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Saturday, March 17, 2012
Over/under: Wins for Rays

By David Schoenfield

Here's my more detailed analysis of the Rays. Since I project them to win 93 games you can certainly put me in the "over" category for this poll.

So, playing devil's advocate, here's what could go wrong:

1. Injuries. Especially if a key offensive player like Evan Longoria or Ben Zobrist goes down.
2. The bullpen could implode. It pitched well a season ago, but will guys such as Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta be as effective?
3. Severe regression from James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson. Both pitchers relied heavily on a low BABIP last season. BABIP tends to regress back toward .300, no matter the quality of defense behind a pitcher.
4. Carlos Pena hits .196 -- like he did with the Rays in 2010.
5. Luke Scott doesn't produce at DH.
6. Matt Moore is good ... but not great.

So, no, 93 wins is not a sure thing. What do you think?