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Friday, February 21, 2014
Over/under: Ryan Braun's home runs

By David Schoenfield

Since Ryan Braun was in the news yesterday, reporting to Brewers camp and facing the onslaught of questions while not saying a whole lot, let's do him today.

How many home runs will he hit?

Do you think he was a product of PEDs? Do you think the effects of sports drugs are overstated? When did he use them and how often?

Braun hit 33 home runs in 2011, 41 in 2012 and nine last year in 61 games, when he played through a thumb injury that affected his swing and eventually put him on the DL before his suspension. (In changing his swing, Braun hit a much higher percentage of groundballs in 2013 than in previous seasons.)

The projection systems range from 25 home runs to 33, with ZiPS being the most optimistic. I'm more in line with ZiPS, so let's set the over/under at 32.5 home runs.