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Friday, February 10, 2012
Over/under: Jay Bruce's home runs

By David Schoenfield

Since I wrote about Jay Bruce (plus Andrew McCutchen and Colby Rasmus), it follows that we should do an over/under on him.

So how many home runs will Bruce hit in 2012?

It's hard to believe Bruce has already been around four seasons, but doesn't turn 25 until April. He's coming off a season in which he played 157 games and hit 32 home runs. Well the raw totals were a career high that was a function of playing time. His home run rates were similar to his previous seasons:

2011: 4.8% HR rate, 13.2% HR/FB rate
2010: 4.4% HR rate, 12.2% HR/FB rate
2009: 5.7% HR rate, 15.5% HR/FB rate
2008: 4.7% HR rate, 14.2% HR/FB rate

Bruce split his home runs evenly in 2011 -- 16 at home, 16 on the road; however, he has a large split over his career, with 61 at home and 39 on the road.

The Bill James projection system has Bruce at 32 home runs. RotoChamp has Bruce at 32 home runs. Dan Szymborski's ZiPS predicts 28 home runs. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system predicts 31 home runs.

We'll put the over/under at 31.5.