SweetSpot: Toronto Blue Jays
Clearing the Bases: Playoff format stinks
May, 18, 2012
May 18
8:00
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
First base: Home-field disadvantage. Owners added the one-game wild-card game in part to reward teams that won a division title. However, they've just taken away some of that advantage by changing the layout of the Division Series from 2-2-1 to 2-3. Instead of starting at home, the higher seed will play the first two games on the road before heading. Look, it's not huge deal and might revert back to 2-2-1 next year, when the regular season begins earlier, thus providing more potential off days in October. Still, I don't see why 2-2-1 would have been an issue, even with the need to have fewer off days this season. But why do we need so many off days anyway? Obviously, teams play in different cities on back-to-back days all the time.
Also buried in that story is something that will get fans much more upset: Two Division Series games will shift from TBS to MLB Network, which is available in about 30 million fewer homes.
Second base: Reddick-hot. Josh Reddick plays for the Oakland A's, so he's not exactly going to be leading the SportsCenter highlights. But he's quietly putting together a nice season, hitting .283 with 10 home runs. His big home run off Alexi Ogando tied the game in the seventh inning Thursday and the A's then beat the Rangers in the 10th. The A's are a game over .500 at 20-19 and another key to their surprising success has been reliever Ryan Cook, who threw two hitless innings to get the win. Cook has yet to allow run and has allowed just four hits in 19.2 innings.
Third base: Feel-good stories. A couple of nice stories to highlight. The Blue Jays sent down former 35-homer man Adam Lind and called up Yan Gomes, who became the first Brazilian-born player to reach the majors. Gomes went 2-for-3 in Toronto's win over the Yankees. Gomes is a catcher/third baseman and not a top prospect, although he was hitting .359 for Las Vegas (of course, everyone hits .359 at Las Vegas). Gomes moved to the U.S. with his family when he was 12 and was drafted out of Barry University in Florida.
Rich Thompson is a 33-year-old outfielder who had one at-bat with the Royals back in 2004. He's been in the minor leagues ever since, including the past five seasons with Lehigh Valley, the Phillies' Triple-A club, where he became a fan favorite. Earlier this week, the Phillies traded him to the Rays, who called up him to the big leagues. On Thursday, he started in left field and picked up his first major league hit and RBI. Dreams do come true.
Home plate: Tweet of the day. Ahh, good ol' Jim Tracy.
Also buried in that story is something that will get fans much more upset: Two Division Series games will shift from TBS to MLB Network, which is available in about 30 million fewer homes.
Second base: Reddick-hot. Josh Reddick plays for the Oakland A's, so he's not exactly going to be leading the SportsCenter highlights. But he's quietly putting together a nice season, hitting .283 with 10 home runs. His big home run off Alexi Ogando tied the game in the seventh inning Thursday and the A's then beat the Rangers in the 10th. The A's are a game over .500 at 20-19 and another key to their surprising success has been reliever Ryan Cook, who threw two hitless innings to get the win. Cook has yet to allow run and has allowed just four hits in 19.2 innings.
Third base: Feel-good stories. A couple of nice stories to highlight. The Blue Jays sent down former 35-homer man Adam Lind and called up Yan Gomes, who became the first Brazilian-born player to reach the majors. Gomes went 2-for-3 in Toronto's win over the Yankees. Gomes is a catcher/third baseman and not a top prospect, although he was hitting .359 for Las Vegas (of course, everyone hits .359 at Las Vegas). Gomes moved to the U.S. with his family when he was 12 and was drafted out of Barry University in Florida.
Rich Thompson is a 33-year-old outfielder who had one at-bat with the Royals back in 2004. He's been in the minor leagues ever since, including the past five seasons with Lehigh Valley, the Phillies' Triple-A club, where he became a fan favorite. Earlier this week, the Phillies traded him to the Rays, who called up him to the big leagues. On Thursday, he started in left field and picked up his first major league hit and RBI. Dreams do come true.
Home plate: Tweet of the day. Ahh, good ol' Jim Tracy.
As a #SFGiants fan, I'd like to see Jim Tracy stick around as #Rockies manager. As a sane person, I don't see how he does.
— Wendy Thurm (@hangingsliders) May 18, 2012
Podcast: Lawrie, Montero, hitting coaches
May, 17, 2012
May 17
2:42
PM ET
By
Eric Karabell | ESPN.com
Both young and old players were on our minds as Keith Law and I gathered for Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast!
1. Brett Lawrie gets four games for his outburst and helmet throw, but is it enough? And what should happen to the umpire? Plus, are the Blue Jays collecting young players with reputations like Lawrie?
2. From young to old, Jamie Moyer continues to set marks each time he pitches, but isn’t that getting, ahem, a bit old? Plus, is WAR more valuable than wins?
3. The Angels switch hitting coaches, and of course Albert Pujols and Vernon Wells hit home runs. Do hitting coaches have much effect?
4. Seattle Mariners catcher Jesus Montero isn’t Gold Glove-caliber behind the plate, but what does KLaw think of his overall future, both offensively and defensively?
5. Thursday features a full slate of games, including the major league ERA leader on the mound, but will he continue his surprising success?
So download and listen to Thursday’s fun Baseball Today podcast and get ready for Friday’s show!
1. Brett Lawrie gets four games for his outburst and helmet throw, but is it enough? And what should happen to the umpire? Plus, are the Blue Jays collecting young players with reputations like Lawrie?
2. From young to old, Jamie Moyer continues to set marks each time he pitches, but isn’t that getting, ahem, a bit old? Plus, is WAR more valuable than wins?
3. The Angels switch hitting coaches, and of course Albert Pujols and Vernon Wells hit home runs. Do hitting coaches have much effect?
4. Seattle Mariners catcher Jesus Montero isn’t Gold Glove-caliber behind the plate, but what does KLaw think of his overall future, both offensively and defensively?
5. Thursday features a full slate of games, including the major league ERA leader on the mound, but will he continue his surprising success?
So download and listen to Thursday’s fun Baseball Today podcast and get ready for Friday’s show!
Tuesday night was an angry one for quite a few players, managers and umpires, but Mark Simon and I were in good moods to chronicle it all for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast!
1. Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg had a miserable outing Tuesday, and then when his manager told the world what might have contributed, it got worse.
2. Toronto Blue Jays slugger Brett Lawrie lost his cool in the ninth inning Tuesday, and look for the Blue Jays to be without his services for a while. Mark says Lawrie needs help.
3. The Angels found a fall guy for the struggles of Albert Pujols, but is manager Mike Scioscia safe?
4. The Mets are in the news for David Wright being pulled from a game, and also a topic for an emailer, as well as Atlanta’s offense and success for certain days of the week.
5. Wednesday’s schedule features the ESPN matchup of Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson, a pair of right-handers that the metrics do not favor.
So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, because we’re never removed early for the fear of retaliation.
1. Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg had a miserable outing Tuesday, and then when his manager told the world what might have contributed, it got worse.
2. Toronto Blue Jays slugger Brett Lawrie lost his cool in the ninth inning Tuesday, and look for the Blue Jays to be without his services for a while. Mark says Lawrie needs help.
3. The Angels found a fall guy for the struggles of Albert Pujols, but is manager Mike Scioscia safe?
4. The Mets are in the news for David Wright being pulled from a game, and also a topic for an emailer, as well as Atlanta’s offense and success for certain days of the week.
5. Wednesday’s schedule features the ESPN matchup of Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson, a pair of right-handers that the metrics do not favor.
So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, because we’re never removed early for the fear of retaliation.
Blue Jays need Jose Bautista to break out
May, 15, 2012
May 15
6:28
PM ET
By Rebecca Glass, Bexy and Jordan Smedresman, You Can't Predict Baseball | Special to ESPN.com
When we started You Can’t Predict Baseball back in 2010, Jose Bautista emerged as our poster child. Bautista had been in the majors since 2004, played for four different franchises that year alone, and had never hit more than 16 homers in a season. In 2010, he clubbed 54 home runs, smashing his old career-high slugging percentage by nearly 200 points. Such a sudden power surge provoked much interest, and those who argued it was simply a fluke were proven wrong when Bautista put up an even better encore in 2011, increasing his batting average by 42 points and OPS by 61 points.
Claus Andersen/Getty ImagesToronto is still above .500 despite slugger Jose Bautista's sluggish start.This season, however, has been a different story. While we’ve been distracted by the home run antics of Matt Kemp and Josh Hamilton, that thing in Miami’s center field, and the curious case of Albert Pujols, Bautista has gone mostly unnoticed ... which, for him, is a good thing. It’s still early, of course, but the numbers are not pretty: his .194 batting average and .403 slugging percentage entering Tuesday's game are near 200-point declines from last season’s totals (.302 and .608, respectively). If you’re more inclined toward sabermetrics, it’s a decline from a virtually Bondsian .441 wOBA to a workmanlike .321: above average, but on par with names like Dexter Fowler and Angel Pagan.
On the other hand, Bautista’s .167 BABIP is extremely low -- at next-to-last in MLB (behind only Eric Hosmer's .165 mark), it’s almost impossible that it won’t improve at some point. Of his eight home runs, five have been hit in May, which could mean that Bautista just got off to a slow start. However, even in 2010 his BABIP was just .233, and given his career .272 mark, the .309 he posted last year is the one that sticks out. More ominously, however, Bautista slowed down considerably in the second half last year, posting a .255/.417/.476 line after the All-Star break. That’s not terrible, especially not the OBP, but it’s human, especially compared to his .334/.468/.702 line in the first half. The only real difference between his second-half line and what he has posted in 2012 thus far is 100 points of BABIP.
The Blue Jays usually do not attract a great deal of attention, and Bautista did not recently sign a massive 10-year free-agent deal, so his slow start isn’t receiving the attention of Pujols' prolonged slump. After all, Edwin Encarnacion and Kelly Johnson are the only Jays currently posting a triple-digit OPS+ (ie, currently the only hitters producing above average), and the team is still over .500. If the Blue Jays are going to contend for the playoffs, they need Bautista to be the hitter he was over the past two years.
The middle of May is too early to call this a bad season, and as we noted, his recent splurge of home runs may be indicative of him turning things around -- though we do, however, have to stipulate that three of those home runs came against the Twins, who have terrible pitching, and at Target Field, where Bautista has 10 homers in just 52 plate appearances. Still, considering last year’s second-half slide, the picture is murky. It’s right to put optimism in Bautista’s retooled swing, which led to 10 home runs in September 2009 before his 2010 breakout. But right now, Bautista’s production is not what Jays fans have grown used to.
You can follow You Can’t Predict Baseball on Twitter at @cantpredictball.
http://www.youcantpredictbaseball.com/
Claus Andersen/Getty ImagesToronto is still above .500 despite slugger Jose Bautista's sluggish start.On the other hand, Bautista’s .167 BABIP is extremely low -- at next-to-last in MLB (behind only Eric Hosmer's .165 mark), it’s almost impossible that it won’t improve at some point. Of his eight home runs, five have been hit in May, which could mean that Bautista just got off to a slow start. However, even in 2010 his BABIP was just .233, and given his career .272 mark, the .309 he posted last year is the one that sticks out. More ominously, however, Bautista slowed down considerably in the second half last year, posting a .255/.417/.476 line after the All-Star break. That’s not terrible, especially not the OBP, but it’s human, especially compared to his .334/.468/.702 line in the first half. The only real difference between his second-half line and what he has posted in 2012 thus far is 100 points of BABIP.
The Blue Jays usually do not attract a great deal of attention, and Bautista did not recently sign a massive 10-year free-agent deal, so his slow start isn’t receiving the attention of Pujols' prolonged slump. After all, Edwin Encarnacion and Kelly Johnson are the only Jays currently posting a triple-digit OPS+ (ie, currently the only hitters producing above average), and the team is still over .500. If the Blue Jays are going to contend for the playoffs, they need Bautista to be the hitter he was over the past two years.
The middle of May is too early to call this a bad season, and as we noted, his recent splurge of home runs may be indicative of him turning things around -- though we do, however, have to stipulate that three of those home runs came against the Twins, who have terrible pitching, and at Target Field, where Bautista has 10 homers in just 52 plate appearances. Still, considering last year’s second-half slide, the picture is murky. It’s right to put optimism in Bautista’s retooled swing, which led to 10 home runs in September 2009 before his 2010 breakout. But right now, Bautista’s production is not what Jays fans have grown used to.
You can follow You Can’t Predict Baseball on Twitter at @cantpredictball.
http://www.youcantpredictbaseball.com/
We ended a fine week of Baseball Today podcasts with Mark Simon and I talking about what happened the night before and previewing the weekend, and there was lots in between.
1. Josh Beckett didn’t make a lot of friends -- with his performance Thursday night or his comments afterward -- but what is his future with the Red Sox?
2. Staying in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays added a designated hitter to the fold, but can Vladimir Guerrero really make a difference? We might surprise you.
3. Our Simon Says segment discusses the viability of Bryan LaHair, and focuses on the defensive leaderboard.
4. Emailers want to know about pitching the eighth inning versus the ninth, the most common game scores, and Eduardo Nunez’s ability to play defense.
5. It’s a big weekend for the Angels as they face the Rangers, but we’ve also got our collective eyes on the big AL East battle for first place, and why number 8,000 is significant for an NL East team.
So download and listen to Friday’s Baseball Today podcast, and please have a great weekend!
1. Josh Beckett didn’t make a lot of friends -- with his performance Thursday night or his comments afterward -- but what is his future with the Red Sox?
2. Staying in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays added a designated hitter to the fold, but can Vladimir Guerrero really make a difference? We might surprise you.
3. Our Simon Says segment discusses the viability of Bryan LaHair, and focuses on the defensive leaderboard.
4. Emailers want to know about pitching the eighth inning versus the ninth, the most common game scores, and Eduardo Nunez’s ability to play defense.
5. It’s a big weekend for the Angels as they face the Rangers, but we’ve also got our collective eyes on the big AL East battle for first place, and why number 8,000 is significant for an NL East team.
So download and listen to Friday’s Baseball Today podcast, and please have a great weekend!
Blue Jays sign Guerrero; end of Lind?
May, 10, 2012
May 10
5:45
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Is it possible Vladimir Guerrero has enough left in his creaky knees to help the Toronto Blue Jays? Hey, it doesn't hurt to find out, so the Jays signed him to a minor league contract.
Vlad hit .290/.317/.416 last season for Baltimore, hardly inspiring numbers for a designated hitter, especially when you factor in the 23 double plays he grounded into.
The most realistic expectation is that Guerrero could provide a platoon bat at DH and a pinch-hitter off the bench. While his splits were pretty even in 2011, he did hit .338/.395/.536 against left-handers in 2010 when he was with Texas.
So far, however, the Jays have actually hit better against lefties than righties:
Blue Jays versus RHP: .232/.305/.387
Blue Jays versus LHP: .248/.330/.432
That doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement, most obviously by benching Adam Lind permanently against lefties. Lind is a career .217/.263/.345 hitter against left-handers. Basically, he should never start against a southpaw. If Guerrero shows he has something left, Edwin Encarnacion could move to first base with Guerrero moving into the DH slot. In fact, the Jays should think about permanently replacing Lind against all pitchers. He looked like a future star after his monster .932 OPS season in 2009, but he now has a .290 on-base percentage since and is off to .198/.283/.347 start. While he has popped 49 home runs the past two seasons (and three in 2012), you need more production from your first baseman.
If Guerrero is eventually added to the Blue Jays roster, the odd man out would probably be outfielder Ben Francisco. He and Rajai Davis both hit right-handed but Davis provides more speed and better defense. It seems unlikely the club would punt on Lind, who is making $5 million this year and $5 million next (with club options through 2016).
Vlad hit .290/.317/.416 last season for Baltimore, hardly inspiring numbers for a designated hitter, especially when you factor in the 23 double plays he grounded into.
The most realistic expectation is that Guerrero could provide a platoon bat at DH and a pinch-hitter off the bench. While his splits were pretty even in 2011, he did hit .338/.395/.536 against left-handers in 2010 when he was with Texas.
So far, however, the Jays have actually hit better against lefties than righties:
Blue Jays versus RHP: .232/.305/.387
Blue Jays versus LHP: .248/.330/.432
That doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement, most obviously by benching Adam Lind permanently against lefties. Lind is a career .217/.263/.345 hitter against left-handers. Basically, he should never start against a southpaw. If Guerrero shows he has something left, Edwin Encarnacion could move to first base with Guerrero moving into the DH slot. In fact, the Jays should think about permanently replacing Lind against all pitchers. He looked like a future star after his monster .932 OPS season in 2009, but he now has a .290 on-base percentage since and is off to .198/.283/.347 start. While he has popped 49 home runs the past two seasons (and three in 2012), you need more production from your first baseman.
If Guerrero is eventually added to the Blue Jays roster, the odd man out would probably be outfielder Ben Francisco. He and Rajai Davis both hit right-handed but Davis provides more speed and better defense. It seems unlikely the club would punt on Lind, who is making $5 million this year and $5 million next (with club options through 2016).
Vote: Best single game performance ever
May, 1, 2012
May 1
4:40
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Time for a quick poll. Ryan Braun went 4-for-5 with three home runs, a triple and six RBIs (the first player with three homers and triple since Fred Lynn in 1975) on Monday night, giving him 15 total bases. Certainly a great day, one of the best in major league history, especially if you factor in that it came at spacious Petco Park. But according to Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index, since 1918 17 players have had at least 16 total bases.
So today's question: Which hitter had the greatest day in major league history? We can only list five in the poll, so I've narrowed the field down to five finalists. (Note: Postseason performances not included since they're a different beast.)
1. Carlos Delgado, 2003 Blue Jays: 4-for-4, 4 HR, 4 R, 6 RBIs (box score)
Several players have hit four home runs in a game, but Delgado is the only one to do it in four plate appearances. Isn't that perfection? He hit a three-run homer in the first and three solo shots, all leading off an inning.
2. Shawn Green, 2002 Dodgers: 6-for-6, 4 HR, 2B, 6 R, 7 RBIs (box score)
Green set the major league record with 19 total bases in a game the Dodgers hit eight home runs. He's also just one of eight players since 1918 to score six runs in a game. Green's homers came off Brian Mallette (two), Glendon Rusch and Jose Cabrera. I had to look up Mallette. He pitched in five games in his career and this ended up being his final major league appearance.
3. Mark Whiten, 1993 Cardinals: 4-for-5, 4 HR, 4 R, 12 RBIs (box score)
In the second game of a doubleheader, Hard-Hittin' Whiten tied major league records with his four homers and 12 RBIs. He hit a grand slam, two three-run homers and a two-run shot, fouling out with the bases empty in the fourth.
4. Fred Lynn, 1975 Red Sox: 5-for-6, 3 HR, 3B, 4 R, 10 RBIs (box score)
Lynn hit a two-run homer and three-run homer in the first two innings off Joe Coleman, a two-run triple in the third and a three-run homer in the ninth. In between, he lined out and singled.
5. Jim Bottomley, 1924 Cardinals: 6-for-6, 2 HR, 2B, 3 R, 12 RBIs (box score)
Batting cleanup for the Cardinals against the Brooklyn Robins, Bottomley hit a two-run single, an RBI double, a grand slam, a two-run homer, a two-run single and an RBI single. Not a bad day's work.
My vote goes to Green: The total bases record and six runs scored. Jose Reyes scored six all month for the Marlins.
So today's question: Which hitter had the greatest day in major league history? We can only list five in the poll, so I've narrowed the field down to five finalists. (Note: Postseason performances not included since they're a different beast.)
1. Carlos Delgado, 2003 Blue Jays: 4-for-4, 4 HR, 4 R, 6 RBIs (box score)
Several players have hit four home runs in a game, but Delgado is the only one to do it in four plate appearances. Isn't that perfection? He hit a three-run homer in the first and three solo shots, all leading off an inning.
2. Shawn Green, 2002 Dodgers: 6-for-6, 4 HR, 2B, 6 R, 7 RBIs (box score)
Green set the major league record with 19 total bases in a game the Dodgers hit eight home runs. He's also just one of eight players since 1918 to score six runs in a game. Green's homers came off Brian Mallette (two), Glendon Rusch and Jose Cabrera. I had to look up Mallette. He pitched in five games in his career and this ended up being his final major league appearance.
3. Mark Whiten, 1993 Cardinals: 4-for-5, 4 HR, 4 R, 12 RBIs (box score)
In the second game of a doubleheader, Hard-Hittin' Whiten tied major league records with his four homers and 12 RBIs. He hit a grand slam, two three-run homers and a two-run shot, fouling out with the bases empty in the fourth.
4. Fred Lynn, 1975 Red Sox: 5-for-6, 3 HR, 3B, 4 R, 10 RBIs (box score)
Lynn hit a two-run homer and three-run homer in the first two innings off Joe Coleman, a two-run triple in the third and a three-run homer in the ninth. In between, he lined out and singled.
5. Jim Bottomley, 1924 Cardinals: 6-for-6, 2 HR, 2B, 3 R, 12 RBIs (box score)
Batting cleanup for the Cardinals against the Brooklyn Robins, Bottomley hit a two-run single, an RBI double, a grand slam, a two-run homer, a two-run single and an RBI single. Not a bad day's work.
My vote goes to Green: The total bases record and six runs scored. Jose Reyes scored six all month for the Marlins.
Chat wrap: Pujols' final numbers will be ...
May, 1, 2012
May 1
1:54
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
It was another eventful chat session as we discussed Albert Pujols' homerless April and asked readers to project his final numbers. We discussed many things about the Minnesota Twins, gave a shout-out to the awesome Jose Altuve, tried to figure out what the Angels should do with Mark Trumbo, wondered who the first manager to be fired will be (yes, once we again Dusty Baker's name came up!), wondered how much bad defense has to do with the poor starts by Max Scherzer and Josh Johnson, wondered how much good defense is helping Jeremy Hellickson, debated the Nationals' attendance issues and pointed out that Pujols' slow start is stealing attention away from Jose Bautista's slow start. All that and more! Check out the transcript here.
There will be no hardcore analysis here. Just two simple statements: I think Colby Rasmus is a good baseball player; I think he's going to have a big year.
Forget what happened last year, in St. Louis and then after the trade when he hurt his wrist and hit just .173 for the Blue Jays. He's still just 25 years old, he had a nice season in 2010 when he was just 23 and after a slow start things are starting to click.
Through the season's first seven games Rasmus was hitting .125 and I had somebody ask in one of my chats if Rasmus was done. One week and people were writing him off. Since then he's hit .316 with two doubles and two home runs, raising his season line to .242/.294/.452.
I like the way John Farrell is handling him, batting him eighth or ninth to start the season, keeping unnecessary pressure off him. He did move him up to fifth a couple days ago for one game, before sliding him back down the past two nights.
Rasmus is just one reason for Jays fans to be optimistic. Jose Bautista is hitting just .200, you get the feeling Brett Lawrie is ready for a tear, maybe Adam Lind will start hitting. So they're waiting for the half their lineup to heat up -- and they're still 10-7.
Could be good things happening in Toronto.
Forget what happened last year, in St. Louis and then after the trade when he hurt his wrist and hit just .173 for the Blue Jays. He's still just 25 years old, he had a nice season in 2010 when he was just 23 and after a slow start things are starting to click.
Through the season's first seven games Rasmus was hitting .125 and I had somebody ask in one of my chats if Rasmus was done. One week and people were writing him off. Since then he's hit .316 with two doubles and two home runs, raising his season line to .242/.294/.452.
I like the way John Farrell is handling him, batting him eighth or ninth to start the season, keeping unnecessary pressure off him. He did move him up to fifth a couple days ago for one game, before sliding him back down the past two nights.
Rasmus is just one reason for Jays fans to be optimistic. Jose Bautista is hitting just .200, you get the feeling Brett Lawrie is ready for a tear, maybe Adam Lind will start hitting. So they're waiting for the half their lineup to heat up -- and they're still 10-7.
Could be good things happening in Toronto.
It's early! Don't panic, don't overreact
April, 23, 2012
Apr 23
5:21
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Of course, it's much more fun to overanalyze everything that goes on in the first few weeks of a baseball season. Albert Pujols has lost it! CC Sabathia's velocity is down! Matt Kemp is going to have the greatest season of all time! The Red Sox are terrible!
OK, maybe the Red Sox are terrible.
In this vein, Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley has a piece on not overreacting to early season sample sizes. He uses John Mayberry Jr. of the Phillies as an illustration, but his point holds true for nearly all players off to a cold start (or, in reverse, a hot starts: It's a small number of plate appearances to get worked up over. Here is an excellent graphic that shows the 10 qualified players with the lowest OPS through April last season; as you can see, all performed much better the rest of the season.
So, it's early. No need to panic or overreact.
Right, Red Sox fans?
Other stuff to check out:
OK, maybe the Red Sox are terrible.
In this vein, Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley has a piece on not overreacting to early season sample sizes. He uses John Mayberry Jr. of the Phillies as an illustration, but his point holds true for nearly all players off to a cold start (or, in reverse, a hot starts: It's a small number of plate appearances to get worked up over. Here is an excellent graphic that shows the 10 qualified players with the lowest OPS through April last season; as you can see, all performed much better the rest of the season.
So, it's early. No need to panic or overreact.
Right, Red Sox fans?
Other stuff to check out:
- Philip Humber's perfect game is a reminder that the Mets still haven't thrown a no-hitter in their history. Since Humber is an ex-Met, DJ Gallo guesses which former Met will be next in line to toss a no-no.
- The Yankees scored seven runs in consecutive innings to rally from a 9-0 deficit on Saturday. Diane Firstman discovered that's been done before. She even found a fairly recent instance of a team scoring eight runs in consecutive innings.
- Speaking of that collapse, Chip Buck examines what went wrong. He also looks at the state of the bullpen and who the Red Sox could bring in or call up to help.
- It's Derek Jeter's New York City penthouse. Complete with books and telescope!
- The Kansas City Royals ... well, the title of this post says it all: "Surely something has gone right."
- The title of Joey Matschulat's post about the Rangers also says it all: "The (still) hottest team in the world."
- The Dodgers have Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier but could use more help on offense, especially in left field where Juan Rivera has gotten off to a slow start. Jon Weisman looks at prospects Alex Castellanos and Scott Van Slyke. Is either a possible fix for left field?
- Is it time to start drinking the Rockies Kool-Aid?
- Drew Hutchison debuted over the weekend for the Blue Jays and Callum Hughson files a report, saying Hutchison reminds him of former Twins starter Kevin Tapani.
- Is Kyle Lohse the real deal? He's allowed three runs through his first four starts.
Clearing the Bases: Lobs, Lawrie and losses
April, 23, 2012
Apr 23
8:00
AM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
First: You know first, it’s the base you’re supposed to go to initially, to get on base. Or to throw to when the opposition obligingly gives you an out on a sac bunt. It’s also sometimes a bit of a tricky target, as the Cubs’ Geovany Soto found out in the sixth inning against the Reds when, with Ryan Hanigan on first with nobody out and Cincinnati holding a 2-0 lead, pitcher Johnny Cueto stepped in. Automatic sac bunt, right? Sure, except Soto’s throw was wild, so now it’s two on, nobody out. So what does Dusty Baker order up from leadoff man Zack Cozart? A sac bunt … which Soto threw away to load the bases. For Soto’s sake, here’s hoping he doesn’t get an even worse case of the yips.
Second: Toronto’s Brett Lawrie stole home against the Royals, his first-ever steal of home, on his second recorded attempt. But he’s also tried to steal second just two times this season, and he’s be no more (or less) successful, going for 1-for-2 there. Which is another way of saying it’s early.
Third: Already 0-3 after three starts, Erik Bedard now has to live with four losses in four starts. Now sure, you can’t feel too sorry for the guy; that was sure to be his lot in life after surprising some this winter with a decision to sign with the Pittsburgh Pirates. With two quality starts and a pair of five-inning, two-run outings, he’s actually pitched well enough to go about 1-1 according to Baseball Prospectus’s Support-Neutral Won-Loss stats, but when you’re working with whatever run support the Bucs dredge up with the 16th-ranked offense in the league, it’s hard to expect Bedard to catch many, any or even one break.
Keep in mind, Bedard has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start, but because he’s gotten just three runs total in run support from a Pirates offense averaging two scores per contest, he’s the man getting the short straw from an already close-cropped selection.
After his 24-loss season with the original-edition Mets of 1962, it was Roger Craig who said, “I had to be pretty good for them to keep sending me out there enough to lose that many games.” I doubt Bedard will take much solace in that. Happily -- for him -- his won-loss record isn’t going to amount to much in July, when the Pirates start shopping him in earnest to contenders looking to shore up their rotations.
Home: Tweet of the Day goes to Baseball America for passing along some Bryce Harper video:
Second: Toronto’s Brett Lawrie stole home against the Royals, his first-ever steal of home, on his second recorded attempt. But he’s also tried to steal second just two times this season, and he’s be no more (or less) successful, going for 1-for-2 there. Which is another way of saying it’s early.
[+] Enlarge
Jared Wickerham/Getty ImagesErik Bedard can't catch a break, but what did he expect, going to Pittsburgh?
Jared Wickerham/Getty ImagesErik Bedard can't catch a break, but what did he expect, going to Pittsburgh?Keep in mind, Bedard has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start, but because he’s gotten just three runs total in run support from a Pirates offense averaging two scores per contest, he’s the man getting the short straw from an already close-cropped selection.
After his 24-loss season with the original-edition Mets of 1962, it was Roger Craig who said, “I had to be pretty good for them to keep sending me out there enough to lose that many games.” I doubt Bedard will take much solace in that. Happily -- for him -- his won-loss record isn’t going to amount to much in July, when the Pirates start shopping him in earnest to contenders looking to shore up their rotations.
Home: Tweet of the Day goes to Baseball America for passing along some Bryce Harper video:
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.Prospects Blog: Watch Bryce Harper Connect For His First Triple-A Home Run: Nationals uber-prospect Bryce Harper... bit.ly/Jof4Rp
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) April 23, 2012
Weekend preview: Spotlight on young Ps
April, 20, 2012
Apr 20
10:00
AM ET
By Justin Havens, ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Pitcher No. 1: Matt Moore (Rays vs. Twins, Friday)
After blowing through the competition in a small sample spanning the end of the regular season and postseason last year, Matt Moore entered the 2012 season with a great deal of hype. However, he’s going to have to harness his stuff if he’s going to reach his ceiling; Moore is throwing a very high percentage of his pitches "up" in the zone ... and it’s not surprising he’s had issues with the long ball because of that.
Pitcher No. 2: Stephen Strasburg (Nationals vs. Marlins, Saturday)
Through two starts this season, the trend of Strasburg's velocity dipping has continued. When he first came up, he succeeded with fastballs approaching 100 mph and a changeup around 90.
However, since his return from Tommy John surgery, he seems to be evolving into more of a "pitcher." His fastball velocity is down over 2 mph, but his changeup is also down nearly the exact same amount, keeping the separation between the two pitches.
Pitcher No. 3: Brian Matusz (Orioles at Angels, Friday)
It has been a remarkable fall-from-grace for Orioles lefty Brian Matusz, the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft -- ahead of players like Buster Posey, Brett Lawrie and Ike Davis and one spot behind Eric Hosmer. Unfortunately, the wheels have completely come off for Matusz, who has not won a game since June 6, 2011. When Matusz takes the mound this weekend, he will attempt to avoid going 0-12 over a 13-start stretch. The last pitcher to do that was Edgar Gonzalez from 2004-06.
Matusz has not gone seven innings in a start since Sept. 27, 2010. Part of the reason for his extended slump has been a lack of life on his fastball. After his average fastball velocity bottomed out at 86.6 mph in June of last season, it has steadily risen (to 90.7 so far in April after 89.0 in August and 89.8 in September). Unfortunately, it’s still not generating much success.
Pitcher No. 4: Kyle Drabek (Blue Jays at Royals, Friday)
Not long ago, Drabek was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Roy Halladay to Philadelphia. Last season, however, Drabek completely fell apart, posting one of the highest walk rates in baseball and generally inefficient with his pitches. While the small sample size caveat applies, he looks like a completely different pitcher so far. What has been the difference? Pitching effectively with his fastball.
After blowing through the competition in a small sample spanning the end of the regular season and postseason last year, Matt Moore entered the 2012 season with a great deal of hype. However, he’s going to have to harness his stuff if he’s going to reach his ceiling; Moore is throwing a very high percentage of his pitches "up" in the zone ... and it’s not surprising he’s had issues with the long ball because of that.
Pitcher No. 2: Stephen Strasburg (Nationals vs. Marlins, Saturday)
Through two starts this season, the trend of Strasburg's velocity dipping has continued. When he first came up, he succeeded with fastballs approaching 100 mph and a changeup around 90.
However, since his return from Tommy John surgery, he seems to be evolving into more of a "pitcher." His fastball velocity is down over 2 mph, but his changeup is also down nearly the exact same amount, keeping the separation between the two pitches.
Pitcher No. 3: Brian Matusz (Orioles at Angels, Friday)
It has been a remarkable fall-from-grace for Orioles lefty Brian Matusz, the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft -- ahead of players like Buster Posey, Brett Lawrie and Ike Davis and one spot behind Eric Hosmer. Unfortunately, the wheels have completely come off for Matusz, who has not won a game since June 6, 2011. When Matusz takes the mound this weekend, he will attempt to avoid going 0-12 over a 13-start stretch. The last pitcher to do that was Edgar Gonzalez from 2004-06.
Matusz has not gone seven innings in a start since Sept. 27, 2010. Part of the reason for his extended slump has been a lack of life on his fastball. After his average fastball velocity bottomed out at 86.6 mph in June of last season, it has steadily risen (to 90.7 so far in April after 89.0 in August and 89.8 in September). Unfortunately, it’s still not generating much success.
Pitcher No. 4: Kyle Drabek (Blue Jays at Royals, Friday)
Not long ago, Drabek was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Roy Halladay to Philadelphia. Last season, however, Drabek completely fell apart, posting one of the highest walk rates in baseball and generally inefficient with his pitches. While the small sample size caveat applies, he looks like a completely different pitcher so far. What has been the difference? Pitching effectively with his fastball.
Links: Should Dodgers game be replayed?
April, 16, 2012
Apr 16
5:30
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
If you've seen the video of the controversial triple play from the Padres-Dodgers game on Sunday, you'll see umpire Dale Scott initially raise his hands indicating a foul ball on Jesus Guzman's bunt attempt. As the ball then rolled fair, Scott reversed his call and Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis proceeded to start a triple play, snuffing a potential rally in the ninth inning of a tie game.
Dave Cameron of FanGraphs breaks down the play and calls for the game to be replayed from the point of Guzman's at-bat, his argument being that Padres' couldn't have been expected to run once Scott raised his arms, and also pointing out that one game in the expanded playoff system could be the deciding game on one team making the playoffs and another missing them.
At issue: Judgment calls cannot be protested (and thus overturned). Was this just a bad judgment by Scott -- reversing his call in the middle of a play -- or do the Padres have a right to protest based on a rules interpretation (that the play should have been ruled dead once Scott raised his arms)? To confuse matters, it was a fair ball. As reader Dave Alden wrote on FanGraphs, "Letting it stand is unfair to the Padres. Pretending it never happened would be unfair to the Dodgers. There is no perfect solution."
There is about zero chance that if the Padres do end up protesting that the call would be reversed and the game replayed from that point on (as what happened with the famous George Brett pine-tar home run game). But Dave raises an interesting point, and if the Dodgers sneak into the playoffs by a game, maybe they can give a playoff share to Mr. Scott.
Dave Cameron of FanGraphs breaks down the play and calls for the game to be replayed from the point of Guzman's at-bat, his argument being that Padres' couldn't have been expected to run once Scott raised his arms, and also pointing out that one game in the expanded playoff system could be the deciding game on one team making the playoffs and another missing them.
At issue: Judgment calls cannot be protested (and thus overturned). Was this just a bad judgment by Scott -- reversing his call in the middle of a play -- or do the Padres have a right to protest based on a rules interpretation (that the play should have been ruled dead once Scott raised his arms)? To confuse matters, it was a fair ball. As reader Dave Alden wrote on FanGraphs, "Letting it stand is unfair to the Padres. Pretending it never happened would be unfair to the Dodgers. There is no perfect solution."
There is about zero chance that if the Padres do end up protesting that the call would be reversed and the game replayed from that point on (as what happened with the famous George Brett pine-tar home run game). But Dave raises an interesting point, and if the Dodgers sneak into the playoffs by a game, maybe they can give a playoff share to Mr. Scott.
- Jon Weisman argues that there is no reason to replay the game.
- Joey Matschulat's headline about the Rangers says it all: The best team in the American League.
- The Cardinals honor the Rally Squirrel on their World Series championship rings. Best ring ever?
- Fire Brand of the AL ask a simple poll question: Is Bobby V already screwing things up?
- The Nationals have a 1.99 ERA, and if not for the Dodgers, could be the biggest story in baseball right now.
- Michael Baumann has a suggestion for Jonathan Papelbon.
- It was not a fun weekend for the Royals.
- The Angels aren't supposed to be 3-6. And Albert Pujols isn't supposed to be homerless.
- Mop-Up Duty examines Eric Thames' start for the Blue Jays.
- Jack Moore looks at the Brewers' problems preventing runs so far.
- Michael Pineda will throw a bullpen session on Tuesday.
- Will Clark is drinking beer and blowing kisses. Can he still play first base?
Links: Youngsters, TV billions, crazy starts
April, 11, 2012
Apr 11
6:30
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Stuff ...
- Baseball America has lists of the 10 youngest players in each full-season league. Mariners pitcher Erasmo Ramirez was the youngest player to make a major league roster, with a May 2, 1990 birthdate. Giancarlo Stanton is still one of the 10 youngest players in the National League.
- Walkoff Woodward looks at what happened to Justin Verlander and the Tigers in Wednesday's ninth inning.
- Neftali Feliz used his changeup a lot in his first start and he was pretty awesome.
- Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman has a piece in Variety exploring how TV networks can justify bidding billions to broadcast baseball games.
- Tristan Cockcroft has a fun look at early season paces. Yes, small sample size. It's still a fun to read.
- ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski looks at which closers are used most effectively -- ie, in high-leverage situations -- by their managers. Kudos to Mike Scioscia and Bruce Bochy.
- Franklin Rabon examines Dan Uggla's reverse-platoon split. Since 2009, Uggla is slugging nearly 50 points higher against righties.
- Our new Blue Jays blog looks at J.P. Arencibia's pitch-framing abilities. Pitch-framing is sort of the new trendy thing in defensive analysis, a big reason the Rays signed Jose Molina this offseason. Obviously, baseball people have always talked about this, but pitch f/x data allows catchers to be studied in this skill.
- One scout still believes Daniel Bard belongs in the bullpen.
- The Padres recalled Joe Wieland and Insider Eric Karabell looks at whether he can help the Padres (and fantasy owners).
- The Brewers have broken off talks with Zack Greinke about a contract extension.
- Will Freddy Galvis become a good player for the Phillies? Or is he ultimately just a younger version of Wilson Valdez? Michael Baumann ponders the question.
- Danny Duffy had a nice start for the Royals on Tuesday. OK, it was against the A's, but there many positives signs for the young left-hander.
- Jon Shields thinks the Mariners should start playing John Jaso more instead of Miguel Olivo. Jaso has yet to appear in game. The knocks against Olivo? He has trouble catching the ball and getting on base. Otherwise ... he's awesome!
- Nick Faleris looked at Brian Matusz's first start of the season for the Orioles. Remember, this is a guy everyone was calling a future ace after 2010.
- Baseball Prospectus has a list of 10 players who should receive contract extensions.
- Jorge Posada will throw out the first pitch at the Yankees' homer opener on Friday.
- Finally, Miami columnist Dan LeBetard was on ESPN Radio talking about the Ozzie Guillen situation.
New Blue Jays blog for SweetSpot network
April, 6, 2012
Apr 6
4:45
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
We're happy to announce the addition of Mop-Up Duty to our network of team blogs. Matthias Koster and friends blog about all things Toronto Blue Jays.
Here's a review of the Blue Jays' dramatic, 16-inning win on Opening Day and a recent piece on the Dustin McGowan contract extension.
The Blue Jays seem to be everyone's sleeper team to reach the playoffs in the American League, so it should be an exciting summer north of the border this year.
Here's a review of the Blue Jays' dramatic, 16-inning win on Opening Day and a recent piece on the Dustin McGowan contract extension.
The Blue Jays seem to be everyone's sleeper team to reach the playoffs in the American League, so it should be an exciting summer north of the border this year.

