Tigers World Series favorites entering May

May, 1, 2014
May 1
From Bovada.lv, updated odds to win the World Series:

Tigers: 13/2
Dodgers: 15/2
Yankees: 10/1
Cardinals: 10/1
Braves: 11/1
Nationals: 11/1
A's: 12/1
Red Sox: 14/1
Brewers: 14/1
Giants: 14/1

Those are the top 10. The biggest drops from March 31 belong to the Phillies (33/1 to 75/1), Pirates (28/1 to 50/1) and Mariners (33/1 to 50/1).

Of course, those are betting odds, which are different from sabermetric projections. The Yankees have better odds of winning here because more bets are placed on them. The numbers guys don't think the Yankees are near that good.

According to FanGraphs' playoff odds, which factor in current results and season-long projections, the top 10 teams with the best chance of winning the World Series:

Tigers: 15.3 percent
Dodgers: 11.0 percent
A's: 10.7 percent
Red Sox: 8.8 percent
Nationals: 8.8 percent
Cardinals: 6.4 percent
Braves: 5.5 percent
Giants: 5.0 percent
Angels: 4.7 percent
Rangers: 3.8 percent

So the two sources do agree on the Tigers. The Brewers are at 3.0 percent with a projected final record of 86-76. FanGraphs isn't completely buying into their hot start, calcuating a rest-of-season winning percentage of .491. What do you think?

David Schoenfield | email

SweetSpot blogger



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