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OK, I'll give you Justin Verlander.

I'll even give you Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson.

But five through 25? I think I'll take the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.

The Indians beat the Tigers 5-3 on Tuesday, even though Ubaldo Jimenez struggled once again with his control. Relief ace Chris Perez, who criticized Indians fans on Saturday for their lack of support (Cleveland is last in the majors in attendance), was greeted with a thunderous ovation as he came in out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. With two runners on, he struck out Cabrera and got Fielder to ground out.

Just another save. "That's the loudest I've ever been cheered here," Perez said. "I was pumped, the adrenaline was going. It could have gone the other way. I came through. I didn't know which way it was going to go. I was thankful it went the good way."

The good way pushed the Indians to 24-18. The Tigers are 20-22, and for the life of me I can't understand why everyone still thinks Detroit is the better team. Mind you, I'm not saying the Indians are better. I just don't see why the Tigers are better. Just because everyone picked them before the season?

Once you get past those big shiny names on the Tigers' roster, if you want to pinpoint one big difference between the two clubs, it's a little statistic that us sabermetric types love: the old base on balls. The Indians lead the American League with 188 walks, 25 more than any other team; the Tigers have 127 walks, ninth in the league. That patience will go a long ways toward giving Cleveland an offense capable of scoring as many runs as Detroit's (the Indians have outscored the Tigers by one run so far, 184 to 183).

In fact, when you go position by position, you'll see what I mean.

Catcher: Carlos Santana versus Alex Avila. So far, Avila has been unable to match 2011's .366 average on balls in play, the sixth-best average in the majors. Which means he's hitting like he did in 2010. Santana, meanwhile, is a walks machine who hit 27 home runs in 2011.

First base: Casey Kotchman versus Prince Fielder. Obvious edge to Fielder, of course. The most interesting thing about his start (.292/.354/.472) is his walk rate is down from 15.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Part of that is he was intentionally walked 32 times a year ago, just three this year.

Second base: Jason Kipnis versus Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn. Please. Big edge to Kipnis with Santiago and Raburn both hitting under .200. Will Detroit make a move here?

Third base: Jack Hannahan/Jose Lopez versus Miguel Cabrera. This may be the first and only time you'll see Jose Lopez mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera. So far, however, this edge has been minimal. Cabrera is hitting .304/.362/.488, Hannahan .287/.365/.436 but with better defense. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera has cost the Tigers four runs -- worst among third basemen (tied with Hanley Ramirez).

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera versus Jhonny Peralta. With the Indians preaching plate discipline, check out Cabrera: Last year, 44 walks and 119 strikeouts; this year, 18 walks and just 12 strikeouts. He's hitting .309 with an OBP over .400 but hasn't lost any power. In 2011, he swung at 31 percent of the pitches out of the strike but he has cut that down to 24 percent. Small differences can go a long way. Peralta was a big surprise for Detroit last season but hasn't matched the numbers in the plate or in the field.

Left field: Johnny Damon/Shelley Duncan versus Andy Dirks/Delmon Young. Damon has looked terrible. Dirks has looked great, but too early to evaluate this one.

Center field: Michael Brantley versus Austin Jackson. With his defense and hot start at the plate, Jackson has been as valuable as any player in the American League not named Josh Hamilton.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo versus Brennan Boesch. This one isn't close and that's with Choo off to a middling start in the power department. Choo has a .391 OBP, Boesch a .271 OBP. Choo is a solid defender while Boesch is slow and lumbering. With his poor start at the plate and poor defense, Boesch has been one of the worst regular in baseball so far. Choo is an underrated asset and I love Manny Acta's decision to move him into the leadoff spot.

Designated hitter: Travis Hafner versus field. Cleveland's designated hitters have six homers and .370 OBP (fourth in the league). Detroit's DHs have one home run and a .238 OBP (13th in the league). Big, big edge to Pronk.

Rotation. With the best pitcher on the planet, Detroit's rotation has posted a 3.87 ERA; without the best pitcher on the planet, Cleveland's rotation has posted a 3.94 ERA. Both teams have played 42 games and Cleveland's starters have thrown 12 more innings. Moving forward, maybe you think Detroit's group will perform better. After all, Doug Fister missed some, Max Scherzer just struck out 15 in game (never mind that the Pirates have been an historic strikeout binge of late) and Rick Porcello will put it together one of these years, because everyone says so. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez can't throw strikes, Justin Masterson hasn't pitched as well as last year and Derek Lowe is doing it with smoke, mirrors and a deal with the devil. The one thing the Cleveland starters do is keep the ball in the park; they've allowed 20 home runs, second-fewest in the league. Look, maybe you think Scherzer will start pitching better; I'd say so will Masterson. Maybe you're a Porcello believer; I'm not, especially with that infield defense behind him. Lowe is a fluke? Well, let's see how Drew Smyly does as the scouting reports get around on him.

Bullpen. Neither pen has been stellar, as Cleveland's 4.16 ERA ranks 13th in the AL and Detroit's 4.76 ranks 14th. Cleveland's top guys, however, have been pretty solid -- Chris Perez is 14 of 15 in save opportunities while Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone have pitched well. Detroit's top two of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit, so dominant a year ago, have both struggled to throw strikes.

I said before the season that I believed the Tigers were drastically overrated. On the Baseball Today podcast late in spring training, I predicted Cleveland would win the division. Unfortunately, when ESPN.com published predictions a few days later, I changed my pick to Detroit. I bought into the hype.

I'm not buying any longer. This division is wide, wide open. (And I haven't even mentioned the White Sox!)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Sometimes the analysis is pretty easy.

The Detroit Tigers' lineup on Sunday featured 31-year-old minor league veteran Brad Eldred, who last played regularly in the majors in 2005, hitting fifth. He was followed by Ryan Raburn, Ramon Santiago, Gerald Laird and Danny Worth. You're not going to beat CC Sabathia with that group.

In recent days, Tigers relievers have included Luke Putkonen, Collin Balester, Brayan Villarreal and Thad Weber. Who? Villarreal was the losing pitcher on Friday night versus the New York Yankees.

On Sunday, Max Scherzer walked seven batters in a 6-2 loss to the Yankees. Earlier in the week he got hit around by the Mariners. His ERA is 7.77 and he has yet to pitch more than six innings in any of his five starts.

In 2011, Rick Porcello ranked 84th among 93 qualified pitchers in ERA. Still, many projected a breakout season. Good stuff, they say, good hard sinker. So far, it has been the same Porcello: A lot of hits allowed and not many strikeouts. Two starts ago against the Texas Rangers, he got three outs and gave up 10 hits and nine runs. Against the Seattle Mariners, he gave up five runs and two home runs. He has a 6.45 ERA.

With Doug Fister on the disabled list, rookie Adam Wilk made three starts, losing all three and allowing 21 hits in 11 innings.

Despite batting in front of Miguel Cabrera, No. 2 hitter Brennan Boesch is hitting .231 and has just two walks with 20 strikeouts.

Prince Fielder is finding the pitching a little tougher in the American League. After homering twice against the Boston Red Sox in the second game of the season, he didn't homer again until Sunday.

Left fielder/designated hitter Delmon Young was placed on the restricted list after getting arrested on Friday for allegedly attacking a man in front of a Manhattan hotel and yelling anti-Semitic remarks.

Closer Jose Valverde and setup man Joaquin Benoit hardly look like the dominant duo of a year ago, having allowed 23 hits and 16 walks in 19 innings.

Listening to the Tigers' local radio broadcast the other day, the announcers described the team's energy as listless.

And then there's the defense. Entering Sunday, the Tigers ranked 26th in the majors in defensive runs saved, at 13 runs below average. It's not all Cabrera's fault. He's at minus-2, but Jhonny Peralta is minus-4 at shortstop, Fielder minus-3 at first base, Boesch minus-3 in right field and Raburn minus-2 at second base. The totals should not be surprising as none of them have a reputation for being good defensive players.

That 4-0 start seems like a long time ago to Tigers fans. After starting 9-3, the Tigers have gone 2-8, they've been outscored by 10 runs on the season and their flaws have been exposed like a leaky pipe -- drip, drip, drip, a slow understanding that something isn't right. Detroit doesn't appear to be the super team it looked the first week of the season, but rather a team with little depth in the bullpen, a starting rotation that is relying too heavily on Justin Verlander, poor defense, and a lineup that needs Alex Avila and Peralta to start hitting.

Leyland showed some frustration after Sunday's loss, telling MLB.com that a crucial 2-2 pitch to Derek Jeter that he checked his swing on and was called a ball wasn't a bad call, even though catcher Laird said Scherzer hit his target. "That's all excuse stuff," Leyland said. "That Jeter pitch was a close pitch, but when you're that wild, you're not going to get close pitches."

Instead of escaping the inning, Scherzer allowed two more runs and he ended up throwing 119 pitches without getting out of the fifth inning. "Max is a huge key for us. It has to get better, plain and simple," Leyland said.

Is this a bad time to mention that all 50 ESPN.com voters in our preseason predictions file picked the Tigers to win the AL Central? Obviously, that cast the Tigers as overwhelming favorites to win the division. I was one of those 50, although I hesitated, even once saying on the "Baseball Today" podcast that I was going to pick Cleveland to win the division, before changing my mind when I had to submit my vote.

OK, it's just 22 games and the Tigers are only one game out of first place in the AL Central, a division that has been collectively outscored by 63 runs so far. Rookie lefty Drew Smyly has been impressive. That still makes the Tigers the heavy favorite in this field of five.

If you want other good news, according to our RPI standings, the Tigers have also played the fourth-toughest schedule in the majors so far. The next month presents a schedule that could prove much kinder: Kansas City, the White Sox, at Seattle, at Oakland, at the White Sox, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, at Minnesota. Tigers fans will undoubtedly point out that Detroit was 25-26 as late as May 29 a year ago, and tied for first as late as July 20, before finishing with a 38-16 kick over the final two months. That surge coincided with Fister's arrival from Seattle, as he went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA. Fister threw a bullpen session on Thursday and will make his first rehab start on Wednesday in Toledo, as he returns from a strained rib cage muscle.

Still, the Tigers will need more than Fister's return. They need Scherzer and Porcello to pitch better. They need a reliable arm in the bullpen besides Octavio Dotel. They need Fielder to start slugging. They need the defense to help out the pitchers a little more. Young? Ahh, he's not that good anyway.

In the end, I see an imperfect team, certainly not one that will win 100 games or even 95. I see a good team in a weak division, but a team that could easily finish fifth in the AL East. I see a team that is ripe for a surprise pennant race if one of their division rivals puts it together.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Are we in a golden age for catchers? In the wake of the Carlos Santana contract extension, there was some debate on where he ranks among the game's elite backstops. My colleague Eric Karabell called him the best catcher in the game.

I'm not sure Santana is in that class yet, although his power/walks combo could make him one of the most valuable players in the game even if he hits just .260. What makes that declaration difficult to make is we have so many good catchers right now. In 2011, we had six that posted a 3.5 WAR or higher (via Baseball-Reference.com):

Mike Napoli, Rangers: 5.5
Alex Avila, Tigers: 5.4
Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks: 4.5
Matt Wieters, Orioles: 4.0
Yadier Molina, Cardinals: 3.9
Carlos Santana, Indians: 3.9

And that list doesn't include six-time All-Star Brian McCann (2.5 WAR), Nationals rookie Wilson Ramos (2.5) or Joe Mauer and Buster Posey, who battled injuries. On top of that are promising Royals youngster Salvador Perez, who will miss the first half of the season with a torn meniscus in his knee; plus Reds rookie Devin Mesoraco and Blue Jays prospect Travis d'Arnaud, two of Keith Law's top 10 prospects entering the season. What's even more remarkable about this list is Napoli is the oldest of the 13 at 30 years old.

Is this much catching talent unusual? I looked at all seasons since 1969 with at least six catchers who posted 3.5 WAR or better.


I think there's an argument that we have the most catching depth in the majors since the late '70s. Looking at the 1977 guys, Ferguson, Tenace and Munson were the oldest of the group, each 30. Ferguson was a guy who had been a backup catcher/outfielder with the Dodgers but got a chance to play more for the Astros in '77. He was never a full-time player again. Munson declined precipitously in 1978 before his early death in 1979. Johnny Bench was only 29 but only had a couple more good seasons left. Of the younger guys, Gary Carter, of course, developed into a Hall of Famer catcher, but the Mets' John Stearns (25 years old) and Butch Wynegar (21) never really grew from here. Stearns battled injuries and Wynegar's skill set never advanced beyond a guy who would take some walks. (Jon Shepherd of the Camden Depot blog looked at the number of 125 OPS+ seasons by catchers by decade.)

Still, you have an impressive group for 1977: Three Hall of Famers in Carlton Fisk, Bench and Carter; a borderline Hall of Famer in Ted Simmons; Gene Tenace, a Santana-like player who drew a ton of walks and hit home runs; a former MVP winner in Munson; and a longtime defensive ace in Jim Sundberg, comparable to Yadier Molina.

Unless Mauer bounces back or one of the younger guys turns into a superstar, our current crop may lack the top-end caliber of Fisk, Bench and Carter. But the depth is phenomenal, and the youth means these guys are going to around a long time. Enjoy them. It's a special group.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

It would be easy to pile on the Boston Red Sox right now. Rip apart the bullpen. Mock all those who said Jonathan Papelbon wasn't worth $50 million. Make fun of Bobby Valentine or Red Sox Nation already being thrown into a fit of worry. Or just suggest that they bring back fried chicken and beer to the clubhouse.

But the more reasoned response: It's just three games. Three painful losses, but still just three losses. The Phillies won 102 games in 2011 and had four streaks of at least three losses, including an eight-game streak. The Yankees won the AL with 97 wins and had six streaks of at least three losses in a row. So let's not overreact just yet.

Instead, let's give credit to the Detroit Tigers. They capped a series sweep of Boston with a stunning 13-12 victory on Sunday, a game featuring 35 hits, 391 pitches, 13 pitchers and two gigantic blown saves by Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon. After hitting his dramatic walk-off home run in the 11th inning, Tigers catcher Alex Avila summed up the wild contest: "You don't see those kinds of games at this level very often. There's really no rhyme or reason or explanation for it."

The Tigers aren't a three-man team. They weren't a two-man team a year ago. And while Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder could prove to be one of the most lethal offensive duos we've seen in several years, Avila could prove to be a deadly third weapon in the order. Avila mostly flew under the national radar last season, although he was voted in as the All-Star starter. His .295/.389/.506 line wasn't superb just for a catcher -- he ranked fifth in the AL in on-base percentage and eighth in OPS. Despite that, Jim Leyland kept Avila in the bottom of the order most of the season, with most of his starts (61) coming in the eighth spot. On Opening Day, Avila hit eighth. He's been sixth the past two games. I don't think he'll be headed back to the bottom of the lineup any time soon.

Against Melancon, Avila fouled off a 2-2 fastball and then smoked a curveball just over the fence in right field. "Hanging curveball," Melancon told reporters after the game. "It was a hanger and he hit it out.''

Avila is a key to the Detroit lineup. As good as the Cabrera-Fielder combo is, they need production from other spots. Leadoff hitter Austin Jackson is off to a blazing start with a .571 average, but his OBP a year ago was just .317, a reason the Tigers ranked just 24th in leadoff OBP. No. 5 hitter Delmon Young is another hitter with historically low OBP issues, just .302 a year ago and .321 career. He may drive in 100 runs by mistake hitting after Cabrera and Fielder, but he projects as one of the weaker No. 5 hitters in the league.

That puts pressure on Avila in the No. 6 spot. Assuming he stays there, he'll also get a lot of RBI opportunities. He's patient and grinds at-bats -- he had two walks as well on Sunday. He'll likely face a lot of situational lefties late in games; he held his own against left-handers a year ago (.273) but isn't as dangerous against same-side hurlers. But that's a small nitpick. He's solid behind the plate (threw out 32 percent of base stealers in 2011) and if he produces like 2011, you'll start seeing Avila mentioned more on a national scale: As maybe the best catcher in the game, in the same breath as guys like Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Buster Posey and Yadier Molina.

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

We're back with more divisional position rankings for 2012. You can scream, you can holler, you can protest and call me names. But just because I rated your player lower than you think he deserves doesn't mean I hate your team.

(Here are the NL East and NL West rankings.)

Catcher
1. Alex Avila, Tigers
2. Joe Mauer, Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Indians
4. Salvador Perez, Royals
5. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox

The AL Central might not be baseball's glamor division, but it may have three of the top five catchers in the game if Mauer bounces back from his injury-plagued campaign. Since we're not certain of his health, I'm going to give top billing to Avila, who had the best hitting numbers of any catcher outside of Mike Napoli and plays solid defense. I wouldn't be surprised if Santana explodes; with his power-and-walks combo, all he has to do is raise his average 30 points and he'll be one of the most valuable players in the game. Considering that his average on balls in play was .263, there is a good chance of that happening. Perez hit .331 in 39 games; OK, he won't do that again, but he doesn't turn 22 until May and puts the ball in play. There's no shame in being fifth in this group but that's where I have to place Pierzynski, who keeps rolling along and is now 36th on the all-time list for games caught.

First base
1. Prince Fielder, Tigers
2. Paul Konerko, White Sox
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals
4. Justin Morneau, Twins
5. Matt LaPorta, Indians

In 2009, when Morneau played 135 games, he hit .274 AVG/.363 OBP/.516 SLG. Even if he replicates that line, he may rank only fourth. Konerko has hit a combined .306 with 70 home runs the past two seasons. He's 104 home runs from 500 but turns 36 in March, so he's probably four seasons away; not sure he'll hang on that long, but who knew he'd be this good at this age. If Hosmer improves his walk rate and defense and Konerko declines, Hosmer could climb past him. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next. The most similar batter to him at age 21: Eddie Murray.

Second base
1. Jason Kipnis, Indians
2. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
3. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
4. Alexi Casilla, Twins
5. Ramon Santiago, Tigers

Well, this isn't exactly a Robinson Cano/Dustin Pedroia/Ben Zobrist debate, is it? Kipnis' bat is a sure thing, as evidenced by his excellent play after his call-up (.272 average and .507 slugging in 36 games). His glove was once a question mark but now appears solid enough that he looks like a future All-Star to me. Can anybody explain what has happened to Beckham? He's second mostly by default; he's gone downhill since his superb rookie season in 2009 but is only 25, so there's hope that he'll find those skills again. Giavotella has some potential with the bat (.338/.390/.481 at Triple-A), which is more than you can say for Casilla and Santiago.

Third base
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Mike Moustakas, Royals
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
4. Danny Valencia, Twins
5. Brent Morel, White Sox

We'll go with the idea that Cabrera is Detroit's starting third baseman, although I predict he'll end up starting more games at designated hitter. Manager Jim Leyland will end up doing a lot of mixing of his lineups, but for this little exercise we have to choose a starter. Moustakas didn't tear up the league as a rookie and I worry about his ability to hit lefties (.191, homerless in 89 at-bats), but he showed more than fellow rookies Chisenhall and Morel. Valencia doesn't get on base enough and he rated poorly on defense in 2011. I hope he's at least good in the clubhouse. Morel was terrible all season and then exploded for eight of his 10 home runs in September and drew 15 walks after drawing just seven the previous five months. Maybe something clicked.

Shortstop
1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
2. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
4. Alcides Escobar, Royals
5. Jamey Carroll, Twins

Peralta had the best 2011 season, but he's a difficult guy to project. He had an .804 OPS in 2008 but dropped to .691 in 2009. He had a .703 OPS in 2010 and then .823 in 2011. I just don't see a repeat season, at the plate or in the field. Cabrera didn't rate well on the defensive metrics, and after a strong start he wore down in the second half. Ramirez has turned into a nice player, with a good glove and some power, and he even draws a few walks now. Escobar is a true magician with the glove. Carroll is actually a useful player who gets on base (.356 career OBP), but he's pushed as an everyday shortstop and he'll be 38. He'll be issued the honorary Nick Punto locker in the Twins' clubhouse.

Left field
1. Alex Gordon, Royals
2. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
3. Ben Revere, Twins
4. Michael Brantley/Shelley Duncan, Indians
5. Ryan Raburn/Don Kelly, Tigers

I'm not sure what to do here. After Gordon, I just get a headache. We'll pretend to believe in De Aza after his impressive stint in the majors (171 plate appearances, .329/.400/.920). He's hit in Triple-A for three seasons now, and while he's not going to post a .400 OBP again, he should be adequate. Revere is one of the fastest players in the majors, but he's all speed and defense; he hopes to grow up to be Brett Gardner, which isn't a bad thing, but he'll have to learn to get on base at a better clip. Brantley doesn't have one outstanding skill so he'll have to hit better than .266 to be anything more than a fourth outfielder; Duncan provides some right-handed pop as a platoon guy. The Tigers have Delmon Young, but I'll slot him at DH. That leaves supposed lefty masher Raburn and utility man Kelly to soak up at-bats; both had an OBP below .300 in 2011, although Raburn has hit better in the past.

Center field
1. Austin Jackson, Tigers
2. Denard Span, Twins
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Lorenzo Cain, Royals
5. Alex Rios, White Sox

I can't rate Sizemore any higher since he's played just 104 games over the past two seasons, and he hasn't had a big year since 2008. Rios was terrible in '09, OK in '10 and worse than terrible in '11. I'm not betting on him.

Right field
1. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
2. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
3. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
4. Josh Willingham, Twins
5. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox

Choo would like to forget 2011, but there's no reason he shouldn't bounce back and play like he did in 2009 and 2010, when he was one of the 10 best position players in the AL. I don't expect Francoeur to deliver 71 extra-base hits again, but maybe he'll surprise us. Viciedo is apparently nicknamed "The Tank," which makes me wonder how much ground he can cover. He did improve his walk rate last season in the minors and turns 23 in March, so there's still room for more growth.

Designated hitter
1. Billy Butler, Royals
2. Travis Hafner, Indians
3. Ryan Doumit, Twins
4. Delmon Young, Tigers
5. Adam Dunn, White Sox

Has there been a bigger prospect disappointment than Young in the past decade? I mean, yes, there were complete busts like Brandon Wood and Andy Marte, but those guys had obvious holes in their games, while Young was viewed as a sure thing, a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. But his bat has never lived up to its billing. Other than one decent year in Minnesota, he has low OBPs and he clearly lacked range in the outfield. His career WAR on Baseball-Reference is minus-0.2 (1.6 on FanGraphs), meaning he's been worse than replacement level. He's just not that good, Tigers fans.

No. 1 starter
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. John Danks, White Sox
3. Justin Masterson, Indians
4. Luke Hochevar, Royals
5. Carl Pavano, Twins

Masterson was better than Danks in 2011, and I do believe his improvement was real. He absolutely crushes right-handers -- they slugged an anemic .259 off him. Danks had two bad months but has the longer track record of success. Even in his "off year" he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Masterson. If you want to argue about Hochevar versus Pavano, be my guest.

No. 2 starter
1. Doug Fister, Tigers
2. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
3. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
4. Francisco Liriano, Twins
5. Jonathan Sanchez, Royals

Yes, sign me up for the Doug Fister bandwagon club. Jimenez's fastball velocity was down a couple miles per hour last season but the positives are that his strikeout and walk rates were identical to 2010; he'll be better. Floyd isn't flashy but he's now made 30-plus starts four years in a row, and he'll become a very rich man when he becomes a free agent after this season. Sanchez won't have the luxury of pitching in San Francisco (and to eight-man NL lineups).

No. 3 starter
1. Max Scherzer, Tigers
2. Scott Baker, Twins
3. Philip Humber, White Sox
4. Bruce Chen, Royals
5. Josh Tomlin, Indians

I could be underrating Baker, who was excellent last season, but only once in his career has he made 30 starts in a season. Tomlin's fans will disagree with this ranking, but he's a finesse guy who relies on the best control in baseball (21 walks in 26 starts). He's the kind of guy you root for, but the league seemed to figure him out as the season progressed.

No. 4 starter
1. Felipe Paulino, Royals
2. Rick Porcello, Tigers
3. Jake Peavy, White Sox
4. Derek Lowe, Indians
5. Nick Blackburn, Twins

Scouts still love Porcello's arm and I know he's just 23, but he's made 89 big league starts and shown no signs of getting better. His WHIP has increased each season and his strikeout rate remains one of the lowest in baseball. Paulino has an electric arm -- he averaged 95 mph on his fastball -- and is getting better. How could the Rockies give up on him after just 14 innings? How could the Astros trade him for Clint Barmes? Anyway, kudos to the Royals for buying low on the guy who may turn into their best starter. Peavy can't stay healthy. Lowe has led his league in starts three out of the past four seasons, but I'm not sure that's a good thing anymore. Blackburn is a poor man's Lowe, and I don't mean that in a good way.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Sale, White Sox
2. Jacob Turner, Tigers
3. Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy, Royals
4. Fausto Carmona/David Huff/Jeanmar Gomez, Indians
5. Brian Duensing/Jason Marquis, Twins

Welcome to the AL Central crapshoot. Turner and Sale have the most upside, but one is a rookie and the other is converting from relief. Crow will also be given a shot at the rotation, but his difficulties against left-handed batters (.311 average allowed) don't bode well for that transition. Even if the artist formerly known as Carmona gets a visa, what do you have? A guy with a 5.01 ERA over the past four seasons. Duensing is another typical Twins pitcher, which means he at least throws strikes. His first full season in the rotation didn't go well, so of course the Twins brought in Marquis, yet another guy who doesn't strike anybody out.

Closer
1. Jose Valverde, Tigers
2. Joakim Soria, Royals
3. Matt Thornton, White Sox
4. Chris Perez, Indians
5. Matt Capps, Twins

Four good relievers plus Matt Capps. I do admit I'm a little perplexed by Perez, however. In 2009, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings. In 2010, that figure fell to 8.7 but he posted a pretty 1.71 ERA. In 2011, it was all the way down to 5.9, but without much improvement in his control. Perez blew only four saves but he did lose seven games. He survived thanks to a low .240 average on balls in play. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher but didn't serve up many home runs. Bottom line: I'd be nervous.

Bullpen
1. Indians -- Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone
2. Royals -- Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares
3. Tigers -- Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Al Alburquerque
4. White Sox -- Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod
5. Twins -- Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros

If you're starting to think I'm not high on the Twins for this season, you would be correct.

Intangibles
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Twins

I like the youthful exuberance of the Royals, plus the likelihood of improvement from the young players and the possibility of some midseason reinforcements from the minors. The depth of the bullpen will help bolster a shaky rotation, and this just feels like an organization that is finally starting to believe in itself. The Indians are riding last year's positive results and enter the season knowing they might get better production from Choo and Sizemore and full seasons from Kipnis and Chisenhall. I'm not knocking the Tigers here, but they do lack depth in the pitching staff and the pressure is on them.

The final tally
1. Tigers, 65 points
2. Royals, 55 points
3. Indians, 54 points
4. White Sox, 46 points
5. Twins, 35 points

No surprise here: The Tigers will be heavy favorites to win the division with a lineup that should score a ton of runs. I don't think it's a lock that they'll win -- Verlander, Avila, Peralta and Valverde will all be hard-pressed to repeat their 2011 campaigns, for example. But the Royals and Indians appear to have too many questions in the rotations, the White Sox have serious lineup issues, and the Twins have a beautiful ballpark to play their games in.

The American League Central may have a reputation as baseball's skinflint division, but such is not the case: The White Sox, Twins and Tigers each had payrolls over $100 million in 2011 and ranked in the top 10 of highest-salaried ballclubs.

The problem was that two of those three teams didn't get much for their money. Considering the issues in Chicago and Minnesota, and the youth and unwillingness to spend big in Cleveland and Kansas City, Detroit will enter 2012 as the heavy favorite to win the division -- no matter what happens in the offseason. But even the Tigers are far from a sure thing and if the Indians can get good health from Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore in 2012, plus strong seasons from youngsters Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall, their offense could be dramatically improved.

But that's getting ahead of ourselves. Here's a quick look at some action plans and items of interest for the five teams.

Detroit Tigers

1. Third base (Brandon Inge)

With Inge plummeting to a .197 average, Detroit's third-base production was among the worst in the majors. The team has already been linked to free agent Aramis Ramirez and trade discussions with Angels on Maicer Izturis. Both would be big upgrades over Inge, who still has one year remaining on his contract. The dark horse possibility: With Carlos Guillen ($13 million) and Magglio Ordonez ($10 million) off the books, the Tigers pursue Jose Reyes to fill their leadoff void, moving Jhonny Peralta to third base.

Likely solution: As much I love the Reyes idea, Ramirez to Detroit seems like a logical fit. The negatives are Ramirez's lack of range and Detroit's need for a little more athleticism in the lineup.



2. Middle relief

By the postseason, Jim Leyland was down to two relievers he trusted: Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit. Al Alburquerque had a strong rookie season out of nowhere and Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth provide rare power lefty arms, but Albuquerque and Schlereth still have trouble throwing strikes. The Tigers could go after a low-cost veteran like LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Gonzalez or Darren Oliver, or maybe make a trade pitch for White Sox lefty Matt Thornton, although it seems unlikely Chicago would trade Thornton to a division rival.

Likely solution: A veteran righty-hander, with the Tigers counting on improvement from Coke and Schlereth.

3. A left-handed bat.

The Tigers missed Brennan Boesch's stick in the playoffs, as Victor Martinez and the hobbled Alex Avila were the only threats from the left side (granted, Don Kelly hit a big home run). Boesch's return will help, but Detroit could use a lefty bat to help balance out the lineup.

Likely solution: Andy Dirks may given another shot at that third/fourth outfielder job after hitting .251/.296/.406 as a rookie. But what about Rockies left fielder Seth Smith, who is on the trade block? His career .518 slugging percentage against righties has been bolstered a bit by Coors Field, but he's a solid hitter who could platoon with Ryan Raburn in left, or allow Raburn to play some at second base.

Cleveland Indians

1. Find a left fielder who can hit.

Michael Brantley is a decent asset -- but as a center fielder. The plan to use Brantley as an everyday left fielder was never a great one to begin with, as he's never going to pop many balls over the fence. Brantley, Austin Kearns, Shelley Duncan and Travis Buck all started at least 20 games in left; Jared Head started six games there. As a group, Cleveland's left fielders hit a miserable .233 with seven home runs; only Baltimore and Minnesota received a lower OPS from their left fielders.

Likely solution: Signing Grady Sizemore doesn't necessarily push Brantley back to a starting role in left field. He's best used as a fourth outfielder and Sizemore insurance. Michael Cuddyer may end up getting priced out of Cleveland's range, so how former Twins teammate Jason Kubel? He can play left and step in as designated hitter when Travis Hafner suffers his inevitable breakdown.

2. Find at least one more starter.

Right now, the Indians can only count on Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez for their rotation. Carlos Carrasco is out for the season following Tommy John surgery, Fausto Carmona was terrible and even Josh Tomlin is a question mark after the league caught up to him in the second half (5.26 ERA).

Likely solution: Jeanmar Gomez has been roughed up in two stints in the majors (146 hits in 116 innings), but his Triple-A numbers were solid, if unspectacular. He'll be given another chance in spring training to battle David Huff for a rotation spot.

3. If not Matt LaPorta, who plays first base?

The big prospect acquired in the CC Sabathia deal, LaPorta just hasn't hit as expected, posting a .299 on-base percentage in 2011. The Indians seem ready to punt on LaPorta, who turns 27 in January so isn't even that young. Carlos Santana ended up playing a lot of first base down the stretch, but let's hope he's kept behind the plate, where his hitting value would be maximized.

Likely solution: If free agent Carlos Pena lowers his price, he's a possibility, and the Indians reportedly talked with Houston about Brett Wallace. I'm not sure Wallace is much of an upgrade over LaPorta, but at least he's younger. Casey Kotchman could fit nicely here as lower-cost alternative after posting a .378 OBP with Tampa. And hey, he's only two years older than LaPorta.

Chicago White Sox

1. What do you do with Adam Dunn and Alex Rios?

Dunn hit .159 with a .569 OPS. Rios hit .227 with a .613 OPS. Dunn was the least-valuable position player in baseball, according to Baseball-Reference.com, while Rios was seventh-worst. They made $24 million in 2011 and will make a combined $26 million in 2012. Both are signed through 2014.

Likely solution: General manager Kenny Williams will be busy during the winter meetings, perhaps shopping around guys like Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Matt Thornton, looking for some sort of backup plan to these two pieces of junk. The 40-man roster currently includes Alejandro De Aza, who probably deserves a chance to play somewhere after a nice run (if over his head) last season. Let's put it this way: he can produce an OPS higher than .613.

2. Third base (Brent Morel)

After struggling all season, hitting .250 with just two home runs and seven walks in 328 at-bats through August, Morel suddenly changed his approach in September, got more patient and swung for the fences. He hit just .224 the final month, but with eight home runs and 15 walks. Was it a legitimate improvement, or merely feasting off September tired arms and rookie call-ups?

Likely solution: Morel's hot September earns him another shot.

3. The new manager

This isn't so much an action plan, as a big question mark. Robin Ventura has no previous managerial experience, but the good sign for the White Sox is that respected pitching coach Don Cooper is still around to handle the pitching staff.

Likely solution: If Dunn and Rios stink it up again, it won't matter how well Ventura transitions into the job -- he'll be doomed.

Kansas City Royals

1. Fix the rotation

The Royals had a 4.82 ERA from their starters; only Baltimore was worse in the American League.

Likely solution: The Royals already made a move here, trading Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez. The club also re-signed Bruce Chen. With the signing of Jonathan Broxton, and the emergence of rookie relievers Greg Holland, Louis Coleman and Tim Collins in 2011, fellow 2011 rookie Aaron Crow will be given a shot at the rotation. I have my doubts it will work: Crow walked 31 in 62 innings out of the bullpen and left-handed hitters tagged him for a .311 average and .538 slugging percentage. There's a reason he struggled in the minors as a starter in 2010 (5.73 ERA). He has a great arm, but won't be able to rely on his fastball/slider combo as a starter.

2. Second base (Chris Getz)

Royals second basemen posted a .301 OBP and .636 OPS (26th in the majors) in 2011.

Likely solution: Rookie Johnny Giavotella played the final two months there and hit .247 with a .649 OPS. He'll head into spring training as the favorite to win the job. He hit .338/.390/.481 at Triple-A, so the batting potential is there: Bill James projects him to hit .295/.342/.419.

3. Center field (empty -- Cabrera traded)

The Royals were smart to deal Cabrera after his career season.

Likely solution: Lorenzo Cain, acquired from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke trade, will finally get a chance to play after spending 2011 in Triple-A. Cain is old for a guy still considered a prospect -- he turns 26 in April -- so he should be a polished product by now. He showed some power for the first time in his career, hitting 16 home runs for Omaha while batting .312. He doesn't walk much, so won't be a star, but should come closing to matching Cabrera's 2011 production.

Minnesota Twins

1. The M & M boys

After 2011's train wreck -- the club's first 90-loss season since 2000 (and at 99 losses, the most the 1982 Twins lost 102) -- it seems pretty clear this team will be dead in the water again unless Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau get healthy and regain their All-Star status. But they also can't assume these guys are going to play 140-plus games.

Likely solution: Obviously, the Twins need a better backup plan for Mauer than giving .167-hitting Drew Butera 250 plate appearances. They already accomplished with the smart signing of Ryan Doumit to a one-year deal for $3 million. Doumit can catch or play right field, but his bat is good enough to warrant a regular place in the lineup even when he's not behind the plate. Of course, he's also been injury-prone throughout his career. Prospect Chris Parmalee, who impressed in a September call-up, gives the team a potentially decent backup option for Morneau as well.

2. Right field: Empty (Michael Cuddyer, free agent)

For all the attention Cuddyer is getting, let's remember that he's really just a complementary bat on a good team. Unfortunately, considering some of the other outfielders the Twins tried last season -- Rene Tosoni, Jason Repko, Trevor Plouffe -- you realize they had nobody in the upper levels of the system.

Likely solution: Doumit may factor into their plans here, but regardless, the Twins need another bat to play a corner or DH. Smith is a trade option and free agent Josh Willingham is another possibility.

3. Closer: Empty (Matt Capps and Joe Nathan, free agents)

Nathan signed with Texas while GM Terry Ryan recently told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that it's likely Capps could return.

Likely solution: Capps was terrible last year, allowing 10 home runs in 65.2 innings while striking out just 4.7 hitters per nine innings. Two years ago, he had a 5.80 ERA. I can't fathom why any team would want to make Capps its closer. Sadly, however, the rest of the Minnesota bullpen is nearly as uninspiring (as is the rotation, but I don't have room to get to them here), but Capps throws strikes and there's nothing the Twins love more than a pitcher who throws strikes (velocity are ability to miss bats don't seem to be a factor). There's no reason for this team to spend big money on one of the remaining free-agent closers, so it probably will be Capps or lefty Glen Perkins.

Justin Verlander is hoping to become the first pitcher to win the MVP Award since Dennis Eckersley in 1992, and the first starting pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986. Jacoby Ellsbury is hoping to win the MVP Award despite the late-season collapse of the Red Sox (hey, don’t blame him!). Jose Bautista is hoping his big offensive numbers carry the day even though his team finished 81-81. Curtis Granderson is hoping to win despite a September slump that would leave his .262 batting average as the lowest ever for an MVP hitter. And then there’s Miguel Cabrera, who put up monster numbers in the shadow of his teammate.

Who will win? Nobody knows. Despite a storyline that seemed to focus on him, will a historical bias against pitchers hurt Verlander? There is also a strong historical bias in favor of players on playoff teams, which will help Verlander and Granderson, but work against Ellsbury and Bautista. Will Ellsbury lose some votes to teammates Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia, who also had strong seasons? Here’s how the SweetSpot bloggers voted (14 points for first, nine for second, eight for third, etc.)

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: 296 points (15 first-place votes)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: 256 points (8)
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 177 points
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 131 points (1)
Curtis Granderson, Yankees: 114 points (1)
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: 44 points
Ian Kinsler, Rangers: 26 points
Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox: 23 points
Alex Gordon, Royals: 12 points
Evan Longoria, Rays: 8 points
CC Sabathia: 7 points
Michael Young, Rangers: 6 points

* * * *

Let’s do the center fielders first, since that’s the easiest comparison. Granderson starts with an advantage of nine more home runs (41 to 32), five more triples (10 to 5), three more hit-by-pitches (12 to 9) and 33 more walks (85 to 52). That’s 87 more bases. But Ellsbury had 20 more doubles (46 to 26), 53 more singles (129 to 76) and four fewer double plays hit into (12 to 8). That’s plus-97 bases for Ellsbury. Ellsbury stole 39 bases (caught stealing 15 times) and Granderson stole 25 bases (10 caught stealing), a minor edge for Ellsbury. Granderson used up 463 outs, Ellsbury 479. Run it through the mixer and Baseball-Reference.com estimates that Ellsbury created 139 runs, or 7.8 runs per 27 outs; Granderson created 121 runs, or 7.0 runs per 27 outs. Granderson played in a slightly higher run-scoring environment.

Some more numbers: Ellsbury hit .366/.420/.691 with runners in scoring position, Granderson hit .242/.303/.516. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Ellsbury hit .400, Granderson hit .208. When the score was tied, Ellsbury had a .900 OPS, Granderson .820. No matter how you slice things, I can’t come up with a way that proves Granderson had the better year at the plate. And the deeper you dig, the more you uncover that Ellsbury played his best in clutch situations and close games. Yankees fans may accuse me of bias or being a Red Sox fan, but such is not that case. Ellsbury was the more productive offensive player.

Then you get to the defense. By all accounts, Ellsbury played a better center field in 2011. I’m not sure he deserved his Gold Glove (Austin Jackson and Peter Bourjos were superb), but the defensive metrics also say he was far superior to Granderson.

Look, both were dynamic players, power-speed combinations at an important defensive position. But I think it’s clear that Ellsbury had the superior season. The one caveat in regard to MVP voting, of course, is that Granderson’s team made the playoffs and Ellsbury’s did not. But don’t blame Ellsbury for Boston’s collapse -- he hit .358 with eight home runs in September. But some voters will hold the collapse against him; to me, it's failed logic to say that Ellsbury is less of an MVP candidate because Jonathan Papelbon couldn’t close out a lead on the final night of the season and Dan Johnson hit a home run off Cory Wade.

* * * *

OK, Ellsbury versus Jose Bautista is a little tougher. Bautista starts off with 11 more home runs (43 to 32) and 80 more walks (132 to 52). He had an awesome year at the plate. But Ellsbury had three more triples (5 to 2), 22 more doubles (46 to 24), 43 more singles (129 to 86), three more hit-by-pitches (9 to 6). Both players grounded into eight double plays. Bautista had 25 more bases, although Ellsbury closes that gap with a 39-to-9 edge in stolen bases. The big difference is Ellsbury used up 479 outs and Bautista 375. Run it through the mixer and Baseball-Reference estimates that Bautista created 149 runs, or 10.7 per 27 outs; Ellsbury created 139 runs, or 7.8 per 27 outs. Both guys played in similar run-scoring environments. Given Ellsbury’s production over the same number of outs as Bautista had, he would have created 108 runs, 41 fewer than Bautista.

But Ellsbury did have the advantage of playing nine more games and, since he hit leadoff, receiving more plate appearances (and thus more chances to affect the game). And then we have to factor in defense: Ellsbury is a good center fielder (+6 runs better than average according to Defensive Runs Saved, +15.6 runs by Ultimate Zone Rating), while Bautista rates as a below-average right fielder in both systems (-1 and -8.6), although he did rate well at third base in his limited time there (+6 and +3.8).

If you remember, Bautista was on fire early on, hitting .363 with 20 home runs through May. He slowed down after that, hitting .257 with 12 home runs in 65 games after the All-Star break. His walk rate actually remained consistent throughout the year, so it doesn’t appear that he started chasing pitches, but maybe frustration did set in from not getting a lot of pitches to hit. And for those who think he was part of the sign-stealing allegations that came out, his home/road splits were actually nearly identical: 1.063 OPS at home, 1.047 on the road. Breaking down some of Bautista’s other numbers, one jumps out at me: He hit .307/.523/.760 in “close and late” situations.

It was an impressive season, MVP-worthy.

If you go by WAR (Wins Above Replacement), it’s essentially a dead heat: If we average FanGraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR, Bautista is at 8.4, Ellsbury 8.3.

But I give the edge to Ellsbury. The season-long excellence matters, but so does his combination of playing center field, hitting leadoff and putting up awesome numbers at the plate. He created runs and prevented runs, while playing an important up-the-middle position. If you watched the Red Sox regularly, he was clearly the best player on the team, the dynamo at the top of the order.

* * * *

Obviously, I’m more of a numbers guy. But even I admit: Sometimes we get too caught up in the numbers. In 10 years, in 25 years, when we think of the 2011 season, what will we remember most other than the dramatic World Series and the greatest final day in baseball history? I think we’ll remember Verlander, the year he turned from flamethrower to pitcher, the year he made The Leap, when we began thinking of him as a guy with Hall of Fame potential, a pitcher who could win 300 games and join that inner circle of greatness. Now, maybe all that won’t happen, but that doesn’t mean the 2011 regular season didn’t belong to Justin Verlander. I think if you ask managers and general managers around baseball if they could have one player from the 2011 season, the majority would say Verlander.

Which is why, I admit, I’m conflicted to say that I think Jacoby Ellsbury deserves the 2011 American League MVP Award.

My unofficial ballot:

1. Ellsbury
2. Verlander
3. Bautista
4. Cabrera
5. Granderson
6. Pedroia
7. Robinson Cano
8. Gonzalez
9. Alex Avila
10. Longoria

Five thoughts before tonight's awesome Game 5:

1. Everybody seems to be giving Ivan Nova the big edge over Doug Fister in the pitching matchup, which I don't necessarily understand. Well, I do understand why; In his Game 1 relief appearance/start, Nova pitched 6.1 innings and didn't allow a run until his final inning. I would hardly call it a dominating effort -- he walked four guys and struck out five -- but he kept the runs off the board. While everyone says he won't get rattled, I think the Tigers would be wise to be patient and see if he's getting ahead early in the count. One thing Nova has done well in the second half is keep the ball in the park: After allowing nine home runs total in May and June, he allowed just four over the final three months. The Tigers can't expect to beat him with the long ball tonight. Meanwhile, I expect Fister to pitch much better than his Game 1 outing. As our Yankee blog pointed out, Fister loves to get ahead of hitters; when he gets ahead 0-1, batters hit just .196 against him this season. The Yankees will have to balance their usual patience with perhaps a little more aggressiveness than normal.

2. The biggest boost Nova may get is Jim Leyland's inability to construct a lineup that passes a basic test for common sense. OK, he hits Austin Jackson leadoff. We'll let that one slide, even though Jackson has a poor on-base percentage (.317 on the season). But Leyland is moving Don Kelly into the No. 2 slot, playing third base. Yes, he's 3-for-7 in the series, but his OBP this season was .291, and .285 for his career. Kelly is not a good major league hitter. Batting third is Delmon Young, who has drawn rave reviews since coming to the Tigers. His OBP with Detroit? .298. The rest of the lineup: Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Magglio Ordonez, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Ramon Santiago. It remains a mystery why Leyland wants three guys who do a poor job of getting on base batting in front of the most feared hitter in the American League, and it makes it easier to avoid giving Cabrera much to hit. The Yankee lineup remains unchanged.

3. Leyland has also said Justin Verlander won't pitch tonight. He seems pretty definitive about that, although those things have a way of changing in the middle of the game. As dominant as David Robertson and Mariano Rivera have been at the back end of the bullpen for the Yankees, let's not forget that Joaquin Benoit has been lights-out in the second half (1.13 ERA, .116 batting average allowed), although he did serve up a home run to Curtis Granderson in Game 2. I suspect both managers will use their back-end bullpen duos for nine outs if necessary. If neither starter makes it through six innings, then the middle relief comes into play: the Yankees have Rafael Soriano, the underrated Cory Wade, Boone Logan to face the struggling Alex Avila and maybe CC Sabathia (I still think it's unlikely we see Sabathia, except in an extra-innings scenario); the Tigers have ... well, it will be interesting to see who Leyland trusts right now. Al Albuquerque was better than Ryan Perry during the season, but I suspect we'd see Perry first. Phil Coke is the lefty Leyland could use to face Robinson Cano or Brett Gardner; Mark Teixeira is better from the right side of the plate (.967 OPS versus .779, .940 versus .799 in 2010), so I wouldn't want Coke facing Teixeira.

4. Certainly, the other key guy for Detroit is Avila, hitless in the series after finishing eighth in the AL in OPS during the regular season. Since 2005, three players who hit .290 or higher in the regular season (among qualifiers) went hitless in a Division Series: Bill Mueller (2005 Red Sox), Aramis Ramirez (2007 Cubs) and Chone Figgins (2009 Angels). I won't say it's must for Avila to do something, but they sure could use his lefty bat to pop one.

5. This is just the fifth sudden-death game since 2006. In the previous four, the only starter who failed to last six innings was Daisuke Matsuzaka for the Red Sox in the 2007 ALCS. He went five innings and allowed two runs and got the win anyway. So if recent history is any indication, expect both starters to keep their teams in the game. Nova is the first rookie since Dice-K and just the 13th overall to start a sudden-death game. If you want to go back further, since 2000 there have been 20 such games, with the starting pitchers averaging 5.4 innings per start with a 4.30 ERA and 91 pitches. Of course, that takes us back to a higher-scoring time.

Anyway, let's hope for a tight, drama-filled game and let's admit: It would be fun to see CC and Verlander out there in the 12th inning, wouldn't it?

We have a few days in the regular season, but before we got caught up in the final hours of the wild-card races and playoff previews, here's my 2011 SweetSpot American League All-Star team.

Catcher: Alex Avila, Tigers (.295/.388/.509, 19 HR, 78 RBI). Maybe the most surprising season in the majors this year, considering he hit .228 last year as a rookie. Avila hit .311 in April and other than a one-RBI July, has kept hitting all season. He ranks sixth in the AL in on-base percentage, 12th in slugging and has thrown 32 percent of base stealers.

First base: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.341/.447/.579, 29 HR, 103 RBI, 107 R). Adrian Gonzalez got most of the attention, but it's now clear that Cabrera had the better year with the bat. Cabrera has created more runs, has a higher on-base percentage (thanks to 40 more walks) and a higher slugging percentage. Gonzalez has a few more RBIs, which is strictly a function of having better hitters in front of him. Cabrera is hitting .381 with runners on base and .397 with runners in scoring position.

Second base: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox (.302/.381/.467, 20 HR, 88 RBI, 101 R, 26 SB). Yankee fans will cry foul, but Pedroia's big edge in OBP (.381 to .351) and even bigger edge with the glove, makes him the selection.

Third base: Evan Longoria, Rays (.240/.345/.482, 29 HR, 95 RBI). Longoria has a chance for 100 RBIs despite missing most of April with a strained oblique. While the batting average is down, the power numbers are there and he owns a terrific glove. So does Adrian Beltre, who is also hitting .293 with 30 home runs, but Beltre has the advantage of a hitter-friendly home park; he's hitting .265 on the road and 23 of his 30 home runs have come at home.

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians (.273/.333/.463, 25 HR, 92 RBI). The toughest call on the board as Jhonny Peralta, J.J. Hardy, Yunel Escobar, Alexei Ramirez, Erick Aybar and Elvis Andrus all have their supporters and decent claims to best in the league. Cabrera's defense isn't highly regarded by the advanced metrics, but he had a terrific season at the bat, gives you more on the base paths than Peralta, and hit well with runners in scoring position -- .312/.393/.529.

Outfield: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (.304/.447/.615, 43 HR, 107 RBI, 105 R). Bautista's OPS at home: 1.062. On the road: 1.062.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox (.322/.377/.551, 31 HR, 103 RBI, 117 R, 38 SB). Obviously, nobody saw this coming. A remarkable all-around season, the best by a Red Sox center fielder since Fred Lynn in 1979.

Outfield: Curtis Granderson, Yankees (.266/.368/.561, 41 HR, 119 RBI, 135 runs). He's tailed off in September (.221, three home runs), costing him a chance to become just the third player since World War II to score 150 runs in a season, but he remains in the thick of the MVP discussion.

Designated hitter: David Ortiz, Red Sox (.307/.397/.557, 29 HR, 96 RBI). Michael Young, with his .338 average and 104 RBIs, has been enormously valuable to the Rangers, especially with his ability to fill in at first, second and third bases. But for pure offensive numbers, Ortiz is the guy.

Starting pitcher: Justin Verlander, Tigers (24-5, 2.40 ERA, 251 IP, 174 H, 57 BB, 250 SO). Yes, wins aren't everything, but he had the most wins in the American League since Bob Welch in 1990.

Starting pitcher: Jered Weaver, Angels (18-8, 2.41 ERA, 235.2 IP, 182 H, 56 BB, 198 SO). Here's how he's been: In one less start than Verlander, he's allowed eight fewer runs.

Starting pitcher: James Shields, Rays (15-12, 2.84 ERA, 240.2 IP, 189 H, 62 BB, 221 SO). Brought back the complete game: His 11 were the most in the AL since 1993. Saddled with poor run support, he didn't win a single game all season when he allowed more than two runs.

Starting pitcher: C.J. Wilson, Rangers (16-7, 2.97 ERA, 221.1 IP, 189 H, 72 BB, 206 SO). He hits the free-agent market this winter and general managers would be salivating to see what he could outside of the Ballpark -- he had a 2.34 ERA on the road.

Starting pitcher: CC Sabathia, Yankees (19-8, 3.00 ERA, 237.1 IP, 230 H, 61 BB, 230 SO). The big man may have had his best season. Now the pressure is on to repeat his 2009 postseason performance.

Setup guy: David Robertson, Yankees (4-0, 34 holds, 1.09 ERA). The Yanks paid big bucks for Rafael Soriano in the offseason, but he went down and Robertson never gave up the big hit as Mariano Rivera's setup guy, allowing just nine runs in 66 innings. He gave up just one home run while fanning 99.

Closer: Jose Valverde, Tigers (2-4, 47 saves, 2.30 ERA). Rivera has a lower ERA and better WHIP, but he's blown fives while Valverde was 47-for-47 in save opportunities. It's not always pretty, but he's you can't deny the job he's done.

Player of the Year: Justin Verlander. He leads the AL in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings, WHIP, quality starts, opponents' batting average, opponents' on-base percentage and opponents' slugging percentage. He's been the most electrifying performer in the league. More than any other player in the AL, it's been his season.

With their 3-1 win over the A’s Friday night, the Tigers clinched their first division title since 1987, and their first AL Central title ever. That ended a 24-year run without a division crown, which, per ESPN Stats & Info, had been the fourth-longest active drought in the major leagues.* Before anyone brings up their pennant in 2006, remember, that came when the Tigers won the wild card -- proof positive that the AL East doesn’t hold the mortgage on Bud Selig’s extra playoff team -- so that’s not the same thing.

As events go, the Tigers winning is something that should warm the hearts of Kitties fans old and new. It can reassure those who remember 2009’s near-miss and exit via a one-game tiebreaker with the Twins, or those whose memories stretch further back, say to the desperate run of 1991, when Sparky Anderson almost managed to drag a pitching-light team of slow sluggers and aging greats to a surprise playoff berth.

Thinking of the late, great skipper of Tigers and Reds fame is easy when you consider the Tigers’ current skipper: Jim Leyland. With another entry into October’s action, Leyland gets another chance to join Sparky in a fairly small group. Anderson was the first manager to win World Series titles in each league, and it’s an accomplishment only Tony La Russa has since matched. Leyland had his first shot at achieving the feat in 2006 -- only to see La Russa get there first when his Cards beat the Tigers. Strangely enough, Anderson also achieved the honor in 1984 by beating a team with a manager making his own bid for this exclusive club, the late Dick Williams of the Padres.

Can Leyland’s team put Leyland over the top this time around? It’s easy to identify the reasons they could, because this isn’t the same team people were talking about a few months ago. Earlier this season, Detroit was a team that made you wonder whether its obvious strengths could overcome its equally glaring weaknesses. The rotation was Justin Verlander and four days of praying for rain, fog or midges. The bullpen was Jose Valverde and a relatively anonymous collection of maybes -- or maybe-nots. The lineup was split sharply between All-Star hammers such as Miguel Cabrera and Alex Avila and next to no offensive production from four different slots.

But that was in July, and GM Dave Dombrowski didn’t sit still and let it ride, making a series of deals for second-tier talents to shore up a team that already had the A-list on board. Doug Fister gets and deserves the most attention, and will continue to after starting the Tigers’ clincher Friday, but adding Wilson Betemit to platoon at third and Delmon Young to start in left has helped too. Not everything has worked -- early-season stat-head fave David Pauley has struggled since being added to the 'pen -- but no GM is going to see everything he touches turn to gold.

The outcome has been dramatic. The Tigers kicked into a higher gear, as they’ve raced out to a 39-20 record since the All-Star break. They're scoring 5.2 runs per game in the second half, a clip that stands up to the league-leading offenses in Boston, New York and Texas. The lineup’s questions have been reduced to sorting out who to use at second base and in right field, but sharing the keystone between Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn has the pair both delivering OPS marks above .900 since the break.

The pitching is also now very different. Verlander’s bid for multiple awards is still going strong, but with Fister tossing seven quality starts in his nine Tiger turns and Max Scherzer sporting a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the second half, picking a postseason rotation has become much easier. And the bullpen has been exceptional since the break, posting a 2.89 ERA and a collective .630 OPS after producing first-half marks of 4.68 and .755. Adding Phil Coke back to the bullpen to join Dan Schlereth has given Leyland a pair of power lefties, which has let the manager pick his spots with Joaquin Benoit, and suddenly Valverde’s a closer with plenty of effective help.

So the Tigers can settle in and celebrate their win, going into October a much stronger team than it was just a few months ago. It’s a credit to Dombrowski for improving it on the fly, to Leyland for adapting and to the players themselves for making this club something more than a stars-and-scrubs squad. Whether that’s a formula that will give Leyland a second shot at dugout history remains to be seen, but it’ll be something well worth watching.

*: Once the Brewers clinch -- or if, should one be a nervous Nellie about these things -- their first-ever NL Central title, they’ll end another one of these long streaks, in their case a 29-year run since their AL East crown in 1982. That will leave the Royals’ agonizing 26-year stretch and the hapless Expos-Nats’ 43-year run without ever winning a title -- the entire length of their existence.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Hypothetical: There's a major league catcher draft and you have the No. 1 pick; which catcher should you take? For the sake of this discussion, let's say you're drafting a team of current big league players and will draft only one position per round to field a team for the next five years. You have the first pick in the catchers' round. The guy you should take is Detroit's Alex Avila.

Avila has been the best catcher in baseball this season. Among the game's everyday catchers -- let's say those who have started more than 100 games behind the plate -- Avila leads the majors with a .300 batting average, .391 on-base percentage, .522 slugging percentage and .913 OPS. He's No. 1 across the board. Remember, this hypothetical applies to catching actual games, not your fantasy league team, so forget about Victor Martinez or Mike Napoli -- the guy you draft has to actually crouch down and catch for you every day. Avila has done exactly that for the Tigers.

Avila has started 117 games behind the plate and has been remarkably durable. From July 3 through last Saturday, Avila started 57 of 61 games with Detroit going 37-20 in those Avila starts. Only the Diamondbacks' Miguel Montero and the Marlins' John Buck have caught more innings than Avila's 1,043. The fact that Avila has been at his best while the Tigers have pulled away from the AL Central field is not a coincidence. Avila has hit safely in 28 of his past 35 games, batting .358 with 11 doubles, eight home runs and 24 RBIs. He's reached base safely in 33 of those 35 games. Somehow, the daily grind of catching nearly every day seems to have fueled Avila's offensive production rather than drained it.

Avila is only 24 years old and turns 25 in January. He's nearly one year younger than Baltimore's Matt Wieters and has arguably moved ahead of Wieters among baseball's young catchers, although Wieters has quietly put together a promising season. Yes, there are other good candidates to consider with your top pick in the catchers draft and the offensive numbers say Avila's other two closest competitors are Montero and Atlanta's Brian McCann. If you then factor in the defensive numbers as well, here's a look at how the top four stack up (SB and CS are defensive stolen bases allowed and runner caught, while DRS is Defensive Runs Saved, via Baseball Info Solutions):



What about the rest of the contenders? Yes, Yadier Molina and Carlos Ruiz are outstanding catchers, particularly defensively. Avila is younger than both those players and gives you more offensive bang for your buck. Yes, that description would seem to apply to both Joe Mauer and Buster Posey, but consider this: How much do you really want your team's offense to depend on your catcher? In other words, can your catcher be too good a hitter?

That notion might seem ludicrous but look at the situation both the Twins and Giants were placed this year. Mauer began the season as a .327 career hitter with three batting titles and an MVP trophy. This year, Minnesota began paying Mauer $23 million per season and will do so through 2018. Mauer has hit just three home runs and already at age 28 the idea of him playing as the Twins' everyday catcher through the life of that contract seems impossible. Can the offense depend too much on a catcher? Ask the Giants. Players who hit at the level of Mauer or Posey very early in their careers demand significant investments if their franchises are going to keep them, perhaps too big an investment considering the dangers of the position. The argument can be made that you want your catcher to produce, but not so much that he leaves a gaping offensive void that cannot be adequately filled should he either face serious injury or wear down from the catching workload.

There are offensive players who can occasionally catch, such as Martinez and Napoli. There are young hitters who catch now but might soon find other permanent positions because their bats are too critical to expose to injury like Posey or Cleveland's Carlos Santana. Some teams get production from the catching position using a combination of players, like Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek in Boston. Some catchers are known best as glove men, like Molina and Ruiz. However, when you consider youth, durability and production both offensively and defensively, Avila would be hard to pass up with the top pick in a catchers draft.

Follow Steve Berthiaume on Twitter @SBerthiaumeESPN.

It seems as if many of the division races are already all but over. However, the American League Central is an exception. Going into Friday’s game, the surprising Cleveland Indians trailed Detroit by only 1.5 games, with nine games remaining between the two teams.

Detroit’s rotation appeared to be a strength headed into this year, but outside of Justin Verlander, it has been shaky. Max Scherzer has fine peripherals but also an ERA around 4.30 in an offensively depressed environment. Instead of starting pitching, the Tigers are getting by on their offense. Their team wOBA of .328 is fourth best in the AL, behind only the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers.

The Indians are in a few ways the opposite of that formula. Their .312 wOBA is just below league average, and it hasn’t been helped by injuries. They’ve stayed in the race due to pitching. In the rotation, Justin Masterson has been fantastic, and Josh Tomlin has been solid behind him.

Friday night’s game ended up being a pitchers’ duel. Tomlin held the Tigers hitless through the first two innings, and when a baserunner did reach, he was erased by a fly-out double play. Entering the bottom of the sixth, the Tigers had only two hits. The Indians had three runners in scoring position through their first six innings but could not cash in any of them. The deadlock was finally broken in the bottom of the sixth when Austin Jackson homered with a man on base to give Detroit a 2-0 lead.

Jackson is a funny case. He came to Detroit from the Yankees’ farm system as part of the big trade that put Curtis Granderson in New York and Ian Kennedy in Arizona, and sent Jackson and Scherzer to Detroit. In 2010, Jackson began the year as Detroit’s starting center fielder and leadoff man. He started off blazing hot by hitting .364/.422/.495 (BA/OBP/SLG) in April of that year, buoyed by a BABIP over .500. Although his BABIP never went below .320 for any individual month -- and with a player who has Jackson’s speed, you probably wouldn’t expect it to -- it never reached close to that level again, and his other months were not even close to being as productive as his April.

Still, first impressions stick. Jackson ended up with a solid .333 wOBA while contributing very good defense, and he came in second in the 2010 rookie of the year voting. Scherzer was great for Detroit as well, while Granderson didn’t quite live up to the lofty expectations set for him in New York and Kennedy did not initially stand out in Arizona. In the first go-round, it looked like Detroit was the clear winner of the trade.

Then we got to this season. While Detroit’s offense has been its strength, its leadoff hitter, Jackson, has not been a big part of that attack. This April, his OPS (.509) was lower than his April 2010 BABIP (.530). He has been far better since then, but he still has a wOBA of only .300, good for an 86 wRC+ and a .311 OBP. His strikeout rate is incredibly high. And Scherzer has struggled a bit. Meanwhile Granderson is an MVP candidate, and Kennedy anchors the Arizona rotation, so this year Detroit looks like the loser of that trade.

Many trades take a long time to evaluate. Take Cleveland’s Ubaldo Jimenez trade; maybe he takes the Indians to the World Series, while all the prospects they traded fall apart. Or maybe he gets hurt while the prospects thrive with the Rockies. Maybe it’s not that clear cut, and Ubaldo helps the Indians compete while some of the prospects work out and others don’t. Next year the Tigers/Yankees/Diamondbacks deal might look wildly different.

As for Detroit’s other part of the Jackson trade, Scherzer excelled Friday. Through seven innings, he gave up just six hits and one run, striking out six. Still, it was just 2-1 when Tomlin came back out for the seventh inning, and he got the first two outs with little issue before giving up back-to-back home runs to Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta.

Both Avila and Peralta are massive parts of Detroit’s sneaky-good offense. Avila, coming off a .297 wOBA 2010, has a .382 wOBA this year as the Tigers’ primary catcher, while Peralta’s wOBA is .370 while he plays for them as a shortstop. Although Tomlin gave up only six hits and no walks over 6 2/3 innings, three of those hits left the park and he struck out only two. Joaquin Benoit has had his bad patches in 2011, but he contributed a clean inning before Jose Valverde cashed in the save opportunity to seal the 4-1 win for the Tigers.

The AL Central is in no way decided by one game, but a sweep either way would be a big deal. Jackson and Scherzer provided the difference in a big way Friday night, along with two unexpected cornerstones of the Tigers' offense. They might be in a terrible division with a negative run differential, but with Verlander, they will hardly be a playoff pushover if they get there. Friday night was a big part in inching them just a little closer.

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Bexy is a writer at You Can't Predict Baseball and an occasional contributor to It's About the Money. Follow her on Twitter at @rebexarama.

Wednesday night's Tigers lineup, including each player's on-base percentage.

Andy Dirks, .301
Brennan Boesch, .346
Delmon Young, .309
Miguel Cabrera, .427
Victor Martinez, .375
Alex Avila, .391
Jhonny Peralta, .356

You can use whatever metric you prefer -- wOBA or true average or EqA. No matter how you slice it, Detroit's best hitters have been, in order: Cabrera, Avila, Peralta, Martinez, Boesch and then a big drop to Dirks and regular leadoff hitter Austin Jackson. So with several good lineup options, Jim Leyland has instead chosen to bat two players with poor on-base percentages in front of his best hitter. And he continues to bat his second- and third-best hitters sixth and seventh.

As we've mentioned before, batting order isn't that important; but it has some importance, even if it's just 10 runs over the course of a season. Guys lower in the batting order do receive fewer at-bats and that adds up over a season. Take last night: the Tigers lost 6-5, and Peralta received one fewer plate appearance than the inferior Dirks and Young. Would that one plate appearance have made a difference?

Look at where the Tigers rank in the AL in OBP by batting order position:

No. 1: 11th (.306)
No. 2: 10th (.318)
No. 3: 13th (.323)
No. 4: 1st (.426)
No. 5: 6th (.342)
No. 6: 1st (.350)
No. 7: 2nd (.326)
No. 8: 5th (.323)
No. 9: 11th (.278)

The Tigers continue to have some of the worst production in the league from the top three positions. Young, owner of a .323 career OBP, is not the solution. Jackson does not get on base enough to warrant batting leadoff on a playoff contender. Speed is nice, but getting on base is nicer.

An impartial observer might take a snapshot of the American League Central and conclude that the race is an exercise in wheel-spinning. But that’s not entirely correct: The four teams at the top just have no idea if they’re coming or going.

The Twins were treated to a combination wedgie and noogie in a 20-6 loss to Texas on Monday and are now 47-55. But they seem strangely resistant to entertaining offers for free agent-to-be Michael Cuddyer, a solid righty bat, terrific clubhouse guy and crafty situational reliever in blowouts who might net them a decent prospect haul in return. It’s nice to be loyal and cling to hope based on some recent fast finishes, but you have to wonder if Twins general manager Bill Smith is missing an opportunity to capitalize on a valuable asset here.

The Indians, who beat the Angels 3-2 on a walk-off single by rookie second baseman Jason Kipnis, have an AL Central-best run differential of plus-2. They began the season at 30-15, but injuries to Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore and an overall lack of lineup depth have stalled their momentum and left fans wondering when the magic ends and the reality check begins. Meanwhile, GM Chris Antonetti continues to look for a bat on a limited budget.

The White Sox, the American League’s answer to the enigmatic Reds, are always a stinker away from an Ozzie Guillen expletive-fest. And general manager Kenny Williams, a guy who lives to make waves at the trade deadline, seems genuinely conflicted. Amid rumors that he’s talking to St. Louis about a deal for young outfielder Colby Rasmus, Williams appeared on ESPN Radio in Chicago and said he might “turn over the entire roster’’ if the White Sox don’t make a move here shortly.

That leaves us with the division leaders in Detroit, where Justin Verlander might or might not have enough help in the rotation to get the Tigers to the postseason, and GM David Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland might or might not be on the spot with owner Mike Illitch in the final year of their contracts.

It was only fitting that when the Tigers and White Sox met in a big AL Central showdown Monday night at U.S. Celluar Field, all the division’s warts were on display. Between home runs by Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, the Chicago crowd was treated to botched pop flies, a muffed pickoff, a near-collision between Juan Pierre and Alex Rios in the outfield and a wild pitch that careened off Pierzynski’s shinguard and was turned into an out at second base by reliever Jesse Crain.

The Tigers ran out four pitchers -- Duane Below, Chance Ruffin, Charlie Furbush and David Purcey -- with a combined 215 2/3 innings in the big leagues. The vast majority of those belong to Purcey. And White Sox starter Mark Buehrle, miracle of miracles, actually issued a leadoff walk in the fifth inning.

Is this any way to run a pennant race?

Take an informal survey of people in baseball front offices, and their predictions for the division generally fall along the same lines. Just about everyone favors Chicago’s pitching staff, but the White Sox are going to have a hard time winning if Adam Dunn (.159 batting average) and Rios (.301 slugging percentage, 23 RBIs) continue to look this pathetic at the plate. If Dunn plans to hit .200 this season, he better have some Ted Williams-caliber mashing in store for August and September.

Offensively, the Tigers win the Best in Show award. Detroit ranks fifth in the league in runs scored, and Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch and Victor Martinez all have an OPS north of .800.

The Tigers have been trolling for a front-end starter. But with Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields pretty much un-acquirable, they might have to stand pat or settle for a back-end guy to complement their top four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Brad Penny.

It could be worse: Scherzer, although up-and-down this season, has generated a swing-and-miss percentage of 9.3 -- better than Matt Cain, Jered Weaver and David Price. And Porcello has quietly gone 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA in July. He’s still 22 years old, remember?

In a race this chaotic, the schedule can make a difference. While the Tigers are finished playing Boston and New York this season, the White Sox welcome the Red Sox and Yankees to Chicago for seven games starting Wednesday. As for the feisty Indians, they have 10 games against Boston, Texas and Detroit in early August. That’s their sink-or-swim stretch.

“It’s a weak division,’’ said a National League personnel man, “but I’ve liked the Tigers all year. Never underestimate a team with a good offense and an ace [starter]. You just don’t have long losing streaks.’’

And who cares about labels? Dunn can’t step to the plate these days without another out-of-town broadcaster referring to him as “the struggling Adam Dunn.’’ But as he told Yahoo! Sports in a recent interview, he still enjoys playing, “Even though I suck.’’

Say this for the Big Donkey: He’s come to the right place.

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