First-half surprise stars

July, 9, 2011
7/09/11
2:00
PM ET
Everyone knows who the All-Stars are, but what about the players who have, for the right reasons or wrong ones, completely surprised us? The 2011 season has no shortage of surprise players, but these are the ones we think stand out the most...

C Alex Avila, Tigers
Avila leads all AL catchers in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, weighted on base average (wOBA) by 44 points, weighted runs created plus (wRC+), and wins above replacement. His hot April (.382 wOBA) left many wondering if he could keep it up, but his .285/.376/.513 line since then has certainly answered that. Not bad for a guy who only managed a .297 wOBA (80 wRC+) while splitting time with Gerald Laird a year ago.

1B: Michael Morse, Nationals
Morse had only 685 total plate appearances from 2005 through 2010, and he gets the nod here for his wildly streaky season so far. In 79 April at-bats, he produced a dreadful .211/.253/.268. Since then, however, he has been a monster and has hit.331/.386/.641. His overall wOBA of .377 and wRC+ of 139 put him in the actual All-Star discussion.

2B: Dan Uggla, Braves
In past years, Uggla had been one of the better second basemen in the game because of his offense. This year, Uggla is one of the worst regular players in the game, with a .262 wOBA and 62 wRC+. His on-base percentage is an atrocious .250, and his -0.5 WAR is better than only nine qualified players in all of baseball.

SS: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
From 2005 through 2010, Hanley Ramirez was easily the best shortstop in the game. In 2011, he's struggled to stay above replacement level. As recently as June 21 he was hitting just .200/.298/.295, unacceptable for an everyday player. He’s showing signs of turning it around, but by wins above replacement, he's still worse than .270 OBP Alex Gonzalez, Emilio Bonifacio, Ronny Cedeno, and noodle bat Alcides Escobar.

3B: Third basemen as a whole have been terrible. Placido Polanco has a .346 slugging percentage and .072 IsoP, and still isn't undeserving of being the NL starting third baseman at the All-Star Game because the rest have been so bad. We’ll mention Casey McGehee and his .258 wOBA. And Chone Figgins is the worst of all, with a .212 wOBA. That's a 30 wRC+. Thirty! Alex Rodriguez isn't even slugging .500 this year so far, and he's pretty easily the best of all of them.

DH Adam Dunn, White Sox
When Dunn signed with the White Sox, it seemed likely he'd thrive in the American League as a DH. Instead, he's been terrible, putting up a line of .166/.302/.308, a .282 wOBA and 71 wRC+. By wins above replacement, among qualified players, he's been the third least-valuable player in all of baseball. Dunn has had a pronounced righty/lefty split in his career, but this year it has reached truly ridiculous levels -- in 70 ABs against left-handed pitchers, he's slugging .035.

OF Lance Berkman, Cardinals
In 2010, Berkman’s power took a serious slip. He only slugged .413 all year, including just .349 with the Yankees. At the age of 34, it was safe to assume this was a genuine decline. Berkman signed a one-year deal with the Cardinals in the offseason, and he got off to an insane start, hitting .393/.455/.753 in April, with eight home runs in 99 PA. His 171 wRC+ is sixth in baseball.

OF Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
Ichiro has been a model of consistency since crossing the Pacific. Every year, he would give you 200 hits, a roughly .330 batting average, and an All-Star appearance. On April 30th, he was hitting his standard .328/.380/.378 with a .354 wOBA. Since then he is hitting just .247/.290/.305, leaving him with a .294 wOBA for the year and without a ticket to the All-Star game for the first time.

P Ryan Vogelsong, Giants
Vogelsong, a pitcher with a career 5.65 ERA in the majors prior to 2007 and unimpressive stints in Japan and the minors, is now headed to the All-Star Game with a 2.13 ERA and career-best 7.3 K/9. He's not the only reason the Giants are in first place, but he is certainly one of the bigger ones. Probably the single most unlikely story in all of baseball this year.

P Zack Greinke, Brewers
Greinke has a 89/14 K/BB ratio in 68.1 innings, which would set new career bests in K/9, BB/9, and K/BB, even better than his tremendous Cy Young season in 2009. His 2.16 xFIP leads the majors (min. 60 innings) by a decent margin and if he qualifies for rate stats it would be the lowest mark since the statistic was introduced in 2002. So why is he here? Zack Greinke has a 5.66 ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is a new addition to the SweetSpot network comprised of the writing team of Bex, Jordan and Rebecca.

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