Nick Piecoro reports the Diamondbacks and Mark Reynolds might be working on a contract extension, and Piecoro comes up with some reasonable numbers:

It seems reasonable to forecast him to make $500,000 in 2010, $6.5 million in 2011 and, say, $9 million in 2012, a total of $16 million.When doing long-term, pre-arbitration deals, players give a discount for the security of the guaranteed money, so how about a three-year deal in the $14 million-$15 million range?

It would make sense for the Diamondbacks because they would be protecting themselves financially against Reynolds hitting 40 home runs in each of the next two years and having to pay through the nose in arbitration.

It would make sense for Reynolds because, as a 16th-round draft pick, he has yet to get that set-for-life deal and he can look at Conor Jackson for proof that unexpected things can get you off-track. Plus, if Reynolds does continue to post 40-homer seasons, he still has 2013 to cash in via arbitration and then could really make the big bucks as a free agent after that season.

As Craig points out, Reynolds is a grown man: "He's a great player, but he's old for a guy who still hasn't reached arbitration -- he turns 27 this season -- so he's never going to have a chance at a shoot-the-moon free agency."

He'll be almost 30 when he's eligible for free agency, and we've seen what teams these days think about sub-superstars in their early 30s. And make no mistake: Reynolds is merely a star. Yes, he did superstar-like things last year. But that was the first time, and there's a decent chance he won't do them again. Also, in two or three years he's probably going to be marginal as a third baseman, and will wind up at first. In other words, he's exactly the sort of player you employ while he's (relatively) cheap and quite good, after which you let someone else pay the freight for his decline years.