How are playoff rotations shaping up?

September, 28, 2011
9/28/11
12:43
PM ET
Some managers may be waiting to see who their first-round opponent will be (the No. 2 seeds in both leagues are still up for grabs), but here's my best guess on how the rotations will line up. Remember, the format is a little different this year, as both series in each league will play the same schedule, with days off after Game 2 and Game 4, meaning the Game 1 starter could pitch Game 4 on three days' rest (and the Game 2 starter could start Game 5 on four days' rest).

Philadelphia Phillies
1. Roy Halladay
2. Cliff Lee
3. Cole Hamels
4. Roy Oswalt

I think the only question here is if Charlie Manuel would start Halladay on three days' rest if the Phillies trail their series 2 games to 1. He's never done it with the Phillies and didn't do it in last year's NLCS when the Phillies were down 2 games to 1, so I don't think Manuel will change his philosophy now.

Milwaukee Brewers
1. Yovani Gallardo
2. Shaun Marcum
3. Zack Greinke
4. Randy Wolf

With the Brewers trying to clinch the No. 2 seed (not insignificant for them, considering their 56-24 home record is best in the majors), Greinke will start the season finale. Now, it's possible Ron Roenicke will only pitch him a few innings so he'll be ready for Game 2 of the playoffs -- on three days' rest -- but I'm guessing the Brewers want home field and will end up letting Greinke go deeper in the game, thus pushing Marcum to the No. 2 slot. Of concern is that Marcum has been hit hard in three of his past four starts.

Arizona Diamondbacks
1. Ian Kennedy
2. Daniel Hudson
3. Joe Saunders
4. Josh Collmenter

If Arizona wins its final game and Milwaukee loses, the D-backs get the No. 2 seed by virtue of winning the season series, 4 to 3. If that happens, they'll end up playing the Braves, if Atlanta wins the wild card, or the Brewers, if St. Louis wins the wild card. They could end up playing the Phillies if the Braves win the wild card and the Brewers clinch the No. 2 seed. Kirk Gibson would also face the decision of using Kennedy on three days' rest instead of the rookie Collmenter. Like most pitchers today, Kennedy has never done that in his career.

New York Yankees
1. CC Sabathia
2. Ivan Nova
3. Freddy Garcia

Joe Girardi still hasn't named his playoff rotation, but while we can assume Nova will get the Game 2 nod, the third game could go to Garcia, A.J. Burnett or Bartolo Colon, although Colon's recent poor efforts have probably taken him out of the running. Reports from beat writers seem to indicate Garcia is more likely than Burnett to draw the start, which probably leaves Burnett off the playoff roster (he could return for the ALCS if the Yankees advance). Sabathia is clearly the starter most likely to go on three days' rest in the Division Series -- Girardi started him twice on short rest in the 2009 postseason -- and I would expect Girardi to use him in Game 4, regardless of the series situation.

Texas Rangers
1. C.J. Wilson
2. Derek Holland
3. Colby Lewis
4. Matt Harrison

Ron Washington has said he'll wait to announce the Rangers' postseason rotation until he sees their first-round opponent. Since Lewis started Tuesday and Harrison started Wednesday, it appears he's lining them up in that order. Lewis has a 3.45 ERA on the road, 5.54 ERA at home (where he's allowed 22 home runs in 92.2 innings), so if the Rangers hold on to the No. 2 seed, that means Lewis would be starting Game 3 on the road against the wild-card team. If Texas ends up playing Boston, it's certainly possible Harrison could be moved up to the No. 3 spot to face Boston's lefty-heavy lineup earlier in the series. Alexi Ogando appears headed to the bullpen.

Detroit Tigers
1. Justin Verlander
2. Doug Fister
3. Max Scherzer
4. Rick Porcello

Jim Leyland has stated that Verlander won't start Game 4 -- regardless of series situation -- although that's easier to say until the situation arises. The guy to watch is Fister, who has been dominant: Since Aug. 20, he's 7-0 in seven starts (and one relief appearance) with a 0.65 ERA and a 52/4 SO/BB ratio.

As for the wild-card teams, the rotations would certainly be dependent upon if there are any tiebreaker games. If all four teams win tonight, the likely tiebreaker starters would be: Jeff Niemann for Tampa Bay, Tim Wakefield or John Lackey for Boston (both would be starting on three days' rest), Brandon Beachy for Atlanta and Kyle Lohse for St. Louis.

David Schoenfield | email

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