Tuesday, July 8, 2014
Dodgers-Tigers: World Series preview?
By David Schoenfield
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers play an intriguing two-game series Tuesday and Wednesday in Detroit, with Hyun-Jin Ryu versus Justin Verlander on Tuesday and Zack Greinke versus Max Scherzer on Wednesday afternoon. The clubs split a two-game series in the second week of the season, with both games going 10 innings.
Is this a World Series preview? Well, it obviously has World Series potential. Based on the playoff odds from FanGraphs that we use at ESPN.com, however, neither team is quite the favorite in its league to advance to the World Series.
American League odds to advance to the World Series:
A's: 28.0 percent
Tigers: 25.2 percent
Angels: 15.6 percent
Orioles: 8.2 percent
Blue Jays: 6.6 percent
National League odds to advance to the World Series:
Nationals: 28.4 percent
Dodgers: 24.8 percent
Giants: 11.0 percent
Braves: 10.6 percent
Cardinals: 8.8 percent
Those odds factor in what has happened so far, projected results from the current roster, the remaining schedule, injuries and so on. The additions of Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel certainly make the A's stronger on paper. One thing that helps the Tigers' odds is that they are projected as an easy winner in the AL Central; their 84.0 percent odds of winning the division is the highest of any of the six divisions. Win the division and miss the wild-card game and your odds of reaching the World Series increase.
The belief in the Dodgers and Tigers rests on the strength of their rotations. But does either team really have the best rotation in its league? The Dodgers' rotation is fifth in the NL in runs allowed per nine innings -- although the top seven staffs are bunched between 3.47 and 3.67 runs per nine innings. In terms of FanGraphs WAR, the Dodgers are also fifth. Meanwhile, the Detroit rotation has been nowhere near as dominant as last year, when it recorded the highest WAR for a rotation in the past decade. The Tigers have allowed 4.35 runs per nine -- below the AL average of 4.26. The starters do, however, rank first in FanGraphs WAR.
It's certainly not decisive that either team has the best rotation in its league.
Even if that were the case, is that any kind of playoff guarantee? Hardly. I looked back at the past 10 years and checked the team rotation leaders in FanGraphs WAR and fewest runs allowed per nine innings in each league. This gave us 38 staffs, as the leaders in those categories usually didn't match up.
Three of those teams won the World Series -- the 2004 and 2007 Red Sox and the 2005 White Sox. Four others reached the World Series. Eighteen missed the playoffs altogether. So of the 20 teams that did make the playoffs, seven reached the World Series (35 percent). Including the wild-card teams of the past two years, 84 teams have made the playoffs in the past 10 years, so the random odds of reaching the World Series is basically 1 in 4. So having the best rotation would appear to slightly improve a team's chances of making the World Series (of course, the differences between best and second-best and third-best are often minimal).
So, Dodgers-Tigers? If I had to pick today, I'll stick with the Dodgers, my preseason pick. I would change from the Rays to the A's in the AL. What do you think?
Here are the complete results of the past 10 years:
AL WAR: Tigers (25.3) -- Lost ALCS
NL WAR: Dodgers (13.9) -- Lost NLCS
AL R/9: Royals (3.71) -- Missed playoffs
NL R/9: Braves (3.38) -- Lost NLDS
AL WAR: Tigers (20.6) -- Lost World Series
NL WAR: Nationals (16.7) -- Lost NLDS
AL R/9: Rays (3.56) -- Missed playoffs
NL R/9: Reds (3.63) -- Lost NLDS
AL WAR: White Sox (19.7) -- Missed playoffs
NL WAR: Phillies (24.7) -- Lost NLDS
AL R/9: Rays (3.79) -- Lost ALDS
NL R/9: Phillies
AL WAR: Red Sox (18.5) -- Missed playoffs
NL WAR: Rockies (19.4) -- Missed playoffs
AL R/9: A's (3.86) -- Missed playoffs
NL R/9: Padres (3.59) -- Missed playoffs
AL WAR: Red Sox (18.8) -- Lost ALDS
NL WAR: Rockies (17.9) -- Lost NLDS
AL R/9: Mariners (4.27) -- Missed playoffs
NL R/9: Giants/Dodgers (3.77 ) -- Missed playoffs/Lost NLCS
AL WAR: Blue Jays (20.3) -- Missed playoffs
NL WAR: Diamondbacks (19.9) -- Missed playoffs
AL R/9: Blue Jays (3.77)
NL R/9: Dodgers (4.00) -- Lost NLCS
AL WAR: Red Sox (19.0) -- Won World Series
NL WAR: Giants (13.0) -- Missed playoffs
AL R/9: Red Sox (4.06)
NL R/9: Padres (4.09) -- Missed playoffs
AL WAR: Angels (18.2) -- Missed playoffs
NL WAR: Rockies (16.0) -- Missed playoffs
AL R/9: Tigers (4.17) -- Lost World Series
NL R/9: Padres (4.19) -- Lost NLDS
AL WAR: White Sox (18.8) -- Won World Series
NL WAR: Marlins (17.4) -- Missed playoffs
AL R/9: Indians (3.96) -- Missed playoffs
NL R/9: Astros (3.74) -- Lost World Series
AL WAR: Red Sox (22.3) -- Won World Series
NL WAR: Cubs (17.2) -- Missed playoffs
AL R/9: Twins (4.41) -- Lost ALDS
NL R/9: Cardinals (4.07) -- Lost World Series