Tuesday it was Fred McGriff, so naturally our next Hall of Fame candidate is Mark McGwire.

Why naturally? Be patient, my friends. All shall be revealed. First, let's stick to some easily verifiable facts ...

McGwire was, at his best, a devastating hitter; the sort of hitter that Jim Rice's admirers imagine Rice was. In Rice's best season, his adjusted OPS was 157. McGwire topped that figure in six seasons. Until Barry Bonds decided to bulk up (ahem), McGwire really was the game's most feared hitter.

When he could actually play, that is. McGwire was, as much as any superstar of the last 30 years, often unable to answer the bell. In his first six seasons in the majors, McGwire did average 150 games per season. After that, he played more than 130 games in only three seasons (in those three seasons, he hit 187 home runs).

McGwire's 7,660 career plate appearances obviously aren't a lot for a Hall of Fame first baseman. There are 14 20th-century first basemen in the Hall of Fame, and only five of them played less than McGwire: Johnny Mize (7371 plate appearances), Bill Terry (7111), George Kelly (6565), Hank Greenberg (6096) and Frank Chance (4537).

Considering each of those five:

* Mize was a truly great hitter who missed three seasons during World War II;

* Terry was a high-average hitter in an era of high-average hitters, probably shouldn't be in the Hall;

* Kelly was an awful selection, one of many made by the Veterans Committee in the early 1970s;

* Greenberg was a truly great hitter who missed three-and-a-half seasons during World War II; and

* Chance was a silly choice, enshrined along with teammates Joe Tinker and Johnny Evers.

If not for World War II, Greenberg probably would have finished his career with roughly the same playing time as McGwire. Like McGwire, Greenberg suffered from the occasional serious injury. Like McGwire, Greenberg retired while still relatively young. Like McGwire, Greenberg was not much of a first baseman, or fleet afoot. Greenberg led his league in home runs four times, and so did McGwire. They finished their careers with nearly the same adjusted OPS's: 158 for Greenberg, 162 for McGwire.

Oh, and one more thing: both were huge, immensely strong right-handed hitters.

If you think Hank Greenberg was a Hall of Fame hitter, it's hard to argue that Mark McGwire was not.

Ah, but Hank Greenberg (probably) never used illegal drugs to get ahead, and Hank Greenberg never embarrassed himself in a Congressional hearing. We know exactly why McGwire has failed to clear even 25 percent in his three previous appearances on the BBWAA's Hall of Fame ballot.

Ken Davidoff has been among the 75 percent who've not been voting for McGwire. This year, Davidoff has changed his mind. Money quote:

Every era has its taint, whether it's gamblers, steroids, racism or something less pernicious such as ballpark dimensions. Our job is to sift through the nonsense, take the emotion out of the conversation and determine the best players of the era.

A McGwire induction in Cooperstown wouldn't be the most uplifting or heart-wrenching. That's all right. Life is complicated. We can discuss what happened and what it means.

But to execute selective jurisprudence based on rules that never existed no longer makes sense to me.

But it goes even beyond that, doesn't it? There have been, for many years, rules prohibiting corked bats and doctored baseballs, but we know there are players in the Hall of Fame who happily violated those rules. We also know that many, and perhaps most of the great players of the 1970s routinely and illegally ingested stimulants with the express purpose of enhancing their performance.

For me, this is the heart of the matter. Like steroids, stimulants in the 1970s (and afterward) were used as performance enhancers. Like steroids, stimulants were generally against the law, but willfully ignored by the Lords of Baseball. I would absolutely love for someone to explain to me the difference between what Mark McGwire (allegedly) did, and what the superstars of the 1960s and '70s were doing.

When someone can do that, I'll be happy to reconsider my opinion of Mark McGwire's Hall of Fame candidacy. Until then, I suspect that he'll have my vote when I've got one.