The two sides of Adam Dunn

September, 29, 2009
Sep 29
6:47
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By Rob Neyer
Beyond the Boxscore's Walter Fulbright reveals the two sides of Adam Dunn:
  Dunn
    It's weird to remember, but Adam Dunn was once highly prized as a prospect as much for his athleticism as his perhaps patient to a fault batting eye and prodigious power. It's a world away from when the Mariners' insistence of his inclusion in the Ken Griffey Jr. trade almost sunk that deal. But not necessarily in a bad way.

    Considering their eventual haul in that trade: Brett Tomko, Mike Cameron, Antonio Perez and Jake Meyer, maybe Seattle should have stuck to their guns. But the 235 pound University of Texas backup quarterback became perhaps the most polarizing player in baseball ... and by almost nothing of his own doing. No firecrackers or water bottles thrown into the stands, no notable tirades, no frustrating nagging injuries, no media meltdowns.

    --snip--

    But 235 pounds (even a trim, streamlined one, as he was) is relatively heavy for a baseball player. Now at over 300 (as constant rumors, as well as basic evalutation by the naked eye have put him), he's still a pretty good athlete - if in the Nationals are planning on fielding a scrimmage football team for the fall. His top speed still grades out at about league average (it was once well above it in his salad days). But that pesky law of inertia is a fickle one, and with that size the acceleration and change of direction is gone, far and away the more important baseball skills. His tracking fly balls down in the outfield is like chasing an automobile with a freight train: raw mph doesn't really describe why it can't work.

As Fulbright notes, Dunn's defensive numbers these last couple of seasons are off the charts. And not in a good way; this year his minus-35 Ultimate Zone Rating is easily the worst in the majors. He was one of the worst in the majors last year, too. And he's awful wherever you put him. Dunn's struggles in the outfield suggested a solution: "Put him at first base!"

Well, when you put him at first base he's one of the worst first basemen. He might improve with more work there, but then again he might not. Now it seems almost bizarre that Dunn's with his third team and still hasn't played in the American League, where he might play his now-natural position (DH).

Right now, this is the Nationals' problem. Yes, Dunn is still hitting. He's got a chance to hit 40 (or more) home runs for the sixth straight season and he's leading the National League in walks. Unfortunately, he's making $8 million this season and $12 million next season ... and he's not worth anything like $10 million per season. Not when he has to play the field.

There really aren't many players like this, who are worth significantly more in one league than the other. In fact, considering the current qualitative difference between the leagues, I'm not entirely convinced that Dunn is one of those players. But when you look at the lousy production the Mariners and the Royals and the Tigers have gotten from their DH's this season -- the Tigers would already have locked up first place with a decent DH -- it's hard to believe there's not a good fit somewhere in the American League for Dunn.

Meanwhile, every additional dollar spend on Dunn is a dollar that should be better spent somewhere else.

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