Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Dodgers collect 30-something mediocrities
By David Schoenfield
DALLAS -- The Dodgers are kind of like that guy you invited into your fantasy league in 2006 who hadn't followed baseball in 10 years and immediately traded three players for Ken Griffey Jr.
Name recognition? Check.
Rigorous analysis of the players involved? Umm ...
Besides signing MVP runner-up Matt Kemp to a $160 million contract, the Dodgers have signed the following six players this offseason:
Give GM Ned Colletti credit for being quick with the trigger finger. He identified the glaring holes on his team and moved to fill them. Sure, he overpaid and he's deferred the salaries, but now he has a second baseman! And two third basemen! A quick review of these signings:
Ellis: He hit .316 in 2005. He hit 19 home runs in 2007. But he'll turn 35 in 2012 and his home runs have declined from 19 to 12 to 10 to five (and back up to seven in 2011, although five of those came in Colorado). At one point, he was an underrated fielder with excellent range, but while he's still sure-handed, he doesn't cover as much ground as he used to.
Capuano: In his first full season in a major league rotation since 2007, he posted a 4.55 ERA for the Mets. Decent season? Well, among 75 NL pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, that ERA ranked 61st. Pitching in a favorable park for a left-handed flyball pitcher, he still served up 27 home runs (17 on the road). He comes with some positives, namely a 168/53 strikeout/walk ratio, but the home run rate is a potential red flag.
Rivera: A poor defensive outfielder with a .315 on-base percentage since 2007 who will turn 34 in July.
Harang: Reports have him coming to L.A. on another two-year deal. Harang had a nice comeback year with the Padres, going 14-7 with a 3.64 ERA -- in the best pitcher's park in baseball. Dig deeper into the numbers and you see Harang allowed a .684 OPS at Petco Park, but an .878 OPS on the road. His strikeout rate, which peaked at 8.7 K's per nine innings in 2007, has dropped to 6.5 per nine, a strong indicator that 2011 wasn't a resurgence so much as a pitcher benefiting from the Petco canyons.
Hairston: He's scrappy and managers love his attitude (Ron Roenicke said Monday that he loved having him on the Brewers), but in the end he's still a 36-year-old utility player. A nice guy to have on a team, but at $6 million for two years?
Kennedy: Hey, he had that big playoff game for the Angels back in 2002.
The collective problem with these signings is that they have little chance of making the Dodgers better in 2012. Only Capuano has much of an upside, but even that is unlikely to match what Hiroki Kuroda produced in 2011 (3.07 ERA over 202 innings). Worse, there is a good chance all five players contribute little more than a replacement-level signing would accomplish ... but instead of at league minimum wages, they'll cost the Dodgers $29 million plus Harang's deal.
Somewhat problematic as well: The Dodgers have backloaded the contracts (Hairston will get $3.75 million in 2013, Ellis $5.25 million in 2013, Capuano $6 million plus a $1 million buyout in 2013). The new owner will be saddled with contracts of these mediocre, declining veterans (not to mention that Juan Uribe is owed $16 million over the next two seasons).
The Dodgers have Kemp and Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw. Shortstop Dee Gordon could become one of the most exciting players in baseball. Kenley Jansen should step in and become a dominant closer. That's a great foundation for a new owner to take over.
Unfortunately, that foundation now has the cracks of a group of players who won't push the club past the 82 victories of 2011. It looks like another season of Dodger Stadium sitting half empty, a once-proud franchise and its fans only hoping the right group of buyers purchases the club. It better have some deep pockets and a large supply of patience.