If Andy Pettitte wins tonight, a lot of people are going to say a lot of nice things about him. As Sean Forman suggests, however -- and I'm snipping all the relevant analysis, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't read it -- let's not go nuts:
I knew that Mark Langston was tough on runners. Steve Carlton and Bill Lee, though? It's amazing the stuff you can learn if you actually look stuff up.
The Pettitte-for-Cooperstown talk started popping up a year or two ago, and I was generally dismissive. As Sean details -- I've just given you a small bit of his analysis -- Pettitte simply hasn't done many of the things that Hall of Fame pitchers are supposed to do.
You can get into the Hall of Fame with a (relatively) pedestrian ERA if you win 300 games; that's what Don Sutton did.
You get even get into the Hall of Fame with a (relatively) pedestrian ERA if you win only 225 games, but come up big in the postseason and pitch brilliantly for a few seasons; that's what Catfish Hunter did.
But Pettitte's got the pedestrian ERA, (roughly) 225 wins, zero top-three Cy Young finishes, and a postseason ledger that falls almost exactly in line with his regular-season performance. The only brilliant thing about Pettitte's career is his .629 winning percentage ... and as Sean points out, Pettitte has usually been blessed with an incredibly potent offense on his side (not to mention an incredibly effective closer).
As I've written before, we shouldn't dismiss Pettitte's chances of winning 300 games. But despite that great offense and that great closer, he's won only 14 games in each of the last two seasons. If he wins 14 games in each of the next five seasons -- he would turn 42 in that fifth season -- he'll be sitting on 299 wins. That's not impossible, but the problem is that if he winds up with any other team, those 14's start turning into 11's and 12's (at best). We shouldn't expect his ERA to get better, either.
Realistically, we're probably three years away from Pettitte-for-Cooperstown talk as being anything but rank speculation. And that goes double when you remember that some Hall of Fame voters have flat-out said they won't vote for any known steroid user.
- Recently, the blogosphere and the mainstream news media have begun speculating on Pettitte’s Hall of Fame chances.
But while his supporters will cite his won-lost totals and record number of victories in the postseason, the deeper you look at his numbers, the less convincing his case becomes.
--snip--
Barring five more strong seasons and a run at 300 wins, I find myself opposing Andy Pettitte’s Hall of Fame candidacy. I’ll leave you with one parting shot. Pettitte is definitely a Hall of Famer at picking off runners. If we estimate runners on first with singles plus walks and hit-by-pitch, Pettitte has the fourth-best pickoff rate (since 1954) at 3.4 percent of runners on first, just behind Steve Carlton, Bill Lee and Mark Langston.
I knew that Mark Langston was tough on runners. Steve Carlton and Bill Lee, though? It's amazing the stuff you can learn if you actually look stuff up.
The Pettitte-for-Cooperstown talk started popping up a year or two ago, and I was generally dismissive. As Sean details -- I've just given you a small bit of his analysis -- Pettitte simply hasn't done many of the things that Hall of Fame pitchers are supposed to do.
You can get into the Hall of Fame with a (relatively) pedestrian ERA if you win 300 games; that's what Don Sutton did.
You get even get into the Hall of Fame with a (relatively) pedestrian ERA if you win only 225 games, but come up big in the postseason and pitch brilliantly for a few seasons; that's what Catfish Hunter did.
But Pettitte's got the pedestrian ERA, (roughly) 225 wins, zero top-three Cy Young finishes, and a postseason ledger that falls almost exactly in line with his regular-season performance. The only brilliant thing about Pettitte's career is his .629 winning percentage ... and as Sean points out, Pettitte has usually been blessed with an incredibly potent offense on his side (not to mention an incredibly effective closer).
As I've written before, we shouldn't dismiss Pettitte's chances of winning 300 games. But despite that great offense and that great closer, he's won only 14 games in each of the last two seasons. If he wins 14 games in each of the next five seasons -- he would turn 42 in that fifth season -- he'll be sitting on 299 wins. That's not impossible, but the problem is that if he winds up with any other team, those 14's start turning into 11's and 12's (at best). We shouldn't expect his ERA to get better, either.
Realistically, we're probably three years away from Pettitte-for-Cooperstown talk as being anything but rank speculation. And that goes double when you remember that some Hall of Fame voters have flat-out said they won't vote for any known steroid user.
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ABOUT THIS BLOG
Rob Neyer
Neyer is a senior writer at ESPN.com. He began his career with legendary baseball author (and now Red Sox executive) Bill James, then joined Stats Inc. and wrote about MLB, the NFL and the NBA. Neyer joined ESPN.com in 1996, and it's believed that he's written more words for the site than anybody.
Neyer moved to Kansas City in 1976, just in time for the Royals' first division title, and fell in love almost immediately. He attended the University of Kansas the same four years as Danny Manning, and is now happy to wait another 20 years for the Jayhawks' next championship.
