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• Paul Lukas has a piece up on Robert Griffin III becoming the first player to wear Roman numerals on his jersey. But in that piece he has some cool stuff on baseball players who wore nicknames on their jerseys. My favorite: One year, Johnnie LeMaster had been getting booed so much he wore "BOO" on the back of his jersey for a game.
• Johnette Howard has a nice piece on Rays outfielder Rich Thompson -- living the big league dream at age 33.
• Don't give up hope, Phillies fans! Bill Baer gives you some reasons for optimism.
• Catching up with Rusty Staub. The Mets have Staub bobblehead day this weekend.
• Here's an interview with new Red Sox director of player developoment Ben Crockett -- a former minor league pitcher who also happens to hold an economics degree from Harvard.
• Hey, I'm not the only one pumping up the Indians! ESPN Insider Ben Lindbergh writes why this season's Clevelanders will hold up better than the 2011 version. And FanGraphs' Dave Cameron says Cleveland is now the team to beat in the AL Central.
• Astros pitchers are getting the job done.
• Jim Tracy in a nutshell. Look, I expected the Rockies to be bad this year. But I don't think the Rockies expected to be bad. It may not be long before that leash snaps.
• ESPN Insider Kevin Goldstein explains how Scott Boras can exploit the draft this year.
• A Braves Q&A from Capitol Avenue Club.

SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield and I had plenty to talk about on Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast!

1. Cole Hamels let his pitching do the talking about Bryce Harper and the Nationals Thursday, but each time Hamels throws it reminds us of his talent and contract status.

2. Albert Pujols speaks out about his slump! Do we buy his excuses or not?

3. Was Arizona's win over the Dodgers on Wednesday an important win?

4. Our emailers want to know about strength of schedule, ballpark gamesmanship, Drew Sutton and some of the more interesting pitcher-hitter matchups to watch for years to come.

5. Smaller schedule for Thursday but the amazing Justin Verlander is on the mound, as well as the only pitcher in baseball who provides a quality start each and every time out to the mound.

So download and listen to Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast and get ready for Friday’s fun show!

My special co-host for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast was ESPN writer and former GM Jim Bowden, and let’s just say neither of us held back in what was an entertaining, honest and lively show.

1. The Red Sox are apparently cool with Adrian Gonzalez playing right field, but for how long? How easy will it be for the team to trade Kevin Youkilis? And should the Red Sox and Phillies be sellers?

2. Jim shares his thoughts on his players that will be traded before July 31, leading with a former Cy Young winner plying his trade for a team that can’t afford him.

3. Ah, here’s a topic we never get to: closers. Jim and I debate the human effect for fellows like Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall.

4. When Tampa’s Joe Maddon makes unconventional decisions, we praise him. Is that fair? What if a manager not known for his good moves would have led Carlos Pena off?

5. Finally, we look at Wednesday’s schedule, which includes Cole Hamels versus Bryce Harper. The Nationals are clearly getting the last laugh on their I-95 rivals.

So download and listen to a fun Baseball Today podcast, because it’s boring when everyone agrees. And on this show, that just wasn’t the case!

Leave it to Joe Maddon and the Tampa Bay Rays to find another unconventional way to play baseball: Carlos Pena is hitting leadoff in tonight's game against Toronto.

Yes, the first baseman with one stolen base and a .209 batting average. Last week, in a 2-1 victory over the Red Sox, Maddon had second baseman Jeff Keppinger and third baseman Sean Rodriguez shift positions for the final batter, left-handed hitter Daniel Nava. Rodriguez has more range than Keppinger, so Maddon moved him to second. Sure enough, Nava grounded out to Rodriguez for the final out.

Now, it's possible that Maddon is looking at Pena's .353 on-base percentage (.372 against right-handed pitchers) and thinking Pena is the team's best leadoff option right now with Desmond Jennings on the disabled list. It's possible he's trying to help Pena snap out of a big slump -- he's hitting .116 in May -- like a year ago when he moved Evan Longoria into the leadoff spot for three games. Either way, how many managers would hit their slow-footed first baseman first?

There's a bigger issue concerning Pena, however. Since April 18, he's hitting .143/.302/.223 with two home runs in 112 at-bats. He's tied for second in the majors in most strikeouts. With two strikes, he's useless: .110 on the season, and just 3-for-60 (.050) with 42 strikeouts since April 18. His skill set right now is essentially the ability to draw walks. Considering he can't hit left-handers, you can't keep a guy like that in the middle of the order.

I remember way back when Bill James asked if Mickey Tettleton had taken the whole walks/strikeouts approach too far. It's possible we can ask the same question for Pena. Maddon has shown a lot of patience with Pena, starting him in 42 of Tampa's 43 games. It's also clear that he needs to be platooned, but in this day of 12-man pitching staffs it's difficult to platoon at first base. It makes you wonder if this leadoff thing doesn't work if the Rays will be searching for a new first baseman.

First base: Home-field disadvantage. Owners added the one-game wild-card game in part to reward teams that won a division title. However, they've just taken away some of that advantage by changing the layout of the Division Series from 2-2-1 to 2-3. Instead of starting at home, the higher seed will play the first two games on the road before heading. Look, it's not huge deal and might revert back to 2-2-1 next year, when the regular season begins earlier, thus providing more potential off days in October. Still, I don't see why 2-2-1 would have been an issue, even with the need to have fewer off days this season. But why do we need so many off days anyway? Obviously, teams play in different cities on back-to-back days all the time.

Also buried in that story is something that will get fans much more upset: Two Division Series games will shift from TBS to MLB Network, which is available in about 30 million fewer homes.

Second base: Reddick-hot. Josh Reddick plays for the Oakland A's, so he's not exactly going to be leading the SportsCenter highlights. But he's quietly putting together a nice season, hitting .283 with 10 home runs. His big home run off Alexi Ogando tied the game in the seventh inning Thursday and the A's then beat the Rangers in the 10th. The A's are a game over .500 at 20-19 and another key to their surprising success has been reliever Ryan Cook, who threw two hitless innings to get the win. Cook has yet to allow run and has allowed just four hits in 19.2 innings.

Third base: Feel-good stories. A couple of nice stories to highlight. The Blue Jays sent down former 35-homer man Adam Lind and called up Yan Gomes, who became the first Brazilian-born player to reach the majors. Gomes went 2-for-3 in Toronto's win over the Yankees. Gomes is a catcher/third baseman and not a top prospect, although he was hitting .359 for Las Vegas (of course, everyone hits .359 at Las Vegas). Gomes moved to the U.S. with his family when he was 12 and was drafted out of Barry University in Florida.

Rich Thompson is a 33-year-old outfielder who had one at-bat with the Royals back in 2004. He's been in the minor leagues ever since, including the past five seasons with Lehigh Valley, the Phillies' Triple-A club, where he became a fan favorite. Earlier this week, the Phillies traded him to the Rays, who called up him to the big leagues. On Thursday, he started in left field and picked up his first major league hit and RBI. Dreams do come true.

Home plate: Tweet of the day. Ahh, good ol' Jim Tracy.

As a #SFGiants fan, I'd like to see Jim Tracy stick around as #Rockies manager. As a sane person, I don't see how he does.

— Wendy Thurm (@hangingsliders) May 18, 2012

First base: The 49-year-old speedster. So not only did Jamie Moyer win his second game of the season in Colorado's 6-1 victory over Arizona, but he accomplished the following: (1) He legged out an infield hit that drove in two runs, becoming the oldest major leaguer to record an RBI; (2) He drove in more than he allowed; (3) He pitched into the seventh inning for just the second time this season; (4) He matched his career-high with two RBIs; (5) HE BEAT OUT AN INFIELD HIT! "I thought it was going to roll foul," Moyer said. "And I feel like I hesitated just a little bit, and then ... as I was running down the line, I saw the pitcher stop and the first baseman, I think he picked it up and he was going to throw it to the pitcher and then he realized the pitcher wasn't (covering the bag). So, then it became, I guess, a slow crawl to first base."

Second base: Detroit disaster. The Tigers continue to play uninspiring baseball, losing 11-7 to the Twins to drop to 18-19. Detroit committed four errors in the first three innings but actually led 7-6 through five innings before the bullpen surrendered five runs in relief of Rick Porcello. The Tigers rank last in the AL with a 5.17 bullpen ERA. Since starting 9-3, the Tigers are 9-16 as Porcello and Max Scherzer continue to get hit around -- they've combined to allow 109 hits in 87.1 innings. Austin Jackson also left the game with a mild abdominal strain and is day to day. If the Tigers are going to win the division, it appears it will be a slow crawl as opposed to the wire-to-wire domination many projected.

Third base: Mr. BABIP. Remember when everybody said Jeremy Hellickson couldn't replicate his rookie numbers? Too lucky, won't repeat his .223 batting average on balls in play, a figure that led the majors, not enough strikeouts and so on. Well ... so far he's doing it again. Hellickson is now 4-0 with a 2.77 ERA ... and .238 BABIP. On Wednesday, he held the Red Sox to one run in six innings, an improvement over an earlier start against Boston in which he allowed five runs and three home runs. While Hellickson's strikeout rate has increased from 5.6 to 6.5 per nine innings, his hit rate has increased from 7.0 to 7.8 per nine, so there is some regression to the norm going on here. Still, considering Tampa's defensive shifts, Hellickson's proclivity as a fly ball pitcher, and the great late movement he gets on his changeup, his BABIP may always be below league-average figures. In other words ... maybe he's more than just lucky; maybe he's good.

Home plate: Tweet of the day.

Great win in front of the home crowd 2nite. Who's this Jamie Moyer guy? He can do it all, pitch & swing it. #ExcitingYoungPlayer

— Jeremy Guthrie (@JGuthrie46) May 17, 2012

You know, Fernando Rodney has never really been that good. He had 44 good innings for the Tigers in 2005 and he was tough to hit in 2006, when he had a 3.52 ERA. But from 2007 through 2011, he posted a 4.42 ERA, hardly impressive for a relief pitcher, and allowed a ton of baserunners (1.50 WHIP) as he always walked too many batters (5.2 walks per 9). He lucked into 37 saves for the Tigers in 2009 despite a 4.40 ERA and other uninspiring numbers (41 walks, 61 strikeouts, eight home runs in 75.2 innings).

So of course the Angels gave him $11 million, and then were surprised when it turned he was wild and ineffective.

And then the Tampa Bay Rays signed him. The Rays are always in search of power arms for their bullpen. Sure enough, Kyle Farnsworth gets hurt, Joe Maddon decides to sort of make Rodney his closer, he starts throwing strikes for the first time in his career and now he's 2-0 with 11 saves, no blown saves, no extra-base hits allowed and a .232 opponents' OBP, more than 100 points below his .342 career mark.

Can he keep it up? Look, I've learned never to bet against Maddon, but we have a long track record of wildness from Rodney. I doubt the Rays were the first team to tell him, "Throw more strikes."

Anyway, it's been an interesting season for closers, with nearly half the teams in baseball needing to replace their projected closer since spring training began. Of 33 relievers to record at least three saves, only 16 of them have an ERA under 3.00. We have 46 starting pitchers with an ERA under 3.00. Fifteen closers have an opponents' OBP under .300; 52 starters do. (Yes, there are more starters than closers, but still ... shouldn't the guy pitching three innings a week be a little more dominant?)

While Rodney has been perfect, closers have struggled:

• Miami's Heath Bell has three losses, four blown saves, a 10.03 ERA and 30 baserunners allowed in just 11.2 innings. He's basically unusable right now, even if he's a Proven Closer.
• Jose Valverde, Mr. Perfect a year ago for Detroit, is proving you can walk a tightrope for an entire season but that your luck will eventually run out. He has two blown saves, a 5.51 ERA and 12 walks in 16.1 innings.
• Frank Francisco has three losses for the Mets, two blown saves, an ERA on the wrong side of 8, one ejection and too many walks.
• Henry Rodriguez, who replaced the injured Drew Storen in Washington, throws 100 mph but has three blown saves (two of which were losses). I guess he's not a Proven Closer.

And so on. Let's just say you know it's a strange season when we're singing the praises of Fernando Rodney.

Tuesday night was an angry one for quite a few players, managers and umpires, but Mark Simon and I were in good moods to chronicle it all for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast!

1. Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg had a miserable outing Tuesday, and then when his manager told the world what might have contributed, it got worse.

2. Toronto Blue Jays slugger Brett Lawrie lost his cool in the ninth inning Tuesday, and look for the Blue Jays to be without his services for a while. Mark says Lawrie needs help.

3. The Angels found a fall guy for the struggles of Albert Pujols, but is manager Mike Scioscia safe?

4. The Mets are in the news for David Wright being pulled from a game, and also a topic for an emailer, as well as Atlanta’s offense and success for certain days of the week.

5. Wednesday’s schedule features the ESPN matchup of Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson, a pair of right-handers that the metrics do not favor.

So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, because we’re never removed early for the fear of retaliation.

Forget Albert Pujols. There's another reason to watch the Los Angeles Angels, and his name is Mike Trout.

For all the hype Bryce Harper has rightfully received, it's time to start giving a few headlines to another rookie phenom, time to give the Left Coast a little love. Trout went 3-for-4 with a home run, a stolen base and three runs scored in the Angels' 4-0 victory over the A's on Tuesday. In 15 games since getting recalled from Triple-A, Trout is hitting .316 BA/.369 OBP/.561 SLG, reminding Angels fans what an All-Star batting line is supposed to look like and why a homegrown, five-tool rookie with young, fresh legs is a player to get more pumped about watching than a money-for-hire Hall of Famer you purchased on the free-agent market.

So while we wait for Pujols to get untracked, maybe the Angels' answer to their offensive prayers -- they've been shut out an MLB-leading eight times -- is a kid who doesn't turn 21 until August.

Against Bartolo Colon, he took a middle-in fastball and crushed it just to the right of center field, off the back wall behind the center-field fence in Anaheim. There aren't many leadoff hitters who can mash a pitch with that type of authority. The other day, he showcased his quick, compact swing, yanking a 2-1 fastball from Yu Darvish well over the left-field fence in Texas. His first home run came on a 1-0 fastball off Toronto's Kyle Drabek, a 93 mph heater low in the zone that Trout hit to left-center.

I think those returns are pretty clear: Trout can do some serious damage when he gets into a fastball count.

Trout is even faster than Harper and much more advanced defensively (although he lacks Harper's arm). And for all the awe for Harper's quick rise, Trout is only a year older. Like Harper, he debuted in the majors while still 19 years old. Like the previous two 19-year-old center-field phenoms -- a couple of guys named Andruw Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. -- Trout has that broad range of skills that should make him a franchise player as he matures.

My favorite aspect of the Trout/Harper comparisons is that the two will always be linked, even though they play in different leagues and cities three time zones apart. Just like we debated Rodriguez and Jeter and Garciaparra back in the late '90s, or like New Yorkers debated Mays and Mantle and Snider in the 1950s, I'm sure we'll be endlessly debating Trout and Harper for years to come.

The other highly rated prospects entering the season were Tampa Bay Rays lefty Matt Moore and Mariners catcher/designed hitter Jesus Montero. They aren't off to impressive starts like Trout and Harper, but let's take a closer look at them as well.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
I'll make this one brief. We've seen Harper's lightning-quick bat speed and raw power with his home runs in back-to-back games -- one blast to dead center and the one Tuesday to deep right-center. We've also seen a few misplays in the field, however, from losing a ball in the darkened skies Sunday to dropping a fly ball Monday.

And of course, we've seen the rocket arm and the top-grade athleticism. There's no reason to believe he can't be a superb fielder with more experience. I think the biggest positive is his strikeout rate hasn't been excessive, with 11 in 60 at-bats. Along with his ability to hit left-handers, that was the big concern of his premature call-up. While there were initial thoughts that his time in the majors would be temporary, his play and the Nationals' injuries mean he's here to stay.

Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays
When I polled the SweetSpot network bloggers before the season for their American League rookie of the year predictions, Moore came out on top, outpointing Darvish. I wasn't quite as optimistic, as I believed Moore's spectacular playoff performance against the Rangers raised expectations to unrealistic levels. The only rookie starter since 2000 to pitch at least 162 innings with an ERA less than 3.00 was Jeremy Hellickson, and his flukey .224 average on balls in play had something to do with that. With Moore, I still wanted to see a guy who had the consistent command needed to dominate in the majors.

That's been a big issue with him so far, as he's walked 22 batters in 39 innings, a rate of 5.1 walks per nine. As Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Info points out, Moore also has struggled with runners on base:


Justin also writes that Moore "continues to leave entirely too many balls up in the zone, ranking sixth out of 115 pitchers in percentage of total pitches 'up' in the zone." This ties into Moore having the third-highest walk rate (12.4 percent) among starters, behind only Ubaldo Jimenez and Drabek, and six home runs allowed in seven starts.

There are no major issues here, other than pointing out that most young pitchers do go through a learning curve. Hellickson -- who doesn't have the raw stuff Moore owns -- set the bar high with his own rookie campaign, but that type of season is the exception.

Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners
It's also a mixed bag so far with Montero. With five home runs, he's displayed the power stroke scouts projected. His overall batting line of .256/.285/.411, however, isn't much to get excited about, as the occasional long ball is marred by a poor 29/6 strikeout/walk ratio.

There are a few things going on here. He has expanded the strike zone, swinging at 36.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. That's not necessarily a career-killing attribute (Josh Hamilton currently has the second-highest rate in the majors), but it's among the 30 worst percentages so far. The bigger problem is he isn't making contract on those pitches and certainly not good contact. He's swinging and missing at those pitches 56.6 percent of the time, which again places him among the 30 worst rates.

When you dig deeper into the numbers, it's pretty clear what's happening. Check out the heat maps below. On the left, Montero against "hard" stuff, and on the right, Montero against "soft" stuff.



Against "hard" stuff, he's hitting .362 (25-for-69) with four home runs and five doubles. Against "soft" stuff, he's hitting .133 (8-for-60) with one home run and no doubles. So if pitchers get ahead in the count, they can get Montero to chase the offspeed stuff out of the zone.

A final issue is Montero's ability -- or lack of it -- to pull the ball. While he's known for his opposite-field power, I'm not sure you can live off that trait alone. Of Montero's five home runs, two have gone to right-center, one to center and two to left-center. His hit chart is littered with fly balls to right field and the right-field line. Frankly, he just hasn't shown the ability to pull the ball with any authority. To me, this reads like a guy who can be jammed inside and will chase pitches outside. Look, the pitch recognition should improve, but he's going to have to figure out how to do more damage to all fields.

The injury to Miguel Olivo also forced the Mariners to play Montero more regularly behind the plate. I haven't seen the defensive butcher advertised, but he's clearly a work in progress. A couple of starts ago, Kevin Millwood was constantly shaking him off. However, the two were on the same page in Millwood's win over the Yankees on Sunday. Opponents are 8-for-10 stealing bases off him.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

The Washington Nationals aren’t the only team struggling to put its best nine out there on any given day. The Tampa Bay Rays have suffered another injury, losing Desmond Jennings for at least the next two weeks after placing him retroactively on the disabled list. The move dates to Saturday because Jennings was used as a pinch-hitter Friday night against the Orioles. The knee injury that pushed him to the DL had already kept him out of the starting lineup for a week.

So that's an unhappy contretemps because there’s a chance Jennings could be back sooner than the full two weeks he’ll now be gone. Not that there isn’t anything wrong with some caution, of course -- now that B.J. Upton is back in action, the Rays' outfield and DH situations might seem set: Upton in center, Ben Zobrist in right, and that tasty Matt Joyce -- Brandon Guyer platoon in left field.

But that’s the thing: It’s an asymmetric substitution. The Rays aren’t replacing Jennings’ production with an outfielder, they’re replacing it with the always flexible Zobrist. That means borrowing a bat from their infield, and giving playing time to Joe Maddon’s squad of supersubs. Now a combination of Elliot Johnson, Will Rhymes, Jeff Keppinger and Sean Rodriguez have to cover second, third and shortstop because Evan Longoria is also out.

This isn’t something the Rays can roll with all that easily, especially when we’re talking about Rodriguez (.606 OPS) or Keppinger (.663) facing right-handers, or Rhymes facing anybody. Maddon will mix and match the best he can, but the limitations of what he has to work with will become more and more apparent as the talent gets exposed or over-exposed. Johnson might be the one guy in this group with the up-side to be an adequate bat in the middle infield (PECOTA projects a one in five shot at a .720 OPS or better). That’s still lower than what they were getting from Jennings -- or could reasonably expect as he was projected to deliver .730 or so as a baseline, and sitting at .731.

What do we know? Let’s face it, six weeks ago, if you’d said that Brian Matusz would outpitch the Rays’ Matt Moore for an Orioles win, you might chalk it up to one of those things, lightning in a bottle, a random outcome, the baseball gods acting in all of their capriciousness. Or you might be willing to read into it a transient lesson, that sometimes expectations get the best of all of us, because where Moore is now, with a 5.31 ERA (and allowing 6.2 runs per 9), Matusz has been in an even deeper hole.

Maybe you’d take this one ballgame as a necessary curb to the perhaps-exaggerated enthusiasm for Moore before the season. Not to knock the young power lefty’s upside and long-term future with the Rays, but let’s remember that Clayton Kershaw didn’t become Clayton Kershaw overnight. Heck, Sandy Koufax didn’t become Sandy Koufax overnight. The hysteria that gets associated with whatever is new and exciting, the desire to see today’s prospect become tomorrow’s star can lead you to too-soon enthusiasm for a top prospect. Any top prospect.

Which is why it’s worth remembering that Brian Matusz has been here. Little more than a year ago, Matusz was considered a top pitching prospect, not just in the Orioles organization, but anywhere, in baseball, on the planet. Heck, the entire baseball-related universe. After a nice season-ending spin in 2009 to make his debut (5-2, 4.63 ERA and 7.7 K/9), Baseball America rated him the fifth-best prospect in baseball, period. After a solid first full season in 2010 (4.30 ERA with 7.3 K/9), the former fourth overall pick of the 2008 draft looked like he would be a key contributor to any impending baseball renaissance in Baltimore.

In the virtual world, Moore topped that this past winter by being the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball, per Baseball America. But Matusz’s tale of intervening woe should provide an important cautionary note about getting too wrapped up in any young pitching prospect. In 2011, Matusz got lit up, posting a 10.69 ERA.

During and after Matusz’s 2011 implosion, the explanations offered up as his potential became so much street pizza were legion: Maybe it was because he wasn’t throwing enough sinkers, maybe because his changeup flattened out and maybe it was because his work ethic wasn’t perfect. After all, these days a little dose of PitchF/X analysis can make everybody an expert in what you oughta do. And maybe it was easy to get down as a young guy on a bad Baltimore ballclub -- say what you will about talent always shining through, but as Kevin Goldstein always likes to say, players aren’t Strat cards. The Orioles have been D.O.A. on so many Opening Days that you can understand how anybody banished to Baltimore by the Rule IV draft might mull the point of it all.

This year, Matusz is better, but far from good: A WHIP of 1.7 to 1.8 reflects a guy who’s getting hit, and the batting average on balls in play that he’s allowing (.349 before Saturday’s start) reiterates that bit of obviousness. You can’t just say that “regression” is going to bring that down -- the Orioles’ defense rates as one of the best in baseball. This year’s strikeout rate of 6.2 K/9 may sound nice, but it’s headed in the wrong direction as strikeout rates keep getting higher every year, which is why he’s below average at fooling some of the people some of the time, for his career as well as this year.

Which goes a long way toward saying that Matt Moore’s latest loss is a great reminder that it’s a rare top prospect who becomes truly great overnight. Good as he might be, whoever he may be, perhaps nobody out on the mound is as good as you wishcast for him. As Tom Hanks’ fictional Jimmy Dugan exclaimed in A League of Their Own, “It’s supposed to be hard! If it wasn’t hard, everyone would do it. The hard is what makes it great.”

Moore had his moment in the sun last October, beating the Rangers in the American League Division Series, and there’s nothing you should knock about that -- it was a great game pitched by a tremendous young talent. But it’s worth remembering that Bob Wolcott had that sort of introduction to baseball when he was a rookie, spinning a win for the Mariners in the 1995 American League Championship Series against the Indians with fewer than 40 big-league innings to his credit. When you’re good enough to get the opportunity, you’re good enough to do something magical, something people will remember you by.

Going up against Moore, Saturday night belonged to Matusz, as far as that goes, and his importance to the Orioles going forward, even as their fourth or fifth starter du jour, reflects how tentative and potential-laden are their possibilities if the AL East no longer belongs to the Yankees or Red Sox, or even the Rays. If Matusz lives up to the billing that was once automatically his, he’ll join Adam Jones and Matt Wieters and Chris Davis and Nick Markakis in the ranks of young Orioles who are finally living up to the expectations that we -- meaning you and me, and not just prospect mavens and experts -- larded up on top of the difficulties that every player has to deal with when it comes to breaking through. If Matusz breaks through now, at the same time as so many other young O’s, it’ll be a bit of redemption for a prospect many folks may have forgotten deserved it. Points to him for providing the reminder.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

We ended a fine week of Baseball Today podcasts with Mark Simon and I talking about what happened the night before and previewing the weekend, and there was lots in between.

1. Josh Beckett didn’t make a lot of friends -- with his performance Thursday night or his comments afterward -- but what is his future with the Red Sox?

2. Staying in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays added a designated hitter to the fold, but can Vladimir Guerrero really make a difference? We might surprise you.

3. Our Simon Says segment discusses the viability of Bryan LaHair, and focuses on the defensive leaderboard.

4. Emailers want to know about pitching the eighth inning versus the ninth, the most common game scores, and Eduardo Nunez’s ability to play defense.

5. It’s a big weekend for the Angels as they face the Rangers, but we’ve also got our collective eyes on the big AL East battle for first place, and why number 8,000 is significant for an NL East team.

So download and listen to Friday’s Baseball Today podcast, and please have a great weekend!

SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield and I argued so much on Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast that fisticuffs nearly ensued! OK, that last part isn’t true, but it was fun!

1. David Robertson blows up in the ninth inning Wednesday, which some say means he can only pitch in a setup role. We can’t begin to describe how ridiculous that is.

2. Meanwhile, Josh Beckett is out playing golf, eating chicken and drinking beer. Talk about a story that isn’t a story ... until Dave calls him the most overrated pitcher of the past decade. True or false?

3. Jake Peavy is pitching like a star and Tim Lincecum is not. Which right-hander would you choose for the rest of the season?

4. Our emailers have thoughts about ripping the surprising starts for the Baltimores and Clevelands of baseball, as well as schedule strength for the last-place Red Sox and Phillies.

5. On Thursday’s schedule we’ll get an exciting matchup in the Bronx as well as Nationals stud Stephen Strasburg on the hill, but there’s a certain AL Central pitcher that really needs to step up!

So download and listen to Thursday’s energetic Baseball Today podcast, and learn why you never leave a baseball game early. Ever.

After a wild and wacky weekend around baseball, Mark Simon and I gathered to record Monday’s Baseball Today podcast , with hitters pitching, Power Rankings and ridiculous emails as our backdrop!

1. Chris Davis bests Darnell McDonald in a crazy and lengthy extra-inning affair at Fenway Park. Should hitters be pitching at all? And what does our able producer think about the struggling Red Sox and their manager?

2. The Washington Nationals needed a big weekend against the rival Phillies, and they got it, though the news from the outfield was a bit mixed.

3. It’s a Battle of the Beltway! Which team posted the better spot in the Power Rankings between the Orioles and Nationals? Also, why do Mark and I differ so much on the Rays?

4. Our Simon Says segment focuses on the weekly leaderboard and other players struggling worse than Albert Pujols. By the way, didja know he finally homered?

5. Our emailers have thoughts about the All-animal lineup and rotation, and the most common final score!

So download and listen to Monday’s Baseball Today podcast, as we tell you who is most likely to throw a no-hitter today, and why a certain Phillies pitcher will have many eyes watching him.

The Society for American Baseball Research recently cranked out a history of the 1970 Baltimore Orioles, appropriately titled, Pitching, Defense, and Three-Run Homers, reflecting the three things that their skipper, Earl Weaver, always preached as the three most reliable pillars of victory in baseball.

And you know what? The rules, let alone the basic principles of how you win ballgames, really haven’t changed that much since those days. Even with the addition of the designated hitter in 1973, today’s American League is scoring just 4.3 runs per team per game against the 4.2 runs per game that the league did in 1970, back when pitchers still had to hit in the junior circuit. Which suggests that, even with a pile of advanced metrics to better assess player value and with better tools (statistical and technological) to evaluate player performance, teams are in much the same boat as far as what it takes to win. Want to contend? You’ll want pitching and defense and scoring runs on home runs, early and often.

Which is where the Rays come in, as well as the recently rehatched Orioles, because that same three-point formula for success is one that the these two teams -- especially the Rays with their significantly more analytical bent than Weaver’s old 3x5 note cards from the pre-PC days in the dugout -- have taken to heart as they seek to be giant-killers in the AL East. Or maybe that should be giant-payroll-killers, because the Boston Red Sox haven’t finished better than third since 2009, and the way this year is going for them, getting back to the postseason may not be in the cards. So keep that in mind: The Rays are a power already, but are the Orioles about to become one?

So let’s start with defense, tough as that is to get a handle on. The Orioles currently rank third in the league in park-adjusted defensive efficiency (PADE), reflecting an improvement on defense that should speak well for their future if they can keep it up. PADE is the metric that adjusts the simple rate of outs created on balls in play for where the teams play, and was created by James Click for Baseball Prospectus back before he was the director of baseball research and development for ... why, none other than the Tampa Bay Rays.

Guess who ranked first in PADE last year? The Tampa Bay Rays. They rank a much more modest 21st overall at present, but they’re also trying to recover from a series of injuries that have made Joe Maddon’s day-to-day tailored lineups into even more of a daily guessing game; when the Rays come back toward the top before the end of the year, don’t act surprised. And can the Orioles keep that up? It may not be easy, but getting Mark Reynolds off the field a lot more often this year than last is a good start.

So, how about fence-busting power on offense? There has already been a good amount of deserved attention placed on the Rays’ power on offense. Through Saturday’s action, they’re fourth in the league in total homers hit, and their "Guillen number" -- the percentage of their total runs they’re scoring on home runs -- is also fourth in the league at 40.8 percent. But guess who’s doing better in both regards? The Yankees, of course -- every bit as unsubtle as the day Babe Ruth donned pinstripes, they’re scoring 48 percent of their runs on homers.

But the other team ahead of them in both homers and percentage of runs scored on homers are the Orioles, thanks in no small part to Adam Jones, Matt Wieters and Chris Davis living up to several years’ worth of anticipation. They’re doing it without the help of single-minded slugger Reynolds, and without much production from Nick Markakis, but just running through the names gives you reason to believe the O’s will be able to keep producing thunder with the lumber. All five of them are between 26 and 28 years old, right around when hitters are generally predicted to produce their peak seasons.

Which leaves pitching, where you might be surprised to learn that the Orioles have notched more quality starts in the early going with 15 to the Rays’ 13. The Rays’ rotation comes out on top for runs allowed per nine (3.71 to 4.04), but considering that the Rays get their deserved touts for their top talents like Matt Moore and big-name starters like David Price and James Shields, you can be a little impressed with how the Orioles’ relatively anonymous front five have been doing.

But here again, that’s where you might expect more from the Rays going forward than the Orioles, because one-month Cinderella stories have more than their share of pumpkins instead of happy endings. While Jake Arrieta looks like the real deal, it’s going to be difficult for bend-don’t-break defense-dependent starters like Tommy Hunter and Wei-Yin Chen to keep beating people without a lot of help from their friends.

It’s especially hard to know what to expect from Jason Hammel going forward; if he keeps striking out 24 percent of opposing batters, he’ll be the elite starter he’s pitched like in six starts so far, but it’s such a remarkable development in the context of his career considering that he was striking out less than two-thirds that many guys over the previous six seasons.

If the Orioles have fixed Hammel, as Rick Sutcliffe has suggested on Baseball Tonight, it’ll be a great example of a former Rays prospect that his former team might regret letting get away. And if the Rays and Orioles are going to be serious about becoming the new twin powers in the AL East, it’ll ratchet up that rivalry another notch.

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Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.