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Last week, we went over the early contenders for the National League Cy Young Award. We still have a lot of season left, but there have been a few pitchers who have already separated themselves from the pack in the American League. Shockingly, only two players who received votes in last year's AL Cy Young balloting made the top five on my list through two and a half months. In fact, none of last year's top three -- David Price, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver -- made it.

Hisashi Iwakuma (7-1, 1.79 ERA, 95.1 IP, 64 H, 87 SO, 14 BB)
Iwakuma nudges out Clay Buchholz for No. 1 on my list for two reasons: He has made two more starts (and tossed 11 more innings) and has better defense-independent numbers, which make him a slightly better candidate going forward. Iwakuma has the second-best ERA at 1.79 and the best strikeout-to-walk ratio at 6.21. He is one of five starters across baseball with a walk rate below 4 percent. The only question with Iwakuma is if he can maintain a low BABIP, as he's currently at .222. As most pitchers tend to hover around .290 to .300, Iwakuma would have to have some abnormal batted-ball ability (such as Matt Cain’s ability to generate infield pop-ups) or play behind an elite defense to maintain it.

Clay Buchholz (9-0, 1.71 ERA, 84.1 IP, 57 H, 29 BB, 81 SO)
Buchholz is a perfect 9-0 and has baseball's best ERA at 1.71. By traditional measures, he's the no-brainer favorite right now, but we will dig a bit deeper. The one factor that has led to Buchholz's success most has been his ability to limit home runs. Over his career, one out of every 10 fly balls Buchholz allowed has left the yard, a normal rate. This year, though, it is only 3 percent despite inducing fly balls at the same rate. Last season, Gio Gonzalez had the lowest HR/FB rate among all starters at 5.8 percent.

Buchholz also has walked batters at more than twice the rate of Iwakuma, 9 percent to 4 percent. Both strike out hitters at the same rate, so Buchholz, simply, is allowing more baserunners. He is clearly a much better pitcher than he has been in the past (he increased his strikeout rate by about 50 percent), but he is just a shade behind Iwakuma thus far.

Anibal Sanchez (6-5, 2.65 ERA, 78 IP, 66 H, 19 BB, 98 SO)
Only two pitchers in baseball have tossed at least two games with a game score of 88 or better: NL Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright (89, 91) and Sanchez (88, 94). Sanchez's first was a 17-strikeout outing against the Braves on April 26, a start that officially put him on the map. The second was a no-hit bid May 24 against the Twins, broken up by Joe Mauer's one-out single up the middle in the ninth inning.

Sanchez, acquired by the Tigers last July from the Marlins and then re-signed as a free agent in the offseason, is a markedly better pitcher now, at the age of 29. His strikeout rate is a terrific 31 percent, the second-best rate among all starters. His previous career-high was 24 percent. He is also walking 6 percent of hitters faced, 2 percent below his career average. Like Buchholz, he has limited home runs at 5 percent of fly balls. Even if that rate regresses back to the mean, though, Sanchez should still be among the league leaders in ERA, which should pull in some of the more traditional-minded voters.

As with Buchholz, who has missed some time with a sore neck, keep an eye out for Sanchez's health. He missed his last start with shoulder stiffness.

Yu Darvish (7-2, 2.64 ERA, 95.1 IP, 61 H, 29 BB, 127 SO)
Darvish is the only pitcher this year to have at least five starts with at least 10 strikeouts. To say he has been impressive would be an understatement. Darvish has made improvements in his defense-independent metrics, increasing his strikeout rate over last year by 7 percent and cutting his walk rate by 3 percent.

Perhaps most stunning, he is on pace to strike out 267 batters over 200 innings. If he gets there, it would be the most strikeouts since Verlander's 269 in 2009, and he would be one of only four pitchers (Verlander, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia) to cross the 250-strikeout barrier since 2005. Strikeouts have been on the rise since 2005 (6.3 per game to 7.6), but innings pitched by starters have been on the decline. Darvish's array of pitches has turned him into the game's premier strikeout pitcher.

Compared to the other candidates, Darvish has actually been hurt by home runs, allowing nine in 88 innings. Despite that, he still has a 2.75 ERA, which ranks sixth in the AL.

Felix Hernandez (7-4, 2.49 ERA, 97.2 IP, 83 H, 19 BB, 102 SO)
We are looking at arguably the best King Felix we have seen to date. His 2.49 ERA ranks third in the AL, but he has bumped his strikeout rate to a career-high (27 percent) and his walk rate to a career-low (5 percent), giving him the third-best K/BB in the league, behind teammate Iwakuma and Doug Fister. Hernandez has done all of this while eating a ton of innings -- his 97.2 innings pitched is second-best in the league behind James Shields' 100. Hernandez had tossed at least 230 innings in each of the previous four seasons, so this is nothing new for him.

That Hernandez is only No. 5 on this list and that he may not be the favorite going forward should not diminish the tremendous improvement in his effectiveness this year. At just 27 years old, he will have plenty more opportunities to add a second Cy Young Award to his mantle as he stakes his claim as one of his generation's best arms.

Bill Baer writes about the Phillies at Crashburn Alley and is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog.

Another fun and interesting chat session included some heated debates on Mike Trout's defense, Manny Machado's WAR versus Miguel Cabrera's, whether the Rangers are worse than the four best teams in the AL East, the hype over Yasiel Puig, Jason Heyward versus Freddie Freeman, Jose Iglesias versus Andrelton Simmons and when the Cubs will make it back to the playoffs. Here's the complete chat wrap.

We did this All-Star exercise for the National League on Sunday night, so let's do the same thing for the American League: A month out from the All-Star Game, how does the roster potentially shape up?

In choosing the 34-man roster, I go with the fan balloting results for the position players and fill out the roster from there. In reality, the players vote for nine positional backups in the AL (including DH) and the first eight pitchers (five starters and three relievers) -- meaning the AL manager really has only eight spots to fill (and one of those is actually the final man vote on the Internet), from which he must fulfill the requirement of at least one All-Star per club. For the purpose of this review, I pretend the player vote doesn't exist. (All stats entering Monday's games.)

Catcher
Fans: 1. Joe Mauer; 2. Matt Wieters; 3. Carlos Santana.

Should start: Mauer.
Automatic: None.

Mauer is the clear choice here based on his .332/.414/.498 batting line. Or is he? He's started only 37 of his 56 games at catcher. Trouble is, who else gets the nod? Santana has the next-best hitting numbers, but he has started 21 games at first base or DH. Matt Wieters has an OBP about .300. The other candidate is Jason Castro of the Astros, and I have a feeling we may need the backup spot for him. We'll get the backup catcher later.

First base
Fans: 1. Chris Davis; 2. Prince Fielder; 3. Mike Napoli.

Should start: Davis.
Automatic: Fielder.

Davis' .333/.411/.684 line and league-leading 20 home runs should earn him the All-Star start even if he slows down between now and early July. Based on the WAR leaderboards, Fielder has plenty of competition for the backup job, but Fielder is a star and is once again putting up his usual strong numbers at the plate.

Second base
Fans: 1. Robinson Cano; 2. Dustin Pedroia; 3. Ian Kinsler.

Should start: Pedroia.
Automatic: Cano.

I can see the argument for Cano as the starter; he has been the superior player the past couple of years. But it's not really that close right now with Pedroia posting a .383 wOBA and Cano at .357. Heading into Monday night, Baseball-Reference rates Pedroia as the most valuable position player in the AL, while FanGraphs as him as sixth-best.

Third base
Fans: 1. Miguel Cabrera; 2. Manny Machado; 3. Adrian Beltre.

Should start: Cabrera.
Automatic: Evan Longoria, Beltre, Machado.

Now we're going to run into some problems; there are too many great third basemen in the AL right now. Cabrera, Longoria and Machado rank 1-4-5 in FanGraphs WAR and 2-7-3 in Baseball-Reference WAR. Then there's Josh Donaldson, who ranks seventh on FanGraphs and fourth on B-R. Beltre hasn't quite matched those guys, but he's a top-20 player on both lists and is an established star on one of the best teams in the league. For now, Donaldson gets squeezed out.

Shortstop
Fans: 1. J.J. Hardy; 2. Elvis Andrus; 3. Jhonny Peralta.

Should start: Hardy.
Automatic: Peralta.

Not a good year for AL shorstops with Andrus not hitting, Asdrubal Cabrera not playing up to his usual standards and Derek Jeter injured. Hardy and Peralta are clearly the top guys -- flip them if you want -- with Hardy potentially on his way to winning another Gold Glove while leading AL shortstops with 13 home runs and 39 RBIs. Peralta is better than usually given credit for on defense and he's hitting .339, although that is fueled by an unsustainable .418 average on balls in play.

Outfield
Fans: 1. Adam Jones; 2. Mike Trout; 3. Torii Hunter; 4. Nick Markakis; 5. Jose Bautista; 6. Nelson Cruz.

Should start: Trout, Jones, ???.
Automatic: None.

Once you get past Trout and Jones it's difficult find an obvious third starter in an uninspiring group of AL outfielders. Hunter is hitting .300, but without much else to go with it. Heck, Jason Bay has matched him in WAR, so it's hard to argue Hunter's inclusion on the team at all. Hunter probably won't hang on to his top-three spot, but for now he's a starter. Backup candidates includes Brett Gardner and Coco Crisp, both in the top-five in WAR on both sites thanks to their all-around games and improved production at the plate; Bautista; Alex Gordon, a superb player and Gold Glove winner the past two years; Alex Rios, the one White Sox player who is hitting; Daniel Nava, who ranked fifth in the AL in on-base percentage and is tied for third among outfielders with 40 RBIs; and Mark Trumbo. I'd throw in Yoenis Cespedes in the mix as well, despite his inconsistent start.

I'm going to add as my reserves Gardner, Crisp and Gordon (in part because I know I'll need a Royals rep and he's the best candidate). Not exactly a trio that screams "All-Star Game," is it?

Designated hitter
Fans: 1. David Ortiz; 2. Lance Berkman; 3. Mark Reynolds.

Should start: Ortiz.
Automatic: None.

Now to the most ridiculous aspect of the All-Star Game: The AL is forced to include two designated hitters on its roster, even though most teams don't even employ a full-time DH anymore. Reynolds has ended up playing mostly in the field (only 13 games at DH) and while he has 13 home runs and 41 RBIs, he hasn't done much after a hot April. Kendrys Morales has hit pretty well for Seattle but the last thing we need is another Mariner on this All-Star team. Berkman is a nice sentimental choice but not quite All-Star worthy.

So let's go with Edwin Encarnacion, who has 17 home runs and 51 RBIs. Though he has mostly played first base, he is listed on the ballot as a DH. Plus, we need a Blue Jays rep.

Starting pitchers
Starter: Felix Hernandez.
Automatics: Clay Buchholz, Yu Darvish, Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Hisashi Iwakuma, Max Scherzer.

Yes, Buchholz is 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA, so why Felix as the starter? Let us list the reasons: Better strikeout rate, better walk rate, 13 more innings pitched, longer track record of dominance, succeeding even though Mike Morse and Raul Ibanez are playing regularly on "defense" in the outfield.

As for the other starters, Verlander's ERA is a little high at 3.71, but his peripherals are still excellent and he's still Justin Verlander. Iwakuma is 6-1 with a 1.81 ERA, has the lowest OBP allowed of any major league starter and has the best ERA among AL starters since he joined the Seattle rotation in July; in other words, he's legit. Scherzer is 8-0 with 100 Ks and just 20 walks in 83.1 innings; he should be making his first All-Star trip and deservedly so.

Relief pitchers
Automatics: Mariano Rivera.

OK, the rules say the players will vote in three relievers. I see Rivera as the only automatic; I'll add Joe Nathan and Grant Balfour, both with ERAs of less than 2.00 and just one blown save (by Nathan) between them. White Sox setup man Jesse Crain has been terrific with just two runs allowed in 29 innings, but I its hard to find room for a middle reliever with so many good starting pitchers these days.

* * * *

OK, we're at 29 players, so we have five spots to fill. We need a backup catcher plus reps from the Astros and Indians. For the Astros, I'm adding Castro over Jose Altuve; that squeezes out Santana, so I'll add starter Justin Masterson to represent the Indians. We're still two pitches short of our minimum allotment of 13 and the first guy to add is Anibal Sanchez, although he did miss his last start with a stiff shoulder. He's 6-5 but is fourth in the AL with a 2.65 ERA and has 98 strikeouts in 78 innings. Derek Holland has been terrific and so has James Shields despite his 2-6 record, and Bartolo Colon would be a fun choice. Matt Moore pitched himself out of a spot with his recent poor efforts, so I'll guy with an old standby: CC Sabathia.

That leaves one spot left. Josh Donaldson, I just found room for you.

So here's how the 34-man AL roster looks in early June -- or, at least, my AL roster (* starters, via fan balloting):

C Joe Mauer, Twins*
C Jason Castro, Astros
1B Chris Davis, Orioles*
1B Prince Fielder, Tigers
2B Robinson Cano, Yankees*
2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
3B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers*
3B Evan Longoria, Rays
3B Manny Machado, Orioles
3B Adrian Beltre, Rangers
3B Josh Donaldson, A's
SS J.J. Hardy, Orioles*
SS Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
OF Mike Trout, Angels*
OF Adam Jones, Orioles*
OF Torii Hunter, Tigers*
OF Brett Gardner, Yankees
OF Coco Crisp, A's
OF Alex Gordon, Royals
DH David Ortiz, Red Sox*
DH Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays

SP Felix Hernandez, Mariners*
SP Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
SP Yu Darvish, Rangers
SP Justin Verlander, Tigers
SP Max Scherzer, Tigers
SP Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
SP Chris Sale, White Sox
SP Anibal Sanchez, Tigers
SP Justin Masterson, Indians
SP CC Sabathia, Yankees
RP Mariano Rivera, Yankees
RP Joe Nathan, Rangers
RP Grant Balfour, A's

Now, there's no way five third basemen make it (although the AL did have five shortstops in 2002 with Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada and Omar Vizquel), so you'll probably see a seventh outfielder or a third catcher (especially since Castro won't finish in the top two in the player voting). If I had to guess, that will probably be Wieters or maybe Santana, who tore it up in April and the player vote usually seems predicated on who had the best April. So if Castro makes it as a third catcher, that bumps one of the third basemen.

And who knows what they'll do in the outfield; Crisp and Gardner aren't going to win the fan vote and are unlikely to finish high enough in the player vote, so the reserves outfielders could be, say, Bautista, Cespedes and Rios.

1965: Reds draft Johnny Bench
Back in the first draft, it was still possible to dig up a relatively unknown kid from rural Oklahoma. Bench wasn't selected until the second round -- the 36th player overall -- and seven other catchers went ahead of him. Jim McLaughlin, the Reds' farm director in 1965, in Kevin Kerrane's classic book on scouting, "Dollar Sign on the Muscle":

A friend of mine with another club said, "You better send someone down to Binger, Oklahoma, to look at this kid Bench. We're not gonna draft him because the general manager's seen another he likes up in New England." ... They took that New England catcher on the first round, and the kid never got above Double A. And we took Bench on the second round. It was kind of a poker game. Nobody else knew much about him; his team hadn't played many games, and our scout was usually the only one there, so we could wait. After the draft Bill DeWitt, my boss, said, "I've never heard of him." I said, "I know you haven't, but you will. And that's why you hired me -- to hear about kids like this one."

Does McLaughlin's story check out? Sort of. There was no catcher from New England drafted in the first round, but the Orioles did take a catcher from Dartmouth in the second round -- one pick ahead of Bench. As to the claim that nobody else knew about Bench, at least one other team saw him: the Dodgers drafted a high school teammate of Bench's in the seventh round, but passed twice on selecting Bench.

1966: Reggie Jackson falls into A's lap
In one of the more famous draft blunders, the Mets' had the No. 1 pick and passed on Arizona State outfielder Jackson to select a high school catcher named Steve Chilcott, who would battle injuries and never reach the majors. "It was a position pick," said Joe McDonald, a Mets executive at the time. "We did not feel we had an adequate catching prospect in the organization."

1966: Braves draft Tom Seaver
The Braves? Yep. Atlanta selected Seaver in the now non-existent January secondary phase of the draft (for players who had previously been drafted). Seaver, pitching at USC, had been drafted the previous June by the Dodgers, but didn't sign after the Dodgers turned down his $70,000 asking price. The Braves took him with the 20th pick of the January phase, setting off a weird chain of events. The Braves signed Seaver for $40,000, but commissioner Spike Eckert ruled Seaver was ineligible to sign because USC had already played two exhibition games (Seaver didn't pitch). But the NCAA then declared Seaver ineligible, because he had signed a pro contract. So Eckert ruled that any team willing to match the Braves' offer would enter a lottery. The Mets, Phillies and Indians matched, and the Mets won the lottery.

1971: George Brett and Mike Schmidt drafted back-to-back
Pretty cool that arguably the two greatest third basemen in history were drafted the same year with consecutive picks. The catch: They went in the second round, Brett and then Schmidt. The Royals' first-round pick was a pitcher named Roy Branch, who briefly reached the majors but never won a game; the Phillies' pick was Roy Thomas, who had a marginal eight-year career as a reliever, although never pitched in the majors for the Phillies.

1976: Trammell and Morris ... and Ozzie (sort of)
In 1976, the Tigers had one of the great drafts ever, selecting Steve Kemp in the January phase and then Alan Trammell (second round), Dan Petry (fourth round), and Jack Morris (fifth round). Trammell and Morris aren't in the Hall of Fame yet, but both could get there someday. No team has ever drafted (and signed) two future Hall of Famers in the same draft. The kicker: They also drafted Ozzie Smith in the seventh round, but he didn't sign, and the Padres selected him the following year.

1987: Mariners draft Ken Griffey Jr.
The Mariners owned the first overall pick, and penurious Mariners owner George Argyros wanted the club to draft college pitcher Mike Harkey, because he would be easier to sign and presumably quicker to reach the majors. Scouting director Roger Jongewaard won out in the end. (Harkey went fourth overall, to the Cubs.)

1988: Dodgers draft Mike Piazza ... in 62nd round
Maybe the most famous late-round pick, Piazza was the Dodgers' final pick that year -- the 1,390th pick overall out of 1,395.

1990: Braves land Chipper Jones
Hard-throwing high school right-hander Todd Van Poppel was the consensus top talent in the 1990 draft -- "the best pitching prospect ever" label had been slapped on him -- but his declaration that he didn't want to sign and instead attend the University of Texas scared teams off him. So the Braves took Jones, which worked out pretty well for them.

2000: Cardinals draft Yadier Molina
The 2000 draft as one of the worst ever -- after top pick Adrian Gonzalez (by the Marlins), the rest of the top 15 were Adam Johnson, Luis Montanez, Mike Stodolka, Justin Wayne, Rocco Baldelli, Matt Harrington, Matt Wheatland, Mark Phillips, Joe Torres, Dave Krynzel, Joe Borchard, Shaun Boyd, Beau Hale and Chase Utley (OK, finally one that panned out). Keep that list in mind when you get excited about your team's first-round pick this year. The only other first-round of note that year was Adam Wainwright (by the Braves). He would eventually get traded to St. Louis, where he would team with a young catcher from Puerto Rico also drafted in 2000.

2009: Nationals draft Stephen Strasburg
The story here is how the Mariners kicked away the No. 1 overall selection. The Nationals headed into the final weekend with a record of 59-99, having gone 3-11 over their previous 14 games. The Mariners were 58-101 and had lost 14 of 15. This was tanking at its best. All the Mariners had to do was lose one game to lock up the first pick. One loss. Easy, right? Instead the Mariners sweep the A's. The Nationals lose all three. Josh Outman's throwing error sets up Yuniesky Betancourt's two-run go-ahead in triple in the fifth inning of the season finale. In other words, if Outman doesn't throw the ball away, Strasburg might be in a Mariners uniform instead of a Nationals one. (With the second pick, the Mariners selected Dustin Ackley.)

The game survives. It always survives.

A routine Wednesday afternoon game on a gorgeous June day in Seattle between two teams rapidly going nowhere can slog along for 13 uneventful innings -- so uneventful that it was 0-0 heading to the 14th, with nary a hit with runners in scoring position.

Then the White Sox score five runs in the top of the 14th. Mariners fans began filing out into the concourses of Safeco Field. The Mariners score a run and load the bases with two out. White Sox closer Addison Reed has Kyle Seager in a 1-2 hole when Seager dramatically turns the routine into the remarkable, hitting a game-tying grand slam out to right-center.

The game heads to the 15th inning and the camera pans to fans heading back to their seats.

This is what baseball does to us. For 24 hours, the talk had been about Ryan Braun and Alex Rodriguez and Biogenesis instead of Yasiel Puig and Domonic Brown. Instead of discussing scores, everyone was discussing suspensions. And then Kyle Seager hits a grand slam and the fans return.

Maybe Bud Selig cares more about penalizing players who used performance-enhancing drugs than publicizing up-and-coming stars. Maybe he cares more about increasing owner profits than creating a playoff system that makes sense. Maybe he cares more about limiting bonuses to amateur players instead of trying to attract the best athletes to his sport.

There are many problems with the business of baseball.

There are not problems with the game. We do go back.

* * * *The White Sox won 7-5 in 16 innings, snapping an eight-game losing streak. It's probably fair to say that they needed this one. Reed blew the five-run lead but, out of pitchers, manager Robin Ventura left Reed in to go three innings, which these days is like asking your closer to climb Mount Everest without oxygen and carrying Pablo Sandoval on his back.

Needless to say, the game contained a few "first-evers" and other oddities. Seager became the first player in major league history to hit a game-tying grand slam in extra innings. It was the first time both teams scored 5-plus runs in extra innings after the game had been 0-0 through nine. The 12 total runs in extra innings tied an American League record. (All nuggets courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.) Mariners catcher Kelly Shoppach became the 13th player since 2010 to strike out five times in a game -- although the only one to also register two hits. Mariners manager Eric Wedge didn't use a single position player off his bench. The White Sox turned six double plays.

But the game also exposed the weaknesses of these two clubs. If they don't hit home runs, they don't score. The five runs the White Sox scored in the 14th were more than they had scored in any game during their eight-game losing streak, a stretch in which they hit .197 with one home run and a .486 OPS. With a 25-32 record, the White Sox appear to be a dysfunctional unit, hoping unproductive veterans Adam Dunn (.162 average, .261 OBP) and Paul Konerko (.233 average, .296 OBP) find a fountain of youth, with no youth to build a lineup around. The entire offense is a wreck outside of Alex Rios, last in the AL in runs, average, walks, OBP and 13th in home runs. The White Sox are likely going to be sellers at the deadline, but outside of Rios and Chris Sale (who isn't going anywhere) there aren't many assets here of much value.

The Mariners hit Endy Chavez and Jason Bay 1-2 on Wednesday, which also tells you the state of a team that's in Year 5 of general manager Jack Zduriencik's attempt to clean up the mess left behind by the Bill Bavasi. The Mariners are 26-34, and that's with two of the best starters in the league. Hisashi Iwakuma was terrific once again, pitching eight scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 1.94. He's 6-1 in 13 starts but has allowed more than three runs just once; with a little run support he could easily have 10 wins.

I don't know if this was the game of the year, but I'm pretty sure it will end up on the short list. For 5 hours and 42 minutes, two bad baseball teams gave us baseball to talk about.

Thank goodness for that.

 
When it comes to this year's rookies, as fans I think we sort of came into this season like the kid at Christmas the year after you got the bike and the pony, or the new car and the Red Ryder BB gun. Because, let’s face it, the year after Mike Trout and Bryce Harper arrived on the scene had to be something of a letdown, right?

Turns out, not so much, at least not in the National League. The difference is that this year the kids are all right on the mound. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been one of the few bright spots on a Dodgers team desperate for something worth bragging about beyond its price tag. But the Cardinals’ Shelby Miller just got his ERA down to 1.82, almost a full run lower than Ryu’s, while catching the Korean southpaw in the win column for at least a day, what with Ryu set to take the mound Sunday.

It’s a showdown between a pair of outstanding candidates who press many of the hot-button issues about Rookie of the Year voting every season. Some fans -- and perhaps more than a few voters -- might favor the future value they anticipate when they see Miller. Some might have qualms about voting for a foreign leagues veteran, MLB-rookie status or no. But as long as Miller keeps pitching like a man who belongs with teammate Adam Wainwright in the conversation on who the best pitcher in the league might be, two months into the season it’s Miller’s race to win -- if he pitches all year.

That said, it is a long season, and as the Nationals' decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg in 2012 reflected, pitchers might be excused for factors that have nothing to do with performance.

Happily, the NL field for first-year talent is wider than that tandem, even as Miller and Ryu contend for headlines. Just from among the hurlers, Jose Fernandez might have to labor in relative obscurity with the Marlins, marooned in the depths of a new-park hangover that has many Miami fans and voters asking themselves the coyote-ugly question about their franchise a year or two too late. But that has nothing to do with Fernandez’s talent, on full display as he mowed down Mets on Saturday. Like Miller, he’s striking out more than a man per inning, good enough to put him in the top 10 among NL starters in K/9. If it weren’t for Ryu and Miller, even in the spring of Matt Harvey, we’d be talking about Fernandez a lot more. So you can imagine how Julio Teheran, doing well as a rotation regular on a first-place Braves team, feels.

This year, you can really only say one NL rookie position player is generating anything like the same buzz. Atlanta's Evan Gattis deserves the love he’s getting, not for the backstory but for the production. This is not Chris Coste 2.0 -- not that a guy like Coste wasn’t as easy to root for as Gattis, but when you’re slugging north of .600 two months into the season, you’re not a passing fancy, you’re somebody hitting so well that demoting an eight-figure salary becomes something more than merely speculative.

Gattis is doing for position players what Miller and Ryu have done for the pitchers in terms of sucking all the oxygen out of the room. As a result, Jedd Gyorko of the Padres might not merit more than a courtesy mention now, but I wouldn’t count him out over the next four months. Gyorko has the power to slug .450 or better despite having to call Petco Park home as a rookie; if he cranks 60 extra-base hits while helping the Padres finish around .500, that’s an amazing season.

You could say much the same for the pair of rookies starting up the middle for the Diamondbacks. However overmuch attention has been given to Kirk Gibson’s clubhouse makeover or the likely big-picture penalties for trading away Justin Upton, the work Arizona is getting from Didi Gregorius at shortstop (and A.J. Pollock in center field) has helped propel the Snakes to first place in the NL West. As easy as it might be to say Gregorius has been helped by the D-backs’ bandbox ballpark, three of his four homers have come on the road. If he starts slugging at home, too, how do you count out a slick-fielding shortstop with power on a first-place team?

Even with their delayed call-ups, by this time last year Trout and Harper had already been strutting their stuff. Trout was putting up an .887 OPS for an Angels lineup that needed all the help it could get overcoming Albert Pujols’ slow start. Harper was hitting .274/.357/.504 in a little more than a month. They might not have been brought up until the end of April, but you already knew we were in for something special. But this year’s class? Its players might not compare directly, but they’re doing more than enough to pay attention to, now and down the stretch.

The American League, on the other hand ... well, you have to give the Rangers some unexpected due. I don’t know if anyone really expects Justin Grimm or Nick Tepesch to still be in this conversation at the end of June, let alone September, but their contributions have clearly helped keep the Rangers' riding to the league’s best record. But Conor Gillaspie? Yan Gomes? That they're among the top WAR-generating rookies in the AL so far just means that nobody has shown enough, for long enough, with the expectation that he’ll still have a job at the All-Star break. I wouldn’t rule out Nick Franklin or Jurickson Profar in partial seasons. I also wouldn’t rule out that the eventual AL Rookie of the Year hasn’t been called up yet. Or possibly even drafted yet -- who said Christmas comes just once per year?

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

The Baltimore Orioles have played 54 games and Manny Machado has played in all 54. The amazing Machado fact, however, isn't that he hasn't missed a game but that he's hit 25 doubles -- he hit another one Thursday night, a grounder down the third-base line. That puts him on pace for 75; the all-time record was set by the not-legendary Earl Webb for the Red Sox in 1931.

We can get carried away with early season "on pace" totals -- Jason Grilli is on pace for 66 saves! Patrick Corbin is on pace to go 24-0! -- but Machado's pace is pretty fun, in part because it seems possible, however slim, that he could challenge Webb's record. Machado's Orioles teammate Brian Roberts hit 56 just four years ago, proving you can hit a lot of doubles in Camden Yards and it's easy to jump to the conclusion that Machado could hit 11 more doubles than Roberts.

Still, the odds are he won't do it. Just last year Joey Votto had 22 doubles through the Reds' first 54 games, which put him on a pace for 66. He got hurt but had fallen off by then anyway. Roberts had only 16 through 54 games in 2009. Craig Biggio had a couple seasons where it appeared he could make a run at 67 -- he had 38 doubles in 87 games at the All-Star break in 1999 and 35 in 87 games in 1994. He finished with 56 in '99 and the strike hit in '94, but he'd fallen off pace by then. Lyle Overbay had 37 at the break in 2004 (finished with 53) and John Olerud had 37 in 1993 (finished with 54). Todd Helton hit 59 in 2000, the highest total since 1936, but was never on serious Webb pace.

The guy who appeared most likely to chase down Webb was Edgar Martinez in 1996. Through the Mariners' first 54 games -- Martinez played in all of them -- he had 29 doubles. At the All-Star break he had played in all 85 of Seattle's games and belted out 42 doubles, which put him on pace for 80 (!). Even if he slowed down just a bit it appeared that he would do it. ESPN.com started running an Edgar Martinez Doubles Watch (hey, we were based in Seattle then).

Then, on July 20, Lou Piniella had the brilliant idea to start Martinez at third base for the first time that season. He collided with catcher John Marzano on a foul pop up and bruised his ribs, landing on the disabled list and ending a streak of 293 consecutive games played. Martinez missed 22 games. Upon returning he wasn't the same hitter, batting .309 but with just eight doubles in 44 games. He finished with 52 in 139 games.

Machado has one huge advantage over Martinez -- he can run, so has the ability to stretch singles into doubles that may generate a few extra two-baggers. Besides that, he has another advantage: He doesn't walk much. Martinez had 123 walks that year but Machado has just 12 so far, so he's putting a lot more balls in play.

Also, he has power but not too much power (yet), as with five home runs he's on pace for 15. That matches the Roberts mold as he had 16 home runs in '09. Plus, pitchers are still trying to figure out the best way to get Machado out. He's hit nine doubles off fastballs and those are the ones he lines into the gaps -- seven of the nine to left- and right-center. He yanks "soft" stuff down the line. Only five of his 25 doubles have been groundballs, meaning he's hitting line drives or deep flies for most of his two-base hits.

Odds are that Machado falls short, of course, that pitchers find a small hole in his swing or learn to take advantage of his aggressiveness. Still, this has become one of the intriguing little sub-stories of 2013, the breakout performance of another young star. Can he do it? What do you think?

No, I'm not writing about Dustin Ackley again because I'm a Mariners fan. I'm writing about him because he was the second overall pick in the 2009 draft and got sent down to the minors over the weekend, the exclamation point on his quick demise from promising rookie in 2011 to .205-hitting replacement-level second baseman in 2013.

Actually, I'll save myself the pain and link to Dave Cameron's take over at the U.S.S. Mariner blog, including his reference to Mariners manager Eric Wedge's quote that blamed Ackley's struggles on sabermetrics. No, really. Here's what he said: "It's the new generation. It's all this sabermetrics stuff, for lack of a better term, you know what I mean? People who haven't played since they were 9 years old think they have it figured out. It gets in these kids' heads."

Read Dave's piece as he breaks down Wedge's quote with the lethal result of a Felix Hernandez changeup. He wraps up by saying that Wedge will probably be fired soon, which is probably true:

Everyone knows that the only people capable of offering any kind of intelligent analysis of baseball players are those who have Major League experience. You know, like Eric Wedge. That's what's made him such a successful Major League manager, with his career record of 725 wins and 784 losses. And, you know, clearly Wedge knows how to develop young talent, since he helped all those young players turn into superstars in Cleveland.

Oh, wait, Cleveland’s young players didn't develop as well as they were expected, and Wedge has had two winning seasons in 10 years as a big league manager. Hmm. Maybe experience isn't the only thing that matters after all?

Eric Wedge is going to be fired in the not too distant future. That move, in and of itself, won't turn around the Mariners franchise. But it won't hurt.

There's another piece on the U.S.S. Mariner site by Jeff Sullivan which compares Ackley to another former Mariner who was supposed to hit, Jeremy Reed. This points to the larger issue within the Mariners organization going back more than 10 years and three different front-office regimes: The complete inability to develop hitters (Kyle Seager, who was never a top prospect, being the exception).

Actually, they've developed three other real good ones in the past decade. Trouble is, they traded away Adam Jones, Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera. But the list of Mariners position players besides Jones and Choo once rated in Baseball America's top 100 prospects is a sad list:

• Dustin Ackley: Second overall pick in the 2009 draft. Was Baseball America's 11th and then 12th-best prospect. Truth is, he didn't tear apart the minor leagues (.280), but did draw more walks than strikeouts, and his decent rookie performance (.273/.348/.417) suggested he'd develop into a decent hitter. Definitely the most difficult one here to explain.
• Justin Smoak: No. 13 prospect in 2010. His 24 home runs in 702 minor league at-bats suggests his power potential was always overrated anyway. Maybe remaking himself as well ... he's drawing walks now but a .698 OPS from a first baseman isn't exactly middle-of-the-order material.
• Jesus Montero: Minor league numbers were impressive for his age, but the fact that he hit worse his second year in Triple-A was probably a bad sign in retrospect. Remember, this guy was BA's No. 4, No. 3 and No. 6 prospect three years running based on his sure thing as a hitter.
• Michael Saunders: A May 13 headline in the Seattle Times reads, "Michael Saunders has gone from flop to force at the plate." Since then he's hit .109 (5-for-46) and is down to .217 with a sub-.300 OBP. Was BA's No. 30 prospect heading into 2010. He now has over 1,300 major league PAs and owns a career .219/.283/.366 line. I thought he had a breakthrough last year but now all bets are off.
• Carlos Triunfel: BA's No. 62 prospect after debuting in the States at age 17. Remained in the top 100 the next year. Power never developed, undoubtedly aided by his poor plate discipline (35 SO, 7 BB in Triple-A this year).
• Adam Moore: No. 83 before 2010, his minor league numbers were good, not great, but he was a catcher. Hit .195 as a rookie. Then came a bunch of injuries.
• Jeff Clement: Drafted third overall in the loaded 2005 draft, peaked at No. 33 on the BA prospect lists. Just a misfire. A costly one.
• Jose Lopez: Peaked as Baseball America's No. 38 prospect and reached the majors at age 20 and even made the All-Star team his first full season. But his willingness to swing at pretty much anything (never walked 30 times in a season) ruined his career.
• Jeremy Reed: Acquired from the White Sox in the Freddy Garcia trade, he had hit .373 with 70 walks and 36 strikeouts in 2003 between A and Double-A. But a .289 average in Triple-A in 2004, the year the Mariners acquired him, suggests a guy who was probably overrated as the No. 25 prospect.
• Chris Snelling: Three-time top-100 prospect, as high as No. 39. Couldn't stay healthy. The one guy here who I'm convinced would have hit.

How does this happen? How can one organization fail so miserably? Certainly, there's been a system-wide failure -- again, through different regimes and thus different major and minor league coaches and instructors -- to develop hitters with the ability to control the strike zone. Is that just bad luck? Bad coaching? Bad Safeco Field karma?

I don't really know. A friend of mine posits that the Mariners continually emphasize how much pressure they're under in the major leagues, instead of just letting them hit instead of talking about their struggles all the time. Maybe bad hitting and bad approaches just feed off itself like the Ebola virus. Losing is a disease, right?

There is no answer here other than that there is no magic wand you can wave, no secret sauce, no hitting coach that can flip the switch. The new guys are arriving -- Nick Franklin is here to replace Ackley and Mike Zunino will be up soon.

They better be good.

We talked some baseball. We talked Paul Goldschmidt versus Joey Votto. The record paces of Miguel Cabrera and Manny Machado. What's wrong with the B.J. Upton and Matt Kemp and what the Braves and Dodgers should do. We talked about the defense of Mike Trout and Shin-Soo Choo, disappointing prospects, Pete Kozma, Joe Mauer's RBI production, Oscar Taveras and Jurickson Profar, and much more! Click here for the complete chat wrap.

The 2013 MLB draft is coming up, with the first round set for June 6, and when each team makes its first-round selection, each will be drafting an amateur player it believes will turn into an All-Star.

In reality, front offices know the odds of drafting an All-Star player are actually pretty slim. With research help from Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Information, here's the last time each American League team drafted a future All-Star -- although in a couple of cases that player made an All-Star team for a different franchise. We'll cover the National League on Wednesday.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters (2007)
Many considered Wieters the best player in the draft, but he fell to the fifth pick because of his agent, Scott Boras. The Rays ended up with David Price with the first pick, and the Royals, Cubs and Pirates saved a little money and ended up with Mike Moustakas, Josh Vitters and Daniel Moskos.

Boston Red Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz (2005)
The Red Sox got Ellsbury with the 23rd pick and Buchholz with the 42nd pick. The Red Sox actually had five first-round picks that year including supplemental picks -- the Ellsbury pick was acquired from the Angels for losing Orlando Cabrera -- and also drafted Craig Hansen, Jed Lowrie and Michael Bowden.

New York Yankees: David Robertson (2006)
The Yankees buy their All-Stars, cry the haters. Well, the haters are right! Robinson Cano came up through the farm system, but other than reliever Robertson, the only players to make an All-Star team in pinstripes since 1990 who were actually drafted by the Yankees were ... yep, Derek Jeter (first round, 1992), Andy Pettitte (22nd round, 1990) and Jorge Posada (24th round, 1990). Oh, plus Phil Hughes, who did make the All-Star team in 2010. But you remembered that.

Tampa Bay Rays: David Price (2007)
For all the praise given to the Rays' drafting acumen, they've had the No. 1 overall pick four times and have busted on three of those -- Josh Hamilton (who never played for Tampa Bay), Delmon Young (at least they traded him before everyone realized he stunk) and Tim Beckham, who followed Price in 2008 and has yet to reach the majors.

Toronto Blue Jays: Ricky Romero (2005)
Romero has suddenly lost the ability to throw strikes, which seems especially painful now because 2005 was one of the most loaded drafts in history -- Romero went sixth overall, one pick before Troy Tulowitzki.

Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale (2010)
Many teams didn't believe Sale would have the durability to make it as a starter, but not only did Sale ascend quickly to the majors but he developed into one of the best pitchers in the game. Six pitchers were selected ahead of Sale, and although one was Matt Harvey and another was Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon, the other four were Drew Pomeranz, Barret Loux, Karsten Whitson and Deck McGuire.

Cleveland Indians: CC Sabathia (1998)
It has been an amazing 15 years since the Indians have drafted an All-Star. Since Sabathia was last an Indians All-Star in 2007, Cleveland's All-Stars have included Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore (acquired from Montreal in the Bartolo Colon trade), Victor Martinez (a farm system product from Venezuela), Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez (signed out of the Dominican Republic) and, the past two years, Chris Perez and Asdrubal Cabrera, acquired from the Cardinals and Mariners.

Detroit Tigers: Alex Avila (2008)
A fifth-round pick out of Alabama, Avila was an All-Star just three years later. However, his 2012 and 2013 follow-up seasons haven't come close to his 2011 season, when he finished 12th in the MVP vote.

Kansas City Royals: Aaron Crow (2009)
Crow made the All-Star team as a rookie reliever in 2011 thanks to 34 good innings. By the way, the Royals haven't had two All-Stars since 2003, when Mike Sweeney and Mike MacDougal made it -- also the last time the Royals finished with a winning record. Is this a bad time for a Ken Harvey joke?

Minnesota Twins: Evan Meek (2002)
Joe Mauer was drafted first overall in 2001 and since then has been a draft spell as cold as a Minnesota winter. That's how you go from six division titles in nine years to back-to-back seasons of 99 and 96 losses. That's also the price you pay when you spend a decade never drafting higher than 14th. Meek was actually released by the Twins before making the All-Star team as the Pirates' rep in 2010.

Houston Astros: Ben Zobrist and Hunter Pence (2004)
Zobrist was a sixth-round pick from Dallas Baptist but the Astros traded him for Aubrey Huff before he reached the majors. What, you don't remember the Aubrey Huff Astros years, either?

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout (2009)
The last time the Angels signed a former All-Star to a megamillion free-agent contract: 2013.

Oakland Athletics: Andrew Bailey (2006)
The A's had only one All-Star last year -- reliever Ryan Cook -- but even then it was a gerrymandered roster that Billy Beane put together. Of the 11 players who compiled 2.0 WAR or better, the only one the A's drafted was A.J. Griffin.

Seattle Mariners: Adam Jones (2003)
Jones is a two-time All-Star with the Orioles, making J.J. Putz (1999) the last All-Star for the Mariners who made the All-Star team as a Mariner. And the last position player? Alex Rodriguez, 2000 All-Star, 1993 draftee.

Texas Rangers: Ian Kinsler (2003)
This might come as a surprise, given the Rangers' success in recent years and the praise given their farm system, but their All-Star reps have actually represented some great trades the team made (Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison) and some key free agents (Adrian Beltre, Yu Darvish, Joe Nathan).

This whole closer thing is a tough business. Perfection isn't just expected; it's demanded. Slip up once and it's a headline; slip up twice and fans are ready to trade you to Topeka. Slip up three times and your manager usually starts questioning your intestinal fortitude. As the late, great Dan Quisenberry once said, "A manager uses a relief pitcher like a six-shooter: He fires until it's empty then takes the gun and throws it at the villain."

The trouble with closers, and the decisions managers have to make when they start to struggle: When do you know if the chamber is empty?

Three playoff contenders suffered wrenching defeats this weekend when their closers blew multirun leads. Blown saves in one-run games are bad enough; blowing leads of two or three runs is generally unacceptable. The victims, or saboteurs if you prefer: Jim Johnson of the Baltimore Orioles, Chris Perez of the Cleveland Indians, and Fernando Rodney of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Here's what happened:

• The Orioles led the Blue Jays 5-2 on Sunday entering the bottom of the ninth, but Edwin Encarnacion doubled, Adam Lind grounded a single up the middle and J.P. Arencibia lined a base hit to right. A fly out, walk and fielder's choice made it 5-4 with runners at the corners and two outs. Light-hitting Munenori Kawasaki was at the plate. Johnson threw Kawasaki six consecutive fastballs -- six of his signature mid-90s sinker -- but the sixth one didn't sink much. The pitch hung out over the middle of the plate, and Kawasaki lined it into left center for a game-winning two-run double. The Orioles lost just one game last season they led heading into the ninth inning; they already have five such defeats in 2013. Johnson has lost three of those, and he has two other defeats, as well.
• The Indians also led 5-2 entering the bottom of the ninth, ready to salvage a split of a four-game series at Fenway Park. Dustin Pedroia walked to lead off, and, as you can probably guess, bad things happen when you walk the leadoff batter with a three-run lead. David Ortiz doubled. A groundout scored a run, Ortiz stole third and then another groundout made it 5-4. But now the bases were empty and Perez had two outs. He walked Jonny Gomes, who is hitting .200 without a homer against right-handed pitchers; Stephen Drew lined a base hit to right; and Perez walked light-hitting Jose Iglesias. Terry Francona had finally had enough and brought in Joe Smith to face Jacoby Ellsbury, who won it with a double to left center. It was the first game Cleveland lost entering the ninth inning and just the second loss for the bullpen, but Perez has been shaky of late. Last week, he blew a two-run lead in the ninth to Seattle only to get the win, and two days later, he gave up the go-ahead run in the ninth only to be rescued again as Cleveland won in extra innings. That's seven runs his past three outings.
• Rodney blew his fifth save on Saturday night, a 3-1 lead against the Yankees, who won in 11 innings. The Rays have now lost three games they led entering the ninth (and five they led entering the eighth). Last season, when Rodney allowed just nine runs all season and the entire pen was stellar, those figures were two and three.

So that's the play-by-play of disaster. That all three are struggling isn't necessarily a big surprise. Their Proven Closer labels were a little dubious entering the season, especially for Johnson and Rodney, who each had just one full season as a closer under the belt. In fact, it's time we take the magic out of the whole "closer mystique" nonsense that everybody likes to pretend exists. The fact that guys like Jason Grilli of the Pirates and Edward Mujica of the Cardinals are doing just fine is another indication that closers are often lucked into, not made.

There are few great ones -- Mariano Rivera, of course, and Craig Kimbrel (although even he has three blown saves) -- but the truth is that for most of these guys there's a slender margin between invincibility and Tom Niedenfuer. That's exactly what we're seeing with Johnson, Rodney and Perez this season.

Johnson is a pitch-to-contact closer whom sabermetric analysts predicted would be hard-pressed to match his big 2012 campaign when he saved 51 games. His strikeout rate is up, but that's because he's throwing more pitches up in the zone; a sinker up in the zone is a bad pitch. Last season, Johnson's ground ball rate was 62 percent; this season, it's 42 percent. Thus, he's getting hit more.

Perez was an All-Star the past two seasons, but his 3.45 ERA during that span is hardly elite material for a closer. He's always been a guy who lives on the edge, a decent reliever who got the ninth-inning role. His heat map shows a lot more pitches up in the zone this season, as well -- he's already allowed five doubles, four home runs and 10 walks in 16⅔ innings.

Rodney's implosion is probably the least surprising of the three. From 2007 to 2011, his ERA was more than 4.00 each season. Last season, he suddenly developed the perfect feel for his changeup to go along with fastball command, and batters hit .071 off it with 55 Ks and five walks. This season, the fastball command hasn't been there, and neither has the dominance on the changeup. He's already walked 18 batters (including 10 on changeups) after walking 15 all of last season. After giving up four extra-base hits in 2012, that total is already at nine. In other words, instead of getting Dennis Eckersley in his prime, the Rays are back to getting Fernando Rodney.

The managers of these clubs have some difficult decisions. Because all three have the Proven Closer label, how many chances do they get? And just shuffling them into the eighth-inning role and promoting the setup guy to closer doesn't necessarily solve anything; they can blow games just as easily in the eighth as in the ninth. Orioles manager Buck Showalter has the best options, as relievers Tommy Hunter, Darren O'Day and Brian Matusz have all pitched well.

"We should be getting on the plane with three wins here, but I can't hang my head too long," Johnson said after the game. "It's going to hurt for a little bit, and it should."

For now, it appears Johnson will keep his job despite four blown saves in his past five appearances. But no matter what happens the rest of the season, the ninth inning has already been a disaster for the Orioles. Last season, the average team lost 3.7 games it lead heading into the ninth. As mentioned, that's already five such defeats for the O's this season. And each one has hurt a little bit.

REST OF THE WEEKEND

Three stars

1. Anibal Sanchez, Tigers. Sanchez lost his no-hit bid on Friday when Joe Mauer singled with one out in the ninth. After Detroit acquired Sanchez from the Marlins last season, his strong performance in the playoffs led the Tigers to sign him to an $80 million contract that seemed a little ambitious considering his 3.65 career ERA and the fact that he'd never pitched 200 innings in a season. So far, however, Sanchez has been much better than a midrotation starter, as he's increased his strikeout rate from 20.4 percent a season ago to 30.6 percent now. While he's getting more strikeouts with all four of his pitches, the biggest increase has been with his fastball, which had a strikeout rate of 13.8 percent on plate appearances ending with the pitch in 2012 but 28 percent this season. The command of his fastball -- especially on the outside corner to righties -- has made his other pitches even more effective.

2. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals. For a guy who is "struggling," Strasburg has looked pretty good of late. He allowed just one run in eight innings against the Phillies on Sunday. In his past three starts, he's allowed four runs and just 13 hits in 23 innings. He's recorded 39 groundouts and 15 fly outs over those three starts. He's still seeking his first double-digit strikeout game of the season but still has 71 Ks in 72⅓ innings. While his ERA of 2.49 is a little misleading -- he's allowed nine unearned runs -- his recent outings should alleviate the minor concerns about his early performance.

3. Pete Kozma, Cardinals. How to beat Clayton Kershaw? The Cardinals shortstop went 4-for-4 on Sunday with three doubles; three of those hits came off Kershaw, including a three-run double and rally-starting two-base hit, as the Cardinals won 5-3.

Clutch performance of the weekend
Of our many walk-off heroes, how about Chris Young of the A's? The A's trailed the Astros 5-3 on Friday. Jose Veras walked John Jaso and Coco Crisp on 3-2 pitches, setting the stage for Young with two outs. Young did this on a 1-1 curveball. The A's are now five games over .500 -- thanks in large part to a 9-0 record against the Astros, who they've outscored 68 to 31. Hey, if they go 19-0 against the Astros, it's going to be hard to deny them another trip to the playoffs.

Best game
The Giants fell behind 4-0 to the Rockies on Saturday but chipped away and tied the game in the seventh. Manager Bruce Bochy got ejected in the eighth when Marco Scutaro was thrown out at third base, and the Giants escaped a two-on, nobody-out jam in the ninth. Troy Tulowitzki homered off a Sergio Romo slider in the 10th. But then, after the usually steady Rafael Betancourt walked Brandon Crawford, Angel Pagan lofted a deep fly to right center that kicked off the wall … and, well, Pagan ran 360 feet around the bases, helped a bit by a lazy relay throw from Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler.

Hitter on the rise: Matt Dominguez, Astros
When the Astros acquired Dominguez last season from the Marlins for Carlos Lee, everyone knew he had a major league caliber glove at third base. After going homerless in his first 33 games, doubts began increasing about his bat. Dominguez, however, has now popped seven homers in his past 13 games. His season line still needs some work, especially in the on-base department (.279), but he's starting to look like a positive in this dismal Astros season.

Pitcher on the rise: Jason Vargas, Angels
Don't look now, but the Angels have won eight in a row and are a respectable 23-27. Did they start too late, just like last season? Vargas is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in May, allowing nine runs in five starts. The Angels' next 10 games are against the Dodgers, Astros and Cubs. If they're a couple games over .500 at the end of those 10 games, they'll be back in the wild-card race.

Team on the rise: White Sox
Besides the Angels and Pirates (last week's team on the rise), the hottest club is the White Sox. We keep wanting to count out the South Siders, but, somehow, they find a way to hang in there. They don't score much, but they've won nine of 12 the old-fashioned way: with starting pitching. The starters have a 3.25 ERA over those 12 games, and that despite ace Chris Sale missing his last start with mild tendinitis in his shoulder. He's scheduled to start Tuesday against the Cubs.

Team on the fall: Mariners
They pulled out an extra-inning victory over the Rangers on Sunday, but that ended an eight-game losing streak. Starters not named Hernandez or Iwakuma have combined for a 6.78 ERA, which essentially means three-fifths of the Seattle rotation is below replacement level. The Jesus Montero catching experiment was finally, mercifully, brought to an end as he was demoted to Triple-A to see if he can rediscover the supposed hitting prowess that once made him a top-10 prospect (and play some first base). Dustin Ackley continues to be awful and Michael Saunders is three for his past 37. Things are so bad that Mariners fans are excited about Justin Smoak and his .698 OPS.

One reader called it "epic." I don't know about that, but it was a two-and-a-half hour marathon chat session

Major league baseball is so deep in quality starting pitching that you could probably make the case for nine or 10 different combinations as the best pair going right now. Here are my top five:

1. Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
This may surprise you, but Hernandez and Iwakuma have the highest WAR (wins above replacement) of any pair of pitchers in the majors. And before we write off Iwakuma's outstanding start to the season as a fluke, here are the American League ERA leaders going back to last July 1, when Iwakuma joined the Mariners' rotation:

Iwakuma: 2.54
Hernandez: 2.69
Justin Verlander: 2.77
James Shields: 2.86
Hiroki Kuroda: 2.97

So the M's have Hernandez, one of the best pitchers in baseball, a guy who has pitched 230-plus innings the past four seasons and who has been as effective as any starter in the game for nearly a year. And they have Iwakuma, who will give up some home runs, but he's walked only 11 batters in 10 starts and his splitter has turned into a wipeout pitch -- batters are hitting .184 off it with one home run, 35 strikeouts and two walks in 79 plate appearances ending with the pitch. If the Mariners fall out of the wild-card race, maybe they'll look to trade Iwakuma while his stock is high, but I fear that would be a mistake and they would be making a Doug Fister-like trade that backfires. Iwakuma is for real.

2. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez, Tigers
The Tigers' rotation is so good that you could also slot Fister or Max Scherzer here and have an equally terrific duo. I still like Scherzer as the club's No. 2 as the season progresses, but Sanchez has been terrific so far and has ramped up his strikeout rate to new highs, up more than 9 percent from last season (68 in 55.1 innings). His ERA is 2.77, and while his home run rate is probably unsustainable (just two allowed), his BABIP is too high on the other end at .356. Moving forward, those two results should cancel each other out as they normalize and Sanchez should remain outstanding.

3. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, Dodgers
Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game right now -- he's gone 22 consecutive starts allowing three earned runs or fewer, the longest such streak since Pedro Martinez had 23 in 1999-2000 -- and Greinke would be the ace of many teams. Now that Greinke is back from his broken collarbone, we'll see if everyone has written off the Dodgers too quickly.

4. CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees
Somehow, Kuroda still flies under the radar despite playing in New York. He's not flashy, but batters are hitting .201 AVG/.254 OBP/.292 SLG against him. There's some luck going on here since his .229 BABIP will probably rise, but his slider has been untouchable: opponents are 8-for-61 (.131) against it without an extra-base hit. Meanwhile, Sabathia has lost some velocity off his fastball, but he pitches down in the zone more, throws strikes and keeps the Yankees in games. Since his pitch counts have run high at times he's averaging only 6.5 innings per start, so maybe his days as a 230-inning workhorse are over (he missed a few starts last year, remember, and pitched just 200 innings). Remember as well that these guys have to pitch half their games at Yankee Stadium, where routine fly balls can land in the right-field stands.

5. Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Yes, young guns Shelby Miller and Matt Harvey have seemingly pushed Strasburg out of the limelight, but he's still pretty good and still throws hard (best average fastball velocity among starting pitchers). Nonetheless, he's been surpassed by Zimmermann as the club's ace. Zimmerman doesn't rack up the huge strikeout totals so the advanced metrics like FIP and xFIP suggest his ERA will rise (well, it will, since it's at 1.62 right now). But he throws strikes with Maddux-like precision (nine walks in nine starts) and while there were concerns heading into the season about his ability to go deep into games, his efficiency has allowed him to toss three complete games without throwing more than 107 pitches. He's 7-2 and could be 9-0 -- in the two games he lost, he allowed two runs.

That's my top five, and I couldn't find room for Adam Wainwright and Miller, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, Chris Sale and Jake Peavy, Matt Moore and David Price, Matt Harvey and anybody. It's a pitcher's game right now, that's for sure.

This is one of those stretches that makes you happy to be a baseball fan. Or a baseball fan in Cleveland, at least. If you're a baseball fan in Seattle you may be starting to look ahead to football season.

The Indians just completed a four-game sweep of the Mariners, with three wins coming in walk-off fashion, two of those in extra innings, and the fourth win a 6-0 shutout over Felix Hernandez.

Monday's win featured a game-tying rally in the bottom of the ninth, and then after Justin Smoak homered in the 10th for Seattle, a walk-off, three-run homer from Yan Gomes, his second of the game. The tying run scored in the ninth when Mariners closer Tom Wilhelmsen dropped a throw at first base with two outs. In the 10th, the Indians were playing for a tie when Drew Stubbs sacrificed with nobody out, but Smoak's throwing error put two on with nobody out. Gomes followed with his blast to left off a 3-2 fastball from Charlie Furbush.

But it wasn't just Seattle's errors that created this latest bit of magic for Cleveland, now 18-4 since April 28 and 27-18 overall. The rally in the ninth included an infield single by Jason Kipnis on a 3-1 pitch that Robert Andino fielded and short-hopped Smoak, who should have made the scoop, and then a Nick Swisher blooper to right, just out of the reach of Andino. Home-plate ump Laz Diaz, who was terrible all game, had also missed a 2-1 pitch to Kipnis, which changed the structure of that at-bat. Michael Brantley began the 10th with another blooper to right just beyond Andino.

Hit 'em where they ain't.

So, good luck, good fortune and timely hitting. A pretty good combo.

Of course, the Indians have been here before. They were 33-20 on June 1 in 2011, five games up, and were still in first place as late as July 18. Last year's club was 26-18 in May and held first place on June 23 before collapsing to a 24-53 record in the second half.

But I think this is a better team, with a deeper lineup and, so far, better starting pitching. It's still early, but things are looking bright in Cleveland.

Four of the AL East teams will be facing off head-to-head this mid-May weekend, with the Tampa Bay Rays traveling to Baltimore and the mighty Vernon Wells-led New York Yankees hosting the last-place-but-hot Toronto Blue Jays. The other team is the Boston Red Sox, hoping to gain ground playing the Minnesota Twins after an exciting win against Tampa Bay on Thursday night. This is the lone division in which four of five teams are at .500 or better, so which team is on the hot seat? It's the team that isn't .500, Toronto. The Jays have won four in a row, making Yankee Stadium a very interesting place this weekend, especially when initialed Cy Young winners R.A. Dickey and CC Sabathia face off Sunday afternoon!

Here are some other things to keep an eye on:

1. Best of the rest: With Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish having opened the Detroit Tigers-Texas Rangers series Thursday night by allowing a combined 12 runs (eight by Verlander), the pitching should improve as the Tigers will throw Anibal Sanchez and Doug Fister out there, and they're thriving with a composite 2.54 ERA and two home runs allowed in more than 100 innings. The Rangers can't match that, but keep an eye on the Sunday night ESPN matchup when lefty Derek Holland faces Fister. The big two of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are hitless in eight at-bats against Holland, while Fister has been torched by David Murphy for four home runs in 18 at-bats.

2. Who's back? The Tigers might think the division is simply theirs to lose, but Terry Francona's Cleveland Indians continue to score many runs and get good enough pitching to have won 14 of 18 games. The Seattle Mariners come to the Lake and will first get to see if right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez is really back. I'm skeptical. OK, so that's not accurate: I don't believe it. Jimenez and his new, consistent mechanics have looked good the past three outings, having permitted three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. The strikeout rate looks nice, too. I still want to see more. Felix Hernandez is scheduled to start Sunday after leaving his Yankee Stadium outing this week prematurely with back spasms. If the M's lose him, well, forget it.

3. Hello, Coors! Likewise, the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies opened their four-game set Thursday night with aces on the hill and many runs scored, and the bloated ERA of the defending champions isn't likely to look any better after a thin-air weekend in Denver. With Ryan Vogelsong struggling and perhaps soon to be replaced, many eyes will be on inconsistent Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito, scheduled to start Saturday and Sunday. Each hurler has been all or nothing this season; in 16 combined starts split evenly, 10 of them have featured two or fewer runs. The other outings have been considerably worse. The Rockies sure do hit at home, so watch out.

4. Hey, hey, hey! The first-place Atlanta Braves could get right fielder Jason Heyward back from the DL as soon as Friday for their series opener with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and they expect him to hit considerably better than his current .121 batting average. Of course, their outfielder problems don't end there. The Braves have been using either catcher Evan Gattis in left field or a Jordan Schafer/Reed Johnson platoon, but Heyward is an obvious upgrade. As for the Brothers Upton, B.J. is hitting .145. That's not a misprint. MVP candidate Justin is hitting .156 over his past nine home games. The Braves could fall out of first place with a bad weekend.

5. Tony Be Good: Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani is scheduled to start in Philadelphia on Friday night, and no matter what the hotshot rookie does he could be headed back to the minor leagues. The team's ace right-hander Johnny Cueto is to come off the disabled list Monday, and manager Dusty Baker has already given the vote of confidence to right-hander Mike Leake, who held the powerful Miami Marlins offense scoreless this week. Sorry, Tony, your 2-0 record with a 2.89 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 28 innings is impressive, but hope you kept that apartment in Louisville. There's just no room in the rotation, so enjoy Friday night.

Have a great weekend!