Nationals suffer big loss with Werth injury
May, 7, 2012
May 7
1:05
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Already struggling to score runs, the Washington Nationals have lost right fielder Jayson Werth for about six weeks after he broke his left wrist trying to make a diving catch on Sunday.
It's the same wrist Werth injured with the Dodgers in 2005, an injury that forced him to miss an entire season and placed his career in jeopardy. Werth will consult with doctors from the Mayo Clinic and also meet with the doctor who operated on his wrist in 2005.
The Nationals have been a great story so far with a 18-10 record, but it's been all about the pitching. They have a staff ERA of 2.59 and the starters have a 2.17 ERA, a .197 opponents batting average and have allowed one run or no runs in 16 of 28 starts. But while they're eight games over .500, they've only outscored their opponents by 12 runs, a difficult ratio to maintain. Werth was one of the few hitters doing anything at the plate, hitting .276/.372/.439, good enough to rank second on the team in OPS behind Adam LaRoche (not including the recently recalled Bryce Harper).
In Werth's absence, expect Harper to move to right field with Xavier Nady and Roger Bernadina platooning in left. Backup infielder Steve Lombardozzi could also see some time out there, as Ryan Zimmerman is expected to return from his own DL stint on Tuesday. LaRoche should also be back in the lineup after missing a few games with an abdominal strain. Considering Nady is hitting .119 and Bernadina .200, don't be surprised to see Lombardozzi get his share of action out there, at least until Mike Morse returns from the back injury that has kept him sidelined all season. He has target return date of June 1.
The Nationals rank 14th in the NL in runs scored, averaging just 3.4 runs per game. Zimmerman was struggling when he went on the DL, hitting .224/.324/.345. Second baseman Danny Espinosa is hitting just .192 with one home run, two RBIs and is tied for second in the majors with 34 strikeouts. But Werth's replacements will have to produce some offense.
"We have to step up, guys in the outfield," Nady told MLB.com. "There is enough talent on this team to step in. It's a long season, Hopefully, we can hold it down [until] he gets back. I feel bad for him. It stinks."
It's the same wrist Werth injured with the Dodgers in 2005, an injury that forced him to miss an entire season and placed his career in jeopardy. Werth will consult with doctors from the Mayo Clinic and also meet with the doctor who operated on his wrist in 2005.
The Nationals have been a great story so far with a 18-10 record, but it's been all about the pitching. They have a staff ERA of 2.59 and the starters have a 2.17 ERA, a .197 opponents batting average and have allowed one run or no runs in 16 of 28 starts. But while they're eight games over .500, they've only outscored their opponents by 12 runs, a difficult ratio to maintain. Werth was one of the few hitters doing anything at the plate, hitting .276/.372/.439, good enough to rank second on the team in OPS behind Adam LaRoche (not including the recently recalled Bryce Harper).
In Werth's absence, expect Harper to move to right field with Xavier Nady and Roger Bernadina platooning in left. Backup infielder Steve Lombardozzi could also see some time out there, as Ryan Zimmerman is expected to return from his own DL stint on Tuesday. LaRoche should also be back in the lineup after missing a few games with an abdominal strain. Considering Nady is hitting .119 and Bernadina .200, don't be surprised to see Lombardozzi get his share of action out there, at least until Mike Morse returns from the back injury that has kept him sidelined all season. He has target return date of June 1.
The Nationals rank 14th in the NL in runs scored, averaging just 3.4 runs per game. Zimmerman was struggling when he went on the DL, hitting .224/.324/.345. Second baseman Danny Espinosa is hitting just .192 with one home run, two RBIs and is tied for second in the majors with 34 strikeouts. But Werth's replacements will have to produce some offense.
"We have to step up, guys in the outfield," Nady told MLB.com. "There is enough talent on this team to step in. It's a long season, Hopefully, we can hold it down [until] he gets back. I feel bad for him. It stinks."
Lynn, Lohse gives Cards surprise 1-2 punch
May, 7, 2012
May 7
10:30
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
US PresswireLance Lynn and Kyle Lohse are a combined 9-1 and have walked just 14 in 11 starts.The Cardinals own a run differential of plus-62 runs -- that's greater than the sum of the Nationals (+14), Dodgers (+12), Braves (+27), Reds (+5) and Giants (+3). St. Louis is second in runs scored (to Atlanta) and second in runs allowed (to Washington). The Cardinals have done this despite the spring training injury to Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright's slow start coming back from Tommy John surgery (a strong effort on Sunday lowered his ERA to 5.61), Lance Berkman's DL stint (he's missed 21 games) and Allen Craig's late return from offseason knee surgery (he just returned last week).
The accolades run deep -- Jon Jay leads the league with a .392 average, David Freese is fifth with 24 RBIs, Rafael Furcal has a .402 on-base percentage -- but credit for the hot start has to begin with Lance Lynn and Kyle Lohse. The two are a combined 9-1 with a 1.88 ERA in 11 starts. Lynn, who starts Monday night against the Diamondbacks, ranks fifth in the NL with a 1.60 ERA; Lohse ranks 11th with 2.11 ERA.
When pitching coach Dave Duncan resigned from his post in January to spend more time with his wife Jeanine (who had a brain tumor removed last August), there were concerns the pitching staff would suffer without Tony La Russa's right-hand man. The early returns under Derek Lilliquist are positive as the Cardinals have a 3.08 ERA and have walked just 58 batters, fewest in the NL. Last year's staff posted a 3.74 ERA and also relied on throwing strikes -- the Cardinals walked the fourth-fewest hitters in the league -- but that staff also featured Carpenter as rotation anchor.
That's what makes the first months for Lynn and Lohse so important (Jake Westbrook is also 3-2 with a 2.19 ERA). Lynn's numbers may be the most surprising since he pitched out of the bullpen as a rookie last season after getting called up from Triple-A (he still qualifies as a rookie). He pitched so well in relief -- 40 strikeouts in 32.1 innings, plus a dominant 5.2 scoreless innings against the Brewers in the NLCS after missing more than a month with a strained oblique -- that many forgot that he was groomed as a starter in the minor leagues. The 39th overall pick in 2008 out of the University of Mississippi, Lynn threw hard but never posted dominant numbers as a starter in the minors. When Carpenter went down, there was speculation the Cardinals would move to sign free agent Roy Oswalt. Instead, they promoted Lynn to the rotation
All he's done in winning his first five starts is allow six runs and hold opponents to a .167 batting average. Two things stand out for the burly right-hander: He's maintained his velocity (after averaging 93.2 mph on his fastball in relief, it's held at 92.4 so far as a starter) and he's thrown strikes. He's cut his walk rate from 2.9 per nine innings as a reliever to 1.9 as a starter (he averaged three walks per nine in 12 starts in Triple-A in 2011). Lynn relies on three different fastballs: a four-seamer that touches 95, a two-seam sinker and an occasional cutter. He mixes in a curve and an infrequent changeup that he uses against left-handers, but relies primarily on his various fastballs, which he throws about 70 percent of the time. In the minors, he relied a lot on his sinker, but he used his four-seamer more out of the pen last year, when he would crank it up to 97-98 mph at times. He seems to have taken that philosophy with him when he starts a game.
Looking at his heat map for 2012, you can see his game plan: feed left-handers on the outside corner, while throwing a lot of fastballs up and away to right-handers.
ESPN Stats & InformationLance Lynn's pitch location for 2012 versus left-handers and right-handers.This is where we have point out that four of Lynn's five starts have come against the Cubs and Pirates. Nonetheless, right now this is a confident pitcher who trusts his stuff. If he continues to pound that outside corner against left-handers, I don't see why Lynn's success can't continue. After his last win, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny praised his pitcher's mental toughness, telling MLB.com, "I think he was just following along what we've been preaching, and that is one pitch at a time." Cubs manager Dale Sveum described Lynn's fastball as a heavy fastball and praised his ability to move it around the strike zone. What you have is a young starter with a power pitcher's body starting to pitching like a power potential. His upside is clearly much higher than a year ago, maybe who can slot in as a No. 2 starter.
Lohse is a little more difficult to analyze, since his raw stuff is nowhere near impressive as Lynn's. His average fastball clocks in at 89 mph. After the journeyman right-hander posted a 5.54 ERA with the Cardinals in 2009-10, his career appeared to be in jeopardy, especially after forearm surgery in May of 2010. He had something called "compartment syndrome," in which a sheath covering a muscle in the forearm doesn't allow it expand. The injury is apparently extremely rare in baseball. When Giants pitcher Noah Lowry suffered the same injury in 2008, the Giants failed to find another pitcher who had had the same injury. Lowry never returned to the majors.
Lohse ended up returning in August and then went 14-8, 3.39 last year, the lowest ERA of his career. In 2012, he's been even better, as opponents are hitting .209 against him. Always a guy who relied on control, he's cut down on his walks to two per nine innings.
So what's been the difference for Lohse in 2011-12 as compared to 2009-10, besides better health? Since his fastball is hardly overpowering, it's all about location and keeping hitters off-balance with his two-seam sinking fastball, slider, changeup and occasional curve. Look at the heat map below and you can see the fine line between Lohse succeeding and Lohse getting hammered. On the left, Lohse's pitch location in 2009-10; on the right, Lohse's location in 2011-12.
ESPN.comKyle Lohse's pitch location in 2009-10 (left), versus his location in 2011-12.The differences are slight but noticeable; he's catching more of the inside corner against lefties/outside corner against righties and less of the center of the plate. He's also pitching down in the zone a little more.
Lohse doesn't throw as many groundballs as Lynn, so a key for him is keeping the ball in the park. After not allowing a home run in his first four starts, he gave up two against the Brewers on April 28 and a three-run shot to Houston's Jose Altuve in his only loss on May 4. Like Lynn, Lohse has benefited from a low BABIP so far and also high strand rates, so we can obviously expect both pitchers to regress from their hot starts. That may be true of the St. Louis staff as a whole: Despite its early success, it ranks just 15th in the NL strikeouts.
So, yes, maybe regression will happen, but it's also true that Lynn and Lohse make the Cardinals' rotation a lot stronger than it appeared when the club left Florida at the end of spring training.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
First base: Here come the Marlins. The Marlins won their sixth straight game to improve to .500. All six wins came on the road, in San Francisco and San Diego, with four of the wins coming by one run and two in extra innings. The key battle in Sunday's 6-3 win over the Padres came in eighth inning with the game tied, the bases loaded, two outs and Giancarlo Stanton facing reliever Andrew Cashner. Stanton saw eight high-octane fastballs from Cashner -- seven at 101 mph, one at 102 mph. Stanton missed the first pitch, later fouled off two pitches and then drew a walk on a 3-2 pitch to give the Marlins the lead. With Cashner perhaps rattled by the bases-loaded walks, the Marlins proceeded to add three more runs on a John Buck passed ball, a Gaby Sanchez single and another passed ball.
"I saw 102 (mph) but you can throw 120 and without command you are going to get hurt," Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen said. "It's all about command and making good pitches. It was a hell of an at-bat." Stanton is also getting locked in. After going homerless for 19 games, he's hit five in his past eight games. Ricky Nolasco also pitched well again, improving to 4-0 with a 2.72 ERA. He's allowed 12 runs in his start, relying on control (nine walks) and keeping the ball in the park (one home run). The Marlins finish their road trip with three games in Houston. Could this be a 9-0 trip?
Second base: Let's settle this on the playground. You have to love Jamie Moyer and Chipper Jones getting into a little squabble over stealing signs. Kids will be kids, I guess. Moyer accused Jones of relaying signs while on second base. But what's odd is Chipper's response: "Any time a grown man gets his integrity questioned, they're going to take it seriously and I'm no different. If he wants to discuss it, we'll discuss it, but he's wrong, plain and simple," he said. But haven't we been led to believe that stealing signs is, you know, part of the game? A sort of legal way to cheat, as opposed to, oh, let's say performance enhancing drugs. Yet Chipper acts like his his very manhood was thrown in the gutter. Could it be that stealing signs is considered an immoral way to victory?
Third base: Mixed messages. Two pitchers in need of positive returns also delivered on Sunday, as Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez threw seven shutout innings against the Rangers while Mat Latos struck out 11 in six scoreless frames. However, let's not get too excited just yet. While Jimenez allowed just two hits, he also walked five against six strikeouts, a sign that his control issues remain an issue (25 walks, just 20 strikeouts on the season). Latos' game came against the Pirates; still, that's two scoreless outings in his past three starts. While I'd still be concerned about Jimenez, maybe Latos is finally showing the talent that made him so effective with the Padres.
Home plate. Tweet of the day. Bryce Harper stole home. On a pickoff throw to first base by Cole Hamels. After reaching when Hamels hit him with a pitch. Which Hamels admitted after the game he did on purpose. As Joe Sheehan tweeted ...
"I saw 102 (mph) but you can throw 120 and without command you are going to get hurt," Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen said. "It's all about command and making good pitches. It was a hell of an at-bat." Stanton is also getting locked in. After going homerless for 19 games, he's hit five in his past eight games. Ricky Nolasco also pitched well again, improving to 4-0 with a 2.72 ERA. He's allowed 12 runs in his start, relying on control (nine walks) and keeping the ball in the park (one home run). The Marlins finish their road trip with three games in Houston. Could this be a 9-0 trip?
Second base: Let's settle this on the playground. You have to love Jamie Moyer and Chipper Jones getting into a little squabble over stealing signs. Kids will be kids, I guess. Moyer accused Jones of relaying signs while on second base. But what's odd is Chipper's response: "Any time a grown man gets his integrity questioned, they're going to take it seriously and I'm no different. If he wants to discuss it, we'll discuss it, but he's wrong, plain and simple," he said. But haven't we been led to believe that stealing signs is, you know, part of the game? A sort of legal way to cheat, as opposed to, oh, let's say performance enhancing drugs. Yet Chipper acts like his his very manhood was thrown in the gutter. Could it be that stealing signs is considered an immoral way to victory?
Third base: Mixed messages. Two pitchers in need of positive returns also delivered on Sunday, as Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez threw seven shutout innings against the Rangers while Mat Latos struck out 11 in six scoreless frames. However, let's not get too excited just yet. While Jimenez allowed just two hits, he also walked five against six strikeouts, a sign that his control issues remain an issue (25 walks, just 20 strikeouts on the season). Latos' game came against the Pirates; still, that's two scoreless outings in his past three starts. While I'd still be concerned about Jimenez, maybe Latos is finally showing the talent that made him so effective with the Padres.
Home plate. Tweet of the day. Bryce Harper stole home. On a pickoff throw to first base by Cole Hamels. After reaching when Hamels hit him with a pitch. Which Hamels admitted after the game he did on purpose. As Joe Sheehan tweeted ...
Bryce Harper is going to end up as one of those barometers, where you divide humanity into the people who like him and the ones who don't.
— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) May 7, 2012
Team of destiny? Orioles have magic look
May, 6, 2012
May 6
10:27
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
One play doesn't make a season. Logically, we understand this. But you know, it's a lot more fun to throw logic out the window and turn to the emotion of a moment sometimes, the emotion of one important victory and believe, "Maybe ... just maybe, the Baltimore Orioles are a team of destiny."
We're allowed to think like this, right? Put the history and preseason predictions aside, focus on the Orioles' hot start, focus on their big week and focus on how they completed a sweep of the Boston Red Sox at Fenway: With infielder Chris Davis pitching two innings to get the win in a 17-inning, 9-6 victory, one I would call implausible except the Orioles forged ahead against another position player, Darnell McDonald.
Davis, who pitched in high school, retired the first two hitters in the bottom of the 16th, including a strikeout of Jarrod Saltalamacchia on a pretty 83-mph changeup that showed some nice vertical drop. But third baseman Wilson Betemit booted Marlon Byrd's routine grounder and Mike Aviles lined a double into left-center that rolled to the Green Monster. Then, the play, one that could go down in Orioles history if this season builds into the unthinkable: Adam Jones to J.J. Hardy to Matt Wieters, who tagged out a piano-on-his-back Byrd. A perfect relay by Jones, a perfect missile by Hardy, a perfect block of the plate by Wieters to send the game to the 17th inning.
The Red Sox had also churned through their bullpen by now and turned to outfielder McDonald, but Jones deposited a three-run homer into the Green Monster seats. With two runners on in the bottom of the frame, Davis struck out the slumping Adrian Gonzalez (0-for-8 this game) on another changeup and then, on his 23rd pitch and 570th of the game, induced McDonald to ground into a 6-4-3 double play.
Some of the crazy factoids: It was the first time two position players pitched in the same game since 1925, when Ty Cobb and George Sisler pitched in the second game of a doubleheader on the season's final day; Wilson Valdez won a game last season for the Phillies, but Davis became the first American League position player to record a win since Rocky Colavito of the Yankees in 1968; Davis also went 0-for-8 and struck out five times to record the season's first platinum sombrero (he was also the only position player to strike out five times in 2011); it was the Orioles' first sweep in Boston since June of 1994.
The game left the Orioles ecstatic and the Red Sox despondent.
"I was like 'Sweet! I get to try something different today -- because hitting ain't working,'" Davis said.
"Basically, that was my first thought." Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. "Just when you think you've seen it all, some days you come out here and just assume the position. That was fun. It was a long day, but you like to get something good out of it."
Bobby Valentine, looking in his postgame news conference like he was ready to break into tears at any moment, oddly stated that Gonzalez wanted to pitch. "And for the record, I didn't put him out there," he said. You do wonder, once Showalter had gone to Davis in the bottom of the 16th, why Valentine didn't try to eke at least one more inning from veteran reliever Scott Atchison, who had thrown 23 pitches over two innings. Yes, Atchison had thrown 35 pitches on Saturday and three on Friday, but it would seem the value of one more inning would have been huge. Who knows how Davis would have responded pitching in a tie game, for example, rather than with a three-run lead.
It all leaves the Orioles at 19-9. First place by a half game over the Tampa Bay Rays, four games ahead of the New York Yankees and 7.5 games ahead of the Red Sox.
At the start of the week, we said this would be an important week for the Orioles. They entered 14-8 but had three games in New York and three in Boston. This stretch would reveal the real Baltimore Orioles. And by "real" we meant "a team playing over its head." But they went 5-1 as they held the Yankees to three runs and took extra-inning games against the Red Sox. They outscored their AL East rivals 36 to 15. There was nothing flukey about the week. They hit, they pitched and they fielded.
On Sunday, the bullpen (including Davis) allowed just one run in 12.2 innings, lowering their season ERA to 1.41 (no other team is below 2.00). Closer Jim Johnson hasn't allowed a run, Luis Ayala and Matt Lindstrom have yet to allow an earned run and Darren O'Day has allowed just one run. It should be noted that the latter three are new to the club, new additions brought on to improve a pen that ranked 13th in the AL in ERA. Much like the 2011 Diamondbacks improved from 65 to 94 in part by revamping one of the worst bullpens in baseball, so hope the Orioles. The starting pitching has also been solid, and Baltimore's 2.78 ERA ranks second in the majors. Not bad for a team that has ranked 29th or 30th in ERA in five of the past six seasons.
Look, playing in the AL East, it's not going to get easier for the Orioles, so they'll need this bullpen to continue pitching lights-out baseball. Their next 32 games: Four against the Rangers, three against the Rays, two against the Yankees, two at the Royals, three at the Nationals, three against the Red Sox, three against the Royals, three at the Blue Jays, three at the Rays, three at the Red Sox, three against the Phillies. Whew.
For a franchise with the long stink of losing, it's a fun start. Check out, however, their records after 28 games the past 10 seasons. Check, in particular, 2005 (Orioles fans may wish to stop reading now):
2012: 19-9, +0.5
2011: 13-15, -4.5
2010: 7-21, -13.5
2009: 11-18, -8
2008: 16-12, -0.5
2007: 12-16, -6
2006: 14-14, -4
2005: 19-9, +2.5
2004: 16-12, -1.5
2003: 15-13, -6.5
Yep, that same 19-9 record. That team blazed out of the gate thanks to a strong offense. The club hit .302 in April and was still hitting .287 with a .483 slugging percentage through June 19 ... when the Orioles were 41-27 and still in first place.
And then the bottom dropped out. They hung in the race through mid-July, but then went on a 2-16 stretch, during which manager Lee Mazzilli was fired. They'd finish 74-88, just another in a long string of losing seasons.
Now, there is one big difference between those 2005 Orioles and these 2012. That team had a mostly aging lineup -- Rafael Palmeiro (in his final, steroid-tainted season), B.J. Surhoff, Sammy Sosa, Javy Lopez, Melvin Mora and Miguel Tejada were all 31 or older. The rotation of Rodrigo Lopez, Erik Bedard, Bruce Chen, Daniel Cabrera and Sidney Ponson eventually wilted in the summer heat. The bullpen was thin behind B.J. Ryan.
This team, however, is young. At 30, Betemit is the oldest regular in the lineup, although 34-year-old Endy Chavez is playing right now with Nolan Reimold on the disabled list. At 29, Jason Hammel is the old man in the rotation.
Being young perhaps means this team could eventually collapse under the relentless pressure of games against the Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays and Red Sox. But it could also signify a team on the rise.
Or, maybe, a team of destiny.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
AP Photo/Amy SancettaThe Tribe did not just win the World Series, but Chris Perez likes sealing up a win over Texas.
The Society for American Baseball Research recently cranked out a history of the 1970 Baltimore Orioles, appropriately titled, Pitching, Defense, and Three-Run Homers, reflecting the three things that their skipper, Earl Weaver, always preached as the three most reliable pillars of victory in baseball.
And you know what? The rules, let alone the basic principles of how you win ballgames, really haven’t changed that much since those days. Even with the addition of the designated hitter in 1973, today’s American League is scoring just 4.3 runs per team per game against the 4.2 runs per game that the league did in 1970, back when pitchers still had to hit in the junior circuit. Which suggests that, even with a pile of advanced metrics to better assess player value and with better tools (statistical and technological) to evaluate player performance, teams are in much the same boat as far as what it takes to win. Want to contend? You’ll want pitching and defense and scoring runs on home runs, early and often.
Which is where the Rays come in, as well as the recently rehatched Orioles, because that same three-point formula for success is one that the these two teams -- especially the Rays with their significantly more analytical bent than Weaver’s old 3x5 note cards from the pre-PC days in the dugout -- have taken to heart as they seek to be giant-killers in the AL East. Or maybe that should be giant-payroll-killers, because the Boston Red Sox haven’t finished better than third since 2009, and the way this year is going for them, getting back to the postseason may not be in the cards. So keep that in mind: The Rays are a power already, but are the Orioles about to become one?
So let’s start with defense, tough as that is to get a handle on. The Orioles currently rank third in the league in park-adjusted defensive efficiency (PADE), reflecting an improvement on defense that should speak well for their future if they can keep it up. PADE is the metric that adjusts the simple rate of outs created on balls in play for where the teams play, and was created by James Click for Baseball Prospectus back before he was the director of baseball research and development for ... why, none other than the Tampa Bay Rays.
Guess who ranked first in PADE last year? The Tampa Bay Rays. They rank a much more modest 21st overall at present, but they’re also trying to recover from a series of injuries that have made Joe Maddon’s day-to-day tailored lineups into even more of a daily guessing game; when the Rays come back toward the top before the end of the year, don’t act surprised. And can the Orioles keep that up? It may not be easy, but getting Mark Reynolds off the field a lot more often this year than last is a good start.
So, how about fence-busting power on offense? There has already been a good amount of deserved attention placed on the Rays’ power on offense. Through Saturday’s action, they’re fourth in the league in total homers hit, and their "Guillen number" -- the percentage of their total runs they’re scoring on home runs -- is also fourth in the league at 40.8 percent. But guess who’s doing better in both regards? The Yankees, of course -- every bit as unsubtle as the day Babe Ruth donned pinstripes, they’re scoring 48 percent of their runs on homers.
But the other team ahead of them in both homers and percentage of runs scored on homers are the Orioles, thanks in no small part to Adam Jones, Matt Wieters and Chris Davis living up to several years’ worth of anticipation. They’re doing it without the help of single-minded slugger Reynolds, and without much production from Nick Markakis, but just running through the names gives you reason to believe the O’s will be able to keep producing thunder with the lumber. All five of them are between 26 and 28 years old, right around when hitters are generally predicted to produce their peak seasons.
Which leaves pitching, where you might be surprised to learn that the Orioles have notched more quality starts in the early going with 15 to the Rays’ 13. The Rays’ rotation comes out on top for runs allowed per nine (3.71 to 4.04), but considering that the Rays get their deserved touts for their top talents like Matt Moore and big-name starters like David Price and James Shields, you can be a little impressed with how the Orioles’ relatively anonymous front five have been doing.
But here again, that’s where you might expect more from the Rays going forward than the Orioles, because one-month Cinderella stories have more than their share of pumpkins instead of happy endings. While Jake Arrieta looks like the real deal, it’s going to be difficult for bend-don’t-break defense-dependent starters like Tommy Hunter and Wei-Yin Chen to keep beating people without a lot of help from their friends.
It’s especially hard to know what to expect from Jason Hammel going forward; if he keeps striking out 24 percent of opposing batters, he’ll be the elite starter he’s pitched like in six starts so far, but it’s such a remarkable development in the context of his career considering that he was striking out less than two-thirds that many guys over the previous six seasons.
If the Orioles have fixed Hammel, as Rick Sutcliffe has suggested on Baseball Tonight, it’ll be a great example of a former Rays prospect that his former team might regret letting get away. And if the Rays and Orioles are going to be serious about becoming the new twin powers in the AL East, it’ll ratchet up that rivalry another notch.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christopher Hanewinckel/US PresswireAnd you thought the Marlins' new color scheme stopped at the ballpark or the logo.Kernels of Wisdom: Week in review
May, 5, 2012
May 5
3:49
PM ET
By Doug Kern, ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
- Matt Garza surrendered a bloop single to Jimmy Rollins to start Sunday's game in Philadelphia. He then retired 17 straight (and got Rollins trying to advance on a wild pitch) before walking Juan Pierre in the seventh.
It's the first time a Cubs pitcher has allowed a maximum of one hit and gotten at least 10 strikeouts since Carlos Zambrano threw his hurricane-displaced no-hitter at Miller Park on Sept. 14, 2008.
No Cubs starter has allowed a leadoff hit as his only hit of the game (and won the game) since Steve Trachsel threw a complete-game one-hitter against the Astros on May 13, 1996. The lone hit in that game was a leadoff double to Brian Hunter. - Curtis Granderson laid down a sacrifice bunt (in the first inning), drew a bases-loaded walk and then hit a solo home run in his first three plate appearances against the Tigers on Sunday.
The last Yankee to have a homer, a sacrifice, and a walk in one game: Derek Jeter, on July 25, 2000.[+] Enlarge
Dustin Bradford/Icon SMIEven at 38, the Rockies' Todd Helton showed recently that he still can be clutch in key situations. - No matter what they say about fresh young talent, sometimes it's the old reliable guys who make the difference. On Sunday, the Rockies got a pinch-hit grand slam from 38-year-old Todd Helton to tie the game in the eighth. On Wednesday, they got a three-run pinch-hit homer from 41-year-old Jason Giambi to walk off with an 8-5 win over the Dodgers.
The starter in Sunday's game where Helton hit the slam? Forty-nine-year-old Jamie Moyer. - Wesley Wright entered Monday's game for the Astros, threw one pitch, retired Daniel Murphy, and left the game. On Tuesday he entered the game, threw one pitch, and got Ike Davis to ground out to end the inning.
He's the first pitcher to make appearances in two straight team games, face one batter in each game, and retire each of them on one pitch, since George Sherrill did so for the Mariners on Aug. 1 and 2 of 2006. (Others have done it in two straight appearances, but not in consecutive team games.)
Wilton Lopez, whom Wright replaced, also threw only one pitch on Monday, retiring Ruben Tejada to end the seventh inning. So the Astros had four consecutive pitches thrown by four different hurlers (albeit across an inning break). No team has done that since the White Sox did five straight on Aug. 21, 2007. - The Royals recalled Nate Adcock from Triple-A Omaha on Friday night with the expectation that he would start Saturday's game in Minnesota. Manager Ned Yost commented that his bullpen was worn down and that he needed an innings-eater. "Right now we need depth, we need protection." As it turned out, that Saturday game got rained out.
It worked out. Scheduled starter Bruce Chen got pulled in the third inning on Sunday after giving up six runs, and Adcock was brought in to finish the rest of the game -- all 5 1/3 innings and 93 pitches of it. It's the longest outing by a Royals reliever since Luke Hudson gave up 11 runs to Cleveland in the 1st inning on Aug. 13, 2006. Todd Wellemeyer had to be called in to rescue that inning, and pitched all the way until the seventh. - It's been a big week for pinch-hit homers. The Padres' Mark Kotsay hit a two-run shot in the eighth inning on Tuesday that proved to be not just the game winner, but the only runs of the game for either team. San Diego beat Milwaukee 2-0.
The last game where the only runs scored came on a pinch-hit homer, was on Sept. 6, 2006, also in San Diego. Paul McAnulty hit a two-run walk-off shot in the 11th to give the Padres a 2-0 win over Colorado.
The last time it happened in "regulation" was on Aug. 27, 2005 (Arizona's Alex Cintron with a two-run jack in the seventh against Philadelphia). - Rockies manager Jim Tracy made a controversial decision to intentionally walk Matt Kemp in Wednesday's game with the Dodgers. There were two outs in the ninth inning, a runner already on first base, and Kemp would represent the tying run. The move backfired as the next hitter, Dee Gordon, doubled in both runs and to tie the game, although Colorado later walked off with the win in the bottom of the ninth.
Kemp is the first batter to be intentionally walked to put the tying run on base in the ninth inning since Miguel Cabrera last August. (In a couple cases, the tying run was already on base and the walk was to the go-ahead run.) And in that case, first base was open and it was sort of a no-brainer.
The last time the tying run was intentionally put on base in the ninth inning, with first base already occupied, was on May 23, 2004. The Phillies' Tim Worrell walked Ryan Klesko to fill the bases, but with the pitcher's spot due up next. (In that case, it worked; the Phillies escaped with a two-run victory.) - In Jered Weaver's no-hitter on Wednesday night, the home plate umpire was 14-year veteran Mark Carlson, who had never before called a no-hitter. However, he was at second base when Ubaldo Jimenez threw his on April 17, 2010.
For the rest of the crew, however, Weaver's gem completed two "umpire no-hit cycles." Ed Hickox, the first-base arbiter, has only umpired four no-no's, but they've come at each of the four different positions: behind the plate for Matt Garza's in 2010; at second when Clay Buchholz threw his in 2007; and at third for Jim Abbott's no-no way back in 1993.
Ed Rapuano was at second base on Wednesday, marking his fifth no-hitter on the field. However, he had twice been at first base, meaning Weaver also completed his cycle.
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Rick Osentoski/US PresswireThe Tigers' Austin Jackson recently recorded the eighth four-hit game of his career. - Austin Jackson had yet another four-hit game in the Tigers' win over Kansas City on Tuesday. It's already the third four-hit game for him this season, leading the majors. In fact, last season no leadoff hitter had more than four such games. (Jackson himself had two, and now has a career total of eight.)
Jackson is already halfway to the Tigers' record for four-hit games by a leadoff batter; Harvey Kuenn had six during the 1955 season and 14 for his career in Motown. - Felix Doubront surrendered six hits and five runs to the Athletics on Tuesday as the Red Sox's up-and-down season continued. Lost in Doubront's performance, however, was that he recorded eight of his 12 outs via the strikeout, including striking out the side in the first even though it took him 30 pitches. Cliff Lee lost his memorable 16-strikeout game last season. But Doubront is the first Boston starter to lose a game where he averaged two K's per completed inning since Roger Clemens in 1996. On May 28 that year, Clemens also posted eight strikeouts in four innings in a 6-2 loss to the Athletics."Jesus Montero, Seattle's most-publicized offseason acquisition, went 4-for-4 with a double in Tuesday's game at Tampa Bay. All of his at-bats came with no one on base. After reaching base, Montero was twice erased at second, and twice stranded at second. He's the first player this season to have a four-hit game with no runs scored and none batted in. No Mariner had done it, and included an extra-base hit, since Ichiro Suzuki in 2005. And Montero is the first player in Seattle baseball history (yes, that includes the Pilots) to be a perfect 4-for-4 or better, with at least one extra-base hit, and not score or drive in a single run. Needless to say, the Mariners lost that game, 3-1.
- Carlos Beltran hit a pair of three-run homers as part of his four-hit, seven-RBI day against the Pirates on Wednesday. He was the first Cardinal to have four hits and seven RBIs since Mark Whiten's four-homer game in 1993. St. Louis also scored four in the first, three in the second, and five in the third in that game, and then shut it down. They didn't score again the rest of the game and won 12-3. The last team to score 12-plus runs in a game, all coming in the first three innings, was on June 11, 2010, when the Red Sox went 5-4-3 in a 12-2 interleague win over Philadelphia.
- Joe Blanton tossed a complete-game shutout over the Braves in just 88 pitches and 2 hours and 2 minutes on Thursday. It was, by eight minutes, the shortest game time-wise so far this season, and the shortest at Turner Field since August 2006. It was also the fewest number of pitches needed for a Phillies pitcher to throw a shutout since Mike Grace did it in 84 pitches against the Yankees in September 1997.
- Cardinals pitcher Jake Westbrook stole a base on Thursday. For real. It wasn't a botched hit-and-run or the back end of a double steal or something. Westbrook took off on an 0-2 pitch and made it. It was the first successful steal by a pitcher this season. There were three last year, most recently by Zack Greinke on Aug. 28. The last Cardinals pitcher to steal a base (while in the game as a pitcher, not as a pinch runner) was Joel Pineiro on April 15, 2009.
Earlier this week, when Evan Longoria went down with a hamstring injury, there was a piece written on this very blog by David Schoenfield saying that the Tampa Bay Rays would be able to survive the loss of their third baseman. And as we sit here on Friday night with the Rays having won six straight -- four of which came without Longoria -- it's safe to say that Mr. Schoenfield is looking pretty smart.
Why are the Rays so well-equipped to survive the loss of an All-Star? Because their starting pitching is the envy of the American League, and it begins with David Price, who struck out 12 Oakland Athletics in eight innings of work on Friday in a 7-2 victory.
Price has been among the better pitchers in baseball over the past two seasons, but it always seemed like he had another level he could reach. He's always been incredibly reliant on his fastball -- and with good reason -- but all of his pitches seemed to be on the same plane. You hear scouts and coaches talk about "changing a hitter's eye level," and Price's offerings have a tendency to to come at hitters from the same angle. As good as his heater is, that weakness makes him hittable when his location is a bit off.
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Kim Klement/US PRESSWIREDavid Price struck out 12 A's on Friday and the Rays won their sixth straight game.
Kim Klement/US PRESSWIREDavid Price struck out 12 A's on Friday and the Rays won their sixth straight game.That increased use of the change is evident in his performance against right-handed hitters, who have a .574 OPS against him this year, as opposed to lefties, who have a .681 mark. For comparison, righties had a .708 OPS against him in 2011, while lefties posted a .508 OPS.
His strikeout numbers are actually a bit down, as he's fanning just 6.82 men per nine innings. However, the combination of Price's two-seam fastball and changeup is allowing him to generate more ground balls than ever. Price currently has a ground ball-fly ball ratio of 1.14, and his previous career high is 0.85. The Rays' defense is always among the best in the league, so there is no harm in Price sacrificing strikeouts for ground balls. Of course, he did fan 12 men tonight, so don't think he's becoming some sort of pitch-to-contact specialist.
Price's use of his changeup bears watching this season, as he has always need a reliable off-speed pitch to combat righties when his fastball wasn't at its best. If this early-season performance is a sign of what's to come, we're looking at a Cy Young candidate.
We needed two guests to fill Eric Karabell's shoes as pinch-hitters on Friday's Baseball Today podcast and found a pair that filled the void with insightful discussion.
Baseball Tonight's Doug Glanville joined me and talked about the impact of the injury to Yankees closer Mariano Rivera. Doug explains why he'd give Rafael Soriano the first shot at closing even though David Robertson may be better suited for the role.
Pablo Sandoval goes down and we look at the impact of his injury to the offensively challenged Giants. Is there another hitter whose absence would be missed as much?
Breaking news: One of Doug's former teammates, Bobby Abreu, signs with the Dodgers. Doug explains the valuable role and the specific skills that Abreu will bring in helping someone like Dee Gordon become a better hitter.
Doug's defensive thought of the week is on the role of the warning track, and how it's not anywhere as useful as you might think. He has a lot to say on the subject.
Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey was our guest on the back end of the podcast. The Rays are the hottest team in baseball right now, with a large credit for that going to their bullpen. We run through the process and conversations that went into fixing Fernando Rodney.
Though we forgot Jeff Niemann, we went through the Rays' rotation starter-by-starter and looked at the keys to their success, and what their future may hold.
What role do the Rays' pitchers play in the team's defensive shifting? Jim explains. He also shared the most unusual strategic decision he's ever played a part in.
All that, and a two-minute-drill style run through four(!) Ridiculous Questions of the Day. Check it out here.
Baseball Tonight's Doug Glanville joined me and talked about the impact of the injury to Yankees closer Mariano Rivera. Doug explains why he'd give Rafael Soriano the first shot at closing even though David Robertson may be better suited for the role.
Pablo Sandoval goes down and we look at the impact of his injury to the offensively challenged Giants. Is there another hitter whose absence would be missed as much?
Breaking news: One of Doug's former teammates, Bobby Abreu, signs with the Dodgers. Doug explains the valuable role and the specific skills that Abreu will bring in helping someone like Dee Gordon become a better hitter.
Doug's defensive thought of the week is on the role of the warning track, and how it's not anywhere as useful as you might think. He has a lot to say on the subject.
Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey was our guest on the back end of the podcast. The Rays are the hottest team in baseball right now, with a large credit for that going to their bullpen. We run through the process and conversations that went into fixing Fernando Rodney.
Though we forgot Jeff Niemann, we went through the Rays' rotation starter-by-starter and looked at the keys to their success, and what their future may hold.
What role do the Rays' pitchers play in the team's defensive shifting? Jim explains. He also shared the most unusual strategic decision he's ever played a part in.
All that, and a two-minute-drill style run through four(!) Ridiculous Questions of the Day. Check it out here.
Let's hope Rivera hasn't thrown final pitch
May, 4, 2012
May 4
12:20
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Imagine being the best in the world at something. Doesn't matter what it is. The best chef or painter or auto mechanic or blogger or cancer researcher or whatever.
That title, of course, would be under dispute. And if bequeathed such a label, there would be natural push back that somebody else is better, plus there is a likelihood that your ego would run amok and you'd start attending Vanity Fair Oscar parties in an outfit designed by Tom Ford or write a self-improvement guide-to-life book.
This is why we love Mariano Rivera. His title -- Greatest Closer of All Time (tm) -- is not under dispute. Nobody disputes this. OK, maybe a few isolated souls who attempt to state the case for Goose Gossage or maybe Hoyt Wilhelm, but that was a different game and a different time. Anyway, Rivera has been the best closer in baseball for going on 15 years now. Oh, sure, there have been contenders to the throne. Billy Wagner had dominating seasons and Trevor Hoffman was great for a long time and Eric Gagne was the best there for a year or two and Joe Nathan had a terrific stretch and now that kid in Atlanta, Craig Kimbrel, is putting up some insane strikeout numbers.
But Rivera kept on ticking, throwing that singular, magnificent pitch. Cutter, cutter, cutter. I think my mom knows he throws a cutter.
"He's the best I've ever been around," former Yankees manager Joe Torre once said. "Not only the ability to pitch and perform under pressure, but the calm he puts over the clubhouse. He's very important for us because he's a special person."
And that's the other reason we love Mariano Rivera. He's the best in the world at his craft, yet remains humble and without ego. You can dislike the New York Yankees, but you can't dislike Mariano Rivera.
And that's why Thursday's news is so jarring. Rivera suffered a freak torn ACL during batting practice, hurting his knee while shagging balls during batting practice. If Yankees team doctors confirm the MRI, Rivera is likely out for the season; watching the Yankees without Rivera coming on in the ninth to protect a lead is like going to the Louvre only to have the Mona Lisa undergoing restoration. There has been talk that this will be the final season for Rivera, which means there is the possibility Mariano Rivera has thrown his final pitch.
Manager Joe Girardi confirmed the injury after the Yankees' loss in Kansas City. "He was in pain. … If that’s the report, that’s about as bad as it gets," Girardi said.
Bryan Hoch, Yankees writer for MLB.com tweeted, “Mariano Rivera, head bowed and teary-eyed, says he does not know if he will pitch again.”
Which means we have to go down this route. What if he is done, at least for this season?
Now ... as great as Rivera is, even the best in the world, the actual impact of losing him for a lengthy period of time would be pretty minimal. First, in David Robertson they have one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, a guy with a 0.93 ERA over the past two seasons and 118 strikeouts in 77.2 innings. Rafael Soriano, Cory Wade and Boone Logan give the Yankees a deep core of capable middle relievers and once Andy Pettitte joins the rotation, David Phelps or Phil Hughes would add another solid arm to the 'pen.
So, I'll state this delicately: Being the best closer in the world doesn't mean you're the most valuable player on the team. Here's another way of putting this. From 1997 through 2011, the Yankees won 97.2 percent of the games they led heading into the ninth inning. The Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that featured infamous closers such as Rich Loiselle, Mike Williams, Jose Mesa, Matt Capps and Octavio Dotel during that span, won 94.7 percent of games they led going into the ninth. The San Diego Padres, where Hoffman pitched for many of those years, won 96.7 percent of their games.
That doesn't mean Rivera isn't valuable; of course he is. Aside from his statistical dominance, there is the comfort level of having him sitting down in the bullpen, that calming influence like a little kid's stuffed animal. Maybe that can't be properly measured, and the first time Robertson blows a save or one of the other guys blows a lead in the eighth inning, fans and media and teammates may wonder: What if we had Mo?
But as David Cone said on the YES Network broadcast, "You never replace a Mariano Rivera; it's a huge blow. But the Yankees are dealing from strength, and one of their strengths is that bullpen."
In the end, we can disagree on what the loss of Rivera might mean to the Yankees. But I hope we all agree that we haven't seen Rivera throw his final pitch.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesBrandon Phillips, you are more flexible than most of us.Jose Altuve can win a batting title -- in 2012
May, 3, 2012
May 3
4:19
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Steve Mitchell/US PresswireJose Altuve is off to a great start for the Astros, hitting .358 through May 2.Until he steps to the plate, that is, and rings a base hit past their earlobe or stings a double into the gap or lofts a liner down the right-field line. He doesn't turn 22 for a few days, but Altuve is hitting .358. He's not a big home run threat, but he does have 11 extra-base hits. In other words, the kid can flat-out hit and I'm going to make a bold statement. He can win a batting title ... and maybe as soon as this season.
He's not good enough, you say? Hey, he hit .389 in the minors last season. Plus I like that he's showing a little more patience this season. He's not a big walker, but his walk rate in 57 games as a rookie last season was just 2.1 percent (five walks in 234 plate appearances). This year, it's up to 7.6 percent. He's dropped his percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone from 43.7 percent to 24.3 percent. So far, only Ichiro Suzuki has a higher overall contact percentage than Altuve. So when he swings, he makes contract. He's improving his pitch recognition. He's hitting .358.
He's too young or too inexperienced, you say? Well, Alex Rodriguez turned 21 years old in 1996 when he hit .358 to win the AL batting crown. Al Kaline won a batting title when he was 20. Rod Carew was 23 when he won his first title. Wade Boggs was older but in his first full season when he hit .361 in 1983 to win the AL crown. Don Mattingly's only batting championship came in his first full season. So it can be done.
It will likely take a mark in the .330 to .345 range. Six of the past seven NL batting leaders hit between .335 and .344 (the exception being Chipper Jones' .364 mark in 2008). Can Altuve do that? Am I nuts for thinking so? Am I nuts for suggesting he'll end up with a higher batting average than Albert Pujols at season's end? (See poll.)
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Stock Watch: Middlebrooks, Lynn, LaHair
May, 3, 2012
May 3
2:18
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Eric Karabell and I have a new segment we're calling SweetSpot Stock Watch, where we rationally discuss and occasionally argue about a few players. Today's edition: Red Sox prospect Will Middlebrooks, Cardinals starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Lohse, red-hot Bryan LaHair and Orioles pitcher Jake Arrieta, coming off his dominant effort against the Yankees on Thursday night. And don't forget to check out Eric's fantasy baseball blog on ESPN Insider!
What a day in baseball on Wednesday! Eric Karabell and myself could have done a two-hour Baseball Today podcast. Here are some highlights of a jam-packed show. Eric even tricked me into comparing Jose Altuve to Al Kaline and Alex Rodriguez. OK, maybe I did that to myself.
1. We discuss Jered Weaver's no-hitter, of course, and wonder how many more no-hitters we'll see this season.
2. We discuss that wild, improbable game in Atlanta between the Phillies and Braves. Are there reasons to be concerned about Roy Halladay?
3. That's only the tip of the iceberg of a crazy night -- bad calls, Jason Giambi's walk-off homer, Jake Arrieta dominating the Yankees and more.
4. We answer some emails about Mat Gamel's injury and other stuff.
5. Finally, we look ahead to Thursday's action and I declare that Jose Altuve is a batting title contender.
Check it all out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, and don't miss Friday's show with Mark Simon and awesome guests Jayson Stark and Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey.
1. We discuss Jered Weaver's no-hitter, of course, and wonder how many more no-hitters we'll see this season.
2. We discuss that wild, improbable game in Atlanta between the Phillies and Braves. Are there reasons to be concerned about Roy Halladay?
3. That's only the tip of the iceberg of a crazy night -- bad calls, Jason Giambi's walk-off homer, Jake Arrieta dominating the Yankees and more.
4. We answer some emails about Mat Gamel's injury and other stuff.
5. Finally, we look ahead to Thursday's action and I declare that Jose Altuve is a batting title contender.
Check it all out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, and don't miss Friday's show with Mark Simon and awesome guests Jayson Stark and Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey.
A season ago, San Francisco Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval fractured his right hamate bone in late April, an injury that cost him 41 games. Almost one year later, he's fractured his left hamate bone and will presumably miss a similar number of games.
SandovalIt's a crushing injury to the Giants, a team without an obvious replacement at third base, let alone one who can come close to matching Kung Fu Panda's production.
We're talking about one of the 10 best hitters in the National League. Sandoval didn't quite have enough plate appearances in 2011 to qualify for the leaderboards, but among those with 450 PAs, he ranked sixth in the NL in OPS+, 14th in wOBA and 11th in wRC+. Considering some of those ahead of him left the league (Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols) or were expected to regress (Lance Berkman, Michael Morse, Jose Reyes), Sandoval is one of the most valuable players in the NL. He was off to a .316/.375/.537 (AVG/OBP/SLG) start, with five home runs and 15 RBIs. The Giants' offense, last in the NL in runs scored in 2011, is ninth this season.
But there's the problem: Once you get past Sandoval and Buster Posey and Melky Cabrera, it thins out in a hurry. Brandon Belt hasn't homered in 44 at-bats, Angel Pagan has a .279 on-base percentage, Brandon Crawford is hitting .215 with a .234 OBP, and Ryan Theriot and Emmanuel Burriss have combined for one extra-base hit in 88 at-bats.
As for third base, Wednesday night the Giants inserted Theriot at second and moved Joaquin Arias from second to third. Burriss also played there later in the game. Arias is a 27-year-old infielder who last played in the majors in 2010. He hit a robust .232/.272/.353 at Triple-A Omaha last season. The fact that he's even on the big league roster tells how thin the Giants are; in fact, why a team would want four light-hitting middle infielders on their roster in Crawford, Theriot, Burriss and Arias is a bit confounding. Yes, blame the injury to Freddy Sanchez if you want, but it's still poor roster management.
So if Arias is the guy who gets more playing time, you're talking about a player who is probably below replacement-level. Sandoval's WAR a year ago was 6.1 -- in 117 games. (That total was helped by some excellent defensive metrics, which he wasn't replicating so far this year.) Still, if we consider him a six-win player and he misses a quarter of the season, we're talking about two to three wins in lost value, considering the likely production from Arias & Co. Aside from that, the complicating factor is how Sandoval returns from the injury. Last season, he did fine, hitting .315 after coming back. But there is no guarantee he won't have some minor ill effects this year.
I see this as a bigger blow than Evan Longoria's injury; at least the Rays could turn to a won't-kill-you platoon of Elliot Johnson and Jeff Keppinger. The Giants have a guy who couldn't hit Triple-A pitching a year ago.

We're talking about one of the 10 best hitters in the National League. Sandoval didn't quite have enough plate appearances in 2011 to qualify for the leaderboards, but among those with 450 PAs, he ranked sixth in the NL in OPS+, 14th in wOBA and 11th in wRC+. Considering some of those ahead of him left the league (Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols) or were expected to regress (Lance Berkman, Michael Morse, Jose Reyes), Sandoval is one of the most valuable players in the NL. He was off to a .316/.375/.537 (AVG/OBP/SLG) start, with five home runs and 15 RBIs. The Giants' offense, last in the NL in runs scored in 2011, is ninth this season.
But there's the problem: Once you get past Sandoval and Buster Posey and Melky Cabrera, it thins out in a hurry. Brandon Belt hasn't homered in 44 at-bats, Angel Pagan has a .279 on-base percentage, Brandon Crawford is hitting .215 with a .234 OBP, and Ryan Theriot and Emmanuel Burriss have combined for one extra-base hit in 88 at-bats.
As for third base, Wednesday night the Giants inserted Theriot at second and moved Joaquin Arias from second to third. Burriss also played there later in the game. Arias is a 27-year-old infielder who last played in the majors in 2010. He hit a robust .232/.272/.353 at Triple-A Omaha last season. The fact that he's even on the big league roster tells how thin the Giants are; in fact, why a team would want four light-hitting middle infielders on their roster in Crawford, Theriot, Burriss and Arias is a bit confounding. Yes, blame the injury to Freddy Sanchez if you want, but it's still poor roster management.
So if Arias is the guy who gets more playing time, you're talking about a player who is probably below replacement-level. Sandoval's WAR a year ago was 6.1 -- in 117 games. (That total was helped by some excellent defensive metrics, which he wasn't replicating so far this year.) Still, if we consider him a six-win player and he misses a quarter of the season, we're talking about two to three wins in lost value, considering the likely production from Arias & Co. Aside from that, the complicating factor is how Sandoval returns from the injury. Last season, he did fine, hitting .315 after coming back. But there is no guarantee he won't have some minor ill effects this year.
I see this as a bigger blow than Evan Longoria's injury; at least the Rays could turn to a won't-kill-you platoon of Elliot Johnson and Jeff Keppinger. The Giants have a guy who couldn't hit Triple-A pitching a year ago.
Welcome to the craziest day of the season
May, 3, 2012
May 3
12:18
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Baseball is awesome. Did we need to say anything else? Do we need to hire Terry Cashman to write a ballad about this day? Do we need to pen epic poems about Chipper Jones and Jered Weaver and Bryce Harper and the intentional walk?
Man, I need to catch my breath.
How do you sum up the wildest game of the season so far? I guess pretty simply: The Phillies, a team that scores runs with about the same frequency of a Serie A soccer team, totaled 13 runs ... in a game Roy Halladay started ... and lost.
The Phillies led 6-0, the Braves scored six off Halladay in the fifth (including a Brian McCann grand slam) and then took an 8-6 lead (the first time he's allowed eight runs in a game since Aug. 24, 2009). The Phillies surged back ahead 12-8, the Braves took a 13-12 lead with five runs in the bottom of the eighth (as Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon apparently isn't allowed to pitch more than one inning or three days in a row), the Phillies tied in the ninth on Shane Victorino's two-out infield single, and then ...
Well, then, Larry Wayne Jones stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 11th inning. He hammered a 2-2 slider from Brian Sanches down the right-field line, but it hooked a few feet line. I tweeted, "Dang, a Chipper walk-off would have been pretty cool on this wild day."
Two pitches later, he crushed a 3-2, 88-mph meatball over the center-field fence, watching the ball fly away into the Atlanta evening and flipping his bat in a dismissive swagger. "I may be 40 years old with creaky knees, but don't try and slip that mediocre slop by me," he seemed to say.
Braves 15, Phillies 13.
It was the 458th regular-season home run in his career. Few have felt sweeter, especially since the Braves had lost eight straight games to the Phillies.
"I wish everyone could experience that feeling right there," Jones said on postgame on-field TV interview, trying to catch his breath after enduring the mosh pit at home plate. "That game, without a doubt, takes the cake as far as my career goes. You figure with Halladay and [Tommy] Hanson, it's going to be a 2-1 game."
When Jones says he's never seen a game like it, you know what it was something amazing.
And here are a few more adventures from not just another Wednesday in early May:
One day in baseball. I say we do it again.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Joy R. Absalon/US PresswireAs Ian Desmond comes home after his game-winning walkoff shot, he was understandably pleased.
Man, I need to catch my breath.
How do you sum up the wildest game of the season so far? I guess pretty simply: The Phillies, a team that scores runs with about the same frequency of a Serie A soccer team, totaled 13 runs ... in a game Roy Halladay started ... and lost.
The Phillies led 6-0, the Braves scored six off Halladay in the fifth (including a Brian McCann grand slam) and then took an 8-6 lead (the first time he's allowed eight runs in a game since Aug. 24, 2009). The Phillies surged back ahead 12-8, the Braves took a 13-12 lead with five runs in the bottom of the eighth (as Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon apparently isn't allowed to pitch more than one inning or three days in a row), the Phillies tied in the ninth on Shane Victorino's two-out infield single, and then ...
Well, then, Larry Wayne Jones stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 11th inning. He hammered a 2-2 slider from Brian Sanches down the right-field line, but it hooked a few feet line. I tweeted, "Dang, a Chipper walk-off would have been pretty cool on this wild day."
Two pitches later, he crushed a 3-2, 88-mph meatball over the center-field fence, watching the ball fly away into the Atlanta evening and flipping his bat in a dismissive swagger. "I may be 40 years old with creaky knees, but don't try and slip that mediocre slop by me," he seemed to say.
Braves 15, Phillies 13.
It was the 458th regular-season home run in his career. Few have felt sweeter, especially since the Braves had lost eight straight games to the Phillies.
"I wish everyone could experience that feeling right there," Jones said on postgame on-field TV interview, trying to catch his breath after enduring the mosh pit at home plate. "That game, without a doubt, takes the cake as far as my career goes. You figure with Halladay and [Tommy] Hanson, it's going to be a 2-1 game."
When Jones says he's never seen a game like it, you know what it was something amazing.
And here are a few more adventures from not just another Wednesday in early May:
- Oh, yeah, as I was finishing this piece, Jered Weaver was flirting with a no-hitter through the sixth … seventh … into the eighth … and he did it. You know, Weaver is pretty good at baseball. The highlight: MLB Network cameras showed Weaver leaving the dugout in the eighth inning to use the bathroom. How do you risk a no-hitter by leaving the bench? As he said after the game, "I had to pee so bad."
- In an afternoon tilt at Coors Field, we saw the worst call of the season (Jerry Hairston Jr. was called out on this play) and Carlos Gonzalez homered twice off Clayton Kershaw (only the second time Kershaw has allowed two home runs to one player in a game, Adam Dunn having done so in 2010). But that stuff was merely a prelude to a wacky ninth inning. With two outs and a runner on first, Jim Tracy elected to intentionally walk Matt Kemp to pitch to Dee Gordon. You can debate the merits of the decision -- Kemp's home run rate was three times that of Gordon's extra-base hit rate, and extreme fly ball pitcher Rafael Betancourt was on the mound -- but Gordon hit a soft liner into right-center. Third-base coach Tim Wallach sent Kemp, who should have been thrown out by 10 feet, but Troy Tulowitzki biffed the relay with a wormburner throw home. Game tied and Tracy looked like the goat until the ancient Jason Giambi hit a three-run homer off Scott Elbert in the bottom of the ninth. How awesome is that the Giambino is still swatting game-winning home runs at age 41?
- The Nationals ended a five-game losing streak in dramatic, walk-off fashion as well. Wunderkind Harper -- who had just missed his first major league homer earlier in the game with a double off the top of the wall in right-center -- led off the bottom of the ninth with another double to center, his third hit of the game. With Nationals fans dreaming delirious dreams of Harper's future, J.J. Putz then struck out Wilson Ramos and Rick Ankiel. But Ian Desmond blasted a 1-1, 93-mph fastball over the fence in left-center. Only one of the best wins in Nationals' history.
- The Royals looked like they were going to beat Justin Verlander, leading 2-0 in the eighth, only to have Brennan Boesch tie the game with a two-run homer. So they settled for a victory off Joaquin Benoit in the ninth, the go-ahead run scoring on Chris Getz's two-out infield single.
- Jake Arrieta threw eight shutout innings against the Yankees in one of the best outings of the year for a pitcher: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB 9 SO. The Orioles took two of three in the series, they're 16-9, and Baltimore fans are starting to believe.
- Jeff Suppan made his first major league start since 2010 and tossed five shutout innings as the Padres blanked the Brewers 5-0.
- Johnny Damon played his first game for the Indians, and while he went 0-for-3 with a walk, having Damon back in the bigs is certainly worthy of a round of applause.
- Carlos Beltran had seven RBIs through three innings and for a time we could conjure up scenarios where he would drive in 10 ... 11 ... maybe even a record-tying 12 runs.
- Lost in the excitement of Chipper's dramatic walk-off homer, Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz also had seven RBIs.
One day in baseball. I say we do it again.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Joy R. Absalon/US PresswireAs Ian Desmond comes home after his game-winning walkoff shot, he was understandably pleased.Bryan LaHair: The best story of the season
May, 2, 2012
May 2
11:22
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Jeff Curry/US PresswireBryan LaHair is gving Cub fans a reason to pay attention as he leads the club in home runs and RBI.Most of those guys are a click short on the radar gun or a step too slow in the field or a few feet short with their power. Maybe they have a bad body or a loop in their swing that front offices believe will be exposed against better pitching. Some are one injury on the major league roster from getting an opportunity, if only for a few weeks. Many never get it, relegated to the dreaded label of Four-A player, maybe good enough to get a cup of coffee here and there, but not good enough to ever earn a consistent major league paycheck.
LaHair was a 39th-round draft pick by the Seattle Mariners in 2002, out of St. Petersburg College in Florida -- a school that produced former Mets third baseman Howard Johnson (and Doors frontman Jim Morrison). The 39th round is non-prospect territory, roster filler for low-level minor league squads. The deck was stacked against LaHair from the day he was drafted. He first put himself on the prospect radar by hitting .310 with 22 homers at Class A Inland Empire in 2005. But everybody hits in the California League. The next season, LaHair hit .309 with 16 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A.
Now he was a prospect. "LaHair offers Sean Casey-like production as a first baseman and may have even more power," wrote Baseball America, which named him Seattle's No. 16 prospect prior to 2007. "He uses the entire field and has good plate coverage. ... LaHair isn't very athletic and is limited to first base. He has below-average defensive speed and defensive skills."
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Howard Smith/US PresswireBryan LaHair is taking advantage of his playing time after toiling in the minors for almost a decade.
Howard Smith/US PresswireBryan LaHair is taking advantage of his playing time after toiling in the minors for almost a decade.He spent all of 2009 in Tacoma again and hit 26 home runs but the Mariners never called him up. He signed with the Cubs as a free agent and spent all of 2010 at Iowa, now 27 years old and turning into a Triple-A lifer.
There have been other hitters with that label who got a chance. Growing up in Seattle, one of my favorite players was Ken Phelps. He was a local product who put up big numbers with Montreal's Triple-A Wichita team in 1982, hitting .333 with 46 home runs. Can't hit a major league fastball, they said. And the Expos had an aging Al Oliver at first base. The Mariners purchased Phelps from Montreal, and he showed he could hit, batting .249/.392/.521 over six years with Seattle, which famously then flipped him to the Yankees for Jay Buhner.
Matt Stairs was a Four-A hitter, they said. Too short. Bad body. No position. The A's finally gave him a regular job when he was 29. He played until he was 43. Kevin Millar, Brian Daubach, Jack Cust. All had the label. Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz didn't get 100 games in a major league season until he was 28.
So LaHair tore it up in Iowa in 2011, crushing away with a .331/.405/.664 line. Thirty-eight bombs. This wasn't Albuquerque or Reno or Las Vegas. The numbers had some legitimacy in them, if you're the type to believe in numbers. The Cubs called him up in September. He played winter ball. He totaled 55 home runs between the three stops. The Cubs, rebuilding from bottom up, handed him their first-base job. Temporarily, of course, since they also traded for Padres first-base prospect Anthony Rizzo.
"There's no sentiment involved," Cubs president Theo Epstein told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick in spring training about giving LaHair the job. "It's not a matter of whether someone deserves a chance or not. It's a matter of whether someone can help the Cubs.
"There are a lot of good players who perform all the way through the minor leagues who fail in limited opportunities in the big leagues and never get a longer look. When those players eventually do get a longer look, they have success. I think it benefits us to see what he can do. We think he'll hit big league pitching, so we're going to find out."
See what he can do.
Jerry finished his story with this line: Now it's up to him to determine how long he stays.
LaHair is insanely hot right now. He homered again Wednesday, his sixth of the season, and he's batting .381/.459/.794, giving Cubs fans one reason to keep paying attention to a bad team. Dale Sveum is platooning him, so he doesn't have enough plate appearances to qualify for the leaderboards, but his 1.253 OPS would rank second only to Matt Kemp.
"I think for me I just stay consistent with each at-bat," LaHair told ESPN Chicago's Doug Padilla a couple of days ago. "I don’t let any one at-bat overwhelm me. I go pitch to pitch and all I try to do is to get good pitches to hit and hit them hard every at-bat. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t but if I’m consistent doing that I’ll be all right."
We could delve into the numbers and explain that LaHair is striking out a lot, that his average on balls in play is crazy ridiculous -- .600 entering Wednesday's game (he went 1-for-4 with a home run and no strikeouts, so 0-for-3 on balls in play) -- that there's no way he'll keep this up and so on and so on.
Sure, we could do that. But for now let's enjoy a lifer getting his chance to shine.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.












