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Heading into the final few games of the season, I heard an interview with Joe Maddon where he was asked what it will take for the Rays to get through these next few games and into the postseason.

Part of his response: "You need your best players to perform." (Or something of that ilk.)

The two best players in this tiebreaker game were David Price and Evan Longoria, especially with Yu Darvish having pitched Sunday for the Rangers and Adrian Beltre playing on a sore hamstring. We spend a lot of time these days breaking down everything that goes into a baseball game, and that's fun and informative and interesting, and dissecting all the numbers and strategies and potential strategies are part of what makes baseball so appealing to many of us.

But sometimes the analysis is simple. Sometimes you just need your best players to perform. Price was outstanding, Longoria homered with one of his three hits, and the Rays beat the Rangers 5-2 to keep their season alive.

For Price, he exorcised some personal demons of sorts. He had defeated the Rangers just once in 11 career starts, including three postseason starts. His career ERA in Texas was over 10.00 in four games. He wasn't necessarily dominant, striking out just four in throwing a complete game. He had pretty good command of his fastball, however, and basically challenged the Rangers to hit it. He threw fastballs on 73 of his 118 pitches, and while the Rangers swung and missed at just one fastball all game, they didn't do any severe damage against it, or at least not enough damage. (Price actually induced just four swing-and-misses the entire game.)

The Rangers didn't exactly throw out a strong lineup. With Jeff Baker sidelined with a sports hernia, Ron Washington's starting nine included three lefties -- Price held left-handed batters to a .195 average with just two home runs -- and two of those, Leonys Martin and Mitch Moreland, are pretty weak against lefties. Nelson Cruz hadn't played in two months due to his suspension, Beltre hurt his hamstring on Sunday and Elvis Andrus had just 25 extra-base hits on the season. It was a game where the Rangers shouldn't have expected to score many runs.

It didn't help that Andrus got picked off in the first inning and Ian Kinsler got picked off in the third. Washington had apparently stressed to his club to play aggressive, but in the end those were two costly mistakes.

Once the Rays took a 4-2 lead, the key at-bat against Price came in the eighth after Kinsler doubled down the third-base line with one out. Price was over 100 pitches, and you could have expected to see Joel Peralta in the game to face the right-handed threesome of Andrus, Alex Rios and Beltre. Peralta was warming up, but he can be a little home run-prone (seven home runs) and Maddon might have been thinking of the four outings in September where Peralta allowed two or more runs.

Sometimes you just go with your best.

Andrus laid down a near-perfect bunt down the first-base line on an 0-1 pitch, but Price made a terrific play (especially for a lefty), flipping the ball with his glove to first to get Andrus. Rios grounded out to shortstop to end the threat. What if Andrus had hit away? We'll never know, which is the beauty of "what if" in baseball. With a little more cushion after Sam Fuld created a run in the top of the ninth, Maddon let Price begin the bottom of the ninth. Why not? One-two-three, game over.

As for Longoria, he lined a single to right-center in the first inning off rookie lefty Martin Perez to send Wil Myers to third; Myers would score on Delmon Young's sac fly. In the third, Perez faced Longoria with two outs and a runner on first. Longoria took an inside 94 mph fastball and drilled it into the wind tunnel in right-center, just clearing the fence for a two-run homer.

I can't really fault Washington too much in this game. His bullpen had been worked hard in the final few days (although he inexplicably used closer Joe Nathan for a fourth straight game on Sunday to close out a 6-2 lead), and while you could argue for a Matt Garza or Alexi Ogando earlier in the game, Garza hasn't been good and Ogando started on Friday.

Perez settled down after the Longoria home run, and Washington correctly yanked him with one out in the sixth when Longoria came up again. Ogando just didn't have much in this game. Longoria doubled off him, and with two outs, pinch hitter David DeJesus doubled him home (you could argue that Neal Cotts should have been brought in there).

In the end, the Rays are the better team. The AL East was easily the best division in the majors this year and the Rangers made it this far in large part due to their 17-2 record against the lowly Astros, an opponent the Rays didn't get to face 19 times.

Now the Rays get the Indians, and while the game will be in Cleveland, the Rays have to like their chances with the underrated Alex Cobb, who went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA in 22 starts, on the mound. Cobb throws an excellent changeup that dives away from left-handed hitters -- they hit .214/.245/.325 off it -- but he changed the grip on his curveball last summer and it's given him a second out pitch alongside the changeup. Cobb learned the grip from former teammate James Shields and batters have hit .260 off it, but with just one home run in 100 at-bats.

The Rays will face another rookie in hard-throwing Danny Salazar, who has made 10 career starts, but averages 96 mph on his fastball and has reached 100. The Indians have held him to tight pitch counts, going more than 89 pitches just once and held under 80 in five of his starts, so Terry Francona will likely tell Salazar to cut it loose for as long as he can go and turn it into a bullpen game early on.

Thanks to Price, Maddon will also enter with a rested bullpen, so there should be plenty of pitching changes and possible pinch-hitting moves to discuss and argue about.

Of course, it could be that it will come down to the best player. The Indians are good and they're hot, having won 10 in a row, but Longoria will once again be the best player in this game.

FYI: He's hit 22 of his 32 home runs off fastballs.

There were some moments there when it appeared the Tampa Bay Rays would complete a mini collapse of sorts, especially when manager Joe Maddon lost his cool as the Rays were starting to melt down in the seventh inning and he had an Earl Weaver moment, getting ejected after arguing with plate umpire Paul Schreiber following a trip to the mound.

The Rays had entered the weekend in control of their own wild-card destiny, but while the Indians and Rangers were beating the Twins and Angels, Tampa had lost twice to Toronto. A six-run first inning made it appear it would be an easy win on Sunday, but the Rays saw a 7-0 lead slide to 7-3 in the sixth, then 7-4 in the seventh and then 7-6 in the eighth as closer Fernando Rodney gave up two run-scoring singles and then a walk that loaded the bases. But he struck out Moses Sierra with two outs and got through the ninth and now the Rays will play the Rangers in the tiebreaker game on Monday night to move on to the wild-card game.

On paper, the pitching matchup goes to the Rays, with David Price starting against Martin Perez. The Rays set up their rotation back in early September to line up Price to start the wild-card game or, if necessary, this game. The Rangers had to scramble at the end and, needing a win on Sunday, started ace Yu Darvish, so the start here falls to the young left-hander.

Before we get to Price's checkered big-game history -- especially against the Rangers -- I'm left with two thoughts on this year's wild-card race.

First, the Rays are arguably better than the Indians or Rangers. By that, I mean the AL East was clearly a tougher division than the Central or the West. AL East teams went 242-188 outside the division, the Central went 210-220 and the West went 197-233. If the Rays had played 19 games against the Astros and Mariners instead of the Orioles and Blue Jays, they would have likely won a few more games.

But them's the breaks, I guess, and strength of schedule matters only for NCAA tournament seedings. Plus, the Rangers are hosting the game because they did win the season series, 4-3.

The second issue is the decision the Rays made to start Wil Myers in the minor leagues and not recall him until June 18. While the Rays can claim they wanted Myers to work on cutting down his strikeouts, we also know this move is something the Rays have done in the past to save money. By delaying Myers' call-up date, they saved not only a season on his free agency but also postponed his initial eligibility for arbitration by a year. That will save them millions down the road, but maybe it will end up costing them a playoff berth this year.

From Opening Day until June 17, Rays right fielders hit .246/.327/.427, not awful but below Myers' .295/.353/.482 line. Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist played a lot out there early on, so in essence the Rays were playing guys like Ryan Roberts and Sam Fuld early on instead of Myers. I think it's fair to suggest the Rays would have at least one more win if Myers had been called up six weeks earlier.

OK, so what about Monday's game? While Price is understandably the guy Maddon wants to give the ball to, it's also true that the Rangers sort of have the whammy on him. Price is 1-4 with a 5.98 ERA in eight regular-season starts against Texas and is 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA in three postseason starts. Those are the only three playoff starts of Price's career, and remember also that on that memorable final day of 2011 he started and dug a big hole for the Rays when he allowed six runs in four innings to the Yankees. So he has a checkered past in big games.

After missing all of June with a triceps injury, Price returned and had the best stretch of his career, eight starts where he went 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA, a 44-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and had three complete games where he threw fewer than 100 pitches. He's allowed two runs in each of his past four starts, but hasn't had quite the same efficiency. What he's done, however, is keep the ball in the park as he's given up just two home runs in his past 11 starts.

In a move to perhaps counteract Price's dominance against left-handers, the Rangers announced Nelson Cruz will be activated for Monday's game. They didn't say whether he would be in the starting lineup, but you have to think Ron Washington may take that chance even though Cruz hasn't played a major league game since Aug. 4.

The past week or so, Washington has gone with Craig Gentry in left, Leonys Martin in center and Alex Rios in right, with David Murphy, Jeff Baker and others rotating through the DH slot. Martin hasn't hit lefties (.231/.286/.300), but an outfield of Gentry/Martin/Rios is the best defensive alignment the Rangers can throw out there. Baker will be in the lineup somewhere, considering he's slugged .667 against left-handers (10 home runs in 105 at-bats). An infielder by trade, Baker has started 15 games at first base. If I'm Washington, I keep the outfield intact, play Baker at first, bench Mitch Moreland and use Cruz as the designated hitter.

(Update: Baker has a hernia and has been ruled out from playing in the field the past few weeks. Plus he hasn't homered since August, so we'll likely see Moreland at first but maybe still see Cruz at DH.)

Perez doesn't have Price's résumé, but he has a 3.05 ERA over his past 11 starts. The peripherals aren't quite as good, with just 51 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings. However, Perez has a great changeup that has actually made him more effective against right-handed batters. Maddon is pretty limited in his lefty-bashing options at the plate. You may see David DeJesus, who has delivered some big hits down the stretch, but you're unlikely to see Matt Joyce, who hit .167 against lefties.

Washington, of course, has a deep bullpen so he'll have the luxury of a quick hook and the ability to mix and match with righties and lefties. Remember, expanded rosters are in play since this is simply Game No. 163 of the regular season. While Perez has been solid of late, I don't think Washington should play around unless Perez is absolutely dealing; a quick hook should be in order. On the other hand, in sweeping the Angels, Washington did use Tanner Scheppers and Joe Nathan all four games and Neal Cotts in three. Not that Scheppers or Nathan will be unavailable, but it probably means Washington is even more unlikely to be a little creative and maybe stretch those two for four or five outs instead of three.

Given where the Rays were a week ago, I feel like more pressure is actually on them. The Rangers won their last seven just to get here and have to feel good just to have one more game. If the Rays lose, they'd become the first team since the 2002-03 Mariners to miss the playoffs two straight years while winning 90-plus games, so they face the frustration of another excellent season that falls just short of the postseason.

I don't see Price going the distance, so it becomes a battle of the bullpens in the late innings. Advantage, Rangers. I'll say Texas 4, Tampa Bay 3, with Fernando Rodney taking the loss in the bottom of the ninth.

Here are my choices for the 2013 American League All-Star team:

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Twins (.324/.404/.476, 11 HRs, 47 RBIs, 5.2 WAR)
There's not a real clear choice, as Mauer played just 75 of his 113 games behind the plate, but he's the best hitter among the catchers and threw out a league-leading 43 percent of base stealers. Carlos Santana has good offensive numbers, but he played a lot of first base and DH and struggled defensively. Jason Castro's fine season was buried in the Astros' awfulness, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia has hit .272, raising his average 50 points from last year, while bashing 40 doubles and 14 home runs. If he had played a little more behind the plate -- he started 95 games -- he might have been my choice.

First base: Chris Davis, Orioles (.287/.370/.637, 53 HRs, 138 RBIs, 6.7 WAR)
Davis is the easy choice in a weak year at first base in the AL. The only other two first basemen to slug .500 were Edwin Encarnacion, who spent a large chunk of his time at DH, and Brandon Moss, a platoon player. Davis joined Babe Ruth and Albert Belle as the only players with 50 home runs and 40 doubles in a season.

Second base: Robinson Cano, Yankees (.313/.383/.514, 27 HRs, 106 RBIs, 7.6 WAR)
In a year when so much went wrong with the Yankees, Cano was the one constant, missing just one game and putting up his usual excellent numbers. Now the Yankees have to decide exactly how much they're willing to pay for those numbers. Teams like the Dodgers and Nationals could pursue the free agent this winter.

Third base: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.347/.441/.637, 44 HRs, 137 RBIs, 7.1 WAR)
Despite the injury issues that have slowed him in September (.265, just two extra-base hits and seven RBIs), Cabrera remains the likely MVP winner, thanks in part to a .397/.529/.782 mark with runners in scoring position. It's a deep position with Josh Donaldson having his own MVP-caliber season, Manny Machado catching everything at the hot corner and Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre once again doing everything, but it's hard to deny Miggy's dominance with the bat.

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy, Orioles (.262/.305/.432, 25 HRs, 74 RBIs, 3.6 WAR)
There's not an obvious guy at the position. Hardy is good defensively and has power, but that .305 OBP lowers his offensive value. Yunel Escobar may have had the best year on defense, but a slow start dragged down his offense. Elvis Andrus plays great defense and has 41 steals but doesn't give you much at the plate. Jed Lowrie stayed healthy and hit but lacks range. In the end, I went with Hardy, who has played 157 games and gives you a little on both sides of the ball.

Left field: Mike Trout, Angels (.323/.431/.554, 26 HRs, 94 RBIs, 9.1 WAR)
OK, I cheated a little bit since Trout actually started more games in center than left. But the state of left field in the AL is pretty pathetic, with Alex Gordon and Michael Brantley the only other two rated as even 2.0 WAR players.

Center field: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox (.297/.355/.421, 8 HRs, 52 RBIs, 5.7 WAR)
Ellsbury also stole 52 bases in 56 attempts, the second-best percentage ever for a player with at least 50 steals. Orioles fans will argue for Adam Jones, who has 33 home runs and 108 RBIs, but he's drawn just 25 walks so his OBP is a mediocre .318 and his defense doesn't match Ellsbury's.

Right field: Shane Victorino, Red Sox (.297/.354/.456, 15 HRs, 61 RBIs, 6.2 WAR)
He's been solid offensively -- including hitting .303 and slugging .515 while having to bat right-handed against right-handed pitchers after a hamstring injury prevented him from batting left-handed. He has been terrific defensively with 24 Defensive Runs Saved, the sixth-best total in the majors at any position. Again, nobody with big numbers here on offense, especially with Jose Bautista's season-ending injury, but Victorino is a worthy selection.

Designated hitter: David Ortiz, Red Sox (.308/.395/.565, 30 HRs, 103 RBIs, 4.3 WAR)
At 37, he's still going strong with his seventh 30-homer, 100-RBI season. Hall of Famer? He's up to 431 career home runs and 1,429 RBIs.

Starting pitchers: Max Scherzer, Tigers (21-3, 2.90 ERA, 6.6 WAR); Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners (14-6, 2.66 ERA, 7.0 WAR); Chris Sale, White Sox (11-14, 3.07 ERA, 7.0 WAR); Yu Darvish, Rangers (13-9, 2.82 ERA, 5.7 WAR); Anibal Sanchez, Tigers (14-8, 2.64 ERA, 6.0 WAR)
Apologies to Bartolo Colon and Felix Hernandez, and even Clay Buchholz, who went 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 16 starts.

Left-handed setup guy: Neal Cotts, Rangers (7-3, 1.13 ERA)
Cotts was one of the great stories of the season. He hadn't pitched in the majors since 2009, having Tommy John and four hip surgeries in the intervening years. He pitched in 25 games for the Rangers in Triple-A last year and started there again this season before getting recalled. In 55 2/3 innings, he's allowed just eight runs and 35 hits while striking out 63.

Right-handed setup guy: David Robertson, Yankees (5-1, 2.07 ERA)
For those worried about replacing Mariano Rivera as Yankees closer, the bigger question may actually be: Who replaces Robertson as the eighth-inning guy?

Closer: Koji Uehara, Red Sox (4-1, 21 saves, 1.10 ERA)
Apologies to Kansas City's Greg Holland, who has a 1.23 ERA and 46 saves, and Texas' Joe Nathan, who has a 1.41 ERA and 43 saves. But Uehara, who began the year in middle relief, has put up one of the most dominant relief seasons ever, limiting batters to a .129 average with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 100-to-9.

Bud Selig has officially announced that he'll step down as commissioner in January 2015. Jerry Crasnick will assess his legacy (hey, if Bowie Kuhn made the Hall of Fame I suspect Selig will eventually as well), but here are five key issues for the next commissioner to address.

1. Instant replay and quality of umpiring

We finally get expanded replay next season, so that should help resolve some of the controversial and blown calls. It remains to be seen how effective and efficient the system will be, but it can be adjusted as necessary. Just as importantly, the new commissioner has to work to improve consistency of ball/strike calls and reduce the episodes of ump rage.

Right now, the best umps (Eric Cooper, Chad Fairchild, Phil Cuzzi) get about 90 percent of ball/strike calls correct, according to our pitch data; the worst umps (Wally Bell, Tim Welke, Kerwin Danley, Jerry Meals) are at 86 percent. That difference may not seem like a lot, but that's a spread of 10 incorrect calls per 250 pitches. Even a 90 percent correct rate means the best umps are missing about 25 to 30 ball/strike calls a game. Maybe the human eye can't do better, but MLB needs to pay its umpire better, and in particular pay minor league umpires a living wage, so you can recruit from a wider field of candidates.

2. To DH or not to DH?

This ridiculousness has gone on too long. You simply can't have one sport with two leagues playing under different rules. The answer seems to be pretty obvious: Get rid of the designated hitter. There were only four full-time DHs this year: David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, Billy Butler and Kendrys Morales. They all batted at least 500 times as a DH. Nobody else even had 300 plate appearances (including Adam Dunn, who played a lot of first base). With so few teams actually using a DH, the resolution should be pretty clear. OK, so Butler is the youngest of those four and signed through 2015. No DH starting in 2016.

3. Oakland and Tampa Bay stadium issues

Look, both organizations have shown they can compete and win in spite of their lousy ballparks and low revenue. Part of the problem is that other teams are tired of propping up the Rays and A's. "The key here is to recognize that without the revenue-sharing dollars, we wouldn't even be able to compete or do what we're doing," Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said in August. "The other owners are looking at this and saying, 'How many years is this going to be? How much money is this going to be to a failing situation?'"

Oakland's problem is more easily solved. The A's want to move to San Jose; the Giants hold territorial rights to Santa Clara County (given to them years ago by the A's). A three-quarters majority vote of all owners can return those rights to the A's, but Selig has refused to call for a vote, wanting unanimity, including the Giants. Well, of course, the Giants would vote against it. The new commish should side with the A's here and get them, literally, out of the sewage.

4. Tanking

I've written about this issue. Buster Olney addressed it the other day. The current collective bargaining agreement makes it beneficial for teams to lose -- either to get a higher draft position (and thus more money to spend in the draft) or finish with one of the 10 worst records and thus have a protected first-round pick when signing free agents. What kind of sport essentially encourages tanking for 10 or more teams?

This season, we'll likely finish with 10 teams and maybe 11 winning 90 games ... and seven to 10 losing 90 games. You don't want to read too much into one season, but it's possible we'll see more seasons like this: Contenders and non-contenders, which makes for a less interesting sport. Back in 2004, only five teams won 90 and six lost 90. That's a healthier sport.

But the draft rules tie into another problem. For the most part, the owners love the new rules and capping the amount teams can spend in the draft. Why give more money to amateurs when you can pocket some of that money instead and buy new leather seats for your private jet? The long-range issue here is obvious: You risk talented athletes choosing other sports as signing bonuses decrease. The new commissioner should find ways to get more athletes playing baseball, rather than potentially pushing them towards a different sport.

5. The schedule

Nobody likes the fact that interleague play is now a constant throughout the season, but that's unavoidable with 15 teams in each league. But the unbalanced schedule creates issues of teams competing for the same thing (a wild-card spot) while playing vastly different schedules.

My own personal pet peeve is that the season drags too long into October. Last year's World Series games in Detroit were played in brutally cold weather. Depending on which teams advance, you're often playing your most important games of the year in your worst weather. The World Series can be as much a test of ability as a test of weather fortitude. There isn't a good solution, unless your shorten the regular season or the playoffs, add some doubleheaders, or -- god forbid -- play some World Series games during the day. The weather in Detroit in the afternoon last October was quite lovely. At night? Not so much.

Let's take a break from these hectic final days of the season and look back at the 10 best decisions of the season. To me, these were decisions based on good analysis or good scouting or both, with a reasonable chance of working out. Signing Zack Greinke is easy. Having Scott Kazmir work out is good luck. These were calculated decisions that paid off.

10. Tigers don't overpay for a closer. Throughout the offseason, during spring training and into April and May, there were cries for the Tigers to go out and acquire a Proven Closer. General manager Dave Dombrowski resisted and eventually veteran setup man Joaquin Benoit took over as closer ... and has been perfectly great, going 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 23 saves and just one blown save. Why give up a good prospect for a closer when one isn't that hard to find?

9. Rays acquire Yunel Escobar. Last year, the Rays got so desperate for some offense at shorstop that Joe Maddon eventually had to move Ben Zobrist there. Escobar went from Toronto to Miami in the big Jose Reyes-Josh Johnson-Mark Buehrle trade, and then Tampa Bay got him for marginal prospect Derek Dietrich. Escobar wore out his welcome in Atlanta and Toronto, but hasn't had any issues in Tampa. The Rays didn't panic when Escobar was hitting under .200 in mid-May. He turned things around and has had a solid .258/.333/.370 season. These days, that's good offense from a shortstop.

8. Dodgers sign Hyun-Jin Ryu. For all the talk about the Dodgers' enormous payroll, they brought Ryu over from Korea with a $25.7 million bid and a reasonable six-year, $36 million contract. That's about $10 million a year for a pitcher who has gone 14-7 with a 2.97 ERA. That's only $8 million more than the Cubs gave for four years of Edwin Jackson, who has a 4.74 ERA. Chalk it up to good scouting.

7. A's trade for Jed Lowrie. Oakland had terrible production from its shortstops in 2012 and only had to give up platoon first baseman/DH Chris Carter to acquire the injury-prone Lowrie. It was a trade with little risk for the A's but high upside: Yes, Carter had power but he was never going to be a star with all of his strikeouts. Lowrie has stayed healthy and been one of the top hitting shortstops in the majors.

6. Reds trade for Shin-Soo Choo. This was a perfect example of a team identifying an obvious need -- the Reds needed a leadoff hitter -- and going out and solving the problem. Even though he struggles against left-handers, Choo is second in the National League in on-base percentage, walks and runs. His defense in center field has been a minor liability instead of a major one and the Reds are heading back to the playoffs.

5. Red Sox acquire good clubhouse guys. More importantly, Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes also produced on the field. Victorino was a signing I liked even though it was widely panned -- I liked the idea of having a second center fielder in right field and a good option in case Jacoby Ellsbury got injured. Victorino's offense has been a bonus and his defense has been terrific.

4. Marlins give Jose Fernandez a job out of spring training. Fernandez didn't pitch above A-ball last year, so when he broke camp with the Marlins everybody wondered why the desire to rush him and start his service time when the Marlins weren't going to be any good. But sometimes you have to do the obvious thing: Like Dwight Gooden in 1984, Fernandez had to be in the major leagues because he was that good. All Fernandez did was post a 2.19 ERA and hold batters to a .522 OPS, the lowest for a starter since Pedro Martinez in 2000.

3. Pirates sign Russell Martin. The Pirates made several smart moves -- trading for Mark Melancon, giving the closer job to Jason Grilli, signing Francisco Liriano (although that one produced more upside than anyone could have imagined) -- but Martin was an under-the-radar move that solved a huge problem for the Pirates. Last year, the Pirates allowed 154 stolen bases while catching just 19 basestealers, an abysmal 11 percent caught stealing rate. Thanks to Martin, they've cut that total to 93 steals and 43 caught stealing, a 32 percent rate (Martin has caught 40 percent). Martin is also one of the better pitch framers around and his offense has been about league average. With what he's meant behind the plate, he could see some down-ballot MVP support.

2. Dodgers call up Yasiel Puig. It looks like an easy decision in retrospect, but this was still a 22-year-old kid with just 67 games of minor league experience, 40 of them above A ball. It took some guts to call him up in early June, even if the move was born out of a little desperation. Give credit to the Dodgers correctly analyzing the raw ability and believing he would hold his own in the majors.

1. Cardinals move Matt Carpenter to second. You can probably count the number of successful third base-to-second base conversions on one hand; players rarely move up the defensive spectrum to a tougher position, which is why many expected that Carpenter would soon return to a utility role. But in Carpenter the Cardinals had the perfect pupil: A player in his second season who wanted to break into the starting lineup, but also a 27-year-old with more maturity than most second-year players. He's a smart player with a good ethic. Plus, the Cardinals knew he could hit, not that they expected a .324 average and 55 doubles.

Look, the wild-card game is goofy. Or dumb, depending on your personal taste. Having teams play 162 regular-season games and then a one-game playoff to move on in the postseason is akin to having an NFL playoff game that lasts about six minutes.

But it certainly makes for an exciting September, at least when we have a mad scramble like we do this year in the American League. With more teams in play, we get more games in play, and that's a good thing for baseball.

I spent Wednesday night watching the Orioles and Red Sox. And the Rangers and Rays. And the Yankees and Blue Jays. And the Indians and Royals. When those games ended, I watched the end of the Reds-Astros contest. I had the TV on, the laptop, the phone. Multiple games, multiple screens, lots of action.

The great thing about this September rush is that momentum -- such as it is -- changes daily. A week ago the Orioles lost three in a row to the Yankees and looked dead. But then they beat unhittable Koji Uehara in the ninth inning on Tuesday and then they beat the Red Sox in 12 innings on Wednesday and suddenly they aren't the team that's lost games late all season but a team that looks like the squad that won all those close games last year. The Orioles are now just one game back of the Rangers for the second wild card and very much alive.

Baltimore probably had the biggest win of the night. With Tampa Bay and Texas tied for the wild card heading into the evening's action, the teams behind them were guaranteed to pick up a game in the standings with a win. The Red Sox had many opportunities to pull away but grounded into double plays in the second, third, 10th and 11th innings. In the 10th, David Ortiz grounded into a defensive-shift assisted double play -- 6-5-3, with Manny Machado showing off his old shortstop skills with a lovely turn.

Finally, the Orioles broke through in the 12th against Franklin Morales. Two singles and wild pitch put runners at second and third. John Farrell had the lefty Morales intentionally walk pinch-hitter Steve Pearce to face Machado. Not sure I agreed with the move -- Pearce was just activated from the DL and hadn't batted since Aug. 27. Morales got Machado to pop up, bringing up MVP candidate Chris Davis, a lefty-lefty showdown. Davis is a .233 hitter versus left-handers (.284 OBP); Morales had held lefties to a .167 average in limited duty.

That's the other great thing about these games: Dissecting every move, every mistake. Davis got out in front of a curveball, but managed to keep his hands back and ground the ball up the middle for a two-run single. Farrell's move was debatable; credit Davis for finding a hole just out of the reach of Dustin Pedroia.

* * * *

The biggest loss of the night goes to the Rangers. They had taken a 3-2 lead over the Rays when rookie right fielder Wil Myers made a crucial mental mistake: With Elvis Andrus on first and two outs, Adrian Beltre lined a base hit into right-center. Myers was slow to the ball and then lobbed a throw in to second baseman Ben Zobrist. Andrus hustled all the way home.

Mistakes are magnified this time of year. It's quite likely that Myers had never faced that kind of play before in the minors -- a runner with Andrus-grade speed and heads-up baserunning trying to score from first on a single. But games can be won and lost not just on physical aspect but mental aspects. Myers had a brain fart and it appeared it would cost the Rays.

Except in the bottom of the inning, Joe Nathan -- 39 for 41 in save chances -- walked Matt Joyce with two outs. Freddy Guzman pinch-ran. And that's a little story right there. Guzman had last appeared in the majors in 2009. He had spent the past two summers playing for Ciudad del Carmen of the Mexican League, where he had stolen 73 bases this year in 99 games. The Rays apparently signed him in late August and stashed him at their minor league complex. He was activated before Tuesday's game and there he was in 11th, suddenly a key player in a key game.

He stole second -- maybe he was out -- and David DeJesus singled up the middle off a hanging 2-2 slider from Nathan. Game tied, blown save, flash to Myers in the dugout saying "Thank god."

The Rangers failed to score in the 12th after getting the first two runners on and the Rays won it off Joe Ortiz, who had allowed runs in three of his five September appearances. This is the risk when you pull Jason Frasor after 13 pitches and Tanner Scheppers after 11 and Neal Cotts after 14. Eventually you run out of good relievers if the game goes deep and you end up using your seventh-best reliever in a big moment. Desmond Jennings, who had misplayed a fly ball into two runs earlier in the game, drove in the winning run.

* * * *

The Yankees need help to win the wild card. It looked like time to put the fork in them after they trailed 3-0 to Toronto through seven innings; a loss would leave them at 3.5 games behind the Rangers/Rays loser, but also behind the Orioles, Indians and Royals (who would beat the Indians). But they scored four runs in the eighth and turned it over to the invincible Mariano Rivera.

Which sounds good, except Mo hasn't been so invincible of late and two singles started the bottom of the ninth. Munenori Kawasaki pinch-hit. We could have done an entire blog on the bunt strategies on this night. The Jays were at their No. 6 spot in the order. Moises Sierra has actually hit well -- .307/.354/.547 -- but John Gibbons elected to go for the bunt and let two worse hitters take a crack at Rivera. Except the Yankees knew the bunt was coming and first baseman Lyle Overbay was so close to Kawasaki that the Kawasaki probably knew what cologne Overbay had on. Overbay fielded the bunt and threw the lead runner out at third. Rivera got a ground out and struck out J.P. Arencibia to end it.

I would have let Sierra hit. He was the best hitter of the next three, plus Rivera gets so many infield popups that he's not the easiest guy to get a sacrifice fly against. Basically, I'd rather bet on the next three guys going 1-for-3 then giving up an out and hoping the next two guys go for 1-for-2 or hit a sacrifice fly.

On this night, the Yankees climbed one game closer. Momentum is now on their side.

* * * *

In the National League, the Pirates lost a heartbreaker as the Padres scored twice in the ninth off Mark Melancon to win 3-2. Combined with the Cardinals' 4-3 win over the Rockies -- Edward Mujica struck out Todd Helton with the bases loaded to end it -- St. Louis now leads Pittsburgh by two games in the NL Central.

As Wil Myers might say to the Pirates: "Thank god."

As in: At least there's the wild card to fall back on.

Just more than two weeks ago, the Texas Rangers were in pretty good position, leading the A’s by 2.5 games in the American League West and coming off a 20-7 August that had them angling for the best record in the league, even with the Red Sox and Tigers in the lead as September began.

In other words, they were at least making preliminary plans on how to line up their postseason rotation. Matt Garza, acquired from the Cubs on July 22 for four players, would be a big part of that rotation, slotting in behind Yu Darvish and perhaps ahead of Derek Holland. He was one of the big fish at the trade deadline, the top-of-the-rotation starter teams desired to bulk up their rotation.

Well, Garza has proven to be one of the key deadline acquisitions -- only in a negative way. The Rangers are a disastrous 2-12 in September, collapsing down the stretch for the second straight season, and Garza has become the symbol of this horridness. He had another poor effort in Monday’s 6-2 loss to the Rays, getting knocked out in the fifth inning while allowing eight hits and six runs. Over his past nine starts, he has a 5.72 ERA and just one quality start. He has hardly been an improvement over the replacement-level pitchers the Rangers had been throwing out there.

Garza is not the only reason the Rangers have struggled. Their success in August was masked somewhat by their schedule -- they played only four games against winning teams in the month, beating up on the likes of the Astros, Mariners and White Sox. As the schedule got tougher, the Rangers’ weaknesses have been highlighted. As Gerry Fraley pointed out on Twitter, the Rangers haven’t led now in seven consecutive games, the first time that has happened since the franchise moved from Washington. That was 1972. The Rangers have a great bullpen, but they can’t get the lead.

Meanwhile, Alex Cobb delivered another solid outing for the Rays, with 10 strikeouts over eight innings, improving to 9-3 with a 3.02 ERA and giving the Rays temporary breathing room in the wild-card race (one game over Texas, 1.5 over Cleveland).

With that game in mind, speaking of playoff rotations, how do the contenders line up? Let's check some of the things managers are looking at.

Atlanta Braves
Mike Minor probably lines up as their No. 1, but it’s possible that Kris Medlen slots ahead of Julio Teheran even though Teheran has better numbers on the season, especially if the Braves lock up home field for the first round (they currently have the best record in the NL). Medlen has pitched well of late, but he also has a sizable home/road split (2.45 ERA at home, 4.27 on the road).

Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are the easiest one-two on the board, with Ricky Nolasco (terrific with the Dodgers other than his last start) and Hyun-Jin Ryu after that, perhaps depending on who finishes best over these final two weeks.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers who started on Monday in the NL are lined up to also start the wild-card game, which takes place on Tuesday after the season ends on Sept. 29, given four days between starts. For the Pirates, that suggests that if they don’t win the division, A.J. Burnett draws the assignment for that game. Here:

Monday, Sept. 16: Pitch
Tuesday, Sept. 17: Off
Wednesday, Sept. 18: Off
Thursday, Sept. 19: Off
Friday, Sept. 20: Off
Saturday, Sept. 21: Pitch
Sunday, Sept. 22: Off
Monday, Sept. 23: Off
Tuesday, Sept. 24: Off
Wednesday, Sept. 25: Off
Thursday, Sept. 26: Pitch
Friday, Sept. 27: Off
Saturday, Sept. 28: Off
Sunday, Sept. 29: Off
Monday, Sept. 30: Off
Tuesday, Oct. 1: Start wild-card game

Now, that’s assuming the NL Central division race goes down to the season’s final day and rotations aren't altered. However, the Pirates have another option: Francisco Liriano is scheduled to start this coming Friday, then again on Wednesday the 25th. So he could also pitch the wild-card game on five days’ rest if he doesn’t start the season finale on short rest (otherwise that would be Gerrit Cole’s game). If the Pirates end up facing the Reds, Liriano could get the start in an attempt to neutralize the Reds’ left-handed batters of Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

St. Louis Cardinals
Using the same math we did for the Pirates, the Cardinals would be lined up with Shelby Miller (Sunday’s starter) or Lance Lynn (Monday’s starter) in the wild-card game. Adam Wainwright starts Wednesday and Monday, putting him in line for a Saturday start in the final weekend and out of the wild-card game (he’d be pitching on two days’ rest). Again, all that is contingent on the division not being settled until the very end.

Cincinnati Reds
Perhaps the most interesting result from Monday was Johnny Cueto's making his first start for the Reds since June 28 and going five innings and 82 pitches against the Astros, allowing no runs. Yes, it was the Astros, and Reds fans on Twitter said Cueto was bailed out a couple of times but that his curveball looked great. If Cueto can get up to 100 pitches, Dusty Baker has to consider him for the rotation. Of course, the Reds have to get past the wild-card game first, and Baker has Mat Latos or Homer Bailey lined up full rest to start that game, as he’s going with six starters this week (with a day off on Thursday). He’s starting Greg Reynolds on Wednesday against Houston, lining up Latos and Bailey to pitch against the Pirates (and Liriano and Burnett) on Friday and Saturday. Good stuff.

Boston Red Sox
Jon Lester is presumably the No. 1 here, although Clay Buchholz has shown good results in two starts since coming off a three-month DL stint. Jake Peavy and John Lackey would fill out the 3-4 spots in some order.

Oakland A’s
Bartolo Colon has the better season numbers, but would Jarrod Parker draw the A's Game 1 start? He was Oakland’s Game 1 starter last year as a rookie, losing twice in the Division Series to Justin Verlander. He’d been on a roll until Monday’s start against the Angels, going 9-1 with a 2.60 ERA in 21 starts since struggling early in the season. Colon had a little blip in early August with back-to-back five-run starts, but has a 1.13 ERA over his past four starts. This could be a matchup thing: If the A’s play a team with a heavy dosage of left-handed hitters (like Boston), maybe Parker gets the start since his changeup is so effective against lefties. Against a right-handed team (Detroit), maybe Colon draws Game 1. After that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see rookie Sonny Gray get Game 3 over the homer-prone Dan Straily or A.J. Griffin.

Detroit Tigers
Two questions: (1) Anibal Sanchez or Justin Verlander as the No. 2 starter behind Max Scherzer (I’d go Sanchez, as he’s simply better than Verlander right now); (2) Has Rick Porcello jumped over Doug Fister as the Tigers' fourth guy? Porcello has pitched well his past two starts, but those came against the Mariners and the White Sox. Before that, the Red Sox pounded him for nine runs. But Fister has also been inconsistent, with two seven-run starts mixed in with a one-run and no-run effort in his past four outings.

I’m not going to go through all the wild-card contenders, but since the AL wild-card game is played on Wednesday, Oct. 2, here’s each team’s probable wild-card starter:

Tampa Bay: David Price. He’s scheduled to go on Friday and next Wednesday, giving him six days of rest before the wild-card game.

Texas: Martin Perez, Matt Garza or Alexi Ogando. Right now, Yu Darvish is scheduled to go Thursday/Tuesday/Sunday. If Darvish isn’t need on that final day, he gets the wild-card game.

Cleveland: Zach McAllister, Scott Kazmir or Corey Kluber. The Indians have an off day next week, so they could end up skipping Danny Salazar and starting Ubaldo Jimenez next Tuesday and then again on the final day of the season (if needed) or the wild-card game (if not needed the final day).

Baltimore: Miguel Gonzalez or Scott Feldman.

New York: With an off day, next week, the Yankees can skip Phil Hughes and go with Hiroki Kuroda (Tuesday), CC Sabathia (Wednesday), Ivan Nova (Thursday), Andy Pettitte (Friday), Hughes (Saturday), Kuroda (Sunday). So, it could be Sabathia, Nova or Pettitte in the wild-card game.

Kansas City: James Shields. The Royals have an off day on Thursday, so Shields is slated to pitch again on Sunday, then next Friday, which sets him up for the wild-card game on four days’ rest.

Whew. Got all that? And I'm sure I'll hear it from Nationals fans for not including them ...

Let's be honest: The American League wild-card "race" is more like two marathon runners stumbling to the finish line. As my colleague Jim Caple points out, over the past month the Rangers are 11-16, the Rays are 13-16, the Orioles are 14-15, the Yankees are 15-13, the Royals 16-14 and the Indians 16-12. The six wild-card contenders are a combined one game under .500 since Aug. 15. Not exactly gripping baseball going on here.

At-bat of the day: Justin Morneau hit the go-ahead single in the eighth inning of Pittsburgh's 3-2 win over the Cubs, but how about Josh Donaldson's first-inning, two-out homer to give the A's an early 2-0 lead over the Rangers. Oakland would go on to a 5-1 victory, completing the sweep and essentially wrapping up the division title. By the way, Baseball-Reference AL WAR leaders: Mike Trout 8.7, Donaldson 7.4, Robinson Cano 7.1, Chris Sale 6.9, Miguel Cabrera 6.8. FanGraphs: Trout 10.0, Cabrera 7.4, Donaldson 7.1. Sounds like Donaldson has some MVP arguments, at least based on WAR.

Pitching performance of the day: Clay Buchholz walked four in six innings but allowed just two hits and an unearned run in improving to 11-0 with a 1.51 ERA. Buchholz is at 95.1 innings. Pitchers since 1950 with a lower ERA, at least 100 innings: Bob Gibson, 1968 (1.12); Ted Abernathy, 1967 (1.27); Bruce Sutter, 1977 (1.34); Mel Rojas, 1992 (1.43); John Hiller, 1973 (1.44); Jesse Orosco, 1983 (1.47).


Most important win: The Indians waited out a long rain delay to beat the White Sox 7-1 and climb to a half-game behind the Rangers and Rays. Maybe it will be Cleveland's year: Matt Carson, who had appeared in nine games as a defensive replacement, made his first start and went 3-for-3 with a home run, two RBIs and a stolen base.

Most important loss: The Rays led 3-0 in the seventh when David Price tired and then 4-2 in the eighth when the Twins scored four runs -- all after two outs and nobody on. Ryan Doumit homered off Joel Peralta, Trevor Plouffe singled, Josh Willingham walked and then Josmil Pinto smacked a three-run homer, sending the Rays to a devastating defeat. The Rays' next 11 games: Rangers (4), Orioles (4), at Yankees (3).

Monday's best pitching matchup: Matt Garza versus Alex Cobb (Rangers at Rays, 7:10 ET). Good news here for the Indians, Orioles, Yankees and Royals: The two wild-card leaders will beat up on each other over the next four days, opening the door for games to be gained. Garza has a 5.16 ERA over his past eight starts -- with just one quality start. The "best" deadline trade acquisition has been a huge flop.

Player to watch: Johnny Cueto is making his first start since June 28. The Reds are 3.5 behind the Pirates and Cardinals, but are now just 4.5 ahead of the streaking Nationals, who have won eight of nine. It would still take a sizable collapse for the Reds to blow it, but stranger things have happened.

Your team is out of it, but you still love baseball. You intend keep checking box scores and watching the big games these final two weeks. You'll watch the playoffs, but you need a team to root for.

So, who to pick from the remaining teams in contention? I mean, you could just go with the team that's gone the longest without a World Series title -- that would either be the Indians (1948) or the Rangers (never). You could go with the biggest underdog -- probably the Pirates, who hadn't had a winning season since 1992. You could go with the smallest payroll -- that would be the Rays. Or maybe you just want Bud Selig to hand Alex Rodriguez that World Series MVP trophy.

But there are various factors you should consider in order to make the correct choice. I've weighted five different categories: misery (how much suffering have those franchise's fans gone through?), 2013 storyline (what made them interesting?), star factor (stars make October baseball more intriguing), payroll (high, medium or low payroll?) and fan support (do their own fans care?). The first three categories are judged on a five-point scale (five being highest) and payroll and fan support are judged on a three-point scale. Total maximum points is thus 21. Ties are broken by the team that's gone longest without winning a World Series.

14. New York Yankees: 12 points
Misery: 1
2013 storyline: 4
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

No, Yankees fans, suffering through Jayson Nix, Austin Romine and Brent Lillibridge doesn't count as misery. There's no denying this has been a compelling season in the Bronx, with all the injuries and a team of, in many cases, replacement-level players hanging in the race. Throw in the A-Rod saga and Mariano Rivera's final campaign, and the Yankees certainly would make October fascinating if they sneak in. Still, they're the Yankees, even with Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira injured and CC Sabathia pitching more like Andy Hawkins.

13. Atlanta Braves: 12 points
Misery: 3
2013 storyline: 2
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 2

It's been 18 years now since the Braves won their only World Series during their glorious run of 14 consecutive playoff appearances. It's also been 12 years since the Braves won a playoff series, the 2001 Division Series. While they lack that one big star, perhaps the most interesting aspect is their youth -- Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Craig Kimbrel are all 25 or younger. It's a young team that's going to be around a long time. But it's also a team that's doing exactly what everyone expected, minus the expected competition from the Nationals.

12. Tampa Bay Rays: 12 points
Misery: 3
2013 storyline: 2
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 3
Fan support: 1

Heres the deal: Maybe we're getting a little Rays fatigue. OK, we get it; small payroll, genius manager, genius front office, crummy stadium. But this is the sixth year since that shocking 2008 World Series appearance -- isn't it time the team actually does something in the postseason? Plus, this isn't really that compelling a team, and if they do make it, we have to watch postseason games played indoors. Then again, I'd rather have a World Series game indoors than in that 20-something wind chill last year in Detroit.

11. St. Louis Cardinals: 13 points
Misery: 1
2013 storyline: 3
Star factor: 4
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 3

The Cardinals will be back in the postseason for the fourth time in five seasons and 10th in 14 going back to 2000. It's not quite a dynasty on the level of the 1990s Braves or 1995-to-present Yankees (although Cardinals fans will be quick to point out they've won one more championship in this run than the Braves did). With all their recent success, they score well in star factor, although two of their best players are the underappreciated Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig (although Craig is out right now with a foot sprain). The Cardinals have had an interesting season, with the gutsy move of Carpenter to second base, a rotation now relying on two rookies and Edward Mujica taking over as closer. But they've won two titles recently, so it's hard to muster up much enthusiasm for them.

10. Cincinnati Reds: 13 points
Misery: 4
2013 storyline: 2
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 2

No team has had a season closer to what you would have expected from them on paper than the Reds. The rotation has been very good, even with Johnny Cueto missing a lot of time; Joey Votto has been an MVP candidate; Shin-Soo Choo gave the team the leadoff hitter it missed last year; Jay Bruce has hit home runs; and Dusty Baker struggled to find a No. 2 hitter. The team has been one of the healthiest in the majors, a few injuries in the bullpen notwithstanding. It's a fun team to watch with Votto, Choo, Bruce and Brandon Phillips; Mat Latos and Homer Bailey turning into a dynamic one-two punch in the rotation; Bronson Arroyo keepng hitters off-balance with his broad arsenal of stuff; Aroldis Chapman firing 100-mph fastballs in the ninth; and the anxiety (if you're a Reds fan) of wondering how Dusty will screw it up.

9. Boston Red Sox: 14 points
Misery: 2
2013 storyline: 5
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

Red Sox fans will argue that the past two seasons caused undue amounts of misery, but this is still a franchise with a lot of recent success. What's interesting about this team is its lack of star power once you get past Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz. In fact, Shane Victorino, the much-criticized free-agent signing, leads the team in WAR at 5.6 and closer Koji Uehara -- who took over the role only after injuries to Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey -- has had one of the best relief seasons in history, with a 1.06 ERA and an amazing .126 batting average allowed. And remember: Most people didn’t even pick the Red Sox to make the playoffs. It's not exactly an underdog team, but it is a team that has exceeded expectations.

8. Kansas City Royals: 14 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 3
Star factor: 2
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 2

Here’s a weird thing: With the Astros moving over to the American League, the AL has seven of the worst teams in attendance, with only the Marlins cracking the bottom eight from the NL. And while you can point to market size or team quality, consider that the Rockies, playing in a midsize market with a lousy team, are averaging over 34,000 fans per game -- more than 12,000 per game more than the A’s, Royals, Indians or Marlins. Of course we'd like to see the Royals make the playoffs, since they haven't done so since 1985, but is it really a team built to do any damage in October? Well, possibly. They don't score a lot of runs, but the rotation and bullpen are good enough to get on a roll.

7. Texas Rangers: 15 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 3
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

It's easy to root for the Rangers. After all, they've never won a World Series and were one strike away in 2011 before losing in excruciatingly painful fashion. They lost in the wild-card game last year and have had to battle through injuries to the pitching staff and the suspension of Nelson Cruz and loss of Josh Hamilton. On the other hand, a lot of the misery has been self-inflicted. Ron Washington mismanaged that 2011 World Series, they choked down the stretch last year and Cruz wasn't suspended for helping old ladies cross the street. On the other hand, Yu Darvish would be fun to watch in October, even if the Metroplex is more interested by then in the Cowboys' backup fullback.

6. Cleveland Indians: 15 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 5
Star factor: 2
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 1

Here come the Indians! They are now just a half-game out of the wild card (thank you, slumping Rays and Rangers). So, yes, there's been misery. Lots of it. I would say the Indians arguably deserve to top this list, except their own fans haven't even bothered to show up this year; only the Rays have averaged fewer per game. If the Indians do get into the wild-card game, Ubaldo Jimenez could be a tough foe to face considering his pitching of late (assuming he would be in line to start the game).

5. Oakland A's: 16 points
Misery: 4
2013 storyline: 4
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 3
Fan support: 2

As Matt Meyers wrote here on Friday, the amazing thing about the A's is they're doing this the exact same way as last year: without big stars, without a slew of high draft picks, without -- of course -- a large payroll or great fan support (they are not large in numbers, but they're passionate). Josh Donaldson leads the team in WAR at 7.3, but he's hardly a household name outside of the Bay Area. Bartolo Colon leads the pitching staff in WAR, which is really one of the most incredible stats of the season: A team that is going to win its division is led by a 40-year-old with the highest percentage of body fat in the majors. How can you not love this team?

4. Detroit Tigers: 16 points
Misery: 4
2013 storyline: 3
Star factor: 5
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer have garnished all the headlines this year, and deservedly so, although once again it hasn't been the easiest trek to a division title despite all that star power. The Tigers have an interesting misery rating, with World Series losses in 2006 and 2012, those awful teams of the early 2000s, and all the high expectations in recent seasons. Is this finally the year?

3. Baltimore Orioles: 16 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 4
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 2
Fan support: 2

It's been 30 years since the Orioles have made it to the World Series. From Jeffrey Maier to 14 consecutive losing seasons to last year's heartbreaking playoff loss to the Yankees, O's fans have certainly suffered. Unfortunately, they just can't get on that five- or six-game winning streak they need, and we're probably looking at a playoffs without Chris Davis and Manny Machado.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers: 17 points
Misery: 3
2013 storyline: 5
Star factor: 5
Payroll: 1
Fan support: 3

With Clayton Kershaw, Yasiel Puig, Zack Greinke, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez and maybe Matt Kemp -- not mention Magic Johnson in the owner's box -- there’s no denying the star power on this team. Their regular season has certainly been one of the more interesting in recent years, with a 30-42 record through June 21 nearly leading to manager Don Mattingly getting fired, followed by a 42-8 stretch that was the best in the majors since the 1942 Cardinals. After dropping to sixth in the NL in attendance in the final year of the McCourt regime, Dodger fans have returned in full force, leading the majors and up nearly 5,000 per game from last year. I will say this though: While they haven't won (or been to) a World Series since 1988, the misery suffered under Frank McCourt has been vastly overstated -- the Dodgers made the playoffs four times in eight years under him. A lot of franchises should enjoy such misery.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: 18 points
Misery: 5
2013 storyline: 5
Star factor: 3
Payroll: 3
Fan support: 2

No surprise. The Pirates are more than just an underdog; they're a team with many great backstories, as well as a team that is just flat-out fun to watch and easy to root for. Obviously, the Pirates rate high in the misery and 2013 storyline categories. They are lower in the star factor once you get past MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, but that doesn't make then uninteresting. A rotation led by A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano isn't lacking for backstories, rookie Gerrit Cole will refreshingly continue to pitch even though he could top 200 innings if the Pirates go deep into the postseason and the bullpen duo of Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli were basically obtained off the scrap heap. Kudos to GM Neal Huntington for acquiring Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau down the stretch to improve the team's depth.

Some quick thoughts on Thursday's results and a look forward to Friday.

At-bat of the night: Can a sacrifice bunt be the play of the night? It can when Jim Johnson chucks the throw into center field, setting up the winning run in the ninth inning of the Yankees' 6-5 win over the Orioles. Or maybe the key at-bat was Brendan Ryan leading off the inning with a base hit. Brendan Ryan and Chris Stewart. Your 2013 Yankees. Somehow it's working.

Pitching performance of the day: All-Star Jeff Locke has struggled of late -- well, struggled isn't quite right. In his past eight starts he'd gone 0-3 with a 6.57 ERA and opponents' batting line of .352/.443/.465. Sure enough, he pitched seven three-hit innings as the Pirates beat the Cubs 3-1. Most importantly, he walked just one, as his control has been awful of late. Whether this outing said more about Locke or the Cubs' offense, I'm not sure, but the Pirates moved into a first-place tie with the Cardinals after the Brewers beat St. Louis.

Most important win: We've been paying attention to the AL East battles this week, but the Indians got a big win in a big way -- 14-3 over the White Sox as Ryan Raburn knocked in five runs. Cleveland had lost their past two games to Kansas City, so this four-game set against the White Sox is a great chance to win three or four. They're 1.5 behind Tampa Bay but as we've pointed out before, they have the easiest schedule the rest of the way of all the wild-card contenders. If the AL East teams beat up on each other ...

Most important loss: The Orioles lost the final three games in their four-game series against the Yankees and now hit the road for a 10-=game road trip to Toronto, Boston and Tampa Bay. You feel their season slipping away.

Friday's best pitching matchup: Dan Straily versus Derek Holland (A's at Rangers, 8:05 ET). The free-falling Rangers are 3.5 behind the A's and anything short of taking two out of the three in this series probably spells the end of the division race. It's the final three games against each other in what has been a tight season series -- 9-7 in favor of the Rangers, with each team scoring 66 runs. Holland is coming off three straight shaky starts. Straily doesn't go deep into games so look for the bullpens to play a big part in this game.

Player to watch: Bruce Chen, Royals. He takes on Justin Verlander. Guess who has the better ERA? In 11 starts since moving into the rotation, Chen has a 2.98 ERA while holding opponents to a .205 average. He beat the Tigers on Sept. 8, allowing two runs in seven innings.

Well, you can't say this American League wild-card race is lacking in drama. Hey, the eventual payoff is small -- one game to keep your season going! -- but it sure is giving us a fun September.

A crazy Wednesday was followed by a crazy Thursday as AL East teams battled each other. Some thoughts on another night of playoff-like baseball.

• It's been an awful stretch of baseball for the Tampa Bay Rays. Go back two-plus weeks, to Aug. 24, after they had just defeated the New York Yankees for the second game in a row. They were 74-53, tied for first place with the Boston Red Sox and humming along as The Little Engine That Could and looking like a playoff lock, either as division champion or a wild card.
  
  Things can turn quickly in baseball, however. The Rays lost to the Yankees in 11 innings on Aug. 25. Jeremy Hellickson got pounded in a makeup game in Kansas City. Evan Longoria stopped hitting. They went 3-7 on a 10-game road trip -- the offense dying -- and went home and got shut out on Tuesday and lost on a grand slam in extra innings on Wednesday.
  
  So when they jumped out to a 3-1 lead over Jake Peavy in the series finale against Boston only to see the Red Sox rally to tie it, the sense of dread had to be sweating out of the pores of Rays fans, maybe even manager Joe Maddon. But Red Sox manager John Farrell gave him a little lifeline in the eighth inning. After taxing his bullpen in recent days, Farrell brought in little-used rookies Drake Britton and Rubby De La Rosa. Britton got the first out, but then Longoria hit a ground rule double to left center off De La Rosa. Longoria had swung through an 0-1 slider, and De La Rosa came back with the same pitch, but left it over the plate. After Matt Joyce popped out, Wil Myers doubled to right off an 0-1 fastball.
  
  The Red Sox got an infield single and walk off Fernando Rodney in the ninth, but Will Middlebrooks' screaming liner went right to Longoria and Dustin Pedroia popped out. The Rays kept their one-game margin over the Yankees for at least one more day.
• Longoria had been hitting .190 with just three extra-base hits in his past 16 games, but two of those were doubles on Wednesday. He also tripled on Thursday, so maybe he's getting back on track. Myers, meanwhile, had two homers and three RBIs against the Los Angeles Angels on Sept. 4, but that had been the only game in which he'd driven in a run in his past 18, so his RBI double was a much-needed lift.
• I thought Maddon tried to go one inning too far with Hellickson, who had scuffled through the first five innings but allowed just one run. Other than his previous start, when he tossed 5⅓ scoreless innings, Hellickson has been awful since late July. David Ortiz homered off him leading off the sixth and he walked Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who later scored when Stephen Drew doubled off Jamey Wright.
• The Yankees-Orioles game had an even more dramatic eighth and ninth inning. The Yankees led 5-2 in the bottom of the eighth. Alfonso Soriano made a leaping grab in left to rob Manny Machado of a home run and David Robertson fanned Chris Davis, but Adam Jones singled, Nick Markakis singled and Danny Valencia crushed a first-pitch cut fastball over the fence in left center to tie it up. After J.J. Hardy doubled, Robertson finally struck out Matt Wieters for the final out of the inning. For Robertson, it was his first back-to-back appearances since missing several days with shoulder tendinitis, and he didn't face too many batters on this night.
  
  The Yankees then rallied off Orioles closer Jim Johnson with help from one of baseball's worst sins: not taking an out when the other team gives it you. Brendan Ryan led off the ninth inning by lining a single to right, and Chris Stewart sacrificed, but Johnson fielded the bunt and shot-putted the ball into center with a ghastly throw. The winning run eventually scored on a wild pitch and then Mariano Rivera got the save, and the Yankees remained a game behind the Rays while the Orioles fell 2½ back (tied with the Royals).
• As for Johnson, I called him baseball's least valuable player this season on Twitter. The Orioles have blown nine games they led heading into the ninth inning this season, compared to the MLB average of three. This was a tie game entering the ninth, but Johnson is now 3-8. When your closer has eight losses, bad things have happened, and Buck Showalter's decision to stick with Johnson all season has proved costly.
• Last season, the Orioles set the major league record with a 29-9 record in one-run games. Were they good, or was there a degree of luck involved? As Joe Posnanski pointed out today: The Orioles are now 16-27 in one-run games in 2013, the worst record in the majors -- worse than the Astros or Marlins or anybody else. So they've gone from being THE BEST TEAM EVER in one-run games to the worst in the majors in one season. And you wonder why the Orioles are miserable right now.
• The Orioles gave Rivera a bronzed broken bat. Isn't all this Rivera love getting to be a bit much? I mean, it's kind of like, "Hey, Mariano, thanks for beating the crap out of us all these years!"
• I liked the way Joe Girardi managed his pitchers. He started the awful-of-late Phil Hughes but took him out after three innings and went to lefty David Huff. Of course, that decision looked good only because Hughes and Huff combined to allow only two runs in six innings.
• You do wonder, however, if the Yankees bullpen -- so good most of the season -- can hold on down the stretch. Robertson looked awful in the eighth and Rivera has been used heavily down the stretch and has five blown saves in his past 16 appearances.

Some quick thoughts on Wednesday's results and a look forward to Thursday.

At-bats of the night: Robinson Cano and Mike Carp hit home runs as the Yankees and Red Sox won late. I wrote about those two games here.


Pitching performance of the day: Jose Fernandez completed his brilliant rookie season by allowing one run in seven innings -- and also hitting a home run, which rubbed the Braves the wrong way when he admired it for few seconds (God forbid!) and led to a little bench-clearing exchange of phone numbers. Fernandez apologized for his actions, which included some looks into the Atlanta dugout after giving up a home run to Evan Gattis, saying, "I feel embarrassed. I feel like I don't deserve to be here, because this isn't high school. This is a professional game. I made a mistake. I'm going to learn from it." Love the mature response after the fact. Cut the kid some slack. He got caught up in the excitement of his final game.

Anyway, what were the playoff implications here? Well, the Braves are battling the Dodgers for home-field advantage in the NL, currently holding a 2-game lead. Considering Atlanta has an MLB-best 51-20 home record, it's not an insignificant race to look at.

Most important win: The Yankees beating the Orioles and climbing over the O's and Indians into second place in the second wild card standings. Yay for the second wild!

Most important loss: The Pirates sat Andrew McCutchen and didn't have Mark Melancon or Jason Grilli available, but they beat the Rangers 7-5 as Vin Mazzaro got out of a jam in the eighth and Kyle Farnsworth got the save. That completed a sweep over the Rangers, who received another poor effort from Matt Garza. Combined with the A's 18-3 thrashing of the Twins, the Rangers are now 3 games behind the A's and just 3.5 up on the Yankees.

Thursday's best pitching matchup: Jake Peavy versus Jeremy Hellickson (Red Sox at Rays, 7:10 ET). As one reader on Twitter commented to me, maybe the Rays have been eating too much fried chicken. They're 4-13 since Aug. 25, hitting .226 and averaging 2.6 runs per game over that span. After going 0-5 in a six-start stretch with a 9.00 ERA, Hellickson tossed 5.1 scoreless innings his last start.


Player to watch: Yoenis Cespedes, A's. Is he heating up at the right time? He's hitting .421/.450/.632 in September after hitting .216 in August. It could be a hot streak fueled by a .500 BABIP, since his strikeout-to-walk rate is still poor (8 to 1), but if he gets going after a disappointing year, the A's will be that much harder to catch. The A's have an afternoon game in Minnesota while the Rangers get the day off before the teams meet for a weekend showdown in Texas.

@dschoenfield has any team suffered more crushing defeats than my O's this year? It's been excruciating.

— Josh Powell (@JoshuaCPowell) September 12, 2013

Here are some of the position players to suit up for the Yankees in 2013: Vernon Wells, Chris Stewart, Jayson Nix, Eduardo Nunez, Austin Romine, David Adams, Zoilo Almonte, Luis Cruz, Ben Francisco, Reid Brignac, Chris Nelson, Brent Lillibridge, Alberto Gonzalez, Thomas Neal, Corban Joseph and Travis Ishikawa. (What you don't remember the two at-bats -- both strikeouts -- Ishikawa received?)

Those 16 players had combined for 1,988 plate appearances entering Wednesday's game in Baltimore, about the playing time of three full-time players. None have provided a positive offensive contribution, Nunez being the best, and he's hittng .257 with one home run. This group had combined to hit .223 with 24 home runs and 162 RBIs and on-base percentage well south of .300.

Those totals don't even include the 73 awful plate appearances Derek Jeter made or the 63 bad ones from Mark Teixeira or the 118 from Kevin Youkilis. You get the idea. This is a Yankees team that the rest of the American League should have kicked to the curb, elbowed in the stomach and then thrown into the gutter alongside the Astros and Mariners.

For much of the season, it's been a team with a $228 million payroll fielding a replacement-level lineup. Well ... replacement level plus Robinson Cano.

It's the ninth inning on Wednesday night. The Yankees had trailed 3-1 before Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez tied the game with home runs in the fifth and sixth. You can guess which guy received a loud chorus of boos as he rounded the bases.

Cano is leading off the inning. Tommy Hunter, who got the final out in the eighth, is pitching for Baltimore, the only reliever Buck Showalter has used all night. Cano eats up right-handers like Adam Richman facing a plate of pancakes. He has the sixth-best OPS against right-handers in the majors, nearly 200 points better than his mark against lefties. The game before Showalter had let Cano face righty Kevin Gausman in the eighth and Cano singled to tie a game the Yankees went on to win. Surely he wouldn't let Cano face a righty again in a key situation?

Left-handers were hitting .175 off Brian Matusz. Showalter didn't bring him -- and, no, it doesn't look like rest was an issue. Matusz had thrown 14 pitches on Tuesday, his first appearance in eight days. Troy Patton is another lefty in the pen although he hasn't been all that great against lefties this year, .275 with five home runs allowed. Still ... Tommy Hunter. Left-handed batters were slugging .527 off him before this night; he'd allowed nine home runs on the season, all to lefties. He crushes righties; he's not good versus lefties. Clear?

Cano saw two pitches. He fouled off a 95-mph fastball. Then he swatted an 88 mph changeup to center field. The Yankees would add another run when Adam Jones misplayed a catchable deep fly ball into a Granderson triple, a key run as it turned out when the Orioles scored once off Mariano Rivera in the ninth. Yankees 5, Orioles 4.

Orioles fans forced live through another ninth-inning meltdown. Yankees fans, somehow seeing their underdog team getting a game closer to the playoffs. Tommy Hunter versus Robinson Cano, a matchup that never should have happened.

* * * *

Occam's Razor: It's a Naked Gun 2 1/2 hostage scenario. RT @dschoenfield: Joe Maddon ... not so genius-like lately.

— Jason Epstein (@Southfive) September 12, 2013

We're in the top of the 10th inning in St. Petersburg. Rays manager Joe Maddon had already run through five relievers, including closer Fernando Rodney, who had thrown 15 pitches in the ninth. Closers don't pitch two innings these days -- even Maddon, the guy all the smart kids love, doesn't buck that trend -- so Joel Peralta started the 10th. Dustin Pedroia walked. Shane Victorino sacrificed him to second, bringing up David Ortiz. You can actually argue that John Farrell should have let Victorino hit away considering (A) Victorino has been hot; and (B) Maddon would likely intentionally walk Ortiz.

Which is what he did, a predictable move since he'd already used his two best lefties in the pen, Jake McGee and Alex Torres.

Like he did in the third inning, when he walked Ortiz to load the bases to face Mike Napoli (who singled in two runs), Maddon again elected to face Napoli. He replaced the fly-balling Peralta with the ground-balling Roberto Hernandez. The right move? Overthinking it? Hernandez versus righties: .254/.281/.377; Peralta versus righties: .206/.287/.299.

Napoli walked on four pitches. Oops.

Farrell sent southpaw-swinging Mike Carp up to hit for Jonny Gomes. Hernandez has a huge platoon split -- lefties were hitting .303 and slugging .529 off him. Maddon did have one left-hander left in the pen in Cesar Ramos but he was starting to run out of relievers by now, so he stuck with Hernandez, still hoping for a double play.

Rays pitching coach Kevin Hickey visited the mound. We can assume his advice was not "Throw a first-pitch hanging slider."

Carp crushed it to dead center for a grand slam. With expanded rosters and with the depth the Red Sox have coming off their bench, it's hard to win a matchup game with them right now. Maddon tried and got burned.

* * * *

Did Showalter and Maddon make mistakes? Hey, we all second-guess when the moves don't work. The key is to second-guess before it happens. I was definitely surprised Showalter didn't bring in Matusz to face Cano; it's just not a good matchup for Hunter. Maddon had started his matchup game back in the sixth inning -- he used Wesley Wright to get Jackie Bradley Jr. to get out of a jam and then McGee got Ortiz to ground into a double play in the seventh. That kept the game close, which the Rays eventually tied in the eighth, but limited Maddon's options later in the game. I think he got a little too cute there in the 10th. He probably should have just let Peralta pitch to Ortiz. Any intentional walk helps increase the chances of a big inning. That's what happened.

This is what makes September baseball so much fun. Every move gets scrutinized. Every bad pitch that turns into a bad result gets amplified. We debate, discuss, watch the out-of-town scoreboard with intense scrutiny and suffer through the pain or revel in the joy when Robinson Cano and Mike Carp turn into heroes.

AL Wild-Card Standings

Texas	     81	 64    --

Tampa Bay    78  66    --

New York     78  68     1

Cleveland    77  68   1.5

Baltimore    77  68   1.5

Kansas City  77  69     2

Thursday night: Yankees at Orioles, Red Sox at Rays. Let's do it again. The five-way tie is still very much in play!

Some quick thoughts on Tuesday's results and a look forward to Wednesday.

Blown opportunity No. 1: The Orioles led the Yankees 4-1 after Chris Davis belted a big two-run homer in the fifth off Ivan Nova, but Alfonso Soriano and Mark Reynolds homered off Miguel Gonzalez in the sixth. Then it got interesting. Kevin Gausman had a one-two-three seventh inning, striking out Lyle Overbay and Brett Gardner, so Buck Showalter brought the rookie back out for the eighth. It's an inning Showalter might manage differently in an alternate universe. Alex Rodriguez doubled to lead off the inning, but Showalter left Gausman in to face Robinson Cano instead of bringing in lefty Brian Matusz. Cano singled to tie the game, and then Soriano homered again. No Matusz, no Tommy Hunter, no Francisco Rodriguez (until the lead had been surrendered). Hunter had pitched the day before but not two days prior. Matusz ended up pitching in the ninth anyway. Showalter put faith in his rookie, but Matusz versus Cano seemed like the obvious matchup there, with Hunter or Rodriguez facing Soriano.

Blown opportunity No. 2: Like the Orioles, the Indians had a chance to pick up a game on the Rays with Tampa Bay losing to Boston. They had 12 hits but grounded into three double plays, and the Royals won 6-3. Carlos Pena did not pinch-hit.

Blown opportunity No. 3: The A's led the Twins 3-2 in the eighth with a chance to pick up a game on the second-place Rangers, who would lose to the Pirates. The A's had lost just four games all season when they led heading into the eighth, but Sean Doolittle gave up a single and Ryan Cook entered to face Josh Willingham, who promptly deposited the baseball on the wrong side of the fence (for Oakland) -- the first homer Cook had allowed to a right-handed batter this season.

Pitching performance of the day: David Price allowed three hits in eight innings for the Rays. Unfortunately, two came in the same inning, as Boston scored twice in the fifth and Clay Buchholz and three relievers combined on a four-hit shutout.

At-bat of the night: Milwaukee's Wily Peralta had a no-hitter going in a 0-0 tie in the sixth inning against St. Louis. With two outs and Matt Carpenter on after a walk, Peralta fired a first-pitch, 95 mph fast one and Matt Holliday crushed it 426 feet to center field. The Cardinals went on to a 4-2 win.

Most important win: The Yankees climbed back to just two games behind the Rays.

Most important loss: Tough one for the Orioles, but at least Tampa Bay also lost. With St. Louis and Pittsburgh both winning, the Reds dropped three games behind the Cards and two behind the Pirates after losing to the Cubs (and Tony Cingrani left in the second inning with a back injury).

Wednesday's best pitching matchup: A.J. Burnett versus Matt Garza (Pirates at Rangers, 2:05 p.m. ET). The Rangers are now 3-8 over their past 11 games, averaging fewer than three runs per game in that stretch. Garza likely needs a big effort as the Pirates go for the sweep. He's allowed four-plus runs in six of his past seven starts, not exactly what the Rangers expected when they traded for him.

Players to watch: Pedro Alvarez, Pirates, and Curtis Granderson, Yankees. Two similar lefty hitters -- home runs when they connect, but connecting can be a problem. Over the past two weeks, Alvarez is hitting .143/.217/.238 and Granderson is hitting .135/.200/.243.

Some quick thoughts on Monday's results and a look forward to Tuesday.

Inning of the day: I wrote about Ned Yost's tactical errors in the ninth inning of the Royals' 4-3 loss to the Indians. According to coolstandings.com, the Royals' playoff odds are down to 5.2 percent. By the way ... the Indians are only four back of the Tigers in the loss column. They have no games remaining with the Tigers so that hurts their chances, but the AL Central isn't over quite yet.

Argument of the day: Buck Showalter and Joe Girardi had a nice little war of words, Girardi apparently upset that Orioles' third-base coach Bobby Dickerson was trying to steal signs from Yankees catcher Austin Romine. That little flare-up overshadowed the more important news of the night: The Orioles beat the Yankees 4-2 behind a strong effort from Chris Tillman, who improved to 16-5 with a 3.66 ERA. The one flaw on Tillman's season ledger is 29 home runs, but some of that is a Camden Yards effect -- he's allowed 22 home runs at home, just seven on the road, where his ERA is a run lower. If the Orioles get into the wild-card game and can line up their starter, you have to think it would be Tillman.

Pitching performance of the day: Gerrit Cole outdueled Yu Darvish 1-0, clinching a winning season for the Pirates and handing Darvish his third 1-0 loss of the season, the most since Orel Hershiser lost four such games in 1989. ESPN Stats & Info breaks down Cole's superb outing, the best of his rookie season.

Most important win: While the Pirates' win was big from a psychological standpoint after getting swept by the Cardinals over the weekend, the Indians and Orioles picked up an important half-game on the Rays.

Most important loss: The Royals. They're now 4 back of the Rays and 2.5 back of the Orioles and Indians. If 90 wins is the line to get into the playoffs, they have to go 15-3 the rest of the way.

Awards watch: Max Scherzer had his worst start of the season in a 5-1 loss to the White Sox and Chris Sale, pushing his ERA to 3.01, seventh-best in the AL. Scherzer is still the Cy Young favorite with his 19-3 record and league-leading WHIP and high strikeout total, although Sale now has a healthy lead in WAR (but an 11-12 record), 7.1 to 5.5.

Tuesday's best pitching matchup: Clay Buchholz versus David Price, Red Sox at Rays (7:10 ET). After missing three months, Buchholz returns to the Red Sox rotation. He was 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA before going down, but looked shaky in a couple rehab starts. Price is coming off six-run and four-run outings on Tampa's recent road trip.

Player to watch: Francisco Liriano, Pirates. An interesting matchup here as well against Martin Perez. The Rangers are scuffling, having lost seven of 10. Liriano has run hot and cold of late, with four scoreless starts in his last nine, but a 10-run game and four-inning and three-inning outings mixed in.