Wednesday, July 2, 2014
Trade deadline preview: AL West
By David Schoenfield
Over the next six days, we will go division by division and look at what each team needs to do at the trade deadline and what may actually happen. As always, you can keep up with the latest trade talk at Rumor Central.
Status: Selling anyone older than 30.
Trade targets for other teams: OF Dexter Fowler (arbitration eligible, although he just landed on the DL), RP Chad Qualls ($3 million in 2015, team option in 2016), RP Tony Sipp (arb-eligible).
Possible suitors: Fowler's upcoming arbitration, coming on the heels of a 116 OPS+ season, might be too pricey for the rebuilding Astros. The Giants (with Angel Pagan out indefinitely with back issues) and Red Sox (still waiting for Jackie Bradley Jr. to get it together) could use upgrades and stability in center field.
When you are headed toward 95 or more losses, relievers are expendable and easily replaceable. Qualls and Sipp are the most marketable. Qualls has a ridiculous 9-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 28 1/3 innings, while Sipp has held lefties to a .283 OPS in 22 1/3 innings. Toronto could certainly use Sipp as a second lefty in the pen. Qualls might step right in as a closer for the always-in-flux Tigers or suddenly struggling Giants.
What they need: Restocking the farm system, which has recently graduated Jonathan Singleton, George Springer and Domingo Santana.
Likely scenario: Qualls and Sipp find new homes by mid-July, and Fowler stays with Astros through the end of 2014.
-- Diane Firstman, Value Over Replacement Grit
Los Angeles Angels
Biggest needs: A reliable late-innings reliever, aka baseball's unicorn. Despite throwing the fourth-fewest innings of any American League bullpen, the club's relief corps still holds claim to the league's worst WAR (-0.6). The Angels already added Jason Grilli and Rich Hill to the bullpen mix in the past week (and jettisoned Ernesto Frieri), but those moves serve more as window dressing than anything else, so a bigger trade is likely in the offing. There's some chatter about the Halos adding a starter of the Jason Hammel or Ian Kennedy variety, but the pen is the bigger need at the moment. The Angels could also go for an upgrade at third base, where David Freese and friends have combined to put up an AL-worst .265 wOBA, but that's a need more likely filled over the winter.
Possible trade targets: Relievers Huston Street, Joaquin Benoit or Joakim Soria, a midrotation starter with some team control remaining and maybe a platoon partner for Freese.
Potential trade chips: Grant Green? Alex Yarbrough? Some other middle-of-the-road prospect? The reason the Angels are highly unlikely to be involved in the David Price and Jeff Samardzija sweepstakes is they really don't have much to entice potential trade partners. C.J. Cron could have been a valuable piece to dangle in front of teams needing power (hello, San Diego!), but he's likely off the table now that Raul Ibanez is out of the picture.
Likely scenario: The Angels acquire Street or Benoit from the Padres for a package that includes one of the team's many second-base prospects who are in (or close) to the majors (e.g., Green, Yarbrough or Taylor Lindsey), giving San Diego an option at the keystone that will distract fans from the total implosion of Jedd Gyorko.
-- Nate Aderhold, Halos Daily
Status: All-in. The A's lead the AL in runs scored and are second in fewest runs allowed.
Biggest needs: Second base has been the obvious black hole on offense, with a combined .228/.296/.266 line, 27th in the majors in wOBA. As scrappy as Eric Sogard and Nick Punto may be, even the best lineup in the league could improve.
The other obvious area to address would be the rotation, which has been terrific but has also been progressively worse each month. Sonny Gray and Jesse Chavez have never pitched an entire season in a big league rotation, and Scott Kazmir hasn't pitched more than 158 innings since 2007. With Drew Pomeranz currently on the DL, Triple-A vet Brad Mills has been starting.
Possible trade targets: If Billy Beane wants to deal, there are plenty of second basemen potentially out there -- Aaron Hill, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Chase Utley (although he can veto any deal) and Gordon Beckham. A couple of former A's starters would also be nice fits -- Brandon McCarthy and Bartolo Colon.
Possible trade chips: Shortstop Addison Russell, back after missing the first two months with a hamstring problem, isn't going anywhere, but the Oakland system is otherwise thin at the upper levels. Outfielder Billy McKinney, the team's first-round pick in 2013, and shortstop Daniel Robertson are young and holding their own for Stockton in the high Class A California League. Teams will ask about those two, but Beane won't want to trade them. First baseman Matt Olson has slugged 23 home runs for Stockton although he's hitting just .249.
Likely scenario: The A's are always constrained by their payroll, so guys like Hill and Colon may not fit due to their salaries. Beane will undoubtedly do something, but it's more likely to be a minor pickup or a higher salaried guy after the July 31 nonwaiver trade deadline. For example, in 2012, he acquired Stephen Drew in August.
-- David Schoenfield
Status: Buying. Yes, Mariners fans, you're in a playoff race.
Biggest needs: A right-handed corner outfield bat -- Mariners left fielders (mostly Dustin Ackley) are hitting .226/.278/.334. Ackley has fared a little better against left-handers, not that he's hit either side. With Corey Hart and Justin Smoak both on the DL, the Mariners have been using the likes of John Buck, Endy Chavez and Willie Bloomquist at first base or DH. Considering Hart and Smoak didn't hit when they were in the lineup, a first base/DH-type is also a possibility.
The rotation has the second-best ERA in the AL, and even though Taijuan Walker just made his season debut, the Mariners could go after a starter. Chris Young has been a pleasant surprise with his 3.15 ERA, but his FIP is 4.99 and he hasn't made it through an entire season since 2007. And Roenis Elias slots best as a back-end starter, not a No. 3.
Possible trade targets: All available outfielders will be enticing -- Josh Willingham, Marlon Byrd, Michael Cuddyer and maybe Alex Rios (the Mariners and Rangers made a midseason trade with Cliff Lee back in the day). With the Twins having fallen back in the AL Central, bringing back Kendrys Morales is a possibility, although he hasn't hit in 21 games with Minnesota. On the pitching front, the usual suspects will be mentioned: Kennedy, Hammel, McCarthy. But what about Colon? He is signed through 2015, but if the Mets decide to deal him, he would be an attractive target for a lot of teams.
Possible trade chips: It will be difficult for the Mariners to get one of the better starters since they don't have much in the way of prospects in the upper minors, unless you include Walker or the injured James Paxton. Nick Franklin is the one guy they have, but his poor performance of late (.221 in Triple-A in June) hasn't helped his value. It seems unlikely they would trade Walker now that he's apparently over his early-season shoulder issues (keep fingers crossed).
Likely scenario: They have to acquire at least one bat, and an impending free agent like Willingham wouldn't cost a top prospect. Byrd, signed through next season at a reasonable rate, would be more expensive but is better. The next few weeks will us tell a lot about Elias, Young and Walker and whether Seattle will need to reinforce the rotation.
-- David Schoenfield
Status: Actively listening to offers.
Possible trade targets: RF Alex Rios ($13.5 million team option for 2015), 3B Adrian Beltre ($18 million for 2015, team option for 2016), RP Joakim Soria ($7 million team option for 2015), RP Neal Cotts (free agent), SS Elvis Andrus (under team control through 2018).
Possible suitors: Rios and Beltre could be considered by teams that feel they are one player away from being over the top. Given the value Beltre offers to the Rangers, a team would be hard-pressed to put together any kind of package that would satisfy Jon Daniels & Co., especially with the running belief that, with better health, the club can contend in 2015. Rios might be more of a possibility, as the Rangers have Michael Choice, Engel Beltre and a few others in the pipeline who might be outfield options in the near future.
Soria and Cotts would seem to be the most likely to be dealt, as this is the time of year that contending teams start looking for late-inning bullpen help. I don't foresee a team putting together any kind of legitimate package for Andrus, who the Rangers developed and signed to a long-term deal.
What they need: Depth on the farm has become somewhat of an issue, especially on the pitching front, after the various trades in recent years have filtered out some of the depth. The Rangers will likely look to find some future starting pitching in any deal, but a high-upside offensive prospect isn't out of the question.
Likely scenario: Cotts would be the one guy I could see getting moved at the deadline, with the possibility of Soria as well. Rios remains a remote possibility, but as for the other guys, I can't envision the Rangers parting ways with Andrus, Beltre or Darvish, no matter how bad things have been in 2014.
-- Brandon Land, One Strike Away