Who will be the game-changers of 2011?
March, 20, 2011
3/20/11
11:51
AM ET
By Anna McDonald | ESPN.com
Right now, the best thing about the 2011 baseball season is what we don’t know. Grab any team's schedule and take a good look: We don’t know which night will be a perfect game -- you can’t buy tickets in advance for those. You can’t call your friends now and tell them to meet you at the ballpark on July 7 to watch Robinson Cano hit a walk-off home run and you’re not going to be able to tell from taking a look at the schedule which weekend series between division rivals is going to matter the most.
Those unknown game-changing moments are the times we all remember years after they happen. And, you know what? The ballplayers remember them as well, with even more detail than we can recall. One thing that’s consistent in talking to major league players is when they tell you a story about a game-changing moment they were a part of they can recall it pitch-by-pitch, play-by-play. There’s something that happens in the mind of an athlete when the game is on the line. Jack Clark once told me hitting in those high-leverage situations, "takes your level of focus to a different level."
Christopher Szagola/Icon SMIThe Reds' Joey Votto led the majors last season in situational wins with 6.1.Who will be the game-changers this season? There’s a little statistic that doesn't get a lot of attention:Win Probability Added (WPA) divided by Leverage Index (LI), or situational wins. The Hardball Times Annual defines situational wins as, "Literally, the WPA of a play divided by its criticality (measured by LI). This stat takes WPA and effectively neutralizes the impact of the game situation." If you haven’t already and want to dive more into Leverage Indexes and WPA, The Book is a must read.
But for right now, there’s no way to know which ballplayers will lead the major league in situational wins for 2011, but here are a few ballplayers who might be game-changers this year -- by what they contribute, or don’t -- to their teams' ability to score.
Joey Votto
Albert Pujols led the National League in runs scored last year with 115. Votto ended the season fourth in runs scored with 106, but Votto had a greater impact on his team's scoring than Albert Pujols did in 2010. Votto led the majors last year in situational wins with 6.1. As a team, the Reds scored the most (790) runs in the National League, but to be the division champions again this year they are going to need Votto to do what he did so well last year -- hit when it matters most. If he doesn’t, Pujols is there to take over his title.
Kevin Youkilis
Youkilis consistently does an outstanding job at helping the Boston Red Sox when the game is on the line. In 2010, he didn’t make the top 10 in WAR, BA, hits, TB or RS, but in the American League he was 10th in situational wins (2.7) and eighth in WPA (3.4). Perhaps, if the Red Sox could figure out a way to get Youkilis in those situations more often he might be the game-changer for 2011.
Miguel Cabrera
In the heavy-scoring American League, Cabrera is pivotal in keeping the Detroit Tigers with the rest of the pack. He scored 111 runs, second in the American League behind Mark Teixeira. Cabrera was second in the American League in situational wins (5.2). The Tigers allowed too many runs last year, but without Cabrera having a repeat of his 2010 stats the Tigers might not be in the mix for the AL Central title this year.
Jayson Werth
Jayson Stark has a great article on Werth and his responsibility to his new team -- the responsibility of being a leader with the Washington Nationals. One major league player told me to be a guy who comes through in the "clutch" you have to be a team player. Well, the Philadelphia Phillies had only one ballplayer last year in the top 10 for situational wins, and that was Werth. Many ballplayers believe even if they are facing the best pitchers in baseball (which happen to be your old teammates in Werth's case) you get a pitch to hit in every at-bat, it's just a matter of whether you're ready for the right pitch. Will Werth be ready? He has the ability to be a game-changer.
Robinson Cano
The Yankees will score a lot of runs; they always do. In a tight division race they'll need them at just the right time. Cano had 334 TB last year, third in the American League. Not only was he on base a lot but he was fifth in situational wins, with 3.6.
This is by no means a comprehensive list of top potential 2011 game-changers, but it's a nice start to get us excited. The best part of the game-changing moments and the ballplayers who deliver them is when they impact the entire season.
In The Hardball Times Annual this year, Dave Studenmund takes WPA even further than situational wins and puts the entire 2010 season into a single number by using WPA and Championship Leverage Index. Using Championship Leverage Index he outlined some of the most crucial games and moments of the year for 2010. He wrote, "Some teams, such as Baltimore and Kansas City, had their 'most crucial' games on the first day of the season. Their tires went flat immediately."
Wow. While it's true that at any point in the season we can witness a ballplayer impact his team in a high-leverage situation, you might want to grab some tickets for Opening Day, if you can! It just might be the most important game of the season.
Baseball's great moments for 2011 are just around the corner. The most crucial batter and pitcher matchups of the season haven’t happened yet and every fan, every team and every player has hope. Baseball is perfect right now.
Enjoy discovering the unknown moments for 2011; those special times both fans and ballplayers remember for years and years to come.
Anna writes for It's About The Money, a blog about the New York Yankees on the SweetSpot Network, and ESPN.com's Page 2. You can follow her on her Twitter @Anna__McDonald. IIATMS can also be found on Facebook here and you can follow on Twitter here.
Those unknown game-changing moments are the times we all remember years after they happen. And, you know what? The ballplayers remember them as well, with even more detail than we can recall. One thing that’s consistent in talking to major league players is when they tell you a story about a game-changing moment they were a part of they can recall it pitch-by-pitch, play-by-play. There’s something that happens in the mind of an athlete when the game is on the line. Jack Clark once told me hitting in those high-leverage situations, "takes your level of focus to a different level."
Christopher Szagola/Icon SMIThe Reds' Joey Votto led the majors last season in situational wins with 6.1.But for right now, there’s no way to know which ballplayers will lead the major league in situational wins for 2011, but here are a few ballplayers who might be game-changers this year -- by what they contribute, or don’t -- to their teams' ability to score.
Joey Votto
Albert Pujols led the National League in runs scored last year with 115. Votto ended the season fourth in runs scored with 106, but Votto had a greater impact on his team's scoring than Albert Pujols did in 2010. Votto led the majors last year in situational wins with 6.1. As a team, the Reds scored the most (790) runs in the National League, but to be the division champions again this year they are going to need Votto to do what he did so well last year -- hit when it matters most. If he doesn’t, Pujols is there to take over his title.
Kevin Youkilis
Youkilis consistently does an outstanding job at helping the Boston Red Sox when the game is on the line. In 2010, he didn’t make the top 10 in WAR, BA, hits, TB or RS, but in the American League he was 10th in situational wins (2.7) and eighth in WPA (3.4). Perhaps, if the Red Sox could figure out a way to get Youkilis in those situations more often he might be the game-changer for 2011.
Miguel Cabrera
In the heavy-scoring American League, Cabrera is pivotal in keeping the Detroit Tigers with the rest of the pack. He scored 111 runs, second in the American League behind Mark Teixeira. Cabrera was second in the American League in situational wins (5.2). The Tigers allowed too many runs last year, but without Cabrera having a repeat of his 2010 stats the Tigers might not be in the mix for the AL Central title this year.
Jayson Werth
Jayson Stark has a great article on Werth and his responsibility to his new team -- the responsibility of being a leader with the Washington Nationals. One major league player told me to be a guy who comes through in the "clutch" you have to be a team player. Well, the Philadelphia Phillies had only one ballplayer last year in the top 10 for situational wins, and that was Werth. Many ballplayers believe even if they are facing the best pitchers in baseball (which happen to be your old teammates in Werth's case) you get a pitch to hit in every at-bat, it's just a matter of whether you're ready for the right pitch. Will Werth be ready? He has the ability to be a game-changer.
Robinson Cano
The Yankees will score a lot of runs; they always do. In a tight division race they'll need them at just the right time. Cano had 334 TB last year, third in the American League. Not only was he on base a lot but he was fifth in situational wins, with 3.6.
This is by no means a comprehensive list of top potential 2011 game-changers, but it's a nice start to get us excited. The best part of the game-changing moments and the ballplayers who deliver them is when they impact the entire season.
In The Hardball Times Annual this year, Dave Studenmund takes WPA even further than situational wins and puts the entire 2010 season into a single number by using WPA and Championship Leverage Index. Using Championship Leverage Index he outlined some of the most crucial games and moments of the year for 2010. He wrote, "Some teams, such as Baltimore and Kansas City, had their 'most crucial' games on the first day of the season. Their tires went flat immediately."
Wow. While it's true that at any point in the season we can witness a ballplayer impact his team in a high-leverage situation, you might want to grab some tickets for Opening Day, if you can! It just might be the most important game of the season.
Baseball's great moments for 2011 are just around the corner. The most crucial batter and pitcher matchups of the season haven’t happened yet and every fan, every team and every player has hope. Baseball is perfect right now.
Enjoy discovering the unknown moments for 2011; those special times both fans and ballplayers remember for years and years to come.
Anna writes for It's About The Money, a blog about the New York Yankees on the SweetSpot Network, and ESPN.com's Page 2. You can follow her on her Twitter @Anna__McDonald. IIATMS can also be found on Facebook here and you can follow on Twitter here.

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