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Keith Law and I gathered for Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast in which we took a closer look at Monday’s games and previewed what should be an exciting Tuesday night as well!

1. Chicago White Sox pitcher Jake Peavy shut out the Athletics on Monday, and he used a different repertoire than we’re used to.

2. The Los Angeles Dodgers are off to a seemingly great start, but remove Matt Kemp from this offense and it’s not special. We discuss outfielder Andre Ethier and prospect Alex Castellanos.

3. Jair Jurrjens pitched badly against the Dodgers on Monday and got demoted to Triple-A. What’s his future, and how do the Braves compensate?

4. Our emailers have questions about Diamondbacks prospect Trevor Bauer and how the Mets, Padres and Nationals seek their first no-hitters!

5. Our look at Tuesday’s pitchers centers on Josh Johnson, Yu Darvish and Adam Wainwright.

So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast, because Aubrey Huff played second base the other day and we think it’s funny.

The season is young, but never too young to raise a few issues we've seen so far. Here are 10:

1. Yu Darvish's control
In Japan, Darvish was known not only for his terrific stuff but his ability to throw it with precision. In 2011, he walked just 36 batters in 232 innings. Through three starts with the Rangers he's walked 13 in 17.2 innings. I've watched all three of those starts and there's no denying his ability, with good movement on his fastball and a sharp-breaking curve. The command hasn't been there, however, and I do see some Dice-K syndrome: Nibbling at the corners, not pitching inside, not trusting the quality of his stuff. It's early and I do think he'll be fine in the long run, but there is at least a little reason to doubt he'll be the No. 1 many projected.

2. Adam Wainwright
Wainwright has had a tough start this season as he dropped to 0-3, 9.88 after a five-inning outing against the Reds on Thursday. He gave up fourth-inning home runs to Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick, giving him five home runs allowed in just 13.2 innings. One positive sign is that he has 14 strikeouts, an indication that the stuff is still there. From the heat map below, we have his curveball location in 2012 on the left versus 2010, when batters hit just .170 against it. He's only thrown it 45 times so far, but it appears the command in that lower quadrant of the strike zone isn't quite there yet.

3. Marlins' defense
I was worried about Miami's defense before the season and so far that's a legitimate concern, as entering Thursday the Marlins ranked 29th in Defensive Runs Saved at minus-13 runs (only the Rockies ranked worse). The biggest holes so far? Jose Reyes is at minus-6 runs and Hanley Ramirez is at minus-2. Factor in Logan Morrison's plodding defense in left, Emilio Bonifacio's inexperience in center and Giancarlo Stanton's testy knee and this could be a season-long issue.

4. Angels' plate discipline
Entering Thursday's games, the Angels ranked 27th in the majors in walk percentage, ahead of just the Pirates, Royals and Phillies. The Angels also ranked second behind in the Phillies in percentage of pitches outside the strike zone they've swung at (33.1 percent). No matter how many home runs you hit, it's difficult to string together some rallies without drawing a few walks. The major culprits: Kendrys Morales (no walks in 42 plate appearances), Peter Bourjos (no walks in 32 PAs) and Vernon Wells (one walk in 47 PAs).

5. Tampa Bay's bullpen
As bad as Boston's bullpen has been (6.63 ERA), Tampa's has struggled even more with an 8.64 ERA. The Rays pieced together a decent pen a year ago from the likes of Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, Juan Cruz and others. That pen benefited from having to throw the fewest innings in the majors. With Farnsworth on the DL, Fernando Rodney has been getting the save opportunities and he's done the job, but the rest of the pen has been shaky. Of concern: While Boston's relievers have 31 strikeouts and 12 walks, Tampa's have 26 strikeouts against 20 walks.

6. Josh Johnson
For all the concern over Tim Lincecum's drop in velocity and unsightly 10.54 ERA, the ace pitcher I'd be most worried about is Johnson. While Lincecum has 16 strikeouts and four walks in 13.2 innings, Johnson doesn't have any positives on his ledger: 16.2 IP, 28 H, 6 BB, 8 SO. Both have been burned by high BABIPs (.444 for Johnson) and Johnson hasn't allowed a home run, but the low strikeout rate is a big concern and his fastball velocity is also. Like Wainwright, Johnson is coming off an injury, but you have to hope the shoulder is OK.

7. Phillies' lineup
No surprise here with the absence of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, but it doesn't help that Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino have combined for just one home run. Even when Howard and Utley return, the Phillies will need a lot more production from Rollins and Victorino.

8. Scott Rolen
The Reds were counting on Rolen to hit cleanup, but Dusty Baker has already moved him out of that spot after his .171 start through 13 games. Considering his long injury history and struggles in 2011, the end of the line may be approaching for the 37-year-old third baseman. The Reds may eventually have to turn to Todd Frazier, but his minor league track record suggests bench player, not starting third baseman on a playoff team.

9. Brent Morel and Gordon Beckham
The White Sox have a solid rotation, a solid bullpen and ... well, they'll need offense and they were counting on these two infielders to improve from 2011. But Morel is hitting .103 with 18 strikeouts in 39 at-bats and Beckham is hitting .152 with 12 strikeouts in 33 at-bats. Neither has homered.

10. Kids running out on the field
What kind of example is this for the adults?

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

In 2009 and 2010, Adam Wainwright was as good as just about any pitcher in baseball. He ranked third in adjusted ERA behind only Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay. Only five guys threw more innings and only CC Sabathia won more games. Wainwright finished third and then second in the National League Cy Young voting.

He hurt his elbow in spring training last year and missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. His start Saturday against Zack Greinke is one of the more intriguing matchups of baseball's first weekend. Given Chris Carpenter's health issues, a successful return by Wainwright is even more imperative for the Cardinals.

Wainwright's signature pitch was his knee-buckling 12-to-6 curveball that he threw nearly 29 percent of the time in 2010. The only starters who threw a higher percentage of curveballs than Wainwright that year were Wandy Rodriguez and Gio Gonzalez. Two things made Wainwright's curve tough to attack: (1) He set it up with good velocity and location on his fastball, throwing 91-92 mph; (2) great location on the curve. Check the heat maps below: Wainwright spotted his curve low and away to left-handed hitters ... and low and away to right-handed hitters.



So while everybody's eyes will likely be on the radar gun, it may be Wainwright's command of his curve that tells us how he'll do as he returns. No matter what happens Saturday, it's an anticipated game for the Cardinals and their fans. "It really is a big deal," Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak told MLB.com. "I'm probably going to have a few butterflies before that game even starts, just knowing how hard he's worked to get to where he is."

Meanwhile, Greinke gets the ball for the Brewers on the heels of Yovani Gallardo's four-homer Opening Day stink bomb. If you want a Cy Young candidate in the National League not named Halladay, Kershaw or Lee, Greinke may be your guy. Greinke finished 16-6 with a 3.83 ERA in 28 starts in 2011, and while that 3.83 ERA might not impress you, it comes with a big caveat: an extremely unlucky average on balls in play in the first half of the season.

Greinke's BABIP in the first half was .349, which led to a 5.45 ERA even though he had 99 strikeouts and just 16 walks in 74.1 innings. In the second half, his BABIP returned to a more normal level of .304 and he posted a 2.59 ERA.

Here's a heat map of Greinke's pitch locations in the first and second halves of 2011. While this doesn't tell the whole story of setting up hitters and so on, you can see the hot points are pretty similar. It does suggest that Greinke was merely unlucky in the first half, with a few too many bloopers, flares and infield hits.



What does it mean? If Greinke pitches like he did in 2011, when he led the NL in strikeouts per nine innings at 10.5, he's more likely to come closer to that 2.59 ERA than 3.83. Greinke also loved pitching at home last season -- he went 11-0 in 15 starts while averaging 11.3 K's per nine. The one aspect Greinke needs to improve on to become a legit Cy Young contender -- and remember, he won the American League award in 2009 with the Royals -- is to pitch deeper into games. He pitched more than seven innings only twice last season.

After Gallardo's disaster, there's nothing the Brewers would like more than eight innings from Greinke and the chance to hand the ball to John Axford with the lead.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.

1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?

2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.

3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.

4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.

5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.

6. Yu Darvish.

7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.

8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.

9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?

10. Jose Canseco's tweets.

11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.

12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.

13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.

14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.

15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:

A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.

Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.

18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)

19. Defensive runs saved!

Your leaders by position in 2011:

C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward

20. The Sandman.

21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.

(Read full post)

Spring stats mean nothing! But they're fun to look at. A few highlights ... and lowlights (stats from major league games only):

• Some people haven't bought in on Paul Goldschmidt as they worry about the strikeouts, but one reason I do like him is he'll draw some walks to go with the power: He's hitting .265 with three homers, but with 12 walks (and 13 strikeouts).
• Josh Collmenter hasn't pitched well for Arizona: Five walks and just four strikeouts in 12 innings. He'll start in the rotation but you wonder how soon before we see Trevor Bauer.
• Braves prospect Julio Teheran has somehow allowed nine home runs in 13 innings.
• Jeff Samardzija earned a spot in the Cubs' rotation by showing good stuff but just as impressively has walked just one batter in 20 innings. This from a guy who averaged 5.1 walks per nine innings in relief in 2011.
• Not good news for the Cubs: First baseman Bryan LaHair has 16 strikeouts and one walk. Is the 29-year-old Triple-A vet pressing now that he's been given a chance to start after hitting .331 at Iowa? His SO/BB ratio at Triple-A was 111/60.
• Joey Votto is hitting .214 without a home run. I like how people will make a big deal when somebody does well ... but not a big deal when a star player doesn't do well. Again, spring stats ... for entertainment purposes only!
• Dexter Fowler has had a miserable spring for the Rockies, hitting .118 in 51 at-bats with 16 strikeouts.
• Clemens has pitched five scoreless innings for the Astros. Paul Clemens, that is.
• Matt Kemp says he wants to go 50-50. He's not going to do it swinging like this: 21 strikeouts and one walk. Ouch.
• Carlos Zambrano has 14 walks in 17.2 innings. But 18 strikeouts. So ... I think it's safe to say nobody knows what to expect from Big Z.
• Zack Greinke has perhaps been the most impressive pitcher this spring with a 28/2 strikeout/walk ratio and no home runs allowed. That's pretty tough to do in Arizona, where the ball flies.
• Sticking with the Brewers, Jonathan Lucroy is hitting .513 (20-for-39). This has nothing to do with that .513 average, but I like Lucroy as a breakout candidate.
• Jason Bay hasn't homered or driven in a run for the Mets and has petitioned to move in the spring training fences.
• Roy Halladay has allowed six home runs in 20 innings. He gave up 10 in 233.2 innings last season.
• Is this the year Pedro Alvarez breaks out? Umm ... well, with 20 K's and one walk I guess we can be positive and make a Matt Kemp comparison.
• One of my sleeper relievers of the year is Brad Brach of the Padres; he's looked good with a 14/2 K/BB ratio.
• What will the Giants do with Brandon Belt? He's hitting .407 with seven doubles and three homers in 59 at-bats.
• Adam Wainwright has a 1.45 ERA for the Cardinals but just nine strikeouts (and six walks) in 18.2 innings.
• Davey Johnson says he wants to bat Ian Desmond leadoff. He has 18 strikeouts and two walks while hitting .299.

The news that Chris Carpenter is “out indefinitely” is an ominous development for the St. Louis Cardinals, but should the reigning champs hit the panic button? With their rotation's strength -- even without Carpenter -- they don’t have to.

This is not to say losing Carpenter is something the Cardinals can shrug off easily. If the weakness in his shoulder is akin to what shut him down early in 2004 and helped him miss almost all of 2008, there’s cause for concern. But because of a strong farm system, they’re not without quality options.

The nicest way to think about the Cardinals’ predicament is that with Carpenter out, they’re essentially putting one ace on the shelf as their other ace is coming back from his own injury. Adam Wainwright’s back in action from Tommy John surgery and looking good as he gets in gear for the regular season. Wainwright spun five shutout innings against the Marlins on Friday afternoon -- striking out five. The lone walk he surrendered suggests the command troubles that so often afflict pitchers coming back from the procedure might be less of a problem for him.

Of course, spring stats don’t really mean all that much beyond the warm fuzzies they generate. The numbers that Wainwright will really have to replace are the 230-plus innings, 34 starts, and 21 quality starts Carpenter gave the Cardinals last season. That’s not the biggest challenge for Wainwright if he’s all the way back to full health and dealing the way he used to: He did manage 25 quality starts in 33 turns in 2010, after all.

The question is not whether Wainwright is good enough to replicate Carpenter's 2011 season, but what other question marks does the team have?

First, can Kyle Lohse keep doing what he did? Last year’s 3.39 ERA and 14 wins were a considerable improvement from the injury-marred 2009-2010 seasons. Projection systems like ZiPS (from Dan Szymborski of ESPN Insider) and PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus are both forecasting baseline projections with an ERA a full run higher. The good news? Well, he’s healthy, his 2011 FIP of 3.64 suggests he wasn’t that much outside of his possible range, and the Cardinals might boast stronger interior defense this year than last.

That brings us to Jake Westbrook, who’s coming off a fairly poor season by his standards. Here again, FIP suggests he was ill-served by ball-in-play outcomes. His 2011 ERQ was 4.66, his FIP 4.22. Give him the benefit of Rafael Furcal at shortstop and Daniel Descalso or Tyler Greene at second, and his ground-ball repertoire might lead to more outs in Lance Berkman's glove at first base.

But most importantly, there’s Lance Lynn, the still-promising prospect taking Carpenter's spot in the rotation. Lynn isn’t just some kid being thrown into the deep end -- according to Baseball America he was the organization’s sixth-best prospect before 2011, and his blend of a consistent low-90s fastball, hard sinker and power curve is the stuff good big-league starters are made of. Projections for Lynn suggest ERAs in the 3.80-4.10 range, and if that’s your last man, you’ve got a pretty good rotation.

It’s also worth remembering that last year’s Cardinals didn’t get everything right at first, even as they struggled to replace Wainwright. They indulged a long, and ultimately unsuccessful, experiment with Kyle McClellan in the rotation before trading for Edwin Jackson for the stretch run. It might be reductionist to say Lynn + an eventually healthy Carpenter is better than McClellan + Jackson, but it also has the advantage of being probably true.

Finally, there’s always the option of bringing up top prospect Shelby Miller who had a tremendous half season at Double-A last year. Miller already figures into the Cardinals long-term plans beyond 2012 -- after Lohse's and perhaps Westbrook's (the club has an option) contracts end.

While the Cardinals initially have to deal with the unfulfilled promise of having Wainwright and Carpenter in the rotation at the same time, they have the talent to succeed in the meantime. This is bad news for the champs, but it’s not the worst news. As they proved last year, they’ve survived this kind of setback as well as the failure of a Plan B. It won’t make things any easier, but there’s no reason to count them out.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

• ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski asks: Is there another Jose Bautista lingering near the bottom of the ESPN 500 list? Dan throws out some interesting names, including Travis Snider and Pedro Alvarez, although both of them were former first-round picks and one-time top prospects. Of course, what makes any Bautista comparison difficult is that he hasn't just had a couple of nice seasons out of nowhere; he's had two seasons that made him one of the best players in baseball. There may be a more systematic way of doing this: Check players who were (A) never top prospects; (B) had some time in the majors before blossoming into an MVP candidate. I have to think Bautista is fairly unique in this regard. Worth looking at during some down time.
• Tristan Cockcroft has a list of players he's not excited about. Tristan is writing for a fantasy baseball audience, but I like his support evidence. Names such as Adam Wainwright and Dee Gordon will provide some debate.
• Eric Karabell has updated his fantasy top 100. He's sticking with Ryan Braun at No. 1.
• One more link from our fantasy department: AJ Mass looks at the Rays and whether the hype surrounding Matt Moore is justified.
• Mets Today has a roundup of all the fallout from the court decision regarding the Mets.
• Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman has a piece on ESPNLosAngeles.com on the Clayton Kershaw-Tim Lincecum rivalry.
• How do the Brewers replace Prince Fielder? In Part 1 of a 2012 preview, Disciples of Uecker examines whether Aramis Ramirez will come close to Fielder's 2011 production.
• Harper Gordek is worried about a Nationals lineup that may open up with Rick Ankiel hitting fifth. Can the pitching staff prevent enough runs to make the Nationals contenders?
• Michael Baumann on Chase Utley, Freddy Galvis and panic (or lack of it) in Philly.
• Brenden Lowery breaks down Carlos Santana and his approach from both sides of the plate in 2011. With heat maps!
• Craig Brown examines the Royals trade in which they acquired catcher Humberto Quintero to fill in for the injured Salvador Perez and outfielder Jason Bourgeois. If the word "train wreck" is used as descriptive medicine, it may not be a cure.
• Here's what the Red Sox's 25-man roster may look like.
• One thing the Twins have: Guys who can play center field. With Denard Span, Ben Revere, Joe Benson and prospect Aaron Hicks, should the Twins consider dealing from their surplus?
• Chris Quick with an interesting study on Giants infielder Emmanuel Burriss: With his lack of power what are the odds he can be of some value at the plate?
• Will first base be a problem for the Cardinals?
• Ramon Santiago for Tigers MVP!
• Finally, a fun list of the top 10 final seasons, in honor of Will Clark's 2000.

First the SweetSpot network took on the AL teams. Now they look at the NL. Which players are bloggers most excited to watch this season, and why?

Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton

Upton was finally healthy for an entire season in 2011, and met all the lofty expectations placed on him in the second year of a six-year, $51.25 million contract signed when he was 22. He set career highs in homers (31), RBI (88) and stolen bases (21, caught nine times), while compiling a .289/.369/.529 line. Through their age-23 season, there have been only four others to match Upton’s 91 homers, 62 stolen bases and 119 OPS+: Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, Ken Griffey Jr. and Orlando Cepeda. Pretty elite company, and Upton still has time to mature as a player and team leader. I’m looking forward to watching this multifaceted young man do his thing again in 2012. -- Diane Firstman, Value Over Replacement Grit

Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward

A healthy Heyward has to be the player Braves fans are most excited to see this season. Through injuries, bad habits developed while playing injured and benchings, just about everything that could have gone wrong for such a talent did go wrong last year. Despite all of that, Heyward never hung his head or complained and actually managed to produce slightly above-league-average value in right field. Heyward has reportedly straightened his swing out this offseason and has really worked hard to get his game back on track. If Heyward can get a little more elevation on his swing, while maintaining the other aspects of his rookie performance, Braves fans could once again witness a once-in-a-generation talent leading the team to a successful season. -- Franklin Rabon, Capitol Avenue Club

Chicago Cubs: Travis Wood

In 2010, Wood made his big league debut for the Reds in an outing against the Cubs. He was brought in this offseason as part of the deal that sent Sean Marshall packing. For some, that was a disappointment considering Wood’s ERA last year was 4.84, but if we look beyond that we see that Wood posted a FIP ERA of 4.06, and Bill James projects him for an ERA of 3.75 in 2012. Also factor in that Great American Ballpark is a tough place to pitch; Wood had a 5.30 in the Gap vs. 3.58 on the road. Wrigley is not the hitters’ park we’ve all been told it is, primarily due to the wind blowing in often early in the year. The move from Cincinnati should do a lot toward boosting Wood’s production and confidence. -- Joe Aiello, View From the Bleachers

Cincinnati Reds: Mat Latos

Anticipation is building steadily for Latos' debut in a Cincinnati uniform. At 24 years of age and with a couple of excellent seasons already under his belt, the sky is the limit for him. For Reds fans, there is the hope that the club will have a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation for the first time in a couple of decades. Yes, there is reason for legitimate excitement in the Queen City. -- Chad Dotson, Redleg Nation

Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki

It’s a debate in my mind between Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Both have tremendous gloves, bats and arms. Tulo trained this offseason with Jason Giambi in Las Vegas, and one could extrapolate some motivation from Dan O'Dowd's offseason acquisitions and trades. (O'Dowd believes the team needs leaders and better clubhouse guys, so what does that say about Tulo who plays the most important position on the field, is signed through 2020 and the face of the franchise?). What will Tulo do this year? I think 30 homers, Gold Glove-level defense and solidifying his place as the best player in baseball is a sure bet. Are the playoffs a sure bet for the Rockies? MVP for Tulo? I can't wait to see! -- Travis Lay, Blake Street Bulletin

Houston Astros: Jordan Lyles

With all of the changes, everyone seems to have forgotten that Lyles was recently the Astros’ top prospect. How quickly a young player that showed real promise last year has become overlooked in Houston. He's only 21 years old and had a number of very promising starts last year, posting a fair 4.41 ERA through July before running out of gas and getting shelled in August and September. He clearly needs to continue to build his stamina and strengthen himself to last the entire season. I'm interested to see how he continues to progress and if we can see him grow into the kind of player that can withstand the rigors of an entire major league season. I don't know how the Astros faithful have forgotten about Lyles so fast, but I think they'll be quickly and pleasantly reminded why he was considered a top prospect. -- Austin Swafford, Austin’s Astros 290 Blog

Los Angeles Dodgers: Kemp and Kershaw

Heaven knows it's hard not to be excited about the return of Juan Uribe or the potential of having Juan Rivera for a full season. But even so, there's a small, small part of me that is intrigued by these fellas named Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. They made a bit of an impression last year, and I can't say I'm not going to be, well ... OK, hanging on their every swing and pitch. But to avoid being too reliant on last year's stars, the new Dodger Roadrunner, Dee Gordon, will also be an exciting player to watch. -- Jon Weisman, Dodger Thoughts

Miami Marlins: Logan Morrison

The player I'm truly most excited to see don a Marlins uniform this season is Logan Morrison. Following a splendid sophomore season in 2011, Morrison enters the new season as one of the game's top outfielders in the National League. With a solid approach and some power, a full season from Morrison could result in at least five additional wins for the Fish -- assuming Morrison can remain healthy. -- David Gershman, Marlins Daily

Milwaukee Brewers: Zack Greinke

Last season, the Brewers didn't even get to see their prized acquisition participate in spring training, as Greinke broke a rib playing pickup basketball and missed all of spring and the first month of the season. This season, no basketball for the former Cy Young award winner. He'll be there through spring training and Brewer fans hope to avoid the slow start he suffered through last season. Greinke posted just a 5.63 ERA despite an 80:12 K:BB ratio in May and June last season (mostly thanks to eight home runs) before calming down in the second half. Greinke finished strong, posting a 2.80 ERA thanks to a .233/.293/.373 line allowed in July, August and September. -- Jack Moore, Disciples of Uecker

New York Mets: David Wright

After a winter of discontent for Mets fans, it’s hard to be excited about anyone in particular. The team is in desperate financial straits, is slashing payroll at record rates, and appears destined to finish in last place. Wright, the one player for whom I reserve excitement, may not even be on the team after July 31. Still, I’m highly anticipating his 2012 performance, because after two disappointing seasons I’m convinced that Wright has too much pride to have a third. For the first time in his career, the Mets are “his” team -- he’s the de facto leader, the man who sets the example for everyone else. Chances are, Wright is determined to have a career year, and will pound opposing pitching with a savage vengeance -- all in the name of leading the Mets to a less-than-90-loss season. -- Joe Janish, Mets Today

Philadelphia Phillies: Antonio Bastardo

It was easy to be impressed by the sustained excellence of Atlanta's Jonny Venters last season, but Bastardo was quietly in the same neighborhood. Bastardo had a monster 2011 in which he struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings and held opponents to a .524 OPS. If he can even approach his 2011 performance, Bastardo, along with Jonathan Papelbon and the Phillies' army of young guys who throw hard (Mike Stutes, Justin De Fratus, David Herndon and so on), gives the Phillies' bullpen the potential to be one of the best in the National League. -- Michael Baumann, Crashburn Alley

Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez

While Andrew McCutchen remains eminently exciting, we have a firm grasp on his star-level capabilities. I’m more excited to see whether Alvarez can rebound from his terrible sophomore season and get back to where his debut left off. The Pirates have a chance at a bright future, but all of their elite prospects are several years away. If there is any hope to be a competitive team in 2012, Alvarez has to give McCutchen and Neil Walker some help offensively. He has barely played a full season of games (169), and there is still time for him to meet the expectations that come as a No. 2 overall pick. Hey, Alex Gordon finally did. -- Paul Sporer, Pitt Plank

St. Louis Cardinals: Adam Wainwright

Despite losing everyone's perennial favorite player to watch to free agency, the defending champs have several captivating players in 2012. Partly because fans haven't seen him in a year and partly because he throws one of the most entertaining curveballs in the game, Wainwright will be a sight for sore eyes as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. But the player with whom Wainwright will forever be linked in fans' memories, Carlos Beltran, also figures to be a pivotal and exciting addition to the post-Pujols roster. -- Matt Philip, Fungoes

San Diego Padres: Carlos Quentin

The acquisition of Quentin brings energy, excitement and more total bases (210 in 2011 with the White Sox) and home runs (24) than any Padres player had last year. The Padres now employ two hitting coaches -- a model just a few MLB teams use -- as Phil Plantier and Alonzo Powell help with the workload hitting instruction requires. Quentin plays hard and he will help change the dynamics in the clubhouse. With the Padres' deep farm system and strong pitching, Quentin just might be the player to add the much needed spark of power in the middle of the order. -- Anna McDonald

San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey

I think I can speak for Giants fans everywhere when I say the player that I'm most excited to see play this season is Posey, and it's not even close. His injury in 2011 was a black mark on a year that we'd all like to forget. Beyond the numbers, Posey has quickly become the face of the Giants. He's young, energetic, talented and -- for us fans -- we hope healthy. Regardless of what happens, I'll be happy to see him back on the field in 2012. -- Chris Quick, Bay City Ball

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg

How could it be anyone but Strasburg? When healthy, the most hyped pitching prospect in over a decade has delivered some fabulous pitching performances, and yet it feels like he is just scratching the surface of what he can do. He's as equally likely to blow guys away for a double-digit K performance as he is to shut a team down and let just two guys reach first over eight innings. He looked so good at the end of last year that the feeling is the only thing that can stop him in 2012 are the limits imposed by his own team to protect his recovering arm. -- Harper Gordek, Nationals Baseball

Should we assume Adam Wainwright will be as good as he was in 2009 and 2010? How good is Jason Kipnis? Should the Reds trade Joey Votto before he becomes a free agent? Plus: Some suggested challenge trades, the future of the Astros and Orioles, Matt Harrison and more! Click here for the chat wrap.

ST. LOUIS -- St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Allen Craig had a pretty good idea the final out of the World Series might be coming toward the left side of the diamond. He remembers the buzz in the stadium as David Murphy was up to bat. As the ball came his way, he was thinking, this could be it, the final out, World Series champions.

As grandfathers and grandmothers tell their story each will have their own memories, but when the man who caught the final out tells how it happened he will not have the ball to show for it.

After the game Craig heard that Tony La Russa was interested in the ball. Once the celebration on the field was over, La Russa pulled the team into the weight room and told them he was retiring.

During that meeting, Craig said he was thinking, "I'm not going to be the guy who keeps the ball. That’s just not going to happen."

That night he handed it to La Russa. For Craig, the thrill and memory of catching the final out of the World Series was enough. "That’s all I need," he said.

Great baseball stories usually come from the unexpected. Craig’s act of giving the ball to La Russa sums up the offseason for the Cardinals: The thrills and championship of 2011, first baseman Albert Pujols, La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan are now just a memory.

* * * *

How do the Cardinals move forward? Some teams have to fill holes; without Pujols, the Cardinals have to fill a crater.

"He’s a great player, he’s a good friend," Matt Holliday said of losing Pujols. "I’m disappointed he’s not going to be here, but I think as players we understand that it was a possibility."

Lance Berkman said he was surprised Pujols ended up signing with the Angels. "Certainly if you asked me at this time last year I would have said, 'Hey, there’s absolutely no way he’s going to go anywhere but be here his entire career.' It’s hard to imagine Albert playing for anyone else."

Berkman knows it's just part of the business of baseball. "I thought I was always going to be in Houston and here I am a happy member of the St. Louis Cardinals," he said. "So, you can’t ever tell in this day and age."

Players move on, managers and coaches move on, the front office changes. Still, for any team in baseball there’s a need for a "face of the franchise."

Adam Wainwright appreciates his name being mentioned in that picture and joked, "You’d think they’d pick a prettier face."

For Wainwright, if he’s going to be the leader of the Cardinals he wants it to happen naturally and if it doesn’t, "so be it."

Holliday’s career .315/.388/.541 line is impressive and he now has the longest and highest-value contract on the team. Maybe he is the new face of the franchise.

"I’m willing to do whatever, whatever it takes," Holliday said. "I’ve played on teams that didn’t have Albert before. I’ve batted third before. I’ve played in a World Series before. I’m available for whatever is asked of me."

Berkman joked about Holliday or himself being the face of the franchise, "We were both wondering if it would be too early to ask for No. 5."

With Berkman moving to first base, Carlos Beltran was signed to help replace Pujols' production at the plate.

"I know Pujols is a hole maybe no one can fill," Beltran said. "But with myself, with Berkman, with Holliday, I think there are three guys there that can put juice in the middle of the order."

Staff leader Chris Carpenter is mostly worried about what he does best: Focusing on Yadier Molina's glove. "My roles never change even with him (Pujols) here," Carpenter said. "We work together trying to control the things we need to control."

* * * *

Maybe the role of a leader is overrated. After all, if a team is winning, does it matter if there’s a strong presence in the clubhouse?

"It’s definitely important to have strong leadership on a team," Craig said. "Starting with the manager. Obviously Tony is gone but the main reason why they hired Mike Matheny is that he is just a natural leader being a catcher. All you hear about is how he is a respected guy, he knows the game, and he’s a great leader."

Carpenter, who pitched to Matheny while he was still catching, told a story about his new manager.

"I’ll never forget there was a game, I was going out and I wasn’t throwing the ball real well, my stuff wasn’t real good," Carpenter recalled. "I was giving up some hits, some runs and he came out and was like, 'Listen, I know you don’t have your best stuff.' Just follow me, let’s concentrate on getting the ball down and just throw what I put down there."

The next thing Carpenter knew it was seven innings later. "I gave up a couple of runs but I got through it and gave my team a chance to win."

Carpenter thinks Molina will step up off the field. "Yadier is going to have a huge presence in that clubhouse this year with taking over a role that he might not have been 100 percent used to," Carpenter said. "But I think he’s going to evolve into that leader that we need."

Relief pitcher Mitchell Boggs says Molina gives "every single guy that comes out of the bullpen or starts a lot of confidence." Kyle Lohse echoed those thoughts, saying, "There are so many different things he does. Whether it’s the studying of the hitters to being able to stay a step ahead of them, he does all that so well. He’s very smart back there."

* * * *

On the last day of the Cardinals Winter Warm-Up, the annual event to benefit the Cardinals Care charity, there was a noticeable influx of kids in the crowd, a buzz of excitement.

Peggy Phillips, who has volunteered for the Winter Warm-Up for 16 years, explained why: "It’s David Freese’s day," Phillips said. "It was always crowded on Albert Pujols’ day."

Freese knows there’s more pressure on him now with all the attention he is receiving, but his role as hometown hero hasn’t changed what’s most important to him and what he hopes to bring to the Cardinals organization.

"I think the kids are the best part about this," Freese said of his busy offseason. "As hectic as it is, as crazy as everything gets, every time you see the excitement of a kid, it makes you realize it’s all worth it."

It seems everyone on the team is ready and willing to step up and be a leader. It’s fitting, isn’t it? Call it Cardinal luck. Or maybe it's just having the right guys in place at the right time. But whatever it's called, one thing is certain: The only way to survive the loss of a player like Pujols and a manager like La Russa is to fill the void with an entire team.

"We’ve got lots of really good older players that are good at leading people," Holliday said. "I think our clubhouse will be fine."

We're about 25 percent of the way through the season. After writing about my 25 percent AL and NL MVPs earlier, here are 10 important things we've learned so far.

1. Offense is down and not going up.

OK, it's not quite 1968, but entering Tuesday the major league batting average was .251, lowest since 1972, and the slugging percentage was .389, lowest since 1992. What this means is we have to mentally adjust our calculations of player performance from what we've been used to the past 15 years.

For example, Cliff Lee has a 3.84 ERA. Pretty good, right? Well, the NL overall ERA is 3.82, so before making park adjustments and so forth, Lee has been about average. He's 33rd among 61 NL starters in ERA. He's allowed a .262 batting average, which also placed him 33rd. Jimmy Rollins isn't having a great year with a .276/.355/.374 line? Actually, that makes about a league average hitter, and very good for a shortstop.

2. Parity rules the day.

Only three teams are at least seven games out of first place -- the White Sox, Twins and Astros.

I checked a similar point in the schedule for each of the past 10 seasons, seeing how many teams were at least seven games out at the quarter point:

2010: 9
2009: 10
2008: 4
2007: 14
2006: 7
2005: 10
2004: 5
2003: 12
2002: 12
2001: 11

Obviously, those totals can be affected by a supremely hot start by a team in your division (such as Seattle starting 31-9 in 2001). The Indians and Phillies are the only teams playing .600 ball so far, but we also have fewer bottom feeders than usual. Every injury, every blown save, every late-inning comeback or costly error will be even more important this season.

3. Never overreact to the first two weeks.

We do it every year. We'll do it again next year. It's a rite of baseball, alongside hot dogs, the seventh-inning stretch and four-hour Red Sox-Yankees games. Tampa Bay started 1-8. Boston started 2-10. A month later, the Rays are in first place and the Red Sox are over .500.

4. Thus, while the Yankees have issues, there is no need to panic yet.

The Yankees are kind of doing what everyone has expected, aren't they? Their offense is second in the AL in runs, the starting rotation has the 10th-best ERA and their bullpen has the fifth-best ERA. But a 6-10 record so far in May has New York in a bad state of mind. But history shows us the Yankees often have a bad month on the way to a winning season. Here is their worst month each of the past 10 seasons:

2010: 12-15 in September (95 wins)
2009: 12-10 in April (103 wins)
2008: 13-15 in August (89 wins)
2007: 9-14 in April; 13-15 in May (94 wins)
2006: 14-12 in June (97 wins)
2005: 10-14 in April; 12-14 in June (95 wins)
2004: 12-11 in April (101 wins)
2003: 11-17 in May (101 wins)
2002: 14-12 in June (103 wins)
2001: 15-14 in August (95 wins)

So that's only six losing months in 10 years, but it's evidence (for me) that an under-.500 May doesn't mean the Yankees have to push the panic button. (Although it's fun to watch the fans and media overreact.)

5. The Cardinals can win without Adam Wainwright.

Few teams could survive the loss of a Cy Young contenders, but so far St. Louis has withstood the loss of their ace. Led by the fearsome foursome of Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and Colby Rasmus, St. Louis has the best offense in the NL, leading the league in runs, batting average and on-base percentage entering Tuesday. It's been their pitching that has been a pleasant surprise. They have 25 quality starts, tied for fourth in the league, and they're doing it despite slow starts from Chris Carpenter (1-3 4.95 ERA through nine starts) and Jake Westbrook (3-3, 6.07 ERA). But Jaime Garcia pitched another gem Tuesday night and he's looking like one of the best starters in the NL. Kyle Lohse has been excellent and Kyle McClellan a nice bonus moving over from the bullpen. The bullpen is getting straightened out ... and Pujols hasn't even heated up yet.

6. Jose Bautista is for real.

But are the Blue Jays? Toronto is 21-20, right in the thick of the AL East race. The Blue Jays are hanging in there despite some dreadful starts by some of their regulars: Edwin Encarnacion and Aaron Hill haven't homered yet, Travis Snider is hitting .184 and Juan Rivera is hitting .203. If those guys start hitting, the Jays could turn the East into a four-team race.

7. Speed is more important than it has been in years.

With scoring down, teams are placing more of an emphasis on stealing bases, manufacturing runs and gaining that extra base. Stolen bases are averaging .68 per team per game, the highest since the same total in 1999. From Baseball Prospectus, the top five baserunning teams (incorporating steals and advancement on base hits, etc.).

1. Nationals, +9.5 runs
2. Mets, +7.7 runs
3. Dodgers, +5.7 runs
4. Blue Jays, +5.5 runs
5. Giants, +5.4 runs

The bottom five:

30. Braves, -9.5 runs
29. Cardinals, -6.7 runs
28. Marlins, -5.0 runs
27. White Sox, -4.7 runs
26. Rockies, -4.1 runs

With more close games, every little edge counts. Pay attention to how your team runs the bases.

8. More young stars on the way.

After 2010's terrific crop of rookies -- Buster Posey, Jason Heyward, Mike Stanton, Starlin Castro, Jaime Garcia, Ike Davis, Neftali Feliz, Brian Matusz, among others -- we're seeing another good-looking group. Not surprisingly, it's led by pitchers: AL starters Michael Pineda (Seattle), Jeremy Hellickson (Tampa Bay) and Zach Britton (Baltimore), plus closers Craig Kimbrel (Atlanta) and Jordan Walden (Angels).

For hitters, Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer is the first of a wave of talented prospects about to arrive in Kansas City, with pitcher Danny Duffy debuting Wednesday. A pair of catchers -- J.P. Arencibia in Toronto and Hank Conger with the Angels -- look like future middle-of-the-order hitters. Down in the minors, Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper and Angels outfielder Mike Trout are living up to their billing as two of the best hitting prospects we've seen in years.

9. The defending champs will have to fix, repair and adjust on the fly like last season.

Shortstop Miguel Tejada is on his final leg. Aubrey Huff, last year's cleanup hitter, is hitting .229. The outfield has been a revolving door of slumping hitters, hot streaks and injuries. Will top prospect Brandon Belt return anytime soon, and where will he play? Does Nate Schierholtz have enough bat to remain in the lineup? The starting pitching remains solid and the bullpen looks excellent, but can Bruce Bochy arrange his chess board with the same magical results as 2010?

10. The Indians aren't going anywhere.

They easily have the majors' largest run differential (+63). They actually haven't taken advantage of a soft schedule, as their strength of schedule has been top 10 in the majors so far. The lineup leads the AL in runs scored and that's without their Nos. 3 and 4 hitters (Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana) meeting projected numbers.

If the Indians remain baseball's Cinderella story ... well, let's just say no city deserves it more.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Follow David on Twitter: @dschoenfield.

In 2010, the NL Central finished the season with only six of the top 40 starting pitchers based on ERA. Three of those pitchers belonged to one team, the St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia.) The other three were Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez (Houston Astros) and Johnny Cueto (Reds). This means the Cubs, Pirates and Brewers were without a starter in the top 40 ERA’s in the league by the end of 2010. The potential was there, but it was never realized. Fast forward to 2011 …

The Brewers made the first move this offseason when they picked up Zack Greinke in a trade with the Royals. They gave up little for what will be their staff ace. FanGraphs projects Greinke’s 2011 stats to be about 14-15 wins and an ERA in the mid 3.00’s. The Brew Crew did not stop there, acquiring Shawn Marcum, who cobbled together a nice 2010 for Toronto in the tough AL East after missing all of 2009. These two additions, along with future Cy Young candidate Yovani Gallardo make the Brewers a contender for the NL Central crown in 2011.

The Cubs’ offseason answer to their pitching staff questions came in a trade with Tampa Bay. Matt Garza was acquired in exchange for a slew of prospects. While the big question is how Garza will fair in Wrigley, it goes without saying he is an upgrade, and makes a fine middle-of-the-rotation addition. FanGraphs projects something like 11 wins and a high 3.00 to low 4.00 ERA. He gives the Cubs a very solid top three along with Ryan Dempster and a “newly cured” Carlos Zambrano. What if Randy Wells can get his 2009 form back? Any Cubs fan can tell you that 2010’s failure came from a lack of offense. If this staff gets even a hint of support, the NL Central is well within reach.

We can’t discuss the Cubs without touching on the Cardinals. Year in and year out the Cardinals seem to have pitching, or at least starting pitching. Yes, Wainwright is gone for the 2011 season, and while this is a big blow, I don’t see it being the end of their 2011 season. Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan are unbelievable at squeezing water from a stone. Duncan got production from Todd Wellemeyer for crying out loud. Every year the duo of La Russa and Duncan seems to pull a starting pitcher out of a hat. I am sure somebody will fall in place to pick up at least some of the wreckage left behind by Wainwright’s injury. They still have Carpenter and Garcia to lean on. Let’s also not forget the sinkerball pitcher, Jake Westbrook, who I am sure Duncan will turn into a Cy Young candidate before long. Oh yes, the Cardinals are still in the hunt … even when they lose their best pitcher.

The sneakiest staff might be Houston's. Rodriguez and Myers will once again anchor this staff. Don’t count out J.A. Happ, as he fit in nicely coming over from the Phillies in a trade last season. While I don’t see the Astros contending this year, mostly because of their offensive woes and bullpen, these three guys make for a nice base to a starting staff. Rodriguez and Myers were both in the top 40 ERA’s for starting pitchers last year, and Happ has the stuff to be included in that conversation someday, too.

Alongside these teams sit the Cincinnati Reds. Youth would be the operative word here. The potential in this starting rotation is enormous for 2011 and beyond. Yes, Bronson Arroyo is 33, but after that you have Edison Volquez (28), Cueto (25) , Homer Bailey (25) and a fifth starter in Travis Wood (24) or Mike Leake (23). There is also the tease that Cuban fireballer Aroldis Chapman (22) might one day become a starter. With the exception of Chapman and possibly Wood, all of these pitchers have seen significant success at the major league level in a starting role. The only thing keeping the Reds from a return to the playoffs is the fact that every team in the division upgraded with exception to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The NL Central has always had a few good pitchers sprinkled about its rosters. What’s new to the past decade is the depth of each team’s starting staff, not to mention the potential for more in the future. While the Astros, and more so the Pirates, have some ground to make up in this category, the remaining four teams are finding strength and depth from their starters.

Chet West writes for The View From the Bleachers blog, which is part of the SweetSpot network.

John Mozeliak must be wishing that Punxsutawney Phil had predicted a few more weeks of winter, because the Cardinals GM hasn't exactly made a lot of positive progress so far this winter: He sent defensive whiz Brendan Ryan to Seattle, wasn't able to get a deal done with free-agent-to-be Albert Pujols and went out and signed Nick Punto (kidding). And now comes this news:

Adam Wainwright, a 20-game winner for the Cardinals a year ago and the runner-up for the Cy Young Award, was being sent back to St. Louis Wednesday for tests on his injured right elbow amid concern that he could be lost for the season.

[+] Enlarge
Steve Mitchell/US PresswireThe Cardinals may lose ace Adam Wainwright for the season.

General manager John Mozeliak said "things do not look encouraging" for the right-hander, who injured his elbow during Monday's bullpen session.

Mozeliak stopped short of saying Wainwright would need Tommy John surgery.

"I don't want to speculate, but obviously ligament damage, that's usually what it results in," he said.

This is easily the worst news of all for the Cardinals. They were going to be able to compensate for Ryan's loss, they still have Pujols at least for this season and Nick Punto, well, he's one year younger than Aaron Miles. But how many teams could lose their staff ace and still make the playoffs?

One of the reasons that the Cardinals couldn't repeat as NL Central division champions last year was an inability to deal with injuries. Once Brad Penny went down, the rotation struggled until Mozeliak acquired Jake Westbrook. But Westbrook came at the expense of giving up right fielder Ryan Ludwick. And when up-and-coming third baseman David Freese had his breakout season ended by injury, Mozeliak unwisely replaced him with Pedro Feliz, whose .216 wOBA was an albatross for the Cardinal offense.

The Cardinals weren't the only team victimized by injuries last year, nor will they be this year. But in 2010, the Braves, Phillies and Twins (among others) all overcame their afflictions by rearming from within and without -- and contended. As difficult as Wainwright would be to replace -- if they indeed need to -- Mozeliak can't let injuries have the last word with the Cardinals again this year. Losing your best pitcher stinks, but the bright side is that the Cardinals have plenty of time to conquer the problem. Even if spring is right around the corner.

Matt Philip writes Fungoes, a blog about the St. Louis Cardinals.

Fact: Nobody won 20 games in 2009.

Fact: Two pitchers have already won 20 games in 2010, and at least two more (Ubaldo Jimenez and Adam Wainwright) are likely to.

Question: Has the slide in 20-game winners been not only arrested, but reversed?

Answer: Why are you so obsessed with 20 wins?

That answer is a fair question. Qualitatively, there's almost no difference between winning 19 games and winning 20 games. Since 2006, no pitcher has won more than 22 games in a season. So let's break the winners into groups of three wins: 17-19 and 20-22. For each of the last five years, the number of pitchers who finished in those groups:

2006: 7/0
2007: 11/1
2008: 10/4
2009: 8/0
2010: 9/2

The 2010 numbers will probably wind up looking something like 9/4 (give or take). Which wouldn't be appreciably different from 2007 or (especially) 2008. Maybe 2006 and 2009 were flukes ... but I say one's a fluke and two's the hint of a trend.

I suspect that we can partly explain this season's numbers by excellent pitchers working for teams that score a lot of runs. It's helped Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia, anyway. It's hard to win without run support. Consistently, anyway.

The other key to winning 20 games is pitching a lot of innings. And that's not trending positively. Halladay and Sabathia and Felix Hernandez are beasts, but otherwise there aren't workhorses likely to pitch so many innings that you'd notice. There does seem to be some thought that great pitchers like these shouldn't throw fewer innings ... but they're not likely to throw more, either. And the non-aces -- the guys who might occasionally luck into an 18-win season -- aren't going to throw more innings, either. Not with the proliferation of seven- (and eight!-)man pitching staffs.

As we've seen this season, 20-game winners are far from extinct. I'm not even sure they're endangered. But they're not coming back like grizzly bears in Montana, either.

Why will the Brewers contend in 2011?

1. The Brewers have already patched up their bullpen.
On opening day, the Brewers' bullpen contained (among others) Trevor Hoffman and Claudio Vargas. After two awful starts, Jeff Suppan joined this awful duo. Those three all had ERAs above 6.90 in April and May, and they combined for a stunning minus-2.96 WPA – mostly via Hoffman and his five blown saves, but also from the general incompetence of the trio. That means that this group was three wins worse than merely average relievers.

Since then, Hoffman has been replaced as closer by John Axford, Suppan has been replaced in the rotation by Chris Narveson and in the bullpen by Kameron Loe. Zach Braddock has taken the role of top lefty from Mitch Stetter (a middling-at-best LOOGY who was utterly incompetent against RHB). Vargas’s low-leverage innings have been split between players like Chris Capuano, who is an interesting project if nothing else, and David Riske, who is merely biding the time until his contract expires.

Axford, Braddock, and Loe have been fantastic since joining the Brewers, combining for plus-2.22 WPA in their time on the team, largely coming after Jeff Suppan’s June 7 release. All three will be under team control next year, making them near locks to be important bullpen pieces next season, added to relievers Carlos Villanueva and Todd Coffey.

2. The Brewers have a favorable payroll situation.
With the toxic contracts of Jeff Suppan, Bill Hall, and others coming off the books, the Brewers will shed roughly $45 million in contracts after this season. After arbitration raises, I estimate that the Brewers will be about $25 million below the 2010 opening day payroll, even if Prince Fielder remains a Brewer. That means they'll have some money to play with.

The Brewers aren't losing much, either. The only important player from 2010 who's on his way out is Jim Edmonds, but he can be replaced in-house by either Carlos Gomez or Lorenzo Cain. At every other position, the Brewers are solid. CHONE's August update projects the Brewers with one above-average player (+2.0 WAR per 150 games) at each position.

That means the Brewers can spend most, if not all, of that "extra" $25 million on their weakness: starting pitching. The market this winter isn't great, but Javier Vazquez, Brandon Webb, Ted Lilly, Jon Garland (likely to decline his mutual option), Jake Westbrook, and Kevin Millwood, among others, are all interesting options. Perhaps a better move would be to use some of that cash to deal with a team like the Marlins, who might attempt to move Ricky Nolasco's high arbitration award in the offseason. They could also trade Prince Fielder for pitching, as Mat Gamel could step in and likely be an average first baseman. For the right pitcher, trading Fielder could actually make the Brewers better in 2011.

The roster certainly isn't perfect, but much of it is returning and there's money to fix the holes.

3. The NL Central is weak.
St. Louis has a good team this year, certainly, but it's not without its holes. Perennial All-Stars Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Matt Holliday form an excellent core, but there are question marks after those four players. The back of the rotation has struggled mightily, as the Cardinals have attempted patches with Blake Hawksworth and Jeff Suppan, eventually trading Ryan Ludwick away for Jake Westbrook. Losing Ludwick, one of the better right fielders in the NL, will hurt next year, and Westbrook will be a free agent. They also lose Brad Penny, who has been injured much of the year, and Felipe Lopez, who was an absolute steal in last year's free-agent market. The Cardinals have played like an 89-win team this season according to Beyond the Box Score's power rankings (looking at cW%). They have a modest amount of money to spend this year, but they are losing enough to the point where I wouldn't feel comfortable projecting any sort of major increase, especially given that St. Louis's top financial priority will be locking up Albert Pujols past 2011, the last year of his current contract.

The Cincinnati Reds have played about as well as the Cardinals so far this year, but there's really only one word to describe why I'm not super high on this team heading into next year: regression. Will Scott Rolen continue to be a power threat in his mid 30s? Is Mike Leake a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher despite skipping the minor leagues? Is Arthur Rhodes really one of the best left-handed relief pitchers in baseball? I'm inclined to say "no" to all of these questions. There's enough young talent on this Reds team to still be solid next season, and they might add Aroldis Chapman to the mix as well, and they won't have Edinson Volquez recovering from Tommy John surgery for half a season. That said, there's no reason to believe that the Reds are anything more than an 89-win team themselves, and simple regression says that we should expect something closer to 86 or 87.

4. "Contending" doesn't mean favorites.
The favorites to win the division next year will be, barring the unforeseen, Cincinnati and St. Louis, in some order and for good reason. However, they're not elite teams, and given the crazy things that can happen during the course of the season, they could each just as easily end up as .500 squads as 95-win teams. The Brewers look like a true talent 81-win team right now. They've played .519 baseball since releasing Suppan, and that's just above what the Beyond the Boxscore rankings expect (a .505 cW percent). I would feel pretty confident calling the roster on hand an 81-win team for next season.

The Brewers had a similar projection opening the season last year, and were given playoff odds of about 17 percent by Baseball Prospectus prior to the season. With the money available to plug holes in the rotation, the Brewers can definitely make themselves a preseason contender (say, 30-40 percent playoff odds) prior to the season, even if they're not favorites.

Jack Moore writes about the Brewers at Disciples of Uecker, a member of ESPN.com's SweetSpot Network.