SweetSpot: Washington Nationals
I did my American League All-Star team yesterday. Here's my National League squad. A few more tougher calls in the NL.
Catcher: Yadier Molina, Cardinals (.319/.359/.477, 12 HR, 80 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Two questions: Is Molina a legitimate MVP candidate and how will he fare in the voting? Sure, he's a strong candidate, although I have Andrew McCutchen as my clear No. 1 guy. Due to his relatively low runs plus RBIs total (he has 68 runs scored), Molina would certainly be an unconventional MVP candidate. Wins Above Replacement accounts for some of Molina's defense -- such as throwing out runners -- but can't measure some of the intangibles, such as the confidence he gave to the young St. Louis starters. Molina's offense numbers are similar to last year, when he finished fourth in voting, so I wouldn't be surprised if he jumps up to second this season.
First base: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks (.302/.401/.553, 36 HR, 124 RBI, 7.1 WAR)
Goldschmidt or Joey Votto? It's not quite as simple as Goldschmidt's 51-RBI advantage as both put up similar numbers otherwise, with Votto having the edge in on-base percentage (.436) and Goldschmidt in power (36 home runs to 24). Both were extremely durable -- Goldschmidt has missed two games, Votto zero -- and solid defenders. The one big difference is an advanced metric called Win Probability Added, a category Goldschmidt led all NL position players in, thanks in part to his .350 average in high-leverage situations and nine home runs in late and close situations (second-most in the majors to Chris Davis). I'm confident Goldschmidt is the right choice here.
Second base: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals (.320/.394/.484, 11 HR, 78 RBI, 6.7 WAR)
An easy choice as Carpenter leads the NL in runs, hits and doubles while ranking in the top 10 in numerous other categories. I'm guessing Molina garners more MVP support, but Carpenter is just as worthy to finish in the top five.
Third base: David Wright, Mets (.308/.393/.516, 18 HR, 57 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Pedro Alvarez leads the NL with 36 home runs and has knocked in 100 but a .233 average and sub-.300 OBP means he created a ton of outs to generate those runs. Ryan Zimmerman waited too long to start hitting. Chris Johnson hit .321 for the Braves. None were above-average defenders. So almost by default I'll go with Wright, who easily has the highest WAR even though he missed 50 games.
Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons, Braves (.244/.292/.390, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 6.5 WAR)
I've been raving about Simmons all season so I can't change now. Troy Tulowitzki was great once again and relatively healthy (125 games), although he hit 61 points higher at home. Hanley Ramirez was the best on a per at-bat basis but played just 86 games. Ian Desmond flew under the radar year for the Nationals. But Simmons is my guy, even with that sub-.300 OBP. His defense was that good.
Left field: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies (.302/.367/.591, 26 HR, 70 RBI, 5.1 WAR)
Starling Marte had an excellent all-around season (41 steals, great defense) for the Pirates and Matt Holliday was solid for the Cardinals. Gonzalez's season was similar to Wright's -- if he'd remained healthy, he'd be the obvious choice, but he missed 50 games. Unlike Tulo, he actually hit better on the road, so it's not a Coors-inflated season. I'll go with CarGo just barely over Marte.
Center field: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (.317/.404/.508, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 8.2 WAR)
Carlos Gomez would be an MVP candidate if he had better teammates. Shin-Soo Choo gave the Reds exactly what they needed, a leadoff hitter who got on base. But this was McCutchen's season as he often carried a mediocre Pittburgh offense and hit .339/.441/.561 in the second half, helping keep the Pirates in the division title race. He's the likely MVP winner and not a "weak" MVP, as some have speculated. His WAR is higher than the past three NL MVPs, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and Votto. He may not drive in 100 runs or score 100 (he's at 97), but it was the best all-around season in the league.
Right field: Jayson Werth, Nationals (.318/.398/.532, 25 HR, 82 RBI, 4.8 WAR)
A loaded position, and that's with Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton missing significant time. Jay Bruce, Yasiel Puig, Hunter Pence and Marlon Byrd all have their supporters (and Gerardo Parra leads in WAR). The knock against Werth, like Wright and Gonzalez, is that he missed significant time (129 games). But Bruce has a .329 OBP. Puig didn't get called up until June and Pence's monster September (11 HR, 29 RBI) came after the Giants had long been eliminated and arguably against dubious September pitching.
Starting pitchers: Clayton Kersaw, Dodgers (16-9, 1.83 ERA, 8.0 WAR); Cliff Lee, Phillies (14-8, 2.87 ERA, 7.2 WAR); Jose Fernandez, Marlins (12-6, 2.19 ERA, 6.3 WAR); Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (19-9, 2.94 ERA, 6.2 WAR); Matt Harvey, Mets (9-5, 2.27 ERA, 5.4 WAR)
Oh, Cliff Lee is still good. There were no shortage of top starters in the NL as 18 qualified starters have posted an ERA of 3.25 or under, the most since 17 did it in 1992 and 10 more than last year.
Left-handed setup guy: Luis Avilan, Braves (5-0, 1.55 ERA)
Part of Atlanta's dominant bullpen, Avilan fanned just 38 in 64 innings but allowed a .173 average and just one home run. He gets great movement on his two-seam sinking fastball, resulting in fewer K's but a lot of groundballs. Honorable mention to Pittsburgh's Justin Wilson.
Right-handed setup guy: Mark Melancon, Pirates (3-2, 1.39 ERA)
He had a couple rough outings in September, but was dominant throughout the season, first setting up Jason Grilli and then earning 16 saves when Grilli was injured.
Closer: Craig Kimbrel, Braves (4-3, 50 saves, 1.23 ERA)
He did blow four save chances and wasn't quite as statistically dominant as last season -- and still finished with 1.23 ERA and 50 saves.
Catcher: Yadier Molina, Cardinals (.319/.359/.477, 12 HR, 80 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Two questions: Is Molina a legitimate MVP candidate and how will he fare in the voting? Sure, he's a strong candidate, although I have Andrew McCutchen as my clear No. 1 guy. Due to his relatively low runs plus RBIs total (he has 68 runs scored), Molina would certainly be an unconventional MVP candidate. Wins Above Replacement accounts for some of Molina's defense -- such as throwing out runners -- but can't measure some of the intangibles, such as the confidence he gave to the young St. Louis starters. Molina's offense numbers are similar to last year, when he finished fourth in voting, so I wouldn't be surprised if he jumps up to second this season.
First base: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks (.302/.401/.553, 36 HR, 124 RBI, 7.1 WAR)
Goldschmidt or Joey Votto? It's not quite as simple as Goldschmidt's 51-RBI advantage as both put up similar numbers otherwise, with Votto having the edge in on-base percentage (.436) and Goldschmidt in power (36 home runs to 24). Both were extremely durable -- Goldschmidt has missed two games, Votto zero -- and solid defenders. The one big difference is an advanced metric called Win Probability Added, a category Goldschmidt led all NL position players in, thanks in part to his .350 average in high-leverage situations and nine home runs in late and close situations (second-most in the majors to Chris Davis). I'm confident Goldschmidt is the right choice here.
Second base: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals (.320/.394/.484, 11 HR, 78 RBI, 6.7 WAR)
An easy choice as Carpenter leads the NL in runs, hits and doubles while ranking in the top 10 in numerous other categories. I'm guessing Molina garners more MVP support, but Carpenter is just as worthy to finish in the top five.
Third base: David Wright, Mets (.308/.393/.516, 18 HR, 57 RBI, 5.8 WAR)
Pedro Alvarez leads the NL with 36 home runs and has knocked in 100 but a .233 average and sub-.300 OBP means he created a ton of outs to generate those runs. Ryan Zimmerman waited too long to start hitting. Chris Johnson hit .321 for the Braves. None were above-average defenders. So almost by default I'll go with Wright, who easily has the highest WAR even though he missed 50 games.
Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons, Braves (.244/.292/.390, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 6.5 WAR)
I've been raving about Simmons all season so I can't change now. Troy Tulowitzki was great once again and relatively healthy (125 games), although he hit 61 points higher at home. Hanley Ramirez was the best on a per at-bat basis but played just 86 games. Ian Desmond flew under the radar year for the Nationals. But Simmons is my guy, even with that sub-.300 OBP. His defense was that good.
Left field: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies (.302/.367/.591, 26 HR, 70 RBI, 5.1 WAR)
Starling Marte had an excellent all-around season (41 steals, great defense) for the Pirates and Matt Holliday was solid for the Cardinals. Gonzalez's season was similar to Wright's -- if he'd remained healthy, he'd be the obvious choice, but he missed 50 games. Unlike Tulo, he actually hit better on the road, so it's not a Coors-inflated season. I'll go with CarGo just barely over Marte.
Center field: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (.317/.404/.508, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 8.2 WAR)
Carlos Gomez would be an MVP candidate if he had better teammates. Shin-Soo Choo gave the Reds exactly what they needed, a leadoff hitter who got on base. But this was McCutchen's season as he often carried a mediocre Pittburgh offense and hit .339/.441/.561 in the second half, helping keep the Pirates in the division title race. He's the likely MVP winner and not a "weak" MVP, as some have speculated. His WAR is higher than the past three NL MVPs, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and Votto. He may not drive in 100 runs or score 100 (he's at 97), but it was the best all-around season in the league.
Right field: Jayson Werth, Nationals (.318/.398/.532, 25 HR, 82 RBI, 4.8 WAR)
A loaded position, and that's with Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton missing significant time. Jay Bruce, Yasiel Puig, Hunter Pence and Marlon Byrd all have their supporters (and Gerardo Parra leads in WAR). The knock against Werth, like Wright and Gonzalez, is that he missed significant time (129 games). But Bruce has a .329 OBP. Puig didn't get called up until June and Pence's monster September (11 HR, 29 RBI) came after the Giants had long been eliminated and arguably against dubious September pitching.
Starting pitchers: Clayton Kersaw, Dodgers (16-9, 1.83 ERA, 8.0 WAR); Cliff Lee, Phillies (14-8, 2.87 ERA, 7.2 WAR); Jose Fernandez, Marlins (12-6, 2.19 ERA, 6.3 WAR); Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (19-9, 2.94 ERA, 6.2 WAR); Matt Harvey, Mets (9-5, 2.27 ERA, 5.4 WAR)
Oh, Cliff Lee is still good. There were no shortage of top starters in the NL as 18 qualified starters have posted an ERA of 3.25 or under, the most since 17 did it in 1992 and 10 more than last year.
Left-handed setup guy: Luis Avilan, Braves (5-0, 1.55 ERA)
Part of Atlanta's dominant bullpen, Avilan fanned just 38 in 64 innings but allowed a .173 average and just one home run. He gets great movement on his two-seam sinking fastball, resulting in fewer K's but a lot of groundballs. Honorable mention to Pittsburgh's Justin Wilson.
Right-handed setup guy: Mark Melancon, Pirates (3-2, 1.39 ERA)
He had a couple rough outings in September, but was dominant throughout the season, first setting up Jason Grilli and then earning 16 saves when Grilli was injured.
Closer: Craig Kimbrel, Braves (4-3, 50 saves, 1.23 ERA)
He did blow four save chances and wasn't quite as statistically dominant as last season -- and still finished with 1.23 ERA and 50 saves.
Five important issues for next commish
September, 26, 2013
Sep 26
4:24
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Bud Selig has officially announced that he'll step down as commissioner in January 2015. Jerry Crasnick will assess his legacy (hey, if Bowie Kuhn made the Hall of Fame I suspect Selig will eventually as well), but here are five key issues for the next commissioner to address.
1. Instant replay and quality of umpiring
We finally get expanded replay next season, so that should help resolve some of the controversial and blown calls. It remains to be seen how effective and efficient the system will be, but it can be adjusted as necessary. Just as importantly, the new commissioner has to work to improve consistency of ball/strike calls and reduce the episodes of ump rage.
Right now, the best umps (Eric Cooper, Chad Fairchild, Phil Cuzzi) get about 90 percent of ball/strike calls correct, according to our pitch data; the worst umps (Wally Bell, Tim Welke, Kerwin Danley, Jerry Meals) are at 86 percent. That difference may not seem like a lot, but that's a spread of 10 incorrect calls per 250 pitches. Even a 90 percent correct rate means the best umps are missing about 25 to 30 ball/strike calls a game. Maybe the human eye can't do better, but MLB needs to pay its umpire better, and in particular pay minor league umpires a living wage, so you can recruit from a wider field of candidates.
2. To DH or not to DH?
This ridiculousness has gone on too long. You simply can't have one sport with two leagues playing under different rules. The answer seems to be pretty obvious: Get rid of the designated hitter. There were only four full-time DHs this year: David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, Billy Butler and Kendrys Morales. They all batted at least 500 times as a DH. Nobody else even had 300 plate appearances (including Adam Dunn, who played a lot of first base). With so few teams actually using a DH, the resolution should be pretty clear. OK, so Butler is the youngest of those four and signed through 2015. No DH starting in 2016.
3. Oakland and Tampa Bay stadium issues
Look, both organizations have shown they can compete and win in spite of their lousy ballparks and low revenue. Part of the problem is that other teams are tired of propping up the Rays and A's. "The key here is to recognize that without the revenue-sharing dollars, we wouldn't even be able to compete or do what we're doing," Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said in August. "The other owners are looking at this and saying, 'How many years is this going to be? How much money is this going to be to a failing situation?'"
Oakland's problem is more easily solved. The A's want to move to San Jose; the Giants hold territorial rights to Santa Clara County (given to them years ago by the A's). A three-quarters majority vote of all owners can return those rights to the A's, but Selig has refused to call for a vote, wanting unanimity, including the Giants. Well, of course, the Giants would vote against it. The new commish should side with the A's here and get them, literally, out of the sewage.
4. Tanking
I've written about this issue. Buster Olney addressed it the other day. The current collective bargaining agreement makes it beneficial for teams to lose -- either to get a higher draft position (and thus more money to spend in the draft) or finish with one of the 10 worst records and thus have a protected first-round pick when signing free agents. What kind of sport essentially encourages tanking for 10 or more teams?
This season, we'll likely finish with 10 teams and maybe 11 winning 90 games ... and seven to 10 losing 90 games. You don't want to read too much into one season, but it's possible we'll see more seasons like this: Contenders and non-contenders, which makes for a less interesting sport. Back in 2004, only five teams won 90 and six lost 90. That's a healthier sport.
But the draft rules tie into another problem. For the most part, the owners love the new rules and capping the amount teams can spend in the draft. Why give more money to amateurs when you can pocket some of that money instead and buy new leather seats for your private jet? The long-range issue here is obvious: You risk talented athletes choosing other sports as signing bonuses decrease. The new commissioner should find ways to get more athletes playing baseball, rather than potentially pushing them towards a different sport.
5. The schedule
Nobody likes the fact that interleague play is now a constant throughout the season, but that's unavoidable with 15 teams in each league. But the unbalanced schedule creates issues of teams competing for the same thing (a wild-card spot) while playing vastly different schedules.
My own personal pet peeve is that the season drags too long into October. Last year's World Series games in Detroit were played in brutally cold weather. Depending on which teams advance, you're often playing your most important games of the year in your worst weather. The World Series can be as much a test of ability as a test of weather fortitude. There isn't a good solution, unless your shorten the regular season or the playoffs, add some doubleheaders, or -- god forbid -- play some World Series games during the day. The weather in Detroit in the afternoon last October was quite lovely. At night? Not so much.
1. Instant replay and quality of umpiring
We finally get expanded replay next season, so that should help resolve some of the controversial and blown calls. It remains to be seen how effective and efficient the system will be, but it can be adjusted as necessary. Just as importantly, the new commissioner has to work to improve consistency of ball/strike calls and reduce the episodes of ump rage.
Right now, the best umps (Eric Cooper, Chad Fairchild, Phil Cuzzi) get about 90 percent of ball/strike calls correct, according to our pitch data; the worst umps (Wally Bell, Tim Welke, Kerwin Danley, Jerry Meals) are at 86 percent. That difference may not seem like a lot, but that's a spread of 10 incorrect calls per 250 pitches. Even a 90 percent correct rate means the best umps are missing about 25 to 30 ball/strike calls a game. Maybe the human eye can't do better, but MLB needs to pay its umpire better, and in particular pay minor league umpires a living wage, so you can recruit from a wider field of candidates.
2. To DH or not to DH?
This ridiculousness has gone on too long. You simply can't have one sport with two leagues playing under different rules. The answer seems to be pretty obvious: Get rid of the designated hitter. There were only four full-time DHs this year: David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, Billy Butler and Kendrys Morales. They all batted at least 500 times as a DH. Nobody else even had 300 plate appearances (including Adam Dunn, who played a lot of first base). With so few teams actually using a DH, the resolution should be pretty clear. OK, so Butler is the youngest of those four and signed through 2015. No DH starting in 2016.
3. Oakland and Tampa Bay stadium issues
Look, both organizations have shown they can compete and win in spite of their lousy ballparks and low revenue. Part of the problem is that other teams are tired of propping up the Rays and A's. "The key here is to recognize that without the revenue-sharing dollars, we wouldn't even be able to compete or do what we're doing," Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said in August. "The other owners are looking at this and saying, 'How many years is this going to be? How much money is this going to be to a failing situation?'"
Oakland's problem is more easily solved. The A's want to move to San Jose; the Giants hold territorial rights to Santa Clara County (given to them years ago by the A's). A three-quarters majority vote of all owners can return those rights to the A's, but Selig has refused to call for a vote, wanting unanimity, including the Giants. Well, of course, the Giants would vote against it. The new commish should side with the A's here and get them, literally, out of the sewage.
4. Tanking
I've written about this issue. Buster Olney addressed it the other day. The current collective bargaining agreement makes it beneficial for teams to lose -- either to get a higher draft position (and thus more money to spend in the draft) or finish with one of the 10 worst records and thus have a protected first-round pick when signing free agents. What kind of sport essentially encourages tanking for 10 or more teams?
This season, we'll likely finish with 10 teams and maybe 11 winning 90 games ... and seven to 10 losing 90 games. You don't want to read too much into one season, but it's possible we'll see more seasons like this: Contenders and non-contenders, which makes for a less interesting sport. Back in 2004, only five teams won 90 and six lost 90. That's a healthier sport.
But the draft rules tie into another problem. For the most part, the owners love the new rules and capping the amount teams can spend in the draft. Why give more money to amateurs when you can pocket some of that money instead and buy new leather seats for your private jet? The long-range issue here is obvious: You risk talented athletes choosing other sports as signing bonuses decrease. The new commissioner should find ways to get more athletes playing baseball, rather than potentially pushing them towards a different sport.
5. The schedule
Nobody likes the fact that interleague play is now a constant throughout the season, but that's unavoidable with 15 teams in each league. But the unbalanced schedule creates issues of teams competing for the same thing (a wild-card spot) while playing vastly different schedules.
My own personal pet peeve is that the season drags too long into October. Last year's World Series games in Detroit were played in brutally cold weather. Depending on which teams advance, you're often playing your most important games of the year in your worst weather. The World Series can be as much a test of ability as a test of weather fortitude. There isn't a good solution, unless your shorten the regular season or the playoffs, add some doubleheaders, or -- god forbid -- play some World Series games during the day. The weather in Detroit in the afternoon last October was quite lovely. At night? Not so much.
Rookie Roark keeps Nationals in hunt
September, 17, 2013
Sep 17
11:39
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
In 1980, the Phillies called up an obscure minor leaguer named Marty Bystrom in September. He wasn't a big prospect -- in fact, he'd signed as an undrafted free agent -- and had just OK numbers in Triple-A, but the Phillies needed a starter. Bystrom made five starts, threw a shutout his first outing, allowed just six runs all told, won all five games and was a huge factor as the Phillies beat out the Expos by one game to win the NL East.
Whenever a late-season call-up does something big in a playoff race, I still think of Marty Bystrom, especially since the Phillies would go on to win their first World Series title that October.
Tanner Roark isn't quite a September call-up since he pitched out of the bullpen for the Washington Nationals in August, winning four games in middle relief. He made his first major league start on Sept. 7 and beat the Marlins. He started against the Mets on Sept. 12 and won again. Against the Braves on Tuesday, he pitched the best game of his life, throwing seven scoreless innings and allowing just two hits as the Nationals won 4-0 -- scoring three runs in the eighth to break it open -- to complete the doubleheader sweep and keep alive this late-season surge.
Roark was probably even less of a prospect than Bystrom. He was part of the Cristian Guzman trade with the Rangers in 2010 -- you remember that one, right? -- but didn't rank in Baseball America's top 30 Nationals prospects before the season. He's a 26-year-old organizational player who had gone 6-17 with a 4.39 ERA for Syracuse in 2012.
But he has better stuff than you'd expect from a guy not ranked in the top 30 of a farm system not generally considered to be very deep. He's averaged 92.6 mph on his fastball in the big leagues, reaching 95. He has a curveball, slider and changeup and throws strikes. Against the Braves, he threw 67 of 101 pitches for strikes, relying heavily on his fastball: 63 fastballs, 71 percent for strikes. Still, back in April at Syracuse he got pounded in his third outing of the season, giving up 12 hits and 10 runs. He was demoted to the bullpen, where he spent the next two months.
Now he's 7-0 with a 1.08 ERA in the major leagues. This is baseball.
"He really put it together this year, focus-wise, and was prepared for the game and not giving in at all this year," Tony Beasley, his Triple-A manager, told MLB.com last week. "It was just a different mindset to him. He was really locked in with his outings. He didn't shy away from contact. He had no fear of hitters. It was just like he was going to get the job done every time he went out there. There was a different kind of confidence behind him, and it resulted in success."
While Roark has provided a huge lift, Nationals fans have to be wondering: Where has this team been all season? Is this run coming too late? The Reds pummeled the Astros, so the Nats remain 4.5 games behind Cincinnati and 6 behind Pittsburgh. If they go 9-2 over their final 11 games, they need the Reds to go 4-6 over the final 10 just to force a tie. A season-ending road trip to St. Louis and Arizona won't be easy.
We can't write the Nationals off just yet, just like they didn't write off Roark. But I think their run is going to fall a couple games short.
Umm, yeah, here come the Nationals
September, 17, 2013
Sep 17
5:17
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Quick thoughts on the Nationals' ninth-inning 6-5 comeback win over Craig Kimbrel and the Braves in the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader ...
- How rare of a blow-up was it for Craig Kimbrel? It was the first time he'd allowed three runs in game in his career and just the third time in two seasons he's allowed more than one run. He'd walked two batters in a game just three times previously in 2013, and in one of those appearances one of the walks was intentional.
- So great job by Adam LaRoche to start the inning by working the walk on the 3-2 fastball. A little surprising that Kimbrel didn't go to the slider there. Lefties were hitting .068 against the slider -- with 33 strikeouts and no walks in 44 plate appearances ending with that pitch. Basically, when Kimbrel gets to two strikes, the slider is unhittable.
- From there, an infield single, another walk, an RBI groundout and the rare error from Andrelton Simmons that allowed the winning runs to score.
- Where is Jayson Werth on your MVP ballot? He had an RBI double off Mike Minor in the Nationals' three-run first inning and is hitting .322/.398/.536 with 23 home runs and 74 RBIs. Certainly he's been a huge key in keeping the Nationals from disintegrating with a monster second half in which he's hit .352 with 41 RBIs in 52 games. Still, he missed all but one game in May, and those 30 missing games count against him. He's been Washington's most valuable position player, but I'm not sure he'd crack my top-10 MVP ballot due to the injury.
- The Nationals' chances to catch the Reds are still pretty slim, sitting 4½ games back heading into Tuesday night's games. Put it this way: If Washington goes 10-2 in its final 12 games, it needs Cincinnati to go 5-6 over its final 11 to match the Reds at 90 wins. Now, that's possible; the Reds do play the Pirates in six of those games, but they also get the Astros twice more and the Mets three times next week. The Nationals face the Marlins after the Braves but finish up with a six-game road trip to St. Louis and Arizona. The Cardinals will still be fighting for the division title, although Arizona may be thinking about golf by then. Our playoff odds from coolstandings.com gives the Nationals a 4 percent chance of making it. Things will look a lot more interesting after Tuesday night, however, if Washington wins again and Cincinnati loses.
- What's been the big turnaround for the Nats? On Aug. 19 they were 60-64. Since then they've gone 20-6. Well, the schedule has been key. Twenty-two of those 26 games have come against sub-.500 teams (thank you, NL East). They've hit .293/.359/.479 over those 26 games. Thank you, bad pitching. OK, Denard Span and Ryan Zimmerman finally got going.
- Washington starts rookie Tanner Roark in the nightcap against Freddy Garcia -- yes, that Freddy Garcia -- so it's a good opportunity for another win since Freddy Garcia is Freddy Garcia. Roark is making his third start, but he's kind of been a good-luck charm of late with a 6-0 record. I'm guessing Kimbrel is unavailable, and maybe Luis Avilan as well. Kimbrel threw 27 pitches, Avilan 13, and there's little incentive for Fredi Gonzalez to burn through his best relievers with division all but clinched.
- The Reds start Mike Leake in Houston against Jordan Lyles. The Nats' chances may be slim, but at least they've given their fans a reason to watch that out-of-town scoreboard.
Ten predictions for the stretch run
August, 25, 2013
Aug 25
11:48
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
When Alex Rodriguez got caught off second base on Ichiro Suzuki's line drive back to the pitcher in the 10th inning, I was sure the Tampa Bay Rays would win.
When Joba Chamberlain walked Jose Molina leading off the bottom of the 10th, I was sure the Rays would win.
It just seemed like one of those classic Tampa Bay games -- Joe Maddon pulls the right moves -- like not pinch hitting for Molina -- and the Rays scratch out the victory.
But the New York Yankees also know how to scratch, and Boone Logan got a double play, Alfonso Soriano doubled and stole third (stole third!) and scored on a sac fly and Mariano Rivera went 1-2-3 and the Yankees managed to avoid a sweep.
Soriano gave one of the great quotes of the year about his surprise, one-out steal, which he swiped even while stumbling: "Being the DH, my leg is not loose 100 percent. My mind is 100 percent but legs are not."
A lot of legs aren't 100 percent this time of year, making the final stretch run so exciting: Which teams and players will wobble to the finish line, and which will sprint across it? Here are some predictions for the final five weeks:
1. The Yankees finish two wins short of the wild card. They've made it interesting, which is a remarkable feat, but I'm still having trouble seeing them passing three teams to win a wild-card spot. On the other hand, if they stay in it, their final four series are against the Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Rays and Houston Astros, and three of those teams will be playing out the string. Can you imagine the uproar if the Yankees make it and then Rodriguez plays in the postseason and leads the Yankees to the World Series title and Bud Selig has to hand him the World Series MVP trophy?
2. The Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers will finish with their respective league's best record. It's a great battle for best overall record in both leagues, and I'll go with the Braves and Tigers to lock up home-field advantage, but what's the value in that? Let's check the past 10 seasons:
2012: Yankees (lost ALCS); Washington Nationals (lost NLDS)
2011: Yankees (lost ALDS); Philadelphia Phillies (lost NLDS)
2010: Rays (lost ALDS); Phillies (lost NLCS)
2009: Yankees (won World Series); Los Angeles Dodgers (lost NLCS)
2008: Los Angeles Angels (lost ALDS); Chicago Cubs (lost NLDS)
2007: Boston Red Sox (won World Series)/Cleveland Indians (lost ALCS); Arizona Diamondbacks (lost NLCS)
2006: Yankees (lost ALDS); New York Mets (lost NLCS)
2005: Chicago White Sox (won World Series); Cardinals (lost NLCS)
2004: Yankees (lost ALCS); St. Louis Cardinals (lost World Series)
2003: Yankees (lost World Series); Braves (lost NLDS)
So, five of 20 reached the World Series, and two won. Basically, home-field advantage doesn't mean anything. Going all-out to avoid the wild-card game makes sense, of course, but the playoffs are too much of a crapshoot to worry much about home-field advantage.
3. One team currently out of the playoffs will make it. My pick: the Indians.
OK, I actually have no idea. It could be the Baltimore Orioles or the Yankees. But we have about 32 games remaining, and checking the similar point in the schedule reveals we should see at least one team currently out of the playoff picture climb its way in. The NL seems pretty locked in with the Diamondbacks now seven games behind the Cincinnati Reds for the second wild card, although recent history (see list below) suggests even that isn't an impossible number.
So it's more likely to be an AL team, and nobody seems to be talking about the Indians, who are just 1½ behind the Oakland A's for the second wild card. They do have a tough road trip this week to Atlanta and Detroit and then a home series against Baltimore, but if they survive those nine games, their final seven series are against the Mets, Kansas City Royals, White Sox, Royals, Astros, White Sox and Minnesota Twins.
Question is: Do they catch the A's? Or do the A's catch the Texas Rangers for the AL West title and the Indians then catch the Rangers for the wild card?
2012 -- AL, one of five (Tigers came back from three behind White Sox); NL, none
2011 -- AL, one of four (Rays 8½ games from behind Red Sox); NL, one of four (Cardinals 9½ games from behind Braves)
2010 -- AL, none; NL, one of four (Giants from six behind the San Diego Padres)
2009 -- AL, one of four (Twins came from 4½ games behind Tigers); NL, none (Colorado Rockies were tied with the Giants)
2008 -- AL, none; NL, two of four (Phillies were a half-game behind the Mets, Dodgers from three games behind the Diamondbacks)
4. Max Scherzer will finish 23-1. I know -- and I know you know -- that win-loss records for starting pitchers are overrated and dependent, to a certain extent, on run support. Still, 23-1 would be pretty freakin' awesome, no matter how much you dislike pitcher wins. Scherzer is currently 19-1, which breaks the all-time single-season winning percentage currently held by Roy Face, who went 18-1 as a relief pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1959. The best winning percentage for a pitcher who won at least 20 games is Ron Guidry's .893 mark (25-3 record) with the Yankees in 1978.
Scherzer, of course, has received great run support, but he's also been amazingly consistent, never allowing more than five runs and allowing four or five runs just five times in 26 starts. That doesn't mean there hasn't been some good fortune; he's 3-1 in those five starts and is one of just three starters with three wins in such games (Erasmo Ramirez is 3-0 and Tommy Milone is 3-5). Patrick Corbin and Mat Latos, both 2-1, are the only others with at least two decisions who don't have a losing record.
Scherzer should get six more starts. Assuming the Tigers stick to a five-man rotation, giving Scherzer four or five days between starts, his remaining starts should line up like this with predictions:
Thursday, Aug. 29: vs. A's (win)
Tuesday, Sept. 3: at Red Sox (no-decision)
Monday, Sept. 9: at White Sox (win)
Sunday, Sept. 15: vs. Royals (win)
Friday, Sept. 20: vs. White Sox (win)
Wednesday, Sept 25: at Twins (no-decision)
That final start could also be pushed to Friday, Sept. 27, putting Scherzer on track to start the first game of the postseason.
5. Miguel Cabrera versus Mike Trout: Here we go again. Well, sort of. In reality, this debate is stuck in three feet of mud and going nowhere. While Trout now leads Cabrera in both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs wins above replacemnet (WAR), Trout has no chance to win the AL MVP Award. This season would actually be a more interesting debate than last, when Trout was clearly the better -- and more valuable -- all-around player. The two major things that make this argument a nonstarter for voters: (A) The Angels haven't even sniffed the playoff races and (B) Cabrera is hitting .422 with an .867 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position.
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Brad Mangin/MLB/Getty ImagesIf Andrew McCutchen sizzles down the stretch, there's hardware that should have his name on it.
7. Nobody will blame a mattress if they miss the playoffs. No crying in baseball, unless your team blows a nine-game lead in September.
8. Jon Lester leads the Red Sox to the AL East title. Clay Buchholz didn't pitch well in a rehab assignment on Sunday, throwing 38 pitches and walking three batters while recording just two outs. While Buchholz's return would bolster Boston's division title hopes if he pitches like he did the first two months -- over which he went 9-0 -- Lester has been doing his best pitching since before Boston's infamous September 2011 collapse. He's 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break, having allowed more than three runs only once and just three home runs. He's been throwing about nine more fastballs per start and fewer cutters, which is interesting because many analysts have suggested he fell in love with the cutter too much the past two seasons.
Anyway Red Sox win the East, Rays win the wild card.
9. Tigers versus Dodgers in World Series. It the Year of Miggy. It's the Year of Kershaw. Maybe it's World Series destiny.
10. The World Series will go seven games. Kershaw versus Scherzer? Tie game in the ninth, Kershaw still pitching, Cabrera up
Stephen Strasburg not yet an ace
August, 22, 2013
Aug 22
11:48
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
It's been a much quieter year for Stephen Strasburg in his first season following The Shutdown, although not one without news and not one without questions.
While the Nationals have been a colossal dud, Strasburg has pitched at a level similar to 2012. You can view that as a positive, because it's a very high level of performance. Or you can view it as a minor disappointment if your expectations were that Strasburg would win the Cy Young Award and rise to a new plane of dominance.
Comparison time!
2012: 28 GS, 159.1 IP, 3.16 ERA, 3.50 R/9, .230 AVG, .649 OPS
2013: 25 GS, 156.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 3.58 R/9, .210 AVG, .600 OPS
[+] Enlarge

David Banks/Getty ImagesWill Stephen Strasburg be able to get past durability questions?
Strasburg's strikeout rate -- while still excellent -- also has dropped a bit, from 30 percent to 26 percent, while his walk rate has remained essentially unchanged. Some of that decline in strikeouts could be attributed to a desire to be more efficient in his pitch counts and to produce more ground balls; he has been slightly more efficient (15.6 pitches per inning versus 16.4) and he is getting more grounders, so I wouldn't be too alarmed about the strikeout rate, especially since it does rank ninth among qualified starters -- just ahead of Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez.
Despite all those positives, I can't classify Strasburg as an ace just yet, although we all have various definitions of what that means. The goal for starters is to prevent runs and pitch deep into games. He ranks 22nd among MLB starters in ERA and lower if you look at runs per nine innings since he's allowed nine unearned runs. He's also just 41st in innings pitched -- 42 innings fewer than Kershaw, not that any pitcher compares favorably to Kershaw these days. He's had his bumps, missing two weeks with a strained forearm in June, and then the weird start five days ago when he plunked Justin Upton in the first inning -- likely as retaliation for the Braves' throwing at Bryce Harper -- but then threw three wild pitches in the second and got ejected after throwing behind Andrelton Simmons.
Strasburg had another bump Thursday when he took a 4-1 lead into the ninth against the Cubs, looking for his second career complete game, but he was unable to finish it off, as the Cubs scored three runs and knocked him out when Donnie Murphy hit a game-tying homer with two outs. I liked Davey Johnson's decision to leave him in the game that long, even if it didn't work out (the Nationals did eventually win 5-4 in 13 innings).
There are a couple of things Strasburg can improve on. Over the past two seasons, he's allowed a .206 average with the bases empty, .242 with runners on base. A lot of power pitchers allow a higher average with men on base -- Yu Darvish is 39 points worse, David Price is 25 points worse, for example -- but guys such as Kershaw and Hernandez don't see much if any drop-off.
Most importantly, however, remains the command of his fastball against left-handed batters.
Let me show you a couple of heat maps. First, his batting average allowed to left-handed batters off his fastball in 2013:
ESPN Stats & InformationStrasburg's batting average allowed in various zones against left-handed batters.As you can see, he's pretty effective when he gets the fastball inside.
Now, a second heat map, this one of his fastball location against left-handed batters:
ESPN Stats & InformationStrasburg prefers to work the outside edge of the plate with his fastball.So, he is more effective pitching inside ... but more often pitches to the middle or outside part of the plate. I'll let the experts decide whether this is an issue of command or mechanics, but as good as Strasburg's breaking stuff is, you still have to use the fastball to set up those pitches. Eight of the 15 home runs he's allowed have been off fastballs to left-handers -- in fact, all eight of the home runs he's allowed to lefties. For the season, in plate appearances ending with a fastball, lefties have struck out 19 times but have drawn 23 walks and are slugging .452.
Look, these aren't Joe Blanton numbers or anything here. We're nitpicking over a very good pitcher. Questions about his durability still exist -- will he get to 200 innings this season? -- and he should eventually get better at pitching to both sides of the plate. Strasburg remains a dynamic young talent, but you do wonder whether he's been passed up by Matt Harvey and even Jose Fernandez.
Jayson Werth could win batting title
August, 20, 2013
Aug 20
7:58
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
You may not realize this about Jayson Werth since he's not listed among the National League batting leaders, but that will change in a few days. Entering Tuesday, Chris Johnson of the Braves was hitting .335, Yadier Molina .334 and Michael Cuddyer .323.
Werth was hitting .330 but was nine plate appearances short of qualifying (you need 3.1 PAs per team game played). Once Werth qualifies it should be a fun race down the stretch ... if you're still into batting titles (or, more accurately, the batting average title).
Werth is hitting .408 since the All-Star break, best in the majors, and is second to Miguel Cabrera in OPS since the break. The Nationals are having a disastrous year, but Werth has been one of the few bright spots.
Werth was hitting .330 but was nine plate appearances short of qualifying (you need 3.1 PAs per team game played). Once Werth qualifies it should be a fun race down the stretch ... if you're still into batting titles (or, more accurately, the batting average title).
Werth is hitting .408 since the All-Star break, best in the majors, and is second to Miguel Cabrera in OPS since the break. The Nationals are having a disastrous year, but Werth has been one of the few bright spots.
Young talent the best we've had in years
August, 20, 2013
Aug 20
5:18
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
I just wrote about the National League Rookie of the Year debate and one of the fun things about the players involved is their ages -- Yasiel Puig is 22, Jose Fernandez just turned 21, Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran are 22. These guys are already very good and still very young.
Last week, Joe Posnanski wrote about all the young talent in the majors today and pointed out we could end up with 13 or 14 players in their age 23-or-younger season who could end up with 3.0 WAR or higher. The "record" for this category, according to Posnanski (I assume he was searching on Baseball-Reference.com) was 1978, when 14 players did it. The catch: Joe was writing about position players only.
Topping the list would be Mike Trout, with Manny Machado, Andrelton Simmons, Jean Segura, Freddie Freeman, Puig and Nolan Arenado already above the 3.0 mark. Jason Heyward is at 2.9 and on a hot streak. Eric Hosmer is at 2.7 WAR. That's nine guys who should get there with Anthony Rizzo, Brett Lawrie, Salvador Perez, Jose Iglesias and Bryce Harper between 1.9 and 2.1 WAR. Wil Myers has 1.7 WAR in about two months of play. This list doesn't even include Giancarlo Stanton, still just 23, but having a disappointing season with 1.3 WAR after leading the National League in slugging percentage last season.
So that's a lot of young talent without even talking about the pitchers.
Anyway, Joe didn't mention all the 1978 guys in his piece, so I thought it would be interesting to check out that list and see what happened the rest of their careers. Indulge me as I revisit the players of my youth, when I first started watching baseball and kept baseball cards in shoe boxes, wrapped in rubber bands.
Jack Clark: 5.9 (52.9 career WAR)
Clark finished fifth in the 1978 NL MVP vote and became one of the best hitters of the '80s (sixth in OPS+ for the decade behind Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Pedro Guerrero and Darryl Strawberry). He couldn't stay healthy, however -- during his age 27-to-30 peak years he averaged just 96 games per season. Couldn't keep his mouth shut either. Still can't keep his mouth shut.
Willie Randolph 5.8 (65.6)
Underrated player due to his defense and walks; a borderline Hall of Fame candidate by his career WAR total but fell off the ballot after one year and would appear an unlikely Veterans Committee candidate.
Jason Thompson 5.6 (24.8)
The 23-year-old first baseman for the Tigers hit .287 with 26 home runs and walks and made his second All-Star team. Looked like he'd be a big star for a long time, but it didn't happen. After a slow start in 1980, the Tigers dumped him to the Angels for Al Cowens, and then after hitting .317/.439/.526 the rest of the season for the Angels, he was traded to the Pirates for Ed Ott and Mickey Mahler -- 29-year-old part-time catcher and nobody pitcher. The Pirates were then supposed to trade Thompson to the Yankees -- basically for $500,000 in cash -- but the commissioner vetoed that trade so he was stuck with Pittsburgh. Anyway, not sure why nobody wanted him. Defense? Bad breath? Not sure the story there. Made the All-Star team in 1982 but was done by age 31.
Ellis Valentine 5.5 (16.9)
Hit .289/.330/.489, 25 home runs, 35 doubles, won a Gold Glove thanks to his cannon arm. Part of the young Expos outfield with Andre Dawson and Warren Cromartie. Hit in the face by a pitch on May 30, 1980. They say he was never the same again ... except after returning in July he hit .331 the rest of the season. Injuries and drug and alcohol problems cut his career short after that, although he straightened himself out after his retirement from baseball.
Robin Yount: 5.0 (77.1)
Was just 22, but already in his fifth season in the majors after starting for Milwaukee at age 18. Would of course go on to win two MVP Awards and get elected to the Hall of Fame. Now, looking at his season you probably wouldn't have projected him as a Hall of Famer -- he hit .293 with nine home runs and 147 hits in 123 games. But a 22-year-old with ability can sometimes take a big leap forward and Young did that in 1980.
Chet Lemon 4.9 (55.3)
A superb defender in center, although he never won a Gold Glove Award. He hit .304/.386/.482 with the White Sox from 1978 to 1981, but after a trade to the Tigers for Steve Kemp never hit .300 again, even though he was just 27 at the time of the trade. He ranks eighth among position players in WAR during his 1977-1984 peak. Pretty underrated player.
Andre Dawson 4.7 (64.4)
In his second season, hit .253/.299/.442, but with 25 home runs, 28 steals and good defense. Here's a question: At that moment in time, would you rather have had Dawson or Valentine? Valentine had the better season and both were 23, but Dawson was faster and more athletic. Neither walked much, although Dawson struck out a lot more. I think it would have been a tough call.
Eddie Murray 4.3 (68.2)
Hit .283 with 27 home runs and 70 walks at age 22, good enough to finish eighth in the AL MVP vote.
Lou Whitaker: 3.8 (74.8)
The AL Rookie of the Year in 1978, he's a slam-dunk Hall of Famer if you go strictly by WAR. Hit just 12 home runs his first four seasons but eventually topped 20 four times. Effective enough into his late 30s that even in his final year he posted an .890 OPS in a platoon role with the Tigers.
Terry Puhl: 3.7 (28.4)
He was just 21 and hit .289 for the Astros with 32 steals, a few walks and was solid defensively. Never developed too much beyond that -- hitting home runs in the Astrodome was near impossible in those days anyways -- but he was a prototypical Astros outfielder of that period with good speed and the ability to hit for average.
Lee Mazzilli: 3.3 (15.4)
A pretty good player from 1978 to 1980, when he was the toast of a bad Mets franchise -- hailing from Brooklyn made him even more popular with the Mets' faithful. Hit a big home run in the 1979 All-Star Game. Started suffering back and elbow injuries and was never the same, although the Mets squeezed Ron Darling and Walt Terrell from the Rangers in a steal of a deal.
Steve Kemp: 3.3 (19.5)
Good hitter whose career was eventually derailed by injuries. The 1978 Tigers had Thompson, Whitaker and Kemp, plus 20-year-old Alan Trammell, 22-year-old Lance Parrish and 23-year-old Jack Morris. They won 86 games. It took them only six years from there to win a World Series.
Ozzie Smith 3.2 (76.5)
He hit .258 and swiped 40 bases to finish second in the NL Rookie of the Year vote to Bob Horner (who went straight from Arizona State to the majors). Ozzie's bat stalled for his next three years in San Diego before a trade to St. Louis -- and turf -- helped him become respectable at the plate.
Garry Templeton 3.0 (27.7)
Most career hits through age-24 season since 1970: Yount, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Cesar Cedeno, Edgar Renteria, Roberto Alomar, Miguel Cabrera, Templeton.
So that's the 14. It doesn't even include Trammell (2.8 WAR), Paul Molitor (2.7) or Carney Lansford (2.6).
You still hear a lot that players are rushed to the majors these days. There's no evidence this is actually true. In 1978, there were 21 players who were 23 or younger and batted at least 500 times and 27 who batted at least 300. In 2012, those figures were 14 and 20. In 1978, 28 pitchers 23 or younger reached 100 innings compared to 12 last year. There are reasons for this -- more guys go to college now (1978 was right before the boom in college baseball), some guys are now held back in the minors to save on service time, innings are limited and so on. But it's also because the talent level is a little higher than it was 35 years ago; there's less room for a 21-year-old kid to play regularly these days.
Not all these kids today will turn into stars ... but four of those 14 from 1978 did turn into Hall of Famers.
Last week, Joe Posnanski wrote about all the young talent in the majors today and pointed out we could end up with 13 or 14 players in their age 23-or-younger season who could end up with 3.0 WAR or higher. The "record" for this category, according to Posnanski (I assume he was searching on Baseball-Reference.com) was 1978, when 14 players did it. The catch: Joe was writing about position players only.
Topping the list would be Mike Trout, with Manny Machado, Andrelton Simmons, Jean Segura, Freddie Freeman, Puig and Nolan Arenado already above the 3.0 mark. Jason Heyward is at 2.9 and on a hot streak. Eric Hosmer is at 2.7 WAR. That's nine guys who should get there with Anthony Rizzo, Brett Lawrie, Salvador Perez, Jose Iglesias and Bryce Harper between 1.9 and 2.1 WAR. Wil Myers has 1.7 WAR in about two months of play. This list doesn't even include Giancarlo Stanton, still just 23, but having a disappointing season with 1.3 WAR after leading the National League in slugging percentage last season.
So that's a lot of young talent without even talking about the pitchers.
Anyway, Joe didn't mention all the 1978 guys in his piece, so I thought it would be interesting to check out that list and see what happened the rest of their careers. Indulge me as I revisit the players of my youth, when I first started watching baseball and kept baseball cards in shoe boxes, wrapped in rubber bands.
Jack Clark: 5.9 (52.9 career WAR)
Clark finished fifth in the 1978 NL MVP vote and became one of the best hitters of the '80s (sixth in OPS+ for the decade behind Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Pedro Guerrero and Darryl Strawberry). He couldn't stay healthy, however -- during his age 27-to-30 peak years he averaged just 96 games per season. Couldn't keep his mouth shut either. Still can't keep his mouth shut.
Willie Randolph 5.8 (65.6)
Underrated player due to his defense and walks; a borderline Hall of Fame candidate by his career WAR total but fell off the ballot after one year and would appear an unlikely Veterans Committee candidate.
Jason Thompson 5.6 (24.8)
The 23-year-old first baseman for the Tigers hit .287 with 26 home runs and walks and made his second All-Star team. Looked like he'd be a big star for a long time, but it didn't happen. After a slow start in 1980, the Tigers dumped him to the Angels for Al Cowens, and then after hitting .317/.439/.526 the rest of the season for the Angels, he was traded to the Pirates for Ed Ott and Mickey Mahler -- 29-year-old part-time catcher and nobody pitcher. The Pirates were then supposed to trade Thompson to the Yankees -- basically for $500,000 in cash -- but the commissioner vetoed that trade so he was stuck with Pittsburgh. Anyway, not sure why nobody wanted him. Defense? Bad breath? Not sure the story there. Made the All-Star team in 1982 but was done by age 31.
Ellis Valentine 5.5 (16.9)
Hit .289/.330/.489, 25 home runs, 35 doubles, won a Gold Glove thanks to his cannon arm. Part of the young Expos outfield with Andre Dawson and Warren Cromartie. Hit in the face by a pitch on May 30, 1980. They say he was never the same again ... except after returning in July he hit .331 the rest of the season. Injuries and drug and alcohol problems cut his career short after that, although he straightened himself out after his retirement from baseball.
Robin Yount: 5.0 (77.1)
Was just 22, but already in his fifth season in the majors after starting for Milwaukee at age 18. Would of course go on to win two MVP Awards and get elected to the Hall of Fame. Now, looking at his season you probably wouldn't have projected him as a Hall of Famer -- he hit .293 with nine home runs and 147 hits in 123 games. But a 22-year-old with ability can sometimes take a big leap forward and Young did that in 1980.
Chet Lemon 4.9 (55.3)
A superb defender in center, although he never won a Gold Glove Award. He hit .304/.386/.482 with the White Sox from 1978 to 1981, but after a trade to the Tigers for Steve Kemp never hit .300 again, even though he was just 27 at the time of the trade. He ranks eighth among position players in WAR during his 1977-1984 peak. Pretty underrated player.
Andre Dawson 4.7 (64.4)
In his second season, hit .253/.299/.442, but with 25 home runs, 28 steals and good defense. Here's a question: At that moment in time, would you rather have had Dawson or Valentine? Valentine had the better season and both were 23, but Dawson was faster and more athletic. Neither walked much, although Dawson struck out a lot more. I think it would have been a tough call.
Eddie Murray 4.3 (68.2)
Hit .283 with 27 home runs and 70 walks at age 22, good enough to finish eighth in the AL MVP vote.
Lou Whitaker: 3.8 (74.8)
The AL Rookie of the Year in 1978, he's a slam-dunk Hall of Famer if you go strictly by WAR. Hit just 12 home runs his first four seasons but eventually topped 20 four times. Effective enough into his late 30s that even in his final year he posted an .890 OPS in a platoon role with the Tigers.
Terry Puhl: 3.7 (28.4)
He was just 21 and hit .289 for the Astros with 32 steals, a few walks and was solid defensively. Never developed too much beyond that -- hitting home runs in the Astrodome was near impossible in those days anyways -- but he was a prototypical Astros outfielder of that period with good speed and the ability to hit for average.
Lee Mazzilli: 3.3 (15.4)
A pretty good player from 1978 to 1980, when he was the toast of a bad Mets franchise -- hailing from Brooklyn made him even more popular with the Mets' faithful. Hit a big home run in the 1979 All-Star Game. Started suffering back and elbow injuries and was never the same, although the Mets squeezed Ron Darling and Walt Terrell from the Rangers in a steal of a deal.
Steve Kemp: 3.3 (19.5)
Good hitter whose career was eventually derailed by injuries. The 1978 Tigers had Thompson, Whitaker and Kemp, plus 20-year-old Alan Trammell, 22-year-old Lance Parrish and 23-year-old Jack Morris. They won 86 games. It took them only six years from there to win a World Series.
Ozzie Smith 3.2 (76.5)
He hit .258 and swiped 40 bases to finish second in the NL Rookie of the Year vote to Bob Horner (who went straight from Arizona State to the majors). Ozzie's bat stalled for his next three years in San Diego before a trade to St. Louis -- and turf -- helped him become respectable at the plate.
Garry Templeton 3.0 (27.7)
Most career hits through age-24 season since 1970: Yount, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Cesar Cedeno, Edgar Renteria, Roberto Alomar, Miguel Cabrera, Templeton.
So that's the 14. It doesn't even include Trammell (2.8 WAR), Paul Molitor (2.7) or Carney Lansford (2.6).
You still hear a lot that players are rushed to the majors these days. There's no evidence this is actually true. In 1978, there were 21 players who were 23 or younger and batted at least 500 times and 27 who batted at least 300. In 2012, those figures were 14 and 20. In 1978, 28 pitchers 23 or younger reached 100 innings compared to 12 last year. There are reasons for this -- more guys go to college now (1978 was right before the boom in college baseball), some guys are now held back in the minors to save on service time, innings are limited and so on. But it's also because the talent level is a little higher than it was 35 years ago; there's less room for a 21-year-old kid to play regularly these days.
Not all these kids today will turn into stars ... but four of those 14 from 1978 did turn into Hall of Famers.
Podcast: 2016 World Series preview!
August, 16, 2013
Aug 16
11:08
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Eric and myself conclude a fun week of guest-hosting on the Baseball Tonight podcast by discussing the Pirates-Cardinals series, the Tigers' rotation, the playoff races, instant replay and, unfortunately, Alex Rodriguez. Plus our 2016 World Series pick!
SweetSpot TV: Biggest disappointments
August, 15, 2013
Aug 15
10:00
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
It's another edition of SweetSpot TV!
Eric and I discuss four pairs of teammates who have been big disappointments.
I realize now we didn't talk about the Blue Jays -- and we should have, considering they were viewed as potential World Series favorites by many heading into the season. I guess their disappointing duo would lead with Josh Johnson (2-8, 6.20 ERA); he could be joined by R.A. Dickey (9-11, 4.46 ERA) or Melky Cabrera (.279, three home runs) or Ricky Romero (stuck in the minors, unable to throw strikes). The Jays have had injuries but they've also had plenty of bad performances.
Which team has been most disappointing? I still go with the Nationals, but you can make a good case for the Blue Jays, Angels, Phillies or the defending champion Giants. What do you think?
Eric Karabell and myself fill in for Buster Olney on today's Baseball Tonight podcast and we attempt to discuss an entire season in 35 minutes! OK, maybe not the entire season, but we do talk about the red-hot Dodgers and our power rankings, the weird Jack Clark accusation about Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Clayton Kershaw, Wil Myers and James Shields, the playoff races, the season's big disappointment and more!
Comeback trio are post-break HR leaders
August, 11, 2013
Aug 11
1:41
AM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
Who has the most home runs since the All-Star break? After Saturday night’s action, three guys were tied with seven apiece: Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays, Jayson Werth of the Nationals and Justin Morneau of the Twins. In other words, neither of the league leaders (Chris Davis and Paul Goldschmidt), and a couple of guys you might well have already left for dead if you weren’t a die-hard fan of the also-ran Nats or still-buried Twinkies. And, speaking as a fan, I’m glad to see all three of them getting back in the swing of things, not least because all three of them are making comebacks against injuries and expectations.
Bautista’s “comeback” might seem like a bit of a stretch, in that he has 27 home runs this season. You might say that his skills never did go away. It’s just that he did, after losing almost half of his 2012 campaign to a wrist injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. You’d be forgiven for thinking everything has been great for him because he did come out of the gate pretty hot to make a quick case that he would still be one of baseball’s best sluggers.
However, Bautista is coming off a rough pair of months, and he very clearly has not been the same guy: He’s hitting more grounders while putting more balls in play, and his rate of home runs per fly ball has come down to 15.9 percent, its lowest mark since 2009. Maybe some of that is a matter of shaking some post-surgical rust off the wrist, and maybe some of it is Father Time taking his cut. If you enjoyed watching Bautista bash 97 home runs in 2010-11, you can take his postbreak run as a positive indicator that maybe he really is back.
You don’t have to be that much of an acid-washed skeptic to suspect that Werth’s recent bit of sluggery probably makes for the shortest comeback. Werth has been demonized ever since he took the Nationals’ offer of ludicrous amounts of cash before the 2011 season, but why blame him for that? There isn’t one of us who wouldn’t have taken a nine-figure offer.
Werth’s checkered health history was an even bigger red flag than his already being beyond age 30 at the time the Nats handed him $126 million, and injuries have certainly undermined his seasons in D.C. His first season, 2011, was sapped by getting hit by pitches in three straight games in early June; whatever Werth’s reputation for fragility, he played through it, but his midseason clip of .175/.307/.277 until his bat came around at the end of July suggests he was far from his best. A fractured wrist in 2012 cost him almost three months, and this season, a hamstring strain took him out for a month.
Werth’s second-half run is quietly helping him produce his best season yet for the Nationals. In his age-34 season, he’s perhaps as healthy as he’s ever been as a National, and his seven postbreak homers are providing a small reminder of one of the reasons GM Mike Rizzo gave him the big bucks. This latest streak provides a small suggestion that maybe there are a few chapters left to write in his already unusual career.
But the guy you really have to feel for is Morneau, the former AL MVP and one of the two towers the Twins were supposed to be able to build an offense around. But ever since his best season was cut short in 2010 by a concussion, his career has not been the same, as he struggled through an injury-abbreviated 2011 and a 2012 season best celebrated for his ability to play daily once more than for his feats at the plate, with just a .773 OPS. He’s been able to keep that up this season, but his bat’s gotten worse.
I’m not going to pretend that Morneau is going to put the Twins back in the headlines any time soon. Nor is Morneau really hitting all that well since the break: .237/.290/.505 with those seven homers and very little else, and they’re being hit against the Mariners, White Sox and Astros. But if anyone playing today deserved a few weeks to enjoy at least an echo of what he once had going for him as one of the game’s top sluggers, I’d agree it ought to be Morneau. This might not be a comeback, but at least it’s a reminder of what was. More power to him.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Bautista’s “comeback” might seem like a bit of a stretch, in that he has 27 home runs this season. You might say that his skills never did go away. It’s just that he did, after losing almost half of his 2012 campaign to a wrist injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. You’d be forgiven for thinking everything has been great for him because he did come out of the gate pretty hot to make a quick case that he would still be one of baseball’s best sluggers.
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AP Photo/Nam Y. HuhJustin Morneau's recent power burst is a reminder of better days for the Twins slugger.
However, Bautista is coming off a rough pair of months, and he very clearly has not been the same guy: He’s hitting more grounders while putting more balls in play, and his rate of home runs per fly ball has come down to 15.9 percent, its lowest mark since 2009. Maybe some of that is a matter of shaking some post-surgical rust off the wrist, and maybe some of it is Father Time taking his cut. If you enjoyed watching Bautista bash 97 home runs in 2010-11, you can take his postbreak run as a positive indicator that maybe he really is back.
You don’t have to be that much of an acid-washed skeptic to suspect that Werth’s recent bit of sluggery probably makes for the shortest comeback. Werth has been demonized ever since he took the Nationals’ offer of ludicrous amounts of cash before the 2011 season, but why blame him for that? There isn’t one of us who wouldn’t have taken a nine-figure offer.
Werth’s checkered health history was an even bigger red flag than his already being beyond age 30 at the time the Nats handed him $126 million, and injuries have certainly undermined his seasons in D.C. His first season, 2011, was sapped by getting hit by pitches in three straight games in early June; whatever Werth’s reputation for fragility, he played through it, but his midseason clip of .175/.307/.277 until his bat came around at the end of July suggests he was far from his best. A fractured wrist in 2012 cost him almost three months, and this season, a hamstring strain took him out for a month.
Werth’s second-half run is quietly helping him produce his best season yet for the Nationals. In his age-34 season, he’s perhaps as healthy as he’s ever been as a National, and his seven postbreak homers are providing a small reminder of one of the reasons GM Mike Rizzo gave him the big bucks. This latest streak provides a small suggestion that maybe there are a few chapters left to write in his already unusual career.
But the guy you really have to feel for is Morneau, the former AL MVP and one of the two towers the Twins were supposed to be able to build an offense around. But ever since his best season was cut short in 2010 by a concussion, his career has not been the same, as he struggled through an injury-abbreviated 2011 and a 2012 season best celebrated for his ability to play daily once more than for his feats at the plate, with just a .773 OPS. He’s been able to keep that up this season, but his bat’s gotten worse.
I’m not going to pretend that Morneau is going to put the Twins back in the headlines any time soon. Nor is Morneau really hitting all that well since the break: .237/.290/.505 with those seven homers and very little else, and they’re being hit against the Mariners, White Sox and Astros. But if anyone playing today deserved a few weeks to enjoy at least an echo of what he once had going for him as one of the game’s top sluggers, I’d agree it ought to be Morneau. This might not be a comeback, but at least it’s a reminder of what was. More power to him.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Greg Fiume/Getty ImagesThere have been a lot of heads hanging around the Nationals this season.The Nationals are now well under .500 and closer to the Marlins than the Braves. With a nod to the Phillies and their $160 million payroll, the Nationals have been the league's biggest disappointment. What were the factors that contributed to their failure?
Gio Gonzalez regressed
Gonzalez finished third in NL Cy Young voting last year, posting a sterling 2.89 ERA with an NL-best 21 wins. It was not his first brush with success. In the two preceding years with the Athletics, he had posted 3.23 and 3.12 ERAs in 200-plus innings. What we didn't see last year, which we are seeing this year, were home runs. In 2010 and 2011, in the pitcher-friendly confines of the O.co Coliseum, between 7.4 and 8.9 percent of fly balls surrendered were home runs. ESPN's park factors rated the O.co Coliseum 28th of 30 ballparks in homer-friendliness in 2010 and 26th in 2011. Nationals Park rated 11th last year and 20th this year.
We should have expected more home runs moving from Oakland to Washington, D.C., but they didn't appear last year. Gonzalez surrendered nine total, below 6 percent of fly balls. They returned this season, though, as he already has allowed 14, nearly 12 percent of fly balls. His ERA sits at 3.57.
Shaky back of the rotation
Rotation depth is one of the more underrated aspects of a successful baseball team. In 2012, the Nationals had Ross Detwiler and Edwin Jackson at the back, posting a 3.40 and a 4.03 ERA, respectively. This year, Detwiler was worse (4.04 ERA) and eventually had to go on the shelf with a herniated disk, ending his season after 13 starts. Dan Haren has been abysmal, sitting on a 5.14 ERA as of Thursday.
Worse middle relief
The 2012 Nats had three relievers (minimum 10 innings) post an ERA above 3.03: Tyler Clippard (3.72), Henry Rodriguez (5.83), and Chien-Ming Wang (7.59). The addition of Rafael Soriano was supposed to increase the bullpen depth, but five guys have ERAs above 3.40: Craig Stammen (3.41), Rodriguez (4.00), Ryan Mattheus (5.82), Drew Storen (5.95), and Zach Duke (8.31). Relief pitchers are remarkably volatile on a year-to-year basis, but you have decent odds if you have guys who strike hitters out in bunches. The 2012 bullpen got batters to whiff on 25 percent of swings, the eighth-highest rate among all 30 bullpens. This year's squad has induced whiffs at a 23 percent rate, the fourth-lowest rate. Fewer whiffs means more balls in play. More balls in play means more hits.
Perhaps some bad luck is involved, as well. The pen has compiled an aggregate .310 batting average on balls in play (eighth-highest in the majors) compared with .279 last year (fourth-lowest).
Adam LaRoche regressed
LaRoche had a career year in 2012, posting an adjusted OPS of 127 (100 is average), the second-best mark of his career. He set a career high with 33 home runs and ranked as the third-best-hitting first baseman in the National League among qualified hitters, going by weighted on-base average (wOBA).
The takeaway, looking at his stats, is that he is simply not making good contact with baseballs on a frequent basis. Both his isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) and his batting average on balls in play are down. His .185 ISO would be his worst in a full season, and his .271 BABIP is 35 points below his career average. Hitters, unlike pitchers, have a great deal of control over their BABIP, so this isn't something entirely random.
Denard Span has been a flop
Nationals outfielders in 2012 combined for a .328 wOBA, just a shade above the major league average of .327. This year, it has dropped to .313, below the league average of .323. The difference in wOBA is worth about 23 fewer runs.
In the offseason, the Nationals acquired Span from the Twins, pushing Harper from center field to left field as they waved goodbye to Michael Morse. From left to right, last year's adjusted OPS went 113/120/126. This year, it is 139/89/145. Can you tell which doesn't belong?
There have been some other minor differences, as well, such as slightly less production from Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond, and you can make the case that they have been worse defensively, as well. The bench has been terrible, with Roger Bernadina, Tyler Moore and Chad Tracy all hitting under .200 and Steve Lombardozzi posting a worthless .580 OPS. After a hot April, Harper got hurt and hasn't been the same. But the above are the glaring reasons the Nationals have failed to live up to the lofty expectations. By no means does this mean they can't surprise us all again in 2014, but, at least for this year, their playoff aspirations are gone. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 0.4 percent chance to reach the postseason, almost all of it related to winning the second wild card.
Bill Baer writes about the Phillies at Crashburn Alley and is a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog.
Rash judgments on trade deadline eve!
July, 31, 2013
Jul 31
12:46
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
There’s never a better time to overreact than on the eve of the trade deadline! General managers, their assistants, their scouts, their special advisors and their stat geeks in the front office have spent weeks assessing their own talent and that of other organizations. But one night can change everything.
Some thoughts on Tuesday's news, rumors and game results ...
Who needs Jake Peavy when you have Brandon Workman! The Red Sox have won the Peavy Sweepstakes, although I don’t know if that means winning the lottery or cashing in your $10 prize at 7-Eleven. Peavy’s injury history (long) and home run issues (14 in 80 innings) make him a wild card acquisition; this isn’t the same thing as trading for Cliff Lee, or even close to trading for Cliff Lee.
Peavy, however, comes a lot cheaper. The Red Sox got to keep all their top prospects and surrendered only slick-fielding Jose Iglesias, who has a superficially good .330/.376/.406 batting line with the Red Sox in 215 at-bats. He’s not close to a .300 hitter, let alone a .330 hitter. A few weeks ago I looked at all his hits and they featured an unsustainable number of infield singles, five-hoppers that sneaked through and bloopers just over the heads of infielders. In July, he’s hitting .205 with one extra-base hit in 83 at-bats and he’s a career .244/.296/.292 hitter in Triple-A in nearly 1,000 plate appearances. But he can pick it at shortstop (or third base, where he’s been playing a lot for the Red Sox) and I suppose there’s a small chance that he could improve at the plate, a la Omar Vizquel.
So good job by Red Sox GM Ben Cherington to sell high on Iglesias, even if Peavy is more of a No. 3-4 starter than a 1 or 2. But acquiring Iglesias makes sense for the Tigers, who will likely see shortstop Jhonny Peralta get suspended any day now in the fallout from the Biogenesis investigation. Iglesias will be an improvement over Peralta on defense -- although Peralta’s minus-3 Defensive Runs Saved haven’t hurt the team as much Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, both rated at minus-10 at the corner infield spots.
The White Sox get Avisail Garcia in the deal, a player scouts like a lot but sabermetric types are skeptical about, due to a low walk rate in the minors. Still, if he puts it together, there’s a lot of upside there. Put me in the skeptical category; probably a big league regular, but I don’t foresee a star player.
The Braves can stand pat. When Detroit’s Alex Avila hit that grand slam off Stephen Strasburg as the Braves were crushing the Rockies, it seems a symbolic moment of the Nationals’ 2013 season to me. They’re now 10 games behind the Braves and the Braves only have seven games left against teams currently over .500. At least the Nationals won’t have to worry about Strasburg’s innings in October.
So the Braves don’t have to make a deal, plus Alex Wood’s strong outing against the Rockies means he should get a few more turns through the rotation. With Peavy off the market, there isn’t really a starter who is a guaranteed upgrade anyway, other than Cliff Lee and he’ll cost a fortune.
You don’t win division titles on paper. Ignore the run differentials. Ignore the recent histories. The Pirates now have the best record in baseball after sweeping Tuesday’s doubleheader and lead the NL Central. Not that the Cardinals organization ever panics or overreacts, but Cardinals fans are certainly tired of seeing Matt Holliday ground into double plays (he’s done that 24 times, giving him a chance to catch Jim Rice’s single-season record of 36) and some dude named Brandon Cumpton shut them down in the second game. Maybe the Cardinals do make a move.
The Pirates should still get a bat. This is one reason we love the trade deadline: When the Cubs signed Nate Schierholtz in the offseason for $2.25 million -- $29.75 million less than Josh Hamilton will make in 2016 and again in 2017 -- it wasn’t exactly headline news. Now he’s viewed as a must-have acquisition for the Pirates because he’s slugging over .500 and Pirates right fielders have the lowest OPS in the majors.
The Orioles should get a bat as well. Chris Davis did hit a big home run a 4-3 win over the Astros, but he and Manny Machado haven’t matched their first-half exploits. The bottom four hitters in Tuesday’s lineup had on-base percentages of .302, .295, .273 and .293. Their DHs are hitting .200. They should be able to find an upgrade. Getting a pitcher would be sexier -- well, if that pitcher were Cliff Lee -- but a hitter would add more depth to an already solid lineup.
Michael Young is great! Hey, forget that he has -0.6 WAR this season, he went 2-for-4 with a home run on Tuesday. His trade value just shot up. Plus he’s a veteran presence in the clubhouse! Warning: Has the range of a flower vase at third base. Beware of defensive risks if employing full time at the hot corner. The Rangers need a hitter, but at least in their case it would be to use Young at DH or first base.
Who needs a third baseman when you have Juan Uribe! Uribe hit a 441-foot home run off Andy Pettitte and is hitting a respectable .263/.335/.406. The Dodgers may do just as well playing Uribe as acquiring some of the lackluster options for third (Young, Aramis Ramirez) or acquiring a shortstop and moving Hanley Ramirez to third (he's hitting so well, don't mess with him right now).
The Indians have momentum (if momentum existed in baseball). They started nine guys on Tuesday and the guy batting ninth had the highest slugging percentage in the lineup. (That’s Yan Gomes, hitting .291 and slugging .520.) They’ve won six in row after rallying from a 3-0 deficit to beat the White Sox. They acquired Marc Rzepczynski from the Cardinals to add a second lefty to the bullpen but acquiring another starter or reliever would help.
Zack Wheeler is the second coming of Matt Harvey. This is one reason we love the trade deadline, part 2: The hope that the prospect your team acquires can turn into Zack Wheeler and flash the no-hit stuff like Wheeler did against the Marlins. Two years ago, the Mets got Wheeler from the Giants for Carlos Beltran. There may not be a Wheeler in this year's crop of trades -- there rarely are -- but you never know.
Cameron Diaz fed popcorn to Alex Rodriguez. Wait ... that didn’t happen on Tuesday? Ahh, those were simpler times.
SweetSpot TV: National League breakdown
July, 25, 2013
Jul 25
12:44
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com


