Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Five trades that need to be made
By David Schoenfield
I was at a family function over the weekend and spent much of it talking baseball with my wife's uncle, a huge Yankees fan. The short version of his analysis: He's not too concerned about the state of the team because he's convinced the Yankees will make a few trades.
You know ... like for Felix Hernandez. Everybody in New York still thinks the Yankees can just trade for Felix because ... well, I guess because they're the Yankees. Now, let's repeat something we've said several times:
The Mariners aren't going to trade Felix Hernandez.
The Mariners aren't going to trade Felix Hernandez.
AROUND THE SWEETSPOT NETWORK
The Orioles have been interchanging between good weeks and bad weeks The magnitude of the differences is getting smaller and smaller with each progressive week, but that could certainly change if several of the players get hot. However, it remains unlikely this team is a playoff caliber squad. In the remaining 117 games, the Orioles will need to win at a .615 clip to reach 93 total wins.
It's About The Money.
Before the season started, I designated Andruw Jones as my Randy Winn Memorial DFA Watch player of 2011, and we may not be too far away from the end of that. Entering play tonight Jones is hitting a meager .191/.240/.340, and has currently been worth -0.1 fWAR. He's also hitting just .189/.231/.378 against left-handed pitchers, a totally unacceptable mark for a guy who's primary job is to hit lefties. To be blunt, this just isn't going to cut it, and if Jones can't turn it around quickly he needs to be sent packing.
Bay City Ball
When Barry Zito went down with a foot injury on April 17 against the Arizona Diamondbacks many wondered how the Giants would replace his steady, if not grossly overpaid, production. Mentioning Barry Zito's name will likely draw a wide range of responses from fans, but the fact remains that Zito, at his core, is essentially a league average starting pitcher in the National League. And no matter how much you dislike the guy, there's some value there.
Now, my wife's uncle says that's OK, because the Yankees will just acquire Mark Buehrle instead. Now, maybe the White Sox will eventually fall far enough out of the race that trading Buehrle will make sense. But it doesn't now. But these five trades ... well, they do make sense.
Considering genius Fred Wilpon just torpeded Beltran's value by suggesting he's not close to the player he used to be, the Mets can't expect a top prospect in return for their right fielder, a free agent after the season. Plus, his $18.5 million contract is a problem for most teams. The Mariners' current hot streak (granted, it's come against the punchless Twins and Padres) suddenly put them in the thick of the AL West race despite their offensive struggles. Designated hitter Jack Cust just hit his first home run and Carlos Peguero and Mike Wilson are hardly the short-term (or long-term) solutions in left field. Beltran could play left and DH, and Seattle has the ability to pick up some additional payroll. (Beltran would have to waive his no-trade clause.)
Seager was a teammate of Dustin Ackley's at North Carolina, but with Ackley set as Seattle's second baseman of the future, he doesn't have a spot. After hitting .345 with 40 doubles and 14 home runs in the California League, he's proving himself in the tough transition to Double-A, hitting .302/.371/.477. He has a nice line-drive stroke, although there are some doubts about his range. Then again, this is a team playing Daniel Murphy at second base.
The Rays are getting no production from their John Jaso/Shoppach platoon. The Reds' 4.71 ERA from their rotation ranks 14th in the NL. Thus, a perfect trade matchup.
Hanigan is probably the best backup catcher in the majors. He doesn't have much power, but takes a walk and rarely strikes out (he has more walks than strikeouts in his career). More importantly for the Rays, he's signed to a cost-friendly contract of $4 million total through 2013.
Cobb is an underrated pitching prospect who doesn't wow scouts with his stuff, but he gets great results. He throws strikes and led the Southern League with 9.6 Ks per nine innings last season. He had a 1.31 ERA in seven Triple-A starts with a 45/10 SO/BB ratio and made his major league debut on May 1. The Reds can afford to trade Hanigan with two excellent catching prospects in the minors (Devin Mesoraco and Yasmani Grandal) and Ramon Hernandez still on the big league roster. Who gets bumped from the rotation? Take your pick. Bronson Arroyo and Edinson Volquez have both been terrible.
The trade speculation with the Padres revolves around closer Heath Bell, an impending free agent, but they could possibly extract more in a trade by dealing setup man supreme Adams, who has a 1.25 ERA, 21/2 SO/BB ratio and .55 WHIP.
The Tigers make perfect sense: They have the worst bullpen ERA in the majors (5.97) and the highest batting average allowed (.287). Closer Jose Valverde has been the team's only reliable reliever. Martinez is a 20-year-old third baseman currently hitting .261 with five home runs in Double-A. He's a bit of a project, but scouts like his tools and the Padres need to take some chances in hopes of finding some offense.
Why should the Astros trade their best player? For several reasons: (1) He's good, but not that good; he does a lot of nice things on a baseball field, but a mediocre OBP prevents him from being a true star. (2) He's starting to get expensive. He won $6.9 million in arbitration for 2011 and will likely get at least $10 million next season. (3) He's 28, and while he's at his peak right now, he may not be at his peak as he turns 30 ... aka, by the time the Astros are likely to be good again.
As for the Phillies, they are in win-now mode. Sure, Brown and Cossart are arguably their top prospects, but the jury remains out on how much Brown will contribute this season. They risk giving up a future All-Star, but Pence gives them a much-needed dependable bat for the middle of the lineup. With $24 million of Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge coming off the books after this season, the Phillies can also afford to pick up Pence's future salary.
Colorado third basemen have been beyond awful, hitting .169 with two home runs. Betemit is hitting .315 with a .379 on-base percentage, but with Mike Moustakas soon to arrive in the big leagues, Betemit looks like perfect trade bait for the rebuilding Royals. Jose Lopez and Ty Wigginton aren't the answer at third, so unless you think Ian Stewart can rebound from his 3-for-47 start and banishment to Triple-A, Betemit looks like a nice fit to play third and take over Colorado's leadoff spot.
The man currently holding that position is Fowler, but the former top prospect just hasn't developed as expected. His game has regressed this season with too many strikeouts, a lack of power and just two steals in eight attempts. He needs a change of scenery and maybe a wake-up call. Rogers is a power arm in need of refinement.
So there you go. Five trades that make sense from all angles. And I didn't even mention Jose Reyes or Prince Fielder or ...
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Think Phillies fans were kind of waiting for Chase Utley to return? Well, yes, yes they were.