SweetSpot: Tampa Bay Rays
Don't expect Wil Myers to star right away
June, 16, 2013
Jun 16
11:57
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Finally, the torment and distress of the blogging world will be put to rest: Wil Myers is heading to the big leagues.
After hitting .314 with 37 home runs in the minors last year with Kansas City, many believed Tampa Bay's big offseason acquisition should have opened the season with the Rays. But they sent him back to Triple-A for more seasoning; most insisted the Rays were simply looking to save money for the future. By delaying his service time the Rays can push back his arbitration eligibility by a season, potentially saving a few million in the process if Myers develops into a good player.
That net gain, however, possibly resulted in a net loss so far on the field. Luke Scott, Ryan Roberts, Sam Fuld and Shelley Duncan have combined for 447 plate appearances with a .217 average, 10 home runs and -0.2 WAR. Myers wouldn’t have replaced all their playing time, but if he’d been with the Rays since Opening Day and played regularly he would have used up about 275 of the PAs and presumably hit better than replacement level. Not playing Myers may have cost the Rays a win, and that’s being conservative based on his potential production.
Of course, the Rays traditionally are more cautious in promoting their prospects. Yes, they’re pinching pennies, but they also want their players to be major league ready. Remember when David Price pitched out of the bullpen and dominated in the 2008 playoffs? He still made eight Triple-A starts the following season. Desmond Jennings had more than 1,000 plate appearances in Triple-A. When Matt Moore was blowing through Double-A and Triple-A in 2011, the Rays resisted the urge to promote him.
Other organizations hold a different philosophy. The Braves, for example, broke camp with Jason Heyward as their starting right fielder in 2010 even though he had just 50 games above Double-A. Freddie Freeman was the team’s first baseman in 2011 even though he was just 21. Evan Gattis had barely 200 PAs in Double-A last year but has been a huge asset to the big league club.
"We felt like now was the right time," Rays VP Andrew Friedman said of promoting Myers now. "He made some real adjustments in the last six weeks and that really stood out to us. It was something we were monitoring very closely."
Presumably, some of those adjustments, at least in part, included cutting down on his strikeouts. Myers fanned 140 times in the minors last year, striking out in 23.7 percent of his PAs. His strikeout rate has been the same this year -- 24.6 percent -- but has been down to 16 percent in June, during which he has hit .339/.377/.696, after hitting .289 in April and .255 in May.
Whether his improved performance has been the result of adjustments or just riding a hot streak remains to be seen. With the fewer strikeouts have also come fewer walks, so it could be a more aggressive approach at the plate or just better contact. It could just be a 22-year-old kid getting focused after disappointingly being sent down to the minors.
How will Myers do? I can’t answer that question but we can look at some comparable call-ups. Myers was the No. 4 prospect before the season on both Keith Law’s and Baseball America’s top 100 list, so I looked up the before and after results of other top-15 position players prospects who were called up around June 1 in recent seasons. (So the chart below doesn’t include players like Heyward, Freeman, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and Travis Snider -- yes, he was a top-10 prospect -- who started the year in the majors or got called up early.)
The reason I wrote above about Myers' strikeouts is because the strikeouts are clearly a concern. In looking at his walk and strikeout rates, the most comparable player for Myers is Pedro Alvarez, and that's probably not the player the Rays and prospect hounds hope Myers will turn into. But they're pretty similar and I can see Myers developing along the Alvarez path as a low-average, high-power guy if he doesn't cut down on his whiffs. Myers is a year younger than when Alvarez reached the majors, so keep in mind he does have a year of growth ahead of him.
As for 2013, six of the 10 players in the chart produced an OPS+ above league average. Carlos Santana actually had the best followed by Buster Posey. Myers' minor league numbers don't compare with theirs, even when you adjust Posey's Pacific Coast League-inflated totals. Again, something like what Alvarez did his rookie season -- .256/.326/.461 -- seems reasonable. That's not great, but it's a lot better than what the Rays have been getting from Luke Scott & Co.
Of course, if the Rays are to improve, it's not Myers they need to rely upon. They need to get Price back and get Jeremy Hellickson figured out and decide whether to ditch Roberto Hernandez. Because if the rotation doesn't improve this team isn't going anywhere, no matter what Myers does.
Rays staying in race thanks to offense
June, 11, 2013
Jun 11
1:26
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
I know, I know: You're tired of stat nerds professing their love for the Tampa Bay Rays, a franchise that hasn't even reached the World Series since 2008, let alone ever won one.
Why do we love the Rays? They compete despite usually ranking near the bottom in payroll. Why write about them on a night they lost 10-8 to the Boston Red Sox in 14 innings? They always find a way to compete, a credit to the front office's ability to build depth; a credit to the managerial genius of Joe Maddon and his coaching staff; a credit to the players, for their ability to adapt to situations that Maddon creates for them.
This year, the Rays are winning in a new way: They score runs. Cy Young winner David Price won just once in nine starts before landing on the disabled list; like Price, starters Jeremy Hellickson and Roberto Hernandez have ERAs of more than 5.00. In fact, of the 73 American League pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings, those three rank Nos. 54, 59 and 63 in ERA; that is decidedly un-Tampa like.
Instead, the Rays are averaging 4.97 runs per game, a sizable increase from last year's 4.30 per game. If they keep up that pace, that's a 107-run jump from 2012. After a 4-9 start in which the offense hit just .204 and averaged 3.0 runs per game, the Rays are 30-20 and have scored the most runs per game in the majors.
Yes, there's Evan Longoria, and he's hitting well, but one man does not make an offense. What Maddon and general manager Andrew Friedman have done is construct a team of multi-position platoons. The Rays really have only four regulars: third baseman Longoria, shortstop Yunel Escobar, center fielder Desmond Jennings and first baseman James Loney, although even Loney sits against some left-handers.
Beyond that it's a bunch of interlocking parts that exploit the positional flexibility of the roster. Second baseman/right fielder Ben Zobrist has started 33 games at second and 21 in right (plus four at shortstop) and often changes positions within a game. How rare is his ability to do this? Well, he's the only player in more than 100 years to play at least 50 games at second and 50 games in right field in the same season, and he has done it three times. The only other player to do it was Danny Murphy, back in 1908.
It's so rare that even if you cut the games played down to 35 at each position, you find only four players since World War II to do it: Mark DeRosa in 2008, Tony Phillips in 1992, Bill Russell in 1971 and Billy Goodman in 1951. Basically, Zobrist is a freak, especially since he plays both positions well. But it also takes a manager to think outside the box, and it's easy to forget that Maddon basically created a new position for Zobrist, the hybrid right fielder/second baseman. Longoria is the most valuable player on the roster, but Zobrist is the fulcrum around which the roster operates. Matt Joyce plays right field and left field; Kelly Johnson has played left and second base; Sean Rodriguez has started at four different positions.
Aside from the versatility in the field, it's not an accident the Rays have found success at the plate. Loney was a disappointment with the Dodgers, a first baseman who never hit with the power he flashed early in his career. The Rays didn't see a disappointment, but a guy who could hit right-handers and carry a good glove. With a .327/.387/.519 line, Loney is certainly exceeding expectations, but he did hit a respectable .293/.358/.424 against right-handers from 2009 to 2011 before struggling in 2012. Kelly Johnson had 20-homer seasons in 2010 and 2011; the Rays saw those numbers instead of the guy who struggled in 2012.
There's also room for the offense to improve: Top prospect Wil Myers is heating up in Triple-A, hitting .380 with eight home runs and 27 RBIs over his past 16 games heading into Monday night. The headline on a Tampa Bay Times story on Monday read "Myers looks ready but has nowhere to play," which I don't quite agree with. Designated hitter Luke Scott is hitting .215/.320/.336 -- after not hitting last year -- so it may be time to give up on him. Maddon has somehow found 97 plate appearances for Sam Fuld and his .190 average. So there's pretty clearly room for Myers. Sure, it may mean making Zobrist a -- gasp! -- permanent second baseman, with Ryan Roberts not really contributing, and pushing Joyce or Johnson to the DH slot. Or maybe Zobrist plays more shortstop, like he did at the end of last season.
Either way, Myers should be up soon. I'm pretty sure Maddon can figure out a way to use everybody.
Now, about that pitching staff. ...
How AL All-Star roster is shaping up
June, 11, 2013
Jun 11
12:10
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
We did this All-Star exercise for the National League on Sunday night, so let's do the same thing for the American League: A month out from the All-Star Game, how does the roster potentially shape up?
In choosing the 34-man roster, I go with the fan balloting results for the position players and fill out the roster from there. In reality, the players vote for nine positional backups in the AL (including DH) and the first eight pitchers (five starters and three relievers) -- meaning the AL manager really has only eight spots to fill (and one of those is actually the final man vote on the Internet), from which he must fulfill the requirement of at least one All-Star per club. For the purpose of this review, I pretend the player vote doesn't exist. (All stats entering Monday's games.)
Catcher
Fans: 1. Joe Mauer; 2. Matt Wieters; 3. Carlos Santana.
Should start: Mauer.
Automatic: None.
Mauer is the clear choice here based on his .332/.414/.498 batting line. Or is he? He's started only 37 of his 56 games at catcher. Trouble is, who else gets the nod? Santana has the next-best hitting numbers, but he has started 21 games at first base or DH. Matt Wieters has an OBP about .300. The other candidate is Jason Castro of the Astros, and I have a feeling we may need the backup spot for him. We'll get the backup catcher later.
First base
Fans: 1. Chris Davis; 2. Prince Fielder; 3. Mike Napoli.
Should start: Davis.
Automatic: Fielder.
Davis' .333/.411/.684 line and league-leading 20 home runs should earn him the All-Star start even if he slows down between now and early July. Based on the WAR leaderboards, Fielder has plenty of competition for the backup job, but Fielder is a star and is once again putting up his usual strong numbers at the plate.
Second base
Fans: 1. Robinson Cano; 2. Dustin Pedroia; 3. Ian Kinsler.
Should start: Pedroia.
Automatic: Cano.
I can see the argument for Cano as the starter; he has been the superior player the past couple of years. But it's not really that close right now with Pedroia posting a .383 wOBA and Cano at .357. Heading into Monday night, Baseball-Reference rates Pedroia as the most valuable position player in the AL, while FanGraphs as him as sixth-best.
Third base
Fans: 1. Miguel Cabrera; 2. Manny Machado; 3. Adrian Beltre.
Should start: Cabrera.
Automatic: Evan Longoria, Beltre, Machado.
Now we're going to run into some problems; there are too many great third basemen in the AL right now. Cabrera, Longoria and Machado rank 1-4-5 in FanGraphs WAR and 2-7-3 in Baseball-Reference WAR. Then there's Josh Donaldson, who ranks seventh on FanGraphs and fourth on B-R. Beltre hasn't quite matched those guys, but he's a top-20 player on both lists and is an established star on one of the best teams in the league. For now, Donaldson gets squeezed out.
Shortstop
Fans: 1. J.J. Hardy; 2. Elvis Andrus; 3. Jhonny Peralta.
Should start: Hardy.
Automatic: Peralta.
Not a good year for AL shorstops with Andrus not hitting, Asdrubal Cabrera not playing up to his usual standards and Derek Jeter injured. Hardy and Peralta are clearly the top guys -- flip them if you want -- with Hardy potentially on his way to winning another Gold Glove while leading AL shortstops with 13 home runs and 39 RBIs. Peralta is better than usually given credit for on defense and he's hitting .339, although that is fueled by an unsustainable .418 average on balls in play.
Outfield
Fans: 1. Adam Jones; 2. Mike Trout; 3. Torii Hunter; 4. Nick Markakis; 5. Jose Bautista; 6. Nelson Cruz.
Should start: Trout, Jones, ???.
Automatic: None.
Once you get past Trout and Jones it's difficult find an obvious third starter in an uninspiring group of AL outfielders. Hunter is hitting .300, but without much else to go with it. Heck, Jason Bay has matched him in WAR, so it's hard to argue Hunter's inclusion on the team at all. Hunter probably won't hang on to his top-three spot, but for now he's a starter. Backup candidates includes Brett Gardner and Coco Crisp, both in the top-five in WAR on both sites thanks to their all-around games and improved production at the plate; Bautista; Alex Gordon, a superb player and Gold Glove winner the past two years; Alex Rios, the one White Sox player who is hitting; Daniel Nava, who ranked fifth in the AL in on-base percentage and is tied for third among outfielders with 40 RBIs; and Mark Trumbo. I'd throw in Yoenis Cespedes in the mix as well, despite his inconsistent start.
I'm going to add as my reserves Gardner, Crisp and Gordon (in part because I know I'll need a Royals rep and he's the best candidate). Not exactly a trio that screams "All-Star Game," is it?
Designated hitter
Fans: 1. David Ortiz; 2. Lance Berkman; 3. Mark Reynolds.
Should start: Ortiz.
Automatic: None.
Now to the most ridiculous aspect of the All-Star Game: The AL is forced to include two designated hitters on its roster, even though most teams don't even employ a full-time DH anymore. Reynolds has ended up playing mostly in the field (only 13 games at DH) and while he has 13 home runs and 41 RBIs, he hasn't done much after a hot April. Kendrys Morales has hit pretty well for Seattle but the last thing we need is another Mariner on this All-Star team. Berkman is a nice sentimental choice but not quite All-Star worthy.
So let's go with Edwin Encarnacion, who has 17 home runs and 51 RBIs. Though he has mostly played first base, he is listed on the ballot as a DH. Plus, we need a Blue Jays rep.
Starting pitchers
Starter: Felix Hernandez.
Automatics: Clay Buchholz, Yu Darvish, Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Hisashi Iwakuma, Max Scherzer.
Yes, Buchholz is 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA, so why Felix as the starter? Let us list the reasons: Better strikeout rate, better walk rate, 13 more innings pitched, longer track record of dominance, succeeding even though Mike Morse and Raul Ibanez are playing regularly on "defense" in the outfield.
As for the other starters, Verlander's ERA is a little high at 3.71, but his peripherals are still excellent and he's still Justin Verlander. Iwakuma is 6-1 with a 1.81 ERA, has the lowest OBP allowed of any major league starter and has the best ERA among AL starters since he joined the Seattle rotation in July; in other words, he's legit. Scherzer is 8-0 with 100 Ks and just 20 walks in 83.1 innings; he should be making his first All-Star trip and deservedly so.
Relief pitchers
Automatics: Mariano Rivera.
OK, the rules say the players will vote in three relievers. I see Rivera as the only automatic; I'll add Joe Nathan and Grant Balfour, both with ERAs of less than 2.00 and just one blown save (by Nathan) between them. White Sox setup man Jesse Crain has been terrific with just two runs allowed in 29 innings, but I its hard to find room for a middle reliever with so many good starting pitchers these days.
* * * *
OK, we're at 29 players, so we have five spots to fill. We need a backup catcher plus reps from the Astros and Indians. For the Astros, I'm adding Castro over Jose Altuve; that squeezes out Santana, so I'll add starter Justin Masterson to represent the Indians. We're still two pitches short of our minimum allotment of 13 and the first guy to add is Anibal Sanchez, although he did miss his last start with a stiff shoulder. He's 6-5 but is fourth in the AL with a 2.65 ERA and has 98 strikeouts in 78 innings. Derek Holland has been terrific and so has James Shields despite his 2-6 record, and Bartolo Colon would be a fun choice. Matt Moore pitched himself out of a spot with his recent poor efforts, so I'll guy with an old standby: CC Sabathia.
That leaves one spot left. Josh Donaldson, I just found room for you.
So here's how the 34-man AL roster looks in early June -- or, at least, my AL roster (* starters, via fan balloting):
C Joe Mauer, Twins*
C Jason Castro, Astros
1B Chris Davis, Orioles*
1B Prince Fielder, Tigers
2B Robinson Cano, Yankees*
2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
3B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers*
3B Evan Longoria, Rays
3B Manny Machado, Orioles
3B Adrian Beltre, Rangers
3B Josh Donaldson, A's
SS J.J. Hardy, Orioles*
SS Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
OF Mike Trout, Angels*
OF Adam Jones, Orioles*
OF Torii Hunter, Tigers*
OF Brett Gardner, Yankees
OF Coco Crisp, A's
OF Alex Gordon, Royals
DH David Ortiz, Red Sox*
DH Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
SP Felix Hernandez, Mariners*
SP Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
SP Yu Darvish, Rangers
SP Justin Verlander, Tigers
SP Max Scherzer, Tigers
SP Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
SP Chris Sale, White Sox
SP Anibal Sanchez, Tigers
SP Justin Masterson, Indians
SP CC Sabathia, Yankees
RP Mariano Rivera, Yankees
RP Joe Nathan, Rangers
RP Grant Balfour, A's
Now, there's no way five third basemen make it (although the AL did have five shortstops in 2002 with Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada and Omar Vizquel), so you'll probably see a seventh outfielder or a third catcher (especially since Castro won't finish in the top two in the player voting). If I had to guess, that will probably be Wieters or maybe Santana, who tore it up in April and the player vote usually seems predicated on who had the best April. So if Castro makes it as a third catcher, that bumps one of the third basemen.
And who knows what they'll do in the outfield; Crisp and Gardner aren't going to win the fan vote and are unlikely to finish high enough in the player vote, so the reserves outfielders could be, say, Bautista, Cespedes and Rios.
Last time each AL team drafted an All-Star
May, 28, 2013
May 28
10:30
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
The 2013 MLB draft is coming up, with the first round set for June 6, and when each team makes its first-round selection, each will be drafting an amateur player it believes will turn into an All-Star.
In reality, front offices know the odds of drafting an All-Star player are actually pretty slim. With research help from Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Information, here's the last time each American League team drafted a future All-Star -- although in a couple of cases that player made an All-Star team for a different franchise. We'll cover the National League on Wednesday.
Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters (2007)
Many considered Wieters the best player in the draft, but he fell to the fifth pick because of his agent, Scott Boras. The Rays ended up with David Price with the first pick, and the Royals, Cubs and Pirates saved a little money and ended up with Mike Moustakas, Josh Vitters and Daniel Moskos.
Boston Red Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz (2005)
The Red Sox got Ellsbury with the 23rd pick and Buchholz with the 42nd pick. The Red Sox actually had five first-round picks that year including supplemental picks -- the Ellsbury pick was acquired from the Angels for losing Orlando Cabrera -- and also drafted Craig Hansen, Jed Lowrie and Michael Bowden.
New York Yankees: David Robertson (2006)
The Yankees buy their All-Stars, cry the haters. Well, the haters are right! Robinson Cano came up through the farm system, but other than reliever Robertson, the only players to make an All-Star team in pinstripes since 1990 who were actually drafted by the Yankees were ... yep, Derek Jeter (first round, 1992), Andy Pettitte (22nd round, 1990) and Jorge Posada (24th round, 1990). Oh, plus Phil Hughes, who did make the All-Star team in 2010. But you remembered that.
Tampa Bay Rays: David Price (2007)
For all the praise given to the Rays' drafting acumen, they've had the No. 1 overall pick four times and have busted on three of those -- Josh Hamilton (who never played for Tampa Bay), Delmon Young (at least they traded him before everyone realized he stunk) and Tim Beckham, who followed Price in 2008 and has yet to reach the majors.
Toronto Blue Jays: Ricky Romero (2005)
Romero has suddenly lost the ability to throw strikes, which seems especially painful now because 2005 was one of the most loaded drafts in history -- Romero went sixth overall, one pick before Troy Tulowitzki.
Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale (2010)
Many teams didn't believe Sale would have the durability to make it as a starter, but not only did Sale ascend quickly to the majors but he developed into one of the best pitchers in the game. Six pitchers were selected ahead of Sale, and although one was Matt Harvey and another was Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon, the other four were Drew Pomeranz, Barret Loux, Karsten Whitson and Deck McGuire.
Cleveland Indians: CC Sabathia (1998)
It has been an amazing 15 years since the Indians have drafted an All-Star. Since Sabathia was last an Indians All-Star in 2007, Cleveland's All-Stars have included Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore (acquired from Montreal in the Bartolo Colon trade), Victor Martinez (a farm system product from Venezuela), Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez (signed out of the Dominican Republic) and, the past two years, Chris Perez and Asdrubal Cabrera, acquired from the Cardinals and Mariners.
Detroit Tigers: Alex Avila (2008)
A fifth-round pick out of Alabama, Avila was an All-Star just three years later. However, his 2012 and 2013 follow-up seasons haven't come close to his 2011 season, when he finished 12th in the MVP vote.
Kansas City Royals: Aaron Crow (2009)
Crow made the All-Star team as a rookie reliever in 2011 thanks to 34 good innings. By the way, the Royals haven't had two All-Stars since 2003, when Mike Sweeney and Mike MacDougal made it -- also the last time the Royals finished with a winning record. Is this a bad time for a Ken Harvey joke?
Minnesota Twins: Evan Meek (2002)
Joe Mauer was drafted first overall in 2001 and since then has been a draft spell as cold as a Minnesota winter. That's how you go from six division titles in nine years to back-to-back seasons of 99 and 96 losses. That's also the price you pay when you spend a decade never drafting higher than 14th. Meek was actually released by the Twins before making the All-Star team as the Pirates' rep in 2010.
Houston Astros: Ben Zobrist and Hunter Pence (2004)
Zobrist was a sixth-round pick from Dallas Baptist but the Astros traded him for Aubrey Huff before he reached the majors. What, you don't remember the Aubrey Huff Astros years, either?
Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout (2009)
The last time the Angels signed a former All-Star to a megamillion free-agent contract: 2013.
Oakland Athletics: Andrew Bailey (2006)
The A's had only one All-Star last year -- reliever Ryan Cook -- but even then it was a gerrymandered roster that Billy Beane put together. Of the 11 players who compiled 2.0 WAR or better, the only one the A's drafted was A.J. Griffin.
Seattle Mariners: Adam Jones (2003)
Jones is a two-time All-Star with the Orioles, making J.J. Putz (1999) the last All-Star for the Mariners who made the All-Star team as a Mariner. And the last position player? Alex Rodriguez, 2000 All-Star, 1993 draftee.
Texas Rangers: Ian Kinsler (2003)
This might come as a surprise, given the Rangers' success in recent years and the praise given their farm system, but their All-Star reps have actually represented some great trades the team made (Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison) and some key free agents (Adrian Beltre, Yu Darvish, Joe Nathan).
In reality, front offices know the odds of drafting an All-Star player are actually pretty slim. With research help from Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Information, here's the last time each American League team drafted a future All-Star -- although in a couple of cases that player made an All-Star team for a different franchise. We'll cover the National League on Wednesday.
Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters (2007)
Many considered Wieters the best player in the draft, but he fell to the fifth pick because of his agent, Scott Boras. The Rays ended up with David Price with the first pick, and the Royals, Cubs and Pirates saved a little money and ended up with Mike Moustakas, Josh Vitters and Daniel Moskos.
Boston Red Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz (2005)
The Red Sox got Ellsbury with the 23rd pick and Buchholz with the 42nd pick. The Red Sox actually had five first-round picks that year including supplemental picks -- the Ellsbury pick was acquired from the Angels for losing Orlando Cabrera -- and also drafted Craig Hansen, Jed Lowrie and Michael Bowden.
New York Yankees: David Robertson (2006)
The Yankees buy their All-Stars, cry the haters. Well, the haters are right! Robinson Cano came up through the farm system, but other than reliever Robertson, the only players to make an All-Star team in pinstripes since 1990 who were actually drafted by the Yankees were ... yep, Derek Jeter (first round, 1992), Andy Pettitte (22nd round, 1990) and Jorge Posada (24th round, 1990). Oh, plus Phil Hughes, who did make the All-Star team in 2010. But you remembered that.
Tampa Bay Rays: David Price (2007)
For all the praise given to the Rays' drafting acumen, they've had the No. 1 overall pick four times and have busted on three of those -- Josh Hamilton (who never played for Tampa Bay), Delmon Young (at least they traded him before everyone realized he stunk) and Tim Beckham, who followed Price in 2008 and has yet to reach the majors.
Toronto Blue Jays: Ricky Romero (2005)
Romero has suddenly lost the ability to throw strikes, which seems especially painful now because 2005 was one of the most loaded drafts in history -- Romero went sixth overall, one pick before Troy Tulowitzki.
Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale (2010)
Many teams didn't believe Sale would have the durability to make it as a starter, but not only did Sale ascend quickly to the majors but he developed into one of the best pitchers in the game. Six pitchers were selected ahead of Sale, and although one was Matt Harvey and another was Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon, the other four were Drew Pomeranz, Barret Loux, Karsten Whitson and Deck McGuire.
Cleveland Indians: CC Sabathia (1998)
It has been an amazing 15 years since the Indians have drafted an All-Star. Since Sabathia was last an Indians All-Star in 2007, Cleveland's All-Stars have included Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore (acquired from Montreal in the Bartolo Colon trade), Victor Martinez (a farm system product from Venezuela), Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez (signed out of the Dominican Republic) and, the past two years, Chris Perez and Asdrubal Cabrera, acquired from the Cardinals and Mariners.
Detroit Tigers: Alex Avila (2008)
A fifth-round pick out of Alabama, Avila was an All-Star just three years later. However, his 2012 and 2013 follow-up seasons haven't come close to his 2011 season, when he finished 12th in the MVP vote.
Kansas City Royals: Aaron Crow (2009)
Crow made the All-Star team as a rookie reliever in 2011 thanks to 34 good innings. By the way, the Royals haven't had two All-Stars since 2003, when Mike Sweeney and Mike MacDougal made it -- also the last time the Royals finished with a winning record. Is this a bad time for a Ken Harvey joke?
Minnesota Twins: Evan Meek (2002)
Joe Mauer was drafted first overall in 2001 and since then has been a draft spell as cold as a Minnesota winter. That's how you go from six division titles in nine years to back-to-back seasons of 99 and 96 losses. That's also the price you pay when you spend a decade never drafting higher than 14th. Meek was actually released by the Twins before making the All-Star team as the Pirates' rep in 2010.
Houston Astros: Ben Zobrist and Hunter Pence (2004)
Zobrist was a sixth-round pick from Dallas Baptist but the Astros traded him for Aubrey Huff before he reached the majors. What, you don't remember the Aubrey Huff Astros years, either?
Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout (2009)
The last time the Angels signed a former All-Star to a megamillion free-agent contract: 2013.
Oakland Athletics: Andrew Bailey (2006)
The A's had only one All-Star last year -- reliever Ryan Cook -- but even then it was a gerrymandered roster that Billy Beane put together. Of the 11 players who compiled 2.0 WAR or better, the only one the A's drafted was A.J. Griffin.
Seattle Mariners: Adam Jones (2003)
Jones is a two-time All-Star with the Orioles, making J.J. Putz (1999) the last All-Star for the Mariners who made the All-Star team as a Mariner. And the last position player? Alex Rodriguez, 2000 All-Star, 1993 draftee.
Texas Rangers: Ian Kinsler (2003)
This might come as a surprise, given the Rangers' success in recent years and the praise given their farm system, but their All-Star reps have actually represented some great trades the team made (Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison) and some key free agents (Adrian Beltre, Yu Darvish, Joe Nathan).
Wrap: Big problems for O's, Indians, Rays
May, 27, 2013
May 27
12:45
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
This whole closer thing is a tough business. Perfection isn't just expected; it's demanded. Slip up once and it's a headline; slip up twice and fans are ready to trade you to Topeka. Slip up three times and your manager usually starts questioning your intestinal fortitude. As the late, great Dan Quisenberry once said, "A manager uses a relief pitcher like a six-shooter: He fires until it's empty then takes the gun and throws it at the villain."
The trouble with closers, and the decisions managers have to make when they start to struggle: When do you know if the chamber is empty?
Three playoff contenders suffered wrenching defeats this weekend when their closers blew multirun leads. Blown saves in one-run games are bad enough; blowing leads of two or three runs is generally unacceptable. The victims, or saboteurs if you prefer: Jim Johnson of the Baltimore Orioles, Chris Perez of the Cleveland Indians, and Fernando Rodney of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Here's what happened:
- The Orioles led the Blue Jays 5-2 on Sunday entering the bottom of the ninth, but Edwin Encarnacion doubled, Adam Lind grounded a single up the middle and J.P. Arencibia lined a base hit to right. A fly out, walk and fielder's choice made it 5-4 with runners at the corners and two outs. Light-hitting Munenori Kawasaki was at the plate. Johnson threw Kawasaki six consecutive fastballs -- six of his signature mid-90s sinker -- but the sixth one didn't sink much. The pitch hung out over the middle of the plate, and Kawasaki lined it into left center for a game-winning two-run double. The Orioles lost just one game last season they led heading into the ninth inning; they already have five such defeats in 2013. Johnson has lost three of those, and he has two other defeats, as well.
- The Indians also led 5-2 entering the bottom of the ninth, ready to salvage a split of a four-game series at Fenway Park. Dustin Pedroia walked to lead off, and, as you can probably guess, bad things happen when you walk the leadoff batter with a three-run lead. David Ortiz doubled. A groundout scored a run, Ortiz stole third and then another groundout made it 5-4. But now the bases were empty and Perez had two outs. He walked Jonny Gomes, who is hitting .200 without a homer against right-handed pitchers; Stephen Drew lined a base hit to right; and Perez walked light-hitting Jose Iglesias. Terry Francona had finally had enough and brought in Joe Smith to face Jacoby Ellsbury, who won it with a double to left center. It was the first game Cleveland lost entering the ninth inning and just the second loss for the bullpen, but Perez has been shaky of late. Last week, he blew a two-run lead in the ninth to Seattle only to get the win, and two days later, he gave up the go-ahead run in the ninth only to be rescued again as Cleveland won in extra innings. That's seven runs his past three outings.
- Rodney blew his fifth save on Saturday night, a 3-1 lead against the Yankees, who won in 11 innings. The Rays have now lost three games they led entering the ninth (and five they led entering the eighth). Last season, when Rodney allowed just nine runs all season and the entire pen was stellar, those figures were two and three.
So that's the play-by-play of disaster. That all three are struggling isn't necessarily a big surprise. Their Proven Closer labels were a little dubious entering the season, especially for Johnson and Rodney, who each had just one full season as a closer under the belt. In fact, it's time we take the magic out of the whole "closer mystique" nonsense that everybody likes to pretend exists. The fact that guys like Jason Grilli of the Pirates and Edward Mujica of the Cardinals are doing just fine is another indication that closers are often lucked into, not made.
There are few great ones -- Mariano Rivera, of course, and Craig Kimbrel (although even he has three blown saves) -- but the truth is that for most of these guys there's a slender margin between invincibility and Tom Niedenfuer. That's exactly what we're seeing with Johnson, Rodney and Perez this season.
Johnson is a pitch-to-contact closer whom sabermetric analysts predicted would be hard-pressed to match his big 2012 campaign when he saved 51 games. His strikeout rate is up, but that's because he's throwing more pitches up in the zone; a sinker up in the zone is a bad pitch. Last season, Johnson's ground ball rate was 62 percent; this season, it's 42 percent. Thus, he's getting hit more.
Perez was an All-Star the past two seasons, but his 3.45 ERA during that span is hardly elite material for a closer. He's always been a guy who lives on the edge, a decent reliever who got the ninth-inning role. His heat map shows a lot more pitches up in the zone this season, as well -- he's already allowed five doubles, four home runs and 10 walks in 16⅔ innings.
Rodney's implosion is probably the least surprising of the three. From 2007 to 2011, his ERA was more than 4.00 each season. Last season, he suddenly developed the perfect feel for his changeup to go along with fastball command, and batters hit .071 off it with 55 Ks and five walks. This season, the fastball command hasn't been there, and neither has the dominance on the changeup. He's already walked 18 batters (including 10 on changeups) after walking 15 all of last season. After giving up four extra-base hits in 2012, that total is already at nine. In other words, instead of getting Dennis Eckersley in his prime, the Rays are back to getting Fernando Rodney.
The managers of these clubs have some difficult decisions. Because all three have the Proven Closer label, how many chances do they get? And just shuffling them into the eighth-inning role and promoting the setup guy to closer doesn't necessarily solve anything; they can blow games just as easily in the eighth as in the ninth. Orioles manager Buck Showalter has the best options, as relievers Tommy Hunter, Darren O'Day and Brian Matusz have all pitched well.
"We should be getting on the plane with three wins here, but I can't hang my head too long," Johnson said after the game. "It's going to hurt for a little bit, and it should."
For now, it appears Johnson will keep his job despite four blown saves in his past five appearances. But no matter what happens the rest of the season, the ninth inning has already been a disaster for the Orioles. Last season, the average team lost 3.7 games it lead heading into the ninth. As mentioned, that's already five such defeats for the O's this season. And each one has hurt a little bit.
REST OF THE WEEKEND
Three stars
1. Anibal Sanchez, Tigers. Sanchez lost his no-hit bid on Friday when Joe Mauer singled with one out in the ninth. After Detroit acquired Sanchez from the Marlins last season, his strong performance in the playoffs led the Tigers to sign him to an $80 million contract that seemed a little ambitious considering his 3.65 career ERA and the fact that he'd never pitched 200 innings in a season. So far, however, Sanchez has been much better than a midrotation starter, as he's increased his strikeout rate from 20.4 percent a season ago to 30.6 percent now. While he's getting more strikeouts with all four of his pitches, the biggest increase has been with his fastball, which had a strikeout rate of 13.8 percent on plate appearances ending with the pitch in 2012 but 28 percent this season. The command of his fastball -- especially on the outside corner to righties -- has made his other pitches even more effective.
2. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals. For a guy who is "struggling," Strasburg has looked pretty good of late. He allowed just one run in eight innings against the Phillies on Sunday. In his past three starts, he's allowed four runs and just 13 hits in 23 innings. He's recorded 39 groundouts and 15 fly outs over those three starts. He's still seeking his first double-digit strikeout game of the season but still has 71 Ks in 72⅓ innings. While his ERA of 2.49 is a little misleading -- he's allowed nine unearned runs -- his recent outings should alleviate the minor concerns about his early performance.
3. Pete Kozma, Cardinals. How to beat Clayton Kershaw? The Cardinals shortstop went 4-for-4 on Sunday with three doubles; three of those hits came off Kershaw, including a three-run double and rally-starting two-base hit, as the Cardinals won 5-3.
Clutch performance of the weekend
Of our many walk-off heroes, how about Chris Young of the A's? The A's trailed the Astros 5-3 on Friday. Jose Veras walked John Jaso and Coco Crisp on 3-2 pitches, setting the stage for Young with two outs. Young did this on a 1-1 curveball. The A's are now five games over .500 -- thanks in large part to a 9-0 record against the Astros, who they've outscored 68 to 31. Hey, if they go 19-0 against the Astros, it's going to be hard to deny them another trip to the playoffs.
Best game
The Giants fell behind 4-0 to the Rockies on Saturday but chipped away and tied the game in the seventh. Manager Bruce Bochy got ejected in the eighth when Marco Scutaro was thrown out at third base, and the Giants escaped a two-on, nobody-out jam in the ninth. Troy Tulowitzki homered off a Sergio Romo slider in the 10th. But then, after the usually steady Rafael Betancourt walked Brandon Crawford, Angel Pagan lofted a deep fly to right center that kicked off the wall and, well, Pagan ran 360 feet around the bases, helped a bit by a lazy relay throw from Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler.
Hitter on the rise: Matt Dominguez, Astros
When the Astros acquired Dominguez last season from the Marlins for Carlos Lee, everyone knew he had a major league caliber glove at third base. After going homerless in his first 33 games, doubts began increasing about his bat. Dominguez, however, has now popped seven homers in his past 13 games. His season line still needs some work, especially in the on-base department (.279), but he's starting to look like a positive in this dismal Astros season.
Pitcher on the rise: Jason Vargas, Angels
Don't look now, but the Angels have won eight in a row and are a respectable 23-27. Did they start too late, just like last season? Vargas is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in May, allowing nine runs in five starts. The Angels' next 10 games are against the Dodgers, Astros and Cubs. If they're a couple games over .500 at the end of those 10 games, they'll be back in the wild-card race.
Team on the rise: White Sox
Besides the Angels and Pirates (last week's team on the rise), the hottest club is the White Sox. We keep wanting to count out the South Siders, but, somehow, they find a way to hang in there. They don't score much, but they've won nine of 12 the old-fashioned way: with starting pitching. The starters have a 3.25 ERA over those 12 games, and that despite ace Chris Sale missing his last start with mild tendinitis in his shoulder. He's scheduled to start Tuesday against the Cubs.
Team on the fall: Mariners
They pulled out an extra-inning victory over the Rangers on Sunday, but that ended an eight-game losing streak. Starters not named Hernandez or Iwakuma have combined for a 6.78 ERA, which essentially means three-fifths of the Seattle rotation is below replacement level. The Jesus Montero catching experiment was finally, mercifully, brought to an end as he was demoted to Triple-A to see if he can rediscover the supposed hitting prowess that once made him a top-10 prospect (and play some first base). Dustin Ackley continues to be awful and Michael Saunders is three for his past 37. Things are so bad that Mariners fans are excited about Justin Smoak and his .698 OPS.
James Loney has recently received a lot of ink as Andrew Friedman's latest rags-to-riches signing for the Tampa Bay Rays. Following a terrible season in 2012, the 29-year-old has the fifth-highest batting average in the majors thus far, at .350 -- he's also second on the Rays in on-base and slugging percentage. But while Kelly Johnson's name is not near the top of any leaderboards, he's enjoying an equally impressive career revival under St. Pete's Big Top.
Coming off two disappointing seasons Johnson found a home with the Rays this winter. At the time of the signing his offensive profile seemed like a fit, even if his primary position in the field did not. An infielder by trade, Johnson joined a crowded group of up-the-middle players in Tampa Bay -- including his former double-play partner in Atlanta and Toronto, Yunel Escobar.
With limited resources, the Rays cannot operate in a positional box. If talent is available at a reasonable price, they will acquire it and worry about where to house it later. Both Sean Rodriguez and Ben Zobrist have seasons in which they have appeared in more than 100 games while splitting time at seven different positions. Changing roles is not limited to internal players, either. In 2012, free-agent signee Jeff Keppinger appeared in 90 games at first base, third base and designated hitter, this after spending the bulk of his career at second base and shortstop. So far, Johnson has primarily played left field for the Rays. He is not necessarily new to the outfield, but went seven full seasons between appearances at the position.
Johnson has just five starts at his customary second base, and he made his first professional start at first base this season. Although his speed is lacking and his route running needing some fine tuning, he has proved to be playable in left, especially his arm, as he ranks sixth in the American League in outfield assists.
Offensively, the 31-year old arrived to Tampa Bay with a reputation as a bat-first player with good power and higher-than-average strikeout rates. Johnson has showed a bit of both in his first 40 games with the team. Currently, he is second on the team in home runs with eight. His current .227 isolated power would be a career-high.
Johnson is still punching out in a quarter of his plate appearances. This despite the fact that he is working with a tighter strike zone. He has lessened the amount of swings he takes on pitches out of the strike zone, which coincides with a drop in swing-and-misses. He is currently eighth in the league in pitches per plate appearance. Meanwhile, the more cautious approach has led to an increased amount of called strike threes.
ESPN Stats & InfoJohnson had a much wider strike zone in 2011 and 2012.
ESPN Stats & InfoJohnson is being more selective in his swings in 2013.
Not uncommon of most hitters, Johnson enjoys more success against fastballs than any other pitch. However, he has tweaked his process on other pitches, leading to improved results. Johnson is still a bit aggressive on non-fastballs -- especially with two strikes -- but has lowered his chase and whiff rates by nearly 10 percent on these pitches. (He is not the only Rays' hitter taking more targeted swings this season: At the Process Report we have noted changes in approach by free swingers Sean Rodriguez and Ryan Roberts as well.) Johnnson is hitting .302 on breaking balls (curveballs and sliders) and offspeed pitches (changeups and splitters) in 2013. In 2011 and 2012, that average was just .174.
In addition to the philosophical shift, there appears to be a slight physical adjustment as well. Take a look to the right at the side-by-side images at roughly the same point in the pitcher's delivery.
The one on the left is from late 2012. The one on the right is from this month. Note at the end of last season, Johnson had a more closed stance with his hands near his chin as the pitcher's hands break. This year, he has opened his stance and dropped his hands. The open stance is something that he has used in the past. This should allow him to get in the hitting position and provide a better look at incoming pitches.
Both Johnson and Loney will hit the open market once again this winter. Because of his age, glove— -- and to this point of the season -- better overall production, Loney seems likelier to benefit from his renaissance with Tampa Bay. That said, if Johnson continues to play well on both sides of the ball, he might also net a decent contract thanks in part to added defensive flexibility and a narrower approach at the plate.
Tommy Rancel writes regularly about the Rays at The Process Report.
Coming off two disappointing seasons Johnson found a home with the Rays this winter. At the time of the signing his offensive profile seemed like a fit, even if his primary position in the field did not. An infielder by trade, Johnson joined a crowded group of up-the-middle players in Tampa Bay -- including his former double-play partner in Atlanta and Toronto, Yunel Escobar.
With limited resources, the Rays cannot operate in a positional box. If talent is available at a reasonable price, they will acquire it and worry about where to house it later. Both Sean Rodriguez and Ben Zobrist have seasons in which they have appeared in more than 100 games while splitting time at seven different positions. Changing roles is not limited to internal players, either. In 2012, free-agent signee Jeff Keppinger appeared in 90 games at first base, third base and designated hitter, this after spending the bulk of his career at second base and shortstop. So far, Johnson has primarily played left field for the Rays. He is not necessarily new to the outfield, but went seven full seasons between appearances at the position.
Johnson has just five starts at his customary second base, and he made his first professional start at first base this season. Although his speed is lacking and his route running needing some fine tuning, he has proved to be playable in left, especially his arm, as he ranks sixth in the American League in outfield assists.
Offensively, the 31-year old arrived to Tampa Bay with a reputation as a bat-first player with good power and higher-than-average strikeout rates. Johnson has showed a bit of both in his first 40 games with the team. Currently, he is second on the team in home runs with eight. His current .227 isolated power would be a career-high.
Johnson is still punching out in a quarter of his plate appearances. This despite the fact that he is working with a tighter strike zone. He has lessened the amount of swings he takes on pitches out of the strike zone, which coincides with a drop in swing-and-misses. He is currently eighth in the league in pitches per plate appearance. Meanwhile, the more cautious approach has led to an increased amount of called strike threes.
ESPN Stats & InfoJohnson had a much wider strike zone in 2011 and 2012.
ESPN Stats & InfoJohnson is being more selective in his swings in 2013.Not uncommon of most hitters, Johnson enjoys more success against fastballs than any other pitch. However, he has tweaked his process on other pitches, leading to improved results. Johnson is still a bit aggressive on non-fastballs -- especially with two strikes -- but has lowered his chase and whiff rates by nearly 10 percent on these pitches. (He is not the only Rays' hitter taking more targeted swings this season: At the Process Report we have noted changes in approach by free swingers Sean Rodriguez and Ryan Roberts as well.) Johnnson is hitting .302 on breaking balls (curveballs and sliders) and offspeed pitches (changeups and splitters) in 2013. In 2011 and 2012, that average was just .174.

ESPN Stats & InfoJohnson has changed his stance from 2012.
The one on the left is from late 2012. The one on the right is from this month. Note at the end of last season, Johnson had a more closed stance with his hands near his chin as the pitcher's hands break. This year, he has opened his stance and dropped his hands. The open stance is something that he has used in the past. This should allow him to get in the hitting position and provide a better look at incoming pitches.
Both Johnson and Loney will hit the open market once again this winter. Because of his age, glove— -- and to this point of the season -- better overall production, Loney seems likelier to benefit from his renaissance with Tampa Bay. That said, if Johnson continues to play well on both sides of the ball, he might also net a decent contract thanks in part to added defensive flexibility and a narrower approach at the plate.
Tommy Rancel writes regularly about the Rays at The Process Report.
The first-place Cleveland Indians strode into Fenway Park on Thursday night to face the Boston Red Sox, which normally wouldn't be significant but the return of Tribe skipper Francona to the place he managed to two World Series titles in his eight-year stint made it so. The Fenway faithful gave Francona a nice welcome, then watched in vain as the Sox got blasted 12-3 in the first game of this four-game set. The rest of the weekend should be a bit more competitive, and watch lefties Scott Kazmir and Jon Lester meet up Saturday afternoon. Kazmir lifetime at Fenway: 6-5 with a 3.90 ERA, but a 1.56 WHIP. Here's what else to keep an eye on this final May weekend.
1. Lying in wait: The Tampa Bay Rays enter the weekend in fourth place in the tough AL East, but still on the positive side of the .500 mark. Manager Joe Maddon adjusted his rotation a bit to face the rival New York Yankees, as right-hander Alex Cobb was moved up to pitch Sunday. The Rays took two of three from the Yankees at home in April, with Matt Moore and Cobb winning. Moore, leading the bigs with an 8-0 record, faces CC Sabathia on Saturday in the signature matchup. As colleague Dave Schoenfield pointed out recently, the Rays remain the team to beat in the division, and I certainly concur, having predicted a World Series title. It can still happen.
2. It's our stadium! For years Philadelphia Phillies fans populated the stands in Washington when their team came to town, but Nationals management had enough. They wanted to take back their home stadium in what used to be a one-sided rivalry, and it certainly worked last season. This will be the first meeting of the season between these NL East teams, with surprisingly just one game separating them in the standings. Does it say more about the Phils or the Nats? Has to be the Nats, right? The Phillies avoid Stephen Strasburg, the Nats miss Cliff Lee, and we'll see if a frustrated Cole Hamels can avoid his eighth loss Sunday.
3. Meanwhile, out West: Two of the three teams tied atop the NL West with 26-21 records meet this weekend. Last weekend the confident, contending San Francisco Giants lost three of four at Coors Field to the confident, contending Colorado Rockies, and the defending champs get a quick shot at revenge. Who would have guessed the Rockies would have a better team ERA than the Giants? Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito are scheduled for action this weekend, and should fare better than Cain, Zito and Madison Bumgarner did in Denver. Ultimately the Rockies will have trouble keeping up as the summer goes on, but they can make yet another May statement.
4. Taking sides: The Milwaukee Brewers have owned the Pittsburgh Pirates in recent seasons, tallying a 36-12 head-to-head mark from 2010-12, and winning nine consecutive games in one stretch until the Pirates stopped it a few weeks ago. The NL Central rivals meet this weekend with one of them contenders, the other disappointing. The Pirates were contenders for half of last season as well before falling apart. Are they better equipped to make September relevant in 2013? Perhaps not, but they sure look to be in better condition than the Brewers, dead last in the NL in ERA. The Buccos are second-best.
5. L.A. story: And we finish with the franchise spending more money on its players than any other this season, the last-place Los Angeles Dodgers. And guess what! The manager is on the hot seat. Well, of course it's Don Mattingly's fault that Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley and Hanley Ramirez got hurt, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Dee Gordon can't hit and the team lacks proper depth at third base and in the rotation. Can Yasiel Puig save the day? Puh-leeze. The Dodgers and their embattled leader host the St. Louis Cardinals this weekend, with Sunday's Shelby Miller-Clayton Kershaw matchup potentially memorable, and hopefully Mattingly is still around next week.
Enjoy your weekend!
1. Lying in wait: The Tampa Bay Rays enter the weekend in fourth place in the tough AL East, but still on the positive side of the .500 mark. Manager Joe Maddon adjusted his rotation a bit to face the rival New York Yankees, as right-hander Alex Cobb was moved up to pitch Sunday. The Rays took two of three from the Yankees at home in April, with Matt Moore and Cobb winning. Moore, leading the bigs with an 8-0 record, faces CC Sabathia on Saturday in the signature matchup. As colleague Dave Schoenfield pointed out recently, the Rays remain the team to beat in the division, and I certainly concur, having predicted a World Series title. It can still happen.
2. It's our stadium! For years Philadelphia Phillies fans populated the stands in Washington when their team came to town, but Nationals management had enough. They wanted to take back their home stadium in what used to be a one-sided rivalry, and it certainly worked last season. This will be the first meeting of the season between these NL East teams, with surprisingly just one game separating them in the standings. Does it say more about the Phils or the Nats? Has to be the Nats, right? The Phillies avoid Stephen Strasburg, the Nats miss Cliff Lee, and we'll see if a frustrated Cole Hamels can avoid his eighth loss Sunday.
3. Meanwhile, out West: Two of the three teams tied atop the NL West with 26-21 records meet this weekend. Last weekend the confident, contending San Francisco Giants lost three of four at Coors Field to the confident, contending Colorado Rockies, and the defending champs get a quick shot at revenge. Who would have guessed the Rockies would have a better team ERA than the Giants? Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito are scheduled for action this weekend, and should fare better than Cain, Zito and Madison Bumgarner did in Denver. Ultimately the Rockies will have trouble keeping up as the summer goes on, but they can make yet another May statement.
4. Taking sides: The Milwaukee Brewers have owned the Pittsburgh Pirates in recent seasons, tallying a 36-12 head-to-head mark from 2010-12, and winning nine consecutive games in one stretch until the Pirates stopped it a few weeks ago. The NL Central rivals meet this weekend with one of them contenders, the other disappointing. The Pirates were contenders for half of last season as well before falling apart. Are they better equipped to make September relevant in 2013? Perhaps not, but they sure look to be in better condition than the Brewers, dead last in the NL in ERA. The Buccos are second-best.
5. L.A. story: And we finish with the franchise spending more money on its players than any other this season, the last-place Los Angeles Dodgers. And guess what! The manager is on the hot seat. Well, of course it's Don Mattingly's fault that Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley and Hanley Ramirez got hurt, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Dee Gordon can't hit and the team lacks proper depth at third base and in the rotation. Can Yasiel Puig save the day? Puh-leeze. The Dodgers and their embattled leader host the St. Louis Cardinals this weekend, with Sunday's Shelby Miller-Clayton Kershaw matchup potentially memorable, and hopefully Mattingly is still around next week.
Enjoy your weekend!
Mariners pair top 1-2 pitching duo in majors
May, 21, 2013
May 21
12:20
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Major league baseball is so deep in quality starting pitching that you could probably make the case for nine or 10 different combinations as the best pair going right now. Here are my top five:
1. Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
This may surprise you, but Hernandez and Iwakuma have the highest WAR (wins above replacement) of any pair of pitchers in the majors. And before we write off Iwakuma's outstanding start to the season as a fluke, here are the American League ERA leaders going back to last July 1, when Iwakuma joined the Mariners' rotation:
Iwakuma: 2.54
Hernandez: 2.69
Justin Verlander: 2.77
James Shields: 2.86
Hiroki Kuroda: 2.97
So the M's have Hernandez, one of the best pitchers in baseball, a guy who has pitched 230-plus innings the past four seasons and who has been as effective as any starter in the game for nearly a year. And they have Iwakuma, who will give up some home runs, but he's walked only 11 batters in 10 starts and his splitter has turned into a wipeout pitch -- batters are hitting .184 off it with one home run, 35 strikeouts and two walks in 79 plate appearances ending with the pitch. If the Mariners fall out of the wild-card race, maybe they'll look to trade Iwakuma while his stock is high, but I fear that would be a mistake and they would be making a Doug Fister-like trade that backfires. Iwakuma is for real.
2. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez, Tigers
The Tigers' rotation is so good that you could also slot Fister or Max Scherzer here and have an equally terrific duo. I still like Scherzer as the club's No. 2 as the season progresses, but Sanchez has been terrific so far and has ramped up his strikeout rate to new highs, up more than 9 percent from last season (68 in 55.1 innings). His ERA is 2.77, and while his home run rate is probably unsustainable (just two allowed), his BABIP is too high on the other end at .356. Moving forward, those two results should cancel each other out as they normalize and Sanchez should remain outstanding.
3. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, Dodgers
Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game right now -- he's gone 22 consecutive starts allowing three earned runs or fewer, the longest such streak since Pedro Martinez had 23 in 1999-2000 -- and Greinke would be the ace of many teams. Now that Greinke is back from his broken collarbone, we'll see if everyone has written off the Dodgers too quickly.
4. CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees
Somehow, Kuroda still flies under the radar despite playing in New York. He's not flashy, but batters are hitting .201 AVG/.254 OBP/.292 SLG against him. There's some luck going on here since his .229 BABIP will probably rise, but his slider has been untouchable: opponents are 8-for-61 (.131) against it without an extra-base hit. Meanwhile, Sabathia has lost some velocity off his fastball, but he pitches down in the zone more, throws strikes and keeps the Yankees in games. Since his pitch counts have run high at times he's averaging only 6.5 innings per start, so maybe his days as a 230-inning workhorse are over (he missed a few starts last year, remember, and pitched just 200 innings). Remember as well that these guys have to pitch half their games at Yankee Stadium, where routine fly balls can land in the right-field stands.
5. Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Yes, young guns Shelby Miller and Matt Harvey have seemingly pushed Strasburg out of the limelight, but he's still pretty good and still throws hard (best average fastball velocity among starting pitchers). Nonetheless, he's been surpassed by Zimmermann as the club's ace. Zimmerman doesn't rack up the huge strikeout totals so the advanced metrics like FIP and xFIP suggest his ERA will rise (well, it will, since it's at 1.62 right now). But he throws strikes with Maddux-like precision (nine walks in nine starts) and while there were concerns heading into the season about his ability to go deep into games, his efficiency has allowed him to toss three complete games without throwing more than 107 pitches. He's 7-2 and could be 9-0 -- in the two games he lost, he allowed two runs.
That's my top five, and I couldn't find room for Adam Wainwright and Miller, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, Chris Sale and Jake Peavy, Matt Moore and David Price, Matt Harvey and anybody. It's a pitcher's game right now, that's for sure.
A quick warning about Jurickson Profar's call to the majors to replace the disabled Ian Kinsler: Do not expect Mike Trout; do not expect Bryce Harper; do not expect Manny Machado.
Yes, the performance of those three wunderkinds has, unfortunately, raised the expectations for all prospects, especially one deemed the best in the game entering this season.
In time, maybe Profar joins them as generational talents (I can see the corny nickname already: "The Four Tops"), but it would be unfair to believe Profar will hit like they have, at least right off the bat. Remember, he's only 20, and, while he held his own in Triple-A, hitting .278/.370/.438 with four home runs, HE'S ONLY 20 YEARS OLD. Most 20 year olds are still learning how to hit curveballs in the South Atlantic League.
That said, I'm excited to see the kid play for a couple weeks. While Profar didn't start Sunday and Ron Washington said he'll split time with Leury Garcia, I'm not sure the Rangers recalled Profar to play three games a week. Profar has a good approach at the plate, particularly for a kid so young, drawing 21 walks in 37 games at Round Rock, so that's a good sign that he'll come up to the majors and not get in trouble by being overly aggressive. And, as Washington likes to say, "He's not afraid of the game."
Kinsler had been one of the best players in the league so far, hitting .302 with seven home runs, 20 RBIs and 24 runs, so the Rangers will miss his production from the leadoff spot. But they have a comfortable lead in the AL West and there was no reason to push him through the injury.
Profar is likely headed back to Triple-A once Kinsler's DL stint ends. Of course, who knows, maybe Profar hits so well he leaves the Rangers no choice but to find a regular spot for him. I don't think that will happen, but I wouldn't be that eager to bet against him, either.
REST OF THE WEEKEND
Three stars
1. Matt Joyce, Tampa Bay Rays. Down 4-0 after one inning to the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, Joyce hit a two-run homer in the third to get the Rays closer and then hit a two-run, go-ahead double in the ninth. On Sunday, Joyce's homer provided the insurance run in a 3-1 win as the Rays swept the O's.
2. Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies. The Rockies had many heroes in winning three of four against the San Francisco Giants at home, but Fowler jumpstarted the offense all weekend with 10 hits and seven runs scored. Not a bad four days: He raised his average from .252 to .286.
3. Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians. Masterson tossed his second consecutive scoreless start, striking out a season-high 11 in seven innings against the Seattle Mariners on Sunday in a 6-0 victory. Masterson improved to 7-2 while lowering his ERA to 2.83. This is a different Masterson than we've seen the past couple seasons, with a much higher strikeout rate (25 percent versus 18 percent last season) but still keeping the home runs to a minimum (just three). While he's struggled in the past against left-handers, he's held them to a .226 average this season with a 36/19 K/BB ratio compared to 72/56 in 2012. And it's not all batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is a fairly normal .285 so far. If he keeps getting lefties out, he's going to keep winning games.
Honorable mention star of the weekend
Have to mention Joey Votto for getting on base all six times in Saturday's win for the Cincinnati Reds -- he went 4-for-4 with two walks, a double and a home run. Only two players had a "6-for-6" day last season -- Aaron Hill of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Neil Walker of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both went 5-for-5 with a walk and, like Votto, doubled and homered.
One more honorable mention star of the weekend
The Diamondbacks beat the Miami Marlins on Saturday as Brandon McCarthy pitched the three-hit shutout (no save!), but he had a lot of help from Gerardo Parra, who led off the game with this on the first pitch and then did this in the bottom of the first. Parra has one of the better arms in the majors, but his bat is a big reason the D-backs are in first place, as he's hitting .320/.385/.494 with 28 runs (11th in the NL). That batting line, combined with his outstanding defense, has Parra leading the NL in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), tied with Matt Harvey and Clayton Kershaw, at 3.1. Justin who?
Clutch performance of the weekend
Atlanta Braves rookie Evan Gattis keeps finding a way to get himself into the highlights. On Saturday, he pinch hit in the eighth inning against hard-throwing Kenley Jansen of the Los Angeles Dodgers with the Braves down 1-0 and a runner on and did this on a 2-2 fastball. The best part of the highlight is Freddie Freeman's "I don't believe that" reaction in the dugout.
The Dodgers bullpen, meanwhile, continues to implode. They followed Saturday's loss with another one on Sunday, giving up four runs in the eighth in a 5-2 loss. It has 13 losses, three more than any other team, and its 4.61 ERA is better only than the New York Mets and Houston Astros.
Unclutch performance of the weekend
Aroldis Chapman, step on down. Chapman entered with a 2-1 lead on Sunday and walked Delmon Young with one out. That was bad enough, but Cliff Lee pinch ran for Delmon (yes, a guy who plays the outfield regularly got run for by a pitcher) and got picked off for the second out of the inning. Game over, right? Nope. Erik Kratz homered on a 3-2, 98 mph heater. And then Freddy Galvis -- Freddy Galvis! -- hit the dramatic walk-off home run off a 95 mph fastball.
Best game
OK, it's pretty difficult to top that one. There were some wild games this weekend -- Tampa beat Baltimore 12-10 on Friday, the Indians gave up two home runs in the ninth to Seattle on Saturday only to win in the bottom of the inning -- but Friday's Washington Nationals-San Diego Padres game was a tough one for San Diego. Adam LaRoche homered twice off rookie Burch Smith, but the Padres tied it with two runs in the bottom of the ninth off Rafael Soriano -- with the help of another Ryan Zimmerman throwing error. (A situation that's becoming a serious problem for the Nationals, as that's nine errors for Zimmerman with his fielding percentage a Mark Reynolds-like .897.) Anyway, Chad Tracy hit a pinch-hit homer off Huston Street in the 10th to give the Nats a 6-5 win. That's already six home runs allowed for Street, whose trade value is shrinking with each home run.
Hitter on the rise: Jason Kipnis, Indians
He had a three-run, walk-off home run in the 10th inning on Friday and two hits on Saturday and Sunday, giving him nine in his past four games, all Cleveland victories. The Indians are 17-4 since April 28 and Kipnis has hit .305 with seven home runs and 21 RBIs in the 20 games he's played. He won't start the All-Star Game with Robinson Cano in the American League, and the AL is loaded at second base with Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Kipnis at the All-Star Game.
Pitcher on the rise: Jeff Locke, Pirates
I'm not necessarily buying, but the lefty is now 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA after tossing seven scoreless innings on Sunday against the Astros in a 1-0 win. His K/BB ratio is a pedestrian 32/22, but opponents are hitting just .219 off him, thanks to a .230 BABIP. With that number likely to rise, Locke will need to record a few more whiffs to maintain success close to this level. Still, that's three scoreless outings this season and one did come against the Cardinals. Even though he's not this good, if he can give the Pirates 175 solid innings as a No. 4 starter, they'll take it.
Team on the rise: Pirates
The Pirates took two of three from the Astros to improve to 11-6 in May and 26-18 overall. They're second in the majors in ERA, and it's not necessarily a huge fluke as they're third in strikeouts. One thing to keep an eye on: Only the hapless Astros have needed more innings from their bullpen, so while the Pittsburgh crew has been outstanding, the workload is a possible concern down the road.
Team on the fall: Dodgers
The two bright spots this week were Zack Greinke's return and Matt Kemp's great catch on Saturday, but three losses in Atlanta reiterated that this isn't just a team ravaged by injuries: It's a bad team with a bad bullpen that finds ways to lose. Manager Don Mattingly said not to blame the bullpen. "You add on a run here or there, it takes a lot of pressure off a guy that you can't give up one hit that changes the whole game. I think we have to take this all as a group."
OK, then, we'll call it a team effort of a team on the fall.
Rays still the favorite in the AL East
May, 19, 2013
May 19
9:01
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
When the Tampa Bay Rays changed their name in 2008 and transformed overnight from the hapless laughingstock of the American League to 97-win division champions, their rotation featured five pitchers 26 or younger: At 26, James Shields was the old man of the group, which included Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine.
The genius of the Rays since then has been their ability to consistently replenish the staff with young starters and yet remain one of the best in the league. With the departure of Shields this offseason, that original five has been completely made over; a transition began when David Price joined the rotation during the 2009 season. The unofficial title of staff ace has shifted from Kazmir to Shields to Price, and it appears another shift is taking place in 2013.
Matt Moore, your presence as a Cy Young contender is duly noted. With reigning Cy Young champ Price struggling -- earning just one win in nine starts while posting a 5.24 ERA, and then landing on the DL a few days ago with triceps strain -- it is Moore who has helped keep the Rays afloat more than any one pitcher. He improved to 8-0 on Sunday, limiting the Baltimore Orioles to five hits and one run over seven innings in a 3-1 victory, as the Rays completed an impressive sweep in Baltimore.
Moore lowered his ERA to 2.29, the Rays improved to 23-20 with their ninth win in 11 games, and this is looking like a team starting to click on all cylinders -- even as Price sits on the sidelines the next two weeks.
At 23, Moore became the youngest American League pitcher to start 8-0 since another hard-throwing lefty named Babe Ruth did it in 1917. The scary thing about his start is that the ability to perform even better is there, as he has been inconsistent with his command and pitched seven innings just twice. Manager Joe Maddon suggested as much, telling MLB.com:
I think from where he's coming from, he knows he can be better. He doesn't like those five-inning outings. He doesn't like that at all. So I'm sure he's deflecting based on that. As you see him get deeper into the games and more consistent with the wins, I think you might see him step out a little bit.
But I like the idea that there's humility involved. I like the idea that he knows that he can get better. I love that. The accountability is tremendous. That doesn't surprise me. ... Historically speaking, it has been wonderful, but there is 'more' in Moore. And he knows that.
Moore has held batters to a .175 average but he has also walked 26 in 55 innings, so there's room for improvement. In some ways, that's what made Sunday's outing impressive: He struck out only three but walked one, avoiding a big inning in the process. Another area for improvement is that while Moore's fastball/curveball/changeup arsenal has destroyed right-handers -- they're hitting .064 off the curveball with 20 strikeouts in 47 plate appearances -- he hasn't yet learned to dominate lefties, who have hit a respectable .236/.335/.361 off him the past two seasons he sticks mostly to the fastball against them.
Of course, a major reason he's 8-0 is excellent run support, but this isn't a typical Tampa Bay offense that struggles to put up runs. After outscoring only the Royals, Indians and Mariners last season, the Rays have scored just 12 runs fewer than the best-in-the-AL Tigers. The Rays' OPS has increased from .711 to .760 and not just because Dodgers castoff James Loney is off to a .356 start. Matt Joyce has eight home runs and Luke Scott has driven in 12 runs in 17 games since coming off the DL; both homered in Sunday's win. Kelly Johnson is hitting .274 with seven home runs. With Loney's hot start, that gives the Rays four threats from the left side. Logic says to throw left-handed pitching at the Rays, but the division isn't exactly ripe with left-handed starters once you get past CC Sabathia and Jon Lester, especially with Mark Buehrle struggling and Andy Pettitte and Wei-Yin Chen currently on the DL.
Throw a lefty, however, and there's that guy named Evan Longoria waiting for you in the middle.
But here's why I'll stick with my preseason choice of the Rays to win the AL East: pitching, pitching, pitching. At least starting pitching. (The bullpen is the team's major issue right now.) At Triple-A Durham, the rotation included Alex Torres (2.39 ERA, 49 SO, 14 BB in 37.2 IP), Jake Odorizzi (3.83 ERA, 47 SO, 15 BB in 44.2 IP), Chris Archer (4.38 ERA, 40 SO, 19 BB in 39 IP) and Alex Colome (2.86 ERA, 59 SO, 20 BB in 50 IP). The Angels would kill to have those four in their rotation right now.
Torres was called up to replace Price, but Odorizzi will get the start on Monday afternoon against Toronto. All Torres did on Saturday was pitch four hitless innings in relief of Roberto Hernandez to earn his second major league win.
It's all those arms that explain why Price will likely make his billions with another team eventually.
Not that Maddon doesn't want his ace back as quickly as possible or co-ace, that is.
Who replaces David Price in rotation?
May, 16, 2013
May 16
11:52
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
David Price's rough season got worse last night when he left his start with a triceps injury and might miss a start or two. Let's hope it's nothing more severe than that.
Eric Karabell speculates on who the Rays will start in his place. As Eric points out, Jake Odorizzi started Wednesday for Tampa's Triple-A club, so he's on Price's schedule, although he pitched poorly on Wednesday. I love Chris Archer and the way he pitched down the stretch in the majors last year, but he hasn't pitched as well in Triple-A, although his strikeout rate is fine. Maybe he's one of those guys who does better on the big stage.
Personally, I like Archer's upside a lot more, but Odorizzi's Durham numbers are pretty solid (3.83 ERA, 47 SO, 15 BB in 44 innings). Alex Torres (2.39 ERA, 49/14 SO/BB ratio) has also been outstanding, and Alex Colome (2.84 ERA, 51 K's in 44.1 inings) might finally be reaching his potential. Basically, Tampa Bay's Triple-A rotation is probably better than several major league rotations.
No matter who gets the call, that's some nice depth. Now the Rays just need to get the big league staff rolling as they're 11th in the AL in runs allowed, an unusual position for a Tampa Bay club.
Eric Karabell speculates on who the Rays will start in his place. As Eric points out, Jake Odorizzi started Wednesday for Tampa's Triple-A club, so he's on Price's schedule, although he pitched poorly on Wednesday. I love Chris Archer and the way he pitched down the stretch in the majors last year, but he hasn't pitched as well in Triple-A, although his strikeout rate is fine. Maybe he's one of those guys who does better on the big stage.
Personally, I like Archer's upside a lot more, but Odorizzi's Durham numbers are pretty solid (3.83 ERA, 47 SO, 15 BB in 44 innings). Alex Torres (2.39 ERA, 49/14 SO/BB ratio) has also been outstanding, and Alex Colome (2.84 ERA, 51 K's in 44.1 inings) might finally be reaching his potential. Basically, Tampa Bay's Triple-A rotation is probably better than several major league rotations.
No matter who gets the call, that's some nice depth. Now the Rays just need to get the big league staff rolling as they're 11th in the AL in runs allowed, an unusual position for a Tampa Bay club.
James Loney is hitting .376, second in the majors to Miguel Cabrera. Eric Karabell wrote about the Tampa Bay Rays first baseman:
I'm basically in agreement with Eric. He's unlikely to have suddenly improved at age 29. The Rays are smartly platooning him; for some reason the Dodgers never realized he couldn't hit left-handers, or kept hoping he'd eventually figure it out. (He hit .231 with little power against lefties from 2009 through 2012.)
Anyway, you know who Loney reminds me of? Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer. In fact ... the similarities are pretty eerie. Both were pitchers/first basemen in high school who some teams like on the mound as much as the plate. Both are tall/thinner guys who put up big numbers their first seasons in the majors, leading to big expectations.
You remember what Hosmer did as a rookie in 2011 at age 21, hitting .293 with 19 home runs in 128 games. But Loney had even bigger numbers his first season in the majors in 2007. After hitting well at the end of 2006 (.901 OPS in 111 plate appearances), Loney hit .331/.381/.538 with 15 home runs in 96 games his rookie season. He was older than Hosmer -- he turned 23 that season -- but still young enough that he looked like a future All-Star.
It never happened, of course. Those 15 home runs remain a career high. Last year, he slumped all the way to .249/.293/.336, putting his career in jeopardy if he didn't rebound this year.
Like Loney, Hosmer has so far been unable to tap into his power potential. He struggled last year and while he's hitting .270 right now, it's a soft .270 with one home run. And he's not hitting doubles either -- he's on pace for 19 doubles and five home runs. He just doesn't hit the ball hard enough or far enough often enough.
He's still very young, of course, and it's easy to lose sight of that. But Loney's career is a warning that just because you flash power early in your career you're not necessarily going to grow from there.
Loney enters the week one of five players being aided by a BABIP of better than .400. All five players (Joe Mauer, Carlos Gomez, Starling Marte, Cabrera and Loney) are hitting considerably better than .300, but I think only Mauer and Cabrera stay there. Loney is taking walks, making more contact and not striking out as much, and considering he has been on the bench against lefty pitchers, I wouldn't be shocked if he batted .300. But I'll say he hits more like .250 the rest of the way, and I'll take the under on 12 home runs and 70 RBIs. The fact we're even discussing him at all after years of underachievement with the Los Angeles Dodgers is a feat in itself.
I'm basically in agreement with Eric. He's unlikely to have suddenly improved at age 29. The Rays are smartly platooning him; for some reason the Dodgers never realized he couldn't hit left-handers, or kept hoping he'd eventually figure it out. (He hit .231 with little power against lefties from 2009 through 2012.)
Anyway, you know who Loney reminds me of? Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer. In fact ... the similarities are pretty eerie. Both were pitchers/first basemen in high school who some teams like on the mound as much as the plate. Both are tall/thinner guys who put up big numbers their first seasons in the majors, leading to big expectations.
You remember what Hosmer did as a rookie in 2011 at age 21, hitting .293 with 19 home runs in 128 games. But Loney had even bigger numbers his first season in the majors in 2007. After hitting well at the end of 2006 (.901 OPS in 111 plate appearances), Loney hit .331/.381/.538 with 15 home runs in 96 games his rookie season. He was older than Hosmer -- he turned 23 that season -- but still young enough that he looked like a future All-Star.
It never happened, of course. Those 15 home runs remain a career high. Last year, he slumped all the way to .249/.293/.336, putting his career in jeopardy if he didn't rebound this year.
Like Loney, Hosmer has so far been unable to tap into his power potential. He struggled last year and while he's hitting .270 right now, it's a soft .270 with one home run. And he's not hitting doubles either -- he's on pace for 19 doubles and five home runs. He just doesn't hit the ball hard enough or far enough often enough.
He's still very young, of course, and it's easy to lose sight of that. But Loney's career is a warning that just because you flash power early in your career you're not necessarily going to grow from there.
Weekend wrap: Is Jose Bautista back?
May, 13, 2013
May 13
1:55
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
In April, Jose Bautista had turned into a three true outcomes type of player: home run, walk or strikeout. He hit seven home runs and had a slugging percentage over .500, but was hitting just .200.
Was he just finding his stroke as he returned from last year's injury problems? Or was he no longer the MVP-caliber hitter of 2010 and 2011, when he hit 54 and 43 home runs, drew walks, and hit .260 and then .302?
He hit his first two home runs of May on Sunday in a 12-4 pasting of the Red Sox to raise his overall batting to .246/.360/.544 -- respectable, if not quite 2011-level Bautista. And the Blue Jays need 2011-level Bautista if they have any hope of recovering from their awful start.
I'm not quite sure he's there yet. While Bautista can crush any fastball -- he's hitting .333 with six home runs in 51 at-bats ending with a fastball this season -- it was his production against "soft" stuff that allowed him to hit above .300 in 2011. Check out these two charts on his batting average against soft stuff in 2011, and then the past two seasons:
ESPN Stats & InformationIn 2011, Bautista hit .291/.415/.591 with 16 home runs against soft stuff.
ESPN Stats & Information Over the past two seasons, Bautista has hit just .180/.326/.365 against soft stuff.As you can see, that's a lot of red (hot) in 2011 and a lot of blue (cold) since. This year, he's 7-for-51 (.137) with three home runs against soft stuff. He split his home runs on Sunday -- one came off a first-pitch Ryan Dempster fastball, the other off an 0-1 83 mph slider from Clayton Mortensen. Bautista is a dead pull hitter -- only one home run to center and one to right-center over the past two seasons -- which can leave him vulnerable to breaking stuff on the outside part of the plate.
I haven't seen enough evidence that he's going to punish those pitches like he did a couple years ago, so I would guess he'll be prone to ups and downs throughout the season. He's still a huge threat at the plate, but not the MVP bat of 2011.
REST OF THE WEEKEND
Three stars
1. Shelby Miller, Cardinals. One hit. Twenty-seven down. In a 3-0 win over the Rockies on Friday, the St. Louis rookie became the fifth pitcher since 1961 to allow the first batter to reach base and then retire 27 in a row, joining John Lackey (2006 Angels), Jerry Reuss (1982 Dodgers), Jim Bibby (1981 Pirates) and Woodie Fryman (1966 Pirates). Miller had the Rockies guessing wrong -- or merely looking -- all night long, as he got 30 called strikes, the second-most by a starter this season. Eight of those closed out Miller's 13 strikeouts. Just a dominant performance. In fact, for all the attention given to Matt Harvey this year, compare the two young right-handers:
Miller: 5-2, 1.58 ERA, 45.2 IP, 29 H, 3 HR, 11 BB, 51 SO, .179 AVG
Harvey: 4-0, 1.44 ERA, 56.1 IP, 27 H, 3 HR, 14 BB, 62 SO, .142 AVG
2. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals. Not to be outdone, Wainwright took a no-hitter into the eighth inning on Saturday, finishing with a two-hit shutout in another 3-0 win for the Cards. Wainwright improved to 5-2 with a 2.30 ERA and had strong words about his rookie teammate: "You follow Roger Clemens a couple times like I have been, it makes you focus a little bit more," he said. "Once you see Shelby mow through a lineup like he has all year, you want to go out there and do it, too." Kudos also to Cards manager Mike Matheny for leaving in Miller to throw 113 pitches, and Wainwright to throw 120. In this day when managers are too willing to yank starters at 100 pitches, it is good to see a manager let his guys go the distance.
3. Chris Sale, White Sox, and Jon Lester, Red Sox. Two more one-hit shutouts, Lester on Friday, Sale on Sunday. Can't anyone here hit anymore? Lester got 12 ground-ball outs as he joined Pedro Martinez (2000), Hideo Nomo (2001), Curt Schilling (2007) and Josh Beckett (2011) as Red Sox pitchers to throw a one-hit, no-walk shutout in the live ball era. But Sale threw his wearing the so-ugly-they're-cool 1983 throwback uniforms.
Clutch performance of the weekend
Evan Longoria, for his two-out, two-run, bottom-of-the-ninth home run to give the Rays a dramatic 8-7 win over the Padres on Saturday. My favorite part: There's some sort of picnic area in left-center (yes, "picnic area" and "domed stadium" is kind of an oxymoron) where the ball landed, and it looks like half the fans out there didn't realize it was a game-winning home run.
First off, credit Ben Zobrist for a drawing the two-out walk on a 3-2 pitch from Huston Street, working back from a 1-2 count. Street knew that was the batter he had to get. "You get him 1-2, you've got to make a pitch," he said. "I'm frustrated about that just as much as leaving a pitch to Longoria in the middle of the plate." The Rays had led 6-2 before the Padres scored five in the seventh, leading Joe Maddon to say it would have been one of Tampa's worst three losses of the year. "But you can't go to the dance playing like that. When you get leads, you've got to put the other team away. I'm not happy with that. That's inappropriate. That's got to stop," he said.
The Rays finished the sweep on Sunday, however -- their fifth win in a row -- and clawed a game over .500.
Best game
Well, that Padres-Rays game was pretty good. Miller's game was mesmerizing. Toronto's win over Boston on Saturday featured Adam Lind's go-ahead home run in the ninth off Junichi Tazawa, after the Red Sox had tied it in the bottom of the eighth. But I'll go with Cleveland's 7-6 win over Justin Verlander and the Tigers on Saturday. Or Cleveland's 4-3 win on Sunday, in which the Indians tied it in the ninth and won it in the 10th, leading to this quote from Mark Reynolds, who delivered the go-ahead single: "With two strikes, I'm just trying to shorten up my swing and get something into play," he said. Wait ... since when does Reynolds shorten up his swing? Gotta love baseball.
The Indians took two of three from the Tigers to move into a first-place tie with Detroit.
Hitter on the rise: Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
He had six home runs through April 21, but his average fell to .173 after a three-strikeout game on April 25. In 16 games, he's hit .419/.478/.694, with three more home runs, eight doubles and nearly as many walks (six) as strikeouts (eight). He has six three-hit games in that stretch, and he's showing he's more than just an all-or-nothing slugger. He's showing he's a guy who is going to be the Cubs' cleanup hitter for a long time.
Pitcher on the rise: Zach McAllister, Indians
Don't believe in the Indians? Don't believe in the rotation? McAllister is starting to look like another solid option alongside Justin Masterson. He didn't get a decision in Sunday's game but pitched a solid six innings. He's 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA and a decent 33/13 SO/BB ratio in 43.2 innings. He's a fly ball pitcher but has allowed just five home runs in seven starts. If he keeps the ball on the right side of the fence he has a chance to be successful.
Brandon Phillips play of the week
This one was pretty.
Happy Mother's Day
Pablo Sandoval uses his pink bat to launch one into McCovey Cove. Tim Lincecum backed up Sandoval with his best outing of the year as the Giants took the final three of four from the Braves. Tough stretch coming up for the Giants, however: 20 of their next 30 on the road, including series in Toronto, Colorado, St. Louis, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Atlanta.
Team on the rise: Indians
They're 12-2 over the past 14, hitting .305 with 24 home runs -- and that stretch does not include that 19-6 win over Houston earlier in the season. The pitching staff has a 2.98 ERA with 13 home runs allowed. The Indians lead the majors in home runs and OPS, and guys like Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera and Lonnie Chisenhall have room to do better.
Team on the fall: A's
Awful week, losing four to Cleveland and then two of three to Seattle. They scored more than three runs just once in seven games as injuries to outfielders Coco Crisp, Chris Young and Josh Reddick have left them playing Michael Taylor and Brandon Moss in the outfield (with Daric Barton or Nate Freiman replacing Moss at first base). Jarrod Parker is still scuffling (6.86 ERA, four walks in 6.1 innings on Saturday). The A's just need to get healthy, and they didn't hit their stride last year until July (they were 37-42 and 13 games out on July 1), so they may be down now, but hardly out.
Price looks better, Dickey still struggling
May, 10, 2013
May 10
12:05
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Back in March, we would have predicted this showdown of reigning Cy Young winners R.A. Dickey and David Price -- just the third time that that has happened -- would be a monumental duel between two of the game's best pitchers, maybe with first place in the AL East on the line.
Instead, the Toronto Blue Jays entered with a lousy record, a lousy run differential and a starting rotation in shambles, both in performance and injury status. The Tampa Bay Rays were a little better but still three games under .500, and their biggest problem hadn't been scoring runs, but preventing them. This isn't the Blue Jays team we expected to see, nor the Rays team we've grown accustomed to seeing.
The Rays ended up winning 5-4 in 10 innings, but let's review how things went for our Cy Young winners.
Dickey entered with a 2-5 record and 5.36 ERA, and his problems compared to 2012 were pretty easy to spot: more walks (1.5 more per nine innings), fewer strikeouts (down nearly two per nine innings), more home runs (eight, already one-third his total of 24 from 2012) and a low strand rate (80 percent in 2012, 65 percent in 2013).
Numbers are numbers, but they don't tell us why the numbers were bad. In this case, however, a deeper dig reveals a primary cause: Dickey hasn't been throwing -- or has been unable to throw because of back and neck inflammation -- his "hard" knuckleball as often. According to research from Mark Simon and Katie Sharp of ESPN Stats & Information, Dickey threw his knuckleball at 80 mph or higher 491 times last season, or 20 percent of his total pitches. Entering Thursday's game, he had thrown only 12 knuckleballs at 80-plus mph, or 2 percent of his total pitches. The kicker is that results against Dickey's sub-80 knuckleballs were nearly identical: .241/.293/.382 in 2012 versus .226/.294/.397 in 2013. But last season, his hard knuckleball, with that late break, was his dominant putaway pitch. He hasn't had that this season.
[+] Enlarge

Photo by J. Meric/Getty ImagesComing off a Cy Young season, R.A. Dickey has struggled with his hard knuckleball.
In his last game at home, he was booed after giving up three home runs to the Mariners. "We're somewhat of a dysfunctional team right now," Dickey said after that loss. "We're kind of searching for a way to score runs, a way to pitch well. We're doing a lot of things poorly, myself included."
Thursday's game didn't do anything to alleviate those issues. The Blue Jays ended up losing in the 10th inning on a bases-loaded two-out walk on a 3-2 pitch to Luke Scott by Brad Lincoln. He had entered with two on and walked pinch hitter Ryan Roberts to load the bases. But that had been preceded by John Gibbons having lefty Aaron Loup intentionally walk left-handed James Loney with a runner on second. I understand why the move was made; Loney is hitting .381, second in the AL, and once Roberts was announced -- he's hit .152 against right-handers -- Gibbons made the switch. Of course, Loney hasn't hit lefties in years (ignore this season's small sample size), and if Gibbons was so concerned about matchups, why not bring in Lincoln to face Evan Longoria, who had doubled with two outs to start the rally?
Anyway, another bad loss for the Jays, with plenty of blame to go around. They're 10 games under .500 at 13-23. In the wild-card era, 95 teams have started 13-20 or worse and only three (2001 A's, 2005 Astros and 2009 Rockies) recovered to make the playoffs.
The returns on Price were much more positive. He pitched eight innings, allowed four runs (two earned) with eight strikeouts and a walk. While much has been made about his drop in fastball velocity (an average of 95.4 mph in 2012 versus 93.2 mph entering Thursday's game), Mark and Katie discovered that Price's curveball perhaps has been the bigger problem. Basically, he has been throwing it for strikes too often and it has been getting hit instead serving as a punch-out pitch. Last season, batters hit .153 against it; before Thursday, they were hitting .323 against it.
He threw his curve 13 times against the Jays, but only one ended up as a decisive pitch in an at-bat (he got the out). The good news is he kept his pitches down. He'd thrown 53 percent of his pitches in the upper half of the strike zone entering the game, up 12 percent from 2012. On this night, that figure was just 26 percent. As a result, he didn't allow a home run for only the second start this season.
While one win in his first eight starts isn't how Price and Rays fans envisioned things, there are clear reasons to be optimistic about him. It hardly would be a surprise to see him roll off seven or eight great starts in a row and get that ERA close to 3.00 by the All-Star break. The Rays still need to get the bullpen going and stop surrendering so many home runs (tied for fourth most in the majors), but if you ask me which team -- Toronto or Tampa Bay -- is more likely to climb into the pennant race, I'd go with the Rays.
Maddon pays for using closer too soon
May, 7, 2013
May 7
12:40
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Joe Maddon, once again trying to be the smartest kid on the block, with your fancy glasses and wacky pregame guests and funny haircuts.
How dare you bring your closer in during the eighth inning. With runners on base, no less! Who do you think you are to manage outside the box and pretend it's still 1985 or something? Push your buttons! That's how you manage in this day and age. Your setup guy pitches the eighth. Your closer pitches the ninth. Don't try to think out there; it'll only get you in trouble.
Like it did on Monday night. You were doing fine. Your Tampa Bay Rays led the struggling Toronto Blue Jays 7-5 entering the top of the eighth and Joel Peralta was on the mound. That may have been your first problem: You had actually used Peralta to get out of a jam in the seventh. So when J.P. Arencibia singled and then Peralta walked Brett Lawrie with one out, you faced a dilemma: Keep in Peralta, who had thrown 22 pitches, or bring in Fernando Rodney?
I know you trust Rodney. He was so, so good a year ago; dude allowed only five earned runs all season. It was an Eckersley-like season in its efficiency and dominance. He'd been a little shaky so far in 2013 -- nine hits and seven walks and four earned runs in just 9.1 innings -- but he'd blown only that one save back in the second game of the year, when he may have still been a little fatigued from the World Baseball Classic, and the Rays won anyway. I mean, sure, it's Fernando Rodney, career journeyman with one miracle season under his belt, but he's your closer. He's your ninth-inning guy.
And that's my point. He's the ninth-inning guy. You know how many times he'd entered a game before the ninth this year? Zero. You know how many of his 48 saves last year saw him entering in the eighth inning? Just two, and both of those were in September, during a desperate drive for the postseason.
But you brought him in, hoping he could get five outs. By the way, entering Monday night there had been 237 saves in the majors this season. Not including these ridiculous three-inning saves in blowouts, you know how many of those 237 saves were more than three outs? Seven. And only three of those were more than four outs and those probably happened because the manager fell asleep.
I mean, did you really want to answer to the media if Rodney blew this one? Your thesaurus doesn't do much good when trying to explain losing a game because you brought your closer in too soon.
So Rodney got out of the eighth, although he did give up a sacrifice fly to cut the lead to 7-6. In the ninth, Adam Lind walked on a 3-2 changeup. That was Rodney's wipeout pitch in 2012; in 120 plate appearances ending with a changeup, he recorded 55 strikeouts and just five walks and batters hit .071. It was nearly untouchable. But that was already the fifth walk he'd allowed off the changeup in 2013.
Pinch-runner Emilio Bonifacio then stole second and reached when Jose Molina threw wildly. But then Colby Rasmus struck out -- on a 3-2 changeup -- and Maicer Izturis grounded out to first baseman James Loney, leaving Bonifacio still at third with two outs. That brought up power-hitting catcher J.P. Arencibia, who had hit eight home runs but had season totals of 42 strikeouts and two walks. I'm not making that up. He pretty much will swing at anything between the two dugouts.
Here's what happened:
ESPN Stats & Information The locations of Rodney's five pitches to Arencibia (pitch No. 3 is hidden behind pitch No. 4).Rodney threw four straight 97-mph fastballs to get the count to 2-2. Arencibia can still be dangerous with two strikes -- six of his eight home runs had come with two strikes -- but considering his free-swinging ways, a changeup somewhere off the plate may have been a good idea. That No. 5 circle was another 97-mph fastball and Arencibia made the home crowd very sad with a two-run homer to left field.
A crushing 8-7 defeat for the Rays. A great win for the Blue Jays, who survived another bad Mark Buehrle start (Tampa Bay scored all seven of its runs in the third inning, including an Evan Longoria grand slam).
Look, we could make a point that bullpens are volatile, and that maybe we shouldn't have expected the Tampa Bay's pen to be as good as it was last year when the Rays led the majors with a 3.19 bullpen ERA. The Rays now have a 4.80 bullpen ERA, 28th in the majors. We could point out that Rodney wasn't going to be as good as last season even if he was good again. I think the point from this game is clear, however: Joe Maddon outsmarted himself. Push the buttons next time, Joe, push the buttons.
Don't dare to make the unconventional move. Even if it was the right one to make.

