SweetSpot: Seattle Mariners
Bad baseball: Final tanking standings
1. Astros: 51-111
Just in case they were worried about the Marlins catching them, they lost their final 15 games to ensure the No. 1 pick for the third draft in a row.
2. Marlins: 62-100
Kudos to Henderson Alvarez for his final-day no-hitter. In fact, the Marlins swept the Tigers in that season-ending series and won five of their final six, allowing just seven runs over those six games.
3. White Sox: 63-99
Tried hard to catch the Marlins, going 7-21 in September and losing five of their final six. Went 2-17 against the Indians, although no truth to the rumor that the Indians will share their playoff shares with the White Sox.
4. Cubs: 66-96
Ended up tied with the Twins, but get the higher pick based on 2012 record. And boy did they fight hard to get that fourth pick. Lost six of their final seven and 12 of their final 15.
5. Twins: 66-96
Lost 10 of final 11. Too bad they beat the Tigers in extra innings on Sept. 23 or they would be drafting one slot higher. In Sunday's finale, ensured defeat with three errors. In the sixth inning. Nice job, Twins!
6. Mariners: 71-91
Went 6-14 over their final 20 games to slide from a bubble team securely into a top-10 position. Lost their final eight extra-inning games, proving there's an art to successful tanking. Namely: A bad bullpen helps.
7. Phillies: 73-89
It looked like they would jump out of the bottom 10 but then lost nine of their final 11. No wonder Ryne Sandberg got the job for next year! The final game was huge, as the Phillies came up big with a 12-5 loss to the Braves.
Now, this is where things get really interesting. We had a four-way tie for spots 8 through 11. The tiebreaker is 2012 record. So ...
8. Rockies: 74-88
Those two one-run wins over the Dodgers on Saturday and Sunday didn't help, but the tiebreaker gives them the edge. Not that they'll be pursuing Robinson Cano or anything.
9. Blue Jays: 74-88
How nervous was GM Alex Anthopoulos watching the Jays nearly rally from a 7-0 deficit on Sunday? They did beat the Rays twice on the final weekend but still lost 12 of their final 19.
10. Mets: 74-88
The Mets had the most to lose if they finished out of the top 10, since they presumably could be pursuing some of the big free agents this winter. Luckily the offense came through with three straight 4-2 losses to the Brewers (before winning the season finale 3-2).
11. Brewers: 74-88
Well, this is what a 15-12 record in September will do to you. No Kyle Lohse for the Brewers this offseason!
12. Padres: 76-86
Yes, Padres fans, there were 11 teams worse than yours.
13. Giants: 76-86
The Giants went 10-5 over their final 15 to at least avoid becoming just the second World Series winner (after the 1997 Marlins) to finish in last place the next season. So there's that.
14. Angels: 78-84
A 21-7 stretch in August/September ruined any chance the Angels had of finishing with a top-10 pick. So if they went to throw $250 million at Cano, it will cost them their first-round pick.
SweetSpot's 2013 AL All-Star team
Catcher: Joe Mauer, Twins (.324/.404/.476, 11 HRs, 47 RBIs, 5.2 WAR)
There's not a real clear choice, as Mauer played just 75 of his 113 games behind the plate, but he's the best hitter among the catchers and threw out a league-leading 43 percent of base stealers. Carlos Santana has good offensive numbers, but he played a lot of first base and DH and struggled defensively. Jason Castro's fine season was buried in the Astros' awfulness, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia has hit .272, raising his average 50 points from last year, while bashing 40 doubles and 14 home runs. If he had played a little more behind the plate -- he started 95 games -- he might have been my choice.
First base: Chris Davis, Orioles (.287/.370/.637, 53 HRs, 138 RBIs, 6.7 WAR)
Davis is the easy choice in a weak year at first base in the AL. The only other two first basemen to slug .500 were Edwin Encarnacion, who spent a large chunk of his time at DH, and Brandon Moss, a platoon player. Davis joined Babe Ruth and Albert Belle as the only players with 50 home runs and 40 doubles in a season.
Second base: Robinson Cano, Yankees (.313/.383/.514, 27 HRs, 106 RBIs, 7.6 WAR)
In a year when so much went wrong with the Yankees, Cano was the one constant, missing just one game and putting up his usual excellent numbers. Now the Yankees have to decide exactly how much they're willing to pay for those numbers. Teams like the Dodgers and Nationals could pursue the free agent this winter.
Third base: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.347/.441/.637, 44 HRs, 137 RBIs, 7.1 WAR)
Despite the injury issues that have slowed him in September (.265, just two extra-base hits and seven RBIs), Cabrera remains the likely MVP winner, thanks in part to a .397/.529/.782 mark with runners in scoring position. It's a deep position with Josh Donaldson having his own MVP-caliber season, Manny Machado catching everything at the hot corner and Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre once again doing everything, but it's hard to deny Miggy's dominance with the bat.
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy, Orioles (.262/.305/.432, 25 HRs, 74 RBIs, 3.6 WAR)
There's not an obvious guy at the position. Hardy is good defensively and has power, but that .305 OBP lowers his offensive value. Yunel Escobar may have had the best year on defense, but a slow start dragged down his offense. Elvis Andrus plays great defense and has 41 steals but doesn't give you much at the plate. Jed Lowrie stayed healthy and hit but lacks range. In the end, I went with Hardy, who has played 157 games and gives you a little on both sides of the ball.
Left field: Mike Trout, Angels (.323/.431/.554, 26 HRs, 94 RBIs, 9.1 WAR)
OK, I cheated a little bit since Trout actually started more games in center than left. But the state of left field in the AL is pretty pathetic, with Alex Gordon and Michael Brantley the only other two rated as even 2.0 WAR players.
Center field: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox (.297/.355/.421, 8 HRs, 52 RBIs, 5.7 WAR)
Ellsbury also stole 52 bases in 56 attempts, the second-best percentage ever for a player with at least 50 steals. Orioles fans will argue for Adam Jones, who has 33 home runs and 108 RBIs, but he's drawn just 25 walks so his OBP is a mediocre .318 and his defense doesn't match Ellsbury's.
Right field: Shane Victorino, Red Sox (.297/.354/.456, 15 HRs, 61 RBIs, 6.2 WAR)
He's been solid offensively -- including hitting .303 and slugging .515 while having to bat right-handed against right-handed pitchers after a hamstring injury prevented him from batting left-handed. He has been terrific defensively with 24 Defensive Runs Saved, the sixth-best total in the majors at any position. Again, nobody with big numbers here on offense, especially with Jose Bautista's season-ending injury, but Victorino is a worthy selection.
Designated hitter: David Ortiz, Red Sox (.308/.395/.565, 30 HRs, 103 RBIs, 4.3 WAR)
At 37, he's still going strong with his seventh 30-homer, 100-RBI season. Hall of Famer? He's up to 431 career home runs and 1,429 RBIs.
Starting pitchers: Max Scherzer, Tigers (21-3, 2.90 ERA, 6.6 WAR); Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners (14-6, 2.66 ERA, 7.0 WAR); Chris Sale, White Sox (11-14, 3.07 ERA, 7.0 WAR); Yu Darvish, Rangers (13-9, 2.82 ERA, 5.7 WAR); Anibal Sanchez, Tigers (14-8, 2.64 ERA, 6.0 WAR)
Apologies to Bartolo Colon and Felix Hernandez, and even Clay Buchholz, who went 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 16 starts.
Left-handed setup guy: Neal Cotts, Rangers (7-3, 1.13 ERA)
Cotts was one of the great stories of the season. He hadn't pitched in the majors since 2009, having Tommy John and four hip surgeries in the intervening years. He pitched in 25 games for the Rangers in Triple-A last year and started there again this season before getting recalled. In 55 2/3 innings, he's allowed just eight runs and 35 hits while striking out 63.
Right-handed setup guy: David Robertson, Yankees (5-1, 2.07 ERA)
For those worried about replacing Mariano Rivera as Yankees closer, the bigger question may actually be: Who replaces Robertson as the eighth-inning guy?
Closer: Koji Uehara, Red Sox (4-1, 21 saves, 1.10 ERA)
Apologies to Kansas City's Greg Holland, who has a 1.23 ERA and 46 saves, and Texas' Joe Nathan, who has a 1.41 ERA and 43 saves. But Uehara, who began the year in middle relief, has put up one of the most dominant relief seasons ever, limiting batters to a .129 average with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 100-to-9.
The 10 worst decisions of 2013
10. Angels give $125 million to Josh Hamilton. It's easy to forget that Hamilton hit 43 home runs and finished fifth in the MVP voting with the Rangers last season. But that was fueled by a huge first half. A big increase in strikeouts compared to 2011 and an increasingly poor approach at the plate were warning signals that he could be a risky investment. Hamilton salvaged his season a little in the second half, but he's still a guy with a .304 OBP and the Angels will be on the hook for $30 million a season in 2016 and 2017 -- his age 35 and 36 seasons.
9. Rockies give rotation spot to Jeff Francis. Francis had a 5.00 ERA with the Rockies in 2010. He had a 4.82 ERA with the Royals in 2011. He had a 5.58 ERA with the Rockies in 2012. The Rockies thought it was a good idea to give him 11 starts. Look, if three guys get hurt and you have to use Francis to fill in, OK. But 11 starts? He went 2-5 with a 6.61 ERA.
8. Yankees have no backup plan for Derek Jeter. Knowing Jeter's return from last October's broken ankle didn't have an exact timetable, and knowing his defense was an issue even when he was healthy, the Yankees needed an alternative plan -- and, no, Jayson Nix and Eduardo Nunez weren't good ideas. I advocated early in the season that the Yankees go after defensive whiz Brendan Ryan, a move the team finally made in September. Nix, a .214 career hitter entering the season, didn't hit much and Nunez, a terrible fielder, rated at minus-28 Defensive Runs Saved, the worst total of any player in the majors.
7. Brewers pretend Yuniesky Betancourt is still a major league player. Giving Betancourt 396 plate appearances is kind of like giving up. Betancourt hit .280 with six home runs and 21 RBIs in April. Fake! He was still Yuniesky Betancourt and has hit .189/.215/.287 from May 8 on -- that's 284 PAs. Once it became obvious that April was a fluke, why keep him around all season?
6. Royals count on Jeff Francoeur for more than clubhouse leadership. The Royals believed so much in Francoeur that they traded super prospect Wil Myers to keep Francoeur in right field. Even though Francoeur hit .235/.287/.378 in 2012 and was worth minus-2.3 WAR. As in, way below replacement level. Francoeur played 59 games, struck out 49 times, drew eight walks, hit .208 and was mercifully released on July 5. There also was the Chris Getz problem at second. Or Ned Yost batting Alcides Escobar second for nearly 300 at-bats despite a .274 OBP. Or that Carlos Pena pinch-hit appearance ... if you get the idea that Yost had a bad year, well ...
5. Royals give Wade Davis 24 starts. Part of the controversial Myers-James Shields trade, Davis had pitched very well for Tampa Bay out of the bullpen in 2012, but the Royals decided to return Davis to the rotation, where he had mediocre results in 2010 and 2011 (4.27 ERA). Giving Davis a chance to start wasn't the worst idea, although he wasn't that great as a starter in Tampa considering the Rays' great defense and a pitcher's park. He was better in relief because his fastball ticked up in shorter outings. The big problem here was Yost kept running Davis out there despite a 5.67 ERA and .320 batting average allowed. The Royals have allowed the fewest runs in the AL, but what if Bruce Chen had joined the rotation before mid-July?
4. Mariners think it's a good idea to play Michael Morse and Raul Ibanez in the outfield. Together. OK, we'll be a little fair to GM Jack Zduriencik, who did reportedly acquire Justin Upton, only to see Upton veto the trade. He also pursued Hamilton. So Morse was kind of a Plan C or Plan D, the hope being his bat would make up for his lousy defense. Nope. Morse's defense was predictably awful, plus he didn't hit. When Franklin Gutierrez spent the year raising sheep in Australia instead of playing center field, that forced the Mariners to use Ibanez regularly in left field, giving them two of the worst (the worst?) corner defenders in the majors.
3. Giants stand pat with Barry Zito. OK, he beat Justin Verlander in Game 1 of the World Series, which pretty much justified that $126 million contract all by itself. While it was understandable to open the season with Zito in the rotation -- he was at least serviceable last season before his clutch postseason performances -- you couldn't assume Zito would roll 30 starts again. Zito went 5-11 with a 5.75 ERA as the Giants gave him 25 starts. But that ERA comes courtesy of help from pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. Zito went a stunning 0-9 on the road with a 9.56 ERA and .401 average allowed. Basically, on the road, the average hitter against Zito was Ted Williams.
2. Angels sign Joe Blanton. Considering Blanton had a 4.79 ERA in the National League over the three previous seasons, the odds that he would perform better moving over to the American League seemed slim. There may have been some belief that Blanton's fly-ball tendencies would work in Anaheim. Wishful thinking. He went 2-14 with a 6.04 ERA. Meanwhile, the Angels let Ervin Santana go, and he had a great year for the Royals.
1. The Phillies go Young. Let's see. Delmon Young and Michael Young were worth a combined minus-2.8 WAR in 2012, with the Defensive Runs Saved statistic suggesting both were lousy defenders. Ruben Amaro flouted advanced metrics and acquired both players. They combined for minus-2.3 WAR while with the Phillies. On a perhaps related note, the Phillies have allowed the second-most runs in the NL.
Five important issues for next commish
1. Instant replay and quality of umpiring
We finally get expanded replay next season, so that should help resolve some of the controversial and blown calls. It remains to be seen how effective and efficient the system will be, but it can be adjusted as necessary. Just as importantly, the new commissioner has to work to improve consistency of ball/strike calls and reduce the episodes of ump rage.
Right now, the best umps (Eric Cooper, Chad Fairchild, Phil Cuzzi) get about 90 percent of ball/strike calls correct, according to our pitch data; the worst umps (Wally Bell, Tim Welke, Kerwin Danley, Jerry Meals) are at 86 percent. That difference may not seem like a lot, but that's a spread of 10 incorrect calls per 250 pitches. Even a 90 percent correct rate means the best umps are missing about 25 to 30 ball/strike calls a game. Maybe the human eye can't do better, but MLB needs to pay its umpire better, and in particular pay minor league umpires a living wage, so you can recruit from a wider field of candidates.
2. To DH or not to DH?
This ridiculousness has gone on too long. You simply can't have one sport with two leagues playing under different rules. The answer seems to be pretty obvious: Get rid of the designated hitter. There were only four full-time DHs this year: David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, Billy Butler and Kendrys Morales. They all batted at least 500 times as a DH. Nobody else even had 300 plate appearances (including Adam Dunn, who played a lot of first base). With so few teams actually using a DH, the resolution should be pretty clear. OK, so Butler is the youngest of those four and signed through 2015. No DH starting in 2016.
3. Oakland and Tampa Bay stadium issues
Look, both organizations have shown they can compete and win in spite of their lousy ballparks and low revenue. Part of the problem is that other teams are tired of propping up the Rays and A's. "The key here is to recognize that without the revenue-sharing dollars, we wouldn't even be able to compete or do what we're doing," Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said in August. "The other owners are looking at this and saying, 'How many years is this going to be? How much money is this going to be to a failing situation?'"
Oakland's problem is more easily solved. The A's want to move to San Jose; the Giants hold territorial rights to Santa Clara County (given to them years ago by the A's). A three-quarters majority vote of all owners can return those rights to the A's, but Selig has refused to call for a vote, wanting unanimity, including the Giants. Well, of course, the Giants would vote against it. The new commish should side with the A's here and get them, literally, out of the sewage.
4. Tanking
I've written about this issue. Buster Olney addressed it the other day. The current collective bargaining agreement makes it beneficial for teams to lose -- either to get a higher draft position (and thus more money to spend in the draft) or finish with one of the 10 worst records and thus have a protected first-round pick when signing free agents. What kind of sport essentially encourages tanking for 10 or more teams?
This season, we'll likely finish with 10 teams and maybe 11 winning 90 games ... and seven to 10 losing 90 games. You don't want to read too much into one season, but it's possible we'll see more seasons like this: Contenders and non-contenders, which makes for a less interesting sport. Back in 2004, only five teams won 90 and six lost 90. That's a healthier sport.
But the draft rules tie into another problem. For the most part, the owners love the new rules and capping the amount teams can spend in the draft. Why give more money to amateurs when you can pocket some of that money instead and buy new leather seats for your private jet? The long-range issue here is obvious: You risk talented athletes choosing other sports as signing bonuses decrease. The new commissioner should find ways to get more athletes playing baseball, rather than potentially pushing them towards a different sport.
5. The schedule
Nobody likes the fact that interleague play is now a constant throughout the season, but that's unavoidable with 15 teams in each league. But the unbalanced schedule creates issues of teams competing for the same thing (a wild-card spot) while playing vastly different schedules.
My own personal pet peeve is that the season drags too long into October. Last year's World Series games in Detroit were played in brutally cold weather. Depending on which teams advance, you're often playing your most important games of the year in your worst weather. The World Series can be as much a test of ability as a test of weather fortitude. There isn't a good solution, unless your shorten the regular season or the playoffs, add some doubleheaders, or -- god forbid -- play some World Series games during the day. The weather in Detroit in the afternoon last October was quite lovely. At night? Not so much.
Hisashi Iwakuma for AL Cy Young Award?
Eric Karabell calls Iwakuma his fantasy MVP among pitchers, but that's factoring in Iwakuma's relatively low average draft position. Eric's also right about this: Max Scherzer will probably win the award easily thanks to his sterling 21-3 record.
But whether Scherzer should be a lock is no longer such a sure thing.
Iwakuma ranks third in the AL in ERA (just behind the 2.64 marks of Bartolo Colon and Anibal Sanchez, both of whom have pitched far fewer innings), second to James Shields in innings pitched, second to Scherzer in opponents' OBP, third to Yu Darvish and Scherzer in batting average allowed and fourth in strikeout/walk ratio behind David Price, Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez.
In terms of Baseball-Reference WAR, however, it's not a two-pitcher race but a three-pitcher one:
Sale: 7.2 WAR (11-13, 2.97 ERA)
Iwakuma: 7.0 WAR (14-6, 2.66 ERA)
Scherzer: 6.7 WAR (21-3, 2.90 ERA)
The raw totals are close: Sale has allowed 77 runs in 209 innings, Iwakuma has allowed 69 in 219 2/3 and Scherzer has allowed 73 in 214 1/3. The statistical edge Sale and Scherzer have over Iwakuma is strikeouts -- 240 for Scherzer, 221 for Sale, 185 for Iwakuma.
(For the record, Iwakuma is rated much lower via FanGraphs WAR, which focuses on strikeouts, walks and home runs as opposed to actual run prevention. Scherzer, however, has pitched slightly worse with runners on base, or at least had worse results, than Iwakuma. For example, Iwakuma has allowed 25 home runs, but 19 have been solo shots. He's allowed a .228 average with the bases empty but .184 with runners in scoring position. Scherzer has allowed a .186 average with the bases empty versus .223 with runners in scoring position.)
One thing I like to look at is starts allowing two runs or fewer. You should win most of those starts; allow three and it's more of a 50-50 proposition; allow four or more, and you rarely win (only three pitchers have won at least four games this year when they allowed four-plus runs and only five, including Scherzer, have won three).
Record when allowing two runs or fewer:
Scherzer: 20 starts, 15-1, four no-decisions, 1.61 ERA
Sale: 14 starts, 9-3, two no-decisions, 0.98 ERA
Iwakuma: 20 starts, 12-1, seven no-decisions, 0.97 ERA
Iwakuma has pitched better than Scherzer in his good starts yet has three fewer wins. In fact, he's had four no-decisions when allowing zero runs. (All three pitchers have had seven starts allowing four runs or more.)
So yes, Scherzer has had better run support. Really, you can dissect this a lot of ways and all three are pretty even. But I suspect if you put Scherzer on the Mariners, we wouldn't be talking about a landslide Cy Young vote.
(For the record, I'd probably go Scherzer, Iwakuma, Sale, Darvish and Hernandez on my five-pitcher ballot. But maybe that's the Mariners fan in me not trying to be biased.)
The Mariners' historically awful defense
At this point, it's pretty obvious: Jack Zduriencek is not Billy Beane. Maybe that's unfair to say; maybe no general manager is Billy Beane. As Dave Cameron pointed out on FanGraphs, even the Rays have spent more on big league payroll than the A's the past two seasons and yet the A's have won 10 more games.
You can argue the A's have been lucky -- nobody expected Josh Donaldson or Brandon Moss to be this good, or Bartolo Colon to resurface as an elite pitcher. But the A's also have a plan; as Joe Sheehan pointed out this week on his podcast, the A's target a certain type of player (Colon being the big -- literally -- exception): Players 25 to 29 years old, the age at which they should either break out or have a career year. Look at the current ages of the players they've added in the past two years: Moss (29), Jed Lowrie (29), Yoenis Cespedes (27), Josh Reddick (26), Chris Young (29), John Jaso (29). OK, Seth Smith is now 30 and closer Grant Balfour is 35. Other than Cespedes, those were all players considered disposable by their former teams. Individually, they don't look that impressive; collectively, they're a team.
Now look at who the Mariners added this offseason: Raul Ibanez (41), Aaron Harang (35), Jason Bay (34), Kelly Shoppach (33), Joe Saunders (32), Mike Morse (31), Kendrys Morales (30). That's not a plan. That's a tragedy.
The A's had options. They had Coco Crisp in center field, but a Gold Glove-caliber defender in Young to back him up. If Josh Reddick's 2012 proved to be a fluke, they still had Young, or Smith or Moss could move to the outfield. Their production from second base and shortstop was horrible last year, so they traded for Lowrie, but he's injury prone so they had other options, either good-glove Eric Sogard or Japanese free agent Hiroyuki Nakajima. At second base, they hoped Scott Sizemore would return but he got hurt again; they still had Sogard plus Jemile Weeks. They acquired Nate Freiman to platoon at first base with Moss, but still had Daric Barton hanging in the minors if they needed another first baseman. With more options, odds are that somebody would work out. Turned out Nakajima wasn't that good and has spent the season in Triple-A but Lowrie remained healthy and Sogard has had a nice season at second.
The Mariners, meanwhile, had no apparent plan but to acquire a bunch of veteran leaders, even if that meant having five DHs on their roster. They were counting on injury-prone Franklin Gutierrez to play center field every day. But what was the backup? Michael Saunders had to play a lot of center last year but wasn't that good out there (-13 Defensive Runs Saved). Plus, moving Saunders to center would mean you would have to use a lot more of Ibanez and Morse in the outfield, two obvious defensive liabilities.
So what happened? This happened. The Worst defenses since Baseball Info Solutions began tracking Defensive Runs Saved in 2003:
1. 2005 Yankees: -115
2. 2005 Royals: -112
3. 2009 Royals: -109
4. 2013 Mariners: -100
5. 2010 Royals: -95
Wishing on a healthy Franklin Gutierrez is not a plan. Signing 35-year-old Endy Chavez is not a plan. Ibanez has started 89 games in left field. Morse started 62 games in the outfield. Bay started 50. Dustin Ackley, who began the season as the starting second baseman, has started 40 games in center field. Shockingly, this didn't work out.
So they ended up with one of the worst defenses in recent major league history. They had no Plan B if things didn't go exactly according to script. Morse and Ibanez combined for -29 Defensive Runs Saved in their part-time duty (and Morse didn't hit either). The various center fielders have combined for -34 DRS. The infield hasn't exactly been the 1970 Orioles.
The Mariners will lose 90-plus games for the sixth time in 10 seasons. They haven't outscored their opponents in a season since 2003. It's been 10 years of mediocre or awful baseball teams in Seattle.
No wonder the Sounders are so popular.
The Mets ran out a lineup with these OBPs on Tuesday: .316, .291, .317., .356, .258, .280, .233, .258. Again, not batting averages, but on-base percentages. Hey, they actually scored five runs but the pitching staff allowed eight and the Giants won 8-5 in a crucial matchup.
Standings:
Team W L Pct. GB
1. Astros 51 100 .338 ---
2. Marlins 55 96 .364 4
3. White Sox 60 91 .397 9
4. Cubs 63 88 .417 12
5. Twins 64 86 .427 13.5
6. Mariners 66 85 .437 15
7. Brewers 67 83 .447 16.5
7. Mets 67 83 .447 16.5
9. Rockies 69 83 .455 17.5
10. Blue Jays 69 81 .460 18.5
11. Giants 70 81 .464 19
12. Padres 70 80 .467 19.5
13. Phillies 71 80 .470 20
Still a crowded race, with just 3.5 games separating the No. 7 teams from the 13th team. Since we last ran the standings last Monday, kudos to the Mariners for creating some space as they've gone 1-7 while being outscored 50 to 18. That's taking tanking to a new level. The Giants went 6-2 and the Padres 5-3 to play themselves out of the top 10. Not a big deal for the Padres, since they don't sign big free agents anyway, but this could be an issue for the Giants if they want to pursue one of the big names who will be out there (not including re-signing Hunter Pence and/or Tim Lincecum). The Phillies, another big-market team, went 5-3. They can't lose right, either.
Sunday's winner: Tough call, but let's give it to the Seattle Mariners for some questionable bullpen usage in the eighth inning. Leading 1-0 against the Rays, right-hander Yoervis Medina came on with Evan Longoria leading off, followed by four lefties. I get using Medina against Longoria as he's sort of established himself as Seattle's eighth-inning guy. Joe Maddon had stacked his lineup with left-handed batters, but had already used Delmon Young and Wil Myers off the bench in the seventh. With Luke Scott, James Loney, Matt Joyce and Kelly Johnson due up, didn't it make sense to bring in Oliver Perez at that point? Sean Rodriguez, Desmond Jennings and Yunel Escobar were on the bench, but I'd rather have Perez facing those guys than Medina against the lefties. Anyway, Scott walked (Jennings pinch-ran), Loney doubled in a run and Perez was finally brought in, and Rodriguez singled in two runs as the Rays avoided the sweep.
(Honorable mention to the Giants for resting both Brandon Belt and Pablo Sandoval, although they beat the Diamondbacks anyway.)
Current standings in the race to 10:
Team W L Pct. GB
1. Astros 47 96 .329 ---
2. Marlins 53 88 .376 7
3. White Sox 57 85 .401 10.5
4. Cubs 60 82 .423 13.5
5. Twins 61 80 .433 15
6. Brewers 62 80 .437 15.5
7. Giants 64 79 .448 17
8. Mets 64 77 .454 18
8. Mariners 65 78 .455 18
10. Padres 65 77 .458 18.5
10. Rockies 66 78 .458 18.5
12. Phillies 66 77 .462 19
13. Blue Jays 67 76 .469 20
14. Angels 67 75 .472 20.5
The Padres, Phillies and Blue Jays all hurt their chances to finish in the top-10 worst records by sweeping their series. The Twins jumped into the top five with their sweep at the hands of Toronto and the Rockies are suddenly right there with their sweep defeat in San Diego. Good job, Roy Oswalt! Key series starting Monday: Rockies at Giants.
Player A: .265/.342/.496, 28 HR, 72 RBI, 132 OPS+
Player B: .283/.352/.468, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 134 OPS+
Player A is Evan Longoria, Player B is Kyle Seager. Longoria does hold the WAR advantage, 5.2 to 4.1, thanks to better defense, but Seager is quietly have another solid season at the plate.
Player A: .271/.359/.448, 22 HR, 117 OPS+, 1.0 WAR
Player B: .260/.370/.446, 17 HR, 131 OPS+, 3.1 WAR
Player A is Prince Fielder, Player B is Carlos Santana. Of course, I left out RBIs, and Fielder has 95 of those compared to 60 for Santana (Fielder has 81 more plate appearances). Has Fielder had a great RBI season? According to Baseball-Reference, the average major leaguer drives in 65 runs in 622 plate appearances, so Fielder is +30. Sounds good. But ... he's also had 98 more runners on base than the average hitter. In WAR, Santana moves ahead thanks to Fielder's poor defense and a positional adjustment for Santana, because he's played a lot behind the plate.
Player A: .233/.291/.448, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 1.5 WAR
Player B: .238/.299/.422, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 1.0 WAR
Player A is Mark Trumbo and Player B is Angels teammate Josh Hamilton. Trumbo has escaped criticism because he has more home runs and RBIs, but he's also another sub-.300 OBP guy in the middle of the Angels' lineup.
Player A: .243/.311/.433, 17 HR, 102 OPS+
Player B: .267/.316/.420, 18 HR, 98 OPS+
Looks pretty close, right? What if I told you one of these guys has 101 RBIs and has been touted as an MVP candidate by some (OK, at least one prominent national broadcaster), and the other guy has 60 RBIs.
Player A is Twins second baseman Brian Dozier and Player B is Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips. In terms of WAR, Dozier has the bigger advantage, 3.8 to 1.7. Look, Phillips is hitting .354 with runners in scoring position. He's also hitting .211 with a .249 OBP with the bases empty; those at-bats count, too. Phillips has made the fourth-most outs in the NL.
Player A: 209 IP, 145 H, 47 BB, 201 SO, 6.6 WAR
Player B: 187.2 IP, 158 H, 40 BB, 199 SO, 6.2 WAR
Pretty similar. Both are left-handed. One stat I left out: Player A has a 1.89 ERA, while Player B's is 2.97. Player A, of course, is Clayton Kershaw while Player B is Chris Sale. How can Sale be close despite an ERA a run higher? A few things. We're talking an NL pitcher versus an AL one, so Kershaw's run-scoring environment is a little lower. Home park: Kershaw pitches in Dodger Stadium, a good park for pitchers, while Sale pitches at The Cell, a hitter's park. Quality of opponents: Kershaw's opponents have averaged 4.20 runs per game compared to 4.51 for Sale's. Defense: Kershaw's is good, Sale's isn't. So why has nobody noticed Sale's season? He's 10-12. Put him on the Tigers and he'd be competing with Max Scherzer for Cy Young Award honors.
Player A: 193 IP, 180 H, 43 BB, 174 SO, 3.50 ERA, 4.1 WAR
Player B: 184 IP, 169 H, 50 BB, 172 SO, 2.98 ERA, 4.0 WAR
Cole Hamels is A, and Mat Latos is B. Of course, Hamels is 6-13 and Latos is 14-5, obscuring the fact that Hamels has been outstanding. Hamels was 1-9 with an ERA approaching 5 through May, and those bad starts (or good starts) stick in our memories. But since July, he's made 12 starts and posted a 2.17 ERA, allowing more than two runs just twice (though he has just four wins). He's still one of the best left-handers in the league.
One more:
Player A: 5-2, 1.48 ERA, 38 saves, 2 blown saves
Player B: 4-2, 2.19 ERA, 41 saves, 6 blown saves
Joe Nathan (A) and Mariano Rivera (B). By the way, Nathan's career save percentage since becoming a closer: 91 percent. Rivera's since becoming a closer: 90 percent, not including the postseason.
Thursday's winner: The Mariners, for not using closer Danny Farquhar in a 13-inning loss to the Royals -- even though he'd only thrown nine pitches so far in September. OK, OK, a bit harsh since most managers refuse to bring in their closer on the road in extra innings until their team takes the lead. Except the Mariners never got the lead, and they lost the game without using their best relief pitcher. Excellent job, Eric Wedge!
Current standings:
Team W L Pct. GB
1. Astros 47 93 .336 ---
2. Marlins 52 86 .377 6
3. White Sox 56 83 .403 9.5
4. Cubs 59 80 .424 12.5
5. Brewers 60 79 .428 13.5
6. Twins 61 77 .442 15
7. Giants 62 78 .443 15
8. Padres 62 77 .446 15.5
9. Phillies 63 77 .450 16
9. Mariners 63 77 .450 16
11. Mets 63 75 .457 17
12. Blue Jays 64 76 .457 18
13. Angels 65 74 .468 19.5
14. Rockies 66 75 .468 19.5
With a light schedule, not much movement, although the Giants moved ahead of the Padres with a 4-2 loss to the Diamondbacks.
Why we'll see tanking in September
Why would a team playing out the string give starts to two washed-up veterans?
It's pretty simple: The Mets have come down with injuries to their rotation and they want to limit Zack Wheeler's innings, so they'll use a six-man rotation in September to space out his starts. Unwilling to use some of the younger pitchers already on the 40-man roster -- who would have their own innings limits -- the Mets dug up whoever they could to fill their holes.
But it's not quite so simple; there's more to it than just protecting Wheeler. The Mets want to lose. Or, at least, I think they want to lose, because there is incentive to lose ... or lose often enough to finish with one of the 10 worst records in baseball.
Remember last winter when the Mets wanted to sign free agent Michael Bourn? And Bourn apparently wanted to play with the Mets? Bourn ended up signing with Cleveland because the Mets held the 11th pick in the first round -- and only the first 10 picks are protected if you sign a free agent who has been given a qualifying offer by his previous team. The Mets decided that signing Bourn and losing the pick wasn't worth it; the Indians, drafting fifth, signed Bourn and Nick Swisher, two free agents tied to qualifying offers.
Basically, by tying draft picks to free agency, MLB is encouraging tanking. No team wants to finish with the 11th- or 12th-worst record and lose that first-round pick if they sign an elite free agent -- which this offseason could include the likes of Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Matt Garza, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Ervin Santana. You don't think the Mets would be interested in a couple of those outfielders?
True, free agency has always been tied to draft picks, but two things happened in the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement. First, it used to be that the top 15 picks were protected when signing the old "Type A" free agent; there is a big difference, however, between the 10th-worst team, which is a team that usually finishes well under .500, and a middle-of-the-pack team, which is usually one on the fringes of the playoff race. This year, for example, the No. 15 team is Washington, currently a game over .500. The second major change was that each team is given a draft budget, based on money allocated for each pick. Finish worse and you get more money to spend on the draft.
That means September baseball will include Matsuzaka and Harang pitching their hearts out to help the Mets. You see, the Mets currently own the 10th-worst record in the majors. They are right on the border of no-man's land, "leading" the Phillies and Blue Jays by just one game. In fact, the race for the 10th spot is going to be nearly as heated as the race for the playoffs. Here are the standings in the race for No. 10 -- starting with the Astros and including how many games behind each team is from the team below them:
Team W L Pct. GB
1. Astros 45 92 .328 ---
2. Marlins 51 85 .375 6.5
3. White Sox 56 80 .412 5
4. Cubs 58 79 .423 1.5
5. Brewers 59 78 .431 1
6. Twins 60 76 .441 1.5
7. Padres 61 76 .445 0.5
7. Giants 61 76 .445 0.5
9. Mariners 62 75 .453 1
10. Mets 62 74 .456 0.5
11. Blue Jays 63 75 .457 1
11. Phillies 63 75 .457 1
13. Rockies 65 74 .468 1.5
14. Angels 64 72 .471 0.5
The Twins, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Blue Jays and Phillies -- sixth-worst to 12th-worst -- are separated by just two games. In the 2013 draft, the Marlins drafted sixth and had a draft budget of $9.5 million. The Mariners drafted 12th and had a budget of $6.1 million. It's going to be a mad, mad scramble to lose just the right amount of games. Not that front offices right on the border will ever admit that.
The final standings are particularly crucial to clubs like the Mets, Phillies, Giants and Mariners, who would be willing to spend the money to dip into the free-agent market to plug holes. Like the Mets, the Mariners are desperate for outfielders. Ellsbury, an Oregon native, would be a perfect fit for their center-field hole; Choo would look great in a corner outfield slot. But the risk of losing that pick if you finish No. 11 has to be weighed.
Look, there's risk in tanking. The Astros tore everything apart a couple of years ago in beginning a complete overhaul of the organization, but how many fans will they lose with years of bad baseball and how many years will it take to win them back? But that's an extreme example. We're really talking only a few wins here -- 74 wins instead of 77. That's not going to have an effect on your fan base or season-ticket sales. (There's an argument that finishing over .500 provides more hope and could lead to more ticket sales over the winter, but right now none of these teams are pushing .500.)
So if you're a Mets fan or Phillies fan or Mariners fan, you have some standings to pay attention to in September. Enjoy the tanking.
So you think you want to be an official scorer? Better try this story on for size first.
Back on Aug. 6, Felix Hernandez started for the Mariners and gave up six runs in five innings, but only three of them were earned. Or at least, only three were earned when the game was scored.
Take a deep breath. This gets complicated.
In the top of the fourth, Toronto’s Adam Lind led off and reached first base safely on third baseman Kyle Seager's error. Colby Rasmus then followed with a ground ball to second that hit Lind. Under major league rules, Lind was called out and Rasmus was awarded a base hit.
Brett Lawrie then hit a grounder between third and short that shortstop Brad Miller backhanded. Miller tried to force Rasmus at second but the throw went into right field, with Rasmus advancing to third. Determining that the throw would not have beat Rasmus anyway (or Lawrie at first), official scorer Eric Radovich ruled it a hit and an error on Miller that allowed Rasmus to advance to third.
Still with me? OK. Let’s move on.

Lawrie then stole second to put runners at second and third. After Josh Thole struck out, Emilio Bonifacio doubled home Rasmus and Lawrie. Jose Reyes then singled home Bonifacio. Reyes was thrown out trying to steal to end the inning.
Don’t relax yet. This is where the fun starts.
Based on rules that determined there should have been three outs before any runs scored, Radovich counted all three runs as unearned. Lind's leadoff grounder/error should have been out one. Thus, the out on Rasmus' grounder would have been out two. And Thole’s strikeout would have ended the inning. Three outs before a run scored, so no runs are earned.
That’s the way it was scored and that’s the way it stood.
For two weeks.
The Elias Sports Bureau, the official statistician for Major League Baseball, saw the scoring differently. Because Rasmus was awarded a hit, Elias said the play could not be counted as what should have been the second out of the inning, and so put the original scoring decision under review. Radovich understands the point of view, but says, “The rulebook is not definitive on how to score these runs in regards to a base runner being hit by a batted ball, as the batter is credited with a hit by rule, although there is also an out made on the play.”
After some debate over how the runs should be scored, Joe Torre -- MLB’s executive vice president of baseball operations -- made the ruling roughly two weeks after the actual play. Torre decided the runs should be earned, thereby raising Hernandez's ERA though the Aug. 6 game from 2.39 (which is where it was after Radovich's initial decision) to 2.55.
But wait. We’re not done.
After the runs were ruled earned, the club informed Hernandez that he could appeal the original scoring decision that Miller's throw to second base, if it had been on target, wouldn't have beaten Rasmus for the out. Hernandez did appeal, and we're still awaiting a verdict. If it is ruled that a good throw would have beaten Rasmus and thus the play was an error all the way, the runs would become unearned again.
And you thought scoring was easy.
Under Bavasi, the Mariners were big, inefficient spenders, owning a payroll that ranged from $80-$118 million from 2003 to 2008 but averaging just 75 wins. In fact, in 2008, the Mariners became the first team to lose 100 games in the same season in which they opened with a $100 million payroll, an ignominious feat to say the least. The hope was that, under Zduriencik, the Mariners would get a little more bang for their buck and fix many of the mistakes that had sent them to the American League West cellar.
This is Zduriencik’s fifth year at the helm, and the Mariners are headed for another sub-.500 finish. In the previous four years, they won an average of 72 games and finished no better than third in the AL West. Most of the moves he has made have either left the Mariners standing right where they started or sent them back a step or two. Many would say that Zduriencik’s signing of free agent Chone Figgins to a four-year, $36 million contract was the biggest mistake of his tenure, but it has been punctuated by meaningless moves, such as trading Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley and signing Jason Bay.
There is no question Zduriencik has fallen well short of the expectations set for him, especially since his first Mariners season saw the club win 85 games. However, Seattle is in a much better spot right now than a year ago, two years ago or when it hired him after the 2008 season. The Mariners are 59-67 and any hope of a late-season playoff push was dashed weeks ago, but their current .468 winning percentage would mark the third consecutive season in which they've improved and their young core is starting to take hold.
This season has seen the debuts of Nick Franklin, Brad Miller and Mike Zunino. They have joined fellow youngsters Justin Smoak, Kyle Seager and Michael Saunders.
Franklin has displaced Dustin Ackley as the team's second baseman of the future, posting a .738 OPS since his recall on May 27. Miller has brought some much-needed lumber to the shortstop position, currently the owner of a .742 OPS while playing half his games in one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. He may not have Brendan Ryan's defensive acumen, but the Mariners are tired of ranking among the league's worst offenses. Zunino, last year's first-round draft pick (third overall), came up in a pinch when the Mariners ran out of catchers. Before breaking his hamate bone, he handled major league pitching well and showed some potential at the plate.

These six position players are the most visible bunch of what could be a young, productive and affordable core for years to come. Manager Eric Wedge, back in the Mariners dugout Friday night after suffering a mild stroke and missing a month, just needs a little bit of good luck on his side and for his GM to plug a few holes for Seattle to be realistic contenders in the American League again:
1. Plan a rotation behind Felix Hernandez. Sure, Hisashi Iwakuma has been great this year, but he is under contract only through 2014 (2015 is a club option) and turns 33 in April. This includes promoting Taijuan Walker at some point during the 2014 season. He has had some minor difficulties adjusting to Triple-A competition this year, which might motivate a midseason call-up.
2. Acquire a surfeit of back-end starters. There are myriad ways to go about this. The Mariners learned a lot about young starters like Brandon Maurer, Erasmo Ramirez and prospect Danny Hultzen this year, and that is: They aren't very reliable. Having five or six guys competing for three spots in spring training is not a bad thing, and as the Dodgers have shown this year, sometimes you'll need them all and then some. Some soon-to-be free agents who fit the bill: Jason Hammel, Bruce Chen, Phil Hughes, Dan Haren and Jeff Karstens. This isn't an exhaustive list and doesn't include pitchers who could be acquired cheaply via trade and those who may be nontendered (such as Kyle Kendrick with the Phillies).
3. Make a run at Jacoby Ellsbury in the offseason. Few teams can say they built a championship contender all alone, and the Mariners don't have a legitimate center fielder. Ellsbury has one important skill that the Mariners lack: speed. Saunders leads the team with 12 stolen bases in 16 attempts; Ellsbury has stolen 46 in 50 attempts. While he likely won't hit 32 home runs again, his speed, defense and gap-to-gap power would be a huge bonus to the lineup. It will be costly, but the Mariners are only committed to Hernandez and Iwakuma on long-term contracts.
4. Don't panic about the bullpen. Relievers are notoriously fickle, and teams that overreact to their bullpen woes usually end up paying for it; just ask the Phillies how the Jonathan Papelbon and Mike Adams signings panned out. The Mariners have a lot of young, live arms in the bullpen, and things just simply haven't worked out well this year, although they may have found a closer in Danny Farquhar. The Mariners bullpen has posted the third-best strikeout rate (24.8 percent) in baseball, trailing only the Reds and Rays. The killer has been the sixth-worst walk rate. Fortunately, control is a fixable issue if the coaching staff recognizes and addresses the issue.
5. Keep Kendrys Morales around. A good designated hitter is hard to find, with switch-hitting ones even rarer. While he hasn't recaptured the power that landed him fifth in AL MVP voting in 2009, he has ranked among the top third of DHs since returning from a broken leg last year. Having a relatively affordable, reliable option at DH for the next two to three years gives the Mariners the luxury of more efficiently focusing their attention on more pressing needs.
Bill Baer runs the Crashburn Alley blog on the Phillies and is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog.
Young talent the best we've had in years
Last week, Joe Posnanski wrote about all the young talent in the majors today and pointed out we could end up with 13 or 14 players in their age 23-or-younger season who could end up with 3.0 WAR or higher. The "record" for this category, according to Posnanski (I assume he was searching on Baseball-Reference.com) was 1978, when 14 players did it. The catch: Joe was writing about position players only.
Topping the list would be Mike Trout, with Manny Machado, Andrelton Simmons, Jean Segura, Freddie Freeman, Puig and Nolan Arenado already above the 3.0 mark. Jason Heyward is at 2.9 and on a hot streak. Eric Hosmer is at 2.7 WAR. That's nine guys who should get there with Anthony Rizzo, Brett Lawrie, Salvador Perez, Jose Iglesias and Bryce Harper between 1.9 and 2.1 WAR. Wil Myers has 1.7 WAR in about two months of play. This list doesn't even include Giancarlo Stanton, still just 23, but having a disappointing season with 1.3 WAR after leading the National League in slugging percentage last season.
So that's a lot of young talent without even talking about the pitchers.
Anyway, Joe didn't mention all the 1978 guys in his piece, so I thought it would be interesting to check out that list and see what happened the rest of their careers. Indulge me as I revisit the players of my youth, when I first started watching baseball and kept baseball cards in shoe boxes, wrapped in rubber bands.
Jack Clark: 5.9 (52.9 career WAR)
Clark finished fifth in the 1978 NL MVP vote and became one of the best hitters of the '80s (sixth in OPS+ for the decade behind Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Pedro Guerrero and Darryl Strawberry). He couldn't stay healthy, however -- during his age 27-to-30 peak years he averaged just 96 games per season. Couldn't keep his mouth shut either. Still can't keep his mouth shut.
Willie Randolph 5.8 (65.6)
Underrated player due to his defense and walks; a borderline Hall of Fame candidate by his career WAR total but fell off the ballot after one year and would appear an unlikely Veterans Committee candidate.
Jason Thompson 5.6 (24.8)
The 23-year-old first baseman for the Tigers hit .287 with 26 home runs and walks and made his second All-Star team. Looked like he'd be a big star for a long time, but it didn't happen. After a slow start in 1980, the Tigers dumped him to the Angels for Al Cowens, and then after hitting .317/.439/.526 the rest of the season for the Angels, he was traded to the Pirates for Ed Ott and Mickey Mahler -- 29-year-old part-time catcher and nobody pitcher. The Pirates were then supposed to trade Thompson to the Yankees -- basically for $500,000 in cash -- but the commissioner vetoed that trade so he was stuck with Pittsburgh. Anyway, not sure why nobody wanted him. Defense? Bad breath? Not sure the story there. Made the All-Star team in 1982 but was done by age 31.
Ellis Valentine 5.5 (16.9)
Hit .289/.330/.489, 25 home runs, 35 doubles, won a Gold Glove thanks to his cannon arm. Part of the young Expos outfield with Andre Dawson and Warren Cromartie. Hit in the face by a pitch on May 30, 1980. They say he was never the same again ... except after returning in July he hit .331 the rest of the season. Injuries and drug and alcohol problems cut his career short after that, although he straightened himself out after his retirement from baseball.
Robin Yount: 5.0 (77.1)
Was just 22, but already in his fifth season in the majors after starting for Milwaukee at age 18. Would of course go on to win two MVP Awards and get elected to the Hall of Fame. Now, looking at his season you probably wouldn't have projected him as a Hall of Famer -- he hit .293 with nine home runs and 147 hits in 123 games. But a 22-year-old with ability can sometimes take a big leap forward and Young did that in 1980.
Chet Lemon 4.9 (55.3)
A superb defender in center, although he never won a Gold Glove Award. He hit .304/.386/.482 with the White Sox from 1978 to 1981, but after a trade to the Tigers for Steve Kemp never hit .300 again, even though he was just 27 at the time of the trade. He ranks eighth among position players in WAR during his 1977-1984 peak. Pretty underrated player.
Andre Dawson 4.7 (64.4)
In his second season, hit .253/.299/.442, but with 25 home runs, 28 steals and good defense. Here's a question: At that moment in time, would you rather have had Dawson or Valentine? Valentine had the better season and both were 23, but Dawson was faster and more athletic. Neither walked much, although Dawson struck out a lot more. I think it would have been a tough call.
Eddie Murray 4.3 (68.2)
Hit .283 with 27 home runs and 70 walks at age 22, good enough to finish eighth in the AL MVP vote.
Lou Whitaker: 3.8 (74.8)
The AL Rookie of the Year in 1978, he's a slam-dunk Hall of Famer if you go strictly by WAR. Hit just 12 home runs his first four seasons but eventually topped 20 four times. Effective enough into his late 30s that even in his final year he posted an .890 OPS in a platoon role with the Tigers.
Terry Puhl: 3.7 (28.4)
He was just 21 and hit .289 for the Astros with 32 steals, a few walks and was solid defensively. Never developed too much beyond that -- hitting home runs in the Astrodome was near impossible in those days anyways -- but he was a prototypical Astros outfielder of that period with good speed and the ability to hit for average.
Lee Mazzilli: 3.3 (15.4)
A pretty good player from 1978 to 1980, when he was the toast of a bad Mets franchise -- hailing from Brooklyn made him even more popular with the Mets' faithful. Hit a big home run in the 1979 All-Star Game. Started suffering back and elbow injuries and was never the same, although the Mets squeezed Ron Darling and Walt Terrell from the Rangers in a steal of a deal.
Steve Kemp: 3.3 (19.5)
Good hitter whose career was eventually derailed by injuries. The 1978 Tigers had Thompson, Whitaker and Kemp, plus 20-year-old Alan Trammell, 22-year-old Lance Parrish and 23-year-old Jack Morris. They won 86 games. It took them only six years from there to win a World Series.
Ozzie Smith 3.2 (76.5)
He hit .258 and swiped 40 bases to finish second in the NL Rookie of the Year vote to Bob Horner (who went straight from Arizona State to the majors). Ozzie's bat stalled for his next three years in San Diego before a trade to St. Louis -- and turf -- helped him become respectable at the plate.
Garry Templeton 3.0 (27.7)
Most career hits through age-24 season since 1970: Yount, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Cesar Cedeno, Edgar Renteria, Roberto Alomar, Miguel Cabrera, Templeton.
So that's the 14. It doesn't even include Trammell (2.8 WAR), Paul Molitor (2.7) or Carney Lansford (2.6).
You still hear a lot that players are rushed to the majors these days. There's no evidence this is actually true. In 1978, there were 21 players who were 23 or younger and batted at least 500 times and 27 who batted at least 300. In 2012, those figures were 14 and 20. In 1978, 28 pitchers 23 or younger reached 100 innings compared to 12 last year. There are reasons for this -- more guys go to college now (1978 was right before the boom in college baseball), some guys are now held back in the minors to save on service time, innings are limited and so on. But it's also because the talent level is a little higher than it was 35 years ago; there's less room for a 21-year-old kid to play regularly these days.
Not all these kids today will turn into stars ... but four of those 14 from 1978 did turn into Hall of Famers.
Alex Rodriguez's power on contact
Remember, isolated power is slugging percentage minus batting average -- it takes singles out of the equation. By removing strikeouts, we're then checking A-Rod's power only when he makes contact.
1996: .330
1997: .236
1998: .303
1999: .384
2000: .372
2001: .383
2002: .402
2003: .380
2004: .289
2005: .376
2006: .307
2007: .417
2008: .351
2009: .314
2010: .290
2011: .235
2012: .210
Well, one thing, if Rodriguez has been using PEDs in recent seasons, they haven't helped. His isn't a Barry Bonds-like career path, that's for sure, but a rather conventional downward arc beginning in his mid-30s. It's interesting to note that Rodriguez's ISO/con didn't really increase all that much from his final two seasons in Seattle after he joined Texas in 2001, when he said he used PEDs -- even though he moved into a better hitter's park in Texas (the Mariners had moved into Safeco midway through the 1999 season).
We can only speculate about the dips and rises. In 2004, he joined the Yankees. Maybe he did stop PEDs, as he claimed, or maybe he just felt more pressure playing in New York ... and fell from 47 home runs and 83 extra-base hits to 36 and 62. He had a big spike in 2007 when he went from 35 home runs to 54. Did he start using PEDs? Make adjustments at the plate? Just have a great year?
We also don't know the typical variance in ISO/con. What's normal and not normal for an elite slugger? Here, let's look at Jim Thome, a guy with 612 home runs and whom everyone believes was clean:
1994: .346
1995: .324
1996: .418
1997: .414
1998: .428
1999: .402
2000: .378
2001: .513
2002: .525
2003: .447
2004: .429
2005: .209 (injured)
2006: .443
2007: .416
2008: .365
2009: .351
2010: .490
2011: .333
Well ... certainly a different arc than A-Rod (and also: Man, did Thome have some serious power or what?). A mammoth peak in 2001 and 2002 (when he was 30 and 31 years old) but otherwise pretty steady until he started getting old. Anyway, this proves nothing, other than Thome had more power than A-Rod, but Thome is also one of the all-time Three True Outcome kings (home run, walk or strikeout), so he's a pretty unique guy to compare to anybody.
You could do this all day with various players -- Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Mike Schmidt, Miguel Cabrera ... Barry Bonds. Bonds would be a fun one. From 1958 to 1960, Mays averaged 31 home runs per year. From 1962 to 1965 he averaged 47. Did he start juicing? Probably not. Players change, conditions change, ballparks change. You can look at the numbers but the numbers don't always us provide an answer.
