Top Rookie of the Year candidates

April, 16, 2009
Apr 16
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By Rob Neyer
Tim Dierkes has lists of Rookie of the Year candidates who might make your head swim: That's a lot of candidates. Too many to zip through here. Oddly, though -- or maybe not so oddly -- my choice for National League Rookie of the Year doesn't show up. Somehow Jason Motte, who opened this season as the Cardinals' closer, didn't make Dierkes' list. Then again, maybe Dierkes isn't particularly impressed by Motte's 9.00 ERA so far, or by his grandly round total of zero saves so far. After his first two outings -- in which Motte faced 11 batters and gave up six hits -- he was demoted to middle relief for a couple of games, and in his last outing did close out a win with a perfect ninth inning ... but the Cardinals were ahead by five runs when he entered the game.

It's early, though. Motte struck out 110 hitters in 67 Triple-A innings last year -- plus another 16 in 11 innings after joining the big club -- and I suspect that he'll be fine. Whether he's a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate, though, is up to Tony La Russa. Motte won't have a shot at the award if he doesn't rack up at least 20 or 25 saves, and he can't do that without the manager's help.

See, to be Rookie of the Year it's not enough to have the ability. You also need the opportunity. And a fair bit of luck helps, too.

In the American League, my choice was (and is) Texas shortstop Elvis Andrus. I'm not wild about his ability to post big stats at 20, but I like his opportunity -- the Rangers moved Michael Young to third base to make room for Andrus -- and Rookie of the Year voters like counting stats rather than percentages, anyway. Obviously, Matt Wieters and David Price would have been overwhelming co-favorites in the AL if they'd opened the season with jobs. But they didn't, and it's not at all clear when they will have jobs in the majors.

And the rest of those guys? Take your pick. I'm sticking with Andrus until he loses his job or Wieters gets one (but it'll have to be soon).

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