Still fighting over Cy Young in AL

October, 3, 2009
Well, last night the Cy Young situation got clearer in the American League, but murkier in the National League.

With CC Sabathia's ugly loss, he failed to win 20 games and his ERA jumped to 3.37. If he had a legitimate chance at the Cy Young -- and I'm not sure that he did -- he basically had to win 20 games. So, he's out.

In the National League, Adam Wainwright came so close to winning his 20th. After six innings, Wainwright and his Cardinals owned a 6-1 lead over the Brewers. But Wainwright gave up a few runs, and then the bullpen gave up a lot more. So, POOF: goodbye, win No. 20.

Goodbye, too, to a virtually sure Cy Young Award. With nobody else in the National League winning more than 17 games, Wainwright's 20 would have been irresistible for a solid percentage of Cy Young voters.

Now, though? I just don't know. The Cy Young Predictor gives Wainwright a solid edge over Chris Carpenter, his only real competition, and the Predictor just doesn't miss on starting pitchers. But Carpenter's ERA is lower than Wainwright's, and his winning percentage significantly better. So while I think Wainwright will win -- and I think Tim Lincecum should win (but won't) -- we might be surprised a bit by this one.

Meanwhile, there is still a great deal to be decided in the American League. If Zack Greinke beats the Twins this afternoon, he will -- in addition to putting a dent in the Twins' October plans -- pass Felix Hernandez in the Predictor. Ah, but perhaps not for long. Because Hernandez pitches against the Rangers tomorrow, and he'll move back ahead of Greinke if he wins.

This time, though, I don't trust the Cy Young Predictor. If Greinke doesn't win today and Hernandez wins tomorrow, it'll be real interesting. But if Greinke beats the desperate Twins today on what's become a national stage, there might not be a single thing that King Felix can do tomorrow.



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