SweetSpot: Alcides Escobar

  • One of the big stories of spring training -- or perhaps most overblown -- has been the velocity of Michael Pineda's fastball. Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com has the report on Pineda's Thursday start, in which his fastball clocked 90-92 mph but his changeup looked impressive.
  • The Phillies released Dontrelle Willis, who struggled in three spring appearances (five runs allowed in 2 2/3 innings with four walks and no strikeouts). I'm a little surprised the Phillies pulled the plugged so early, as Willis seemed liked a good gamble to fill the LOOGY role out of the bullpen after holding lefties to a .127 average last season with the Reds. Willis had a sore arm and certainly didn't pitch well but he's still only 30 years old. He'll surface somewhere.
  • Our own Christina Kahrl has an excerpt from the new Baseball Prospectus book "Extra Innings" up at the BP site. Christina looks at the effects of the increase in strikeouts. The book is due out in early April and you can pre-order it from Amazon.
  • The Royals signed defensive whiz Alcides Escobar to a long-term extension. Craig Brown of Royals Authority weighs in. Even if Escobar doesn't improve with that bat, his value in the field should turn this into a good contract for the Royals.
  • Logan Morrison had his knee scoped in December and it's still giving him trouble. He's made one spring training appearance but is now back on the bench. The Marlins need a big year from Morrison so this could be the little spring training injury story that actually means something if the knee doesn't improve. It doesn't help that Giancarlo Stanton may be out another week with his own knee inflammation.
  • Speaking of injuries, Chien-Ming Wang tweaked a hamstring and may be out a couple weeks. This is why you don't trade John Lannan. Every team needs six or seven starters. Speaking of which, ESPN Insider Eno Sarris has a piece on which contenders have the most and least starting pitching depth.
  • Who should start at shortstop for the Red Sox? Chip Buck examines the issue. Is there a right answer? (I'm with Chip: I think you go with Mike Aviles, even if Nick Punto and especially Jose Iglesias are the superior glove men.)
  • Jon Shepherd is running a series of posts at Camden Depot examining the value of each "slot" in starting rotations, division by division. In other words, what is the caliber of a No. 3 starter or No. 4 starter and so on. Here he examines the NL East.
  • This is from the other day, but Joey Matschulat of Baseball Time in Arlington wrote of the Yu Darvish debacle in his second spring training start.
  • Speaking of the Rangers, ESPNDallas.com's Jean-Jacques Taylor profiles Ian Kinsler -- the man who ignites the Texas offense.


Alex Avila, Carlos Santana & Joe MauerUS PresswireWith Alex Avila, Carlos Santana and Joe Mauer, the AL Central is loaded at catcher.


We're back with more divisional position rankings for 2012. You can scream, you can holler, you can protest and call me names. But just because I rated your player lower than you think he deserves doesn't mean I hate your team.

(Here are the NL East and NL West rankings.)

Catcher
1. Alex Avila, Tigers
2. Joe Mauer, Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Indians
4. Salvador Perez, Royals
5. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox

The AL Central might not be baseball's glamor division, but it may have three of the top five catchers in the game if Mauer bounces back from his injury-plagued campaign. Since we're not certain of his health, I'm going to give top billing to Avila, who had the best hitting numbers of any catcher outside of Mike Napoli and plays solid defense. I wouldn't be surprised if Santana explodes; with his power-and-walks combo, all he has to do is raise his average 30 points and he'll be one of the most valuable players in the game. Considering that his average on balls in play was .263, there is a good chance of that happening. Perez hit .331 in 39 games; OK, he won't do that again, but he doesn't turn 22 until May and puts the ball in play. There's no shame in being fifth in this group but that's where I have to place Pierzynski, who keeps rolling along and is now 36th on the all-time list for games caught.

First base
1. Prince Fielder, Tigers
2. Paul Konerko, White Sox
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals
4. Justin Morneau, Twins
5. Matt LaPorta, Indians

In 2009, when Morneau played 135 games, he hit .274 AVG/.363 OBP/.516 SLG. Even if he replicates that line, he may rank only fourth. Konerko has hit a combined .306 with 70 home runs the past two seasons. He's 104 home runs from 500 but turns 36 in March, so he's probably four seasons away; not sure he'll hang on that long, but who knew he'd be this good at this age. If Hosmer improves his walk rate and defense and Konerko declines, Hosmer could climb past him. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next. The most similar batter to him at age 21: Eddie Murray.

Second base
1. Jason Kipnis, Indians
2. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
3. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
4. Alexi Casilla, Twins
5. Ramon Santiago, Tigers

Well, this isn't exactly a Robinson Cano/Dustin Pedroia/Ben Zobrist debate, is it? Kipnis' bat is a sure thing, as evidenced by his excellent play after his call-up (.272 average and .507 slugging in 36 games). His glove was once a question mark but now appears solid enough that he looks like a future All-Star to me. Can anybody explain what has happened to Beckham? He's second mostly by default; he's gone downhill since his superb rookie season in 2009 but is only 25, so there's hope that he'll find those skills again. Giavotella has some potential with the bat (.338/.390/.481 at Triple-A), which is more than you can say for Casilla and Santiago.

Third base
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Mike Moustakas, Royals
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
4. Danny Valencia, Twins
5. Brent Morel, White Sox

We'll go with the idea that Cabrera is Detroit's starting third baseman, although I predict he'll end up starting more games at designated hitter. Manager Jim Leyland will end up doing a lot of mixing of his lineups, but for this little exercise we have to choose a starter. Moustakas didn't tear up the league as a rookie and I worry about his ability to hit lefties (.191, homerless in 89 at-bats), but he showed more than fellow rookies Chisenhall and Morel. Valencia doesn't get on base enough and he rated poorly on defense in 2011. I hope he's at least good in the clubhouse. Morel was terrible all season and then exploded for eight of his 10 home runs in September and drew 15 walks after drawing just seven the previous five months. Maybe something clicked.

Shortstop
1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
2. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
4. Alcides Escobar, Royals
5. Jamey Carroll, Twins

Peralta had the best 2011 season, but he's a difficult guy to project. He had an .804 OPS in 2008 but dropped to .691 in 2009. He had a .703 OPS in 2010 and then .823 in 2011. I just don't see a repeat season, at the plate or in the field. Cabrera didn't rate well on the defensive metrics, and after a strong start he wore down in the second half. Ramirez has turned into a nice player, with a good glove and some power, and he even draws a few walks now. Escobar is a true magician with the glove. Carroll is actually a useful player who gets on base (.356 career OBP), but he's pushed as an everyday shortstop and he'll be 38. He'll be issued the honorary Nick Punto locker in the Twins' clubhouse.

Left field
1. Alex Gordon, Royals
2. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
3. Ben Revere, Twins
4. Michael Brantley/Shelley Duncan, Indians
5. Ryan Raburn/Don Kelly, Tigers

I'm not sure what to do here. After Gordon, I just get a headache. We'll pretend to believe in De Aza after his impressive stint in the majors (171 plate appearances, .329/.400/.920). He's hit in Triple-A for three seasons now, and while he's not going to post a .400 OBP again, he should be adequate. Revere is one of the fastest players in the majors, but he's all speed and defense; he hopes to grow up to be Brett Gardner, which isn't a bad thing, but he'll have to learn to get on base at a better clip. Brantley doesn't have one outstanding skill so he'll have to hit better than .266 to be anything more than a fourth outfielder; Duncan provides some right-handed pop as a platoon guy. The Tigers have Delmon Young, but I'll slot him at DH. That leaves supposed lefty masher Raburn and utility man Kelly to soak up at-bats; both had an OBP below .300 in 2011, although Raburn has hit better in the past.

Center field
1. Austin Jackson, Tigers
2. Denard Span, Twins
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Lorenzo Cain, Royals
5. Alex Rios, White Sox

I can't rate Sizemore any higher since he's played just 104 games over the past two seasons, and he hasn't had a big year since 2008. Rios was terrible in '09, OK in '10 and worse than terrible in '11. I'm not betting on him.

Right field
1. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
2. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
3. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
4. Josh Willingham, Twins
5. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox

Choo would like to forget 2011, but there's no reason he shouldn't bounce back and play like he did in 2009 and 2010, when he was one of the 10 best position players in the AL. I don't expect Francoeur to deliver 71 extra-base hits again, but maybe he'll surprise us. Viciedo is apparently nicknamed "The Tank," which makes me wonder how much ground he can cover. He did improve his walk rate last season in the minors and turns 23 in March, so there's still room for more growth.

Designated hitter
1. Billy Butler, Royals
2. Travis Hafner, Indians
3. Ryan Doumit, Twins
4. Delmon Young, Tigers
5. Adam Dunn, White Sox

Has there been a bigger prospect disappointment than Young in the past decade? I mean, yes, there were complete busts like Brandon Wood and Andy Marte, but those guys had obvious holes in their games, while Young was viewed as a sure thing, a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. But his bat has never lived up to its billing. Other than one decent year in Minnesota, he has low OBPs and he clearly lacked range in the outfield. His career WAR on Baseball-Reference is minus-0.2 (1.6 on FanGraphs), meaning he's been worse than replacement level. He's just not that good, Tigers fans.

No. 1 starter
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. John Danks, White Sox
3. Justin Masterson, Indians
4. Luke Hochevar, Royals
5. Carl Pavano, Twins

Masterson was better than Danks in 2011, and I do believe his improvement was real. He absolutely crushes right-handers -- they slugged an anemic .259 off him. Danks had two bad months but has the longer track record of success. Even in his "off year" he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Masterson. If you want to argue about Hochevar versus Pavano, be my guest.

No. 2 starter
1. Doug Fister, Tigers
2. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
3. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
4. Francisco Liriano, Twins
5. Jonathan Sanchez, Royals

Yes, sign me up for the Doug Fister bandwagon club. Jimenez's fastball velocity was down a couple miles per hour last season but the positives are that his strikeout and walk rates were identical to 2010; he'll be better. Floyd isn't flashy but he's now made 30-plus starts four years in a row, and he'll become a very rich man when he becomes a free agent after this season. Sanchez won't have the luxury of pitching in San Francisco (and to eight-man NL lineups).

No. 3 starter
1. Max Scherzer, Tigers
2. Scott Baker, Twins
3. Philip Humber, White Sox
4. Bruce Chen, Royals
5. Josh Tomlin, Indians

I could be underrating Baker, who was excellent last season, but only once in his career has he made 30 starts in a season. Tomlin's fans will disagree with this ranking, but he's a finesse guy who relies on the best control in baseball (21 walks in 26 starts). He's the kind of guy you root for, but the league seemed to figure him out as the season progressed.

No. 4 starter
1. Felipe Paulino, Royals
2. Rick Porcello, Tigers
3. Jake Peavy, White Sox
4. Derek Lowe, Indians
5. Nick Blackburn, Twins

Scouts still love Porcello's arm and I know he's just 23, but he's made 89 big league starts and shown no signs of getting better. His WHIP has increased each season and his strikeout rate remains one of the lowest in baseball. Paulino has an electric arm -- he averaged 95 mph on his fastball -- and is getting better. How could the Rockies give up on him after just 14 innings? How could the Astros trade him for Clint Barmes? Anyway, kudos to the Royals for buying low on the guy who may turn into their best starter. Peavy can't stay healthy. Lowe has led his league in starts three out of the past four seasons, but I'm not sure that's a good thing anymore. Blackburn is a poor man's Lowe, and I don't mean that in a good way.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Sale, White Sox
2. Jacob Turner, Tigers
3. Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy, Royals
4. Fausto Carmona/David Huff/Jeanmar Gomez, Indians
5. Brian Duensing/Jason Marquis, Twins

Welcome to the AL Central crapshoot. Turner and Sale have the most upside, but one is a rookie and the other is converting from relief. Crow will also be given a shot at the rotation, but his difficulties against left-handed batters (.311 average allowed) don't bode well for that transition. Even if the artist formerly known as Carmona gets a visa, what do you have? A guy with a 5.01 ERA over the past four seasons. Duensing is another typical Twins pitcher, which means he at least throws strikes. His first full season in the rotation didn't go well, so of course the Twins brought in Marquis, yet another guy who doesn't strike anybody out.

Closer
1. Jose Valverde, Tigers
2. Joakim Soria, Royals
3. Matt Thornton, White Sox
4. Chris Perez, Indians
5. Matt Capps, Twins

Four good relievers plus Matt Capps. I do admit I'm a little perplexed by Perez, however. In 2009, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings. In 2010, that figure fell to 8.7 but he posted a pretty 1.71 ERA. In 2011, it was all the way down to 5.9, but without much improvement in his control. Perez blew only four saves but he did lose seven games. He survived thanks to a low .240 average on balls in play. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher but didn't serve up many home runs. Bottom line: I'd be nervous.

Bullpen
1. Indians -- Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone
2. Royals -- Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares
3. Tigers -- Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Al Alburquerque
4. White Sox -- Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod
5. Twins -- Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros

If you're starting to think I'm not high on the Twins for this season, you would be correct.

Intangibles
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Twins

I like the youthful exuberance of the Royals, plus the likelihood of improvement from the young players and the possibility of some midseason reinforcements from the minors. The depth of the bullpen will help bolster a shaky rotation, and this just feels like an organization that is finally starting to believe in itself. The Indians are riding last year's positive results and enter the season knowing they might get better production from Choo and Sizemore and full seasons from Kipnis and Chisenhall. I'm not knocking the Tigers here, but they do lack depth in the pitching staff and the pressure is on them.

The final tally
1. Tigers, 65 points
2. Royals, 55 points
3. Indians, 54 points
4. White Sox, 46 points
5. Twins, 35 points

No surprise here: The Tigers will be heavy favorites to win the division with a lineup that should score a ton of runs. I don't think it's a lock that they'll win -- Verlander, Avila, Peralta and Valverde will all be hard-pressed to repeat their 2011 campaigns, for example. But the Royals and Indians appear to have too many questions in the rotations, the White Sox have serious lineup issues, and the Twins have a beautiful ballpark to play their games in.
Tags:

Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Andy Marte, Joe Mauer, John Danks, Jonathan Broxton, Denard Span, Nick Punto, Alcides Escobar, Rafael Perez, Justin Morneau, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, Brandon Wood, Anthony Swarzak, Dustin Pedroia, Alex Rios, Tim Collins, Justin Verlander, Jonathan Sanchez, Alexei Ramirez, Ryan Doumit, Justin Masterson, Jason Frasor, Jason Marquis, Francisco Liriano, Matt Capps, Luke Hochevar, Alex Gordon, Matt LaPorta, Prince Fielder, Gordon Beckham, Alexi Casilla, Joakim Soria, Gavin Floyd, Delmon Young, Ramon Santiago, Carl Pavano, Mike Napoli, Ubaldo Jimenez, Grady Sizemore, Jeff Francoeur, Travis Hafner, Jose Valverde, Jake Peavy, Billy Butler, Adam Dunn, Derek Lowe, Miguel Cabrera, Brian Duensing, Ben Zobrist, Fausto Carmona, Jim Leyland, Shin-Soo Choo, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, Michael Brantley, Danny Valencia, Jose Mijares, Danny Duffy, Carlos Santana, A.J. Pierzynski, Austin Jackson, Robinson Cano, Chris Perez, Clint Barmes, Brett Gardner, Brennan Boesch, Nick Blackburn, Paul Konerko, Scott Baker, Chris Sale, Josh Willingham, Jhonny Peralta, Asdrubal Cabrera, Joe Smith, Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, Matt Thornton, Aaron Crow, Josh Tomlin, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, Jamey Carroll, Jesse Crain, Alex Avila, philip humber, Brent Morel, Joaquin Benoit, Ben Revere, Eric Hosmer, Al Alburquerque, Ryan Raburn, Mike Moustakas, Dayan Viciedo, Octavio Dotel, Jacob Turner, Don Kelly, Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, Lorenzo Cain, Jeanmar Gomez, Shelley Duncan, Alejandro De Aza, Bruce Chen, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Glen Perkins, Felipe Paulino, Nick Hagadone, Daniel Schlereth, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod, Alex Burnett, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros



Baseball's bunting fiends

September, 22, 2011
9/22/11
7:00
PM ET
While doing research for today’s piece on Ron Roenicke, a few fun items came my way that weren’t Brewers- or postseason-centric. Thanks to Doug Kern and the gang at Stats & Info, I was given a leaderboard for which position players have been bunting the most, how many of them have led to base hits, and even who has the most sac bunt RBIs this season.

Keep in mind, this is sorted by bunt attempts, not successful sac bunts, so the nine guys who have attempted to bunt the most often are not always the same guys who lead the league in successful sac hits.

The other thing to remember is that the tally of plate appearances where a hitter has laid one down include bunting for base hits and bunting to advance runners, so when you see that Juan Pierre’s 16-for-32, that means he has 16 bunt singles, but doesn’t necessarily mean he was trying to bunt for a hit 32 times. And because this was fairly quick and dirty, we didn’t tease out ROE results. However gritty the info, it’s interesting for the sense it gives us of which players are dropping one down most frequently, and what this also tells us about the managers they play for.

Looking at the top nine of baseball’s bunting fiends, we lead off with the White Sox’s Pierre, just like they do. Looking at these totals, he’s clearly the class of the little man’s game when it comes to placing pitches up the lines and around the mound. It has always been a centerpiece of his game, with the attending results in base hits, runs driven in and what some refer to as productive outs.

It’s worth noting that Pierre doesn’t just lead all position players in sac bunts, but all the pitchers as well. You can take that as a reminder of one of those pesky facts that NL-brand fans don’t often care to cite -- that you’ll usually find AL managers bunting more often with the people who can actually hit for a living, and not just with pitchers because what else can you do with them? This year’s team that has gotten the most sac bunts from its hitters? Ned Yost’s Royals squad. Between his fellow former Brewer Alcides Escobar (with a remarkable 17 sacrifices in 21 attempts) and Getz, it’s enough to make you wonder if Yost misses managing in Milwaukee.

Between Pierre and Getz you’ve got a group of guys who actively attempt to bunt for base hits: The Marlins’ Emilio Bonifacio and the Angels’ infield assault duo of Eric Aybar and Peter Bourjos. You can probably also put the token Twin on the list, Alexi Casilla, in this category as well. Ron Gardenhire might not have Nick Punto, and whatever value designated bench bunter Matt Tolbert has seems to have dried up after 2009, but Gardenhire's past fascination with the bunt still found an outlet with Casilla this season.

The pair of playoff-bound bunters should get some additional attention, despite the tactic’s associations with White Sox and Royals and Twins. The Yankees’ Gardner isn’t just an OBP hero and everybody’s favorite underrated Yankee (if that isn’t automatically oxymoronic), he’s also someone equally adept at pushing bunts for base hits or to move runners up. That’s something he has in common with Rangers speedster Elvis Andrus; if you remember the impact Andrus had within last year’s ALCS on both sides of the ball, this is just one piece of his value as far as being able to push sac bunts and base hits and exploit his speed to good effect.

For the curious, the best bunting pitchers in terms of raw numbers are the Phillies’ Roy Halladay and the Nats’ Livan Hernandez. Where Doc’s really only had two years to work on his craft, he’s already come fairly far as a pitcher capable of helping his own cause, ripping his first two career extra-base hits when he isn’t laying one down. Livan owns a career .528 OPS as a hitter (probably good enough to put him in the Twins’ infield), but bunting’s just another component in his batsmanship.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
I watch a lot of baseball games. Hey, it’s part of my job, so I’m not complaining. One thing I do is jot down notes on defensive players; while I believe in the value of the various defensive metrics, I also believe in observation. Plus, it’s important to note that all the great plays don’t necessarily show up as Web Gems on “Baseball Tonight.” Sometimes, a spectacular catch is made because a fielder made a bad jump on a ball. And, of course, the occasional slick play doesn’t mean a guy is consistent day after day.

So I thought it would be fun to look at the players I’ve most been impressed with on defense this season. This, of course, is influenced by the games I’ve seen. I know Gerardo Parra’s defensive numbers are terrific, but I won’t profess to having watched the Diamondbacks much. Anyway, the guy who jumps out at me most has been Angels center fielder Peter Bourjos. He is FAST, capital letters. He gets unbelievable reads and jumps on balls. To me, the true test of a center fielder (or any outfielder) is the low liner that you have to run in on, whether it’s right in front of you or off on an angle. It takes a great read off the bat, the right angle, and sometimes the courage to attempt a diving catch. In his prime, Andruw Jones made those plays look routine. The balls over the head usually make the highlight films, but a lot of mediocre fielders can look good ranging back on a long flies.

Bourjos makes all the plays. I was watching the other night in a game against Tampa Bay when somebody lined a ball into left-center. Bourjos raced after it and made a great diving catch. Watching it live, it didn’t necessarily look that amazing. But what made it more impressive was seeing the replay from the long-range overhead shot from the upper deck behind the plate: You could see how Bourjos was moving almost instantaneously with contact and how quickly he covered the 60 feet or whatever to make the play. He’s a great athlete, one of the fastest runners in the game, and the next in a line of great Angels center fielders: Gary Pettis, Devon White, Jim Edmonds, Darin Erstad, Torii Hunter and now Bourjos. I don’t know if any team has had a run of defensive players like that at one position. Bourjos will go down alongside them. He’s still developing as a hitter; right now, he chases too many pitches and strikeout too much, but he’s just 24. He’s going to be covering a lot of ground for a lot of years.

So here are my Gold Glovers so far, based on personal observation. I then looked up the consensus defensive leaders of three defensive metrics: UZR (found on FanGraphs), Total Zone Rating (from Baseball-Reference.com) and John Dewan’s +/- system (found on Bill James online).

First base: Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox

Metric consensus: 1. Gonzalez; 2. Todd Helton; 3. Adam LaRoche.
While Gonzalez’s hitting has been getting all the attention, the Red Sox knew they traded for an excellent two-way player. Gonzalez is slow on the bases, but he’s an underrated athlete who has the quick feet and soft hands required for a first baseman.

Overrated: Mark Teixeira. TV analysts tend to rave about his defense, but it seems more average than great these days, as he’s lost some of his range.

Second base: Brandon Phillips, Reds

Metric consensus: 1. Dustin Pedroia; 2. Ian Kinsler; 3. Mark Ellis.

Phillips undoubtedly leads in spectacular plays, and he and Paul Janish form a slick double-play duo. The metrics don’t agree on Phillips: UZR rates him fourth overall and has rated him as an excellent defender in the past; Baseball-Reference’s Total Zone rates Phillips below average for 2011 and throughout his career. I like what I see, but he could be a classic example of a guy who excels in Web Gems.

Overrated: Orlando Cabrera. Guess what? Most 36-year-olds have lost a step or two, and while the former shortstop got a lot praise early in the year, the metrics seem to agree that his range is lacking.

Third base: Adrian Beltre, Rangers

Metric consensus: 1. Evan Longoria; 2. Beltre; 3. Pablo Sandoval.

How has Beltre won only two Gold Gloves in his career? Longoria will probably win this and I can’t argue too much with that. Beltre hasn’t any quickness and can still make the long throw from the baseline. Yes, the metrics all love Kung Fu Panda’s range, believe it or not.
Overrated: David Wright. The metrics all agree that he’s not the fielder he once was -- and hasn’t been for several years.

Shortstop: Alcides Escobar, Royals

Metric consensus: 1. Troy Tulowitzki; 2. Alex Gonzalez; 3. Escobar.

Escobar has great range to his right, with an amazing cannon from deep in the hole. And he needs to be spectacular, because his hitting is bordering on unacceptable -- .227/.260/.270. OK, that is unacceptable. Tulo is like Cal Ripken: He might not look flashy and his powerful arm allows him to play a step or two deeper than other guys. The metrics back up his outstanding reputation. Elvis Andrus also ranks high, although his 13 errors indicate lapses in concentration.

Overrated: Asdrubal Cabrera. A consensus rating here: They all agree he has below-average range.

Left field: Brett Gardner, Yankees

Metric consensus: 1. Gerardo Parra; 2. Gardner; 3. Delmon Young.

It’s funny, I get a question every week in my chat asking if the Yankees should try to upgrade Gardner. Really, you don’t like a left fielder with the range of a center fielder, a guy puts up a good on-base percentage as well? Anyway, Gardner is terrific, great jumps and reads, and big a reason guys like Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon have put up surprising numbers. Parra’s numbers are off the charts, but everything I’ve read and heard indicate he’s been spectacular. Delmon Young? Hmm.

Overrated: Carlos Gonzalez. He won a Gold Glove last year, but none of the metrics rate him as a great defender.

Center field: Peter Bourjos, Angels

Metric consensus: 1. Denard Span; 2. Carlos Gomez; 3. Bourjos.

There are a lot of good center fielders out there right now, with Andrew McCutchen, Cameron Maybin and Drew Stubbs also rating well on all three defensive systems.

Overrated: Matt Kemp. A Gold Glover in 2009, but that seemed unwarranted at the time and definitely now. But his bat has made him an MVP candidate this year.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo

Metric consensus: 1. Torii Hunter; 2. Choo; 3. Carlos Beltran.
I had no idea where Choo would rate, since I mostly love his powerful throwing arm (he was a pitcher as an amateur). But he also has good range out there. The metrics don’t have a lot of consensus among right fielders. In fact, Kosuke Fukudome rates No. 1 on Baseball-Reference.com … and last in FanGraphs’ UZR.

Overrated: Ichiro Suzuki. All three metrics have Ichiro rated as below average this year. In fact, not just below average, but terrible. He doesn’t seem terrible to me, but it does appear that more balls are falling around him this year. I wonder if he’s sensed that he’s lost a step and is playing a little deeper this year. Still, it seems odd that he would lose his speed and range so suddenly; something to keep an eye on.

Catcher: Matt Wieters, Orioles.

Metric consensus: 1. Wieters; 2. Wilson Ramos; 3. Buster Posey.

OK, I cheated on this one. With the usually excellent Yadier Molina not having a great year throwing out runners, that honor goes to Matt Wieters, who has thrown out 17 of 39 attempted basestealers.

Overrated: Brian McCann. Hey, he’s not in there for his glove anyway.

SERIES OF THE WEEK

Cleveland at Detroit, Tuesday through Thursday

Tuesday: Justin Masterson (5-4, 3.17) vs. Justin Verlander (7-3, 2.89)
Wednesday: Fausto Carmona (3-8, 5.71) vs. Brad Penny (5-5, 4.69)
Thursday: Mitch Talbot(2-3, 4.01) vs. Max Scherzer (8-2, 4.39)

After beating Boston on May 23, the Indians were 30-15 and led the AL Central by seven games. Since then they’ve gone 4-15 and the Tigers have caught them, setting up this week’s big showdown. They’ve been shut out five times in those 19 games and scored one or two runs in seven games. The pitching and defense haven’t been much better. The Indians had a 3.38 ERA on May 23, but have a 5.90 ERA since, allowing 202 hits and 23 home runs in 157 innings. Carmona, in particular, has been terrible, allowing 31 runs in 27 innings over his past five starts.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Tuesday: Alexi Ogando (7-0, 2.10) vs. CC Sabathia (7-4, 3.15), Rangers at Yankees

With Bartolo Colon heading to the DL for at least a couple weeks after tweaking his hammy, Sabathia will face even more pressure to go deep into games to help preserve the Yankees' thin bullpen. Many keep waiting for Ogando to regress or show fatigue, but he keeps dominating and has held opponents to a .188 average. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) may be an unsustainable .210 -- since 2000, no pitcher with at least 100 innings has allowed a BABIP that low -- but he has one of the arms in the majors, throwing a hard, sinking fastball that has baffled hitters all season. He’s allowed more than two runs just twice in 12 starts, although one of those against the Yankees on April 17, also in Yankee Stadium, when he allowed five runs in 6 1/3 innings.

THREE STRIKES

1. The Brewers completed a big sweep of the Cardinals with a 4-3 win on Sunday, with Prince Fielder hitting a two-run homer in a four-run sixth as the Brewers rallied from a 3-0 deficit. Fielder has eight home runs and a .412 average in June and is suddenly looking like an MVP candidate with a season line of .305/.415/.627 with 19 home runs and 58 RBIs. Still think Pujols will get the bigger deal this offseason? And speaking of awards, Shaun Marcum will be a sleeper Cy Young contender as he’s now 7-2 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .208 average allowed and 83 strikeouts in 90.2 innings.

2. Kudos to Cleveland manager Manny Acta for putting the “slumping” Carlos Santana back in the cleanup spot and offering a perfectly sound reason for doing so: "He leads our team in on-base percentage," he said. "That means he's making the least amount of outs on our team. I'm not a big stat guy, but outs are an important thing in this game, and he makes fewer outs than anyone we have."

Well, Acta understates things a bit … outs aren’t just an “important thing” in baseball, they’re the most important. It’s why I stress on-base percentage so often. If you’re looking at one stat for a hitter, look at his OBP. It’s also interesting that he described himself as “not a big stats guy” when he’s actually known as a manager who is versed in sabermetric studies and numbers.

3. Francisco Liriano was really good on Sunday, taking a no-hitter into the eight against Texas. He was much more impressive than in his sloppy no-hitter earlier this against the White Sox, throwing strikes and getting ahead of hitter. After a long bottom of the seventh when the Twins scored five runs and ran through three Texas pitchers, Liriano fell behind 3-0 to Adrian Beltre and then grooved a 3-1 fastball that Beltre lined into left-center. Can the Twins really climb back into the AL Central race? They’ve won nine of 11, allowing four runs or less in 10 of those games, and are 9.5 games back. However, they’re still 13 games under .500. So even if the Tigers and Indians play .500 ball, the Twins would need to reel off 18 wins a row just to catch them.

Rant of the Week

I read a column in a New York newspaper that said Joba Chamberlain got hurt because of the way he was handled. Now, it was a pretty absurd accusation to make: It’s impossible to pinpoint a reason for his injury and nobody knows the answer. Pitchers get hurt all the time; unfortunately, it’s part of the game. Now, even more ridiculously, the writer suggested that Chamberlain’s injury means the Yankees need to throw their young stud pitchers in Double-A -- Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances -- more innings, like Nolan Ryan is doing in Texas. Banuelos and Betances are averaging barely more than five innings per start. Banuelos is also just 20 years old. And this we do know: Pitchers that young should be protected; one reason we have so many young, dominant pitchers now compared to 15 years ago is that they were handled much more carefully in the minors. As for Joba, maybe the Yankees did mishandle him. Or maybe he just never was going to be good as the New York media and Yankees fan wanted him to be. As for Ryan, I guess it’s worth pointing out that he didn’t develop any of the pitchers on the Texas staff. And as for his Double-A staff, prized prospect Martin Perez has pitched 65.2 innings in 12 starts … barely five innings a start.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
ScoreboardRick Osentoski/US PresswireLet the scoreboard do the talking. We'll stand over here quiet for a second or two.
CastroDustin Bradford/Icon SMICubs shortstop Starlin Castro hit .300 as a rookie and is hitting .322 so far this season.
Baseball is the only sport in which the defense has possession of the ball. They might have written songs called "Centerfield" or about the three men who played that position in New York City in the 1950s, but shortstop has always been the glamour position for baseball's most dynamic glove men. There is simply something special about the way the word "shortstop" sounds, especially when pronounced by the late Bob Sheppard in his recorded Derek Jeter Yankee Stadium introduction.

Between them, Barry Larkin and Nomar Garciaparra started exactly 3,100 major league games at shortstop through careers that included batting titles and Gold Glove, Silver Slugger and MVP awards. Larkin hit .295 over 19 big league seasons in Cincinnati, from 1986 through 2004. In 2009, Garciaparra retired with a .313 career batting average after 14 years in the majors, nine of them in Boston. Over the course of their careers and now into retirement, they've watched their position evolve.

"I think my era was more of a transition to Nomar's time," said Larkin, who played until he was 40 years old, when he still hit .289. "There was more of an emphasis on defense when I came up as opposed to, I think, than when Nomar came up."

Garciaparra, who hit a staggering .372 in 2000, said the position prototype didn't change from Mark Belanger to Troy Tulowitzki overnight. "Shortstop has always been about defense first," he said. "That's what made the transition you talked about, why our eras connected, because the guys still played defense. That was first and foremost. When I was playing it was still about defense. The Jeters, the A-Rods, the Tejadas, it was all about defense first. They just happened to be able to hit as well."

Larkin and Garciaparra were both much more than shortstops; both were organizational icons, the face of a franchise. Jeter is such a player in New York, as is Jimmy Rollins in Philadelphia. That list, however, is shorter now than it's been in decades, so I asked both former shortstops about the evolution of the position and the players they watch play shortstop today.

Shortstop you most enjoy watching right now

Larkin -- Starlin Castro, Cubs: "This guy has all kinds of ability. Offensively. Defensively, you can see the plays he makes with flashes of brilliance here and there. He's gonna be successful in Chicago for many, many years. I love watching guys and see them develop in the big leagues."

Garciaparra -- Hanley Ramirez, Marlins: "I just love watching Hanley Ramirez play. First and foremost as a shortstop, he plays great defense. He makes the plays behind his pitcher. But he can run, steal bases and he can hit third and fourth in any lineup in the major leagues. He supplies that power, supplies that leadership on the offensive side."

Shortstop who might outgrow the position based on offensive production

Larkin -- Ian Desmond, Nationals: "I got a chance after I retired in 2005 to go work with the Washington Nationals and I saw this guy as an 18-year old kid just develop. He's put on over two inches and probably 20 pounds of maturation and has unbelievable ability. My question is, he's growing so quickly, is he gonna ever stop?"

Garciaparra -- Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies: "He can play a Gold Glove shortstop but he's also a very big guy. I don't think people realize how big he is, probably because he played shortstop so well as a little guy with a great glove. He's a max-effort guy over there at shortstop so I can see him moving over maybe to third base (eventually), maybe to first base if they have somebody up and coming, to give him kind of a blow and last longer, especially with what his bat does in that lineup."

The best pure glove man

Larkin -- Alex Gonzalez, Braves: "I just marvel at this guy. When we'd play against him, I would come out and watch him take ground balls at shortstop and you could see him turn the double play. Strong arm. His thing has been health. A great, great glove man."

Garciaparra -- Alcides Escobar, Royals. "This guy has range. He covers everything. You think it's a base hit? Nope, he's got it. And he's got a hose to go with it. He can go to the backhand and still have enough on it to whip it over there. When he does throw that ball? I know I had a lot of movement on my ball and I felt bad for the first baseman. But he throws the ball and it stays straight and on a line and it hits him right in the chest."

Most unheralded shortstop you played with or against

Larkin -- Jack Wilson, Mariners: "He's now playing second base for Seattle, but when he was in Pittsburgh and playing shortstop he was just absolutely unbelievable. Jack Wilson is a guy that no one really talks about; unbelievable defensive shortstop."

Garciaparra -- John McDonald, Blue Jays: "This guy has been kind of a utility guy. I can just have a video of all his Web Gems. His range and the plays he makes are just truly unbelievable and I can just sit there and watch him over and over again. He makes plays at shortstop, he makes them down at second, he makes them at third. He's just a great glove."

Shortstop lifetime achievement award

Larkin -- Dave Concepcion: "Growing up in Cincinnati I used to imitate and emulate Davey Concepcion. He actually taught me the bounce throw to first base, but he was my guy. If you weren't a Reds fan growing up in Cincinnati there was something wrong with you and I was a huge Davey Concepcion fan. He got it done defensively and he could swing the bat a little bit as well."

Garciaparra -- Omar Vizquel: "I don't think he's ever got a bad hop in his career. We talked about going out there early and watching somebody take infield? He was one of them. I just wanted to know one day ... one day, even for maybe just three ground balls, to feel what his hands really feel like. It's incredible."

It's long been expected that a shortstop provide his team with a sense of leadership, or at least dependability. Even with a greater emphasis on offensive production the men who spent professional careers playing shortstop still go back to defense as the very nature of the position. "The standard is making the routine play," Larkin says. The days of an Ed Brinkman playing 15 seasons at shortstop while hitting .224 are almost certainly over. After all, the infamous "Mendoza Line" is named after a man who made 420 of his 424 career starts at shortstop. However, even the relatively recent arrival of the slugging shortstop -- guys like Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Tejada -- still has its link to the past. "The offense was so good that people overlooked that they were also great defensive shortstops," said Garciaparra. "That's why they played shortstop and I think now we see these new up-and-coming guys are continuing that trend."

Follow Steve on Twitter: @SBerthiaumeESPN.

This is always fun. And a reminder that spring training stats are meaningless. But fun. Your 2011 spring training All-Stars:

C Buster Posey, Giants: He's hitting .422/.544/.711, plays great defense, shows precocious leadership skills, is helping pay part of Barry Zito's salary, generates his free time to visiting sick children, volunteers at an animal shelter, offers free batting tips to kids after games, runs five miles a day and enjoys reading the classics on his off days. Now, if he could only get Tim Lincecum to eat a healthy diet.

1B Kila Ka'aihue, Royals: With a .411/.476/.875 line, seven homers and 20 RBIs, he's our 2011 spring training MVP!

2B Willie Bloomquist, Diamondbacks: Hitting .400 in 65 at-bats. All these years, all he needed was a chance to play every day.

3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: Hitting .404 with six home runs. Test that popcorn!

SS Alcides Escobar, Royals: Hitting .358 with five home runs. Looks like the Royals won the Zack Greinke trade.

OF Alex Gordon, Royals: Hitting .353/.470/.750, with six home runs and 23 RBIs in 23 games. Well, he has always hit minor league pitching.

OF Mike Morse, Nationals: He's mashed to the tune of a .365 average with nine home runs. The Mariners called. They want him back to hit cleanup. (Sadly, that's not actually a joke. He could be their cleanup hitter.)

OF Melky Cabrera, Royals: Hitting .483 with 18 RBIs in 23 games. I don't know about you, but I'm starting to get excited about the Royals.

UT Jake Fox, Orioles: With 10 home runs and seven doubles, Fox has produced an .808 slugging percentage, making him the Barry Bonds of spring training ... minus the court dates, the walks and the ex-mistress talking about your physique. Although who knows what Fox looks like with his shirt off.

P Justin Verlander, Tigers: 3-0, 0.96 ERA, 23/3 SO/BB ratio. Bring on the Yankees.

P Taylor Buchholz, Mets: He's pitched the most innings of anyone this spring to not allow a run (14). And you were worried about the Mets.

P Roy Halladay, Phillies: 4-0, 0.42 ERA, one run in 21.2 innings. But he's walked six guys, so maybe Phillies fans should be concerned.

P Kyle McClellan, Cardinals: 4-0, 0.78 ERA, 12 hits in 23 innings. The Royals need to trade for this guy to ensure their pennant hopes!

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Hot stove myths (or not)

November, 18, 2009
11/18/09
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From our old friend J.C. Bradbury -- here writing for the Huffington Post -- come four hot-stove myths:

1. GMs can buy low and sell high
"GMs have made mistakes in the past and will make mistakes again, but they're not dumb enough to act on a meaningless hot/cold streak. You can't sell high or buy low and profit financially because all GMs understand these things."

Really? I have a few hundred counter-examples if anyone's interested.

2. The number of free agents at a position affects the price of free agents at a position
"The increased supply of players is canceled out by the increased demand by teams needing replacements."

Absolutely not true. Sure, it's somewhat canceled out. But completely? No way. The Brewers just traded J.J. Hardy. Does that mean they have to turn to the free-agent market to fill their hole at shortstop? Of course not, because they've already got Alcides Escobar. The Dodgers have two free-agent second basemen in Ronnie Belliard and Orlando Hudson. They'll probably re-sign one of them, but if not do they have to venture into the pool of free-agent second basemen? Not necessarily, because they've got young Blake DeWitt at hand. One can't evaluate the price of free agents without also looking at the pool of other available players.

3. Every trade has a winner and a loser
"Swapping resources only takes place if both parties are made better off ... Mistakes happen, but as a general rule, all parties to trades are winners. Who says economists aren't touchy-feely?"

I'm not sure who says that, but a lot of people say that economists often forget that we live in a real world, rather than a theoretical world. Economists like models, but unfortunately models don't work particularly well unless you assume that all actors in your model are "rational" ... so that's what economists do, even in the face of overwhelming evidence that all actors are not rational. Maybe that's why economics is called "the dismal science"?

4. Players peak at 27 and old players are worthless
"Players peak at 29-30. And just because a guy is past his peak doesn't mean he's not valuable."

Reasonable people still disagree about peak ages ... 27, 28, 29, whatever. I just say "late 20s" and figure that's close enough for baseball players and hand grenades. But who exactly is saying that "old players are worthless"? Nobody bothers much with age except analysts, and the analysts absolutely love Mike Cameron (36) and Derek Jeter (35). Granted, I just happened to notice that if you make a list of the best players in the majors right now, nearly all of them are still in their 20s. But a good player is a good player, whether he's 28 or 38.

Maybe I'm not being fair to Bradbury, who's writing for something of a general audience here. General audiences can be a lot smarter than you think, though.

Brewers holding prospects this time

June, 23, 2009
6/23/09
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MLB Rumors' Drew Silva on the prospect of the Brewers trading prospects:
    According to the Associated Press, via ESPN.com, the Brewers aren't likely to part with either third baseman Mat Gamel or shortstop Alcides Escobar before the July 31 trade deadline.

    This represents a refreshing change in club philosophy from last season, when Milwaukee unloaded top outfield prospect Matt LaPorta to the Indians for a couple months of CC Sabathia. Gamel, 23, is batting .244/.326/.402 with two home runs and 12 RBI through his first 82 major league at-bats, while the 22-year-old Escobar is coming into his own at the Triple-A level with 18 doubles, four triples and three home runs in 285 at-bats.

    The Brewers are 37-32 this season, one game behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.

LaPorta's a first baseman or a corner outfielder. The Brewers had (and have) in those spots: Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, and Ryan Braun. All of them fairly young, all of them fairly cheap. Sure, I would have recommended trading Fielder instead of LaPorta in the quest for pitching, but: 1) it's not likely that the Brewers could have gotten Sabathia for Fielder; and 2) who would you rather have in 2009: LaPorta or Fielder?

The trade last season worked exactly as such trades are supposed to work. The Brewers unloaded a bit of surplus talent, they picked up a pitcher without whom they absolutely would not have reached the postseason, and they picked up a couple of draft picks when said pitcher signed with the Yankees.

It's not often, though, that you can pick up a difference-maker like Sabathia. Also, Gamel and Escobar aren't necessarily surplus. Gamel's a third baseman; the Brewers need a third baseman. Escobar's a shortstop; the Brewers don't necessarily need a shortstop, but they might need a second baseman at some point within the next 12 months. Yes, it would be a waste of talent to play Escobar or J.J. Hardy at second base, and perhaps one of them should be exchanged for help at that position or some other. But now isn't the time.

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