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Sunday, March 16, 2014
Over/under: Josh Donaldson's average

By David Schoenfield

Since I just wrote a little profile on Josh Donaldson, we may as well do an over/under on him.

In his first full season in the majors, Donaldson played 158 games, hit .301 with 24 home runs, ranked second behind only Mike Trout in the American League in WAR and finished fourth in the MVP voting.

Was it legit? Or did Donaldson just have a career year at 27? While he hit just .241 in 2012 in 75 games, that was after an awful start. After getting sent down to the minors and then recalled, he did hit .290 over the final 47 games in 2012, so his stretch of good hitting goes past just 2013.

He was pretty consistent last year, hitting .310/.379/.522 in the first half, .286/.391/.466 in the second half. His power did drop a bit, but he also finished strong, hitting .337 with five home runs in September.

What about 2014? ZiPS is especially pessimistic, having him at .257. Steamer has him at .267. A third system, Oliver, is more positive with a .284 mark. Let's put the over/under at .279.