. After reaching when Hamels hit him with a pitch. Which Hamels admitted after the game he did on purpose. As Joe Sheehan tweeted ...

Bryce Harper is going to end up as one of those barometers, where you divide humanity into the people who like him and the ones who don't.

— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) May 7, 2012

Baseball is awesome. Did we need to say anything else? Do we need to hire Terry Cashman to write a ballad about this day? Do we need to pen epic poems about Chipper Jones and Jered Weaver and Bryce Harper and the intentional walk?

Man, I need to catch my breath.

How do you sum up the wildest game of the season so far? I guess pretty simply: The Phillies, a team that scores runs with about the same frequency of a Serie A soccer team, totaled 13 runs ... in a game Roy Halladay started ... and lost.

The Phillies led 6-0, the Braves scored six off Halladay in the fifth (including a Brian McCann grand slam) and then took an 8-6 lead (the first time he's allowed eight runs in a game since Aug. 24, 2009). The Phillies surged back ahead 12-8, the Braves took a 13-12 lead with five runs in the bottom of the eighth (as Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon apparently isn't allowed to pitch more than one inning or three days in a row), the Phillies tied in the ninth on Shane Victorino's two-out infield single, and then ...

Well, then, Larry Wayne Jones stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 11th inning. He hammered a 2-2 slider from Brian Sanches down the right-field line, but it hooked a few feet line. I tweeted, "Dang, a Chipper walk-off would have been pretty cool on this wild day."

Two pitches later, he crushed a 3-2, 88-mph meatball over the center-field fence, watching the ball fly away into the Atlanta evening and flipping his bat in a dismissive swagger. "I may be 40 years old with creaky knees, but don't try and slip that mediocre slop by me," he seemed to say.

Braves 15, Phillies 13.

It was the 458th regular-season home run in his career. Few have felt sweeter, especially since the Braves had lost eight straight games to the Phillies.

"I wish everyone could experience that feeling right there," Jones said on postgame on-field TV interview, trying to catch his breath after enduring the mosh pit at home plate. "That game, without a doubt, takes the cake as far as my career goes. You figure with Halladay and [Tommy] Hanson, it's going to be a 2-1 game."

When Jones says he's never seen a game like it, you know what it was something amazing.

And here are a few more adventures from not just another Wednesday in early May:

• Oh, yeah, as I was finishing this piece, Jered Weaver was flirting with a no-hitter through the sixth … seventh … into the eighth … and he did it. You know, Weaver is pretty good at baseball. The highlight: MLB Network cameras showed Weaver leaving the dugout in the eighth inning to use the bathroom. How do you risk a no-hitter by leaving the bench? As he said after the game, "I had to pee so bad."
• In an afternoon tilt at Coors Field, we saw the worst call of the season (Jerry Hairston Jr. was called out on this play) and Carlos Gonzalez homered twice off Clayton Kershaw (only the second time Kershaw has allowed two home runs to one player in a game, Adam Dunn having done so in 2010). But that stuff was merely a prelude to a wacky ninth inning. With two outs and a runner on first, Jim Tracy elected to intentionally walk Matt Kemp to pitch to Dee Gordon. You can debate the merits of the decision -- Kemp's home run rate was three times that of Gordon's extra-base hit rate, and extreme fly ball pitcher Rafael Betancourt was on the mound -- but Gordon hit a soft liner into right-center. Third-base coach Tim Wallach sent Kemp, who should have been thrown out by 10 feet, but Troy Tulowitzki biffed the relay with a wormburner throw home. Game tied and Tracy looked like the goat until the ancient Jason Giambi hit a three-run homer off Scott Elbert in the bottom of the ninth. How awesome is that the Giambino is still swatting game-winning home runs at age 41?
• The Nationals ended a five-game losing streak in dramatic, walk-off fashion as well. Wunderkind Harper -- who had just missed his first major league homer earlier in the game with a double off the top of the wall in right-center -- led off the bottom of the ninth with another double to center, his third hit of the game. With Nationals fans dreaming delirious dreams of Harper's future, J.J. Putz then struck out Wilson Ramos and Rick Ankiel. But Ian Desmond blasted a 1-1, 93-mph fastball over the fence in left-center. Only one of the best wins in Nationals' history.
• The Royals looked like they were going to beat Justin Verlander, leading 2-0 in the eighth, only to have Brennan Boesch tie the game with a two-run homer. So they settled for a victory off Joaquin Benoit in the ninth, the go-ahead run scoring on Chris Getz's two-out infield single.
• Jake Arrieta threw eight shutout innings against the Yankees in one of the best outings of the year for a pitcher: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB 9 SO. The Orioles took two of three in the series, they're 16-9, and Baltimore fans are starting to believe.
• Jeff Suppan made his first major league start since 2010 and tossed five shutout innings as the Padres blanked the Brewers 5-0.
• Johnny Damon played his first game for the Indians, and while he went 0-for-3 with a walk, having Damon back in the bigs is certainly worthy of a round of applause.
• Carlos Beltran had seven RBIs through three innings and for a time we could conjure up scenarios where he would drive in 10 ... 11 ... maybe even a record-tying 12 runs.
• Lost in the excitement of Chipper's dramatic walk-off homer, Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz also had seven RBIs.

One day in baseball. I say we do it again.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

If you've seen the video of the controversial triple play from the Padres-Dodgers game on Sunday, you'll see umpire Dale Scott initially raise his hands indicating a foul ball on Jesus Guzman's bunt attempt. As the ball then rolled fair, Scott reversed his call and Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis proceeded to start a triple play, snuffing a potential rally in the ninth inning of a tie game.

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs breaks down the play and calls for the game to be replayed from the point of Guzman's at-bat, his argument being that Padres' couldn't have been expected to run once Scott raised his arms, and also pointing out that one game in the expanded playoff system could be the deciding game on one team making the playoffs and another missing them.

At issue: Judgment calls cannot be protested (and thus overturned). Was this just a bad judgment by Scott -- reversing his call in the middle of a play -- or do the Padres have a right to protest based on a rules interpretation (that the play should have been ruled dead once Scott raised his arms)? To confuse matters, it was a fair ball. As reader Dave Alden wrote on FanGraphs, "Letting it stand is unfair to the Padres. Pretending it never happened would be unfair to the Dodgers. There is no perfect solution."

There is about zero chance that if the Padres do end up protesting that the call would be reversed and the game replayed from that point on (as what happened with the famous George Brett pine-tar home run game). But Dave raises an interesting point, and if the Dodgers sneak into the playoffs by a game, maybe they can give a playoff share to Mr. Scott.

• Jon Weisman argues that there is no reason to replay the game.
• Joey Matschulat's headline about the Rangers says it all: The best team in the American League.
• The Cardinals honor the Rally Squirrel on their World Series championship rings. Best ring ever?
• Fire Brand of the AL ask a simple poll question: Is Bobby V already screwing things up?
• The Nationals have a 1.99 ERA, and if not for the Dodgers, could be the biggest story in baseball right now.
• Michael Baumann has a suggestion for Jonathan Papelbon.
• It was not a fun weekend for the Royals.
• The Angels aren't supposed to be 3-6. And Albert Pujols isn't supposed to be homerless.
• Mop-Up Duty examines Eric Thames' start for the Blue Jays.
• Jack Moore looks at the Brewers' problems preventing runs so far.
• Michael Pineda will throw a bullpen session on Tuesday.
• Will Clark is drinking beer and blowing kisses. Can he still play first base?

Please think these things through: The Twins might be bad on offense, but Ron Gardenhire’s being a worrywart over having Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit in the same lineup is a way to make a bad lineup worse. The issue is that Mauer and Doumit are his two backstops, and there’s that old-school concern that if your starting catcher has to come out you want to have a guy on the bench to back him up. If Doumit is the DH, that swap might hurt the Twins’ offense because they’d lose the designated hitter.

But you'll hurt your offense when you play Clete Thomas over Doumit because he might have to come in and catch a couple of innings if Mauer needs to come out.

That might seem silly to bring up when Thomas is the hero of the hour in the Twin Cities. The recently discovered bit of waiver bait did just hit a home run, after all. But nice first impression aside, don’t forget that this is the same Thomas who was projected to deliver a .660 OPS or so via Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS before the year. Maybe that looks good in Minnesota, but it’s no reasonable solution, even for this lineup.

Speaking of which: Thomas just got Pittaro’d, a legacy that Tigers fans might remember well from the days of the immortal Sparky Anderson back in the ’80s:

• Sparky on Chris Pittaro: "He's going to be a great ballplayer, and that's etched in cement." Pittaro wound up with 102 PAs in the major leagues, hitting .249/.299/.323.
• Leyland on Thomas in February 2011: "Clete, he’s one of our favorites, really. He’s a four-tools guy, he’s got a lot of tools." Favorite or not, Thomas spent 2011 in Toledo, and I’m sure the Tigers will be glad to get the occasional postcard from Minnesota.

Putting the word 'rotate' in your rotation: Speaking of Sparky, Leyland and the Tigers, remember those "Tigers romp" predictions of 10-12 days ago? Well, take another page out of history, because right now the Kitties’ rotation looks a lot like those mid-’80s Motor City squads. That was a rotation that had Jack Morris, a good sidekick or two (Dan Petry and Frank Tanana), and … a cast of dozens that could not hold the lead for a heavy-hitting lineup.

Fast forward and you’ve got Justin Verlander flanked by frustrating/promising Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, and ... well, we’ll see won’t we? It depends on how long Doug Fister is out, but the Tigers are being sensible and cautious with the strike-throwing beanpole.

The camp battle for the fifth starter was supposed to be an amusing sidelight to the Tigers’ season-long stomp to first place. Adam Wilk and Drew Smyly are getting first crack at replacing Fister. In reality they’re still essentially battling over who gets to stay once Fister is ready to return. Andrew Oliver's shot at re-entering the race probably hasn’t been helped by his nine walks in 9 2/3 innings pitched for the Mudhens.

Rotate times two: You might also pity the Padres, if you please. Dustin Moseley's shoulder looks bad, so he may not get to reap the benefit from pitching in Petco, while Tim Stauffer recovers from an injured triceps. In their spots, Bud Black gets to use righties Anthony Bass (15 minor-league starts above A-ball) and Joe Wieland (14).

That might seem like the Padres are pushing things, but they don’t want to call up top prospect Casey Kelly and add him to the 40-man roster any sooner than they have to -- not when they can push off his arbitration eligibility for another year. Bass is an interesting enough utility pitcher who could figure out a changeup and stick as a starter, while Wieland’s upside is that he eventually turns into a nice strike-throwing fourth-starter type -- a lot like Moseley.

Pleading the fifths, and at third: As the schedule starts to hit its regular rhythm, fifth starters Jerome Williams (Angels), Ryan Vogelsong (Giants), Drew Pomeranz (Rockies), Charlie Morton (Pirates) and Ted Lilly (Dodgers) all showed up and pitched over the weekend. So if you were hoping for anything really unconventional, guess again.

One of the things lost from that bit of scheduled shuffling? The Rockies’ commitment to multi-corner substitute Jordan Pacheco didn’t last. In broad strokes, Pacheco might seem like a perfect bench weapon. He switch-hits, plays catcher, third and first, and he has a career .803 OPS in the minors. But three starts in eight games, and see ya -- the Rockies’ hot corner belongs to Chris Nelson. The 2011 season was the first year in the last four that Nelson didn’t lose significant time to injury. Given that Nelson is also projected to deliver just a .714 OPS (again, thanks to Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS), he isn’t a great option for Colorado at third base even if he stays healthy. I suspect Dan O’Dowd’s not going to let this ride any longer than he has to.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Stuff ...

• Baseball America has lists of the 10 youngest players in each full-season league. Mariners pitcher Erasmo Ramirez was the youngest player to make a major league roster, with a May 2, 1990 birthdate. Giancarlo Stanton is still one of the 10 youngest players in the National League.
• Walkoff Woodward looks at what happened to Justin Verlander and the Tigers in Wednesday's ninth inning.
• Neftali Feliz used his changeup a lot in his first start and he was pretty awesome.
• Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman has a piece in Variety exploring how TV networks can justify bidding billions to broadcast baseball games.
• Tristan Cockcroft has a fun look at early season paces. Yes, small sample size. It's still a fun to read.


• ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski looks at which closers are used most effectively -- ie, in high-leverage situations -- by their managers. Kudos to Mike Scioscia and Bruce Bochy.
• Franklin Rabon examines Dan Uggla's reverse-platoon split. Since 2009, Uggla is slugging nearly 50 points higher against righties.
• Our new Blue Jays blog looks at J.P. Arencibia's pitch-framing abilities. Pitch-framing is sort of the new trendy thing in defensive analysis, a big reason the Rays signed Jose Molina this offseason. Obviously, baseball people have always talked about this, but pitch f/x data allows catchers to be studied in this skill.
• One scout still believes Daniel Bard belongs in the bullpen.
• The Padres recalled Joe Wieland and Insider Eric Karabell looks at whether he can help the Padres (and fantasy owners).
• The Brewers have broken off talks with Zack Greinke about a contract extension.
• Will Freddy Galvis become a good player for the Phillies? Or is he ultimately just a younger version of Wilson Valdez? Michael Baumann ponders the question.
• Danny Duffy had a nice start for the Royals on Tuesday. OK, it was against the A's, but there many positives signs for the young left-hander.
• Jon Shields thinks the Mariners should start playing John Jaso more instead of Miguel Olivo. Jaso has yet to appear in game. The knocks against Olivo? He has trouble catching the ball and getting on base. Otherwise ... he's awesome!
• Nick Faleris looked at Brian Matusz's first start of the season for the Orioles. Remember, this is a guy everyone was calling a future ace after 2010.
• Baseball Prospectus has a list of 10 players who should receive contract extensions.
• Jorge Posada will throw out the first pitch at the Yankees' homer opener on Friday.
• Finally, Miami columnist Dan LeBetard was on ESPN Radio talking about the Ozzie Guillen situation.

I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.

1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?

2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.

3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.

4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.

5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.

6. Yu Darvish.

7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.

8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.

9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?

10. Jose Canseco's tweets.

11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.

12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.

13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.

14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.

15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:

A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.

Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.

18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)

19. Defensive runs saved!

Your leaders by position in 2011:

C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward

20. The Sandman.

21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.

(Read full post)

To celebrate the Baseball Today podcast returning to daily shows (Monday through Friday), Mark Simon and I covered many fun topics to get the week started:

1. The Nationals did the right thing sending prospect Bryce Harper to Triple-A, but the surprising part of the news is his position change.

2. With the news from Phillies camp that Chase Utley could be out for a while, is the NL East race really up for grabs? We also talk about the Royals and Padres losing key players.

3. And then there are the Mets. Poor Mark. However, the news from Monday morning actually could be viewed as a positive.

4. In our Simon Says segment, Mark discusses Andy Pettitte’s slider and why it should make him effective again. Hey, the Yankees might really need him.

5. More emails than normal were read, featuring defense, Ozzie Guillen’s ejections and, of course, the all-important ridiculous question of the day.

So download and listen to a fun Monday edition of Baseball Today, the first of more than seven months of entertaining, informative baseball discussion!

If there's one thing we need more of in America, it's eight-pound hamburgers.

So thankfully the Washington Nationals have stepped up to sate our gluttony by introducing the StrasBurger, the Washington Post's Dan Steinberg reports. My favorite part of the news release: The burger will be served on a "large burger bun." Well, I would hope so.

My question: Was Stephen Strasburg consulted on this? Does he approve of being associated with an eight-pound piece of cow flesh? Or are we entering an Albert Pujols situation? I fear there will be repercussions to this burger unveiling.

More links:

• The bloggers at the Capitol Avenue Club react to Chipper Jones' comments that he might not make it through the season.
• Joey Matschulat writes on Mike Napoli's contract situation with the Rangers ... and the lack of an extension or even an apparent discussion.
• The Mariners annually have the most creative promotional commercials. I'm not sure they actually help sell more tickets, but they're fun to watch. The best one this year shows where Justin Smoak gets his bats.
• Chip Buck on the Boston's Sox bullpen situation. The Sox lost Jonathan Papelbon to free agency and Daniel Bard to the rotation, replacing them with Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon. Papelbon and Bard were dominant, both posting WHIPs under 1.00 and combining for 161 strikeouts in 137.1 innings. Papelbon only blew three saves, and didn't lose a game until No. 162, but Bard went 2-9. You can't ignore those nine losses, no matter the other numbers. Here, Bard's OPS allowed in different game situations:Margin greater than 4 runs: .237
  Within 4 runs: .561
  Within 3 runs: .566
  Within 2 runs: .562
  Within 1 run: .653
  Tied: .885
  
  Bard simply wasn't clutch went it mattered most. That's a long-winded way of saying the overall net effect of Bailey and Melancon replacing Papelbon and Bard might not be that severe, assuming those two can come close to the 137 innings the Red Sox got from their top two relievers in 2011 (considering Bailey's health history, that's the bigger question).
• Speaking of bullpens, Ryan Topp of Disciples of Uecker asks, What to expect from the Brewers' pen? Personally, I like Milwaukee's pen as there is a lot of depth behind John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez. The weakness is a lack of a left-hander, a role potentially filled by Zach Braddock or Manny Parra (yes, he's still around).
• Will Jeff Samardzija earn a spot in the Cubs' rotation? So far, so good.
• Brandon Cloud looks at the future of the Rockies -- an examination of all the moves since the Ubaldo Jimenez trade.
• John Bonnes has five storylines to watch for the Twins.
• Who is Tyler Graham? An outfield candidate unlikely to break camp with the Giants, writes Chris Quick. But check out this play he made in center field.
• ESPN Insider Ben Lindbergh looks at five relievers being converted to starters, and suggests Chris Sale is the best bet for a successful transition.
• Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has his organizational prospect rankings. Like ESPN Insider Keith Law, he ranks the Padres No. 1. Keith had Tampa Bay No. 2 and Toronto No. 3, while Kevin has Toronto No. 2 and St. Louis No. 3. Kevin has the Rays well down his list at No. 13.

The over/under on the San Diego Padres is 70.5 or 71 wins.

Is that too low?

The Padres won 71 games in 2011, but they were only outscored by 18 runs. Certainly, they struggled to score, ranking 15th in the NL in runs scored (ahead of only the Giants) and ranking last with just 91 home runs. Some of that is PetCo Park-induced, but looking to improve their offense, the Padres traded staff ace Mat Latos to the Reds for prospects Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger and starter Edinson Volquez. Alonso should step in as the team's starting first baseman while Volquez replaces Latos in the rotation.

Pitcher Aaron Harang signed with the Dodgers but Carlos Quentin was brought in to hopefully provide some power for the outfield. Reliever Andrew Cashner, acquired from the Cubs for Anthony Rizzo, was hitting 102 mph in his first spring training outing.

So what's your take? Will Cory Luebke become the staff ace? Will the Padres score enough runs to reach .500? Or is 71 wins right on target?

Some excellent work from colleagues Tristan Cockcroft and AJ Mass. These pieces are under the fantasy template but apply to "real" baseball as well.

• Texas Rangers: A closer look at what to expect from Neftali Feliz as he moves from the closer role to the starting rotation.
• Boston Red Sox: Similarly, Daniel Bard will move from the bullpen to the rotation for the Red Sox.
• Kansas City Royals: Can Alex Gordon match his 2011 campaign?
• San Diego Padres: Will this be a breakout season for Cameron Maybin?

You can follow the entire "30 Questions" series here.

Considering nothing much really happens, spring training is awesome.

Especially when we get days with fun stories like today. So it's time for our first ever "You Weigh In On Crazy Spring Training Stories Of The Day" topics!

1. Jonathan Papelbon says Phillies fans are smarter than Red Sox fans.

After talking about what it was like playing in Boston, Papelbon added, "The Philly fans tend to know the game a little better, being in the National League, you know, the way the game is played." Now, I'm not exactly sure how he knows this. Or why being a National League fan would necessarily make you smarter. Digging into the mind of Jonathan Papelbon is not something even the craftiest of sabermetricians would attempt to do. Unfortunately, there isn't a good way to test out Papelbon's theory. (Actually there is: Create a quiz. Make some of the questions generic, like knowing the infield fly rule or the number of ways to reach first base. Make some of the questions team-specific. Make all quiz takers register as a fan of a specific team. And then tabulate the results.)

What do you think? Both groups of fans are passionate. Both love the game and respect their team's history. But which group knows baseball better? You weigh in.

2. Will Venable says Yu Darvish has no humility.

So here's the story. Venable doubled high off the center-field wall in Darvish's debut on Wednesday. Darvish, via his translator, said something like the wind carried it, plus Arizona has dry air and that "It didn't seem like a ball that was hit that squarely."

Asked about the comment, Venable said he hit the ball about as well as he could hit a ball and that maybe nobody has ever squared up off Darvish. "I would have liked to hear a little more humility from the guy, Venable added. "To each his own. He's a confident guy. Of course I didn't square up a ball because he's Yu Darvish."

So what do you think? Is Darvish just another cocky pitcher with an attitude and a bad dye job? Does he need to show more humility? Weigh in below in the comments section.

3. Yankees bring in a motivational speaker to ... well, motivate.

Manager Joe Girardi brought in motivational speaker Donnie Moore to inspire his club. Moore tore apart a soda can and phone book with his bare hands! And then twisted a frying pan into a little ball of metal.

So, will this help the Yankees win more games in 2012? Is the power of motivational speaking going to push Robinson Cano to a new level and turn Michael Pineda into a Cy Young winner? Will A-Rod break his wrist trying to rip apart a phone book? Or is this simply a sign that spring training has way too many hours with nothing going on?

Weigh in below in the comments section.

Quick: Name the last Mets All-Star left fielder? No, it wasn't Bernard Gilkey or Darryl Boston. Read on for the answer, as we go team-by-team through the National League to find the longest All-Star droughts at one position. (Here's the AL list.)

Atlanta Braves
Longest All-Star drought: LF -- Ron Gant (1992)

The Braves have had four All-Star right fielders -- Jason Heyward, Gary Sheffield, Brian Jordan, David Justice -- since Gant's 1992 berth when he played left field. Gant hit 30-plus homers each season from 1990 to 1993 ... except '92, when he hit just 17. He even played primarily center field in '90 and '91. So of course '92 was his lone All-Star appearance with Atlanta.

Miami Marlins
Longest All-Star drought: CF -- never

This at least gives us the opportunity to mention the great Chuck Carr, the Marlins' center fielder their first three seasons and the NL's leader in stolen bases in the club's inaugural 1993 season (and also the NL leader in caught stealing). While later playing with the Brewers, manager Phil Garner ordered Carr to take a pitch with a 2-0 count. Carr reportedly responded by saying, "That ain't Chuckie's game. Chuckie hacks on 2-0." He was released a few days later.

New York Mets
Longest All-Star drought: LF -- Clean Jones (1969)

Curiously, the Mets have had few All-Star outfielders -- Richie Ashburn, Duke Snider, Jones, old Willie Mays, Lee Mazzilli, Joel Youngblood (one of the oddest All-Star selections ever), Darryl Strawberry, Bobby Bonilla, Lance Johnson and Carlos Beltran. And six of those 10 made it just once in a Mets uniform, Willie Mays made it because he was Willie Mays, and Ashburn and Snider represented the early, horrid Mets. So, really, the only perennial-type All-Star outfielders the Mets have had in 50 years are Strawberry and Beltran.

Anyway, Jones and center fielder Tommie Agee were the two best position players on the Miracle Mets of 1969. Born five days apart in August of 1942, the two were high school teammates at Mobile County Training School in Alabama. Agee signed with the Indians in 1961, never got a shot there, was traded to the White Sox and won Rookie of the Year honors in 1966, but was then traded to the Mets in 1968 for Tommy Davis. Jones was a football star at Alabama A&M and signed with the Mets in 1963. He had a career year in 1969, hitting .341 at the break to start the All-Star Game and finishing at .340 with a .422 on-base percentage. A major incident of that 1969 season was when manager Gil Hodges pulled Jones in the middle of an inning in a late July for apparently loafing after a fly ball. That was the belief at the time, although Jones later said Hodges would never embarrass him like that and he had a sore ankle.

Philadelphia Phillies
Longest All-Star drought: C -- Mike Lieberthal (2000)

Here's something that seems weird: Jimmy Rollins hasn't made an All-Star team since 2005, meaning he didn't make it in 2007 when he won the NL MVP Award. NL All-Star shortstops since '05: Edgar Renteria, Jose Reyes, David Eckstein, J.J. Hardy, Hanley Ramirez, Cristian Guzman, Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal, Troy Tulowitzki and Starlin Castro.

Washington Nationals
Longest All-Star drought: C and CF -- Darrin Fletcher and Marquis Grissom (1994)

Ah, the poor 1994 Montreal Expos ... Ken Hill, Moises Alou and Wil Cordero were also All-Stars that year.

Chicago Cubs
Longest All-Star drought: 2B -- Ryne Sandberg (1993)

Odds that Darwin Barney fixes this drought? Slim. Although maybe he'll become the first second baseman since Sandberg retired in 1997 to hold the job for more than two seasons.

Cincinnati Reds
Longest All-Star drought: C -- Bo Diaz (1987)

The Reds have actually had some decent production from catchers through the years -- Ramon Hernandez, Ryan Hanigan, David Ross, Eddie Taubensee and Joe Oliver all had their moments -- but none rose to All-Star level. Rookie Devin Mesoraco is expected to develop into an All-Star player.

Houston Astros
Longest All-Star drought: C -- Craig Biggio (1991)

That was Biggio's last season as a catcher before he moved to second base. That meant the Astros needed a catcher, so they traded a prospect named Kenny Lofton to the Indians for Taubensee. Yes, that's two Eddie Taubensee mentions in consecutive paragraphs!

Milwaukee Brewers
Longest All-Star drought: CF -- Dave May (1973)

I almost thought we were going to draw a blank here. What about Robin Yount, you ask? Yount only made three All-Star teams in his career, none as a center fielder (including 1989, when he won MVP honors). What about Gorman Thomas, you ask? Well, Thomas only made one All-Star team, and that was 1981, when the club tried Paul Molitor in center and moved Thomas to right. Molitor wasn't an All-Star that year, Thomas was, but Thomas ended up playing a few more games in right. So that leaves May as the only All-Star center fielder in Brewers history. He had a good season in '73, tied for the AL lead in total bases, eighth in the MVP vote; he wasn't really that good and was a regular only four seasons.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Longest All-Star drought: RF -- Bobby Bonilla (1991)

Would this be a bad time to mention that Mike Williams was the Pirates' All-Star rep in 2003 despite a 6.44 first-half ERA?

St. Louis Cardinals
Longest All-Star drought: 2B -- Tommie Herr (1985)

This was the year Herr drove in 110 runs despite hitting only eight home runs. Only two other players since 1950 have knocked in 100 runs with fewer than 10 homers: Paul Molitor in 1996 and George Kell in 1950. Batting behind Vince Coleman and Ozzie Smith, Herr hit .335 with runners in scoring position. The Cardinals have really had much production from second base since, with Fernando Vina's 2000-02 run being the best.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Longest All-Star drought: SS and 1B -- never

The D-backs have never had the same first baseman for more than two seasons in a row.

Colorado Rockies
Longest All-Star drought: C -- never

Not even Coors Field could help Kirt Manwaring earn an All-Star nod.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Longest All-Star drought: 3B -- Pedro Guerrero (1983)

Guerrero was one of the best hitters in baseball in the early and mid-'80s and in one of his less enlightened moments Tommy Lasorda tried Guerrero at third base for a season and a half. Forty-six errors later, he moved Guerrero back to the outfield. Guerrero, by the way, was originally signed by Cleveland. After one season in rookie ball, Cleveland traded him for somebody named Bruce Ellingsen, a 24-year-old left-hander coming off a 6.71 ERA at Triple-A Albuquerque. This was in 1974. The Indians did stuff like that back then.

San Diego Padres
Longest All-Star drought: C and SS -- Benito Santiago, Tony Fernandez (1992)

Santiago was a four-time All-Star with the Padres even though his OBP was under .300 in three of those seasons. The fans voted him as the starter each of those years. There was an odd infatuation with Santiago back then that is difficult to explain.

San Francisco Giants
Longest All-Star drought: RF -- Chili Davis (1986)

For years, the Giants' inability to find decent running mates for Barry Bonds in the outfield plagued the franchise. In the 2002 World Series season, the regulars in center and right were Tsuyoshi Shinjo and Reggie Sanders. The year before the team won 90 games with Calvin Murray and Armando Rios. In 1993, the team that lost the division by one game, Darren Lewis and Willie McGee combined for six home runs in nearly 1,100 at-bats. And so on.

With all of this talking about production up the middle or at the four corners over the past 25 years, it might also be helpful to put this into perspective by asking: Who’s average?

Here again, I’m indebted to Clay Davenport’s work in creating Equivalent Average, as useful a tool for all-time performance on offense today as it was in the ’90s. Sticking with the 2011 and following Clay’s advice to cheat up a couple of points -- to avoid the impact of the real scrubs -- let’s look at who set the bar for mediocrity at all eight regular positions in the field:

Catcher: Rod Barajas, .258 Equivalent Average (EqA). Sure, he struggles to get on base, but Barajas’ modest pop at the plate -- delivering a .200 ISO last season -- and solid receiving skills makes him the acme of average from the backstop bin. In Pittsburgh, he might help propel their latest bid for a .500 season.
Runner-up: The Brewers’ Jonathan Lucroy, .254 EqA.

First Base: Freddie Freeman, .286 EqA. This might seem like an indictment of the Atlanta Braves’ prodigy, but the standards for offense at first base are higher than at any position, and this isn’t a shabby place to start for a kid in his age-21 season.
Runner-up: The Marlins’ Gaby Sanchez, .284 EqA.

Second Base: Orlando Hudson, .268 EqA. Hudson’s power has taken a hit the last two years since going to slugger-sapping Target Field and now the Padres’ Petco Park, but he still provides average offense for the position and above-average glove work, so he’ll keep landing gigs.
Runner-up: The Mets’ Justin Turner, .263 EqA, and an excellent example of how GMs can still find plug-in players on the waiver wire.

Third Base: One of the funny things about the field is that you’d be hard-pressed to find a truly average regular at third, but the closest might be Casey Blake with the Dodgers (.268 EqA) or Jack Hannahan with the Indians (.263), so let’s call it a platoon and punt on picking a runner-up.

Shortstop: Clint Barmes, .257 EqA. Here we have another Pirates offseason acquisition, which might be taken as proof that average is the new up, or that it takes a certain kind of player to choose to go to Pittsburgh. But more fundamentally, Barmes reflects today’s higher standard for adequacy on offense at short, because beyond premium defense he ripped a dozen homers for the Astros.
Runner-up: The White Sox’s Alexei Ramirez, .256 EqA, and another example after knocking 15 homers of his own.

Left Field: Cody Ross, .273 EqA. In contrast, here’s a great example of the declining standard for what gets by in left. The hero of the postseason in 2010 went back to his more mortal form at the plate with the Giants, and looks like he’ll be shunted into a part-time role with the Red Sox, splitting time in right field or spotting for the injured Carl Crawford in left early on.
Runner-up: Jason Bay, .270 EqA, and a symbol of the Mets’ bang-less bucks at work.

Center Field: Adam Jones, .273 EqA. Here’s a reflection on what a difference a position makes. Cody Ross? Not in high demand. Adam Jones of the Orioles? He’s a star, and somebody many teams would love to trade for.
Runner-up: The Diamondbacks’ Chris Young, .270 EqA. Keep in mind, Equivalent Average is park-adjusted, so all that slugging the Snakes get from their center fielder at home -- including 14 of his 20 homers, with a 131-point difference between his home and road SLG.

Right Field: Seth Smith, .283 EqA. Right’s the premium offensive position in the outfield these days, so the standard for average is going to be a bit higher. It says something about the Athletics’ lot on offense that they traded for Smith and fell he’ll provide a big boost with his bat from either corner.
Runner-up: Jeff Francoeur, .279 EqA. His comeback with the Royals was nice to see, but it’s a reflection of the depths he plummeted to during his three years in the wilderness that he’s gone from awful to average, not awesome.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Mat Latos is already a pretty good pitcher. You know the résumé: Young, throws hard, good strikeout rate, pretty good control, succeeded in a great pitcher's park in San Diego.

What the Cincinnati Reds are hoping, of course, is that they acquired a No. 1, an ace to front their rotation. Did they? Time will tell, but let's do a little study to see the pitchers Latos compares with. Via the awesomeness of the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index, I looked for pitchers in the past 20 years with the following attributes: (1) 23 years old; (2) thrown at 350 innings in the majors; (3) averaged at least 6.5 strikeout per nine innings; (4) had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of at least 1.75.

This gives us 21 pitchers including Latos, a pretty good comp list of young power pitchers who showed early success in the majors.



So, what happened to those guys after they entered their age-24 season? Since the Reds have control of Latos for the next four seasons, let's see how they did from ages 24 to 27 (or as many seasons as applicable). We'll rank the pitchers in order of ERA+ (ERA adjusted for park and league context, scaled to 100), with their average innings pitched per season over the applicable years in parenthesis.

1. Pedro Martinez, 173 ERA+ (226 innings)
2. Rich Harden, 140 (90)
3. Felix Hernandez, 137 (242)
4. CC Sabathia, 134 (221)
5. Matt Cain, 132 (221)
6. Jake Peavy, 127 (201)
7. Carlos Zambrano, 126 (211)
8. Tom Gordon, 110 (154)
9. Andy Benes, 103 (204)
10. Ramon Martinez, 101 (185)
11. Mark Prior, 101 (105)
12. Ismael Valdez, 99 (162)
13. Chad Billingsley, 98 (192)
14. Scott Kazmir, 89 (150)
15. Oliver Perez, 89 (137)
16. Dontrelle Willis, 88 (122)
17. Scott Olsen, 88 (115)
18. Jeremy Bonderman, 85 (107)

OK, not surprisingly, we see a range of outcomes, from success stories to guys who stagnated or regressed to guys who developed arm problems.

The biggest positive I see about Latos is he has the third-best SO/BB ratio on the list, behind Mark Prior and Brett Anderson. His strikeout rate is seventh, although two of those ahead of him are Oliver Perez and Scott Kazmir.

Latos' adjusted ERA through age 23 isn't that impressive, since he's been pitching in San Diego. However, it's worth noting that in his career he's pitched 244 innings on the road, 185 at home. He does have a better ERA at Petco (3.11 to 3.57), but his peripherals remain strong on the road.

It's also worth noting that Latos doesn't have a lot of wear on his arm. He only pitched 184 innings in the minor leagues, missing time in 2008 with a strained oblique and sore shoulder. He also began the 2011 season on the disabled list with an inflamed bursa sac in his right shoulder but only missed one start. While the minor shoulder issues certainly raise a red flag, there are no signs of extraneous workload like you can point to with Prior or Kazmir.

Latos' character and cockiness have been questioned in the past, but I'm not concerned about those issues; heck, Pedro Martinez wasn't exactly the most well-liked opponent either.

If there's a direct comparison to make, it could be two to other towering pitchers. Like Latos, Andy Benes stood 6-foot-6 and threw hard. He also came up with the Padres. Benes remained a solid pitcher (155 wins) but never took his game to the next level. So Reds fans can perhaps hope for the CC Sabathia career path. Through age 23, Sabathia had already pitched four seasons in the big leagues, with a 4.12 ERA. He improved his strikeout and walk rates at age 24, improved even more at age 25 and won a Cy Young Award at age 26.

By popular demand, we're back with more position rankings for 2012. Last week we tackled the NL East. This week, we'll give the NL West a shot. Remember, this is what I call back-of-the-napkin rankings. Quick and fun, but feel free to debate, argue and protest.

Catcher
1. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
2. Buster Posey, Giants
3. Nick Hundley, Padres
4. Ramon Hernandez, Rockies
5. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers

Until Posey shows he's healed from his devastating injury, Montero has to be considered the clear No. 1. And it's not like he's undeserving: He made his first All-Star appearance last season and has enough bat to hit cleanup on a division-winning team; he also threw out a league-leading 40 percent of base stealers and probably should have won the Gold Glove. Hundley put up an impressive .288/.347/.477 line in San Diego that gave him a higher OPS+ than Montero, but he did that in a part-time role.

First base
1. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
2. Yonder Alonso, Padres
3. Todd Helton, Rockies
4. James Loney, Dodgers
5. Aubrey Huff, Giants

You can slice and dice these five guys anyway you want. I like Goldschmidt's power potential, and he showed improvement in plate discipline in the minors (drawing 82 walks in 103 games in Double-A in 2011). He held his own in the majors, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 30 home runs. I'll rate Alonso over Helton primarily because of Helton's health concerns. Loney at least plays every day (he's missed just 10 games in the past four seasons), but I'm not sure that's a good thing for the Dodgers. Huff has now been terrible two years out of three. I wonder whether we'll end up seeing a lot of Brandon Belt here.

Second base
1. Freddy Sanchez, Giants
2. Orlando Hudson, Padres
3. Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks
4. Mark Ellis, Dodgers
5. Chris Nelson, Rockies

Disagree with this order? I can't say I'd have the energy to fight you on that.

Third base
1. Pablo Sandoval, Giants
2. Chase Headley, Padres
3. Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks
4. Juan Uribe/Jerry Hairston, Dodgers
5. Casey Blake, Rockies

Sandoval became one of the best players in the league in 2011, as he hit for average and power and played surprisingly well at third. His conditioning always will be a concern, of course, but if he can put up the numbers he did last season over 155 games instead of 117, he could be a sleeper MVP candidate. Headley hit just four home runs in 381 at-bats in 2011, but his on-base ability (.374) still made him a more productive hitter than Roberts, who hit 19 home runs but with a .341 OBP. If those two changed parks, you'd see a big difference in each player's stat line. The Dodgers have Uribe, Hairston and Adam Kennedy fighting for playing time at third base, which isn't exactly like Ron Cey pushing Steve Garvey over to first base. Blake is a placeholder until prospect stud Nolan Arenado is ready, which could be as soon as midseason.

Shortstop
1. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
2. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
3. Dee Gordon, Dodgers
4. Jason Bartlett, Padres
5. Brandon Crawford, Giants

Umm, let's just say we're starting to see why Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young Award. Not a lot of offense in this division. I do love the excitement Gordon brings to the field, but he's going to have to learn to draw a few walks to make him a valuable offensive player. Man cannot leave on speed alone. The Giants appear willing to give Crawford a chance, but he can't hit, so will have to be a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop to hold on to the job.

Left field
1. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
2. Carlos Quentin, Padres
3. Jason Kubel/Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks
4. Melky Cabrera, Giants
5. Juan Rivera/Tony Gwynn Jr., Dodgers

It's possible that Gonzalez will end up in right with Michael Cuddyer in left because Gonzalez has the stronger arm, but we'll line it up this way for now. I actually like the Quentin acquisition for the Padres, as they were obviously desperate for somebody who could launch a few over the wall. We'll see how Quentin's power numbers translate from The Cell (one of the best home run parks in the majors) to Petco (the worst home run park in the majors). The Kubel signing was a strange one by Arizona, as he's a defensive liability and Parra was coming off an impressive season. Cabrera had a career year for the Royals (.305/.339/.470, 18 home runs, 44 doubles), but I'm having trouble getting over the five previous seasons of mediocrity.

Center field
1. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
2. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
3. Cameron Maybin, Padres
4. Dexter Fowler, Rockies
5. Angel Pagan, Giants

Kemp should have been the NL MVP after his monster season, leading the NL in home runs, RBIs and runs scored while hitting .324 and stealing 40 bases. According to Baseball-Reference WAR, it was the best season by a major league outfielder not named Bonds since Sammy Sosa in 2001, and the best by an outfielder not named Bonds or Sosa since Rickey Henderson scored a similar 10.0 WAR in 1990. Young and Maybin are both gifted center fielders with some holes in their swings, but Young drew 80 walks to Maybin's 44 and had a 61-41 edge in extra-base hits. We keep waiting for Fowler to have a breakthrough season, but he'll now be 26 with three seasons under his belt. He's not a bad player, but I think we can cross star potential off his résumé.

Right field
1. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
2. Michael Cuddyer, Rockies
3. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
4. Brandon Belt, Giants
5. Will Venable, Padres

Wait ... Ethier won a Gold Glove? How did that happen? Ethier had the 30-game hitting streak early last season but then tried to play through a knee injury before finally shutting down in early September. His power numbers took a big hit from previous years, but he should bounce back. Just don't take that Gold Glove seriously; he's not a great right fielder and probably not even a good one. But neither is Cuddyer or Belt. I still believe in Belt and wouldn't be surprised to see him produce a .270/.370/.470 line. If he moves to first base, Nate Schierholtz is a capable right fielder coming off his best season. Venable is a platoon player who can actually hit a little, not that anybody puts up big numbers in Petco.

No. 1 starter
1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
3. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks
4. Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies
5. Tim Stauffer, Padres

I love Chacin, but this is a tough field. Some folks are a down a bit on Lincecum, whose strikeout rate has dropped from 10.5 in 2008 to a career-low 9.1 in 2011. Meanwhile, his walk rate spiked up to its highest rate since his rookie season. Still, that K rate was fifth-best in the NL, and he finished fifth in the NL in ERA. Lincecum's average fastball velocity actually increased from 2010 (when he suddenly lost it for a month in August), so I'm not too worried. He's such a unique pitcher that any sort of traditional analysis might not apply to him. Kennedy finished fourth in the Cy Young vote after going 21-4, 2.88, and there was nothing fluky about his season. He pounds the strike zone with a fastball that isn't overpowering. He isn't afraid to throw it up in the strike zone, and with Young, Parra and Upton behind him in the outfield, he thrived. Chacin needs to cut his walk rate (he led the NL with 87 walks) to leap to star status.

No. 2 starter
1. Matt Cain, Giants
2. Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks
3. Cory Luebke, Padres
4. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
5. Jason Hammel, Rockies

Don't skip over Luebke too quickly: He had an unheralded season pitching out of the bullpen, then made 17 starts. He struck out 154 in 139.2 innings, and his K rate was the same while starting as it was in relief. He also posted a 2.55 ERA on the road, so I don't see any Petco illusions going on here. Billingsley had a disappointing season, as his ERA shot up to 4.21 and his WHIP to 1.45. He still struggles against lefties (.382 OBP allowed) and even if he bounces back, I like the other three better. The Rockies are counting on Jorge De La Rosa to return from Tommy John surgery in late May or June, but for now, Hammel slots in as the No. 2.

No. 3 starter
1. Madison Bumgarner, Giants
2. Trevor Cahill, Diamondbacks
3. Ted Lilly, Dodgers
4. Clayton Richard, Padres
5. Kevin Slowey, Rockies

Bumgarner could be a sleeper Cy Young candidate this season if he takes another step forward. He had an outstanding 4.15 strikeout/walk ratio, 10th-best among major league starters, and he got better as the season went along, posting a 2.52 ERA in the second half. Oh, and he's just 22.

No. 4 starter
1. Chris Capuano, Dodgers
2. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants
3. Josh Collmenter, Diamondbacks
4. Alex White/Drew Pomeranz, Rockies
5. Edinson Volquez, Padres

White, one of the arms acquired in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal, is a power righty, but I'm skeptical after his dismal late-season showing in 2011 (12 home runs in 36.1 innings with Colorado). I'm more optimistic about Pomeranz, the lefty acquired in that trade. Vogelsong and Collmenter were two of the biggest surprises of the 2011 season; we'll see whether they can repeat. I'll be cautious and rank Capuano No. 1. He had a 4.55 ERA with the Mets but excellent peripheral numbers. Volquez was good back in 2008. That's starting to seem like a long time ago.

No. 5 starter
1. Aaron Harang, Dodgers
2. Wade Miley/Trevor Bauer, Diamondbacks
3. Dustin Moseley, Padres
4. Juan Nicasio/Tyler Chatwood, Rockies
5. Barry Zito, Giants

Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 draft, has the most potential of anyone on this list. He has the polish to break camp with the D-backs and provide solid numbers at the back of the rotation. Nicasio is trying to return after the scary injury last season when he was struck in the neck by a line drive and broke his C1 vertebra, which required doctors putting in a metal plate to stabilize the neck. His career was obviously in jeopardy, but he was recently cleared to throw to hitters. Let's root for his return.

Closer
1. Brian Wilson, Giants
2. J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks
3. Rafael Betancourt, Rockies
4. Huston Street, Padres
5. Javy Guerra, Dodgers

These guys are all pretty good, so no insult intended. The interesting situation is if the Dodgers hand over the closer job to the dominating Kenley Jansen. His K rate of 16.1 whiffs per nine innings was the highest in major league history for a pitcher with at least 50 innings. He held batters to a .159 average. If he replaces Guerra, I think he has to move to No. 1 on this list.

Bullpen
1. Giants -- Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Dan Runzler
2. Diamondbacks -- David Hernandez, Bryan Shaw, Takashi Saito, Craig Breslow, Brad Ziegler
3. Dodgers -- Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier, Scott Elbert, Mike MacDougal, Blake Hawksworth
4. Padres -- Luke Gregerson, Ernesto Frieri, Andrew Cashner, Joe Thatcher, Anthony Bass
5. Rockies -- Matt Belisle, Rex Brothers, Matt Reynolds, Matt Lindstrom, Edgmer Escalona

To be honest, there isn't a big difference between these 'pens. The Giants would appear to have the most depth, although they do lose Ramon Ramirez after his trade to the Mets. That merely moves up the awesome Sergio Romo into the primary setup role. This is a guy who had 70 strikeouts and just five walks, yet was used as a ROOGY with just 48 innings in 65 games. The Dodgers have a nice 1-2 with Jansen and Guerrier, but might lack depth. The Padres have some young power arms in Cashner, Frieri, Bass and Brad Brach that give them intriguing depth and potential.

Intangibles
1. Diamondbacks
2. Giants
3. Padres
4. Rockies
5. Dodgers

Kirk Gibson got the most of his club in 2011, and there's no reason not to expect the same attitude and effort in 2012. The D-backs have depth in guys like Parra and Willie Bloomquist, plus a young arm in Bauer who could be a huge lift. The Giants will get Posey back, and while their offense doesn't appear great, guys like Cabrera, Pagan and an improved Belt could provide big upgrades over 2011. I get the feeling those Arizona-San Francisco games will be a little more heated this year. The Padres will have no expectations, which I think can be a good thing, and I like the moves they've made. The Rockies could have a mess of a rotation; you never how those young arms will develop. The Dodgers? Kemp, Kershaw and a lot of overpaid veterans doesn't seem like the best of mixes.

The final tally
(Five points for first, four for second, etc.)

1. Diamondbacks, 63 points
2. Giants, 54 points
3. Dodgers, 44 points
4. Padres, 42 points
5. Rockies, 37 points

I thought the rankings would end up more closely grouped together, especially since the NL West has been the toughest division to predict in recent years. Just a year ago, for example, a lot of analysts were high on the Rockies. A year later, they have Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and a whole bunch of question marks. Arizona rates as the favorite largely based on the belief that it has no outstanding weaknesses, but by no means would I suggest they are the heavy favorite over the Giants. And there's part of me that wouldn't be surprised to see the Padres make a big improvement from 2011. One thing is certain: It's going to be another wild West race.