More questions about Joba

July, 11, 2009
Jul 11
4:31
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By Rob Neyer
After Joba Chamberlain's shaky start last night -- yes, another one -- a lot of people are asking a lot of questions; Tyler Kepner, for one.

And for another, Pete Abraham:

Chamberlain
    According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Joba Chamberlain's 10 decisions (7-3) through his first 29 career starts are the fewest in Major League history. I'm not sure how to interpret that. But there you go.

    As to what counts, Joba has one victory since June 1 and a 5.05 ERA. "It's frustrating. I'm letting my teammates down. It's kind of embarrassing, too,” he said. "At the end of the day, we have the second half (of the season) to get better. You can't change the past.”

    --snip--

    I'm also getting a sense that his teammates are tired of the "well, I threw the ball pretty well” stuff and the flood of Nuke LaLoosh cliches. The Yankees are about accountability and results, not trying hard. Anybody can try hard.

    "You have to work your tail off,” Chamberlain said. "But the sun will come out tomorrow. I'll be the same person I was before.”

    Well, the sun will come in Scranton, too. At some point the Yankees can't let a starter go five innings every time.

Heh. The sun will come out in Scranton, too. Well played, sir.

Joba's started 17 games this season. Here's a breakdown of how deep in the game he's gone in each:

0-1 innings: 1
1-3 innings: 1
4-5 innings: 7
6-8 innings: 8

In nearly half his starts, Joba's gone at least six innings. Granted, he's failed to pitch more than 5-1/3 innings in each of his last three starts. But we're yet at the point of saying that he's a five-inning pitcher. Which isn't to say there's nothing to worry about. Simply put, Chamberlain's throwing too many pitches per inning and walking too many batters. One might think that a seven-man bullpen would allow for a five-inning starter, but that just doesn't seem to be the case. Not for long, anyway.

WasWatching's Steve Lombardi says the solution is simple: get Joba out of the rotation, because he's just not effective as a starter when he gets only four days of rest. Lombardi's got stats to back him up; Joba's strikeout-to-walk ratio is roughly twice as good when he's got five days of rest than when he's got four.

I do think we're running into a sample-size problem, though. We're talking about only 15 starts this season (the other two came with more than five days rest). Fifteen games just isn't a lot. One of those normal-rest starts lasted just two-thirds of an inning (because of an injury). He started again five days later -- again, on "normal" rest -- and walked four Rangers in four innings. Was the problem not enough rest? Was he still a little gimpy? Or did he just make a few unfortunate pitches?

Young pitchers don't come with guarantees. The possibility's always existed, that Joba Chamberlain wouldn't be able to withstand the every-five-days rigor of throwing -- or trying to throw -- six or seven innings against the most talented hitters on the planet.

You have to find out, though. If you have a pitcher who might be able to do that, you have to find out. To this point, nobody's found anything out yet. No, the early returns aren't good (though it's probably worth mentioning that the Yankees are 11-6 in Joba's starts this season). But it's just too early to give up. Particularly considering that with Chien-Ming Wang back on the DL, the Yankees are already down a starter.

Patience, my Bronxian friends. Patience.

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