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Thursday, December 10, 2009
Byrnes defends the Megadeal

Well, that didn't take long. Nick Piecoro tracked down Josh Byrnes, who didn't pull his punches when asked to explain why he made a deal that everyone seems to think he flubbed ...

It's all there, friends.

An organizational concern about Scherzer's durability? Check.

An acknowledgment that Jackson's been pitching in a tougher league than Scherzer? Check.

A belief that Kennedy's excellent performance in the minors is predictive? Check.

It will be at least three years before we'll know who "won" this trade. If Scherzer stays healthy and pitches well for the Tigers, Kennedy will have to pitch exceptionally well for this trade to look good for the Diamondbacks, because Jackson won't be around long enough to contribute a great deal. If Scherzer breaks down, or just doesn't develop like he's supposed to? The deal looks pretty good for the Diamondbacks if Kennedy or Jackson pitches well.

I'm still stuck on the conventional wisdom. I have to disagree with Byrnes, mildly. In general, the immediate reaction to a trade is an accurate predictor more often than not. But as I said yesterday, Josh Byrnes is neither stupid nor ignorant. He's looking at the same numbers the rest of us (including the Yankees and the Tigers) are looking at.

You can bet against the Diamondbacks if you like. But I will recommend that you don't bet much.

(H/T: BTF's Newsstand)