Blue Jays new favorite in Vegas

December, 20, 2012
12/20/12
11:25
AM ET
After the R.A. Dickey trade, the Blue Jays are the new favorite to win the 2013 World Series, at least according to the oddsmakers at Bovada.lv:

Toronto Blue Jays -- 15/2
Los Angeles Angels -- 17/2
Los Angeles Dodgers -- 17/2
Washington Nationals -- 9/1
Detroit Tigers -- 10/1
Cincinnati Reds -- 12/1
Texas Rangers -- 12/1
New York Yankees -- 14/1
Atlanta Braves -- 16/1
Philadelphia Phillies -- 16/1
San Francisco Giants -- 16/1
Tampa Bay Rays -- 22/1
Boston Red Sox -- 25/1
St. Louis Cardinals -- 25/1
Oakland Athletics -- 30/1
Milwaukee Brewers -- 35/1
Baltimore Orioles -- 40/1
Chicago White Sox -- 40/1
Arizona Diamondbacks -- 45/1
Kansas City Royals -- 50/1
Pittsburgh Pirates -- 50/1
Cleveland Indians -- 75/1
Minnesota Twins -- 75/1
New York Mets -- 75/1
Seattle Mariners -- 75/1
Chicago Cubs -- 100/1
Colorado Rockies -- 100/1
Miami Marlins -- 100/1
San Diego Padres -- 100/1
Houston Astros -- 200/1

Hey ... Vegas kind of agrees with me on the Giants. Had to point that out!

Some other odds:

World Series odds
Blue Jays before acquiring R.A. Dickey -- 12-1
Blue Jays after acquiring R.A. Dickey -- 15-2

Odds to win the AL East
Blue Jays -- 3/2
Yankees -- 19/10
Rays -- 5/1
Red Sox -- 11/2
Orioles -- 10/1

Wins for Blue Jays
Over/Under -- 92 1/2

Will the Blue Jays make the playoffs?
Yes: -120
No: -120

Wins for R.A. Dickey
Over/under -- 16 1/2

ERA for R.A. Dickey
Over/under -- 3.10

One question about Dickey: How will he do inside a dome? Dickey has pitched just once in a dome in his three seasons with the Mets, firing a one-hit shutout in Tampa Bay with 12 strikeouts. Jon Shepherd looks at the recent great knuckleballers to see how they fared. (Good news for Blue Jays, fans.)

Are the Jays really the team to beat? One quick method to estimate how much they have to improve is to look at their runs scored and allowed figures from 2012 and then see what they'll have to do to win 93 games.

In 2012, they scored 716 runs and allowed 784, which translates to a 74-88 record by our trusty Pythagorean method (the Jays actually won 73 games). If we get the Blue Jays up to 786 runs scored (plus 70 runs) and down to 664 runs allowed (minus 120 runs), we get the numbers of a 93-win team. In 2012, the Rangers led the AL with 808 runs while that 664 total would have ranked fourth. Basically, those are about the totals of the Yankees -- 804 and 668 -- and the Yankees won 95 games.

David Schoenfield | email

SweetSpot blogger

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