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Thursday, September 9, 2010
Drama fading in AL Central


Remember that exciting pennant race in the American League Central?

Well, maybe not so much. Gleeman:



I'm actually surprised those percentages aren't higher. If the Twins manage to win 10 of their remaining 22 games -- and there's every reason to think they'll win more than 10 -- the White Sox will have to win 16 of their last 23 just to forge a tie. We generally think of such things as a long shot, but we're really talking about two long shots here: One good team must play poorly, and one less-good team must play particularly well.

And so we're reminded once again of how insignificant single players usually are. The Twins have been without their second-best player for two months, and the impact on the standings has been approximately zero. The White Sox just spent millions of dollars to add a single player, and the odds are strong that their investment will have approximately zero impact on the standings.

Every team is composed, over the course of a season, of dozens of moving parts. Most of the time, changing just one part won't change the ultimate outcome.