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Friday, March 7, 2014
Over/under: Granderson's home runs

By David Schoenfield

As a quick follow-up to my last post, let's do the over/under on Curtis Granderson's home runs.

The projection systems aren't as optimistic as I am. ZiPS see more injury issues coming and projects Granderson playing 113 games and hitting 20 home runs. Steamer projects 133 games and 23 home runs.

The fear that moving to Citi Field will hurt Granderson is somewhat warranted. He hit 47 home runs at home and 37 on the road over 2011-12, so he certainly enjoyed the short wall at Yankee Stadium. But Citi Field isn't the Death Valley it was before the fences were moved in. There are some tough pitchers in the NL East, but there were a lot of good pitchers in the AL East, too.

I'm going to set the over/under at 27.5. I'll be taking the over.