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SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield and I had plenty to talk about on Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast!

1. Cole Hamels let his pitching do the talking about Bryce Harper and the Nationals Thursday, but each time Hamels throws it reminds us of his talent and contract status.

2. Albert Pujols speaks out about his slump! Do we buy his excuses or not?

3. Was Arizona's win over the Dodgers on Wednesday an important win?

4. Our emailers want to know about strength of schedule, ballpark gamesmanship, Drew Sutton and some of the more interesting pitcher-hitter matchups to watch for years to come.

5. Smaller schedule for Thursday but the amazing Justin Verlander is on the mound, as well as the only pitcher in baseball who provides a quality start each and every time out to the mound.

So download and listen to Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast and get ready for Friday’s fun show!

My special co-host for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast was ESPN writer and former GM Jim Bowden, and let’s just say neither of us held back in what was an entertaining, honest and lively show.

1. The Red Sox are apparently cool with Adrian Gonzalez playing right field, but for how long? How easy will it be for the team to trade Kevin Youkilis? And should the Red Sox and Phillies be sellers?

2. Jim shares his thoughts on his players that will be traded before July 31, leading with a former Cy Young winner plying his trade for a team that can’t afford him.

3. Ah, here’s a topic we never get to: closers. Jim and I debate the human effect for fellows like Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall.

4. When Tampa’s Joe Maddon makes unconventional decisions, we praise him. Is that fair? What if a manager not known for his good moves would have led Carlos Pena off?

5. Finally, we look at Wednesday’s schedule, which includes Cole Hamels versus Bryce Harper. The Nationals are clearly getting the last laugh on their I-95 rivals.

So download and listen to a fun Baseball Today podcast, because it’s boring when everyone agrees. And on this show, that just wasn’t the case!

First base: Magical ending. It's only 43 games and crazy things can happen between games 44 and 162, but it's starting to look like one of those seasons for the Dodgers. They're now 30-13 after one of the most exciting wins of the season, rallying from a 6-1 deficit to defeat the sinking Diamondbacks, 8-7. First, Ivan DeJesus Jr. hit a two-run, two-out double off Arizona closer J.J. Putz in the top of the ninth. Then, after Arizona put runners on the corners with one out, Kenley Jansen induced Jason Kubel to ground into a 4-6-3 double play, with Dee Gordon flying through the air as Justin Upton took him out and James Loney scooping Gordon's bounced throw. A key play happened on Upton's base hit, with Tony Gwynn Jr. making a nice play in right-center to hold Upton to a single. And Kirk Gibson didn't send Upton on the 3-2 pitch to Kubel (understandable considering Jansen's strikeout rate). As Dodger Thoughts' Jon Weisman writes, "I can't explain ... anything that is going on." Matt Kemp last played on May 13. The Dodgers are 7-2 without him and averaging 5.1 runs per game. "I'll never forget this game," DeJesus said.

Second base: Harper versus Halladay. Terrific anecdote from Mark Zuckerman, who covers the Nationals at NatsInsider.com. He tells the story of Harper saying in spring training that he's watched Roy Halladay and says he starts a lot of hitters with a slow curveball. In the third inning on Tuesday, sure enough Halladay threw Harper a first-pitch curve and Harper ripped it for a two-run triple, putting the Nationals ahead. The Nats are now 4-1 against the Phillies, setting the stage for tonight's Harper-Cole Hamels showdown.

Third base: Wilson's gem. C.J. Wilson shut down the A's, allowing one hit over eight scoreless innings, a Cliff Pennington single in the fifth. With Vernon Wells out 8-to-10 weeks after thumb surgery, the Angels can finally play the lineup they should have been playing all along: Peter Bourjos in center and Mike Trout in left. With Torii Hunter temporarily out, red-hot Mark Trumbo has been playing right field. With the ground Bourjos and Trout can cover, the Angels can live with Trumbo's lack of range. In fact, even when Hunter returns, I'd stick with this lineup -- making Hunter more of the utility guy instead of Trumbo, who needs to play every day considering the Angels' offensive problems. Yes, Bourjos is off to a slow start at the plate (.197), but it's only 84 plate appearances. Oh ... and that Albert Pujols guy hit his third home run in seven games.

Home plate: Tweet of the Day.

Dodger players cheered so loud as they sprinted onto the field as that game ended you could hear them from the press box. Unbelievable team.

— Molly Knight (@molly_knight) May 23, 2012

First base: G-G-great. That whole Gio Gonzalez won't pitch as well once he leaves the spacious confines of Oakland idea? I'm starting to think he'll be just fine in the National League. The Nationals kicked off a big week -- road trips to Philly and Atlanta -- with a 2-1 win over the Phillies as Gonzalez tossed six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts. His season numbers: 6-1, 1.98 ERA, .167 batting average, 69 strikeouts, 22 walks, one home run. Certainly, there are some areas that will bounce back to Earth -- the home run rate in particular will be next-to-impossible to maintain -- but his strikeout rate is up from 8.8 to 11.4 per nine innings while his walk rate has decreased a bit. As his 108 pitches in six innings on Monday showed, however, he still has room for refinement. Because of high pitch counts, he hasn't gone more than seven innings in a start. Unheralded Craig Stammen pitched two shutout innings in relief on Monday to help out Gonzalez's cause. If Gonzalez wants to move into that Clayton Kershaw-Cole Hamels-Cliff Lee class of left-handers and contend for a Cy Young Award, he needs to mix in some eight- or nine-inning outings.

Second base: Darvish's dud. Speaking of Cy Young contenders, Yu Darvish isn't there just yet. He was all over the place against the Mariners, walking six in four innings, throwing 96 pitches and earning an early exit as the intriguing pitching duel with Felix Hernandez turned into a one-sided contest. The Mariners were the first team to face Darvish a second time, so it will be interesting to see how batters adjust as they see him again. While he's 6-2 with a 3.05 ERA, the 32 walks in 56 innings is a big issue and the main reasons he's gone at least seven innings just three times in his nine starts.

Third base: Paulino power. Remember this name: Felipe Paulino. He began the season on the DL for the Royals with a sore elbow, but he's back and throwing heat, blanking the Yankees for 6.2 innings in K.C.'s 6-0 victory. His velocity is up there with any starter in baseball. His issue has always been control, which is how the Royals stole him a year ago from the Rockies (because the Rockies certainly don't need good arms). Through his first four starts, Paulino has a 29/7 SO/BB ratio and has now thrown 12.2 scoreless innings against the Yankees. After that dreadful 3-14 start, the Royals have gone 14-10. Don't count them out in the weak AL Central. As for the Yankees ... welcome to .500!

Home plate: Tweet of the Day. Giancarlo Stanton's second grand slam of 2012 was a monumental blast off Jamie Moyer that broke the scoreboard in left field at Marlins Park. Here's a pic of the scoreboard.

Stanton is to #Marlins what Hulk is to Avengers... I have expect him to hit a home run, break bat on his knee and floss his teeth w it.

— Troy Renck, Rockies (@TroyRenck) May 22, 2012

In response to Cleveland Indians closer Chris Perez complaining about the team's attendance -- the Indians rank last in the majors in per-game average -- I wrote a little bit about Cleveland's attendance in Clearing the Bases. Susan Petrone of "It's Pronounced Lajaway" had an analogy today, comparing Indians fans to an abused dog: It will take time for the Indians to earn the fans' trust.

That makes sense; one decent season and a good 40 games won't send fans flocking to the ballpark. Still, the attendance problems are a little odd; this isn't Tampa Bay, where the fans have never shown up, or Pittsburgh, where the Pirates haven't fielding a winning team since 1992. This goes beyond waiting for a team to win or a city's economic climate, although all that factors in a bit. It's perhaps worth noting that when the Indians had their great attendance run from 1995 through 2001 the team was not only good (six playoff seasons in seven years) but the Browns were also absent from 1996 to 1998. The Cavs, a strong team through much of the '90s, collapsed in 1999 and suffered through a string of terrible seasons. So the Indians built up a following right at the exact right time. The Oakland A's similarly attracted their largest gates when the Raiders were in Los Angeles.

In most cities, baseball attendance can be cyclical and bandwagon. A decade ago, the Mariners led the major in attendance; but after years of boring, lousy baseball, the Mariners now rank 28th. The Indians, however, aren't boring or lousy. They're in first place. I suspect the front office needs to do a better job marketing the team. And if the team keep winning, the fans will eventually start showing up again.

• A good piece on ESPNW about women who are running minor league teams.
• Rory Paap has an excellent take on Matt Cain, who is pitching better than ever.
• Jon Weisman wrote this before Chad Billingsley's start Sunday night, but it's all about Billingsley's reputation to have "meltdown" innings.
• One of the few bright spots for the Brewers has been catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who is hitting .342. J.P. Breen breaks down Lucroy's hot start and says he's been hitting the ball well to right field.
• Bill Baer breaks down one critical at-bat from a weekend, when Shane Victorino swung at the first pitch after a walk bases loaded. Is that dumb baseball?
• A big week for the Nationals, as they get the Phillies and Braves on the road.
• One Angels fan is starting to feel a little depressed over this team.

If you ever need evidence that player development isn't linear, look no further than Adam Jones.

After a steady rise through the minor leagues, he flamed out in his first big-league exposure, was pretty much the best player in the majors for the first two months of the 2009 season, leveled off for two years and now, of course, is playing as well as anyone in baseball.

On Saturday night, Jones went 3-for-4 with a homer to help the Baltimore Orioles beat the Washington Nationals 6-5 to maintain their first-place position in the American League East. In the process, Jones raised his season line to .310 AVG/.356 OBP/.619 SLG with 14 jacks.

As fans, we love watching greatness, and it's frustrating to watch someone who we think should be great fall short of that. And Jones always seemed like a guy who should be a superstar. He has a fluid swing and natural power, and he glides across the outfield. And when he put up a .344/.398/.607 line with 11 home runs through the first two months of the 2009, the baseball world thought it had another star on its hands. But then he hit just .229 the rest of the way, and he hadn't reached those heights until this season.

The crazy thing is, he was actually remarkably consistent over the last three seasons. Check out his batting lines:

2009: .277/.335/.457
2010: .284/.325/.442
2011: .280/.319/.466

Those numbers, combined with strong defense in center, made Jones a valuable player, just not a star. And because of those eight weeks in 2009, we all knew there was a beast somewhere inside of Jones just waiting to come out. The Orioles, in fact, were counting on it, and now that Jones has rediscovered his superstar form, he and his club have the baseball world taking notice.

Like the Orioles, it's easy to say that Jones is playing over his head. For example, 25.5 percent of his fly balls have gone over the fence, which is twice his career rate. And since he doesn't walk all that much, he's always going to be subject to the vagaries of balls in play. However, I'd like to think this is simply a star coming into his own at age 26, and maybe he has discovered a new level of play.

Fact is there are few players in baseball I'd rather watch than Jones right now, and the Orioles' surprising success has been one of most fun stories of the year. Whether it for a month or five years, I'm going to enjoy this kind of play from Jones and the O's for as long as it lasts.

Tuesday night was an angry one for quite a few players, managers and umpires, but Mark Simon and I were in good moods to chronicle it all for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast!

1. Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg had a miserable outing Tuesday, and then when his manager told the world what might have contributed, it got worse.

2. Toronto Blue Jays slugger Brett Lawrie lost his cool in the ninth inning Tuesday, and look for the Blue Jays to be without his services for a while. Mark says Lawrie needs help.

3. The Angels found a fall guy for the struggles of Albert Pujols, but is manager Mike Scioscia safe?

4. The Mets are in the news for David Wright being pulled from a game, and also a topic for an emailer, as well as Atlanta’s offense and success for certain days of the week.

5. Wednesday’s schedule features the ESPN matchup of Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson, a pair of right-handers that the metrics do not favor.

So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, because we’re never removed early for the fear of retaliation.

First: Derek Lowe spun his first shutout in nearly seven years? OK, that’s interesting, but hey, it was the Twins; they’re terrible. And he induced four DP grounders? That’s pretty cool, but part of what goes with the territory facing a balls in play-oriented lineup like the Twins’. But he did it without a single strikeout? OK, now that’s unusual. The last guy to throw a nine-inning complete-game shutout without a K was Scott Erickson a decade ago, on April 28, 2002 (thank you Baseball-Reference.com).

And to do it with so much help from his friends, in the form of those four Twin-killing twin-killings? Nobody’s done that since Ken Forsch got that sort of boost from the Angels’ infield back in May of 1981. Add in that Lowe did this at a time when strikeouts are at all-time highs, while generating just one swinging strike all day ... and words fail. His pulling off this sort of game is sort of like baseball’s answer to the coelacanth, because it’s like Christy Mathewson stepped out of a time machine and just mowed down a big-league lineup (even the Twins). It’s just one of those very, very improbable things you have to enjoy when you see it happen.

Of course, there’s going to be something automatic and yappy that will immediately tell us that he wasn’t that good, and that he hasn’t been that good, and that run estimators like FIP or xFIP will tell you he should be giving up an extra run and a half or almost two runs more than his current 2.47 ERA. Which is fine and worth keeping in mind, going forward about what might happen and should happen, but in the meantime the shutout’s a part of history, and Derek Lowe made it.

Second: Bryce Harper hit his second-ever home run in the major leagues, and it wasn’t front-page news. Considering it was the Nats’ lone run, that isn’t really shocking -- at this point, not only is he tasked with just proving he belongs day in and day out, the bigger problem is how the Nats will stop running through his teammates like Spinal Tap runs through drummers.

Third: You might reasonably feel sorry for Will Ohman for his part in Tuesday’s eight-run inning that erased a 6-0 White Sox lead, or his subsequent responsibility for the Tigers making that a four-run lead in the next frame. His lot in life’s not fun as is: With a 140-point career OPS difference between getting lefties out and righties aboard, he’s tasked with situational heroics, trying to get a lefty power monster like Prince Fielder out twice in a series.

That said, when he came into the fracas in the Cell, the game was still just 6-5 with the tying run on first and just one out ... and why was he even being used? To face and erase utility scrubeenie Don Kelly? That matchup wasn’t going to happen, not with Delmon Young on the Tigers’ bench.

So rookie skipper Robin Ventura walked into that, Jim Leyland pulls Kelly, Young gets hit by an Ohman offering, tying run scuttles to second, and the top of the order’s due up on a hot day in the Cell, when every pulled pitch off a righty’s bat has souvenir potential. Sure enough, Austin Jackson goes yard with an Earl Weaver special to put a three-spot on the board.

Next inning? Ohman finally gets to pitch to the left-handed people that he’s supposed to see, the lefty batters who won’t get pulled at the first sight of a southpaw: Fielder, Brennan Boesch, and Alex Avila. Except that Ohman’s no longer fresh, and he puts two of the three of them on base, and they both score, and the bloodbath's a slightly darker shade of red.

Suffice to say, if there’s a Will Ohman owner’s manual, you wouldn’t find games like this in it, not unless it’s followed by, “If you see this happening, call tech support.”

Home plate: From old friend Jay Jaffe of baseball Prospectus, a man who’s never been afraid of letting his Dodger fandom shine through:

You used to be cool, Chad Billingsley

— Jay Jaffe (@jay_jaffe) May 16, 2012

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Forget Albert Pujols. There's another reason to watch the Los Angeles Angels, and his name is Mike Trout.

For all the hype Bryce Harper has rightfully received, it's time to start giving a few headlines to another rookie phenom, time to give the Left Coast a little love. Trout went 3-for-4 with a home run, a stolen base and three runs scored in the Angels' 4-0 victory over the A's on Tuesday. In 15 games since getting recalled from Triple-A, Trout is hitting .316 BA/.369 OBP/.561 SLG, reminding Angels fans what an All-Star batting line is supposed to look like and why a homegrown, five-tool rookie with young, fresh legs is a player to get more pumped about watching than a money-for-hire Hall of Famer you purchased on the free-agent market.

So while we wait for Pujols to get untracked, maybe the Angels' answer to their offensive prayers -- they've been shut out an MLB-leading eight times -- is a kid who doesn't turn 21 until August.

Against Bartolo Colon, he took a middle-in fastball and crushed it just to the right of center field, off the back wall behind the center-field fence in Anaheim. There aren't many leadoff hitters who can mash a pitch with that type of authority. The other day, he showcased his quick, compact swing, yanking a 2-1 fastball from Yu Darvish well over the left-field fence in Texas. His first home run came on a 1-0 fastball off Toronto's Kyle Drabek, a 93 mph heater low in the zone that Trout hit to left-center.

I think those returns are pretty clear: Trout can do some serious damage when he gets into a fastball count.

Trout is even faster than Harper and much more advanced defensively (although he lacks Harper's arm). And for all the awe for Harper's quick rise, Trout is only a year older. Like Harper, he debuted in the majors while still 19 years old. Like the previous two 19-year-old center-field phenoms -- a couple of guys named Andruw Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. -- Trout has that broad range of skills that should make him a franchise player as he matures.

My favorite aspect of the Trout/Harper comparisons is that the two will always be linked, even though they play in different leagues and cities three time zones apart. Just like we debated Rodriguez and Jeter and Garciaparra back in the late '90s, or like New Yorkers debated Mays and Mantle and Snider in the 1950s, I'm sure we'll be endlessly debating Trout and Harper for years to come.

The other highly rated prospects entering the season were Tampa Bay Rays lefty Matt Moore and Mariners catcher/designed hitter Jesus Montero. They aren't off to impressive starts like Trout and Harper, but let's take a closer look at them as well.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
I'll make this one brief. We've seen Harper's lightning-quick bat speed and raw power with his home runs in back-to-back games -- one blast to dead center and the one Tuesday to deep right-center. We've also seen a few misplays in the field, however, from losing a ball in the darkened skies Sunday to dropping a fly ball Monday.

And of course, we've seen the rocket arm and the top-grade athleticism. There's no reason to believe he can't be a superb fielder with more experience. I think the biggest positive is his strikeout rate hasn't been excessive, with 11 in 60 at-bats. Along with his ability to hit left-handers, that was the big concern of his premature call-up. While there were initial thoughts that his time in the majors would be temporary, his play and the Nationals' injuries mean he's here to stay.

Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays
When I polled the SweetSpot network bloggers before the season for their American League rookie of the year predictions, Moore came out on top, outpointing Darvish. I wasn't quite as optimistic, as I believed Moore's spectacular playoff performance against the Rangers raised expectations to unrealistic levels. The only rookie starter since 2000 to pitch at least 162 innings with an ERA less than 3.00 was Jeremy Hellickson, and his flukey .224 average on balls in play had something to do with that. With Moore, I still wanted to see a guy who had the consistent command needed to dominate in the majors.

That's been a big issue with him so far, as he's walked 22 batters in 39 innings, a rate of 5.1 walks per nine. As Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Info points out, Moore also has struggled with runners on base:


Justin also writes that Moore "continues to leave entirely too many balls up in the zone, ranking sixth out of 115 pitchers in percentage of total pitches 'up' in the zone." This ties into Moore having the third-highest walk rate (12.4 percent) among starters, behind only Ubaldo Jimenez and Drabek, and six home runs allowed in seven starts.

There are no major issues here, other than pointing out that most young pitchers do go through a learning curve. Hellickson -- who doesn't have the raw stuff Moore owns -- set the bar high with his own rookie campaign, but that type of season is the exception.

Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners
It's also a mixed bag so far with Montero. With five home runs, he's displayed the power stroke scouts projected. His overall batting line of .256/.285/.411, however, isn't much to get excited about, as the occasional long ball is marred by a poor 29/6 strikeout/walk ratio.

There are a few things going on here. He has expanded the strike zone, swinging at 36.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. That's not necessarily a career-killing attribute (Josh Hamilton currently has the second-highest rate in the majors), but it's among the 30 worst percentages so far. The bigger problem is he isn't making contract on those pitches and certainly not good contact. He's swinging and missing at those pitches 56.6 percent of the time, which again places him among the 30 worst rates.

When you dig deeper into the numbers, it's pretty clear what's happening. Check out the heat maps below. On the left, Montero against "hard" stuff, and on the right, Montero against "soft" stuff.



Against "hard" stuff, he's hitting .362 (25-for-69) with four home runs and five doubles. Against "soft" stuff, he's hitting .133 (8-for-60) with one home run and no doubles. So if pitchers get ahead in the count, they can get Montero to chase the offspeed stuff out of the zone.

A final issue is Montero's ability -- or lack of it -- to pull the ball. While he's known for his opposite-field power, I'm not sure you can live off that trait alone. Of Montero's five home runs, two have gone to right-center, one to center and two to left-center. His hit chart is littered with fly balls to right field and the right-field line. Frankly, he just hasn't shown the ability to pull the ball with any authority. To me, this reads like a guy who can be jammed inside and will chase pitches outside. Look, the pitch recognition should improve, but he's going to have to figure out how to do more damage to all fields.

The injury to Miguel Olivo also forced the Mariners to play Montero more regularly behind the plate. I haven't seen the defensive butcher advertised, but he's clearly a work in progress. A couple of starts ago, Kevin Millwood was constantly shaking him off. However, the two were on the same page in Millwood's win over the Yankees on Sunday. Opponents are 8-for-10 stealing bases off him.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Eric and I recorded this on Monday. It goes with this post on the NL's best team. You can go vote in the poll on that page, but here are the results through nearly 8,000 votes:

Braves: 40 percent
Dodgers: 25 percent
Cardinals: 14 percent
Nationals: 11 percent
Other: 10 percent

Eric Karabell and Keith Law were your hosts on Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast and they talked about baseball stuff.

1. Matt Kemp didn't want to go on the DL, but it's better to have him rest than play at half speed. But is Andre Ethier really going to play some center field?

2. Bryce Harper hit his first home run. The boys discuss.

3. When do you give up on your team having a chance at the playoffs?

4. Will Stephen Strasburg pitch enough innings to have a chance at winning the Cy Young Award?

5. Keith discusses the release of his first mock draft.

All that and more on Tuesday's big show!

Heading into the weekend, the St. Louis Cardinals appeared to be the class of the National League, but the Atlanta Braves marched into town and swept the Cardinals while scoring 23 runs in three games. With the Philadelphia Phillies struggling and the Miami Marlins recovering from an 8-14 start, which team is the best in the NL right now?

The Los Angeles Dodgers own the best record in the majors -- a half-game better than the Texas Rangers -- but it doesn't seem as if a lot of people believe in them just yet.

Do you?

Los Angeles Dodgers (23-11, plus-34 run differential)
The case for: They have the best player in the NL in Matt Kemp, but even last week, when Kemp battled a sore hamstring and had just four hits, the Dodgers had an .869 team OPS and went 5-1. Catcher A.J. Ellis is third in the majors with a .462 OBP, Mark Ellis has a .385 OBP, and Andre Ethier has a .364 OBP. That's four guys who have been getting on base, which means the Dodgers are a relative offensive juggernaut. They have the best pitching in the NL, Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly are a combined 10-0 and fit perfectly as fly ball pitchers at Dodger Stadium, where the club is 15-3. Overall, the rotation ERA of 2.91 is second in the league.

The case against: C'mon, Ellis and Elllis sounds more like a law firm than the meat of a championship lineup. They're getting little offense from shortstop Dee Gordon and third baseman Juan Uribe, and their left fielders have combined for one home run. Capuano and Lilly aren't this good, and the team has played a pretty soft schedule thus far with only two series (Braves and Nationals) against teams above .500. And this Kemp hamstring injury could be more serious than just him missing a day or two.

Atlanta Braves (22-13, plus-34 run differential)
The case for: The best team in the NL has to be in the NL East, and the Braves showed they're that team with their weekend sweep in St. Louis. They lead the NL in runs scored, and Brian McCann hasn't really started to hit. Thanks to the dominant duo of Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, the Braves haven't lost a game they've led after six innings. Atlanta has also played just 13 of its first 35 games at home. The fact that the rotation ranks 15th in ERA is actually a good sign: They're nine games over .500 despite that.

The case against: Actually, the struggles of the rotation aren't a good sign. Brandon Beachy has been the team's only reliable starter, and even his numbers are a little flukey, with a .220 batting average on balls in play and just one home run allowed in 45 innings. The bullpen is 9-1 and has held leads, but the signs say that luck won't continue. Kimbrel, Venters and Eric O'Flaherty are allowing runners at a much higher rate than 2011. Chipper Jones has 22 RBIs in 25 games; that RBI rate can't continue.

@dschoenfield Braves.Timely hitting throughout lineup, Very good starting pitching, Top RPs 7-9 inns, good health and mostly youthful team

— Lyle Wood (@wood_back) May 14, 2012

Washington Nationals (21-13, plus-15 run differential)
The case for: That rotation has a chance to be one of the best we've seen in a long time. So far it has compiled a 2.31 ERA and allowed opponents to hit just .202. Ross Detwiler has a 1.02 WHIP, and that's the worst of the five starters. The team is eight games over .500 even though Mike Morse hasn't played a game, Ryan Zimmerman missed 13 games, and Jayson Werth is on the DL. If they can hold things together until Morse and Werth return, the lineup could be solid.

The case against: Baseball isn't 90 percent pitching ... or even 75. The Nats are averaging 3.56 runs per game, 14th in the NL, and that's likely to get worse without Werth and Wilson Ramos. Bryce Harper is exciting, but he has just a .663 OPS. The injuries are just going to be too much to overcome, and once the starting rotation falls back a little bit, so will the team's win-loss record.

@dschoenfield Washington #Nationals (21-13) -- best starting rotation and playing well in spite of hobbled hitters.

— Chris Rinaldi (@Chris_Rinaldi) May 14, 2012

St. Louis Cardinals (20-14, plus-65 run differential)
The case for: That run differential shows that St. Louis has been the league's most dominant team. Its offense is so deep that Mike Matheny will have trouble finding regular playing time for Allen Craig, who has five home runs and 16 RBIs in 10 games since returning from the DL. Carlos Beltran has more home runs than Kemp, Rafael Furcal has a .447 OBP, and Jon Jay is hitting .347. The Cardinals lead the NL in batting average, home runs, OBP and slugging. Then there's the pitching staff. Lance Lynn, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse each have ERAs of 2.08 or better. Lynn, in particular, looks legit with a power fastball and curveball, and Westbrook and Lohse are strike-throwing machines. Just wait until Adam Wainwright gets going and Chris Carpenter possibly returns.

The case against: Despite that run differential, the Cards have just the fourth-best record. In a sense, you get the idea they blew some of this early offense and didn't build up a 24-10 record or such. They've also played a soft schedule, playing almost exclusively within the weak NL Central. Other than two series against the 17-16 Reds, the only .500 team they played was the Braves, and they were swept. Do you really believe in Lohse and Westbrook. And we don't have to mention that Furcal and Jay aren't going to hit .383 and .347 all season.

@dschoenfield The St. Louis Cardinals because the pitching staff is overachieving, & Furcal and Beltran are providing veteran leadership.

— Zach Loesl (@mmm9731) May 14, 2012

The Atlanta Braves pulled off an impressive sweep in St. Louis over the weekend to take over the first place in the National League East. Most impressively, they did it by scoring 23 runs in the three games. While it's not a surprise the Braves are contenders early on, what is surprising is they've done it more with their bats than their arms. Here is our list of top 10 early season surprises.

1. The Atlanta Braves' offense.

As Diane Firstman wrote the other day on the SweetSpot blog, the Braves have a chance at a historic turnaround on offense. A year ago, they averaged 3.96 runs per game, 8 percent below the major league average of 4.28 runs per game. This year, they're averaging 5.40 runs while the major league average has fallen to 4.18. That's 29 percent better, a 37 percent increase over 2011. Only a handful of teams have shown a 30 percent improvement like that year-to-year.

Some of the improvement was expected --- Jason Heyward and Martin Prado hitting better, for example. Michael Bourn has been superlative in the leadoff spot, hitting .336 with a .399 on-base percentage, but the biggest surprise has perhaps been the old man, Chipper Jones, who is hitting .299 and slugging .506. He has 22 RBIs in 24 games. With rookie shortstop Tyler Pastornicky holding his own, the Braves go eight deep and the scary thing is catcher Brian McCann hasn't really started to hit and you get the feeling Heyward is ready to explode.

2. The Baltimore Orioles are in first place.

The Orioles bounced back from losing three of four to the Texas Rangers by winning their weekend series against the Rays to maintain a one-game lead over Tampa. The Orioles live and die by the home run on offense -- they lead the majors with 54; their .310 OBP, however, ranks just 17th in the majors. Jake Arrieta got pounded again on Sunday and has allowed 13 runs his past two starts after that eight-inning shutout performance against the Yankees. That means three-fifths of Baltimore rotation has an ERA over 5.00. So, yes, there are obvious question marks here. But for now the Orioles have Matt Wieters and Adam Jones mashing, a lights-out bullpen and Jason Hammel pitching like an ace.

3. The Oakland Athletics and Houston Astros aren't terrible.

I heard a lot of mocking of the A's and Astros heading into the season -- predictions of 105 losses, 110, maybe even 115. Both teams have played solid baseball. The A's are 18-17 and as always Billy Beane has constructed a pitching staff that will keep the A's respectable. Brandon McCarthy, Bartolo Colon and Tommy Milone throw strikes, while rookie Jarrod Parker has looked good in his first four starts. Set-up man Ryan Cook, acquired with Parker in the Trevor Cahill trade, hasn't allowed a run in 16.2 innings (and hardly a hit -- opponents are batting .060 against him.)

The Astros, meanwhile, are 15-19 but have actually outscored their opponents. Jose Altuve is as fun as any player in the game, Jed Lowrie has played well and veteran Wandy Rodriguez could be an attractive trade chip if he keeps pitching like this. The Astros aren't going to be playoff contenders, but at least they've giving their fans a reason to show up this summer.

4. Bryan LaHair and Jeff Samardzija.

The Chicago Cubs are bad team but have two of the season's best individual stories. Minor league vet LaHair is putting up All-Star numbers, hitting .340/.437/.670. Samardzija has been a revelation in the rotation, considering he had trouble throwing strikes as a reliever in 2011. His average fastball velocity of 94.7 mph trails only Stephen Strasburg among starters and his changeup has become one of the best strikeout pitches in the game. With a 4-1 record and 2.89 ERA, the former Notre Dame wide receiver has turned into must-see viewing for Cubs fans.

5. Derek Jeter.

Admit it, you saw more decline, you thought maybe he was just about done. Maybe you wanted him to be done. Jeter is hitting .372, has 14 extra-base hits, hasn't missed a game, and is playing like 27-year-old Jeter, not 37-year-old Jeter.

6. A.J. Ellis.

OK, Matt Kemp has been superhuman and Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly are both 5-0 but my favorite story on the team that owns baseball's best record is their obscure 31-year-old catcher who ranks third in the majors in OBP -- his .462 OBP higher than Josh Hamilton's .455. Ellis' 21 walks has been boosted by five freebies but the on-base skills are legit. Hey, Don, how about moving Ellis in front of Kemp in the lineup?

7. Bryce Harper.

The Nationals suffered a devastating injury with the loss of catcher Wilson Ramos this weekend, the latest in a string of injuries that includes Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Drew Storen. Despite that, the Nationals are just a half-game behind the Braves in the NL East thanks to their dominant rotation. We certainly didn't expect Harper to be up so soon, but the 19-year-old has held his own. Trouble is, however, the injuries mean Harper may have to do more than hold his own. I wouldn't bet against him.

8. Parity rules the day.

The Red Sox, Angels and Phillies are in last place.

9. David Wright hitting .400.

When Wright fractured his pinkie four games into the season, Mets fans feared the worst for their franchise third baseman who has battled a string of injuries in recent season. Instead, Wright missed a few games and hasn't stopped hitting since. He's hitting .444 over his past 14 games and the Mets are 19-15 and should not be underestimated.

10. Pitchers are still throwing strikes to Hamilton.

Only Clint Barmes has swung at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone. Hamilton swings at the first pitch over 50 percent of the time. And yet ... OK, easier said than done. As Chipper said after Hamilton swatted four home runs against the Orioles, "He's a bad man."

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Washington placing Wilson Ramos on the disabled list has to be seen as the move of the day. First, because he’s gone for the season, which makes him the latest big-time loss to risk spoiling the Nationals' coming-out party this season.

The lineup’s a mess. They’ve already had to endure a brief DL stint from Ryan Zimmerman, and they’re still dealing with roughly two months without Mike Morse. Jayson Werth’s comeback from his broken wrist might happen so late in the season it runs up against the end of the minor-league season, which would eliminate his shot at a live-game rehab assignment and endanger his ability to contribute in the last month.

Add all of those losses up, and it doesn’t matter if Bryce Harper is the best thing since sliced bread: No matter how good he is, he can’t be the whole loaf. Is there any reason for hope?

Perhaps surprisingly, yes. The team will get Morse back soon, and adding him to Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche gives the Nats a reasonable heart of the order -- not great, but a group you can score runs with. Danny Espinosa will come around, and we’ll see if Harper’s protean talents adapt quickly enough to give Mike Rizzo enough cause to stick with the injury-advanced timetable for having him in the majors.

The interesting immediate question, though, is whether or not Ramos’ replacement behind the plate, Jesus Flores, could be part of an effective enough Nat attack. Before Flores tore up his shoulder and had to sit out the entirety of the 2010 season, you had reason to believe he’d be every bit the starter people have already come to expect Ramos to be. During the 2009 season, when he was 24, he’d hit .260/.313/.406 -- not shabby for a guy who had to deal with getting nabbed from the Mets straight out of A-ball in the Rule 5 draft after 2006. Despite having to make a three-level jump, he’d become an offensive asset as a catcher.

Where projections are concerned, that year away Flores spent recovering from surgery to repair a SLAP tear to the labrum in his throwing shoulder has seriously cramped the upside he might have had. When Flores came back last year, Ramos was already the organization’s new catcher of the future, and Ivan Rodriguez was marking time as the primary backup, drawing Flores just 20 starts on the season. But now he’s got a shot, and if he can recapture any semblance of his past promise, he’ll be a huge source of help for a Nats team that could use it.

The other guy now tasked with the Nats’ receiving chores is no slouch either: Sandy Leon isn’t a great prospect, but he’s a tremendous catch-and-throw receiver with a career 46 percent caught-stealing rate, and he’s a switch-hitter with good contact-hitting ability. He isn’t just the latest chip off the Wil Nieves block as possible backups go.

It might be hard to stay optimistic about the Nats’ catching situation or their offense in light of their litany of injuries. Certainly there’s an element of tragedy to see a player as promising as Ramos go down. But they’re not without weapons, and there’s a lot of baseball to come.


Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Entering Thursday's start against the Pirates, Stephen Strasburg has made six starts and pitched 38 innings. He's 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA, has the highest fastball velocity among starters in the major leagues, throws strikes and is on the short list of the best pitchers in baseball.

Of course, he's reportedly on a 160-inning limit in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. At his current rate of 6.3 innings per start, he'll reach 160 innings in his 26th start. That means shutting him down in late August and missing his final six or seven starts.

The problem, of course, is that the Nationals are a good bet to still be in a heated NL East pennant race in late August. How do you tell your season-ticket holders and your fans that you're shutting down your best player? That you're decreasing your chances of winning? You can't do it. Isn't the goal to win? It's easy for GM Mike Rizzo to say in March or April that the club wants to limit Strasburg's workload; it's a different story if the team is a game out of first place on Sept. 15.

But it's certainly understandable why the team wants to play it as safe as possible, although I'm not sure there's evidence that pitching 160 innings is any "safer" than 180 or 200 or 220. That's another topic. For now, let's stick to the thesis that Strasburg should pitch 160 innings. Here's my idea of how to do it while still keeping him available down the stretch.

When Chien-Ming Wang returns from the DL (he made his fourth rehab start on Wednesday night), use Wang as a spot starter of sorts. The Nationals have indicated they don't want to do this, that they'd prefer to keep Strasburg pitching every fifth game. There are two options here: You could simply sub in Wang for Strasburg from time to time, say one start per month. Or you could use Wang to push Strasburg back a day or two every so often.

For example, if Strasburg pitches every fifth game, he'd be scheduled to go May 15 (Padres), May 20 (Orioles) and May 25 (Braves). If you gave Wang the May 20 start against Baltimore, you could push Strasburg back to May 21 or May 22, when the Nationals play division rival Philadelphia. Or instead of having Strasburg face the Mets on June 7, use Wang and push Strasburg back a day to face a much tougher Red Sox lineup. If done in the right fashion, you could actually exploit Strasburg to make sure he faces tougher opponents or more division games.

You need a flexible manager, but you can manipulate a six-man rotation like this fairly easily. You could still keep veterans Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson pitching every fifth day, while using Wang to save innings with young arms Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler. The risk is that the starters wouldn't keep the same routine or have the same number of rest days between starts, but the possible reward is that your rotation would be less fatigued heading into September. And remember, Strasburg, Zimmermann and Detwiler have never come close to 180 innings, let alone 200, in a season. Strasburg isn't the only starter where innings could be an issue.

OK, maybe you don't want to jump starts around like that. Too complicated. You can still push Strasburg deeper into the season pretty easily. For example, sticking to the every-fifth-game rule, you could skip the following starts:

May 15 (Padres)
July 5 (Giants, final start before All-Star break)

Make him the fifth starter coming out of the break, meaning he doesn't start again until July 17, and then skip these starts:

Aug. 7 (Astros)
Sept. 4 (Cubs)
Sept. 21 (Brewers)

That would give him 20 more starts, on top of the six he's already made, heading into the final series of the season ... against the Phillies. If the Nats need him, they could stretch him to a 27th start. This way, they'd keep him active through September, and thanks to the long break around the All-Star Game, they'd have to "skip" him only four times.

And if the Nationals make the playoffs ... well ... you have to go for it, right?