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Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Smoltz giving up mound for booth?


Does this press release mean that John Smoltz is officially retiring?


Five pitches.

Qualitatively, the only real difference between John Smoltz in 2009 (3-8, 6.35 ERA) and the John Smoltz who's heading to the Hall of Fame (213-155, 3.33) was five pitches that turned into five home runs.

Last year, Smoltz struck out 8.4 and walked 2.1 hitters per nine innings, both figures slightly better than his career marks. He did allow 1.3 home runs per nine innings, which is roughly twice his career rate (0.7) ... but that's just five home runs. If Smoltz had allowed six homers rather than 11, he'd have hit his career rate exactly. Which is, by the way, almost exactly what he did in both 2007 and 2008.

Those five "extra" home runs aren't meaningless, and last year Smoltz wasn't throwing as hard as he had in the previous few seasons. But people are going to look at his 6.35 ERA last season and assume he had to retire, and I just don't think that's true. I think he can still pitch, and I hope he's got something in his new contract that allows him to delay his TV career if somebody really wants him to pitch.