SweetSpot: A.J. Burnett

What a day in baseball on Wednesday! Eric Karabell and myself could have done a two-hour Baseball Today podcast. Here are some highlights of a jam-packed show. Eric even tricked me into comparing Jose Altuve to Al Kaline and Alex Rodriguez. OK, maybe I did that to myself.

1. We discuss Jered Weaver's no-hitter, of course, and wonder how many more no-hitters we'll see this season.

2. We discuss that wild, improbable game in Atlanta between the Phillies and Braves. Are there reasons to be concerned about Roy Halladay?

3. That's only the tip of the iceberg of a crazy night -- bad calls, Jason Giambi's walk-off homer, Jake Arrieta dominating the Yankees and more.

4. We answer some emails about Mat Gamel's injury and other stuff.

5. Finally, we look ahead to Thursday's action and I declare that Jose Altuve is a batting title contender.

Check it all out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, and don't miss Friday's show with Mark Simon and awesome guests Jayson Stark and Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey.

Why A.J. Burnett may have big season

April, 27, 2012
Apr 27
12:35
PM ET
BurnettBrad Barr/US PresswireA.J. Burnett had a big year with the Blue Jays in 2008 with Rod Barajas catching him.
Andrew McCutchen is laughing, shaking his head in disbelief. "It’s just another hat," he says during a spring training interview.

I tell him maybe he doesn’t understand how special these hats were. I tell him I realize they are ridiculous looking hats but seriously, what if they had magical powers? Would he wear the 1979 Pirates pillbox hat if it meant the current Pirates would bring a World Series championship to Steel City?

McCutchen still wasn’t buying it.

"Obviously that’s not going to make it happen," McCutchen said. "We’ve worn them in the past."

Although baseball players are notoriously superstitious, McCutchen is right; it takes a lot more than a special cap to win a World Series.

The Pirates begin a seven-game road trip tonight against the Braves. The last time the Pirates were in Atlanta they entered that late July series in 2011 tied for first place in the NL Central. After four games, 47 innings and one bad call by umpire Jerry Meals, they left Atlanta 1.5 games back, spiraled through losing the next 10 consecutive games and ended the season 72-90.

McCutchen said this season they are not going to focus on what happened to their team after Atlanta last year. Sure, they’ll remember it. But only as motivation to be more focused in 2012.

"I feel like if we can focus on day by day the sky is going to be the limit for us," McCutchen said back in late March.

One of the key offseason moves to forget the second half of 2011 was acquiring A.J. Burnett, who makes his second start tonight, facing off against the Braves' Tommy Hanson.

Recalling the conversations the Pirates had when they first began thinking about Burnett, manager Clint Hurdle said they started looking at his career, his history, the years Burnett pitched well. In 2008 for the Toronto Blue Jays, Burnett went 18-10, had a 4.07 ERA and a career-high 231 strikeouts. His catcher in Toronto? Rod Barajas.

"We called Rod once we knew we were getting A.J.," Hurdle said. "A.J. spoke volumes of the relationship that he had with Rod."

Barajas said over the last few years he and Burnett would talk every so often -- Burnett would call and ask for his input as to how he was pitching. Barajas believes the pitcher and catcher relationship to be the most important in all of baseball.

After being activated from the disabled list last Saturday (following surgery to repair a fractured orbital bone when hit in the face bunting in spring training), Burnett threw seven strong innings, giving up three hits to the St. Louis Cardinals and earning his first win of 2012. While it is only one game, it is interesting to note 70 percent of Burnett’s pitches were in the strike zone. If Burnett goes back to his 2008 form Barajas’ impact on Burnett will speak volumes.

"We kind of go back to what he did well that year," Barajas said of looking at Burnett’s years in Toronto. "It’s awesome, already having that relationship built up. It should put him at ease."

Burnett is just one piece of the puzzle for the Pirates. Sure, it is only April, but teams have to start somewhere and the Pirates' pitching staff is off to a great start.

They have allowed only 51 runs (second-fewest in the majors, behind the Washington Nationals' 48 runs) and they have a 2.58 ERA -- lower than the Rangers, Cardinals or Phillies.

Unfortunately, the Pirates' offense is off to a terrible start, thus the 8-10 record. They are last in the majors with only 41 runs scored. The Pirates have to find a way to get their offense going.

Shortstop Clint Barmes said this comes down to realizing how important every game is. Baseball is crazy that way, the entire season -- complete joy or agony -- can come down to one game.

"It’s taking the mentality of showing up every day, every game is big, every game is important," Barmes said. "As soon as you relax or sit back on your heels in this game it will find you in all aspects. ... The good teams find a way to get out of [struggles] a little quicker than the other teams."

How can the Pirates accomplish this?

The last time the Pirates won the World Series was 1979. According to Paul Lukas who writes the Uni Watch column for ESPN’s Fandom blog, the Pirates wore the pillbox cap from 1976 through 1986. So, McCutchen was right --- the pillbox caps were not the superstitious key to winning the World Series in 1979.

However, something else interesting happened in 1979. Willie Stargell, now Hall of Famer and then team leader, gave teammates gold stars for outstanding performances throughout the year. The team became one big family. Their team theme song in 1979: "We are Fam-i-ly!"

The Pirates have laid groundwork this year where the team can turn into a family -- from signing McCutchen, a team-oriented guy, to reuniting Burnett and Barajas. Maybe they'll have the capacity to address struggles better than they did last year.

"When you get a group of guys in a clubhouse that can pick each other up, you’re enjoying coming in the clubhouse," Barmes said of his teammates this year. "Not every team I’ve played on has been like that. But when you have that, it makes a big difference throughout a full season."

Of course, it is hard to identify if winning games builds good chemistry or if good chemistry leads to wins, but we know the stories from the teams who have experienced it. In a way, part of the magic of the 1979 Pirates really was in "Stargell’s stars" placed on those crazy pillbox caps.

If the Pirates give general manager Neal Huntington some money to improve the team before the trade deadline, what should he spend it on first?

That’s easy to answer: Amazon.com sells iron-on gold stars for cheap.

Anna McDonald contributes to the SweetSpot blog on ESPN.com's Playbook section. Follow her on Twitter.
With the complete edition of the Future Power Rankings revealed on ESPN.com this week and a special guest talking about a very relevant team, Keith Law and I had plenty to discuss in Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast:

1. Keith’s contribution to the five-year Power Rankings was dissected, as well as the methodology and the strength of the American League East! Where did your team end up? (Hope it’s not the Baltimore Orioles).

2. Surprise! Slugging Cuban Yoenis Cespedes ends up with the Oakland Athletics, and Keith shares his thoughts on what should be a very bright future.

3. Perhaps nobody would use the words "bright" and "future: when discussing A.J. Burnett, but his potential trade to Pittsburgh was on our mind, as well as the game’s best manager signing a contract extension.

4. Our e-mailers wished to discuss prospects, and KLaw had answers about the Blue Jays, Braves and scarcity of second basemen.

5. I spoke with Bill Baer about his new book "The 100 Things Phillies Fans Should Know and Do Before They Die" as well as the NL East and his popular blog CrashburnAlley.com, part of the SweetSpot network.

So download and listen to Thursday’s fine Baseball Today podcast, and we assure you no cats were harmed in the taping of this show.
Check out some of the great work from our blog network ...
Here are some links to check out in Internet land. We'll begin with reaction to the big signing from Tuesday.
  • ESPN Insider Buster Olney has an excellent breakdown of all the ramifications of the Fielder signing — from Detroit's future payroll obligations to what this could mean for Joey Votto. Over the past three seasons, Votto's hit .318/.418/.565 compared to Fielder's .287/.409/.547. Fielder has more power, but Votto makes up for it by hitting .300. Votto, of course, is superior with the glove and on the bases. Over those three seasons, Baseball Info Solutions rates Votto as plus-6 runs saved on defense compared to Fielder's minus-15. On the bases, Votto is minus-4 runs but Fielder is minus-17. That's about a 10-run advantage per season with the glove and feet that Votto provides — or one extra win. There is another difference, however: Votto will be two years older when he hits free agency, so I don't think that necessarily means Votto will get the same kind of contract as Fielder.
  • Miguel Cabrera has apparently said he's moving to third base. Cabrera last played third in 2008, when he started 14 games there for the Tigers at the start of the season, fielded .900, and was quickly moved to first. With the Marlins in 2007 he fielded .941 and BIS rated him as 16 runs worse than an average third baseman. I'm skeptical about Cabrera playing regularly there, but I suppose it's possible Cabrera could play third when Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer pitch — two strikeout/flyball pitchers — and Brandon Inge or Don Kelly play third when Rick Porcello or Doug Fister start.
  • Curt Schilling offers his thoughts on the signing.
  • Brewers closer John Axford talks about Prince and Milwaukee's offseason.
  • Walkoff Woodward — coming soon as an official SweetSpot Tigers blog — offers up a bunch of thoughts on Prince coming to Detroit.
  • What this means for the Nationals.
  • Jayson Stark lists his best 3-4 combos in the majors.
  • Crashburn Alley's Bill Baer breaks down the contracts of Fielder and Ryan Howard.

And some stuff from the non-Prince area ...
JacksonTony Ding/Icon SMIAs analysts predicted, excessive strikeouts have limited the effectiveness of Detroit's Austin Jackson.
As a Mariners fan in the 1980s, one player absolutely wrecked me above all others: Jim Presley. He was a third baseman with good power, a quick bat and a strong arm. In 1985, his first full season, he hit .275/.324/.484 with 28 home runs and 33 doubles. He looked like he'd be a star.

But while he made the All-Star team in 1986, his strikeouts increased from 100 to 172. The problem was obvious: The dude couldn't lay off the slider low and away. Time after time, he would flail helplessly at the pitch. It got comical; pitchers learned they didn't even have to throw the pitch close to the plate and Presley would chase. With two strikes, you knew it was coming; Presley knew it was coming. Swing and a miss. By 1991, not yet 30 years old, he was out of the majors.

All fans have their most frustrating players. Here are five current major leaguers who pop into my mind. Discuss your frustrations below!

Austin Jackson, Tigers: Just because you're on the list doesn't mean you're a bad player. Jackson is an excellent defensive center fielder -- according to the Defensive Runs Saved metric from Baseball Info Solution, he tied with Brett Gardner and Pablo Sandoval with 22 runs saved in 2011, the best total in the majors. What makes Jackson frustrating, of course, is the high total of strikeouts: 170 as a rookie in 2010 and 181 in 2011. He managed to overcome the strikeouts his rookie season when he hit .293 thanks to a high average on balls in play. Analysts predicted a big decline in 2011 unless he cut down his strikeouts, and they were right: Jackson hit .249 with a .317 on-base percentage, numbers exacerbated by Jim Leyland's stubborn insistence on hitting Jackson leadoff. Despite a great lineup -- the Tigers finished fourth in the majors in runs scored -- Detroit finished just 10th in runs scored by its leadoff hitters.

James Loney, Dodgers: In 2007, Loney hit .331 with 15 home runs in 344 at-bats as a 23-year-old rookie. He looked like a future stud, a first baseman who would hit for a good average and 25 to 30 home runs per season. But he's never matched the power potential, settling in with numbing consistency, hitting between 10 and 13 home runs each season. Since he's not a .300 hitter nor does he draw many walks, Loney's numbers remain subpar for a first baseman. The improvement just hasn't happened, yet Dodgers management continues to stick with him. He's now making $6.375 million; that's a lot to pay for a first baseman who's hit .281/.341/.411 over the past four seasons.

Mark Reynolds, Orioles: Reynolds has big-time power, of course: Since 2008, he's fifth in the majors with 141 home runs, trailing only Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira. But all those home runs come at the expense of record-breaking strikeout totals that drag down Reynolds' average. He's led the majors in K's each of those four seasons, and has racked up 834 -- more than 200 (!) per season. He shows no inclination to cut down on his swing. As a result, even though he draws walks, his .210 average and .322 on-base percentage cut into his overall offensive value. And then there's the defense. Reynolds had an .897 fielding percentage at third base in 2011, prompting the Orioles to start playing him at first. For now, they plan to move him back to third in 2012, and Reynolds has said he's lost weight this offseason to help improve his quickness and range at the hot corner. Now if only he would adjust a little at the plate.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees: He has a 5.20 ERA over the past two seasons, and while the Yankees may want to trade him, I see that as unlikely even if they pick up a large chunk of the remaining $33 million on his contract. His average fastball velocity, which peaked as high as 95.6 mph with the Marlins in 2005, was down to 92.7 in 2011. That's still plenty of velocity, but mixed with his lack of command and gopherball-itis, it's not enough to remain consistently effective. But enough to remain consistently frustrating.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins: Nolasco went 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 2008. He was prone to the home run, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio ranked second in the NL. His future seemed like it could include becoming one of the top pitchers in the league. While he's gone 37-30 over the past three seasons, his ERA has been 4.76 and his WHIP has increased each year. He still has an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio (although it declined a bit in 2011), so he should be putting up better numbers. But he hasn't, and opposing batters hit .295 off him in 2011. The stuff and control are there. But we're still waiting for him to get his ERA back under 4.00.

AL East: Three fixes for each team

November, 29, 2011
11/29/11
2:24
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For all the talk of the balance of power tilting towards the AL East, baseball's power division hasn't won a pennant in two years, and has as many world titles collectively as the St. Louis Cardinals over the last six. With the eventual one-game play-in to determine each league's wild-card team, the benefits of being second-best in the division have been erased. Over the past 10 seasons, the East has provided eight wild card teams.

So the stakes just got higher in one of the most competitive divisions in the league, while the new playoff structure might eventually create lottery opportunities for the Orioles or Blue Jays to reach a division series. Sticking with the theme David Schoenfield introduced for this series Monday, what are the three top priorities for the beasts of the AL East?

New York Yankees

1. Rotation depth: Who's No. 2?

Now that CC Sabathia has opted to stick around, the questions are who gets lined up behind him in 2012? How soon until top prospects Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances get chances to join Ivan Nova behind him? They're still stuck with A.J. Burnett for two more years, and seeing so much of the downside risk of signing him might understandably keep GM Brian Cashman from chasing C.J. Wilson. Bringing back Freddy Garcia at $5 million for another season of place-holding made sense, especially since they don't seem to know what to expect from Phil Hughes.

Likely solution: Sticking with Hughes and Burnett would be defensible in most organizations, but the need for a second stopper beyond Sabathia to put the Yankees in better postseason shape will compel them to chase a high-end vet. Don't be surprised when they ink Roy Oswalt as the best balance of short-term need, high price tag and quality.

2. Designated hitter: Open (Jorge Posada, free agent).

The job already belongs to Jesus Montero. The expectation of the offensive boost they'll get from Montero will no doubt fuel speculation that the Yankees could shop Nick Swisher in his last season before free agency. The Yankees will also add some down-on-his-luck veteran slugger to a split contract and a spring training invite to try and make the roster, not unlike Eric Chavez last February.

3. Infield depth: (Eduardo Nunez and … )

Derek Jeter will be 38 years old, and he's coming off his worst year. Alex Rodriguez hasn't managed to stay healthy and play a full season since 2007. Anticipating that he'll miss another 30-40 games in 2012 would be practical. And Nunez can't play short and third base if the Yankees are confronted with continuing decline from the Captain at the same time that A-Rod breaks down. A lefty bat to spot either starter would be handy.

Likely solution: Obvious free-agent candidates like Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto or Adam Kennedy would represent the most risk-averse solutions without providing much help at the plate. Signing Carlos Guillen would entail lots of risk, but he's played around the infield and if he was game for an incentive-laden deal, might get another shot at the postseason.

Tampa Bay Rays

1. First base: Open (Casey Kotchman, free agent)

Kotchman was less an actual incumbent and more like the temp you thank and then let loose. So the Rays are now in the position to explore their options and find something better. They won't get in on the Prince-Albert sweepstakes, but they might find Carlos Pena amenable now that he's found that the market isn't going to give him a huge long-term contract. But even that's fairly unlikely. Minor league professional hitter Russ Canzler shows up atop the depth charts for the time being after hitting .314/.401/.530 for Triple-A Durham; he could be part of a platoon if the Rays find a lefty-batting partner.

Likely solution: The Rays understand that their alternatives are fairly interchangeable, just as they were last year when they settled for Kotchman and Dan Johnson. There's always the opportunity to see if the A's would part with any of their collection of semi-interesting alternatives, because they'll have to pick from among Brandon Allen, Chris Carter and Daric Barton. A Barton/Canzler platoon would be typical of the organization's ability to make do with less.

2. Designated hitter: Open (Johnny Damon, free agent)

Damon has already expressed an interest in coming back, as well he might -- DHs who slug .418 aren't likely to be in a lot of demand, no matter how much they're seen as great clubhouse guys. Brandon Guyer's arrival in the outfield corner adds a good option to the Rays' lineup. They're not in dire need and will have the freedom to explore whatever opportunities crop up.

Likely solution: A lot like first base, there isn't a likely solution beyond the likelihood that the Rays might find a veteran willing to sign for a relatively-cheap contract in January -- like Damon did last year. It might even be Damon again. But it will be a matter of finding the man willing to take what the Rays will offer while providing a modicum of offense.

3. Catcher: Open (Kelly Shoppach, free agent; John Jaso, traded to Seattle)

Before you ask, no, signing Jose Molina for $1.5 million was not entirely the answer. But the question is whether a job-sharing arrangement between Molina and minor-league veteran Jose Lobaton will be. Lobaton is a switch-hitter with a career .259/.348/.410 line in the minors, and he's been strong-armed enough to throw people out at roughly a 30 percent clip.

Likely solution: Joe Maddon has been comfortable with cobbled-together platoons in the past, and working with this one while semi-prospect Robinson Chirinos recuperates from a broken wrist suffered in winter ball would be more of the same. But in light of recent rumors that the Rockies are shopping Chris Iannetta, it's hard not to think his blend of walks and power would make him exactly the kind of player at the right price for the Rays.

Boston Red Sox

ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes reports that the managerial search is down to Bobby Valentine and Gene Lamont, which is good news. Valentine would bring an articulate spokesman and a dugout aggression the Sox could probably use, while Lamont's merits as a tactician and his stint as a successful skipper on Chicago's South Side shouldn't be overlooked. We won't count this one, since it'll be resolved shortly.

1. Designated hitter: Empty (David Ortiz, free agent)

Papi's offense isn't the issue, the question is whether Father Time will ever catch up to the 36-year-old slugger. But after slugging .529 and .554 the last two years, he can afford to demand a multi-year deal, and the supply of people delivering that kind of power on the market is limited to four players. Ortiz will cost considerably less over a significantly shorter deal than Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder or Carlos Beltran.

Likely solution: Papi re-signs with the Red Sox for a multi-year deal that guarantees that his 400th career homer -- if he keeps aging gracefully, as he's at 349 now -- comes in a Boston uniform. Retaining his power will help let the Sox develop Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish in right field.

2. Closer: Empty?

If you'd asked this question in July in anticipation of Jonathan Papelbon's offseason defection as a free agent, you'd have said the job was Daniel Bard's to lose. But he may have lost it after four losses and three blown saves in September. Bobby Jenks was supposed to be some sort of insurance, but he can't be counted on between back woes and the pulmonary embolism that was diagnosed in September. So the question is whether the new brain trust wants to believe in Bard's talent, or if it would rather have an alternative.

Likely solution: The Phillies' Ryan Madson has been talked up as an obvious target, and as long as he gets paid top dollar he may be more flexible over who gets saves after a long career in setting up other people. The alternatives would be short-term deals with somebody famous (Francisco Rodriguez) to generate saves, or getting a less well-known veteran like Frank Francisco of the Blue Jays, since he'd be an asset whether he pitches in front of Bard or behind.

3. Infield: Shop depth to exploit the market's shortage of talent on the left side.

Between Jimmy Rollins' price tag, Rafael Furcal's fragility, and Aramis Ramirez's bulk, you can understand how a lot of teams feeling short at short or third will want to expand their alternatives. Between Marco Scutaro, Jed Lowrie and Mike Aviles the Sox have three useful players who can play third base or shortstop, and Lowrie and Aviles are both under club control for the next three years.

Likely solution: Don't be surprised if either Lowrie or Aviles gets dealt for additional relief help. For example, the Cubs' Sean Marshall's only under control for one more year, so he could certainly be available, and the Cubs could use a guy with the bat for third like Lowrie.

Toronto Blue Jays

1. Closer: Open (Francisco and Jon Rauch, free agents)

This may not be the preeminent need, but the one that GM Alex Anthopoulos will most readily address -- probably no differently than he did last winter when he trawled for short-term help and hauled in Francisco, Rauch and Octavio Dotel. This winter, he's also be losing Shawn Camp after already dealing away Jason Frasor, Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski during the season, so there are plenty of job openings in Toronto beyond the guy who will be getting the most save opportunities.

Likely solution: Another grab-bag of rented veterans who can be comfortable in the knowledge they'll have a shot at a few saves and a deadline deal to a contender.

2. Second base (Kelly Johnson, free agent)

After dealing away Aaron Hill to acquire Johnson -- and expecting that Johnson would file for free agency, yielding draft picks via an arbitration offer -- there's the very real danger that Johnson could just accept arbitration. As fascinating as Johnson is in sabermetric circles, he's had only one good year in the last three. That season was boosted by a .976 OPS in the D-backs' hitter-happy home. Johnson will be turning 30, his strikeout rate reached 26.6 percent last year, and he's not a defensive asset in the field or around the bag. One man's treasure is another man's trash, and the Jays may be stuck learning that Johnson might elicit a lot less interest than they hoped. If he stays, he could reasonably expect more than $6 million via arbitration, which wouldn't be the end of the world.

Likely solution: Johnson doesn't take arbitration, to the regret of everyone involved besides the Jays. The Jays end up having to shop around, because the market's thin. Don't be surprised if another deal with the Cardinals brings Ryan Theriot to Toronto for his last year before free agency.

3. Rotation starter

As much excitement as Ricky Romero deserves en route to ensuring his long-term commitment to the Blue Jays, the rest of the rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Brandon Morrow was talented and exasperating, and Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil both pitched badly enough to lose their jobs at different points of the season. Top prospects like Deck McGuire, Asher Wojciechowski, Drew Hutchison and Chad Jenkins aren't close to ready, and organizational survivors like Brad Mills, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch are far from sure things to round out a front five.

Likely solution: Henderson Alvarez didn't enjoy many top-prospect touts on the way up, but six quality starts in 10 turns for Toronto should get him one of the slots behind Romero, Morrow and Cecil. It will be interesting to see if the Jays keep the last spot open for Drabek or one of the organizational pitchers, or if they spring for a one-year rental with a veteran innings-eater like Aaron Harang to buy the bullpen some breathing room.

Baltimore Orioles

1. Front office.

The player development system has too often proven to be an organizational stepchild. Yappy marketing and Buck Showalter in the dugout didn't change that and couldn't; new GM Dan Duquette is charged with trying. Between faith in his Latin American contacts and his past track record with the Expos and Red Sox, the hope is that Duquette isn't merely the latest front-office time-server -- say, Syd Thrift in a different suit.

Likely solution: While other teams might be heading to the Winter Meetings looking to land big-name free agents, Duquette's best investments this winter should be the ones he makes in adding front-office help, coaches, instructors and scouts. The new CBA may have hamstrung creativity if you reduce that to dollars, but good scouting and better instruction generates its own rewards.

2. Starting pitching: 60 quality starts, fewest in MLB.

This was expected to be, if not an area of strength, or at least a unit that provided hope in the form of young talent. But Jake Arrieta hurt his elbow, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman took huge steps backward, and top pitching prospect Zach Britton put up a 5.76 ERA in 10 second-half starts. The bullpen had to absorb a ton of work from a rotation that struggled to deliver just 5.4 innings per start while allowing 5.9 runs per nine.

Likely solution: Stockpiling back-end rotation castoffs like Jo-Jo Reyes and Tommy Hunter will not be the solution; that's just hunting for the next Jeremy Guthrie and not finding him. If Duquette wants to make an immediate impact in a way that will show up in the 2012 standings, it might be to add a veteran starter who can be a positive example -- like Charlie Leibrandt did with the early-'90s Braves. While Mark Buehrle or Oswalt would be perfect as examples and as mentors, it's more likely the O's will have to settle for the likes of Joel Pineiro or perhaps a rehabbing Jason Marquis.

3. Infield: Who plays where?

Between concern over second baseman Brian Roberts' recovery from his concussion and questions over whether Mark Reynolds or Chris Davis can play third base, you might think the Orioles should be looking for help at second base and the hot corner. Maybe at first base too.

Likely solution: Take a look at the market, and you can conclude these are issues best left for spring training. Unless the Angelos clan empowers Duquette to blow the budget well past $90 million, the O's can't land a Pujols or Fielder at first base, and they shouldn't make the too-common Orioles mistake of overpaying for mediocre free agents. If Roberts can't come back, if there's one thing the system has, it's in-house alternatives at second (starting with prospect Ryan Adams), and the market for help at third base is thin enough to encourage them to be patient with Davis at the hot corner.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
ESPN Insider Matt Meyers has a piece on Adrian Beltre, arguing that the labels placed on Beltre throughout his career are unfounded and inaccurate. I agree with Matt's general assessment that Beltre has been a tremendously underrated and underappreciated player during his career. Matt points out that Beltre is 19th on Baseball-Reference.com's all-time WAR (wins abovement replacement) for third basemen (or 21st, depending on how you do your search).

Considering Beltre is 32 and coming off an excellent season, he should have more good years left and climb up that list, maybe close to the top 10. That would certainly seem to put him in the Hall of Fame discussion ... except: Except there is probably too little perception of Beltre as a Hall of Famer. Much of Beltre's value derives from his excellent defense. B-R rates him ninth all-time in runs saved among third basemen (behind, in case you want to know: Brooks Robinson, Buddy Bell, Robin Ventura, Clete Boyer, Scott Rolen, Graig Nettles, Mike Schmidt and Gary Gaetti). But Beltre also has 310 home runs and 1,113 RBIs. It's not too much of a stretch to see him topping 400 home runs and 1,500 RBIs ... and the only third basemen to do that are Schmidt and Chipper Jones. George Brett is the only other third baseman with 1,500 RBIs.

Still, Beltre will be facing an uphill battle, no matter where his career totals end up. But he's been a terrific player, even if he's flown under the radar much of his career.
A pair of really good baseball fellows joined me for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, as Jim Bowden and Dave Schoenfield helped me break down Tuesday’s packed day, and we looked ahead.

1. It’s all about A.J. Burnett. And a little about Curtis Granderson. Yankees and Tigers play on.

2. Will it matter against the Mighty Power Rangers? The Rays leave us as Adrian Beltre goes all Reggie in October.

3. The Phillies escaped with a win in part because of the evil intentional walk. If you were Tony La Russa, what would you have done?

4. Arizona breaks out the bats and forces a Brewers pitcher to new -- at least on the mound -- levels of frustration.

5. Adrian Gonzalez had a good season, but was it superficially good? An emailer needs answers!

So check out Wednesday’s packed Baseball Today as we talk about all the games, look ahead and even find time for the great Wildfire Schulte. Download now!
Don Kelly lined the ball to center field, ash connecting solidly with cowhide, a high screamer headed toward Curtis Granderson. The Yankees center fielder hesitated, took a step in ... and Yankees fans saw two years of misery and distress flash before their eyes.

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I don't think any major league player has been as maligned and criticized the past two seasons as A.J. Burnett. Fans have treated Burnett like a comic foil, because that's what fans do these days. Blind allegiance to your team, your players, no longer exists, certainly not in a city like New York, where losing or mediocrity is not tolerated. The media jumps all over every bad Burnett start, demands to know what went wrong, why he isn't racking up wins and strikeouts.

The fact is, A.J. Burnett has been only a slightly above average pitcher during his career for the most part, although announcers and talk radio jockeys still talk about his great stuff, even if he doesn't throw nearly as hard as he once did. His arm has nearly 2,000 innings of major league wear and tear on it, plus a Tommy John surgery. Part of the perception problem, of course, resides with his contract; Burnett didn't have to sign with the Yankees for $82.5 million back when he the left the Blue Jays, but he did and that creates certain expectations. When he signed with the Yankees his career ERA was 3.81, much of that compiled with the Marlins in a terrific park for pitchers. The contract made him one of the highest-paid pitchers in the game; at $16.5 million, he was the seventh-highest paid pitcher for 2011.

Burnett had a bad season in 2010. He had a bad season in 2011. He doesn't throw strikes consistently, but he threw 25 wild pitches this year -- the third-most in a season since 1920 -- and gave up 31 home runs. Needless to say, Yankee fans were not optimistic about his start in Game 4 against the Tigers.

* * * *


Granderson, of course, leaped up and behind him at the last second to haul in Kelly's drive. His initial misstep turned a difficult play into an extraordinary one, but it may be the play that saved the Yankees' season. What happens if the ball bounds off his glove?

Instead, the Tigers had left the bases stranded. Another few inches, and Kelly's liner goes over Granderson's head. Considering the distance to the center-field wall at Comerica Park and Kelly's speed, it's a three-run triple or possibly an inside-the-park home run.

Burnett had thrown 21 pitches and walked three batters in the first inning. But he had survived. The Yankees had survived. (And Jim Leyland may look back with regret at having Ramon Santiago bunt after Burnett had walked Austin Jackson to lead off the inning.)

Burnett settled down and, other than a Victor Martinez home run, lasted 5 2/3 innings unscathed. His curveball was catching the outside corner, the Tigers hitters were surprisingly aggressive, and Yankees fans were rooting for a guy they spent all season loathing. Meanwhile, the Yankees slowly and predictably pecked away at Rick Porcello, a pitcher who allowed a .321 average to left-handers this season. When Porcello gets his sinker down he can be effective, but he hasn't done that enough this season and certainly not on this night. The Yankees have too many lefties and switch-hitters for a guy like Porcello, who left too many pitches up in the zone. He battled for six innings, the game got ugly with the Yankees winning 10-1 and now we're headed back to the Bronx for Game 5.

The Yankees have to rate the edge. They have home-field advantage, Ivan Nova versus Doug Fister looks fairly even on paper, but the big edge is in the bullpen, where David Robertson and Mariano Rivera will be completely rested, having thrown just 1.1 innings between them in the series. Tigers leadoff man Jackson is hitting .083 and catcher Alex Avila, eighth in the AL in OPS during the regular season, is hitless. Even Alex Rodriguez snapped out of his funk with a base hit.

The best thing about all this? We can thank A.J. Burnett for getting us to a Game 5. There's nothing more exciting than all-hands-on-deck, do-or-die baseball. It's only the second division series since 2006 to go the distance. Get ready for anything. We won't see Burnett again this series, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see Justin Verlander at some point, trying to push the Tigers season one step further.
Did home-plate umpire Gerry Davis cost the Yankees the game last night? There is some feeling that CC Sabathia got squeezed a little more than Justin Verlander. Here, check out the location charts from Brooksbaseball at It's About the Money.

One of the bloggers from the site says both Sabathia and Verlander had five strikes called balls, while Sabathia had 13 balls called strikes and Verlander had 18 balls called strikes. Verlander threw 120 pitches to Sabathia's 106, so if that count is accurate, Verlander did benefit from a couple extra called strikes, but I don't see evidence that Sabathia was getting squeezed in comparison to Verlander.

Look, it looks like ump bashing is going to be a popular theme this year: Tony La Russa did it in the middle of the game of the other night, Joe Girardi whined last night. But the bottom line: Sabathia gave up 13 baserunners in 5.1 innings; that's not the umpire's fault. Verlander pitched through the tight strike zone to strike out 11 batters, while Sabathia could only put away three. As Ian O'Connor writes at ESPNNewYork, CC is to blame, not Davis ... and Sabathia knows that better than anyone.

Not to mention: No team has benefited from more blown calls over the years than the Yankees. I'm not defending Gerry Davis, but strike zones are never going to be perfect As long as the umps get all the calls in the field correct (well, and we avoid the Eric Gregg Strike Zone), I won't complain.
  • As Mike McClary points out The Daily Fungo, 12 of Jose Valverde's 19 pitches were called balls. With 53 pitches over two days, I can't foresee Jim Leyland using Valverde to close, unless he's forced to use Joaquin Benoit for a couple innings earlier in the game. Valverde says he'll be ready.
  • Bill Baer takes a closer look at Cliff Lee's Game 2 performance, breaking down how many of the 12 hits he allowed were unlucky and how many were Lee's "fault." I agree with Bill's general premise that Lee didn't pitch as poor as his final line indicates and that there's no reason not to expect a vintage Lee outing in his next start (if he gets one, of course). At the same time, I don't really agree with Bill's premise, as he seems to be saying that eight of the 12 hits were lucky. Lee was leaving a lot of balls in the middle of the plate and the Cardinals were hitting those pitches. Remember, at times Lee can be very hittable -- no matter his strikeout/walk ratio. He was one of only nine starters to allow 10 or more at least five times during the regular season. Unlucky a bit? Perhaps. Did he pitch well? No.
  • Mike Napoli is awesome.
  • Arizona turns to rookie Josh Collmenter in Game 3, over veteran Joe Saunders. As Jack Moore writes, Collmenter relies on deception and his funky over-the-top delivery. Jack reports that Collmenter hasn't pitched as well the second or third time he faces a team; this will be his third start against the Brewers.
  • A bunch of notes on the Rangers, including some historic performances of sorts from Colby Lewis (good) and Mike Adams (bad).
  • Yes, you know this: The Yankees now turn to A.J. Burnett.
  • Finally, for a good laugh: Check out this video on the new movie about the Yankees, "Too Much Moneyball."
Eric Karabell and Mark Simon hosted Monday's Baseball Today podcast and among the things they discussed:

1. Eric isn't ready to write off the Diamondbacks yet and believes we could see the home team win every game of this series.

2. Did the Phillies stick with Cliff Lee too long? He gave up 12 hits after all. Plus the silly stat of the day.

3. Nice job for the Rays to get a split in Texas, although they missed some chances to win Game 2. And do you trust Neftali Feliz?

4. Give credit to Max Scherzer for an excellent outing on Sunday, plus the boys weigh in on A.J. Burnett's Game 4 start.

5. Mark has some postseason records you are probably not aware of.

Plus: Reader emails, including the ridiculous question of the day, Monday's preview, and more!
By know, you've probably heard of Jose Valverde's guarantee: "I think the series will finish in our house," Valverde said. "They have a good team, but the series is not [coming] back to New York."

A lot will be made of Valverde's words, of course. But what do they really mean? Are Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson going to play harder now? Is A.J. Burnett more likely to pitch better? Of course not. The media will blow it up, the fans will rip Valverde and if the Tigers end up losing -- especially if he blows a save -- he'll get the blame for the defeat.

Now if he does blow a save, it won't be because of the guarantee. It's because he's Jose Valverde! The fact that he hasn't blown a save is one of the minor miracles of the 2011 season. He walks too many guys, gives up a few home runs. He plays with fire. Simply put: He's probably due.

Which is why Jim Leyland almost certainly wishes Papa Grande had just kept quiet.

Other links
  • Alex Rodriguez is hitless in the series. He's hitting under .200 since his return from the disabled list in late August. Should the Yankees move A-Rod down in the order? Brien Jackson of It's About the Money has a few thoughts.
  • Somehow, Joe Girardi managed not to use Rafael Soriano and David Robertson in Sunday's game. Bad decision?
  • Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley gives his kudos to Tony La Russa, both for perhaps influencing Jerry Meals' strike zone and his late-game maneuverings. Personally, I feel La Russa's whole strike zone comment was a bit overrated. Chris Carpenter just didn't have it last night. He couldn't locate his fastball and threw too many meaty pitches down the middle. Charlie Manuel was later seen yelling from the Philly dugout -- an inning after Albert Pujols had complained about striking out. So maybe Meals didn't have a great game, but I don't think La Russa influenced him in any way and, if anything, both sides were unhappy with him. For St. Louis, the game changed because Fernando Salas and Octavio Dotel simply came on and pitched well. As for the late-game moves, I think Tony learned his lesson: You cannot let Ryan Howard beat you with a right-handed pitcher on the mound in a critical situation late in the game.
  • Yes, Yuniesky Betancourt drew a key walk in Milwaukee's Game 2 victory over Arizona.
  • It was a disastrous weekend for Kirk Gibson and the Diamondbacks. As these tweets show.
  • ESPN NewYork's Ian O'Connor says A.J. Burnett should strike fear in Yankees fans -- not the Tigers. All this negativity has me thinking Burnett will throw a gem.
  • ESPN Insider's Dayn Perry resets the AL series and says the Tigers and Rays now hold the slight edge.
  • Nothing to do with the postseason, but Rafael Palmeiro returned to Baltimore for the first time since 2005 and still insists he didn't knowingly take steroids. Now ... what if he's telling the truth?
Well, this much we've learned in the Tigers-Yankees series: Baseball in the rain stinks.

A baseball game shouldn't be decided by a catcher slipping on the plastic on-deck circle chasing a potential game-ending foul pop, and a pitcher trying to keep his hand dry trying to grip the ball, and a batter trying to wipe away the drips of water falling from the brim of his batting helmet with the game on the line.

But baseball seems determined to play through the rain, no matter the size of the puddles on the field or the strength of the downpour.

With the rain falling in buckets, Robinson Cano was facing Jose Valverde with two runners on and two outs in the bottom of the ninth, the Tigers up 5-3. It was an enormously tense situation, set in motion when Valverde -- he of the zero blown saves this season -- entered with a 5-1 lead and gave up a leadoff homer to Nick Swisher and a triple to Jorge Posada, who later scored on a sac fly. With a runner on and two outs, Valverde appeared to get out of it when Curtis Granderson hit a pop fly near the Detroit dugout.

Sure enough, Alex Avila slipped on the wet on-deck circle and the ball plunked harmlessly into the mud. You can point out that third baseman Brandon Inge should have hustled over to make the play, but that's another argument. When Granderson then walked, it appeared this would turn into one of those classic Yankees postseason moments, like Jeffrey Maier helping Derek Jeter, or the missed third strike on Tino Martinez in the 1998 World Series followed by Tino's grand slam, or Jeremy Giambi not sliding.

So there stood Cano, trying to keep the rain out of his eyes. There stood Valverde, keeping his hand under his armpit and then in his crotch to keep it dry. He kept firing fastballs, perhaps worried about getting a good grip on his splitter. Cano fouled off two with two strikes before finally grounding out to second.

For the Tigers, disaster was avoided.

For the Yankees, the worry sets in.

After all, Justin Verlander goes in Game 3 for Detroit. And A.J. Burnett goes in Game 4 for the Yankees, and no matter how well he pitched against the Red Sox in his final start of the season, the words "A.J. Burnett" and "playoff start" have Yankee fans already taking Tylenol and praying to their Don Mattingly shrines.

That final inning ended up obscuring the fine effort from Detroit starter Max Scherzer. Give him and Avila credit: They took what plate umpire Eric Cooper was giving them.

With Cooper liberally giving both the outside corner to left-handed batters and the low strike at the knees, Scherzer and Avila kept pounding outside and pounding down. He wasn't about to make a mistake inside, not with that short porch in right field, not considering he allowed four home runs at Yankee Stadium back in his first start of the season.

The Yankees understandably grew frustrated with Cooper's strike zone, to the point that Swisher, leading off the fifth with the Yankees still hitless at the time, complained about a called third strike that was actually right down the middle of the plate at the knees. Avila had set up outside for a changeup, but Scherzer dropped down a bit and fired across his body. The angle of the pitch caught Swisher by surprise. Scherzer will do that: change his arm angles a bit, and even though his fastball will sit at 93 to 95 with movement, he mixes in a lot of changeups and sliders. As always, the Yankees were patient and drew four walks, but could manage only two hits off Scherzer, the first off those Cano's blooper in front of Delmon Young in the sixth.

Scherzer finally got in trouble in the seventh when Swisher walked on a 3-2 pitch and Posada singled to center on the first offering. With the Tigers leading 4-0, Jim Leyland made the right move in going to top setup guy Joaquin Benoit, instead of his third- or fourth-best reliever, as some managers would do in the seventh. Benoit had a 1.33 ERA and allowed opposing hitters a .116 average in the second half. But Leyland understood the urgency of the situation, and with a sudden rainstorm hitting, Benoit got Russell Martin on a fly to right, pinch-hitter Eric Chavez swinging and Jeter looking.

So now the Yankees may be in a bit of trouble. One more bad sign: Alex Rodriguez is hitless through two games and drew some boos from the home crowd after popping out to second in the eighth. He's trying to play with a bad knee, and Joe Girardi certainly doesn't want to replicate the uproar of 2006 when Joe Torre moved Rodriguez down to eighth in the lineup in Game 4 of the Division Series against the Tigers, but A-Rod just doesn't look like a cleanup hitter right now (he's hit .171 since returning from the DL on Aug. 21).

We're definitely a long way from panic mode for the pinstripes. CC Sabathia, after all, is every bit as capable of a big game as Verlander. And then there's Valverde ... I'm not sure even Tigers fans have complete confidence in him.
The most unpredictable series of the first round just became about 10,000 times more difficult to predict.

Game 1 for the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees will resume Saturday night. Ivan Nova will enter in relief for the Yankees. Doug Fister will enter in relief for the Tigers. CC Sabathia will take the mound again in Game 3 on Monday; presumably, so will Justin Verlander.

Good luck projecting what will happen now. A.J. Burnett might get a start. Brad Penny might get one. Neither guy is any good, which means more pressure on the bullpens, and more pressure on Joe Girardi and Jim Leyland to pull pitchers at the right time and use the right relievers.

You know what? I like it. If the series had gone off as scheduled, the Yankees would have used two starting pitchers -- Sabathia and Nova -- to start four of the possible five games. That's not baseball. In the regular season, you're supposed to have depth in your rotation. You're supposed to have four or five quality starters. Heck, the Yankees won the World Series in 2009 basically on the strength of Sabathia and Andy Pettitte. Now we'll see what they have beyond the big guy.

And same thing with the Tigers. This is their opportunity to show that Verlander isn't a one-man pitching staff, for Fister to show that his late-season dominance wasn't merely the result of facing soft American League Central lineups, for Max Scherzer to show that his ace-like stuff can show up in a big game.

My first instinct says this gives an edge to Detroit. I like Fister over Nova in their two potential matchups; I like Scherzer over Freddy Garcia in the revised Game 2 matchup; I don't like the idea of Burnett starting at all. And as good as the Yankees' bullpen is at the back end with Rafael Soriano, David Robertson and Mariano Rivera, this likely will mean guys such as Luis Ayala and Cory Wade will have to pitch important innings, since Garcia and Burnett are unlikely to pitch deep into the game. Your lasting impression of Ayala and Wade, of course, is Wednesday night's blown lead in Tampa, but they actually were very effective this season: Ayala had a 2.09 ERA in 56 innings, and Wade had a 2.04 ERA in 39.2 innings.

It certainly isn't the ideal situation Girardi and Leyland wanted to deal with, but this aspect of the potential chaotic nature of the postseason is so compelling. It's Randy Johnson and Jack McDowell pitching in relief in Game 5 of the 1995 division series between the Yankees and Mariners; it's Kevin Brown pitching in relief for San Diego in the 1998 National League Championship Series; it's John Smoltz -- when he was still a starter -- getting a save in Game 2 of the 1999 NLCS, starting Game 4 and entering again in relief in Game 6.

There's even a silver lining in all this for the Tigers and Yankees: With Sabathia and Verlander going again Monday, either one would now be lined up to start in Game 1 of the league championship series.

That is, assuming they don't come out of the bullpen in Game 5. Now how awesome would that be?
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