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The Reds received a game-changing grand slam in the sixth inning to take a 5-2 lead against the Braves on Thursday night, leading to their sixth consecutive victory and their first sweep of the Braves since 1980. It wasn’t superstar Joey Votto who provided the knockout punch, nor was it mainstays Brandon Phillips or Jay Bruce. The home run came off the bat of one of the Reds’ many unheralded young players: 23-year-old rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco.

The blast also marked Cincinnati’s 10th home run of the series, leading to 14 of its 16 runs in the series. Winning with home runs is nothing new for this Reds squad, not at Great American Ball Park and certainly not in the Joey Votto era. But Votto didn’t hit a single homer in the series. Neither did Bruce. Phillips hit two. Instead of the three stalwarts on this Reds squad, it was the supporting cast leading the way: Mesoraco (1), Drew Stubbs (3), Zack Cozart (2), Todd Frazier (1) and Mike Leake (1).

Leake’s homer backed up a quality start on Monday, and the other home runs backed up quality starts from Mat Latos (Tuesday), Bronson Arroyo (Wednesday) and Homer Bailey (Thursday). The Reds saw scoreless outings from five different relievers and saves converted by three. To accomplish this in any series is excellent; to do so against the second-highest-scoring team in the league in one of the best hitters’ parks in all of baseball is another.

Depth and pitching have set this year’s Reds squad apart from last year’s version, a preseason favorite for the National League Central crown that was eventually lapped by both the Brewers and Cardinals. The 2011 season saw a 156 OPS+ from Votto and 119 OPS+ marks from both Phillips and Bruce. No other full-time starters came close; only part-time players Chris Heisey (113), Ramon Hernandez (113) and Miguel Cairo (101) even mustered an above average mark.

This season has seen the likes of Paul Janish, Edgar Renteria and Jonny Gomes excised in favor of Cozart (.727 OPS) and Frazier (.887). It has seen Stubbs come to life after three horrible series to open the year -- he owns a .266/.324/.430 line since April 17 to go with his typical fantastic defense. It’s seen Ryan Hanigan pick up his game as well, with a .794 OPS in 27 games as the starting catcher.

Johnny Cueto owns a phenomenal 2.22 ERA over 33 starts dating back to May 2011, but it was the other four Cincinnati starters who held down the Braves this week. Latos started out cold, but has a 2.35 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 23 innings in May. Arroyo has a 121 ERA+ after allowing a near-record 46 home runs last season, owning an absurd 44-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 58.2 innings. Bailey and Leake have had their rough spots, but they fit well in the back of the Reds’ rotation -- a tough job with half of their starts coming in the bandbox in Cincinnati.

The bullpen has established itself as one of the league’s best. Regardless of what one thinks Aroldis Chapman’s role should be, it is undeniable that he is the league’s best reliever. In the four-game sweep of the Braves, he pitched two more scoreless innings. Chapman fronts a bullpen full of talented pitchers: Jose Arredondo, Logan Ondrusek and Alfredo Simon all own ERA+ marks of 137 or higher. Sean Marshall shouldn’t be counted out either despite a rough start -- he was one of the best relievers in baseball over the past two seasons.

The Reds currently sit atop the NL Central, with a half-game lead over the Cardinals. As usual, Votto, Phillips, Cueto and Bruce lead the way. But if the Reds maintain their current success and carry it through to a playoff run, it will be because this year they didn’t have to do it all themselves.

As if Phillies fans didn't have reason enough to be exasperated with the way the first month-plus of action has gone for their club, over on Crashburn Alley, Bill Baer has come up with a visual presentation of how Jonathan Papelbon has basically gone underutilized in the Phillies' bullpen, sitting by unused as key in-game situations get handed to just about everybody else associated with the organization, Philly Phanatic-inclusive. If you're looking for a great example for how the obsession with accumulating saves instead of saving leads can pervert reliever pitcher usage patterns, Bill's given you one here. Be ready for a vigorous discussion on the points, but be ready: Bill knows his stuff, especially where the Phillies (and their dissatisfactions) are concerned. Check it out!

Facing baseball’s top team in their ballpark Friday night, the Tampa Bay Rays brought home run power at the plate and strikeouts on the mound to put away the Texas Rangers, 8-4. This marked the sixth consecutive win for the Rays, who have seemingly righted themselves after sputtering to a 4-5 record to start the season.

The Rays have managed to go 9-2 since then, mainly due to a potent offense that is fourth in the American League in runs scored. Evan Longoria has hit like an MVP candidate, currently sporting a .319/.437/.569 line with four home runs, including a three-run shot Friday. Desmond Jennings owns a nine-game hitting streak, during which he's hit .324, and B.J. Upton has come off the disabled list with a vengeance with a .788 OPS.

Newly acquired bats Carlos Pena and Luke Scott have made Rays fans forget the short, though productive, stints in Tampa Bay of Johnny Damon and Casey Kotchman. Pena and Scott have already combined for nine home runs, more than one-third of the amount that Damon and Kotchman produced all of last year. For reference, the Rays have played 12.3 percent of their games so far, so it looks like these one-year deals on the heels of letting Damon and Kotchman walk could provide excess value.

Interestingly, the Rays are not utilizing the stolen base as the catalyst to their offensive production. Last season the Rays finished second in the majors in stolen bases, marking the first time since 2007 that they did not lead the league in the category. Entering last night, the Rays ranked 16th with 12 total steals. The Rays do have stolen-base threats in Jennings and Upton, but the Rays have been generating offense in a different manner than they are accustomed to -- with power.

The Rays have hit 27 home runs this year, tied for fourth in the majors. Longoria, Pena, Scott, and Matt Joyce have hit at least four long balls apiece. Behind them, Jennings and Ben Zobrist have three each. Those hitters comprise the Rays' 1-5 hitters against right-handed pitchers, as Joyce sits against southpaws. The impressive patience and power displayed by the Rays has been evident over their current win streak in that they have hit at least one home run in each of the past five games.

In addition to their offense, which was on display against Rangers lefty Matt Harrison on Friday night, the Rays have gotten a lift from their pitching over their past 10 games. Allowing just 2.9 runs per game has been a huge part of their 8-2 record over that span. Their run prevention has not all been pitching, however, as their defensive shifts have also proven to be effective. Adam Berry of MLB.com has a great article on the Rays and their shifts, along with the index cards they pull out for each hitter. The Rays currently rank second in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved with 19, nine more than the third-place Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Rays pride themselves on taking as many small advantages as possible, which is a testament to the quality of their front office, scouting and management. Signing players like Scott to a $6 million, one-year deal and moving starter Wade Davis to a bullpen role rather than trading him, are just two decisions that appear to be solid. Davis currently has a 1.86 ERA along with eight strikeouts and two walks in 9.2 innings out of the bullpen and was able to get out of a bases-loaded jam unscathed in the eighth inning of Friday’s victory.

The Rays will have to pitch better overall, specifically in the bullpen, over the course of the season. With the type of talent they possess and their excellent defense, their over-4.00 ERA should continue to decrease. With their offense scoring plenty of runs, improved pitching may make them the best team in baseball. But for now, that designation belongs to the team that is in the opposite dugout this weekend: the Rangers.

Ben Duronio writes about the Braves at Capitol Avenue Club. Follow him on Twitter.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

After my father and I nearly froze to death from 16 innings of Opening Day “magic” at Thursday’s Indians game, he turned to me and asked, “What if it goes extra innings on Saturday as well?” I responded by saying, “Ubaldo Jimenez will probably give up seven or eight runs in the first couple of innings. Dan Wheeler will be sent in for mop-up duty, and he’ll give up a few more. The offense will be terrible, so it will assuredly end in nine innings.”

I’m glad to say that if I had to be wrong about one of those statements, it was the one about Jimenez. Nobody really knew what to expect from Jimenez today, but Indians fans seemed to fear the worst. He was all over the map in spring training, and was shaky after he plunked Troy Tulowitzki against Colorado last Sunday. With a five-game suspension looming (Jimenez announced that he will drop his appeal) and the ongoing drama with the Rockies, would he be able to put all of that behind him and help the Indians bounce back from their heartbreaking loss Thursday?

Jimenez looked sharp today, and despite the fact that he earned a no-decision in Cleveland's 7-4, 12-inning loss, he took a perfect game into the sixth inning, and a no-hitter into the seventh. From what I saw on the radar gun at the ballpark, he topped out at 93 mph and looked like he was throwing a lot of off-speed pitches. His command, a problem at times this spring, was sharp until the sixth inning. He was able to quiet the bat of Jose Bautista, which no Indians pitcher seemed able to do on Thursday (including Justin Masterson).

While I’m certainly not ready to declare last summer’s trade with Colorado a complete success yet, it has to make Indians fans feel a little bit better to see a strong opening performance from Jimenez. I expected to see more tension and excitement at today’s game as it reached the later innings. The closest I’ve ever been to witnessing a no-hitter was when Cliff Lee took one into the eighth inning against the Cardinals on June 14, 2009; on that night, you could just feel the electricity in the air at Progressive Field, as if something really special was taking place. Today, much of the crowd around me appeared to be disengaged, or Toronto fans. Nobody really seemed to fully grasp the performance they were seeing from Jimenez.

To be fair, most people with a rooting interest in the Indians were preoccupied with complaints about the Indians’ offense. The Tribe has now played 28 innings of baseball in just two games. In those 28 innings, they’ve scored eight runs, six of which have come via the home run. The Indians left just three runners on base on Saturday, two of which were left stranded in the 12th inning after Toronto had already gone ahead by four. While there were a number of missed opportunities on Thursday, they didn’t even have any opportunities to miss this afternoon. In their first two games they’ve had just 12 hits, and three of those came in the bottom of the 12th today. The “major” free agent signing this winter, Casey Kotchman, has started the season 0-for-12. He has yet to hit a ball out of the infield; a couple of his groundouts today didn’t even make it past the pitcher’s mound.

The “Bullpen Mafia” has shown some signs of weakness early in the season, with Chris Perez, Jairo Asencio, Vinnie Pestano, and Tony Sipp all responsible for surrendering runs in pivotal situations. With the offense as weak as it has looked these first two games, the Indians would probably still be playing Thursday’s game if the bullpen continued to hold the Toronto offense scoreless. Both Thursday and today, manager Manny Acta appeared slow to pull the trigger once Perez and Sipp got into trouble. Nobody was warming up, and nobody even tried to stall for time to get someone else up in the bullpen. When your team is struggling to score runs, a quick hook with a struggling bullpen pitcher may be the best form of action.

Even though the Indians have only played two games thus far, Masterson and Jimenez have been the bright spots in both. This offseason, fans were most worried about the starting pitching and the offense. Even though it’s far too soon to declare the starting pitching situation “fine,” I’ve seen enough from the offense to know that I’m concerned. Masterson went eight innings on Thursday, and Jimenez lasted seven today; you can’t ask for much more than that from your starting pitchers.

Now the offense needs to step up and prove that these two games were a fluke, and not the norm. Perhaps they just need to start a feud with Troy Tulowitzki and the Colorado Rockies. It seemed to work for Jimenez.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Stephanie Liscio blogs about the Indians for the SweetSpot network at "It's Pronounced 'Lajaway'," and can be followed on Twitter at @stephanieliscio.

Robin Ventura succeeds Ozzie Guillen as manager of the White Sox, having never managed (or coached) at any level in pro ball. Just what has he gotten himself into?

Distinguished Playing Career

Although he will be hard-pressed to make as vivid an impression as his predecessor, Ventura should be able to command the respect of his players on the basis of his own career as a player. Though he isn’t a Hall of Famer, he has certainly had a career worthy of a Cooperstown exhibit. He was a three-time All-American at Oklahoma State University, where he set the NCAA consecutive game hitting streak record of 58 (he still holds the Division I mark). He was a first-round draft pick (10th overall) of the Chicago White Sox in 1988 and made his big-league debut a year later, after only 129 games in the minors.

While never a top-10 player, with few "black ink" stats on the back of his baseball cards, his career was notable for its consistency. Though he only surpassed 100 RBIs and 30 homers twice in his 16-year career, he was a six-time Gold Glover at third, and from 1991-2003 he compiled a 117 OPS+, with no season lower than 97. Whatever foot speed he had in his youth was erased in a horrific fractured/dislocated ankle injury suffered during a spring training game in 1997. He had compiled a line of .276/.367/.442 prior to 1997, but only .256/.357/.446 from 1997 onward.

Ventura had a knack for making history with the bases loaded. On September 4, 1995, he became only the eighth player to hit two grand slams in the same game. On May 20, 1999, he became the first and only player to hit a grand slam in both games of a doubleheader. During Game Five of the 1999 National League Championship Series, he hit a walkoff slam, which turned into a "Grand Slam Single" when his trip around the bases was interrupted by a celebrating teammate who hoisted Ventura up, preventing him from touching home plate. Another memorable moment came in a game against the Rangers in 1993, when he decided he didn’t like getting hit by Nolan Ryan, and charged the mound, only to be "noogied to death" by the 46-year-old Texan.

Track record of neophyte managers

Of those who will be pacing a dugout in 2012, at least seven went into their first big-league stewardship like Ventura is now, a babe in the managerial woods. But unlike Ventura, they all had prior coaching experience. Let’s examine how those seven did in their first two seasons:

• Dusty Baker (1993 Giants): Baker inherited a team that won 72 games in 1992. Thanks in large part to the addition of free agent Barry Bonds (who compiled a 1.136 OPS), San Francisco improved to a 103-59 record in 1993, with Baker winning NL Manager of the Year. The '94 squad slumped to a 55-60 mark in the strike-curtailed season.
• Bob Melvin (2003 Mariners): The 2002 squad went 93-69, only good enough for third place in the highly competitive American League West and six games out of the wild card. Melvin guided the M’s to the exact same record in his first year. This time they nabbed second place in the West, but still missed the wild card by two games. Melvin’s second year saw the Mariners fall from seventh to last in the AL in runs scored, and the team went 63-99. Melvin was fired after the season.
• Ozzie Guillen (2004 White Sox): After the Sox went 86-76 in 2003, Guillen took over in 2004 and led the team to an 83-79 finish. His second season was when the magic happened: An AL-best 99-63 record and a 11-1 postseason record culminating in the franchise’s first title since 1917.
• Joe Girardi (2006 Marlins): The 2005 Florida squad went 83-79, and Girardi somehow guided the team with the lowest payroll in the majors in '06 to a very respectable 78-84 record. He was rewarded with the NL Manager-of-the-Year award, but not before getting fired by the Marlins due to some clashes with ownership.
• Bud Black (2007 Padres): Black’s fortunes were similar to Melvin’s -- he barely changed the team’s record in his first year (going from 88-74 to 89-74, with that 163rd game being a loss in the wild card tiebreaker), then saw the team totally collapse in his second season (63-99).
• Kirk Gibson (2010 Diamondbacks): The D-backs had suffered through a 70-92 campaign in 2009, and were on the same path in the middle of 2010 at 31-48 when Gibson took over. He guided them to a slightly better 34-49 finish, then surprised most pundits with an NL West Division title in 2011, going 94-68 and earning the league’s Manager-of-the-Year award.
• John Farrell (2011 Blue Jays): After the Jays finished in fourth place in the AL East 2010 despite an 85-77 record, manager Cito Gaston retired, and Farrell was surprisingly given the reins. The Jays meandered to an 81-81 ledger in 2011, never more than four games over or five games under .500 at any point.
• Don Mattingly (2011 Dodgers): Donnie Baseball took over for a retiring Joe Torre, who had gone 80-82 in 2010. Despite all the off-field distractions, and very little offense outside of Matt Kemp, Mattingly was able to guide the Dodgers to an 82-79 record in 2011.

Two of the most recent examples of managers being hired despite no prior managing or coaching experience have turned out poorly:

• Buck Martinez (2001 Blue Jays): The 2000 season saw the Jim Fregosi-led Jays go 83-79. Martinez, who spent most of his post-playing career in the broadcast booth, led the ’01 squad to a similar 80-82 record; after getting off to a 20-33 start in 2002, Martinez was fired.
• A.J. Hinch (2009 Diamondbacks): The 2008 Diamondbacks went a disappointing 82-80, and when they started out 12-17 in '09, Hinch was given the job, at the tender age of 34. He led the team to a 58-75 finish to that season, and was 31-48 in the 2010 campaign when he was replaced by ... Kirk Gibson.

As you can see, most times there is little change in year one, but major upheaval (both good and bad) in year two.

The team he will manage

Since their splendid 99-63 regular season run to the 2005 World Series title, the record of the ChiSox has been neither wretched nor exemplary. With the exception of 2007 (a 72-win campaign), they’ve won between 79 and 90 games each year. They’ve compiled a .511 winning percentage and just one playoff appearance. They rank 13th in W-L percentage during that time.

But last year’s club showed some glaring weaknesses. On offense, the 2011 squad had only two regulars compile an OPS greater than .728 (the league OPS was .730) or over a 100 OPS+. There were 22 players with more than 400 plate appearances and a sub-.660 OPS during 2011, and the Sox had five of them. The team finished no higher than seventh in the AL in any offensive category. It were also the third-oldest offense in the league. On defense, committing the second-fewest errors in the AL couldn’t mask the lack of range afield, as White Sox' Defensive Efficiency ranked third from bottom. If you reached first base against the Sox, you ran, as they threw out a league-low 22 percent of stolen-base attempts. The pitching helped keep some of the pressure off of the defense, as their 7.5 K/9 and 2.78 K/BB led the AL. But they still ended up with a league-average 4.10 ERA.

In 2012, the club will face some major hurdles if it wishes to improve on last season's performance or even just to keep pace with it. The starting rotation must replacing staff ace/workhorse Mark Buehrle’s 200-plus innings. Buehrle’s 2,425 frames since 2001 are 60 more than anyone else. John Danks, who pitched better than his 4.33 ERA might suggest, assumes the No. 1 starter position, with 22-year-old Chris Sale stepping into the rotation. Philip Humber pitched more than 21 2/3 innings in the majors for the first time in 2011, by 141 innings; his BABIP was a low .276, and something may have to give in 2012. In the bullpen, Matt Thornton has been the ChiSox primary set-up man for six years, and had a shot to close last year but lost it; with the departure of Sergio Santos via trade, can the 35-year-old Thornton step up, despite a sharp drop in his K/9 rate last year (12.0 to 9.5)?

On offense, there is a growing concern over second baseman Gordon Beckham. The former first-round draft pick has seen his OPS slide from .807 to .695 to .633, though his defense has improved at second base. Third baseman Brent Morel may not be the answer at the hot corner, as his profile (a .250 doubles hitter with few walks and below-average range) is lacking for the position. Catcher A.J. Pierzynski is 35 and closing in on 1,500 games behind the plate. His 120 games at catcher last year were his lowest since 2004, and he threw out only 20 percent of runners attempting to steal, below his career mark of 24 percent. There have been only 30 player-seasons in the past 50 years where a 35-or-older catcher has managed at least a .728 OPS (as Pierzynski did last year).

Then we come to the two biggest enigmas, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. Everyone is well aware of Dunn’s legendary collapse in 2011, including his .064 batting average versus lefties. With three years and $44 million to go, can new hitting coach Jeff Manto get "The Big Donkey" standing upright again? Also, while Rios will never truly be worth the $21 million he is drawing each year through 2014, the Sox hope for something closer to the .284/.334/.457 line of 2010, rather than the .227/.265/.328 slash of 2011. They’re moving him to left field this season, where he has played one game his entire career.

Will Ventura exceed expectations?

So, Robin Ventura will certainly have his hands full (and tied) with a team that is, at best, in transition and, at worst, about to fall off a cliff. If he can move the White Sox in the right direction, it will be yet another extraordinary performance, as impressive as any of his grand slams. Given his history as a player, and the opportunity to establish a new atmosphere in the clubhouse, I think there is at least a chance he can pull it off.

Diane Firstman blogs about baseball at Value Over Replacement Grit, a SweetSpot network affiliate, and you can follow her on Twitter at @dianagram

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

First the SweetSpot network took on the AL teams. Now they look at the NL. Which players are bloggers most excited to watch this season, and why?

Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton

Upton was finally healthy for an entire season in 2011, and met all the lofty expectations placed on him in the second year of a six-year, $51.25 million contract signed when he was 22. He set career highs in homers (31), RBI (88) and stolen bases (21, caught nine times), while compiling a .289/.369/.529 line. Through their age-23 season, there have been only four others to match Upton’s 91 homers, 62 stolen bases and 119 OPS+: Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, Ken Griffey Jr. and Orlando Cepeda. Pretty elite company, and Upton still has time to mature as a player and team leader. I’m looking forward to watching this multifaceted young man do his thing again in 2012. -- Diane Firstman, Value Over Replacement Grit

Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward

A healthy Heyward has to be the player Braves fans are most excited to see this season. Through injuries, bad habits developed while playing injured and benchings, just about everything that could have gone wrong for such a talent did go wrong last year. Despite all of that, Heyward never hung his head or complained and actually managed to produce slightly above-league-average value in right field. Heyward has reportedly straightened his swing out this offseason and has really worked hard to get his game back on track. If Heyward can get a little more elevation on his swing, while maintaining the other aspects of his rookie performance, Braves fans could once again witness a once-in-a-generation talent leading the team to a successful season. -- Franklin Rabon, Capitol Avenue Club

Chicago Cubs: Travis Wood

In 2010, Wood made his big league debut for the Reds in an outing against the Cubs. He was brought in this offseason as part of the deal that sent Sean Marshall packing. For some, that was a disappointment considering Wood’s ERA last year was 4.84, but if we look beyond that we see that Wood posted a FIP ERA of 4.06, and Bill James projects him for an ERA of 3.75 in 2012. Also factor in that Great American Ballpark is a tough place to pitch; Wood had a 5.30 in the Gap vs. 3.58 on the road. Wrigley is not the hitters’ park we’ve all been told it is, primarily due to the wind blowing in often early in the year. The move from Cincinnati should do a lot toward boosting Wood’s production and confidence. -- Joe Aiello, View From the Bleachers

Cincinnati Reds: Mat Latos

Anticipation is building steadily for Latos' debut in a Cincinnati uniform. At 24 years of age and with a couple of excellent seasons already under his belt, the sky is the limit for him. For Reds fans, there is the hope that the club will have a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation for the first time in a couple of decades. Yes, there is reason for legitimate excitement in the Queen City. -- Chad Dotson, Redleg Nation

Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki

It’s a debate in my mind between Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Both have tremendous gloves, bats and arms. Tulo trained this offseason with Jason Giambi in Las Vegas, and one could extrapolate some motivation from Dan O'Dowd's offseason acquisitions and trades. (O'Dowd believes the team needs leaders and better clubhouse guys, so what does that say about Tulo who plays the most important position on the field, is signed through 2020 and the face of the franchise?). What will Tulo do this year? I think 30 homers, Gold Glove-level defense and solidifying his place as the best player in baseball is a sure bet. Are the playoffs a sure bet for the Rockies? MVP for Tulo? I can't wait to see! -- Travis Lay, Blake Street Bulletin

Houston Astros: Jordan Lyles

With all of the changes, everyone seems to have forgotten that Lyles was recently the Astros’ top prospect. How quickly a young player that showed real promise last year has become overlooked in Houston. He's only 21 years old and had a number of very promising starts last year, posting a fair 4.41 ERA through July before running out of gas and getting shelled in August and September. He clearly needs to continue to build his stamina and strengthen himself to last the entire season. I'm interested to see how he continues to progress and if we can see him grow into the kind of player that can withstand the rigors of an entire major league season. I don't know how the Astros faithful have forgotten about Lyles so fast, but I think they'll be quickly and pleasantly reminded why he was considered a top prospect. -- Austin Swafford, Austin’s Astros 290 Blog

Los Angeles Dodgers: Kemp and Kershaw

Heaven knows it's hard not to be excited about the return of Juan Uribe or the potential of having Juan Rivera for a full season. But even so, there's a small, small part of me that is intrigued by these fellas named Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. They made a bit of an impression last year, and I can't say I'm not going to be, well ... OK, hanging on their every swing and pitch. But to avoid being too reliant on last year's stars, the new Dodger Roadrunner, Dee Gordon, will also be an exciting player to watch. -- Jon Weisman, Dodger Thoughts

Miami Marlins: Logan Morrison

The player I'm truly most excited to see don a Marlins uniform this season is Logan Morrison. Following a splendid sophomore season in 2011, Morrison enters the new season as one of the game's top outfielders in the National League. With a solid approach and some power, a full season from Morrison could result in at least five additional wins for the Fish -- assuming Morrison can remain healthy. -- David Gershman, Marlins Daily

Milwaukee Brewers: Zack Greinke

Last season, the Brewers didn't even get to see their prized acquisition participate in spring training, as Greinke broke a rib playing pickup basketball and missed all of spring and the first month of the season. This season, no basketball for the former Cy Young award winner. He'll be there through spring training and Brewer fans hope to avoid the slow start he suffered through last season. Greinke posted just a 5.63 ERA despite an 80:12 K:BB ratio in May and June last season (mostly thanks to eight home runs) before calming down in the second half. Greinke finished strong, posting a 2.80 ERA thanks to a .233/.293/.373 line allowed in July, August and September. -- Jack Moore, Disciples of Uecker

New York Mets: David Wright

After a winter of discontent for Mets fans, it’s hard to be excited about anyone in particular. The team is in desperate financial straits, is slashing payroll at record rates, and appears destined to finish in last place. Wright, the one player for whom I reserve excitement, may not even be on the team after July 31. Still, I’m highly anticipating his 2012 performance, because after two disappointing seasons I’m convinced that Wright has too much pride to have a third. For the first time in his career, the Mets are “his” team -- he’s the de facto leader, the man who sets the example for everyone else. Chances are, Wright is determined to have a career year, and will pound opposing pitching with a savage vengeance -- all in the name of leading the Mets to a less-than-90-loss season. -- Joe Janish, Mets Today

Philadelphia Phillies: Antonio Bastardo

It was easy to be impressed by the sustained excellence of Atlanta's Jonny Venters last season, but Bastardo was quietly in the same neighborhood. Bastardo had a monster 2011 in which he struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings and held opponents to a .524 OPS. If he can even approach his 2011 performance, Bastardo, along with Jonathan Papelbon and the Phillies' army of young guys who throw hard (Mike Stutes, Justin De Fratus, David Herndon and so on), gives the Phillies' bullpen the potential to be one of the best in the National League. -- Michael Baumann, Crashburn Alley

Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez

While Andrew McCutchen remains eminently exciting, we have a firm grasp on his star-level capabilities. I’m more excited to see whether Alvarez can rebound from his terrible sophomore season and get back to where his debut left off. The Pirates have a chance at a bright future, but all of their elite prospects are several years away. If there is any hope to be a competitive team in 2012, Alvarez has to give McCutchen and Neil Walker some help offensively. He has barely played a full season of games (169), and there is still time for him to meet the expectations that come as a No. 2 overall pick. Hey, Alex Gordon finally did. -- Paul Sporer, Pitt Plank

St. Louis Cardinals: Adam Wainwright

Despite losing everyone's perennial favorite player to watch to free agency, the defending champs have several captivating players in 2012. Partly because fans haven't seen him in a year and partly because he throws one of the most entertaining curveballs in the game, Wainwright will be a sight for sore eyes as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. But the player with whom Wainwright will forever be linked in fans' memories, Carlos Beltran, also figures to be a pivotal and exciting addition to the post-Pujols roster. -- Matt Philip, Fungoes

San Diego Padres: Carlos Quentin

The acquisition of Quentin brings energy, excitement and more total bases (210 in 2011 with the White Sox) and home runs (24) than any Padres player had last year. The Padres now employ two hitting coaches -- a model just a few MLB teams use -- as Phil Plantier and Alonzo Powell help with the workload hitting instruction requires. Quentin plays hard and he will help change the dynamics in the clubhouse. With the Padres' deep farm system and strong pitching, Quentin just might be the player to add the much needed spark of power in the middle of the order. -- Anna McDonald

San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey

I think I can speak for Giants fans everywhere when I say the player that I'm most excited to see play this season is Posey, and it's not even close. His injury in 2011 was a black mark on a year that we'd all like to forget. Beyond the numbers, Posey has quickly become the face of the Giants. He's young, energetic, talented and -- for us fans -- we hope healthy. Regardless of what happens, I'll be happy to see him back on the field in 2012. -- Chris Quick, Bay City Ball

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg

How could it be anyone but Strasburg? When healthy, the most hyped pitching prospect in over a decade has delivered some fabulous pitching performances, and yet it feels like he is just scratching the surface of what he can do. He's as equally likely to blow guys away for a double-digit K performance as he is to shut a team down and let just two guys reach first over eight innings. He looked so good at the end of last year that the feeling is the only thing that can stop him in 2012 are the limits imposed by his own team to protect his recovering arm. -- Harper Gordek, Nationals Baseball

As camps open in Arizona and Florida, we put it to the SweetSpot network: Which player from your team are you most excited to watch this season, and why? First up, the answers from the American League.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters


Why Wieters? He's likely the team's best player, and he's the only one I want to watch whenever he's on the field. At the plate it will be interesting to see if he can build on his 22-homer campaign from 2011 while improving in other areas (a higher average and especially OBP would be nice) to potentially take a place as one of baseball's best hitting catchers. Behind the dish, every stolen-base attempt is exciting (he led the AL in nabbing opposing would-be thieves last year). Can he go from being a very good player to a star? If he does, that could be the most exciting part of Baltimore's season. -- Daniel Moroz, Camden Depot

Boston Red Sox: Daniel Bard


Bard is an object of intrigue this season. He was originally drafted as a starter but after an implosion at the low levels of the minors he was shifted to relief and blossomed as one of the best young arms in the game, becoming the heir apparent to Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth. Instead, Boston has elected to try the starting gambit again, where Bard could become the 2012 version of Alexi Ogando. He needs to develop his changeup further and there are questions on how his control and endurance will hold up on a transition, but he has front-line potential if all goes well. If not, it's back to the purgatory of middle relief, which may force a trade. His ceiling and the risk of the conversion will make him one of the more intriguing players on the Red Sox to watch. -- Evan Brunell, Fire Brand of the AL

Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale


The one guy who’s really going to be fun to watch this spring is the rail-thin Sale. The lefty’s power slider/fastball mix has him well-equipped to make the jump to the rotation in his age-23 season, and he might be the latest success story to add to pitching coach Don Cooper’s track record for success. The questions revolve around his ability to sustain the workload, but Cooper has already noted Sale will have an innings cap. What shot the Sox have got will rely on their rotation; if Sale breaks through, Kenny Williams’ winter inactivity may not look so bad. -- Christina Kahrl

Cleveland Indians: Ubaldo Jimenez


As a child, part of the excitement of Christmas morning was the mystery of what magical toys Santa left under the tree during the night. Was it what you'd been asking for all year or was there some kind of surprise in store? (Like socks.) That's one of the reasons we're excited to watch Ubaldo Jimenez this season. Which version of Jimenez will be in the Indians' rotation: The 2010 NL Cy Young contender or the inconsistent thrower that Cleveland fans saw in 2011? The Indians could use another ace beyond Justin Masterson. When the Tribe surrendered Drew Pomeranz and Alex White for Jimenez, it was a move that angered many fans and left others cautiously optimistic at best. While an incredible pitching performance isn't the only thing that determines a team's fortunes (see Cliff Lee, 2008), a great year for Jimenez could go a long way in determining the success of the Indians this season. If Jimenez struggles early, already pessimistic and dejected Indians fans may be ready to throw in the towel early. -- Stephanie Liscio and Susan Petrone, It’s Pronounced “Lajaway”

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera


You can take Justin Verlander and his impressive hardware. You can also have Prince Fielder and his nine-year contract. The player I'm most interested in is Miguel Cabrera. Will he play third base all year? How much will his defense (or Fielder) affect his offense? Can he continue his streak of 300/30/100 seasons? Cabrera is human, he's shown that to us in the past, and his new challenges are an intriguing storyline. -- Josh Worn, Walkoff Woodward

Kansas City Royals: Mike Moustakas


As he moved up the organizational ladder, Moose developed the reputation as a player with a learning curve delay: Whenever he moved up a rung, he would start slowly before making adjustments and laying waste to that league’s pitching. He held true to form last summer, struggling in his big-league debut to the point that there were whispers the Royals were considering dropping him back to Triple-A. Instead they opted to give him three days off to work with hitting guru Kevin Seitzer, breaking down his swing. It worked, as he ripped through September. Moustakas is poised to pair with teammate Eric Hosmer to give the Royals a one-two punch in the middle of the lineup they'll need to contend in the AL Central. If Moustakas can build on his September, he has the potential to be a special player in Kansas City for years to come. -- Craig Brown, Royals Authority

Los Angeles Angels: Albert Pujols


As you may have heard, Pujols signed with the Angels this offseason. The team has plenty of exciting players, but Pujols will be the man to watch in 2012. Can he bounce back after the worst season of his career? How will he adjust to the American League? There are plenty of questions about the 32-year-old and his huge contract, but we’ll see many of them answered this season. It should be a fun ride. -- Hudson Belinsky, Halos Daily

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer


In many ways, Joe Mauer's 2011 campaign was emblematic of Minnesota's season as a whole. He was hurt often, he didn't get it done on the field and he drew plenty of criticism from media and fans. The Twins, in their second year at a new stadium and with a record payroll, were a huge disappointment. Mauer, in the first year of a massive new contract, was a big reason why. So now he and the team are coming into 2012 with much to prove. Reports on his health have been encouraging and, as he showed in 2009 when he lifted an otherwise mediocre team to the playoffs with an MVP performance, Mauer can be a difference-maker. Relying on a roster dotted with more question marks than a Riddler costume, the Twins are going to need a few of those. -- Nick Nelson, Nick’s Twins Blog

New York Yankees: Michael Pineda


Ever since the Yankees missed out on Cliff Lee before the 2011 season, GM Brian Cashman has been preaching patience to Yankees fans. That patience finally paid off this January when they dealt top prospect Jesus Montero to the Mariners for Pineda. Ever since, Yankees fans have been impatient for the season to start to get a good look at their new young pitcher because there is more than just this season riding on Pineda's success. If he's a failure, Yankees fans will be crying for years watching Montero smack homers out in Seattle. -- Rob Abruzzese, Bronx Baseball Daily

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes


Cespedes is so blindingly obviously the most exciting aspect of the on-field product in Oakland that I'm tempted to be contrarian and claim that I'm jazzed for Josh Reddick's soft Georgia accent and cannon arm instead. I can't bring myself to it, though, because the raw power that Cespedes (supposedly) carries in his bat as a (reportedly) legit center fielder who is (apparently) ready to play (more or less) right now beckons. It's both what's inside and outside the parentheses that makes Cespedes so compelling. Forget about his range afield; his range of possible outcomes is breathtaking. Early Bobby Bonds and late Bobby Crosby both seem well within reach. And if the most compelling part of Cespedes' season winds up being a chase for the strikeout record in September? Well, my most prized A's possession is a Jack Cust shirt, so that suits me fine. -- Jason Wojciechowski, Beaneball

Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez


Picking anyone else would feel wrong -- Felix is the Mariner to be most excited about in 2012. The King is 6 1/2 seasons deep into his Mariner career and has at very least gotten himself in the conversation with Randy Johnson as the franchise's premier hurler. With a full season of King's Court -- the best thing to happen to Safeco Field since Safeco Field itself -- Hernandez's home starts will remain can't-miss events this summer. -- Jon Shields, Pro Ball NW

Tampa Bay Rays: Joe Maddon


I know Joe Maddon isn’t a player but they make him wear a uniform, so he is the 2012 Ray I am most excited to watch. From my seat, Joe outshines all the stars in the Rays clubhouse by standing in the background. Joe is a mad scientist when it comes to the lineup card, mixing and matching on a daily basis. I am on the edge of my seat waiting to see the creative ways he will use the 25 men in the Rays’ 2012 clubhouse. -- Marquis Heilig, The Ray Area

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish


Darvish is arguably the most exciting and most intriguing new face in the majors right now, and he's a Texas Ranger, which makes him a slam-dunk pick for the most exciting player to watch in Arlington this season. The Rangers bet historically huge money on Darvish and the hope that he can emerge as a true ace, but it's never the best idea to set the expectation bar that high, and I know I'll be more than satisfied with a legitimate No. 2-caliber performance. The promise of so much more, though, and the still mysterious aura that surrounds Darvish ... those qualities make Darvish the most exciting player in a Rangers uniform right now. -- Joey Matschulat, Baseball Time in Arlington

Toronto Blue Jays: Brett Lawrie


The Royals’ Mike Moustakas wasn’t the only highly touted third-base prospect to make his debut in 2011. Lawrie, a 22-year-old hitting machine with soft hands and great bat speed, gave Toronto fans a glimpse of their future at the hot corner. Acquired from the Brewers in a December 2010 deal for Shaun Marcum, Lawrie dealt with fractured bones in each of his hands in 2011, but still managed to compile a .293/.373/.580 line in 43 games at the major league level. His defense still needs some work, but it was his first full season at the position. The members of the Blue Jays brass think they have a keeper at the position. -- Diane Firstman, Value Over Replacement Grit

Tuesday’s National League Most Valuable Player vote probably isn’t going to inspire quite the same outcry as Monday’s American League outcome. That’s because the AL MVP race gave us reasons to re-explore the reliably entertaining debate about whether or not pitchers should be considered, whether or not it’s “a hitter’s award,” and maybe even made a few of us ponder the more esoteric question of why the Hank Aaron Award for the top hitter in each league ought to be invested with greater significance.

The NL’s shorter spread of top candidates and possible victors makes for an easier choice, with Matt Kemp of the Los Angeles Dodgers representing the heavy favorite among statheads, while Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers might represent the favorite for those inclined to invest some additional significance in the performance of a player's team. Arguing whether that latter perspective has a place in the argument is an argument all to itself about what the MVP award is supposed to reward, and that ambiguity is sure to keep debates raging, year after year.

Statistically, the raw hitting data might seem to slightly favor Braun’s case over Kemp’s: Braun hit .332/.397/.597 with 33 home runs to Kemp’s .324/.399/.586 with 39 homers, and Kemp’s 40 steals in 51 attempts doesn’t represent a huge advantage over Braun’s 33-for-39 breakout performance on the bases.

But take into account their home parks -- Dodger Stadium being a tougher place to hit -- and Kemp’s solid performance at a key defensive position to Braun’s mediocrity in a corner outfield spot, and you get a couple of big reasons to wind up with Kemp over Braun. Whatever flavor of WAR you care to employ if so inclined gives Kemp a decided advantage, 10.0 to 7.7 using Baseball-Reference.com, or 8.7 to 7.8 if you’re using FanGraphs. If you’re using BaseballProspectus.com’s variation on this theme, BWARP, the gap widens to 8.9 to 6.4, with Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds slipping in between them at 7.0.

With all of that in mind as we look forward to the announcement, we polled the SweetSpot network’s bloggers for their two cents and top five choices for NL MVP. The results:

Matt Kemp, Dodgers: 335 points (22 first-place votes)
Ryan Braun, Brewers: 238 points (3)
Joey Votto, Reds: 134 points
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks: 102 points
Prince Fielder, Brewers: 84 points
Roy Halladay, Phillies: 60 points
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies: 56 points
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 26 points
Albert Pujols, Cardinals: 26 points
Jose Reyes, Mets: 19 points
Shane Victorino, Phillies: 12 points
Lance Berkman, Cardinals: 8 points

The gang’s as data-savvy a group as you’d wish for, so to some extent the result might have been a foregone conclusion; we’ll see if this year’s BBWAA electors arrive at the same result. Certainly if I had a vote, Kemp would have been my selection. Perhaps it was with the anticipation of this outcome that the Dodgers consummated their eight-year, $160 million deal with him, but the award should be immaterial to his compensation -- he had a great season with or without the trophy, and the deal’s fraught with risk, as David Schoenfield has noted.

After Kemp, the SweetSpot crew sensibly ran with Braun and Votto. Justin Upton’s case as best Diamondback and overall fine season (.289/.369/.529) get a healthy amount of respect, with standbys like Fielder, Pujols and Tulo getting some due down-ballot. Seeing both Reyes and Victorino is a nice reflection of their importance as top performers at key defensive positions, albeit stars whose seasons suffered from being shortened by injury.

What might also be interesting about this spread in light of Justin Verlander’s triumph in the AL MVP voting is that a couple of pitchers drew attention in the SweetSpot’s internal ballot. Statheads’ champ Roy Halladay -- well, my own, at any rate -- came out ahead of NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw in the network’s MVP voting. We’ll see if pitchers command anything like this amount of respect among the BBWAA’s NL Cy Young voters.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

The Tampa Bay Rays faced their biggest remaining pitching challenge on paper Saturday night with Toronto Blue Jays ace Ricky Romero and his 2.98 ERA taking the hill against them. Knowing that the Boston Red Sox had already been tattooed by a score of 9-1 in Yankee Stadium no doubt eased the burden of facing Romero and the Jays, but the Rays stepped up with a huge 6-2 win to pull within a game and a half of the Red Sox in the American League wild-card race, as Johnny Damon’s eighth-inning home run expanded their one-run lead to a comfortable margin.

The game was a reversal of an unfortunate trend for Tampa Bay whereby the Rays kept dropping huge opportunities to draw closer to the Red Sox. They weren’t able to take advantage of the Sox dropping three out of four to the Baltimore Orioles, as they posted the same record in a four-game set against the Yankees. Their competition was much tougher than Baltimore, but they had both James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson throwing in that series, yet it was rookie phenom Matt Moore who bailed them out with a fourth-game win in his first big league start.

The odds are still stacked against the Rays by virtue of the fact they are trailing with four games left (five for the Red Sox, including a day-night doubleheader Sunday), but they have a discernible advantage with their starting pitching the rest of the way. This should come as no surprise, as pitching is the only reason they are in this race in the first place. Their 684 runs scored are just one better than the lowly Orioles and 168 behind the powerful Red Sox. However, their 600 runs allowed is an American League-best -- made more impressive by the fact that they have to face Sox and Yanks 18 times apiece and they don’t get to face their own offense at any point during the season.

Sunday’s finale against the Blue Jays pits Wade Davis against Brett Cecil and should be the only one of the remaining games where the opposing hurler is anything close to equal to what the Rays are putting on the mound. Davis has faced the Blue Jays four times this year with mixed results. His composite numbers yield a 4.90 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 26 innings of work thanks in large part to a six earned-run outing in just 4 1/3 innings on Aug. 29 in Toronto. On one hand, he has had success against the Jays in more starts than not (3.36 ERA in the three starts before that bad game), but on the other hand his most recent effort was his worst and it was just a month ago.

While it’s true that wins count the same no matter when they come, the Rays essentially need to win all four games on their schedule, but a win Sunday would be especially nice because the Red Sox have that doubleheader and there could be a major momentum shift one way or another depending on the outcome of Sunday’s three games. As a stats-oriented baseball fan, I read a lot of stuff that eschews any notion of momentum, but that seems to sometimes forget that these games are played by human beings, not automatons programmed to achieve their peak potential on a daily basis. This isn’t an anti-stats screed on any level, just an acknowledgment of the fact that a Rays win on Sunday afternoon paired with a Red Sox split or pair of losses would be a colossal boost for the Rays. The first outcome would leave the Rays down by one, the second with the teams tied with three games to play.

Even with the playoff fate of their hated rival on the line and their own playoff fate sealed, the Yankees aren’t going to lay down to the Rays in the season’s final series, but CC Sabathia is done pitching for the regular season, while the Rays have their three best established hurlers going in Shields, Hellickson and David Price. The Yankees are throwing Phil Hughes, Bartolo Colon and TBD.

Hughes has looked sharp in his past two starts (albeit against Baltimore and Seattle), but he draws Shields, who has been masterful against the Yankees this year (and everybody else) with a 2.40 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 30 innings across four starts. However, “Big Game” James is just 1-3 in those outings thanks to a combined five runs of support.

Meanwhile, Colon was trounced in the Moore game on Thursday and has really labored the past two months (5.08 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 62 innings). He will square off against Hellickson, who has a pair of seven IP, two-run outings against the Yankees sandwiched by a flameout start of four earned runs in the Bronx in August.

It won’t really matter who Price faces because it won’t be Sabathia, meaning advantage Rays. Price has been a mixed bag against the Yankees with two great starts and two poor ones resulting in a composite 4.26 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 25 innings, but he thrives on big situations against the best teams. He has a 2.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 149 innings against teams with winning records this year. If Wednesday's game has significance, Price bringing his best stuff will be the least of Tampa Bay’s concerns.

Though they are fighting for a berth into the real playoffs, make no mistake that the Rays are in the playoffs already. They can ill afford to lose again the rest of the way and, while the Red Sox are the targets, the Rays also need to be mindful of the Angels, who are still trying to make this a three-team race over the next four days. Sunday sets the tone for the final series of all three teams since Boston plays two games; if it loses both, the Rays become the favorite due to their significant pitching advantage in the season’s final series.

Not only will the Rays hold the advantage with all three starting pitching matchups in their final series, but they still have Moore -- who wasn’t the least bit intimidated by the Yankees as he fanned 11 and shut them out for five innings -- on hand should they need him in a key spot out of the bullpen. Their offense, an Achilles heel for most of the season, is peaking at the right time with 4.7 runs per game in September, well above its 4.3 average for the season.

As we saw a previously race-less finish develop into a dogfight for the AL wild card, it is hard not to continually ask what would have happened if the Rays had removed Sam Fuld and his .302 wOBA for Desmond Jennings much sooner than July 23.

We can wonder and second-guess the decision, but it’s better to focus on the fact that they still have a real chance at this despite that egregious error, even while acknowledging that there is no excuse for leaving Jennings down that long. There is enough negativity in baseball (whether on blogs, major websites or Twitter) that sometimes it clouds the greatness in the game, like an amazing down-to-the-wire race between David (with his $42 million payroll) and Goliath (shelling out $164 million). With four days left on the schedule, sit back and enjoy this one.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Paul Sporer writes at Pitt Plank, the little piece of Piracy in the SweetSpot network.

On Saturday, rookie designated hitter Jesus Montero was a significant reason why the Yankees defeated Jon Lester and the Red Sox 9-1, going 3-for-4 with a home run and four RBIs. From the moment Montero was called up this season, he has been an impact-level contributor, representing a win for the Yankees in a number of ways.

First and perhaps most obviously, Montero has been the Yankees’ best performer since his call-up on Sept. 1, suggesting that his underwhelming numbers from the minor leagues this season (.814 OPS at Triple-A) might not be a significant concern for his long-term future.

Since Sept. 1, Montero is hitting .346/.414/.635 with four home runs. Performance of that caliber is not likely to continue in the long-term -- he’s posted a .438 batting average on balls in play and a 27.8 percent line-drive rate, both of which would lead MLB, so they’re essentially unsustainable. However, it is reasonable to expect he will continue to represent an upgrade on what the team had received from its designated hitters to this point. Specifically, Montero has already outproduced Jorge Posada despite more than 300 fewer plate-appearances.

Despite about one-seventh of the total playing time, Montero has produced an additional 0.7 Wins Above Replacement compared to Posada. So in that sense Montero’s production represents a win for the Yankees in that he’s producing in general and he’s represented a significant upgrade for a position that had plagued the Yankees’ offense for much of this season.

However, this also represents a big win for the Yankees in the sense that Montero is still on the team. Don’t forget, back in early July of last season, the Yankees nearly traded Montero to the Seattle Mariners for Cliff Lee. However, the Mariners opted for the Texas Rangers’ offer that included Justin Smoak.

While there was noticeable controversy around those trade negotiations at the time, it appears as though GM Brian Cashman’s words from earlier this week are ringing true through the early portion of the respective careers of Montero and Smoak. Cashman stated, “I wanted Lee badly enough to move Montero. You take all the players traded when Lee went from Cleveland to Philly, Philly to Seattle, and Seattle to Texas, and Montero would've been by far the best player moved in any of those deals. ... But now I'm just happy fans have had a chance to get a better feel of why I was hesitant to make that deal.”

Montero has thrived in the early going, while Smoak has largely disappointed. Despite more than 800 fewer plate appearances, Montero has nearly outproduced Smoak in terms of Wins Above Replacement; while Montero has been red-hot of late, Smoak is batting just .194/.268/.265 since June 24. As a result, Smoak has been among the worst players in baseball since the start of last season: In his 871 plate appearances, Smoak has produced 0.5 Wins Above Replacement. Among players with at least 800 plate PAs since the start of the 2010 season, Smoak’s .703 OPS ranks 160th out of 195 qualifying batters, and his 0.5 WAR ranks among the least productive, with just five players doing worse: Chone Figgins (-0.1), Orlando Cabrera (0.1), Adam Lind (0.1), Ryan Theriot (0.3) and Raul Ibanez (0.4).

Considering that the age of both players -- Montero is in his age-21 season, while Smoak in his age-24 campaign -- leaves plenty of room for analysis and judgment, the Mariners’ decision to take Smoak over Montero to this point looks like a mistake.

However, the more relevant angle over the course of the next month could be that the Yankees didn’t move Montero last season and, thus, have an impact bat to DH for them entering the postseason -- and that Montero might just live up to all the hype after all.

"Moneyball" is about a small-market, cash-strapped baseball team that succeeded by using innovative methods -- included valuing OBP, ignoring size and body types when evaluating amateur talent and using quantitative analysis (i.e., sabermetrics). In its purest form, "Moneyball" is about finding value in undervalued assets -- or exploiting market inefficiencies.

Almost a year before the movie's premiere, the "big market," financially distressed Mets hired Sandy Alderson, the "godfather of 'Moneyball,'" to right their sinking ship. Immediately, Alderson began applying Moneyball-style concepts in Flushing -- some that might be familiar from the book, others that may have been developed more recently. How have these strategies worked out? We'll review some of them and then you can be the judge.

Valuing OBP

With Alderson as GM, the Mets would no longer be signing walk-less free swingers such as Jeff Francoeur and Rod Barajas. Instead, they added players with strong on-base potential such as Willie Harris and Brad Emaus, and gave minor-league OBP machine Josh Thole a chance to win the catching position. Additionally, they hired hitting coach Dave Hudgens, who initiated a new hitting approach that valued patience, working counts and taking walks. The result? With a week left in the season, the Mets are first in the NL in walks, and second in OBP -- mission accomplished. However, despite all those baserunners, they're only fifth in the NL in runs scored. Why? Because they also lead all of MLB in runners left on base.

Get On Base, Hit Dingers, and Value Every Out

This is an extension of the previous entry, and may help explain why the Mets couldn't score more runs. Sabermetric studies suggest that it's best to get on board and wait for someone to push you around the bases -- preferably via the long ball. That said, attempting to steal bases should be kept to a minimum, since it risks outs. Similarly, the sacrifice bunt is a bad idea.

This strategy works well when you have sluggers who can hit balls over fences. But that skill was lacking in Flushing this season: The Mets are 14th out of 16 NL teams in home runs, and their leading slugger has hit only 15 -- and he (Carlos Beltran) was traded in July.

You can wonder if this Moneyball principle can work for a team that plays half its games in a ballpark as enormous as Citi Field. Indeed, Sandy Alderson has already announced the fences could be moved in for 2012. Which begs the question: Do you build a team to suit the park, adjust the park for the team -- or change the dimensions to force a formula to work?

Batting Average and Stolen Bases Are Overrated

A basic Moneyball tenet is that batting average is not a good indicator of a hitter's value; on-base percentage and OPS are much more reliable measurements. Additionally, attempting to steal a base is a mathematically risky proposition that should generally be avoided. Henceforth, players with high averages and high stolen-base totals -- particularly those with low OBPs -- are usually overrated.

Sandy Alderson applied this tenet when Jose Reyes requested a conversation regarding a contract extension prior to spring training. Though the speedy shortstop stole plenty of bases and hit for a fairly high average, Alderson cited Reyes' low OBP in 2010 and recent injury history to deny the request, saying, "we'll wait and see" what happens in the 2011 season. As it turned out, Reyes had a career year, leading the NL in hitting for much of the season and posting a career-high OBP. Did Alderson make a mistake by not negotiating with Reyes at a time when the team held considerable leverage? Or was it a smart move, since Reyes did have some hamstring issues and, in turn, his stolen-base total reduced significantly?

Undervalued Assets: Pitchers Coming Off Surgery

Signing pitchers with bum arms wasn't a concept published in the "Moneybal," but it seemed to be a "market inefficiency" identified by the new Mets front office. Sometimes a team will take a chance on one or maybe two pitchers whose health is a major question mark, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.

The Mets, however, signed six of these guys: Chris Young, Chris Capuano, Boof Bonser, Taylor Buchholz, Taylor Tankersley and Jason Isringhausen. The logic was that all of these pitchers were undervalued because of their injury histories and their recent appearances on surgeon’s tables.

How did it turn out? The good news: Capuano wound up giving the Mets 30 starts and Jason Isringhausen came out of the bullpen 53 times. Young was spectacular through his first four starts, then reinjured his shoulder and was done for the year. Buchholz lasted until June, when shoulder fatigue and other issues ended his season. Bonser and Tankersley never made it out of spring training.

Errors Aren’t a Good Measurement of Defensive Ability

Defensive statistics are still evolving, with disagreement about the best metrics. One thing that has nearly universal agreement, however, is that errors don't tell much about a fielder's ability. As Bill James once stated, "you have to do something right to get an error; even if the ball is hit right at you, then you were standing in the right place to begin with." We don't know for sure what defensive metrics the Mets are using internally for evaluation purposes. However, we do know for sure that the Mets are second in the NL in errors -- and fourth in MLB -- with 113. Does it mean anything?

Saves are a Useless Stat; Closers are Overrated

This one is a favorite in saber-circles: Converting the last three outs of a ballgame is highly overrated and, in turn, most closers are similarly overrated and overpaid. The thinking is that equally important outs often occur earlier in the game -- sometimes as early as the fifth or sixth inning. Further, the ability to get outs in the ninth is not necessarily a specialized skill -- getting outs, period, is what’s important.

Following with that line of thinking, a team is better served "creating" a closer from within their organization or by finding someone undervalued by others, rather than acquiring an established (and expensive) closer. Sandy Alderson did this when he pulled former starter Dennis Eckersley off the scrapheap and made him a one-inning finisher; Billy Beane did the same with Jason Isringhausen at the turn of the 21st century.

Perhaps with this logic in mind, the Mets were quick to shed a potentially enormous vesting option by trading veteran closer Francisco Rodriguez after the All-Star Game, using a "closer by committee" situation for the second half of the season. Unfortunately, it didn't turn out so well, as the Mets blew 22 saves in 2011, converting only 65 percent. What makes those numbers more dismal is this: Rodriguez converted 23 of 26 save opportunities before leaving New York, while all other Met relievers converted only 17 of 36 chances (47 percent).

Alderson himself is now wondering whether the save -- and closers -- aren't so overrated after all. When speaking to Adam Rubin regarding the bullpen's inability to close out games, Alderson said, "I think it has a real impact on not just team success, but also team outlook, team attitude, team confidence. Blown saves from time to time are part of the game, but blowing them at an inordinate rate can have, I think, a real negative impact on a team. So it needs to be a point of concentration for us."

Conclusion

Sandy Alderson has had less than a full year to establish his imprint on the Mets, so it's too early to know whether his strategies will turn the team into a winner. As of now, it seems that Moneyball tactics may be outdated, and new ones are under development. In some ways, Flushing, New York, could be considered a laboratory, where the next market inefficiencies are being hypothesized and tested. Ten years from now, a sequel to "Moneyball" might be published -- if there are still books by then. And maybe by then Brad Pitt will be old enough to play Sandy Alderson in the movie.

Joe Janish is the founder of Mets Today, a SweetSpot network affiliate, and has thrown BP to Don Mattingly, caught Jim Bouton's knuckleball, and eaten a meal prepared by Rusty Staub. You can follow him on Twitter here.

If I asked a majority of baseball fans who the most dangerous pitcher who could start games this postseason would be, most would say Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or CC Sabathia. All of these pitchers have won or -- in Verlander's case, about to win -- a Cy Young award at some point during their careers. But that list of obvious greats overlooks one deserving member of this club: The Brewers’ Zack Greinke, who may actually be the most dangerous starting pitcher entering the playoffs.

In terms of SIERA (Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average), an ERA estimator, Greinke ranks first among all pitchers in baseball with a 2.40 mark. In terms of xFIP, which stabilizes a pitchers’ home run ratio, he also leads the league with a 2.46 mark, well ahead of Roy Halladay’s 2.68.

These ERA estimators like Greinke so much because of his incredible strikeout rate and solid walk rate. He has struck out 28.8 percent of the batters he has faced this season, which is the highest number since 2009, when Tim Lincecum also struck out 28.8 percent of opposing batters. Lincecum won the Cy Young award that year, but Greinke is far from contending for the award in the National League this season.

The main reason for that is that Greinke’s actual ERA is much higher than the estimators’ project. Only four pitchers have a bigger gap between their ERA and FIP, which shows that these pitchers have been at least somewhat unfortunate this season. In Greinke’s case, his home-run rate and batting average on balls in play have kept him away from the elite status that he likely deserves. His home run per fly ball rate is the highest of his career, and his BABIP is the highest it has been since 2005, his second season in the majors.

The Brewers’ ace has also had trouble stranding people on base, which is often looked at as a sign of poor luck rather than skill, especially for a pitcher with as high of a strikeout rate as Greinke. Only six pitchers have a lower left-on-base percentage than Greinke, which is not something teams will be able to count on or expect in the playoffs.

As mentioned earlier, Greinke has had great control along with his incredible penchant for striking batters out. Greinke is on the verge of becoming just the 10th starter in major league history with over 10 strikeouts per nine innings and a 4.00 K/BB. For what is least affected by outside sources -- the park he plays in, or his defense -- Greinke is on a level that not many give him credit for. Some of the other pitchers to accomplish this feat are Sandy Koufax, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez.

Many Cy Young voters and a majority of fans still value ERA much more than defensive-independent pitching statistics. For that reason Greinke’s season is overlooked, though much of the reason his ERA is so high is because of shaky defense at all positions aside from center field, plus a park susceptible to home runs. Greinke’s home run rate per fly ball in Miller Park is above 12 percent, yet he still managed to post a 2.89 ERA and 2.03 FIP at home.

When playoff time comes, each contending team will have its own top-notch pitchers. Although Greinke has won a Cy Young in the past, he is seemingly overlooked when talking of top-of-the-rotation arms headed to the postseason. Expect Greinke to excel in his first playoff appearance, which could propel the Brewers to the first deep playoff run they have had in over a quarter-century.

Ben Duronio writes about the Braves for the Capitol Avenue Club, part of the SweetSpot network. You can follow or tweet him at @Ben_Duronio.

A few weeks ago, it seemed as though the last week of the baseball season was going to be a long, unbearable slog to the beginning of the postseason. The wild cards in both leagues seemed all but settled, and the only division that looked truly competitive was the AL East, but the loser of that race was going to get into the playoffs as the wild-card team anyway. Most observers would worry it would turn into a repeat of 2010, when the Yankees and Rays both played as though the division crown were a hot potato.

That seems like a long time ago, doesn't it? In the interim, the wild-card races in both leagues have gotten competitive. The American League race has gotten the most attention, both because we saw several head-to-head games between the Red Sox and the Rays last week, and because the Red Sox are in the midst of a historically bad month of September. Things have been so bad in Boston that it's actually hard to remember they're currently holding a 2.5-game lead in the race after Tampa Bay's loss to Toronto on Friday night.

The National League race has been equally intriguing, as the Cardinals, once left for dead in the wake of the red-hot Brewers, clawed their way back into the conversation, entering play on Friday just two games behind the Braves. Atlanta once seemed as much of a lock for the NL wild card as the Red Sox/Yankees did in the junior circuit. To make things even more intriguing, the Cardinals were at home to face the woeful Cubs while the Braves were in Washington, staring down Stephen Strasburg. And wouldn't you know it, the Braves drove Strasburg from the game after four innings and beat Washington 7-4. Meanwhile, the Cardinals lost to the Cubs 5-1 after Chris Carpenter had to leave after just 93 pitches after he was pinch-hit for to lead off the bottom of the seventh as Tony La Russa tried to conjure up some offense.

The loss was especially frustrating for St. Louis, because they seemed to be controlling the game until the fateful eighth inning. Carpenter allowed just one run on five hits and two walks while striking out five in seven innings. After Carpenter was removed for that pinch-hitter in the bottom of the seventh, Jon Jay singled, but was thrown out stealing before Nick Punto singled as well. Albert Pujols popped out to end the inning, and that was basically it. They went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring positions and left 10 men on base. Kyle McClellan would give up a one-out, three-run home run to Alfonso Soriano, and the Cardinals found themselves in a steep hole, both in the game and in the standings.

The Braves now find themselves with a choke hold on the wild card, with their magic number down to three with just five games to go. However, if there's any reason for hope left for St. Louis, it's in the schedule. After finishing their home season with the Cubs this weekend, the Cardinals will finish the regular season in Houston, facing the worst team in the majors. In contrast, once the Braves are done in Washington they will go home to play a three-game set with the Phillies, owners of the majors' best record.

A comeback at this point remains a tall order for Tony La Russa's team, which now pretty much has to win all five of their remaining games, and even then will need Atlanta to go no better than 2-3 to finish the 2011 season -- and that’s just in order for the Cardinals to get a one-game playoff. Friday night was an important night for both teams, and the Braves rose to the challenge on the road, while the Cardinals simply couldn't get the job done against the Cubs. The National League wild-card race isn't officially over yet, but the Cardinals just need far too much to go their way at this point. It's probably safe to go back to wondering if the Red Sox will ever win again.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Brien Jackson writes for It's About the Money Stupid!, a Sweetspot Network affiliate. You can follow him on Twitter, and follow IIATMS on Twitter and Facebook.

You’ll have to forgive the Philadelphia Phillies if they don’t celebrate too much Saturday after a 9-2 victory against the St. Louis Cardinals. Yes, the Phillies clinched the National League East for the fifth straight year. Yes, they picked up their 98th victory, leaving them two away from 100 wins, a sure sign of elite status. No, the Phillies gathered after tonight’s win almost as if it were one of the other ninety-seven victories they have experienced this season, not as if they had just made history yet again.

The Phillies have much higher aspirations than just another division championship. Winning the NL East wasn’t just a goal, it was an expectation. Of course, when your rotation includes three legitimate Cy Young contenders, high expectations are part of the deal.

At this point, the dominance of Philadelphia's rotation is well documented. The Phillies lead the majors with a 3.00 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 101 quality starts. With Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels all posting ERAs under 2.71, the only thing that may keep one of them from winning the Cy Young Award is each other. Halladay and Lee have two of the top five WAR marks among pitchers in the game, bringing their team 14.6 wins above replacement-level players. Hamels isn’t far behind, with the 14th-best WAR among pitchers. All of them have strikeout rates over 22.6 percent and walk rates under 5.2 percent, an incredible combination.

This is all without mentioning the two pitchers slated after the three aces: Roy Oswalt and breakout star Vance Worley. After missing most of the summer with back injuries, Oswalt returned in August and has pitched decently. His 3.57 FIP indicates that he has been pitching better than his ERA and record suggest, and opponents’ .328 BABIP reveals that he has been getting a bit unlucky. If the Phillies use Oswalt as their fourth starter in October, the pundits complaining about his low strikeout rate will be lauding the team’s depth in the postseason.

Worley has been a rookie-season revelation for Philly. Thrust into the rotation to replace the ineffective Joe Blanton, Worley has posted a 2.85 ERA while winning 11 games. Unlike other breakout pitchers Ryan Vogelsong and Jeff Karstens, Worley seems to be for real. His 3.15 FIP indicates that he’s not due for much regression. Come October, Worley will be yet another luxury for a team already full of them.

While Philly’s rotation may be stocked, its offense, so potent in the first few years of this five season run, is quite average. The Phillies rank 12th in the league in runs with 664 and 10th overall in on-base percentage with a .322 mark. They don’t hit for much power, or even extra-base hits, with a .398 SLG percentage, good for 16th in the game. Star slugger Ryan Howard continues to decline, entering the night with a .249 batting average, although his 33 home runs make it hard to complain. Raul Ibanez has never been able to recreate the magic he displayed with the bat during his first few months in Philly two years ago. The Phillies’ underrated MVP on offense may be Shane Victorino. The center fielder leads the team in OBP and average and his 6.0 WAR is the best on the offense, and his 19 stolen bases reflect his value on the basepaths.

The loss of right fielder Jayson Werth in the offseason projected to be detrimental to the team, and it was -- at least until July 29. That was the night that general manager Ruben Amaro pulled the trigger on a trade that landed Hunter Pence. Pence has done everything expected of him since he’s taken over in right field. He’s hit .310, blasted nine homers, stolen eight bases and delivered a .922 OPS, all while playing stellar defense. Considering that he was taking over for the young Domonic Brown, who is hitting .246 with five home runs, Pence has truly been invaluable. Hungry for his first postseason experience, Pence may be the player that propels Philly’s offense to October glory.

So, the Phillies have done it again. They deserve the champagne they were doused in tonight. They deserve the almost unfair expectations that have been placed on them since that December evening in which Lee did the improbable and cold-shouldered the Yankees. But ask anyone in that damp clubhouse and they will tell you they haven’t done anything yet.

The rotation is set. The offense is rejuvenated. The Phillies are ready to make a run. Next, we'll find out if baseball's other playoff teams will be ready for them.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Alex Convery writes for Fire Brand of the American League, the Red Sox affiliate of the SweetSpot network. You can follow him on Twitter.